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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Master's in

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Speaker 1: Business with Barry red Holds on Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: This week on the podcast, I have a delightful guest.

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Speaker 2: Kyla Scanlan is the person who created the phrase vibe session,

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Speaker 2: and twenty twenty two she wrote the book In This Economy,

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Speaker 2: How Money and Markets Really Work. She is quite an

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Speaker 2: accomplished twenty six year old who has built a career

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Speaker 2: as a investing and economic literacy expert, helping to educate

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Speaker 2: people about how the economy really works, why there's a

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Speaker 2: disconnect in what people feel versus what's really happening, what

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Speaker 2: we should think about things like centiment and the dollar,

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Speaker 2: and green energy, and go down the list. I thought

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Speaker 2: this was a fascinating conversation. I really enjoyed it, and

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Speaker 2: I think you will also. With no further ado, my

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Speaker 2: interview with Kyla Scanlin.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 2: Well, thank you so much for coming. I've been looking

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Speaker 2: forward to this since I got the book over the summer.

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Speaker 2: I will tell you I didn't see many other people

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Speaker 2: on the beach in the Hampton during this, but I

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Speaker 2: enjoyed it. It's filled with fun, not only concepts, but

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Speaker 2: sketches and illustrations, and I could tell you had some

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Speaker 2: fun writing this.

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Speaker 1: Yeah I did.

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Speaker 2: So let's talk a little bit about your background. You

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Speaker 2: graduate Western Kentucky in twenty nineteen, triple major financial management, economics,

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Speaker 2: and business data Analytics. That sounds like you knew exactly

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Speaker 2: what you wanted to do.

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Speaker 1: Well I didn't.

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Speaker 2: I did not.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I didn't even know you can major in economics

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Speaker 1: til I got to college.

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Speaker 2: But in college those three things scream markets and the economy, right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it was like kind of funny. I

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Speaker 1: don't know why they were such a big disconnect, but

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Speaker 1: I was trading options when I was in high school

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Speaker 1: and I got to college and I was like, oh,

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Speaker 1: I'll just be an engineer, like I'll, you know, do

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Speaker 1: that path. And then I took an econ class as

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Speaker 1: a general education course and I just loved it. And

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Speaker 1: then I was like, oh, you can actually major in finance,

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Speaker 1: and like you can trade options for a living, which

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Speaker 1: I didn't end up doing for obvious reasons. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: so I really fell in love with the data and

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Speaker 1: with the analysis, and just the classes were so fun.

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Speaker 1: I had a great time.

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Speaker 2: You know, the old options traders joke, right, No, I

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Speaker 2: don't really. Option traders never die. Oh they just expired, right,

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Speaker 2: I mean that's a that's a classic. We've all dabbled

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Speaker 2: with options. I find them compelling and addictive. But I

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Speaker 2: am you know, ninety percent investor ten degenerate speculator. Options

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Speaker 2: are perfect for that. How did you do as an

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Speaker 2: option straight?

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Speaker 1: I did poorly, which is why I don't really do

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Speaker 1: it anymore. More of a buy and hold sort of person.

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Speaker 2: There you go.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but options were fun. It taught me a lot

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Speaker 1: about risk, It taught me a lot about manage. It

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Speaker 1: was great.

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Speaker 2: So so you you graduate, you joined Capital Group as

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Speaker 2: an associate, pretty much right into the pandemic. Tell us

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Speaker 2: what you were doing at Capital Group when? What was

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Speaker 2: it like starting work right into that mess?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? It was hard. I remember I graduated, you know,

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Speaker 1: basically June of twenty nineteen, and I moved out to

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Speaker 1: LA from Kentucky like five days after I graduated school.

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Speaker 1: Had never been to LA before. That's where Capitol Group

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Speaker 1: is based. And you know, six months later, pandemic happens.

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Speaker 1: But Capitol Group was wonderful. There was a rotational program

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Speaker 1: that I was a part of called the cap Group,

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Speaker 1: and so I got to experience fixed income, I got

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Speaker 1: to sit on an equity desk, I got to do

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Speaker 1: macroeconomic research, I got to do a big stock project.

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Speaker 1: But I ended up leaving to focus more on financial

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Speaker 1: education because that's where I felt I wanted to be,

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Speaker 1: which was really surprising. I thought I'd been the rest

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Speaker 1: of my life at Capital Group. It was kind of

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Speaker 1: the perfect path. And then I was like, I just

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Speaker 1: I can't know what happens without like trying to do this,

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Speaker 1: to do the financial education stuff.

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Speaker 2: I can't imagine two places more different than Kentucky and LA.

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Speaker 2: What was that transition? Like?

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Speaker 1: It was really hard. Yeah, I didn't understand what it

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Speaker 1: was like to live in a big city. I'd never

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Speaker 1: been to New York at that point, I'd never really

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Speaker 1: left Kentucky those couple of years, the whole life that

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Speaker 1: I had there, And yeah, I mean I used to

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Speaker 1: have to be at Capitol Group very early in the

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Speaker 1: morning because it's on the West coast. We to East

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Speaker 1: coast hours, and so I would just like walk around

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Speaker 1: really early in the morning in LA and that's not

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Speaker 1: so safe. And I got a couple of run ins there.

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Speaker 2: Oh no kidding, yeah, yeah, because I just.

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Speaker 1: Didn't know any better, Like nobody gives you a playbook

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Speaker 1: when you moved to la on, like how to live there,

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Speaker 1: and so it was a really good experience. The pandemic,

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Speaker 1: of course, was difficult, but it definitely helped me grow

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Speaker 1: a lot faster being in a big city like that.

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Speaker 2: Did the pandemic and being locked down at home lead

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Speaker 2: to you writing this book?

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Speaker 1: I think so. Yeah. I had a blog all throughout college,

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Speaker 1: ending with Julie actually was reading when I was in

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Speaker 1: college was crazy, but it was called scan lit on Stocks,

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Speaker 1: and so I'd always been really passionate about writing. I

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Speaker 1: had always been really passionate about sharing ideas. And then

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Speaker 1: when I got to Capitol Group, obviously I was under compliance.

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Speaker 1: They really you really can't be talking about stocks online.

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Speaker 1: That's like not cool, and I was like, okay, fine.

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Speaker 1: So I started doing these big data analysis pieces and

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Speaker 1: like harvesting data from the various apps I would do that.

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Speaker 2: You could do just not specific stocks.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, not specific stocks. So I do things like with

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Speaker 1: the ride, shared data with Uber and Lyft that I had,

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Speaker 1: like dating app data, like all these different projects. But

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Speaker 1: then during the pandemic, I think a lot of people,

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Speaker 1: myself included, were like, oh, you know, maybe I don't

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Speaker 1: want to spend the rest of my life doing this thing,

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Speaker 1: and like, I do want to take a chance because

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Speaker 1: I don't know what's going to happen next. And so

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Speaker 1: that's how I ended up leaving Capitol Group, which was

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Speaker 1: really scary, and I joined a tech startup called on

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Speaker 1: Deck and built out their investment education arm, and then

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Speaker 1: I started doing social media basically at the same time time.

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Speaker 2: So it's funny I had the exact same experience with

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Speaker 2: compliance at a brokerage firm in the early two thousands

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Speaker 2: when I launched the Big Picture, write whatever you want,

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Speaker 2: just don't recommend or buy or sell any specific stocks.

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Speaker 2: You know, if you stay away from that, you're fine,

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Speaker 2: which in hindsight was pretty hip. A lot of places

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Speaker 2: wouldn't even have given you that much. But data analytics

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Speaker 2: knock yourself out whatever you want to do.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it was just cool. So the name of the

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Speaker 1: blog changed the scaling on stocks or scaling on stats,

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Speaker 1: sorry on stats on stats. Yeah, I didn't stay the same.

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Speaker 2: Can't scaling on stocks to scaling on stats. So I'm

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Speaker 2: fascinated by the partnership you have with O'Shaughnessy Ventures. I

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Speaker 2: love what Jim is doing with that tell us about

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Speaker 2: that experience and that help you transition to what you're

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Speaker 2: doing today.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I know, Jim O'Shaughnessy is amazing. So I approached

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Speaker 1: him with an idea for a financial education startup and

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Speaker 1: he had been you know, really supportive him Patrick, both

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Speaker 1: his son, and I was like, hey, Jim, like, I'm

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Speaker 1: thinking about starting this tech company that might do financial education,

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Speaker 1: and he was like, do you have a plan? And

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Speaker 1: I was like sort of. And then this book deal

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Speaker 1: came along, and so I was like, it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: really difficult for me to build a company and then

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Speaker 1: also write a book. And I ended up deciding to

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Speaker 1: focus fully on the book, and so Jim kept me

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Speaker 1: on the team as an entrepreneur in residence for a year,

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Speaker 1: and so that was neat. It was just kind of

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Speaker 1: like almost a fellowship of sorts that supported me as

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Speaker 1: I did this like book endeavor.

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Speaker 2: Were you the first entrepreneur in residents that he did,

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Speaker 2: because now O'Shaughnessy Adventures almost does like a MacArthur grants

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Speaker 2: to a number of people. Were you literally the first one?

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Speaker 1: I was the first one. Yeah, yeah, it was really cool.

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Speaker 1: I think what he's doing is incredible. It's really nice

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Speaker 1: to see. I guess I guess you'd call it venture

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Speaker 1: capital money, you know, be used in that way, like just.

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Speaker 2: Just less focused on traditional technology companies and more towards

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Speaker 2: content orient of things. Is that is that a fair test?

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Speaker 1: And like maybe stuff that isn't going to have a

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Speaker 1: media returns, like it's not so much a multiple, which

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Speaker 1: I think traditional VC tends to focus heavily on because

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Speaker 1: that's their whole game. But I think he is like, okay,

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Speaker 1: like there's a bunch of people who need just a

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Speaker 1: little bit of money, right right, Like I didn't. They

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Speaker 1: didn't give me a ton of money, but it was

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Speaker 1: enough for me to be like, Okay, I'm safe to

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Speaker 1: focus on like this project that is going to take

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Speaker 1: up so much of my time, but also eat away

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Speaker 1: at the other projects that would have earned me money.

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Speaker 2: Huh. Really kind of interesting. So at your YouTube channel,

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Speaker 2: you do a lot of short clips, explaner videos, short

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Speaker 2: form contents on financial topics, really just financial literacy and education.

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Speaker 2: What motivated this idea? This is not your typical Most

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Speaker 2: people go through a cycle of working their way through

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Speaker 2: various aspects of Wall Street before they at a sheer frustration,

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Speaker 2: say hey, we need a lot more financial literacy and

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Speaker 2: we don't have it. What led you to financial logic

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Speaker 2: so young?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think growing up in Kentucky you

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Speaker 1: just kind of see like financial literacy. And I sold cars.

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Speaker 1: I sold hun days for a summer, and I think

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Speaker 1: that was really formative because people would come in the

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Speaker 1: car lot and they wouldn't even really know what an

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Speaker 1: interest rate was, right, And so you were signing these

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Speaker 1: people on eighty four month, you know, car.

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Speaker 2: Leading four months, believe it Monday. By the way, you're

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Speaker 2: not paying off a Ferrari, You're paying off on Monday.

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Speaker 1: Day, right, Yeah, And like you'd have to do all

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Speaker 1: sorts of financing tricks to make sure they could get

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Speaker 1: a card, even if their credit wasn't so good. And

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Speaker 1: so I just saw a lot and I saw a

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Speaker 1: lot of people that could have possibly just been helped

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Speaker 1: if somebody had taught them what an interest rate was,

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Speaker 1: if somebody had taught them like what a car payment meant,

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Speaker 1: if what appreciation was right. And so that was when

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Speaker 1: I was nineteen, and it stuck with me all Throughout

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Speaker 1: the rest of my time in college. I worked at

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Speaker 1: a small asset manager in Kentucky called Hilliard Lions, and

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Speaker 1: I saw a little bit of stuff there, but it

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Speaker 1: was really the car dealership and just my time growing

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Speaker 1: up in Kentucky that was so formative to this idea

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Speaker 1: that financial education really matters. Like the fact that I

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Speaker 1: didn't know economics was a major until I got to college,

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Speaker 1: Like is it something that should happen? Right? And so

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Speaker 1: I think that's the goal is just like talk about

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Speaker 1: econ more, make it more interesting for people, bring more

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Speaker 1: people into the fold, because not only will they learn

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Speaker 1: more and hopefully make better decisions, but it can also

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Speaker 1: put a lot of people on a path that they

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Speaker 1: might not have gone on in the first place.

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Speaker 2: So I'm a little older than you, just to touch

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Speaker 2: when I was in middle school, in high school, this

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Speaker 2: is how long ago the boys would get segmented off

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Speaker 2: into shop class, where you would lose a finger if

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Speaker 2: you weren't paying attention. And the girls, and I'm saying

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Speaker 2: boys and girls purposefully because we were ten and twelve,

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Speaker 2: they would get shuffled off this way into home economics,

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Speaker 2: which has much less to do with economics than you

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Speaker 2: would imagine. It's more about housekeeping and cleaning and cooking,

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Speaker 2: not here's how to manage a household budget. People are

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Speaker 2: parennially discussing about bringing things like Civics back to high school,

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Speaker 2: bringing things like basic budgeting and economics. It never seems

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Speaker 2: to happen. How important is it to teach just basic economics,

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Speaker 2: basic budgeting, basic things that we take for granted to

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Speaker 2: high school kids.

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Speaker 1: I think it's important. Would you agree?

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Speaker 2: One hundred percent? I'm you know, it's amazing. I can't

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Speaker 2: remember the last time I use calculus, but I deal

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Speaker 2: with a budget every day. I have a running total

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Speaker 2: of my checking account in my head. I know where

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Speaker 2: my investments are. These are all skills, you know, autodidactism.

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Speaker 2: Teaching yourself this you kind of forced to unless you

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Speaker 2: study this as a major in college. Nobody teaches you

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Speaker 2: how to do this. It's just trial and error, and

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Speaker 2: hopefully the errors aren't too expensive. So I'm completely in

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Speaker 2: agreement with you on that. And to take it a

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Speaker 2: step further, the big challenge with financial literacy is it

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Speaker 2: has a very short half life. Even people who are

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Speaker 2: fairly financially literate, you know, six to twelve months later,

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Speaker 2: half that stuff is gone, So you have to keep

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Speaker 2: drilling into people. Here's how this works. Here is what happens.

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Speaker 2: There's something you wrote sort of related to what we're

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Speaker 2: going to talk about later that I want to bring

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Speaker 2: out here. A quote from the book in This Economy,

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Speaker 2: which is you write that people are the economy, So

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Speaker 2: let's make the economy about the people. Explain the thinking

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Speaker 2: behind that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the general idea there is kind of

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Speaker 1: tied into the vibe session where it's to say, idea

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Speaker 1: that like how people feel really matters, like how people

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Speaker 1: feel about their economic circumstances, how they feel about their

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Speaker 1: ability to have upward mobility. Basically, like how people are

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Speaker 1: thinking about themselves is going to influence how the economy

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Speaker 1: succeeds or fails. And so I think that's just something

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Speaker 1: I tried to center throughout the book, was that ultimately,

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Speaker 1: people and the decisions that they make are the entire economy, right,

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Speaker 1: Like everything that we do is the economy, Like a

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Speaker 1: coffee cup is an economic transaction, the labor of the beans,

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Speaker 1: the supply chain, all of those things. And throughout the

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Speaker 1: book I tried to center people because I feel like

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Speaker 1: most of the time in economics education. The reason it

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Speaker 1: doesn't work in high schools is because the kids are like,

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Speaker 1: this doesn't really relate to me. I don't really understand budgeting,

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Speaker 1: Like I don't have any tangible experience with this.

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Speaker 2: Sure they do. They have an iPhone. Here's what the

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Speaker 2: iPhone costs. Here's the credit that's built in, here's the

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Speaker 2: interest rate impact on it. Here's supply chains from a million,

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Speaker 2: here's what you pay for apps. Like, I think you

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Speaker 2: could take an iPhone and teach kids everything they need

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Speaker 2: to know about the economy, markets, and budgeting one device. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: No, I think that's a great idea. And that is

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Speaker 1: an experience with the economy, and it's a people centric one, right,

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Speaker 1: And so that's exactly it is, Like you have to

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Speaker 1: sort of center it on people's lived experiences so that

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Speaker 1: way it all feels relatable.

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Speaker 2: And so this theme comes up over and over again.

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Speaker 2: You can't separate the economy from people. It's one and

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Speaker 2: the same, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I would. I would definitely say so. Some people

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Speaker 1: might argue with that, but I think that that is

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Speaker 1: ignoring the fact that like all the decisions that people make,

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Speaker 1: you know, consumer spending is such a big part of

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Speaker 1: the economy. Government spending, all of these things, and those

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Speaker 1: are all people making decisions, right.

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Speaker 2: I have to ask you, you're the ripe old age

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Speaker 2: of twenty six. What led you a few years ago

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Speaker 2: to say, I know, I'm going to write an economics book.

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Speaker 1: Well, so it actually I've always really loved writing. I

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Speaker 1: wrote these books eight about a Penguin, and so I've

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Speaker 1: always been writing. And I wrote a book a book,

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Speaker 1: you know, quote unquote every year for I don't know,

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Speaker 1: five or six years after that little Penguin book, and

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Speaker 1: so being an author had always been something I was

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Speaker 1: really excited about. I never thought I'd have the opportunity

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Speaker 1: so early. I never actually thought I'd have the opportunity

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Speaker 1: to be a published author. But how it came about

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Speaker 1: was I published this piece with New York Times Opinion

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Speaker 1: on the Blob session, and Penguin Random House approached me

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Speaker 1: and they were like, have you ever thought about writing

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Speaker 1: a book? And I was like, yeah, I have. And

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Speaker 1: we came up with this idea to do almost like

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Speaker 1: a beginner Guide to the Economy, but with sixty illustrations,

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Speaker 1: all done by me, just doing it in a much

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Speaker 1: more fun and accessible way, you know, trying to make

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Speaker 1: an economic guide for the twenty first century.

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Speaker 2: It's funny you mentioned the penguin because in the book

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Speaker 2: you compare the labor market to a goat steadily climbing

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Speaker 2: a mountain, while the Fed actively trying to slow the

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Speaker 2: goat down in their progress. So, first, is this frequent

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Speaker 2: usage of animals and metaphors something you've been doing a while?

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Speaker 2: And what made you think of the labor market as

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Speaker 2: a goat and the Fed pulling the rope trying to

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Speaker 2: slow them down?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I know lots of metaphors in my in my writing.

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Speaker 1: I have a subject too, kylotisubsec dot com and I

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Speaker 1: always employ some sort of metaphor that I think my

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Speaker 1: readers are like, okay, you know, calm down. So the

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Speaker 1: book was definitely heavy with metaphors, but I really wanted

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Speaker 1: there to be tangible visualizations in the book. So the

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Speaker 1: beginning of the book is this economic Kingdom, because I

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Speaker 1: think the interconnectivity of the economy is where a lot

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Speaker 1: of people get stuck. It's like, well, how does the inflation,

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Speaker 1: How does inflation you know, influence libramarket how do they work? Like,

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Speaker 1: how does the Fed influence labor market, How does the

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Speaker 1: Fed influence inflation? How does fiscal policy work? What does

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Speaker 1: the dollar do? So I drew that at the beginning

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Speaker 1: of the book as kind of like this economic kingdom

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Speaker 1: land where all the castles are interacting, and then yeah,

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Speaker 1: the Fed and the labor market mountain or the Fed

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Speaker 1: and the mountain goat. It was just another metaphor on

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Speaker 1: top of that.

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Speaker 2: So you tackle a number of weighty topics in the book.

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Speaker 2: Let's do a speed round. Tell me what people either

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Speaker 2: get wrong or don't understand about each of these issues.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with national debt.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think this is a tough one because

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Speaker 1: sometimes people are right, but a lot of people think

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Speaker 1: it's solely unsustainable, like the US is going to go bankrupt.

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Speaker 1: And there's definitely a plausible case that the US could

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Speaker 1: go bankrupt, especially because we have that debt ceiling situation

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Speaker 1: that's coming up in I think twenty six days as

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Speaker 1: of time we're recording, And so a lot of people

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Speaker 1: get that wrong where they are like, oh, the national

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Speaker 1: debt's going to explode, the dollar is going to not

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Speaker 1: become the reserve currency anymore.

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Speaker 2: By the way, I've been hearing that since I was

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Speaker 2: in college, since Reagan was president, and it's always it

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Speaker 2: has yet to be yeah and wrong. I think if

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Speaker 2: you're wrong for half a century, you're not early, You're

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Speaker 2: just wrong.

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Speaker 1: You're wrong absolutely, And like you could say, maybe in

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Speaker 1: five hundred years the dollar will be reserve barranty, and

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Speaker 1: then I.

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Speaker 2: Won't even give you. I'll give you two hundred years,

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Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty years.

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Speaker 1: But if you're dead, and like, are you still right?

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Speaker 1: If you're dead, you know.

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Speaker 2: More importantly, does it even matter? I don't know right

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Speaker 2: at that point. Recessions? What do people get wrong about recessions?

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Speaker 1: Two quarters of negative GDP growth?

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Speaker 2: That is a pet peeve of mine that I have

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Speaker 2: been pushing back against for years. It's there have consistently

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Speaker 2: been two quarters of negative GDP that haven't been recessionary.

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Speaker 2: And if you look at what took place in twenty

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Speaker 2: one and twenty two, remember GDP. People don't realize this.

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Speaker 2: GDP is reported in real terms, meaning inflation adjusted terms.

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Speaker 2: When you have two negative quarters, maybe it means the

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Speaker 2: economy is slowing down, or maybe it means the economy

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Speaker 2: is overheating and prices are going up. Those are two

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Speaker 2: totally different things, aren't they. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely. I think a lot of people get stuck on

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Speaker 1: that one. That is unpopular, Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Very unpopular. What about labor market dynamics? What don't people

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Speaker 2: understand about that?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think the biggest one here is that

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Speaker 1: when the labor force participation read expands, the unemployment rate

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Speaker 1: can still go go up. That's a tough one because

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Speaker 1: people are like, oh, like, well, the unemployment rate is

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Speaker 1: going up, so people are losing their jobs. But sometimes

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Speaker 1: it's just more people are entering labor force.

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Speaker 2: I like to call that denominator blindness, because people don't

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Speaker 2: pay attention. They just see the big, scary number. They

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Speaker 2: don't see the context of the larger data set underneath, Like, hey,

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Speaker 2: this company's laying out laying off ten thousand people. Is

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Speaker 2: that a bad thing? Do they have twenty thousand people?

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Speaker 2: Or is it Walmart with four million and ten thousand?

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Speaker 2: Is you know a rounding error? It's one out of

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Speaker 2: one person at every fourth store something crazy like that.

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Speaker 2: People ignore the broader context. Then you talk about context

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Speaker 2: and framing throughout the book. What about housing market issues

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Speaker 2: and the problem with affordable housing and first time home buyers.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, housing is something I spend a ton of time

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Speaker 1: on right now. I mean, I think the biggest issue

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Speaker 1: is that people think that expanding the housing supply will

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Speaker 1: make all home values go down. That's not necessarily the case,

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Speaker 1: but it's very important to expand housing supply. It's very

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Speaker 1: important that people have access to housing. So I think

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Speaker 1: that's a big one. There's a lot of nimbiism that

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Speaker 1: can arise. And then also, this is something that I

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Speaker 1: don't think a lot of people realize, is that if

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Speaker 1: you have a mortgage, you have to have insurance.

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Speaker 2: Which is another crisis you talk about.

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Speaker 1: I'm really concerned about insurance right now. But yeah, I

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Speaker 1: would say those are the two things with housing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Right. There was an interesting piece that came out recently.

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Speaker 2: I don't remember if it was Bloomberg or somewhere else,

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Speaker 2: but I definitely soared in the past two weeks that

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Speaker 2: the states that build the most amount of houses are

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Speaker 2: having the fastest GDP. So if you look at places

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Speaker 2: like Florida and Texas, and I think we're probably at

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Speaker 2: peak Florida right now, but hold that aside. Florida cranking

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Speaker 2: up housing left and right. Texas builds a lot of houses.

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Speaker 2: When you look at even fairly robust economies California and

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Speaker 2: New York, they're growing much more slowly than those southern states,

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Speaker 2: and they have horrific nimbiism and really challenging to put

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Speaker 2: up new housing unless you're knocking down another house and

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Speaker 2: just replacing it, that you can do, but expanding the

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Speaker 2: amount of housing. Big problem in big states, Yeah, big problem.

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Speaker 1: Like it's kind of funny. I think we maybe saw

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Speaker 1: the same graph where it's like blue versus Red, Like

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Speaker 1: it's actually a political divide where red states are doing

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Speaker 1: a great job building more housing and blue states aren't.

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Speaker 1: And that's you know, we should all be building more

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Speaker 1: housing because that's kind of the housing theory of everything

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Speaker 1: is something I heavily subscribe to, where if people feel

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Speaker 1: like they're able to get a home, they're able to

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Speaker 1: afford it, it's not a big worry. You know, everything

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Speaker 1: will hopefully improve from that.

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Speaker 2: You buy a house, you're then gonna furnish it, You're

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Speaker 2: gonna buy durable goods and appliances. You're probably gonna buy

436
00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:02,480
Speaker 2: a horror to You're going to spend a ton of money.

437
00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 2: It means you have a job. It means you have

438
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 2: good credit. The housing theory of everything is pretty persuasive.

439
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 2: Tell us a little bit about that.

440
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think it's it's super important. It

441
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:15,119
Speaker 1: is that idea that like you will participate in the economy.

442
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 1: And I think also for you know, there's a chart

443
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:21,439
Speaker 1: the distributional financial assets from the Federal Reserve. It's one

444
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 1: of my favorite charts and I talk about it all

445
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:23,000
Speaker 1: the time.

446
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 2: Do you one flow of funds or something else.

447
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 1: It's a distribution of financial assets. So it shows the breakdown.

448
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:29,880
Speaker 2: Of wealth, oh by death stiles or yeah.

449
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, So like they'll have like the bottom fifty percent,

450
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 1: you know, the top zero point one percent and if

451
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 1: you look at the bottom fifty percent, all their wealth

452
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 1: is in their house. The top ten percent and it's

453
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:40,879
Speaker 1: in business ownership in equities. So there's a lesson to

454
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,640
Speaker 1: be learned there. But yeah, homes are a wealth generation

455
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 1: tool for a lot of people. And I think to

456
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 1: the point of, like, what do people get wrong about

457
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:52,400
Speaker 1: housing is that maybe it can't be both a speculative

458
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,160
Speaker 1: asset where you know, people do invest so much into

459
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 1: it and expect it to appreciate so rapidly in a

460
00:22:57,880 --> 00:22:59,399
Speaker 1: place to live. I think that's going to be a

461
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 1: tough dichotomy over the next to you year.

462
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:06,200
Speaker 2: Right, you know, my parents' generation when they were buying

463
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,880
Speaker 2: houses for twenty five thirty five, forty thousand dollars and

464
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 2: they live through that big inflationary cycle and then rate

465
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 2: crash over from nineteen eighty to twenty twenty two. You

466
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 2: have to live somewhere. Plus, if your home prices appreciate dramatically, hey,

467
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 2: that's great for your retirement. I'm not so convinced that

468
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 2: the current generation are going to have the same experience.

469
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,400
Speaker 1: I don't know if I'll ever be able to buy

470
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 1: a home, and I think a lot of people in

471
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,439
Speaker 1: my generation feel the same way. So I'm technically a

472
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:40,560
Speaker 1: Gen Z and one and four Gen Z do own homes,

473
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 1: but seventy eight percent of them got help from their

474
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 1: parents to buy that house. And so I think that's

475
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,240
Speaker 1: going to be the thing for this upcoming generation, is

476
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 1: that it's really going to help. If your parents did well,

477
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:55,640
Speaker 1: the greatest wealth the greatest generational wealth transfer is about

478
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:56,119
Speaker 1: to happen.

479
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 2: It's already happening right as it was. I keep seeing

480
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:03,120
Speaker 2: forty eight sixty eight trillion, Yeah, crazy, crazy number.

481
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 1: Ninety trillion by twenty forty five.

482
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:06,719
Speaker 2: Wood it's a ton of money.

483
00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 1: And yeah, some people will get a house out of that,

484
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 1: and I think that's going to be maybe the only

485
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 1: way that you get a house.

486
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:15,400
Speaker 2: Even if you get a down payment out of it,

487
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 2: it's still it's going to help move you in the

488
00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 2: right right direction. Public transit give us. What are people

489
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 2: getting wrong about public transit?

490
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,400
Speaker 1: I mean, I think people think it's like not useful

491
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 1: to have public transit. Whenever it come to New York,

492
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 1: it's so wonderful because the subway is so efficient. But

493
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:32,439
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people are like, no, we

494
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 1: should just expand the highways. But if we invested just

495
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 1: in light rail in these cities rather than adding another

496
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 1: lane to the highway, you could transmit so many more

497
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:45,439
Speaker 1: people and you could free up the gridlock. People really

498
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 1: love their cars in the United States because it's in

499
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:49,239
Speaker 1: you know, it's a place where you can go. It's

500
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 1: an individualistic thing. But if we are able to invest

501
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:56,399
Speaker 1: in public transit, the economy will grow. People will be

502
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:59,439
Speaker 1: able to get around better. Just imagine, like you know,

503
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 1: not how having to rely on a commute in order

504
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,359
Speaker 1: to go into work. It would expand the opportunities for

505
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 1: so many people who right now are maybe strapped by

506
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 1: not having a car or not wanting to do a

507
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 1: certain commute.

508
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 2: Right and the data shows adding additional lanes to highways

509
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:19,439
Speaker 2: just creates additional traffic. It does not solve the problem.

510
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 2: The other thing that's so interesting about housing is the

511
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 2: racial divide when you look at who's wealthy and who's

512
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 2: not and where it comes from. African Americans tend to

513
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:33,439
Speaker 2: own houses at a much lower percentage rate when you

514
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 2: look at the sources of wealth, let's call it the

515
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 2: we'll ignore the top quartile, like the bottom seventy five percent.

516
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 2: Very often people who are middle class or above. Housing

517
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 2: wealth is a big part of it, and you just

518
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:51,520
Speaker 2: see much lower ownership rates amongst blacks in America than

519
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:55,719
Speaker 2: amongst whites. Has a huge impact on income inequality by

520
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:57,040
Speaker 2: racial device.

521
00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 1: Oh no, we have true. I think I believe incoming

522
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:04,960
Speaker 1: equality has improved, but wealth inequality has worsened since the pandemic.

523
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,160
Speaker 2: Meaning the difference between salary and your assets.

524
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:10,240
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, yah. So like a lot of people you

525
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 1: know didn't appreciate or didn't get to benefit from the

526
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:16,359
Speaker 1: appreciate of the rise in stock market values, they didn't

527
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 1: have a home that was appreciating and value. Real wages

528
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 1: did go up, but you know that's not quite enough

529
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,360
Speaker 1: I think for a lot of people, and it has

530
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:28,360
Speaker 1: created a lot of disparity, and I think that's it's

531
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,880
Speaker 1: really tough to navigate that. I think the candidates for

532
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 1: the election are like trying to figure out, like, Okay,

533
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 1: how do we sort of fix this? And like one

534
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 1: way that the government could address it is by taxing

535
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 1: people so they have more money, so they could maybe

536
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,879
Speaker 1: distribute more money. But that's very unpopular, So like we

537
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 1: have to have a total rethink I think of these

538
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 1: social programs because we're like just helping people to close

539
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 1: that inequality gap because that is going to be a

540
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 1: massive issue over the next decade.

541
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:59,240
Speaker 2: And our last speed round question green energy. What are

542
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 2: your thoughts on renewable or green energy?

543
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,120
Speaker 1: Oh? I think it's so important. I mean, I think

544
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 1: the thing is a lot of people think it's all

545
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 1: or nothing. You kind of still have to have fossil

546
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 1: fuels as you try.

547
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 2: Natural gas going to be a transitional fuel for decades

548
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:13,640
Speaker 2: to come.

549
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:16,679
Speaker 1: Transitional is the perfect word for that. Yeah, you have

550
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,439
Speaker 1: to like still have all that stuff. You can't just

551
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 1: go green right away. But you know, solar power is

552
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:25,879
Speaker 1: becoming extraordinarily useful, you know, hydrogen, all that stuff is.

553
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:28,359
Speaker 2: Solar is now cheaper than coal, and it's about to

554
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 2: become cheaper than oil, which is a huge Like twenty

555
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:33,360
Speaker 2: years ago that was unthinkable, you.

556
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 1: Know, and it's exciting, and I think a lot of

557
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:38,359
Speaker 1: people are still stuck on, you know, oil being so important.

558
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:40,919
Speaker 1: But green energy is the only way that we can

559
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 1: move forward as a society. We're just going to have

560
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 1: to rely on the traditional fuels for a little longer.

561
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 2: Tell us about I like the way you phrase this,

562
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 2: the abundance mindset.

563
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 1: That's Derek Thompson's term from The Atlantic. Yeah, he's tremendous,

564
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 1: but that is kind of this idea that we tend

565
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:03,120
Speaker 1: to think limiting, right, Like we're like, oh, we can't

566
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 1: have all this, we can't have all this, we can't

567
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 1: have that, we can't do this, And Derek Thompson argues like,

568
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:10,119
Speaker 1: well we can, Like we can have abundance, like we

569
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:12,200
Speaker 1: can focus on immigration, we can build more housing, like,

570
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 1: we can have all these things. We can do green energy,

571
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 1: like we can do all of these things. Right, there's

572
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:18,919
Speaker 1: a Keynes quote.

573
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:22,640
Speaker 2: That's about that about scare the scarcity mindset right where.

574
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 1: It's like if the I think it's if the government

575
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:26,399
Speaker 1: can pay for it, you can do it essentially, Is

576
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 1: that right?

577
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:28,679
Speaker 2: And why can't the government pay for it? If you

578
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 2: think about you know, it's ironic how often politicians ignore

579
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:37,920
Speaker 2: what lord Kin's taught us a century ago, which is,

580
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 2: during economic contractions, the government should spend to make up

581
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 2: the short fall and consumer and business spending. What politicians

582
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 2: always tend to forget is and when the economy is expanding,

583
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 2: well then you pull back and let the private sector

584
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,120
Speaker 2: fill that gap. The problem is we never seem to

585
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:56,880
Speaker 2: pull back. It's it's pedal to the metal all the time.

586
00:28:57,040 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, which is that's going to be interesting with inurnching

587
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 1: that we were talking about, because the government's gonna probably

588
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 1: backstop all of that, and I don't know how that'll go.

589
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 2: But why should the government backstop that? If you move

590
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 2: to a part of the world that is being dramatically

591
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 2: affected by climate change. Oh and by the way, if

592
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 2: your state governor doesn't believe it and refuses to do

593
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 2: anything to moderate it, why do I, as someone in

594
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 2: a different part of the country have to bail out

595
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 2: your bad decision. It's one thing when a hurricane hits

596
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 2: and everybody is shocked. It's another thing when you're building

597
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 2: waterfront property and no private sector ensure will cover you

598
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 2: because they're like, no, the odds are you're gone in

599
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 2: ten to twenty years. We're not going to take that risk.

600
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 1: Yeah. I don't think the government should backstop those decisions,

601
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:51,160
Speaker 1: but I think it's going to be really tough because

602
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 1: there is that mindset where it's like, oh, I should

603
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:56,920
Speaker 1: be able to build wherever I want, and.

604
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 2: You can build wherever you want. Well, you just can't

605
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 2: ensure where if you want. Those are two very different

606
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 2: then yeah, but.

607
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 1: If people expect insurance and you can self ensure if

608
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 1: you do cash, but.

609
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, a bank will't finance you. So I remember during Sandy,

610
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 2: my wife and I went for a drive along Dune

611
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 2: Road out in the Hampton's and it was shocking to

612
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 2: see what essentially is a barrier island that's been there

613
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 2: for hundreds of years, the ocean going straight through it,

614
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 2: like there are parts where houses were floating away and

615
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 2: big gaps. It was crazy what had taken place there.

616
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 2: And the Army Corps of engineers come in and they

617
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 2: rebuild it. The only thing that really has changed is

618
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 2: that FEMA has mandated, I think you have to be

619
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 2: eleven feet above sea level above high tide, and so

620
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 2: all these houses are built on stilts, and so you

621
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 2: could kind of drive up to like the third or

622
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 2: fourth step, and so by the time you get to

623
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 2: the ground floor, you're relatively safe. If we get another sandy,

624
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 2: the house at least shouldn't wash away. But that doesn't

625
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 2: do any good if the rest of the barrier island

626
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 2: pus is the way, right, So should I know we

627
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 2: have a shortage of housing? Do we have a shortage

628
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 2: of housing that's ocean front?

629
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 1: I mean, that's a good question. It's like not only

630
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 1: ocean front though, Like insurers have pulled out of California too.

631
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 2: It was a wildfire, those fires, right.

632
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 1: And they've pulled out of Louisiana for the same words

633
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,240
Speaker 1: of hurricanes. They pulled out of Florida because of the

634
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:26,239
Speaker 1: issues with hurricanes too, And so I think it's just

635
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 1: like there's an increasing climate risk, and that's across.

636
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 2: The board, right. It's one thing for politicians to argue

637
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 2: about climate risk, but when insurers say, oh no, we're

638
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:40,680
Speaker 2: not going to cover that because we've done the numbers.

639
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 2: This is an opinion they're uninsurable in that part of

640
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 2: the world or that part of the country. It really

641
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 2: raises some fascinating questions.

642
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, when Florida's second biggest insurer is the government, it's

643
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:55,040
Speaker 1: Citizens Insurance, And so that's kind of the funny situation

644
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 1: that we're going to be in. You know, natural disasters

645
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 1: are only increasing just because of what's happening to the environment,

646
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 1: which is why green energy is so important. And I

647
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 1: think that'll just be a big reckoning moment where it's like,

648
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 1: you know, housing is so important, but we also have

649
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 1: to have this huge conversation about how we're going to

650
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 1: ensure these homes right because insurance has gone up twenty

651
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 1: percent on average, I think since twenty twenty three across

652
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 1: the whole country. Like property insurance is a huge burden

653
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 1: for a lot of people right now, and that's something

654
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 1: that you have to consider with the broader conversation around

655
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 1: what does it mean to own a home in the

656
00:32:28,760 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 1: United States?

657
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 2: Right I recall when my mom moved to Florida, you know,

658
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:37,720
Speaker 2: decades ago, there was a fantastic arbitrage opportunity the cost

659
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 2: of living there was a fraction, real estate was a fraction.

660
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 2: Now between taxes, problems with insurance and all the HOA fees,

661
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 2: the homeowners association fees for condos and houses have gone

662
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:52,239
Speaker 2: up because their costs have gone so much up, it

663
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 2: doesn't feel like that it's a bargain anymore. Hey, maybe

664
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 2: you get nicer weather when there's not a hurricane, but

665
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 2: it doesn't seem to be the same bargain.

666
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 1: No. I think Florida is in a really unique spot

667
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 1: as a state because they there's nothing that's being done

668
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 1: to make the homes more ensurable. Because one way that

669
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 1: you could do that is to maybe invest in climate

670
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 1: resilient infrastructure.

671
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 2: I don't know, it's a hoax. We can't waste money

672
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 2: on that. Climate change is a hope.

673
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,719
Speaker 1: No, it's it's it's a And like there's other reasons

674
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 1: why insurance has increased other than climate, Like you do

675
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 1: have to talk about the reinsurance companies, the people who

676
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 1: ensure the insurance. They've raised greats. You know, inflation has

677
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 1: impacted the costs rebuilding the homes. So like there's other

678
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 1: reasons outside of climate change, But like we can't live

679
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 1: in this state of denial. Not to like turn this

680
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 1: into a climate change conversation, but it's.

681
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 2: A it's a factor, and I think it's a more

682
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 2: of a factor for your generation than my generation, because

683
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:49,280
Speaker 2: by the time climate change is really bad will be

684
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,719
Speaker 2: done and buried for a long time, You'll still be

685
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 2: clearing up the mess that I like to blame my

686
00:33:55,040 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 2: parents on. I'm semi green. You're probably much greener than me.

687
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 2: I have a hybrid, I have an electro vehicle. I also,

688
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,040
Speaker 2: you know, fly, and my house is probably too big

689
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:10,359
Speaker 2: relative to what I really need. But that's a very

690
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:14,959
Speaker 2: generational thing. You could see how people's carbon footprints really

691
00:34:15,040 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 2: vary with age. So what happened with the egg situation

692
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two? What did people get so wrong

693
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:24,720
Speaker 2: about that? Oh?

694
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,839
Speaker 1: Man, I think eggs were It's funny, like thinking back

695
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 1: to it, I'm like, that was so long ago now,

696
00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 1: but it was, you know.

697
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 2: It was a year or so, right, So there was

698
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 2: a chicken flu going around that was killing that millions

699
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 2: of hens, and people lost their mind when eggs were

700
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:42,000
Speaker 2: like seventy eight dollars a dozen.

701
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I know, people freaked out and they were

702
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:46,480
Speaker 1: like oh, you know, inflation is so bad. Everything is

703
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:49,359
Speaker 1: so bad. You know, the eggs, there's pray scouging going on,

704
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:51,880
Speaker 1: all this stuff, and it was really just kind of

705
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:54,840
Speaker 1: like a supply and demand misbalance because of the chicken flu.

706
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 2: And there was price gouging going on, just not with eggs,

707
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 2: of all the things. To point out to eggs was

708
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:03,560
Speaker 2: a legitimate Hey you kill fifty million chickens, guess what

709
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 2: less eggs.

710
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I remember there being egg shortage at the

711
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:09,240
Speaker 1: grocery store if people were freaking out. But it all,

712
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 1: I mean, it all calmed down like a month, like

713
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 1: it really normalized quite quickly.

714
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a pretty short gestation period for birds, right.

715
00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:20,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, they lay a lot of eggs. Good for us,

716
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 1: I guess when we eat them. But yeah, that was

717
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,400
Speaker 1: just kind of I think the a good example of

718
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:27,800
Speaker 1: you know, people and how important they are for the economy,

719
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 1: because how people freak out ultimately does impact how everyone

720
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 1: feels about things. Because that was kind of like mass

721
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:37,719
Speaker 1: hysteria in a really big way too, like the egg situation.

722
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 1: I mean, I remember some of my friends were texting

723
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 1: me about it, and they're like, Kylo, what's going on,

724
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 1: the eggs, like economically speaking, by.

725
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 2: The way, that that would take you a little thirty

726
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 2: seconds to figure out on Google, I'm always surprised, like,

727
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:53,240
Speaker 2: there there's an acronym that I haven't seen recently on Twitter,

728
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 2: but it used to be let me google that for

729
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 2: you lmgt me f y. And it's just like, come on,

730
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 2: why are you asking me so much of readily accessible answer?

731
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 2: Ask something more complicated. But people see highering prices, they

732
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:09,319
Speaker 2: lose their mind. Let's talk about something else that I

733
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:14,280
Speaker 2: found fascinating from the book. People's eyeballs are now dollar signs.

734
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 2: Explain what you mean by that?

735
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:17,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is something I talk a lot about

736
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:20,799
Speaker 1: the presentations I give too, because the attention economy is

737
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 1: really important. I think that our eyeballs are the most

738
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 1: expensive things that we have because advertisers will pay so

739
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:30,839
Speaker 1: much to acquire them, and so I think that is

740
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 1: both good and bad, right, Like it's valuable as a

741
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 1: consumer because you kind of ordered the product, and so

742
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:38,240
Speaker 1: a lot of products can be free, like the social

743
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 1: networking sites. But I think there's this general sense of

744
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:44,399
Speaker 1: exhaustion where people are like, I'm really sick of being

745
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,919
Speaker 1: advertised too. I know how expensive. My attention is and

746
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,319
Speaker 1: I don't want to pay attention anymore. And so I

747
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:51,920
Speaker 1: think that's kind of what we're seeing with the attention

748
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 1: economy is people are quite tired of it because their

749
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 1: attention is so valuable.

750
00:36:56,080 --> 00:37:00,720
Speaker 2: And you mentioned advertising. The younger guys in my office,

751
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 2: half their wardrobe comes from Instagram. They see something they like,

752
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 2: click and buy it right from that. It's it's it's

753
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 2: almost as if the advertisers are being removed from the middle.

754
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 2: It's here's an influencer wearing this, Oh I like that, Bang,

755
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:18,879
Speaker 2: You're purchasing it in real time.

756
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, Instagram shopping is extraordinarily powerful, and that's true, is

757
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:26,399
Speaker 1: people like and that's kind of I think the exhaustion too,

758
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 1: Like you do see sort of this influencer pushback. I

759
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:30,960
Speaker 1: wrote about this at the end of last year, like

760
00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 1: the influencer apocalypse that could be upon us, where people

761
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 1: are very sick of like not knowing what's an advertisement

762
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:40,880
Speaker 1: and whatsnot. But there's also such power in the curation

763
00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:44,239
Speaker 1: that influencers provide that I think it's more just people

764
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 1: are like, I don't want to deal with it, but

765
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:48,960
Speaker 1: I think it's really valuable and the influencers do get

766
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,920
Speaker 1: paid quite a bit of a course to be essentially

767
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 1: a billboard for these companies.

768
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:55,879
Speaker 2: Right. You know, it's funny because you and I both

769
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:58,440
Speaker 2: do a lot of content marketing, which is a phrase

770
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:02,360
Speaker 2: I don't love. But anybody who pays attention to someone

771
00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:05,560
Speaker 2: who does that, it's because, hey, I've been following them

772
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 2: for a while. I understand their process. I trust their judgment.

773
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:12,200
Speaker 2: They're not for sale, and if they're telling me go

774
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 2: read this or go look at that, it's because they've

775
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:18,080
Speaker 2: done it and they think it's valuable. Like is that

776
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 2: going to go away? Also? At what point how far

777
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:24,400
Speaker 2: down does the influence or apocalypse go? I don't know,

778
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 2: he asked self interestedly, Right.

779
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 1: Like what do you think? Yeah? I wrote this piece

780
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 1: in February of this year around trust and because I

781
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:38,319
Speaker 1: think trust is a very expensive commodity too, and I

782
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:41,040
Speaker 1: think that trust is you know, there's not a lot

783
00:38:41,080 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 1: of it going around. It's very difficult to gain trust,

784
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:45,319
Speaker 1: and so I think people will still have, you know,

785
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 1: people like you where they trust, they trust your judgment.

786
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 1: They're like, he knows what he's talking about. He's not

787
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 1: going to try and pedle me a product. But like,

788
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 1: once you do pedal, somebody a.

789
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:57,120
Speaker 2: Product now variable of newit. He's coming to you from right.

790
00:38:57,280 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 2: Once that happens.

791
00:38:58,120 --> 00:39:00,239
Speaker 1: Once that happens, trust you're done.

792
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:02,960
Speaker 2: So I've told this war story a million times, but

793
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 2: it's just so perfect. The same day, during the lockdown,

794
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:08,360
Speaker 2: I want to say it was like March or April

795
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 2: early in twenty twenty. No, maybe it's May or June,

796
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 2: but you know, first half of the year still early days.

797
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 2: I get an email from two different companies the same day,

798
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 2: and one was Delta saying, hey, listen, we know you're

799
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:26,359
Speaker 2: stuck at home and this sucks and everybody's really frustrated.

800
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:29,400
Speaker 2: One thing you don't have to worry about are your miles.

801
00:39:29,440 --> 00:39:34,719
Speaker 2: They're gonna last forever. And your silver medallion status now platinum.

802
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 2: Your silver medallion status won't expire, will extend it for

803
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 2: another eighteen months. You don't have to worry about it.

804
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:44,000
Speaker 2: Once you're ready to once this ends and you're ready

805
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 2: to start traveling, Delta is ready when you are. And

806
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:49,439
Speaker 2: I'm like, holy cow, that's fantastic. And then I read

807
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 2: the next email from Starbucks and it was, hey, your

808
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:58,120
Speaker 2: Starbucks points, which are nonsensical things that you get a

809
00:39:58,160 --> 00:40:01,319
Speaker 2: free latte if you, you know, buy enough stuff, they're

810
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 2: gonna expire at the end of the month, so go

811
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 2: out and use them right away. And it's like, are

812
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 2: you kidding me? I don't know if it was the juxtaposition,

813
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 2: but I know that since then, I fly Delta a

814
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:14,960
Speaker 2: whole lot and I go to Starbucks a whole lot less.

815
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:18,440
Speaker 2: And I don't know if the guy from Chipotle is

816
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 2: gonna do anything about that, but it just seemed like

817
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 2: such a petty, silly, panicky thing to do. Like, wait,

818
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 2: your cost of food is like the least expensive part

819
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:34,319
Speaker 2: of the real estate, the labor, everything you do. My

820
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:38,399
Speaker 2: dumb egg white whole wheat McMuffin, you're gonna just take

821
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 2: that because we're in the middle of a pandemic. Nobody's

822
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 2: going to your store, don't you want to encourage. I

823
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 2: guess that was their attempt use it or lose it.

824
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:52,920
Speaker 2: That look, I'm curious your thoughts on how does corporate

825
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:59,320
Speaker 2: America capture and maintain trust from people who my generation

826
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 2: is arguable will be more loyal to brands like my

827
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 2: neighbor's growing up. He's a Ford guy, he's a Chevy guy.

828
00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 2: I don't know if that sort of brand loyalty really

829
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 2: exists anymore.

830
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 1: There's a really good piece called Life After Lifestyle by

831
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:17,919
Speaker 1: Toby Shoren, and he kind of talks about this, how

832
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:21,319
Speaker 1: like some parts of brands are influencing culture, but it's

833
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:24,319
Speaker 1: not the traditional brands. So it'd be brands like you

834
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:26,759
Speaker 1: know how your office guys go on Instagram. It would

835
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:29,400
Speaker 1: be like all Birds. All Birds is now a terrible stock.

836
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:31,480
Speaker 1: But that's just one example, like where.

837
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:33,600
Speaker 2: Oh god, we've had those for like seven eight years,

838
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:35,279
Speaker 2: that's like mid twenty ten.

839
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:38,040
Speaker 1: But they were kind of like the pinnacle of like

840
00:41:38,080 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 1: forming some part of culture and some sort of brand identity.

841
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:44,919
Speaker 1: But as you're saying, people jumped immediately to the next thing.

842
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:48,240
Speaker 1: So I don't think it's like cohesive brands stories anymore.

843
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:50,719
Speaker 1: It's kind of like these brands that patch together to

844
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:53,000
Speaker 1: create like an archetype of a person.

845
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 2: Especially in fashion that changes so rapidly. Although these aren't

846
00:41:57,120 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 2: Warby Parker's, but they seem to be doing pretty okay.

847
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:04,840
Speaker 2: Like some companies develop a relationship I love my Maui

848
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 2: Jim's or my Olaci shoes, And at a certain point,

849
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 2: maybe this is being an old man. But it's just

850
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 2: like you just know, just reorder the next one. Oh,

851
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:17,600
Speaker 2: these shoes are ratty, all right, leave them out at

852
00:42:17,600 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 2: the beach house, order another pair, get a new pair.

853
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:23,560
Speaker 2: But I don't know if that's true for your generation. No.

854
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:25,759
Speaker 1: I think it is that you know, you sort of

855
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:28,840
Speaker 1: follow the trends. There's a really good book by douglash

856
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 1: Rushkoff called Present Shock where he talks about how everything

857
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:36,239
Speaker 1: moves in a fashion timeline now, so like people just recycle,

858
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:38,240
Speaker 1: like they just moved through stuff so quickly.

859
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 2: Literally fast fashion is what you know, shine in those

860
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 2: companies are all about.

861
00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, trends move so fast, and you want to be

862
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:49,640
Speaker 1: on top because your whole life is you know, on screen.

863
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:52,440
Speaker 2: On screen, to say the least. So what were you

864
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 2: looking at that led you to the phrase vibe session? Yeah?

865
00:42:57,280 --> 00:43:00,840
Speaker 1: I mean I think for me it was really fortunate

866
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 1: because I had all these comments, Like I was making

867
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:06,400
Speaker 1: these social media videos, so I'd get hundreds of comments

868
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:09,840
Speaker 1: a day of me talking about how GDP was going okay,

869
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:11,920
Speaker 1: and then people would be like, we're in a recession.

870
00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:14,840
Speaker 1: I'm upset, Like what are you talking about? And so

871
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 1: I was like, what's going on? Like why, Like the

872
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:20,480
Speaker 1: economic data is okay, but all these people are extraordinarily upset.

873
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:22,480
Speaker 1: And so I was on a bike ride one day

874
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:24,239
Speaker 1: and I was thinking about that, and it's kind of

875
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 1: like this disconnect of vibes, right, Like it's this disconnect

876
00:43:27,239 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 1: with beading consumer sentiment and economic data, and that gap

877
00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:32,520
Speaker 1: is really the important part. The vibe session has taken

878
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 1: a life of its own, which is really cool. But

879
00:43:34,600 --> 00:43:36,719
Speaker 1: it's been used incorrectly. A couple of times.

880
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:38,719
Speaker 2: Do people use it incorrectly.

881
00:43:38,320 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 1: They'll be like, people shouldn't be feeling bad. It's like,

882
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 1: and that's not the point of that word.

883
00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 2: That's a generational thing, isn't it. You and I were

884
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 2: talking earlier, my buddy Dave, our friend, mutual friend, Dave

885
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:54,200
Speaker 2: Nadic was saying, hey, people over fifty hey, vibe session

886
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:58,080
Speaker 2: concept and people under seem to get it. What is

887
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 2: it about the way it's being misus used? That reflects

888
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:04,280
Speaker 2: the lack of comprehension.

889
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:06,799
Speaker 1: From my experience of having conversations because a lot of

890
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 1: people don't like the word. I got death threads over it.

891
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:15,000
Speaker 2: It was toxic social media? Right? What is better than Twitter?

892
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:16,399
Speaker 2: Since Elmo took it over?

893
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:20,400
Speaker 1: Oh, God, it's a nightmare right now. It was lucky.

894
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:22,200
Speaker 1: This was two years ago, you know, just to make

895
00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:24,080
Speaker 1: that word because I don't know what the comments would

896
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:26,719
Speaker 1: be like currently. But we're kind of seeing a real

897
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 1: time social experiment with that. Like it's almost like four

898
00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:32,640
Speaker 1: chun come back to life. But none of these people

899
00:44:32,680 --> 00:44:33,880
Speaker 1: are anonymous.

900
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:37,480
Speaker 2: Well, plenty of them are anonymous, and my guess is

901
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 2: thirty forty percent of them are just bots.

902
00:44:40,320 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's the foreign interference is a really big thing.

903
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:47,160
Speaker 2: Some domestic, but a lot of China and North Korea,

904
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:51,800
Speaker 2: Russia elsewhere. For sure. Arguably I ran, although I'm not

905
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 2: not as convinced of that. So you coin this phrase.

906
00:44:56,880 --> 00:45:02,240
Speaker 2: June twenty twenty two. By Quinn's ends, CPI inflation peaked

907
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 2: at nine percent in June twenty twenty two. How much

908
00:45:06,880 --> 00:45:12,800
Speaker 2: of vibe session was just utter frustration with rapidly rising inflation?

909
00:45:13,160 --> 00:45:15,080
Speaker 1: A lot of it. Yeah. So the way that I

910
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:17,399
Speaker 1: talk about vibe session now, you know, tw years later,

911
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:21,279
Speaker 1: is that it is an element of structural affordability, right, Like,

912
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:24,880
Speaker 1: inflation is really high. Even with inflation going down, that

913
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:27,400
Speaker 1: doesn't mean the prices are going down. Housing is unaffordable

914
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:32,160
Speaker 1: as we talked about Eldercare is extraordinarily unaffordable. Childcare costs

915
00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 1: are up thirty two percent since twenty nineteen. So like

916
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:39,920
Speaker 1: there's a structural affordability that is being captured in people's

917
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:43,120
Speaker 1: vibes that doesn't necessarily show up in the broader economic data,

918
00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:45,560
Speaker 1: Like you don't look at GDP and say, okay, people

919
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:47,279
Speaker 1: can't afford to put their mom in a nursing home.

920
00:45:47,840 --> 00:45:50,600
Speaker 1: And there's also media headlines like the media has become

921
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:55,400
Speaker 1: really negative. Sentiment has you know, decreased over time too,

922
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:57,719
Speaker 1: and so I think it's those two things where it

923
00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:03,200
Speaker 1: is unaffordable, and then also there's a lot of stories

924
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:07,799
Speaker 1: about things being really bad and that is creating a vibesession.

925
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 2: So it's interesting you mentioned sentiment. I did a blog

926
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 2: post around the same time, and I was kind of

927
00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:21,080
Speaker 2: fascinated that the University of Michigan sentiment survey was lower

928
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:24,440
Speaker 2: than the pandemic, lower than the financial crisis, lower than

929
00:46:24,520 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 2: September eleventh, lower than the dot com implosion. That seemed

930
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:34,840
Speaker 2: to be wildly inappropriate. What else do you think factored

931
00:46:34,840 --> 00:46:36,399
Speaker 2: into that disconnect?

932
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 1: Well, I don't know if you saw the Harris Guardian

933
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:41,719
Speaker 1: poll that like a lot. God, I can't remember the

934
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:44,920
Speaker 1: exact number, but a number that is way too high.

935
00:46:45,040 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 1: Percentage of people think that now was worse than the

936
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:50,920
Speaker 1: Great Depression, And so I think that that's kind of

937
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:54,719
Speaker 1: what's going on is people are looking at circumstances and

938
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:57,719
Speaker 1: as we were talking about earlier, maybe not having context

939
00:46:57,880 --> 00:47:00,840
Speaker 1: for what's happening right now. Right now, we're not in

940
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:01,880
Speaker 1: a great depression.

941
00:47:02,239 --> 00:47:06,400
Speaker 2: It's unaffordable, but we're not even in a recession. Arguable,

942
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:09,920
Speaker 2: you were expanding two and a half three percent somewhere

943
00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:12,160
Speaker 2: in that range in the third or fourth quarters of

944
00:47:12,640 --> 00:47:17,160
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. So I have to ask you this question.

945
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:21,839
Speaker 2: I forgot. I looked up the quote the future is here.

946
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:25,760
Speaker 2: It's just not evenly distributed by William Gibson. How much

947
00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:30,719
Speaker 2: of what you described Vibe session is about the abundance

948
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:35,560
Speaker 2: of our economies here, it's also not evenly distributed. I'm

949
00:47:35,600 --> 00:47:38,760
Speaker 2: old enough to recall that the Baby boomers are in trouble.

950
00:47:38,920 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 2: They're never gonna pay the wealthiest generation in history. Everybody

951
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:46,240
Speaker 2: got that wrong, or a lot of people got that wrong.

952
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:50,000
Speaker 2: We see gen X doing well, we see Gen Z

953
00:47:50,960 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 2: kind of coming up a little bit and now they're

954
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:56,600
Speaker 2: a new generation that's calling jen Alpha or something like that.

955
00:47:57,080 --> 00:48:02,880
Speaker 2: So how does the ditribution of wealth back and loaded

956
00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 2: to the oldest people who have been working and saving

957
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 2: and investing the longest. How does that impact the concept

958
00:48:09,239 --> 00:48:10,000
Speaker 2: of vibe session.

959
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think you know, there's so there's

960
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:17,320
Speaker 1: a couple of things there, right, Like there's a saying

961
00:48:17,520 --> 00:48:19,560
Speaker 1: where America has a lot of wealth but not a

962
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:21,600
Speaker 1: lot of prosperity. And I think that's kind of the

963
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:23,560
Speaker 1: situation where a lot of people have a lot of

964
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:25,960
Speaker 1: money and a lot of assets, but that is not

965
00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:29,439
Speaker 1: evenly distributed, as you said. And I think also because

966
00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:32,760
Speaker 1: people are living longer and you know, staying in jobs longer,

967
00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:37,280
Speaker 1: taking longer to retire, there isn't maybe as much upward

968
00:48:37,320 --> 00:48:39,319
Speaker 1: mobility as there used to be.

969
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:43,440
Speaker 2: Will you people hurry up? And what's the problem?

970
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:46,319
Speaker 1: No, I just it isn't it's I don't think people

971
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 1: should die. But it is interesting because there's I need

972
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:53,239
Speaker 1: to do more work on this. But there's almost kind

973
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:57,719
Speaker 1: of like a leadership slash mentorship crisis where it seems like.

974
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:02,239
Speaker 2: Certainly with remote work is giantly problematic.

975
00:49:01,800 --> 00:49:03,759
Speaker 1: Absolute because like how do you train up the next

976
00:49:03,760 --> 00:49:06,560
Speaker 1: generation if you're not with them. And also there is

977
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:09,720
Speaker 1: an element of resistance to training up the next generation,

978
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:12,640
Speaker 1: I think, because there's elements of agism, like the older

979
00:49:12,680 --> 00:49:14,800
Speaker 1: people don't want to be pushed out of their jobs

980
00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:18,120
Speaker 1: and they feel like that's happening, and it's tough within

981
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:21,400
Speaker 1: like within the generations too, Like I think it's forty

982
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:25,279
Speaker 1: three percent baby boomers have no retirement savings and then

983
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:26,759
Speaker 1: some of them have, you know, a.

984
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:29,520
Speaker 2: Bubble toimes right, it's not even lead distributed, no doubt

985
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:29,800
Speaker 2: about it.

986
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:31,880
Speaker 1: And so I think that's totally true because in the

987
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:35,719
Speaker 1: US we are very much in all or nothing society,

988
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 1: like you either figure it out or you don't, and

989
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:39,759
Speaker 1: there's nobody who's going to help you.

990
00:49:40,239 --> 00:49:43,520
Speaker 2: So you're hinting with the mentorship issue, you're hinting at

991
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:48,839
Speaker 2: something vibe session related, which is I mean, let's talk

992
00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 2: about the eight hundred pound gerill in the room. How

993
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:56,320
Speaker 2: big an impact was the pandemic, the lockdown, being forced

994
00:49:56,320 --> 00:49:58,560
Speaker 2: to work remotely, not being able to have the sort

995
00:49:58,600 --> 00:50:02,640
Speaker 2: of social interaction that my generation took for granted when

996
00:50:02,640 --> 00:50:05,160
Speaker 2: I was your age. How big of an impact was

997
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:10,600
Speaker 2: that mess on? And let's be blunt the pandemic was

998
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:15,160
Speaker 2: not well handled by the previous administration. You can argue

999
00:50:15,239 --> 00:50:17,319
Speaker 2: the at least they got the vaccine out and was

1000
00:50:17,360 --> 00:50:21,520
Speaker 2: somewhat better handled by the next administration, although both of

1001
00:50:21,560 --> 00:50:25,719
Speaker 2: them contributed Karzac one, Karzac two, and Karzac three that

1002
00:50:26,000 --> 00:50:30,320
Speaker 2: massive fiscal stimulus is a big part of the inflation spike.

1003
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:35,680
Speaker 2: How much did the pandemic contribute to Vibe session feelings.

1004
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:38,640
Speaker 1: I think a lot. Yeah, I think, you know, to

1005
00:50:38,719 --> 00:50:43,000
Speaker 1: the point of social interactions, Like I graduated basically into

1006
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:45,440
Speaker 1: the pandemic and I still don't know how to like

1007
00:50:46,080 --> 00:50:48,839
Speaker 1: talk and adult species, right, right, So I think that's

1008
00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:50,680
Speaker 1: definitely a big part of it, is like the lack

1009
00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:53,840
Speaker 1: of social interaction. And then two, like a lot of

1010
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:56,759
Speaker 1: people ended up just consuming content all day long, right,

1011
00:50:57,160 --> 00:51:00,520
Speaker 1: and what goes viral, as you know, on social media

1012
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:03,239
Speaker 1: is doomer stuff, right, And so I think that's a

1013
00:51:03,239 --> 00:51:06,160
Speaker 1: big thing, is like people were consuming because we were

1014
00:51:06,160 --> 00:51:09,640
Speaker 1: stuck inside. It was extraordinarily scary. Nobody knew what was happening.

1015
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 1: And you when people are telling you that the world

1016
00:51:11,840 --> 00:51:14,759
Speaker 1: is ending, and you're like, okay, yeah, that makes sense

1017
00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:16,720
Speaker 1: to me, and you just kind of keep on consuming

1018
00:51:16,719 --> 00:51:19,680
Speaker 1: that info even after things get better.

1019
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:25,799
Speaker 2: Right, That lack of information hygiene is really important. Here's

1020
00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:28,440
Speaker 2: another generational difference, and I want to ask you how

1021
00:51:28,440 --> 00:51:32,600
Speaker 2: this contributed to the vibe session. So people I don't know,

1022
00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:38,440
Speaker 2: over fifty, maybe even over forty, like that, were already

1023
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:41,760
Speaker 2: in their teens or twenties when the Internet came about.

1024
00:51:42,200 --> 00:51:44,080
Speaker 2: The Internet has always been a room in the house

1025
00:51:44,120 --> 00:51:45,880
Speaker 2: we would visit, Oh, I'm going to go online for

1026
00:51:45,880 --> 00:51:50,120
Speaker 2: a while, whereas the forty and under generation, the internet

1027
00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:52,799
Speaker 2: has always been there. Is that true forty and they,

1028
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:55,480
Speaker 2: let's say thirty and under certainly since the mid nineties,

1029
00:51:55,880 --> 00:51:59,160
Speaker 2: and they exist in the Internet. It's not like a

1030
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:04,480
Speaker 2: separate thing. It's part of their virtual reality. So raises

1031
00:52:04,520 --> 00:52:09,359
Speaker 2: the question, what's the impact of social media on that

1032
00:52:09,480 --> 00:52:14,279
Speaker 2: generation's self identity? They at least a decade ago, we're

1033
00:52:14,280 --> 00:52:17,720
Speaker 2: so focused on likes and social approval and you mentioned

1034
00:52:17,800 --> 00:52:22,720
Speaker 2: going viral. Does that lead them to be less data driven,

1035
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:27,520
Speaker 2: less more embracing of these subjective measures of reality?

1036
00:52:28,120 --> 00:52:31,719
Speaker 1: Maybe? Yeah, that's interesting. I think definitely. Yeah, Like the

1037
00:52:31,760 --> 00:52:33,640
Speaker 1: Internet is something that it's like a room that you

1038
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:36,040
Speaker 1: go into in your head, right right, Like you are

1039
00:52:36,040 --> 00:52:38,359
Speaker 1: not with other people if you're on your phone, even

1040
00:52:38,400 --> 00:52:40,319
Speaker 1: if you're around them, right, And so I think that's

1041
00:52:40,360 --> 00:52:42,839
Speaker 1: something that we're like just starting to grapple with. I've

1042
00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:46,120
Speaker 1: noticed it within myself where it's like, once I start scrolling,

1043
00:52:46,280 --> 00:52:48,600
Speaker 1: I'm not in the room with my friends, like I'm

1044
00:52:48,640 --> 00:52:50,759
Speaker 1: in the room on Twitter. And so I think that's

1045
00:52:50,800 --> 00:52:53,600
Speaker 1: a big part of it too, where you do everything

1046
00:52:53,640 --> 00:52:57,480
Speaker 1: does end up being influenced by feelings versus like quantitative measures,

1047
00:52:57,840 --> 00:52:59,719
Speaker 1: and you kind of know how it feels in your

1048
00:52:59,719 --> 00:53:02,600
Speaker 1: head and you kind of extrapolate that out into the

1049
00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:05,000
Speaker 1: world beyond you. And so maybe we do have a

1050
00:53:05,040 --> 00:53:08,680
Speaker 1: more subjective generation that is like, well, this is how

1051
00:53:08,719 --> 00:53:12,360
Speaker 1: I feel about stuff, because look how feelings perform on

1052
00:53:12,440 --> 00:53:13,440
Speaker 1: the internet.

1053
00:53:13,320 --> 00:53:19,640
Speaker 2: Right and listen, social media has perfected the algorithm for outrage,

1054
00:53:19,680 --> 00:53:24,760
Speaker 2: because outrage increases engagement even as it slowly eats away

1055
00:53:24,960 --> 00:53:29,920
Speaker 2: like a cancer society from the inside. You know. I

1056
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:32,600
Speaker 2: have mixed feelings on the death of Twitter as it

1057
00:53:32,680 --> 00:53:33,880
Speaker 2: slowly circles.

1058
00:53:33,480 --> 00:53:34,800
Speaker 1: The dreaming it's going to die.

1059
00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:36,440
Speaker 2: I think it's dead already.

1060
00:53:36,600 --> 00:53:36,880
Speaker 1: Really.

1061
00:53:37,160 --> 00:53:40,680
Speaker 2: So last summer, not twenty four to twenty three, I

1062
00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:45,640
Speaker 2: lost I got hacked. I call him Elmo but Elmo

1063
00:53:45,880 --> 00:53:49,080
Speaker 2: decided to make you pay for two factor authentication, which

1064
00:53:49,160 --> 00:53:52,040
Speaker 2: is standard security practices. It used to come with it.

1065
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:56,239
Speaker 2: And I came home from dinner Saturday night. Apparently you

1066
00:53:56,239 --> 00:53:59,759
Speaker 2: could send an email requesting a change of password and

1067
00:54:00,000 --> 00:54:02,719
Speaker 2: those idiots would just do it, like if you don't

1068
00:54:02,800 --> 00:54:05,960
Speaker 2: object to it in sixty minutes, that's something silly. So

1069
00:54:06,320 --> 00:54:09,759
Speaker 2: that's how I lost my Twitter account, and fortunately the

1070
00:54:09,800 --> 00:54:11,839
Speaker 2: folks here helped me get it back and only took

1071
00:54:11,880 --> 00:54:15,239
Speaker 2: three months. And again Dave nottiing and I I was

1072
00:54:15,280 --> 00:54:18,480
Speaker 2: like lamenting this, and He's like, you're not missing anything.

1073
00:54:18,520 --> 00:54:21,319
Speaker 2: It's died already. This is a year ago, and I'm

1074
00:54:21,560 --> 00:54:25,839
Speaker 2: genuinely shocked at how the engagement has gone down, how

1075
00:54:25,880 --> 00:54:31,600
Speaker 2: the interaction and half the people I know irl I've

1076
00:54:31,640 --> 00:54:35,359
Speaker 2: met on Twitter over the past fifteen years ago. It's

1077
00:54:35,440 --> 00:54:39,040
Speaker 2: so terrible, And there's nothing else has come along that

1078
00:54:39,239 --> 00:54:44,160
Speaker 2: quite matches it. Just that. So now I'm pretty much

1079
00:54:44,239 --> 00:54:48,759
Speaker 2: down to just focusing on my lists. At least it

1080
00:54:48,880 --> 00:54:50,880
Speaker 2: used to be with your list, you weren't seeing a

1081
00:54:50,920 --> 00:54:54,080
Speaker 2: lot of other junk that even that's starting to get

1082
00:54:54,080 --> 00:54:57,480
Speaker 2: corrupted because I know I have a list on behavior

1083
00:54:57,520 --> 00:55:01,440
Speaker 2: finance and a list on charts and at markets and economics,

1084
00:55:01,719 --> 00:55:04,200
Speaker 2: and a list on automobiles, and a list on travel,

1085
00:55:04,239 --> 00:55:06,239
Speaker 2: and a list on I have all these lists, and

1086
00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:08,080
Speaker 2: I used to be able to just go, you know what,

1087
00:55:08,200 --> 00:55:11,960
Speaker 2: I'm just going to spend some time learning about, you know,

1088
00:55:12,040 --> 00:55:15,719
Speaker 2: the hills of southern Spain, and you could do that.

1089
00:55:16,040 --> 00:55:21,360
Speaker 2: And now everything is just intruded with craziness and politics.

1090
00:55:21,719 --> 00:55:24,640
Speaker 2: But it brings I want to bring this back to

1091
00:55:24,680 --> 00:55:28,680
Speaker 2: the vibe session question. So we've talked about the pandemic,

1092
00:55:29,520 --> 00:55:32,920
Speaker 2: We've talked about inflation as a driver of the vibe session.

1093
00:55:34,320 --> 00:55:37,920
Speaker 2: How much of this is driven by social media? How

1094
00:55:38,000 --> 00:55:41,959
Speaker 2: much of this is that doomer loop of people who

1095
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:45,360
Speaker 2: have been wrong since the financial crisis and yet still

1096
00:55:45,400 --> 00:55:46,240
Speaker 2: have a big following.

1097
00:55:46,440 --> 00:55:49,400
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, it's something I combat all the time with

1098
00:55:49,440 --> 00:55:52,600
Speaker 1: the stuff that I post on Instagram and TikTok, because

1099
00:55:52,640 --> 00:55:55,120
Speaker 1: that's what goes viral, is like not the truth, but

1100
00:55:55,560 --> 00:55:57,880
Speaker 1: big scary things. And that's a huge problem on Twitter,

1101
00:55:58,160 --> 00:56:00,879
Speaker 1: as we both know. And so I think it is

1102
00:56:01,120 --> 00:56:03,680
Speaker 1: definitely an issue because, like, you know, we have these

1103
00:56:03,719 --> 00:56:06,520
Speaker 1: animal brains and they're trying to protect us since they're like,

1104
00:56:07,080 --> 00:56:10,239
Speaker 1: you know, pay attention to the big scary thing, and

1105
00:56:10,280 --> 00:56:12,799
Speaker 1: that's always going to be a duomer story, right, right,

1106
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:15,920
Speaker 1: Like nobody really wants to hear Okay, the economy's going okay.

1107
00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:18,520
Speaker 1: It's like, no, the economy's going crazy and you're in

1108
00:56:18,560 --> 00:56:20,160
Speaker 1: a lot of trouble. Like that's what you're going to

1109
00:56:20,239 --> 00:56:22,320
Speaker 1: end up paying attention to. And so I think totally

1110
00:56:22,400 --> 00:56:26,520
Speaker 1: the vibe session has been heavily influenced by social media.

1111
00:56:26,640 --> 00:56:30,640
Speaker 1: Even when I was writing that initial piece, I reached

1112
00:56:30,640 --> 00:56:32,640
Speaker 1: out to a lot of people in my comment section

1113
00:56:32,680 --> 00:56:35,480
Speaker 1: who had been commenting that they were like not feeling

1114
00:56:35,520 --> 00:56:38,040
Speaker 1: good and that they were very worried, and there's of

1115
00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:40,400
Speaker 1: course like true economic pain out there. But a lot

1116
00:56:40,440 --> 00:56:42,120
Speaker 1: of these people were like, Oh, I read an article

1117
00:56:42,239 --> 00:56:43,600
Speaker 1: that things are not okay.

1118
00:56:43,840 --> 00:56:46,480
Speaker 2: And what's the track record of that paper on that author?

1119
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:50,280
Speaker 2: How why do you assume that because it was published

1120
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:52,960
Speaker 2: it's accurate. I'm always sure I spend a lot of

1121
00:56:52,960 --> 00:56:57,399
Speaker 2: time fending off nonsense that clients read and say, hey,

1122
00:56:57,480 --> 00:57:00,920
Speaker 2: you know, New York Stock Exchange margin dead is at

1123
00:57:00,960 --> 00:57:04,439
Speaker 2: record highs. So is the New York Stock Exchange. Look

1124
00:57:04,480 --> 00:57:06,480
Speaker 2: at the two. As long as you're it's at all

1125
00:57:06,520 --> 00:57:08,680
Speaker 2: time highs. Margin dead is also going to be at

1126
00:57:08,680 --> 00:57:12,120
Speaker 2: all time highs. Why is that a problem? Back to

1127
00:57:12,200 --> 00:57:14,799
Speaker 2: denominator blindness. You got to look at the broader context,

1128
00:57:15,320 --> 00:57:18,320
Speaker 2: and yet people don't seem to ask those questions.

1129
00:57:18,440 --> 00:57:21,080
Speaker 1: Do you think that's an element of media literacy?

1130
00:57:21,520 --> 00:57:25,680
Speaker 2: There's some of that. It's also you brought up you know,

1131
00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:29,160
Speaker 2: our lizard brains. Things that are good are not an

1132
00:57:29,160 --> 00:57:33,640
Speaker 2: existential threat. So all right, it's great, things that are bad.

1133
00:57:33,800 --> 00:57:36,560
Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, this can end. Hey, I'm here to

1134
00:57:36,640 --> 00:57:41,160
Speaker 2: propagate my genetic lineage if if this threatens that, you know,

1135
00:57:41,280 --> 00:57:45,960
Speaker 2: we were hardwired to be a classic risk aversion. It's

1136
00:57:46,520 --> 00:57:50,880
Speaker 2: losses feel twice as bad as gains because losses are

1137
00:57:51,160 --> 00:57:52,360
Speaker 2: an existential threat.

1138
00:57:52,600 --> 00:57:56,360
Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely. I was reading this really interesting article about

1139
00:57:56,400 --> 00:57:59,480
Speaker 1: the you know, propagating the generic lineage thing, because I'm

1140
00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:02,040
Speaker 1: really interested in the dating apps and how they're sort

1141
00:58:02,040 --> 00:58:05,160
Speaker 1: of influencing the mindset of the younger generation around that

1142
00:58:05,640 --> 00:58:08,880
Speaker 1: and this guy, he's a sociologist, and he's arguing that

1143
00:58:08,920 --> 00:58:12,120
Speaker 1: our brains are actually switching away from the desire to

1144
00:58:12,280 --> 00:58:15,680
Speaker 1: repopulate and they're more so becoming focused on the individual

1145
00:58:16,080 --> 00:58:18,720
Speaker 1: and that's maybe why we're having more and more of

1146
00:58:18,720 --> 00:58:19,800
Speaker 1: a fertility crisis.

1147
00:58:19,880 --> 00:58:22,280
Speaker 2: Isn't that a global issue? Oh yeah, seeing a fertility

1148
00:58:22,280 --> 00:58:26,120
Speaker 2: crisis around the world across the board. You mentioned the

1149
00:58:26,200 --> 00:58:29,480
Speaker 2: quant who works in my shop, Nick Majulie. He did

1150
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:33,280
Speaker 2: some stuff years ago, look scraping the data from the apps.

1151
00:58:33,600 --> 00:58:35,320
Speaker 2: You should dig that up. I remember it was like

1152
00:58:35,760 --> 00:58:39,520
Speaker 2: just insane the sort of numbers he pulled out of that.

1153
00:58:40,840 --> 00:58:43,760
Speaker 2: I think I'm hard pressed to imagine that five years

1154
00:58:43,840 --> 00:58:46,880
Speaker 2: or ten years of social media are going to undo

1155
00:58:47,120 --> 00:58:51,280
Speaker 2: two million years of evolutionary biology. Maybe I'm wrong, but

1156
00:58:52,400 --> 00:58:55,160
Speaker 2: is this something that it's just a novel theory or

1157
00:58:55,680 --> 00:59:00,520
Speaker 2: you finding against a lot of wetwear and hardwired aspects

1158
00:59:00,520 --> 00:59:01,960
Speaker 2: of the human experience.

1159
00:59:02,120 --> 00:59:05,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think it's it's definitely like paper covering

1160
00:59:05,400 --> 00:59:07,560
Speaker 1: the deeper, you know, need to do that, because I

1161
00:59:07,560 --> 00:59:11,800
Speaker 1: do think that's a genetic desire. But it's just interesting

1162
00:59:12,160 --> 00:59:14,760
Speaker 1: and like maybe that's like why the vibes are disconnected, right,

1163
00:59:14,800 --> 00:59:17,840
Speaker 1: Like why you see these high rates of depression, anxiety,

1164
00:59:17,920 --> 00:59:21,400
Speaker 1: et cetera. You know, whenever you talk about society at large,

1165
00:59:21,400 --> 00:59:24,520
Speaker 1: you're always pulling theories and there's always gaps in them.

1166
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:26,720
Speaker 1: But I think it's just interesting to think about like,

1167
00:59:26,760 --> 00:59:28,640
Speaker 1: you know, what is the impact of dating apps, What

1168
00:59:28,720 --> 00:59:30,880
Speaker 1: is the impact of being on social media and seeing

1169
00:59:31,320 --> 00:59:34,320
Speaker 1: you know, not real faces but edited faces, Like how

1170
00:59:34,320 --> 00:59:36,360
Speaker 1: does that impact how we actually exist in the real

1171
00:59:36,400 --> 00:59:39,360
Speaker 1: world and ultimately how we feel about everything that we're

1172
00:59:39,400 --> 00:59:41,120
Speaker 1: doing and the economy at large.

1173
00:59:41,240 --> 00:59:44,120
Speaker 2: Well, we know that kids have a much higher depression

1174
00:59:44,200 --> 00:59:47,040
Speaker 2: rate than they used to ever since you know, the

1175
00:59:47,080 --> 00:59:50,120
Speaker 2: iPhone came out and all the apps, so it's having

1176
00:59:50,120 --> 00:59:53,360
Speaker 2: a real effect all right, which leads to my last

1177
00:59:53,440 --> 00:59:57,080
Speaker 2: vibe session question, which is there were a number of

1178
00:59:57,120 --> 01:00:01,320
Speaker 2: economists who thought a vibe session would be a self

1179
01:00:01,360 --> 01:00:05,320
Speaker 2: fulfilling prophecy and that we would end up negative sentiment,

1180
01:00:05,320 --> 01:00:08,400
Speaker 2: would end up driving recession. That didn't happen.

1181
01:00:08,680 --> 01:00:11,560
Speaker 1: Why, Yeah, that was good. That was actually the title

1182
01:00:11,600 --> 01:00:15,520
Speaker 1: of the original piece, you know, vibeesession, self fulfilling prophecy.

1183
01:00:16,960 --> 01:00:19,400
Speaker 1: And I don't think it ended up happening because the

1184
01:00:19,400 --> 01:00:21,600
Speaker 1: economic data has been so strong, Like the government is

1185
01:00:21,640 --> 01:00:23,520
Speaker 1: spending a lot of money, right, and that's going to

1186
01:00:23,520 --> 01:00:25,400
Speaker 1: help prop up GDP, and that's going to help a

1187
01:00:25,440 --> 01:00:28,520
Speaker 1: prop up the consumer. The consumer had an incredible savings

1188
01:00:28,560 --> 01:00:31,720
Speaker 1: buffer post COVID, and we did see real wage gains

1189
01:00:31,920 --> 01:00:34,640
Speaker 1: and so you had a resilient consumer who was ready

1190
01:00:34,680 --> 01:00:37,520
Speaker 1: to spend, especially on services. And so I think that

1191
01:00:37,680 --> 01:00:40,160
Speaker 1: helped us avoid a recession as we had a government

1192
01:00:40,160 --> 01:00:42,280
Speaker 1: to you know, spending a lot of money. And then

1193
01:00:42,320 --> 01:00:45,640
Speaker 1: we had a consumer that up until recently has been

1194
01:00:45,720 --> 01:00:48,120
Speaker 1: quite strong in a labor market that was incredibly strong.

1195
01:00:48,160 --> 01:00:50,480
Speaker 1: We're seeing weakness in that now, but I think that's

1196
01:00:50,520 --> 01:00:52,960
Speaker 1: why we were able to avoid the self fulfilling prophecy

1197
01:00:53,000 --> 01:00:53,600
Speaker 1: aspect of it.

1198
01:00:53,680 --> 01:00:56,280
Speaker 2: Are we really seeing weakness? Are we just seeing less

1199
01:00:56,280 --> 01:00:57,080
Speaker 2: strength than we.

1200
01:00:57,000 --> 01:00:59,760
Speaker 1: Did, We're seeing That's a good point. It's more lukewarm versus.

1201
01:00:59,640 --> 01:01:03,160
Speaker 2: High and the crazy thing I think people So you

1202
01:01:03,200 --> 01:01:07,320
Speaker 2: talk about the abundance mindset earlier, there are a couple

1203
01:01:07,320 --> 01:01:10,480
Speaker 2: of areas in the economy that scarcity has taked. So

1204
01:01:10,600 --> 01:01:14,280
Speaker 2: we don't have enough single family homes, there aren't enough laborers.

1205
01:01:14,360 --> 01:01:18,680
Speaker 2: We've reduced a number of legal immigrants since nine to eleven.

1206
01:01:19,000 --> 01:01:21,880
Speaker 2: We lost a whole bunch of people to COVID we launched,

1207
01:01:22,040 --> 01:01:25,600
Speaker 2: We have removed a whole bunch of people from the

1208
01:01:25,800 --> 01:01:31,440
Speaker 2: labor force through disability, including long COVID. Arguably we're short

1209
01:01:31,480 --> 01:01:34,400
Speaker 2: two or three million houses were short a few million

1210
01:01:34,480 --> 01:01:37,880
Speaker 2: automobiles due to the lag in ramping up semiconductor production.

1211
01:01:38,360 --> 01:01:41,840
Speaker 2: And we're also short I don't know, pick a number one, two, three,

1212
01:01:42,000 --> 01:01:45,280
Speaker 2: four million laborers out of a laborpool of one hundred

1213
01:01:45,280 --> 01:01:48,480
Speaker 2: and sixty two million people. So we have all this

1214
01:01:48,560 --> 01:01:52,360
Speaker 2: abundance and yet at the same time they're scarcity in

1215
01:01:52,480 --> 01:01:53,640
Speaker 2: very specific areas.

1216
01:01:53,760 --> 01:01:56,479
Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, in the abundance mindset is like we can't

1217
01:01:56,560 --> 01:01:58,960
Speaker 1: have all these things in great numbers, and like it

1218
01:01:59,000 --> 01:02:02,240
Speaker 1: doesn't have to be this issue where there's not enough

1219
01:02:02,280 --> 01:02:04,840
Speaker 1: of things and that creates so much wordy and concern

1220
01:02:04,920 --> 01:02:07,120
Speaker 1: for people. But yeah, I think that's kind of the

1221
01:02:07,160 --> 01:02:09,280
Speaker 1: issue across the board is we don't have enough, and

1222
01:02:09,360 --> 01:02:12,200
Speaker 1: yet we have so much money as a country, right.

1223
01:02:12,400 --> 01:02:16,520
Speaker 2: Wealth, but not prosperity. I love that economy where if

1224
01:02:16,560 --> 01:02:20,280
Speaker 2: you go to I remember being in Europe right during

1225
01:02:20,320 --> 01:02:24,720
Speaker 2: the dot com implosion and everybody was so stressed out

1226
01:02:24,720 --> 01:02:27,360
Speaker 2: in Manhattan you could feel like, hey, I get fired,

1227
01:02:27,360 --> 01:02:29,320
Speaker 2: I'm gonna lose my health insurance. What it's gonna happen

1228
01:02:29,360 --> 01:02:32,000
Speaker 2: if my kid needs a operation. You go to Europe

1229
01:02:32,080 --> 01:02:34,800
Speaker 2: and they're in the cafe is having coffee and they're

1230
01:02:34,800 --> 01:02:38,280
Speaker 2: smoking cloth cigarettes and nobody really seems to be bent

1231
01:02:38,320 --> 01:02:42,680
Speaker 2: out of shape that hey, the technology is imploding eighty percent.

1232
01:02:43,080 --> 01:02:46,320
Speaker 2: They're all kind of just groove in life. It's a

1233
01:02:46,440 --> 01:02:51,200
Speaker 2: very different mindset where the focus isn't on wealth, but

1234
01:02:51,280 --> 01:02:56,440
Speaker 2: it's on prosperity. Yeah, are there that much geographic differences?

1235
01:02:56,720 --> 01:02:59,560
Speaker 2: Is United States that unique compared to the rest of

1236
01:02:59,600 --> 01:02:59,960
Speaker 2: the world.

1237
01:03:00,200 --> 01:03:02,280
Speaker 1: I don't. I mean, I think there's actually a big

1238
01:03:02,320 --> 01:03:05,880
Speaker 1: conversation kind of happening around this right now, like why

1239
01:03:06,120 --> 01:03:09,400
Speaker 1: the United States sort of does this to itself? And

1240
01:03:09,680 --> 01:03:13,720
Speaker 1: I think the US has these elements of workaholicism, like

1241
01:03:13,800 --> 01:03:17,120
Speaker 1: we love the work and Europe maybe doesn't. But yeah,

1242
01:03:17,160 --> 01:03:19,640
Speaker 1: we've chosen maybe not to spend so much on the

1243
01:03:19,640 --> 01:03:24,160
Speaker 1: social aspect of it, and you do see consequences of that.

1244
01:03:24,200 --> 01:03:26,520
Speaker 1: Like I think having a social safety net for people

1245
01:03:27,160 --> 01:03:29,280
Speaker 1: is a really good buffer. Like once you have a

1246
01:03:29,320 --> 01:03:31,120
Speaker 1: sense of security, there's kind of a lot that you

1247
01:03:31,160 --> 01:03:31,920
Speaker 1: can achieve.

1248
01:03:31,720 --> 01:03:35,960
Speaker 2: A lot less stress. Also, although although arguably we don't

1249
01:03:36,040 --> 01:03:38,920
Speaker 2: have that safety net, we don't and we've achieved I

1250
01:03:38,920 --> 01:03:41,160
Speaker 2: think the stress is what has driven us.

1251
01:03:41,560 --> 01:03:43,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, because we know that we have to have a

1252
01:03:43,720 --> 01:03:44,160
Speaker 1: safe you.

1253
01:03:44,080 --> 01:03:47,000
Speaker 2: Better get off your go do something otherwise no one's

1254
01:03:47,000 --> 01:03:49,960
Speaker 2: feeding you. Good luck being homalless, which kind of is

1255
01:03:50,000 --> 01:03:54,000
Speaker 2: really funning at about the Wall Street bets and all

1256
01:03:54,040 --> 01:03:58,120
Speaker 2: the crypto bros that have fun being poor. Was such

1257
01:03:58,120 --> 01:04:01,880
Speaker 2: an interesting basic approach to No. No, you've got to

1258
01:04:01,880 --> 01:04:04,880
Speaker 2: go do something, even if it's something like NFTs or

1259
01:04:04,920 --> 01:04:08,440
Speaker 2: crypto figure something out. That's a uniquely American proposition.

1260
01:04:08,520 --> 01:04:11,680
Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely, because there's nobody to catch you, right, and

1261
01:04:11,720 --> 01:04:15,000
Speaker 1: so you have to go invest in disecoin. And that's like,

1262
01:04:15,120 --> 01:04:18,400
Speaker 1: now we have this gambling issue as a society, like

1263
01:04:18,440 --> 01:04:22,160
Speaker 1: sports gambling, unbelievable. Gosh, it's awful. Yeah, and it is.

1264
01:04:22,320 --> 01:04:24,480
Speaker 1: I really do believe it's because we don't have a

1265
01:04:24,520 --> 01:04:26,240
Speaker 1: safety net for people, and so they're like, I don't

1266
01:04:26,280 --> 01:04:28,200
Speaker 1: know what to do, I'll just gamble my money.

1267
01:04:28,320 --> 01:04:30,440
Speaker 2: That makes sense. Usually if I don't know what to do,

1268
01:04:30,960 --> 01:04:34,360
Speaker 2: I'll go watch YouTube. But hey, whatever you have to do.

1269
01:04:35,560 --> 01:04:40,320
Speaker 2: So the Vibe session did not become a self fulfilling prophecy.

1270
01:04:41,160 --> 01:04:43,600
Speaker 2: I have to do a compare and contrast with something

1271
01:04:43,640 --> 01:04:47,320
Speaker 2: he wrote in the book, inflation is entirely dependent on

1272
01:04:47,360 --> 01:04:50,360
Speaker 2: what people expect to happen. I disagree, but I want

1273
01:04:50,400 --> 01:04:52,280
Speaker 2: you to explain why you think that is.

1274
01:04:52,440 --> 01:04:56,200
Speaker 1: Yes, So this is definitely an unpopular opinion. Drew and

1275
01:04:56,240 --> 01:04:58,680
Speaker 1: Poll actually talked about this in his Jackson Whole speech.

1276
01:04:58,760 --> 01:05:02,360
Speaker 1: You know, infulation nextperts have been tempered, so people don't

1277
01:05:02,360 --> 01:05:05,120
Speaker 1: expect as much inflation as it used to and that'll

1278
01:05:05,160 --> 01:05:05,760
Speaker 1: help the Fed.

1279
01:05:06,160 --> 01:05:08,080
Speaker 2: So let me just let me just stop you right there.

1280
01:05:08,320 --> 01:05:12,040
Speaker 2: So after inflation has fallen from nine percent to two percent,

1281
01:05:12,560 --> 01:05:17,240
Speaker 2: their expectations go down. That sounds quite backwards looking and lagging.

1282
01:05:17,840 --> 01:05:21,080
Speaker 2: Let me also point out that when inflation was about

1283
01:05:21,080 --> 01:05:25,120
Speaker 2: to spike up in two thousand and one, everybody's forward

1284
01:05:25,480 --> 01:05:29,680
Speaker 2: inflation expectations were pretty low. Isn't this like asking people

1285
01:05:29,720 --> 01:05:32,400
Speaker 2: what their risk tolerance is? Aren't you just getting whatever

1286
01:05:32,440 --> 01:05:35,000
Speaker 2: happened over the past six to twelve months? Yeah?

1287
01:05:35,120 --> 01:05:38,280
Speaker 1: Usually, But I think the reason I said that in

1288
01:05:38,320 --> 01:05:41,240
Speaker 1: the book was like, the expectations do matter, and they'll

1289
01:05:41,320 --> 01:05:43,920
Speaker 1: ultimately influence how the Federal Reserve makes decisions.

1290
01:05:43,920 --> 01:05:46,000
Speaker 2: I mean, Jerome Powell one hundred percent agrees with that.

1291
01:05:46,120 --> 01:05:46,960
Speaker 2: I just think he's.

1292
01:05:46,800 --> 01:05:50,440
Speaker 1: Wrong because you think it's what, like, what do you think?

1293
01:05:50,840 --> 01:05:52,400
Speaker 2: I think people don't know what the hell they think.

1294
01:05:52,480 --> 01:05:54,240
Speaker 2: They certainly don't know what they're gonna do you ask

1295
01:05:54,320 --> 01:05:57,200
Speaker 2: them a question they don't know. And because of the

1296
01:05:57,240 --> 01:06:02,240
Speaker 2: American educational experience where we're tested within inches of our lives, Hey,

1297
01:06:02,880 --> 01:06:06,720
Speaker 2: no penalties for filling in that bubble on your multiple choice.

1298
01:06:07,280 --> 01:06:10,120
Speaker 2: So people nobody likes to say I don't know, So

1299
01:06:10,280 --> 01:06:13,480
Speaker 2: here's a made up answer. Go away. I can talk

1300
01:06:13,480 --> 01:06:15,960
Speaker 2: about this stuff with you forever, but we have a

1301
01:06:16,000 --> 01:06:19,360
Speaker 2: hard stop. So I have to get to my favorite

1302
01:06:19,440 --> 01:06:23,120
Speaker 2: questions that I ask all of my guests, starting with

1303
01:06:24,000 --> 01:06:27,240
Speaker 2: what's keeping you entertained these days? What are you listening

1304
01:06:27,240 --> 01:06:31,560
Speaker 2: to on podcasts or watching on Netflix, Amazon, Disney, whatever

1305
01:06:31,840 --> 01:06:32,200
Speaker 2: you like?

1306
01:06:32,560 --> 01:06:39,640
Speaker 1: Yeah? So I really like the podcast Philosophize. This Philosophize, Yeah,

1307
01:06:39,760 --> 01:06:42,440
Speaker 1: that's one of my favorite podcasts. It's by Stephen West

1308
01:06:42,800 --> 01:06:45,160
Speaker 1: and he talks all about the different schools of philosophy,

1309
01:06:45,200 --> 01:06:49,760
Speaker 1: goes back to the very beginning, and it's just phenomenal

1310
01:06:49,800 --> 01:06:52,800
Speaker 1: and he walks you through everything and all the different

1311
01:06:52,800 --> 01:06:56,640
Speaker 1: schools of thought, and I think he does a fantastic job.

1312
01:06:56,960 --> 01:07:00,480
Speaker 1: And then there's this series called Land of the Giants

1313
01:07:00,520 --> 01:07:01,040
Speaker 1: by Box.

1314
01:07:01,280 --> 01:07:02,720
Speaker 2: You've heard of that, yes.

1315
01:07:02,640 --> 01:07:05,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, Peter Kofka has done a couple of them, but.

1316
01:07:05,960 --> 01:07:07,800
Speaker 2: He was a Business Week for a long time, and

1317
01:07:07,800 --> 01:07:09,520
Speaker 2: then I think it was briefly at the Times and

1318
01:07:09,520 --> 01:07:10,320
Speaker 2: now he's at Fox.

1319
01:07:10,520 --> 01:07:12,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so. I think that was his path.

1320
01:07:12,120 --> 01:07:14,960
Speaker 2: Well unless it was backwards Times Business Week, but whatever.

1321
01:07:16,360 --> 01:07:18,160
Speaker 2: He's a good economic writer.

1322
01:07:18,160 --> 01:07:21,240
Speaker 1: And he's a great podcast Oh really Yeah, I really

1323
01:07:21,320 --> 01:07:23,880
Speaker 1: enjoyed his his dives. They talk about like delivery apps,

1324
01:07:24,040 --> 01:07:26,800
Speaker 1: they talk about dating apps, they talk about Twitter and

1325
01:07:26,840 --> 01:07:29,680
Speaker 1: what happened with Twitter, and so I really enjoyed that.

1326
01:07:29,760 --> 01:07:31,840
Speaker 1: And then I've been listening. I listened to a ton

1327
01:07:31,840 --> 01:07:34,439
Speaker 1: of audio books because I'm on a bike a lot,

1328
01:07:34,800 --> 01:07:36,360
Speaker 1: and so I'll listen to a book on the bike

1329
01:07:36,840 --> 01:07:38,880
Speaker 1: and Blood in the Machine is really good.

1330
01:07:38,960 --> 01:07:41,000
Speaker 2: It sounds so from the Oh.

1331
01:07:40,720 --> 01:07:42,560
Speaker 1: I can't remember the author's name.

1332
01:07:42,960 --> 01:07:45,360
Speaker 2: So I'm going to get to specific books. We'll start, Okay,

1333
01:07:45,440 --> 01:07:50,120
Speaker 2: so hold on that for a second. So those were

1334
01:07:50,120 --> 01:07:53,240
Speaker 2: all podcasts. Any any video anything you watch on video

1335
01:07:53,400 --> 01:07:56,640
Speaker 2: like YouTube stuff, YouTube, Netflix whatever.

1336
01:07:56,840 --> 01:08:01,040
Speaker 1: Oh I don't watch a ton of Netflix. I do

1337
01:08:01,640 --> 01:08:05,480
Speaker 1: listen to a lot of podcasts. And then on YouTube,

1338
01:08:05,920 --> 01:08:09,600
Speaker 1: I've been listening to Eddie Burback. Have you heard of him? No,

1339
01:08:09,920 --> 01:08:12,560
Speaker 1: He's kind of like a commentator YouTube guy. But he

1340
01:08:12,600 --> 01:08:15,360
Speaker 1: did this thing on Ai. Recently, he did this funny

1341
01:08:15,440 --> 01:08:19,280
Speaker 1: video where he visited all the rainforest cafes in the country.

1342
01:08:19,520 --> 01:08:22,120
Speaker 1: And he's just a very good producer. Uh huh, and

1343
01:08:22,280 --> 01:08:23,799
Speaker 1: I really enjoy think.

1344
01:08:23,720 --> 01:08:26,240
Speaker 2: How many rainforest cafes other in the country. There's one

1345
01:08:26,360 --> 01:08:29,080
Speaker 2: like didn't that come out like twenty year twenty five

1346
01:08:29,200 --> 01:08:33,400
Speaker 2: years ago Bruce Willis and Arnold Schwartz And there wasn't

1347
01:08:33,439 --> 01:08:38,120
Speaker 2: like a crazy question like they teamed up so after

1348
01:08:38,400 --> 01:08:42,760
Speaker 2: Planet Hollywood. I don't remember. I'm getting that wrong. I

1349
01:08:42,800 --> 01:08:44,880
Speaker 2: know that they were involved. Some people were involved with

1350
01:08:44,920 --> 01:08:49,280
Speaker 2: Planet Hollywood, and a subset of those people did Rainforest Cafe.

1351
01:08:49,320 --> 01:08:50,760
Speaker 2: I could be completely wrong about that.

1352
01:08:50,800 --> 01:08:53,160
Speaker 1: I don't know, but yeah, he walks. I don't know,

1353
01:08:53,200 --> 01:08:53,920
Speaker 1: maybe not everything.

1354
01:08:53,960 --> 01:08:55,120
Speaker 2: Are there a lot of these left?

1355
01:08:55,880 --> 01:08:58,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, there are at least one in every state.

1356
01:08:58,400 --> 01:09:02,479
Speaker 2: I think, uh huh huh. Good, that's crazy. I'm going

1357
01:09:02,520 --> 01:09:04,240
Speaker 2: to share a channel with you because you brought up

1358
01:09:04,360 --> 01:09:07,240
Speaker 2: mass transit. Yeah, there is a guy. He's a Canadian.

1359
01:09:07,280 --> 01:09:09,880
Speaker 2: He moved to Amsterdam and he has a channel called

1360
01:09:10,479 --> 01:09:14,439
Speaker 2: Not Just Spikes and I'm addicted. First of all, I

1361
01:09:14,479 --> 01:09:19,240
Speaker 2: love Amsterdam. It just barely edged out Paris is my

1362
01:09:19,320 --> 01:09:23,000
Speaker 2: favorite city. But the whole concept of, hey, what you

1363
01:09:23,040 --> 01:09:25,800
Speaker 2: do with your mass transit affects everything from wealth and

1364
01:09:25,840 --> 01:09:29,760
Speaker 2: incoming equality to quality of life and why people in

1365
01:09:30,240 --> 01:09:35,000
Speaker 2: countries with better mass transits have higher happiness quotients and

1366
01:09:35,080 --> 01:09:39,280
Speaker 2: better health outcomes. And it's crazy how it just cascades

1367
01:09:39,800 --> 01:09:43,240
Speaker 2: after higher education that seems to be the next most

1368
01:09:43,240 --> 01:09:43,920
Speaker 2: important thing.

1369
01:09:44,080 --> 01:09:46,160
Speaker 1: Do you know that the average car in the United

1370
01:09:46,200 --> 01:09:50,000
Speaker 1: States has more space for itself than the average person does?

1371
01:09:50,120 --> 01:09:52,840
Speaker 2: Yeah? Absolutely, Yeah, just look at all the plus to

1372
01:09:52,840 --> 01:09:55,599
Speaker 2: say nothing of the parking spots that.

1373
01:09:55,640 --> 01:09:59,200
Speaker 1: Have you read Paradise? No, Oh, it's about parking and

1374
01:09:59,240 --> 01:09:59,840
Speaker 1: it's great.

1375
01:10:00,240 --> 01:10:04,040
Speaker 2: So so let's get to your favorite books. No, let's paid Parking, Yeah,

1376
01:10:04,160 --> 01:10:06,200
Speaker 2: paid Paradise. About what else?

1377
01:10:06,280 --> 01:10:09,160
Speaker 1: The parking Blood in the Machine? Which can It's this

1378
01:10:09,360 --> 01:10:12,040
Speaker 1: gorgeous book and he talks about the blood hees and

1379
01:10:12,080 --> 01:10:14,320
Speaker 1: he goes into deep detail and like talks about what

1380
01:10:14,360 --> 01:10:16,519
Speaker 1: it was like and obviously a very hard time, but

1381
01:10:17,040 --> 01:10:19,360
Speaker 1: what it looks like for their lives to be impacted

1382
01:10:19,360 --> 01:10:23,360
Speaker 1: by the introduction of like the spinning machine, and how

1383
01:10:23,520 --> 01:10:27,320
Speaker 1: AI is like kind of comparing to that, And it's

1384
01:10:27,360 --> 01:10:29,240
Speaker 1: just it's really good historical writing.

1385
01:10:29,280 --> 01:10:31,880
Speaker 2: And I just saw a research report this morning. I

1386
01:10:31,880 --> 01:10:33,840
Speaker 2: don't know who put it out, is the problem with

1387
01:10:34,240 --> 01:10:37,880
Speaker 2: being a consumer of just too much jumps that AI

1388
01:10:38,000 --> 01:10:40,080
Speaker 2: is going to be a net positive? Oh, I know

1389
01:10:40,160 --> 01:10:43,200
Speaker 2: it was Torsten Slock looked at unemployment rates and phil

1390
01:10:43,400 --> 01:10:47,720
Speaker 2: the Philippines and somewhere else that a lot of a

1391
01:10:47,760 --> 01:10:50,519
Speaker 2: lot of call centers and a lot of outsource stuff

1392
01:10:50,880 --> 01:10:54,000
Speaker 2: and despite the introduction of AI, none of these places

1393
01:10:54,040 --> 01:10:56,639
Speaker 2: have seen an optic in unemployment yet. Oh. Just kind

1394
01:10:56,640 --> 01:10:59,799
Speaker 2: of fascinating, Like you would think that's that's the canary

1395
01:10:59,800 --> 01:11:01,040
Speaker 2: and the call, right, And.

1396
01:11:01,080 --> 01:11:02,760
Speaker 1: I think like the way that a lot of people

1397
01:11:02,760 --> 01:11:05,160
Speaker 1: are thinking about AIM, not this author of blood the machine,

1398
01:11:05,160 --> 01:11:09,680
Speaker 1: but as a compliment to the human laborer, where it's

1399
01:11:09,720 --> 01:11:11,639
Speaker 1: like it's not something where that places you, but something

1400
01:11:11,640 --> 01:11:15,160
Speaker 1: that has an augmentation. Yeah. I've seen AI be.

1401
01:11:15,200 --> 01:11:17,840
Speaker 2: An augmentation in my life one hundred percent. Every time

1402
01:11:17,880 --> 01:11:20,680
Speaker 2: I do uh, do the prep work for this, the

1403
01:11:20,800 --> 01:11:24,800
Speaker 2: last thing I do is entered into perplexity and chat

1404
01:11:24,840 --> 01:11:28,439
Speaker 2: GBT and see what comes up. It still is occasionally wrong.

1405
01:11:29,080 --> 01:11:31,680
Speaker 2: You have to be very aware that it's not trustworthy.

1406
01:11:31,880 --> 01:11:33,600
Speaker 2: But it's getting a little better all the time, and

1407
01:11:34,080 --> 01:11:38,240
Speaker 2: every now and then it'll uncover a nugget that we

1408
01:11:38,280 --> 01:11:40,559
Speaker 2: miss and it's I have a research team, it's not

1409
01:11:40,800 --> 01:11:44,120
Speaker 2: just me. And even still, those deep dives will pull

1410
01:11:44,120 --> 01:11:48,000
Speaker 2: pull stuff out. So Paved Paradise blend the Machine. Any

1411
01:11:48,000 --> 01:11:48,479
Speaker 2: other books you.

1412
01:11:48,640 --> 01:11:51,760
Speaker 1: Oh, gosh, yeah, I read a ton on the bike

1413
01:11:51,800 --> 01:11:55,439
Speaker 1: a lot. But I I read this book about the

1414
01:11:55,479 --> 01:11:58,600
Speaker 1: founder of Glasciator, which was really interesting. Or Glossier the

1415
01:11:58,600 --> 01:12:01,200
Speaker 1: water company. Yeah, it's the makeup company.

1416
01:12:01,320 --> 01:12:02,559
Speaker 2: Oh, the makeup Yeah.

1417
01:12:02,640 --> 01:12:05,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, So it's about that that founder and like what

1418
01:12:05,360 --> 01:12:07,240
Speaker 1: it was like for her to build a makeup company,

1419
01:12:08,040 --> 01:12:10,479
Speaker 1: and that was quite good. I read a lot of fiction.

1420
01:12:11,720 --> 01:12:14,240
Speaker 2: So right now those first three year all nonfiction you

1421
01:12:14,400 --> 01:12:17,960
Speaker 2: just gave me, uh huh yeah, right, so that's three nonfiction.

1422
01:12:18,000 --> 01:12:19,679
Speaker 2: Give us three fiction that you're enjoying.

1423
01:12:20,160 --> 01:12:23,360
Speaker 1: I'm reading A Gentleman in Moscow right now. Have you

1424
01:12:23,400 --> 01:12:23,720
Speaker 1: read that?

1425
01:12:23,800 --> 01:12:26,160
Speaker 2: I have it on my list forever, It's always in

1426
01:12:26,200 --> 01:12:26,559
Speaker 2: my queue.

1427
01:12:26,600 --> 01:12:29,320
Speaker 1: I never get it's like, so I'm probably a quarter

1428
01:12:29,400 --> 01:12:31,479
Speaker 1: of the way through it, and it's kind of a

1429
01:12:31,520 --> 01:12:34,080
Speaker 1: lot of dialogue, which I don't always enjoy. Like I

1430
01:12:34,080 --> 01:12:37,479
Speaker 1: really love world building in fiction novels like Lord of

1431
01:12:37,479 --> 01:12:38,400
Speaker 1: the Rings, et cetera.

1432
01:12:38,439 --> 01:12:40,679
Speaker 2: Are you a sci fi or fantasy. I mean, obviously

1433
01:12:40,720 --> 01:12:42,560
Speaker 2: Lord of the Rings is a classic.

1434
01:12:42,120 --> 01:12:45,800
Speaker 1: But like kind kind of it's more of I like

1435
01:12:46,000 --> 01:12:48,519
Speaker 1: settings to be very clear, so I can have it

1436
01:12:48,520 --> 01:12:51,240
Speaker 1: in my head as a visual. I don't know if

1437
01:12:51,240 --> 01:12:52,040
Speaker 1: that makes sense.

1438
01:12:51,960 --> 01:12:55,200
Speaker 2: But CJ. Scherer was this and you could tell she

1439
01:12:55,240 --> 01:12:57,280
Speaker 2: was a woman because it's initials. Because once she was

1440
01:12:57,320 --> 01:12:59,720
Speaker 2: writing back in the sixties and seventies, I had a

1441
01:12:59,760 --> 01:13:03,280
Speaker 2: high that she has. If you like world building, go

1442
01:13:03,400 --> 01:13:06,840
Speaker 2: check out Pride of channor Cha and you are ok.

1443
01:13:08,080 --> 01:13:10,760
Speaker 2: If you're like twenty pages into it and you're not

1444
01:13:10,960 --> 01:13:12,400
Speaker 2: deeply in love, just throw it away.

1445
01:13:12,439 --> 01:13:13,040
Speaker 1: Okay, done.

1446
01:13:13,360 --> 01:13:16,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, but I may just have sent you down a

1447
01:13:16,160 --> 01:13:20,400
Speaker 2: rabbit hole that will. Yeah. And she's just this amazing

1448
01:13:20,800 --> 01:13:26,320
Speaker 2: builder of worlds, wonderful that very few writers like I

1449
01:13:26,439 --> 01:13:28,360
Speaker 2: just remember, of all the sci fi stuff I went

1450
01:13:28,400 --> 01:13:31,960
Speaker 2: through as a kid, she just totally all right. So so,

1451
01:13:33,040 --> 01:13:35,400
Speaker 2: gentlemen of Moscow, give us two more.

1452
01:13:36,040 --> 01:13:39,479
Speaker 1: I'm reading. I read Olive by I can't remember her name,

1453
01:13:39,560 --> 01:13:41,960
Speaker 1: but it got turned into a TV show. But it's

1454
01:13:42,040 --> 01:13:45,800
Speaker 1: kind of really interesting because it's about and she has

1455
01:13:45,840 --> 01:13:48,639
Speaker 1: a sequel too, called Olive Again, and it's about this

1456
01:13:48,760 --> 01:13:50,880
Speaker 1: woman who just lives in this little town, and she

1457
01:13:51,040 --> 01:13:54,120
Speaker 1: has all these little stories that surround this woman, and

1458
01:13:54,200 --> 01:13:56,800
Speaker 1: all the stories interweave really beautifully, and I really like that,

1459
01:13:56,880 --> 01:13:58,160
Speaker 1: kind of like time bedding stuff.

1460
01:13:58,720 --> 01:14:00,840
Speaker 2: Elizabeth Strout, Elizabeth, thank you.

1461
01:14:01,040 --> 01:14:01,720
Speaker 1: Right, And then I.

1462
01:14:01,960 --> 01:14:06,519
Speaker 2: Google makes the universal information. We don't know anything, but

1463
01:14:06,600 --> 01:14:08,760
Speaker 2: where knowledge, Jason, and there it is.

1464
01:14:08,960 --> 01:14:09,639
Speaker 1: Let me google.

1465
01:14:09,760 --> 01:14:13,879
Speaker 2: Oh wait, Olive Olive again? She is too, Emma Gannon

1466
01:14:14,160 --> 01:14:17,000
Speaker 2: or Allah or Elizabeth Strapp.

1467
01:14:16,720 --> 01:14:17,960
Speaker 1: Those it's Elizabeth Stroud.

1468
01:14:18,080 --> 01:14:22,400
Speaker 2: Okay, Yeah, there's another book called Olive by Emma Gannon. No,

1469
01:14:22,439 --> 01:14:23,679
Speaker 2: it's from twenty twenty one.

1470
01:14:23,880 --> 01:14:24,639
Speaker 1: No, it's Stroud.

1471
01:14:24,840 --> 01:14:25,240
Speaker 2: Okay.

1472
01:14:25,600 --> 01:14:28,960
Speaker 1: Yeah. And then I read Trust by Hernan Diez. Have

1473
01:14:29,080 --> 01:14:29,479
Speaker 1: you read that?

1474
01:14:29,960 --> 01:14:30,200
Speaker 2: No?

1475
01:14:30,320 --> 01:14:33,160
Speaker 1: Oh you should. It's it's all about what this guy.

1476
01:14:33,600 --> 01:14:36,200
Speaker 1: It's I think it's a fabrication, but it's this guy

1477
01:14:36,280 --> 01:14:39,240
Speaker 1: that lived during the Great Depression. And there's actually three

1478
01:14:39,280 --> 01:14:43,000
Speaker 1: stories interwoven into one, and so you get the like

1479
01:14:43,040 --> 01:14:46,200
Speaker 1: the fictionalized version of this guy's life. And then that

1480
01:14:46,280 --> 01:14:49,200
Speaker 1: guy becomes the second part of the book and we

1481
01:14:49,240 --> 01:14:51,840
Speaker 1: get to hear his actual story, not one that's like

1482
01:14:51,960 --> 01:14:55,720
Speaker 1: fabricated by this author. And then you get another part

1483
01:14:55,800 --> 01:14:57,960
Speaker 1: of the book that goes a little bit deeper into

1484
01:14:58,000 --> 01:15:01,479
Speaker 1: his wife's life, and so it's really it's I think

1485
01:15:01,479 --> 01:15:02,200
Speaker 1: I want to Poultzer.

1486
01:15:02,560 --> 01:15:05,599
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm looking at it right now. Could surprise winner. Yeah,

1487
01:15:05,640 --> 01:15:09,640
Speaker 2: I love when authors are like twenty twenty three, that

1488
01:15:09,760 --> 01:15:10,360
Speaker 2: was last year.

1489
01:15:10,479 --> 01:15:11,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's really good.

1490
01:15:11,680 --> 01:15:14,439
Speaker 2: I understand the hardcover and the paperback are now the

1491
01:15:14,479 --> 01:15:15,160
Speaker 2: same price.

1492
01:15:15,680 --> 01:15:18,280
Speaker 1: The new books are tough, tough industy.

1493
01:15:18,280 --> 01:15:20,479
Speaker 2: I guess one of the New York Times one hundred

1494
01:15:20,520 --> 01:15:22,679
Speaker 2: best books of the twenty first century.

1495
01:15:22,960 --> 01:15:24,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's quite good, as.

1496
01:15:24,560 --> 01:15:26,800
Speaker 2: Long as they've read every book in the twenty first

1497
01:15:26,800 --> 01:15:30,519
Speaker 2: century so they can make an informed evaluation like that.

1498
01:15:31,000 --> 01:15:31,720
Speaker 1: It's a big claim.

1499
01:15:31,760 --> 01:15:32,439
Speaker 2: I'm down with that.

1500
01:15:32,600 --> 01:15:32,800
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1501
01:15:32,840 --> 01:15:37,400
Speaker 2: I know it's again more stupid media stuff the modern era.

1502
01:15:37,960 --> 01:15:40,840
Speaker 2: So that's a great list of books right there. Yeah,

1503
01:15:41,040 --> 01:15:43,120
Speaker 2: I skipped the question to get to books that I

1504
01:15:43,160 --> 01:15:45,760
Speaker 2: have to ask you, But I'm not sure if you

1505
01:15:45,760 --> 01:15:48,880
Speaker 2: can have a good answer, which is who are your

1506
01:15:48,920 --> 01:15:50,719
Speaker 2: mentors who helped shape your career?

1507
01:15:51,000 --> 01:15:53,360
Speaker 1: Oh, because what I said about the mentor things, well, I.

1508
01:15:53,320 --> 01:15:55,880
Speaker 2: Know, Jim O'Shaughnessy is obviously a big influence.

1509
01:15:55,920 --> 01:15:58,120
Speaker 1: Oh gosh, I've had so many people like I could

1510
01:15:58,280 --> 01:15:59,160
Speaker 1: we'd be here all day.

1511
01:15:59,200 --> 01:16:01,160
Speaker 2: If I listed every give us one or two.

1512
01:16:01,280 --> 01:16:03,720
Speaker 1: So the two people that have probably been the most

1513
01:16:03,720 --> 01:16:06,160
Speaker 1: influential because they believed in me before I did, was

1514
01:16:06,240 --> 01:16:09,440
Speaker 1: my two professors in college, doctor Chocci and doctor Lebedinski.

1515
01:16:09,800 --> 01:16:11,360
Speaker 1: I basically would go to them and be like, I

1516
01:16:11,439 --> 01:16:13,200
Speaker 1: want to start a club, I want to do research

1517
01:16:13,479 --> 01:16:15,720
Speaker 1: around this s and P five hundred, I want to

1518
01:16:16,160 --> 01:16:19,040
Speaker 1: go travel to this conference. And they'd be like, all right, good,

1519
01:16:19,439 --> 01:16:21,240
Speaker 1: and they would just help me kind of achieve all

1520
01:16:21,280 --> 01:16:25,720
Speaker 1: of these streams that I had, And so they were phenomenal.

1521
01:16:25,760 --> 01:16:28,040
Speaker 1: Like I remember, I was applying to jobs and I

1522
01:16:28,080 --> 01:16:30,479
Speaker 1: wanted to do a PhD because I really wanted to teach,

1523
01:16:30,680 --> 01:16:33,080
Speaker 1: and doctor Chacci was like, no, you should go work

1524
01:16:33,120 --> 01:16:35,559
Speaker 1: in industry for a little bit and then you can

1525
01:16:35,600 --> 01:16:37,840
Speaker 1: go and get your PhD. And so it's just kind

1526
01:16:37,840 --> 01:16:42,160
Speaker 1: of like that really tailored advice and support and they

1527
01:16:42,200 --> 01:16:45,320
Speaker 1: were probably the most important people to me during my

1528
01:16:45,360 --> 01:16:46,040
Speaker 1: college time.

1529
01:16:46,240 --> 01:16:50,480
Speaker 2: You know, that's really interesting. Angus Deeton, who is the

1530
01:16:50,560 --> 01:16:54,000
Speaker 2: British economist who won the Nobel Prize, and I think

1531
01:16:54,040 --> 01:16:56,880
Speaker 2: he's teaching. Is he teaching at Princeton. Yeah, he's teaching

1532
01:16:56,880 --> 01:17:00,320
Speaker 2: at Princeton, and he said, you could look across a

1533
01:17:00,439 --> 01:17:05,040
Speaker 2: thousand different factors and nothing impacts your life as much

1534
01:17:05,080 --> 01:17:08,320
Speaker 2: as a higher education. We see it in wealth, inequality,

1535
01:17:08,360 --> 01:17:11,639
Speaker 2: income and equality, health outcomes, whether you go to jail,

1536
01:17:11,640 --> 01:17:15,120
Speaker 2: whether you get divorced, like all these social things that

1537
01:17:15,160 --> 01:17:20,200
Speaker 2: you would think are unrelated your self described happiness quotient

1538
01:17:20,439 --> 01:17:25,120
Speaker 2: like deep deep down the rabbit hole, And consistently there

1539
01:17:25,200 --> 01:17:30,320
Speaker 2: is a gap between between what we see on the

1540
01:17:32,280 --> 01:17:35,320
Speaker 2: have at college education and don't it's pretty amazing.

1541
01:17:35,439 --> 01:17:37,360
Speaker 1: Well, I mean it's kind of for like, I work

1542
01:17:37,400 --> 01:17:40,559
Speaker 1: three jobs during college, but it's four years to sort

1543
01:17:40,560 --> 01:17:43,439
Speaker 1: of figure yourself out. And I actually think that's really

1544
01:17:43,479 --> 01:17:46,000
Speaker 1: important because you learn how to socialize, you learn how

1545
01:17:46,040 --> 01:17:49,800
Speaker 1: to learn, You get tested, but in an environment where

1546
01:17:49,840 --> 01:17:52,479
Speaker 1: like if you fail, it's okay most of the time.

1547
01:17:52,560 --> 01:17:54,240
Speaker 1: Like if you feel out of college, it's not okay,

1548
01:17:54,560 --> 01:17:57,600
Speaker 1: but you kind of have the chance to make safe mistakes,

1549
01:17:57,680 --> 01:17:58,559
Speaker 1: is what I would call it.

1550
01:17:59,080 --> 01:18:02,479
Speaker 2: And that's the true today with well, it seems like

1551
01:18:02,520 --> 01:18:05,000
Speaker 2: some of the campuses, some of that has kind of

1552
01:18:05,000 --> 01:18:05,960
Speaker 2: become more challenging.

1553
01:18:06,000 --> 01:18:11,200
Speaker 1: Well ever, yeah, from a political angle, absolutely, yeah, I think.

1554
01:18:11,120 --> 01:18:14,160
Speaker 2: But it should but what you were describing should be

1555
01:18:14,200 --> 01:18:16,360
Speaker 2: true it should be a place where you can make mistakes.

1556
01:18:16,400 --> 01:18:18,720
Speaker 1: I think. So I graduated in twenty nineteen, and I

1557
01:18:18,760 --> 01:18:22,760
Speaker 1: think I was the last year to have that. I

1558
01:18:22,800 --> 01:18:26,800
Speaker 1: do because of the pandemic and because I just like

1559
01:18:27,120 --> 01:18:29,280
Speaker 1: the scholarship package that I got and the reason that

1560
01:18:29,320 --> 01:18:31,800
Speaker 1: I went to Western Kentucky. It was a full ride

1561
01:18:32,000 --> 01:18:35,000
Speaker 1: and I was paid to have school, and there's nothing

1562
01:18:35,120 --> 01:18:37,519
Speaker 1: like that unless you're like a top, top top student.

1563
01:18:37,640 --> 01:18:40,680
Speaker 1: And I was a good student. But it was an

1564
01:18:40,680 --> 01:18:43,720
Speaker 1: in state school, and so I had all these opportunities

1565
01:18:43,920 --> 01:18:46,160
Speaker 1: because I was able to have a full ride. And

1566
01:18:46,400 --> 01:18:47,080
Speaker 1: I just don't think that.

1567
01:18:47,040 --> 01:18:49,760
Speaker 2: Where else did you consider going besides in state of

1568
01:18:49,800 --> 01:18:50,600
Speaker 2: a Vanderbilt.

1569
01:18:50,640 --> 01:18:52,799
Speaker 1: I wanted to stay close to my family, So Vanderbilt,

1570
01:18:52,880 --> 01:18:55,439
Speaker 1: which was in Tennessee, I was in Kentucky. I was

1571
01:18:55,479 --> 01:18:58,960
Speaker 1: looking at Butler up in Indiana, Notre Dame. Yeah, like

1572
01:18:59,040 --> 01:18:59,719
Speaker 1: just kind.

1573
01:18:59,520 --> 01:19:02,479
Speaker 2: Of big us little schools both. Yeah, you looked at everything.

1574
01:19:02,680 --> 01:19:05,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wanted like a good school because I did

1575
01:19:05,920 --> 01:19:06,200
Speaker 1: want to.

1576
01:19:06,360 --> 01:19:08,360
Speaker 2: Well, none of these are bad schools. You're talking about

1577
01:19:08,360 --> 01:19:09,839
Speaker 2: all it good or better schools.

1578
01:19:09,920 --> 01:19:12,439
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, but like I wanted to leave Kentucky and

1579
01:19:12,439 --> 01:19:13,840
Speaker 1: the only way I knew how to get out was

1580
01:19:13,880 --> 01:19:17,400
Speaker 1: like through education, and so that's why I was looking

1581
01:19:17,439 --> 01:19:20,080
Speaker 1: at a schools, but I ended up staying in Western

1582
01:19:20,160 --> 01:19:23,960
Speaker 1: Kentucky because the scholarship and it turned out to be

1583
01:19:24,000 --> 01:19:25,040
Speaker 1: an incredible experience.

1584
01:19:25,080 --> 01:19:28,800
Speaker 2: Huh, to say the very least. And our final two questions,

1585
01:19:29,600 --> 01:19:31,880
Speaker 2: what sort of advice would you give to a recent

1586
01:19:31,960 --> 01:19:36,160
Speaker 2: college grad interested in a career in either finance or

1587
01:19:36,479 --> 01:19:37,599
Speaker 2: investing education?

1588
01:19:38,160 --> 01:19:41,400
Speaker 1: So I think for me, and this is the advice

1589
01:19:41,439 --> 01:19:44,639
Speaker 1: I give when people ask, is like to read everything

1590
01:19:45,320 --> 01:19:47,320
Speaker 1: and to figure out what you'd like to read, and

1591
01:19:47,360 --> 01:19:49,920
Speaker 1: then try to challenge yourself to explain it, to write

1592
01:19:49,920 --> 01:19:52,800
Speaker 1: about it, to learn about it as deeply as you can.

1593
01:19:52,840 --> 01:19:54,719
Speaker 1: And I think the only way that you actually understand

1594
01:19:54,720 --> 01:19:57,120
Speaker 1: stuff is if you can explain it simply. And so

1595
01:19:57,160 --> 01:19:59,160
Speaker 1: that's what I would recommend to just be a consumer

1596
01:19:59,200 --> 01:20:02,080
Speaker 1: and ask questions. You'd be surprised how many people are

1597
01:20:02,080 --> 01:20:04,519
Speaker 1: willing to just take thirty minutes to chat with you

1598
01:20:05,040 --> 01:20:06,840
Speaker 1: and just ask her help as much as you can.

1599
01:20:07,000 --> 01:20:09,920
Speaker 1: But yeah, to absorb as much as possible, but then

1600
01:20:09,920 --> 01:20:12,559
Speaker 1: make sure you're digesting it by repeating it back to yourself,

1601
01:20:12,560 --> 01:20:14,000
Speaker 1: whether through writing, videos, etc.

1602
01:20:15,000 --> 01:20:17,240
Speaker 2: And our final question comes with a little bit of

1603
01:20:17,320 --> 01:20:21,080
Speaker 2: a caveat. So I always share the last five questions,

1604
01:20:21,240 --> 01:20:24,439
Speaker 2: partly because they require a little recall with our guests

1605
01:20:24,439 --> 01:20:26,800
Speaker 2: in advance. And I asked you, what do you know

1606
01:20:26,840 --> 01:20:29,640
Speaker 2: about the world of investing today that you wish you

1607
01:20:29,680 --> 01:20:33,280
Speaker 2: knew twenty five years ago? And you hilariously wrote back

1608
01:20:33,680 --> 01:20:37,839
Speaker 2: twenty five years ago I was one, don't bite the cat.

1609
01:20:37,960 --> 01:20:40,439
Speaker 2: I mean, I think that's so funny. I don't know

1610
01:20:40,439 --> 01:20:42,400
Speaker 2: if you said that or Dave Knadi said that, and

1611
01:20:42,800 --> 01:20:45,400
Speaker 2: our back and forth. I shared your answer with him

1612
01:20:45,400 --> 01:20:47,880
Speaker 2: and he think I think he said don't bite the cat. Yeah, yeah,

1613
01:20:48,920 --> 01:20:51,120
Speaker 2: But what do you know today that might have been

1614
01:20:51,120 --> 01:20:53,559
Speaker 2: helpful earlier in your career.

1615
01:20:54,200 --> 01:20:56,960
Speaker 1: I think for me, there's so many facets to finance,

1616
01:20:57,040 --> 01:20:58,840
Speaker 1: Like I was very much like, oh, there's one thing

1617
01:20:58,840 --> 01:21:01,400
Speaker 1: I can do, and it's portfolio management. But there's so

1618
01:21:01,479 --> 01:21:03,920
Speaker 1: much that you can do. Education, you can look into

1619
01:21:04,000 --> 01:21:07,720
Speaker 1: ira spaces, you will do you can do media like,

1620
01:21:07,760 --> 01:21:11,000
Speaker 1: there's just and there's so many different worlds within finance, commodities,

1621
01:21:11,240 --> 01:21:15,040
Speaker 1: fixed income, equities. It's really massive. And so I think

1622
01:21:15,439 --> 01:21:17,840
Speaker 1: the advice that I would give to my one year

1623
01:21:17,880 --> 01:21:20,719
Speaker 1: old self is to, you know, just keep on learning.

1624
01:21:20,960 --> 01:21:23,599
Speaker 1: In similar to the device I give previous, but really

1625
01:21:23,760 --> 01:21:25,519
Speaker 1: just know that the world is so big and there's

1626
01:21:25,560 --> 01:21:29,360
Speaker 1: so much opportunity within these segments that are just fascinating

1627
01:21:29,400 --> 01:21:31,040
Speaker 1: to explore you to spend a lifetime doing it.

1628
01:21:31,120 --> 01:21:33,639
Speaker 2: Well, thank you, Kyla for being so generous with your time.

1629
01:21:33,640 --> 01:21:34,880
Speaker 2: I'm gonna have to have you sign this.

1630
01:21:35,080 --> 01:21:35,760
Speaker 1: Oh, thank you.

1631
01:21:36,479 --> 01:21:39,080
Speaker 2: We have been speaking with Kyla Scanlon. She is the

1632
01:21:39,120 --> 01:21:43,479
Speaker 2: author of In This Economy, How Money and Markets Really Work.

1633
01:21:44,000 --> 01:21:46,680
Speaker 2: If you enjoy this conversation, well, check out any of

1634
01:21:46,720 --> 01:21:49,360
Speaker 2: the five hundred or so we've done over the past

1635
01:21:49,560 --> 01:21:53,759
Speaker 2: ten years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, YouTube,

1636
01:21:53,800 --> 01:21:57,880
Speaker 2: wherever you find your favorite podcasts, and check out my

1637
01:21:58,000 --> 01:22:02,040
Speaker 2: new show At the Money, short ten minute discussions about

1638
01:22:02,080 --> 01:22:07,000
Speaker 2: specific topics in finance, earning money, spending it, and most

1639
01:22:07,080 --> 01:22:11,160
Speaker 2: importantly investing it At the Money, wherever you find your

1640
01:22:11,160 --> 01:22:14,960
Speaker 2: favorite podcasts, and in the Master's in Business feed. I

1641
01:22:14,960 --> 01:22:17,000
Speaker 2: would be remiss if I did not thank the Crack

1642
01:22:17,120 --> 01:22:20,639
Speaker 2: staff who helps us put these conversations together each week.

1643
01:22:20,800 --> 01:22:24,559
Speaker 2: A Teak of Albron is my project manager. Anna Luke

1644
01:22:24,680 --> 01:22:27,879
Speaker 2: is my producer. Sean Russo is my head of research.

1645
01:22:28,360 --> 01:22:32,120
Speaker 2: Sage Bauman is the head of podcasts at Bloomberg. I'm

1646
01:22:32,120 --> 01:22:35,800
Speaker 2: Barry Ritolts. You've been listening to Masters in Business on

1647
01:22:35,920 --> 01:22:39,920
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio