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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 2: One of the names Abigail was talk to us about

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Speaker 2: was Boeing, And we want to figure out are these

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Speaker 2: folks going to be getting back to work because they

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Speaker 2: need planes to come off, you know the line, they

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Speaker 2: need the cash flow, they need to get.

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Speaker 3: Folks back to work.

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Speaker 2: George Ferguson covers all of the aerospace, all the defense,

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Speaker 2: and all the airlines for Bloomberg Intelligence. So, George, it

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Speaker 2: seems like the union's representatives have agreed to a deal

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Speaker 2: with Boeing. What do you think the actual workers are

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Speaker 2: going to do when they vote?

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Speaker 4: So, I think we're getting closer.

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Speaker 5: Look, I think what thirty five percent is the increase

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Speaker 5: over four years. Still, I think subs some of the

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Speaker 5: other union agreements we've seen in the marketplace.

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Speaker 4: You know what, like the port workers.

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Speaker 5: But I would note that Textron had a similar strike

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Speaker 5: by its machinists out in Wichita, Kansas. I'm not sure

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Speaker 5: if you get through they're very often Paul were aware

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Speaker 5: of that, but they just came back to they agreed

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Speaker 5: to come back to work. It was kind of a

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Speaker 5: sub thirty percent increase over four years. So my guess is,

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Speaker 5: you know that the shore workers probably or the port

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Speaker 5: workers probably set the high end of the of the

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Speaker 5: mark these Wichita machinists for Textra and probably set the

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Speaker 5: lower end. Boeing probably lived somewhere in the middle of

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Speaker 5: the thirty five.

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Speaker 4: Sounds about right.

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Speaker 5: Workers have been out on strike for about a month now, right,

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Speaker 5: So my guess is that finances are probably starting to look.

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Speaker 4: Challenge at some of those those household I.

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Speaker 5: Think Kelly Orperg, you know, pulled out the Hey, we're

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Speaker 5: gonna raise twenty five billion dollars in cash and we're

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Speaker 5: ready to go the distance. So I think those combinations

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Speaker 5: and then throwing some of the four to one K

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Speaker 5: money at them, right, there was some plus ups on

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Speaker 5: how much they would match the four O one K.

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Speaker 4: I think some initial.

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Speaker 5: You know, incentives on the four to one K. I

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Speaker 5: think they're pretty close, although I note that the union

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Speaker 5: leadership wouldn't endorse it.

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Speaker 4: From everything I've read, they they're just.

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Speaker 5: Passing along this offer from Boeing to the workers, you know,

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Speaker 5: for for a vote.

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Speaker 4: My guess is this is pretty close.

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Speaker 5: I think they might make it here, but I guess

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Speaker 5: we'll get we'll get a chance to see by Wednesday,

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Speaker 5: you know how cranky the union is and how much

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Speaker 5: more they want.

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Speaker 4: But it seems like it's pretty close.

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Speaker 6: George, how important is an end to this strike for

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Speaker 6: Boeing and just broader sentiment there. I mean, shares are

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Speaker 6: down about thirty nine percent you're today, Yeah, it's.

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Speaker 4: Huge, right.

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Speaker 5: I think if it doesn't get agreed to, I think

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Speaker 5: Boeing almost needs to raise money anyways. I guess it

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Speaker 5: might help them decide what amount of cash you.

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Speaker 4: Need to raise.

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Speaker 5: You know, I'm hearing stories that the supply chain still

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Speaker 5: building at the rates prior to the strike. You know,

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Speaker 5: components are stacking up on their you know, on their

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Speaker 5: loading docks. I think the longer it goes, the harder

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Speaker 5: it is to restart the line. The longer it takes

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Speaker 5: to restart the line, and the longer it takes to

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Speaker 5: generate cash. And I think Kelly Orpberg would prefer not

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Speaker 5: to go to the equity markets for a lot of

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Speaker 5: money and prefer not to have to draw down any

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Speaker 5: additional debt, not that they've said they would do that

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Speaker 5: at this point.

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Speaker 4: So it's very important for the turnaround.

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Speaker 5: And again, timing is crucial to keeping the supply chain

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Speaker 5: I think healthy and ready to go.

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Speaker 2: George talked to us about I know in the past

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Speaker 2: you've you know, educated us about the cash and how

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Speaker 2: the cash comes.

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Speaker 3: In and cash leaves a company like Boeing.

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Speaker 2: And it's it's tied pretty tightly to those seven three

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Speaker 2: seven jets leaving the floor.

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Speaker 3: How quickly can they restart it?

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Speaker 2: And where do you think the build modes for that

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Speaker 2: seven thirty seven jet will.

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Speaker 3: Be and what do they need to be.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so, I mean they need to get that jet

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Speaker 5: up into the into the mid forties and fifties.

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Speaker 4: I think it's going to take them, you know.

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Speaker 5: I think even if the strike ended today, I think

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Speaker 5: they're not going to hit sort of you know, the

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Speaker 5: forty ish Their target was thirty eight by the year end.

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Speaker 5: I don't think they're going to hit maybe a forty

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Speaker 5: ish level until midyear next year.

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Speaker 4: They ought to be.

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Speaker 5: Driving up towards towards fifty maybe hopefully by the end

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Speaker 5: of next year if this strike ended relatively soon. You know,

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Speaker 5: by comparison air buses competitor airplane the eight three twenty

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Speaker 5: that's being built right now in the mid forties, you know,

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Speaker 5: they're driving higher into the into the the they hope

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Speaker 5: to be driving higher to the mid sixties think over

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Speaker 5: the next year. So it hasn't gone as well for

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Speaker 5: them as they like, but their competitor product is doing

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Speaker 5: much better. This that is the cash cow for the company.

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Speaker 5: Defense is really you know, back on its heels right

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Speaker 5: now because of some of these big fixed price contracts

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Speaker 5: they signed that are that are out of water, which

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Speaker 5: makes it that much more important to get the seven

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Speaker 5: thirty seven rolling off lines. And just I think an

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Speaker 5: interesting point of comparison if you look at Poeing's inventory

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Speaker 5: level last time we saw it too q eighty five

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Speaker 5: billion dollars of inventory on their balance sheet. Their competitor

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Speaker 5: airbus was in the mid forty level billion dollars, So

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Speaker 5: you could tell that's just an example of how bloated

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Speaker 5: that inventory level is and how much they can unlock

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Speaker 5: as they start to deliver airplanes. But again seven thirty

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Speaker 5: seven is the is the key to that, and they

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Speaker 5: want to keep market share in that airplane too.

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Speaker 6: Speaking of market Chare, I did want to get your

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Speaker 6: take on how investors are thinking about Boeing. I mean,

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Speaker 6: of course it's had a really troubled year when we

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Speaker 6: think about twenty twenty four, but as you mentioned, they

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Speaker 6: have Airbus as a competitor, but not too many competitors

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Speaker 6: out there. So how do investors think about this when

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Speaker 6: they're thinking about Boeing and its longevity?

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Speaker 5: I think some of you know, what you've seen today

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Speaker 5: in the stock price gives you a sense investors know

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Speaker 5: it's a you know, it's a duopoly. And look, you know,

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Speaker 5: we've been doing some work recently on the backlogs. And

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Speaker 5: if you looked at Airbus's backlog for the competing airplane

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Speaker 5: in the A three twenty I was just talking about

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Speaker 5: competing to the seven thirty seven.

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Speaker 4: You know, we think it's probably ten years of backlog

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Speaker 4: in that airplane right now.

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Speaker 5: Right so even if you stepped into Airbus's sales office,

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Speaker 5: I'm sure it doesn't go, you know, all the way

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Speaker 5: full out for ten years, because there's some airlines that'll

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Speaker 5: come in and deliver or sorry, order out for a decade,

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Speaker 5: but you're probably into the twenty thirties before you get

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Speaker 5: that airplane.

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Speaker 4: So if you when you're.

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Speaker 5: Thinking about Boeing and you're thinking about the market share

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Speaker 5: risks around this, striking the problems they've had, at least

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Speaker 5: right now, if you want an airplane Boeing, you know

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Speaker 5: it's probably your best place to buy a narrowbody, single

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Speaker 5: aisle airplane, the seven thirty seven. So it's not like

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Speaker 5: anybody's walking away with this business while Boeing is having

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Speaker 5: their problems. I think investors know that the Chinese are coming,

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Speaker 5: you know, they Comac the C nine one nine that's

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Speaker 5: a narrowbody, single aisle airplane like the A three twenty

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Speaker 5: seven thirty seven that's just rolling out into fleets in China.

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Speaker 5: Now last week looked, I think there was eight or

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Speaker 5: ten of them. They don't get the service out of

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Speaker 5: them per day that Boeing and Airbus do. They get

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Speaker 5: about half, so they're still sort of you know, they're

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Speaker 5: still up coming up the learning curve, learning how to

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Speaker 5: support that airplane in the marketplace. So that's no replacement yet,

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Speaker 5: but that will move insize inside China in their fleets

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Speaker 5: that's been a very important market for Boeing an airbus,

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Speaker 5: and then it'll start to expand into that developing world

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Speaker 5: around China. Bowling at Airbus I think would really like

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Speaker 5: to get you know, they'd like to build at the

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Speaker 5: at the highest rates possible, build their cash flows and

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Speaker 5: come out with successor products in the twenty thirties and

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Speaker 5: forties that stay ahead of the Chinese and keep them

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Speaker 5: from taking significant market share. But again going back to

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Speaker 5: your initial question, it's still a two airplane builder world.

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Speaker 5: We don't see him Braier really getting into this business.

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Speaker 5: So right now the narrow body the larger air commercial

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Speaker 5: aircraft game. So it's really still a two manufacturer business

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Speaker 5: and investors know that, and I think that's what, you know,

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Speaker 5: what's leading to some of the action today.

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Speaker 2: Well, I can see the fleet aging right before my eyes.

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Speaker 2: I flew back from Charleston last week, Alex Steele and

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Speaker 2: I did, and the seven thirty seven still had like

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Speaker 2: the old card reader to get a TV show. I mean,

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Speaker 2: that's like twenty year old tech technology.

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Speaker 3: So I told I blame George for all that. He's

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Speaker 3: got to get these people back to work.

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Speaker 2: George Ferguson, Thanks for joining us there. George Ferguson's senior Aerospace,

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Speaker 2: Defense and Airlines analyzes our go to person and all

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Speaker 2: things as it relates to aerospace and airlines. He's a

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence then in Princeton. But it just seems like,

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Speaker 2: you know, you think about I can just see all

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Speaker 2: the you know, the stuff coming into the Boeing factory

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Speaker 2: to make the plane and just sitting there and piling up,

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Speaker 2: piling and appiling up because the line, the construction line,

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Speaker 2: that the manufacturing line is not not running.

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Speaker 6: So and I wonder how many people are still looking

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Speaker 6: at what plane they're taking for flights. As you remember

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Speaker 6: months back, things were falling apart and people were apprehensive,

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Speaker 6: they were nervous about getting on Boeing planes. So I'm

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Speaker 6: curious how many people are still shopping around when it

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Speaker 6: comes to flights there.

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Speaker 3: I never did that, and I always felt like you did.

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Speaker 6: Guilty as charged, okay, because.

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Speaker 2: I always I feel like the seven thirty seven Max

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Speaker 2: is now the safest plane right because it's gone through

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Speaker 2: so much.

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Speaker 3: Testing in review, But I don't know, I mean, it's

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Speaker 3: continue to do.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, any of the USA or the Western airlines generally speaking,

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Speaker 2: you know the safety.

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Speaker 7: Is what it is.

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Speaker 3: I think we feel pretty good about that.

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Speaker 1: Right. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and

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Speaker 1: just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: Let's turn back to the US markets here again.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and p I'm kind of down about five points now,

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Speaker 2: off about one hundred and forty five and nasdak up

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Speaker 2: twenty five. We check him with Phil Orlando, Federator at Hermes.

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Speaker 2: He is our go to guys we think about some

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Speaker 2: of these markets. He's a chief US equity market strategist

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Speaker 2: and head of the client portfolio group there. Hey, Phil,

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you saw this, but Goldman sachs

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Speaker 2: out with the note saying, you know, if you think

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Speaker 2: about the SMP over the next ten years, think about

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Speaker 2: low single digit returns as opposed to what we've seen

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Speaker 2: over the past ten years, which have been much better.

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Speaker 2: When you see some a note like that, how do

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Speaker 2: you kind of digest that well?

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Speaker 7: I mean, Goldman's probably right, We've had such a phenomenal

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Speaker 7: recovery in equities coming out of the depths of the pandemic,

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Speaker 7: you know, four years ago, four and a half years ago,

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Speaker 7: and just over the last year or so, that how

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Speaker 7: much of this has borrowed from the returns that you

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Speaker 7: might expect over the next decade. So Goldman, you know,

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Speaker 7: adjusting their capital market assumptions and saying, you know, mid

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Speaker 7: single digits over the next ten years probably feels right,

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Speaker 7: particularly in light of the fact that we're you know,

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Speaker 7: sitting here with thirty six trillion dollars in federal debt

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Speaker 7: and a total debt to GDP ratio of one hundred

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Speaker 7: and twenty five percent. Those numbers aren't sustainable, and you've

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Speaker 7: got to believe that at some point Washington's going to

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Speaker 7: find religion on trying to step away from the sugar

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Speaker 7: high that we've seen over the last couple of years,

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Speaker 7: with all of this massive amount of spending that'll have,

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Speaker 7: you know, potentially a deleterious impact on economic growth and

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Speaker 7: ultimately equity prices. So directionally, I don't disagree with what

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Speaker 7: Goldman said. The case for active management, though, is that

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Speaker 7: what you want to do, is you want to find

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Speaker 7: good firms, good managers, good products that can do better

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Speaker 7: than you know, the average. You know, those top quartile

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Speaker 7: performers that will you know, will will help you generate

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Speaker 7: the returns that you need for your you know, college

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Speaker 7: funds or retirement funds or whatever else.

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Speaker 6: Well, Phil, let's talk rates. Of course, we just got

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Speaker 6: that jumbo rate cut just what felt like yesterday, and

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Speaker 6: then here we're turning and we're going to be having

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Speaker 6: another meeting in a matter of weeks. What do you

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Speaker 6: expect to come out of that meeting? Of course, I know,

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Speaker 6: as you flag just a month later after that last cut,

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Speaker 6: we're seeing an economy that could be seen as reaccelerating

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Speaker 6: and a labor market that has strengthened. What does this

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Speaker 6: mean for markets? Do we see a rally continuing after

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Speaker 6: this next meeting? And what do you expect from the

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Speaker 6: next meeting to come?

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Speaker 7: So to take half a step back, we were surprised

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Speaker 7: by the pace of the fifty basis point raycut that

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Speaker 7: the said gave us in September eighteenth. We think that

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Speaker 7: the FED needs to sort of get back to you know,

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Speaker 7: that quarter point level November seventh, December eighteenth, and then

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Speaker 7: looking out over the next year and a half a

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Speaker 7: quarter point cut per quarter, and that would take us

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Speaker 7: down to a terminal value of the funds rate, let's

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Speaker 7: say by the middle of calendar twenty sixth, at about

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Speaker 7: three percent. We think that's a reasonable pace. And then

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Speaker 7: to your point, given the seeming reacceleration that we've seen

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Speaker 7: in the US economy over the last month or so

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Speaker 7: and sort of the sticky nature of inflation, in the

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Speaker 7: fact that the labor market in September was actually surprisingly strong.

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Speaker 4: You know.

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Speaker 7: Raphael Bostik, for one, the president of Atlanta FED, made

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Speaker 7: a comment, I guess was last week where he said,

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Speaker 7: you know what, maybe we should just skip November and

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Speaker 7: you know, come back in December and see where we're at.

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Speaker 7: So our view is that that the fifty we saw

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Speaker 7: in September was probably a little too aggressive, and given

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Speaker 7: sort of the tone of the economic data we've seen

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Speaker 7: over the last month or so, you know, ratcheting back

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Speaker 7: to a more conservative quarter point pace is probably more realistic.

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Speaker 2: Phil We're just starting to get into the real teeth

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Speaker 2: of the earnings season here. What have we seen so

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Speaker 2: far from the big banks that have reported in and

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Speaker 2: what do you think the market needs to see earnings

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Speaker 2: wise from the corporate America.

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Speaker 7: Well, the earnings haven't been bad. We're probably up four

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Speaker 7: percent or so year every year, which is fine. We're

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Speaker 7: probably gonna end up beating expectations as we usually do.

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Speaker 7: But importantly, the earning season is going to be slower

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Speaker 7: than the eleven or twelve percent year on year earnings

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Speaker 7: we saw in the second quarter. And I think that's

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Speaker 7: consistent with our soft landing thesis. We're not going negative,

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Speaker 7: We're just gonna slow down, you know, sort of a

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Speaker 7: trend to pace that that's you know, above zero, but

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Speaker 7: nowhere near as hot as the double digit pace that

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Speaker 7: we you know, we we saw in previous quarters.

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Speaker 6: So expectations for this earning season are low. Does that

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Speaker 6: support a further rally when we're looking at equities more

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Speaker 6: broadly coming out of this earning season, Well, you.

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Speaker 7: Know, we've seen a backup in treasury yields. From three

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Speaker 7: fifty three sixty, we're up to you know, north of

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Speaker 7: four to ten. Now, remember, price earnings ratios are inversely

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Speaker 7: proportionate with the direction of inflation and interest rates. So

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Speaker 7: the backup and yields suggested multiple should price earnings ratio

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Speaker 7: should be contracting. Yet the stock market hit another, you know,

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Speaker 7: all time record high last week. You've got stocks trading,

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Speaker 7: the S and P trading at a forward multiple north

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Speaker 7: of twenty one times on next year's earnings. We're estimating

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Speaker 7: two hundred and seventy five dollars for S and P

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Speaker 7: next year. Yet the appropriate pe on stocks, given what

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Speaker 7: treasury yields are, is probably south of eighteen times earning.

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Speaker 7: So you've got a valuation gap right now, you know,

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Speaker 7: of about twenty percent in round numbers. In my mind,

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Speaker 7: the market's extraordinarily enthusiastic here. It's looking through and discounting

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Speaker 7: very favorable federal reserve behavior, very favorable election results, very

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Speaker 7: favorable trajectory of economic roles and inflation. There's a lot

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Speaker 7: of enthusiasm built in here that you know, maybe we

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Speaker 7: ought to see a little bit of a pullback.

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Speaker 2: All right, Phil, thanks so much for that. I always

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Speaker 2: appreciate getting your thoughts on these markets.

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Speaker 3: It's Phil Orlando.

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Speaker 2: He's a chief equity market strategist and head of the

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Speaker 2: client portfolio MANAFIT team at Federated Hermes.

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Speaker 3: Zooming it in there from New York.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekdays at ten Ami Staring on applecar Playing and broud

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Speaker 3: Normal Linda sitting in for Alex Steel. I'm Paul Sweeney.

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Speaker 3: We're live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio.

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Speaker 2: We are streaming live on YouTube as well, so heitover

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Speaker 2: to YouTube dot com search Bloomberg Podcast and that's where

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Speaker 2: you will find us. Tensions in the Middle East, the

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Speaker 2: military conflict in the Middle East still front and center

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Speaker 2: for markets. We like to get some smart internal voices

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Speaker 2: as well as external voices. And that brings us to

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Speaker 2: our next guest, Ned Lazarius, Associate Professor of International Affairs

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Speaker 2: at George Washington University, joining us via zoom from Washington, DC. Professor,

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Speaker 2: thanks so much for joining us here. I'm just not

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Speaker 2: sure what next steps are there in the Middle East.

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Speaker 2: I guess one of them is what or how Israel

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Speaker 2: will respond to the missile attack on Israel, as well

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Speaker 2: as I guess a potential attack on Netahu's home.

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Speaker 3: Where are we in that discussion?

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Speaker 8: Well, you're quite right, this is a multi front war

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Speaker 8: now with active multiple active fronts, with Israeli troops fighting

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Speaker 8: in Gaza for over a year now, fighting on the

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Speaker 8: ground in southern Lebanon, as well as continuing airstrikes north

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Speaker 8: to the Dahia neighborhood of Beirutz, which is the Hesbalah stronghold.

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Speaker 8: We are still seeing missiles fired from Iraq from Yemen

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Speaker 8: from around the region, and we are waiting to see

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Speaker 8: what will be the Israeli response to the massive, second

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Speaker 8: massive Israel sorry Iranian missile barrage on Israel. We also,

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Speaker 8: as you know, there was a recent leak of potential

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Speaker 8: Israeli target plans that was leaked from the United States.

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Speaker 8: I believe there's now a secret meeting going on or

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Speaker 8: top secret meeting going on in Congress to discuss what

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Speaker 8: happened and try to identify the source that seems to

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Speaker 8: have leaked to the telegram social media Israeli planned that

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Speaker 8: were shared with the United States, and it's possible that

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Speaker 8: that source has more documents that may come to light

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Speaker 8: as well, so that may throw a wrench in Israeli plans.

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Speaker 8: If the plans that were leaked are accurate, It's all

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Speaker 8: unclear as has been the case throughout this war. The

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Speaker 8: only things that seem to be well known or that

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Speaker 8: Israel intends to strike back at Iran, that there has

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Speaker 8: been a tremendous amount of coordination and discussion with the

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Speaker 8: United States, given the sensitivity of our electoral calendar, with

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Speaker 8: our election coming up in just over two weeks.

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Speaker 6: Well, as you mentioned, we do have a presidential election

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Speaker 6: in just a matter of weeks. In the US is

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Speaker 6: hopeful for a cease fire before then, and it's been

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Speaker 6: reported that the Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln is said

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Speaker 6: to visit Israel among other countries in the area starting today,

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Speaker 6: and this one his eleventh visit in the region since

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Speaker 6: last October. Can you speak a bit more about how

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Speaker 6: the US is playing a role.

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Speaker 8: Blincoln is headed there almost Hochstein, the President's Special envoy,

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Speaker 8: who has been back and forth between Lebanon, Israel, and

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Speaker 8: Washington for months is there again this week. They're making

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Speaker 8: every effort to i think, at least keep it from

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Speaker 8: spiraling further out of control and to try and manage

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Speaker 8: Israel's responses in line with US interests. But they certainly

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Speaker 8: cannot control events, as we've seen events there, you know,

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Speaker 8: are beyond anyone's control, and even include surprises such as

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Speaker 8: the killing of Hamas leader Yehia Sinoar less than a

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Speaker 8: week ago, who was killed by Israeli regular infantry troops

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Speaker 8: who did not know that it was him. And this

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Speaker 8: is a massively important event which may eventually help turn

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Speaker 8: the course of the war. I do not expect a

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Speaker 8: ceasefire before the US election. There is just simply too

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Speaker 8: much going on. It's too escalated of a conflict at

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Speaker 8: the moment. As you said, we were waiting for Israel's

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Speaker 8: response to the Iranian attack. It is possible, not unthinkable,

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Speaker 8: that Israel would delay until after the US election, but

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Speaker 8: I would say that that seems less likely, and once

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Speaker 8: Israel responds, then there will be an Iranian response. So

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Speaker 8: a ceasefire, a total ceasefire on all the fronts, is

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Speaker 8: not in evidence, and I think the probably the Biden

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Speaker 8: administration is aware of that and is making every effort

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Speaker 8: to keep this from against spiling out of control or

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Speaker 8: escalating in a way that is contrary to US interests.

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Speaker 8: The US has set up a special air defense battery,

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Speaker 8: the Thaad Missile Battery, which Secretary of Defense Austin has

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Speaker 8: announced is now on the ground in Israel. He didn't

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Speaker 8: say whether it's operational, but obviously that's the plan, and

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Speaker 8: I assume that it will be shortly and that's to

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Speaker 8: help defend against further Iranian missile attacks.

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Speaker 2: What are the end games for Israel now? Just in

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Speaker 2: a year, it's gone from the initial strategy of neutralized

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Speaker 2: hamas and get the hostages back to I.

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Speaker 3: Don't know what it is now.

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Speaker 2: Have they articulated what their endgame is here on this

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Speaker 2: much broader front.

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Speaker 8: Well, I think there are two levels to this. So

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Speaker 8: one is the Israeli defense establishment, the state, the broader strategy,

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Speaker 8: and one is the prime minister, Prime Minister Nataniao, who

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Speaker 8: has his own political interests which may well be guiding

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Speaker 8: some of his decisions and often put him at odds

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Speaker 8: with his own defense establishment. I think that the in

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Speaker 8: terms of the broader Israeli interest, I think that right

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Speaker 8: now Israel has been on the offensive. After many months

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Speaker 8: when it seemed that victory was you know, a ridiculous

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Speaker 8: idea and that you know, things were not going well

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Speaker 8: from an Israeli military point of view, Israel has been

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Speaker 8: on the offensive. It's dealt severe blows to Hasbalah and

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Speaker 8: to Hamas, and it has, you know, with help from

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Speaker 8: the United States and regional allies, absorbed two massive Iranian attacks.

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Speaker 8: Israel has killed you know, the leaders of Hamas Hasbola.

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Speaker 8: So this has actually been, from an Israeli military point

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Speaker 8: of view, the most productive period of the war. And

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Speaker 8: I think that a goal is really to damage Hezbollah

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Speaker 8: and Hamas as much as possible before the US election.

439
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 8: I do think that they're sensitive to our role calendar

440
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,679
Speaker 8: and looking at that and thinking that after that election

441
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 8: they may need to recalibrate, so they're trying to get

442
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 8: all the blows in they can before that.

443
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,080
Speaker 2: Exactly, all right, Ned, thank you so much for joining us.

444
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 2: Ned Lazarus, Associate Professor of International Affairs at George Washington University,

445
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 2: giving us the latest out of the Middle East, a broadening.

446
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 3: Conflict that we've witnessed over the past twelve months ago.

447
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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452
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Speaker 2: Normal Linda sitting in for Alex steel On Paul Sweeneyer

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Speaker 2: live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. We are

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456
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 3: Our next guest.

457
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,920
Speaker 2: It's been trialing all over the place Dubai Berlin, so

458
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:17,879
Speaker 2: we're gonna get some fresh color about what's going on

459
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 2: in Global Wall Street. And Barry joins us. She is

460
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 2: the founder and managing partner of Thread Needle. Joining us

461
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 2: live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Dubai A

462
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:27,160
Speaker 2: bunch of technology people.

463
00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:28,400
Speaker 3: What were you doing in Dubai?

464
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:32,400
Speaker 9: Well, it was the world's biggest tech and investor startup conference,

465
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 9: unbelievable scale, six hundred six hundred six and a half

466
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 9: thousand companies, two hundred thousand tech executives and really leading

467
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 9: a lot of the conversations around AI is at hype?

468
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 9: Where are we in terms of cybersecurity and applications of AI? So, Paul,

469
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:48,640
Speaker 9: it was just a really interesting way of seeing where

470
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 9: the energy around tech is going, and more specifically in

471
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 9: the rest of the world, not just us entrepreneurs, but

472
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,160
Speaker 9: really getting a sense, what's the Middle East doing, what's

473
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,720
Speaker 9: Asia doing, and how is policy and government action meeting the.

474
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:03,160
Speaker 6: Private Sticking with tech, you're focus on the private side.

475
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:05,119
Speaker 6: I know you mentioned and recently invested in the software

476
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,919
Speaker 6: business that's focused on streamline contractor assessments. When they come

477
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,679
Speaker 6: to your house, I'll put in new HVAC systems. What

478
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 6: are you seeing there? Can you talk a bit more

479
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:13,880
Speaker 6: about that?

480
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 7: Sure?

481
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 9: Well, Laura, I look at the tech sector a lot

482
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 9: and talk about stocks out here at Bloomberg, and I've

483
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 9: recently been getting wired with the rallies that if I

484
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,640
Speaker 9: thought that it was getting a little thin in terms

485
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 9: of the air out there valuation wise, it's even more so,

486
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:26,879
Speaker 9: even more the case over the last couple of weeks,

487
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:28,679
Speaker 9: and so I've been looking a lot more at these

488
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 9: sort of niche software as service businesses where people like

489
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 9: the service Nows of the world, which is terrific company

490
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,359
Speaker 9: but extremely expensive. If you look at the multiples in

491
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 9: that business right now, where that could be the choir

492
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 9: of choice as it looks to roll up some of

493
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 9: these niche businesses. So that's the kind of place I'm

494
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 9: looking at HVAC. I'm a believer that there's a big

495
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 9: CAPEX replacement cycle coming as you know, global warming continues,

496
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 9: and those kinds of businesses I think will win over

497
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:51,959
Speaker 9: the long term.

498
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 2: So and at this tech conference in Dubai, talk to

499
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,919
Speaker 2: us about kind of the discussion around regulation, because you know,

500
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,439
Speaker 2: just historically the last fifty years, you is how to

501
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 2: relatively light touch on regulating the tech industry, and one

502
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:06,640
Speaker 2: can say that was maybe the reason why tech while

503
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 2: Silicon Valley is Silicon Valley, can't say that about Europe

504
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 2: broadly defined. How do they think about the next wave

505
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:16,440
Speaker 2: of technology to the Europeans today or maybe other parts

506
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:20,160
Speaker 2: of the world Asia, Do they think differently about regulatory control?

507
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 9: I think quite differently. I think there's a core part

508
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 9: of commonality though, and I think the core part of

509
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:28,919
Speaker 9: commonality is looking at how technology is going to impact

510
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 9: national security. I think if you look at that specific point,

511
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:35,360
Speaker 9: the US, Europe, the Middle East, Asia are all aligned,

512
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 9: which is trying to make sure that tech flourishes but

513
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,920
Speaker 9: doesn't pose as much of the risk that we fear

514
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 9: when it comes to national security. That being said, you're

515
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 9: right that EU has been leaning in in terms of

516
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 9: AI regulation. What I saw in the United Arab Emirates

517
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 9: and what I've seen in Singapore two actually is quite different,

518
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 9: and it's less about regulation and it's more about government

519
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,680
Speaker 9: partnership with the private sector. In both of those nations,

520
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 9: there's a really concerted effort by government aidencies to spend

521
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,399
Speaker 9: their money with startups and to take the risk on

522
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 9: businesses that otherwise don't yet necessarily have the credibility of

523
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 9: the track record to win those government contracts of their

524
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 9: own volition, and they're leaning in to try and take them.

525
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 9: They will take some of the tech risk, but will

526
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:17,240
Speaker 9: enable them to flourish as a result that I haven't

527
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 9: seen quite so much in the US.

528
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 6: How are you thinking about energy and secular consumer growth?

529
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:26,440
Speaker 6: But what's the play there? I mean, let's talk sotout

530
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 6: East Asia, well.

531
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,160
Speaker 9: Southeast Asia. I find really fascinating and this really goes back,

532
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:34,639
Speaker 9: Nora to some time I spent in Singapore, in Taiwan

533
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:37,680
Speaker 9: and in Korea towards the end of last year, and

534
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 9: there's been the secular shift in those nations where the

535
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 9: middle class is rising and rising. You know, we've talked

536
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 9: so much about the rise of the Chinese middle class

537
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 9: consumer over the last twenty years. If you now look

538
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 9: at these other Asian markets. You're seeing that happening with

539
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 9: a plumb as well. And one of the key things

540
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 9: that's so fascinating there is this particular demographic is really

541
00:28:56,440 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 9: hungry for homegrown brands, and they're really hungry for homegrown

542
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 9: travel and homegrown experiences. And so that I think is

543
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 9: a little bit different where you saw the Chinese consumer

544
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 9: hungry for Western brands, right, So, I think that shift

545
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 9: for local and that shift for regional is a little

546
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 9: bit different and provides opportunity.

547
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 2: I know, you invest both in public securities and private securities.

548
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 2: One could argue that public valuations are maybe too expensive

549
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 2: for some people, so they're trying to look for opportunities

550
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 2: in private. How do you think about valuations in public

551
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 2: versus private, particularly in the tech sector.

552
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 9: I do think that the public market at this point

553
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 9: is throftly. I think it's been that way for a while.

554
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 9: I think there are some really specific companies that have

555
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 9: got great secular tailwinds. I think those interesting places for tech.

556
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 9: But this rising tide has lifted all tech shifts. Has

557
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 9: been quite worrying to me for a while. When I

558
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 9: look at the private sector, whether it's in tech or

559
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 9: it's sort of tech adjacent industries trying to adopt tech

560
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 9: more quickly than before. I've been a long time private investor,

561
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 9: and we haven't seen the pace, specifically of private equity

562
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 9: activity I think, come back quite as much as we

563
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 9: thought it would in twenty twenty four. That I think

564
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 9: in twenty twenty five will change, and I think we're

565
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:06,560
Speaker 9: going to see more of a shift towards private market activity.

566
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 9: I personally see more value there now than I do

567
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 9: in the public markets, and so I think that's an

568
00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 9: interesting place to play in the next eighteen to twenty

569
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 9: four months.

570
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 6: What sectors are you favoring right now.

571
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 9: I've always been a fannuner of business services, and I've

572
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 9: always liked companies that have had really good opportunity to

573
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 9: play the outsourcing wave now. In Pau's question on tech,

574
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 9: the kinds of software businesses I like are outsourced solutions,

575
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 9: whether it's things like Salesforce or palow outer networks right

576
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 9: these are domain experts using tech to enable companies to

577
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 9: outsource their non core competencies. I like that too in

578
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 9: traditional businesses. I like that in terms of things like

579
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 9: uniform outsourcing businesses like Centils, which have tended to do

580
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 9: well really sort of no matter the macro environment. Those

581
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 9: are the kinds of places I've enjoyed looking at now.

582
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:50,479
Speaker 3: So I also know you were in your notes that

583
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 3: you were in Berlin for the World Department Store Summit. Yeah. Hey,

584
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 3: I didn't know there was such a but I'm glad

585
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 3: that there is.

586
00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, And so I guess we're talking retail of the consumer,

587
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 2: all that type of stuff.

588
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 3: What are some of your takeaways from that event?

589
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:05,760
Speaker 9: You know it was the energy in Europe was really sad,

590
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:07,959
Speaker 9: to be honest, Paul, at that particular time, and Germany

591
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 9: in particular. Not all parts of Europe polacy are the same.

592
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 9: But the European consumer market domestically, it's been hit by

593
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 9: continued inflation.

594
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 4: Right.

595
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 9: We've seen the fact of that in the sense we've

596
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 9: seen more aggressive rate cuts happening from the ECB than

597
00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 9: we've seen here. We have seen consumer sentiment over there

598
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 9: slow down much more dramatically than in other places, and

599
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 9: we've seen the absence of the tourists from traditionally core

600
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 9: markets like Russia, like the Middle East, like China. For Europe.

601
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 9: When you look at the consumer though, again in other places,

602
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 9: and it's fascinating. MasterCards is really interesting presentation with some

603
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 9: great data on where they're seeing international tourists travel and

604
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 9: where they're spending their money once they get there. And

605
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 9: again it's the Asian tourists from Korea, from Taiwan, from

606
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:55,920
Speaker 9: Malaysia out there spending their money causing some really interesting

607
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 9: patents and growth. Also from the United Arab Emirates, from

608
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 9: Saudi Arabia, from Kutur, you know, the Middle East. Also,

609
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 9: the consumer seems to be very robust at the moment.

610
00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:05,560
Speaker 6: How would you compare that to here in the US

611
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 6: when we think about consumer activity.

612
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 9: Yeah, you know, I think the US, Nora, I look

613
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 9: at that and I never cease to be amazed at

614
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 9: how bifurcated the consumers in the US, where you've got

615
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 9: the middle you know, the sort of upper a quartile

616
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 9: and beyond of the middle class in the US actually

617
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 9: doing very well. Right. They've continued to see their net

618
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 9: worth increase, They've continued to see asset inflation support their

619
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:30,600
Speaker 9: consumer habits. You see that in terms of credit cards spending.

620
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 9: You see that in terms of certain parts of niche

621
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:38,719
Speaker 9: specialty retail holding up a lot better. Where I actually

622
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 9: see a difference this time. You know, if you go

623
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,320
Speaker 9: look at back at prior cycles, places like the dollar

624
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 9: stores or the national visions of the world tended to

625
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 9: do really well. And so when we weren't so sure

626
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 9: here it looked like the consumer sentiment was beginning to break.

627
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 9: At the end of last year, I started to buy

628
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 9: those stocks, looking at history and saying, oh, I've seen

629
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 9: this before. I was wrong. By the way, those names

630
00:32:56,720 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 9: have actually done very poorly. They're not serving lower income

631
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 9: demographic with the same success as they used to, and

632
00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 9: I think that just shows how compressed that demographic is.

633
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 9: It also shows how their spending habits are changing. And

634
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 9: so I do worry that that bifurcation has got implications

635
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 9: that haven't yet shaken out in terms of the success

636
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 9: of certain kinds of retail here.

637
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 2: How do you think about opportunities just geographically maybe US

638
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:24,000
Speaker 2: versus Europe versus Asia, and absolutely different growth rate's, probably

639
00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 2: different valuation parameters. Where are you guys finding the most

640
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 2: opportunities these days?

641
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 9: Well, I just also in this sort of this bias

642
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 9: of coming back from the sort of global tour, I

643
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 9: do like businesses that have got really international exposure to

644
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 9: some of those markets. We've talked about the high growth

645
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 9: parts of the Middle East and Asia, but I do

646
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 9: like them where they've got the US halo of quality

647
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:46,160
Speaker 9: and transparency and visibility around them. So two areas where

648
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:49,240
Speaker 9: I've tried to lean into. One's a little bit more controversial.

649
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 4: Ups.

650
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 9: I like logistics businesses. We've been in a freight procession.

651
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 9: I did buy FedEx on that fifteen percent dip that

652
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 9: we saw, and I think ups it's one of the

653
00:33:57,040 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 9: world's biggest logistics companies. It does have exposure to a

654
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 9: Chinese recovery, it's going through its restructuring. I like that

655
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 9: global exposure, and I hope at least that we've come

656
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 9: to a bit of a stabilization in the decline of

657
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 9: the domestic business we've seen with Amazon compression, it took

658
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,800
Speaker 9: up the United States postal office. The other one, I

659
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,279
Speaker 9: would say back nor to your question earlier around what

660
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 9: am I seeing in terms of different consumer patterns. One

661
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:24,879
Speaker 9: thing that is consistent globally about the consumer is they're

662
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 9: looking for experiences. They really are leaning into spending more

663
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:33,239
Speaker 9: and more experiences, disproportionately more so than stuff. And so

664
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 9: a company that I like that's leaning into this is Hilton.

665
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 9: Hilton I think has got you know, some valuation upside.

666
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 9: It's an asset light business. The streets upgraded some of

667
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 9: its price outlooks. What I like about Hilton is they've

668
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:47,719
Speaker 9: really gotten the message on the rise on some of

669
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 9: these markets like Bahrain for example, like other parts of Asia.

670
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:56,280
Speaker 9: And you know, one hundred and sixty five properties opened

671
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 9: under the banner in Q two. More is coming or

672
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:01,879
Speaker 9: see the full run rate effect that in twenty twenty five.

673
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 9: And again, those regional middle class consumers are hungry to

674
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,240
Speaker 9: stay at quality properties and they want to do it locally.

675
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 3: And thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate it.

676
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 2: Love getting your global view and coming back from some

677
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:13,719
Speaker 2: of your recent travels. And Berry, she's a founder and

678
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 2: managing partner at Thread Needle. Joining us live here in

679
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:18,480
Speaker 2: our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio level.

680
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

681
00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:27,240
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard Play and Android

682
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live

683
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

684
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 1: say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

685
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:39,560
Speaker 2: All right, normal, Linda sitting in for Alex steel On

686
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 2: Paul Swiney. You're live here on our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio.

687
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 2: We're streaming live on YouTube as well. A great Bloomberg

688
00:35:45,120 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 2: Opinion column piece out today by mister Tim O'Brien. Trump

689
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:54,239
Speaker 2: goes all in on discord. Will voters follow him? Fascinating question.

690
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 2: Tim O'Brien joins his senior executive editor Bloomberg Opinion joins

691
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 2: us here on a Bloomberg Interactive Brokers student. The world

692
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 2: knows what former President Donald Trump is. He is not

693
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:08,239
Speaker 2: going to change for anyone. Will he have the same

694
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 2: support that he had or to pass several cycles I e.

695
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 2: Seventy five million people voting for him? He can count

696
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 2: on that, Kenny.

697
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 10: I think he probably can. I mean, I think you know,

698
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:19,320
Speaker 10: the issues from the beginning has always been that middle swath.

699
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:24,360
Speaker 10: I'm saying nothing original here, but independent and moderate voters

700
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:27,239
Speaker 10: in the Swing States again to decide who the next

701
00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 10: president is.

702
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 8: I think.

703
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 6: I mean, when we think about Trump supporter is what

704
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:34,080
Speaker 6: differences have you seen in terms of those who rally

705
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 6: behind him in this campaign versus previously? Have you seen

706
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:39,759
Speaker 6: more of an influx of individuals that are coming in

707
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 6: and you.

708
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:42,360
Speaker 10: Know, we're really struck. Where it really struck me is

709
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 10: when I was at the RNC in Milwaukee, and you know,

710
00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 10: Trump's base hates the media, they hate critics, and it's

711
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:54,440
Speaker 10: generally a pretty hostile environment. I've been to other Trump

712
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:58,839
Speaker 10: rallies and events, and at the RNC there was much

713
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:01,399
Speaker 10: less of that. It was they were writing very high

714
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:04,800
Speaker 10: at the time because they'd arrived. They were no longer

715
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:09,719
Speaker 10: the outsiders storming the gates. They have acquired power and

716
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:11,799
Speaker 10: are fairly certain how they want to now use it.

717
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:14,320
Speaker 10: And so I think there's more a sense of a

718
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 10: rival and certainty among his supporters about what they'll do

719
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 10: with the mandate he has given them. And I think that,

720
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 10: you know, in my perspective, that's a dangerous thing. So

721
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 10: I think it's a profoundly anti democratic and intolerant movement.

722
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 2: What's happened to the GOP, the Republican Party that my

723
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:36,960
Speaker 2: father grew up with since World War Two and that

724
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 2: I grew up with, is that gone forever?

725
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 4: Yeah?

726
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 10: You know, I grew up in the Midwest around traditional

727
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 10: Republicans and traditional defined by you know, I think people

728
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:55,240
Speaker 10: who believed in judicial restraint, robust national security, fiscal probity,

729
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 10: et cetera, et cetera. And I think those are all

730
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 10: wonky bread and but are policy issues that have been

731
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:07,320
Speaker 10: replaced by movement culture issues defined around gender, race. I

732
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 10: think avoidance and engagement with the outside world beyond the

733
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:13,560
Speaker 10: borders of the United States, and and and paranoia about

734
00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:15,880
Speaker 10: the other. And it's it's proven to be a very

735
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:17,880
Speaker 10: effective path to power, So I think it's going to

736
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:18,839
Speaker 10: be with us for some time.

737
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 6: I mean, can you speak to what aspects of what

738
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:25,920
Speaker 6: Trump stands for speaks to certain pockets of the Republican community,

739
00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 6: whether that be the affluent and finances well, I.

740
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 10: Mean I think there are you know, like both within

741
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 10: both parties. There are multifaceted members of both, you know,

742
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 10: both parties. I think for working class Republicans, Trump is

743
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:44,319
Speaker 10: a guardian and against demographic and economic changes that they

744
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:46,799
Speaker 10: feel threatens their well being and their standing in the

745
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:51,680
Speaker 10: world socially and economically. I think are affluent Republicans, there's

746
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 10: always been this idea that taxes wind up being pickpocketing

747
00:38:57,440 --> 00:39:00,279
Speaker 10: more than anything else, because they don't need the help

748
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 10: from the government that other members of society. Do You

749
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:04,960
Speaker 10: can have a debate around the virtues of that argument,

750
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 10: but I think that's where they stand, and to a

751
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 10: certain extent, I think they're willing to digest anything Trump

752
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:13,560
Speaker 10: says or does as long as he does that for them.

753
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 2: So there is some concern there of I think some

754
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 2: note out there in society that if former President Trump

755
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 2: were to win again in this November, how he'll perform

756
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:27,920
Speaker 2: he'll behave once in office, and there are some concerns

757
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 2: and fears about that behap behavior. How do you think

758
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 2: that is as a risk perhaps.

759
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:34,680
Speaker 10: Well, I mean, you know, I've never believed that Donald

760
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 10: Trump is a strategist. I think it's a mistake to

761
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 10: have the word strategy in the same sentence with.

762
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:40,239
Speaker 3: As his name.

763
00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:43,840
Speaker 10: But I think that he is a profoundly emotional and

764
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:48,239
Speaker 10: this frankly sensationalistic man, and he prides himself in that

765
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:50,920
Speaker 10: kind of emotional connection with his voters. And he's clearly

766
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:53,719
Speaker 10: been on a revenge tour. You don't have to be

767
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 10: particularly insightful to know what he's planning on doing. He

768
00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 10: wants to weaponize the Department of Justice and the military

769
00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 10: against perceived enemies American citizens and critics. That is against

770
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 10: the Constitution and is against the standards we've all lived with.

771
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:09,799
Speaker 10: I think he is intent on doing that. I think

772
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:12,879
Speaker 10: he wants to withdraw the US from the world, whether

773
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:17,360
Speaker 10: that's in East Asia, in the Middle East, or in

774
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:20,319
Speaker 10: Eastern Europe, and I think that that poses threats for

775
00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 10: national security.

776
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 6: Have you noticed any differences in terms of tolerance in

777
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 6: this election as we think about the controversy that comes

778
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 6: out of rhetoric from Trump. Have you noticed that people

779
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:31,759
Speaker 6: have become a bit more tolerant of some of the

780
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 6: controversial things that he says, and they may have been before.

781
00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:36,920
Speaker 10: You know, what I think is that this has always

782
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 10: been with us. You know, this is a country that

783
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 10: was founded in a revolution. We fought a civil war

784
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 10: to preserve the unity of the country. We have had

785
00:40:45,960 --> 00:40:55,760
Speaker 10: all sorts of historical grotesqueries against indigenous people's, slaves, women,

786
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:58,439
Speaker 10: et cetera, et cetera, and have tried to work those out.

787
00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:00,320
Speaker 10: It's one of the strengths in the United States is

788
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:02,720
Speaker 10: that we've tried to work through those differences. Few countries

789
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:05,359
Speaker 10: globally been able to. But I think all of the

790
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:09,600
Speaker 10: animosities and ugly thoughts that attend to those moments have

791
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:11,680
Speaker 10: always been with us, and I think the difference in

792
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 10: the Trump moment is it's been made transparent by social media,

793
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 10: and he's made it okay for us to entertain the

794
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 10: worst angels round nature. And I think that he's challenging

795
00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 10: us to really examine what the United States is about

796
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:27,560
Speaker 10: and where we want to take it.

797
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:29,279
Speaker 3: Tim, thanks so much for joining us.

798
00:41:29,320 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 7: Thank you.

799
00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 3: I appreciate it.

800
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:32,800
Speaker 2: Tim O'Brien, he's a senior executive editor for Bloomberg Opinion.

801
00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 2: He's got a wonderful piece out on the Bloomberg terminal today.

802
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 2: You can also get it at Bloomberg dot com. That's out

803
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:42,399
Speaker 2: there as well. As we approach I guess fifteen days to.

804
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:44,520
Speaker 3: The election, so for some of us that can't come

805
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:46,600
Speaker 3: too soon. I kind of like for shorter periods.

806
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:46,719
Speaker 8: You know.

807
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:48,760
Speaker 3: It's kind of a you know, European.

808
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:49,200
Speaker 6: Style Last race.

809
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:51,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, kind of pretty interesting.

810
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:56,280
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

811
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:59,799
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard Play and right

812
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business Act. You can also listen live

813
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:06,319
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

814
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:10,799
Speaker 1: Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

815
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:10,879
Speaker 3: Nor of Linda.

816
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:12,799
Speaker 2: She's sitting in for Alex steel On Paul Sweeney. We're

817
00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 2: live here in a Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio streaming live on.

818
00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 3: YouTube as well. An EF.

819
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:21,560
Speaker 2: We love our folks at Bloomberg n EF because they

820
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 2: are the team within Bloomberg that tracks and analyzes the

821
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:26,280
Speaker 2: energy transition.

822
00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 3: So they are go to folks here.

823
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 2: Chris Ganomski Joints is here at lead nuclear analyst for

824
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 2: bn EF. Hey, Chris, talk to us about nuclear here

825
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:38,279
Speaker 2: because I'm seeing your first note here blooming away. For

826
00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 2: the first time since two thousand and seven, there are

827
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 2: no nuclear reactors under construction in the US. Wow, talk

828
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:47,240
Speaker 2: to us about where we are with that technology, because

829
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 2: I feel like it's got to be part of the

830
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 2: transition somehow.

831
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 11: You know, think about a football team or a basketball

832
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:57,440
Speaker 11: team and you're sitting your best player on the bench,

833
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:03,440
Speaker 11: and there's a lot of issues with regards to nuclear energy,

834
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:07,279
Speaker 11: but it is a very, very robust technology that can

835
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 11: provide the twenty four to seven type of base load

836
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:16,520
Speaker 11: power that many customers are looking for and interested in having.

837
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:19,759
Speaker 11: We are, for the first time since two thousand and

838
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:23,719
Speaker 11: seven without a reactor under construction, which is very, very discouraging,

839
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 11: especially in the context of the fact that China has

840
00:43:27,239 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 11: got something like twenty seven to twenty eight reactors under

841
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:33,799
Speaker 11: construction and Russia is building twenty two or twenty three

842
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 11: reactors around the world in six different countries. So what

843
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:40,719
Speaker 11: has happened to the US nuclear industry. We've kind of

844
00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:44,480
Speaker 11: dropped the ball on large reactor construction. And there's a

845
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:46,799
Speaker 11: lot of hope and a lot of cheerleading that some

846
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:49,600
Speaker 11: of these advanced reactors are being developed by a whole

847
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:53,480
Speaker 11: slew of companies will carry the day and provide an

848
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 11: alternative nuclear solution.

849
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 6: Talk us through just how long it takes to license

850
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:01,120
Speaker 6: and build a lot of these large reactors.

851
00:44:01,560 --> 00:44:04,360
Speaker 11: So though the AP one thousand that was built in

852
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:10,280
Speaker 11: Vogel at a budget a cost of thirty four billion dollars,

853
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 11: it took about fifteen years to license and build, and

854
00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:18,600
Speaker 11: that's quite a long period of time. What utility executive

855
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:20,600
Speaker 11: is going to look around and says, listen, let me

856
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:23,239
Speaker 11: grab another one of these and spend that type of

857
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:28,240
Speaker 11: cash and wait that long, especially since the new technologies

858
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:32,320
Speaker 11: intermittent renewables are coming on and they provide an alternatives

859
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:35,440
Speaker 11: and there's a lot of change in the utility industry

860
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:38,239
Speaker 11: and the electric power industry, and hence it becomes a

861
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:43,719
Speaker 11: pretty risky proposition to place a bet billions of dollars

862
00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 11: for a technology that's not going to come and return

863
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:51,680
Speaker 11: investment for several different years. And there's several examples not

864
00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:53,839
Speaker 11: only in the US, but also in Europe where this

865
00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 11: is going on.

866
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 2: Some of these smaller modular reactors that we hear about,

867
00:44:58,160 --> 00:45:00,160
Speaker 2: that kind of seems like a reasonable solution to me.

868
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:03,400
Speaker 2: I don't have to build this monster, you know, generator.

869
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 2: I do something smaller for maybe you know, much lower cost,

870
00:45:08,239 --> 00:45:10,440
Speaker 2: presumably cheaper all the kind of stuff.

871
00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:15,000
Speaker 11: Well, the question is that we anticipate that those reactors

872
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 11: may be more expensive on a per kilowide basis, but

873
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:23,080
Speaker 11: the risk that they present to a utility executive deciding

874
00:45:23,120 --> 00:45:27,320
Speaker 11: to invest this technology is less. You can build them sequentiously,

875
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:30,600
Speaker 11: sequentially so that you get a cash flow after the

876
00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:33,200
Speaker 11: first one is up and running and now you're building

877
00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 11: the second one, as opposed to waiting the many years

878
00:45:36,160 --> 00:45:40,879
Speaker 11: to get that. We anticipate that licensing and building an

879
00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:44,600
Speaker 11: SMR will take about five to six years. Two years

880
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:48,360
Speaker 11: in the licensing process and three or four years optimistically

881
00:45:49,360 --> 00:45:53,960
Speaker 11: for construction. We don't anticipate any of these advanced reactors

882
00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:57,520
Speaker 11: coming online in North America until twenty thirty.

883
00:45:58,040 --> 00:45:59,840
Speaker 6: How does this compare internationally?

884
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:04,680
Speaker 11: Well, the US is a leader in the development of

885
00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:10,760
Speaker 11: advanced reactors and SMRs. There's only two SMRs that operate

886
00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:13,560
Speaker 11: around the world, one in China, one in Russia, and

887
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 11: only two under construction, one in China and allegedly in Russia.

888
00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 11: They're supposed to break around soon. We have a very

889
00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:28,000
Speaker 11: interesting development in Wyoming with terror Power developing or replacing

890
00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:31,520
Speaker 11: a coal plant with an advanced reactor, which is very,

891
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:36,160
Speaker 11: very exciting. But they have not received a construction permit

892
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:40,719
Speaker 11: for that reactor yet and they're still doing preliminary work,

893
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 11: and we anticipate that coming online around the twenty thirties.

894
00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:49,359
Speaker 2: What's the feeling within the halls of Congress about this

895
00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:53,480
Speaker 2: power source? Is there any support for nuclear power or

896
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:56,200
Speaker 2: is ideologically divided or where are we on this?

897
00:46:56,800 --> 00:47:00,640
Speaker 11: It's certainly changing from being very very questionable and very

898
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:04,040
Speaker 11: very nervous about it to be more accepting of the

899
00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 11: technology because they realize the certain advantages of nuclear power.

900
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:14,840
Speaker 11: I live in a solar powered house in California. I

901
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:18,000
Speaker 11: get all of my electricity from solar energy. But when

902
00:47:18,040 --> 00:47:21,800
Speaker 11: you think about empowering a large city or so, you

903
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:26,359
Speaker 11: need something more than just intermittent renewables. Renewables are very

904
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:28,600
Speaker 11: good solution for part of the problem, but they're not

905
00:47:28,760 --> 00:47:32,319
Speaker 11: a solution for the entire problem. So to displace some

906
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:35,479
Speaker 11: of the fossil fuel that we see being used now,

907
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:38,120
Speaker 11: we need to have a clean, carbon free source of

908
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:43,080
Speaker 11: nuclear power. SMRs have greater flexibility, easier to bring online,

909
00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:45,680
Speaker 11: and hopefully they'll have a role to play in the future.

910
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 6: Well, let's talk about AI. We think about data centers

911
00:47:49,239 --> 00:47:52,360
Speaker 6: and the demands there, and when we think about nuclear

912
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:55,520
Speaker 6: supplying these data centers. I know you mentioned that this

913
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:58,839
Speaker 6: should be a pretty much a post twenty thirty phenomenon,

914
00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:02,040
Speaker 6: apart from the revival of Three Mile Island by twenty

915
00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:06,200
Speaker 6: twenty eight. Can you talk a bit more about that, Yes.

916
00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:09,239
Speaker 11: I'd be There are several studies that suggest that there's

917
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:12,560
Speaker 11: a tremendous demand growth for nuclear power between now and

918
00:48:12,640 --> 00:48:16,839
Speaker 11: twenty thirty. There are some questions will that growth continue

919
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:20,839
Speaker 11: after twenty thirty or will plateau for a while. I

920
00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:23,399
Speaker 11: wish I could say that there'll be a solution from

921
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:28,239
Speaker 11: the advanced nuclear community before twenty thirty. But if it is,

922
00:48:28,280 --> 00:48:30,200
Speaker 11: it's just going to be first of a kind, one

923
00:48:30,280 --> 00:48:35,360
Speaker 11: or two reactors, and the challenge is developing a supply

924
00:48:35,560 --> 00:48:38,960
Speaker 11: chain that can deliver a fleet of these advanced reactors

925
00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 11: to really respond to the growing demand for electricity from

926
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 11: the data centers.

927
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:47,440
Speaker 3: Hi, Chris, thank you so much for joining us. Chris Kadomski.

928
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:51,719
Speaker 2: He is the lead nuclear analyst for b NFBNF. They

929
00:48:51,760 --> 00:48:55,200
Speaker 2: are the team within Bloomberg that tracks and analyzes the

930
00:48:55,320 --> 00:48:56,280
Speaker 2: energy transition.

931
00:48:56,680 --> 00:48:57,719
Speaker 3: They do great, great work.

932
00:48:57,760 --> 00:49:00,600
Speaker 2: They have extraordinary data, a lot of proprietary data for

933
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:02,839
Speaker 2: the BNF folks as well.

934
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apples, Spotify,

935
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each

936
00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:14,480
Speaker 1: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,

937
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:17,959
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.

938
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

939
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:23,160
Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal