1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:07,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the 3 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors 4 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 2: all around the world, and straight ahead on the program, 5 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 2: a look ahead to what Donald Trump's campaign promises will 6 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 2: mean for the US economy once he's sworn in. I'm 7 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:25,640 Speaker 2: Tom Busby in New York. 8 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 3: I'm Caroline Hetger in London, where we're looking ahead to 9 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 3: the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in DeVos. 10 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:35,319 Speaker 4: I'm Doug Christner looking at how China is gearing up 11 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 4: for the incoming Trump administration. 12 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 1: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 13 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:46,160 Speaker 1: eleven to three year, New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, 14 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg ninety two to nine, Boston, DAB Digital Radio, London, Syrias, 15 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 1: XM one twenty one, and around the world on Bloomberg Radio, 16 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 1: dot Com and the Bloomberg Business app. 17 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 5: Good day to you. 18 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:05,160 Speaker 2: I'm Tom Busby, and we begin today's program with the 19 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 2: inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the US, because 20 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 2: he officially takes office for the second time on Monday. 21 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 2: For more on what Trump two point zero means for 22 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:17,400 Speaker 2: the US economy and geopolitics in general. We're joined by 23 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 2: Joe Matthew Bloomberg Balance of Power co hosts. Well, Joe, 24 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 2: mm hmm, Well, let's start with what Donald Trump has 25 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 2: promised to do on day one of his new administration. 26 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 2: A lineup of executive orders. What are we going to see? 27 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 6: Well, it's a long list, Tom, get your sharpy out, 28 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 6: because he's going to be pushing a lot of paper, 29 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 6: it sounds like, and you're right. We'll have the inaugural, 30 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:40,039 Speaker 6: The process will last a few hours. They have the 31 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:42,960 Speaker 6: parade and so forth, and then Donald Trump moves into 32 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 6: the Oval office, and he's made a lot of promises 33 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 6: for day one. It's a little bit difficult to really 34 00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 6: predict exactly what will be involved in those couple of hours, 35 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 6: but we know there will be a series of executive 36 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 6: orders eos as they call them here, maybe even exceeding 37 00:01:56,800 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 6: one hundred of them. Tom. They'll be aimed at the border. 38 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 6: We've certainly heard that from Donald Trump on the campaign 39 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,560 Speaker 6: trail and since the election. The President elect is promising 40 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 6: to shut down the border in his words, and there 41 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 6: is a lot of talk in Washington a lot of 42 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 6: reporting that he will invoke Title forty two, that covid 43 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 6: era rule that was used to close the border in 44 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 6: his first term, something that the Biden administration lifted. There 45 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 6: could be executive orders on mass deportation, of course, something 46 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:26,960 Speaker 6: that we've heard a lot about. As he says on 47 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 6: day one, whether it takes effect on day one, we'll see. 48 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 6: But beyond that, we could see maybe some things reversing 49 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 6: some Biden rules and laws potentially that were passed. They 50 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:39,679 Speaker 6: want to strip back at least components for instance of 51 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 6: the IRA the Inflation Reduction Act. And then let's remember 52 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 6: the war in Ukraine. To Donald Trump had said all 53 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:48,120 Speaker 6: through the campaign that on day one he could do 54 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 6: this in the first day, basically with one phone call, 55 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 6: get them both in a room, and he could get 56 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:54,639 Speaker 6: it done to end the war in Ukraine, which would 57 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:56,800 Speaker 6: be remarkable. I'm not sure we should expect that, but 58 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 6: I would expect to see paper on that and potentially 59 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:01,799 Speaker 6: announcement of a meeting with Vladimir Putin. 60 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 2: Oh, that's a full full house, that's one day. Yeah, 61 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 2: that's right, right. Well, you know, Trump is walking into 62 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 2: a pretty good economy. We saw just last week resilient spending. 63 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:16,799 Speaker 2: During December, we have a very solid job market, wages up, 64 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 2: but conversely stubbornly high inflation. The housing market very troubled. 65 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 2: You know, I don't know when we're going to get 66 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 2: out of that. Rates are above seven percent now, a 67 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:28,920 Speaker 2: lot of income equality, inequality. So what do you think 68 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,920 Speaker 2: Trump is planning? How will he address those issues? 69 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 7: Well, it's interesting. 70 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 6: We were listening to Scott Besson, his pick for Treasury Secretary, 71 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:38,680 Speaker 6: in his confirmation hearing just a couple of days ago, 72 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 6: and he's going to be the one carrying the message 73 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 6: on a lot of this. And we've had a chance 74 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:44,440 Speaker 6: to talk with Scott Bessen, so we do have a 75 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 6: sense of what Donald Trump wants to do. And it 76 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:49,119 Speaker 6: begins with, by the way, going back to day one, 77 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:51,880 Speaker 6: this is going to be likely another executive order where 78 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 6: Donald Trump says drill, baby, drill. That literally his approach 79 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 6: to inflation is to get to energy prices. He's had 80 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 6: a promise to increase specifically crude oil in terms of 81 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 6: supplies by three million barrels a day, but overall he says, drill, baby, drill, 82 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 6: will lower energy cost by half. That's a tall order 83 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 6: and it would likely require a weakened economy to see 84 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:18,359 Speaker 6: oil and gas prices fall by fifty percent. But he 85 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:22,039 Speaker 6: sees that with energy being the feed stock for our economy, 86 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 6: as the conduit to lower inflation. Whether that is a 87 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 6: real plan, whether it works has yet to be seen, 88 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 6: because we also know that Donald Trump wants to make 89 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:33,040 Speaker 6: permanent the so called Trump tax cuts from twenty seventeen, 90 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 6: and couple that with across the board tariffs. Now, when 91 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:39,320 Speaker 6: you put that whole picture together, Scott Bessett would say 92 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:43,039 Speaker 6: that that mosaic is the antidote to inflation. When you 93 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 6: take each one in a vacuum, most economists would tell 94 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 6: you that they are potentially inflationary. And the economists that 95 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 6: we have spoken with have been very skeptical of this plan. 96 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 6: We're going to find out tom in real time whether 97 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:55,719 Speaker 6: it works. 98 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:59,240 Speaker 2: Well, especially those tariffs. And you know, he campaigned on 99 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 2: punishing tariffs ten to twenty percent, our biggest trading partners, 100 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 2: Canada and Mexico sixty percent more. You know on imports 101 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 2: from China. Has that softened? I mean there are reports 102 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:14,040 Speaker 2: of maybe a slower rollout than ramping up. 103 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 6: That's right, and that was a bloomberg scoop. By the way, 104 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:21,680 Speaker 6: interesting when you're running, how the language changes when you're governing. 105 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:24,039 Speaker 6: It's a different world sometimes when you're dealing with the 106 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 6: realities and you have world leaders on the phone. We 107 00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 6: certainly know what the reaction has been from Canada, very 108 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:33,279 Speaker 6: different reaction from Mexico. China's a different matter, and our 109 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 6: of course, our European allies are too. Everyone's been on 110 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:38,840 Speaker 6: the phone with mar A Lago, if not actually traveling 111 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 6: there in person to talk about this. And yes, it 112 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:45,239 Speaker 6: does seem like there could be a phasing, if you will, 113 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:47,480 Speaker 6: maybe a couple percent at a time in tariffs, if 114 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 6: that's what Donald Trump wants to do. The confusion will 115 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:54,840 Speaker 6: be for the Federal Reserve. How do you forecast anything 116 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 6: in a world like that, not knowing where tariffs will 117 00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:59,679 Speaker 6: be month to month, quarter to quarter when you start 118 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 6: fact in the impact it will have on the economy. 119 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 2: And speaking of the Federal Reserve in his last administration, 120 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 2: very critical the person he appointed, Jerome Powell, that's right. 121 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:14,360 Speaker 2: Do you think his tenor do you think what he 122 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:17,919 Speaker 2: does is going to change? In his Trump two point zero. 123 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:20,679 Speaker 6: It might be even more aggressive. Keep your eyes on truth, 124 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 6: social and Twitter or whatever platform he decides. You know, 125 00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:25,240 Speaker 6: we used to wake up every morning to see what 126 00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:27,800 Speaker 6: the policy was based on what was tweeted at two am. 127 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:31,719 Speaker 6: That may well be the case now. The aforementioned Scott Bessen, 128 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 6: his likely Treasury Secretary, is the one who floated the 129 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 6: idea of a shadow FED share, which would potentially kneecap 130 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:41,919 Speaker 6: the current FED share. I'm not sure that's something that 131 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,400 Speaker 6: would happen, and I'm not sure that Donald Trump will 132 00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 6: have the influence he wants to have on j. Powell, 133 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:49,320 Speaker 6: but he is certainly going to be a vocal member 134 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 6: of the chorus here when it comes to interest rates. 135 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:54,760 Speaker 2: Oh you bet our thanks to Joe Matthew Bloomberg Balance 136 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 2: of Power co hosts, and a lot to look forward 137 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 2: to this coming week. We move next to corporate earning 138 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 2: from the streaming giant Netflix out on Tuesday for more 139 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:06,760 Speaker 2: on how that company has been impacted by new content 140 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:09,840 Speaker 2: and it's foray into live sports. Were joined by Getha 141 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 2: raganathin Bloomberg Intelligence analyst on US Media. Well, Githa, Well, 142 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 2: let me just start with the results that you expect 143 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 2: to see for the fourth quarter from Netflix. 144 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:23,920 Speaker 8: Sure, Tom, so this is actually going to be, you know, 145 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 8: in many ways, kind of a very you know, significant 146 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 8: quarter for Netflix. And I say that because this is 147 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 8: the very last time in their history that they will 148 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 8: be reporting subscriber metrics. So it makes it kind of 149 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 8: special because as you know, you know, Netflix is really 150 00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 8: a subscriber story. I think they're actually going to have 151 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 8: an extremely strong quarter. They're pricing in one of their 152 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 8: best content cycles. You know, they have had huge pieces 153 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:54,560 Speaker 8: of content, a lot of them actually sports related, that 154 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 8: have performed extremely well, and so we think that that 155 00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 8: will be a huge driver of subscriber ads during the quarter. 156 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 8: So consensus right now is close to nine million, nine 157 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 8: million new subscribers. We're thinking it'll actually go well into 158 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 8: the double digits, maybe closer to about eleven or twelve 159 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 8: million subscribers. But again, remember this is the last time 160 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 8: that they're reporting subscribers, so investors are definitely going to 161 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 8: focus on what the next big thing will be. So 162 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 8: what are the other metrics that we need to focus 163 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 8: on going forward? 164 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 2: So up to double digits. It was five million in 165 00:08:26,080 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 2: the third quarter, and this could double that new subscribers. 166 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 2: Do you see a lot of that signing up because 167 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:33,280 Speaker 2: of the ad supported tier or the paid sharing tier. 168 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:36,920 Speaker 8: Well, absolutely, I think the ad supported tier definitely is 169 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 8: accounting for a lot of those new signups. Netflix actually 170 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 8: did give us a statistic in the third quarter. They 171 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:45,560 Speaker 8: said that it accounts for about fifty percent of all 172 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:47,960 Speaker 8: of the new signups in the markets where that option 173 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 8: is available. So it's definitely, I think a pretty big 174 00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 8: success story for Netflix. And of course the paid sharing initiative, 175 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:57,560 Speaker 8: which is you know, cracking down on password sharing, has 176 00:08:57,559 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 8: obviously been responsible for you know, the thirty million new 177 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 8: subscriber ads that we've seen so far, you know, in 178 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:09,479 Speaker 8: twenty twenty four. So definitely both those have been huge contributors. 179 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:12,320 Speaker 8: But then I think the biggest piece really is is 180 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 8: the content. Every Time you have huge pieces of content, 181 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 8: whether it's you know, Mike Tyson versus Jake Paul, whether 182 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 8: it's the NFL games or even you know, the second 183 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:23,720 Speaker 8: season of Squid Game, which is by far their most 184 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 8: watched television series ever, you know, those are all going 185 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:29,960 Speaker 8: to be huge drivers of subscriber acquisition. 186 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about that live sports strategy. A lot 187 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 2: of glitches on that fight you mentioned Tyson Jake Paul, 188 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:39,080 Speaker 2: but it looks like Netflix figured out what went wrong 189 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:42,000 Speaker 2: in time for those NFL games on Christmas Day, right. 190 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 8: Oh, absolutely so, yes, lots of glitches in their you know, 191 00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:49,319 Speaker 8: first big I guess live events for a but they 192 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 8: have figured it out. You're absolutely right, because remember it's 193 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 8: not just the NFL games on Christmas Day. They've also 194 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 8: been streaming WWE content starting January. So we've already had 195 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 8: two Mondays where you've had kind of Netflix takeover, you know, 196 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:07,080 Speaker 8: the raw programming, and it's gone off I would say 197 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 8: fairly well without a glitch. So they definitely have it 198 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 8: figured out from a technology perspective, and just kind of 199 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 8: thinking of, you know, the viewership and the numbers we've saw. 200 00:10:14,679 --> 00:10:16,960 Speaker 8: We saw some really really strong numbers. So for the 201 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 8: Tyson Paul match, for instance, there were sixty million households 202 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 8: across the globe that streamed that event, so close to 203 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 8: almost one hundred and ten million viewers. You know, that's 204 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:30,840 Speaker 8: kind of comparable to the reach of broadcast television. And 205 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 8: then if you take the NFL games, you know, they 206 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 8: reported about twenty six point five million viewers for each 207 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:40,200 Speaker 8: of those games, which is exactly what it was on 208 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:43,360 Speaker 8: broadcast television last year. So they've kind of proved that 209 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 8: they can replicate the same model, the TV model on 210 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 8: a streaming platform. 211 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 2: Now, Netflix already has that deal that WWE deal with 212 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:55,199 Speaker 2: TKO Group, and it looks like they're in the running 213 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 2: to secure another of TKO's properties, Ultimate Fighting Championship Ball 214 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 2: right now on ESPN ESPN Plus. How important would that 215 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 2: be for Netflix or is it just the next step 216 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 2: for them? 217 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:10,800 Speaker 8: It could be very important, Tom, and it definitely is 218 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:13,560 Speaker 8: the next step. I mean, remember, ultimately they are looking 219 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 8: to build this business, and the new metrics that are 220 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 8: going to be really important for them now that subscribers, 221 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 8: the number of subscribers is going away, is really going 222 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:24,079 Speaker 8: to be revenue growth. So the two numbers that I 223 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 8: think investors are going to now be hyper focused on 224 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 8: is are they posting you know, double digit revenue growth, 225 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 8: so ten plus percent revenue growth, and are they posting 226 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 8: strong operating income growth? So the number again that we're 227 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 8: looking for is twenty percent plus operating income growth. And 228 00:11:38,600 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 8: for that it's really important that they have these type 229 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 8: of events in order to kind of drive that buzz, 230 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 8: in order to drive you know, subscriber numbers. But more 231 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 8: importantly for them, advertising is going to become a bigger 232 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:54,840 Speaker 8: chunk of revenue, and they need to have live events 233 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:58,199 Speaker 8: to appeal to advertisers, and so I absolutely think that 234 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:00,079 Speaker 8: they're going to go after it. We already know that 235 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 8: UFC is demanding something like a doubling of its current 236 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:06,079 Speaker 8: rights fees from ESPN, so we'll see how that goes. 237 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 8: But I think Netflix will definitely want to go after 238 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 8: that as well. 239 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:13,520 Speaker 2: Oh, it's big, and is there any talk of price hikes? 240 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 8: So we have actually been expecting price hikes for quite 241 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 8: a while now, so they haven't done anything for over 242 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:25,080 Speaker 8: two years, which is really uncharacteristic for Netflix. So a 243 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:28,959 Speaker 8: price hike I would definitely say is overdue in the US, 244 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 8: at least on the standard plan, which right now costs 245 00:12:31,880 --> 00:12:35,560 Speaker 8: fifteen dollars and fifty cents. It's still a little bit 246 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:39,160 Speaker 8: of a wait and watch, but they haven't mentioned anything, 247 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 8: but we definitely think it is something that's going to 248 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 8: happen in twenty twenty five. 249 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 2: Well we'll look for that. Q four earning from Netflix 250 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 2: out this Tuesday are thanks to get the raganathin Bloomberg 251 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:52,120 Speaker 2: Intelligence Analysts on US Media and coming up on Bloomberg 252 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:54,280 Speaker 2: day Break weekend, we'll look ahead to the annual meeting 253 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:58,679 Speaker 2: of the World Economic Forum in Davos. I'm Tom Busby 254 00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:12,320 Speaker 2: and this is bloom This is Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, our 255 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 2: global look ahead at the top stories for investors in 256 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 2: the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York. Up 257 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:20,439 Speaker 2: later in our program a look at whether incoming President 258 00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 2: Donald Trump will make good on his threats regarding China. 259 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:27,000 Speaker 2: But first, leaders from across the globe descending on the 260 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 2: sleepy Swiss mountain resort of Davos for the annual meeting 261 00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 2: of the World Economic Forum this week. It's where the 262 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:35,719 Speaker 2: world's most powerful meet to address the pressing issues of 263 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 2: the day, and this year, conflict is at the top 264 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 2: of the agenda, with war anxiety racking the nerves of 265 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:45,160 Speaker 2: expert surveyed ahead of discussions for more. Let's go to 266 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:49,000 Speaker 2: London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak, Europe anchor Caroline Hepgar. 267 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:53,560 Speaker 3: State based armed conflict is the biggest worry for this year. 268 00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:57,000 Speaker 3: That's according to the World Economic Forums twenty twenty five 269 00:13:57,080 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 3: Global Risks Report, which has been released head of the 270 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:04,800 Speaker 3: organization's elite gathering in Davos. The findings provide the mood 271 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:08,319 Speaker 3: music for an event where world leaders mingle with business 272 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:13,320 Speaker 3: executives among a total tally of some three thousand participants. 273 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 3: But that grim assessment of global security evident in the 274 00:14:17,920 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 3: report suggests that any sense of safety provided by the 275 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:27,120 Speaker 3: thousands of Swiss police and military personnel patrolling in freezing 276 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 3: temperatures outside can't be taken for granted. Elsewhere, worries about 277 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 3: geopolitical instability are followed by concerns about extreme weather events 278 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 3: and the prevalence of misinformation and disinformation. So it looks 279 00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 3: like it's going to be a pretty somber gathering with 280 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 3: some serious issues brought to the table. I've been speaking 281 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 3: to Bloomberg's Jumana Bisecchi about what else we can expect 282 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 3: from Davos twenty twenty five. 283 00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 9: Well, you talk about dusting off my warm clothes, they'll 284 00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 9: definitely to does stuff my warm clothes coming from Dubai. 285 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 9: But look that the World Economic Forum's most well known events. 286 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 9: It's an annual meeting that takes place in the Swiss Alps. 287 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:13,200 Speaker 9: Typically it's a forum for debate, for dialogue, to discuss 288 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 9: some of the biggest issues of the day and to 289 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 9: think about some of the solutions to these problems. So 290 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 9: every year they set a theme. The theme for this 291 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 9: year is a call for Collaboration in the Intelligent Age. 292 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 9: That is the title of this year's forum, and I 293 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 9: think the clue is in the title. On one hand, 294 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 9: there's a lot of excitement about this intelligent age, the 295 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 9: huge technological advances the world is witnessing, like artificial intelligence, 296 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 9: smart energy solutions. But then also that word collaboration is 297 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,360 Speaker 9: perhaps and not to the fact that some of the 298 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 9: world's existing multilateral order has broken down because of rising 299 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:51,480 Speaker 9: geopolitical tensions, a fracturing of global chest, fragmentation, and the 300 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 9: climate crisis. 301 00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:56,040 Speaker 3: There's always so much attention on the guest list on 302 00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 3: who turns up to the World Economic Forum, as well 303 00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:00,920 Speaker 3: as what they say, who do you think is going 304 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 3: to be there? What leaders are confirmed? 305 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 9: Yeah, well, typically you see a fair share of world leaders, 306 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 9: business leaders, academics, even heads of NGOs and celebrities actually 307 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 9: tend to come to Davos. And for that reason it's 308 00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 9: been criticized as becoming a bit of a talking shop 309 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:20,840 Speaker 9: for the top one percent of the world's elites. But 310 00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 9: this year, what we do know is Donald Trump, So 311 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 9: the new US President, who steps into office on Monday, 312 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:31,640 Speaker 9: will actually be delivering a virtual speech on Thursday via 313 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 9: a live video link, so that will be widely awaited. 314 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:37,880 Speaker 9: Urslaer van de Lyon will be there, the President of 315 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 9: the European Commission, even the Vice Premier of China will 316 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 9: be attending. Olaf Schultz, who's facing his fair share of 317 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 9: domestic issues, will also be attending interestingly, and el Frederick Merz, 318 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 9: who is the opposition candidate into the Journal elections, will 319 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 9: also be attending Davos, so you've got to think about 320 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:57,120 Speaker 9: the type of audience that he's targeting. There have you 321 00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,600 Speaker 9: and me. Lay will be attending Argentinian President writing on 322 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:05,280 Speaker 9: a high after a quite successful year of instituting economic reforms, 323 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:09,560 Speaker 9: and then from the Middle East you have the Prime 324 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,359 Speaker 9: Minister of the Palestinian National Authority, which will be interesting 325 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:16,000 Speaker 9: given the latest developments. You also have the Prime Minister 326 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 9: and Minister of Foreign Affairs from the State of Qatar. 327 00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 9: And then beyond that, Zelenski will be attending President of Ukraine, 328 00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 9: so a bit of a mixed bag and people from 329 00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:26,320 Speaker 9: all around the world will be there. 330 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:30,400 Speaker 3: But then does that imply that there'll be much discussion 331 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:36,000 Speaker 3: about war and invotes in terms of creating pace any 332 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 3: precedent for. 333 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 9: That, Absolutely, there isn't a precedent for sure historically. 334 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:43,960 Speaker 3: But war will be. 335 00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:48,040 Speaker 9: The top of agenda this year, and every year into 336 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 9: the event they put out a top Risks report, and 337 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:57,159 Speaker 9: this year war is actually the top worry on the 338 00:17:57,240 --> 00:18:03,360 Speaker 9: list of things that experts have been flagging as potential 339 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:06,879 Speaker 9: risks into twenty twenty five. So state based armed conflict 340 00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 9: is the most pressing immediate concern given what it tumultuous 341 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:13,399 Speaker 9: year twenty twenty four was, not just in terms of 342 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:15,679 Speaker 9: the many elections that took place, but of course in 343 00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:18,399 Speaker 9: terms of the many conflicts that are taking place around 344 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 9: the world and the ongoing conflict of course between Ukraine 345 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:25,000 Speaker 9: and Russia, but perhaps slightly more positive steps with the 346 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 9: announcement of that ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. 347 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:33,560 Speaker 3: Although also extreme weather events were singled out as a 348 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:40,440 Speaker 3: concern for WEF participants and this is perhaps are ushering 349 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,199 Speaker 3: in quite a new era in terms of the global 350 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 3: economy and views on climate change. 351 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:51,159 Speaker 9: Yeah, absolutely, and so you mentioned the global economy. We 352 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 9: F Into these events, they typically put out the risk report, 353 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:56,480 Speaker 9: but then they also put out the economic outlook for 354 00:18:56,640 --> 00:19:00,919 Speaker 9: twenty twenty five, fifty six percent of the economists surveyed 355 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 9: expect weaker global economic conditions, again weighed down by concerns 356 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 9: of fragmentation, economic fragmentation, the rise in protectionism it spells 357 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 9: by potentially, of course, the new US administration, rising debt, 358 00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:16,880 Speaker 9: and political uncertainty. And then to add to that over 359 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 9: the medium term horizon, the risks from emanating from the 360 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:26,560 Speaker 9: climate crisis always feature on the medium term and long 361 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:30,440 Speaker 9: term concerns that come up in these reports. And this 362 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:32,800 Speaker 9: is a year where we've spoken about this is one 363 00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 9: of the hottest years on records. In fact, it was 364 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:38,119 Speaker 9: actually the hottest year on records, and we're still looking 365 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:41,680 Speaker 9: at the devastation caused by, say, the wildfires in La 366 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 9: Lots of those events have been happening with increasing amount 367 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 9: of frequency and with increasing intensity one and will continue 368 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 9: to be one of the pertinent issues discussed at the 369 00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:53,399 Speaker 9: World Economic Forum. 370 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:56,280 Speaker 3: My thanks to Bloomberg's humount of BISECI. So the risks 371 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:59,919 Speaker 3: associated with global conflict are set to take center stage 372 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:04,160 Speaker 3: in DeVos in the next few days. With interstate relationships 373 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 3: being so pivotal this year, will diplomacy be crucial. Katherine Ashton, 374 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:12,159 Speaker 3: the former EU Foreign Affairs chief, has been speaking to 375 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:16,359 Speaker 3: us about how countries can understand each other better. This year, 376 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 3: she's been speaking to Blomberg's Farci Laqua. 377 00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 10: I think we've had some sort of messages. We know 378 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 10: that he's very interested in playing a role in stopping wars. 379 00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:30,560 Speaker 10: Let's put it simply that, of course applies to what's 380 00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:35,879 Speaker 10: happening in Ukraine. But the relationship with Putin is not straightforward, 381 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 10: and President Putin does not do what other people tell 382 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:42,439 Speaker 10: him to do. So I see a sense that they 383 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:44,720 Speaker 10: might be moving away from suggesting that can be done 384 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:48,520 Speaker 10: very quickly. And he's obviously going to get a lot 385 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:52,000 Speaker 10: of pressure within Congress as well from Ukraine not to 386 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:55,480 Speaker 10: just give this away, not to be somebody who seemed 387 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:57,920 Speaker 10: to be in Putin's sad And then we've seen some 388 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 10: extraordinary statements about Greenland and so on. But you know, 389 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:05,679 Speaker 10: he's the master of getting the headline. He's the master 390 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:08,760 Speaker 10: of saying something or not saying something. In the case 391 00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:11,760 Speaker 10: of would you use military force against Greenland? You know, 392 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 10: the idea that he and Denmark are going to war 393 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:18,200 Speaker 10: doesn't seem realistic, But by not saying that it's set 394 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,239 Speaker 10: off our whole set of issues, and it feels like 395 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:23,680 Speaker 10: these are almost a little bit of a distraction from 396 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:26,639 Speaker 10: the main elements for the foreign policy that he's going 397 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 10: to have to put in place, of which China is 398 00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:31,120 Speaker 10: clearly going to be key, but also what he wants 399 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:33,639 Speaker 10: to do on Ukraine, Russia and of course in the 400 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:34,360 Speaker 10: Middle East too. 401 00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 5: You've spent your whole career actually dealing with either unreadable 402 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:43,199 Speaker 5: or treaty personalities, foreign of course stage people. What's the 403 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:45,240 Speaker 5: right way of dealing with Donald Trump right now? 404 00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 10: I spent quite a bit of time with some of 405 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,880 Speaker 10: his foreign policy people in what we now call Trump One, 406 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,720 Speaker 10: and that was really interesting because it's a combination of 407 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,639 Speaker 10: people who've got years of experience. I may disagree with 408 00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 10: them on how they do something, but you can see 409 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 10: the sense of direction. I think this time we'll see 410 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:07,440 Speaker 10: things slightly differently. It will be much more I think 411 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:10,639 Speaker 10: clear early on where he's trying to get to it, 412 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 10: and a lot of his work will be domestic, so 413 00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 10: on foreign policy issues, what I would say to anybody 414 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 10: is listen to what he says, because he says what 415 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 10: he means at that point, and he often continues to 416 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:25,959 Speaker 10: mean it. Look at what the realistic elements of what 417 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,760 Speaker 10: he's saying are, and that's especially going to be important 418 00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 10: as everybody gets very nervous about tariffs, but also finding 419 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:38,120 Speaker 10: ways that you can build the foreign policy commitments, for 420 00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,800 Speaker 10: example with NATO. I don't think that he'll pull out 421 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:42,680 Speaker 10: of nature, but I think he is going to pressure 422 00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 10: for more money to be spent by European countries. And 423 00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 10: to be fair to him, he's been incredibly successful in 424 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,480 Speaker 10: achieving what previous presidents have failed to do, which is 425 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,160 Speaker 10: getting European countries to pay more. 426 00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:56,640 Speaker 5: There's the added complexity of Elon Musk. He's an advisor 427 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,280 Speaker 5: of Donald Trump. We understand he'll have an office in 428 00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:03,200 Speaker 5: the White House close to the White House, and he's 429 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:06,480 Speaker 5: attacking including you know, the Prime Minister, but he's attacking 430 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:10,800 Speaker 5: foreign actors. He's supporting some, for example, of the far 431 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,240 Speaker 5: right in Germany. What's the right way to deal with him. 432 00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:16,119 Speaker 10: Well, he's obviously going to be an important player in 433 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,120 Speaker 10: the Trump administration, at least for now. Whether he will 434 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:21,639 Speaker 10: decide to stay long term will partly depend, I think 435 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,439 Speaker 10: on where his other interests lack. I always think with 436 00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,199 Speaker 10: anyone who is playing in a key role, you have 437 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,679 Speaker 10: to look at what their motivation might be. And I 438 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:34,119 Speaker 10: think for mister Musk, he's primarily a businessman, and so 439 00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 10: some of the things that he's saying are I think 440 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:40,639 Speaker 10: relevant to how he sees not just his business, but 441 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:44,960 Speaker 10: the world he's in, whether it's artificial intelligence, robotic space 442 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:48,720 Speaker 10: and so on, as being really important. So when he 443 00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 10: says to NASA, you shouldn't focus on the Moon, you 444 00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:56,360 Speaker 10: should focus on Mars, that's a fair point from his perspective, 445 00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 10: you know. So some of this is about business, other 446 00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 10: I think will be about his own opinions. 447 00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:04,800 Speaker 5: What's the right way of the UK in dealing with this. 448 00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:09,400 Speaker 10: We've always had that sort of bridge effect really that 449 00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:13,080 Speaker 10: the relationship with the US is a long term, ongoing 450 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:18,920 Speaker 10: special relationship that I think the outgoing US ambassador described 451 00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:22,000 Speaker 10: as the essential relationship, and they'll be very keen to 452 00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,080 Speaker 10: keep that, but to keep it within a framework that 453 00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:30,040 Speaker 10: actually means we're going to be economically benefiting, politically benefiting. 454 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 10: So there'll be a big move too to work with 455 00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:37,560 Speaker 10: colleagues in NATO on defense security and I think with Europe, 456 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:41,000 Speaker 10: and there's a whole raft of staff that from defense 457 00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:44,040 Speaker 10: and security right the way through to environmental climate change 458 00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 10: and so on, where there is a lot of what 459 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,560 Speaker 10: you might call common cause to be made that will 460 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:53,200 Speaker 10: be different to America's direction of travels, certainly under the president. 461 00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,000 Speaker 10: Where the business chooses a different path is another thing. 462 00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 10: So it'll be about a balancing act. And I think 463 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:02,320 Speaker 10: the only way you can approach you is to stay calm, 464 00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 10: keep moving, do the stuff behind the scenes, because I'm 465 00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,840 Speaker 10: a huge believer that most of it happens behind the 466 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:13,800 Speaker 10: scenes that we never see and shouldn't see, and not 467 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:18,840 Speaker 10: get too distressed or kind of turned away from your 468 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:25,080 Speaker 10: objectives because of what's happening that seems to be incredibly newsworthy, 469 00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,880 Speaker 10: but actually it's just a lot of rhetoric that's going 470 00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:28,720 Speaker 10: on in the background. 471 00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:32,280 Speaker 3: That was the former EU Foreign Affairs chief Katherine Ashton 472 00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:35,560 Speaker 3: speaking too Fancy in Laquat on Bloomberg Television. Now we 473 00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,840 Speaker 3: will have full coverage over the World Economic Forums and 474 00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:42,439 Speaker 3: your meeting in Devils live on Bloomberg Radio and TV. 475 00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,160 Speaker 3: I'm Caroline Hepge here in London and you can catch 476 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:48,159 Speaker 3: us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak. You at beginning 477 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:51,439 Speaker 3: at six am in London. That's one am on Wall Street. 478 00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,679 Speaker 2: Tom, thank you, Caroline, And coming up on Bloomberg day 479 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,080 Speaker 2: Break Weekend and look at what a Donald Trump presidency 480 00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:01,680 Speaker 2: will mean for US China relations. I'm Tom Busby and 481 00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:15,479 Speaker 2: this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our 482 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:17,760 Speaker 2: global look ahead at the top stories for investors in 483 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,359 Speaker 2: the coming week. I'm Tom Busby in New York with 484 00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,080 Speaker 2: his swearing in. Right around the corner, will Donald Trump 485 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:25,879 Speaker 2: made good on his campaign threats toward China once he 486 00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:28,320 Speaker 2: takes office. For a closer look, let's get to the 487 00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,520 Speaker 2: host of the Daybreak Asia podcast, Doug Krisner. 488 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,679 Speaker 4: Tom, let's start with a recollection. It was back in 489 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:39,000 Speaker 4: October when then Republican nominee Donald Trump sat down with 490 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,199 Speaker 4: Bloomberg News editor in chief John Micklethwaite. Here's part of 491 00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:43,040 Speaker 4: that conversation. 492 00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,679 Speaker 11: I told them, and I said it publicly, They're not 493 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,760 Speaker 11: going to sell one car into the United States. I said, 494 00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:52,199 Speaker 11: if I run this country, if I'm going to be 495 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 11: president of this country, I'm going to put a one 496 00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:57,439 Speaker 11: hundred two hundred two thousand percent triff. They're not going 497 00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:01,360 Speaker 11: to sell one car into the United state, because we're 498 00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 11: not going to destroy our country. Right. So, because I 499 00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:08,080 Speaker 11: know you're an anti tariff guy, but I'm the exact opposite. 500 00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,200 Speaker 11: If I had there is no other way I could 501 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:13,119 Speaker 11: have stopped there, other than what am I gonna do 502 00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:15,680 Speaker 11: negotiating with Mexico, which you're not going to get anything 503 00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:18,440 Speaker 11: from them. I said, I'm gonna put a one hundred, 504 00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:20,439 Speaker 11: two hundred or three hundred. I'm going to put the 505 00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:23,200 Speaker 11: highest tariff in history, meaning I'm going to stop them 506 00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:24,440 Speaker 11: from ever selling a current. 507 00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:27,080 Speaker 12: And that says Trump. I let you give your example. 508 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 12: You talked a lot about tariffs. You look at the 509 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:33,440 Speaker 12: American economy. Forty million jobs rely on trade. It counts 510 00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,920 Speaker 12: for twenty seven percent of GDP. If you cut that off, 511 00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 12: that's also going to effect on many many business people here. 512 00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:43,639 Speaker 12: Tariffs also have another side. Isn't that something that you 513 00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:46,040 Speaker 12: have to acknowledge? You could be plunging America into the 514 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:49,960 Speaker 12: biggest trade war since Smoothall, But you're gonna stop. You're 515 00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:51,560 Speaker 12: gonna there are tariffs already. 516 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:52,160 Speaker 8: There are riffs. 517 00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:53,639 Speaker 11: All you have to do is build your plant in 518 00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:55,600 Speaker 11: the United States and you don't have any tariffs. 519 00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:58,760 Speaker 12: People, there's a lot of places, a lot of places 520 00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:00,800 Speaker 12: like this they rely there, a lot of jobs that 521 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,640 Speaker 12: rely on foreigners coming here. You're going to basically stop 522 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:07,480 Speaker 12: trade with China. You're talking about sixty percent trade on that, 523 00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 12: sixty perent tariffs on that. You're talking, as you said, 524 00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,520 Speaker 12: one hundred two hundred percent all things you don't really like. 525 00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,480 Speaker 12: You're also talking about twenty ten to twenty percent tariffs 526 00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:17,399 Speaker 12: on the rest of the world. That is going to 527 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:19,760 Speaker 12: have a serious effect on the overall economy. And yes, 528 00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:22,080 Speaker 12: you're going to find some people who were gained from 529 00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:25,640 Speaker 12: individual tariffs. The overall effect could be massive. 530 00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:29,920 Speaker 11: I agree, it's going to have a massive effect, positive effect. 531 00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:33,800 Speaker 4: That's Donald Trump there, in conversation with Bloomberg News editor 532 00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:37,480 Speaker 4: in chief John Micklethwaite. Now, mister Trump's hardline approach to 533 00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,320 Speaker 4: China is no secret. He is vowed to be tough 534 00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,920 Speaker 4: and enact hefty tariffs. Now those rates could potentially be 535 00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:47,240 Speaker 4: as high as sixty percent, and the President elect is 536 00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:51,680 Speaker 4: likely to maintain strict export controls on AI related technology 537 00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:56,280 Speaker 4: to prevent China's access. Curiously, Trump has touted a friendly 538 00:28:56,360 --> 00:29:00,280 Speaker 4: relationship with Chinese President Chi Jinping, and Trump is also 539 00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,920 Speaker 4: taken a laissez fair stance on Taiwan. So how he 540 00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:07,560 Speaker 4: is Beijing preparing for a second Trump administration. To help 541 00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:11,000 Speaker 4: explore that, I'm joined now by John lu Bloomberg, Executive 542 00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:14,520 Speaker 4: editor for Greater China. John joining from our studios in Beijing. 543 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:16,920 Speaker 4: Thank you so much for making time. I'm sure it's 544 00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:19,959 Speaker 4: been busy for you, as it has been for US stateside. 545 00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:23,280 Speaker 4: So leaders in China know Trump. John, they've dealt with 546 00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:26,160 Speaker 4: him before. I'm curious to get your take on how 547 00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:28,520 Speaker 4: things may change in the years ahead. 548 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:33,440 Speaker 7: I think that there is a familiar aity with Trump. 549 00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:37,280 Speaker 7: I think the question is how will he roll out 550 00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:40,080 Speaker 7: some of these promises that he has made during the campaign, 551 00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:44,640 Speaker 7: the sixty percent tariffs that you talked about already. I 552 00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 7: think there is a preparation in Beijing. We see that 553 00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:50,680 Speaker 7: when it comes to new laws in terms of how 554 00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:56,920 Speaker 7: the government can limit exports of key medals, other technologies 555 00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:00,960 Speaker 7: such as battery technologies. I think that is a sign 556 00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:03,959 Speaker 7: of the Chinese government ready to punch back if and 557 00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,840 Speaker 7: when the Trump administration does punch. 558 00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:09,640 Speaker 4: It's interesting that they use that metaphor because I'm wondering 559 00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:11,840 Speaker 4: whether this is going to be a fight or whether 560 00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:14,320 Speaker 4: it's going to be kind of more of a negotiation 561 00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,480 Speaker 4: where they're looking both sides are looking to strike deals. 562 00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:21,000 Speaker 7: I think there's a broad thinking in Beijing that Trump 563 00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:26,640 Speaker 7: is less ideologically driven and more driven by the desire 564 00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:30,280 Speaker 7: to get a deal. And if that is the assumption, 565 00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:34,440 Speaker 7: then I think a lot of these tariffs, a lot 566 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:39,280 Speaker 7: of this tough talk is a negotiating tactic to try 567 00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:43,000 Speaker 7: and improve the position that Trump is in when he 568 00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,360 Speaker 7: goes to the table, when he sits across from Cijiping 569 00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 7: and they try and hash out a deal. 570 00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 4: Marco Rubio has been nominated to be Secretary of State, 571 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 4: and back in twenty twenty one, he authored the Weager 572 00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:57,280 Speaker 4: Forced Labor Prevention Act. And do you expect human rights 573 00:30:57,280 --> 00:31:00,240 Speaker 4: to be at all a part of the conversation between 574 00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 4: Beijin and Washington. 575 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:08,040 Speaker 7: I think mister Rubio many of his positions are different 576 00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:11,800 Speaker 7: from those the President Trump has, and I think it'll 577 00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:15,080 Speaker 7: one of the many interesting things to watch is how 578 00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 7: that works itself out. I do think that as far 579 00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:22,200 Speaker 7: as humor rights go, if it does strengthen Trump's hand 580 00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,400 Speaker 7: at the negotiating table, I think they will be a 581 00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:29,200 Speaker 7: factor whether or not that is, humor rights is something 582 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:31,840 Speaker 7: that he's not willing to negotiate on. I don't think 583 00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 7: that they are. And so if you were to give 584 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,800 Speaker 7: up some of these issues that Rubio finds to be 585 00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:42,200 Speaker 7: core in his view of American policy, then that will 586 00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:43,800 Speaker 7: be very interesting how it plays out. 587 00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:46,640 Speaker 4: It's interesting because we have seen that China has already 588 00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:51,520 Speaker 4: begun to reposition itself in other parts of Southeast Asia, 589 00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,520 Speaker 4: in Latin America, even in the Mid East in recent years, 590 00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:58,040 Speaker 4: and I'm wondering whether that's preemptive, that there's already a 591 00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:02,920 Speaker 4: feeling that they're going to have to reduce maybe reliance 592 00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:04,920 Speaker 4: on the United States to a great degree. 593 00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:08,719 Speaker 7: I think partly it is that. Partly it is China 594 00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:11,680 Speaker 7: trying to make sure it has access to other markets 595 00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:13,880 Speaker 7: if it's going to be shut out of the United States. 596 00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:17,080 Speaker 7: The other part of that, actually, I think is, you know, 597 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:24,080 Speaker 7: as we've seen already with Trump's promises of tariffs against Canada, 598 00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:29,479 Speaker 7: against Mexico, the issues that he has with NATO, that 599 00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:34,880 Speaker 7: during the Trump administration there's a lot of fractiousness between 600 00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,280 Speaker 7: the United States and its allies, and that actually gives 601 00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:40,760 Speaker 7: China a chance to make friends abroad that may not 602 00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:42,760 Speaker 7: have been there under the Biden administration. 603 00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:46,160 Speaker 4: That's interesting too, because the Biden administration, I think we 604 00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,520 Speaker 4: can agree, took a multilateral approach in dealing with China 605 00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:52,200 Speaker 4: in a way that during the first Trump administration it 606 00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:56,080 Speaker 4: was more unilateral. Will that change in your view going forward? 607 00:32:57,320 --> 00:33:01,280 Speaker 7: I would expect President Trump to continue you to act 608 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:05,160 Speaker 7: in a very America first way, right. I think he's 609 00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:09,080 Speaker 7: made that very clear. I think the Chinese, having seen 610 00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:12,280 Speaker 7: what the first administration did in terms of American allies, 611 00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:15,000 Speaker 7: I think the Chinese see and opportunity to strengthen their 612 00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:20,280 Speaker 7: relationships in Asia, in Europe, and other locations around the world. 613 00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 7: If Trump is going to be fighting tariff wars left 614 00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:24,520 Speaker 7: and right. 615 00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:28,480 Speaker 4: We can debate the state of the Chinese economy, whether 616 00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:30,360 Speaker 4: or not a bottom has kind of been put in 617 00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:33,800 Speaker 4: and things are beginning to improve. One of the powerhouses 618 00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:37,360 Speaker 4: clearly has been the export part of the Chinese economy. 619 00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:42,040 Speaker 4: Tariffs obviously would threaten that. Is that a major concern 620 00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 4: on the part of leaders in China. 621 00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:49,760 Speaker 7: I think is definitely a major concern for Beijing. There's 622 00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:53,200 Speaker 7: a lot of worry that if tariff's coming right away, 623 00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:57,360 Speaker 7: it really SAPs the ability of the export engine to 624 00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:01,320 Speaker 7: help prop up economic growth here at home. That that 625 00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:04,760 Speaker 7: will result in things getting much much more difficult for 626 00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:06,920 Speaker 7: Hiding Ping and his government to try to work out. 627 00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:09,279 Speaker 7: They will have less time. I mean, the push right 628 00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:13,080 Speaker 7: now is Beijing is trying to retune the economy so 629 00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,880 Speaker 7: that it's more dependent on consumption. The problem is the 630 00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:19,640 Speaker 7: consumer is not spending, and if they don't have exports, 631 00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:21,520 Speaker 7: it's not going to give them as much time as 632 00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:22,680 Speaker 7: they would like to try and fix that. 633 00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:22,960 Speaker 8: Pulce. 634 00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:26,520 Speaker 4: So, having said that, is the position in China a 635 00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:30,279 Speaker 4: little bit more vulnerable right now? And is the Trump administration, 636 00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:34,240 Speaker 4: the incoming Trump administration aware of that to the degree 637 00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:36,839 Speaker 4: that it would seek to take advantage of that vulnerability. 638 00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,320 Speaker 7: I think the Trump administration, I would have to imagine, 639 00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:44,239 Speaker 7: is aware of the situation that China finds itself in economically, 640 00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:47,840 Speaker 7: and the domestic economy being weak puts China at a 641 00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:51,040 Speaker 7: more of a disadvantage when it comes to negotiations. At 642 00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:54,080 Speaker 7: the same time, I think China realizes that, but it 643 00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:58,040 Speaker 7: also has some bottom lines that it's not going to 644 00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:00,160 Speaker 7: cross these red lines, that it's not going to to 645 00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:05,320 Speaker 7: give up things we talked about Taiwan before sovereignty issues. 646 00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:09,520 Speaker 7: They're not going to undermine those issues to get a 647 00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:10,399 Speaker 7: better trade deal. 648 00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:14,439 Speaker 4: What about access to high technology? I indicated earlier that 649 00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:19,200 Speaker 4: it's likely that Trump would maintain the level of export 650 00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:21,839 Speaker 4: controls that were put in place by the Biden administration, 651 00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:26,440 Speaker 4: which is essentially keeping China's access to certain components for 652 00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:29,960 Speaker 4: AI kind of restricted in a major way, and that 653 00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:34,040 Speaker 4: may be holding back the development of certain technologies in China. 654 00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:36,920 Speaker 4: Is this something that Beijing is expecting when it comes 655 00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:42,200 Speaker 4: to areas of artificial intelligence, whether it's kind of software 656 00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:44,240 Speaker 4: or whether it's hardware like a chip. 657 00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,400 Speaker 7: I think this is an area that's a little more unclear. 658 00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:52,719 Speaker 7: The Biden administration has made it very crystal clear they've 659 00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:57,240 Speaker 7: got this small yard, high fence approach to China policy 660 00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:02,319 Speaker 7: limiting Chinese access to technology. Trump during the campaign, when 661 00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:05,840 Speaker 7: he's talked about it's been much more about trade, about 662 00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:09,520 Speaker 7: the trade surplus. He has not had as much of 663 00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:12,759 Speaker 7: an emphasis on technology. For example, he's in support of 664 00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:15,640 Speaker 7: allowing TikTok to stay. Obviously he would like to see 665 00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:18,120 Speaker 7: it in American hands, not in Chinese hands. But it 666 00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,719 Speaker 7: just sort of shows there's a slight difference when it 667 00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:22,880 Speaker 7: comes to technology, and so I think the interesting question 668 00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:27,840 Speaker 7: is when a negotiation happens, how likely would it be 669 00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:32,960 Speaker 7: that Trump might compromise on technology access in exchange for 670 00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:36,760 Speaker 7: more Chinese buying of American agriculture, for example. 671 00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:39,040 Speaker 4: When it comes to high technology, and I'm thinking in 672 00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:43,279 Speaker 4: particular of advanced semiconductors, it's all about Taiwan semi. We 673 00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:47,680 Speaker 4: know that when it comes to the US being able 674 00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:51,520 Speaker 4: to support through arm sales the government in Taiwan. Is 675 00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:55,120 Speaker 4: that something that you believe that Trump administration will continue 676 00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:59,040 Speaker 4: as happened during the Bidy administration or will we see 677 00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:00,800 Speaker 4: a shift and that slightly. 678 00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:04,520 Speaker 7: I think it's most likely going to continue. I think 679 00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:08,279 Speaker 7: it'll continue because you have people like Marco Rubio who 680 00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:11,799 Speaker 7: will be at the State Department and they will continue 681 00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:15,040 Speaker 7: to support those actions arm cells to Taiwan to help 682 00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:18,879 Speaker 7: Taiwan defend itself against any potential aggression that might come 683 00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:22,160 Speaker 7: from China. But I think it's also very clear that 684 00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:25,919 Speaker 7: Trump is much less interventionist when it comes to using 685 00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:30,080 Speaker 7: American military power abroad, and so that makes it a 686 00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:33,239 Speaker 7: much more nuanced relationship, and it makes it much more 687 00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:36,200 Speaker 7: difficult for Taiwan to try and figure out how much 688 00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:39,200 Speaker 7: they can depend on Washington if things get hairy. 689 00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:42,759 Speaker 4: What about the relationship that China has with Russia right now, 690 00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:46,640 Speaker 4: I'm thinking about how that's impacted war in Ukraine. Trump 691 00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:49,000 Speaker 4: has said that he would like to end that conflict. 692 00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:51,600 Speaker 4: Do you believe that China will play any type of 693 00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:52,319 Speaker 4: role in that. 694 00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:57,160 Speaker 7: I think the key players in this are Kiev in Moscow. Certainly. 695 00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:00,719 Speaker 7: I think the Chinese would very very much like the 696 00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:04,319 Speaker 7: war to end. It has been a big detriment to 697 00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:07,880 Speaker 7: the Chinese relationship with Europe and in Chinese relationship with 698 00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:11,360 Speaker 7: lots of other countries who see this aggression from Russia 699 00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:15,759 Speaker 7: and are themselves fearful. I think if China any role 700 00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:18,480 Speaker 7: that China can play on getting a piece still done, 701 00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,600 Speaker 7: it will do that, although I do not think they 702 00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:25,879 Speaker 7: are willing to exert overwhelming pressure on Russia to come 703 00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:26,400 Speaker 7: to the table. 704 00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:28,759 Speaker 4: John, we'll leave it there. Thank you so much for 705 00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:32,200 Speaker 4: helping us a preview what relations may look like between 706 00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:36,480 Speaker 4: Beijing and Washington under a second Trump administration. John Liu, 707 00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:40,000 Speaker 4: their executive editor for Greater China, joining from our studios 708 00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:43,000 Speaker 4: in Beijing. I'm Doug Chrisner, and you can catch us 709 00:38:43,000 --> 00:38:47,120 Speaker 4: weekdays here for the Daybreak Asia podcast. It's available wherever 710 00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:50,120 Speaker 4: you get your podcast. Tom, thank you Doug. 711 00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:52,520 Speaker 2: And that does it for this edition of Bloomberg day 712 00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:55,120 Speaker 2: Break Weekend. Join us again Monday morning at five am 713 00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:57,560 Speaker 2: Wall Street Time for the latest on markets overseas and 714 00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:00,840 Speaker 2: the news you need to start your day. I'm Tom Busby. 715 00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:03,759 Speaker 2: Stay with us. Top stories and global business headlines are 716 00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:04,959 Speaker 2: coming up right now.