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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss. All right. Here we

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Speaker 2: got growing up shop. I'm sitting up to cats.

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Speaker 3: See most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 3: to Wind. That's incredible, big bank, small banks. I like

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Speaker 3: to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kaba you want to pull.

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Speaker 3: And we are under way. What's up, everybody? Welcome to

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Speaker 3: the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybond. This

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Speaker 3: is your NFL Week six betting preview. It is October,

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Speaker 3: the best month of the sports gambling calendar. So today

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Speaker 3: we're gonna build our Sunday six pack of best bets

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Speaker 3: against the spread with the help of my co host,

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Speaker 3: the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck. What's going on?

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Speaker 2: Let us style the six pack again? Last week you

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Speaker 2: swept again. We have to get our producer to I

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Speaker 2: was just looking to update our six pack count because

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Speaker 2: there was a two and a half out there that

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Speaker 2: you got on Jacksonville. So we have to keep that

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Speaker 2: streak going. You go for four straight sweeps. I had

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Speaker 2: my second winless group of games on the season. Slow

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Speaker 2: start to the NFL the year for me. I'm twenty five,

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Speaker 2: twenty four and two. But there's like two to three

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Speaker 2: games every week that comes down to the end, and

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Speaker 2: one one out of twelve has gone my way. I'm

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Speaker 2: not really too worried about the slow start. It's time

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Speaker 2: to get on a roll, so I'm excited for a

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Speaker 2: bit of a bizarre week six late. I mean, there's

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Speaker 2: a there's the most home dogs, it looks like in

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Speaker 2: NFL history is what we're headed for theme of the

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Speaker 2: year so far. Just it feels like an increase an injury.

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Speaker 2: So that's certainly something that we're going to have to

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Speaker 2: skate around and mention as we go through the games.

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Speaker 2: But I think that there's some opportunities for some dogs.

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Speaker 3: There's actually some picks I pivoted off of. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: we'll get to all that. We'll start with Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 3: But before we get into it, just want to shout

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Speaker 3: out our Action Network colleague Sean Zerrero, who's continuing his

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Speaker 3: terrific MLB betting season into the playoffs. If you're an

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Speaker 3: Action Pro subscriber, you get access to instant notifications anytime

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Speaker 3: Action experts like Sean Stuckey or myself make a pick

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Speaker 3: in the Action app. Just visit Actionnetwork Dot com slash

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Speaker 3: Pro use the promo code October o ct O b

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Speaker 3: e R for fifteen percent off at Action Pro subscription.

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Speaker 3: That's fifteen percent off at actionnetwork dot Com slash Pro

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Speaker 3: with the promo code October. All right, let's start with

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Speaker 3: this Thursday night game.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday night football.

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Speaker 3: Should be a good one. I think we got San

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Speaker 3: Francisco going to Seattle, a desperate Niner team. Plus three

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Speaker 3: and a half is Seattle at home. The total is

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Speaker 3: up to forty nine. So what did you think of

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Speaker 3: Seattle last week? Just in a great spot against the

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Speaker 3: Giants without neighbors, just kind of blowing that one. In

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Speaker 3: San Francisco in a great spot at home against Arizona,

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Speaker 3: blowing that one. I mean, who's more desperate? Now? Got

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Speaker 3: to be San fran right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean sitting at two and three, I mean

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Speaker 2: San Francisco I thought, I mean, they had that they

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Speaker 2: were in control of that game. They lost their kicker,

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Speaker 2: which just caused some weirdness. Seattle I think was a victim.

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Speaker 2: I know that Neighbors didn't play, but I think Seattle

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Speaker 2: was a victim of the spot of their own horrible spot,

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Speaker 2: and that doesn't get any easier this week. I mean, look,

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Speaker 2: you go back. They start the year, they host the

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Speaker 2: Broncos in Seattle, travel across the country to New England,

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Speaker 2: they come back across the country to play Miami. They

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Speaker 2: then go to Detroit, so back east, then come home

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Speaker 2: on a short week, and they've had all kinds of

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Speaker 2: defensive injuries. I mean, this team has to be Gas,

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Speaker 2: and how does that not repeat itself this week against

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Speaker 2: the point nine ers would be Look, so now it's

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Speaker 2: another short week, playing on Thursday night. Their defense was

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Speaker 2: on the field the entire game against the Giants, so

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Speaker 2: we'll see if they're closer to full health here. But

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Speaker 2: that defense has to be extremely fatigued. I mean, even

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Speaker 2: the points that they did score. The Giants went on

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Speaker 2: a sixteen play ten minute drive and then fumbled at

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Speaker 2: the goal line that was returned one hundred yards, So

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Speaker 2: then the defense just comes right back on the field.

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Speaker 2: So they have to be Gas, which is I would

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Speaker 2: be concerned there. So my numbers show value on Seattle

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Speaker 2: because I make this under a field goal, but the spot,

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Speaker 2: the fatigue, and then also Mike McDonald have a ton

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Speaker 2: of respect for he is a first time head coach. Historically,

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Speaker 2: first time head coaches in their first short week game

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Speaker 2: on Thursday night have just been horrendous, both straight up

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Speaker 2: and against the spread. It's a different level of preparation.

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Speaker 2: Experience matters on the staff and from a head coaching perspective,

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Speaker 2: so Shanahan definitely has an edge there. We saw it

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Speaker 2: earlier in the season with Mayo and the Patriots and

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Speaker 2: they just looked discombobulated from the start. So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: just am concerned about the Seattle fatigue. On defense, Gino

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Speaker 2: Smith's been really good, that offense has been good. I

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Speaker 2: agree with the over move. The overtook some money early on,

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Speaker 2: even though this is like a divisional in important divisional game,

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Speaker 2: voodoo primetime unders, I get it. It's cross forty seven

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Speaker 2: and forty eight now, so I don't really love it now.

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Speaker 2: But if there's this is a slow start, I could

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Speaker 2: envision coming in on a live over. It's probably a

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Speaker 2: pass for me from a side perspective, just because I

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Speaker 2: think the adjustment to three and a half is fairly

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Speaker 2: warranted because of the spot, because of the fatigue here

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Speaker 2: for Seattle, and you know, the first time head coach

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Speaker 2: on in his first Thursday night game factor. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: while I make it close two and a half, I

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Speaker 2: get why this crossed the three. So this is probably

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Speaker 2: a pass for me.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think San Francisco wins this game. I don't

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Speaker 3: want to wait three and a half. If you forced

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Speaker 3: me to make a play, I'd probably just play the

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Speaker 3: money line. But I just think San Francisco is not

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Speaker 3: dropping a two and four here. Now. The thing working

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Speaker 3: in Seattle's favor I will say, is that Shanahan has

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Speaker 3: kind of owned the Seahawk over the last what maybe

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Speaker 3: two three years, but now you have but you have

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Speaker 3: a new regime, So I mean maybe that's a positive,

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Speaker 3: but like you said, there's also negative trends in terms

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Speaker 3: of you know, being on being a first time coach

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Speaker 3: in a short week. Favorites tend to, you know, do

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Speaker 3: better on short weeks. So I think the Niners win

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Speaker 3: this game. I just can't see them falling to two

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Speaker 3: and four. I mean, they shouldn't have lost that game

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Speaker 3: against Arizona. I'm interested to see if Jordan Mason gets

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Speaker 3: the same Workloade in this one or like what the

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Speaker 3: if there's any adjustment there, because it is a short week,

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Speaker 3: you know, do they trust the rookie girndo to take

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Speaker 3: more carries? I mean, Seattle just got torched by a

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Speaker 3: rookie Tyrone Tracy against the Giants, so that's that'll be interesting.

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Speaker 3: But overall, yeah, San Francisco is a little little bit

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Speaker 3: shaky on defense these days. I mean, no Halfonga Warner's

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Speaker 3: been in and out of the lineup. The line isn't

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Speaker 3: quite the same as it as it always was. But

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Speaker 3: I still think think San Francisco has enough on offense

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Speaker 3: and defense to get this done. All right, let's move

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Speaker 3: to the Sunday six.

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Speaker 1: Pack Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six.

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Speaker 3: Pack before we get into it, some top level notes

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Speaker 3: from our director of research, Evan Abrams. NFL dogs of

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Speaker 3: six or more this year are now eleven and eight

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Speaker 3: straight up, so winning outright more than fifty percent of

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Speaker 3: the time. Kirkaparrison four and sixteen straight up through five

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Speaker 3: weeks last season through five weeks, it's the first time

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Speaker 3: since nineteen sixty the Dogs of six or more are

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Speaker 3: over five hundred straight up and against the spread. They're

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Speaker 3: sixteen two in one, the best winning percentage ever, so

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Speaker 3: that's something to note. There just hasn't been those monster

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Speaker 3: dogs though, like those double digit dogs this year, a

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Speaker 3: lot of closer, you know, single digit within a touchdown

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Speaker 3: type of dog, so you expect those to win outright

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Speaker 3: a little bit more, I will say that. But that

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Speaker 3: is interesting. Nonetheless, you have a seventeen point deficit to

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Speaker 3: make up. Oh yeah, man, but I think you came

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Speaker 3: from behind last year, so you can't catch you right out.

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Speaker 2: The most I was down last year was eleven seventeen. Yes,

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna have to put together like like you've done.

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Speaker 2: I got to go like three straight sweeps every week.

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Speaker 2: I've liked a lot of your picks that you've taken,

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Speaker 2: said I like them again this week, so hopefully that's

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Speaker 2: a good sign.

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Speaker 3: I feel like that's rarer. I feel like in past

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Speaker 3: seasons it hasn't been as much. But yeah, that's good

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Speaker 3: to know. But all right, I'll weed it off this

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Speaker 3: week for my first pick, the first overall of the week,

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Speaker 3: Number six Sunday six pack. Getting real ugly right off

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Speaker 3: the bat, the New England Patriots plus seven at home

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Speaker 3: against the Houston Texans. The four and one Houston Texans

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Speaker 3: who just knocked off the Buffalo Bills and held Josh

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Speaker 3: Allen to less than what completing a third of his passes.

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Speaker 3: I like the Patriots here. I like the uncertainty that

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Speaker 3: you get from Drake May. I like the upside that

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Speaker 3: you get from Drake May, especially with a number this big,

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Speaker 3: because you got to consider plus seven at home a

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Speaker 3: big number, and you know, twenty twenty four. But as

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Speaker 3: you mentioned, stuck last week, Houston just isn't right. And

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Speaker 3: I think that Nico Collins loss is a big loss.

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Speaker 3: Nico got placed on IR and listen to this. You

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Speaker 3: know how we look at early downs because they're more

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Speaker 3: predictive than you know, third down. There's a lot of variants.

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Speaker 3: Early down success rate the Houston Texans thirty first in

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Speaker 3: the National Football League, ahead of only the Cleveland Browns.

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Speaker 3: Houston is worse than New England in pass early down

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Speaker 3: success spright rush early down success rate, and total offensive

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Speaker 3: early down success rate. Nico Collens and that was with

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Speaker 3: Nico Collins even in the gaming got hurt last week.

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Speaker 2: He caught a long box receiver in the NFL thish.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he's leading the league in receiving yards, so seventeen

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Speaker 3: point seven yards a catch twelve point six a target,

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Speaker 3: a six point seven percent touchdown rate. When Stroud is

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Speaker 3: not thrown to Nico in twenty twenty four, he's averaging

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Speaker 3: just six point two yards in attempt and a two

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Speaker 3: point nine percent touchdown rate. And for Stroud's career, Nico

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Speaker 3: Collins has accounted for thirty three percent of his passing

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Speaker 3: yardage and his Stroud's career numbers with that with Nico

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Speaker 3: compared to without, sixty five point two completion drops to

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Speaker 3: sixty two point seven yards per temp goes from eight

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Speaker 3: point one to six point nine, and his touchdown rate

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Speaker 3: goes from four point four to three point eight. So

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Speaker 3: massive loss here for an offense that was already out

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Speaker 3: of sorts, and now you're facing you're going on the road,

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Speaker 3: where Stroud already has just been a lot more human

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Speaker 3: for his career. Stroud nine and two straight up at

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Speaker 3: home with a one oh six passer rating, four and

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Speaker 3: five on the road with just a ninety two passer rating.

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Speaker 3: The yards for attempt goes from eight point seven to

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Speaker 3: seven point three, a touchdown rate from five point four

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Speaker 3: percent to three point two percent. So Stroud already, you know,

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Speaker 3: outdoors away from home, has been a lot more human.

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Speaker 3: Now you take Nico out of the mix. Now you

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Speaker 3: get this uncertainty with this you know Patriot, this new

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Speaker 3: Patriot quarterback who their offensive line is terrible.

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Speaker 2: Especially they need him in there. People are arguing. The

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Speaker 2: people are like, oh, you can't throw him in there.

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Speaker 2: It's the offensive line is It's like God's up first,

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Speaker 2: you're gonna find the pictures aren't going anywhere this year.

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Speaker 2: Let's find out what he's got. Oh, if he gets hit,

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Speaker 2: you're gonna get hit in the NFL. You're gonna bet

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Speaker 2: enough pressure. But he has you want Jacobe Brissett in

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Speaker 2: the games that are like against like the Browns. It's

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Speaker 2: like the spreads like minus two, the totals thirty five.

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Speaker 2: He's not going to turn it over. But he can't move.

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Speaker 2: And Drake May. I loved what I saw in college

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Speaker 2: with Drake May under pressure and he can scramble, he

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Speaker 2: can run. He adds another element of surprise and with

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Speaker 2: his legs to this offense, which I think is needed

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Speaker 2: behind this offensive line.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and right now, if you're the Patriots, your offensive

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Speaker 3: line is in dire streets. I mean, especially from a

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Speaker 3: pass pocking perspective. So yeah, you need May, but you

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Speaker 3: also you just got Kendrick Borne back. Jalen Polk is playing,

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Speaker 3: you know, the most snaps he's ever played, so you

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Speaker 3: might actually be in your optimal you know, receivering situation

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Speaker 3: right now if Bourne can kind of pick it up.

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Speaker 3: I think he was the number four receiver last game,

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Speaker 3: but he might bump up to the number three, So

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Speaker 3: you'd have Polk, Douglas in the slot, and Born as

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Speaker 3: the top three. You still have Henry and Hooper healthy.

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Speaker 3: So like, you got all your skill guys, and you

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Speaker 3: got the quarterback best suited to navigate your line used

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Speaker 3: to has seen no film on Drake May, you know.

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Speaker 3: So that's that's tough. And then you factor in that

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Speaker 3: Houston hasn't won by more than six points all year.

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Speaker 3: We're getting plus seven, even in Caleb Williams's second start

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Speaker 3: when he was still just a kind of a disaster

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Speaker 3: to be frank. Houston beach Chicago by six points. And

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Speaker 3: if you look at our luck rankings, Houston the luckiest

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Speaker 3: team in the National Football League New England twenty six.

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Speaker 3: That twenty five place difference, there's also a fifty six

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Speaker 3: percent gap. Both of those trigger a trend where sixty

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Speaker 3: four percent against the spread over the past five years

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Speaker 3: on a near two hundred game sample size. So this

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Speaker 3: is a luck game. Give me New England. It's disgusting,

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Speaker 3: but I love it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this would have been one online again, which is

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Speaker 2: a good sign to me at least Stroud and this

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Speaker 2: Texans team is a favorite. I mean shots just two

258
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Speaker 2: and seven against this presence the game in the league

259
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Speaker 2: is a favorite of three or more. It's the worst

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Speaker 2: mark in the league since he was drafted. This Texans team,

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Speaker 2: the staff just tends to get too conservative at times.

262
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Speaker 2: And yeah, they're just not firing on all cylinders right now. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I like doing that. I'm a believer in Drake May

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Speaker 2: and I think he's needed here to deal with the

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Speaker 2: pressure because Houston is going to get pressure. Uses legs

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Speaker 2: as an added element. And I think the Patriots keep

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Speaker 2: this within a touchdown.

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Speaker 3: And you know, it's crazy where were used to be

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Speaker 3: cover wise, maybe even record wise without Kayimi Fairbear like this, dude,

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Speaker 3: I mean like, I feel like he doesn't miss you

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Speaker 3: just line him up fifty nine. He's not augree, but

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Speaker 3: he's pretty money, so it could be worse. It could be.

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Speaker 2: Worse for my first pick in the second over all

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Speaker 2: the week six Sunday six pack, I'm going with you

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Speaker 2: guessed that, no surprise, the Tennessee Titans plus one and

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Speaker 2: a half against the Danapolis Colts. Titans have covered one

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Speaker 2: game this year. It was the game I didn't bet them,

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Speaker 2: so chose you all all you need to know, but

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Speaker 2: I did overcome. I couldn't win a bet on Tennessee

280
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Speaker 2: in college football until this past weekend, so maybe I'm due,

281
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Speaker 2: but I just think, look, this is number one. This

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Speaker 2: is a good spot for Tennessee coming off of bye,

283
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Speaker 2: which I think in the team with so many new pieces,

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Speaker 2: especially you know, even the offensive line, with a really

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Speaker 2: good offensive line coach to figure out some things there.

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Speaker 2: I think a bye came at a really good time

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Speaker 2: for this Tennessee team. Also, you know, just got to

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Speaker 2: win Indianapolis second straight road game. And more importantly, this

289
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Speaker 2: is a team that's I mean they've been Their defense

290
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Speaker 2: has been on the field as much as any team

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Speaker 2: over the past twenty five years to this point in

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Speaker 2: the season, and they're dealing with a number of injuries.

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Speaker 2: Still they're not at full strength, and this is still

294
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Speaker 2: a bad defense. A very static defense, a simple defense,

295
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Speaker 2: two weeks to prepare for it. They're not gonna bring

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Speaker 2: a ton of pressure. They're not going to play man.

297
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Speaker 2: And by the way, will Levis, if he does indeed

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Speaker 2: get the start here, has been better against zone than man.

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Speaker 2: If it's Mason Rudolph, I probably like that a little

300
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Speaker 2: better due to the less of a chance of there

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Speaker 2: being a catastrophic mistake or two or three. But I

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Speaker 2: also think if will Levis is healthy enough to go,

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Speaker 2: and he does go and he makes a catastrophic mistake,

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Speaker 2: now I think cal an quickly, it's all right, we're

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Speaker 2: going to Rudolph. So I do like that. I didn't

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Speaker 2: think that that was a possibility in the past, but

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Speaker 2: after that Miami game and what Rudolph showed, I think

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Speaker 2: that is a possibility here. Tennessee also should be healthier

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Speaker 2: coming out of the buy a woozy. I did hit ir,

310
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Speaker 2: which is a bit of a concern, But I think

311
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Speaker 2: Simmons is going to come back along that defensive line.

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Speaker 2: Tennessee has the significantly better defensive line. Colt who's playing

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Speaker 2: running back, I don't know. I mean Tray Shermand in

314
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Speaker 2: practice today, Jonson Daylord in practice today, it's going to

315
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Speaker 2: be just Goodson, and I think that Anthony Richardson is

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Speaker 2: going to get the start, which is what I want here.

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Speaker 2: I think the cults are significantly better with Joe Flacco

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Speaker 2: at quarterback. Richards in practice today, he is their guy,

319
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Speaker 2: and everyone talks about Will Levis and his disasters start

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Speaker 2: to the year rightfully. So now I know people are

321
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Speaker 2: talking about Anthony Richardson, and a lot of it's because

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Speaker 2: Joe Flacco has been good and came into a couple

323
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Speaker 2: of games. But I mean, you look at EPA plus

324
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Speaker 2: completion percentage over expectation. The only two guys in the

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Speaker 2: league that are in the negative or Bryce Young and

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Speaker 2: Anthony Richardson. Richardson's thirty second, Bryce Young's thirty third. Will

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Speaker 2: Levis is sitting at twenty completion percentage over expectation. Will

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Speaker 2: Levis five and a half percent above expectation. You know,

329
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Speaker 2: with eight and a half, you know it's a decent

330
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Speaker 2: air yard average. Anthony Richardson is right there with Bryce Young,

331
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Speaker 2: You're negative ten percent. He's not been accurate, he's not

332
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Speaker 2: been good. I just this Tennessee defense I think should

333
00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:18,800
Speaker 2: give him problems. And I just don't trust him to

334
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Speaker 2: make the throws and the rushing attack should be neutered

335
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Speaker 2: with some injuries. I like Tennessee to get this win.

336
00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:26,679
Speaker 2: I think with the current look at all of the

337
00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:30,359
Speaker 2: injuries and virgins, it's made some catastrophic mistakes too with

338
00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:34,560
Speaker 2: his interceptions, just some awful throws. So if you look

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Speaker 2: at the current construction of these two rosters, with all

340
00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:40,520
Speaker 2: the injuries the Colts are dealing with, I think the

341
00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:42,879
Speaker 2: Titans have the better team. And you look at the quarterbacks,

342
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:46,520
Speaker 2: it's like two guys who are struggling, who make catastrophic mistakes,

343
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Speaker 2: and then you throw in the spot. With Tennessee coming

344
00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:51,800
Speaker 2: off of a bye, I like the Titans to get

345
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Speaker 2: it done at all.

346
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Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean this line essentially says the Colts are

347
00:19:56,680 --> 00:20:00,600
Speaker 3: three plus points better than the Titans on the neutral field,

348
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:04,600
Speaker 3: which not not in this state. And even even if

349
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Speaker 3: it's Joe Flacco, I think you might disagree. But I

350
00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:11,120
Speaker 3: think the Jacksonville defense is a special kind of bad.

351
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:12,919
Speaker 3: So I think even Flacco is coming in here a

352
00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:17,439
Speaker 3: little overrated because I mean that Jacksonville defense is just

353
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 3: no resistance. So uh, either way, Yeah, I mean Flacco

354
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:23,880
Speaker 3: was kind of a turnover machine last year, even when

355
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:25,919
Speaker 3: he was thrown for you know, three hundred plus with

356
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:29,960
Speaker 3: the Browns all day. So uh yeah, I uh, this

357
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:32,360
Speaker 3: would have been one of mine, but I had I knew,

358
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:34,680
Speaker 3: I knew I was gonna sacrifice somewhere, but I had

359
00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:36,280
Speaker 3: to go get I how to grab the Patriots. So

360
00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 3: I'll let you roll with the uh, let you roll

361
00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:40,600
Speaker 3: with the Titans here. But I like this one too

362
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:46,200
Speaker 3: for my second pick, the third overall of the week.

363
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:50,720
Speaker 3: Six Sunday six pack told you we're getting disgusting and

364
00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:54,679
Speaker 3: we're staying disgusting. New Orleans plus three and a half

365
00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:59,959
Speaker 3: at home against the Bucks with a TBD quarterback. It's

366
00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,600
Speaker 3: either gonna be Hayter or Spencer Rattler. I kind of

367
00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:05,680
Speaker 3: hope it's Rattler, to be honest, but yeah, I knew

368
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Speaker 3: it was.

369
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Speaker 2: Rather this is gonna be one of my picks I did.

370
00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 2: I did bet this as well, so I agree.

371
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:15,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, and just let's do some math this line. Sunday

372
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:19,160
Speaker 3: afternoon before uh New Orleans you know played the Chiefs

373
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:23,679
Speaker 3: and all that. Ah, minus two and a half for

374
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 3: the Saints, so the Bucks had already played. They played

375
00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 3: on Thursday. Saints hadn't played yet. This line was minus

376
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:32,160
Speaker 3: two and a half. Derek Carr is not worth six

377
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 3: points to the spread. I'm sorry. I mean he had

378
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 3: a couple of good games early on, but we saw,

379
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,359
Speaker 3: you know, Derek Carr giventh and Derek Carr take it away,

380
00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 3: and a lot of the same issues that are that

381
00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:48,840
Speaker 3: were plaguing the Saints offense last year under Carmichael with

382
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:52,520
Speaker 3: Derek Carr are starting to rear their heads again. It's

383
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:56,160
Speaker 3: like it's either a short pass or a low percentage

384
00:21:56,200 --> 00:22:00,040
Speaker 3: deep shot, and it's not allowed in between. And so

385
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:03,439
Speaker 3: I just can't get to Derek Carr being worse, you know,

386
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 3: more than about a field goal, maybe a little more

387
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 3: than that to the spread, regardless of whether it's hainer

388
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:12,919
Speaker 3: or rattler. I think either way, you're getting a little

389
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,560
Speaker 3: more mobility than car because he gives you pretty much none.

390
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 3: And you still have this New Orleans team at home,

391
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 3: number four and overall DVOA. So this team was pretty

392
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 3: good team, even if you're bringing in a bad quarterback

393
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:32,359
Speaker 3: in its first start. Tampa Bay's fifteenth New Orleans pass

394
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:37,119
Speaker 3: defense should be able to disrupt Mayfield just one touchdown

395
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:40,119
Speaker 3: pass all out on a year, seven picks their fifth

396
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:44,160
Speaker 3: and adjusted net yards per attempt allowed seventh in pressure

397
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:47,879
Speaker 3: rate Baker eight point one yards in attempt clean five

398
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,640
Speaker 3: and a half under pressure, and New Orleans is number

399
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 3: one in DVOA against number one receivers. You know, Lattimore

400
00:22:55,119 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 3: always gives Evans sits right exactly yeah or or I

401
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:05,239
Speaker 3: mean ejections. So this New Orleans team is still going

402
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:07,640
Speaker 3: to compete in this spot and be a tough out

403
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:11,200
Speaker 3: regardless of what's going on with their offense. And Tampa Bay,

404
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:17,160
Speaker 3: they only played one other top ten defense, and they

405
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 3: played four defenses that were ranked between fifteenth to twenty

406
00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,359
Speaker 3: seven the Washington, Detroit, Philly in Atlanta. Three of those

407
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 3: four were outside of the top twenty. Against those defenses,

408
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay averaged thirty points a game and three hundred

409
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 3: and forty seven yards fine good against the only top

410
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 3: ten defense they saw, which was Denver seven points, two

411
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 3: hundred and twenty three yards. They were just completely stinied.

412
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:38,959
Speaker 3: So I wouldn't just bank on Tampa Bay lighting up

413
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:43,439
Speaker 3: the scoreboard here. And for New Orleans, I mean you

414
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 3: saw with Tampa I mean Tampa Bay's defense just when

415
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 3: you thought they might be coming together. I mean they

416
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 3: go and give up over five hundred path in yards

417
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 3: to Kirk Cousins and Darryl Hodge, guy who gets like

418
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 3: two snaps a game would get a walk off. So

419
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,920
Speaker 3: this defense still has some holes in the past game.

420
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 3: I think this could go really well for the Warrans,

421
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:06,200
Speaker 3: especially when you're getting over a field goal here. Baker

422
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,919
Speaker 3: Mayfield has a favorite just fifteen and twenty seven in

423
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,680
Speaker 3: his career against the spread thirty six percent, and Todd

424
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,160
Speaker 3: Bowles is the favorite of a field goal or more

425
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 3: just eight and fifteen thirty five percent against the spread

426
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 3: for his career. So give me the Saints at home

427
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 3: plus three and a half.

428
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, this probably would have been one of my picks.

429
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 2: Specify a k new Rattler's playing. I think he gives

430
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:31,399
Speaker 2: a more upside. I do think you could argue cars

431
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 2: maybe worth five to six points of spread if he

432
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 2: had a healthy offensive line. But the offensive line is

433
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:37,679
Speaker 2: in shambles. I mean, if you look, the pressure rate

434
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 2: allowed has fallen off a cliff over the past coal

435
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 2: weeks because of all the injuries. So what do you

436
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 2: need in there? You need someone with more mobility. We'll

437
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 2: see if tamp Bay gets a little healthier on defense

438
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:49,159
Speaker 2: with Windfield and Cancy coming back, but they still are

439
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,439
Speaker 2: vulnerable against the run. That's what New Orleans wants to do.

440
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 2: They can lean into that. Here on the surface, it's

441
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 2: a bad spot, just like look give a new quarterback.

442
00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 2: It's a short week, Tampa Bay off extended ras so,

443
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:04,879
Speaker 2: and you're dealing with offensive line injuries. But yeah, I agree,

444
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:06,959
Speaker 2: I can't get to this much of an adjustment, especially

445
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,440
Speaker 2: when you consider going through three too much of an adjustment.

446
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,640
Speaker 2: I've still liked the Saints defense. A ton Day can

447
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 2: match up with the Bucks receivers, which is question one

448
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 2: you have to ask when bandicapping a Bucks game. So yeah,

449
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 2: I like the saintsier over a field goal at home.

450
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:31,160
Speaker 2: All right. For my second pick and the fourth overall

451
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:34,879
Speaker 2: of the week six Sunday six back, I'm going with

452
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,680
Speaker 2: the Jacksonville Jaguars plus two and a half against the

453
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 2: Chicago Bears. I'm waiting for a three here. We'll see

454
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 2: if it pops. I imagine the entire worlds you be

455
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 2: betting the Bears, But I personally can't get to this number.

456
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 2: I think right now as it stands, the two most

457
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 2: overrated teams in the league, just based on record and

458
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 2: maybe perception. Are the Bucks because of that line, Lions

459
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:06,159
Speaker 2: Fluke and the Eagles injury game, and the Bears. The

460
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 2: Bears are three and two, they could easily be one

461
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 2: in four. They I was wrong on the Panthers last week,

462
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:15,399
Speaker 2: but I mean, if you look at that game, Panthers

463
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 2: lose more defensive guys, they lose two offensive linemen. There

464
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:23,399
Speaker 2: goes the one Panthers strength. I would have liked the

465
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 2: Panthers this week again need seven though, for what it's

466
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 2: worth there because he had one really really good aspect

467
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 2: of their team, their offensive line, two starters done last

468
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 2: week in that Bears game, all right, so that it

469
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:43,160
Speaker 2: was a good performance. How about the week before. I mean,

470
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:46,680
Speaker 2: this is a team that got extremely lucky against the Rams.

471
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 2: I was on them. They were laying three at home

472
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 2: against the Rams, the Rams practice squad with one of

473
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 2: the worst defenses in the league, no receivers, back up,

474
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:58,880
Speaker 2: offensive line. Then they get out played in that game.

475
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 2: Yes they win, but you know a week before you

476
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 2: play the Colts, you lose that game one of the

477
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:08,679
Speaker 2: worst defenses in the league. So people are saying that

478
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:13,199
Speaker 2: Caleb Williams is improving, which he is a bit and

479
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 2: this run game has got going. They've played the Rams, Colts,

480
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 2: and Panthers over the past three weeks. It does not

481
00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:27,199
Speaker 2: get any easier than that from and and Look, the

482
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 2: Panthers had offensive line injuries and wide receiver injuries. The

483
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,880
Speaker 2: Rams had offensive line and wide receiver injuries. The Colts

484
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 2: had all kinds of injuries. On defense. You know, we're

485
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 2: playing Anthony Richardson. I think this defense is a bit

486
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 2: overrated too. They're susceptible to the explosive play, which Jacksonville

487
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,119
Speaker 2: can certainly hit. But if you just look at these

488
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,919
Speaker 2: at the recent lines of Chicago minus three at home

489
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 2: against the Rems, get out played at home. I think

490
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:57,440
Speaker 2: they were almost outgained by almost the yard per play.

491
00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 2: They were just minus four four point favorites at home

492
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:05,479
Speaker 2: against Carolina, now two and a half point favorites on

493
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 2: a neutral field over Jacksonville. So we're saying Jacksonville is

494
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 2: equivalent to a beat up Carolina team is worse than

495
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:20,479
Speaker 2: the Rams practice squad. No, I don't think so. So

496
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:24,040
Speaker 2: I think look and the jack should get Evan Ingram back.

497
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 2: It's a huge element of the passing attack that's been missing. Meanwhile,

498
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 2: the Bears will be missing Brisker on the back end

499
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 2: and just not fully sold on this Bear staff or

500
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 2: this offense or Caleb Williams. Yet, he is improving and

501
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 2: I expect him to be a solid starting quarterback in

502
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 2: the NFL, but still too inaccurate. He has struggled more

503
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 2: versus man coverage, which is going to see a lot

504
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:49,800
Speaker 2: of here. JAG's defense isn't great, but they should be

505
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 2: able to get pressure here. So I mean, this is

506
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 2: a team that easily could be three and two. The

507
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:55,640
Speaker 2: Bears could easily be one in four, two and three,

508
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 2: and then this line is a coin flip, which is

509
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:00,160
Speaker 2: where I think it is. I do like that the

510
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 2: Bears went overseas early in the week to adjust their

511
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 2: body clocks. I think that is the smart move. But

512
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 2: the Jags do have a ton more experience in these spots.

513
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 2: The staff has no experience doing this, so you know

514
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:19,440
Speaker 2: this is routine for the Jags at this point. So yeah,

515
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 2: I'm gonna wait to see if I can get a three.

516
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 2: Doesn't matter for this contest. I think that this is

517
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 2: basically a coin flip game. I'll take the Jags plus

518
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 2: two and.

519
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 3: A half yeah, I don't know feels great about this one.

520
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 3: I mean, what I'm not confident in is really this

521
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 3: this Jag offense against this Bear defense Indianapolis Colts defense.

522
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 3: I mean, they were just so decimated and it was

523
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 3: just a perfect spot for Trevor Lawrence and he turned

524
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 3: it over early. But you know, rebounding, I mean, you

525
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 3: had some a bunch of explosive plays. I don't think

526
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 3: as much of that is going to be there as

527
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 3: consistently against the Bears. I think the defense is wig

528
00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 3: like they They've allowed under twenty and four and twenty

529
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 3: one or fewer in eleven straight dating back to last season,

530
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:06,240
Speaker 3: So I do think the Bears can kind of make

531
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 3: it muck it up a little bit. I do think

532
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 3: Caleb Williams and the Bears offense has been kind of

533
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 3: getting some great matchups, but I would really like, if I'm.

534
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:16,800
Speaker 2: Doing defense, he's been getting good matchups. I mean, I

535
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 2: mean they have, but I think this is another easiest

536
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 2: schedule in the league.

537
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 3: So I think it's another good one for my third

538
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 3: and final pick, the fifth overall of the week, number

539
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 3: six Sunday six Pack Tojio. It would be ugly are

540
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:37,480
Speaker 3: going Denver plus three at home against the Chargers, And

541
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,800
Speaker 3: this is a number I just cannot get to. Cause, yes,

542
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 3: the Chargers are coming off a bye, so you give them,

543
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 3: give them a boost for that, but this is still

544
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 3: saying the Chargers are four and a half points better

545
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 3: than Denver, maybe five on a neutral field, depending on

546
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 3: how much you value Denver's home field. I just can't

547
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 3: get there. You know, even with the Chargers getting healthier, Yes,

548
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 3: you know, Herbert, Slater, Joe all should be healthier and

549
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 3: back in the lineup, but are they one hundred percent healthy?

550
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 3: Who knows? And then you look at these teams and

551
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 3: they're kind of very similar. They're very good defenses with

552
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 3: offenses that really haven't done anything. So you're really counting

553
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 3: on the Chargers to.

554
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 2: Just be.

555
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 3: Like over almost a field though and a half better

556
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 3: than they've been all year. Because this Bronco team is

557
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:38,719
Speaker 3: sixteenth in DVA twenty fifth on offense. The Chargers are

558
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:41,960
Speaker 3: nineteenth and DVOA twenty fourth on offense, so they've they've

559
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 3: both been bad. But we're giving the Chargers a bump

560
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 3: because we assume that they'll be better with a healthier

561
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 3: Herbert and their two tackles backs. But I just don't

562
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 3: know how much better. Denver is number two in pressure rate,

563
00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 3: And when you look at these two defenses, they've both

564
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 3: been top five, but Denver is number two in pressure.

565
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 3: The Chargers are twenty fourth in pressure like the Chargers

566
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 3: are also around the second highest completion rate. And then

567
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:12,960
Speaker 3: you look at like common opponent. So justin Herbert against

568
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 3: the Raiders only five and a half yards per attempt,

569
00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 3: like even bo Nicks was seven point four. Herbert six

570
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 3: point five against Carolina, not a common opponent, but six

571
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:26,239
Speaker 3: point five against Carolina. Every other quarterback or team they

572
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 3: face average seven point four. It's just I just don't

573
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 3: really have enough confidence in this Charger team to bump

574
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:35,160
Speaker 3: them up, you know, four or five points from what

575
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 3: they've been playing like. They they want to run the ball,

576
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 3: but they've been one of the worst rush offenses in

577
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 3: the league. They're early down success rate running the ball

578
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 3: of thirty point two percent is thirtieth Denver. For all

579
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:51,600
Speaker 3: the struggles they've had running the ball with Javonte Williams

580
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 3: and mcgloughlin this year, they're eighth in early down rush

581
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 3: success rate. So I just can't get to this number

582
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 3: especially with Denver being at home, it's gonna be a

583
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 3: defensive game. Bo Nicks might average two point two yards

584
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 3: per attempt, but he's not taking many sacks anymore, he's

585
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 3: not committing many turnovers. And I just can't get to this.

586
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 3: I can't get to the Chargers being you know, four

587
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 3: and a half five points better on a neutral field.

588
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 3: Sean Payton fifty two thirty five and two sixty percent

589
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:25,840
Speaker 3: against the spread as a dog three in one this season,

590
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 3: isn't I mean he dragged that Russell Wilson ghost of

591
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 3: a team with the seventy point sol out defense last

592
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 3: year to eight wins. So there's a chance this Bronco

593
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 3: team is just mid to above average and we just

594
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 3: don't know yet. This Charger team. I like the defense,

595
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 3: but I can't get to this number. So give me

596
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 3: the Broncos plus three.

597
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind taking the home dog catching if

598
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 2: you'll go here with this slow of a total and

599
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:54,479
Speaker 2: the injury uncertainty could only work in your favor. I

600
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 2: would like to see just I would like to get

601
00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 2: more clarity on who's playing for the Charger, especially on

602
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 2: that offensive line. You argue they'd probably beat the Chiefs.

603
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 2: If they're at full strength, I think they beat the

604
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 2: Steelers if Herbert doesn't get hurt, their whole offensive line

605
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:10,799
Speaker 2: doesn't go down. They've also had defensive injuries, so this

606
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 2: team might be a bit better that I'm giving them

607
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 2: credit for. But I need to see more, and I

608
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:18,239
Speaker 2: need to see how healthy they will be as of

609
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 2: right now. It's a pass for me. But at three,

610
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,120
Speaker 2: with this low of a total and the injury uncertainty

611
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 2: with the Chargers, I think it's it's Denver or nothing.

612
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:28,319
Speaker 2: So I think you're on the right side there. For

613
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 2: my third pick and the sixth and final pick of

614
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:37,800
Speaker 2: the week six Sunday six pack, I'm going with the

615
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:41,440
Speaker 2: Dallas Cowboys. I think you owe me a hook. There's

616
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 2: a three and a half minus one twenty five out there,

617
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 2: you got it? Yeah, I would buy up to minus

618
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,279
Speaker 2: one twenty five number one. I just can't get to

619
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,600
Speaker 2: this number, especially if I'm getting over a field goal,

620
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 2: even at the pay a bit for it. Willing to

621
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 2: do that here. The Cowboys defense is still a mess.

622
00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 2: The injuries are still a thing along the defensive line.

623
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:04,320
Speaker 2: Is Detroit going to have success running the ball here? Yes,

624
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,880
Speaker 2: But I just can't get to this number. The Detroit

625
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 2: defense is still really bad, especially in the secondary. I

626
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 2: don't expect Dallas to have a ton of success running

627
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:21,400
Speaker 2: the ball. That's Detroit's defensive strength. But they did change

628
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:26,360
Speaker 2: up last week some of their run blocking schemes, which

629
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:30,759
Speaker 2: I think were more conducive to what this offensive line

630
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:34,000
Speaker 2: and backfield is. So maybe they have a bit more

631
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:36,440
Speaker 2: success than expected, just like they did last week against

632
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:39,440
Speaker 2: the Steelers. Granted, the Steelers had a number of guys

633
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 2: go down along that defensive line which didn't help and

634
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:45,480
Speaker 2: at linebacker, but the whole operation looked better. But this

635
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 2: is all about just Dak dropping back against this bad

636
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 2: and still bad Detroit secondary. And what does Detroit want

637
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 2: to do. They want to play man. Dak carves up man.

638
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:02,720
Speaker 2: So I think Dallas can match them here score for score,

639
00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:07,400
Speaker 2: and it's they also have a special teams advantage here,

640
00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 2: which when you're catching over three at home isn't insignificant,

641
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:15,920
Speaker 2: especially in that stadium you're gonna be. You start at

642
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 2: the thirty yard line, what do you gotta get to

643
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:22,400
Speaker 2: the fifty? And then you score twenty yard drives? You

644
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:27,400
Speaker 2: score with Aubrey at home. I mean that's insane. At

645
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:29,479
Speaker 2: some point he's gonna hit a seventy arder. I think

646
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 2: at home, you get to get to the the forty

647
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 2: eight yard line, you don't have the cross midfield, and

648
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 2: you can score. So yeah, I just can't get to

649
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 2: this number. I get the lines that are gonna have

650
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:45,880
Speaker 2: success running the ball, but I'll take the better quarterback here.

651
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:48,880
Speaker 2: I get Golf had his perfect game, but it was

652
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:52,279
Speaker 2: against an exhausted Seattle defense that was missing a ton

653
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 2: of starters all over. Golf still hasn't looked great this year.

654
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 2: So give me Dax a home dog to carve up

655
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 2: his defense and keep it close in Ah, what should

656
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:05,880
Speaker 2: be a just back and forth affair.

657
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:08,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I make it inside of three as well. I

658
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 3: don't usually bet against the Lions just off principle, just

659
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:14,360
Speaker 3: because they have some ridiculous again it's a spread record,

660
00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 3: but I do think they are I think it's the

661
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:20,399
Speaker 3: Cowboys are the side. Like I make this like one

662
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 3: and a half or so. You know, it's one point

663
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 3: seven eight.

664
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:30,840
Speaker 2: So yeah, even accounting for the injuries the bye week,

665
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 2: could never get the three.

666
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, this should be a competitive It should be a

667
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:38,640
Speaker 3: competitive game, and didn't. Dallas win that last one with

668
00:37:38,680 --> 00:37:40,920
Speaker 3: some help from the refs in the I think they

669
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:42,759
Speaker 3: matched up last year. It was like a twenty to

670
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 3: nineteen game because.

671
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 2: There the I'm sure Campbell will have something cooked up

672
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:51,760
Speaker 2: for this with uh now they have the six linemen

673
00:37:51,800 --> 00:37:52,719
Speaker 2: and who's eligible?

674
00:37:54,080 --> 00:38:00,120
Speaker 3: All right, So we got some the size DAK. You

675
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:04,400
Speaker 3: got some ugly quarterbacks. You got Will Levis Slash maybe

676
00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:07,440
Speaker 3: Mason Rudolph, Trevor Lawrence, who I feel like fits into

677
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 3: that ugly quarterback category this year, and then Dak. And

678
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 3: then I got Drake May Hayner or Rattler and Bonix.

679
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 3: So that is peak peak disgustingess outside of Dak.

680
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 2: But Tennessee and you almost for full transpancy, you almost had.

681
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:32,919
Speaker 2: You almost went with the Browns. I almost did, man,

682
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:34,839
Speaker 2: But I will talk about that game. Yeah, we'll talk

683
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:35,319
Speaker 2: about that game.

684
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 3: And we'll talk about the Panthers too, because both of

685
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 3: those were on my list but thought better of it.

686
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 3: So just to recap, Stuck has Tennessee plus one and

687
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:45,879
Speaker 3: a half, Jacksonville plus two and a half, Dallas plus

688
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:47,799
Speaker 3: three and a half. I have New England plus seven,

689
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:51,240
Speaker 3: New Orleans plus three and a half, Denver plus three

690
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 3: that's gonna do it for our week six Sunday six Pack.

691
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 3: Now it's time for our Coaches pep Talk.

692
00:38:57,560 --> 00:38:59,480
Speaker 2: Every time we get ready to play, I just want

693
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 2: to throw up. I'm sick. I'm watching you guys play.

694
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:04,239
Speaker 3: Just how bad can it get?

695
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:04,640
Speaker 1: All?

696
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 3: Right? This week's Coaches Pep Talk is our producer Matt

697
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:11,759
Speaker 3: Mitchell's favorite annual pep talk. It comes to us from

698
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:17,360
Speaker 3: Al Pacino in the nineteen ninety two film Glenngary Glenn

699
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 3: Ross and got to dedicate it to the Tennessee Titans.

700
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 3: We have not gotten a win from the Titans on

701
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:27,760
Speaker 3: this podcast this year.

702
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 2: You stupid fucking Now I'm talking to you. Shit. You

703
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 2: just cost me six thousand dollars. What are you gonna

704
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 2: do about it? What are you gonna do about it? Asshole?

705
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:41,759
Speaker 2: Where did you learn yet?

706
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:42,200
Speaker 3: Trade?

707
00:39:42,239 --> 00:39:46,560
Speaker 2: You idiot? What you're hired for is to help us,

708
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:49,720
Speaker 2: to help men who are going out there to try

709
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 2: to earn a living. Does that seem clear to you?

710
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:57,279
Speaker 2: To help us, not to fuck us up.

711
00:39:58,000 --> 00:39:59,840
Speaker 3: Best of the lot to the Titans this week is

712
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:04,480
Speaker 3: they need it? We need it? Titans, Mom come through

713
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 3: for us one time, one time favorite total i'ment first

714
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:14,160
Speaker 3: for our sides, So kick us off for your favorite

715
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 3: total of week six.

716
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 2: Well, I'll keep it simply. I'm gonna go with the

717
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 2: Packers Cardinals over. I know this is a little bit

718
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 2: of a higher total the forty seven and a half

719
00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:31,760
Speaker 2: yeah last week. I mean, I think this is similar

720
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 2: to the Bengals Ravens game last week, which I said

721
00:40:37,560 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 2: was gonna be thirty one twenty eight someone ended up

722
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:44,720
Speaker 2: being forty one thirty eight someone. I still can't believe

723
00:40:45,160 --> 00:40:47,920
Speaker 2: Zach Taylor. And this play calls uh just running it

724
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,040
Speaker 2: three times and you were throwing all over the Ravens.

725
00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 2: But and then you have a rookie punter as this

726
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:56,840
Speaker 2: holder and you botch that. But I think that this

727
00:40:57,400 --> 00:41:01,839
Speaker 2: I'll keep this anals simple. Both teams hit a ton

728
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:06,239
Speaker 2: of explosives on the ground and through the air, and

729
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:10,759
Speaker 2: both defenses allow a ton of explosives. And that's really

730
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:15,280
Speaker 2: what I'm looking for with it over in today's NFL,

731
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 2: where you know, you just have these long drives that

732
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:25,640
Speaker 2: are just you know, little by little down the field

733
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:27,759
Speaker 2: and then you get stopped in the red zone and

734
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 2: it just kills any overs explosive plays is what I'm

735
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:34,759
Speaker 2: looking for. And I think we get a ton in

736
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 2: this game. So give me the Cardinals Packers over.

737
00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's probably the best way to approach this game

738
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:46,719
Speaker 3: because these teams are so high variants. I mean, Jordan

739
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:49,080
Speaker 3: Love just with the completion rate alone, you know, it

740
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 3: could go any which way. And then this Cardinal team,

741
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 3: you never know what you're gonna get out of that

742
00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:59,399
Speaker 3: offense or defense really, but especially that offense. So yeah,

743
00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:00,919
Speaker 3: it's hard to a side for this one.

744
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:04,800
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean makes the close to fair. So

745
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:06,840
Speaker 2: where do you go?

746
00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:11,360
Speaker 3: Jacksonville Chicago under forty five the total cupt climbing, I

747
00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:13,880
Speaker 3: think this should be like a forty three. Uh So,

748
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:19,160
Speaker 3: you know, Chicago's still number seven in defensive DVOA. I

749
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:22,280
Speaker 3: still think that they're going to give Jacksonville some problems

750
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:26,719
Speaker 3: through the air. Jacksonville's dumb is dead last, but a

751
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:29,319
Speaker 3: lot of it's passing and their number eleven against the run,

752
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:32,200
Speaker 3: well you talked about it earlier. Chicago's offense kind of

753
00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:35,560
Speaker 3: got going, you know, clicking on all cylinders so to speak.

754
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:38,279
Speaker 3: When they faced you know, teams that they could kind

755
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:40,759
Speaker 3: of compliment the pass game with the run game. You

756
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:43,879
Speaker 3: had the rams which were twenty ninth against the run

757
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:47,920
Speaker 3: and Carolina is twenty six, So I think this week

758
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:51,239
Speaker 3: Chicago's going to be a little more one dimensional. Jacksonville

759
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:54,000
Speaker 3: also sounds like they're expecting to get Tyson Campbell back,

760
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 3: who's their number one corner and would be a helpful

761
00:42:56,880 --> 00:43:00,240
Speaker 3: addition to that that secondary, because the secondary was bad

762
00:43:00,800 --> 00:43:04,640
Speaker 3: is bad, and as you mentioned, you know man coverage,

763
00:43:05,160 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 3: Caleb has struggled against that. So I just think it's

764
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 3: gonna be a little more of a sloppier offensive game

765
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:13,879
Speaker 3: for Chicago. I don't think there's this juggernaut. I don't

766
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:17,480
Speaker 3: think they're completely out of the woods yet. And for Jacksonville,

767
00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 3: I just don't think you're gonna see the same success

768
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 3: that you did this past week against this Polt's defense

769
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 3: that was just decimated and kind of tailor made for

770
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 3: Jacksonville and Trevor Lawrence to have success. They also got

771
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:33,680
Speaker 3: just a ridiculous amount of tanks, big tank bigsby explosives,

772
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 3: which I do think he's gonna get more work. Looks

773
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:38,479
Speaker 3: like Etn's a little bit banged up, but you can't

774
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:41,800
Speaker 3: count on those even if the Bears are pretty shaky

775
00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:44,040
Speaker 3: run defense. To be honest, but I think that's gonna

776
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:47,680
Speaker 3: kind of cause Jacksonville maybe run a little more, which

777
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:50,200
Speaker 3: I'm fine with in the scheme of things. So I

778
00:43:50,520 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 3: just think this is these two offenses from what we've

779
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 3: seen thus far this year, with Trevor Lawrence kind of

780
00:43:58,239 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 3: you know, being just super mid to bad and Caleb

781
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:06,120
Speaker 3: Williams just still going through his rookie lumps. I don't

782
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 3: think there should be a mid forties. I think there

783
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:11,600
Speaker 3: should be a low forties. And this is also a

784
00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 3: luck under minus five in terms of our luck unders,

785
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 3: which triggers you know, a luck total, and those have

786
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 3: hit over sixty percent. So I just just a game

787
00:44:23,560 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 3: that I think kind of got too high. With some

788
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 3: of the news, I guess the brisker news and some

789
00:44:28,040 --> 00:44:31,600
Speaker 3: of the ingram news, it started climbing, but I expect

790
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 3: a lower scorer. And as I mentioned, Chicago hasn't given

791
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 3: up over twenty one points in eleven straight dating back

792
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:41,880
Speaker 3: to last season, so I think it's going to be

793
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:46,040
Speaker 3: an ugly one, whether Jacksonville wins or not. All right,

794
00:44:46,160 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 3: so Green Bay Arizona over forty seven a half, Chicago

795
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:53,280
Speaker 3: Jacksonville under forty five. Now it's time for our favorite

796
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:54,000
Speaker 3: teaser of the week.

797
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

798
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 3: Don't tease big.

799
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:10,240
Speaker 2: Stuck.

800
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 3: You hit one last week, so that was going on,

801
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 3: You're right, where are you going this week?

802
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:19,319
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with the Jags, who already mentioned you know,

803
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 2: I also anticipated me that to be I would lean

804
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:26,439
Speaker 2: the under there. But total at forty five teasing Ruth

805
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:30,320
Speaker 2: three and seven and uh I'll just keep it really simple.

806
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:33,280
Speaker 2: I don't know who's playing quarterback for the Raiders this week.

807
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:36,640
Speaker 2: Go with the quarterback official or the Steelers. Is there

808
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:40,279
Speaker 2: a chance for us plays? But I don't know. But

809
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:45,160
Speaker 2: the the Steelers have defensive injuries now, which are.

810
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:50,680
Speaker 3: Herbig because Herbert hurts because he was getting perfect hurt.

811
00:45:50,760 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, he gets pressured then once that really hurt against

812
00:45:53,560 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 2: the Steelers and le Al went out and uh so,

813
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:00,920
Speaker 2: and I don't think that their secondary is great and

814
00:46:01,000 --> 00:46:04,399
Speaker 2: really their defense is just made with their pressure and

815
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:11,719
Speaker 2: now it's basically just what on the edge. So yeah,

816
00:46:11,760 --> 00:46:16,839
Speaker 2: I mean the total in this game is thirty six

817
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 2: and a half and you're gonna give me over a touchdown.

818
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:25,440
Speaker 2: I'll take it with the Raiders. So Raiders and Jags.

819
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:28,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean at nine, I can't I can't fault you.

820
00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:30,799
Speaker 3: I'm a little worried about the Raiders too. I mean

821
00:46:31,560 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 3: they just, you know, they were lucky to beat the

822
00:46:35,560 --> 00:46:39,160
Speaker 3: Browns and outside of it, I mean they still know Davante.

823
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:43,400
Speaker 3: Now Wilkins is out, he's gonna miss time and he

824
00:46:43,600 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 3: was he was a top ten graded d Linemans. You're

825
00:46:46,160 --> 00:46:52,040
Speaker 3: really just Crosby on defense and I guess Bowers on offense.

826
00:46:52,200 --> 00:46:54,880
Speaker 3: You know, Porter can probably the Steers are doing good,

827
00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:56,799
Speaker 3: do a good job of taking away number one. So

828
00:46:57,200 --> 00:46:58,200
Speaker 3: it's it's ugly.

829
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 2: Tight ends game. You gotta get. I think the tit

830
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:07,239
Speaker 2: Ands can have success here. But I mean, yeah, it's

831
00:47:09,040 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 2: it's uh, I mean it's it's it's a simple Mathew toal.

832
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 3: It's a tiny it's a minuscule total.

833
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:16,640
Speaker 1: Uh.

834
00:47:16,680 --> 00:47:19,359
Speaker 3: And yeah, the Steelers are kind of getting and they're

835
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 3: out of that like they only they're running back. Uh.

836
00:47:23,120 --> 00:47:26,800
Speaker 3: Looks like Patterson and Warren are gonna be out again.

837
00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:31,400
Speaker 3: So you have shamp Shampuin and Jonathan Ward behind nausea again.

838
00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:33,280
Speaker 2: And yeah, they've had offensive line injuries.

839
00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:34,879
Speaker 3: So we don't know how much Pickens is gonna play

840
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:36,280
Speaker 3: because he's getting load management.

841
00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:40,040
Speaker 2: Quote what was doing last week he went like not

842
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:45,640
Speaker 2: running routes. That was I mean, that was bizarre. I

843
00:47:45,680 --> 00:47:49,160
Speaker 2: mean some of the man that was the disappointing effort.

844
00:47:50,000 --> 00:47:52,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's he's been He's been good for a couple

845
00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:56,600
Speaker 3: of those a year too, So uh yeah, it's but

846
00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:58,440
Speaker 3: both of these teams are just kind of going through it. Say,

847
00:47:58,560 --> 00:48:01,719
Speaker 3: I can't fault you for the teasing the Raiders up

848
00:48:01,760 --> 00:48:04,480
Speaker 3: there with the low total. I'm gonna go with the

849
00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 3: Ravens down to a half point. Uh you know, I

850
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:10,279
Speaker 3: think you talked about like the could be the peak

851
00:48:10,320 --> 00:48:14,520
Speaker 3: of the Commander market last week, but they were playing

852
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:17,239
Speaker 3: the Browns and you know how that goes. But what

853
00:48:17,400 --> 00:48:19,560
Speaker 3: is Lamar? And did he have one loss versus the

854
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:24,400
Speaker 3: NFC or something like that. Yeah, so I don't trust

855
00:48:24,560 --> 00:48:29,480
Speaker 3: the Ravens to cover just I'd be their their defense

856
00:48:29,760 --> 00:48:33,959
Speaker 3: doesn't give me a ton of confidence overall, just week

857
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:36,600
Speaker 3: to week just seeing them give up points, weight and

858
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:40,400
Speaker 3: just just ridiculousness. And this this Commander offense has been efficient.

859
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:45,200
Speaker 3: But I do think Baltimore, you know better, that run game,

860
00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 3: that run defense ends up making and the home field

861
00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:50,680
Speaker 3: ends up making a difference. I think Baltimore wins this

862
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:55,879
Speaker 3: game and a'l tease the Titans up said, I like them.

863
00:48:56,239 --> 00:48:58,640
Speaker 3: They would have been one of my six pack picks.

864
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:03,080
Speaker 3: I just don't think that that there's a big difference

865
00:49:03,120 --> 00:49:06,239
Speaker 3: between the Titans and the Colts in this state. The

866
00:49:06,239 --> 00:49:09,359
Speaker 3: Colts in this state, and they're catching you know, one

867
00:49:09,400 --> 00:49:12,719
Speaker 3: and a half at home. So te's that up through

868
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:15,080
Speaker 3: the three and through the seven to plus seven and

869
00:49:15,120 --> 00:49:18,440
Speaker 3: a half. So Baltimore minus a half so essentially to

870
00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:21,600
Speaker 3: win and then Tennessee plus seven and a half.

871
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:24,279
Speaker 2: For me, yeah, my quick quick thoughts and Ravens game,

872
00:49:24,320 --> 00:49:30,120
Speaker 2: I'm I'm just under seven, so no play for me.

873
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 2: This is I mean, Daniel's been incredible. I've upgraded him

874
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:38,800
Speaker 2: and the Commanders significantly now. The competition has been great.

875
00:49:38,880 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 2: And the Browns they had a ton of injuries on

876
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:44,800
Speaker 2: defense lat during the game last week. But they also

877
00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:49,319
Speaker 2: I think they quit. I watched that game. It was bad.

878
00:49:51,719 --> 00:49:53,960
Speaker 2: I think the defense. Eventually then they get behind, they're

879
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:56,080
Speaker 2: just like, all right, this is done because we're not

880
00:49:56,080 --> 00:49:59,680
Speaker 2: going to score. But this will be a really really

881
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 2: meaningful data point for me with Daniels, because I don't

882
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:06,280
Speaker 2: think that they're gonna have a ton of success running

883
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:11,719
Speaker 2: the ball. Ravens run defense is elite and with their

884
00:50:12,440 --> 00:50:17,759
Speaker 2: you know, newfound dime packages, they're kind of built. We'll

885
00:50:17,760 --> 00:50:20,120
Speaker 2: see if Humphrey goes. He was seen in a walking boot,

886
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:25,440
Speaker 2: but they they're kind of built to stop running quarterbacks

887
00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:29,359
Speaker 2: and we saw that, you know, with Josh Allen, and

888
00:50:30,880 --> 00:50:33,080
Speaker 2: you know, I think they're they're gonna play more zone here,

889
00:50:33,600 --> 00:50:35,600
Speaker 2: which makes it a little more difficult to run and

890
00:50:35,680 --> 00:50:38,360
Speaker 2: I don't. So this is gonna come down to Daniels

891
00:50:38,600 --> 00:50:45,040
Speaker 2: and really seeing how you know, strong of a passer

892
00:50:45,280 --> 00:50:49,399
Speaker 2: he is in the pocket. You have to have, I think,

893
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:51,520
Speaker 2: to beat this Ravens defense. One of the reasons I

894
00:50:51,560 --> 00:50:53,560
Speaker 2: liked the over and the and the Bengals last week

895
00:50:53,640 --> 00:50:56,719
Speaker 2: is because you have to have just really good outside

896
00:50:56,719 --> 00:51:01,000
Speaker 2: receivers and a strong passing attack to beat the Ravens.

897
00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:02,680
Speaker 2: And we saw that with the Bengals, even though they

898
00:51:02,719 --> 00:51:06,279
Speaker 2: they didn't win the game. So we'll see how big

899
00:51:06,320 --> 00:51:08,640
Speaker 2: of a game that McLaren can have. But we'll learn

900
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:11,120
Speaker 2: a ton about Daniels here. It's not the best spot

901
00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:14,440
Speaker 2: for the Ravens. Like it's an NFC game. They're coming off.

902
00:51:14,480 --> 00:51:18,000
Speaker 2: They beat the Bills in a huge game and then

903
00:51:18,000 --> 00:51:20,279
Speaker 2: they go on the road and beat the Bengals in

904
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:22,680
Speaker 2: a huge win for the division, probably puts like the

905
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:29,040
Speaker 2: division to bed, and the game goes to overtime. So yeah,

906
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:31,960
Speaker 2: it's it's not a great spot, so I'm not rushing

907
00:51:32,040 --> 00:51:34,560
Speaker 2: to lay it, and I'm pretty close to fair here,

908
00:51:34,640 --> 00:51:38,759
Speaker 2: so i don't mind the tea's but I'll be just

909
00:51:38,800 --> 00:51:40,520
Speaker 2: sitting back and watching.

910
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:42,799
Speaker 3: You know, the Raves will probably have to beat the

911
00:51:42,800 --> 00:51:47,160
Speaker 3: Steelers and some some sometime to actually crunch that there

912
00:51:47,239 --> 00:51:49,480
Speaker 3: is The Steelers always seem to hang around. Aren't they

913
00:51:49,480 --> 00:51:50,600
Speaker 3: still winning the division now?

914
00:51:51,560 --> 00:51:54,840
Speaker 2: They both tied now, but the Steelers up with the

915
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:59,040
Speaker 2: hardest schedule in the NFL the rest of the way.

916
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:01,320
Speaker 2: But yeah, they'll they'll. I mean, the Steel's gonna win that.

917
00:52:01,320 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 2: They're gonna win nine games.

918
00:52:02,400 --> 00:52:12,440
Speaker 3: So yeah, right exactly. Let's go to our moneyline underdog parlay.

919
00:52:12,120 --> 00:52:15,439
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

920
00:52:15,960 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay.

921
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:23,040
Speaker 3: Didn't hit last week, so let's try to get it

922
00:52:23,120 --> 00:52:26,360
Speaker 3: back on the right side. Who you roll with this week?

923
00:52:26,920 --> 00:52:30,520
Speaker 2: I was gonna go with the Giants just because I

924
00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:33,680
Speaker 2: don't know where the Bengals are mentally. Some of the

925
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:36,600
Speaker 2: comments in the locker room, and how many gut wrenching

926
00:52:36,640 --> 00:52:39,400
Speaker 2: losses can you take? And you just look from a

927
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:44,399
Speaker 2: havoc perspective, Giants number one in the NFL, Bengals dead last,

928
00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:47,960
Speaker 2: like they're just their defense is not creating any negative

929
00:52:47,960 --> 00:52:54,160
Speaker 2: plays or providing any resistance. Giants playing well, and I think,

930
00:52:54,239 --> 00:52:56,480
Speaker 2: do you think they get neighbors back this week? Probably?

931
00:52:56,719 --> 00:52:58,319
Speaker 3: I would think so. I mean it would it would

932
00:52:58,360 --> 00:53:02,680
Speaker 3: be LB what a over double two weeks, seventeen days

933
00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:06,280
Speaker 3: or something like that. Yeah, it should be enough. I mean, yeah,

934
00:53:06,320 --> 00:53:09,440
Speaker 3: I mean it was a brutal concussion, but yeah, I

935
00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 3: would think seventeen days would be enough to create a protocol.

936
00:53:11,760 --> 00:53:14,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, Jones has been playing well, the Giant's been playing

937
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:17,040
Speaker 2: well the past two weeks. Because I do think Barrel

938
00:53:17,040 --> 00:53:18,960
Speaker 2: will just have a ton of success against the Giants,

939
00:53:19,719 --> 00:53:21,840
Speaker 2: and their offensive line has been good in past protection.

940
00:53:22,520 --> 00:53:25,480
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go with the Saints at home. We

941
00:53:25,480 --> 00:53:27,640
Speaker 2: already talked about that game. But I also like the

942
00:53:28,239 --> 00:53:33,120
Speaker 2: added variants with the quarterback situation, and I hope it's rattler.

943
00:53:33,200 --> 00:53:35,359
Speaker 2: So give me the Saints at home, all right?

944
00:53:35,400 --> 00:53:37,920
Speaker 3: So Saints plus one fifty five and I'm gonna go

945
00:53:38,000 --> 00:53:42,200
Speaker 3: Dallas plus one forty six, a higher scoring game, but

946
00:53:43,040 --> 00:53:46,319
Speaker 3: like we talked about this, it's hard to get to three,

947
00:53:46,520 --> 00:53:48,520
Speaker 3: it's hard to get to the spread here. So I

948
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:52,120
Speaker 3: do think there's some value in Dallas. Roll with them

949
00:53:52,120 --> 00:53:53,920
Speaker 3: on the money line because this could you know, Detroit

950
00:53:53,920 --> 00:53:56,960
Speaker 3: could blow them out. Dallas could even blow Detroit out.

951
00:53:57,000 --> 00:54:00,080
Speaker 3: It's just just a high variance game because you're with

952
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:03,480
Speaker 3: the totals up to fifty two. So I'll take Dallas

953
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:09,480
Speaker 3: plus one forty six. Parlay those two together and you

954
00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:13,399
Speaker 3: get odds a plus five twenty seven. So nice little

955
00:54:13,480 --> 00:54:17,560
Speaker 3: juicy parlay if you choose to do that. But now

956
00:54:17,560 --> 00:54:21,200
Speaker 3: it's time for best of the rest, which are the

957
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:24,280
Speaker 3: games we did not discuss in any other segment.

958
00:54:25,160 --> 00:54:26,960
Speaker 1: That's going to be a touchdown, but that may be

959
00:54:27,080 --> 00:54:28,080
Speaker 1: meaningful to some of.

960
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:30,319
Speaker 2: You, and you know what I mean.

961
00:54:30,840 --> 00:54:34,360
Speaker 3: All Right, We've got three games. First up, the Browns

962
00:54:34,800 --> 00:54:37,720
Speaker 3: at the Eagles. Eagles favored by nine, the total forty

963
00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:39,759
Speaker 3: two and a half. I thought about this one for

964
00:54:39,840 --> 00:54:42,880
Speaker 3: the Browns, you know, one of the keys for me

965
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:47,040
Speaker 3: for betting the Browns. At this point. Jack Concorine has

966
00:54:47,080 --> 00:54:49,000
Speaker 3: to be back in the line up at right tackle.

967
00:54:49,080 --> 00:54:52,680
Speaker 3: It can't be Jones. I mean he has He's just

968
00:54:52,680 --> 00:54:55,160
Speaker 3: been terrible. Everyone's talking about Deshaun Watson. If you go

969
00:54:55,239 --> 00:54:59,200
Speaker 3: back and watch that that Commander game, I mean, it

970
00:54:59,280 --> 00:55:01,440
Speaker 3: was just the right side of the line just completely

971
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:04,560
Speaker 3: getting blown up time after time after time. I didn't

972
00:55:04,600 --> 00:55:06,880
Speaker 3: even think Watson was terrible in that game. I just

973
00:55:06,920 --> 00:55:12,040
Speaker 3: thought there were like probably a dozen dropbacks where he

974
00:55:12,120 --> 00:55:15,080
Speaker 3: had no move like it was just he was the

975
00:55:15,440 --> 00:55:19,400
Speaker 3: ball got snapped and pressure was on him. So you know,

976
00:55:19,880 --> 00:55:23,000
Speaker 3: they put Conklin in the depth chart now is the

977
00:55:23,800 --> 00:55:27,040
Speaker 3: right tackle, but I mean he got kind of late

978
00:55:27,120 --> 00:55:29,600
Speaker 3: scratched or scratched late later in the week last week,

979
00:55:29,640 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 3: so I can't trust it. I also can't trust the

980
00:55:32,600 --> 00:55:35,200
Speaker 3: Browns too. You know, at this point they're playing so

981
00:55:35,280 --> 00:55:37,319
Speaker 3: much man coverage. I don't I do not want them

982
00:55:37,360 --> 00:55:40,840
Speaker 3: to play man coverage against the Eagles with Jalen Hurtz,

983
00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:43,000
Speaker 3: you know, as a running threat, and you got Brown

984
00:55:43,080 --> 00:55:45,640
Speaker 3: and Smith back. So just too many variables that I

985
00:55:45,640 --> 00:55:47,200
Speaker 3: can't trust early in the week, and I don't I

986
00:55:47,239 --> 00:55:50,240
Speaker 3: don't know fully, I really need to know the injury report,

987
00:55:50,360 --> 00:55:52,080
Speaker 3: but I mean this line is getting out of hand.

988
00:55:53,160 --> 00:55:56,440
Speaker 3: Even with Philly coming off the buy and Cleveland being terrible,

989
00:55:56,800 --> 00:56:00,319
Speaker 3: but they still have a decent defense. I just I

990
00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:01,880
Speaker 3: just need to know who's playing, and I need I

991
00:56:01,880 --> 00:56:04,759
Speaker 3: need Jones out of there at tackles. So I'm off

992
00:56:04,800 --> 00:56:08,080
Speaker 3: this probably. I just it's just too many barriers.

993
00:56:08,080 --> 00:56:10,480
Speaker 2: What about you, I mean, i'd make this over seven, So,

994
00:56:10,520 --> 00:56:12,000
Speaker 2: I mean, if you got the ten, maybe i'd think

995
00:56:12,000 --> 00:56:12,399
Speaker 2: about it.

996
00:56:12,520 --> 00:56:12,960
Speaker 1: But A J.

997
00:56:13,120 --> 00:56:16,839
Speaker 2: Brown, DeVante Smith, Lane Johnson all back. Wow. Brown said

998
00:56:16,880 --> 00:56:20,320
Speaker 2: defensive injuries too, which you're worth monitoring that they suffered

999
00:56:20,320 --> 00:56:23,840
Speaker 2: some last week. They're certainly done with injuries at linebacker

1000
00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:27,200
Speaker 2: and the secondary. Now Miles Garrett is one hundred percent.

1001
00:56:27,280 --> 00:56:30,600
Speaker 2: Third straight road game, yeah for Cleveland and Philly coming

1002
00:56:30,600 --> 00:56:33,680
Speaker 2: off of bye, and the Browns just might have quit.

1003
00:56:33,880 --> 00:56:36,279
Speaker 3: I mean yeah, they might trade people too, you like

1004
00:56:36,400 --> 00:56:38,040
Speaker 3: Cooper could be gone and now you don't you know

1005
00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:39,960
Speaker 3: what I mean. It's so it's it's just too many I.

1006
00:56:39,960 --> 00:56:43,080
Speaker 2: Can't relay this. But no thanks on the Browns.

1007
00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:45,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the Eagles are still I mean the

1008
00:56:45,600 --> 00:56:47,799
Speaker 3: whole the whole reason I even consider this because I

1009
00:56:47,840 --> 00:56:50,200
Speaker 3: still don't trust the Eagles to win by margin. But

1010
00:56:50,880 --> 00:56:53,399
Speaker 3: I mean, this is it's just just too much going

1011
00:56:53,440 --> 00:56:55,120
Speaker 3: on with the Browns, and like you said, third straight

1012
00:56:55,200 --> 00:56:57,239
Speaker 3: road game, and who knows who's on the team and

1013
00:56:57,280 --> 00:57:00,240
Speaker 3: who's playing and who gets scratched and who's quit, and.

1014
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:03,000
Speaker 2: They can't run the ball, they can't protect that the

1015
00:57:03,040 --> 00:57:05,560
Speaker 2: defense that they're not. The tackling has been so bad

1016
00:57:05,640 --> 00:57:06,600
Speaker 2: now they have injuries.

1017
00:57:07,280 --> 00:57:12,480
Speaker 3: No thanks, Atlanta at Carolina Carolina plus six at home,

1018
00:57:12,520 --> 00:57:16,400
Speaker 3: the total forty seven another one I considered. But Carolina,

1019
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:20,720
Speaker 3: they can't get pressure. They're just like Atlanta. So I

1020
00:57:20,720 --> 00:57:24,840
Speaker 3: think that's great news for Carolina's offense because, uh, you know,

1021
00:57:24,960 --> 00:57:27,400
Speaker 3: last week the Bears did get pressure. But I don't

1022
00:57:27,400 --> 00:57:29,920
Speaker 3: know how much these offensive line injuries are gonna affect them.

1023
00:57:29,920 --> 00:57:32,560
Speaker 3: Moton's been one of the better pass blocking tackles in

1024
00:57:32,600 --> 00:57:35,000
Speaker 3: the league. And then you lose your center, you lose

1025
00:57:35,040 --> 00:57:38,000
Speaker 3: them at the same time, right, and even against a

1026
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:40,800
Speaker 3: team that doesn't get pressure, that could still even because like,

1027
00:57:40,840 --> 00:57:43,360
Speaker 3: you need to keep up with Atlanta here, because Kirk

1028
00:57:43,400 --> 00:57:46,320
Speaker 3: Cousins from a clean pocket has been lights out this year.

1029
00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:49,480
Speaker 3: It's just when he's pressured things have gone awry. But

1030
00:57:49,560 --> 00:57:51,640
Speaker 3: Carolina gets no pressure, so you're gonna need to match

1031
00:57:51,680 --> 00:57:54,880
Speaker 3: Atlanta score for score here, and with these old line injuries,

1032
00:57:54,920 --> 00:57:58,240
Speaker 3: with Lagett banged up after Thieveen already went on ir

1033
00:57:58,800 --> 00:58:02,120
Speaker 3: and given your tremble like the tight end, it's just

1034
00:58:02,120 --> 00:58:07,240
Speaker 3: just everyone's dropping like flies here. I need Carolina. Yeah, yeah,

1035
00:58:07,320 --> 00:58:10,440
Speaker 3: Shack Thompson. That the linebacker. Who is the linebacker they

1036
00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:14,800
Speaker 3: put in there? Was it Wallace? Oh my goodness. I

1037
00:58:14,800 --> 00:58:18,320
Speaker 3: mean he's just giving up like play after play after play.

1038
00:58:18,360 --> 00:58:22,360
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's I can't trust Carolina to get stops.

1039
00:58:22,960 --> 00:58:25,640
Speaker 3: And I can't trust Carolina to match Atlanta's score for

1040
00:58:25,680 --> 00:58:28,320
Speaker 3: score given the offensive injuries. So even though this number

1041
00:58:28,360 --> 00:58:33,840
Speaker 3: is pretty crazy because that would make Atlanta about seven

1042
00:58:33,880 --> 00:58:36,560
Speaker 3: and a half points better than Carolina on a neutral field,

1043
00:58:37,480 --> 00:58:41,480
Speaker 3: and this is Dalton Carolina, not Bryce Carolina, it's still

1044
00:58:42,920 --> 00:58:45,240
Speaker 3: there's just too much variance. I don't trust Carolina to

1045
00:58:45,240 --> 00:58:47,120
Speaker 3: get stopped. The only team they got stops against was

1046
00:58:47,200 --> 00:58:50,919
Speaker 3: Gardner Minshi this whole year pretty much. So yeah, I'm

1047
00:58:51,160 --> 00:58:52,280
Speaker 3: passed for me. What about you?

1048
00:58:52,680 --> 00:58:55,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean iileen call Carolina on the number. I mean,

1049
00:58:55,120 --> 00:58:57,800
Speaker 2: the Bengals just were laying four and a half in

1050
00:58:57,840 --> 00:58:59,800
Speaker 2: a game that was even statistically, but the offensive line

1051
00:58:59,840 --> 00:59:04,080
Speaker 2: and the defensive injuries, they're just not they can't get

1052
00:59:04,080 --> 00:59:07,360
Speaker 2: any pressure. They can't like Atlanta will get its run

1053
00:59:07,400 --> 00:59:10,080
Speaker 2: game going, Kirk won't be any pressure here. And the

1054
00:59:10,080 --> 00:59:12,560
Speaker 2: biggest strength of this Carolina team is its offensive line.

1055
00:59:12,840 --> 00:59:14,640
Speaker 2: And now you lose two starters and you're injury and

1056
00:59:14,680 --> 00:59:17,160
Speaker 2: your wide receivers are banged up. I mean, Feld's still out,

1057
00:59:17,240 --> 00:59:20,280
Speaker 2: So maybe if it gets the seven, I'll play Carolina.

1058
00:59:20,360 --> 00:59:23,800
Speaker 3: But yeah, I just I have no cop like it's

1059
00:59:23,880 --> 00:59:26,800
Speaker 3: the it's the there's value on that number, for sure,

1060
00:59:26,840 --> 00:59:29,400
Speaker 3: but I feel like there's it's like a higher variance

1061
00:59:29,440 --> 00:59:31,320
Speaker 3: thing where it's Carolina, because what are they wanted. The

1062
00:59:31,320 --> 00:59:33,200
Speaker 3: only game they covered was the Raiders. I think it's

1063
00:59:33,240 --> 00:59:37,280
Speaker 3: just when they it just I could see Kirk Cousins

1064
00:59:37,320 --> 00:59:40,960
Speaker 3: just going like score, score or score, and like, at

1065
00:59:40,960 --> 00:59:42,800
Speaker 3: some point Carolina probably is not gonna be able to

1066
00:59:42,800 --> 00:59:43,160
Speaker 3: match it.

1067
00:59:43,280 --> 00:59:45,120
Speaker 2: So yeah, I make it four and a half. So

1068
00:59:45,160 --> 00:59:47,080
Speaker 2: it's Carolina nothing but probably needs seven.

1069
00:59:48,320 --> 00:59:51,640
Speaker 3: And then finally that game we uh we discussed a

1070
00:59:51,680 --> 00:59:54,640
Speaker 3: little bit, but didn't fully didn't actually discuss it because

1071
00:59:54,640 --> 00:59:56,720
Speaker 3: it wasn't a part of any plays. So that's the

1072
00:59:56,800 --> 00:59:59,920
Speaker 3: Sunday Night Bengals at Giants. Giants three and a half

1073
01:00:00,040 --> 01:00:05,840
Speaker 3: point dougs. At home, the total was forty eight. Uh. Yeah,

1074
01:00:06,200 --> 01:00:08,320
Speaker 3: as you mentioned giants playing well, they do have this

1075
01:00:08,400 --> 01:00:12,520
Speaker 3: tendency to not play well at home. For what it's worth,

1076
01:00:13,080 --> 01:00:18,280
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones at home has just been the kind of

1077
01:00:18,280 --> 01:00:21,200
Speaker 3: the complete opposite, Like on the road is usually the

1078
01:00:21,200 --> 01:00:22,600
Speaker 3: time you want to play him. I don't know if

1079
01:00:22,600 --> 01:00:25,400
Speaker 3: there's any you know, merit to that or whatever, but

1080
01:00:26,400 --> 01:00:30,480
Speaker 3: you're you're leaning Giants at the three and a half correct, No.

1081
01:00:30,600 --> 01:00:33,040
Speaker 2: I mean I would prefer just giants money line, like

1082
01:00:33,200 --> 01:00:38,600
Speaker 2: just because maybe since he quits and just isn't there mentally,

1083
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:41,760
Speaker 2: I mean as a devastating loss, so and like this

1084
01:00:42,200 --> 01:00:43,600
Speaker 2: tailor to lose the locker room like you had all

1085
01:00:43,600 --> 01:00:46,080
Speaker 2: these quotes come out, like why didn't like the questioning

1086
01:00:46,120 --> 01:00:47,120
Speaker 2: the coaching decisions.

1087
01:00:49,040 --> 01:00:52,400
Speaker 3: I will say though, so if like like Baltimore could

1088
01:00:52,440 --> 01:00:55,040
Speaker 3: have lost or Pittsburgh could have lost by the time

1089
01:00:55,080 --> 01:00:57,520
Speaker 3: they play, which would then probably give them more motivation.

1090
01:00:58,200 --> 01:01:02,200
Speaker 2: Yeah. I you know, the thing is I would I

1091
01:01:02,200 --> 01:01:04,600
Speaker 2: would look at this under I've been all about the

1092
01:01:04,640 --> 01:01:07,920
Speaker 2: since the overs and I don't know why they've unders

1093
01:01:07,960 --> 01:01:12,760
Speaker 2: have keep taking money every week, but the total against

1094
01:01:12,920 --> 01:01:17,080
Speaker 2: the Commanders who have a better offense than the Giants

1095
01:01:18,000 --> 01:01:20,520
Speaker 2: and just as bad as the defense close a forty

1096
01:01:20,520 --> 01:01:24,840
Speaker 2: five and a half. The Ravens Bengals total close at

1097
01:01:24,880 --> 01:01:27,160
Speaker 2: forty eight and a half. Now this is forty and

1098
01:01:27,160 --> 01:01:29,680
Speaker 2: a half two slow paced teams. I think like the

1099
01:01:30,360 --> 01:01:34,440
Speaker 2: we finally hit a point where you can look at

1100
01:01:34,600 --> 01:01:37,640
Speaker 2: A and the Bengals getting a little bit healthier on defense.

1101
01:01:37,720 --> 01:01:39,960
Speaker 2: Then you can look at an under here. I'll show

1102
01:01:39,960 --> 01:01:42,680
Speaker 2: a ton of value in it, and Barrow should have

1103
01:01:42,720 --> 01:01:45,120
Speaker 2: a big game. But I think there's finally some value

1104
01:01:45,120 --> 01:01:48,640
Speaker 2: on A since the under. I mean, I make this

1105
01:01:49,480 --> 01:01:52,760
Speaker 2: close to market, but if you want to take a

1106
01:01:52,800 --> 01:01:56,000
Speaker 2: shot with the Giants on the money line, I wouldn't

1107
01:01:56,120 --> 01:01:58,200
Speaker 2: ate it. This Sincy team is fragile.

1108
01:01:59,680 --> 01:02:03,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, so your point about the total, Daniel Jones at

1109
01:02:03,440 --> 01:02:07,480
Speaker 3: home the under twenty two to nine, seventy one percent

1110
01:02:07,640 --> 01:02:11,040
Speaker 3: to zero this season, So it tends to be the

1111
01:02:11,120 --> 01:02:14,120
Speaker 3: Giants offense for some reason, never plays as well at home.

1112
01:02:14,800 --> 01:02:17,080
Speaker 3: We'll see if that trend reverses. But yeah, I could.

1113
01:02:17,640 --> 01:02:20,440
Speaker 3: I feel like this total is a little high as well.

1114
01:02:20,680 --> 01:02:24,200
Speaker 3: The number probably I think it's Giants or nothing. Yeah,

1115
01:02:24,200 --> 01:02:26,120
Speaker 3: I don't think you want to weigh points with the Bengals,

1116
01:02:26,280 --> 01:02:28,960
Speaker 3: you know, betting on a get right spot where it's

1117
01:02:29,040 --> 01:02:31,080
Speaker 3: just the Giants have been playing with I think a

1118
01:02:31,080 --> 01:02:34,479
Speaker 3: little too well for that especially you know they're at home.

1119
01:02:34,760 --> 01:02:37,360
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think it's it's the total or nothing

1120
01:02:38,120 --> 01:02:41,280
Speaker 3: from that perspective. Yeah, So that's a wrap. That's a

1121
01:02:41,320 --> 01:02:46,160
Speaker 3: wrap for our week six Action Network NFL podcast. You

1122
01:02:46,200 --> 01:02:48,600
Speaker 3: can hear more of me every week with my guy

1123
01:02:48,720 --> 01:02:52,960
Speaker 3: Sean Kerner talking Fantasy DFS player projections, all that good

1124
01:02:53,000 --> 01:02:56,360
Speaker 3: stuff over on the Fantasy Flex Podcast and Stuck you

1125
01:02:56,400 --> 01:02:59,640
Speaker 3: can hear him talking college football over on Big Bets

1126
01:02:59,720 --> 01:03:03,800
Speaker 3: on Campus. You can find Stuck on X at Stucky two.

1127
01:03:04,000 --> 01:03:06,240
Speaker 3: I'm at Chris Raybaumber at those same handles on the

1128
01:03:06,280 --> 01:03:10,880
Speaker 3: free award winning Action Network app. So next week, let's

1129
01:03:10,880 --> 01:03:20,720
Speaker 3: get this money, let go.

1130
01:03:22,760 --> 01:03:27,320
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1131
01:03:27,320 --> 01:03:30,120
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1132
01:03:30,160 --> 01:03:33,280
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