1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,520 Speaker 1: Now we head out to California to Stanford University, the 2 00:00:03,520 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: Hoover Institution, where Lonnie Chen is standing by. He's a 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:11,400 Speaker 1: former advisor to the Marco Rubio and Romney campaigns. In fact, 4 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:15,360 Speaker 1: he's worked on several high profile political campaigns. He's a 5 00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:18,919 Speaker 1: research fellow at Hoover Director of Domestic Policy Studies, and 6 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:22,880 Speaker 1: a lecture in the Public Policy program at Stanford University. 7 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:26,639 Speaker 1: So Lonnie Chan, welcome back to the show. Thanks Kathleen. 8 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:30,480 Speaker 1: Your poll, a new poll shows there's an aged divide 9 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 1: among California Democrats and some goop unity issues. Let's start 10 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:36,920 Speaker 1: on the Democratic side. What is the poll? Who who 11 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:41,200 Speaker 1: did you talk to? And what's the results for the Democrats. Well, 12 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 1: we at the Hoover Institution partnered with some of the 13 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:46,559 Speaker 1: other research institutions at Stanford and the polling firm you 14 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:50,519 Speaker 1: Gov to conduct a poll of seventeen hundred Californians and 15 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 1: we found exactly as you indicated, a significant split amongst 16 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: Democrats in terms of who they support. So eighteen to 17 00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: twenty nine year olds overwhelmingly uh ported Bernie Sanders, and 18 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 1: other age demographics overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton, which resulted in 19 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 1: our poll in a thirteen point lead for Hillary Clinton 20 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:10,679 Speaker 1: going into next week's California primaries, So that's good news 21 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 1: for her. Obviously, though there remains a significant division based 22 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 1: on age, but we didn't find as many differences based 23 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 1: on other factors like ethnicity and race. But certainly the 24 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 1: age issue have to be concerning for Hillary in the 25 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:26,639 Speaker 1: long run, because kids tend to go more for Bernie 26 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 1: Sanders and in many in many voting outcomes, and also 27 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:33,119 Speaker 1: in this poll, that's right, they tend to like Bernie 28 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:36,559 Speaker 1: Sanders progressive positions, particularly when he talks about free college 29 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:39,120 Speaker 1: tuition for example. That's one that's very popular with my 30 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 1: students here at Stanford UM. But the reality is, you know, 31 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton has been trying in this primary to adjust 32 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 1: some of her views on issues to be more uh interesting, 33 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 1: let's say, to the younger demographic. But unfortunately, at least 34 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 1: in our poll, that does not appear to have paid off. Uh, Lonnie, 35 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 1: the California primaries what less than a week away now? 36 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 1: Correct threat Seventh, what do you see for the from 37 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 1: this Golden State poll that's most significant for Republicans? Well, 38 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 1: I think there are a couple of issues. First of all, obviously, 39 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:12,920 Speaker 1: Donald Trump is doing well in poll because he's the 40 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 1: only Republican presidential candidate remaining and he is now the 41 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,920 Speaker 1: nominee presumptive. The level of support he's garnering, though in 42 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 1: our poll, is still substantially lower than the level of 43 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 1: support that Mitt Romney won in two thousand and twelve 44 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 1: by the time he got to the California primary, and 45 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 1: the two gentlemen were in very similar positions. Romney was 46 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:32,839 Speaker 1: the nominee presumptive when we came to California in two 47 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 1: thousand and twelve, as is Donald Trump today. But Trump 48 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:38,639 Speaker 1: is polling with the support of over sixty percent of 49 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 1: California Republicans. But that's compared to the almost ninety percent 50 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 1: support that Mitt Romney enjoyed in exit polling after the 51 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 1: two thousand and twelve elections. So Donald Trump does not 52 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 1: appear as though he has unified the Republican Party in 53 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:55,080 Speaker 1: California in the same way that Romney did ahead of 54 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 1: the two thousand twelve primary, So that maybe one warning sign. 55 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 1: Another interesting issue is that you've got basically one in 56 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 1: three California Republicans who are still trying to make up 57 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 1: their minds about whether they want to support another candidate, 58 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 1: rite someone in or stay home come election day. Now, 59 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 1: you were a senior official uh in the Bush administration 60 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 1: at the US Department of Health and Human Services. As 61 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:20,079 Speaker 1: I mentioned, you were helped run the Romney Ryan twelve 62 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:22,760 Speaker 1: presidential campaign. You helped advise Marco Rubio, so you were 63 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:27,520 Speaker 1: obviously an insider in Republican Party circles. What are you 64 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 1: hearing and in fact, what do you think of Donald 65 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 1: Trump as the candidate on the for the Republicans. Well, 66 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 1: you know, I personally am am greatly troubled by by 67 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:40,960 Speaker 1: Trump as the presumptive nominee. I think particularly the lack 68 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 1: of detail he's put out on certain policy areas, in 69 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 1: facting a lot of policy or been concerning. But I think, 70 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 1: you know, the fundamental issue with Donald Trump is that 71 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 1: it does not appear to hold the same conservative points 72 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: of views on issues as past nominees have of the 73 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 1: Republican Party. And you know that's been overlooked, I think 74 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:00,120 Speaker 1: by and large by many of the electorate because with 75 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 1: his personality and a lot of people find his brashness 76 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 1: and his sort of tell it like it is to 77 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 1: be an attractive feature of his candidacy. Um for me, personally, though, 78 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 1: I think he's quite a wild card, and I think, 79 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 1: you know, it's a dangerous situation when you nominate someone 80 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:16,359 Speaker 1: and you're not entirely sure what they're going to do, 81 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 1: aside from apparently build a wall and get tough on 82 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 1: China when it comes to trade. So, uh, you know, 83 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:23,200 Speaker 1: I find the Trump candidacy to be troubling. You know, 84 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 1: I was obviously for Rubio. I think he would have 85 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 1: been the best nominee for the party this year and beyond. 86 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 1: But the voters chose chose Trump, and that's who the 87 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:32,599 Speaker 1: guy will be going into the fall, Lonnie. Is it 88 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 1: possible that's conservative conservativism of many other leading Republicans has 89 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:41,919 Speaker 1: not appealed sufficiently to more moderate Republicans and that for 90 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 1: some reason that's who Donald Trump is attracting, someone who 91 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:47,839 Speaker 1: has kind of put off by the more conservative policies 92 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 1: of others. Yeah, I mean that could be part of it. 93 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: You know that there's an anti establishment ism to the 94 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 1: Trump support. There's also a moderate a nature to his 95 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 1: support as well that that that comes with a more 96 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 1: moderate positioning that Trump is taken on certain issues. Um, 97 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:03,720 Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, Kathleen, I tend 98 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:06,360 Speaker 1: to attribute a lot of his support to the fact that, 99 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,280 Speaker 1: you know, people have seen him on TV. He's somebody 100 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 1: who's familiar, and he is in some ways an ideal 101 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:15,159 Speaker 1: candidate for the era of television. He knows how to 102 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:18,279 Speaker 1: use and in some cases manipulate media to his favor, 103 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 1: and he's and he manages to get out there quite 104 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 1: a bit, and people see him and they like him. So, 105 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:23,919 Speaker 1: you know, I think that it has much more to 106 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 1: do with personality than stances on issues. Bonnie Chin, thank 107 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:29,839 Speaker 1: you so very much for joining me today on taking 108 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 1: Stock from the Couver Institution at Stanford University. He's worked 109 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 1: on Republican campaigns in Republican administration. He views Donald Trump 110 00:05:39,240 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 1: as a wild card and says that maybe his skills 111 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 1: on television has are what is attracting so many Republicans. 112 00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 1: This is taking Stock on Blueboard Radio.