WEBVTT - Saxo’s ‘Outrageous’ Prediction? Gold Will Top $3,000 in 2023 0:00:00.520 --> 0:00:04.960 Well, John, hello again. We did a trailer for this 0:00:05.000 --> 0:00:07.520 podcast a little while ago in which I told all 0:00:07.520 --> 0:00:10.600 our loyal listeners not get excited about hearing from you 0:00:10.640 --> 0:00:12.039 all the time, because I wasn't gonna let you on 0:00:12.119 --> 0:00:16.120 very often. But there's been protests, and I think, actually, 0:00:16.160 --> 0:00:18.920 you're going to be on for almost every episode. We're 0:00:18.920 --> 0:00:21.080 going to have a little chat before we get into 0:00:21.120 --> 0:00:24.439 the meat of me talking to our guests. So so 0:00:24.560 --> 0:00:26.680 you know, that's nice, that's good. I'm glad that the 0:00:26.880 --> 0:00:30.440 Pitchfort building more booksually the bloom Bed building. What favorite 0:00:30.600 --> 0:00:35.360 good about it too. Now, listen, this is our favorite 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:37.479 time of year, you and I. We've been working together 0:00:37.520 --> 0:00:40.519 a long time and December always says something really special 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:44.400 about it for us, Which is it? This is the 0:00:44.479 --> 0:00:47.560 time of year, It's the season for forecasts. That's when 0:00:47.600 --> 0:00:50.120 people start telling us what they think is going to 0:00:50.159 --> 0:00:52.840 happen next year, and we can make fun of them, 0:00:53.159 --> 0:00:56.280 which really works, doesn't it. Yeah, it's basically the S 0:00:56.360 --> 0:00:59.880 and P will go up by seven s, devotake whatever it, 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:02.160 and not bail last year. And we have the particular 0:01:02.240 --> 0:01:04.200 joy of looking at the forecast they made last year 0:01:04.640 --> 0:01:08.080 and comparing it to what really happened. Yeah, and it's 0:01:08.080 --> 0:01:10.880 always wrong, always wrong. That will come onto more of that, 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:12.520 and when we get into the meat of the podcast, 0:01:12.560 --> 0:01:15.440 I say, without without excellent guests today. But one of 0:01:15.480 --> 0:01:17.759 the things that people are starting doing is talking about 0:01:17.840 --> 0:01:21.000 their surprise predictions for next year, things you don't think 0:01:21.040 --> 0:01:24.559 will happen, that they think will happen. And very often 0:01:24.560 --> 0:01:26.040 I look at those, no thing, well, I wouldn't really 0:01:26.080 --> 0:01:28.240 surprise me at all. So one of the banks to 0:01:28.280 --> 0:01:29.840 come up with standard charge will come out with one 0:01:30.080 --> 0:01:32.880 this week, which is that over the next year the 0:01:32.920 --> 0:01:35.840 price of bitcoin may fall to five thou dollars. And 0:01:36.319 --> 0:01:39.520 wasn't that a given? That surprised me with that surprise? You? No, 0:01:39.560 --> 0:01:41.520 I mean not at all. I mean I think one 0:01:41.520 --> 0:01:43.960 of the things with these surprise predictions is though usually 0:01:44.040 --> 0:01:48.440 things that kind of mainstream analyst feels an attain a 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:51.600 bit controversial because it's a place move that it goes 0:01:51.640 --> 0:01:55.800 beyond seven of the way, and that's basically anything other 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:59.320 than that would be a surprise. But yeah, I mean, 0:01:59.320 --> 0:02:02.840 black coin form five thousan dollars isn't isn't I wouldn't say, 0:02:02.960 --> 0:02:05.560 But like kind of we out there, I mean, zero 0:02:05.600 --> 0:02:07.600 would be a surprise, but only because of the time frame. 0:02:07.840 --> 0:02:09.600 Zero within two or three years wouldn't be a surprise, 0:02:10.120 --> 0:02:12.240 will be a surprise because of the time frame. I mean, 0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:16.399 I still I know that me and you slightly kind 0:02:16.440 --> 0:02:20.200 of don't entirely. And that's when I still think backcoin 0:02:20.720 --> 0:02:25.639 has got some kind of potential. But think think, but 0:02:25.720 --> 0:02:29.760 I just think it's very, very, very manor um because 0:02:29.800 --> 0:02:32.360 it's really too complicated to you. You've been on Twitter 0:02:32.400 --> 0:02:38.200 asking people for explanations, and you know what they say. 0:02:38.240 --> 0:02:41.520 They say, educate yourself, and then they send me reading 0:02:41.520 --> 0:02:43.799 this and I read all those books. In fact, I 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:46.120 recommended those books to you in the first place. And 0:02:46.200 --> 0:02:48.400 reading those books didn't get me any further. It was 0:02:48.520 --> 0:02:52.280 understanding what the use case is. And people keep telling me, 0:02:52.320 --> 0:02:54.799 you know that at the very very worst, even if 0:02:54.840 --> 0:02:56.960 nobody else used at all, it will be continued to 0:02:56.960 --> 0:03:01.120 be used by the criminal community, and that possibly work 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:03.720 because you can only laun the money out of the 0:03:03.760 --> 0:03:07.240 black economy if you can laundrip via something that people 0:03:07.240 --> 0:03:09.160 in the non black economy use. And if we don't 0:03:09.240 --> 0:03:11.520 use bitcoing, then criminals can't use bit going because they 0:03:11.520 --> 0:03:15.079 can't launder it from their world to our world. Well, yeah, 0:03:15.080 --> 0:03:17.680 because you know that anyone who's using missing something. No, no, 0:03:17.760 --> 0:03:19.160 I mean that that'st thing you are really. I mean, 0:03:19.160 --> 0:03:21.040 because you know that anyone who's using a bitcoin or 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:25.959 ramp as a criminal, which is quite checking. You know. 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:27.480 It's the way that I guess, like, I don't know 0:03:27.480 --> 0:03:29.280 who's going to sue you for that, but someone's going to. 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:34.280 I haven't labeled anyone specifically. What would happen next year 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:37.040 that everyone's going to think is surprised. Isn't going to 0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:40.240 be a surprise to here? I actually think that, I mean, 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:42.280 that's all this is a very important one. But I 0:03:42.320 --> 0:03:43.840 don't think that the UK is going to go in 0:03:43.960 --> 0:03:46.440 a devastating resisation. Nicely, thing is going to end up 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:49.119 being a fairly kind of good place to have put 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:52.120 your money this year when everyone was parany king about it. 0:03:52.360 --> 0:03:53.560 But it can be a good place to put your 0:03:53.560 --> 0:03:55.960 money and still have a devastating recession. These things aren't 0:03:56.000 --> 0:03:59.119 necessarily match. I mean, we've written so many times over 0:03:59.160 --> 0:04:01.760 the years that there's no correlation between GDP and stock 0:04:01.800 --> 0:04:03.920 market performance that I mean, it's not going to do 0:04:03.960 --> 0:04:06.080 the GDP. But I still think that Britain is going 0:04:06.120 --> 0:04:10.000 to do better than everyone expects. I'm concerned because I 0:04:10.320 --> 0:04:14.119 have this horrible feeling that mild might be the new transitory. Well, 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:19.479 I know it's jacky, it's chicky. My gut feeling is 0:04:19.520 --> 0:04:24.680 that it's not going to be as bad as people 0:04:24.720 --> 0:04:27.880 think it's going to be. Um. I to think the 0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:30.640 energy prices are probably going to come down more than 0:04:30.720 --> 0:04:35.800 people expect. So it's actually kind of a believe or not. 0:04:35.839 --> 0:04:39.760 It's kind of an optimistic upside one. But that is 0:04:40.680 --> 0:04:42.440 that is going out there on the limb for me, 0:04:42.640 --> 0:04:46.800 because I'm not I'm gonna naturally bearish listen as you 0:04:46.839 --> 0:04:50.080 should know that I'm looking at John disapprovingly at the moment. Honestly, 0:04:50.120 --> 0:04:56.280 I'm weathering, literally weathering here. John. Thank you so much 0:04:56.320 --> 0:04:58.800 for coming on and talking again, and listeners, I think 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:01.760 you're gonna hear from again next tweet unless you get fined. 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:11.200 Welcome to Marin Talks Money, the podcast in which people 0:05:11.200 --> 0:05:14.120 who know the markets explain the markets. I'm there in 0:05:14.160 --> 0:05:17.239 some st web this week. A conversation with Saxo Banks 0:05:17.279 --> 0:05:20.120 chief investment Officer Stean Jacobson, who joins with the banks 0:05:20.160 --> 0:05:25.480 ten outrageous predictions for twenty three. He does this every year, 0:05:25.720 --> 0:05:28.880 lots of outrageous stuff. We've just had a John's outrageous 0:05:28.880 --> 0:05:32.960 predictions for next year, which relatively positive. However, I started 0:05:32.960 --> 0:05:34.919 my conversation with Stean with a look back at their 0:05:35.000 --> 0:05:38.719 predictions for this year and how they panned out. I 0:05:38.800 --> 0:05:42.120 think it's one of the better years. Although, as as 0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:44.760 you were well know, we actually don't set out trying 0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:47.960 to be right about anything. It's it's it's more a 0:05:48.040 --> 0:05:51.760 conversation story and more sort of a perspective of the 0:05:52.360 --> 0:05:55.400 fat tales. But yeah, I think the one that probably 0:05:56.080 --> 0:05:58.880 cost the most money for the average investor is the 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:02.200 prediction that there would be a face plant, and matter, 0:06:03.400 --> 0:06:06.120 I think we can safely say that one came through. 0:06:06.360 --> 0:06:08.880 Can we say that the young abandoned the platforms in 0:06:08.920 --> 0:06:12.640 protest against their mining of personal information for profit? Can 0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:14.080 we say that? Or can we just say the share 0:06:14.120 --> 0:06:17.120 price fell a lot where we can certainly say that later? 0:06:17.200 --> 0:06:20.680 And I think as as you are as experienced as 0:06:20.720 --> 0:06:24.000 I am in doing this, it's uh not always that 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:27.600 you get either the direction or the in result right. 0:06:27.680 --> 0:06:29.719 But sometimes you get the results right, and sometimes you 0:06:29.760 --> 0:06:32.400 get the arguments, right, But I think what we were 0:06:32.400 --> 0:06:34.200 trying to say last year was that a lot of 0:06:34.240 --> 0:06:36.880 people would be abandoning matter, and certainly in the Investor 0:06:36.960 --> 0:06:39.400 did abandoned matter. And I also think to a lot 0:06:39.440 --> 0:06:42.080 of extent, the point that young people don't want to 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:44.839 be part of it has shown up in of course, 0:06:45.320 --> 0:06:48.320 if nothing else, in the meta space, which was supposed 0:06:48.320 --> 0:06:52.000 to be populated by young people coming onto this virtual world. 0:06:52.080 --> 0:06:54.640 But I think the young people like me and maybe 0:06:54.640 --> 0:06:57.200 I'll talk for you as well, is figuring out that 0:06:57.240 --> 0:07:00.679 the reality the real world is hard in our uh, 0:07:00.800 --> 0:07:03.839 then also having to navigate a virtual world is probably 0:07:03.839 --> 0:07:06.320 a little bit too much in the present conditions. It's 0:07:06.320 --> 0:07:09.440 absolutely true, neither of my children or on Facebook. So 0:07:09.640 --> 0:07:12.400 there you go. You win that one. What about the 0:07:12.480 --> 0:07:15.280 first one you had last year, the planned and fossil 0:07:15.320 --> 0:07:17.920 fuels gets a rain check. I mean, it's not formal, 0:07:18.400 --> 0:07:20.760 the putting a rain check on that plan, But it's 0:07:20.760 --> 0:07:24.840 definitely happening, isn't it. It's definitely happening, and it's uh. 0:07:25.000 --> 0:07:27.560 I think it's become even more relevant today than it 0:07:27.680 --> 0:07:30.240 was last year, in the sense that if you think 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:33.840 about what twenty three really meant of course Ukraine War 0:07:34.000 --> 0:07:37.360 was the starting point and to a last extent, a 0:07:37.360 --> 0:07:40.720 acceleration of the trench in place. Uh. You know, one 0:07:40.800 --> 0:07:45.360 year ago Germany had its free tier approach, which was 0:07:45.560 --> 0:07:49.800 to export to China, uh, depending on very low energy 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:52.480 price from Russia and not having to pay off for 0:07:52.520 --> 0:07:55.200 its military. I would say all of those things has changed. 0:07:55.200 --> 0:07:58.080 But what has really changed in particularly in Germany, of course, 0:07:58.240 --> 0:08:00.760 is a party like the Green Party of Protest moving 0:08:01.120 --> 0:08:04.520 in the energy space, is now fully on board on 0:08:04.920 --> 0:08:09.920 reopening nuclear power and on the case which is and 0:08:09.960 --> 0:08:14.080 this is the case globally that energy and re energy 0:08:14.200 --> 0:08:17.800 sourcing has become a number one priority for every single 0:08:17.840 --> 0:08:20.600 government around the world. So I think it's pretty faith 0:08:20.720 --> 0:08:23.440 to say, at a bare minimum that fossil energy is 0:08:23.440 --> 0:08:26.200 still part of the solution. I don't think the green 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:30.280 movement on the green voteness of the situation has disappeared. 0:08:30.560 --> 0:08:32.720 I don't think in terms of the latest cup that 0:08:32.840 --> 0:08:36.319 we are anywhere closer to getting the results we want. 0:08:36.400 --> 0:08:39.640 But certainly we all know, we all know now that 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:44.240 we we need to think about energy as a strategic resource. Okay, well, 0:08:44.280 --> 0:08:48.880 that's two major successes. What of the others I think 0:08:49.440 --> 0:08:52.160 I will have maybe not an A plus, but we 0:08:52.160 --> 0:08:54.360 will have a B plus for calling inflation to the 0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:57.280 level that we called it. I think we put in 0:08:57.400 --> 0:09:02.040 a unimaginable at the time level of if I'm not mistaken, 0:09:02.120 --> 0:09:08.520 twelve um fifteen, fifteen, Yeah, no, fifteen, US inflation reaches 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:12.000 above fifteen cent home wage price spiral um. But in 0:09:12.160 --> 0:09:14.120 that that might not have happened this year, but it 0:09:14.200 --> 0:09:17.959 could easily happen next year. Yeah. And and the reason 0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:21.400 for the fifteen percent was really that was four was 0:09:21.480 --> 0:09:23.800 to peak in the nineteen seventies, So we were trying 0:09:23.840 --> 0:09:26.560 to outdo whatever happened in the nineteen seventies. And I think, 0:09:26.600 --> 0:09:30.080 as you rightly allude to, I still think the game 0:09:30.200 --> 0:09:33.560 is on. Of course, the market right now, what whether 0:09:33.600 --> 0:09:36.240 you look at break even, two, five, ten, or thirties, 0:09:36.280 --> 0:09:38.360 they all think that it's going to to thirty five. 0:09:39.000 --> 0:09:41.079 Just as a side note, I think it's interesting whatever 0:09:41.120 --> 0:09:43.319 happens in the next thirty years. Apparently the market has 0:09:43.360 --> 0:09:46.760 dictated that inflation will be a two and thirty five 0:09:46.840 --> 0:09:50.079 two point thirty five basis point two undred thirty five 0:09:50.120 --> 0:09:53.080 basis points inflation. But that's interesting in itself. But no, 0:09:53.600 --> 0:09:55.640 I don't think in any shape of form that the 0:09:55.679 --> 0:09:58.640 inflation story is over yet. It's interesting. It's real anchoring, 0:09:58.720 --> 0:10:01.600 isn't it. That's just everyone thinking, well, it'll go back 0:10:01.640 --> 0:10:05.200 to where it was. It's very much pious confirmation. But 0:10:05.240 --> 0:10:07.720 I also think it's a true reflection of central banks 0:10:08.600 --> 0:10:12.600 unimaginative models. The models is outdated, The model is not 0:10:14.000 --> 0:10:17.480 working with real time data, is not working with a 0:10:17.559 --> 0:10:20.800 bottom up analysis. Is all macro, and we both know 0:10:20.920 --> 0:10:24.760 that macro is very good dinner conversation, but it's very 0:10:24.800 --> 0:10:27.880 difficult to predict. And I think they have remained with 0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:31.560 this transitory going back to normal all by itself. Apparently 0:10:31.679 --> 0:10:34.559 my energy is going to solve yourself. Supply change is 0:10:34.600 --> 0:10:37.559 going to solve yourself. Degol obsiation is going to solve yourself. 0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:41.240 And another note, I'm very pleased that everything just solve yourself. 0:10:41.280 --> 0:10:43.400 I think that is a great strategy. I would be 0:10:43.440 --> 0:10:49.560 through the fould happen, wouldn't you certainly preferred? But I'm not. 0:10:50.440 --> 0:10:52.319 I have not I don't have enough hair to actually 0:10:52.360 --> 0:10:54.760 believe the things solved themselves. I do think they need 0:10:54.880 --> 0:10:58.880 some actionable and and and some good things to come 0:10:58.880 --> 0:11:00.560 out of it. As as I know. What I do 0:11:00.640 --> 0:11:02.480 think that there is a solution to this, and this 0:11:02.679 --> 0:11:05.240 is that you know, the energy crisis, the level of 0:11:05.320 --> 0:11:09.160 energy has forced ourselves to at least start considering that 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:11.840 we need to live in a productive society. I don't 0:11:11.880 --> 0:11:14.319 think it's fully transparent in politics, but I think it's 0:11:14.400 --> 0:11:17.560 very transparent when I talk to companies at a company level. 0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:20.160 They all understand that the margin in terms of into 0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:23.400 prices growing up, and the only way to counter that 0:11:23.480 --> 0:11:27.480 will be more productivity, which means better education, better products, 0:11:27.559 --> 0:11:32.160 better services. Do think that ultimately the higher prices will 0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:36.199 lead to lower prices, but driven by productivity, not by hoping, 0:11:36.320 --> 0:11:39.600 not by praying, and certainly not by waiting. I think 0:11:39.640 --> 0:11:44.280 that's the most optimistic thing I've heard anyone. Yeah, given her, 0:11:44.520 --> 0:11:46.959 given her, bad productivity has been for so long, it's 0:11:47.000 --> 0:11:50.640 interesting the idea that productivity could be bad. Low productivity 0:11:50.679 --> 0:11:53.080 could be a function of energy being too cheap and 0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:55.600 too abundant. I mean, that's what people offer say about 0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:58.120 labor costs and labor in the UK in particular, if 0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:00.800 you have a too much available of labor to lower price, 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:04.400 you inhibit your own productivity gains the same idea or 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:08.520 a journalist in of all places. Estonia asked me a 0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:11.319 great question earlier this year. He said, okay, stay enough 0:12:11.400 --> 0:12:13.800 gave If I gave you a magic one, what would 0:12:13.800 --> 0:12:15.920 you do with it? I think you're being a banker. 0:12:15.960 --> 0:12:18.680 He expected me to say, turn everything into gold. But 0:12:18.840 --> 0:12:23.480 right then, and they're there, they're right there. In a moment, 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:25.720 I actually realized that what I would want was that 0:12:25.800 --> 0:12:28.480 the marginal cost of energy would go to zero. That 0:12:28.600 --> 0:12:33.920 would facilitate desalinational water, vertical farming at scale. It would 0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:38.600 increase the computer powerability, will improve the ability of you know, 0:12:38.880 --> 0:12:41.559 longevity and the like. So I think, if you think 0:12:41.600 --> 0:12:44.199 about it in that context of productivity, what is holding 0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:47.240 us back is actually the high level of energy prices 0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:52.000 and as the present non actionable, the non plan on 0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:55.920 dealing with this is driving the margin price of energy up, 0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:59.120 which means that, as you say, we are challenged on productivity. 0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:03.480 But the solution clearly is to get closer to a 0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:09.400 multi approach on energy, more basic investment, more basic research, 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:12.480 and think about you know, as a as an analog. 0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:16.040 You know, when we had the COVID starting, people was 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:18.480 talking about three, four or five years before the vactually 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:22.320 would be available, but throwing enough money added open sourcing 0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:25.480 it and then you may in the number one priority 0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:29.000 created that productivity in vaccine. I don't see why we 0:13:29.040 --> 0:13:32.320 cannot do the same about energy, because clearly it is 0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:36.440 punitive to the consumers, is punity to the voters, and 0:13:36.480 --> 0:13:40.439 more importantly, is actually changing as we already discussed the 0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:42.920 energy security mix up, but also the way we think 0:13:42.920 --> 0:13:45.679 about society, and and and then the final note here, 0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:47.560 which I think is important one. I don't know where 0:13:47.559 --> 0:13:51.800 you're realized there's but of all assets which is traded 0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:55.120 in the world are intangibles. So only ten percent after 0:13:55.200 --> 0:13:58.280 world's ass are tangibles. And I think you and I 0:13:58.360 --> 0:14:02.439 both know that energy SIT's intendable, uh you electricity, grid networks, 0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:06.640 it's intangibles. Your logistics, your last mild delivery is intangible. 0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:10.000 So what the world needs it's more tangible assets. More 0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:13.960 tangible assets translating into more real economy assets. And as 0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:16.960 we grow that, we will also massively grow with the productivity. 0:14:17.040 --> 0:14:20.080 So that's my back of an envelope. Two minutes macro 0:14:20.120 --> 0:14:22.720 talk and protitivity. Okay, I'm going to make a quick 0:14:22.760 --> 0:14:24.920 challenge here on the vaccine that half the people who 0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:28.920 listen to this will make which is that Yeah, I know, 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:32.680 I know, it's trying to develop another vaccines. It's just 0:14:32.760 --> 0:14:37.200 that we cancel the regulatary environment around most vaccines. If 0:14:37.200 --> 0:14:39.360 you cut the regular environment in place, surely would have 0:14:39.400 --> 0:14:41.600 taken just as long as any old vaccine. And then 0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:44.560 at I don't think the vaccine works right, And then 0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:48.560 you have the full audience. But we'll leave that one, then, 0:14:48.680 --> 0:14:51.400 shall we um? Let me ask you one more question 0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:54.600 on on on last year's one of the ones I 0:14:54.680 --> 0:14:57.920 like to find interesting with new hypersonic tech, drive space 0:14:58.040 --> 0:15:00.920 race and the new Cold war. And you haven't mentioned 0:15:00.920 --> 0:15:03.360 that as being one of the ones that that you 0:15:03.400 --> 0:15:06.000 would give yourself a B plus it. But there is 0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:08.920 definitely a Cold war at least going on in space, 0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:12.240 isn't that. And the hypersonic webon was activated by the 0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:14.840 Russians and and and everybody else. So yeah, that is 0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:17.440 maybe not a B, but then a a C C 0:15:17.640 --> 0:15:21.520 plus at least, but close to a B. Yeah. And 0:15:21.560 --> 0:15:23.360 I listened to a talk the other day that told 0:15:23.400 --> 0:15:26.240 me that we didn't really really have to worry about 0:15:26.360 --> 0:15:29.640 energy anymore because the cost of energy is effectively going 0:15:29.680 --> 0:15:33.240 to zero because we will be harvesting solar energy in space. 0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:36.600 So that sounded nice. That's another optimistic mode. This is 0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:39.840 turning into be a very It almost become one of 0:15:39.880 --> 0:15:43.960 these coach sessions where people get uplifted and see the 0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:47.080 future better. Shall we take care of that by moving 0:15:47.080 --> 0:15:51.960 onto next year's predictions. Yeah, we can kill that quite quickly, 0:15:54.280 --> 0:15:58.160 next year's outrageous predictions. Um, and you title the whole 0:15:58.200 --> 0:16:02.760 thing the war anomy. So anyone who's feeling optimistic or 0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:04.760 kind of woman fuzzy from what we've been talking about 0:16:04.800 --> 0:16:07.520 so fast stop right now. The whole thing is called 0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:10.040 the war economy. We just took through a little bit 0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:13.400 what you mean by that. Yes, so, as we have 0:16:13.480 --> 0:16:16.320 found that creating our rag of prediction has become more 0:16:16.400 --> 0:16:19.480 difficult because competing with the real world is very difficult, 0:16:19.920 --> 0:16:22.840 we sort of try to embed a red threat through 0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:27.080 the the different years version of the outrage prediction. This 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:31.160 one comes with the side title of being the war economy. 0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:33.080 And what we mean by the war economy is that 0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:36.080 if you think about what is going on politically, this 0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:40.640 serves to the activation of the bigger public hand which 0:16:40.720 --> 0:16:44.080 we got used to undercovered and which certainly politician likes 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:49.640 to continue the backloading of actionable budget cards as you 0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:53.920 see in the UK budget. The constant waiting for better times, 0:16:53.920 --> 0:16:56.920 are constantly waiting for inflation to come down is very 0:16:57.000 --> 0:16:59.600 much what you see during war periods all the way 0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:03.640 back to you know, three before christ there's been limitation 0:17:03.680 --> 0:17:09.000 on commodities, that's been price caps, that's been sourcing basically 0:17:09.040 --> 0:17:13.520 the government or the military dictating which resources, which energy groups, 0:17:13.560 --> 0:17:17.800 which people in society are more important to savee God, 0:17:17.880 --> 0:17:22.200 the they are uh the upkeep of both the constitutional 0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:25.400 but also the border. So we think it's probably much 0:17:25.440 --> 0:17:27.920 easier to analyze what's going on in the world from 0:17:27.920 --> 0:17:30.239 from sort of a war economy. And we are not 0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:32.800 saying the world is at World War three or anything. 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:35.320 We're saying if you think about it on the as 0:17:35.440 --> 0:17:38.439 you you indicate it yourself. If we talk about the 0:17:38.480 --> 0:17:40.600 war in space, if we talk about the war going 0:17:40.640 --> 0:17:43.880 on daily in terms of the Internet and and and 0:17:43.880 --> 0:17:46.119 and the darknet for sure, and what goes on in 0:17:46.160 --> 0:17:48.080 those activities. I don't think I really want to know 0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:49.960 what's going on, but I'm pretty sure it's not a 0:17:50.040 --> 0:17:54.680 nice place. And I think the deglobalization has been accelerated. 0:17:55.040 --> 0:17:58.359 What we've seen is the two biggest political initiatives in 0:17:58.400 --> 0:18:01.000 the world right now is on the US side, the 0:18:01.119 --> 0:18:05.359 Chips Act, which is basically about re shoring technology and 0:18:05.560 --> 0:18:08.760 work and and and security back to the US, and 0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:11.240 in terms of China is the dual circlar The dual 0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:15.240 circle is really about reducing the export dependency going to 0:18:15.480 --> 0:18:19.159 the domestic economy. And both of these of course placed 0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:23.120 to not only the deglobalization but also the the increase 0:18:23.200 --> 0:18:25.480 in alliance of being created. The new alliance in the 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:28.919 world is between China and Russia, energy coming from Russia 0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:32.120 and technology going the other way out. So so all 0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:38.200 of these are bilateral cheating military priorities over what we 0:18:38.280 --> 0:18:43.560 talked about before, productivity equality and certainly also the green 0:18:43.600 --> 0:18:46.960 agenda has been lost a little bit in this race. Okay, 0:18:47.040 --> 0:18:49.520 So here we are and what is obviously well to 0:18:49.640 --> 0:18:51.760 you anyway, I think to be as well not going 0:18:51.800 --> 0:18:55.600 to be a disinflation re environment for some time. Um, 0:18:56.080 --> 0:18:59.720 you haven't gotten here a specific outrageous prediction on inflation, 0:19:00.359 --> 0:19:04.320 but lots of the of the predictions kind of hang 0:19:04.400 --> 0:19:08.800 around that area. So one is that gold rockets to 0:19:09.119 --> 0:19:12.680 three thousand dollars. The central banks fail on on inflation mandate, 0:19:12.720 --> 0:19:15.720 and we've we've slightly talked about why the central banks 0:19:15.720 --> 0:19:18.000 will fail on their inflation mandate because their target is 0:19:18.080 --> 0:19:21.440 very random in their midles are rubbish. Um, but is 0:19:21.480 --> 0:19:23.840 there a reason why that will send gold to three 0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:26.480 thousand dollars For people who don't believe in golds and 0:19:26.520 --> 0:19:29.280 inflation heads, of which there there are many, well, then 0:19:29.320 --> 0:19:33.000 we just let them read history, right. It's one of 0:19:33.040 --> 0:19:36.600 the I would argue if you're an asset manager, and 0:19:36.640 --> 0:19:38.760 I presume this show talks to a lot of people 0:19:38.880 --> 0:19:41.119 either manage their own many or managed on behalf and 0:19:41.160 --> 0:19:43.439 other people. I think if you're on a pot for 0:19:43.480 --> 0:19:46.199 you today in sterling or euro dollars, you also need 0:19:46.280 --> 0:19:48.560 to run it in gold because that is your true 0:19:48.600 --> 0:19:52.000 purchasing power. So it's really not about inflation, is more 0:19:52.040 --> 0:19:56.080 about your maintaining your purchasing power. But what will catapult 0:19:56.960 --> 0:19:58.920 gold to a higher level, of course, is all of 0:19:58.960 --> 0:20:01.919 the failings that we talked about, but maturely that the 0:20:01.960 --> 0:20:05.679 world continues as I indicated early on, to believe that 0:20:05.720 --> 0:20:07.560 inflation is going back to two to two and a 0:20:07.600 --> 0:20:10.440 half percent, and that is as I said, to five 0:20:10.560 --> 0:20:13.680 ten and thirty year forward dictated by the market says 0:20:13.720 --> 0:20:16.320 we are going to be a two thirty five. I 0:20:16.359 --> 0:20:19.520 find that naive in a deglobalization world where we want 0:20:19.520 --> 0:20:23.199 to prior to strategy, we want to prioritize military, we 0:20:23.240 --> 0:20:27.120 want to prioritize keeping security at home, and we don't 0:20:27.280 --> 0:20:30.639 want to do reshoring. I don't necessarily understand why I 0:20:30.720 --> 0:20:33.720 know these things should be deflationary at a bare minimum, 0:20:33.720 --> 0:20:35.680 I don't even understand why that could get us back 0:20:35.680 --> 0:20:38.280 to where we were before. That would mean that that 0:20:38.400 --> 0:20:41.240 will be you know, physical impulse when things closed down, 0:20:41.240 --> 0:20:43.760 it will mean that that will not be printing the money. 0:20:43.800 --> 0:20:46.760 So I think the market has a very naive attitude 0:20:46.760 --> 0:20:50.520 to the forward looking indicators. And I think this year, 0:20:50.560 --> 0:20:52.880 at least for me as a trader and as a 0:20:52.880 --> 0:20:56.440 as a chief, Investments has told me that the market 0:20:56.480 --> 0:21:00.240 has no transparency in terms of predicting inflation at all. 0:21:00.440 --> 0:21:02.440 It didn't work for them two years ago, it didn't 0:21:02.440 --> 0:21:04.359 work one year ago, and it's not working now. So 0:21:04.440 --> 0:21:07.719 for me, it is more about you know, sensing and 0:21:07.760 --> 0:21:10.480 talking to companies see what is reported in terms of 0:21:10.800 --> 0:21:13.600 marching squeeze, and that process is much slower than the 0:21:13.680 --> 0:21:16.960 market likes. But what all of our goal will be 0:21:17.080 --> 0:21:20.880 the refuge in the world where we also have competing currencies. 0:21:21.600 --> 0:21:23.199 I'm sure we're going to come to a minute. But 0:21:23.320 --> 0:21:25.600 one of the more outrageous things we're making claims on 0:21:25.680 --> 0:21:27.399 this year is, of course that's going to be an 0:21:27.400 --> 0:21:30.359 alternative to the to the mighty dollar, and that the 0:21:30.359 --> 0:21:32.959 basement that will happen to the dollar. Yeah, we'll come 0:21:33.000 --> 0:21:34.520 back to that in a tick. And one of the 0:21:34.520 --> 0:21:36.440