1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 2: Welcome into the Action Network podcast. This is your UFC 3 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 2: Fight Night two to four betting preview. Brendan Lasjeen back 4 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:30,920 Speaker 2: with you on the Action Network Podcast, joined by Action 5 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:35,479 Speaker 2: Network senior writer Sean Zarillo and former professional MMA fighter, 6 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:39,279 Speaker 2: MMA analyst at the Action Network Billy Ward. UFC Fight 7 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,319 Speaker 2: Night two oh four takes us across the pond the 8 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 2: two Arena in London. This is the first UFC event 9 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 2: in London in three years. We have twelve fights on 10 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 2: the card, six on the main card, six prelimbs. Our 11 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:55,040 Speaker 2: main focus here on the podcast for the next twenty 12 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 2: minutes or so the main event. Of course, we'll get 13 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 2: to the guys fight of the night. We have underdog plays, 14 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:04,839 Speaker 2: favorite props, a look on the DFS slate with Billy, 15 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:08,399 Speaker 2: and of course best bets. So we start with the 16 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:12,119 Speaker 2: main event. Alexander Volkov at plus one ten. You can 17 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:14,959 Speaker 2: find odds anywhere. Of course, we're looking at MGM right now, 18 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:19,119 Speaker 2: eight and three in UFC this year. Tom aspinall at 19 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:23,040 Speaker 2: minus one thirty. He's four to zero in UFC fights 20 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:25,399 Speaker 2: this year. This is a heavyweight fight. Sean will go 21 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:28,319 Speaker 2: to you first. What is your opening thought? And how 22 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:31,320 Speaker 2: are you approaching this particular fight. 23 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go against the heart and go against 24 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:36,400 Speaker 3: one of my favorite fighters or prospects in Tom Aspinall, 25 00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 3: and take Alexander Volkov here at plus one ten, projecting 26 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 3: him around fifty one percent. I think he should be 27 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 3: favored now. Ospinaal is very talented, very fast hands, tons 28 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 3: of power. He's a big kid too, and he's a 29 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 3: dangerous scrappler if he gets this fight to the mat. 30 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 3: But we haven't really seen him have success pass the 31 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 3: seven minute mark, and that goes back to his regional days, 32 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 3: just thirteen professional fights in his career, so Volkov more 33 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 3: than thirty professional fights. In addition to Aspinall's experience any 34 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:06,560 Speaker 3: space better competition, so Aspinall coming up in competition and 35 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:09,079 Speaker 3: doing something he's never done before. Typically, when a fighter 36 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 3: starts their first twenty five minute fight, they're very established 37 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 3: in fifteen minute fights and show that they can push 38 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:18,080 Speaker 3: a pace for fifteen minutes. Aspinall's never had to do 39 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:19,840 Speaker 3: that and never had to fight really for more than 40 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 3: seven or eight minutes, So it kind of remains to 41 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:24,960 Speaker 3: be seen how he's gonna fare if this fight gets extended. 42 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:28,359 Speaker 3: And Volkov is a very likely opponent to extend the fight. 43 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:32,079 Speaker 3: Been in twenty five minutes about six times, very familiar 44 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 3: with main events, as I said, very familiar with top 45 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 3: level opponents. And if Aspinall can't get him out of 46 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 3: there early, Volkov should eventually pick up steam as this 47 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:43,840 Speaker 3: fight goes. Should make use of his link advantage, frontkicks 48 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:46,359 Speaker 3: to the body, hit him with straight punches, jab him 49 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 3: over and over. Expect him to win minutes on volume 50 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 3: as we get later into the fight. Like I said, 51 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:54,440 Speaker 3: Aspinall I think should have some six early success. Maybe 52 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 3: he even knocks Volkov down, he steals the first round, 53 00:02:57,240 --> 00:02:59,359 Speaker 3: maybe the second round. You could look to jump in 54 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 3: on Volkov live after round one, round two. I do 55 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 3: expect him to drown Aspinall late. I'm also taking Volkov's 56 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 3: late props. Round three is plus eighteen hundred, round FoST 57 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:11,919 Speaker 3: plus twenty eight hundred. Round five is plus thirty three 58 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:15,119 Speaker 3: hundred sprinkle each of those take Volkov on the money line, 59 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:16,919 Speaker 3: and I'm also betting the fight to end inside the 60 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 3: distance minus one fifty at bet MGM. I projected that 61 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 3: line closer to minus one eighty five. Aspinall early Volkov late, 62 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:26,360 Speaker 3: I do expect his fight to end inside the distance. 63 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 2: Billy, how about yourself? How are you approaching the main event? 64 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:32,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm pretty much with Sean here. I don't plan 65 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 4: on betting this pre fight. If I had to, I 66 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 4: think I would go with Ospinall by knockout at plus 67 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 4: one eighty. I think he's got a pretty solid punch 68 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 4: of your shot early on. 69 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 5: But I'm with Sean. I'm looking to live bet this. 70 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 4: I'm hoping Aspinall comes out as hard as he normally does, 71 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 4: kind of gasses himself out, but wins round one or 72 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 4: round two, then we can fire on the live bet 73 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 4: on the Volkov side. If that line gets even better. 74 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 2: Aspinall has won seven straight fights overall, all by stoppage, 75 00:03:57,040 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 2: and he takes on the veteran in Volkov who has 76 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 2: height and reach advantages but not this case, and I 77 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:08,240 Speaker 2: think the odds reflect that. So a live betting opportunity 78 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 2: according to the guy, So keep an eye on that 79 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 2: as this fight gets underway on Saturday. Let's move to 80 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:17,440 Speaker 2: our favorite underdogs. Billy will go to you first on 81 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 2: your favorite dog for the car. 82 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:22,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, my favorite dog is definitely Paul Craig. 83 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 4: I think he's up to plus one sixty five some 84 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 4: places you can see him. He's got great submissions. Obviously, 85 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:31,840 Speaker 4: we saw him break Jamal Hill's arm. It was ruled 86 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:33,480 Speaker 4: to knock out, but it was really a submission. He 87 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 4: broke his arm and then beat him up. But he's 88 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 4: very aggressive hunting takedowns. He at times over two per round, 89 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 4: and as we saw against Heill, if he can't force 90 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:42,520 Speaker 4: a takedown, he'll just pull. 91 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 5: You down into guard. 92 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 4: So he's gonna make this a ground fight one way 93 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 4: or the other, which I think is a huge advantage 94 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 4: to him. I think he probably gets a takedown. Krylov's 95 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,840 Speaker 4: takedown defense is only fifty five percent. Average in the 96 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 4: UFC is about seventy percent, and Carylov is also a long, 97 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 4: skinny guy. Guys like that they've got more limb to 98 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 4: try to attack with submissions. I think that makes it 99 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 4: even easier for Craig once it does get to the ground. 100 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:06,280 Speaker 4: So I really like his money line at where it's 101 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 4: at right now. I'm also going to sprinkle a little 102 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 4: bit on his submission at plus four fifty. You know, 103 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:12,840 Speaker 4: hopefully we don't see something like against Hill where he 104 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 4: gets a submission and then. 105 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 5: Beats him up. 106 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 4: But four to fifty is pretty long. Not'stre a guy 107 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 4: who wins almost everything by sub. 108 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 2: And Sean you have you have similar thoughts to Billy 109 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:21,920 Speaker 2: on this. 110 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:23,279 Speaker 5: Yeah, Paul Craig. 111 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:26,039 Speaker 3: The one underdog money line where I'm showing value for 112 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 3: tomorrow projected him closer to plus one forty five, so 113 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 3: I do think there's value on his side. That said, 114 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 3: there is a better way to play him to win 115 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:35,600 Speaker 3: this fight in my opinion, so we'll touch on that 116 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:37,840 Speaker 3: in the prop section coming up next. The two big 117 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 3: underdogs I did look at on this card, Smil I'm 118 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:44,279 Speaker 3: to rock Himov and Kazula Vargas considered making both of 119 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 3: those plays that ultimately had to pass. So wanted to 120 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:50,159 Speaker 3: get dip my toes into the underdog waters this card, 121 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:52,720 Speaker 3: but didn't find any that were really enticing to me. 122 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:57,279 Speaker 2: Paul Craig unbeaten in his last five fights, and as 123 00:05:57,320 --> 00:06:00,280 Speaker 2: Billy mentioned, you can get him over on Draftking at 124 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:03,400 Speaker 2: plus one sixty five. Our fight of the night for 125 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:07,120 Speaker 2: the guys, they are looking to Dan Hooker at plus 126 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:11,039 Speaker 2: one hundred and he takes on Arnold Allen in a 127 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 2: featherweight matchup. Alan at minus one twenty. This one should 128 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 2: be really fun and something's got to give. It feels 129 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:20,880 Speaker 2: like in this fight based on the directions each of 130 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:24,160 Speaker 2: these fighters are going Sean get us started. Your thoughts 131 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:26,440 Speaker 2: on Hooker, Alan, How are you approaching this from a 132 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 2: betting standpoint? 133 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:29,839 Speaker 3: Yeah, so the coman in the main event on this card, 134 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 3: the favorite is a local guy, and I think it 135 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:35,839 Speaker 3: both fights, the underdog is the rightful favorite. Have Hooker 136 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 3: here projected at fifty five percent, so I do lean 137 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 3: to his side and getting plus money and a guy 138 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:43,280 Speaker 3: I have projected at fifty five percent, I do have 139 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:44,600 Speaker 3: to bet that at least a little bit. 140 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 5: I do have a. 141 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 3: Preferred way to play this fight. We'll touch on that 142 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 3: at the end of this podcast. But to me, Dan 143 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 3: Hooker returning to featherweight should be absolutely massive in the cage, 144 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:55,640 Speaker 3: made weight without issue used to fight in this division, 145 00:06:56,400 --> 00:06:58,720 Speaker 3: but should be massive. Five inches of height and reach 146 00:06:58,760 --> 00:07:02,279 Speaker 3: against Alan, tons of pressure, tons of volume. Allan is 147 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 3: good at fighting backwards, which is why I think this 148 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:07,160 Speaker 3: can be a very good fight. He can apply pressure himself, 149 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 3: but I think he needs the hit takedowns here in 150 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:12,640 Speaker 3: order to win, because Hooker should have more volume and 151 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 3: with that linked advantage, he just should be able to 152 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 3: piece him up at range for fifteen minutes. I do 153 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 3: expect a close fight. Alan has some major power in 154 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 3: his left hand. I actually think he'll land the harder shots, 155 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 3: but he tends to get caught taking pictures of his opponents. 156 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 3: At times. We'll just stand there and not throw enough volume. 157 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:30,440 Speaker 3: It tends to get a little frustrating. He would have 158 00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 3: lost his last fight against the beeke YUSUF if he 159 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 3: didn't score a pair of knockdowns. And I was on 160 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 3: Allen in that fight, so it was very sweaty. But 161 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 3: Dan Hooker higher level of competition. Alan taking a step 162 00:07:40,840 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 3: up here, and Hooker's the bigger man as well. So 163 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 3: to me, Dan Hooker not only the experience, but also 164 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 3: the skill and the size advantages give me Dan Hooker. 165 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 2: He is the older fighter in this matchup, big time finisher, 166 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 2: all action approach or some of his strengths. Billy Allen 167 00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 2: competing for the first time in eleven months. He's a 168 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 2: promising prospect in UFC, and you actually like him. You're 169 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:05,239 Speaker 2: on the opposite side of Sean here. 170 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned Hooker's age because that's a 171 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 4: big part of this for me. You know, when you 172 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 4: see a guy into their thirties dropping a weight class, 173 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 4: that doesn't always end that well. You know, the speed 174 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 4: is the first thing to go as fighters get older. 175 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 4: He's going down to a lighter weight class where guys 176 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 4: are generally quicker, and he looks like a stick. I 177 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 4: know he made weight, no problem, but he is super 178 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 4: skinny for that weight class, which problem means we see 179 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 4: Alan with the strength. 180 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 5: Advantage that definitely helps with the takedowns. 181 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 4: So when we've got power, as Sean mentioned, you know, 182 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 4: he's probably likely to landless harder shots. Andy should have 183 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 4: a grappling advantage, or at least a takedown advantage, which 184 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 4: usually wins the round even if you don't do anything 185 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:40,600 Speaker 4: with it. 186 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:42,120 Speaker 5: I like the younger guy. 187 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:43,680 Speaker 4: I like, you know, the guy who's coming up and 188 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:46,280 Speaker 4: trending in the right direction. Whereas Hooker's lost three of 189 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 4: his last four, they were against much tougher competition. But 190 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 4: I still like the up and comer, especially with the 191 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 4: weight class change factored in. 192 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 3: And I think that's where our opinions slightly diverge. I 193 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,320 Speaker 3: don't really see Alan having that grappling success. Would you 194 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 3: say Billy. If Alan doesn't hit a takedown, would you 195 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 3: say Hooker is more likely to win the fight? 196 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 4: Absolutely, Yeah, I think he gets one or two. I 197 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:09,080 Speaker 4: think he probably only needs one or two. And I 198 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 4: wanted to specify definitely take down advantage. I don't know 199 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 4: once it gets to the ground, if he does much 200 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:15,640 Speaker 4: with it. So I don't think he necessarily has a 201 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:17,760 Speaker 4: grappling advantage, but I think he can squeeze out a 202 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 4: takedown or two, which a lot of times to the judges, 203 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:22,560 Speaker 4: that's just an instant round wind, even if you don't 204 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:23,160 Speaker 4: really do much. 205 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know, I'm worried generally going against these 206 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 3: British fighters with the home cooking with the judges, we're 207 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:30,840 Speaker 3: going to see some pretty biased scorecards on Saturdays. So 208 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 3: not going to have too much invested against the Brits. 209 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:35,920 Speaker 3: If anything, I'd want to be taking their decision props. 210 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is something. I mean, Hooker hasn't lost to 211 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 2: elite competition in a number of years now. And we've 212 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 2: talked about Allen. He's the young up and comer. He's 213 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:47,959 Speaker 2: eight no inside the octagon, So another fight that should 214 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 2: be very intriguing. It's very close in the odds once again. 215 00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 2: Tell us that again you're tuned into the Action Network 216 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 2: podcast UFC Fight Night two old for Brendan Glasheen with 217 00:09:58,520 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 2: our Action Network MMA analysts Sean Zarillo and Billy Ward. 218 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:05,560 Speaker 2: Shawn's been looking forward to this. We now explore the 219 00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 2: prop market for the big fight night in London. Sean, 220 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 2: let's go prop market time. 221 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:14,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, good card for prop betting, not as good for 222 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 3: money lines or totals. So Billy talked about Paul Craig 223 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 3: being our favorite underdog of the night, which I fully 224 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 3: agree with. But I think the better way to play 225 00:10:22,280 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 3: Craig is by inside the distance plus three thirty at DraftKings. 226 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:28,559 Speaker 3: I make this line closer to plus two hundred. I 227 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 3: would say it finishes around eighty percent of his wing condition. 228 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:34,960 Speaker 3: The market's saying it's closer to sixty percent fifty five percent. 229 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:37,880 Speaker 3: Completely disagree with that. Craig has been to the decision 230 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:40,559 Speaker 3: once in his career. All of his wins are by 231 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 3: finishing his career. This guy will relentlessly attack submissions for 232 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,160 Speaker 3: the entire time that he's inside the cage. He seems 233 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:49,200 Speaker 3: to fight like a guy who's trying to get in 234 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 3: and out of the cage as quickly as possible, generally 235 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:54,320 Speaker 3: a good under one and a half rounds bet. But 236 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 3: Craig inside the distance plus three thirty cry Loov, even 237 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 3: if he doesn't get taken down, it's likely that he 238 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:02,600 Speaker 3: tries to take Craig down at some point. He's attempted 239 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:04,960 Speaker 3: eighteen takedowns in his last three fights. If he keeps 240 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 3: the fight standing, he could probably pick Craig apart on 241 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:10,680 Speaker 3: the feet, but he really seems to want to wrestle late, 242 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:13,720 Speaker 3: and that's probably a bad idea. Diving into Craig's guard. 243 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 3: He'll throw up triangles, I'll hammer you with elbows, I'll 244 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 3: do a variety of things in his guard which are 245 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 3: very dangerous. And we've seen Krylov get submitted in the past. 246 00:11:21,880 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 3: So instead of taking that plus one sixty on Craig's 247 00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 3: money line, I'd much prefer his inside the distance odds 248 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:31,000 Speaker 3: at plus three thirty submissions odds as Billy mentioned plus 249 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:33,240 Speaker 3: four to fifty as well, and the one other prop 250 00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 3: I want to mention Corey McKenna inside the distance plus 251 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 3: three thirty three, but at MGM also plus seven to 252 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 3: fifty by submission. I think those are terrific odds a 253 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 3: lase read to me, doesn't belong in the UFC. Grappling 254 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 3: is two to zer level, and I think McKenna can 255 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:49,679 Speaker 3: finish this fight with one takedown Billy favorite prop. 256 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the inside the distance on 257 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:55,600 Speaker 4: Craig notes that gives you a little bit of insurance 258 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:57,240 Speaker 4: if he does go for the you know, put you 259 00:11:57,280 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 4: in a triangle and beat you up instead of just 260 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 4: finish the sub situation that he goes for. 261 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:03,760 Speaker 5: But uh no, I'm going way off the rails with this. 262 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:06,920 Speaker 4: I actually like Ji Herbert by knockout at plus six hundred. 263 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:09,679 Speaker 4: You know, he's a huge underdog against Tilperia. I think 264 00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 4: Tilperia might be a little distracted with this whole beef 265 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:14,560 Speaker 4: he's got going with Patty Pimblet and everything they're getting into. 266 00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 4: And Herbert has an eight inch reach advantage in this one, 267 00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:20,200 Speaker 4: so I don't think he's necessarily the better fighter. When 268 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:21,959 Speaker 4: you got a guy who's got big power and eight 269 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 4: inches in reach and he's gonna come out there and 270 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 4: spring a few times, all it takes is one of 271 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:27,679 Speaker 4: those to land, and that's definitely better than a one 272 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 4: and six chance, I think. So you know, I'm not 273 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 4: super confident that this is how this is going to 274 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 4: play out. But plus six hundred is a really good 275 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 4: price on that. 276 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'd say that's the vast majority of his win 277 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 3: condition too. Generally with these underdogs who were you know, 278 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 3: sort of knockout or bust, I think you'd prefer to 279 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 3: take their knockout props as if it's their money lines. 280 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:47,560 Speaker 5: It just looks like a good spot for that one. 281 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, there's no way he wins a decision or you know, 282 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 4: wins fifteen minutes, But can you land a punch that's 283 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:53,680 Speaker 4: a little bit easier. 284 00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:58,120 Speaker 2: Let's move to the DFS side of things. Billy really 285 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 2: specializes in this cay So, Billy, we've got the UFC 286 00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:05,400 Speaker 2: contest up. We've got it up right now. On DraftKings. 287 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:08,960 Speaker 2: Ospinaal is our most expensive. I checked that our most 288 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 2: expensive fighter is Pimblet at ninety four hundred, and then 289 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 2: Topouria at ninety three hundred, Nelson ninety two hundred, So 290 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 2: some expensive fighters on this card. How are you going 291 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:25,719 Speaker 2: about we'll start GPPs. How are you going about constructing 292 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:29,720 Speaker 2: a lineup and capitalizing always of course, trying to have 293 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 2: differentiation and get the winning lineup. 294 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:35,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, the big one with this, I think between Pimblet 295 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 4: and Pavlovitch, you're gonna want at least one, maybe two 296 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 4: of those guys. I think you're probably gonna save a 297 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:41,440 Speaker 4: little bit of ownership on two. 298 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 5: Of those guys. 299 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:44,880 Speaker 4: They'll both be high individually, but given their salaries, it's 300 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 4: going to be hard to fit both in as well 301 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:48,719 Speaker 4: as Topuria. But of course that means we need to 302 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:51,679 Speaker 4: find savings otherwise, So I really like Luana Carolina down 303 00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:54,720 Speaker 4: at seventy eight hundred more for cash on that side, 304 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 4: and then Jack. 305 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 5: Shore and Paul Craig for GPPs. They're both fairly cheap. 306 00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 4: You know, we've been all over Craig to get a 307 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:03,720 Speaker 4: stoppage here and he is only seventy five hundred, So 308 00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 4: if you can get him in there, you know he's 309 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 4: an underdog, which usually means it's going to be slightly 310 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:09,920 Speaker 4: less ownership. And then of course in all your contests, 311 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:11,400 Speaker 4: you want one of the guys in the main event. 312 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 4: Their salaries are both pretty reasonable, so whoever gets the 313 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:16,720 Speaker 4: win is almost definitely going to be in the optimal lineup. 314 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 5: Unlike the last couple of cards. 315 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:21,240 Speaker 4: Where we've seen real expensive main event favorites not make 316 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 4: the best lineups. 317 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess the question I have is, like we 318 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 2: discussed earlier when we talked about the main event, especially 319 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 2: with Hospital, he doesn't you know, the fight doesn't last 320 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 2: very long. That has to play a factor right into 321 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 2: accumulating fantasy points, Like there's concern that the fight doesn't 322 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:40,960 Speaker 2: go long enough where you can't rack up points. 323 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:44,520 Speaker 4: Right, there is, but they get so much more points 324 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 4: for ending a fight early by stoppage than they do late. 325 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 4: And that's kind of the thesis with these five round 326 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 4: fights is they're either guaranteed an early stoppage or they 327 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 4: get ten extra minutes to fight, So one way or 328 00:14:54,280 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 4: the other, there's usually enough opportunity of score points. The 329 00:14:57,440 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 4: only time I really like fading those is when one 330 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 4: of the fighters is exceedingly expensive and we don't think 331 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:04,560 Speaker 4: he's likely to put up a lot of points. 332 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:05,120 Speaker 5: Because that makes it hard. 333 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 4: But when these guys are both was a eighty three 334 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:11,920 Speaker 4: hundred and seventy nine, I think whoever wins that at. 335 00:15:11,800 --> 00:15:13,560 Speaker 5: Those salaries is almost definitely going to be in the 336 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 5: best lineup. And then for cash, you just play both 337 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:17,480 Speaker 5: of them and you're guaranteed the win. 338 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, and speaking of cash games, give us some value 339 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 2: fighters that you're eyeing for the contest. 340 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:26,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I mentioned Milana Carolina earlier her fight. 341 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 4: I think she's a pretty live underdog to win, but 342 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:31,800 Speaker 4: that fight has one of the longest odds of being 343 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:34,600 Speaker 4: stopped early. She strikes with pretty good volume, so she 344 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 4: can put up some points even if she doesn't get 345 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:38,440 Speaker 4: the win. And then I also like Jack Shore against 346 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:40,600 Speaker 4: Timervaliev for similar logic. 347 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 5: That one. I had to look up what the stoppage 348 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 5: line is on that. 349 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 4: It is plus one sixty five to stop, so we 350 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 4: can get fifteen minutes out of him. He attempts a 351 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 4: ton of takedowns. He gets a couple of those. That 352 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:53,200 Speaker 4: helps you on the scoring wise, even if he doesn't 353 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 4: get the win. So you're a little bit safer picks. 354 00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 4: They're a little bit higher floor. 355 00:15:57,080 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 2: Sean, You got any thoughts on these on these picks, 356 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:02,240 Speaker 2: I know built this is more of Billy's wheelhouse here, 357 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 2: but anything to add Yeah. 358 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:07,560 Speaker 3: He mentioned McCann Carolina fight. You know, McCann being from England, 359 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 3: I'd say McCann to win by split decision is probably 360 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 3: minus one thousand in that fight, So I'd just be 361 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 3: a little careful about Luana Carolina not getting the scorecards. 362 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:19,280 Speaker 3: That's that's going to be a gross, ugly fight that 363 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:22,240 Speaker 3: is going to be very difficult to score. So the 364 00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 3: one that really stuck out to me was Pavovic. He's 365 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:28,040 Speaker 3: even money basically to win in the first round, and 366 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 3: if he doesn't, I think of Durrakamov is going to 367 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 3: have a pretty strong chance to grapple him in rounds 368 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:36,920 Speaker 3: two and three. So Shamil potentially as an underdog play 369 00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:39,600 Speaker 3: might be might be in my DFS lineups. I think 370 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 3: he might be able to grapple in the late rounds 371 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 3: or potentially secure laid finish. 372 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 2: Five fighters with a salary north of nine thousand dollars. 373 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 2: So there's just a little bit more to work with. 374 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:51,920 Speaker 2: It feels like, as Billy mentioned in previous weeks, Okay, 375 00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:54,000 Speaker 2: we can't wrap up the pod until we get to 376 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 2: our best bets for UFC Fight Night two O four Again, 377 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:00,640 Speaker 2: it's at the O two in London, and Sean, we'll 378 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 2: start with you best bet for the weekend. 379 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:05,119 Speaker 3: Yeah, we already talked about the coming of van between 380 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 3: Dan Hooker and Arnold Billy Allen and that's where I'm 381 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 3: going to go for my best bet, but it's not 382 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:12,159 Speaker 3: Dan Hooker. Billy and I disagreed on side, and I 383 00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:14,240 Speaker 3: think that's okay. This is going to be a really tough, close, 384 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 3: competitive fight, and if Billy's able to hit takedowns Arnold 385 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 3: Billy Allen, I think the clock is going to take 386 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,359 Speaker 3: away pretty quickly. So I've got this fight going to 387 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:25,479 Speaker 3: the distance two thirds of the time sixty seven percent 388 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 3: or minus two hundred implied. You can get a minus 389 00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:29,959 Speaker 3: one forty at bet MGM. I think that's a terrific 390 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 3: bet fight to go to a decision minus one forty 391 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:35,280 Speaker 3: at bet MGM. Expect us want to see the scorecards 392 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:37,440 Speaker 3: and Billy best bet. 393 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:38,360 Speaker 5: Yeah. 394 00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:40,440 Speaker 4: I mentioned him with the DFS, but I'm on Jack 395 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 4: Shor's money line. He's about even money. I also like 396 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:45,760 Speaker 4: him inside the distance at plus four fifty. He's fighting 397 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:48,439 Speaker 4: tim Arvaliev, who if you look up as a record, 398 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:50,720 Speaker 4: it shows that he's undefeated in the UFC, but he 399 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 4: was actually knocked out pretty badly by Trevan Jones's debut. 400 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,120 Speaker 4: I think Trevan Jones failed the post fight drug test, 401 00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:58,879 Speaker 4: so that's a no contest now. But Valiev is going 402 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 4: to be looking to bring it to the ground. He's 403 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 4: attempted takedowns in every round he's fought other than the 404 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 4: one in which he was knocked down by Jones, but 405 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:08,160 Speaker 4: his defensive grappling isn't as strong. He only defends takedowns 406 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:10,159 Speaker 4: at a fifty five percent clip. So I think of 407 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:12,440 Speaker 4: Shor's attempting takedowns too. It could be one of those 408 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 4: where whoever shoots first ends up on top. 409 00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 5: And you see that a lot with guys who are used. 410 00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:18,159 Speaker 4: To be in the one going for the takedown, they 411 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 4: never really have to defend them. So I like Jack 412 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:22,480 Speaker 4: Shore in that sense, and I also think he's got 413 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:24,639 Speaker 4: a stand up edge. He has better striking accuracy and 414 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:27,720 Speaker 4: defense in another four inches in reach, So for him 415 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:29,480 Speaker 4: to be even money and then plus four to fifty 416 00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:31,440 Speaker 4: to get a stoppage, I'm gonna sprinkle that a little bit. 417 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:34,159 Speaker 4: But yeah, that's gonna be the money line being my 418 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:34,920 Speaker 4: best bet on that. 419 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:38,359 Speaker 3: One, taking sure by decision plus two forty at Faeduel. 420 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:39,240 Speaker 5: I like that bet as well. 421 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:41,399 Speaker 2: Nice, very good. There are a lot of fights on 422 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:44,679 Speaker 2: this card folks that have shorter odds than usual weeks, 423 00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 2: so this should be a fun weekend at the two 424 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:50,840 Speaker 2: Arena in London. That's gonna do it this. 425 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 5: Week, folks. 426 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 2: That was your UFC Fight Night two to oh four 427 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 2: betting preview for Sean Zarillo and Billy Ward Brendan glass Sheeen. 428 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 2: Be sure to join us every Friday on the Action 429 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 2: Network podcast We Get You Set for UFC Fight Night. 430 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:07,240 Speaker 2: We bring you an episode every Friday to get you 431 00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:10,880 Speaker 2: ready for Saturday's cards. We will join you next week. 432 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:13,720 Speaker 2: Best of luck with all of your betting and daily 433 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:18,359 Speaker 2: fantasy needs and competition, and we will catch you next time.