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Speaker 2: All Right, the other big news company news of the
Speaker 2: day had to do with Tesla. So apparently Tesla's annual
Speaker 2: EV sales drop for the first time in over a decade,
Speaker 2: with about one point seventy nine million.
Speaker 3: Vehicles sold in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: Steve Man, Bloomberg Intelligence Global Autos and Industrials research analyst,
Speaker 2: joins us, So the comparison of hey, this is the
Speaker 2: first time it dropped in over a decade sounds bad.
Speaker 2: Can you just walk us through the intricacies behind this number.
Speaker 4: Yeah, if you actually, if you look at the fourth quarter,
Speaker 4: it's actually up slightly by two percent. But you know
Speaker 4: they've done a lot throughout the quarter to drive that number,
Speaker 4: mainly on incentives, So we're likely to see that to continue.
Speaker 4: But if you look out at twenty twenty five, we
Speaker 4: expect the company that actually give you know, rosier guidance.
Speaker 4: They do have new vehicles coming out, the refresh of
Speaker 4: the model why, the popular model why. And then there's
Speaker 4: a new affordable vehicle being launched in the first half
Speaker 4: that should drive sales in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 5: So how important are incentives these days, Steve? For the
Speaker 5: average EV buyer.
Speaker 6: It is very important. It's not just on EV.
Speaker 4: We're seeing that throughout the auto industry, including gasoline cars.
Speaker 4: Affordability continue to be an issue. You know, if you
Speaker 4: look at delinquency rates on loans are they're rising, so
Speaker 4: the automakers have to come in and actually support demand.
Speaker 4: So we'll probably see that in twenty twenty five. But
Speaker 4: you know, there's there's reports out there that we, you know,
Speaker 4: including ours, we think that battery costs will continue to
Speaker 4: come down and then we'll see probably a better an upturn,
Speaker 4: likely in twenty twenty six, not so much in this year.
Speaker 2: When you mentioned that there'll be some product refreshes this
Speaker 2: year as well as an affordable Tesla, yeah, I've been
Speaker 2: hearing that for a while. What do we mean by
Speaker 2: affordable and do we trust this timeline?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 4: So, you know, I think there's been a lot of
Speaker 4: questions out there in terms of how you know, if
Speaker 4: Elon must will actually meet his own projection. I think
Speaker 4: that he will launch the affordable EV and that's likely
Speaker 4: to be under a thirty thousand including the that then
Speaker 4: includes the seventy five hundred credit incentive by the federal government.
Speaker 3: Oh, it includes it.
Speaker 2: So if that goes away, it no longer becomes affordable.
Speaker 3: It still is.
Speaker 4: It's still one of the cheapest EV's out there. I
Speaker 4: think the new EV's that they're launching coming going forward
Speaker 4: will actually be much lower costs than the current model
Speaker 4: three Model Y, so there's still some room for them
Speaker 4: to cut prices and also, you know, help help maintain
Speaker 4: the automotive gross margin around the you know, eighteen to
Speaker 4: twenty percent.
Speaker 5: Steve, twenty twenty four feels like a year where the
Speaker 5: evolution towards electric vehicleles hit kind of a speed bump
Speaker 5: at there A. Is that in fact the case? And
Speaker 5: b how do you think about the industries continued evolution
Speaker 5: to EV's over the twenty twenty five Yeah.
Speaker 4: I think twenty twenty five EV sales will probably be
Speaker 4: grown at a single digit and you know, incentives still
Speaker 4: going to be a bigger part of the story. But
Speaker 4: I think long term, you know, beyond twenty twenty five.
Speaker 4: That means twenty twenty six and beyond, I think EV
Speaker 4: sales will recover, battery costs.
Speaker 6: Will continue to come down.
Speaker 4: More automakers, not just Tesla, GM and Stilentis are launching
Speaker 4: newer and cheaper evs. That's going to be that's going
Speaker 4: to resonate with a with a mass market. You know,
Speaker 4: a lot of the early adopters have bought evs, and
Speaker 4: I think the next leg up is really to get
Speaker 4: the general population to buy evs and make it more
Speaker 4: affordable for them.
Speaker 2: I guess I just wonder, like without the tax credit,
Speaker 2: if that goes away, I appreciate that Tesla's still the
Speaker 2: cheapest one out there, but that's not going to be Like,
Speaker 2: there's no way Paul's buying a thirty eight thousand dollars Tesla, right, Like,
Speaker 2: that's not happening. So what has to happen for that
Speaker 2: price to get even lower? And I know that it's
Speaker 2: a chicken and an egg thing, right because you need
Speaker 2: the demand in order to trigger the production, which then
Speaker 2: releases lower prices. But that's just not materializing, particularly without
Speaker 2: that tax credit, right.
Speaker 4: You know, I think we talked about battery costs is
Speaker 4: being one of them. The other thing is really.
Speaker 6: The charging infrastructure.
Speaker 4: You know, I don't think the charging infrastructures has been
Speaker 4: expanded to a point where it's convenient for a lot
Speaker 4: of the for owners or potential owners of EV's, but
Speaker 4: there's a lot of money being poured into it. There's
Speaker 4: one company called ev Go. They just got a huge
Speaker 4: loan from the federal government to expand. We got a
Speaker 4: lot of automakers, major ones, GM.
Speaker 6: Ford and.
Speaker 4: Hyundai and the likes are actually joining forces together, pulling
Speaker 4: capital together to expand the infrastructure. So that's why, you know,
Speaker 4: I think, you know, beyond twenty twenty six to beyond
Speaker 4: twenty twenty five, we're going to see improved uptick on
Speaker 4: EV demand because of not only cheaper EV's, but an
Speaker 4: expanded charging infrastructure.
Speaker 5: Steve above the auto companies you own, what's the best
Speaker 5: position here do you think for what's going to be
Speaker 5: a bumpy several years, arguably as as transition continues.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I still you know, if I look at the company,
Speaker 4: I still prefer Tesla in terms of their fundamentals. There's
Speaker 4: still the lowest cost producers. The next one is GM
Speaker 4: and Shanday. You know, they have the best offering at
Speaker 4: the moment, and they continue to launch more affordable evs.
Speaker 4: On the other end of the spectrum, Ford is actually retrenching.
Speaker 4: They're more focused on commercial EV business rather than the
Speaker 4: consumer EV business. So commercial evs there's demand, but obviously
Speaker 4: the market is not as big as the consumers.
Speaker 3: All right, thanks so much, We appreciate that.
Speaker 2: Steve Steve Man Bloomberg Intelligence, Global Autos and Industrials research
Speaker 2: analysts joining us on those Tesla delivery numbers.
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Speaker 5: All right, we started your year green on the screen.
Speaker 5: The question is do you stick with what got you here?
Speaker 5: Kind of the mag set in some of the big
Speaker 5: tech themes that have worked for equity investors so well
Speaker 5: over the last couple of years, already trying to branch
Speaker 5: you out and find some value in other places. Let's
Speaker 5: check out with our next guests, on that issue, Kathy
Speaker 5: and Twistle Managing Director Morgan Stanley Private Wealth and Management,
Speaker 5: joining us via zoom. So, Katy, what are you telling
Speaker 5: your clients this year? I mean, you know, from an
Speaker 5: equity respective, the market's really delivered outstanding returns over the
Speaker 5: last two years, but again a lot of that was
Speaker 5: skewed by a handful of names.
Speaker 6: Here. What do you do this year?
Speaker 7: Hey, thanks for having me on today. Happy New Year.
Speaker 7: There's a lot to talk about and a lot to
Speaker 7: do for clients first day of the year, and with
Speaker 7: the mag seven really outperforming, we are telling our clients
Speaker 7: to consider like reducing a lot of those positions with
Speaker 7: tax harvesting and thinking thoughtfully. A lot of clients are
Speaker 7: starting the year off, obviously with the zero tax sum gain,
Speaker 7: and it's a good time to start reducing those positions
Speaker 7: looking at other areas because there will be other areas
Speaker 7: that will become more robust and better opportunities for clients
Speaker 7: going forward. So it's just about diversification in some ways.
Speaker 2: Kathy, though this exact conversation could have taken place today
Speaker 2: at this exact same time one year ago, and it
Speaker 2: still wouldn't have necessarily worked out because you still had
Speaker 2: the big guys getting the big gains.
Speaker 7: Absolutely, Alex. When I speak with my clients, I ask them,
Speaker 7: you know, what, how are you going to feel at
Speaker 7: the end of the year if these positions are much higher,
Speaker 7: and then how are you going to feel if they're
Speaker 7: much lower? And which one feels worse? And if you
Speaker 7: think that if they go down tremendously and that's going
Speaker 7: to feel worse for you, that probably means you're taking
Speaker 7: too much risk for your you know, for your for
Speaker 7: your own risk tolerance and portfolio. And by reducing some
Speaker 7: of that risk and putting those assets in other areas
Speaker 7: of your portfolio, you're actually giving yourself a sleep at
Speaker 7: night formula and still having the opportunity to grow your portfolio.
Speaker 5: Is sixty forty Is that still a reasonable fuller construction?
Speaker 5: Sixty percent equities, forty percent bonds or alternatives something.
Speaker 7: It's it's it definitely has changed over the years, so
Speaker 7: sixty forty. And it used to also be like sixty
Speaker 7: percent of equities or equity percentage should be what your
Speaker 7: age is, and that has also changed tsentry over the years.
Speaker 7: So now we're looking at clients' portfolios, we're looking at
Speaker 7: a couple of different things. The first thing is do
Speaker 7: they have enough money today in order to you know,
Speaker 7: reach all of the goals like living comfortably, doing the
Speaker 7: things that they want to do, making an impact in
Speaker 7: the world, whatever it may be. We want to make
Speaker 7: sure they have enough money. So the first thing is
Speaker 7: protecting you know, the wealth that the client is built
Speaker 7: and being sure that we can create the cash flow
Speaker 7: and the income for them, and then secondly being able
Speaker 7: to grow it enough to keep up with inflation and
Speaker 7: also take advantage of growth opportunities in the market. So
Speaker 7: if a client has enough money to do a fifty
Speaker 7: percent equity portfolio or fifty five percent equity portfolio, will
Speaker 7: do that too. We are mixing in other areas of
Speaker 7: them markets though, other than just cash, equities and stocks,
Speaker 7: in order to achieve some of the target returns that
Speaker 7: we're looking for, and that includes alternative investments.
Speaker 3: What does alternative investments mean.
Speaker 7: To you guys, Well, to me, it means just like
Speaker 7: a non correlated asset class. Earlier in the program, I
Speaker 7: think I heard conversations about hedge funds and hedge funds performing,
Speaker 7: So we do want to have where it's appropriate some
Speaker 7: of those asset classes in our client's portfolio. So it
Speaker 7: could be hedge funds, it could be private equity credit.
Speaker 7: You know, the whole banking system has this shadow banking
Speaker 7: system behind it now with private equity firms and coming
Speaker 7: in and providing credit to borrowers, and we are also
Speaker 7: providing the opportunity for clients to invest there as well. Again,
Speaker 7: it depends on the client and their risk tolerance and
Speaker 7: their appropriateness for that type of investment, but it can
Speaker 7: make a big difference in terms of not doing exactly
Speaker 7: what the more mart does non correlated asset class and
Speaker 7: also providing some nice income returns, especially for those who
Speaker 7: are looking from you know, they're in the allocation phase
Speaker 7: and now they're going into like the disbursement phase. They're
Speaker 7: getting ready to retire, and they want to make sure
Speaker 7: they have enough money to live on and not run out.
Speaker 5: Kathy, how about in the fixed income space, how much
Speaker 5: credit risk are you suggesting clients take these days? I mean,
Speaker 5: if you consider it in a to your treasure and
Speaker 5: get four point two five percent, do you need to
Speaker 5: do much more than that?
Speaker 7: Yeah? What you want to think about is the way
Speaker 7: the rates are changing right now as we're seeing is
Speaker 7: shorter rates are starting to come down and longer rates
Speaker 7: are staying higher. So we're trying to move some of
Speaker 7: our clients that have cash or short term cash like
Speaker 7: investments like to your treasuries into longer investments so that
Speaker 7: they can lock in those higher rates for longer. And
Speaker 7: I think that's a very simple and easy move to
Speaker 7: make right now for clients. So that's what we're trying to.
Speaker 2: Do, all right, Kathy, Thanks Lott, really appreciate Katy and
Speaker 2: still Managing Director Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, appreciate that
Speaker 2: really very much.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarcklay and Android Auto
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you
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Speaker 5: Let's talk about some fun stuff here, some digital media streaming,
Speaker 5: all that kind of stuff. Where's this business going to
Speaker 5: be taking us in twenty twenty five. The best person
Speaker 5: to chat with that is Mark Douglas, President and CEO
Speaker 5: of Mountain. Hey, Mark, I want to start with sports.
Speaker 5: We had a time as recently as I don't know
Speaker 5: a year, year and a half ago when Netflix says
Speaker 5: we're never getting into sports, Well, that's changing, and it's
Speaker 5: changing in a big way. How do you think this
Speaker 5: last bastion of broadcasting, cable network television in terms of
Speaker 5: audience attraction live sports, how do you think that's going
Speaker 5: to migrate this year to streaming?
Speaker 8: Well, I think you're seeing a few things happening at
Speaker 8: the same time what you just mentioned, which is Netflix
Speaker 8: getting into sports. Also ESPN is coming like fully to streaming.
Speaker 8: So I think the advertisers really like they still are
Speaker 8: addicted to kind of like big audiences watching at the
Speaker 8: same time so they can create big moments, and so
Speaker 8: these networks they want to commodate that. But they're going
Speaker 8: to start accommodating that on streaming in twenty and twenty five.
Speaker 6: It's already happening.
Speaker 8: But now you hear from Disney, you hear from Netflix,
Speaker 8: they're really going all in on it. I think ESPN
Speaker 8: on streaming, really going full in on streaming is a
Speaker 8: big deal.
Speaker 2: Will the ad revenue for that live streaming of sports
Speaker 2: follow I.
Speaker 6: Think it will.
Speaker 3: I think the.
Speaker 8: Netflix in particular is a big advantage because so many
Speaker 8: people go to Netflix as a first source so they
Speaker 8: can turn something that might not have been that big
Speaker 8: into a big moment. They did that with the Tyson
Speaker 8: Jake Paul fight. I think they're going to do that
Speaker 8: with WWE on Monday, where people who normally wouldn't watch
Speaker 8: WWE are going to turn on the TV and that's
Speaker 8: what they see, and they're going to you know, click
Speaker 8: and watch, and so they able to kind of amplify
Speaker 8: these sports events. But Disney with ABC and all the
Speaker 8: other and especially ESPN, also has an ability to deliver
Speaker 8: a big audience.
Speaker 6: I think they'll do the same.
Speaker 5: You were bullish, really you were really early on on
Speaker 5: the Netflix story, Mark. Are you still as bullish about them,
Speaker 5: because one could argue it's a whole new competitive landscape
Speaker 5: here these days.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think where you go first, you know, in
Speaker 8: some sense the modern day TV guy is.
Speaker 6: A really really big deal.
Speaker 8: And as long as Netflix owns that spot, I think
Speaker 8: there's data to show that, well more than fifty percent
Speaker 8: of people when they turn on the TV, the first app,
Speaker 8: because now you like start an app rather than change a.
Speaker 6: Channel, the first app they go to is Netflix.
Speaker 8: As long as you own that spot, you will own,
Speaker 8: you know, kind of be the leader in streaming, and
Speaker 8: but it requires a big investment in content. People go
Speaker 8: there first because that's the first place they think there's
Speaker 8: going to be new content. So Netflix is going to
Speaker 8: have to keep beating that machine. And they're doing it now,
Speaker 8: and they're doing it profitably. So you know, all of
Speaker 8: that combined, I think keeps them in the lead until
Speaker 8: they they until they make a strategic error essentially, and
Speaker 8: maybe you know, get cheap about how much there willing
Speaker 8: to spend on content, people abandon them.
Speaker 2: So you guys, I found the one movie that's not
Speaker 2: on streaming really, Yes, I tried to bring it up
Speaker 2: yesterday to show my daughter and it was nowhere. You
Speaker 2: couldn't even buy it on Apple TV. Okay, Well, Nuns
Speaker 2: on the Run nineteen ninety British comedy with Eric Idel
Speaker 2: and Robbie Coltrane could not find it. It was very
Speaker 2: upsetting interesting putting this up.
Speaker 5: That's what that's what you were searching for.
Speaker 2: Yes, well, we went on a whole eighties movie thing,
Speaker 2: which then brought us some of the nineties movies. So
Speaker 2: we did Clue and then Clue got into Back to
Speaker 2: the Future and then you know, Robbie Coltrane was Hagrid
Speaker 2: and Harry Potter. It's all derivative plays at the room anyway,
Speaker 2: apropos of absolutely nothing. I just thought it was amazing
Speaker 2: that I found the one movie that wasn't on streaming.
Speaker 2: Mark when it comes to the next step, then are
Speaker 2: we gonna see bundles?
Speaker 3: Like you said, it's Netflix is like basically raced to
Speaker 3: lose at the end of the day. So do the
Speaker 3: other guys start bundles?
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean consolidate bundles in the form of acquisitions.
Speaker 6: I think.
Speaker 8: So there's some loose bundles now that don't involve acquisitions.
Speaker 8: But I mean what's happening in twenty twenty five is
Speaker 8: every network is all in on streaming.
Speaker 6: I mean I.
Speaker 8: Talked to executives at all these networks. This is pretty
Speaker 8: regularly all that I mean, linear doesn't even come out
Speaker 8: of their mouth anymore.
Speaker 6: That's a legacy business.
Speaker 8: You know, the viewers are still there, so they still
Speaker 8: have to migrate them, but they only want to talk
Speaker 8: about streaming and the you know, the big one. I've
Speaker 8: said this many times are the ones where I can
Speaker 8: name them and you can.
Speaker 6: Tell me why you go there and watch them, and.
Speaker 8: So those winners are going to started consolidating the buy content,
Speaker 8: and it's already under way, and that that that's kind
Speaker 8: of what's going to have that bundles in the form
Speaker 8: of let's just start buying content and buying these brands
Speaker 8: which are going to disappear like old you know, car
Speaker 8: companies that that you never hear about anymore.
Speaker 6: Something you know, similar to that.
Speaker 5: So are the economics Are they as good in streaming mark?
Speaker 5: Do we know that? I mean, it seems like they're
Speaker 5: pretty good for Netflix.
Speaker 8: They're good for Netflix, and I think starting to get
Speaker 8: good for Disney and you know, it's when do you
Speaker 8: reach a critical mass of subscribers that is more than
Speaker 8: your cost of acquisition for the consumers and the costs
Speaker 8: of the content. And Netflix is clearly at that point.
Speaker 8: I think Disney is. If not, I think I think
Speaker 8: Disney Plus is now profitable. I hope they don't underinvest
Speaker 8: in content to maintain that profitability and so and a.
Speaker 6: Few others are going to follow.
Speaker 8: I think the business is going to become very, very profitable,
Speaker 8: and it's going to go back to being a growth business.
Speaker 8: That's been the story of linear is it grows at
Speaker 8: one percent a year, and streaming has obviously grown a
Speaker 8: lot faster, so hopefully the whole industry is going to
Speaker 8: grow a lot faster.
Speaker 2: If everyone's talking about streaming, are the ad pricing that
Speaker 2: a streamer can get as good as linear?
Speaker 3: And then if not, when does that ship turn?
Speaker 6: Yeah, it is as good.
Speaker 8: The ad load is not quite as high, and so
Speaker 8: consumers are probably happy about that. They see fewer ads,
Speaker 8: but the ad load will probably catch up, and so
Speaker 8: the pricing is about the same, meaning how much money
Speaker 8: can you make per consumer is about the same. One
Speaker 8: thing also just switching back gear, so you know, kind
Speaker 8: of the previous topic. The interesting thing about Netflix is
Speaker 8: they're profitable while they're bringing one out of every two
Speaker 8: subscribers is paying the lowest possible price with ads supported,
Speaker 8: and they're not selling many ads right, They're still relatively
Speaker 8: small in the ad game, and so it bodes well
Speaker 8: for how profitable this company is going to become. I
Speaker 8: think it's five pot ninety nine price point is the
Speaker 8: cheapest price point to join Netflix, and they remain profitable,
Speaker 8: not actually expanding profits at that price point, and the
Speaker 8: media dollars are going to show up and make this
Speaker 8: company incredibly profitable. So that's back to the question about
Speaker 8: you know, is the industry going to grow, Is the
Speaker 8: profitability going to be there? Yeah, it's going to be
Speaker 8: there pretty big and particularly pretty large for Netflix.
Speaker 5: Is there a sense mark how many streamers can be
Speaker 5: economically supported in this marketplace?
Speaker 8: You mean, in terms, there's I wouldn't call it unlimited
Speaker 8: demand for TV advertising, but there's a lot of demand.
Speaker 8: The pricing has been coming down a bit because of
Speaker 8: the competition you had in twenty you know, like Netflix
Speaker 8: started to really come on board, Disney plus Amazon Prime.
Speaker 8: Now every subscriber receives ads. There's not even a way
Speaker 8: to opt out, and so all of that news inventory
Speaker 8: is definitely bringing prices down, triggering a little bit of
Speaker 8: a price war, But I think that'll shake out when
Speaker 8: you combine that with the acquisition spree that's probably going
Speaker 8: to happen over the next few years. I think pricing
Speaker 8: will temporarily dip then start to go back up. And
Speaker 8: the main thing is you have a lot of new
Speaker 8: advertisers coming in and market a lot smaller younger, mid
Speaker 8: sized companies, smaller companies and bringing new revenue that will
Speaker 8: drive up revenue for the whole industry, Mark, are.
Speaker 2: We ever going to see the streamers get really into
Speaker 2: news talking about live I know that some of them
Speaker 2: have their own streaming news part, right, like CBS now,
Speaker 2: et cetera.
Speaker 3: How do you think that part evolves?
Speaker 6: I think probably not.
Speaker 8: And the reason is is because you know, like no
Speaker 8: one really I think fully understood in the recent years
Speaker 8: that like social media is a big competitor in news,
Speaker 8: so they get the kind of news that people are
Speaker 8: getting literally right now listening to you the the I
Speaker 8: don't see, you know, I think that's going to remain
Speaker 8: relatively independent. I don't see like Netflix and Disney getting
Speaker 8: into that and and so. And I've never, honestly never
Speaker 8: hear from any of these companies about news. They only
Speaker 8: want to talk about sports and entertainment.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 5: Uh, Mark, So what happens to some of those linear
Speaker 5: networks that we all grew up with? The Did the
Speaker 5: media companies just let them die a slow, natural death?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 8: You know, that's a really tough question to answer, the
Speaker 8: the because I wonder that myself, and I can't say
Speaker 8: I have a response. I just don't see like a
Speaker 8: brand like CNN just disappearing. It's just too strong a brand,
Speaker 8: but it's going and need to go through some evolution.
Speaker 6: Clearly people aren't showing up for that.
Speaker 8: The other thing that competing with that mentioned social media's podcasts.
Speaker 8: You know, there are numerous podcasts that have more viewers
Speaker 8: per day than like CNN and so and buy a lot,
Speaker 8: not a little, and through multiple outlets, you know, like
Speaker 8: podcasting and YouTube.
Speaker 6: And things like that.
Speaker 8: So I think that's still evolving, but I don't see
Speaker 8: the you know, brand like CNN just like disappearing.
Speaker 6: It's but it's going to have to am.
Speaker 2: All right, Hey, Mark, we really appreciate it. Thanks for
Speaker 2: hanging on with us. Mark Douglas joining US president and
Speaker 2: CEO of Mountain.
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