1 00:00:02,880 --> 00:00:05,960 Speaker 1: Kevin Hassett serves as the head of the National Economic Council, 2 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:09,280 Speaker 1: which coordinates economic policy making at the White House. In 3 00:00:09,320 --> 00:00:11,600 Speaker 1: the first Trump term, he serves the head of the 4 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:14,120 Speaker 1: Council of Economic Advisors. I had a chance to sit 5 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 1: down with Kevin recently to talk about the Federal Reserve 6 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:19,960 Speaker 1: economic policy and also his prospects for being the next 7 00:00:20,079 --> 00:00:22,960 Speaker 1: chair of the Federal Reserve Board. Let's dig right into it. 8 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:26,479 Speaker 1: The government shutdown. Is it going to have any impact 9 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 1: on the GDP or not? 10 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:30,840 Speaker 2: Oh, for sure, it's going to have an impact on 11 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 2: this quarter GDP. That our estimate of the White House 12 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 2: is that each week that we were shut down is 13 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 2: worth about fifteen million dollars off of GDP. I think 14 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 2: the Golden guys have added all that up and guessed 15 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 2: that is between one and one and a half percent 16 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:51,640 Speaker 2: reduction in the growth rate of GDP this quarter. So 17 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 2: I was kind of feeling good about a three percent 18 00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 2: quarter before the shutdown. So I guess that means that 19 00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:58,960 Speaker 2: you think we'd be shooting in the one and a 20 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 2: half to two range now because of. 21 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: The GDP growth for the year, you think will be 22 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:03,279 Speaker 1: between one and a half and more. 23 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:06,039 Speaker 2: Oh, no, I'm talking about the fourth quarter, yeah, for 24 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 2: the year. Yeah, then we just have to average basically ten. Yeah, 25 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:13,120 Speaker 2: so it'll be two something. 26 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 1: Now, the inflation rate has been around three percent, three 27 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 1: point one percent or something like that. Do you see 28 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:20,840 Speaker 1: any chance of the Federal Reserve will get it down 29 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 1: to its target rate of two percent and near future? 30 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:24,039 Speaker 3: Is that on realistic? 31 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 2: What happened is that the Biden administration it got very 32 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 2: high averaged five percent, was still in the high threes 33 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 2: when we came in. And now, like if you look 34 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 2: at the latest CPI, it surprised forty eight of Bloomberg's 35 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:42,480 Speaker 2: people who forecast these things. On the downside, if you 36 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,679 Speaker 2: adjust for a refinery that shut down, then you're kind 37 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 2: of looking in the point two range. And so I 38 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:49,600 Speaker 2: think the inflation isn't all the way to where you 39 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 2: want it to be, but that the momentum is pretty directional. 40 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 2: And so I think that if you add to that 41 00:01:56,320 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 2: the basic idea that the policies that were precent right 42 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 2: now are increasing supply their supply side policies, that you 43 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 2: should expect that we could have growth like we're seeing 44 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:11,680 Speaker 2: without picking up Phillip's curve effects and inflation. 45 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 1: So you may have noticed the President was calling on 46 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 1: the chairman of the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. 47 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 3: And really he did, Yes, she did, And interest rates 48 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 3: have been lowered. 49 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 1: The last time the Federal Reserve FMC Committee met, they 50 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 1: lowered by twenty five basis points. There's a wide expectation 51 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:34,399 Speaker 1: that the Federal Reserve Board might lower again in December. 52 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:36,679 Speaker 1: Do you have a view on whether, if they've fed 53 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 1: does lower it should be twenty five basis points or 54 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:41,000 Speaker 1: fifty basis points of the president? Or do you have 55 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:42,800 Speaker 1: a view on what might be better for the economy. 56 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:45,920 Speaker 2: Well, you know, first want to say that I have 57 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:48,639 Speaker 2: high regard for Jay Powell. I've known him for a 58 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 2: long time, have had economic conversations with him many many 59 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:55,640 Speaker 2: times during the last administration. In this time too. I 60 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:57,959 Speaker 2: think at times he and I have had policy disagreevance. 61 00:02:58,120 --> 00:02:59,959 Speaker 3: You think it's more likely to do fifty than twenty. 62 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 2: I think they're not likely to do fifty giving but 63 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 2: more likely to. 64 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 3: Do twenty five. Would that satisfy the president? You think? 65 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 2: I think that the President thinks rates can be a 66 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:08,920 Speaker 2: lot lower, and I agree with him on that. 67 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 1: You are one of five people that the Secretary of 68 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:13,520 Speaker 1: Treasury has on a short list to be the next 69 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:14,359 Speaker 1: chairman of the FEDER. 70 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 3: Why would you want to be chairman of the feder? 71 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:18,880 Speaker 3: Right now? 72 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 1: You get to work with the President every day and 73 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:22,079 Speaker 1: he's not criticizing you at all. 74 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 3: So are you sure you want that job? 75 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 2: And you know it's a thing that first of all, 76 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 2: I have to say that I, as you know, feel 77 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:38,680 Speaker 2: like I'm the luckiest economist alive because I have the 78 00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 2: best job I think an economists could possibly have if 79 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 2: you spent your life doing economic policy, unless you're a 80 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 2: monetary theorist. Being Director of the National Ecademic Council is 81 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 2: my dream job. And if the President asked me to 82 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 2: be fed Cher, then of course I'll do it. But 83 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 2: if I'm not Fetchaer, don't be disappointed for me, because 84 00:03:58,600 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 2: I love the job that I have right now and 85 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 2: I'm so honored to be able to work with the 86 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:02,119 Speaker 2: President every day. 87 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 1: Do you have any view on when the President might 88 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 1: make the decision or make it public? 89 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 3: Would it be this year or next year? 90 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:09,680 Speaker 2: That I don't have a view on when the optical 91 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 2: time for that is, and I've not discussed that with 92 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:18,600 Speaker 2: the President. I think that people in Washington will understand that, 93 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:22,719 Speaker 2: you know, a confirmation struggle for a position that's that 94 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 2: significant can be quite difficult. And then if it goes 95 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 2: on for a really long time, which, like I said, 96 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:35,360 Speaker 2: we think Jay probably isn't leaving until May, then that 97 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:40,600 Speaker 2: just creates like a long period of you know, confirmation 98 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 2: struggles that can be pretty ugly. And so I don't 99 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 2: know what the optimal timee is, but I would guess 100 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 2: that as soon as you do it, then the sort 101 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,039 Speaker 2: of confirmation turmoil will begin. 102 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 1: Most presidents in the last twenty five years or so 103 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 1: have supported, in secretargy of treasures, supported what it's called 104 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 1: a strong dollar policy to have the dollar be really 105 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:03,839 Speaker 1: strong and never support anything that would lower it. Is 106 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:05,680 Speaker 1: it fair to say you do not have a strong 107 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 1: dollar policy? Are you happy where the dollar is now? 108 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 2: If you look at the dollar chart, then you know 109 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 2: it's stronger now than it was when Trump left office, 110 00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 2: but it's down a little bit from its peak. And 111 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:21,040 Speaker 2: I think the strong dollar policy is a sound policy. 112 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 2: And I think that, you know, basically, I don't almost 113 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:29,159 Speaker 2: say that if I were running any country anywhere, I 114 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 2: would want the currency to be sound, because we know 115 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 2: what happens to countries when the currency isn't sound, and 116 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 2: so I think if you want to have you know, 117 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:44,040 Speaker 2: an inflation take care of your deficit, then you're on 118 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:47,280 Speaker 2: the road to financial crisis. And so I think that 119 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:49,799 Speaker 2: one of the ways that we can maintain fiscal discipline 120 00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:52,720 Speaker 2: is to be really committed to a strong dollar. 121 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 1: Right now, the budget deficit has generally been the last 122 00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:00,160 Speaker 1: couple of years about two trillion dollars a year more like, yes, 123 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 1: more or less, we spend roughly seven trillion dollars a year. 124 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:06,840 Speaker 1: We've taken roughly five trillion a year, and we generally 125 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:09,119 Speaker 1: have about two trillion deficit. Maybe it's coming down now, 126 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:13,240 Speaker 1: but we have about thirty eight trillion overall of debt. 127 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 1: Do you see any way that to reduce that in 128 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:18,160 Speaker 1: debtedness in the next couple of years or so, we're 129 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:21,480 Speaker 1: realistically we're stuck with thirty eight trillion or rising a 130 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 1: little bit over the next couple of years. 131 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:25,359 Speaker 2: Right well. To reduce the debt right that, you have 132 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 2: to run a surplus. And so the question is do 133 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:30,880 Speaker 2: you reduce the debt relative to the target or not, 134 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 2: And we clearly are doing that with the big reductions 135 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 2: in the deficit, right now, and so I think that 136 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 2: those will continue. And I'm also extremely bulish about growth. 137 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 2: But it's not just growth that's doing it. It's the 138 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 2: fact that we have tariff revenue and we've got a 139 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:48,799 Speaker 2: lot more spending restraint than's here in the past. 140 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 1: Now on the tariffs and the big in the president's 141 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 1: tariff policy. It's really important part of his economic revenue 142 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:58,480 Speaker 1: because a lot of the revenue coming into the treasury 143 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 1: the president set is from tariffs. And if the Supreme 144 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 1: Court were a rule that the president's policy using the 145 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:09,160 Speaker 1: nineteen seventy seven trade legislation were not to be appropriate 146 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,840 Speaker 1: to raise this kind of revenue, what would the administration do. 147 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:15,120 Speaker 2: We're confident that we're going to win the case. What 148 00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 2: we're using is emergency authority, and so the first thing 149 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 2: you want to say as well, is an emergency. And 150 00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 2: it's an emergency I could think of for two reasons. 151 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 2: One is fentanyl and the hundreds of thousands of deaths 152 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 2: from fentanyl, and two is you know, my friend Angus 153 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:33,240 Speaker 2: Eaton wrote this book with his wife and case about 154 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 2: Deaths of Despair, about how the massive trade deficits we've 155 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 2: had because China's dumping stuff everywhere and wiping out towns 156 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 2: and shutting down factories, you know, the deaths of despair. 157 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 2: There's like a whole best selling book by Nobel Prizewitter 158 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 2: about that. And so I think the case that both 159 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:55,120 Speaker 2: the sustained trade deficit because China and other countries have 160 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 2: a policy to create jobs in their own country by 161 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:00,800 Speaker 2: selling stuff as cheap as possible to the less that, 162 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 2: I think that the emergency case is really really solid. 163 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:06,880 Speaker 2: And so then the question is when the law says 164 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 2: that we have the authority to regulate trade, then does 165 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 2: that mean tariffs? Since it says regulate trade but it 166 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 2: doesn't say the word tariff. And I think that that's 167 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 2: a pretty dry case too, because if you're going to 168 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:21,680 Speaker 2: regulate tariff, for example, this came up in the oral arguments. Well, 169 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 2: one thing you could do to regulate tariffs would be 170 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 2: an embargo, and a tariff is less significant than an 171 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 2: a bargo. So if you could do it a bargo, 172 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 2: then it's really you could do a tariff, or to 173 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 2: make the economist argument that you could definitely do a quota. 174 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:35,160 Speaker 2: No one would challenge that. 175 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:38,719 Speaker 1: Now, most people in your profession economics profession would say 176 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 1: that a tariff is a tax, and it's somewhat inflationary. 177 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 3: Is that your view that tariffs are inflationary. 178 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:47,440 Speaker 2: The first thing is that if there is a price effect, 179 00:08:47,480 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 2: it's not inflationary. It's a level adjust effect. So you 180 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:52,679 Speaker 2: have a tariff, and then that if it has a 181 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 2: price effect, it changes the price and whatever that price changes, 182 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:59,480 Speaker 2: that causes the inflation or deflation, whatever that happens because 183 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 2: of the price of back to the tariff, and then 184 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 2: the tariff, unless of changes, doesn't do that again. And 185 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 2: so it's not an inflationary thing. It's a level adjust thing. 186 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:09,960 Speaker 2: And my intuition from the beginning has been that it 187 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 2: wouldn't be inflationary because the reason we have the emergency 188 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 2: that we're talking about is that we have inelastic supply 189 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:23,520 Speaker 2: of Chinese goods and other goods from all the countries 190 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 2: that are dumping stuff into the US. And so by definition, 191 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:30,760 Speaker 2: if you put a tariff or attacks on inelastic supply, 192 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,439 Speaker 2: then the inelastic supplier bears the thing. 193 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:36,480 Speaker 1: The theory behind tariffs, I thought, was to even out 194 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:39,840 Speaker 1: the trade balance and to some extent and maybe raise revenue. 195 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 1: But President has imposed tariffs on countries with which we 196 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:47,000 Speaker 1: have a surplus like Brazil. What's the theory behind imposing 197 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 1: a surplus or a tariff? 198 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 3: I wanted something like Brazil. 199 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 2: Tariff policy is very complicated and there are a lot 200 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 2: of things that we're studying carefully right now in this 201 00:09:57,360 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 2: kind of space. Tariffs, if you want them to have 202 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 2: and affect the economy, you have to really really look at, 203 00:10:03,559 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 2: like how are we really collecting the tariff, and how 204 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:10,840 Speaker 2: are we making sure that people aren't transhipping, people aren't 205 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 2: funneling things through subsidiaries and so on, and so I 206 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:16,760 Speaker 2: think that that's part of the overall calculus. 207 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:19,320 Speaker 1: If the president does not select you, are you going 208 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 1: to stay in the administration in your current position. 209 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 3: Yes, if he does. 210 00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 2: Mean if he decides that's the righteous. 211 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:26,600 Speaker 3: Okay, if he wants you to stay. 212 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:29,839 Speaker 1: But if he does select you, then you have to 213 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 1: get ready for confirmation, and you expect that would be 214 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:33,920 Speaker 1: political a bit. 215 00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 2: It probably would be political. I've been through it before, 216 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:40,880 Speaker 2: not that I'm counting. I think I had eighty three 217 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 2: votes last time. 218 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 1: I'm sure the president will get recommendations. But if you 219 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:47,079 Speaker 1: were to recommend person for the job, in other words, 220 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:49,120 Speaker 1: if the president was watching right now, he might be. 221 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:51,680 Speaker 1: And you were to say, well, here's why you would 222 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:53,320 Speaker 1: be qualified to be chairm of the FED, what would 223 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:53,680 Speaker 1: you say? 224 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 2: I don't want to compare to others, but I would 225 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:58,240 Speaker 2: say that the reason why I could be ready to 226 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:01,319 Speaker 2: get to work right away is that I spent five 227 00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:04,880 Speaker 2: years working at the FED. I work closely with Alan 228 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 2: Greenspan at times, and have seen what's good and bad 229 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 2: about the way the FED people think, and there's a 230 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 2: lot of bad. And I think that somebody who can 231 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 2: go in and basically by view is that the staff 232 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:20,559 Speaker 2: has a big effect on the decisions of the FED, 233 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:25,840 Speaker 2: and this staff historically has been excessively influenced by two thoughts. 234 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 2: One thought is that Kynes was right, Canes had value, 235 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 2: but you don't have to be a Keynesian like a 236 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 2: religious Kanesian. But the second thing is that there's been 237 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 2: a lack of willingness that really started with green Span 238 00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 2: to show deference and respect to the corner of the 239 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 2: macro literature that I think is really important, which is 240 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:54,560 Speaker 2: conditional expectations, time series analysis, the Stock and Watson type 241 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:57,839 Speaker 2: stuff for the economists here. And so if you're running 242 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:00,480 Speaker 2: the FED, then having the best forecaster of the world 243 00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:03,319 Speaker 2: who are really building nonlinear time series models and so on, 244 00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:04,679 Speaker 2: would be a good investment. 245 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 1: Did President know that you worked for mid Romney, John 246 00:12:09,000 --> 00:12:10,200 Speaker 1: McCain and George W. 247 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 3: Bush earlier in your career? 248 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 2: Does he ever, he's seen my whole resume after. 249 00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 3: Okay, so he didn't hold that against you, obviously. Yeah. 250 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 2: I guess that there have been a lot of people 251 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:23,440 Speaker 2: that have come into government with worse backgrounds. 252 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 1: So that you grew up, I grew up in Massachusetts. 253 00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:28,559 Speaker 1: You went to Swarthmore. How did you pick Swarthmore? 254 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 2: I grew up in a small town and I didn't 255 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:30,520 Speaker 2: want to go to it. 256 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 3: Well, you'd always conservative as a youth? Or were you 257 00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 3: a liberal? Then? 258 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:36,320 Speaker 2: You know, my mom was a kindergarten teacher in my 259 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 2: hometown who was on the Republican State Committee in Massachusetts, 260 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 2: and so all she was like the little old lady 261 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 2: that made apple pies that everybody knew in Massachusetts said, 262 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 2: and so I, yeah, I and my dad was very 263 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 2: much a Democrat who disagreed with my mom on everything, 264 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 2: and so I got the dinner table was really fun 265 00:12:53,040 --> 00:12:53,719 Speaker 2: and I did it. 266 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 3: Irish, say, what happened when you turned out this way? 267 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:58,680 Speaker 3: Or they never said no, No, they didn't say that. 268 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 1: So you went to Swarthmore's Arthmore is I would say, 269 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 1: maybe left of center compared to some other schools. So 270 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:07,439 Speaker 1: were you did you stand out there as a conservative? 271 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 2: The rumor is Nixon called it the kremlin on the crumb. 272 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:13,719 Speaker 2: I think that that actually is true. But you know, 273 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 2: you know, Sophomore especially then was a place that had 274 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:23,200 Speaker 2: legitimate diversity of thought. And yeah, I was one of 275 00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:27,360 Speaker 2: the conservatives there, but I didn't feel like I was 276 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:28,080 Speaker 2: attacked for it. 277 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:29,720 Speaker 1: And then you went to get your pH d at 278 00:13:29,800 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 1: University of Pennsylvania, And what did you know then that 279 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:36,360 Speaker 1: you wanted to be an academic PhD economist your whole life? 280 00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 3: Is that what you wanted to do when you went 281 00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 3: to penn. 282 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, I thought that that's what I was really enjoying 283 00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 2: doing research. And then my first job was at Columbia University, 284 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:46,840 Speaker 2: and I did a lot of research. When I was 285 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 2: at the FED, I did a lot of research. I'm 286 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:48,800 Speaker 2: still doing research. 287 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 1: No attraction to business, private equity, hedge funds, nothing like that. 288 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:55,320 Speaker 3: You weren't interested. Yeah. 289 00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:57,760 Speaker 2: The problem with private equity guys is they buy something, 290 00:13:57,760 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 2: then they got to wait five years and just watch it. 291 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 2: They get their carryer, right, I mean, well. 292 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 3: We can sell it sooner. 293 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 1: But okay, so you have him intempted to go to 294 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:11,439 Speaker 1: Wall Street. Right, let's talk about how economic policy has 295 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 1: made in this administration. So there's a president wanted to 296 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 1: have his advisors come together and you hash out things 297 00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:18,880 Speaker 1: in the Oval office. 298 00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:20,160 Speaker 3: How do you actually make policy? 299 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 2: It depends on the gravity of the policy that there 300 00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:31,480 Speaker 2: are things that happen every day that you get resolved 301 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:34,160 Speaker 2: by cabinet secretaries. And every now and then the cabinet 302 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:36,720 Speaker 2: secretary will want to know, what do you think the 303 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 2: president would think about this? And then maybe I'll say, oh, 304 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure he already talked to me about this 305 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:43,720 Speaker 2: six months ago. He's fine if you do it this way. 306 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 2: And so there's a lot of smaller things that because 307 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 2: they have a ginormous government, that have to be resolved 308 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:54,320 Speaker 2: by the cabinet secretaries, often in consultation with the Chief 309 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,680 Speaker 2: of Staff's office and US and a Domestic Policy Council 310 00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:02,239 Speaker 2: and so on. The bigger things that require presidential decisions, 311 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 2: they very often what happens is we'll have a meeting, 312 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 2: often in the Roosevelt Room, where the principals will say, well, 313 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:12,120 Speaker 2: here are the options we think we should give the president, 314 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 2: and then we will sort of usually draft the people 315 00:15:16,680 --> 00:15:19,280 Speaker 2: who are for and against each of the things and 316 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 2: then go into the oval and discuss them with him. 317 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 2: But he always wants to have the people who support 318 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 2: the thing that he's being advised to do with the 319 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 2: people who don't, unless, obviously there's some things that everybody 320 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:31,920 Speaker 2: supports so much that you just can't do that. But 321 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 2: he really likes to have lively debate in the oval, 322 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 2: and if you're not giving him enough debate, he'll he'll 323 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 2: work it out and make sure you get well. 324 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 1: You go in there, and when you debate with him, 325 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 1: does he ever say let me think about it overnight, 326 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 1: or does say he makes a decision right then and there. 327 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 2: He does say that. He does definitely says I need 328 00:15:51,560 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 2: to think about it. 329 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 1: That happens, yeah, and then afterwards the people go whisper 330 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:57,360 Speaker 1: in his ear after everybody else is gone, here's what 331 00:15:57,400 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 1: you should do? 332 00:15:57,800 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 3: What does that ever happen? 333 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 2: It's a thing that that really, you know, I come 334 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:08,520 Speaker 2: in Susie Wilds especially that there is a risk that 335 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:11,920 Speaker 2: the most convincing person in any administration is the person 336 00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 2: who talked to the president last, and then that creates, 337 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:19,000 Speaker 2: you know, kind of like a you know, a competition 338 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 2: to like check his you know, sleeping schedule and decide that, 339 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 2: you know, who's the one who's going to call him 340 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 2: right before he goes to sleep. And that's something that 341 00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,400 Speaker 2: every president has to deal with, and that I think 342 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 2: that you know, this administration is dealt really well with 343 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 2: compared to previous administrations. 344 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:37,600 Speaker 1: You're one of the few people working in the White 345 00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 1: House now who work in the first term as well. 346 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 2: So I when people asked me if I was going 347 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 2: to come back, I had a joke about it. I 348 00:16:44,680 --> 00:16:48,440 Speaker 2: said that I was Trump season one, and I think 349 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:50,920 Speaker 2: I'll probably be the Christmas special for your season two. 350 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:54,960 Speaker 1: The Big Beautiful Bill did have everything the President pretty 351 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 1: much wanted in the legislative arena. Is there any legislative 352 00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:02,840 Speaker 1: a bill that president wants remainder of this term? 353 00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:06,919 Speaker 2: For sure, We're going to be using future reconciliations to 354 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 2: improve the American economy with better policy. We got a 355 00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:12,919 Speaker 2: lot of the things we wanted done then, but there 356 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:14,639 Speaker 2: are a lot of other things to do. One of 357 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:17,119 Speaker 2: the things that we're spending a lot of time on 358 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 2: is thinking about the state of housing in America and 359 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:24,440 Speaker 2: the fact that first time home buyers have seen their 360 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:26,320 Speaker 2: age go up over the last five years from like 361 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 2: thirty to forty, and so you've got to be forty 362 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 2: years old before you could buy your first house now 363 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 2: because mortgage rates went up so much over the last 364 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:38,359 Speaker 2: few years that the typical monthly payment about doubled and 365 00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 2: nobody can buy house. 366 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 1: The President of other day, maybe he would support a 367 00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 1: fifty year mortgage. Is that going to be the policy 368 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 1: of administration. 369 00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:47,320 Speaker 2: I don't know if the President's decided that he wants 370 00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:49,919 Speaker 2: to do that. I do know that we've been having 371 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:53,640 Speaker 2: meetings with principles in the White House to talk about 372 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:55,720 Speaker 2: what we can do about housing. And there's a whole 373 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:58,920 Speaker 2: list of possible things that haven't been fully edited. But 374 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:01,960 Speaker 2: a fifty year mortgage, you could you could argue in 375 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:06,040 Speaker 2: favor of it that it could reduce the monthly payment, 376 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:07,880 Speaker 2: which would make it easier for people to get into 377 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:12,439 Speaker 2: a home. And then the flip side is that the 378 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:15,480 Speaker 2: equity that people would acquire over time would be spread 379 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 2: out over a longer time period. 380 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:19,119 Speaker 1: What would you say the President would say, or you 381 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 1: would say is his greatest economic accomplishment to date? And 382 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:24,280 Speaker 1: what would you say is our greatest economic challenge for 383 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 1: the remainder of the term. 384 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:31,840 Speaker 2: I would say that he cares most about how well 385 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:36,200 Speaker 2: Americans are doing, and in the first term, like we've 386 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 2: only been here for half a year a little more, 387 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,199 Speaker 2: but in the first term that I can remember when 388 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:44,560 Speaker 2: we were talking about the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, 389 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:47,600 Speaker 2: that I went in and I had a simulation of 390 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 2: what I thought it would do for ecommy how much 391 00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:52,879 Speaker 2: GDP would go up, and we had a simulation that 392 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:55,439 Speaker 2: GDP growth could get back up around three which was 393 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 2: controversial at the time because everybody believed in the new 394 00:18:58,119 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 2: normal and we were only stuck in the once. And 395 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:02,360 Speaker 2: then he kind of looked at me and he said, 396 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:04,919 Speaker 2: I don't want to talk about GDP. Come back and 397 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 2: tell me what it means for ordinary people. And so 398 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:11,119 Speaker 2: then the next day we came in and I had 399 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:16,080 Speaker 2: reviewed a large labor literature on what happens to wages 400 00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:19,359 Speaker 2: when we have big corporate tax reductions, and I told 401 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:22,960 Speaker 2: him that, well, if we passed the bill, then people's 402 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:26,200 Speaker 2: wages will go up between four and eight thousand dollars 403 00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:28,560 Speaker 2: was the range of estimates in the literature, and then 404 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 2: he said, well, I'm going to promise for I want 405 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 2: to utter promise, but that's going to be our message 406 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 2: if you go back and look, four thousand dollars increase 407 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:39,479 Speaker 2: in wages was the main storyline of Tikja as we 408 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 2: were trying to get it passed. I haven't asked him this. 409 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 2: The thing one he would say is that I was 410 00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:47,480 Speaker 2: able to deliver for the American people wage increases that 411 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 2: hadn't really happened for the previous twenty years. The second 412 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:52,879 Speaker 2: thing that I think he would want to say. I 413 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 2: know you said pick one, but I do think that 414 00:19:56,680 --> 00:20:00,480 Speaker 2: he has believed in tariffs his whole life, and a 415 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 2: lot of people thought that the teriffs would come in 416 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 2: and cause a recession and cause inflation, and his intuition 417 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 2: was that they wouldn't and they haven't. And I think 418 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:12,240 Speaker 2: that we've learned a lot about like how terroists fit 419 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:15,840 Speaker 2: into an optimal fiscal policy because of him, and I 420 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 2: would say that that would be a great accomplishment as well. 421 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:21,400 Speaker 3: The tariff policy. Is it complete now our wards? 422 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 1: Have he finished negotiating the major deals with the countries, 423 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 1: he wants to negotiating with or is it still an 424 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 1: ongoing process. 425 00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 2: It's an ongoing process. It's going ongoing process. I think 426 00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 2: that one of the things that people have been talking 427 00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:37,720 Speaker 2: about just the last few days is, you know, thinking 428 00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:41,639 Speaker 2: about changing tariffs for food stuffs and things. So I 429 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,479 Speaker 2: think that they're going to be more changes, and there 430 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:47,159 Speaker 2: have been really big changes. And then one of the 431 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:51,280 Speaker 2: things that people forget about, like prudent policy making. I'm 432 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 2: sure that President Carter would have agreed with this point, 433 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 2: is that you do what you think is right, and 434 00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,360 Speaker 2: then you watch what happens, and then when you see 435 00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:01,240 Speaker 2: things that you need to adjust, you adjust them. 436 00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:03,639 Speaker 1: Are you worried that there's a bubble in the AI 437 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 1: valuations of certain companies and that this could come down 438 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:09,159 Speaker 1: to haunt us or you think there's no bubble and 439 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:13,119 Speaker 1: the AI valuations of companies are consistent with what they 440 00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:13,520 Speaker 1: should be. 441 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:16,359 Speaker 2: So if you think about what AI is doing right now, 442 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:21,639 Speaker 2: is that it's increasing the productivity of workers and firms 443 00:21:22,080 --> 00:21:25,919 Speaker 2: or capital and labor, and it's doing so at a 444 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 2: remarkable rate. And the firms that are helping other firms 445 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:34,920 Speaker 2: use AI are making a lot of money because they're 446 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:38,119 Speaker 2: helping ordinary businesses make lots of money. And so if 447 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 2: you looked at the earning season, it was the earning 448 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:44,680 Speaker 2: season with the most positive surprises ever. So what that means, 449 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 2: I think, is that the AI revolution is creating a 450 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:51,199 Speaker 2: huge amount of value. And now who captures the value 451 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:55,639 Speaker 2: and so on? It's you know, markets will work it out. 452 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 2: But if you compare this to the computer revolution started 453 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 2: in ninety four ninety five, maybe when Navigator came out 454 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:06,960 Speaker 2: was a place you really start the clock. Then economists 455 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 2: were all like, oh, well, the computer is everywhere, but 456 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,920 Speaker 2: in the statistics, you know. And the thing about AI 457 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:15,840 Speaker 2: is that it's so powerful that it's already in the statistics, 458 00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 2: but that the valuation could be really really high because 459 00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 2: it is increasing productivity and profitability so much, and in 460 00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:28,199 Speaker 2: that the fact that it's visible already. That's quite a 461 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,200 Speaker 2: bit different than the computer's situation of the nineties. 462 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:33,120 Speaker 3: If the president asked you to serve in a third 463 00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:34,399 Speaker 3: Trump term, would you do that? 464 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:38,679 Speaker 2: I don't think there's going to be a season three. 465 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:41,919 Speaker 1: Oh okay, you don't think you'd ask you Okay, So 466 00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 1: final final question for you on the whole, are you 467 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:51,359 Speaker 1: please with where the administration's economic policy is right now, 468 00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:53,439 Speaker 1: how would you make it better or do something different. 469 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 2: We're going to have more policy proposals that will improve policy. 470 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 2: I think we're focused on communicating better, so we want 471 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,520 Speaker 2: policy better and communication to be better. But I think 472 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:06,800 Speaker 2: that in the end, what matters, and this goes back 473 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:10,440 Speaker 2: to a great literature started by Ray Fair at Yale University, 474 00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,200 Speaker 2: is that in the end, you can communicate all you want. 475 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 2: People are going to look at their wallets, people are 476 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,879 Speaker 2: going to go to the grocery store, and in the end, 477 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:20,199 Speaker 2: I think that that means that we got to get 478 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:24,680 Speaker 2: policy right and focus on communication. But communication is more 479 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 2: of a political thing in the end. You know, if 480 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 2: we put more money in people's pockets, then they'll celebrate 481 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:34,360 Speaker 2: our policies, and if we fail to do that, then 482 00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:36,800 Speaker 2: they'll rightly condemn them. 483 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,479 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to hear more of my interviews. You 484 00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:43,639 Speaker 1: can subscribe and download my podcast on Spotify, Apple, or 485 00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:44,480 Speaker 1: wherever you listen.