Speaker 1: Hey guys, just a reminder to you. We're just a
Speaker 1: couple days away from our next Mariner's live event and
Speaker 1: it's our EQC Mariners Trivia Night. Yeah, over at the
Speaker 1: Emerald Queen Casino. We cannot wait to see you there.
Speaker 1: It is this upcoming Tuesday, six pm, July the twenty eighth,
Speaker 1: will be giving away prizes while doing Mariners Trivia with
Speaker 1: you guys. It's gonna be a blast. And then afterwards
Speaker 1: we're gonna watch the Mariners Dodgers game with you guys.
Speaker 1: It'll be over at the BEDMGM Sportsbook at the EQUC.
Speaker 1: It's an awesome place to hang out, so mark it
Speaker 1: on your calendars. Tuesday, July twenty eighth, six pm at
Speaker 1: the EQC. We'll see you guys there.
Speaker 2: Welcome to episode number four thirty three of the Marine
Speaker 2: Layer of podcast. It's a mailbag episode, so we'll open
Speaker 2: it up and answer your best listener questions. We'll also
Speaker 2: react to the Mariners firing assistant hitting coach Bobby Maggie
Speaker 2: on us.
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Speaker 2: Let's get it rolling and we welcome you to this
Speaker 2: episode of the Marine Layer Podcast, part of the Just
Speaker 2: Baseball Podcast network, recording here on Thursday evening, July twenty third.
Speaker 2: Lilyile action has been taken.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's all been fixed. Team's been fixed, Season's been fixed.
Speaker 1: Shirley firing a third hitting coach just solved everything.
Speaker 2: Bobby meggianis uh not high on the Mariners heading coach
Speaker 2: totem Pole. He is in fact third on the list
Speaker 2: of Mariners hitting coaches. But someone today decided that it
Speaker 2: was his day to lose his job.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't even know what to say to this. Supposedly,
Speaker 1: Bobby maggianis worked on more of the mechanical hitting side
Speaker 1: with the players, and that was his designated role. But
Speaker 1: spin it however you want. You can't tell me taking
Speaker 1: action by firing a third hitting coach is what gets
Speaker 1: the engine going of this team. I don't believe that
Speaker 1: for one second.
Speaker 2: Like if Bobby Maggianis had enough control over the Mariners
Speaker 2: offense and the Mariners offensive results that he rightfully deserved
Speaker 2: to get fired at this point to fix the Mariner's offense,
Speaker 2: then I would ask what Kevin Seitzer and Edgar Martinez
Speaker 2: are doing if they're like the two guys higher up
Speaker 2: than he is and the hitting coach ranks. But the
Speaker 2: thing is, I don't think that's that's it at all.
Speaker 2: I think the Mariners just they wanted to show they're
Speaker 2: willing to take action to the rest of the people
Speaker 2: on this coaching staff, on this roster and in the
Speaker 2: front office as well. That's what I think this was.
Speaker 1: It's a scapegoat.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it's a scapegoat. From everything we can understand,
Speaker 2: Bobby Maggianis was liked by everybody for the Mariners right.
Speaker 2: Never once did it seem like the third hitting coach
Speaker 2: was ever the issue, or that the Mariners have terrible
Speaker 2: hitting mechanics, which, by the way, if he was in
Speaker 2: charge of mechanics. The mechanics worked out pretty fine at
Speaker 2: the end of last year, same coaching staff. Wow, they
Speaker 2: really are just running the twenty twenty four playbook right now.
Speaker 2: This is exactly how it went. You first start by
Speaker 2: firing a hitting coach. Then after that in twenty twenty four,
Speaker 2: that's when they DFAD a key player on the roster,
Speaker 2: a tenured player, and we'll talk about who that could be.
Speaker 2: And then after that they decided to fire the manager
Speaker 2: and the rest of the hitting coaches. Like that's how
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four or went. We're a little bit slower
Speaker 2: in the clock right now, but it's at least the
Speaker 2: start of that same playbook.
Speaker 1: The key player of the DFA, for those who don't remember,
Speaker 1: was Ty France, who, by the way, is just on
Speaker 1: a thurge in San Diego right now.
Speaker 2: And might be mentioned in this mailbag as a potential
Speaker 2: trade target for the Mariners. Wouldn't that be funny? In
Speaker 2: like the twenty twenty four esque season, the Mariners retrade
Speaker 2: for Ty France.
Speaker 1: It'd be unreal. I don't know how they'd make that work,
Speaker 1: just with the fact that they have a first baseman,
Speaker 1: but Hey, I'm open to ideas.
Speaker 2: I have a question for you, Lyle, who do you
Speaker 2: think made this decision? Was this a coaching staff decision?
Speaker 2: Aka Dan Wilson fired him? Do you think this was
Speaker 2: a front office decision or was this an ownership decision?
Speaker 1: Front office? You think so? Dude, I'm sorry. Do we
Speaker 1: think Dan Wilson has the stones to fire people on
Speaker 1: his coaching staff.
Speaker 2: As far as we know? No?
Speaker 1: No, no, like, yes, that's the right way to put it,
Speaker 1: as far as the as I know, And I'm concerned. No,
Speaker 1: I think that came from somewhere above the coaching staff.
Speaker 1: And you talked about this pre recording. Could it have
Speaker 1: been ownership going to the front office and say change something?
Speaker 1: So then the front office goes down to the coaching
Speaker 1: staff and says change something, and by spiral of effects,
Speaker 1: that's what ended up happening. Possible, feels like to me
Speaker 1: though it was more of a front office thing.
Speaker 2: I mean, in that chain of command, Lyle, you just
Speaker 2: don't know that the ownership was the one that told
Speaker 2: the front office to make a move.
Speaker 1: No, but what do John Stanton and Chris Larson know
Speaker 1: about the third hitting coach?
Speaker 2: Well, they don't again, they just want to change. They
Speaker 2: want an example like that. That's the only thing this
Speaker 2: has to be as an example.
Speaker 1: Sure, this is also some of the issue you run
Speaker 1: into with owners meddling, because again, what do billionaires know
Speaker 1: about the third hitting coach of a baseball team.
Speaker 2: But sure, but there's no way for us to prove
Speaker 2: that they had any say in this.
Speaker 1: No, there's no way to prove whose say it was
Speaker 1: and whose decision it was. It's not public. But I
Speaker 1: am going to assume it is somebody above the coaching
Speaker 1: staff that made this call. Somebody is an acting change.
Speaker 2: What this kind of feels like to me is that
Speaker 2: whoever ended up making this decision, however high up they are,
Speaker 2: they're trying to send a message to the front office,
Speaker 2: the coaching staff, and the players that accountability has arrived
Speaker 2: at the point of the season where it's starting to
Speaker 2: cost people their jobs for underperforming, and that if the
Speaker 2: performance continues at this level, I would be really surprised
Speaker 2: if we didn't see more accountability come in any of
Speaker 2: the forms I just mentioned earlier, with how it played
Speaker 2: out in twenty twenty four, where you look at the
Speaker 2: players and you're like, you guys are really underperforming. We
Speaker 2: need to make a change on the roster. Oh coaching staff,
Speaker 2: we think you guys are really underperforming at this point.
Speaker 2: So sorry, we're gonna need to make a change. Like
Speaker 2: that's kind of how this works, or even if it
Speaker 2: goes higher front office. I don't like this job you
Speaker 2: guys did with this roster this year. It's clearly wasn't
Speaker 2: good enough. And I've had enough.
Speaker 1: I mean, we can say this. The echo chamber has
Speaker 1: been loud as can be, especially this season about calling
Speaker 1: for Dan Wilson's job. We just talked about it on
Speaker 1: the last episode with Logan responding to a lot of that.
Speaker 1: But that echo chamber has been loud, and for those
Speaker 1: people in that echo chamber, I will say objectively, Dan
Speaker 1: Wilson's seat just got warmer today than it was yesterday.
Speaker 1: Because somebody on your staff gets fired. That's step one.
Speaker 1: It continues to go badly, more action gets taken.
Speaker 2: What are the what's the echo chamber going to be
Speaker 2: saying if the Mariners pull off one in six road trip?
Speaker 1: I mean, the same thing they've been saying all year,
Speaker 1: same thing they've been saying since Game seven of the Alcs.
Speaker 2: Well, except this time you're gonna have Oh well, they're
Speaker 2: willing to make moves. I think there are some people
Speaker 2: paranoid were never gonna make a move this year where
Speaker 2: they were gonna be like, we stilln't believe in all
Speaker 2: of these guys. We think we're good enough, we're gonna
Speaker 2: roll with that. But now they've show them, no, we're willing.
Speaker 2: We're willing to make some moves. I hope this isn't
Speaker 2: just performative where it's this is the only guy they're
Speaker 2: actually willing to let go of. And let's say they
Speaker 2: continue to massively underperform through the end of the season
Speaker 2: and they don't change anything else. It's like, well, so
Speaker 2: you just fired a guy, just Couz, and nothing changed, Yeah,
Speaker 2: which would really suck for Bobby maggianas that would really suck.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, it'd be such a slap in the face again,
Speaker 1: it'd be such a scapegoat move, which it already kind
Speaker 1: of feels like it was. But we'll see how things
Speaker 1: go the rest of the year. I can't exactly imagine
Speaker 1: that if the Mariners go and turn this whole thing
Speaker 1: around and win the World Series, that there's gonna be
Speaker 1: many stories featured on well. The firing of third hitting
Speaker 1: coach Bobby maggieans sparked the twenty twenty six Mariners onto
Speaker 1: the World Series. Yeah, I can't really imagine that.
Speaker 2: Let's recount twenty twenty four a little bit, just so
Speaker 2: we can draw some of these parallels. Twenty twenty four was,
Speaker 2: maybe with slightly lower expectations, a similar vibe of the
Speaker 2: twenty twenty six team, where the lineup especially is underperforming
Speaker 2: massively well. The pitching staff is pitching well. This staff's
Speaker 2: not as good as that one, but it's still generally
Speaker 2: pitching pretty well, definitely well enough for them to win
Speaker 2: a division and make it to the playoffs. The common
Speaker 2: theme with those two teams is that the lineups of
Speaker 2: those teams underperformed enormously. I honestly feel like that twenty
Speaker 2: twenty four team lineup was better, was more productive than
Speaker 2: this one currently, as I haven't checked, the Mariners team
Speaker 2: ranks offensively obviously and long enough to the fact that
Speaker 2: they're like second to last in overall offense right now
Speaker 2: and runs.
Speaker 1: I mean, are we shocked?
Speaker 2: No, oh oh no, I'm not shocked. It's just kind
Speaker 2: of like a visual just slap in the face. To
Speaker 2: me as I see it on my screen.
Speaker 1: I mean, so they go out and have a bad
Speaker 1: road trip, which is very plausible, by the way, considering
Speaker 1: you're playing a Rangers team that is on the road.
Speaker 1: You have not always played well in that ballpark. There's
Speaker 1: points where they have, but points where they certainly haven't.
Speaker 1: And then you're gonna go to La for three and
Speaker 1: as we've said, I mean, you can kind of script
Speaker 1: how that one's gonna go. Already, it's a bad road trip.
Speaker 1: We may see more action in a week. Yeah, we
Speaker 1: very well might.
Speaker 2: So if we're gonna continue to draw comparisons to that team. Okay,
Speaker 2: So the twenty twenty four Mariners team finished twenty first
Speaker 2: in runs. This one's currently twenty ninth in runs, and
Speaker 2: that offense had got three hitting coaches fired and the manager.
Speaker 2: So just like put that into perspective right now. So
Speaker 2: the Mariners made the first move of that twenty twenty
Speaker 2: four season when they fired Brent Brown. Did anything change
Speaker 2: after they fired Brent Brown? Absolutely not, No, not that
Speaker 2: much change. What was the next action the Mariners took
Speaker 2: in that twenty twenty four season.
Speaker 1: It was, oh well, sorry, let me rephrase a little
Speaker 1: bit after they fired Brian Brown. They had a ten
Speaker 1: game lead and then blew a ten game lead in records.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, oh yeah, you don't remember they had a
Speaker 1: ten game lead in the middle of June and then
Speaker 1: blew it in record time to the Astros.
Speaker 2: Yeah, now I do. I remember that, yeah, very vividly.
Speaker 1: The second course of action was they dfa ty France,
Speaker 1: which again felt like another scapegoat move because ty France
Speaker 1: was not hitting well. But it's not like he was
Speaker 1: the problem with the whole offense.
Speaker 2: It was like the median outcome on that Mariners roster,
Speaker 2: in that lineup. I remember that podcast episode after that.
Speaker 2: You could make the case there were like four guys
Speaker 2: more to blame for the Mariners offensive struggles than Typrance was.
Speaker 2: But ty France wasn't making any money, so they could dfam.
Speaker 1: I mean, they had just come off an off season
Speaker 1: of paying Mitch Garver twelve million bucks a year, who
Speaker 1: didn't hit at all. That was the year they traded
Speaker 1: for Polo and he didn't hit at all. It was
Speaker 1: twenty twenty where he did hit twenty four. Polo in
Speaker 1: a bad year, So it was those two. I mean,
Speaker 1: Julio had his worst first half to date, and there
Speaker 1: was other guys around that offense that weren't doing much either.
Speaker 1: JP had a record setting twenty twenty three in terms
Speaker 1: of his own career, and then came came absolutely tumbling
Speaker 1: back to earth in twenty four where he was injured
Speaker 1: and also not hitting.
Speaker 2: Oh when they had Josh Rojas at third base, so
Speaker 2: he wasn't gonna hit either.
Speaker 1: Who started red hot that year for the first six
Speaker 1: weeks or so and then got ice cold.
Speaker 2: He's bad. He's bad at the end of the season.
Speaker 2: So that's kind of where the Mariners were at when
Speaker 2: they let go of ty France. I'll tell you what, man,
Speaker 2: the Mariners have a bad road trip and they come
Speaker 2: home and they don't play that well against the A's
Speaker 2: or the Twins, and they're not scoring a bunch of runs. Like,
Speaker 2: are the Mariners gonna decide that they're gonna take accountability
Speaker 2: on a player next, because like, if they take accountability
Speaker 2: on a player, it could give them a helpful excuse
Speaker 2: to free up more room on this roster, which we've
Speaker 2: talked about. There's not a lot of easy fits on
Speaker 2: the trade market into your lineup because you just have
Speaker 2: a lot of guys on this roster that are taking
Speaker 2: up spots and you need to clear a spot to
Speaker 2: get them on there. The player that comes to mind
Speaker 2: for me is JP Crawford. Jp Crawford has not hit
Speaker 2: well recently. He makes the most sense to get squeezed
Speaker 2: out of a spot when you go around the diamond.
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously Col's not getting pushed out behind the plate,
Speaker 2: Naylor's not at first, Cole's not at second. I mean,
Speaker 2: you could send Colt down at shortstop. But again, like
Speaker 2: JP's not playing well either, and his defense isn't good,
Speaker 2: so you're you shouldn't just give him back shortstop. Randy's
Speaker 2: in left, Julio's in center, and then right field is
Speaker 2: just a mish match to guys. There's there's a lot
Speaker 2: of guys in right field, so that would take more
Speaker 2: than one. JP's kind of it, and there's like a
Speaker 2: clear guy to come back and take a spot, Brendan
Speaker 2: on of it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And there's no saying for sure that happens, but
Speaker 1: it's possible, especially since he's going to be a free
Speaker 1: agent at the end of the year and he's not
Speaker 1: hitting great. He's been a little better in July, but
Speaker 1: it's not like he's had a great overall year. He's
Speaker 1: still below league average by ops. Plus he's not playing
Speaker 1: good defense. You know, he's slowing down, he's getting older,
Speaker 1: And you're right that between Donovan, between Colt, between Cole
Speaker 1: Young between Randy there is going to be a logjam
Speaker 1: here at some point. Now Brendan Donovan actually has to
Speaker 1: get back on the field first. But yeah, I mean,
Speaker 1: are they for sure going to use the same playbook
Speaker 1: as twenty twenty four? No, maybe they just don't dfa
Speaker 1: any player this year. But who's the easiest com to
Speaker 1: Tye Franz from two years ago. Yeah, it's probably JP.
Speaker 2: So we'll see what the Mariners decide to do. It
Speaker 2: probably depends on how they play here in the next
Speaker 2: few weeks before the deadline, maybe just after the deadline.
Speaker 2: Even that twenty four Mariners team, if we want to
Speaker 2: go back to that playbook, they were aggressive at the deadline.
Speaker 2: They traded for Randy Rosorin and didn't fix anything, and
Speaker 2: Randy essentially heads Scott's are verus as a manager for
Speaker 2: three weeks and then he got fired. So like I
Speaker 2: can still that can still happen, because that's how that
Speaker 2: played out, But everyone's seat on this roster did just
Speaker 2: get hotter. Coaches, players, front office, every single person after
Speaker 2: the move that was made today, and we'll see how
Speaker 2: they respond to it. The goal of a move like
Speaker 2: this is to wake everyone up and say, hey, like,
Speaker 2: if you don't play better, if something else is gonna happen.
Speaker 2: So I hope they play better.
Speaker 1: Yeah, agreed, agreed. Otherwise, how much can you say about
Speaker 1: firing a third hitting coach? Just you know, doesn't feel
Speaker 1: like that's a serious a move, just not that serious
Speaker 1: a move. I feel serious.
Speaker 2: It's serious in the bigger picture, but the move specifically now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, again, I feel bad for Bobby Maggie Honis because
Speaker 1: this isn't really his fault. Feel at least sure doesn't
Speaker 1: feel like it, but he escapegoaded last thing on this.
Speaker 1: Just remember a couple of years ago. I remember we
Speaker 1: talked to Ryan.
Speaker 2: Davish and he was in minnesot for a twin series
Speaker 2: during that year. By the way, in twenty twenty four,
Speaker 2: people were really struggling with how bad the offense was,
Speaker 2: and we talked about hitting coaches. How much does a
Speaker 2: big league hitting coach do? And Ryan said it pretty
Speaker 2: bluntly is like these guys all have personal heading coaches
Speaker 2: that they work with a ton, arguably more than the
Speaker 2: team coaches themselves that the Mariners employ, like Sitzer and Edgar,
Speaker 2: So you never really know who is responsible for the
Speaker 2: swing of said player at this.
Speaker 1: Point, right. I think often hitting coaches are trying to
Speaker 1: give a lot of information rather than really retool swings.
Speaker 2: Right, and they leave the mechanics for the offseason.
Speaker 1: H Yeah, all right, Well.
Speaker 2: We got a lot of really good mail bag questions,
Speaker 2: so that's on the current Mariners team. We have a
Speaker 2: lot of certain trade proposals we need to get to
Speaker 2: in this mail bag, some great ideas before. Before we
Speaker 2: get to those, let's pause here.
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Speaker 2: if you want to get in on these mail bags
Speaker 2: and you want your questions answered, the place to go
Speaker 2: is our Patreon that's patreon dot com slash Marine Layer Pod.
Speaker 2: You get access to add free episodes, mailbag priority, and
Speaker 2: a monthly video call with Lyle and I. So that's
Speaker 2: something that sounds interesting to you. Go to patreon dot
Speaker 2: com slash Marine Layer Pod. Let's start off with Alex
Speaker 2: on Patreon Lyle. Alex's question is what would you give
Speaker 2: up for Mason Miller.
Speaker 1: I would get pretty aggressive for Mason Miller because this
Speaker 1: isn't just any old reliever. This is a guy that
Speaker 1: makes games eight innings long. This is the best reliever
Speaker 1: in Major League based with absolute wipeout stuff, who just
Speaker 1: sits so far and away above everybody else in his class.
Speaker 1: And by the way, he's got three and a half
Speaker 1: years of club control. You would get four chances of
Speaker 1: a playoff run in a World Series run with Mason
Speaker 1: Miller closing games for you, And that's an addition to
Speaker 1: Munno's and Brash and Spire and Ferrer and Bizaro. What
Speaker 1: would I give up for Mason Miller. I would trade
Speaker 1: one of the starting pitchers man, I would If it
Speaker 1: takes George Kirby, I'd trade George Kirby. At some point,
Speaker 1: you have to open up space space in this rotation.
Speaker 1: You can't have all these guys continuing to piggyback in
Speaker 1: six minute, somebody's gonna go. And the rumors that have
Speaker 1: been floated out there over the last day about the
Speaker 1: Mariners dangling out starting pitchers seems to only indicate more
Speaker 1: so that that's the case. So if it takes Kirby, yeah,
Speaker 1: trade Kirby. If it takes Castillo and high end prospects
Speaker 1: that aren't named Kayden Sloan, yeah, I'd listen to that too.
Speaker 2: Here's the thing about this from the Padres perspective, I
Speaker 2: don't know how they say no to that, because George
Speaker 2: Kirby is a more valuable asset in my opinion, than
Speaker 2: Leo Diverries's, which is what they had to give up
Speaker 2: to get Mason Miller last year. Top prospects are great,
Speaker 2: but Leo Devrez hasn't played an MLB game yet, so
Speaker 2: everything from him is prospect status. It's a lore, it's tools,
Speaker 2: it's projectability. Well, even as even though George Kirby has flaws,
Speaker 2: he's an established All star Big League starting pitcher who's
Speaker 2: gonna sit right in the middle of a rotation with
Speaker 2: potential upside to be higher than that if he unlocks it,
Speaker 2: that's pretty hard thing to turn away. The options for
Speaker 2: the Maritors to send to the Padres are Kirby, Hancock
Speaker 2: or Castillo. Emerson. Hancock got a lot of attention on
Speaker 2: the trade market today online that the Maritors were also
Speaker 2: floating him out there as a potential option. As much
Speaker 2: as it would break our heart, that would be a
Speaker 2: really tough one to swallow. It does make sense why
Speaker 2: the Mariners would float Emerson out there trying to capitalize
Speaker 2: on his value right now, and given how much control
Speaker 2: he has, you could you could really cash in on
Speaker 2: a return for Emerson Hancock. Now the question of what
Speaker 2: did I do this trade? I'm stuck on this. I'm
Speaker 2: I'm not fully convinced in the regular season to get
Speaker 2: to the playoffs, which is the situation. The Mariners are
Speaker 2: in right now that Mason Miller helps you get there
Speaker 2: more than a George Kerb would. This is just in
Speaker 2: the regular season. In the postseason totally makes sense. Like
Speaker 2: I would totally agree the Mariners were in first place
Speaker 2: right now and they were on a mission to make
Speaker 2: their postseason roster better, I'd be like, yep, send the
Speaker 2: starter away. I'm I'm all in on this. But the
Speaker 2: Mariners are in a situation right now where they're fighting
Speaker 2: for a playoff spot, and it's like it's not guaranteed
Speaker 2: at all. I don't know if trading for a closer
Speaker 2: for the final two months of this season, I know
Speaker 2: you have more control beyond that, but let's focus on
Speaker 2: this season for now helps you get there as much.
Speaker 1: But I think there is a factor that plays into this,
Speaker 1: and a large one that has to do with years
Speaker 1: onward from this as well, because this is how the
Speaker 1: Mariners usually operate a trade deadline. Twenty twenty five was
Speaker 1: pretty unique where they were trading for renolds. Usually they're
Speaker 1: looking for players with club control. Mason Miller absolutely has
Speaker 1: club control. Should the Mariners be focused on winning in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, Yes, And I think Mason Miller still
Speaker 1: helps you do that, and the fact that moving forward
Speaker 1: you get three more years with them. It's the idea
Speaker 1: of a brash Munno's Miller back three in your bullpen
Speaker 1: and you still abspire, Bizarto and Ferrera ahead of it.
Speaker 1: I mean, we said the Mariners were a bullpen arm
Speaker 1: short to start this season. I still believe that you
Speaker 1: go get Mason Miller. That's almost like getting two bullpen arms.
Speaker 1: That's how good he is. He is the best in
Speaker 1: the game, who is on pace for the Hall of Fame.
Speaker 2: If this continues, I've come to a conclusion. If the
Speaker 2: Padres would somehow take Luis Castill in prospects for Mason Miller,
Speaker 2: I would do that. If the Mariners were gonna trade
Speaker 2: Emerson and Hancock and Laz I would do that. If
Speaker 2: they're trading Kirby, I'm out.
Speaker 1: I do it for Kirby.
Speaker 2: I think Kirby gives you a better chance of making
Speaker 2: the postseason in the regular season, which is the situation
Speaker 2: the Mariners are in right now. Over the course of
Speaker 2: regular season games, then Mason Miller would You're trading for
Speaker 2: twenty innings of Mason Miller, Max. But again, what happens
Speaker 2: if he allows like three home runs and all of
Speaker 2: a sudden, those twenty innings aren't worth George Kirby.
Speaker 1: But there's more years that go beyond this, more than
Speaker 1: Kirby has.
Speaker 2: By the way, you know me, I don't give a
Speaker 2: shit about the years out to this, not at all.
Speaker 1: I still care for somebody like Mason Miller. I care. Hmm.
Speaker 2: I think relievers are too fickle to look at three
Speaker 2: years of control.
Speaker 1: Okay, but isn't Mason Miller a little different than most relievers.
Speaker 2: Everyone is prone to down years as a reliever. Again,
Speaker 2: Mason Miller gives up five homers in a season and
Speaker 2: his season's done, it's toast. Then all the values gone.
Speaker 2: One injury.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you could say that with any pitcher.
Speaker 2: It's a risk. But with my mindset of like this
Speaker 2: season right, So that's why I'm not valuing the future
Speaker 2: years of Mason Miller quite as much. Where I see
Speaker 2: a Mariners team that currently sits below five hundred, has
Speaker 2: pressing needs else square and you're gonna trade your I
Speaker 2: feel like you were giving up more value than you
Speaker 2: were getting back for this season. Trying to win right now,
Speaker 2: as fun as the back end of that bullpen sounds.
Speaker 2: I just don't think it gives you a better chance
Speaker 2: this year.
Speaker 1: Does it change your mind at all that by Baseball Reference,
Speaker 1: Mason Miller has been more than half a win better
Speaker 1: than George Kirby this year.
Speaker 2: Like sure, Okay, so you're been thinking about I'm thinking
Speaker 2: about math on a baseball field. Six innings of a
Speaker 2: starter versus one inning of a reliever. That only comes
Speaker 2: in if you're winning the game.
Speaker 1: Okay, But then which starting pitcher is getting traded if
Speaker 1: you're not doing it for Kirby Because at some point
Speaker 1: you have to trade a pitcher. You don't have to
Speaker 1: trade one. You could put one in the bullpen, like
Speaker 1: we've been talking about for months. Well you could do that,
Speaker 1: which would also it's not Mason Miller in the bullpen,
Speaker 1: but it would still be a pretty deep he's an
Speaker 1: arm in that bullpen. Again, It's just we've had this
Speaker 1: conversation about Kirby. Things haven't changed that much with him
Speaker 1: in five years. Same guy. He doesn't have the outpitch
Speaker 1: in the zone a lot. He has his great starts
Speaker 1: and then he has the ones where you know, he
Speaker 1: gets hit around pretty hard.
Speaker 2: And I totally like, that's totally right. I'm doing that fangrafts.
Speaker 2: Check here by the way of war totals.
Speaker 1: While you're doing that, I will say this, it's about
Speaker 1: the same.
Speaker 2: It's the same on fangraphs. All right, Mason's a tenth ahead,
Speaker 2: but it's the same.
Speaker 1: I will say this about the Padres. They need starting pitching.
Speaker 1: I mean badly, not just this year, but beyond. Right now,
Speaker 1: their rotation goes as follows. It is Herman Marquez, Griffin Canning.
Speaker 1: Both those guys have era's over five, Randy Vasquez Era
Speaker 1: at four to seven, Walker Buehler, who has not had
Speaker 1: a good year. The only guy in their rotation that's
Speaker 1: been good is Michael King, and he's a free agent
Speaker 1: at the end of the year. They need starter, they do.
Speaker 2: I would take more Mason Miller plus back for George Kirby.
Speaker 2: They have more to offer.
Speaker 1: I take two relievers, Well, sure, morehone's a rental. You
Speaker 1: want Miller and Morihone. That'd be great for Kirby.
Speaker 2: But that's what I would do.
Speaker 1: That's not that's not happening.
Speaker 2: Well, I just have a problem trading a starting pitcher
Speaker 2: for a reliever. I don't care how good the reliever is, Like,
Speaker 2: look at look at how the Mariners manage their bullpen.
Speaker 2: Mason Miller is only pitching in the game with the
Speaker 2: lead in the ninth inning. Well, that's that's what they're
Speaker 2: gonna do.
Speaker 1: Well, that's a problem because he needs a problem.
Speaker 2: Because the Mirrors don't have the lead in the ninth
Speaker 2: inning enough because they can't score runs well.
Speaker 1: And it's also a problem that Dan Wilson won't throw
Speaker 1: your best relievers in the highest leverage situations. Now, maybe
Speaker 1: that's a Munyo's thing. Where Munyo's won't do that, Mason
Speaker 1: would could be, We wouldn't know until he's on the team.
Speaker 1: Mason Miller does throw in different situations. He did that
Speaker 1: against the Mariners this year. He threw in a high
Speaker 1: leverage situation into the padres. Well, yeah, but what's the difference.
Speaker 2: Well, that's a different manager making decisions on when his
Speaker 2: pitchers are throwing.
Speaker 1: Well, part of me hopes that it's more of a
Speaker 1: Moodio's thing for why he won't throw in other situations
Speaker 1: for this case, that Mason would.
Speaker 2: I'm not even saying I'm not open to trading George Kirby.
Speaker 2: I am like I would trade George Kirby for bat.
Speaker 2: I would trade George Kirby for Trek Scubell because those
Speaker 2: two things make a lot more sense to me than
Speaker 2: trading for a reliever. While I would be down to
Speaker 2: trade for Mason Miller, I don't think putting Mason Miller
Speaker 2: in the bullpen and essentially handing Luis Castillo George Kirby
Speaker 2: spot in the rotation gives you the net value you're
Speaker 2: looking for to win games down the stretch this season,
Speaker 2: because that's what you'd be doing.
Speaker 1: Sure, I would also at least encourage you a little
Speaker 1: bit to think about what other seasons do for the
Speaker 1: sake of Mason Miller in the sake of this rotation,
Speaker 1: because by next year you'll have Kate Anderson.
Speaker 2: At the end of the day. If Mason Miller, out
Speaker 2: of all the trades that happen, is the trade that
Speaker 2: gets the Mariners the best chance of winning the World Series,
Speaker 2: then fine, fine. If there are other options out there,
Speaker 2: like trading a starter for a bat, I would do that.
Speaker 2: I would prioritize that above Mason Miller. Sure that would
Speaker 2: give you better value.
Speaker 1: I mean sure, but what bat? The controllable bats we
Speaker 1: talked about the controllable bats we've talked about, aren't all
Speaker 1: that intriguing. You got Casey Schmid out here who's walking
Speaker 1: two percent of the time and is a fine player,
Speaker 1: but that's not putting you over the top to win
Speaker 1: a World Series. We've talked about needle movers on this
Speaker 1: trade market. We've constantly said there's one in Scooball now
Speaker 1: that Mason Miller has been made available publicly. He is
Speaker 1: a needle mover. Not like school because he doesn't throw
Speaker 1: seven innings at night, he throws one. But he's a
Speaker 1: needle mover, a legit like he is the best at
Speaker 1: his position he has.
Speaker 2: I would trade prospects for him without a doubt. The
Speaker 2: Mariners have plenty of those. They want prospects. I'll give
Speaker 2: him prospects. Yeah, all right, but if you were to
Speaker 2: match it up, then you probably have to trade cater slone.
Speaker 2: But they won't last Michael Royal, yeah, and et cetera.
Speaker 2: I think i'd think about that.
Speaker 1: Sure, the Mariners won't trade cater Sloan for Mason Miller,
Speaker 1: by the way, No.
Speaker 2: I don't think so. And we don't have to. We
Speaker 2: don't have to talk about relievers all night. But yeah,
Speaker 2: I'm glad we see this differently. There is a situation
Speaker 2: where I would trade for Mason Miller. Seems like there
Speaker 2: are more situations where you would trade for Mason Miller.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Games become eight innings. It's that simple.
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, if they lead, if they lead, Yeah, all right, Now,
Speaker 2: next question comes from Michael on Patreon. Michael's question is
Speaker 2: what are some of the biggest flaws of this team
Speaker 2: that we might have missed because of a sixty home
Speaker 2: run season last year.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think church said it perfectly when he
Speaker 1: was on with us before the start of the year.
Speaker 1: Jason Churchill, he thought they needed one to two additional
Speaker 1: bats in the offseason that they didn't get. I think
Speaker 1: that's number one, And I think we just talked about
Speaker 1: it in the last question. We said constantly ahead of
Speaker 1: the start of the year that they were a bullpen
Speaker 1: arm short. I still believe they're a bullpen arm short,
Speaker 1: especially with the way Munyez has had his struggles this year.
Speaker 1: That's what's being exposed right now between the guys you
Speaker 1: acquired that are not living up to their potential, with
Speaker 1: Donovan's injury, with how bad ref Snider has been paired
Speaker 1: with just needing more depth in your lineup in general,
Speaker 1: and more depth than your bullpen in general. It's not
Speaker 1: there without Col's production. You take that away and you
Speaker 1: don't have the Refsnider product, and you don't have the
Speaker 1: Donovan production, all paired with the fact that you still
Speaker 1: probably needed an additional bat or two and a reliever,
Speaker 1: like a leverage reliever. It's totally on display this year.
Speaker 2: I think it's all lineup. It is all lineup. Listen
Speaker 2: to these numbers of the difference between cal at this
Speaker 2: point last year and worry is currently this year. At
Speaker 2: this point last year, on July twenty third, cal Rally
Speaker 2: had thirty nine home runs and eighty four RBIs. Like
Speaker 2: the basic of basic stats. Forget all the WRC plus
Speaker 2: and on base percentage. All that thirty nine home runs
Speaker 2: eighty four RBIs those count on the scoreboard. This year,
Speaker 2: cal Rally has ten home runs and thirty five RBIs.
Speaker 2: That is, twenty nine less home runs and forty nine
Speaker 2: less RBIs.
Speaker 1: Do you want to know where the.
Speaker 2: Mariners would rank if you added those numbers to the
Speaker 2: Mariners current team total this year? So the Mariners currently
Speaker 2: are twenty ninth in runs scored. If you added forty
Speaker 2: nine more runs to this team, they'd be twelve. Is
Speaker 2: that a pretty sizeable jump?
Speaker 1: I'd say yes. I think they'd be in first place
Speaker 1: in the AOS right now with that.
Speaker 2: Huh interesting, they're currently fifteenth in home runs. If you
Speaker 2: added twenty nine more home runs, the Mariners would be
Speaker 2: in first in all of Major League Baseball and homers. Yeah,
Speaker 2: you'd have a top half offense, the best home run
Speaker 2: hitting offense in Major League Baseball, and a pitching staff
Speaker 2: that at this point last year allowed fifty five for
Speaker 2: I think fifty seven more runs than they have currently
Speaker 2: allowed right now.
Speaker 1: Now, the question becomes a col with somewhere in the middle,
Speaker 1: ak what he's done in twenty twenty two, twenty three,
Speaker 1: and twenty four, which is a typical very good cal
Speaker 1: rally year hits two fifteen to two twenty, hits, thirty
Speaker 1: four homers, WRC plus is a round one twenty and
Speaker 1: it is about a four win catcher. Take it somewhere
Speaker 1: in the middle. So the Mariners go from twenty nine
Speaker 1: to twelfth. If it was a normal CAL season, they'd
Speaker 1: be roughly nineteenth in run scored and they'd be roughly
Speaker 1: what eighth or ninth in home runs top ten, So
Speaker 1: you're still missing a bat or two, like Churchill said
Speaker 1: at the start of the year, don't have enough bats.
Speaker 2: It's clear fair. But just to answer the question of like,
Speaker 2: what does sixty home runs cover up that?
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I mean it's it covered up a lot.
Speaker 1: To answer that question, you just highlighted it perfectly. It
Speaker 1: masks a lot of things.
Speaker 2: It makes your entire lineup looks looks significantly better than
Speaker 2: it actually is because around the diamond, like you could
Speaker 2: go spot to spot compare this year to last year
Speaker 2: with all these players. But just like, adding sixty home
Speaker 2: run production to this lineup all of a sudden makes
Speaker 2: this lineup look like a good lineup, a lineup that
Speaker 2: people would say, yeah, that's pretty good. They actually they
Speaker 2: do do enough that would be nice, but maybe they
Speaker 2: will score enough. Yeah, but otherwise yeah, no, no. And
Speaker 2: the difference between this year and last year is that
Speaker 2: last year's team was less talented than this year's team is,
Speaker 2: So you would have this kind of production with significantly
Speaker 2: worse players across the board.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I agree.
Speaker 2: Next question comes from Alex on Patreon Alex's question is,
Speaker 2: call me crazy, but since Canzona is playing so well,
Speaker 2: you could put Canzona in the outfield and trade Randy
Speaker 2: and Luis Castillo away at this deadline? What do you
Speaker 2: guys think?
Speaker 1: I mean, I get the Randy discourse, because again he
Speaker 1: drives people nuts with the way he often plays the game,
Speaker 1: But objectively, I just don't know how doing that gets
Speaker 1: you closer to the postseason. I don't think it does.
Speaker 2: I don't know who would trade for the duo of
Speaker 2: them either, Like they're expensive, Like two months of Randy
Speaker 2: doesn't net you back that much in all reality, like
Speaker 2: you get more back by just letting Randy walk in
Speaker 2: in the offseason. Sad, I don't really see it. Not
Speaker 2: only is a team not trading for Luis Castile, but
Speaker 2: then it also just doesn't really make much sense to
Speaker 2: let Randy Rose are gonna leave this team where he
Speaker 2: is still your best bat. I also don't think I
Speaker 2: want Dom Canzone playing in the outfield every day. No,
Speaker 2: he he hits really well. But if you put can
Speaker 2: Zone out there as much as you put Randy out there,
Speaker 2: like Canzone might not have some of the mental gaffes
Speaker 2: that Randy does, and certain points, like that foul ball
Speaker 2: in Tampa. But the range isn't good and just if
Speaker 2: you're expecting to see even average defense, you're gonna be
Speaker 2: very disappointed.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, somebody would trade for Randy, but it
Speaker 1: just doesn't help the Mariners enough. You're not gonna get
Speaker 1: the return back you want.
Speaker 2: It'd be a great Randy might be the top bat
Speaker 2: on the trade market if he was available. Everyone wants
Speaker 2: a right handed bat. Right, Oh, Randy's available and only
Speaker 2: for two months. Don't have to pay him that much,
Speaker 2: don't have to give up that much prospect. Oh yeah,
Speaker 2: we're gonna We're gonna go get.
Speaker 1: Him right And that's why the Mariners wouldn't do it,
Speaker 1: because the return is not gonna be good enough.
Speaker 2: Before we get to our next mail bag question, let's
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Speaker 2: retrial today shopify dot com slash marine Layer. Xander on
Speaker 2: Patreon asks what would a selling move be like for
Speaker 2: a starting pitcher? For example, would you trade George Kirby
Speaker 2: to the Cubs or the Yankees for a prospect package?
Speaker 1: I mean it would essentially be if you traded George
Speaker 1: Kirby to the Cubs for Matt Shaw. Because Matt Shaw
Speaker 1: is a third baseman He's a right handed hitting third baseman.
Speaker 1: He's young, and he has club control, but that's not
Speaker 1: helping you win this season, not at all. Matt Shaw
Speaker 1: has been significantly worse than he was last year. And again,
Speaker 1: it's it's tring. It's trading proven talent off your roster
Speaker 1: for a guy that's more of a project. Mm hmm.
Speaker 2: I think a selling move to me more looks like
Speaker 2: trading George Kirby to the Brewers and getting multiple guys
Speaker 2: back from their stacked system. The Milwaukee Brewers have one
Speaker 2: of the deepest farm systems in all of Major League Baseball,
Speaker 2: and if you're trading them George Kirby and the reason
Speaker 2: they would want George Kirby as them kind of like
Speaker 2: the Cubs, kind of like the Padres, and they have
Speaker 2: mizz They have a couple of really good young guys,
Speaker 2: but they don't have a lot of rotation depth, and
Speaker 2: that would probably come back to bite them again in
Speaker 2: the postseason like it did last year. The Mariners having
Speaker 2: George Kirby available to them would be very enticing. And
Speaker 2: if the Mariners are selling, then they want prospects back,
Speaker 2: and the Brewers have a ton of prospects I don't
Speaker 2: think the Brewers would trade Jesus Made, who's the number
Speaker 2: one prospect in all of baseball right now, and their
Speaker 2: top prospect. But what about their second prospect in Louis
Speaker 2: Payana for two and a half years of George Kirby.
Speaker 2: I mean, I'd be asking for Louis Payana, and I'd
Speaker 2: be asking for at least a couple of their other
Speaker 2: top one hundred prospects at minimum, maybe a young guy
Speaker 2: off their big league ross as well. If they're getting
Speaker 2: an everyday starter in George Kirby.
Speaker 1: Sure, I mean yeah, we can shut down any chance
Speaker 1: of Made getting traded. There's no shot the Brewers won't
Speaker 1: move him. He's got the chance to be a true superstar.
Speaker 1: So sure, Paynia at least By. Depends on what outlet
Speaker 1: you want to use. If you use MLB pipeline. Payne
Speaker 1: is a top twenty prospect in baseball, but that would
Speaker 1: absolutely be a selling move because while he might be
Speaker 1: good in a couple of years, he is nineteen years
Speaker 1: old and currently in high A. That is not a
Speaker 1: move that signals a team that is trying to go
Speaker 1: for it this year. It might help him down the road,
Speaker 1: but it's not a twenty twenty six move, and I'll
Speaker 1: tell you what. For as good of a prospect as
Speaker 1: Paenia might be, Oh, piss off a lot of fans.
Speaker 2: There's not many suitors for like a twenty twenty three
Speaker 2: like kind of by kind of sell trade. If you're
Speaker 2: trading George Kirby, I would prefer you either go to
Speaker 2: the extreme on the winning side or on the selling side.
Speaker 2: I would I would not try and dance the middle
Speaker 2: with one of your premiere trade pieces that you have
Speaker 2: on your roster. So no, Lyle, I'm not trading George
Speaker 2: Kirby for aid Toro two point zero. I'm not doing it.
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I don't think so either. No, I also
Speaker 1: don't think I don't know if Matt Shaw would love Seattle.
Speaker 1: I'll just leave it at that. Yeah.
Speaker 2: I don't think so either.
Speaker 1: Yeah. No.
Speaker 2: Cheryl on Patreon asks do you think entering the season
Speaker 2: with multiplatoons led to a roster unable to handle the
Speaker 2: regular bumps and bruises of a season.
Speaker 1: I mean, there's there's data and analytics behind the idea
Speaker 1: of platoons, right because you're trying to play to the
Speaker 1: strength of each player, But they do cause problems because
Speaker 1: you need everyday players. There's a reason there's not nine
Speaker 1: platoons on every team, and we say we're okay with
Speaker 1: one platoon, but you don't want to be running out
Speaker 1: to three four platoons on a roster. I don't think
Speaker 1: it's the overall reason. Again. I think the reason there's
Speaker 1: been so many bumps and bruises this year is because
Speaker 1: your two stars have not hit it well. Your three stars,
Speaker 1: your three highest paid players have not hit enough at all.
Speaker 1: Julio call Naylor. But relying on platoons overly and heavily
Speaker 1: can cause the issues, and we've seen it cause some
Speaker 1: issues this year. They put a lot of chips into
Speaker 1: Rob rev Snyder. They expected, with those six million bucks
Speaker 1: that they paid him to look not saving offense, but
Speaker 1: really lengthen that lineup against left handed pitching. Because the
Speaker 1: man by the numbers has been Aaron Judge like against
Speaker 1: left handed pitching before coming to Seattle. That's not even
Speaker 1: an exaggeration. Those are the type of numbers he would
Speaker 1: put up against lefties, and instead he's been borderline the
Speaker 1: worst hitter in Major League Baseball.
Speaker 2: The biggest downside of platoons is consistency. For the players
Speaker 2: because they don't get to play every day, and sometimes
Speaker 2: that will affect a team more than others. Where some
Speaker 2: platoons handle it great, some platoons don't handle it great.
Speaker 2: The Mariners platoon situation this year is kind of we've
Speaker 2: been so down on Rob Refsnyder, but Can Zone has
Speaker 2: also been so good, so hasn't that kind of like
Speaker 2: balanced out Whether they kind of combine. If you combine
Speaker 2: the two of them together, you spit out like slightly
Speaker 2: below Seth Smith offensive production.
Speaker 1: Mm hmm.
Speaker 2: I mean so, then in that case you just kind
Speaker 2: of have like a mid baseball player, which is not
Speaker 2: It's not Rob Refsneiner. It's not great, But I don't
Speaker 2: think like a mid net baseball player is the reason
Speaker 2: you don't survive like the bumps and bruises of the season.
Speaker 2: I would argue that for specifically bumps and bruises, that
Speaker 2: having guys playing too much would cause that and they
Speaker 2: would tie her down. And some guys just aren't built
Speaker 2: to play every day. There's the Freddie Freeman's and the
Speaker 2: Matt Olsens, and in this case for the Mariners, Cole Young,
Speaker 2: who can play every single day without much of a
Speaker 2: downturn in their production, but not every guy can do that.
Speaker 2: Some guys really tire out, especially catchers for example. So
Speaker 2: it's kind of how I read that question.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean again, I think it comes down to
Speaker 1: the fact your stars aren't hitting is why you've s
Speaker 1: seen so many bumps and bruises, because when the middle
Speaker 1: of your order isn't putting up middle of the order
Speaker 1: production on a team that was expected to be a
Speaker 1: World Series contender, it exposes everything else. There is no
Speaker 1: hiding what Rob Refsneider has done offensively this year, because
Speaker 1: it's been awful. There's no other way to put it.
Speaker 1: But it probably wouldn't be as big of a story
Speaker 1: if cal Julio and Naylor were all playing to the
Speaker 1: back of their baseball card and the Mariners had a
Speaker 1: six game lead in the aos right now.
Speaker 2: Next question comes from Cameron on Patreon. Cameron's question is,
Speaker 2: hopefully this isn't a ridiculous question, but should we bring
Speaker 2: back Ty France, right handed bat that is hitting well.
Speaker 1: Certainly a nice idea, and yes, has typ Frans had
Speaker 1: a great year he has? Would fans be absolutely over
Speaker 1: the moon to get him back? I'm sure. I just
Speaker 1: don't really know where he play because you have a
Speaker 1: first baseman locked up on a five year deal in
Speaker 1: Josh Naylor, and then you've had such a rotating cast
Speaker 1: of players. I mean, if you trade Luke Rayley back
Speaker 1: to the Padres for France and part of the package,
Speaker 1: maybe it works itself out a little bit where Canzone
Speaker 1: plays a little a little more outfield and on day's
Speaker 1: where he DH's, ty would just come off the bench
Speaker 1: or Naylor gets a day off. But the way the
Speaker 1: current roster structured, it would just be hard to maneuver,
Speaker 1: especially when cal Ney DHJS as a catcher.
Speaker 2: Man. It'd be a tough fit. Which goes back to
Speaker 2: our conversation at the beginning of this podcast of like,
Speaker 2: do the Maritters move on from someone out of convenience
Speaker 2: of just creating space available space.
Speaker 1: On this roster.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd like ty France back, but I just don't
Speaker 2: know where he plays. Yeah, I don't know for the
Speaker 2: trade package you'd have to give up for ty France.
Speaker 2: How much control does he have?
Speaker 1: Oh no, he's a free agent at the end of
Speaker 1: the year.
Speaker 2: Oh yes, all right, never mind, So then that's not
Speaker 2: as much of an issue. I think if they had space,
Speaker 2: I'd say.
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah. I mean, for those who haven't checked his
Speaker 1: numbers this year, he is just mashed. I mean he's
Speaker 1: got an eight seventy one ops for the year. He's
Speaker 1: ops plus ing one thirty eight and against lefties he
Speaker 1: is opsing nine to twenty six.
Speaker 2: Good for him, he's gonna get a good payday and
Speaker 2: free agency. I'm happy for him.
Speaker 1: I'm too.
Speaker 2: I mean, just think about how it looked a couple
Speaker 2: of years ago and you got DF eight. He's been bounced.
Speaker 2: He bounced around to what three or four different teams
Speaker 2: since then.
Speaker 1: He's been with since dfa' by the Mariners, Reds, Twin Wins,
Speaker 1: Blue Jays, now the Padres, and he's really figured it
Speaker 1: out again, which is pretty cool. I mean, who doesn't
Speaker 1: like ty France. He's a man exactly.
Speaker 2: Next question comes from Alex on Patreon. Alex's question is
Speaker 2: uh asking me TJ. You mentioned the mccullors trade was
Speaker 2: a blueprint for trading castillo, but the situation is totally different.
Speaker 2: Can you explain your thinking a little bit? Yes, I can.
Speaker 2: My point with the mccullor's trade was to just dispel
Speaker 2: the notion that Louis Castillo is not untradable. Mccullors and
Speaker 2: theories should have been untradable. He had a big contract,
Speaker 2: he had been significantly worse than Louis Castillo, and he
Speaker 2: had been hurt for a long time before this. You
Speaker 2: would think someone like that would be untradeable, but he
Speaker 2: got traded, so you might not get the package back
Speaker 2: you want for Louis Castillo, but he is tradable for
Speaker 2: the right price.
Speaker 1: If you look at guys in the range of the
Speaker 1: salary Louis Castillo's making for this year. Because Alex also
Speaker 1: mentioned that in his question, like the second part was
Speaker 1: compared to the other veterans starters in his salary range,
Speaker 1: is Castillo actually one of the more attractive trade targets
Speaker 1: if Seattle retained some of the salary. You know who
Speaker 1: the very next guy is in terms of twenty twenty
Speaker 1: six aav below Louis Castillo.
Speaker 2: Let me guess, is it Kevin Gosman.
Speaker 1: It is Kevin Gosman, who is who is on the
Speaker 1: trade market, publicly available and also has less control than
Speaker 1: Luis Castillo, so teams would have to give up less
Speaker 1: to get him. Kevin Gosman similar to Castillo has not
Speaker 1: had his best year. He's got a four point fifty
Speaker 1: one ERA. Now, if you look at something like his
Speaker 1: FIP under the hood, it's at three six eight. So
Speaker 1: he's been a little bit better in terms of the expecteds,
Speaker 1: and maybe a team believes that he's gonna regrets back
Speaker 1: up to the mean as the season goes along. And
Speaker 1: if you look month by month for Gosman, I mean,
Speaker 1: so this is where the totem pole swings back because
Speaker 1: he started the year really well. June and July have
Speaker 1: not been good. You're a team, would you rather trade
Speaker 1: for Gosman or Castillo? Gosman makes a million and a
Speaker 1: half less and also has less control.
Speaker 2: I would trade for Gosman because it gives you more flexibility.
Speaker 2: And Luis Castillo has that vesting option where if you're
Speaker 2: gonna put Louis Castillo in the rotation the year after
Speaker 2: you trade for him, there's a risk he hits one
Speaker 2: hundred and eighty innings and then you're on the hook
Speaker 2: for another twenty million dollar season after that, a year older.
Speaker 1: Right, So I think that teams would look at exactly
Speaker 1: that and say the safer option is to just trade
Speaker 1: for Gosman. So if there's a team out there that
Speaker 1: wants to take on an expensive starter this year, feels
Speaker 1: like they look at Gosman before Castillo.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, but he's not untradable. The Maritors are
Speaker 2: willing to take nothing back for Luis Castile, and someone
Speaker 2: will trade for him. Mm hmm, Like that's for sure, right, Kate.
Speaker 2: As a question on Pagereon, if you look at Joshneler's
Speaker 2: underlying metrics and his average with nobody on base compared
Speaker 2: to with runners on it's a significant increase in a
Speaker 2: positive direction when he's table setting. How do you guys
Speaker 2: feel about Naylor being the leadoff hitter?
Speaker 1: I mean, it's funny because you think about a guy that,
Speaker 1: by the numbers, as he points out, hits well with
Speaker 1: nobody else base and then steals bases. Doesn't feel like
Speaker 1: he should be stealing bases, but he does do some
Speaker 1: things that a leadoff hitter does. But I don't know
Speaker 1: if Naylor's overall hit well enough for the year to
Speaker 1: warrant being in a leadoff spot. Josh Naylor points over
Speaker 1: the last even week has been down hitting what's sixth
Speaker 1: because he's not hitting third or fourth. HeSE he's content
Speaker 1: he's consistently been moved down the lineup because he hasn't
Speaker 1: hit enough. I don't know if you can really justify
Speaker 1: him hitting lead off and.
Speaker 2: He only gets one guaranteed at bat every game with
Speaker 2: no one on base. Otherwise it's the same as everyone else. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I don't think that part's that much different. I also
Speaker 2: think the numbers lie a little bit. So he Kate's
Speaker 2: mentioning the average, and he's right. The average is significantly
Speaker 2: different between bases empty and runners on base is empty.
Speaker 2: Josh Nayler's hitting two ninety three, runners on base he's
Speaker 2: hitting two seventeen. I would tell you those pretty massive,
Speaker 2: massive difference. Yeah, Josh Nayeler's WRC plus with the with
Speaker 2: runners on as ninety four. With the bases empty, it's
Speaker 2: only one oh three. Yeah, it's not that different, right,
Speaker 2: He's just he doesn't slug at all, and he doesn't
Speaker 2: walk by the way when there's nobody on, which is
Speaker 2: kind of what you want your leadoff hitter to do
Speaker 2: with no one on. He's got a four and a
Speaker 2: half percent walk rate with runners on, he has an
Speaker 2: eleven percent walk rate.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I don't think it. I don't think he'll
Speaker 1: justifies it in the Mariners in the month of July too.
Speaker 1: It means, like you said, talk about a power outage. Man,
Speaker 1: he has got two extra base hits all month. He's
Speaker 1: opsing six forty five.
Speaker 2: The Mariners are currently getting a better on base percentage
Speaker 2: and ops out of their leadoff spot than when Josh
Speaker 2: Naylor does with the base is empty. Yeah, I don't
Speaker 2: think that would be the upgrade, KDE that you would
Speaker 2: be looking for. If it's somehow magically got Josh Naylor
Speaker 2: to be Josh Naylor of last season, then I think
Speaker 2: Law and I would be more interested in that. But
Speaker 2: there's right now nothing to see just that would be
Speaker 2: the case. No, Well, Nick on Patreon has quite the
Speaker 2: trade proposal. He asks, guys, how about this trade proposal?
Speaker 2: Dan Wilson goes back to the Reds for a handful
Speaker 2: of double played donut parfas from Great American Ballpark.
Speaker 1: How go to the par fays?
Speaker 2: Well, Nick gave us a bit of a review. He says,
Speaker 2: I was at a Reds game earlier this summer and
Speaker 2: the thing was amazing. Even though it says serves three
Speaker 2: to four, I ate the whole thing myself and it
Speaker 2: definitely brought me more joy than any managerial decision. Dan
Speaker 2: Wilson has ever made twelve many donuts layered with whipped
Speaker 2: cream and cinnamon toast crunch, crunch, et cetera.
Speaker 1: Unreal. Oh that does sound pretty good. Wow, Well, how.
Speaker 2: Many years does Dan I have left on his contract? Ye?
Speaker 1: See, they don't make these things public. I'm assuming one
Speaker 1: more after this year. A lot of man deals for
Speaker 1: three years. But wow, so do you those things do
Speaker 1: sound good?
Speaker 2: Do you want eight more months of Dan Wilson managing
Speaker 2: the Seattle Mariners or do you want twelve mini donuts
Speaker 2: with whipped cream and cinnamon toast crunch.
Speaker 1: Hmm. Let us know in the comments below what you think.
Speaker 2: That's that's quite a quite a proposal. Thank you for
Speaker 2: the question. Nick uh David on Patreon asks, in your opinion,
Speaker 2: does Cole Young deserve to be hitting at the top
Speaker 2: of the lineup? Not necessarily lead off, but three spot
Speaker 2: or maybe cleanup?
Speaker 1: Does Cole Young really have the profile to be hitting third?
Speaker 1: That feels a little much, doesn't it? An overall for
Speaker 1: the year, Well, he's been good. You're only talking about
Speaker 1: a one oh one ops plus most of Cole Young's value.
Speaker 1: I should say a lot of Cole Young's value for
Speaker 1: the year has been through the defensive side of the ball.
Speaker 1: He's not hitting great in the month of July. I mean,
Speaker 1: he's been had a bit of a down month this month.
Speaker 1: So I don't know. I think you can put him
Speaker 1: wherever you want in my mind, but I don't know
Speaker 1: about hitting him third. I don't think he does enough
Speaker 1: damage for that.
Speaker 2: He should stay at the bottom of the lineup. His yeah,
Speaker 2: you mentioned is July being down. I mean he's got
Speaker 2: a two seventeen on base percentage in July. I think
Speaker 2: him hitting at the bottom of the lineup is perfectly fine.
Speaker 2: The rest of the lineup has not hit very well.
Speaker 2: There's not many good cases to hit in the middle
Speaker 2: of this lineup. I don't think that guy is Cole Young.
Speaker 2: Like I think the best spot for Cole Young at
Speaker 2: the top of the lineup eventually, when he figures it
Speaker 2: out offensively over the course of a full season at
Speaker 2: the big league level, might be leadoff because he'll make
Speaker 2: some contact and he'll hopefully draw his walks maybe ten
Speaker 2: to eleven percent of the time, and he'd be on
Speaker 2: base for the Mariners that maybe a three to fifty
Speaker 2: on base percentage, but right now, no, I don't think
Speaker 2: there's anything to suggest that.
Speaker 1: I think he's a perfect nine hitter. I really do.
Speaker 1: And by the way, long term, I feel like leadoff
Speaker 1: might be more colt spot than Coal's when Colt figures
Speaker 1: it out. Not this year, but like long term.
Speaker 2: I feel like Colt might be hitting second.
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe that's true too. Col could hit second.
Speaker 2: If Colt is more of the pure hitter than Cole
Speaker 2: Young is. But I guess we'll see. They have plenty
Speaker 2: of time to prove that to us. Speaking of Colt Emerson,
Speaker 2: Dave on Patreon asks, when Brendan Donovan returns from the
Speaker 2: injured list, should the Mariner send Cole Emerson down to
Speaker 2: Tacoma to get his back going.
Speaker 1: No. I just don't know what that does, what Colt
Speaker 1: Emerson needs to work on or things that he has
Speaker 1: to fix in the major leagues. I don't think there's
Speaker 1: much more he can do. In a PCL where pitchers
Speaker 1: are just about as bad as ever down there and
Speaker 1: they don't throw a ton of strikes and they're out
Speaker 1: of the zone, I don't think it does that much
Speaker 1: good for him at this point, now that he's been
Speaker 1: up and played two months in the big leagues, I
Speaker 1: think for where Colt Emerson's at, he's just got to
Speaker 1: grow from this. He's just got to learn from this.
Speaker 1: He's just got to evolve from this. And I don't
Speaker 1: think him going back down to Triple A is gonna
Speaker 1: help him do much of that.
Speaker 2: Everything he just said is true. I do think if
Speaker 2: the Mariners have Leo Revoss down there from last year,
Speaker 2: they would send him down because at some point you
Speaker 2: put you got to prioritize the games at the big
Speaker 2: league level over development. The problem is Leo Revos, according
Speaker 2: to Ryan Davish, has vertigo, I think, and he's not
Speaker 2: even playing, So the Mariners don't really have a shortstop
Speaker 2: replacement Intocoma for Cole Emerson even if they wanted to.
Speaker 2: That means he should stay right up here, and the
Speaker 2: Mariners are just gonna have to accept while he is
Speaker 2: figuring things out at the plate, that his lineup spot
Speaker 2: is gonna be tough for a while. I mean it.
Speaker 2: In July he has a WRC plus of negative twenty nine.
Speaker 2: It's been really bad. Yeah, so he's gonna have some
Speaker 2: stuff to figure out and the Mariners just don't have
Speaker 2: many more options. And no, JP Crawford back at shortstop
Speaker 2: the way he's heetting is not an option. No, No,
Speaker 2: I guess you're gonna have a below average offensive player
Speaker 2: at shortstop. Just have it be Colt.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you just gotta let him build through this. Unfortunately.
Speaker 1: I know it's frustrating, but I just don't think he
Speaker 1: gets that much from going back to Tacoma.
Speaker 2: No, all right, we got one last question. This is
Speaker 2: from Ryan on Patreon. Ryan's question is is it possible
Speaker 2: that Kirby was capped at eighty pitches on Monday because
Speaker 2: there is some kind of preliminary trade in the works
Speaker 2: and they're trying to protect his arm ahead of finalizing
Speaker 2: the trade.
Speaker 1: So it's funny. I was talking to my dad about
Speaker 1: this before we even got the question. My dad brought
Speaker 1: it up and he said, the two of you mentioned
Speaker 1: Kirby's lack of success the third time through the order
Speaker 1: a lot we do. It's very true, George Kirby is
Speaker 1: not pitch well the third time through the order for
Speaker 1: a lot of his career, so he threw out there.
Speaker 1: Do you think they pulled him for the idea of
Speaker 1: keep his line clean, and it helps just a little
Speaker 1: bit his market while trying to deal him around to
Speaker 1: other teams if he's shopped around on the trade market.
Speaker 1: I think that idea, paired with what Ryan's saying right
Speaker 1: here about keeping his arm fresh and keeping him healthy possible. Yeah, No,
Speaker 1: for sure, we don't have sourced information behind this one
Speaker 1: way or the other. I still believe that if the
Speaker 1: Mariners were trying to do everything possible to win that
Speaker 1: game on Monday, that despite winning it, George Kirby should
Speaker 1: have kept pitching. Because if it's between Kirby the third
Speaker 1: time through and your absolute like low leverage bullpen arms,
Speaker 1: you go with Kirby, who's throwing really well through eighty pitches.
Speaker 1: But if you're trying to maximize his trade value and
Speaker 1: you want to make sure he's one healthy and two
Speaker 1: not getting crushed the third time through, it's not the
Speaker 1: craziest thought.
Speaker 2: I don't think it's crazy. Other I think it's totally
Speaker 2: a totally reasonable explanation for that. And for me, it's
Speaker 2: one hundred percent about keeping him healthy, less so about
Speaker 2: a cra I don't know if the other team would
Speaker 2: care that much about his era on the Mariners. They
Speaker 2: know who he is, they know what his stuff is like.
Speaker 2: They do care that he's healthy and that he has
Speaker 2: enough bullets for them at the trade deadline. It would
Speaker 2: be kind of early, though, because that happened on what
Speaker 2: is it, Friday?
Speaker 1: If it happens again its Monday, no, yeah, But if
Speaker 1: it happens again in his next turn through the rotation,
Speaker 1: that's going to be telling.
Speaker 2: Hmm, now, that would be that would be kind of telling.
Speaker 2: So let's keep an eye out for that. George Kirby
Speaker 2: makes his start on the road, how many pitches does
Speaker 2: he throw? Because it is that kind of It is
Speaker 2: that time of year and all these reports out that
Speaker 2: the Mariners are shopping around their starting pitchers. I wouldn't
Speaker 2: say it's more likely than not that one of them
Speaker 2: gets traded, but this is certainly as much noise as
Speaker 2: we've heard about them ever trading a starting pitcher at
Speaker 2: this deadline. Since this group's come together, yeah, I mean,
Speaker 2: we've floated a ton of ideas out there. It's just
Speaker 2: usually not substantiated from other sources. But now we have
Speaker 2: multiple big Nash store reporters talking about the Mariners trading
Speaker 2: as starting pitcher, and it just makes too much sense
Speaker 2: at this point with everything they've done with this rotation
Speaker 2: this year, with the six man rotation, that they're not
Speaker 2: actively trying to trade one of them away to make
Speaker 2: their team better.
Speaker 1: It's the only thing that really makes sense. I think. Well,
Speaker 1: good stuff you guys always bring in with the mailbag questions.
Speaker 1: If you want to get in on these mailbag questions,
Speaker 1: you can go sign up for our Patreon and you
Speaker 1: get priority on these every single week if you send
Speaker 1: us a question with that, that'll just about wrap up
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