1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 1: Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App, 4 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:21,840 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 2: All Right, the other big news company news of the 7 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:28,600 Speaker 2: day had to do with Tesla. So apparently Tesla's annual 8 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 2: EV sales drop for the first time in over a decade, 9 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:33,879 Speaker 2: with about one point seventy nine million. 10 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 3: Vehicles sold in twenty twenty four. 11 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:38,919 Speaker 2: Steve Man, Bloomberg Intelligence Global Autos and Industrials research analyst, 12 00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 2: joins us, So the comparison of hey, this is the 13 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 2: first time it dropped in over a decade sounds bad. 14 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:47,200 Speaker 2: Can you just walk us through the intricacies behind this number. 15 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, if you actually, if you look at the fourth quarter, 16 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 4: it's actually up slightly by two percent. But you know 17 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 4: they've done a lot throughout the quarter to drive that number, 18 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 4: mainly on incentives, So we're likely to see that to continue. 19 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:06,080 Speaker 4: But if you look out at twenty twenty five, we 20 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 4: expect the company that actually give you know, rosier guidance. 21 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 4: They do have new vehicles coming out, the refresh of 22 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 4: the model why, the popular model why. And then there's 23 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 4: a new affordable vehicle being launched in the first half 24 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:23,479 Speaker 4: that should drive sales in twenty twenty five. 25 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:27,680 Speaker 5: So how important are incentives these days, Steve? For the 26 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:29,120 Speaker 5: average EV buyer. 27 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:33,040 Speaker 6: It is very important. It's not just on EV. 28 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:37,319 Speaker 4: We're seeing that throughout the auto industry, including gasoline cars. 29 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 4: Affordability continue to be an issue. You know, if you 30 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 4: look at delinquency rates on loans are they're rising, so 31 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 4: the automakers have to come in and actually support demand. 32 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 4: So we'll probably see that in twenty twenty five. But 33 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 4: you know, there's there's reports out there that we, you know, 34 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 4: including ours, we think that battery costs will continue to 35 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 4: come down and then we'll see probably a better an upturn, 36 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:11,519 Speaker 4: likely in twenty twenty six, not so much in this year. 37 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 2: When you mentioned that there'll be some product refreshes this 38 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 2: year as well as an affordable Tesla, yeah, I've been 39 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:19,080 Speaker 2: hearing that for a while. What do we mean by 40 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:22,639 Speaker 2: affordable and do we trust this timeline? 41 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 6: Yeah? 42 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:25,639 Speaker 4: So, you know, I think there's been a lot of 43 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 4: questions out there in terms of how you know, if 44 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:32,560 Speaker 4: Elon must will actually meet his own projection. I think 45 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 4: that he will launch the affordable EV and that's likely 46 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 4: to be under a thirty thousand including the that then 47 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 4: includes the seventy five hundred credit incentive by the federal government. 48 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 3: Oh, it includes it. 49 00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:49,360 Speaker 2: So if that goes away, it no longer becomes affordable. 50 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 3: It still is. 51 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:53,920 Speaker 4: It's still one of the cheapest EV's out there. I 52 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 4: think the new EV's that they're launching coming going forward 53 00:02:58,720 --> 00:03:02,640 Speaker 4: will actually be much lower costs than the current model 54 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 4: three Model Y, so there's still some room for them 55 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:11,680 Speaker 4: to cut prices and also, you know, help help maintain 56 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:15,640 Speaker 4: the automotive gross margin around the you know, eighteen to 57 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 4: twenty percent. 58 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 5: Steve, twenty twenty four feels like a year where the 59 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 5: evolution towards electric vehicleles hit kind of a speed bump 60 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:28,239 Speaker 5: at there A. Is that in fact the case? And 61 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:32,200 Speaker 5: b how do you think about the industries continued evolution 62 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 5: to EV's over the twenty twenty five Yeah. 63 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 4: I think twenty twenty five EV sales will probably be 64 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 4: grown at a single digit and you know, incentives still 65 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 4: going to be a bigger part of the story. But 66 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 4: I think long term, you know, beyond twenty twenty five. 67 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 4: That means twenty twenty six and beyond, I think EV 68 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 4: sales will recover, battery costs. 69 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 6: Will continue to come down. 70 00:03:56,280 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 4: More automakers, not just Tesla, GM and Stilentis are launching 71 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 4: newer and cheaper evs. That's going to be that's going 72 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 4: to resonate with a with a mass market. You know, 73 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 4: a lot of the early adopters have bought evs, and 74 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 4: I think the next leg up is really to get 75 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:16,800 Speaker 4: the general population to buy evs and make it more 76 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:18,039 Speaker 4: affordable for them. 77 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 2: I guess I just wonder, like without the tax credit, 78 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 2: if that goes away, I appreciate that Tesla's still the 79 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:25,839 Speaker 2: cheapest one out there, but that's not going to be Like, 80 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 2: there's no way Paul's buying a thirty eight thousand dollars Tesla, right, Like, 81 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 2: that's not happening. So what has to happen for that 82 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 2: price to get even lower? And I know that it's 83 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 2: a chicken and an egg thing, right because you need 84 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 2: the demand in order to trigger the production, which then 85 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 2: releases lower prices. But that's just not materializing, particularly without 86 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 2: that tax credit, right. 87 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:47,839 Speaker 4: You know, I think we talked about battery costs is 88 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 4: being one of them. The other thing is really. 89 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 6: The charging infrastructure. 90 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 4: You know, I don't think the charging infrastructures has been 91 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 4: expanded to a point where it's convenient for a lot 92 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 4: of the for owners or potential owners of EV's, but 93 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 4: there's a lot of money being poured into it. There's 94 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:07,159 Speaker 4: one company called ev Go. They just got a huge 95 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 4: loan from the federal government to expand. We got a 96 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:14,040 Speaker 4: lot of automakers, major ones, GM. 97 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:14,279 Speaker 6: Ford and. 98 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 4: Hyundai and the likes are actually joining forces together, pulling 99 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:24,599 Speaker 4: capital together to expand the infrastructure. So that's why, you know, 100 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:29,479 Speaker 4: I think, you know, beyond twenty twenty six to beyond 101 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 4: twenty twenty five, we're going to see improved uptick on 102 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 4: EV demand because of not only cheaper EV's, but an 103 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 4: expanded charging infrastructure. 104 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:41,720 Speaker 5: Steve above the auto companies you own, what's the best 105 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:43,920 Speaker 5: position here do you think for what's going to be 106 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:46,800 Speaker 5: a bumpy several years, arguably as as transition continues. 107 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:51,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, I still you know, if I look at the company, 108 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 4: I still prefer Tesla in terms of their fundamentals. There's 109 00:05:56,240 --> 00:06:00,679 Speaker 4: still the lowest cost producers. The next one is GM 110 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:03,440 Speaker 4: and Shanday. You know, they have the best offering at 111 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 4: the moment, and they continue to launch more affordable evs. 112 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:10,800 Speaker 4: On the other end of the spectrum, Ford is actually retrenching. 113 00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:15,680 Speaker 4: They're more focused on commercial EV business rather than the 114 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:21,839 Speaker 4: consumer EV business. So commercial evs there's demand, but obviously 115 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 4: the market is not as big as the consumers. 116 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:27,039 Speaker 3: All right, thanks so much, We appreciate that. 117 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 2: Steve Steve Man Bloomberg Intelligence, Global Autos and Industrials research 118 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 2: analysts joining us on those Tesla delivery numbers. 119 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:39,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch the program 120 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:43,039 Speaker 1: live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android 121 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:46,039 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 122 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 123 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 124 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 5: All right, we started your year green on the screen. 125 00:06:56,279 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 5: The question is do you stick with what got you here? 126 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:00,760 Speaker 5: Kind of the mag set in some of the big 127 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 5: tech themes that have worked for equity investors so well 128 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 5: over the last couple of years, already trying to branch 129 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 5: you out and find some value in other places. Let's 130 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:10,320 Speaker 5: check out with our next guests, on that issue, Kathy 131 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 5: and Twistle Managing Director Morgan Stanley Private Wealth and Management, 132 00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 5: joining us via zoom. So, Katy, what are you telling 133 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 5: your clients this year? I mean, you know, from an 134 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 5: equity respective, the market's really delivered outstanding returns over the 135 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 5: last two years, but again a lot of that was 136 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:27,800 Speaker 5: skewed by a handful of names. 137 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 6: Here. What do you do this year? 138 00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 7: Hey, thanks for having me on today. Happy New Year. 139 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:34,920 Speaker 7: There's a lot to talk about and a lot to 140 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 7: do for clients first day of the year, and with 141 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 7: the mag seven really outperforming, we are telling our clients 142 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 7: to consider like reducing a lot of those positions with 143 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 7: tax harvesting and thinking thoughtfully. A lot of clients are 144 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:55,880 Speaker 7: starting the year off, obviously with the zero tax sum gain, 145 00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 7: and it's a good time to start reducing those positions 146 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 7: looking at other areas because there will be other areas 147 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 7: that will become more robust and better opportunities for clients 148 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 7: going forward. So it's just about diversification in some ways. 149 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:13,200 Speaker 2: Kathy, though this exact conversation could have taken place today 150 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:15,680 Speaker 2: at this exact same time one year ago, and it 151 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 2: still wouldn't have necessarily worked out because you still had 152 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 2: the big guys getting the big gains. 153 00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 7: Absolutely, Alex. When I speak with my clients, I ask them, 154 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 7: you know, what, how are you going to feel at 155 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 7: the end of the year if these positions are much higher, 156 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:32,920 Speaker 7: and then how are you going to feel if they're 157 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:35,680 Speaker 7: much lower? And which one feels worse? And if you 158 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:38,680 Speaker 7: think that if they go down tremendously and that's going 159 00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 7: to feel worse for you, that probably means you're taking 160 00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 7: too much risk for your you know, for your for 161 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 7: your own risk tolerance and portfolio. And by reducing some 162 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 7: of that risk and putting those assets in other areas 163 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:52,640 Speaker 7: of your portfolio, you're actually giving yourself a sleep at 164 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 7: night formula and still having the opportunity to grow your portfolio. 165 00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 5: Is sixty forty Is that still a reasonable fuller construction? 166 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:06,000 Speaker 5: Sixty percent equities, forty percent bonds or alternatives something. 167 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 7: It's it's it definitely has changed over the years, so 168 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:12,720 Speaker 7: sixty forty. And it used to also be like sixty 169 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 7: percent of equities or equity percentage should be what your 170 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 7: age is, and that has also changed tsentry over the years. 171 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 7: So now we're looking at clients' portfolios, we're looking at 172 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 7: a couple of different things. The first thing is do 173 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 7: they have enough money today in order to you know, 174 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 7: reach all of the goals like living comfortably, doing the 175 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:32,559 Speaker 7: things that they want to do, making an impact in 176 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 7: the world, whatever it may be. We want to make 177 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 7: sure they have enough money. So the first thing is 178 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:39,840 Speaker 7: protecting you know, the wealth that the client is built 179 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 7: and being sure that we can create the cash flow 180 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:44,960 Speaker 7: and the income for them, and then secondly being able 181 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 7: to grow it enough to keep up with inflation and 182 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 7: also take advantage of growth opportunities in the market. So 183 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:54,440 Speaker 7: if a client has enough money to do a fifty 184 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 7: percent equity portfolio or fifty five percent equity portfolio, will 185 00:09:57,440 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 7: do that too. We are mixing in other areas of 186 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 7: them markets though, other than just cash, equities and stocks, 187 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 7: in order to achieve some of the target returns that 188 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:10,720 Speaker 7: we're looking for, and that includes alternative investments. 189 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 3: What does alternative investments mean. 190 00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 7: To you guys, Well, to me, it means just like 191 00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 7: a non correlated asset class. Earlier in the program, I 192 00:10:20,840 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 7: think I heard conversations about hedge funds and hedge funds performing, 193 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:29,080 Speaker 7: So we do want to have where it's appropriate some 194 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:31,319 Speaker 7: of those asset classes in our client's portfolio. So it 195 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:34,080 Speaker 7: could be hedge funds, it could be private equity credit. 196 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:36,520 Speaker 7: You know, the whole banking system has this shadow banking 197 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:40,880 Speaker 7: system behind it now with private equity firms and coming 198 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:46,560 Speaker 7: in and providing credit to borrowers, and we are also 199 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 7: providing the opportunity for clients to invest there as well. Again, 200 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:52,760 Speaker 7: it depends on the client and their risk tolerance and 201 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:56,200 Speaker 7: their appropriateness for that type of investment, but it can 202 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:59,640 Speaker 7: make a big difference in terms of not doing exactly 203 00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:02,200 Speaker 7: what the more mart does non correlated asset class and 204 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 7: also providing some nice income returns, especially for those who 205 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:07,959 Speaker 7: are looking from you know, they're in the allocation phase 206 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 7: and now they're going into like the disbursement phase. They're 207 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 7: getting ready to retire, and they want to make sure 208 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 7: they have enough money to live on and not run out. 209 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:17,840 Speaker 5: Kathy, how about in the fixed income space, how much 210 00:11:17,880 --> 00:11:20,960 Speaker 5: credit risk are you suggesting clients take these days? I mean, 211 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:22,440 Speaker 5: if you consider it in a to your treasure and 212 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 5: get four point two five percent, do you need to 213 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:25,680 Speaker 5: do much more than that? 214 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:29,680 Speaker 7: Yeah? What you want to think about is the way 215 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 7: the rates are changing right now as we're seeing is 216 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 7: shorter rates are starting to come down and longer rates 217 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 7: are staying higher. So we're trying to move some of 218 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:44,320 Speaker 7: our clients that have cash or short term cash like 219 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 7: investments like to your treasuries into longer investments so that 220 00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:51,440 Speaker 7: they can lock in those higher rates for longer. And 221 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 7: I think that's a very simple and easy move to 222 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,880 Speaker 7: make right now for clients. So that's what we're trying to. 223 00:11:56,840 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 2: Do, all right, Kathy, Thanks Lott, really appreciate Katy and 224 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:04,079 Speaker 2: still Managing Director Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, appreciate that 225 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 2: really very much. 226 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 227 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarcklay and Android Auto 228 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you 229 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 230 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:25,560 Speaker 5: Let's talk about some fun stuff here, some digital media streaming, 231 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:27,680 Speaker 5: all that kind of stuff. Where's this business going to 232 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:30,600 Speaker 5: be taking us in twenty twenty five. The best person 233 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 5: to chat with that is Mark Douglas, President and CEO 234 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:36,439 Speaker 5: of Mountain. Hey, Mark, I want to start with sports. 235 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:38,960 Speaker 5: We had a time as recently as I don't know 236 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:41,679 Speaker 5: a year, year and a half ago when Netflix says 237 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:47,319 Speaker 5: we're never getting into sports, Well, that's changing, and it's 238 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 5: changing in a big way. How do you think this 239 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 5: last bastion of broadcasting, cable network television in terms of 240 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 5: audience attraction live sports, how do you think that's going 241 00:12:57,080 --> 00:12:59,680 Speaker 5: to migrate this year to streaming? 242 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 8: Well, I think you're seeing a few things happening at 243 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 8: the same time what you just mentioned, which is Netflix 244 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 8: getting into sports. Also ESPN is coming like fully to streaming. 245 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 8: So I think the advertisers really like they still are 246 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 8: addicted to kind of like big audiences watching at the 247 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 8: same time so they can create big moments, and so 248 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:25,320 Speaker 8: these networks they want to commodate that. But they're going 249 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:28,160 Speaker 8: to start accommodating that on streaming in twenty and twenty five. 250 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:29,120 Speaker 6: It's already happening. 251 00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:31,840 Speaker 8: But now you hear from Disney, you hear from Netflix, 252 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:34,079 Speaker 8: they're really going all in on it. I think ESPN 253 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 8: on streaming, really going full in on streaming is a 254 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:37,200 Speaker 8: big deal. 255 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 2: Will the ad revenue for that live streaming of sports 256 00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 2: follow I. 257 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:42,959 Speaker 6: Think it will. 258 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:44,120 Speaker 3: I think the. 259 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:48,720 Speaker 8: Netflix in particular is a big advantage because so many 260 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:51,440 Speaker 8: people go to Netflix as a first source so they 261 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:54,800 Speaker 8: can turn something that might not have been that big 262 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:58,280 Speaker 8: into a big moment. They did that with the Tyson 263 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 8: Jake Paul fight. I think they're going to do that 264 00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:05,319 Speaker 8: with WWE on Monday, where people who normally wouldn't watch 265 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 8: WWE are going to turn on the TV and that's 266 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 8: what they see, and they're going to you know, click 267 00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:13,719 Speaker 8: and watch, and so they able to kind of amplify 268 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:17,439 Speaker 8: these sports events. But Disney with ABC and all the 269 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 8: other and especially ESPN, also has an ability to deliver 270 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 8: a big audience. 271 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 6: I think they'll do the same. 272 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 5: You were bullish, really you were really early on on 273 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 5: the Netflix story, Mark. Are you still as bullish about them, 274 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:35,240 Speaker 5: because one could argue it's a whole new competitive landscape 275 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:36,680 Speaker 5: here these days. 276 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think where you go first, you know, in 277 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:44,680 Speaker 8: some sense the modern day TV guy is. 278 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 6: A really really big deal. 279 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 8: And as long as Netflix owns that spot, I think 280 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 8: there's data to show that, well more than fifty percent 281 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 8: of people when they turn on the TV, the first app, 282 00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 8: because now you like start an app rather than change a. 283 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 6: Channel, the first app they go to is Netflix. 284 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 8: As long as you own that spot, you will own, 285 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:10,400 Speaker 8: you know, kind of be the leader in streaming, and 286 00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:13,840 Speaker 8: but it requires a big investment in content. People go 287 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 8: there first because that's the first place they think there's 288 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 8: going to be new content. So Netflix is going to 289 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:21,800 Speaker 8: have to keep beating that machine. And they're doing it now, 290 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 8: and they're doing it profitably. So you know, all of 291 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 8: that combined, I think keeps them in the lead until 292 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 8: they they until they make a strategic error essentially, and 293 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 8: maybe you know, get cheap about how much there willing 294 00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 8: to spend on content, people abandon them. 295 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 2: So you guys, I found the one movie that's not 296 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:41,960 Speaker 2: on streaming really, Yes, I tried to bring it up 297 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 2: yesterday to show my daughter and it was nowhere. You 298 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:48,560 Speaker 2: couldn't even buy it on Apple TV. Okay, Well, Nuns 299 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 2: on the Run nineteen ninety British comedy with Eric Idel 300 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 2: and Robbie Coltrane could not find it. It was very 301 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 2: upsetting interesting putting this up. 302 00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:58,760 Speaker 5: That's what that's what you were searching for. 303 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 2: Yes, well, we went on a whole eighties movie thing, 304 00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:02,920 Speaker 2: which then brought us some of the nineties movies. So 305 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 2: we did Clue and then Clue got into Back to 306 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 2: the Future and then you know, Robbie Coltrane was Hagrid 307 00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 2: and Harry Potter. It's all derivative plays at the room anyway, 308 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 2: apropos of absolutely nothing. I just thought it was amazing 309 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 2: that I found the one movie that wasn't on streaming. 310 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:20,400 Speaker 2: Mark when it comes to the next step, then are 311 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 2: we gonna see bundles? 312 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 3: Like you said, it's Netflix is like basically raced to 313 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 3: lose at the end of the day. So do the 314 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 3: other guys start bundles? 315 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:32,000 Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean consolidate bundles in the form of acquisitions. 316 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 6: I think. 317 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 8: So there's some loose bundles now that don't involve acquisitions. 318 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:40,120 Speaker 8: But I mean what's happening in twenty twenty five is 319 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 8: every network is all in on streaming. 320 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:43,560 Speaker 6: I mean I. 321 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 8: Talked to executives at all these networks. This is pretty 322 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 8: regularly all that I mean, linear doesn't even come out 323 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 8: of their mouth anymore. 324 00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:51,480 Speaker 6: That's a legacy business. 325 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 8: You know, the viewers are still there, so they still 326 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:57,120 Speaker 8: have to migrate them, but they only want to talk 327 00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,520 Speaker 8: about streaming and the you know, the big one. I've 328 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:02,640 Speaker 8: said this many times are the ones where I can 329 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 8: name them and you can. 330 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,160 Speaker 6: Tell me why you go there and watch them, and. 331 00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:09,560 Speaker 8: So those winners are going to started consolidating the buy content, 332 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 8: and it's already under way, and that that that's kind 333 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:15,560 Speaker 8: of what's going to have that bundles in the form 334 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:19,159 Speaker 8: of let's just start buying content and buying these brands 335 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:22,359 Speaker 8: which are going to disappear like old you know, car 336 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:26,440 Speaker 8: companies that that you never hear about anymore. 337 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:27,680 Speaker 6: Something you know, similar to that. 338 00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 5: So are the economics Are they as good in streaming mark? 339 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:34,480 Speaker 5: Do we know that? I mean, it seems like they're 340 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 5: pretty good for Netflix. 341 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 8: They're good for Netflix, and I think starting to get 342 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:42,439 Speaker 8: good for Disney and you know, it's when do you 343 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 8: reach a critical mass of subscribers that is more than 344 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,919 Speaker 8: your cost of acquisition for the consumers and the costs 345 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:53,399 Speaker 8: of the content. And Netflix is clearly at that point. 346 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:56,640 Speaker 8: I think Disney is. If not, I think I think 347 00:17:57,000 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 8: Disney Plus is now profitable. I hope they don't underinvest 348 00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:05,400 Speaker 8: in content to maintain that profitability and so and a. 349 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:06,600 Speaker 6: Few others are going to follow. 350 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:09,719 Speaker 8: I think the business is going to become very, very profitable, 351 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 8: and it's going to go back to being a growth business. 352 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:15,280 Speaker 8: That's been the story of linear is it grows at 353 00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:18,240 Speaker 8: one percent a year, and streaming has obviously grown a 354 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 8: lot faster, so hopefully the whole industry is going to 355 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:21,399 Speaker 8: grow a lot faster. 356 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 2: If everyone's talking about streaming, are the ad pricing that 357 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 2: a streamer can get as good as linear? 358 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:31,879 Speaker 3: And then if not, when does that ship turn? 359 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:34,560 Speaker 6: Yeah, it is as good. 360 00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:38,439 Speaker 8: The ad load is not quite as high, and so 361 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 8: consumers are probably happy about that. They see fewer ads, 362 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 8: but the ad load will probably catch up, and so 363 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 8: the pricing is about the same, meaning how much money 364 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 8: can you make per consumer is about the same. One 365 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:54,440 Speaker 8: thing also just switching back gear, so you know, kind 366 00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,800 Speaker 8: of the previous topic. The interesting thing about Netflix is 367 00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 8: they're profitable while they're bringing one out of every two 368 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:05,360 Speaker 8: subscribers is paying the lowest possible price with ads supported, 369 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 8: and they're not selling many ads right, They're still relatively 370 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 8: small in the ad game, and so it bodes well 371 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:14,560 Speaker 8: for how profitable this company is going to become. I 372 00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:16,920 Speaker 8: think it's five pot ninety nine price point is the 373 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:22,560 Speaker 8: cheapest price point to join Netflix, and they remain profitable, 374 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:26,359 Speaker 8: not actually expanding profits at that price point, and the 375 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:28,879 Speaker 8: media dollars are going to show up and make this 376 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 8: company incredibly profitable. So that's back to the question about 377 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:36,439 Speaker 8: you know, is the industry going to grow, Is the 378 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 8: profitability going to be there? Yeah, it's going to be 379 00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:40,960 Speaker 8: there pretty big and particularly pretty large for Netflix. 380 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 5: Is there a sense mark how many streamers can be 381 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 5: economically supported in this marketplace? 382 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 8: You mean, in terms, there's I wouldn't call it unlimited 383 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:57,000 Speaker 8: demand for TV advertising, but there's a lot of demand. 384 00:19:57,040 --> 00:20:00,119 Speaker 8: The pricing has been coming down a bit because of 385 00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:03,359 Speaker 8: the competition you had in twenty you know, like Netflix 386 00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:07,440 Speaker 8: started to really come on board, Disney plus Amazon Prime. 387 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 8: Now every subscriber receives ads. There's not even a way 388 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 8: to opt out, and so all of that news inventory 389 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,399 Speaker 8: is definitely bringing prices down, triggering a little bit of 390 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,359 Speaker 8: a price war, But I think that'll shake out when 391 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,199 Speaker 8: you combine that with the acquisition spree that's probably going 392 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,200 Speaker 8: to happen over the next few years. I think pricing 393 00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 8: will temporarily dip then start to go back up. And 394 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 8: the main thing is you have a lot of new 395 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:35,480 Speaker 8: advertisers coming in and market a lot smaller younger, mid 396 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:38,800 Speaker 8: sized companies, smaller companies and bringing new revenue that will 397 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,040 Speaker 8: drive up revenue for the whole industry, Mark, are. 398 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:44,359 Speaker 2: We ever going to see the streamers get really into 399 00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:46,399 Speaker 2: news talking about live I know that some of them 400 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:50,600 Speaker 2: have their own streaming news part, right, like CBS now, 401 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:51,080 Speaker 2: et cetera. 402 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:53,680 Speaker 3: How do you think that part evolves? 403 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 6: I think probably not. 404 00:20:56,240 --> 00:21:00,040 Speaker 8: And the reason is is because you know, like no 405 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:03,320 Speaker 8: one really I think fully understood in the recent years 406 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 8: that like social media is a big competitor in news, 407 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:09,199 Speaker 8: so they get the kind of news that people are 408 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:14,119 Speaker 8: getting literally right now listening to you the the I 409 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:16,639 Speaker 8: don't see, you know, I think that's going to remain 410 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:21,600 Speaker 8: relatively independent. I don't see like Netflix and Disney getting 411 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:25,880 Speaker 8: into that and and so. And I've never, honestly never 412 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 8: hear from any of these companies about news. They only 413 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:30,680 Speaker 8: want to talk about sports and entertainment. 414 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:31,160 Speaker 6: Yeah. 415 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 5: Uh, Mark, So what happens to some of those linear 416 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:37,119 Speaker 5: networks that we all grew up with? The Did the 417 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 5: media companies just let them die a slow, natural death? 418 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:42,880 Speaker 6: Yeah? 419 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:46,960 Speaker 8: You know, that's a really tough question to answer, the 420 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:51,320 Speaker 8: the because I wonder that myself, and I can't say 421 00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:53,639 Speaker 8: I have a response. I just don't see like a 422 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 8: brand like CNN just disappearing. It's just too strong a brand, 423 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,600 Speaker 8: but it's going and need to go through some evolution. 424 00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:03,919 Speaker 6: Clearly people aren't showing up for that. 425 00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:07,399 Speaker 8: The other thing that competing with that mentioned social media's podcasts. 426 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:11,440 Speaker 8: You know, there are numerous podcasts that have more viewers 427 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 8: per day than like CNN and so and buy a lot, 428 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,040 Speaker 8: not a little, and through multiple outlets, you know, like 429 00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:21,000 Speaker 8: podcasting and YouTube. 430 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 6: And things like that. 431 00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:24,480 Speaker 8: So I think that's still evolving, but I don't see 432 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,360 Speaker 8: the you know, brand like CNN just like disappearing. 433 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:29,160 Speaker 6: It's but it's going to have to am. 434 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,159 Speaker 2: All right, Hey, Mark, we really appreciate it. Thanks for 435 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:33,720 Speaker 2: hanging on with us. Mark Douglas joining US president and 436 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:35,360 Speaker 2: CEO of Mountain. 437 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:40,600 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 438 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:44,280 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 439 00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 1: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, 440 00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:51,680 Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 441 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 442 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,680 Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal