WEBVTT - 521 | Checking in on Our Breakout Picks for Each Team: American League 0:00:01.720 --> 0:00:04.040 Any Swiss high. 0:00:07.680 --> 0:00:19.360 Understanding deep the center field and it's gone, Wow, his 0:00:19.560 --> 0:00:23.759 first big league swing is gonna be a grand Slam, 0:00:23.840 --> 0:00:25.480 a home line swing. 0:00:25.640 --> 0:00:33.880 Good time to look to them solve. Time to audit 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:36.320 ourselves a little bit here on the call up, we 0:00:36.520 --> 0:00:40.840 are checking in on the breakout predictions for the American 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:45.040 League teams. Arm Lton Jack McMullen. We are to have 0:00:45.080 --> 0:00:46.760 all thirty that we did this year is the first 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:48.239 time that we did it going into the season where 0:00:48.280 --> 0:00:52.519 we did breakout picks for a prospect in each organization. 0:00:52.600 --> 0:00:54.560 And when we did that episode, you remember, I was like, 0:00:54.640 --> 0:00:56.200 some of these just really tough. I kind of felt 0:00:56.200 --> 0:00:58.319 like a forced one. It'll be fun to see if 0:00:58.360 --> 0:01:00.680 those aged well. Some of them did not, and I 0:01:00.760 --> 0:01:04.039 can acknowledge that a couple that were forced definitely appear 0:01:04.080 --> 0:01:06.240 to be forced in our midway check in, but we're 0:01:06.240 --> 0:01:07.959 gonna kind of get a pulse, right, We're halfway through 0:01:07.959 --> 0:01:09.920 the minor league and major league season, so a little 0:01:09.920 --> 0:01:11.800 bit more than halfway through the minor league season. We 0:01:11.880 --> 0:01:14.479 can check in on the numbers say to this point, 0:01:14.959 --> 0:01:17.840 is is it a breakout? Is it valid? Was the 0:01:17.880 --> 0:01:18.520 prediction right? 0:01:18.720 --> 0:01:19.240 Or is it not? 0:01:19.680 --> 0:01:23.720 And also kind of evaluate what went wrong or right, 0:01:24.000 --> 0:01:26.120 and then the last thing will be if it's not 0:01:26.440 --> 0:01:28.680 the guy that we picked who is breaking out in 0:01:28.720 --> 0:01:30.120 this system. I'm excited to do it. 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:32.080 It's gonna be fun, man. Yeah, we can do like 0:01:32.160 --> 0:01:33.760 kind of a two parter here. We're gonna go team 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:36.480 by team and we'll start with the American League and 0:01:36.520 --> 0:01:39.000 then pivot to the National League for part two of this. 0:01:39.640 --> 0:01:42.440 I feel like every single like every single thought that 0:01:42.520 --> 0:01:44.280 we have on the call up immediately turns into like 0:01:44.319 --> 0:01:46.000 a two parter or a three parter. So this is 0:01:46.160 --> 0:01:48.720 right on par with what we got going. But we'll 0:01:48.720 --> 0:01:51.280 go AL East, then AL Central, and AL West. And 0:01:51.680 --> 0:01:54.000 I ran you through the names and I was like, 0:01:55.000 --> 0:01:56.920 you know, I was reading you the names and you 0:01:56.960 --> 0:01:59.600 were like, Okay, which league did I nail in particular? 0:02:00.520 --> 0:02:02.640 Pretty spread out across the board, and you mentioned there 0:02:02.680 --> 0:02:04.800 are some that might be flubs, but there are others 0:02:04.840 --> 0:02:06.680 that it's like, holy smokes, you were on it, like, 0:02:07.040 --> 0:02:09.240 not to spoil it, but Nathan Fluelling with the Rays, 0:02:09.320 --> 0:02:12.840 Devin Fitzgerald with the Nationals, but there could be some 0:02:13.160 --> 0:02:15.799 tweemers as well. So really excited to get into it. 0:02:15.919 --> 0:02:17.679 That's where we're on you. It's a you got to 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:21.000 give us the thumbs up or thumbs down. Sorry, you're 0:02:21.040 --> 0:02:21.440 the judge. 0:02:22.080 --> 0:02:24.560 Yeah, on those. We'll start with the guy who is 0:02:25.040 --> 0:02:28.280 thumbs down unfortunately at this point, but you have to 0:02:28.400 --> 0:02:30.120 judge him a little bit differently. We'll start with the 0:02:30.160 --> 0:02:33.560 Toronto Blue Jays. Your breakout pick was Juan Sanchez, a teenager. 0:02:33.760 --> 0:02:36.400 Juan Sanchez an eighteen year old from the Dominican Republic 0:02:36.960 --> 0:02:39.040 playing a lot of shortstop right now, playing a lot 0:02:39.080 --> 0:02:40.119 of third base as well. 0:02:40.840 --> 0:02:41.640 In the DSL. 0:02:42.040 --> 0:02:44.600 In fifty six games in twenty twenty five, he had 0:02:44.639 --> 0:02:47.160 an OPS over one thousand, He hit three forty, he 0:02:47.280 --> 0:02:50.040 had a four to forty OVP, he had eight home runs. 0:02:50.560 --> 0:02:52.359 Then he goes to dun Eden, so he skips the 0:02:52.360 --> 0:02:55.600 Florida Complex League entirely, and he's sitting two thirty six 0:02:55.680 --> 0:02:58.000 with the six to eighty two OPS in fifty three games. 0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:01.840 Walk right has dipped a bit, wrikeouts have climbed a bit, 0:03:02.280 --> 0:03:05.280 and the power not as prodigious in a low way 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:08.080 as it was in the DSL. It's tough. He's eighteen 0:03:08.200 --> 0:03:09.919 years old. How do you assess this pick? 0:03:10.280 --> 0:03:12.440 Well, I'm actually really excited. I'm gonna watch him play tonight. 0:03:12.520 --> 0:03:14.880 I'm gonna go with Jupiter dunninged Ins in town. I'm 0:03:14.880 --> 0:03:18.400 gonna get to see uh Montanchez and of course Jojo Parker. 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:22.160 This is one where I say, wait a little bit, 0:03:22.240 --> 0:03:24.240 because it has been better. We actually just mentioned him 0:03:24.240 --> 0:03:26.239 on the heat sheet with the way that he performed 0:03:26.280 --> 0:03:28.880 over the last couple weeks. And this is usually like 0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:32.240 the selective stats thing where like you kind of hope 0:03:32.320 --> 0:03:33.919 that right where he picks up when you're going in 0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:36.400 the game logs of fangrafts fits like a round number 0:03:36.560 --> 0:03:38.440 where it's like, oh, hopefully it's the last thirty games, 0:03:38.840 --> 0:03:41.000 the last thirty one games. This is the classic, like 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:43.480 since he's been hitting, he's been hitting this. But he 0:03:43.520 --> 0:03:46.080 had a multi hit game on on May fifteenth, and 0:03:46.200 --> 0:03:49.640 since then, Sanchez hitting three seventeen with a one twenty 0:03:49.800 --> 0:03:52.760 WRC plus three eleven or sorry, yeah, with a three 0:03:52.800 --> 0:03:54.960 sixty one OBP and a four sixty seven slug So 0:03:55.520 --> 0:03:58.760 it's it's solid. It's three eleven excuse me, three eleven, 0:03:59.040 --> 0:04:01.400 three sixty one, four sixty seven slash line of one 0:04:01.400 --> 0:04:04.200 to twenty WRC plus, So geez. The pitching in this 0:04:04.320 --> 0:04:06.119 league is terrible. So usually the four to state league 0:04:06.120 --> 0:04:07.600 that slash line would give you a lot better off 0:04:07.600 --> 0:04:10.160 a WRC plus. But point being, he's been a lot 0:04:10.240 --> 0:04:13.680 better of late kids skipped a level and making the 0:04:13.720 --> 0:04:16.840 acclamation state side. I think there's still time for this 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:20.400 to be a correct pick. But obviously he didn't jump out. 0:04:20.320 --> 0:04:20.680 Of the gate. 0:04:20.800 --> 0:04:22.840 Maybe the way that you'd want to break out prediction 0:04:23.000 --> 0:04:23.760 to jump out. 0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:26.160 Got you okay. Next one that we got to talk 0:04:26.200 --> 0:04:29.200 about here and it pertains to the Baltimore Orioles. You're 0:04:29.200 --> 0:04:32.520 looking really sharp on this one. Joseph's Zurwa, the left 0:04:32.520 --> 0:04:36.200 hander in the Orioles system. Zurwa so far this year 0:04:36.279 --> 0:04:39.840 has been a very intriguing arm in the oriole system, 0:04:39.880 --> 0:04:41.680 and he's a guy that has climbed to the mid 0:04:41.800 --> 0:04:43.920 levels of the minor leagues. Twenty two year old second 0:04:43.960 --> 0:04:47.120 round pick last year at Michigan State, and Zurwa is 0:04:47.279 --> 0:04:50.160 already in double A forty and two thirds innings with 0:04:50.240 --> 0:04:52.840 Hia Frederick at a two to two Erra punched out 0:04:52.960 --> 0:04:56.400 fifty to ten walks, jumps up to double A Chesapeake 0:04:56.760 --> 0:04:59.039 and in thirty five and two thirds innings. This guy's 0:04:59.080 --> 0:05:01.800 a two eight erra, no home runs allowed in one 0:05:01.880 --> 0:05:04.760 hundred and fifty batters faced. He's punched out forty six 0:05:04.920 --> 0:05:08.040 and walked nine. So when you compare or when you 0:05:08.200 --> 0:05:10.840 combine his hi A in double A numbers so far 0:05:10.960 --> 0:05:13.760 this year, a twenty two year old in his first 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:16.760 taste of professional baseball is at seventy six and the 0:05:16.839 --> 0:05:21.080 third innings on June thirtieth, with ninety six punchouts, nineteen walks, 0:05:21.160 --> 0:05:24.359 and two home runs allowed in over three hundred batters faced. 0:05:24.720 --> 0:05:26.279 Is he gonna be the second minor leaguer to one 0:05:26.320 --> 0:05:27.800 hundred k's after Seth Hernandez. 0:05:28.760 --> 0:05:30.680 I think so. I'm trying to I was gonna pull 0:05:30.720 --> 0:05:32.679 up the leaderboards and by the way, the Blue Jays 0:05:32.760 --> 0:05:34.760 breakout pick the one that would have been correct, as 0:05:34.839 --> 0:05:38.400 Sean Keys hit his way from Hya where he wasn't 0:05:38.400 --> 0:05:40.680 even good last year really to the big league, so 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:42.880 should have known. I wish I had the crystal ball 0:05:42.960 --> 0:05:45.960 on Sean Keys. Really awesome to see him breakout. Jureuah 0:05:46.080 --> 0:05:49.000 was a little bit more low hanging fruit, I think 0:05:49.080 --> 0:05:50.960 to a degree, just because of the way that he 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:53.920 he threw in spring, but that aways always gonna be 0:05:53.960 --> 0:05:56.240 baked into this, so I don't think. I think ans 0:05:56.279 --> 0:05:57.599 in which we'll get to is more of the low 0:05:57.640 --> 0:06:00.919 hanging fruit Jureoe. I think is was still a pretty 0:06:01.000 --> 0:06:04.480 pretty solid pick because of how much better he's been 0:06:04.839 --> 0:06:06.720 than even I think you would have expected if you 0:06:06.760 --> 0:06:09.040 were high on him. He really feels like this this 0:06:09.240 --> 0:06:11.720 year's Quinn Matthews. When what we saw kind of Quinn 0:06:11.800 --> 0:06:14.479 Matthews coming out party in his first full pro season, 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:18.600 where the stuff ticks up in terms of V Low's up, 0:06:19.200 --> 0:06:22.440 feel for the secondaries is improved, and the quality of 0:06:22.520 --> 0:06:25.920 the secondaries has improved. And Jurwa similarly, it was like 0:06:26.720 --> 0:06:31.080 good command low nineties fastball, really good change up. That 0:06:31.200 --> 0:06:33.600 was kind of the story with Quinn Matthews, right, pitchability guy, 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:36.160 maybe we'll be back end guy. And now Ga you know, 0:06:36.320 --> 0:06:39.800 adds that cutter slider Sharper didn't quite see the Vlow 0:06:39.839 --> 0:06:41.560 jump as much as Quinn Matthews, but still saw the 0:06:41.640 --> 0:06:43.920 Vlow jump a little bit, and you have this just 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:46.760 ridiculously impressive arsenal all of a sudden across the board 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:50.039 and with the pitch ability still married. Now Matthews lost 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:52.280 that over the last two years, and that's a whole 0:06:52.279 --> 0:06:55.760 different story. But ZEROA. You really see that that feel 0:06:55.839 --> 0:06:59.040 to pitch with the enhanced stuff resulting in just pure dominance. 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:01.680 Right, So happy with this pick. No adjustments. 0:07:02.560 --> 0:07:04.400 Can't say I would adjust this one. I don't think 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:07.400 there's anybody in the osystem, you know, with as much 0:07:07.440 --> 0:07:09.040 helium as as Surewell, right now. 0:07:09.760 --> 0:07:12.119 How about the Yankees? Your pick? Was that your heard 0:07:12.480 --> 0:07:16.800 so far this year? Heard? He has been alright. If 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:19.600 I'm not mistaken, I'm pulling up the numbers right now. 0:07:19.640 --> 0:07:21.840 If Thatcher heard twenty three year old, he's a form 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:25.360 of the former LSU Tiger. Limited to eight starts so 0:07:25.520 --> 0:07:28.240 far this year, but that youer heard five starts in 0:07:28.360 --> 0:07:32.000 Tampa nineteen inning z walk twelve, did punch out twenty nine. 0:07:32.600 --> 0:07:35.120 It has been a rough go for Thatcher heard, yeah. 0:07:34.960 --> 0:07:38.040 Coming off injury, so I maybe I was hoping he'd 0:07:38.080 --> 0:07:41.800 kind of just lie right through and have the success. 0:07:41.880 --> 0:07:44.160 And of course there's been a little bit of that 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:47.600 I think acclamation process to just getting back from the 0:07:47.720 --> 0:07:51.240 injury and coming back from TJ. But I think the 0:07:51.440 --> 0:07:54.120 stuff is there. He's also pitching at low A, so 0:07:54.200 --> 0:07:56.200 the strikeout numbers, it's going to be difficult to fully 0:07:56.320 --> 0:07:59.440 fully assess that because you kind of expect to college 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:02.520 on with this to be able to overwhelm hitters. But 0:08:02.680 --> 0:08:05.920 last time out for Herd four and two thirds, one hit, 0:08:06.320 --> 0:08:09.880 no runs, two walks, ten k's. He's struck out now 0:08:10.000 --> 0:08:15.160 eighteen in his last nine innings, so that is encouraging. 0:08:15.280 --> 0:08:16.760 But he's also doing it in a low A as 0:08:16.760 --> 0:08:20.120 a college on, but he's building up, So I obviously 0:08:20.200 --> 0:08:22.760 there's there's probably a better pick in a Yankee system, 0:08:22.840 --> 0:08:24.040 and that's what I want to kind of go dial 0:08:24.160 --> 0:08:25.680 up right now and see who would have been a 0:08:25.760 --> 0:08:28.680 better selection. But I think there's a little bit of 0:08:28.760 --> 0:08:30.960 time still for him to sprint through the finish line. 0:08:30.960 --> 0:08:33.320 I just don't think enough to quantify as a breakout, 0:08:33.559 --> 0:08:35.319 you know, coming back from the injury. It just hasn't 0:08:35.320 --> 0:08:36.080 happened as quickly. 0:08:36.960 --> 0:08:39.320 Yeah, college arm. You hope that he you know, kind 0:08:39.320 --> 0:08:41.680 of hits the ground running and gets to the upper minors. 0:08:41.800 --> 0:08:44.960 But not really going to too well for thatcher Herd 0:08:45.040 --> 0:08:47.400 right now, and again he is in low A as 0:08:47.440 --> 0:08:49.800 it stands, you got a Yankee pick or not so much. 0:08:49.920 --> 0:08:54.000 Looking at the bats right now, not great on the 0:08:54.120 --> 0:08:56.960 bats side. There's always a pitcher, though, like there's always 0:08:57.000 --> 0:08:59.480 a pitcher, I feel like that ends up surprising you 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:02.360 and performing really well. But right now, I mean, I 0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:05.079 don't think there's a clear cut guy that you'd say 0:09:05.120 --> 0:09:08.160 relative to expectations, unless I'm forgetting somebody you know, is 0:09:08.440 --> 0:09:11.480 outright breaking out in this system per se, which is 0:09:11.520 --> 0:09:12.800 gonna be interesting because you know they're gonna want to 0:09:12.800 --> 0:09:15.240 be aggressive at the deadline. But yeah, when I look 0:09:15.320 --> 0:09:19.400 across good players like Elmer's thrown well, I'm Rodriguez is 0:09:19.400 --> 0:09:21.920 thrown well, Like, I don't think anybody's full fledged, really 0:09:22.120 --> 0:09:24.080 broken out per se in the system. 0:09:24.640 --> 0:09:27.320 Yeah, all right, Uh, you nailed the breakout pick as 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:29.480 it pertains to the Tampa Bay Rays. Here, nineteen year 0:09:29.480 --> 0:09:33.079 old catcher Nathan Fluelling was your breakout pick coming into 0:09:33.080 --> 0:09:36.040 the year nineteen year old in a HIGHYA through sixty 0:09:36.080 --> 0:09:39.560 five games, fourteen homers, forty two driven in, hitting two 0:09:39.679 --> 0:09:42.280 sixty with a three to ninety OVP and an eight 0:09:42.480 --> 0:09:46.000 seventy six ops. He is three years younger than the 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:50.199 league average hitter in HYA. Nineteen years old. This is 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:52.000 not only the breakout pick of the Rays, this is 0:09:52.080 --> 0:09:54.199 one of the breakout players in Minor League Baseball. 0:09:54.600 --> 0:09:57.520 Yeah, I love this kid, and I felt like from 0:09:57.559 --> 0:09:59.480 what we saw last year, and we've talked about Welling 0:09:59.480 --> 0:10:01.040 a little bit on the show now already because of 0:10:01.080 --> 0:10:03.240 the year that he's having, But what we saw from 0:10:03.640 --> 0:10:06.959 last year as a player that was extremely young as 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:10.040 a collegiate or as excuse me as a prep catcher 0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:12.959 going straight to full season ball and handling it the 0:10:13.000 --> 0:10:15.959 way that he did and with the peripherals, the raw 0:10:16.080 --> 0:10:19.640 power was there, the patience was there, the arm strength 0:10:19.720 --> 0:10:21.360 behind the dish was there, and that's why I'm like, Okay, 0:10:21.840 --> 0:10:24.480 some of this kid's parts are really impressive. And talking 0:10:24.520 --> 0:10:27.800 to some people around the Rays organization, they all said, 0:10:28.120 --> 0:10:30.160 this kid is ahead of his years. Like we love 0:10:30.200 --> 0:10:32.679 the way he goes about his business, and there's more 0:10:32.720 --> 0:10:34.400 power in there that would always be like the follow 0:10:34.480 --> 0:10:36.320 up too, And so when you hear that side too, 0:10:36.360 --> 0:10:39.439 when you see the underlying, it was all exciting. He 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:41.920 had this kind of big move I've talked about where 0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:43.439 the hands would start by a Sternham and then go 0:10:43.480 --> 0:10:45.040 all the way like pull all the way back. It 0:10:45.160 --> 0:10:48.079 was hard at time, and he has completely overhauled that 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:50.319 to where now sands are on a more traditional spot, 0:10:50.600 --> 0:10:52.600 you know, kind of sitting up high by his back, 0:10:52.880 --> 0:10:55.160 by his ear, and it's a simple move, and I 0:10:55.200 --> 0:10:57.880 think he's able to repeat his moves more consistently, be 0:10:58.000 --> 0:10:59.800 on time, and get the barrel out a little bit quicker. 0:10:59.840 --> 0:11:02.200 And now we're seeing that results in that raw power 0:11:02.320 --> 0:11:04.600 turn into more game power. He's still nineteen years old, 0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:08.360 so you pair that with the fact that you can 0:11:08.400 --> 0:11:10.560 develop into an above average catcher and has the makeup 0:11:10.600 --> 0:11:13.680 to be a good, just solid piece behind the dish. 0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:16.360 And you mentioned being so young for the level. Usually 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:18.120 what you see with the guys that are really young 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:20.400 for the level, and this is a generalization, but it's 0:11:20.440 --> 0:11:22.839 something that like anecdotally, I could tell you I've just 0:11:22.880 --> 0:11:24.599 seen so so so many times that if I was 0:11:24.600 --> 0:11:26.240 able to somehow run, the numbers would back it up. 0:11:27.000 --> 0:11:28.840 The younger guys at the level that are even performing 0:11:28.880 --> 0:11:33.000 pretty well, they are crushing fastballs and maybe the approach 0:11:33.120 --> 0:11:36.160 is pretty good, but a lot of times the numbers 0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:39.000 aren't quite up to par with the secondaries, and it's 0:11:39.080 --> 0:11:41.319 usually just, hey, this is a really talented hitter that's 0:11:41.320 --> 0:11:45.120 feasting on fastballs and patient enough on the secondaries. You 0:11:45.160 --> 0:11:48.000 don't usually see eight's across the board, like you see 0:11:48.040 --> 0:11:51.240 with Foelling, eight sixty one ops against fastballs, eight fifty 0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:54.720 one ops against breaking balls, eight seventy six ops against 0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:58.000 splitters and changeups. That to me is a hitter that's 0:11:58.040 --> 0:11:58.840 just ahead of his years. 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:03.960 Thing the Rays have. It seems like so many guys 0:12:04.040 --> 0:12:08.200 that you can choose from. But Fluelling was the slam 0:12:08.320 --> 0:12:10.679 dunk pick, and you have another slam dunk pick with 0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:14.240 the Boston Red Sox Anthony Ironson. You mentioned a little chalky. 0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:16.559 A lot of people like ianson in spring training just 0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:19.040 because of how loud the stuff was, and Ironsen is 0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:21.640 proving the truthers rights. 0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:22.280 Yeah. 0:12:22.320 --> 0:12:24.800 I don't think there were doubters, but he's proving his 0:12:25.200 --> 0:12:26.719 truthers rights. Yeah. 0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:29.559 This is oh sorry, go ahead, No, you're good. 0:12:29.679 --> 0:12:31.959 In fifty and two thirds innings for ionin across twelve 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:34.920 starts between high A and double A, seven starts in 0:12:34.920 --> 0:12:37.000 double as a twenty one year old, he's got a 0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:40.000 one point oh seventy RRA, six earned runs and fifty 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:42.760 and two thirds with sixty four punch outs to nineteen walks. 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:46.880 Yeah, he's just he's just too polished, I think for 0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:50.040 these these hitters, even a double A. He's a cut 0:12:50.480 --> 0:12:53.079 cut ride guy, and then you have the arsenal that 0:12:53.200 --> 0:12:54.959 just really works well off of itself in just a 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:58.160 vertical tunnel where it's the cut ride fastball, then a 0:12:58.280 --> 0:13:00.480 cutter below that, and then he'll throw so you know, 0:13:00.559 --> 0:13:02.640 a gyro slider below that, and then we'll have the 0:13:02.760 --> 0:13:06.440 downer curveball below that, and it's just all different speeds 0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:10.079 and all very difficult to differentiate out of the hand 0:13:10.080 --> 0:13:12.640 because everything kind of looks like he's coming around it. 0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:14.559 Even the fastball, he's kind of coming around it. So 0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:16.880 you know, sometimes hitters can maybe pick it up a 0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:19.280 little bit because you see him come around the side 0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:20.800 of the ball and say, okay, here comes to breaking 0:13:20.840 --> 0:13:22.920 ball and you see the spin different. Everything looks like that. 0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:26.920 So it's creating this very difficult tunnel for hitters. And 0:13:27.000 --> 0:13:30.320 anytime you take a good command guy and you up 0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:33.480 the stuff, it's generally gonna age, you know, or it's 0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:36.800 generally gonna turn into two quite good results. It's funny 0:13:36.840 --> 0:13:40.200 now Ianson has become so popular that I actually feel 0:13:40.280 --> 0:13:43.439 like I skew a little bit lower on him than 0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:45.240 some of the other in the industry. I took the 0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:47.640 layup of the breakout. There's just nobody better to pick 0:13:47.720 --> 0:13:51.480 than Ianson. But at the same time, I do have 0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:53.840 some concerns, Like the stuff works well off of each other, 0:13:53.920 --> 0:13:56.160 but I do have some concerns about how he can 0:13:56.240 --> 0:13:58.800 keep lefties at bay with everything still kind of working 0:13:58.840 --> 0:14:02.839 glove side and the strikeout rate has dipped pretty significantly. 0:14:02.880 --> 0:14:05.040 We're working with small samples at double A, so I 0:14:05.120 --> 0:14:06.920 think you can do a good job of avoiding barrels 0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:08.640 for the most part because of the tunneling effect and 0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:11.000 how it can be different difficult to differentiate things out 0:14:11.040 --> 0:14:14.880 of the hand. However, I do think that like there's 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:17.880 some normalization to these numbers coming, and there is going 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:19.840 to be a challenge, you know. I think, what this 0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:21.360 is the thing with the big leagues too, and you're 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:22.800 trying to project these guys up to the big leagues. 0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:25.280 There's more left tened hitters than like ever, and every 0:14:25.320 --> 0:14:26.720 team has a left e that they can you know, 0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:29.440 they can go lefty heavy lineup. What does Ionson do 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:30.920 when he's got to see seven Like if you had 0:14:30.960 --> 0:14:33.760 to see the Marlins right now, dude, and they put 0:14:34.000 --> 0:14:37.560 seven lefties in there, That's where I'm interested to see, 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:39.960 like that's where it's going to be tough, So I 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:42.480 think there's a little bit more refinement and execution can 0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:45.280 help that. But I do think he's more of a 0:14:46.160 --> 0:14:48.360 fifty to seventy range top one hundred guy and not 0:14:48.480 --> 0:14:50.920 a twenty to forty range like I've seen elsewhere. 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:53.160 Can I give you a take that I've been just 0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:56.560 like it's just kind of been I don't know, stewing 0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:58.240 in my brain for a little bit. I think I 0:14:58.320 --> 0:15:01.080 have a new best pitch in baseball. It's a right 0:15:01.160 --> 0:15:06.400 handed changeup. Like it's it's ridiculous the number of premier 0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:10.520 lefty bats there are and the number of drastic splits 0:15:10.560 --> 0:15:13.360 that I see for pitchers as it pertains to right 0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:16.640 and left. It's like, oh, Lefty's ops nine hundred against him, 0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:18.920 but right he's are ops and six fifty against him. 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:21.800 Why is that? Because the slider's good and the sweeper's good, 0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:25.640 and everybody prioritized working on the slider and sweeper instead 0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:28.960 of something to get lefties out, and like it could 0:15:29.000 --> 0:15:31.880 be a sinker, but very few right handed pitchers, it 0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:34.160 seems like in Major League Baseball have a feel for 0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:38.000 a change up and it's like a splitter accomplishes it 0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:40.640 to a certain extent, but if you've got a little 0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:43.560 armside diver, dude, it's one of the best pitches in 0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:45.040 baseball right now. I think. 0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:47.200 Well, one the biggest thing I think it's a great 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:51.080 point is and it's the cyclical league that we have, 0:15:51.680 --> 0:15:55.400 is is that it became in vogue to go sweeper 0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:59.360 hoppy fastball and like right on right, nightmare right, Like 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:00.880 you're not gonna be do that. So the only way 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:04.000 to combat that is to have more lefties against those 0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:05.960 types of guys. But the other reason why why they 0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:07.880 did that and like why sweepers became in vogue is 0:16:08.600 --> 0:16:11.600 it's a lot easier from pitchers. I've talked to pitching 0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:14.000 coaches I've talked to like a lot easier to teach 0:16:14.000 --> 0:16:15.920 a sleeper than it is to teach a change up 0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:18.040 and like duh. But even like with everything that we 0:16:18.120 --> 0:16:21.600 have today, it's even more of a gap in terms 0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:24.480 of teachability than you think, like and then we already 0:16:24.480 --> 0:16:26.160 think that it's a huge gap. So like a lot 0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:27.520 of guys, if you already have a little bit of 0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:29.120 ability to spend it, like they can get you on 0:16:29.160 --> 0:16:31.600 a sweeper pretty quickly, change up not so much. And 0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:34.360 I think with how much we push towards that, yeah, 0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:37.040 this change up has become even more valuable. And I 0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:39.120 think that's why we're saying, like Logan web Man, like 0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:41.880 just on this heater of all heaters right now. 0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:44.240 Yeah, it's just crazy. All right, We're gonna get to 0:16:44.240 --> 0:16:46.120 the American League Central in a moment. But before that 0:16:52.080 --> 0:16:55.120 little woosh heading into the Cleveland Guardian conversation and the 0:16:55.160 --> 0:16:57.560 Cleveland Guardian breakout pick for you was a guy that 0:16:57.760 --> 0:17:01.360 seemed like a slam dunk at time, and now it's 0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:04.720 not a slam dunk. Joey Oke was your pick. Joey 0:17:04.840 --> 0:17:07.879 Oke last year in fifty nine innings, punched out seventy 0:17:07.920 --> 0:17:10.720 eight guys, and you're sitting here saying, if only he 0:17:10.840 --> 0:17:14.960 walks fewer than six hitters per nine innings. Unfortunately, joey 0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:18.240 Oki went back on his word in thirteen starts in 0:17:18.400 --> 0:17:21.560 low Way in his age twenty season, joey Oki in 0:17:21.680 --> 0:17:24.479 forty five at a third innings has a six eight era. 0:17:24.880 --> 0:17:27.520 Why you ask, because in forty five and a third 0:17:27.560 --> 0:17:33.959 innings he's walked forty two guys. Man, what's gone wrong? Mechanics. 0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:37.159 It's mechanics. It's such a long arm action. It's so 0:17:37.280 --> 0:17:39.560 hard for him to time up. And I just he 0:17:39.760 --> 0:17:41.320 tried to tweak it and whatever, and I think it 0:17:41.400 --> 0:17:43.199 might have made things worse. Like did you see now 0:17:43.240 --> 0:17:47.760 he looks uncomfortable and mechanical. I've picked this guy twice 0:17:47.800 --> 0:17:50.600 now to breakout, so I can. I can promise you 0:17:50.640 --> 0:17:52.920 we're not gonna be picking irons in or excuse me, ice, 0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:56.400 we're not gonna be picking ok next year. I still 0:17:56.440 --> 0:17:58.000 think he has a lot of time and a lot 0:17:58.040 --> 0:18:00.720 of talent, but it's probably going to be more in 0:18:00.800 --> 0:18:03.040 that relief role, right. I mean, they're gonna give him 0:18:03.040 --> 0:18:05.960 time to like try to figure it out, obviously, But 0:18:06.280 --> 0:18:09.600 I just when you watch him throw and you see 0:18:09.640 --> 0:18:12.280 that long arm action and just some of the erraticness 0:18:12.280 --> 0:18:15.159 still like trying to time that up with his body, 0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:17.520 he can get a little bit jumpy. It seems like 0:18:17.680 --> 0:18:20.520 the timing is inconsistent across different like different pitches, and 0:18:20.600 --> 0:18:23.720 you can it's very tangible. So that's where I get 0:18:23.840 --> 0:18:25.760 even more concerned about the command is when you can 0:18:25.840 --> 0:18:28.960 really see the timing inconsistencies with the arm and the 0:18:29.000 --> 0:18:33.600 lower body and it's the fastball slider combination could play 0:18:33.600 --> 0:18:35.800 in a bullpen, but even then, like the command's gonna 0:18:35.800 --> 0:18:38.160 need to get a lot better to even get there. 0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:40.080