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Speaker 2: Let's get a little techie before you. The nasdas up
Speaker 2: fourteen points today. Not much going on out there, but
Speaker 2: there's a lot of news flow out there in the
Speaker 2: tech spaces, or typically is. And for that we like
Speaker 2: to check in with our buddy, Matthew Bloxam, Bloomberg Intelligence
Speaker 2: Senior technology Analysty covers a bunch of stuff and he
Speaker 2: does it from London.
Speaker 3: Hey Matt, thanks for joining us here. I mean Intel
Speaker 3: coming to the market.
Speaker 2: Here's another big tech company coming with a big equity raise.
Speaker 2: It seems like these guys have an a safeable need
Speaker 2: for capital.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I do, that's right. So what's fifteen billion dollars?
Speaker 4: Roughly three percent of the market cap, So it's not
Speaker 4: that big, but you know, I think still always a
Speaker 4: little bit surprising when these companies come to market for equity.
Speaker 4: You know, they raised I think six and a half
Speaker 4: billion dollars in debt earlier this year, fairly expensive coup
Speaker 4: points kind of four point sixty five percent through just
Speaker 4: six point two percent. So I guess you know they're
Speaker 4: looking to balance their capital needs across different parts of
Speaker 4: the balance sheet structure. Yeah, the valuation is pretty full
Speaker 4: right now, and if you look forward a couple of years,
Speaker 4: it's on fifty times earning. So I guess you're the
Speaker 4: management team take in the view that if there was
Speaker 4: ever a time to raise some equity, this is a
Speaker 4: relatively quote unquote cheap, cheap time.
Speaker 5: To do it.
Speaker 4: You know that they, along with everybody else, have quite
Speaker 4: substantial investment needs compared to some other big tech names.
Speaker 4: Their capex is pretty low, you know, probably about twenty
Speaker 4: billion dollars this year, maybe rising to twenty six billion
Speaker 4: dollars next year. But this gives them a good cash
Speaker 4: cushion to pursue the current projects, and who knows, perhaps
Speaker 4: even consider some acceleration of what they're doing.
Speaker 6: What about Meta This morning, they've just introduced a new
Speaker 6: AI model called news Glimmer. I guess it's an open
Speaker 6: source AI model meant to compete with the Chinese model
Speaker 6: deep Seek. It's up this morning. How do you feel
Speaker 6: about it?
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I think we're at a fairly early
Speaker 4: stage of how the whole AI foundational model play is
Speaker 4: going to evolve. Yeah, this is quite a different position
Speaker 4: to the likes of open AI and anthropic who work
Speaker 4: with closed models. Gemini at Google with geminis a little
Speaker 4: bit kind of mixed. Some open source models and some
Speaker 4: closed models have met a very much kind of penance
Speaker 4: fortunes to the flag of the open model, and you know,
Speaker 4: really trying to kind of make a big difference in
Speaker 4: markverg today in an essay being somewhat critical of some
Speaker 4: of its competitors, you're saying that really we should be
Speaker 4: democratizing AI and putting it in the hands.
Speaker 3: Of the user.
Speaker 4: So I think you're open to see how why you
Speaker 4: adopted this will be what it means for the kind
Speaker 4: of longer term economics. Both matter in the industry, but
Speaker 4: it's certainly an interesting move, and I think as much
Speaker 4: as anything, the language and the rhetoric that Zuckerberg is
Speaker 4: using around this push Matt.
Speaker 2: You know, it's as being in these markets for forty years,
Speaker 2: it's always surprised me in a negative sense. How Europe
Speaker 2: written large basically missed the whole technology revolution. All the
Speaker 2: tech is in the US and Asia and things like that.
Speaker 2: Is the same thing happening with AI. Well, Europe just
Speaker 2: kind of outsource it to other people and not participate.
Speaker 4: It does, unfortunately seem that way. You know, we have
Speaker 4: mistrale As I guess the most well known European AI model,
Speaker 4: but it sits in the shadows of the US and
Speaker 4: the Chinese alternatives. So yeah, you know, it's a perennial
Speaker 4: problem for the regional So there's a kind of big,
Speaker 4: really big introspective process going on right now about Europe
Speaker 4: twenty thirty five and what funding is needed to kind
Speaker 4: of really close the gap and genuinely make Europe competitive enough.
Speaker 4: The numbers are eyewatering, and even if the money was there,
Speaker 4: I think there's so many kind of structural and cultural
Speaker 4: issues about the way Europe works that are very serious
Speaker 4: obstacles have to get around, and all the time they're
Speaker 4: trying to figure those issues out, the US and China
Speaker 4: are running full steam ahead. So it does. I would
Speaker 4: think the base case scenario would be that Europe continues
Speaker 4: to be a taker of technology from other parts of
Speaker 4: the world.
Speaker 3: Stay with us.
Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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Speaker 3: I'm looking at Microsoft.
Speaker 2: This is a name Stacy, Tom and I, Tom Keen
Speaker 2: and I.
Speaker 3: For the longest time, we're saying just.
Speaker 2: You know, as of a week or two ago, why
Speaker 2: is this stock down twenty five percent year to date?
Speaker 3: This is Microsoft.
Speaker 2: I guess you was thrown out with a lot of
Speaker 2: those software stocks. I thought AI was going to put
Speaker 2: them out of business.
Speaker 3: But this is.
Speaker 6: Microsoft and Microsoft and it's one of the Magnificent seven.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you know, so sure enough, they put
Speaker 2: up a good print last week, good earnings, stocks erased,
Speaker 2: all those losses now up three or four percent on
Speaker 2: the year, five percent for the year.
Speaker 3: So how about that.
Speaker 2: More news out on Microsoft today. They're going to raise
Speaker 2: next gen AI chip production next year.
Speaker 3: It's pretty interesting. Let's according to the information.
Speaker 2: Anurag Rana joins this senior technost for Bloomberg Intelligence on Ron.
Speaker 2: It's really amazing how the market has kind of got
Speaker 2: a new appreciation I view for the Microsoft story that
Speaker 2: I think was really people were questioning and is Microsoft
Speaker 2: at risk from AI? How do you think about it?
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean you're absolutely right. There was that risk
Speaker 7: of disruption from some of its product from AI. But
Speaker 7: there was another risk. There was another narrative that when
Speaker 7: you look at the three hyper scale clout providers, Google,
Speaker 7: Amazon and Microsoft, Google's chip has just taken off. I
Speaker 7: mean their TPUs are all the rage in the market,
Speaker 7: and Amazon's actually come out with their own print that
Speaker 7: you know, they're making tens of billions of dollars with
Speaker 7: their own chip as well. So what happens is when
Speaker 7: you are looking at this fight of everybody expanding into
Speaker 7: AI data centers, they do need chips. They're all running
Speaker 7: to Nvidia, but two of the three providers talked about
Speaker 7: having their own chips. Now Microsoft was not in that
Speaker 7: game at that point. They have their own chip, but
Speaker 7: it's not widely embraced. But today's report when it talks
Speaker 7: about that they're going to go out and increase the
Speaker 7: production of their own chips, which means customers may be
Speaker 7: ready to use those and if that's the case, their
Speaker 7: cost of spending into that capital expenditure, you know, boom
Speaker 7: will start to go down in a sense, down on
Speaker 7: a relative basis or per token basis. So it's a
Speaker 7: very good news for them in the long run.
Speaker 6: Well Microsoft might be having a very good day, but
Speaker 6: Apple is having a pretty rotten day. What's going on
Speaker 6: with them? Apparently it has something to do with hardware
Speaker 6: not coming out the way that they're hoping.
Speaker 7: Uh no, I don't. I mean, I think that's a
Speaker 7: different somebody's downgrade. That's a different story. But when you
Speaker 7: look at Apple, and let's go back to that time
Speaker 7: period when when Paul talked about when Microsoft was down
Speaker 7: you know, twenty five percent or so over the year
Speaker 7: or you know, at that time, what was happening was
Speaker 7: everybody was worried about ROI on AI trade. This is
Speaker 7: before earning season. You know, you saw Google you So
Speaker 7: everybody was worried about them. But at the same time,
Speaker 7: everybody loved Apple because they were not spending that much money.
Speaker 7: But after the result, what has happened is people are
Speaker 7: relatively more comfortable going back to the AI trade or
Speaker 7: going after the risky assets. And given Apple's valuation where
Speaker 7: it was at that point, it was well in the thirties.
Speaker 7: We are seeing sums sell off on that and people
Speaker 7: buying more of you know, the AI trade. So I
Speaker 7: think there's a little bit of factor shifting there, not
Speaker 7: so much about one product or the other.
Speaker 2: To your clients, your investors in big tech companies do
Speaker 2: they like free cash flow and they upset if they
Speaker 2: don't get free cash flow.
Speaker 7: So two different things once that are looking at this
Speaker 7: massive capex going in, they're seeing what is the benefit
Speaker 7: of that for these companies. So if Microsoft was able
Speaker 7: to show you know, sequel chain improvement in as your
Speaker 7: sales growth, Amazon was able to show that. Google was
Speaker 7: able to show that, So I think they're getting a
Speaker 7: little more comfortable that these companies know what they're doing
Speaker 7: when they're spending you know, hundreds of billions of dollars
Speaker 7: at that time. The second group is somebody who doesn't
Speaker 7: want to be at part of this trade and say,
Speaker 7: you know what, I like Apple, I have plus billion
Speaker 7: dollars in free cash flow. Over there, they're buying back
Speaker 7: that stock. iPhone's doing well, it's gaining share in China.
Speaker 7: So there are I mean, you could say there are
Speaker 7: a couple of buckets of people who are looking at
Speaker 7: this trade from different lenses.
Speaker 6: What about in the hardware sector. Apparently there's a big
Speaker 6: smart watch lineup that's that's getting ready to be released.
Speaker 6: Obviously there's the folding phone everyone has been waiting for.
Speaker 6: How is that Apple looking in the in the hardware sector.
Speaker 7: So when you look at the watch itself, it doesn't
Speaker 7: move the needle for Apple. It's an accessity that goes
Speaker 7: with the phone along with it. I mean, you're not
Speaker 7: going to just buy a small a watch without being
Speaker 7: in the Apple ecosystem. That's a very unlikely thing. But
Speaker 7: one of the things Mark Erman's talked about it when
Speaker 7: you look at some of the other variables you look
Speaker 7: at you know, the Aura ring, which is just a
Speaker 7: phenomenal product right now for a lot of people to
Speaker 7: track their sleep. You're looking at products that are coming
Speaker 7: out in the market without a screen. Garment just launched one.
Speaker 7: I mean I've ordered it, but it's on backlock for me.
Speaker 7: When you you look at a woop, these are all
Speaker 7: bands that you could use to track a lot of
Speaker 7: these you know, sleeping and you know, just your normal
Speaker 7: vitals without the need of a screen oriented product, and
Speaker 7: that's what I think you're going to see down the road.
Speaker 7: But that, to be honest with you, does not move
Speaker 7: the needle. The foldable does. Because Apple's been behind. They
Speaker 7: don't have a foldable phone right now, and iPhone accounts
Speaker 7: for over fifty percent of Apple sales. So if they
Speaker 7: are able to come out with a foldable device, I
Speaker 7: think it's going to create a lot of buzz next year,
Speaker 7: especially in emerging markets where if people are not worried
Speaker 7: about the price of it, which Margoman thinks is going
Speaker 7: to be around twenty five hundred dollars. I think that's
Speaker 7: going to be a very very cool factor that we'll
Speaker 7: see within the next one month.
Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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Speaker 2: It seems like that's a quiet day, but there's a
Speaker 2: lot going on out there in the equity capital markets.
Speaker 3: Intel we started this morning. They're going to do sell
Speaker 3: fifteen billion dollars in common.
Speaker 2: Stock to fuel some of their AI demand. Boom got
Speaker 2: some IPO filings, We got some stocks I thought were
Speaker 2: meme stocks. I'm not sure if they still are, but
Speaker 2: we had Billy Lipschultz and to kind of explain it
Speaker 2: all to us, Billy Lipschutz, Bloomberg.
Speaker 3: News senior equities reporter.
Speaker 2: First was game Stop's potential bid was fifty six billion
Speaker 2: dollars for eBay?
Speaker 3: Was that ever considered real legit?
Speaker 5: It was always kind of laughed at, really speaking what
Speaker 5: I was doing. It was. It was It was a
Speaker 5: market I don't want to matter too much, but it
Speaker 5: was basically seen by most on Wall Street is kind
Speaker 5: of a marketing campaign from Ryan Cohen, who is the
Speaker 5: now head of game Stop. He was a big driver
Speaker 5: between behind that twenty twenty one memestock Mania round game Stop,
Speaker 5: becoming the largest shareholder, one of the larger shareholders leading
Speaker 5: the company. He was a co founder of Chewy, made
Speaker 5: his name through that. So I was broadly seen as
Speaker 5: kind of a interesting thought, but resoundingly rejected by eBay
Speaker 5: back in May. He said he was going to come
Speaker 5: for him one way or another, and ultimately, according to
Speaker 5: our reporting, now considering pulling that bid.
Speaker 6: Why does game stop want eBay? I mean, the market
Speaker 6: seem quite disappointed this didn't happen or isn't going to
Speaker 6: happen potentially.
Speaker 5: Well, the big debate always was, you want to make
Speaker 5: a fifty six billion dollar takeover when you have a
Speaker 5: market value of eight billion dollars and you have cash
Speaker 5: and equivalents of eight billion dollars. So there's a huge
Speaker 5: gap you have to bridge at some point. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 5: you know, if you work on Wall Street, there there
Speaker 5: are levers you can pull. But the reason I think
Speaker 5: we're seeing eBay shares down a little bit again is
Speaker 5: just given kind of that option, the call option potential
Speaker 5: of this being something that could work out. Cohen basically
Speaker 5: has really been vocal and bashing eBay management, talking up
Speaker 5: the potential synergies that they could see. Again eBay downplayed
Speaker 5: those banker or analysts were really like two billion dollars
Speaker 5: in propose, Energy still feels like a bridge too far
Speaker 5: on the potential merger. This is a company that Cohen
Speaker 5: has been either publicly leading or behind the scenes leading
Speaker 5: for quite some time, and the big question has been
Speaker 5: what does it actually look like? What do you look
Speaker 5: like if you're a game retailer in an era where
Speaker 5: people download games.
Speaker 3: All right?
Speaker 2: Data center company Switch good name filed confidentially for a USIPO.
Speaker 3: What do we know about Switch?
Speaker 5: Data center rates are hot? Anything around data center's hot.
Speaker 5: We had reported back in July early July the company
Speaker 5: was kicking off a private funding round led by Anderson
Speaker 5: Horowitz that would raise two billion dollars equity value or
Speaker 5: enterprise value excuse me, approaching fifty billion dollars. So our
Speaker 5: reporting that they filed confidentially on Friday working with BAA City,
Speaker 5: Goldman JP, and Morgan Stanley the who's who, and that
Speaker 5: that funding round was either complete or near complete, and
Speaker 5: that Ben Horowitz, co founder of Anderson Horowitz, would be
Speaker 5: joining the board. So now the big question is, as
Speaker 5: we reported targeting in November IPO, how quickly does that
Speaker 5: come together? Will the market's still be there? And if
Speaker 5: you're doing a two billion dollar private raise, IPO is
Speaker 5: probably going to be much larger, all right?
Speaker 6: Well, apparently a Form Labs, which makes three D printers,
Speaker 6: is also in early talks with potential advisors for an IPO.
Speaker 6: Talk about that business. The three D printer business is
Speaker 6: that A is that like a big is that the
Speaker 6: next big thing?
Speaker 5: Three D printing was all the rage, and I want
Speaker 5: to say in twenty and twenty one, everyone.
Speaker 3: My public old son was doing probably still is doing,
Speaker 3: and that was.
Speaker 5: That was the big push. You just look at three
Speaker 5: D Systems trades under the ticker GDD. It hit its
Speaker 5: peak at fifty five bucks if you have trades for
Speaker 5: less than four right now. So the time had been
Speaker 5: much hotter in twenty and twenty one. But form Labs
Speaker 5: backed by soft Bank did have bankers come in for
Speaker 5: a bake off. We have at least one person saying
Speaker 5: they should target a raise of about five hundred million dollars.
Speaker 5: The big question comes back to they are profitable and
Speaker 5: they are soft bank company, is so what problems are
Speaker 5: you solving for?
Speaker 3: Why are you going public?
Speaker 5: SoftBank has a number of needs and if you're a
Speaker 5: three D printer company, could be interesting to just see
Speaker 5: if you want to scale. They did announce that they
Speaker 5: had annual revenue north of two hundred and fifty million dollars.
Speaker 2: Tom from the Upper East Side writes in and asks
Speaker 2: for a space X quote, one hundred and thirty three
Speaker 2: bucks are getting close back to that IPO price a
Speaker 2: one thirty five. What does that mean for kind of
Speaker 2: the IPO market in general?
Speaker 5: The broader sentiment has become mixed, partly because SpaceX traded blow,
Speaker 5: partly because ske Highnix, the largest non US company listing
Speaker 5: here with their record fundraising, trays a lot like an EKG.
Speaker 5: The big question now is we are expecting Anthropic to
Speaker 5: go public September October timeframe. How can the market digest
Speaker 5: and write down another you know, large ipo open AI
Speaker 5: kind of waiting in the wings potentially early next year.
Speaker 5: We're an IPO market that still is hot but very
Speaker 5: much can be touch and go, and SpaceX kind of
Speaker 5: is emblematic of that. Again one point thirty three now
Speaker 5: just south of one thirty five, but popped up like
Speaker 5: fifty percent.
Speaker 3: Do we have any sense of that?
Speaker 2: Insider shares that were eligible to be sold last week?
Speaker 2: Do we know what happened with those? Did anybody actually
Speaker 2: sell their shares?
Speaker 3: Or do we know?
Speaker 5: Well, we won't know because normally you would know if
Speaker 5: a if an investor owns more than five percent, they
Speaker 5: have to file elon Musk is the main one, and
Speaker 5: then valor who's taken on their own Share Sale Project
Speaker 5: and then Google are the only three according to our
Speaker 5: data who would have to file for that. So a
Speaker 5: lot of this could be happening behind the scenes. But
Speaker 5: when you see a stock rally like it has after
Speaker 5: the lock up expired, it's broadly seen as either a
Speaker 5: short covering investors were hoping for more of a kind
Speaker 5: of dash to the exits, or be just simply insiders
Speaker 5: not rushing to sell.
Speaker 2: Stay with us more from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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Speaker 3: Or Sure Hathaway.
Speaker 2: They had their investor kind of meeting. Yes story, they
Speaker 2: reported some earnings over the weekend. They tend to do
Speaker 2: for some reason. Matthew Palasoll it's his job to figure
Speaker 2: all this stuff out for Sea's Insurance, sent once for
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence. So the headline Matt I'm seeing on the
Speaker 2: Bloomberg terminal is new CEO Greg Abel, You're spending some
Speaker 2: money here. So what he's doing and how that may
Speaker 2: be a little bit different from mister Buffett.
Speaker 8: So yeah, he's opening up the checkbook a little bit.
Speaker 8: Berkshire still has incredible amounts of cash that is still undeployed,
Speaker 8: but we expected them to buy back some shares in
Speaker 8: the quarter. There was some disclosures made by Buffett around
Speaker 8: his ownership that gave us a clue. We thought it
Speaker 8: would be more, but essentially what happened is some of
Speaker 8: that was pushed through to the third quarter, so it
Speaker 8: was about four and a half billion of buybacks. We
Speaker 8: thought it was a wide range, but we thought it
Speaker 8: could be anywhere from five to twelve or thinking maybe
Speaker 8: it was like eight. Turns out, they did four and
Speaker 8: a half in the quarter and then at least another
Speaker 8: three in July, so kind of close to what we thought,
Speaker 8: but it's just more spread out through the quarters. Couple
Speaker 8: with that, Bertie was a net buyer of stocks for
Speaker 8: the first time in several years. They might have been
Speaker 8: a net buyer of stocks in the first quarter as well,
Speaker 8: but what they had done was they unwound a bunch
Speaker 8: of positions by one of the former managers investment managers
Speaker 8: who had left, so they sold a lot of his
Speaker 8: positions and they bought some, but it ended that they
Speaker 8: sold more than they bought. But in the second quarter
Speaker 8: they bought more than they sold. And there's about twelve
Speaker 8: billion dollars worth of stock or stocks that they bought
Speaker 8: that we don't know what it is yet. They'll be
Speaker 8: a thirteen f next week that will perhaps see Sometimes
Speaker 8: they hold things confidential, but if not, we'll get some
Speaker 8: more color on what if it was new positions or
Speaker 8: added to existing ones.
Speaker 6: I mean, they have such a legendary reputation for knowing
Speaker 6: where things are headed, especially knowing positions that other people
Speaker 6: don't necessarily take. Do we have any idea of what
Speaker 6: they're buying or what they're bullish on?
Speaker 8: So I could say this. In the first quarter they
Speaker 8: started a new position in Delta. Really so yes, and
Speaker 8: Buffett has had a history with the airlines, and the
Speaker 8: first quarter they did Delta. Their airline related businesses that
Speaker 8: they own have been showing some acceleration.
Speaker 3: So I don't know.
Speaker 8: I can't say if I agree or disagree with them
Speaker 8: doing that, but you know, perhaps that's something to think about.
Speaker 8: They also made an acquisition. We didn't talk about an
Speaker 8: acquisition in the first quarter that will pay in the
Speaker 8: third for Tyler home business that is a compliment to
Speaker 8: their existing business. So they own a business that builds
Speaker 8: manufactured homes. So they build a home and then they
Speaker 8: bring it to you. This company they bought six point
Speaker 8: eight billion I believe was the number. They build homes
Speaker 8: on site, and it's more higher end than the business
Speaker 8: they own. So they like to be in these essential businesses.
Speaker 8: So home building homes, you know, we're going to need homes,
Speaker 8: is home demand. Airlines going to need airline demand. Energy
Speaker 8: always energy demand. So those would be maybe three places
Speaker 8: that I would say would be potential clues.
Speaker 2: And speaking of Delta, I'm just looking at the holder's
Speaker 2: page for Delta. They bought a forty million share block.
Speaker 2: They're now the number three shareholder in the company, six
Speaker 2: percent position, So they got in there in a big way.
Speaker 2: I say, if they want to deploy capital, just invest
Speaker 2: in AI data centers and stuff. Well, the people spending
Speaker 2: tens of billions you know at a clip here.
Speaker 8: They also made this year two investments in Google so
Speaker 8: or Alphabet that was initiated by Buffett apparently, so he's
Speaker 8: still working. He's still the chairman, he's still working with
Speaker 8: greg Abel. That position was initiated by Buffett. They bought
Speaker 8: Open Market, and then they did as part of Google's
Speaker 8: equity raise, they did ten billion dollars in that as well.
Speaker 8: So that's a place in the quarter.
Speaker 2: Is there any reason to believe greg Abel's going to
Speaker 2: purely change the cash return policies? Let's just say the
Speaker 2: day after Warren passes, should we expect to see a
Speaker 2: policy shift.
Speaker 3: Maybe so.
Speaker 8: I think Abel is much more Buffett was older, getting old,
Speaker 8: stepping away. I don't think he was up for any
Speaker 8: material changes. He was never a fan of dividends. Greg
Speaker 8: is very much cognizant of keeping the the ethos of
Speaker 8: Berkshire alive. So I don't think he wants to do
Speaker 8: anything that directly contradicts Buffett immediately. I do think over time, though,
Speaker 8: with so much extra capital, maybe a special dividend every
Speaker 8: once in a while or something like that. I think
Speaker 8: it's possible.
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