WEBVTT - Tesla’s Annual EV Sales Drop for First Time in Over a Decade

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Bloomberg Business Week,

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<v Speaker 1>Insight from the reporters and editors that bring you America's

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<v Speaker 1>most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news.

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<v Speaker 1>The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim

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<v Speaker 1>Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>I want to bring in Bloomberg News Audo reporter Keith

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<v Speaker 2>Naughton for more on this and then some other Tesla

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<v Speaker 2>news that we learned a little earlier today that Tesla's

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<v Speaker 2>annual vehicle sales dropped for the first time in more

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<v Speaker 2>than a decade, to spite a year and push that

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<v Speaker 2>sent deliveries to a record in the fourth quarter. Tesla

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<v Speaker 2>shares selling off as a result. We're going to get

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<v Speaker 2>to that in just a minute, Keith, but I do

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<v Speaker 2>want to start with the news just moments ago that

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<v Speaker 2>we learned from officials in Las Vegas that members of

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<v Speaker 2>Tesla's staff are on their way to Las Vegas to

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<v Speaker 2>assist law enforcement agents with finding information from this cyber

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<v Speaker 2>truck that yesterday had an explosive device or explosive devices

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<v Speaker 2>in it. I'm curious what types of information they can

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<v Speaker 2>get from what happens inside of Tesla what happens outside

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<v Speaker 2>of Tesla, Because for people who aren't familiar with these vehicles,

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<v Speaker 2>these have quite a few cameras recording at all times

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<v Speaker 2>on the outside well for sure.

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<v Speaker 3>So you know, modern vehicles, particularly Tesla's, are highly sophisticated.

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<v Speaker 3>They have a lot of devices that record what goes

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<v Speaker 3>on in the car, Cameras being one of them. And

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<v Speaker 3>so while they're not for the level of a black

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<v Speaker 3>box on a jet or something like that, it can

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<v Speaker 3>provide a lot of important information if you're doing an

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<v Speaker 3>investigation like this. You know, we have two incidents yesterday,

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<v Speaker 3>the one in Vegas with the Tesla cybertruck and then

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<v Speaker 3>the attack in New Orleans on Bourbon Street, and that

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<v Speaker 3>was with a Ford F one fifty lightning.

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<v Speaker 4>I've been on the phone with Ford this morning, and they.

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<v Speaker 3>Are also cooperating with authorities to provide them any information.

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<v Speaker 3>And they can glean from that F one fifty lightning.

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<v Speaker 3>So the weight modern cars, particularly electric vehicles, so these

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<v Speaker 3>are both electric vehicles, both rented from turo B any way,

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<v Speaker 3>and so they can provide all sorts of interesting and

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<v Speaker 3>helpful data as this investigation goes on.

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<v Speaker 5>I got to ask you, Keith.

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<v Speaker 6>Okay, and again forgive us folks, because we're trying to

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<v Speaker 6>be very careful here and really just talk about facts

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<v Speaker 6>and stuff.

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<v Speaker 5>But is it interesting that both were electric vehicles?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I mean one way to look at that, and

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<v Speaker 3>again I don't want to go too far into the

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<v Speaker 3>speculation exactly, but electric vehicles, in the case of the

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<v Speaker 3>New Orleans attack, they are powered by a battery that

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<v Speaker 3>is very heavy.

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<v Speaker 4>That adds thousands of pounds of weight to the vehicle.

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<v Speaker 3>So you know, if you're looking to maximize destructive properties,

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<v Speaker 3>more weight will do that.

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<v Speaker 2>Keith, what do you make of the Turo connection here?

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<v Speaker 2>I think a lot of folks might be familiar with

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<v Speaker 2>traditional places to rent a vehicle, but are now hearing

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<v Speaker 2>about Tururo for the first.

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<v Speaker 3>Time, right and Turo, you know, it can be a

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<v Speaker 3>little bit like automotive Airbnb. Sometimes it's individuals who are

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<v Speaker 3>renting out their exotic cars.

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<v Speaker 4>Turrow has been known for exotics and for electric vehicles.

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<v Speaker 3>We don't know, or I don't know the details of

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<v Speaker 3>how these two were rented and where they come from.

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<v Speaker 3>I know that in the case of Forward from my

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<v Speaker 3>conversations with them, they're trying to help with that, but

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<v Speaker 3>it is it is a rental traditionally that has rented

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<v Speaker 3>more exotic cars, different cars, electric vehicles, not your standard,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, Hurtznatus.

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<v Speaker 6>All right, we're going to move along, and obviously we're

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<v Speaker 6>going to continue to monitor any headlines that might come

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<v Speaker 6>out on either situation in New Orleans or in Vegas.

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<v Speaker 5>But Keith, we.

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<v Speaker 6>Initially thought we were going to talk to you about

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<v Speaker 6>Tesla's sales numbers, which we'd given everybody a heads up

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<v Speaker 6>on New Year's Eve that we expected there to be

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<v Speaker 6>some disappointment. I am curious, though Tesla's shares are selling off,

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<v Speaker 6>our investor's right to be disappointed.

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<v Speaker 5>Is it a big deal for Tesla?

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<v Speaker 3>It is a big deal because it's the first decline

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<v Speaker 3>in annual sales in more than a decade. And to

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<v Speaker 3>put it in context, when that last drop happened between

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<v Speaker 3>two thousand and ten and twenty eleven, Tesla was selling

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<v Speaker 3>about twelve hundred vehicles a year back then. It's now

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<v Speaker 3>selling close to two million, So it's a completely different situation.

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<v Speaker 3>And you know, everyone, once in a while, the market

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<v Speaker 3>is reminded that, yes, Tesla is a car company, and

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<v Speaker 3>if they don't sell enough cars, they don't make enough money.

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<v Speaker 3>The stock has been on a tear, particularly since the election,

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<v Speaker 3>because everyone was excited about the political influence.

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<v Speaker 4>That Elon Musk would have.

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<v Speaker 3>It's been also rising since Elon Musk has focused so

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<v Speaker 3>much more on AI and the robotaxi they're developing. But

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<v Speaker 3>when it comes down to it, Tesla needs to sell

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<v Speaker 3>electric vehicles and they're having a harder time doing that.

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<v Speaker 2>Is Tesla having the same issues that other EV companies

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<v Speaker 2>are having competition from China less of an interest in

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<v Speaker 2>evs and more of an interest in hybrids, high ticket

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<v Speaker 2>prices that many Americans and people around the world can't

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<v Speaker 2>necessarily afford, especially when you compare it with those Chinese

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<v Speaker 2>evs and then cars from with the traditional internal combustion engines.

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<v Speaker 2>Is that what the issue is?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, absolutely, Tesla is facing those same headwinds as the

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<v Speaker 3>rest of the industry. But Tesla has an additional headwind

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<v Speaker 3>and that is the rest of the industry. You know,

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<v Speaker 3>they basically had the EV market to themselves until a

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<v Speaker 3>few years ago, and particularly in this past year, we

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<v Speaker 3>now have I think seventy five evs on the US market,

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<v Speaker 3>So you have GM coming finally with their evs and

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<v Speaker 3>their lower price, where Tesla doesn't have much product to

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<v Speaker 3>play with.

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<v Speaker 4>But Tesla really needs to get its volumes back up.

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<v Speaker 3>Is this model y refresh known as Juniper that's coming

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<v Speaker 3>next year, that's supposed to be in the mid thirty

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<v Speaker 3>thousand range. Right now, Tesla's average prices are above forty thousand,

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<v Speaker 3>and they've come down a lot because Tesla's resorted to

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<v Speaker 3>the old fashioned, you know, marketing incentives that normal carmakers do,

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<v Speaker 3>like zero percent financing and free charging.

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<v Speaker 4>So they've they've done.

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<v Speaker 3>That and their prices have come down a bit, but

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<v Speaker 3>they're still a little high for mainstream buyers.

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, is Tesla getting to the point, you know,

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<v Speaker 6>we often talk about a tech company that's, you know,

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<v Speaker 6>an upstart, you know, on a growth trajectory, kind of

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<v Speaker 6>owns its market and then it matures a little bit.

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<v Speaker 6>Is that kind of what's happening, Keith? I mean, can

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<v Speaker 6>we kind of put that label on Tesla? Are not necessarily.

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<v Speaker 3>Definitely from its you know, traditional EV selling business.

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<v Speaker 4>It has matured at a very time, at the very

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<v Speaker 4>time that.

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<v Speaker 3>As we said, the EV market is slowing, so you know,

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<v Speaker 3>it's just a harder sell with evs right now. The

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<v Speaker 3>growth rate of EV's last year was in the mid

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<v Speaker 3>seven percent.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, the year before was forty seven percent.

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<v Speaker 3>So we're in a very cooling market for pure electric

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<v Speaker 3>vehicles and that's all Tesla sells. And test Tha's lineup

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<v Speaker 3>is really aging, so they desperately need new and refreshed

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<v Speaker 3>product to reinvigorate their sales.

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<v Speaker 6>All right, going to leave it on that note. Keith Noughton,

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<v Speaker 6>thank you so much. Auto reporter O at Bloomberg News

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<v Speaker 6>joining us from Detroit.

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<v Speaker 7>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

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<v Speaker 7>live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen

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<v Speaker 7>on Applecarplay and the Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,

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<v Speaker 6>All right, let's get out to someone who's got to

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<v Speaker 6>make investment bets. And he recently wrote about the parallel

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<v Speaker 6>between the dot com bubble and today's AI driven euphoria.

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<v Speaker 6>He says, we are in the late stages of a

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<v Speaker 6>major financial euphoria episode. We welcome back Bill Smeed, cio

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<v Speaker 6>over at Smeed Capital Management. They've got approximately seven and

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<v Speaker 6>a half billion dollars in assets under management. Bill, joining

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<v Speaker 6>us on this Thursday. It is Thursday, it's a new year.

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<v Speaker 6>Joining us from Phoenix, Arizona. Bill, Good to have you

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<v Speaker 6>back with us. Happy new Year.

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<v Speaker 5>I don't know.

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<v Speaker 6>Tell us about this parallel between the dot com bubble

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<v Speaker 6>and the AI. We've talked this actually a fair amount

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<v Speaker 6>here at Bloomberg. Does it burst then at some point?

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<v Speaker 6>And how do you tell or any indication of when

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<v Speaker 6>that happens.

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<v Speaker 8>Well, I listened to your prior segment. This won't be

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<v Speaker 8>a black swan, that this will be an in your

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<v Speaker 8>face duck. In other words, it is absolutely inevitable. Here's

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<v Speaker 8>what I love about the current euphoria. All the other

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<v Speaker 8>euphorias front loaded the stock prices of the beneficiaries of.

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<v Speaker 9>The new legitimate business development.

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<v Speaker 8>So in twenty nine it was front loading the excitement

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<v Speaker 8>about radio and RCA was the Nvidia, And.

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<v Speaker 4>Then in sixty nine to seventy it was landing on the.

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<v Speaker 8>Moon in the semiconductor and ultimately peaked out with a

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<v Speaker 8>nifty to fifty, And then in ninety nine it was

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<v Speaker 8>the Internet was going.

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<v Speaker 6>To change our life.

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<v Speaker 10>Did they succeed?

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<v Speaker 9>Did all those legitimate developments play out and.

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<v Speaker 8>Get used dramatically more and completely changed the way Americans operated.

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<v Speaker 8>The answer is yes. And did people get crushed in

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<v Speaker 8>the stock market in all prior cases?

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<v Speaker 9>And the answer is yes. So if you own the

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<v Speaker 9>momentum trades of.

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<v Speaker 8>The last three or four years, whether it be a

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<v Speaker 8>year from now or a month from now or three

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<v Speaker 8>weeks ago, the pain that people are going to get

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<v Speaker 8>exhibited on them versus the trade off of an additional

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<v Speaker 8>year of glorious success like the last two years will

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<v Speaker 8>be It's a bad risk reward relationship. And it's right

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<v Speaker 8>in front of everyone's face. It's not a black swan,

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<v Speaker 8>it's not hidden anywhere. And your friend in London made

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<v Speaker 8>the right call. We've got fifteen different indicators, not just

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<v Speaker 8>the option trading. Virtually every measurement tool for measuring historical

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<v Speaker 8>stock market valuation is at the absolute ninety eight percentile

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<v Speaker 8>or higher right now?

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<v Speaker 4>All right?

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<v Speaker 6>So then if we agree with you, then what happens

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<v Speaker 6>like how much of a market decline, how much has

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<v Speaker 6>to be kind of taken off? What kind of froth

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<v Speaker 6>needs to be taken off in your view to make

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<v Speaker 6>it more normalized?

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<v Speaker 8>Yeah, I think you go to seventy three seventy four,

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<v Speaker 8>And the problem is seventy three seventy four was a

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<v Speaker 8>fifty percent decline in the S and P over two years,

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<v Speaker 8>and then didn't come out of it until nineteen eighty two. Right,

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<v Speaker 8>the Dow used to be the primary benchmark at that time,

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<v Speaker 8>and the Dow kept peeking out at one thousand, including

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<v Speaker 8>in nineteen seventy two, and then we started from seven

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<v Speaker 8>to seventy five on the Dow at the bottom in

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<v Speaker 8>August of nineteen eighty two.

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<v Speaker 4>But Bill had been we.

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<v Speaker 5>Only have a couple of minutes.

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<v Speaker 6>But I want to ask you, though, it's safe to

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<v Speaker 6>say that today's marketplace maybe not the same as seventy

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<v Speaker 6>or what was going on in the seventies. And maybe

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<v Speaker 6>I just think about the frequency with how information kind

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<v Speaker 6>of flies through the market and social media and the velocity,

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<v Speaker 6>and when things don't look right, they kind of get

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<v Speaker 6>taken down pretty quickly.

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<v Speaker 8>Yeah, it's different this time, I think, is what you're asking.

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<v Speaker 10>It is different.

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<v Speaker 8>It's always different this time, it's always different.

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<v Speaker 9>But the similarities is what kill you.

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<v Speaker 8>So I happen to read a piece this last week

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<v Speaker 8>from twenty fourteen from Warren Buffett, and this is twenty fourteen,

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<v Speaker 8>he said, you know, the market spends most of its

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<v Speaker 8>time reasonably priced, and he calls that reasonableness. But in

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<v Speaker 8>twenty fourteen he said in his career five times it

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<v Speaker 8>lost its reasonableness, and that was in twenty fourteen.

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<v Speaker 10>So I think when his partner Charlie Munger said this

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<v Speaker 10>is the big financially forty episode of his career because

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<v Speaker 10>of the totality of a few years ago, I think

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<v Speaker 10>Buffett is demonstrating through raising cash that he thinks this

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<v Speaker 10>market lacks reasonableness.

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<v Speaker 2>So where the just we have thirty seconds left, where

0:12:16.520 --> 0:12:18.079
<v Speaker 2>the opportunities for this year.

0:12:19.080 --> 0:12:24.080
<v Speaker 8>The opportunities are spelled E N E RGY.

0:12:24.120 --> 0:12:25.160
<v Speaker 2>We've heard that from you before.

0:12:25.320 --> 0:12:29.640
<v Speaker 8>Electricity forty percent of electricity is made with natural gas.

0:12:29.960 --> 0:12:32.760
<v Speaker 8>That I'm not a commodity trader, but that's what I'd

0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:34.560
<v Speaker 8>be all over on oil and gas stocks.

0:12:34.920 --> 0:12:37.280
<v Speaker 9>The price of oil is not going to go down.

0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:41.240
<v Speaker 9>By the way, pertaining to your prior conversation, people that

0:12:41.320 --> 0:12:44.040
<v Speaker 9>live in China their body temperatures ninety eight point six.

0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:46.800
<v Speaker 9>It's the oldest civilization in the world, and they're very

0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:49.880
<v Speaker 9>intelligent people. The chance of them pulling themselves out of

0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:53.600
<v Speaker 9>This is one hundred percent and American exceptionalism is way

0:12:53.640 --> 0:12:56.800
<v Speaker 9>overcooked because we're just ninety eight point six and that's

0:12:56.840 --> 0:12:57.880
<v Speaker 9>all wherever going to be.

0:12:58.440 --> 0:13:00.000
<v Speaker 5>All right, Gonna have to leave it on that now.

0:13:00.160 --> 0:13:00.800
<v Speaker 5>Thank you so much.

0:13:00.840 --> 0:13:02.240
<v Speaker 6>We know we had a lot of breaking news and

0:13:02.280 --> 0:13:04.160
<v Speaker 6>we had to jump around a little bit, but Bill Smead,

0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:07.160
<v Speaker 6>we really appreciate getting some time with you. Bill Smead,

0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:10.120
<v Speaker 6>Chief Investment Officer. It's Meet Capital Management, coming to us

0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:11.600
<v Speaker 6>from Phoenix, Arizona.

0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:15.960
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:19.000
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from two to five ese during Listen

0:13:19.080 --> 0:13:22.600
<v Speaker 1>on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,

0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:25.160
<v Speaker 1>or watch us live on YouTube.

0:13:26.040 --> 0:13:29.080
<v Speaker 2>This is not going to surprise anyone who has listened

0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:31.480
<v Speaker 2>to or watched our show in the past because we

0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:33.920
<v Speaker 2>talk about this a lot. But women founded startups get

0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:36.240
<v Speaker 2>only a fraction of the VC funding of male startups.

0:13:36.280 --> 0:13:38.680
<v Speaker 2>I mean we're talking single digits here. I mean depending

0:13:38.720 --> 0:13:41.400
<v Speaker 2>on by far so much, depending on which data you

0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:43.840
<v Speaker 2>look at via you know, Pitchbook or others, it's like

0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:47.319
<v Speaker 2>single digits. Yeah, but they made gains last year. Women

0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:50.199
<v Speaker 2>in non binary VC investors have gained a foothold in

0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:53.440
<v Speaker 2>the tech industry, five years faster than the advocacy group

0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:57.520
<v Speaker 2>all RAYS expected, but leaders say a national backlash diversity,

0:13:57.520 --> 0:14:00.960
<v Speaker 2>equality and inclusion initiatives threatens the progress that's been made.

0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:04.000
<v Speaker 2>So Carol, about eighteen percent of decision makers at USVC

0:14:04.160 --> 0:14:07.200
<v Speaker 2>firms are female. It's double from twenty eighteen when all

0:14:07.280 --> 0:14:09.040
<v Speaker 2>Rays was founded and set a goal of reaching that

0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:11.120
<v Speaker 2>number by twenty twenty eight that's according to the group's

0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:14.360
<v Speaker 2>in Your report that was published last year. So some progress,

0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:16.000
<v Speaker 2>some progress, some progress, some progress.

0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:18.440
<v Speaker 6>Let's see what Jesse Draper has to say about that.

0:14:18.480 --> 0:14:21.840
<v Speaker 6>She's founding partner of Halogen Ventures. The VC firm has

0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:24.680
<v Speaker 6>invested in more than seventy five female founded tech startups,

0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:28.760
<v Speaker 6>including baby List, Flex, everly Well, and more. She joins

0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:31.400
<v Speaker 6>us on this Thursday from Los Angeles. Jesse, good to

0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:34.920
<v Speaker 6>be talking again with you. It does feel like, first

0:14:35.000 --> 0:14:37.440
<v Speaker 6>of all, that there is a backlash on all things

0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:41.640
<v Speaker 6>DEI how is that potentially going to impact the VC world,

0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:46.080
<v Speaker 6>which already when it comes to female founded firms, I mean, man,

0:14:46.160 --> 0:14:48.680
<v Speaker 6>they have to struggle to find funding.

0:14:50.480 --> 0:14:52.640
<v Speaker 11>They do have to struggle to find funding. But you know,

0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:55.520
<v Speaker 11>the best companies will get funded. I think the most

0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:59.480
<v Speaker 11>important thing right now that we think about is just

0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:02.720
<v Speaker 11>getting capital into the hands of women, and that could

0:15:02.720 --> 0:15:05.840
<v Speaker 11>be a female and the founding team. Like at Hallajenventus

0:15:05.880 --> 0:15:07.560
<v Speaker 11>when we invest, there has to be a female in

0:15:07.600 --> 0:15:10.280
<v Speaker 11>the founding team. And we were still part of one

0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:13.480
<v Speaker 11>of the largest raises of twenty twenty four, which was

0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:18.000
<v Speaker 11>a one point nine billion dollar raise with a female

0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:21.080
<v Speaker 11>and the founding team. And it's called Metropolis. It's a

0:15:21.120 --> 0:15:25.960
<v Speaker 11>parking technology company. You know, there's no lack of incredible

0:15:26.000 --> 0:15:29.040
<v Speaker 11>deals being started by women. I think it's about looking

0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:32.400
<v Speaker 11>at the world a little differently, getting into new networks

0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:38.680
<v Speaker 11>and breaking out of like our traditional way of deploying capital. Also,

0:15:38.760 --> 0:15:40.920
<v Speaker 11>thank you for having me again, Carol and Tim.

0:15:40.960 --> 0:15:41.280
<v Speaker 10>It's good.

0:15:41.360 --> 0:15:44.280
<v Speaker 5>It's good to be You're welcome. You're welcome, you know, sire.

0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:46.560
<v Speaker 6>I was just looking at Tim and I'm just saying, listen.

0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:48.360
<v Speaker 6>Part of the reason it's fun to do a show

0:15:48.480 --> 0:15:51.120
<v Speaker 6>man woman whatever, like some diversity, Like we do look

0:15:51.160 --> 0:15:53.520
<v Speaker 6>at things differently, Tim and I do think about what's

0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:56.440
<v Speaker 6>being lost in the VC world by now looking at

0:15:56.600 --> 0:16:00.160
<v Speaker 6>female founded firms who look at the world differently, and

0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:01.080
<v Speaker 6>maybe what's needed.

0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:05.000
<v Speaker 2>Well, Jesse, talk a little bit about networks, because this

0:16:05.040 --> 0:16:08.080
<v Speaker 2>is something you absolutely understand being in the space and

0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:11.120
<v Speaker 2>essentially growing up in the space. What are networks when

0:16:11.120 --> 0:16:14.920
<v Speaker 2>it comes to venture capital? Pull the curtain back a little.

0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:19.920
<v Speaker 11>Bit, so I look at it as networks and tech ecosystems.

0:16:20.120 --> 0:16:22.480
<v Speaker 11>So when I think about networks, you know, I think

0:16:22.560 --> 0:16:27.240
<v Speaker 11>women lack those networks. Traditionally, men have one passed the

0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:30.120
<v Speaker 11>pocketbooks down from generation to generation, and we need to

0:16:30.200 --> 0:16:32.640
<v Speaker 11>like break the women in there. Right now is the

0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:35.680
<v Speaker 11>largest transference of generational wealth, and the majority of that

0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:37.800
<v Speaker 11>is actually going to be going to women. So we

0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:42.200
<v Speaker 11>need women investing and we need capital going to women,

0:16:42.280 --> 0:16:46.960
<v Speaker 11>which hopefully will inevitably happen. We are you know, I

0:16:46.960 --> 0:16:49.720
<v Speaker 11>think about networks, and you would start with, say Stanford,

0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:52.240
<v Speaker 11>where Silicon Valley is where I literally grew up. I've

0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:55.480
<v Speaker 11>lived in LA for twenty years, but you know, Stanford

0:16:55.520 --> 0:16:59.000
<v Speaker 11>started the first sort of technology ecosystem as we know it.

0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:04.000
<v Speaker 11>And these typically begin with a university, and so you

0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:07.320
<v Speaker 11>build that out because then great talent comes from the university,

0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:10.760
<v Speaker 11>great ideas come from the university, and ultimately great companies

0:17:11.160 --> 0:17:14.720
<v Speaker 11>spin out of that University. So, you know, you look

0:17:14.760 --> 0:17:18.520
<v Speaker 11>at the great tech ecosystems across the country. Those networks

0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:22.720
<v Speaker 11>are starting to broaden because we're now seeing many more

0:17:22.800 --> 0:17:26.560
<v Speaker 11>than just twelve technology cities across the country. We at

0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:29.399
<v Speaker 11>Halijn Ventures actually just announced that we were the first

0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:34.919
<v Speaker 11>out of state investment that Innovate Alabama made into a fund.

0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:38.760
<v Speaker 11>And so we've partnered with Innovate Alabama and we have

0:17:38.920 --> 0:17:41.960
<v Speaker 11>been going and researching and digging in and meeting with

0:17:42.320 --> 0:17:45.080
<v Speaker 11>hundreds of entrepreneurs in Alabama. And I have to say,

0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:48.200
<v Speaker 11>even I was surprised by I hadn't spent a ton

0:17:48.200 --> 0:17:50.840
<v Speaker 11>of time in Alabama. I don't know that a lot

0:17:50.840 --> 0:17:54.800
<v Speaker 11>of people in California have. I shouldn't generalize there, but

0:17:55.640 --> 0:18:00.000
<v Speaker 11>there are some amazing tech ecosystems there. There's world class university,

0:18:00.359 --> 0:18:04.400
<v Speaker 11>over fifty Fortune five hundred companies represented too are actually

0:18:04.440 --> 0:18:07.439
<v Speaker 11>based there, a lot of great aerospace ag tech, you know,

0:18:07.440 --> 0:18:12.800
<v Speaker 11>And I'm blown away by the incredible talent in Alabama.

0:18:12.880 --> 0:18:14.920
<v Speaker 11>And I think we just need to start looking at

0:18:15.119 --> 0:18:21.040
<v Speaker 11>new tech ecosystems, starting with new universities in different locations.

0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:23.000
<v Speaker 11>There's a lot going on in the South, and we're

0:18:23.000 --> 0:18:26.360
<v Speaker 11>really trying to capitalize on that. I think also as

0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:29.600
<v Speaker 11>a strategy, we're really thinking how do we get out

0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:33.159
<v Speaker 11>of those typical networks where people are only investing in

0:18:33.160 --> 0:18:35.600
<v Speaker 11>the Stanfords and the Harvards of the world, which you know,

0:18:35.760 --> 0:18:38.200
<v Speaker 11>we have Stanfords and Harvard's in our portfolio as well,

0:18:38.240 --> 0:18:41.720
<v Speaker 11>but I think it's important to create a well diversified portfolio.

0:18:42.480 --> 0:18:45.960
<v Speaker 11>And if you look at ecosystems around the world, even

0:18:45.960 --> 0:18:48.960
<v Speaker 11>in like Sub Saharan Africa, they often give capital to

0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:53.200
<v Speaker 11>the women to build the community and build the ecosystem

0:18:53.240 --> 0:18:54.960
<v Speaker 11>and build the wealth for families.

0:18:55.119 --> 0:18:58.800
<v Speaker 6>Right, go back to I'm just Mohammed yunus, right the problem, No,

0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:02.680
<v Speaker 6>you think about my micro you know, investing micro lending

0:19:02.720 --> 0:19:05.560
<v Speaker 6>in particular, it was to the woman because she would

0:19:05.560 --> 0:19:07.399
<v Speaker 6>put the money to work, and sometimes it was making

0:19:07.440 --> 0:19:10.040
<v Speaker 6>baskets or doing something that seems so basic, but it

0:19:10.080 --> 0:19:13.280
<v Speaker 6>created income for that family, and she paid back the

0:19:13.359 --> 0:19:16.439
<v Speaker 6>loan and it created a better life for that family.

0:19:16.760 --> 0:19:18.359
<v Speaker 6>I want to go back though, to what you're saying

0:19:18.400 --> 0:19:21.600
<v Speaker 6>about working with Alabama and some other universities. It reminds

0:19:21.640 --> 0:19:24.479
<v Speaker 6>me of Steve Case, you know, the AOL co founder,

0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:30.159
<v Speaker 6>And yeah, exactly, like yeah, and the future of technology

0:19:30.160 --> 0:19:32.679
<v Speaker 6>being outside Silicon Valley. Talk to us a little bit

0:19:32.720 --> 0:19:35.600
<v Speaker 6>about your portfolio and what you're you know, in a

0:19:35.640 --> 0:19:38.200
<v Speaker 6>world where we spend so much time talking about artificial

0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:41.920
<v Speaker 6>intelligence and generative AI and super high tech things going

0:19:41.960 --> 0:19:45.399
<v Speaker 6>on and autonomous driving and robots, Like, what is it

0:19:45.480 --> 0:19:48.600
<v Speaker 6>that you know where you are putting your VC money

0:19:48.720 --> 0:19:49.840
<v Speaker 6>at this point?

0:19:50.560 --> 0:19:51.800
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, thank you for asking that.

0:19:52.280 --> 0:19:53.720
<v Speaker 5>You know, So we are.

0:19:53.760 --> 0:19:56.800
<v Speaker 11>We have over seventy five companies now and five of

0:19:56.800 --> 0:19:59.480
<v Speaker 11>those are current unicorns. We're still young in the space,

0:19:59.520 --> 0:20:02.840
<v Speaker 11>but we're doing fantastic. I'm really proud of our portfolio

0:20:03.600 --> 0:20:08.119
<v Speaker 11>and we're excited about investing in Alabama because Alabama is

0:20:08.200 --> 0:20:13.080
<v Speaker 11>actually unfortunately listed as fiftieth in quite a few things,

0:20:14.200 --> 0:20:19.679
<v Speaker 11>education among them, but most pertinent too Halogen. It is

0:20:19.800 --> 0:20:24.880
<v Speaker 11>ranked fiftieth for female founders, and so we really wanted

0:20:24.880 --> 0:20:28.680
<v Speaker 11>to make change there and innovate. Alabama was excited about

0:20:28.720 --> 0:20:31.760
<v Speaker 11>our thesis. Our current thesis is around future of family,

0:20:32.000 --> 0:20:34.119
<v Speaker 11>how do you support the family at work, at home,

0:20:34.280 --> 0:20:37.320
<v Speaker 11>the physical health of the family, and the financial health

0:20:37.320 --> 0:20:39.960
<v Speaker 11>of the family. And the reason we invested in that

0:20:40.080 --> 0:20:42.880
<v Speaker 11>is it's actually a research based thesis that we created

0:20:42.920 --> 0:20:46.000
<v Speaker 11>because we looked at our past two portfolios and realized

0:20:46.000 --> 0:20:48.720
<v Speaker 11>about a dozen of our companies were in the childcare

0:20:48.840 --> 0:20:51.480
<v Speaker 11>and future of family space, which is a seven point

0:20:51.520 --> 0:20:56.040
<v Speaker 11>five trillion dollar opportunity. And these are companies like Binti

0:20:56.200 --> 0:20:59.800
<v Speaker 11>Solving Adoption now in four hundred social services agencies across

0:20:59.840 --> 0:21:05.120
<v Speaker 11>the country upwards, which has sixty six thousand in home

0:21:05.200 --> 0:21:08.120
<v Speaker 11>vetted childcare locations for the zero to six year old.

0:21:08.160 --> 0:21:13.000
<v Speaker 11>This is the most affordable option for childcare below the

0:21:13.040 --> 0:21:15.119
<v Speaker 11>age of six in the United States, which is a

0:21:15.160 --> 0:21:18.800
<v Speaker 11>place we've completely forgotten about children, and also the most

0:21:18.800 --> 0:21:22.359
<v Speaker 11>important to invest in because that's where neglect happens and

0:21:22.400 --> 0:21:25.199
<v Speaker 11>all these terrible things. So we're investing and this is

0:21:25.520 --> 0:21:29.159
<v Speaker 11>that's the largest actually network of child care facilities in

0:21:29.200 --> 0:21:31.640
<v Speaker 11>the country. We're also in baby List, a billion dollar

0:21:31.760 --> 0:21:34.199
<v Speaker 11>baby registry company that will likely go public in the

0:21:34.240 --> 0:21:35.040
<v Speaker 11>next couple of years.

0:21:35.760 --> 0:21:37.160
<v Speaker 5>I'm not sharing anything.

0:21:37.760 --> 0:21:41.919
<v Speaker 2>Jesse, I'm wondering how you disrupt the childcare industry. As

0:21:41.920 --> 0:21:44.080
<v Speaker 2>a parent of young kids, and we're constantly struggling to

0:21:44.119 --> 0:21:47.920
<v Speaker 2>find childcare. It's incredibly expensive here in New York City

0:21:47.960 --> 0:21:50.800
<v Speaker 2>and around the country now affordable, totally unffordable. How do

0:21:50.840 --> 0:21:53.080
<v Speaker 2>you how do you just that's the venture capital approach

0:21:53.119 --> 0:21:54.520
<v Speaker 2>to childcare. How do you solve this?

0:21:54.680 --> 0:21:56.400
<v Speaker 5>How do you make it cheaper and more accessible?

0:21:56.520 --> 0:21:57.600
<v Speaker 2>Right, this doesn't seem like.

0:21:57.600 --> 0:22:01.879
<v Speaker 11>Something that's scalable exactly, so you make much more Like

0:22:01.920 --> 0:22:04.760
<v Speaker 11>you're saying, we are very focused on affordable childcare, on

0:22:04.880 --> 0:22:08.440
<v Speaker 11>healthcare for families, on financial management tools, which was sort

0:22:08.480 --> 0:22:11.480
<v Speaker 11>of an interesting piece of our data that we found

0:22:11.520 --> 0:22:13.679
<v Speaker 11>that families were looking for, like how do we manage

0:22:13.680 --> 0:22:17.200
<v Speaker 11>our money? So we're investors in Sally Quachec's company, Elves,

0:22:17.320 --> 0:22:21.280
<v Speaker 11>the first financial management platform to take child care into account.

0:22:21.359 --> 0:22:25.760
<v Speaker 11>But Upwards, which I was mentioning, they're actually solving that

0:22:25.880 --> 0:22:30.200
<v Speaker 11>problem of unaffordable childcare because ninety nine percent of society

0:22:30.200 --> 0:22:33.359
<v Speaker 11>can't afford a you know, private preschool or preschool just

0:22:33.520 --> 0:22:38.480
<v Speaker 11>in general, and Upwards is finding these locations, vetting them

0:22:38.560 --> 0:22:41.480
<v Speaker 11>and now has sixty six thousand, many in Alabama, all

0:22:41.520 --> 0:22:46.280
<v Speaker 11>across the country, and they have corporate benefits programs, they

0:22:46.400 --> 0:22:49.520
<v Speaker 11>have they signed an a figure deal with the governments

0:22:49.560 --> 0:22:53.040
<v Speaker 11>to subsidize costs for those living below the poverty line.

0:22:53.720 --> 0:22:56.159
<v Speaker 11>And so we're really trying to solve those issues in

0:22:56.240 --> 0:22:58.920
<v Speaker 11>society that I think people have forgotten about you know,

0:22:59.520 --> 0:23:04.040
<v Speaker 11>we're in this company, Binti, And really it was like

0:23:04.320 --> 0:23:08.120
<v Speaker 11>people are still to day matching children with homes, both

0:23:08.160 --> 0:23:12.080
<v Speaker 11>foster and adoptive by hand. The founder was meeting with

0:23:12.160 --> 0:23:17.200
<v Speaker 11>these these families and then meeting with these social service

0:23:17.200 --> 0:23:20.439
<v Speaker 11>agents who'd have stacks of papers and say, here's my

0:23:20.520 --> 0:23:23.600
<v Speaker 11>family cases. You know, here's the kids looking for families,

0:23:23.640 --> 0:23:27.160
<v Speaker 11>and it's completely inefficient. So they created some great technology.

0:23:27.240 --> 0:23:30.480
<v Speaker 11>They now match the families, find the families, build the families,

0:23:30.520 --> 0:23:34.240
<v Speaker 11>and they're just listening to what these families need and

0:23:34.280 --> 0:23:37.879
<v Speaker 11>they're doing incredibly well. So there's a huge opportunity and

0:23:38.000 --> 0:23:40.919
<v Speaker 11>I know we're also making an impact, but you know,

0:23:41.040 --> 0:23:45.720
<v Speaker 11>I am looking to obviously capitalize on this opportunity while

0:23:45.800 --> 0:23:48.680
<v Speaker 11>making an impact. And I think that's what people think. Oh,

0:23:48.760 --> 0:23:52.160
<v Speaker 11>investing in women is charity. Investing in childcare. People were

0:23:52.160 --> 0:23:54.919
<v Speaker 11>telling me wasn't a big enough opportunity even though it

0:23:54.920 --> 0:23:59.560
<v Speaker 11>affects so much of society, right, And I you know,

0:23:59.640 --> 0:24:01.480
<v Speaker 11>I said, okay, well I'll take that as a little

0:24:01.520 --> 0:24:05.679
<v Speaker 11>challenge and we'll show you how massive this opportunity is.

0:24:05.720 --> 0:24:09.679
<v Speaker 11>And it's a seven point five trillion dollar opportunity.

0:24:09.160 --> 0:24:11.600
<v Speaker 6>Jesse, just to really recap. Just got to be quick though,

0:24:11.640 --> 0:24:16.320
<v Speaker 6>please twenty seconds, twenty five seconds. The incoming administration, new administration,

0:24:16.600 --> 0:24:18.880
<v Speaker 6>is that going to impact your world? Are you anticipating

0:24:18.920 --> 0:24:19.600
<v Speaker 6>that just quickly?

0:24:20.800 --> 0:24:23.920
<v Speaker 11>I think it is already impacting my world. You know,

0:24:24.320 --> 0:24:32.280
<v Speaker 11>they're doing away with a lot of DEI opportunities for companies.

0:24:32.280 --> 0:24:36.200
<v Speaker 11>I think I just really would encourage the business ecosystem,

0:24:36.280 --> 0:24:40.800
<v Speaker 11>technology ecosystem to invest your dollars, make sure that they

0:24:40.840 --> 0:24:45.199
<v Speaker 11>are supporting women and diversity in general at the company stages,

0:24:45.320 --> 0:24:46.840
<v Speaker 11>especially at the earliest stages.

0:24:47.640 --> 0:24:48.680
<v Speaker 5>It is affecting us.

0:24:48.680 --> 0:24:52.480
<v Speaker 11>So make sure we're breaking out of those traditional dude networks.

0:24:52.480 --> 0:24:53.720
<v Speaker 11>And I love dudes just.

0:24:53.640 --> 0:24:54.920
<v Speaker 5>Like everybody else.

0:24:54.920 --> 0:24:58.359
<v Speaker 11>Little boys that just break out of those networks. Make

0:24:58.359 --> 0:25:00.000
<v Speaker 11>sure you're pulling a woman in the boardroom.

0:25:00.040 --> 0:25:03.720
<v Speaker 6>I'm totally a good, totally gah singing listen, Happy New York.

0:25:03.720 --> 0:25:05.439
<v Speaker 6>Good to check in with you. Of course, that is

0:25:05.520 --> 0:25:07.560
<v Speaker 6>Jesse Draper of Halogen Ventures.

0:25:07.920 --> 0:25:11.120
<v Speaker 5>I'm Rob macle I'll bet you let me drive.

0:25:11.359 --> 0:25:13.960
<v Speaker 7>Oh no, no, no, no, this is not a twenty He's

0:25:14.040 --> 0:25:15.000
<v Speaker 7>going to jug.

0:25:15.840 --> 0:25:19.359
<v Speaker 5>Any please, I'll do the riding gravels. Let's wait I

0:25:19.480 --> 0:25:20.000
<v Speaker 5>want to drive.

0:25:20.040 --> 0:25:28.439
<v Speaker 7>It's a good question time. This is the drive to

0:25:28.520 --> 0:25:33.439
<v Speaker 7>the clothes now plunks for mefic well drin on Bloomberg Radio.

0:25:33.600 --> 0:25:35.680
<v Speaker 6>All right, TikTok, everybody, Just about eighteen minutes to go

0:25:35.760 --> 0:25:37.520
<v Speaker 6>until we wrap up the first training day of twenty

0:25:37.560 --> 0:25:38.080
<v Speaker 6>twenty five.

0:25:38.119 --> 0:25:39.760
<v Speaker 5>Definitely off our best levels of the session.

0:25:39.800 --> 0:25:42.119
<v Speaker 6>What felt like a little bit of maybe a rally

0:25:42.119 --> 0:25:44.879
<v Speaker 6>a different trade based on the last four days of

0:25:44.920 --> 0:25:48.639
<v Speaker 6>twenty twenty four has kind of run out of steam here, Tim.

0:25:48.440 --> 0:25:51.320
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it has taken a look at the major equity indices.

0:25:51.400 --> 0:25:53.560
<v Speaker 2>We did see hire to start the day. We're off

0:25:53.560 --> 0:25:56.120
<v Speaker 2>our worst levels of the session. Still done three tens

0:25:56.160 --> 0:25:57.800
<v Speaker 2>of one percent pretty much across the board.

0:25:57.840 --> 0:25:59.280
<v Speaker 6>All right, let's see what our drive to the closed

0:25:59.320 --> 0:26:00.560
<v Speaker 6>guest has to say back with us.

0:26:00.600 --> 0:26:01.280
<v Speaker 5>It's been a while.

0:26:01.400 --> 0:26:05.240
<v Speaker 6>Vince Kalano Chief markeut strigis over at Stuyvesant Capital Management,

0:26:05.280 --> 0:26:08.080
<v Speaker 6>joining us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio.

0:26:08.240 --> 0:26:09.399
<v Speaker 5>Happy New Year. How are you.

0:26:09.680 --> 0:26:11.760
<v Speaker 12>I'm well, I'm well. Happy to get to both of you.

0:26:11.920 --> 0:26:12.960
<v Speaker 12>Thank you, Yeah, thank you.

0:26:13.200 --> 0:26:15.000
<v Speaker 6>It's good to have you here. I mean we have

0:26:15.080 --> 0:26:18.480
<v Speaker 6>talked with you over the years. Different market cycles. How

0:26:18.480 --> 0:26:21.440
<v Speaker 6>are you thinking about twenty twenty five and what will

0:26:21.480 --> 0:26:24.360
<v Speaker 6>be really kind of the big catalysts of the year.

0:26:24.480 --> 0:26:26.600
<v Speaker 6>Is it, as we talked earlier with our own Sam

0:26:26.640 --> 0:26:30.080
<v Speaker 6>Potter and Shnelli Bossik, is it all about the upcoming

0:26:30.400 --> 0:26:33.160
<v Speaker 6>new Trump administration and what kind of policies we get.

0:26:33.280 --> 0:26:35.800
<v Speaker 12>Well, if you listen to Jason Furman, which I reached

0:26:35.840 --> 0:26:38.840
<v Speaker 12>out to, or Ian Brimmer, who I reached out to also,

0:26:39.280 --> 0:26:41.920
<v Speaker 12>they would say, yeah, it would be economics, the Trump

0:26:42.000 --> 0:26:45.520
<v Speaker 12>administration taris, what does it mean, what are the consequences,

0:26:45.560 --> 0:26:48.760
<v Speaker 12>et cetera. Now, if you, on the other hand, talk

0:26:48.880 --> 0:26:52.639
<v Speaker 12>to somewhat of that I call nostril Domis because he

0:26:52.720 --> 0:26:55.320
<v Speaker 12>tries to sniff out the future as opposed to the

0:26:55.359 --> 0:26:59.119
<v Speaker 12>Nostradamis and not being Sam Stowell, he will tell you

0:26:59.200 --> 0:27:03.560
<v Speaker 12>that right now today is not a particularly positive sign

0:27:03.680 --> 0:27:05.879
<v Speaker 12>from a market historical perspective.

0:27:05.920 --> 0:27:07.920
<v Speaker 2>Why is today not a positive sign?

0:27:08.080 --> 0:27:11.720
<v Speaker 12>Because when you make a lower low in January lower

0:27:11.760 --> 0:27:15.200
<v Speaker 12>than you did at the low point in December, then

0:27:15.880 --> 0:27:19.000
<v Speaker 12>many more times than not, the year ahead turns out

0:27:19.040 --> 0:27:20.000
<v Speaker 12>to be a negative year.

0:27:20.040 --> 0:27:22.480
<v Speaker 2>Are you speaking like a market technician or like a CFA.

0:27:23.320 --> 0:27:26.160
<v Speaker 12>No, No, not to c if a time.

0:27:26.240 --> 0:27:27.240
<v Speaker 2>Okay, I'm just wondering.

0:27:28.520 --> 0:27:31.320
<v Speaker 5>First day. It's only the first day of January. I'm sorry,

0:27:31.320 --> 0:27:32.560
<v Speaker 5>it's only the first day of January.

0:27:32.600 --> 0:27:35.280
<v Speaker 12>That's right. But if you go strictly by what he says,

0:27:35.560 --> 0:27:38.880
<v Speaker 12>historical information says that when you make a lower low

0:27:39.200 --> 0:27:41.119
<v Speaker 12>in the first quarter, and it just happens to be

0:27:41.240 --> 0:27:44.480
<v Speaker 12>that today's the first day of the first quarter, well

0:27:44.520 --> 0:27:47.960
<v Speaker 12>then you end up in a period where the probabilities are.

0:27:48.000 --> 0:27:49.479
<v Speaker 5>So it doesn't matter when it happens.

0:27:49.840 --> 0:27:52.120
<v Speaker 6>Remember, even if we get a rally in the next

0:27:52.119 --> 0:27:53.920
<v Speaker 6>two or three weeks, your point is that we made

0:27:53.920 --> 0:27:54.560
<v Speaker 6>this low today.

0:27:54.640 --> 0:27:56.920
<v Speaker 12>You made the lower low today, and the probabilities are

0:27:57.000 --> 0:27:59.359
<v Speaker 12>that you're going to have a down year for the year,

0:27:59.440 --> 0:28:01.560
<v Speaker 12>or certainly if you an up year, the year is

0:28:01.600 --> 0:28:05.880
<v Speaker 12>going to be modest. So that's the historical information. Now,

0:28:05.880 --> 0:28:09.680
<v Speaker 12>when you add to that certain other market technical issues

0:28:09.720 --> 0:28:13.400
<v Speaker 12>that you referenced him, then yeah, you've got some aspects

0:28:13.400 --> 0:28:16.000
<v Speaker 12>there that are problematic and concerning. And then when you

0:28:16.000 --> 0:28:19.440
<v Speaker 12>answered it the other historical aspect, which is the business

0:28:19.480 --> 0:28:22.080
<v Speaker 12>of two years up in a row of twenty plus

0:28:22.080 --> 0:28:25.639
<v Speaker 12>percent gains, you generally don't get a third year and

0:28:25.680 --> 0:28:27.440
<v Speaker 12>the only time that happened when you had the third

0:28:27.560 --> 0:28:30.359
<v Speaker 12>year was during I believe it was the Clinton administration

0:28:30.680 --> 0:28:33.480
<v Speaker 12>and was a presidential election year, which this is not.

0:28:34.640 --> 0:28:37.840
<v Speaker 2>So is the message be cautious this year? What's the

0:28:37.840 --> 0:28:38.480
<v Speaker 2>message that you.

0:28:38.440 --> 0:28:41.520
<v Speaker 12>Are I would say the thing to do in addition

0:28:41.640 --> 0:28:44.760
<v Speaker 12>to you know, know yourself and plans and make sure

0:28:44.880 --> 0:28:50.040
<v Speaker 12>risk tolerance et cetera are correct, is to have a

0:28:50.080 --> 0:28:52.280
<v Speaker 12>more cautious approach at the beginning of the year. Make

0:28:52.280 --> 0:28:54.560
<v Speaker 12>sure that you're investing on a long term basis for

0:28:54.640 --> 0:28:58.800
<v Speaker 12>whatever your parameters are within your risk parameters, et cetera. Okay,

0:28:59.120 --> 0:29:03.160
<v Speaker 12>but also be where were the fact that you're you're

0:29:03.160 --> 0:29:08.720
<v Speaker 12>not a salmon, you know, swimming upstream. So it can

0:29:08.800 --> 0:29:11.360
<v Speaker 12>be a bit of an issue this year, and you know,

0:29:11.480 --> 0:29:14.200
<v Speaker 12>I'd be looking to maybe rotate to different areas where

0:29:14.720 --> 0:29:16.200
<v Speaker 12>you might be a little bit more cautious.

0:29:16.240 --> 0:29:19.160
<v Speaker 5>So fundamental trade or historical trade.

0:29:19.000 --> 0:29:22.000
<v Speaker 12>Historical trade is part of it. Then you have also

0:29:22.200 --> 0:29:25.600
<v Speaker 12>the market technical aspect of it from a momentum point

0:29:25.640 --> 0:29:29.120
<v Speaker 12>of view, which is positive long term, negative near term

0:29:29.880 --> 0:29:32.760
<v Speaker 12>and the positive long term contained negative in a short

0:29:32.800 --> 0:29:36.200
<v Speaker 12>period of time. So you've got that weighing against the market.

0:29:36.520 --> 0:29:39.160
<v Speaker 12>So it's not one thing. It's not one factor, but

0:29:39.240 --> 0:29:42.040
<v Speaker 12>the historical element, first year of a president's term, et cetera,

0:29:42.080 --> 0:29:43.920
<v Speaker 12>all of those things. When you put that all into

0:29:43.960 --> 0:29:47.600
<v Speaker 12>the mix and a stretch market valuation that we have right,

0:29:48.400 --> 0:29:50.640
<v Speaker 12>you know, it's hard to make. It's hard to make

0:29:50.640 --> 0:29:52.360
<v Speaker 12>a really compelling bullish case seting.

0:29:52.400 --> 0:29:53.640
<v Speaker 6>One of the things we've been calling out in a

0:29:53.640 --> 0:29:55.920
<v Speaker 6>big way on this first trading day of twenty twenty

0:29:55.920 --> 0:29:57.920
<v Speaker 6>five is earnings coming up right a couple of weeks away,

0:29:57.920 --> 0:30:00.320
<v Speaker 6>and we get JP Morgan and then we'll be into

0:30:00.360 --> 0:30:04.000
<v Speaker 6>another earning season. If fundamentally those companies come out and

0:30:04.000 --> 0:30:06.760
<v Speaker 6>they do well top and bottom line, they're upbeat about

0:30:06.800 --> 0:30:07.960
<v Speaker 6>the outlook, does.

0:30:07.840 --> 0:30:08.760
<v Speaker 5>That change things.

0:30:09.360 --> 0:30:11.320
<v Speaker 12>The only way that would change is if you believe

0:30:11.360 --> 0:30:15.840
<v Speaker 12>that price earnings ratios really, really, really matter. And I'm

0:30:15.880 --> 0:30:20.920
<v Speaker 12>not one that thinks it does, because PE ratios are

0:30:20.960 --> 0:30:23.120
<v Speaker 12>they're like a rubber band. Okay, evaluation is like a

0:30:23.200 --> 0:30:25.479
<v Speaker 12>rubber band, and it can stretch and stretch and stretch.

0:30:25.600 --> 0:30:28.960
<v Speaker 12>John Maynard kaines markets can remain irrational longer than you

0:30:29.000 --> 0:30:33.000
<v Speaker 12>can remain solving. So there are you know, I look

0:30:33.000 --> 0:30:36.360
<v Speaker 12>at fundamentals as a reference point I look at fundamentals

0:30:36.600 --> 0:30:41.320
<v Speaker 12>as the narrative that ties into the strategy that you

0:30:41.400 --> 0:30:44.600
<v Speaker 12>want to employ. So I look at it. It's kind

0:30:44.600 --> 0:30:46.560
<v Speaker 12>of a bit of a different approach. I'm looking at

0:30:46.560 --> 0:30:48.200
<v Speaker 12>it from the fundamentals and what does it mean to

0:30:48.240 --> 0:30:53.560
<v Speaker 12>the narrative, because this is investing a beauty contest. It's

0:30:53.560 --> 0:30:56.040
<v Speaker 12>not what I think, it's not what anybody thinks. It's

0:30:56.040 --> 0:30:59.520
<v Speaker 12>what the market thinks. And if the market thinks based

0:30:59.560 --> 0:31:02.440
<v Speaker 12>on you know, certain indicators that you're looking at, and

0:31:02.600 --> 0:31:04.760
<v Speaker 12>valuation is not going to help you in this regard,

0:31:05.280 --> 0:31:09.080
<v Speaker 12>then you know, you'd have to say that it's it's concerning.

0:31:08.720 --> 0:31:10.240
<v Speaker 2>So our stock's expensive right now?

0:31:10.880 --> 0:31:14.080
<v Speaker 12>Oh yeah, I think by you know, pretty much most

0:31:14.120 --> 0:31:16.680
<v Speaker 12>measures see I face stuff. Yeah they are, you know,

0:31:16.800 --> 0:31:18.080
<v Speaker 12>pe ratio is a stretch.

0:31:18.080 --> 0:31:18.840
<v Speaker 4>Should we care those?

0:31:19.920 --> 0:31:24.680
<v Speaker 12>Uh well, if yes, you should care all right, because

0:31:24.760 --> 0:31:29.360
<v Speaker 12>ultimately earnings are going to matter and so and the

0:31:29.480 --> 0:31:31.880
<v Speaker 12>quality of earning is going to matter. That's another dynamic.

0:31:31.920 --> 0:31:33.920
<v Speaker 12>I mean, we talk about earnings. You mentioned, you know, Okay,

0:31:33.920 --> 0:31:36.360
<v Speaker 12>good earnings come up, but what about the quality of them?

0:31:36.400 --> 0:31:38.120
<v Speaker 12>And then you've got to be looking down the road.

0:31:38.400 --> 0:31:40.200
<v Speaker 12>You've got to be looking you know, six months nine

0:31:40.200 --> 0:31:42.400
<v Speaker 12>months down the road, and if you're a long term investor,

0:31:42.760 --> 0:31:45.320
<v Speaker 12>you basically kind of ignore a lot of this stuff

0:31:45.560 --> 0:31:48.440
<v Speaker 12>and find the ones that you might be most interested in. Like,

0:31:48.480 --> 0:31:51.080
<v Speaker 12>for example, if you believe that the energy demand is

0:31:51.120 --> 0:31:53.480
<v Speaker 12>going to be really strong, then if you have the

0:31:53.560 --> 0:31:56.640
<v Speaker 12>downmarket for a period of time, that presents a terrific

0:31:56.680 --> 0:31:59.400
<v Speaker 12>opportunity for you to position yourself in the areas that

0:31:59.440 --> 0:31:59.920
<v Speaker 12>you want to be.

0:32:00.240 --> 0:32:02.480
<v Speaker 6>Back to the Trump administration, I mean, if we have

0:32:02.640 --> 0:32:06.040
<v Speaker 6>tax cuts, if we have I don't know, easier regulations.

0:32:06.080 --> 0:32:07.920
<v Speaker 6>I'm just thinking about things that could give kind of

0:32:07.920 --> 0:32:11.400
<v Speaker 6>some juice to the liquidity equation and then give some

0:32:11.480 --> 0:32:14.240
<v Speaker 6>more momentum to the markets. Is that expected or that

0:32:14.520 --> 0:32:17.520
<v Speaker 6>even that to what you're saying, If you cross it

0:32:17.560 --> 0:32:20.200
<v Speaker 6>with fundamentals or technicals, it still isn't going to matter.

0:32:20.520 --> 0:32:22.320
<v Speaker 12>You know, when it comes down to Carol, it's no

0:32:22.480 --> 0:32:25.840
<v Speaker 12>one thing. It never is. We'd like it to condense

0:32:25.840 --> 0:32:27.960
<v Speaker 12>it down to like a pe ratio or things that

0:32:27.960 --> 0:32:30.960
<v Speaker 12>that's it, but it isn't. It's multiple things, and multiple

0:32:31.080 --> 0:32:32.239
<v Speaker 12>levels and many different things.

0:32:32.320 --> 0:32:34.560
<v Speaker 6>Multiple things at this point are against any kind of

0:32:34.600 --> 0:32:35.520
<v Speaker 6>momentum continuing.

0:32:36.040 --> 0:32:37.120
<v Speaker 5>That's that's kind.

0:32:37.040 --> 0:32:37.400
<v Speaker 12>Of your mind.

0:32:37.560 --> 0:32:38.080
<v Speaker 4>That's correct.

0:32:38.080 --> 0:32:40.560
<v Speaker 12>When you when you add up the historical aspect, when

0:32:40.560 --> 0:32:42.920
<v Speaker 12>you take a look at stretched earnings, when you look

0:32:42.960 --> 0:32:46.720
<v Speaker 12>at the momentum grinding down market action, you know, price

0:32:46.760 --> 0:32:49.800
<v Speaker 12>over pe ratios, things of that sort, excuse me, price

0:32:49.800 --> 0:32:52.400
<v Speaker 12>over moving averages. That when you when you take all

0:32:52.440 --> 0:32:55.600
<v Speaker 12>of those things into consideration, you know you're you got

0:32:55.600 --> 0:32:59.200
<v Speaker 12>to lean more towards a cautionary approach to things that cash.

0:32:59.240 --> 0:33:00.240
<v Speaker 5>I'm sorry, match us.

0:33:01.200 --> 0:33:02.600
<v Speaker 12>Your podcast is not a bad place.

0:33:02.960 --> 0:33:05.640
<v Speaker 5>Actually treasuries at this point, right.

0:33:06.000 --> 0:33:08.640
<v Speaker 12>Treasure Well, yeah, treasuries, except for the fact that you know,

0:33:09.640 --> 0:33:12.360
<v Speaker 12>I know one individual and I recommended him that he

0:33:12.400 --> 0:33:15.120
<v Speaker 12>continued to do his laddering approach, you know, three months,

0:33:15.120 --> 0:33:17.560
<v Speaker 12>six months, nine months, a year or two, that kind

0:33:17.560 --> 0:33:19.960
<v Speaker 12>of thing, and scale it out there, all.

0:33:19.920 --> 0:33:21.360
<v Speaker 5>Right, can leave it there. Happy New Year.

0:33:21.440 --> 0:33:22.080
<v Speaker 6>Nice to hep you again.

0:33:22.680 --> 0:33:23.160
<v Speaker 4>Great to see you.

0:33:23.240 --> 0:33:26.280
<v Speaker 6>Finny catalanour chief market strategist over at Stuvest and Capital Management,

0:33:26.360 --> 0:33:28.680
<v Speaker 6>joinining us right here in our interactive Brokers studio.

0:33:29.160 --> 0:33:34.000
<v Speaker 7>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

0:33:34.120 --> 0:33:37.840
<v Speaker 7>and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday

0:33:37.880 --> 0:33:41.920
<v Speaker 7>afternoons from two to five pm Eastern on bloomberg dot com,

0:33:41.960 --> 0:33:45.840
<v Speaker 7>the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.

0:33:46.080 --> 0:33:48.840
<v Speaker 7>You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

0:33:49.080 --> 0:33:51.240
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