1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We've ignored 11 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:49,960 Speaker 2: FX a little bit, and that's when you go to 12 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 2: the forest. Jane Foley joins from Rabobank in London. Just 13 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 2: wonderful and as synthesis a foreign exchange. Jane, there seems 14 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 2: to be not an outlier call, but a belief of 15 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 2: for few that the euro must weaken, which I believe 16 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 2: means a dollar will be resilient or stronger. Is a 17 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 2: dollar broken? Is it now on a vector that is weaker? 18 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 3: You know, I don't think the dollar is broken. Certainly, 19 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 3: we've got to get through the next few months. We've 20 00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 3: got to get through how many interest rate cuts the 21 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 3: FED is going to do. We've got to get our 22 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:26,960 Speaker 3: heads around that. And of course the US election too, 23 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 3: which will obviously have a big influence on the US dollar. 24 00:01:30,080 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 3: But you know, if you listen yesterday to Dragy speech, now, 25 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:37,120 Speaker 3: he of course had published this paper yesterday which was 26 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 3: commissioned by the European Commission to really address some of 27 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 3: the structural issues that Europe was facing, and he was 28 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 3: talking about the need for Europe to find new investment 29 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 3: with eight hundred billion euros every year to match really 30 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 3: the growth prospects of both China and the US. If 31 00:01:56,760 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 3: you look at a chart of productivity, for instance, over 32 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 3: the last few years, you see US productivity so much 33 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:05,840 Speaker 3: higher than that of most of the other G ten 34 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:09,839 Speaker 3: So the US fundamentals in that respect, in terms of productivity, 35 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 3: in terms of growth are certainly still stronger than the 36 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:15,960 Speaker 3: Europe And you know, from that point of view, I 37 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 3: would say one of the biggest surprises in the FX 38 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:21,639 Speaker 3: market this year is the fact that the euro has 39 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 3: managed to it's sort of vying with the dollar for 40 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 3: position of second best performing G ten currency in the 41 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 3: year to date. Despite Germany's economic waves, despite the movement 42 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 3: of the far right in European politics, and despite you know, 43 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 3: all of these budget issues, particularly that. 44 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:42,760 Speaker 4: Of France, Jane. Here in the US, it's a very 45 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 4: political environment. It's a political year, election year. We've got 46 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 4: a big debate tonight. Does a foreign exchange market how 47 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 4: does a foreign exchange market discount kind of just politics 48 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:54,799 Speaker 4: here in the US. 49 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,080 Speaker 3: Well, I mean, obviously, you know, foreign exchange as at 50 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 3: prices can only move in a binary way, so it 51 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 3: therefore tends to simplify, you know, politics down to you know, 52 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:07,760 Speaker 3: is it a buyer, is it a sell and what 53 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:09,839 Speaker 3: it's done. And I think we saw this very much 54 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:14,520 Speaker 3: in June after that TV debate between Biden and Trump, 55 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 3: very much, you know, the Trump trade that people put 56 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:18,880 Speaker 3: in on bets say, oh, you know, it looks like 57 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 3: Trump will win this election, and therefore, what are the 58 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 3: sort of policies that we might have from Trump? But 59 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 3: they're going to be a bit more fiscal stimulus. We 60 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:28,080 Speaker 3: are going to potentially have more tariffs, and that of 61 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:30,520 Speaker 3: course meant for the dollar. Well, if we were going 62 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 3: to have more stimulus, if we were going to have 63 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 3: more more terrorists, there's going to be more inflation and 64 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 3: therefore the prospects of less fed easy than we would 65 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 3: have otherwise. Now, of course, over the last seven weeks 66 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 3: or so, we've seen Harris, you know, really bring some 67 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 3: fresh momentum into the Democratic bidden and that I think 68 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 3: is why the FX market will be watching tonight will 69 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 3: she be able to sustain or build on that momentum 70 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 3: or not. And I think it's going to be really 71 00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 3: interesting to see if she does build on that mentum, 72 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:03,080 Speaker 3: whether or not some of these Trump trays begin to 73 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 3: know further fizzle out. 74 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:09,120 Speaker 4: So, Jane, I'm looking at the pound sterling here of 75 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 4: about five percent over the last year or so. Here 76 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 4: is that sustainable? Here? For the sterling here, I mean, 77 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 4: you've got a budget coming up, talk to us about sterling. 78 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 3: Well, you know, Sterling is the best performing G ten 79 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:25,160 Speaker 3: currency in the year to date, and it was the 80 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 3: second best perfoming G ten currency. 81 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 2: You know, I still say coronation of King Charles Jane Foley. 82 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:43,560 Speaker 3: Strong Sterling, the Irish Jane Foley. So so it is, 83 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 3: you know, it has performed well. But what I would 84 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:47,679 Speaker 3: say is that it's it's not really a strong currency, 85 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 3: not if you look at long term averages and I 86 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 3: think we've got What we've got to remember is back 87 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:56,520 Speaker 3: in September twenty twenty two, cable was at the lowest 88 00:04:56,600 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 3: rate ever and that was on the back of the 89 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:01,360 Speaker 3: lizt Trust mini budget. And we also saw in September 90 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:04,839 Speaker 3: twenty two, twenty two, you're Sterling really leap higher on 91 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 3: the back of that budget. So what we're seeing, I 92 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 3: think since then, is Sterling slowly regaining its composure, slowly 93 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 3: regaining its poise. It's not strong yet, but it is stronger. 94 00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:18,040 Speaker 3: And I think that the mini budget will certainly be 95 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 3: a hurdle as to whether or not an investor sentiment 96 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 3: can remain positive as it has done in the last 97 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:24,120 Speaker 3: few months. 98 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:27,159 Speaker 2: So what is the bet. Forget about the speculation, the 99 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 2: trying to make you know two big figures on Weikier 100 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:36,120 Speaker 2: or that what is your foreign exchange? Not investment. It's 101 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:41,359 Speaker 2: always a speculation, But ninety day six months trade. 102 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 3: Jane Fowley, I still think the yen has got further 103 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:47,239 Speaker 3: to go. I mean, I think the Bank of Japan 104 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 3: meeting and September the nineteenth, this isn't going to be 105 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 3: about September the nineteenth. It's going to be is October 106 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 3: in play for a Bank of Japan interest rate high, 107 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 3: and certainly if October is not in play, well yeah, 108 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:01,360 Speaker 3: I think December we're going to see another interest rate hike. 109 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 3: So I think the yen can make an awful lot 110 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 3: of ground. I think if we look back in two 111 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 3: years time, we'll still see the yen at these sorts 112 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:10,919 Speaker 3: of levels as being cheap. And the budget for the 113 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:13,360 Speaker 3: UK I think is going to be instrumental too, because 114 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 3: are we going to look back in two years time 115 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 3: and think, yeah, you know what, sterling was still cheap 116 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:19,720 Speaker 3: two years ago, or actually, is this budget going to 117 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:21,839 Speaker 3: make us recognize that all of the problems that we 118 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 3: still have in the UK economy? 119 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 2: So I'm strong yen you can frame out one forty 120 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:30,040 Speaker 2: fifty down to whatever I get that. Where's a one 121 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 2: thirty sterling? Can you frame out one forty one fifty sterling? 122 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:38,720 Speaker 2: The ascension of the United Kingdom and Irish experiment? 123 00:06:41,000 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 3: Well, you know, I think for sterling to get back 124 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 3: to one forty, we would have to see more better 125 00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:49,720 Speaker 3: news on growth, and now this year we've had, you know, 126 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 3: better than expected. Where do we been okay in terms of 127 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 3: the UK economy, in terms of growth, but there's an 128 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:57,359 Speaker 3: awful lot of headwinds, particularly in terms of the debt 129 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:01,360 Speaker 3: that Starmer, the Prime Minister, wants to see debta about 130 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:04,360 Speaker 3: two and a half percent. Now, that would be exceptionally 131 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:08,840 Speaker 3: strong given the UK's recent record, so no one's really 132 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:11,240 Speaker 3: anticipating that. But if you can get you know, closer 133 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 3: to two percent, I think Sterling could see that. But 134 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 3: there's a lot of if, some butts in order to 135 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 3: get from A to B, and I think we would 136 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 3: need some more positive relationships with Europe, which Starmer does 137 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 3: want to create. We'd have to see investment coming back 138 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 3: into UK stocks. We'd have to see you know, the 139 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 3: government tax policy, which is what the budget course is 140 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 3: going to be all about, not you know, throwing investors' 141 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 3: attitudes away. How much more is it going to be 142 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 3: on capital gains tax for instance. So there's a lot 143 00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:46,120 Speaker 3: to play for right now, and I at least that 144 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:48,960 Speaker 3: the new government does understand that. But in center respects, 145 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 3: the Chancellor has got our hands tied behind her back 146 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:53,960 Speaker 3: because the fiscal situation in the UK is looking really 147 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 3: quite poor. 148 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 2: Fascinating Jane Foley, thank you so much. Always informative with 149 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:12,840 Speaker 2: Rabobank there. This is a joy. There is no one 150 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 2: from sea to shining sea in academics who's actually done it. 151 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 2: Jennifer Lawless joins from UVA out of Union. The way 152 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 2: you get into Union colleges, you spelled Schenectady boom. You're 153 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 2: in a Professor Lawless, thank you so much for joining us. 154 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 2: What separates you from every other academic out there? Because 155 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:38,240 Speaker 2: you actually ran for a congressional district. You lost? But 156 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 2: what's the difference in Jennifer Lawless versus all the other 157 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 2: blathering academics. 158 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 5: Well, I wouldn't say most of them are blathering, some 159 00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 5: for sure, But I did run for Congress in two 160 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 5: thousand and six, so I think I have a little 161 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 5: bit of a different kind of understanding of what actually 162 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 5: goes into campaigns and elections. 163 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 2: You are one of three or four people, seriously who 164 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 2: can answer the question I get all the time, why 165 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 2: is America still not voted for a female president? Just 166 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:12,079 Speaker 2: synthesize that across your work at Stanford at UVA. 167 00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 5: The real answer is that there just haven't been enough 168 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:17,760 Speaker 5: female candidates to do it. So, first of all, it 169 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 5: is important to remember that Hillary Clinton received more popular 170 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:24,559 Speaker 5: votes than Donald Trump, did, so it's not that Americans 171 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 5: aren't willing to vote for a woman. 172 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 3: Now. 173 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 5: Obviously, we elect our president through the electoral college, so 174 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 5: winning the popular vote didn't matter, but public opinion was 175 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 5: on her side. But that's really been the only opportunity 176 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 5: that the American people have had until heading into election 177 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 5: day this year, to cast a ballot for a female president. 178 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 5: When it comes to Congress, when it comes to state legislatures, 179 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 5: gubernatorial elections, women do just as well as men. 180 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 6: The key is that they need to run in the 181 00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:50,200 Speaker 6: first place. 182 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:55,520 Speaker 4: Professor, how important is tonight for both of these candidates. 183 00:09:57,000 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 6: It's important. 184 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 5: I don't think it's deal breaking important the way that 185 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:03,000 Speaker 5: the June twenty seventh debate was for Trump ra Biden. 186 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 6: But it's probably their only debate. 187 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 5: It's the first time that they'll meet each other and 188 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:10,240 Speaker 5: that the American people will see them meet each other, 189 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,560 Speaker 5: and it's their opportunity not only to define themselves, but 190 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 5: try to define their opponents to both voters and the 191 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 5: global stage. 192 00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:23,360 Speaker 4: So I guess one of the issues here for Vice 193 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:26,120 Speaker 4: President Harris is to try to introduce yourself a little 194 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:29,080 Speaker 4: bit and her policies and her outlook to the American public. 195 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:33,240 Speaker 4: How would you coach her about how to approach this evening? 196 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 5: I think the most important thing she needs to do 197 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:39,959 Speaker 5: is to talk decide which policies she wants to embrace 198 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 5: from the Biden administration. And those will likely be the 199 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:45,000 Speaker 5: ones that have been working and which that she'd like 200 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:47,079 Speaker 5: to distance herself from a little and those will be 201 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 5: the ones that still need a degree of help. So 202 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:54,439 Speaker 5: I can imagine her embracing her record on reproductive rights 203 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:56,680 Speaker 5: what the Biden administration has tried to do in a 204 00:10:56,679 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 5: post Dods world. I can also imagine her putting forward 205 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:03,080 Speaker 5: some new ideas when it comes to inflation, when it 206 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:05,680 Speaker 5: comes to prices, when it comes to the border, because 207 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:07,880 Speaker 5: people are not satisfied with the way that the Biden 208 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:10,800 Speaker 5: administration has handled those issues. So it's a tough needle 209 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:14,560 Speaker 5: to pread because she wants to achieve success and distance 210 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 5: herself at the same time. 211 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 2: Is this the moment I guess former President Trump moving 212 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 2: to the middle? Maybe is it going to happen just 213 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 2: based off everything he's said over the last ninety days, 214 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 2: But is this where she moves to the middle, where 215 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 2: she signals I'm like Reagan, I got to get nominated 216 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:36,440 Speaker 2: by being a conservative, but now, like Clinton, frankly, I 217 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 2: moved to the middle. Is this evening where it happens. 218 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:42,840 Speaker 5: I'm not sure that she's going to move to the 219 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:46,320 Speaker 5: middle because she's already been perceived as flip flopping on 220 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:48,680 Speaker 5: a lot of issues. So I think what she needs 221 00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:51,440 Speaker 5: to do is demonstrate that she has a set of 222 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,920 Speaker 5: policy proposals that will work for people in the middle, 223 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:58,880 Speaker 5: even though she ultimately is a Democratic liberal. 224 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:03,079 Speaker 2: But Professor, does policy proposals get you elected? 225 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 6: They don't. They but not having them can cost you 226 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:08,560 Speaker 6: an election. 227 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 5: So the nuances of her border policy are not going 228 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 5: to be what wins the election, But for every single 229 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:18,079 Speaker 5: day that the Republicans and the Trump and the Trump 230 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 5: campaign can bash her for not having a clear border 231 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:25,080 Speaker 5: policy could hurt. So it's difficult. People don't vote on 232 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:28,280 Speaker 5: policy nuance, but they're turned off when there seems to 233 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:29,439 Speaker 5: be a lack of detail. 234 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 4: So on the other side of the aisle, Professor way, 235 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:39,160 Speaker 4: former President Trump, any guidance you would provide that campaign 236 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:40,199 Speaker 4: for this evening. 237 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 5: You know this is going to be about discipline versus policy. 238 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,559 Speaker 5: Kamala Harris has to demonstrate that she has policy chops, 239 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:49,480 Speaker 5: which is a little bit ironic given that she's been 240 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:52,640 Speaker 5: the vice president and Donald Trump needs to demonstrate that 241 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:55,479 Speaker 5: he can make it through ninety minutes without coming undone. 242 00:12:55,559 --> 00:12:58,959 Speaker 5: Those are not comparable bars, but they might be equally 243 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 5: difficult to achieve both candidates. 244 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 2: David Gerrow was just with us. He'll join us folks 245 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:06,439 Speaker 2: here in thirty five man It's professor Lawlis David Gerrow 246 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 2: talked about the sterility of the debate versus others where 247 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:15,160 Speaker 2: there's an audience. Does the sterility benefit either of these candidates? 248 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 5: Donald Trump plays to an audience, so it's not his 249 00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 5: ideal situation. But Kamala Harris likes to prosecute, and so 250 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:28,160 Speaker 5: even though the sterility of the debate might not hurt her, 251 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:31,160 Speaker 5: the muted mikes might. So she's not going to be 252 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 5: able to fact check him in real time. She's not 253 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 5: going to be able to ask direct questions the same 254 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 5: way that he's not going to be able to get 255 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:39,319 Speaker 5: energy from an audience. 256 00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 2: Professor, thank you so much, really appreciate this. Let's do 257 00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 2: this again. Jennifer Lawless UVA just truly excellent on the 258 00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 2: female effort across America in politics. Her major theme is 259 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 2: the ambition of more women getting into the process and 260 00:13:56,679 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 2: doing more and such. Lucky to get him on because 261 00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 2: he's interviewing to be defensive coach at University of Michigan football. 262 00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 2: After what happened with Texas the other day, Mark German 263 00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:16,080 Speaker 2: joins us. Mark German definitive on Apple. Mark, tell me 264 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 2: the relationship of the frenzy I see from T Mobile, 265 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:26,960 Speaker 2: Verizon in at and T to sell one thy twelve hundred, 266 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 2: fourteen hundred iPhones. Is that why Tim Cook smiling because 267 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:34,200 Speaker 2: he knows the wireless companies are going to sell these 268 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:35,600 Speaker 2: things regardless. 269 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 1: Wireless companies indeed are going to sell these things regardless. 270 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 2: Tom. 271 00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 1: I mean, despite the fact that these are iterative updates, 272 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:46,560 Speaker 1: you have one pent up demand from priority years people 273 00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 1: who didn't upgrade, and the Apple brand is really truly 274 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 1: as strong as ever, right, So despite the fact you're 275 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 1: not seeing a lot of changes here, people are going 276 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 1: to buy these new phones anyways. People are excited about them. 277 00:14:57,760 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: People like the new colors, people like the new camera feature. 278 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 1: So you know, for Apple, despite them doing very little, 279 00:15:03,360 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 1: it's always an exciting time in every September. 280 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:09,120 Speaker 2: You're not doing by hold sell but what's your vector 281 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 2: on the so called service business, Paul? This is where 282 00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 2: if you have optene children, these two dollars four dollars 283 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 2: twelve dollars things hit your checking account. Ye, Mark, the 284 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 2: services take off with these new toys. 285 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 1: I think services continues to expand, right. I mean the 286 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:31,600 Speaker 1: services business is interesting because at some point you're going 287 00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 1: to see Apple move to a more AI infused search engine. 288 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 1: At some point, this Google deal that generates about eighteen 289 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 1: to twenty two billion a year from them is going 290 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 1: to fall off a cliff because regulators are seriously investigating it. 291 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 1: So that's hanging in the balance right now. If you're 292 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:48,880 Speaker 1: going to see a little bit probably, but at some 293 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 1: point when they switch to an AI based search engine, 294 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 1: deeper integration with Chad GPT to replace Google, a new 295 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:58,280 Speaker 1: deal with Google Gemini to replace Google Search Gemini being 296 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:02,200 Speaker 1: Google's AI service, You're probably going to see things rebound, right, 297 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:05,120 Speaker 1: And so I am optimistic long term about the company's 298 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 1: services business. The one thing I will say, though, is 299 00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:10,520 Speaker 1: when was the last time you downloaded an app? 300 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 2: Right? 301 00:16:11,560 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 1: So the app paradigm where people download apps and Apple 302 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:17,960 Speaker 1: takes a commission from there, that's sort of dwindling. The 303 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:21,760 Speaker 1: industry has moved to more of a services and subscription 304 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 1: model right where people are paying monthly for these things, 305 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 1: and that makes this especially more lucrative for the company. 306 00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 1: They're not making money off of the app downloads anymore. 307 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:34,200 Speaker 1: They're making money off people subscribing to in app purchases. 308 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 4: Interesting. So mark the other piece of major news for 309 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 4: Apple today and Google. Apple loses EU top court case 310 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 4: over thirteen billion euros in terms of a tax bill. 311 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 4: How important is this to the company and it or 312 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:53,120 Speaker 4: is it just one more of these regulatory headwinds at 313 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:54,000 Speaker 4: this company's faces. 314 00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:58,480 Speaker 1: Apple is a very pr and marketing driven company, right, 315 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 1: and so for them, this is some thing that is 316 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:02,640 Speaker 1: not great news. But they're going to do everything they 317 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 1: can to sort of sweep it under the rug. And 318 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 1: so here's what they're going to do. This is not 319 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:09,680 Speaker 1: going to impact you know, the Apple revenue number you're 320 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:12,280 Speaker 1: going to see them announced at the end of October 321 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 1: where they talk about h four earnings. Right, They're going 322 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 1: to position this as an extra tax bill, right, so 323 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:21,879 Speaker 1: on the balance sheet, their tax effective tax rate is 324 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:24,879 Speaker 1: going to go up significantly because of that ten billion 325 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:27,679 Speaker 1: dollar charge. It's not like they're making a new cash 326 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:30,919 Speaker 1: payment that's coming out of their revenue. It's not like 327 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:34,640 Speaker 1: their operating expenses are going up. This is this is tax, right, 328 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:37,360 Speaker 1: this is how they're going to position it. And this 329 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:40,639 Speaker 1: is money that's spent in an Escro account between Apple 330 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:44,359 Speaker 1: in Europe for several years now. And so they're going 331 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:46,480 Speaker 1: to downplay this as much as they can. And to 332 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:49,320 Speaker 1: answer your question, this is just another regulatory hurdle. And 333 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:52,360 Speaker 1: you know companies do face regulatory hurdles from time to time, right, 334 00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 1: But Apple and some of these other companies even facing 335 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:56,640 Speaker 1: a lot lately, and they're probably going to face more. 336 00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 2: Mark Kerman with his folks and for you worldwide, when 337 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 2: you say see according to Bloomberg, I mean nobody Paul 338 00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:10,159 Speaker 2: has property output. Journalistic output is stolen at Bloomberg or 339 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 2: worldwide in tech like Mark German, Mark German, when you 340 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 2: look and it's Tim Cook with Rainbow and they're inside 341 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 2: that fancy building and shoom, you've been in a bunch 342 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:23,240 Speaker 2: of times. When you look at that, what's your longevity, 343 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 2: your shelf life of Tim Cook? 344 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, the Tim Cook succession story is one I've been 345 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 1: following extremely closely. In fact, following Tim Cook's succession and 346 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,919 Speaker 1: the succession of Apple's management team is top three in 347 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 1: my priority list, and it has been for the last 348 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:45,639 Speaker 1: year or so. Tim Cook is pushing sixty four. The 349 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:48,359 Speaker 1: rest of the Apple executive team there in their early 350 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:50,359 Speaker 1: to mid sixties and so you're going to see this 351 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:53,320 Speaker 1: massive changeover of Apple management over the next several years. 352 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 1: And you're seeing this starting later this year with the 353 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 1: CFO Luke ba Maystreet. He's stepping down the CFO with 354 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 1: the tail end of this year, and he's going to 355 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 1: move to more of an advisory role in charge of 356 00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:08,679 Speaker 1: things that are like information systems, real estate, so a 357 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:11,640 Speaker 1: much more minute role compared to what he was doing before. 358 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:13,920 Speaker 1: And you're going to see other Apple executives move into 359 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:18,119 Speaker 1: these smaller roles over time as well. Tim Cook. It 360 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:20,679 Speaker 1: can go anywhere. I mean, I've heard people speculate that 361 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 1: he's going to leave the next two to three years. 362 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:26,119 Speaker 1: I've heard people believe that he's going to stay until 363 00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:28,960 Speaker 1: he's seventy plus and pull a Bob Iger, right. But 364 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:33,520 Speaker 1: technology obviously is a younger person's game. They have an 365 00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:35,840 Speaker 1: air apparent there. His name is John Turnis. He's the 366 00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:39,120 Speaker 1: senior VP of Hardware Engineering. Truth be told, there's really 367 00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:41,880 Speaker 1: no alternative to him, to anyone else but him being 368 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:44,639 Speaker 1: the new CEO down the road. So I think that 369 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:46,680 Speaker 1: plans in place, but it's going to be a scary 370 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:48,920 Speaker 1: time when Apple begins that real changeover Mark. 371 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:52,840 Speaker 2: Nobody cares. All they want to know is this Mark 372 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,880 Speaker 2: German going to buy the new I Watch? You're out 373 00:19:55,960 --> 00:20:00,200 Speaker 2: on Twitter? You had to do a German correction and 374 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 2: I Watch? Which swatch are you going to buy from Apple? 375 00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 2: So you can be cool and all those secret meetings 376 00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:07,200 Speaker 2: you're in. 377 00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 1: Well. I was originally thinking about the Apple Watch Series ten. 378 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:16,520 Speaker 1: I liked the one with the link bracelet, and then 379 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:18,879 Speaker 1: I thought about it. What's the difference between the Series 380 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 1: ten and the Watch Ultra that I'm wearing right now. 381 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 1: It's really battery life. It's double the battery life on 382 00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 1: the Ultra versus the Series ten model. And if you 383 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:30,160 Speaker 1: want to wear this thing to sleep, if you want 384 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,000 Speaker 1: to use the sleep apnea detection, if you want to 385 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,439 Speaker 1: do the sleep tracking, it's kind of difficult to use 386 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:36,920 Speaker 1: an Apple watch that's basically going to run out of 387 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:39,639 Speaker 1: battery after the end of the day before you go 388 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 1: to bed. The Watch is going to be gone anyways, right, 389 00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 1: and so you really kind of need a two day 390 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:47,880 Speaker 1: battery life. So for me the Apple Watch Ultra. First 391 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:51,000 Speaker 1: of all, the new black color looks incredible, even though 392 00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:53,479 Speaker 1: there's nothing different. I will be moving from the silver 393 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:57,639 Speaker 1: one to the black moodel. The other component here is 394 00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:00,879 Speaker 1: that battery that I mentioned. And the screen on the 395 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:04,200 Speaker 1: Ultra is a third brighter than the screen on the 396 00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 1: series ten, so you're getting a bit of better brightness 397 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:10,400 Speaker 1: there too. And next year I expect a bigger redamp 398 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 1: to the old. 399 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:14,359 Speaker 2: It's like, mister consumer guy. I know Paul's taking notes 400 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:16,680 Speaker 2: here because are you going to buy three or four 401 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:20,919 Speaker 2: of these things? Mark Kerman way too early in your morning. 402 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 2: Thank you so much, and I suggest the interview in 403 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:25,400 Speaker 2: Ann Harber. You can do both. You can be defensive 404 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,040 Speaker 2: coach of the h and one or one in one 405 00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:42,680 Speaker 2: Michigan and also continue world class coverage of applifants you Jay, 406 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:46,000 Speaker 2: you look at the front pages, Alisa Mattel hour, Lisa, 407 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 2: you're all fired up over there. 408 00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:48,520 Speaker 7: I am fired up. 409 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,720 Speaker 8: You remember we talked about the Wall Street Journalist of 410 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 8: overall college rankings, right, the best colleges for your ca'ing 411 00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,840 Speaker 8: tim or Babson yesterday Basin, Yes, that was in the 412 00:21:56,920 --> 00:22:00,840 Speaker 8: list too. Now this is looking at the best salaries list. 413 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 8: So the Wall Street Journal has the colleges that are 414 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:07,160 Speaker 8: making graduates the most money. At the top IVY League colleges, 415 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 8: those with strong tech programs. 416 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:13,160 Speaker 7: Number one Mite Massachusetts. 417 00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 8: Technology early career earnings had a medium of just over 418 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 8: one hundred and thirty three thousand dollars. 419 00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 7: Now, it also had a lot of success stories. 420 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:25,080 Speaker 4: For Oh, no, did you say starting, starting, three, three, 421 00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,160 Speaker 4: twenty two five. I made in nineteen eighty. 422 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:33,360 Speaker 7: My first job, eighteen k newspapers. 423 00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,480 Speaker 2: Yes, I remember looking at it, going they take that 424 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:37,560 Speaker 2: much in Texas? 425 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,480 Speaker 7: Exactly? What's fight? That's my first question. 426 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:46,399 Speaker 8: Number two Stanford University, they said that entrepreneurship pipeline, of 427 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:47,640 Speaker 8: course into the tech companies. 428 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:51,880 Speaker 7: Princeton University number three. Private universities thirty six. That's topped 429 00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:55,520 Speaker 7: fifty spots on that salary list. But STEM programs Georgia 430 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:56,480 Speaker 7: Tech was fourth. 431 00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 4: So stem programs also, but. 432 00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 2: Serious to me, there's a divide between kids going to college, 433 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:07,520 Speaker 2: whether they're taking art history or electrical engineering, if they're 434 00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:11,840 Speaker 2: working the tail off or are they just sliding through 435 00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,160 Speaker 2: what percentages just sliding through? 436 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 4: Probably they slide off through category I just especially at 437 00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:21,119 Speaker 4: business school. 438 00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:25,199 Speaker 2: Chuck Lieberman was in yesterday, Chuck Lieberman, good morning, iconic 439 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 2: equity investor. He's got that MIT ring on his finger 440 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,840 Speaker 2: with the bear playing around with those No, it's a beaver. 441 00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:33,000 Speaker 2: Excuse me, the beaver? 442 00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:34,280 Speaker 3: Are they? 443 00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,040 Speaker 2: It's a classic. It's like Texas A and m Jess 444 00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 2: Metton's got the Texas A and m ring on an 445 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:42,320 Speaker 2: Aggie ring. It's a hunk of gold. 446 00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:46,080 Speaker 8: Next, well, keep it with education. So the Boston Globe 447 00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,919 Speaker 8: had this interesting article. A lot of parents, more parents 448 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,359 Speaker 8: in the three of Boston's largest suburbs, they're sending the 449 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,560 Speaker 8: kids to private school so they're switching them from public 450 00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:58,040 Speaker 8: to private. Talking about Brookline, Cambridge, Newton, they have about 451 00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 8: thirty thousand school aged children, so one in five now 452 00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:03,040 Speaker 8: attend private. 453 00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:04,000 Speaker 7: Or parochial schools. 454 00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:06,480 Speaker 8: The reason why experts are saying COVID had a lot 455 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 8: to do with it. In September twenty twenty, a lot 456 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:12,280 Speaker 8: of private schools brought the students back full time, but 457 00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:15,639 Speaker 8: the public schools stayed online and a lot of parents 458 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,400 Speaker 8: want that more challenging environment for the kids. They say 459 00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,199 Speaker 8: that the private school does that for them. They have 460 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:23,399 Speaker 8: the smaller class sizes as wellwide, so. 461 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:26,000 Speaker 7: It is, yes, they do get to that. 462 00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:26,960 Speaker 3: Yes, up in New England. 463 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,160 Speaker 4: They have so many good private schools in New England 464 00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:31,200 Speaker 4: as they do around here in the Great New York area. 465 00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:35,640 Speaker 2: But yeah, I just I just think COVID, we don't 466 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 2: understand that, we don't understand what their kids and we're 467 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,760 Speaker 2: living this every day. I mean that bill hasn't recovered 468 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 2: from COVID, but you know, I'm sorry. We don't understand 469 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:48,199 Speaker 2: what COVID did to the kids learning cycles, just that 470 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 2: they're behind period, and that's yeah. 471 00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:53,479 Speaker 7: And then public schools have budget cuts, strikes. I mean, 472 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,640 Speaker 7: there's so many different issues for the public in New. 473 00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,040 Speaker 2: York as well. Yeah, everyway, next, what do you go? 474 00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:01,399 Speaker 8: Okay, NFL season, right, you've been talking about it underway, Okay, 475 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:04,679 Speaker 8: But experts they're seeing more bankruptcies in states that have 476 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:09,720 Speaker 8: legalized sports betting, so personal bankruptcies, yes, consumer bankruptcy attorneys 477 00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:12,200 Speaker 8: they're telling Bloomberg, Yeah, they're starting to see gambling debts 478 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,760 Speaker 8: more often. It's happening in the states with the sports 479 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:15,439 Speaker 8: bidding apps. 480 00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:16,920 Speaker 7: Here's what the study show. 481 00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,240 Speaker 8: Residents in those states shown early signs of financial distress, 482 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,480 Speaker 8: a twenty eight percent increase the likelihood of bankruptcy filings. 483 00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:27,919 Speaker 8: It could get worse because Americans expected to report record 484 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,679 Speaker 8: thirty five billion in legal bets through the NFL season, 485 00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:34,280 Speaker 8: up from twenty seven billion last year. 486 00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:35,159 Speaker 7: So you see the difference. 487 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 8: A lot of the men in their twenties and thirties, 488 00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:38,400 Speaker 8: that's who's placing the bets. 489 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 2: But yeah, can I ask a dumb question? And the 490 00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:45,800 Speaker 2: guy at Bloomberg Intelligence is expert us in gambling, Branegger, 491 00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,480 Speaker 2: does anybody win the house in the long run? 492 00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:52,480 Speaker 4: I mean like house, That's why they build these huge 493 00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:54,479 Speaker 4: casino hotels and swim pools. 494 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:58,879 Speaker 2: But like, over three weeks of NFL, is there somebody 495 00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 2: that wins over three forget about the season. 496 00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:03,400 Speaker 7: Yeah, I don't know, just to. 497 00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,600 Speaker 2: Give and they go, oh my OMG, I made a 498 00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:09,480 Speaker 2: lot of money. 499 00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,639 Speaker 7: With your head over Yeah, that's what they say. But 500 00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:11,840 Speaker 7: I guess some people I don't have. 501 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:13,399 Speaker 8: That kind of it, but they're Yeah, they're blowing through 502 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:15,680 Speaker 8: their four on one case by I'm still not used. 503 00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:16,119 Speaker 7: To this crazy. 504 00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:20,160 Speaker 2: I'm backed with Pete Rose and I'm not I mean, 505 00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:21,320 Speaker 2: we're so. 506 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:22,520 Speaker 4: Easy with your phone though. 507 00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,320 Speaker 7: I mean that's the moblem in chest. They're saying it's 508 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:28,280 Speaker 7: made it easier, I mean more accessible. Right, it's right. 509 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:32,199 Speaker 4: There, and it's just yeah, we'll see, but's it's I 510 00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,040 Speaker 4: don't have that. Twenty eight states or something like that 511 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,600 Speaker 4: has legalized game with thirty Yeah, yeah, yeah about thirty s. 512 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:38,000 Speaker 2: Got one more? 513 00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 7: No one more, this one. 514 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,400 Speaker 8: This one's a danger Okay, Okay, Halloween right just over 515 00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:46,640 Speaker 8: a month away. No, Walmart, that's a costume for adults 516 00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:50,080 Speaker 8: that cater to let's say, open relationships. 517 00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:52,879 Speaker 7: So it's a costume of three it comes in instead 518 00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:56,120 Speaker 7: of three thrupples. Yes, that's calling it. 519 00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:59,840 Speaker 8: I did never heard that word before today. So Walmart, 520 00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:05,080 Speaker 8: it's a couple's three piece s'morest costume. Okay, so you 521 00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:08,040 Speaker 8: have one who's a piece of chocolate, one who's the marshmallow, 522 00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:09,359 Speaker 8: and one who's the gram cracker. 523 00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:09,560 Speaker 7: Okay. 524 00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:12,520 Speaker 8: It sells for about twenty seven bucks. But the new 525 00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:18,120 Speaker 8: Post says it's gaining popularity social media Thrupple costume. More 526 00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:21,760 Speaker 8: people are to that open relationship nice all right? 527 00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:22,600 Speaker 7: Calling it that? 528 00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 2: Is this a family network? 529 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:27,119 Speaker 7: I called it open? 530 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 8: There's other names for it, but study show gen z ors. 531 00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:36,320 Speaker 8: That's what they're more kind of open to them. This 532 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,520 Speaker 8: costume becoming more popular, Yes, have fun with that, so 533 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:41,000 Speaker 8: this Halloween. 534 00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:41,760 Speaker 3: Have fun. 535 00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,560 Speaker 2: It used to be simple, are you going as Elsa? 536 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,959 Speaker 2: The other girl? Let it go? Let it go. There 537 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:51,240 Speaker 2: used to be you know, halloweens for kids, but I 538 00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,200 Speaker 2: mean adults us to do it. 539 00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:55,320 Speaker 7: Yeah, they have the adult Halloween parties. 540 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:58,520 Speaker 2: I remember when you Swiss you ready, when cores beer 541 00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:03,840 Speaker 2: the el Ira campaign to me shifted the country. It 542 00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:07,920 Speaker 2: was so successful, and that's when the bars all picked 543 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:11,080 Speaker 2: up on a big time and all that folloween. Yeah, 544 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:14,560 Speaker 2: but to me it was it was you kids and 545 00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:17,960 Speaker 2: all that. I'd love to see, right, agree, Thank you, Lisa, 546 00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:23,320 Speaker 2: Lisa Matteo on the newspapers. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, 547 00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:28,360 Speaker 2: bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 548 00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,960 Speaker 2: You can also watch the show live on YouTube. 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