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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news from the heart of

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Speaker 1: where innovation, money and power collide in Silicon Valley and beyond.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Technology with Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow.

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Speaker 2: Good morning.

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Speaker 3: I'm Tim Stenebeck and I'm Katie Grefeld Greifeld. It is Friday.

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Speaker 3: We're both in New York City. Welcome to Bloomberg Technology.

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Speaker 4: Coming up metas Nick Klegg steps down as president of

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Speaker 4: Global Affairs and is replaced by a longtime exec with

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Speaker 4: Republican ties ahead of Trump's second term.

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Speaker 3: Plus TikTok in focus with a lumin ban later this month,

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Speaker 3: will the Supreme Court.

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Speaker 5: Save the day?

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Speaker 4: And China flex is its lithium dominance by planning tougher

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Speaker 4: scrutiny on next sport so technology to make battery materials.

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Speaker 4: All that and more over the next hour on Bloomberg Technology.

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Speaker 4: First though, a check on the markets. Megamp tech right

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Speaker 4: now driving stocks hire today. Look at that the NASZAQ

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Speaker 4: one hundred doll a full percentage point eighty six stocks higher,

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Speaker 4: led by Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft. On the downside, we

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Speaker 4: got Apple lower again. We're going to be speaking with

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Speaker 4: Ryan Vestelica in just a few minutes on the company's

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Speaker 4: longest losing streak since November, down more than six percent

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Speaker 4: from that post Christmas all time high. As far as

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Speaker 4: the index go, the big question, Katie, can today's gains

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Speaker 4: hold because we saw the same thing play out yesterday

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Speaker 4: when stocks started out a little higher than closed lower.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, yesterday was actually the worst trading day of the year. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: thank you for laughing.

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Speaker 2: You got it.

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Speaker 4: I got to check out on big quite higher by

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Speaker 4: half a percentage point right now, arising for a fourth

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Speaker 4: day in a row. Still investors pulling money from that

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Speaker 4: ibit ETF three hundred and thirty three million dollars yesterday.

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Speaker 4: That's according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: I will say that was its worst outflow ever. But

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Speaker 3: for a fifty billion dollar plus fund, it's amazing that

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Speaker 3: only three hundred million dollar counts as a record outflow.

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Speaker 5: But in any case, let's talk about.

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Speaker 3: Some individual names here, and we have to talk about

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Speaker 3: what's going on with Nvidia shares. You talk about big

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Speaker 3: tech driving the day, it's in Nvidia that is driving.

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Speaker 3: The index is higher right now, up about three and

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Speaker 3: a half percent. Not a huge move in the grand scheme.

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Speaker 5: Of life.

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Speaker 3: But that is your biggest points contributor to the S

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Speaker 3: and P five hundreds gain right now. Similar story if

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Speaker 3: you take a look at the NASAQ one hundred.

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Speaker 5: So that's some good news.

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Speaker 3: Let's talk about Apple though, because of course, Tim, you

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Speaker 3: mentioned that in.

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Speaker 5: Apple there's a lot of fears about China right now,

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Speaker 5: and you.

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Speaker 3: Can see that those fears if you take a look

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Speaker 3: at the five day chart right now, down six percent

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Speaker 3: over the last five days. That is its longest such

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Speaker 3: streak since April. So definitely a lot of concerns about Apple.

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Speaker 3: Let's talk about them all now with Ryan Vlastelica joining

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Speaker 3: us and Ryan when it comes to Apple and China fears,

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Speaker 3: of course, remember Ruter's reported on Thursday that the company

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Speaker 3: is offering discounted smartphones in China. It feels like this

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Speaker 3: has been the baarcase for a while for this company.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, good morning, thanks for having me.

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Speaker 5: So.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, China is a major market for Apple, no surprise

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Speaker 7: about that. And the latest data on you know, monthly

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Speaker 7: sales and shipments of iPhones in the country, you know.

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Speaker 2: Have been sort of muted.

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Speaker 7: Is sort of just sort of the overall takeaway and

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Speaker 7: given just the size of that market, given the importance

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Speaker 7: of the iPhone sixteen, which is of course the first

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Speaker 7: one to have AI features, the fact that that is

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Speaker 7: being met with some you know, weak sales data out

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Speaker 7: of China, that's a little bit of a cause for concern,

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Speaker 7: especially when you're looking at a backdrop that could have

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Speaker 7: elevated terraf risks, you know, slower growth potential and just

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Speaker 7: whole you know, general list of concerns out there. So

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Speaker 7: the fact that you're seeing weakness in China is certainly

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Speaker 7: just a reason for people to start the year off

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Speaker 7: on a little bit of a more cautious note, especially

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Speaker 7: given how strong it performed going into the you know,

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Speaker 7: the end of twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 4: I feel like this is how we started last year, Ryan,

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Speaker 4: with all these concerns about China, and then Apple just

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Speaker 4: you know, hit it out of the park, as it

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Speaker 4: does seemingly all the time.

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Speaker 7: What's going on here, Well, you certainly have plenty of

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Speaker 7: reasons for people to be optimistic, because you do have

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Speaker 7: this sort of long term story of AI entering the iPhone,

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Speaker 7: you know, more applications being released with AI features. That's

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Speaker 7: something that's going to be playing out over the course

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Speaker 7: of not only twenty twenty five, but you know, twenty

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Speaker 7: twenty six and twenty twenty seven, and it's likely we'll

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Speaker 7: start to see more upgrades over time. So that's something

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Speaker 7: for people to be optimistic about. AI probably means higher

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Speaker 7: services growth or maybe more cloud growth. There's all kinds

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Speaker 7: of potential tail ones associated with it.

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Speaker 6: But just for the time.

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Speaker 7: Being, given you have such a major market out there

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Speaker 7: seeing a little bit of a shakiness, it's probably not surprising,

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Speaker 7: you know, can as people continue to wonder about what

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Speaker 7: is Apple's overall growth rate going to be? Is it

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Speaker 7: going to be as strong at other names within big tech?

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Speaker 7: How does evaluation look relative to other names within big tech?

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Speaker 7: Just reasons maybe again for people maybe to be easing

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Speaker 7: off a little bit in the first days of the year.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Ryan Bostelica, thanks so much. Appreciate it.

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Speaker 4: For more on the broader tech market, Mark Mahaney, Evercore

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Speaker 4: ISI Senior Managing director joins us now Mark good as

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Speaker 4: always to see you.

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Speaker 2: Nazak one hundred last.

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Speaker 4: Year, up by close to twenty five percent in twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty three, high by more than fifty percent. The tech

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Speaker 4: stocks that you follow still room to run higher in

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 6: I think so.

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Speaker 8: But look the setup here, as we were in a

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Speaker 8: two and a half years into a major bull market.

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Speaker 8: It started in the middle of twenty twenty two after

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Speaker 8: we'd had this shock of this dramatic ramp in interest rates,

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Speaker 8: and since then tech stocks have done really nothing but

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Speaker 8: go up. At some point that'll fade, and I think

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Speaker 8: it'll face start fading this year. I don't think you'll

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Speaker 8: have the outperformance going into this year's you had the

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Speaker 8: last two years. Maybe that's an easy statement to make.

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Speaker 8: I look at the fundamentals of the group. I look

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Speaker 8: at the Internet names, and I look at online retail,

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Speaker 8: online travel, cloud computingising, and I think the growth rates

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Speaker 8: there are relatively sustainable. All of the checks we had

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Speaker 8: at the end of last year going in the beginning

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Speaker 8: of this year have been relatively constructive. We also had

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Speaker 8: record high margins, and I think those margins are largely

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Speaker 8: sustainable because I think the sector as a whole is

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Speaker 8: just being more judicious about headcount ads than they were

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Speaker 8: in the past. And I do think the third factor

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Speaker 8: here is this Ai jen Ai. I think it's a

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Speaker 8: gift that keeps on is going to keep on giving

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Speaker 8: for quite some time. It just leads to more efficient processes,

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Speaker 8: better revenue streams, etc. So there's a couple of reasons

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Speaker 8: to stay fundamentally constructive. I just there's very little dislocation.

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Speaker 8: There's very little. Very few of the major tech stocks

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Speaker 8: that I look at really look dislocated. The one that

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Speaker 8: I really like here that I think is is Uber.

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Speaker 3: Well, talk to us about that because ubert it's so

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Speaker 3: dominant compared to Lift, but the fact that it hasn't

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Speaker 3: exactly kept up with some of the other Internet large

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Speaker 3: cap names that you cover that have seen the really

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Speaker 3: dramatic multiple expansion. What is the bowl case for Uber

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Speaker 3: going forward?

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Speaker 6: Well, let me start with the barecases.

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Speaker 8: You know, you did have a slow down in mobility

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Speaker 8: bookings that's their ride share business in the back half

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Speaker 8: of last year of twenty four. And then there's really

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Speaker 8: the concern over robotaxis and whether they'll obviate the need

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Speaker 8: to ever have ride sharing networks in the future.

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Speaker 6: I mean, it's possible that that happens.

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Speaker 8: I'm taking the other side on that, But those are

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Speaker 8: the two factors that have cost the stock to correct

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Speaker 8: from like mid eighties down to sixty sixty dollars, a

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Speaker 8: pretty material correction. The stocks I look at is the

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Speaker 8: only one that's really materially corrected. But I think that

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Speaker 8: creates the opportunity because I think as the largest demand

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Speaker 8: aggregator out there, I think that robotaxis will find a

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Speaker 8: place on ubers network. We got two cities Austin in

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Speaker 8: Atlanta where we're going to see Weimo robotaxis on ubers network.

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Speaker 8: And my guess is that you know, I'm a big

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Speaker 8: fan of robotaxis here and of Weimo here in San Francisco,

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Speaker 8: and I think you're going to see more competition in

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Speaker 8: that space in the future, and I think you'll see

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Speaker 8: more of those cars on Uber's network. And evidence that

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Speaker 8: they will be on Uber's network is the catalyst on

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Speaker 8: the shares.

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Speaker 9: Well.

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Speaker 3: I've never been in a way though, but I'll be

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Speaker 3: in sanfor in about two weeks.

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Speaker 2: Should do it. It's awesome. Yeah, it's so cool.

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Speaker 3: I have a real fear of my own mortality, so well,

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Speaker 3: we'll put a pin in that. But in any case, Mark,

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Speaker 3: I'm taking a look at your notes.

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Speaker 5: You mentioned.

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Speaker 3: Of course those dislocated high quality stocks. Uber is among them,

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Speaker 3: so is ARABNB so is Alphabet, And that caught my

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Speaker 3: attention because Alphabet is in a bit of a different

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Speaker 3: league than the airbnbs and the ubers of this market.

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Speaker 8: Well Google, I would say that Google at one sixty

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Speaker 8: was dislocated a one ninety. I'm not sure it is,

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Speaker 8: but we've got some events coming up. There's two particular

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Speaker 8: of this is all getting out of fundamentals. This is

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Speaker 8: all regulatory. First is the DOJ's anti trust case against

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Speaker 8: Google and Google asst this in terms of its search business.

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Speaker 8: We're not going to get really great visibility into this

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Speaker 8: until August unless there's some sort of settlements, and I

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Speaker 8: think the chances of the settlements went up when we

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Speaker 8: had the US electoral results. Well, you know, that's a

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Speaker 8: very hard thing to handicap. But that's one factor out there.

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Speaker 8: And then the other one is the TikTok ban, and

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Speaker 8: you know we're days away from this band going into effect.

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Speaker 6: Now.

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Speaker 8: It's possible to get stayed. There is a provision in

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Speaker 8: the law for that. It's possible to get stayed. And

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Speaker 8: it's possible that there's some sort of force sale or

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Speaker 8: a sale of TikTok. But if there is a TikTok ban,

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Speaker 8: and I think the market is really heavily discounting this

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Speaker 8: by more than they probably should. If there is a

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Speaker 8: banning of TikTok, I think the beneficiaries of this are

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Speaker 8: going to be Google YouTube YouTube shorts okay, and reels

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Speaker 8: at meta.

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Speaker 4: Who's the bigger beneficiary if the band goes into effecting

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Speaker 4: meta platforms because of what's going on with Instagram and reels?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think so.

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Speaker 8: I mean, just you know, users, if you really can't,

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Speaker 8: if I can't really use TikTok like you're gonna there's

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Speaker 8: a wonderful value proposition to TikTok, and so people will

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Speaker 8: look for other short form video places. Reels is kind

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Speaker 8: of the topless, but those YouTube shorts, so just meta

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Speaker 8: by hair over Google.

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Speaker 6: But they both are beneficiaries.

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Speaker 8: And then advertisers have got these ad format's nailed, They've

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Speaker 8: got them locked in.

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Speaker 6: They can't put them on TikTok. They're going to have

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Speaker 6: to find other.

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Speaker 8: Places, and the two obvious places are Google and Meta.

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Speaker 4: What's the percentage chance mark that you think this ban

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Speaker 4: actually goes through with TikTok, I don't know.

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Speaker 8: I guess it's still a minority chance, So you know,

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Speaker 8: I don't think it's a probability. It's less than fifty

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Speaker 8: percent chance. Maybe it's twenty twenty five percent. I'm just

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Speaker 8: struck by talking with investors as a belief that there's

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Speaker 8: single digital percent chance that it goes through. But it

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Speaker 8: is the law of the land, and this is not

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Speaker 8: a First Amendment issue. I know this First Amendment aspects

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Speaker 8: to it. It's really national security, and this was this

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Speaker 8: was a pretty broad bipartisan congressional law that went into effect.

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Speaker 8: I mean that was pretty well voted on by both

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Speaker 8: Democrats and Republicans, and so you know, this is the

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Speaker 8: law of the land that's going to go into effect.

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Speaker 6: It, but who knows what happens in the next couple

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Speaker 6: of weeks. So I'm a little baffled by this.

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Speaker 8: But anyway, that's the law of land, and if it

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Speaker 8: does go into effect, it you know there's a clear

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Speaker 8: positive catalyst for both Google and Meta.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it'll be fascinating to see how that actually shakes out.

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Speaker 3: But Mark, before we let you go, when it comes

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Speaker 3: to TikTok and potential beneficiaries of a band, we were

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Speaker 3: actually talking about this in one of our morning meetings,

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Speaker 3: that you take a look at the content on reels,

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Speaker 3: for example, A lot of it is recycled content from TikTok.

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Speaker 3: So how urgent of a question is it for Meta

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Speaker 3: to actually attract the creators onto their own platform.

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Speaker 8: Oh, it's critical for them to do that. I mean

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Speaker 8: whether or not there's a TikTok ban. I just think

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Speaker 8: if there's a TikTok ban, those creators are going to

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Speaker 8: be forced to take their audiences and build them somewhere else.

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Speaker 8: And I'd be surprised if major TikTok A lot of

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Speaker 8: TikTok creators. I think you are somewhat diversified anyway. I

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Speaker 8: know there's some that aren't, but I think there's a

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Speaker 8: good number that are so anyway.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, this has always been the drive of Meta is.

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Speaker 8: To attract more more short form video content and talent

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Speaker 8: over to its network.

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Speaker 6: I think they'll be able to do that.

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Speaker 8: They've been pretty successful at doing it in a lot

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Speaker 8: of different areas.

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Speaker 6: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Well, Mark, great point to leave it on. Really appreciate

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Speaker 3: the time that is. Mark Behiney of Evercore isi A.

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Speaker 2: You're gonna be okay if TikTok ats man, I'm.

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Speaker 3: Going to be pretty sad. I spent about three hours

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Speaker 3: there a day, So I mean, maybe it'll be good.

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Speaker 4: For me, Katie to real's it'll be that'll be huge.

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Speaker 3: Bomtas Nick Clegg is stepping down from his role as

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Speaker 3: president of Global Affairs and will be replaced by Joel Kaplan.

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Speaker 3: He is a longtime executive with Republican ties. Now this

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Speaker 3: move marks a shift by the social media giant, so

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Speaker 3: it prepares for a second Trump presidency. For more, We're

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Speaker 3: joined now by Bloomberg's Kurt Wagner, and of course Clegg

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Speaker 3: said of Kaplan that he was clearly the right person

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Speaker 3: for the right job at the right time.

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Speaker 5: Kurt tell us, why.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, Well, as you mentioned, Katie, this is a transition

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Speaker 10: into you know, Trump's second term, and this is someone

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Speaker 10: who is you know, Joel Kaplan being someone with Republican ties,

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Speaker 10: with a lot of history with the Republican Party.

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Speaker 6: You know, works for George W.

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Speaker 10: Bush's administration way back in the day. So someone who

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Speaker 10: I think can maybe speak that language better than Nick Clegg,

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Speaker 10: who you know, came over from the UK. I do

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Speaker 10: think that this sort of signals, you know, that Meta

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Speaker 10: certainly sees the most important relationships right now being domestic right,

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Speaker 10: and not necessarily what's going on in Europe where there's

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Speaker 10: a ton of regulatory issues, which is something I think

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Speaker 10: Nick Clegg was very well positioned to handle.

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Speaker 4: Kurt Joel Kaplan may be somebody with Republican Party ties,

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Speaker 4: but the Republican Party that he was part.

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Speaker 2: Of the George W.

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Speaker 4: Bush administration, for example, is a far cry from Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump's Republican Party, and in fact, many of the folks

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Speaker 4: in the Republican Party now criticize that administration. And I'm

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Speaker 4: wondering if you think there's going to be any tension there,

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Speaker 4: If there is any tension there, if it still represents

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Speaker 4: a disconnect between meta platforms and the Republican Party of today, yehossibly.

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Speaker 10: But this is what every big tech company is going

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Speaker 10: to be dealing with, right, which is that the more

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Speaker 10: traditional folks that they have in their policy divisions might

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Speaker 10: not necessarily be the Maga Trump candidate party that we're

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Speaker 10: starting to see really emergent take off.

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Speaker 6: Now.

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Speaker 10: It's closer, right, Joel Kaplan is going to be closer

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Speaker 10: in alignment with those types of issues, I think than

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Speaker 10: maybe someone like Nick Klegg. So maybe that helps, But

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Speaker 10: I think the key here is really Mark Zuckerberg's role.

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Speaker 10: Right For the last four years, he has been saying, Hey,

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Speaker 10: I want to be hands off. This is this policy

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Speaker 10: stuff is not for me. I want to focus on product.

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Speaker 10: I want to focus on the business. But now we

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Speaker 10: see him show up in mar A Lago, we see

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Speaker 10: him calling Donald Trump personally, and I think that Mark

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Speaker 10: Zuckerberg will likely handle the line's share of the relationship

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Speaker 10: with Donald Trump himself, and then you let Joel Kaplan

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Speaker 10: sort of deal with all of this stuff on Capitol

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Speaker 10: Hill where he is very well connected. It's just given

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Speaker 10: all the years that he's been working in this industry.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Ker Wagner joining us this morning. Thanks so much, Kurt,

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Speaker 2: do appreciate it.

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Speaker 4: Well, It's not just Metta that is preparing for Trump's

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Speaker 4: second administration. Other big tech leaders have met with the

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Speaker 4: President elect, including the likes of Jeff Bezos, Sunder Pachai,

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Speaker 4: and Tim Cook, all ahead of his return to the

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Speaker 4: White House. For more on the future of Silicon Valley's

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Speaker 4: relationship with Trump. Adam Kavakovich is a Chamber of Progress

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Speaker 4: CEO and he joins us now. Adam, how would you

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Speaker 4: describe the relationship between technology and the incoming Trump administration,

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Speaker 4: because a lot has changed over the last four years,

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Speaker 4: especially with the rhetoric out of Silicon Valley more pro Trump,

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Speaker 4: I think now than it ever has been.

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Speaker 11: Yeah, I think you have to factor in two things. One,

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Speaker 11: there's a lot of unhappiness in the tech industry with

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Speaker 11: how the Biden administration has targeted tech and seen tech

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Speaker 11: more as an industry to trash rather than than an

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Speaker 11: industry to champion. And so frankly, I think there's a

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Speaker 11: lot of frustration from people in Silicon Valley who are

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Speaker 11: not necessarily Trump supporters or even right leaning, but there's

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Speaker 11: been a lot of frustration that the administration hasn't champion

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Speaker 11: in basically, you know, us the country's biggest export, So

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Speaker 11: that's number one. Number Two, everyone has the benefit of

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Speaker 11: having learned from the first Trump term in terms of

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Speaker 11: what worked and what didn't. In terms of how to

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Speaker 11: deal with president and work with him. I think a

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Speaker 11: lot of tech CEOs look to Tim Cook for this

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Speaker 11: as the CEO who probably managed the first Trump administration

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Speaker 11: the best, and a lot of that, frankly, came down

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Speaker 11: to direct contact between the CEO and Trump himself. As

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Speaker 11: you said, that's not something that can be easily designated

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Speaker 11: to a deputy. Trump really cares about meeting with the CEO,

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Speaker 11: and in fact, that kind of meeting often works that

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Speaker 11: succeeds with him. So I think that's what a lot

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Speaker 11: of companies are meeting with.

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Speaker 3: Let's go to what Trump himself has said. Of course,

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Speaker 3: this is a post on social media in late December.

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Speaker 3: Big tech has run wild for years, stifling competition in

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Speaker 3: our most innovative sector, and as we all know, using

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Speaker 3: its market power to crack down on the rights of

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Speaker 3: so many Americans, as well as those of little tech.

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Speaker 3: Which is not a phrase that I've heard before.

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Speaker 2: But reading maybe truth social is a little tech.

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Speaker 5: That's true.

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Speaker 3: Maybe he's talking his book there, but reading between the lines,

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Speaker 3: it seems like that would suggest that this anti trust

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Speaker 3: pressure that has been on these big tech names is

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Speaker 3: going to continue.

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Speaker 12: Oh.

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Speaker 13: I don't think there's any doubt about that.

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Speaker 11: The fact is, you know, the Biden administration has been

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Speaker 11: prosecuting anti trust cases against all of the big tech companies.

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Speaker 11: Some of those started under Trump's first term. I don't

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Speaker 11: expect any of that to go away. But I will

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Speaker 11: say I don't think Trump particularly cares about antitrust as

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Speaker 11: an issue. What I think he really cares about is

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Speaker 11: are these companies.

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Speaker 13: Nice to him? And I think he's views anti.

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Speaker 11: Trust lawsuits as leverage, and so I don't think you'll

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Speaker 11: see a lot of settlements, even though you know they'll

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Speaker 11: be sort of right leaning people may not agree with

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Speaker 11: the substance of the suit. I think you will see

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Speaker 11: the Trump administration enforceers keep these suits going because they

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Speaker 11: are leverage over the companies over things like content atoation

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Speaker 11: and speech.

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Speaker 13: But I do think there's a real interesting question here,

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Speaker 13: which is this little tech question.

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Speaker 6: You said right.

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Speaker 11: The Biden administration has had a chill over mergers and acquisitions,

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Speaker 11: and that's been intentional. That's part of their approach to

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Speaker 11: tech m and A and but little tech companies benefit

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Speaker 11: when big tech companies are able to acquire them. In fact,

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Speaker 11: many companies startups want the ability to be acquired as

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Speaker 11: an exit path.

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Speaker 13: And so this is going to be.

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Speaker 11: A real test for the Trump administration. Does little tech

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Speaker 11: do do they or do they not want big tech

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Speaker 11: to be free to acquire small companies. Again, I think

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Speaker 11: that's going to be a big tension within their administration's

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Speaker 11: antitrust enforcement.

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Speaker 4: Adam, what Adam, very quickly, what has been your conversations

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Speaker 4: with members of the incoming Trump administration thus far?

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Speaker 11: Well, you know, it's been very interesting because I do

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Speaker 11: think they have people who really do want to get

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Speaker 11: it right on things like AI and crypto, people like

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Speaker 11: David Sachs.

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Speaker 13: They are they are talking to people in the administration.

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Speaker 11: I think there's frankly, a lot of optimism that on

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Speaker 11: things like crypto, the Trump folks will reverse the hostility

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Speaker 11: that the Biden administration has brought towards the crypto industry.

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Speaker 13: I think there's a lot of optimism that things.

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Speaker 11: Like the Biden Executive Order on artificial intelligence will be overturned.

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Speaker 11: And there's a lot of optimism we can shift to

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Speaker 11: a kind of a more of a mode of let's

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Speaker 11: go beat China and other countries on technology. But there's

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Speaker 11: a lot of debates that are going to be kind

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Speaker 11: of up for grabs. There's a big debate about H

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Speaker 11: one b's right now and where you have elements of

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Speaker 11: the Republican Coalition against each other.

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Speaker 13: So we'll see how those unfold.

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Speaker 3: All right, Adam, great to get some time with you.

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Speaker 3: That is Adam Kovakovic of the Chamber of Progress Now

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Speaker 3: coming up.

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Speaker 5: Turow's safety under scrutiny.

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Speaker 3: After it was revealed that the platform was used for

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Speaker 3: current vehicles in both the New Orleans and the Las

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Speaker 3: Vegas attacks. More next.

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Speaker 4: Well, Turro's safety team scrambled to return to work after

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Speaker 4: the latest attacks in Las Vegas and New Orleans, where

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Speaker 4: it was revealed that the attackers use the car rental

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Speaker 4: platform to procure their vehicles for more. Bloomberg's Dana Wolman

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Speaker 4: joins us Now, Dan, I think for a lot of

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Speaker 4: people watching these attacks unfold over the last couple of days,

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Speaker 4: this was the first time they heard about Turow. I've

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Speaker 4: been describing it as the kind of like Airbnb of

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Speaker 4: vehicle rentals.

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Speaker 2: That's how it work.

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Speaker 14: That is the perfect way to describe it. It is

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Speaker 14: people choosing to rent their own vehicles when and how

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Speaker 14: and at what price they choose, and that makes it

442
00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:37,680
Speaker 14: a little different from a car rental fleet, where car

443
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:41,080
Speaker 14: rental services obviously own the vehicles, so it's really inherently

444
00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:42,880
Speaker 14: a different level of liability.

445
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:45,919
Speaker 3: I also had not heard about Turow, but this is

446
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 3: a company that has been an IPO candidate for a while.

447
00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:51,879
Speaker 3: And it was interesting to see that in its paperwork

448
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 3: to go public, it actually noted that vehicle damage and

449
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 3: other safety and security issues could harm their reputation, and

450
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:00,720
Speaker 3: that's what.

451
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:01,960
Speaker 5: We saw absolutely.

452
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,200
Speaker 14: I don't think these are the exact kind of incidents

453
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,919
Speaker 14: they had in mind, but yes, it is people renting

454
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 14: each other's vehicles, and there's a similar risk as Tim

455
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:14,080
Speaker 14: said on Airbnb, where someone could trash someone else's property,

456
00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 14: word could get out, and to the extent that the

457
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:19,800
Speaker 14: service might grow through word of mouth, the reputation could

458
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:21,520
Speaker 14: also sour through word of mouth.

459
00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:24,600
Speaker 4: There are questions about background checks coming out now. We're

460
00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,760
Speaker 4: given that these two vehicles were used by folks who

461
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 4: ended up causing loss of life, whether it was their

462
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 4: own or others. The thing is they don't do background

463
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:36,879
Speaker 4: checks with a normal rental car company. I don't think so.

464
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,919
Speaker 4: I don't know if that's necessarily apples and oranges here

465
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 4: apples to apples right.

466
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,439
Speaker 14: What the company would say and has said publicly, is

467
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:46,760
Speaker 14: that the suspects in both attacks did not have criminal

468
00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:48,480
Speaker 14: records that would have shown up in any.

469
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 5: Sort of checks.

470
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 14: That said, our team is very interested and is continuing

471
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,879
Speaker 14: to report on exactly how the checks work at Touro.

472
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 14: Like so many algorithms out there in different services, the

473
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:02,399
Speaker 14: algorithm here seems pre nebulous. It seems to be dozens

474
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:05,360
Speaker 14: of different data points that are checked very quickly, even

475
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 14: by the company's own admission and regulatory filings. Most users

476
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:12,119
Speaker 14: are approved within seconds, how exactly and based on what criteria?

477
00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:14,879
Speaker 14: We're trying to find that out as well.

478
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:17,439
Speaker 3: All right, Dana, look forward to more reporting from you

479
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:29,119
Speaker 3: and your team, that is Bloomberg's Dana Lman, Welcome back

480
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 3: to Bloomberg Technology.

481
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:31,520
Speaker 5: I'm Katie Greifelp and.

482
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 2: I'm Jim Steinovic, both here in New York City.

483
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:35,400
Speaker 5: Let's go to check on these markets.

484
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:37,399
Speaker 3: Of course, we have green on the screen, a nice

485
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 3: turnaround from yesterday's closed. You can see the NASAQ one

486
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,239
Speaker 3: hundred up by more than one percent one point two

487
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,880
Speaker 3: percent right now. A lot of those games being led

488
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 3: by Nvidio, of course, having a good day today, pulling

489
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 3: its my but pretty broad breath in the technology sector overall.

490
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,440
Speaker 3: You take a look at the risk appetite being expressed

491
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,920
Speaker 3: in bitcoin right now. Bitcoin also higher to the tune

492
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,680
Speaker 3: about nine tenths of a person, and of course we're

493
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 3: still below one hundred thousand dollars per coin, but never

494
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:05,879
Speaker 3: said ever. Maybe we'll get back there, maybe even today,

495
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 3: given how volatile bitcoin is. But let's talk about Rivian.

496
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 3: Of course, this was one of the big stories from

497
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 3: this morning. Rivian out with its fourth quarter production numbers

498
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 3: beating estimates. Production came out with about twelve seven hundred vehicles.

499
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 3: The estimate had been for eleven four hundred. So you're seeing,

500
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 3: of course, Rivian shares being rewarded in a big way

501
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,640
Speaker 3: right now, up about twenty one point six percent.

502
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:32,240
Speaker 5: Tesla getting in on the action.

503
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 3: Remember that disappointment that we saw with deliveries fourth quarter

504
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 3: deliveries for Tesla yesterday a distant memory. Tesla shares also

505
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:41,680
Speaker 3: up by about four point six percent right now.

506
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:45,560
Speaker 4: Tim CFIA actually reiterating its sell opinion on shares of Rivian,

507
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 4: a price target of eight dollars.

508
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 2: Look at that hikes. Yeah, shares trading at sixteen dollars

509
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 2: right now.

510
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,119
Speaker 4: We're talking to Garret Nelson a little later on a

511
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,880
Speaker 4: Bloomberg and BusinessWeek. Hey, let's get on over to tech

512
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 4: and rising global trade tensions, with China planning tougher scrutiny

513
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,920
Speaker 4: on xt of technology to make battery materials. This as

514
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:06,200
Speaker 4: Beijing looks to protect its grip on the crucial supply chain.

515
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 4: This is according to a notice seeking public opinion from

516
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 4: the Ministry of Commerce on Thursday. Bloomberg's Mike Shepard joins

517
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 4: us for more Mike when it comes to rising trade tensions,

518
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 4: when it comes to tariffs and protectionism, it certainly is

519
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:23,360
Speaker 4: a game that two can play. How much leverage does

520
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:28,359
Speaker 4: China have when it comes to exports of these critical materials.

521
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:32,679
Speaker 15: Well, it matters because these are the essential ingredients to

522
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 15: a lot of things, and in this case, they're focusing

523
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:39,680
Speaker 15: on what goes into the batteries that will be essential

524
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 15: and critical to powering this next generation of electric vehicles,

525
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:45,119
Speaker 15: not only here in the US.

526
00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:47,120
Speaker 2: But elsewhere around the world. This is.

527
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 15: A field and industry, a sector that China really has

528
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:57,000
Speaker 15: developed a strong advantage in developing the technology needed to

529
00:24:57,080 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 15: refine the chemicals used in making a car battery, you know,

530
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 15: the kind that you'd see in the electric vehicles on

531
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:08,200
Speaker 15: our streets. It's also been behind the rise of their

532
00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:12,440
Speaker 15: electric vehicle makers, most notably byd which have emerged as

533
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:16,200
Speaker 15: global leaders. So this is an area where they can

534
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 15: actually say, oh no, we're going to try to fence

535
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:23,399
Speaker 15: you off to protect our advantage. And in turn, the

536
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 15: US has seen a risk coming from car makers like BYD.

537
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 15: Earlier this year, we saw the Biden administration impose steep

538
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 15: tariffs on imports into the US of Chinese electric vehels,

539
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 15: really designed to keep them out of this market, to

540
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 15: avoid undercutting the efforts to get domestic car makers here

541
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 15: to develop evs of their own, with advanced technology of

542
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 15: their own.

543
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 3: And of course we're talking just more than two weeks

544
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 3: before Trump's inauguration for his second term. I mean, what

545
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 3: is the mood music when it comes to the second

546
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:04,119
Speaker 3: Trump administration and China. Of course, being hawkish on China.

547
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,600
Speaker 3: That is sort of a bipartisan vibe that we have

548
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 3: going on here. But what would you imagine the Trump

549
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:12,439
Speaker 3: administration's response would be to action such as this?

550
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:16,320
Speaker 15: Well, okay, I think it's time to pull the lens

551
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:18,640
Speaker 15: back a little bit and see this in the broader

552
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:22,879
Speaker 15: context of the US China relationship on technology. The Biden

553
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 15: administration has been imposing restrictions on a lot of sensitive technology,

554
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:33,159
Speaker 15: and that includes exports of advanced semiconductor making equipment and

555
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,919
Speaker 15: also high bandwidth memory chipsy's are the two of the

556
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 15: most notable moves made by the US in recent months,

557
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 15: and those are designed to undercut Beijing's ability to stoke

558
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 15: a semiconductor manufacturing base of its own at an advanced

559
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 15: level and advanced enough to develop artificial intelligence that would

560
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,399
Speaker 15: help its military. And that's an advantage that the US

561
00:26:56,440 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 15: does not want to see developed by Beijing. And certainly

562
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 15: the Trump administration will not alter course on that, and

563
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 15: we will expect to see the Trump administration not only

564
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 15: embrace certain types of export controls applied by the Biden administration,

565
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 15: but perhaps try to expand them and look for ways

566
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 15: to retaliate as well, and try to maybe foster some

567
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 15: domestic investment in these areas as well.

568
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:26,120
Speaker 3: All Right, my great perspective, as always, that is Bloomberg's

569
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 3: Mike Sheppard joining us from Washington. Let's keep the conversation going,

570
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 3: because another story we're keeping an eye on is the

571
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,360
Speaker 3: future of H one B visas and America's tech industry

572
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:39,880
Speaker 3: under the new administration. Here's former US Representative Denver Riggleman

573
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 3: of Virginia weighing in on Elon Musk's influence on the matter.

574
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 3: He spoke with Bloomberg's Balance of Power co host Joe

575
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 3: Matthew earlier this week.

576
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd have lunch with Elon and Jlad.

577
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 16: I thought, what's going on with Elon Musk here? We're

578
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:54,359
Speaker 16: already seeing a little bit of a breakdown over the

579
00:27:54,520 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 16: H one B situation. Yeah, the Maga versus Musk situation tenuous. Well,

580
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 16: a year or two from now, will he still have

581
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:04,440
Speaker 16: the president's year?

582
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 17: No, no, no, I mean the thing about H one

583
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 17: B's what's interesting. You know, he's going again some really

584
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:12,439
Speaker 17: big packs on the far right, like Numbers USA and

585
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:14,199
Speaker 17: things like that. But for me, I'm an H one

586
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:17,400
Speaker 17: BH two, a an HTV supporter based on our district's

587
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:19,359
Speaker 17: very rural. But we also have a lot of technology

588
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:20,680
Speaker 17: in Virginia and the Commonwealth.

589
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 3: Let's bring in now ericson immigration group partner at HIBBA

590
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 3: ANDVERT joining us now. Great to have you with us.

591
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 3: And it's interesting because after you saw Elon Musk's comments

592
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 3: on social media over the holiday period, you had Donald

593
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 3: Trump kind of fall in line and voice his own

594
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 3: support for H one B Visas of course, it'll be

595
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 3: interesting to see if he sticks to that view as

596
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 3: we get deeper into his administration.

597
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 5: But give us some context here.

598
00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 3: We talk about H one B visas in the context

599
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 3: of the tech industry all the time.

600
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 5: What role do they play though?

601
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 18: So H one B visas actually play a very critical role.

602
00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 18: American companies are the most scessful companies in the world

603
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:04,959
Speaker 18: in a variety of industries and sectors, and part of

604
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 18: their success is attributed to their ability to hire the

605
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,320
Speaker 18: best and brightest from around the world. Now, the H

606
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 18: one B visa is one of the ways in which

607
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 18: companies are able to hire and retain talent from around

608
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 18: the world and remain competitive and global leaders in industries

609
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 18: ranging from technology to semiconductor to AI to the financial industry,

610
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 18: a variety of industries.

611
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 4: We know we have the first Trump administration to look

612
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 4: back to for data for context. You were kind of

613
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 4: have to share some numbers with our team ahead of this,

614
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 4: and you noted that the denial rate for these H

615
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 4: one B visas before Trump took office with six percent,

616
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 4: then it increased to an all time high of twenty

617
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:45,440
Speaker 4: four percent in twenty eighteen, then immediately dropped down to

618
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 4: four percent during Biden's first year in office. Can we

619
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 4: look to that happening again, or do you think this

620
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 4: time will be different given that Elon Musk has the

621
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 4: year of the president and he's so supportive of this

622
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 4: type of visa.

623
00:29:57,520 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 18: I think it remains to be seen whether or not

624
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 18: the second Trump administration is in any way going to

625
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 18: be different. Obviously, folks that are in the industry are

626
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 18: watching the way in which the Trump administration and the

627
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 18: immigration restrictionists reconcile with the fact that there are certain

628
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 18: tech leaders that are close to President Trump. But if

629
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 18: we have, you know, if basically what we have to

630
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 18: go on is what happened during the first Trump administration,

631
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 18: And to your point, the denial rates did increase to

632
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 18: an all time high, and then overall processing times increased,

633
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 18: and it was just more inefficient and difficult to obtain

634
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 18: the same visas for the foreign workers on the part

635
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 18: of a lot of these companies. And so what a

636
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 18: lot of us in the industry are watching is to

637
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 18: see whether or not there's going to be a repeat

638
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 18: of that the second time around.

639
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 4: Do you believe that within a short period of time,

640
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 4: say the next Trump administration, the US will be able

641
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 4: to put an infrastructure in place to actually train Americans

642
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 4: to do this type of work or did that ship sail.

643
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 18: Actually, what I think a lot of people don't realize

644
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 18: is that the H one V VISA program itself contains

645
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 18: protections that are designed just for that. The H one

646
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 18: B VISA program has numerous protections that are designed to

647
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 18: ensure that if a company is going to hire a

648
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 18: foreign worker, no harm is coming to a US worker.

649
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 18: There are also certain fees that need to be paid

650
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 18: to the government to a company that H one B filing.

651
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 18: The purpose of some of those fees is to be

652
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 18: able to fund the training of American workers. So I

653
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 18: think that the investment and training in the US workforce

654
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 18: is ongoing, and I think most people would be surprised

655
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 18: to learn that the H one B VISA petition actually

656
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 18: plays a role in that.

657
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 3: I want to talk too about the fact that you

658
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 3: have a lot of big tech leaders kind of coming

659
00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 3: to Mara a Lago and kind of kissing the ring

660
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 3: when it comes to Donald Trump, of course, and he

661
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 3: also is surrounded by the likes of Elon Musk and

662
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 3: other big supporters of the H one B VISA process.

663
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:50,760
Speaker 5: And we were talking about the fact that for now.

664
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 3: Donald Trump does seem to support the initiative despite what

665
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 3: we saw in the first term. What's your outlook for

666
00:31:58,000 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 3: whether that remains the case.

667
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:03,760
Speaker 18: So what I'm going to be watching out for is

668
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 18: a repeat of the first Trump administration, and what we're

669
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 18: ensuring is that companies that we work with are properly

670
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 18: prepared for some of the same things happening a second

671
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 18: time around. Honestly, I think it remains to be seen

672
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 18: the way that the tech leaders that are close to

673
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 18: President Trump reconcile with the folks that have a little

674
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 18: bit of a different stance when it comes to legal immigration.

675
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 18: I of course am optimistic and hoping that it's not

676
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 18: necessarily going to be an exact repeat, because if we

677
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 18: take a step back, I think folks will realize that

678
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 18: this is actually a economic win win on all sides.

679
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 18: In order for our companies to continue to be global leaders,

680
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 18: we need to be able to hire the best and

681
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 18: brightest from around the world, and the H one b

682
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:44,880
Speaker 18: V says a really important way in which we do that.

683
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,680
Speaker 2: Eric's an Immigration Group partner. He abat Enver. Thanks so

684
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 2: much for joining us. Do appreciate it coming up. But

685
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 2: we're going to be.

686
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:54,880
Speaker 4: Joined by Kathy Gal from Sapphire Ventures to share some

687
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 4: of the firm's predictions for AI in twenty twenty five.

688
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg, Well, the.

689
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 3: Race to AI enhanced human productivity is on. The coming

690
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 3: year will feature AI companies grappling with pushing out software

691
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 3: that can do more with less help from humans and

692
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 3: figuring out how to train the most powerful models. Bloomberg's

693
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 3: Rachel Metz has more on AI predictions for twenty twenty five. Rachel,

694
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 3: Happy New year to you. What can we expect from

695
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 3: the world of AI when it comes to the coming year.

696
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 9: I think we're going to see a couple of things.

697
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 9: One is a lot of focus on so called agents.

698
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 9: This would be systems that use AI to accomplish tasks,

699
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 9: either with no help or with just a little bit

700
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:54,400
Speaker 9: of help from humans. AI software that can go out

701
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 9: and do something like us, say, help you plan a trip,

702
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 9: or help you to process certain kinds of information more

703
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 9: efficiently in a more complicated way than just like looking

704
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:07,720
Speaker 9: over a document.

705
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:09,879
Speaker 13: So we've been talking to people a lot about that.

706
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:12,880
Speaker 9: One of the other things that we're probably going to

707
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 9: be seeing more hearing people talk more about is data.

708
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 9: Data Very clearly became a issue for a lot of

709
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 9: companies this year, not having more data if they want

710
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,800
Speaker 9: to train even more powerful systems than what they've already built.

711
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 9: So it'll be interesting to see how companies find new

712
00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 9: sources of data if they look at synthetic data, which

713
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 9: would be in some cases data that's generated by aisystems themselves.

714
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 4: Bloomberg's Rachel Metz out there in San Francisco. Got to

715
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 4: leave it there, Thanks Rachel, Well, JENNAI has been a

716
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 4: dominant force in tech in twenty twenty four, but also

717
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,280
Speaker 4: in VC, and it might remain that way in twenty

718
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:52,440
Speaker 4: twenty five. That's according to the venture capital firm Sapphire Ventures.

719
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,400
Speaker 4: Kathy Galo's partner at Sapphire Adventures, and she joins us

720
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 4: now to share some of the firm's predictions. Kathy, I

721
00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 4: want to start with something that Rachel said about this

722
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 4: being the year where we see more and more AI agents.

723
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 4: One of Sapphire Adventures predictions is that agents will begin

724
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:09,399
Speaker 4: to deliver on hype. I got to tell you Katie

725
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 4: Gridfield sitting right next to me, she's not impressed with

726
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 4: AI agents right now?

727
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 2: Is she going to be this year?

728
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 12: Well, that's a great question. I have to agree with Rachel.

729
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 12: I think you're going to start to see agents come

730
00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 12: into the scene in a very, very big way. In

731
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 12: many ways, the AI agent is a natural evolution of

732
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:30,719
Speaker 12: what we saw with AI copilots and AI chatbots. So

733
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 12: another example would be, whereas AI agents are able to

734
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 12: autonomously execute actions or entire workflows, chatboss and co pilots

735
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 12: were really more Q and A. And where I get

736
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:48,920
Speaker 12: really excited is the fact that if we can automate

737
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 12: entire workflows, that frees up so much human capacity to

738
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 12: do the more creative and more strategic work. Now that

739
00:35:56,680 --> 00:36:00,040
Speaker 12: being said, I do also agree with Katie right A

740
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 12: lot of the challenges with widespread adoption and implementation of

741
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:06,279
Speaker 12: agents will be in what I call kind of the

742
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:12,319
Speaker 12: blast mile problems. This is the governance, the privacy, the protections,

743
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:14,880
Speaker 12: the devils in the details, and that has yet to

744
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:15,320
Speaker 12: be seen.

745
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 2: Okay, agents.

746
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 4: One of your predictions, what about when it comes to

747
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,399
Speaker 4: AI generated video? Because twenty twenty four was the year

748
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 4: we saw a wider release of Sora from Open AI.

749
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 4: I think a lot of people were pretty impressed by that.

750
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:32,439
Speaker 4: How are we going to see AI generated video this year?

751
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:35,239
Speaker 12: I think we're going to see a lot of multimodal

752
00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:37,839
Speaker 12: in general, tim but we're going to see a lot

753
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 12: more video and we're going to see a lot more voice.

754
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 12: The models have been developing extremely rapidly. I don't know

755
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 12: if you guys have seen some of the recent AI

756
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:50,400
Speaker 12: generated videos from Sora and other video models, but they're incredible.

757
00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:53,319
Speaker 12: They are starting to feel a lot more lifelike. The

758
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:56,359
Speaker 12: latency is being reduced. The same goes with voice, So

759
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:59,400
Speaker 12: I think we're going to see much more widespread adoption

760
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:04,080
Speaker 12: as individual video and voice applications as well as full

761
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 12: multimodal applications, which means there will be voice, they'll be text,

762
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 12: there'll be video and images combined into one.

763
00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 3: Yeah. I've seen some of those videos and they're pretty creepy.

764
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 3: They're very realistic.

765
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:16,320
Speaker 19: Yess.

766
00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 5: So just if you call on Twitter or x.

767
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 3: Right now, you can find a whole bunch of them.

768
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:22,439
Speaker 3: But Kathy, I want to talk a little bit more

769
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:25,800
Speaker 3: about how companies might use AI in the year ahead

770
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:27,759
Speaker 3: because I speak to a lot of investors and they

771
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:30,239
Speaker 3: want to stay in the hardware space, investing in the

772
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 3: chip makers because they're not clear yet on how companies

773
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 3: will actually use AI and maybe actually boost productivity. Do

774
00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:40,800
Speaker 3: we get further along in that investment timeline in twenty

775
00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:41,359
Speaker 3: twenty five.

776
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:44,800
Speaker 12: That's such a great question, Katie. Well, let's talk about

777
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 12: what happened in twenty twenty four to set the stage

778
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 12: for what we think might happen in twenty twenty five.

779
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 12: In my view, twenty twenty four is a year where

780
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 12: Ai really went mainstream. Ninety two percent of the Fortune

781
00:37:57,040 --> 00:38:03,280
Speaker 12: five hundred adopted Jenai solutions internally and spent around fourteen

782
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 12: billion dollars on these solutions. But what's even more importantly,

783
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:13,720
Speaker 12: a lot of major companies, so think Walmart, JP, Morgan, Chase, Microsoft, Google,

784
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 12: all announced in their public earnings calls that they've had

785
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:23,840
Speaker 12: significant success in significant measurable ROI using their Genai projects internally.

786
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 12: So that gives me a lot of hope and confidence

787
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 12: that a budgets will continue to expand into twenty twenty five. Now,

788
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 12: the big question is can the hype turn into actual

789
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:39,719
Speaker 12: proof in a wide scale manner in twenty twenty five.

790
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 12: And in order to see that, we're going to have

791
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 12: to see more adoption amongst all the employees at a company,

792
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 12: not just within certain functions or certain specific projects, and

793
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:51,800
Speaker 12: we have to see more guidelines on how we actually

794
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 12: measure ROI.

795
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:55,800
Speaker 3: All right, Kathy, great to speak with you, looking forward

796
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,439
Speaker 3: to checking in as we get deeper into twenty twenty five.

797
00:38:58,440 --> 00:38:59,239
Speaker 5: That is Kathy Gal.

798
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:08,359
Speaker 3: She is partner over at Sapphire Ventures.

799
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:12,360
Speaker 4: Let's talk media deals because Paramount and Skuidance responded to

800
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 4: critics of their pending merger, arguing that the critics filings

801
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:19,439
Speaker 4: are defective and lack merit. The company's claim critics fail

802
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:21,919
Speaker 4: to show how they will be harmed by the deal

803
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:25,760
Speaker 4: and that some of the proposed measures are unconstitutional. Paramount

804
00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 4: agreed to merge with Skydance back in July, and the

805
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:32,360
Speaker 4: deal would make Skydance's founder David Ellison the controlling shareholder

806
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:35,720
Speaker 4: and CEO of Paramount. Now, let's take a little wider

807
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:37,960
Speaker 4: look into the world of entertainment and the box office

808
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 4: this coming year with Bloomberg's Chris Palmery, Chris, I want

809
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 4: to talk about the box office this year as well

810
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:46,040
Speaker 4: as what's happening with Paramount and Skuydance, because this is

811
00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 4: the deal that really, as you know, just never ends.

812
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:51,840
Speaker 4: What specifically did the critics do the critics have a

813
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:54,240
Speaker 4: problem with when it comes to this pending merger.

814
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:58,839
Speaker 20: Well, there was some sort of a smattering of opponents,

815
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 20: I guess most notably is a group that is challenging them.

816
00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 20: It's supposedly a nonpartisan political political group, but tends to

817
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 20: side with conservatives and saying that the you know, big

818
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:17,720
Speaker 20: media is biased and said that you know, CBS News

819
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 20: you know needs to you know, speak to everybody in

820
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:25,319
Speaker 20: the country, and that we actually got a conciliatory sort

821
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 20: of statement from them today saying that they liked what

822
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:31,080
Speaker 20: they heard in Paramounts filing yesterday to the FCC. So

823
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:33,240
Speaker 20: you know, that was one of the hurdles. We'll still

824
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 20: likely hear more from the FCC. Brendan car, the incoming chairman,

825
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:43,279
Speaker 20: is of early outspot on this issue of fairness in

826
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 20: the media, and that will be sort of the final

827
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:46,960
Speaker 20: hurdle probably for.

828
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:50,279
Speaker 3: Paramount so TVD what happens there. I will note that

829
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:54,320
Speaker 3: Paramount Chairs fell twenty nine percent last year. They actually

830
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:57,319
Speaker 3: haven't posted a positive year since twenty sixteen, Tim, so

831
00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:00,240
Speaker 3: some good news is needed for that company.

832
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:00,880
Speaker 5: We'll see.

833
00:41:00,960 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 3: I do want to talk about the box office though,

834
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 3: while we have you Chris because there's this frustration out

835
00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 3: there that I'm sure you're well acquainted with, is that

836
00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:11,600
Speaker 3: there's nothing original anymore. It's just all sequels and it's

837
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 3: reimaginations of old movies. Are we expecting more of the

838
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:17,080
Speaker 3: same in twenty twenty five?

839
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 13: Yes and no.

840
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:22,359
Speaker 20: There are certainly gonna be a lot of sequels. You know,

841
00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:27,359
Speaker 20: Mission Imposswell, Captain America Avatar, so we'll be plenty of that.

842
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:31,359
Speaker 20: There are a bunch of movies coming out f One

843
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 20: for example. Once it won't resonate until you start to

844
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:38,200
Speaker 20: see the ads, but original movies from all tour directors,

845
00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:42,280
Speaker 20: you know who may stand out. And that's why analysts

846
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:44,719
Speaker 20: are predicting that this year will be a little bit

847
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 20: better than last year. Still not back to the pre

848
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 20: pandemic levels, but you know, the potentially the best year

849
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:55,400
Speaker 20: for the box office since the pandemic.

850
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 4: You say, still not back to do we ever get

851
00:41:58,640 --> 00:41:59,839
Speaker 4: back to pre pandemic levels?

852
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 19: An I was saying, well, I mean if you look

853
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 19: at the actual attendance numbers, it is way down, I

854
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:09,440
Speaker 19: mean almost half the level of people going to the

855
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:10,600
Speaker 19: theaters that they used to.

856
00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:12,799
Speaker 20: I mean, ticket prices are up and that sort of

857
00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:13,799
Speaker 20: helps some of it.

858
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 2: More people are.

859
00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:18,400
Speaker 20: Going to these big screen at a higher price ticket formats,

860
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:22,840
Speaker 20: so that's helping the overall Fox office number. But yeah, no,

861
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:25,640
Speaker 20: Americans are definitely not going.

862
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:26,600
Speaker 13: To the movies like they used to.

863
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:30,320
Speaker 20: There's just so much alternatives online and in many cases

864
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:33,440
Speaker 20: that those movies come online in just a matter of weeks.

865
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:36,239
Speaker 3: All right, Chris, gott to leave it there. Really appreciate

866
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 3: your time. That is Bloomberg's Chris Paul Mary.

867
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:40,520
Speaker 2: Do you ever go to the movies?

868
00:42:40,600 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 3: I went to the movies on Christmas Day. I saw

869
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:44,719
Speaker 3: a Complete Unknown starring Timothy shell May.

870
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:45,239
Speaker 5: It was really good.

871
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:46,439
Speaker 2: Actually, that's the Bob Dylan one.

872
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:48,719
Speaker 5: Yeah, and I guess that is new.

873
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:50,920
Speaker 3: I mean, Bob Dylan's been alive for a while, but

874
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:53,200
Speaker 3: it's new content in any case.

875
00:42:53,320 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 5: That does it for this edition of Bloomberg Technology.

876
00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:58,600
Speaker 3: Next week, be Tech is heading out to see us

877
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:01,279
Speaker 3: in Las Vegas two in for conversations with some of

878
00:43:01,360 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 3: the biggest names in AI, chicks and more.

879
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 4: And don't forget to check out our podcast. You can

880
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:09,320
Speaker 4: find it on the terminal as well as online on Apple, Spotify,

881
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:11,520
Speaker 4: and iHeart This is Bloomberg