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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go from throwing aspect. I'm saying

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Speaker 1: it's a cash toto. That's all we see. Most gamblers

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Speaker 1: when they go to gamble, they go to win. That's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 3: This is the ultimate commotion if you.

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Speaker 1: Want to pull.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 1: What is good? It is that time of year again,

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Speaker 1: NFL Week one.

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Speaker 2: This is the Action Network Podcast presented by bet Ambm.

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Speaker 2: I am Chris Raybon and I am here to break

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Speaker 2: down our player projections for week one here on the

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Speaker 2: Player Projections Pod.

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Speaker 1: And I'm doing it with one of the.

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Speaker 2: Best projectors on the planet, always finishing in the top

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Speaker 2: five in all of the accuracy contests. That would be

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Speaker 2: none other than the odds maker Sean Turner. Already chuckling

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Speaker 2: over there. What's going on?

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Speaker 3: Sean?

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Speaker 1: Happy? Happy? Happy week one?

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Speaker 3: Happy Week one. And we're already getting hit with a

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Speaker 3: few significant injuries that I'm already frantically trying to update

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Speaker 3: all the projections I thought were done for the week.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, how's it going? Man?

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Speaker 2: Oh man, It's it's going well. I'm loving this time.

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Speaker 2: Of year, like it finally feels like we're back. We're here.

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Speaker 2: We just had an article drop with lot projected spreads

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Speaker 2: and totals. Now we get to talk some player projections

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Speaker 2: in this pod, and for people that are new listeners,

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Speaker 2: we will go through our top five at each position.

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Speaker 2: We'll go through players we're high and lower than higher

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Speaker 2: and lower than consensus at at each position and get

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Speaker 2: into some of our projections for those guys, and we'll

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Speaker 2: for each position will set a player prop, So Sean

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Speaker 2: will set two props and I'll set two props, and

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Speaker 2: we'll keep score. I believe I edged you out at

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Speaker 2: the end of the year last year, so you need

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Speaker 2: some payback this year.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I'll be checking out.

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Speaker 3: I think you beat me by like three or four.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that's still I count that as an edge. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: a lot of variants, but your pith, your pith was

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Speaker 2: only minus half a prop. But yeah, that's how we're

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Speaker 2: gonna do it on this pod. So hopefully, whether you're

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Speaker 2: playing Fantasy dfs or interested in player props, you can

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Speaker 2: find some value here.

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Speaker 1: And without further ado, let's get right into it.

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Speaker 2: Quarterback Week one, twenty twenty three Top five we got

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Speaker 2: so right.

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Speaker 3: Now, I have Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen,

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Speaker 3: Justin Fields. But if Travis Kelsey is officially ruled out,

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Speaker 3: I'll probably have Lamar as my number one. It's that close.

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Speaker 3: So but as of now, I have Mahomes is my

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Speaker 3: number one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. You know, that

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Speaker 2: Detroit game should be a high score game. Now with

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Speaker 2: the Kelsey injury, that does change some things. But Chiefs

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Speaker 2: games in Week one have gone over sixty points in

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Speaker 2: I believe it's six of the last seven years they've

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Speaker 2: scored thirty plus. I believe all those you know of

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Speaker 2: those games. So this could be a high scoring game

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Speaker 2: even without Kelsey. So I'm not gonna be too worry

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Speaker 2: about Mahomes. But yeah, he might drop a spot or two.

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Speaker 2: I can't see him dropping more than QB four maybe.

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Speaker 1: I think that's probably the floor.

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Speaker 2: But I have Mahomes, Hurts, Jackson, Josh Allen, and Justin Herbert.

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Speaker 2: So I got Herbert just ahead of Fields in what

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Speaker 2: I expect to be a really high scoring game.

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Speaker 1: And you know I've been talking.

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Speaker 2: I'm all in on Herbert just balling out this year,

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Speaker 2: and I like the opportunity to start highest highest total

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Speaker 2: of the Sunday slate I believe.

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Speaker 3: Might be the highest total of the week. Now. The

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Speaker 3: total for the Chiefs game dropped two and a half,

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Speaker 3: so they're pretty close, and I think the Chiefs game

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Speaker 3: is still like slightly up, but it's a lot closer

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Speaker 3: now than it was, you know this morning.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely so loving love me some Herbert in that

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Speaker 2: number five spot field is my QB six So not

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Speaker 2: not too far apart there. Who is a quarterback that

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Speaker 2: you're higher than consensus on?

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Speaker 3: So right now, I'm I'm pretty high on Anthony Richardson

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Speaker 3: compared to the the ECR I have. He's my QB eleven.

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Speaker 3: ECR has him QB sixteen. But this is you know,

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Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts justin fields all over again, where ECR is

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Speaker 3: probably too low on Richardson out of the gate. You know,

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Speaker 3: he's certainly a rookie quarterback that will struggle as a passer,

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Speaker 3: there's no denying that. But you know, he's just arguably

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Speaker 3: the most athletic QB we've ever seen. I Mean, the

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Speaker 3: dude is six four two forty four and ran a

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Speaker 3: four point four three thirty forty yard dash. So it's like,

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Speaker 3: you know, he's going to be able to hit the

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Speaker 3: ground running literally, So you know, I'm I'm projecting him

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Speaker 3: closer to you know, fifty rushing yards. You know, his

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Speaker 3: final preseason start was the first time we got to

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Speaker 3: see him kind of scramble and he was ripping off

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Speaker 3: five fifteen yard trunk runs with ease. So you know,

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Speaker 3: I'm banking on his rushing ability to be you know,

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Speaker 3: a low end QB one this year. So right out

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Speaker 3: of the gate, the Jaguars is, you know, probably a

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Speaker 3: neutral matchup for him, so nothing to shy away from.

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Speaker 3: So I think heading in the week one, we need

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Speaker 3: to be treating him as a low end QB one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I have him right around saying like QB eleven, He's

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Speaker 2: definitely going to be in that range in my final ranks,

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Speaker 2: you know, border line QB one, especially in deeper leagues.

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Speaker 2: How many passing yards and rushing yards you said you

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Speaker 2: have him about fifty rushing yards, right, How many passing yards?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, probably in the one eighty to one ninety range.

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Speaker 3: I'm not expecting much there, but you've been mentioning it.

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Speaker 3: They will push the ball down field, like, he does

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Speaker 3: have a good arm. His accuracy is the main issue.

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Speaker 3: He's not going to be very accurate as a rookie,

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Speaker 3: but they're gonna let him sling it. So you know,

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Speaker 3: he could you know, top two hundred yards out of

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Speaker 3: the gate. But you know, I'm being pretty conservative. I think,

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Speaker 3: you know, he's gonna struggle as the passer out of

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Speaker 3: the gate. So I have it, you know, closure of

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Speaker 3: the one eighty one ninety one ninety yards range, how

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Speaker 3: about you.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, as we record this on a Tuesday afternoon, I

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Speaker 2: have him at one ninety seven passing fifty rushing.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 2: You know that matchup against the Jaguars. The Jaguars, I

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Speaker 2: think are going to be a pretty high scoring offense

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Speaker 2: this year, and I don't see this coach defense as

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Speaker 2: a prohibited matchup. So there might be some garbage time

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Speaker 2: where you know, I know Richardson is not that accurate,

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Speaker 2: but he might.

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Speaker 1: Get some some easy completions.

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Speaker 2: You know, maybe he gets like one or two drives

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Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter where it's like all passes and

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Speaker 2: some scrambles.

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Speaker 1: So he does have upside from those numbers.

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Speaker 2: Like I definitely agree with you that he could clear

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Speaker 2: two hundred, but as a median, yeah, about one about

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Speaker 2: just over one hundred and ninety five and about fifty

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Speaker 2: yards rushing. For me, it's a guy I'm high on

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Speaker 2: and I know you're hiring him too. Gino Smith, he's

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Speaker 2: my QB ten, he's the QB thirteen and Fantasy pros ECR.

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Speaker 2: And I really like Gino because I'm looking at this

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Speaker 2: Rams defense and they lost every single player who finished

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Speaker 2: top six and snaps for them last year, Bobby Wagner,

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Speaker 2: Jalen Ramsey, Nick Scott Taylor, Rap, Windard Floyd, and Greg Gaines.

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Speaker 2: Now Ramsey is one of the best corners in the league.

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Speaker 2: That hurts the pass defense. Obviously, Scott and Rap we're

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Speaker 2: both safeties who played really well for the Rams last year.

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Speaker 1: And then Leonard Floyd was one of their better pass rushers,

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Speaker 1: so that is.

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Speaker 2: And then Troy Hill, you know, that's another cornerback they

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Speaker 2: lost and he had the eighth most snap. So this

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Speaker 2: Rams defense I think is going to struggle this year,

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Speaker 2: but especially in Week one when there's gonna be a

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Speaker 2: lot of young guys, a lot of new pieces, I

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Speaker 2: think there's gonna be some miscommunication and I just don't

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Speaker 2: think this Ram defense is gonna resemble anything we've seen

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Speaker 2: now in the past from them, and Gino in two

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Speaker 2: games against the Rams last season averaged two hundred and

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Speaker 2: ninety passing yards, two touchdowns, and one and a half interceptions. Now,

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Speaker 2: I think he could still do the two ninety and

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Speaker 2: the two scores, but I think the interceptions are less

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Speaker 2: likely with no Ramsey with all these new guys in

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Speaker 2: the secondary.

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Speaker 1: And Gino also average twenty seven and.

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Speaker 2: A half rushing yards per game in the two games

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Speaker 2: against the Rams, so over three hundred total yards for Gino.

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Speaker 2: I think he can do that again. Smith and Jigbo

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Speaker 2: looks like he might has a chance to play. Came

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Speaker 2: back to practice, So even if he's not, you know,

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Speaker 2: metcalf Locket, you got the Charbonne, should be able to

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Speaker 2: catch some passes. He still got the two tight ends,

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Speaker 2: Fan and so enough weapons either way for Gino.

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Speaker 1: But really like the matchup against the Rams.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he's my QB eight and you know, even like

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Speaker 3: a couple of months of guys said he's gonna probably

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Speaker 3: the top option of the quarterbacks that were drafted in

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Speaker 3: the QB one to fringe because of this matchup, he

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Speaker 3: has the best matchup of those guys this week. Like

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Speaker 3: you said, it's it's essentially Aaron Donald a bunch of

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Speaker 3: scrubs for the Rams defense this year. Plus you know,

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Speaker 3: they played a ton of zone and that's where Zeno

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Speaker 3: Gino like Smash. Last year he ranked second in QB

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Speaker 3: rating and fifth and success rate against zones. So it's

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Speaker 3: also a good matchup for him. And yeah, it'd be

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Speaker 3: nice if he has his first round pick and Jackson

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Speaker 3: Smith and Jigba failable. But like you said, he has

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Speaker 3: you know, DK Metcalf and Tyre Lockett, so he should

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Speaker 3: be fine. So yeah, he's he'sily a top ten quarterback

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Speaker 3: for me this week.

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Speaker 1: What about a quarterback you're lower on than consensus?

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Speaker 3: This one was tougher. You know, I'm pretty close to

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Speaker 3: Easier on all the other guys, but Dak Prescott, I noticed,

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Speaker 3: you know, Easier has him QB ten. I have him

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Speaker 3: QB fourteen in my initial projections. But to be fair,

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Speaker 3: this is a this is a range where just a

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Speaker 3: slight tweak can send a quarterback up or down four

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Speaker 3: or five slots. So the uh, you know, the streamer

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Speaker 3: sit start range is going to be pretty volatile this

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Speaker 3: week but my expected yards per tent model shows just

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Speaker 3: a few red flags for Dak this week, just based

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Speaker 3: on the matchup. You know, he tended to see that

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Speaker 3: one of the bigger drop offs most quarterbacks saw against,

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Speaker 3: you know, the blitz man coverage, playing on the road

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Speaker 3: and outdoors especially, so all those factors are in play

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Speaker 3: this week because you know, Giants blitz and play man

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Speaker 3: coverage at the highest rate. So it's just a spot

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Speaker 3: where you know, Dak's going to be probably my top

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Speaker 3: ten most weeks, but he just gets a slight downgrade

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Speaker 3: this week, so I'd be careful with him. If there

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Speaker 3: might be you know, Geno Smith available, consider him. You're

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Speaker 3: probably starting Deck anyway, but just lower expectations this week.

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Speaker 3: This isn't really a great spot for him. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: he opens a week as my QB fourteen.

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Speaker 1: So you're starting Richardson over Dack this week.

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Speaker 3: It depends on your situation. I think Richardson probably does

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Speaker 3: have the lower floor just because there is a lot

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Speaker 3: of uncertainty there. So if I'm a huge favorite, I'm

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Speaker 3: probably still rolling with Dak. But yeah, just given Richardson's

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Speaker 3: rushing upside, I think that does you know, make him

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Speaker 3: you know, a safer play than Dack in most formats.

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Speaker 3: But like I said that that range, there's probably like

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Speaker 3: point three points separating my my QB eleven and my

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Speaker 3: QB like sixteen, so it's a voltaile range. You know.

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Speaker 3: These are just my initial ranks, same with yours, so

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Speaker 3: they could shuffle up by the end of the week.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, as of now, yeah, Richardson slightly higher.

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Speaker 1: Just curious, what is your thoughts on the Giant d

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Speaker 1: this year.

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Speaker 2: I think I think it could be a little bit

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Speaker 2: better than people think. You know, they have you know,

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Speaker 2: they have that front foward that I think is really

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Speaker 2: good with Lawrence and Williams and Caveon, and they got

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Speaker 2: a linebacker, no Carake, so that that should help. But

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Speaker 2: their corner, like their corners, you have Deontay Banks and

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Speaker 2: you have Trey Hawkins, two rookies that are probably gonna

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Speaker 2: start outside.

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Speaker 1: Now that could be that could be an.

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Speaker 2: Issue, but I think over the long term at least

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Speaker 2: uh those guys are gonna surprise him.

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Speaker 1: But they've had really good camps.

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Speaker 2: Now the tough thing is in week one it might

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Speaker 2: be the opposite, So that actually might be something good

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Speaker 2: for DAK. But just curious as to where you're kind

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Speaker 2: of ranking the Giants D because I know they didn't

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Speaker 2: really get much respect last year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, no, I agree with you. I think, you know,

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Speaker 3: not everybody's Sauce Gardner and can just become you know,

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Speaker 3: the top corner in the league as a rookie. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I think initially Banks could struggle, but in the long run,

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Speaker 3: you know, that's an upgrade there. I actually loved the

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Speaker 3: trade to bring in Isaiah Simmons. You know, he's we

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Speaker 3: can't call him a bust yet, but in this scheme,

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Speaker 3: you know, where they're sending blitzers and stuff, he could thrive.

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Speaker 3: So he could, you know, be an interesting weapon, interesting

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Speaker 3: piece in this defense. But you know, Thibodeaux could have

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Speaker 3: you know, a great second year. So yeah, there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of good pieces in this Giants defense. It's probably

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Speaker 3: a plus matchup for Dak on paper, but all the

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Speaker 3: schematic things, you know, how much they blitz, how much

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Speaker 3: they play man, and like I said, Dak was really

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Speaker 3: bad on the road and outdoors. Those are kind of

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Speaker 3: the aspects I was fading Doak on. But yeah, the

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Speaker 3: Giants are probably a plus matchup out of the gate.

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Speaker 3: But like you said later in the season, especially if

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Speaker 3: like Banks does hit his potential, you know, it could

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Speaker 3: be a lot better this year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot of upside for the defense. I

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Speaker 2: guess I would watch out, you know, as the year progresses.

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Speaker 2: At least keep tabs and make sure you're not just

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Speaker 2: kind of blindly starting people against the Giants, because that

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Speaker 2: might be one of those defense that starts to get

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Speaker 2: better quickly.

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Speaker 1: All right. For me, you know where I'm going. Gotta

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Speaker 1: go with Derek Carr.

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Speaker 2: He's the QB nineteen, so this is more applies to

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Speaker 2: you know, two QB leagues and things like that super flex,

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Speaker 2: but he's my QB twenty four, so he's borderline in

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Speaker 2: a twelve team or if you're in a super flex

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Speaker 2: or a two QB. He's a borderline start for me

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Speaker 2: because we know that all of his worst seasons have

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Speaker 2: come in year one under a new system, and this

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Speaker 2: is of course the first game of that, So I

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Speaker 2: do think there could be some struggles and some growing pains.

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Speaker 2: And this total is just forty one. This is expected

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Speaker 2: to be a low scoring game. And this is a

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Speaker 2: lot different than the situation Car has been in with

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Speaker 2: the Raiders. The Raiders have not finished higher than twentieth

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Speaker 2: in points per game since two thousand and six, which

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Speaker 2: means every year that Derek Carr's been there, they've been

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Speaker 2: a bad too very bad, too awful somewhere in that

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Speaker 2: range of a defense. And we know that is going

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Speaker 2: to inflate quarterback numbers like the volume.

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Speaker 1: So last year, for.

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Speaker 2: Example, Car only played four games with a total of

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Speaker 2: forty four or below. He averaged just two hundred sixteen

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Speaker 2: and a half passing yards, just one point three touchdowns

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Speaker 2: with one point three picks. And in his other eleven games,

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00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:01,960
Speaker 2: his passing yards rowse to two hundred and forty one

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Speaker 2: and a half, his touchdowns one point seven, his picks

303
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Speaker 2: point eight. So this is not a situation where you

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00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:12,520
Speaker 2: expect Car to really throw for volume, which means he

305
00:15:12,560 --> 00:15:14,560
Speaker 2: has to be efficient. And I still think this Titan

306
00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,560
Speaker 2: defense went healthy, which it was not last year, is

307
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Speaker 2: very good. You know, you got Simmons and company in

308
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Speaker 2: that front seven, you got Bayard on the back end,

309
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Speaker 2: like there's there's talent all over. Vrabels a great defensive

310
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Speaker 2: mind as well. So I don't think things are gonna

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Speaker 2: come really easy for Car. It's gonna be a low

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00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:36,840
Speaker 2: scoring game, and the quarterbacks tend to lose a snap

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Speaker 2: or two or three sometimes to taste some hill when

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Speaker 2: you're in New Orleans. So maybe they dial that back

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Speaker 2: a little bit. But until we see that, you know,

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Speaker 2: that's what they've been doing, so that that's another kind

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Speaker 2: of strike against Car. So all things considered, the Raiders,

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Speaker 2: even I mean, excuse me, the Saints, even though they're favored,

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Speaker 2: they're projected to score, you know, just about twenty two

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Speaker 2: to twenty three points, not really a lot of points.

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Speaker 2: So not really interested in a pocket passer, first game

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Speaker 2: in a new system, low scoring game. So Cars Q

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Speaker 2: twenty four for me.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, no, he was the guy I highlight as my

325
00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:19,240
Speaker 3: bust in that range because you know, he might still

326
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Speaker 3: end up putting up top twenty numbers just because he's

327
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Speaker 3: probably more likely to play seventeen games and all these

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Speaker 3: other quarterbacks because like you said, he's a pocket passer,

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Speaker 3: but he just has a low ceiling in this offense.

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Speaker 3: I guess there is some good news. You know, Taysom

331
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Speaker 3: Hill has been dealing with an oblique injury, so he

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00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:36,640
Speaker 3: might not play or be limited, and that does have

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00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,920
Speaker 3: an impact on Car's projection. It's slight, but like you said,

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Speaker 3: like he's he's going to be eating you know, goal

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Speaker 3: line snaps, red zone work, things like that, so that's

336
00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:47,680
Speaker 3: going to be annoying for car managers. But yeah, I

337
00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:49,160
Speaker 3: have him outside my top twenty as well.

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Speaker 2: All right, we'll start with you give me a quarterback prop.

339
00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,000
Speaker 3: Okay, well I already tipped my hand and hinted what

340
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Speaker 3: my projection is for this guy. But let's let's do it.

341
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Speaker 3: Let's go with Anthony Richardson total rushing yards against the

342
00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:07,200
Speaker 3: Jaguars in his debut. I mean, we're kind of in

343
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Speaker 3: alignment here, so I'm gonna let you just take the overrunner,

344
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Speaker 3: but I'm setting it at forty nine and a half.

345
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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go over. I have it at fifty.

346
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Speaker 2: But you know, I mentioned how I think the Jaguars

347
00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:21,320
Speaker 2: will be able to score some points. And you know,

348
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Speaker 2: if there was ever a time where Richardson was gonna

349
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Speaker 2: scramble more, it would be earlier in the season. I

350
00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:29,840
Speaker 2: think as he gets comfortable, he might start, you know,

351
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Speaker 2: going through his progressions more standing in the pocket and

352
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Speaker 2: throwing the ball down the field. But early on, I

353
00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:38,520
Speaker 2: think he's gonna take off at the first sign of pressure.

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Speaker 1: I think there's going.

355
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Speaker 2: To be a probably a half dozen designed rush attempts

356
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Speaker 2: and he only needs one. I mean, he could get

357
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Speaker 2: fifty on a one carry. So we're probably both a

358
00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:56,040
Speaker 2: little low honestly on Anthony Richardson's rushing rushing yardage. I

359
00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:58,840
Speaker 2: wouldn't be surprised to see the books, you know, post

360
00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:01,560
Speaker 2: like a fifty five or six even like yeah, I'm

361
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Speaker 2: gonna go over.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I think Books might be a little bit careful,

363
00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:10,280
Speaker 3: just in previous experiences. I feel like, remember Jalen Hurts,

364
00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:12,280
Speaker 3: I felt like the lines were always too low on him,

365
00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:14,679
Speaker 3: maybe justin fields as well. So is this is this

366
00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:17,520
Speaker 3: a prop you'll like be looking to attack once books

367
00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:20,640
Speaker 3: do post it? If it might if it's that, if.

368
00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:22,679
Speaker 2: It's that forty nine and a half, definitely, you know,

369
00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:25,200
Speaker 2: if it's in the mid fifties, you know, I see

370
00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:27,480
Speaker 2: how my projections kind of evolve as the week progresses.

371
00:18:27,560 --> 00:18:30,760
Speaker 2: But it is a situation where you know, I don't

372
00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:35,760
Speaker 2: usually like targeting overs, but a rookie quarterback where we

373
00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:40,360
Speaker 2: haven't really seen the rushing ceiling yet in the NFL,

374
00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:43,359
Speaker 2: you know, his like, I let's say it does open

375
00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:45,680
Speaker 2: at forty nine and a half or close at forty

376
00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:49,080
Speaker 2: nine and a half. Even that maybe the lowest number

377
00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:53,920
Speaker 2: it closes that all year. So yeah, I would probably

378
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:54,719
Speaker 2: be looking at that.

379
00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:55,840
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie.

380
00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:58,040
Speaker 2: I think that that that's a that isn't over. I

381
00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:00,199
Speaker 2: could I could get my quarterback. Injuries are all so

382
00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:02,400
Speaker 2: per game base is pretty rare.

383
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:06,359
Speaker 3: So yeah, no, I think just rookies in general investing early.

384
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:10,359
Speaker 3: I remember writing up I had Justin Jefferson over twenty

385
00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:11,840
Speaker 3: two and a half yards, and I kind of wrote,

386
00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:13,800
Speaker 3: this might be the last time we ever see a

387
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,440
Speaker 3: number this low for this guy. So I think if

388
00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:19,480
Speaker 3: you if you like a talent specifically, like you know,

389
00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:22,760
Speaker 3: rushing staff for Anthony Richardson, I think early in the season,

390
00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:25,600
Speaker 3: that's when you have to invest because it would not

391
00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:28,359
Speaker 3: shock me if he, you know, rips off seven yards

392
00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:30,720
Speaker 3: in his debut and then we'll never see a prop

393
00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:33,399
Speaker 3: below fifty again. But yeah, this is one I'll be

394
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:34,560
Speaker 3: looking to potentially bet.

395
00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:37,080
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to a running back who you

396
00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:37,760
Speaker 1: got top five?

397
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:42,399
Speaker 3: So I got Christian McCaffrey, Austin Eckler, Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb,

398
00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:44,360
Speaker 3: and b John Robinson.

399
00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:50,439
Speaker 2: I got Eckler, Chubb, Barkley, McCaffrey, and Derrick Henry is

400
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:54,520
Speaker 2: my Army six. But yeah, McCaffrey, is that coming quite

401
00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:57,160
Speaker 2: as high for me in terms of the In terms

402
00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,960
Speaker 2: of the raw projections right now, I still have him

403
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,720
Speaker 2: kind of you know, getting those fourteen fifteen carries, but

404
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,000
Speaker 2: but but seeding you know, given some to to Mitchell

405
00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:06,159
Speaker 2: and uh and Deebo.

406
00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:08,280
Speaker 1: So uh yeah, he's coming.

407
00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,680
Speaker 2: Out a little bit below some of these other guys

408
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,560
Speaker 2: who I just think are in maybe better matchups, a

409
00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:17,720
Speaker 2: little more touchdown equity. Obviously, McCaffrey's gonna get his, but uh,

410
00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:21,359
Speaker 2: San Francisco is minus two and a half. I believe

411
00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,000
Speaker 2: that Pittsburgh and the total is pretty low. So this

412
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 2: is one of San Francisco's lowest projected team totals that

413
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,680
Speaker 2: I can in recent Memoryeah he since they acquired McCaffrey.

414
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:35,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Well George Kittle might miss that.

415
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:39,480
Speaker 2: That might that part a little, but I had him

416
00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:42,800
Speaker 2: projected as like the lowest target per route run besides Jennings,

417
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:44,840
Speaker 2: So it's not going to affect him as much like

418
00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 2: McCaffrey at quite as much.

419
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 1: If Devo would have missed, I think it would affect.

420
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I think it's like Debo and Kittle probably

421
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 3: share the most targets. Like with McCaffrey. I just think

422
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:58,720
Speaker 3: that if Kittle is out, you know, my my projection

423
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 3: for McCaffrey's reception will go up a little bit. But yeah,

424
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,680
Speaker 3: it's it's definitely close up top for me. I've I've

425
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:07,879
Speaker 3: Eckler like point two, uh you know, points away. But

426
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 3: you know, Barkley has a tough matchup. Chubb has a

427
00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:14,800
Speaker 3: tougher matchup. So yeah, like the top guys this week,

428
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,760
Speaker 3: aren't none of them are like in a smash spot,

429
00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,120
Speaker 3: I would say, So it's very close up top.

430
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess that's why it's probably it's probably just

431
00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 2: coming down and like mostly touchdown equity and things like that.

432
00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,160
Speaker 2: But yeah, I might, I might actually flip flop Chubb

433
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:28,920
Speaker 2: and bark We I just it's you know, Chubb, I

434
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 2: don't know what's going on behind him. It's Ford and

435
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:33,480
Speaker 2: who they got strong. But this, I mean, this could

436
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:37,200
Speaker 2: be just a monster workload year for Chubb. So want

437
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 2: to kind of get ahead of that early in the year. Okay,

438
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 2: who is a back you are high on?

439
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna target this cult running back situation with

440
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor out, now I'm going with Deon Jackson. You know,

441
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,880
Speaker 3: I think for he's for desperate teams. If you're looking

442
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,399
Speaker 3: for a potential RB three flex option, hopefully that's not

443
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:00,919
Speaker 3: you if you're listening. I think Deon Jackson could have

444
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 3: a good Week one. You know, this will be a

445
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:07,119
Speaker 3: committee with Jackson, Zack Moss, and Evan Hole. But I

446
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 3: think for Week one specifically, Jackson should be the best

447
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 3: play of the group. You know, Zack Moss is coming

448
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 3: back from a broken arm, hasn't taken a hit yet,

449
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 3: so he could be limited early on, so that's going

450
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:20,879
Speaker 3: to lead to more early down work for Jackson. And

451
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 3: you know, rookie Evan Hole is a good pass catching back,

452
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:27,600
Speaker 3: but he really struggled with pass protection preseason. He had

453
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:31,960
Speaker 3: four pass protection blocks and allowed two pressures, so I

454
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:34,919
Speaker 3: don't know if the coaching staff will trust him in

455
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 3: pass protection week one. And Deon Jackson has shown that he's,

456
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 3: you know, capable of that. He's had some good stat

457
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 3: lines in the past six eight receptions in a couple

458
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,960
Speaker 3: of games last year, so I think Deon Jackson could

459
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:48,479
Speaker 3: be a sneaky RB three flex option for people that

460
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:51,720
Speaker 3: I don't know you drafted, like Alvin Kamara, Breies Hall,

461
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 3: guys like that, that might be a little bit shaky.

462
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 3: He's a potential play for you if you're in a

463
00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 3: desperate situation. So I'm a bit higher. I have him,

464
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 3: let me see them like RB thirty eight, and I

465
00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 3: think his east are still in the fifties. So yeah,

466
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:07,399
Speaker 3: he's one of the guys. I'm the highest one.

467
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 2: How many total yards are you projecting roughly for for Jackson?

468
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:17,679
Speaker 3: Not much. Let's see, I have him right around thirty

469
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:20,680
Speaker 3: rushing yards and you know fifteen receiving yards. Being the

470
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:24,159
Speaker 3: pass catching back and the Colts offense isn't really a

471
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 3: good thing. But he should see enough work to you know,

472
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,680
Speaker 3: he could get two or three receptions. Like I said,

473
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 3: he should still see the most rush attempts as well.

474
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 3: I really do think Moss is gonna be limited. So

475
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,919
Speaker 3: I think you could see eight to ten carries and

476
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 3: for week one, you know that that is good enough

477
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 3: to kind of sneak you into the RB three flex discussion.

478
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 2: Right yeah, after you know, after those top you know,

479
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:49,199
Speaker 2: thirty thirty two, thirty three backs, couple of committees.

480
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, it starts getting dicey really quick. You're most of

481
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,399
Speaker 1: your line on backups. So if Jackson is gonna lead.

482
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 2: And I think Jacksonville again is going to be able

483
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,439
Speaker 2: to score some points. So even if Moss gets the

484
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 2: nominal start, Jacksonville much better in run defense than past

485
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 2: defense a year ago, and Jacksonville also the favorite, so

486
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:15,359
Speaker 2: game script should tilt in Jackson's direction at some point

487
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 2: in the game. So yeah, I think Jackson will be

488
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 2: the top scorer in that backfield as well. I'm going

489
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 2: with my guy, Alexander Madison. I have him RB ten.

490
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 2: He's the consensus RB twenty. He averaged one hundred and

491
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:33,400
Speaker 2: twelve scrimmage yards on twenty three touches per game in

492
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:36,879
Speaker 2: six starts over the past three seasons.

493
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 1: And Tampa Bay they.

494
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,920
Speaker 2: Had a reputation is a great run defense, but last

495
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 2: year four point four to four yards per carry allowed

496
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:49,440
Speaker 2: to running backs a little bit above the league average.

497
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,880
Speaker 1: And I've talked about this before.

498
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 2: One of the reasons I like Madison in season long

499
00:24:55,680 --> 00:25:00,520
Speaker 2: is because the Vikings have made a commitment to operating

500
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 2: out of more heavy personnel. This year, they signed Josh

501
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:06,160
Speaker 2: Aliver tight end blocking tight end to a big contract.

502
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:07,680
Speaker 2: They extended their fullback CJ.

503
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 3: Ham.

504
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:10,840
Speaker 1: So I think there's going to be more two wide

505
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:12,920
Speaker 1: sets and less three wide sets this year for the

506
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 1: Vikings and Tampa Bay against designed runs out of two

507
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 1: wide receiver sets twenty seventh in EPA per rush on defense,

508
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 1: twenty fifth in success rates. So that was Tampa Bay's

509
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 1: weakness last year, and that makes sense. You know a

510
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 1: lot of these teams, you know, they have a couple

511
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 1: of good guys up front, but if you can kind

512
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 1: of get some heavier personnel in the lineup yourself, you

513
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 1: can kind of wead block it and run away from

514
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 1: those guys. So I do think Minnesota will be able

515
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 1: to have some success their six point favorites at home.

516
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 1: You always love home favorite running backs. So I think

517
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 1: Madison has good touchdown equity even if he doesn't run

518
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:55,240
Speaker 1: for efficiency because the Bucks defense does hold him in check.

519
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 1: So I like the you know, the potential for the workload,

520
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,760
Speaker 1: I like the matchup, and I like the touchdown equity

521
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 1: for Madison.

522
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I wasn't as high on Madison as you,

523
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 3: but I mean his ECR at RB twenty right now

524
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 3: is kind of ridiculous. So I'm I'm much higher as well.

525
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 3: I have him RB twelve. But you know, a lot

526
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,640
Speaker 3: of his potential competition that he was expected to see

527
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,239
Speaker 3: aren't even on the active roster heading into week one.

528
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:23,359
Speaker 3: You know, they cut rookie Dwayne McBride. You know, Cana

529
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 3: Nwango's on the IR so all they have is tight

530
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 3: Chandler and Miles Gaskin, who will probably eat into his

531
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:33,200
Speaker 3: you know, Madison's receiving work. But you know, six and

532
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 3: a half point home favorites this week, it's going to

533
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,479
Speaker 3: be a big Madison game. So yeah, I'm treating him

534
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 3: as a low end RB one as well.

535
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:41,919
Speaker 2: I'm actually hearing they want to get Madison more involved

536
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 2: in the receiving game than Cook was, Like they want

537
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:46,120
Speaker 2: to they want to use a lot of screens.

538
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 1: Like, I think this offense is going to surprise people.

539
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 2: It's not going to look exactly the same as they

540
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 2: did last year, and I think it's going to surprise

541
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:53,880
Speaker 2: some people.

542
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:57,879
Speaker 1: But who is a running back? You are or a

543
00:26:58,000 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 1: couple of backs?

544
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 3: Looks say you are low on, Yeah, have a couple

545
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 3: of backs, you know. The first one is Damien Pierce,

546
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 3: who I was pretty excited about just based on his

547
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,119
Speaker 3: preseason usage, but you know, it was looking like he

548
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 3: might be more of a workhorse back than even I expected.

549
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 3: But there's been some reporting that that could have been misleading,

550
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 3: that we might actually see like Devin Singletary or even

551
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 3: dari A Boom, holy crap handle most of the passing

552
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 3: done work. So you know, the fact that the Texans

553
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,679
Speaker 3: are a nine point road dog against the Ravens doesn't

554
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:32,399
Speaker 3: bow well for Pierce's Week one projection, you know, because

555
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 3: They're probably gonna be trailing most of the game. So

556
00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 3: I just be careful with him. You know, I have

557
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 3: him as my RB twenty seven ECRs RB twenty one,

558
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:41,959
Speaker 3: but I don't think he's a slam duck RB two

559
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:44,200
Speaker 3: this week. I think, you know, in better matchups he

560
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 3: could be. But this week I'm being very cautious with

561
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 3: him in his projection because there could be, you know,

562
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 3: more of a committee than we anticipated. And the other

563
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:55,199
Speaker 3: guy I'm pretty low on is Isaiah Pacheco just out

564
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 3: of the gate because you know, he's a back that

565
00:27:57,400 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 3: we could see a slower start since he missed most

566
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:03,479
Speaker 3: of camp most of the preseason recovering from his shoulder surgery,

567
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 3: so would not be shocked if the Chiefs limit his

568
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 3: workload this week specifically. You know, obviously Jerk McKinnon will

569
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 3: handle most of the passing network, but Kaid Edwards Hilaire

570
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:16,119
Speaker 3: is active and healthy, and you know he's clearly the

571
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 3: number three back, But I think we might see a

572
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 3: little bit more of him the first couple weeks while

573
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 3: Pacheco gets up to speed. So he's just a guy

574
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 3: that I'd be careful with. He could get off to

575
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 3: the slower start. He's my RB thirty to begin the week,

576
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 3: and Estar has him RB twenty four.

577
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:35,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, and remember you've got Matt Neggy returning to Casey

578
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 2: a new offensive coordinator, So just the whole kind of

579
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 2: rotation could change a little bit. You know, it's been

580
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 2: the enemy for the last what five six years, Nagi

581
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 2: hasn't been there since twenty seventeen, so that's also something

582
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 2: to watch. So yeah, I think it makes sense to

583
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 2: be a little conservative with I think Pacheco and McKinnon

584
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 2: because I do think from what it looks like, Edwards

585
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 2: d Waire probably will be a factor in the rotation

586
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 2: at least to start the year, which wasn't really the

587
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 2: case down the stretch to end last year where he

588
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 2: essentially just got benched even when he was.

589
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:12,600
Speaker 1: For me, it's Sean Penny.

590
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 2: He's the RB thirty nine in ECR, and I have

591
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:20,480
Speaker 2: him outside of the top fifty. I just don't see

592
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 2: the matchup being particularly great for him. The Patriots allowed

593
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 2: the fourth lowest yard per carry average to opposing backs

594
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 2: last year, just over three point eight yards per carry

595
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 2: to running backs, and Philadelphia running backs average just under

596
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 2: twenty two carries per game. But we're hearing Gainwell is

597
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 2: gonna see it uptick this year. We're here in Swift

598
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 2: is still going to be the top back, and Penny

599
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 2: was essentially just a low risk, you know, cheap one

600
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 2: year flyer. So I'm guessing, you know, my projection anyway

601
00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 2: has him third in line for snaps in week one.

602
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 2: He doesn't really offer much in the passing game, so

603
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 2: he's probably going to need you know, ten plus carries

604
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 2: and you know, to to to start seeing some value.

605
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 2: And I just don't know if we can project them

606
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 2: from more than you know, six to eight carries until

607
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 2: we get more more certainty. Probably nothing in the past

608
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 2: game against a tough matchup on the road. So you know,

609
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 2: Penny for me is you know, kind of a wait

610
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 2: and see if I drafted him, if I can help it.

611
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 2: I am not starting him as a flex or anything

612
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 2: like that. I'm just kind of using week one as

613
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 2: a wait and see to get a better sense of

614
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 2: that rotation which might which might change week to week

615
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 2: as it is. But either way, I don't think this

616
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 2: is a great great spot for him here in week one.

617
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:49,840
Speaker 2: I think it's Swift and then gain Well, you know,

618
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 2: as as a one to two punch, and those guys

619
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 2: give you more in the past game, and everyone's playing

620
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 2: you know, half PPR full PPR these days, so I

621
00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 2: think Penny probably needs a touchdown to give you any

622
00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 2: type of value this week. And that's you know, that's

623
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:06,640
Speaker 2: tough to kind of project when you're potentially the third

624
00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 2: back through the lineup.

625
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'd be careful with all Eagles backs

626
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 3: week one. I've been hearing, you know, Kenny Gainwell could

627
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 3: take over the Miles Sanders role from last year and

628
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,280
Speaker 3: Downdres Swift could take over the Kinney Gamewell role from

629
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 3: last year. So just hearing a lot of things. This

630
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 3: is a situation where once we have a full game

631
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 3: of data, you and I can make better conclusions and

632
00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 3: project them, but right now we're just throwing darts. So

633
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:32,240
Speaker 3: I think even Swift and gainwell, specifically, you can't trust either,

634
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 3: especially not Penny. It doesn't seems like Penny's more of

635
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 3: just like the injury upside back up at this point,

636
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 3: it doesn't seem like he's going to see that many

637
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:41,800
Speaker 3: touches a week one, So I'm with you there as well.

638
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 2: All right, let's uh, let's go to our running back

639
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 2: prop and I got a fun one for you. I'm

640
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 2: gonna go Breese Hall versus Dalvin Cook rushing yards who give?

641
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 1: Will give Dalvin a half.

642
00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:01,320
Speaker 2: A yard just so there's no ties, oh Man, Dalvin

643
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 2: Cook plus half a rushing yard versus Bristol who has I.

644
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 3: Have Brestall with one more rushing yard. So this is

645
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:09,200
Speaker 3: a good one, perfect line. I'll take.

646
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 1: I'll take Dalvin.

647
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:12,959
Speaker 3: I don't love this. I'll take the Dolvin because I'm

648
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 3: rooting for brees Hall's, you know, under nine hundred rushing yards.

649
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 3: If anything, they brought Dalvin into like specifically limit bris

650
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 3: Halt early in the season, so I think there is

651
00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 3: a chance Dalvin sees more touches out of the gate.

652
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 3: I know Dalvin was banged up, but they probably don't

653
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 3: care about his long term value, so I'll go with

654
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 3: Dalvin here. I think they are going to try to

655
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 3: limit Brisol at least for the first couple games. I

656
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 3: think he's the more talented back, but let's let's go

657
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:42,959
Speaker 3: with Dalvin here.

658
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's tough.

659
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna project him around the same amount of snaps.

660
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 2: I heard a quote from one of the Jet coaches saying,

661
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 2: essentially we have them on the same plan. Like, you know,

662
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 2: Dalvin was missing time and I think he just had

663
00:32:57,600 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 2: a kid or something, and then obviously Breeze coming off

664
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 2: the injury, so they both kind of need to get

665
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 2: up to speeds. So I wouldn't be surprised to see

666
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 2: the snaps fairly even now.

667
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 1: Breece. You expect him to be a little more efficient,

668
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 1: but he's also.

669
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 2: Coming back from injury, so it is it's a very

670
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,640
Speaker 2: interesting h I think it's an interesting projection.

671
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 3: Briece will probably see more receiving work too. I think

672
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 3: that's why i'd probably give you the slight, ever so

673
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 3: slightest edge to Dalvin here.

674
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 1: How many carries do you have them each?

675
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 3: I have both ten. Yeah, it's about right throughout the week,

676
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 3: I will be updating that. So right now I've tied

677
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 3: at ten. Like you said, Breece is the more efficient one,

678
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 3: but I'm thinking he does get limited the most.

679
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 2: Also not the easiest matchup Buffalo, right, Yeah, so yeah,

680
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 2: those guys are both kind of right around that low

681
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 2: twenties of high thirties for me in terms of overall

682
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:55,000
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00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:46,400
Speaker 1: Who got in your top five? S?

729
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:53,200
Speaker 3: I got Justin Jefferson obviously, and then Tyreek Hill, Jamar Chase,

730
00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 3: Aman Ross Saint Brown and then Stefan Diggs as always

731
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 3: in my top five. It seems like Stefan Diggs is

732
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:01,440
Speaker 3: always my number fives, right?

733
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 2: I actually funny enough, I have to say, well, I

734
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:10,360
Speaker 2: have Jefferson, Chase Hill, a'mon Rossin Brown, but I have

735
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:14,360
Speaker 2: Ceedee Lamb as my number five over digs only because

736
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:18,320
Speaker 2: that you know that Sauce Gardner dj Reed matchup little

737
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 2: little worries me a little bit more than Dory and

738
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:24,640
Speaker 2: company in the in the rookies in.

739
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 1: That giant matchup. Who are you high on?

740
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 3: I'm high on Cortland Sutton against the Raiders. You know,

741
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 3: after the Tim Patrick and Jerry Judy injuries. He's up

742
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 3: to my wide receiver twenty right now? Is still oh

743
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:43,279
Speaker 3: maybe I am high wide receiver thirty one, which it

744
00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 3: seems low right now. You know last year, not only

745
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:48,879
Speaker 3: did you know Sutton see an increase in target chair

746
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:52,279
Speaker 3: with Judy out obviously, but his efficiency went up to

747
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 3: you know, his yards per target were six point five

748
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:57,320
Speaker 3: with Judy on the field. With Judy off the field

749
00:37:57,560 --> 00:38:01,880
Speaker 3: shot up to nine point four yards per so weeks

750
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 3: ten through twelve when Judy was out. Last year, you know,

751
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:07,439
Speaker 3: Sutton was the wide receiver twenty four despite not even

752
00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 3: scoring a touchdown. So if he was able to do

753
00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:13,880
Speaker 3: that with last year's version of Russe Wilson, if we

754
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 3: see any sort of bounce back with Russ Wilson this

755
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:19,560
Speaker 3: year under Sean Payton, you know, Cam suck Sutton will

756
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 3: be you know, no brainer top twenty receiver for me.

757
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 3: So you know, he had five catches for rady yards

758
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:29,279
Speaker 3: last year against the Raiders, easy matchup again this year,

759
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:31,919
Speaker 3: so I view him as like a legit wide receiver

760
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 3: two option this week. And my other guy is Zay Jones.

761
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:38,439
Speaker 3: I feel like I was essentially the Za Jones truther

762
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 3: last year and I'm sticking with him this year. Seems

763
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 3: like he's being overlooked because I mean, I agree, I

764
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:46,359
Speaker 3: think his target chair will go down with a guy

765
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 3: like Calvin Ridley now being injected in this offense. But

766
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 3: you know, based on preseason usage, uh, it was Christian

767
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:56,880
Speaker 3: Kirkhu's coming off the field in two wide sets, so

768
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 3: you know we could see z Jones still average around

769
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:02,840
Speaker 3: a ninety routes round rate in an elite passing attack.

770
00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:06,919
Speaker 3: So especially facing this cult secondary, which is it could

771
00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 3: be one of the worst in the league, especially to

772
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 3: begin the season. Uh, this is a sneaky spot for

773
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:14,840
Speaker 3: all Jags receivers, but even Zay Jones. So he's my

774
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 3: wide receiver forty two to begin the week, and it

775
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 3: looks like ECR has him outside of the top fifties,

776
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 3: so I'm investing a lot in Za Jones and best

777
00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:24,800
Speaker 3: ball and stuff. So I like him as like a

778
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:27,120
Speaker 3: sneaky wide receiver for option and deeper leagues.

779
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:30,080
Speaker 1: What do you have projected for Sutton?

780
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:37,440
Speaker 3: I have Sutton at around four and a half catches

781
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 3: for sixty yards.

782
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:41,279
Speaker 1: Oh that's yeah.

783
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:42,200
Speaker 3: How do you have him?

784
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 1: I have him.

785
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:47,400
Speaker 2: I think I'm closer to fifty yards and like just

786
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:51,720
Speaker 2: under four catches. I'm still kind of projecting this Bronco

787
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:54,320
Speaker 2: offense a little bit conservative because I just don't know

788
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:56,800
Speaker 2: exactly what it's going to look like. I wasn't thrilled

789
00:39:56,920 --> 00:40:02,360
Speaker 2: with how Russ looked and the Raiders they do have

790
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 2: Peters who they didn't have last year, so it's a

791
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 2: little different of a matchup. But you have them three

792
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 2: point eight for fifty one, so about four for four

793
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:13,879
Speaker 2: for fifty give or take.

794
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think just like the dude obviously, you know,

795
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 3: if Judy's out, that's that's why I'm projecting this. But

796
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:21,799
Speaker 3: even just you know, like Adam Troutman playing a lot

797
00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:25,480
Speaker 3: more than I expected, is bumping up Sutton's you know,

798
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:27,840
Speaker 3: target share especially on early downs, Like who else is

799
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:31,400
Speaker 3: Russ gonna throw it to? So I think when Dulstch

800
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 3: is off the field, that's going to only help Sutton.

801
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 3: You know, Javonte is gonna be eased in. So just

802
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:39,799
Speaker 3: I'm just getting a massive target share for Sutton. I'm

803
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:43,080
Speaker 3: even including like I think Lil Jordan Humphrey and our

804
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:46,920
Speaker 3: boy Michael Bandy might be on the active roster right now.

805
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:50,160
Speaker 3: They only have three healthy receivers. You know, Brandon Johnson's

806
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 3: gonna ton of playing time. Marvin Men's is more of

807
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:56,560
Speaker 3: a low target percentage, just high, a doc kind of guy.

808
00:40:56,680 --> 00:40:59,480
Speaker 3: So I'm just getting a ship ton of targets for

809
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 3: land Sutton. So that's that's why I have him so high.

810
00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:07,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're definitely gonna probably call up at least one

811
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:08,240
Speaker 2: one receiver.

812
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know if it'll be Bannedy. I thought

813
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:12,759
Speaker 1: I saw him get released, but he might be back

814
00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:13,120
Speaker 1: on the track.

815
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 3: I don't know. Back on I think the idea was

816
00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:18,360
Speaker 3: like Humphrey and or Bandy gets called up.

817
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:21,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I know Dorsett and Sills are there too,

818
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:24,080
Speaker 2: but yeah, somebody's probably gonna get called not that they're

819
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:25,200
Speaker 2: gonna play much.

820
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:26,800
Speaker 3: For me.

821
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:30,799
Speaker 2: I'm high on Van Jefferson. He's the wide receiver fifty six.

822
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 2: I have him in the mid thirties.

823
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:32,360
Speaker 3: I'm not.

824
00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:34,920
Speaker 2: You know, they're saying Cooper Cup's not gonna play or

825
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:39,719
Speaker 2: he's unlikely, and that essentially makes Van Jefferson the number.

826
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 1: One receiver for the Rams. He was the number one

827
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:44,920
Speaker 1: receiver for the Rams.

828
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:48,359
Speaker 2: From Week twelve on last year because Alan Robinson went

829
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:51,360
Speaker 2: down couples already out and he ran a route on

830
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:54,600
Speaker 2: ninety eight percent of the dropbacks. So now he's got

831
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:58,640
Speaker 2: Matthew Stafford, so you know, it's not just was Mayfield

832
00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 2: and Wolford and essentially he's nobody's that quarterback.

833
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 1: So the numbers should be better.

834
00:42:04,680 --> 00:42:04,839
Speaker 3: Though.

835
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:07,680
Speaker 2: He did two of those games when he was the

836
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:10,280
Speaker 2: number one receiver did come against Seattle and he averaged

837
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:14,279
Speaker 2: fifty eight receiving yards per game, which is pretty good

838
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:18,719
Speaker 2: regardless of anything. So I think he has a chance

839
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:21,279
Speaker 2: to put up some some pretty decent numbers this week.

840
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:23,920
Speaker 2: I do expect the Rams are gonna have to throw

841
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:25,920
Speaker 2: a lot because again, that.

842
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:28,799
Speaker 1: Defense just misses so many pieces week one.

843
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 2: You expect them to have some growing pay and some miscommunications,

844
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 2: so I'm expecting the Rams to have to play catch

845
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 2: up at some point in this game. So like Van

846
00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:42,200
Speaker 2: Jefferson as a guy who's going to be on the

847
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:46,279
Speaker 2: field pretty much every snap and not expecting Cooper Cup

848
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:46,839
Speaker 2: to play.

849
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:50,080
Speaker 1: From everything I've heard, Yeah, yeah, no, I love.

850
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 3: Van Jefferson heading into the season, even Cooper Cup was

851
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 3: fully healthy. I have a ton of shares of him.

852
00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:58,839
Speaker 3: You know, it's gonna be probably tougher to trust them

853
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 3: week one, but certainly you have to add him because

854
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:05,160
Speaker 3: Cooper Cup could miss you know, multiple games. This is

855
00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 3: not looking good, especially just a hamstring injury. How easy

856
00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 3: that can you know get reaggravated. So they're gonna be

857
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 3: very careful. So yeah, Van Jefferson could be the Rams

858
00:43:16,120 --> 00:43:18,960
Speaker 3: top receiver for you know, the first month. So definitely

859
00:43:19,040 --> 00:43:21,200
Speaker 3: add him in like any league that he's available right now.

860
00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:23,320
Speaker 1: Who are you low on?

861
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:27,520
Speaker 3: I'm low on Deontay Johnson against the Niners. I know

862
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:30,400
Speaker 3: everybody you know, including me, is excited about the Steelers

863
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:33,200
Speaker 3: offense this year. After you know, Kenny Pickett led them

864
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 3: to five touchdown drives and they're only five you know,

865
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:38,480
Speaker 3: possessions in the preseason, but you know they have a

866
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 3: brutal Week one matchup against the Niners. You know, I

867
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:46,000
Speaker 3: would just lower my expectations for Deionta Oa the gate.

868
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:48,640
Speaker 3: I have him as my wide receiver thirty seven. ECR

869
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:50,959
Speaker 3: has him a lot higher like wide receiver twenty seven.

870
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 3: I think out of the two Pittsburgh receivers, i'd be

871
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 3: higher on George Pickens this week. You know, the Niners

872
00:43:56,600 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 3: are a more physical team and a guy like him

873
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 3: that you know, he's excels and contested catches. I think

874
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:04,640
Speaker 3: he could be the better play here. But Deontay I'm

875
00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 3: gonna be a little bit careful with Week one based

876
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:09,640
Speaker 3: on the matchup. So he's just outside my wide receiver

877
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 3: three range.

878
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:13,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have him in the mid thirties as well,

879
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:15,760
Speaker 2: And yeah, he is wide receiver twenty seven in ECR.

880
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:18,840
Speaker 2: I think that is he's a spot above Brandon Ayuka.

881
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:24,359
Speaker 2: I would definitely rather rather especially yeah, especially if Kittle's out.

882
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 1: But there's a number of receivers.

883
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:28,600
Speaker 2: Again, you know, you're just kind of looking at the

884
00:44:28,719 --> 00:44:32,799
Speaker 2: overall potential game script and this total is what forty one,

885
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:37,680
Speaker 2: forty two, you know, just not expected to be much

886
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:39,960
Speaker 2: offense here. I think, you know, we know the way

887
00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:43,200
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh likes to play at home and Mike Tomlin and

888
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 2: you know it's gonna be a it's gonna be a

889
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:50,560
Speaker 2: rah rah spot. So yeah, just this seems like both

890
00:44:50,640 --> 00:44:54,960
Speaker 2: teams gonna run the ball. Uh So, not not high

891
00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 2: in Deonta either. For me, it's a it's Jordan Addison

892
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:00,800
Speaker 2: and I know you that's this is your boy. But

893
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 2: I think wide receiver thirty five is a bit high

894
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 2: for week one. You know, we do expect Addison to

895
00:45:07,480 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 2: to get better as the season progresses, but at least

896
00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:12,760
Speaker 2: in week one, you know, Minnesota is a six point favorite,

897
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:16,279
Speaker 2: so you're not expecting a super heavy pass script and

898
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:19,080
Speaker 2: he's going to open the year as a number three

899
00:45:19,120 --> 00:45:23,240
Speaker 2: wide receiver behind Osbourne. Kind of mentioned I do expect

900
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:28,200
Speaker 2: a few more two tight ends, two running back sets,

901
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:31,360
Speaker 2: so that could take a few snaps away from the

902
00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:34,399
Speaker 2: number three wide receiver. So, you know, top thirty six

903
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:36,920
Speaker 2: in week one I think is a little too rich.

904
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:40,200
Speaker 2: I would have him, you know, closer to you know,

905
00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 2: the low forties, high fifties range to start and then

906
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:46,280
Speaker 2: we'll kind of see, you know, how much he plays

907
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:48,480
Speaker 2: in week one and kind of go from there.

908
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:50,200
Speaker 1: But I would I would I would not.

909
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 2: Want to start Addison in week one in this projected

910
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 2: game script, you know, as a top as a as

911
00:45:58,200 --> 00:46:00,080
Speaker 2: a wide receiver, three, I'd be looking out square. I

912
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:05,200
Speaker 2: think there are matchups, they're just better matchups and guys

913
00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:10,400
Speaker 2: who have more concrete playing time ahead of week one

914
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:11,160
Speaker 2: than Addison.

915
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:14,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you know, I'm high on Jordan Edison

916
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 3: as a talent, But yeah, I agree out of the gate,

917
00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:20,320
Speaker 3: wouldn't expect much, especially it does look like Osborne is

918
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 3: the number two receivers, so he's gonna have to leapfrog him.

919
00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:27,960
Speaker 3: But we have to remember justin Jefferson, who's dealing with

920
00:46:28,120 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 3: Olbisi Johnson getting more snaps out of the gate early on,

921
00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 3: and then obviously he overtook him. But a lot of

922
00:46:34,320 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 3: these rookie receivers, especially this season, I think we'll be

923
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:39,320
Speaker 3: off to a slow start. So yeah, Addison's outside my

924
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:41,560
Speaker 3: top forty. But by the end of the season I

925
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:43,840
Speaker 3: think you and I might be ranking him in the

926
00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:46,399
Speaker 3: top thirty five at some point, but not week one.

927
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:50,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is just it's some of these rankers.

928
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:53,880
Speaker 1: I think they're just marrowing, mirroring. Excuse me.

929
00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:57,759
Speaker 2: The season long ranks a little bit too closely, you know,

930
00:46:57,920 --> 00:47:02,040
Speaker 2: not really factoring in potential playing time, matchup things like

931
00:47:02,120 --> 00:47:05,120
Speaker 2: that ahead a week one. So I know we don't

932
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:06,919
Speaker 2: have a lot of data as far as that goes,

933
00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:09,640
Speaker 2: but we do know some things and we can kind

934
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:12,080
Speaker 2: of project. So I do think you want to be

935
00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:16,839
Speaker 2: careful with some of these guys. But who is going

936
00:47:16,920 --> 00:47:19,120
Speaker 2: to be your wide receiver problem.

937
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:21,719
Speaker 3: Let's go with the guy that I think. It's been

938
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:24,360
Speaker 3: interesting how little talk there's been to this guy. It

939
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:26,319
Speaker 3: looked like he was going to be a future Hall

940
00:47:26,320 --> 00:47:28,839
Speaker 3: of Famer, but due to injuries, he hasn't played much

941
00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 3: the past few seasons. Right now, he's fully healthy. So

942
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:36,320
Speaker 3: let me hear what you're projecting for Michael Thomas receiving

943
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:39,960
Speaker 3: yards against the Titans this week. I found this one

944
00:47:40,080 --> 00:47:43,279
Speaker 3: really tricky to set, but right now I have his

945
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:45,399
Speaker 3: overrunner around forty three and a half.

946
00:47:46,920 --> 00:47:51,040
Speaker 1: Oh, I have him closer to forty eight median, So

947
00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to go over. Yeah, I mean Thomas,

948
00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:55,600
Speaker 1: a healthy Thomas.

949
00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:58,000
Speaker 2: You know, I'm not expecting a ton like I said

950
00:47:58,040 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 2: from Derek Carr, but healthy Thomas should still be able

951
00:48:01,600 --> 00:48:04,360
Speaker 2: to catch, you know, like four or five balls in

952
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:07,479
Speaker 2: his game and and get close, you know, get around

953
00:48:07,520 --> 00:48:09,839
Speaker 2: fifty yards. So yeah, I'll go over. I think forty

954
00:48:09,920 --> 00:48:12,279
Speaker 2: that's pretty conservative. I think I think forty three and

955
00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:13,719
Speaker 2: a half that because that's what like three and a

956
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:14,320
Speaker 2: half catches.

957
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:16,319
Speaker 1: I guess you have Matt, I have.

958
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:19,920
Speaker 3: Him run four. Oh he's a guy, right, Yeah, so

959
00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:23,640
Speaker 3: but yeah, like he looked great in preseason. It would

960
00:48:23,680 --> 00:48:26,439
Speaker 3: not shock me. I kind of wish you took the under.

961
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:28,920
Speaker 3: I probably should have set this little higher, but it

962
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:30,560
Speaker 3: would shock me if that's one of the storylines a

963
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:33,239
Speaker 3: week one, Like, hey, we forgot about Michael Thomas. He's

964
00:48:33,280 --> 00:48:36,759
Speaker 3: still pretty good when healthy. So it's just amazing, just

965
00:48:36,800 --> 00:48:39,200
Speaker 3: how little. I mean we're both guilty of it too.

966
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:41,200
Speaker 3: We haven't talked about it much, but yeah, week one,

967
00:48:41,960 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 3: I mean, he looks one hundred percent healthy, so he

968
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:45,719
Speaker 3: could start off hot.

969
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the last season, what do you do.

970
00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 2: He averaged fifty seven and in the three games he

971
00:48:51,600 --> 00:48:56,480
Speaker 2: did play, so you know that's h and yeah he

972
00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:59,520
Speaker 2: got over he got fifty seven, sixty five and then

973
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:04,080
Speaker 2: forty nine in the game he got hurt, So yeah,

974
00:49:04,120 --> 00:49:05,520
Speaker 2: he was over that. He was over forty three and

975
00:49:05,520 --> 00:49:09,799
Speaker 2: a half in all the games, so you know, could

976
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:13,319
Speaker 2: be offensive a different, different quarterback, but yeah, I feel

977
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 2: pretty good about him getting over the forty three and

978
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:15,319
Speaker 2: a half.

979
00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:18,759
Speaker 1: All right, let's finish it out with tight end. Who

980
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 1: you got top five?

981
00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 3: Well, right now, I have Travis Kelcey number one, but

982
00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:26,120
Speaker 3: obviously that looks like, uh, you know, he's gonna miss

983
00:49:26,239 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 3: this week. Then I have Mark Andrews, TJ. Howkinson, Tyler

984
00:49:30,000 --> 00:49:33,200
Speaker 3: Higbee and yeah, Tyler Higby number four, and Darren Waller.

985
00:49:34,160 --> 00:49:34,560
Speaker 3: I love it.

986
00:49:34,920 --> 00:49:37,560
Speaker 2: I got Yeah, Kelsey's my number one as well, but

987
00:49:37,960 --> 00:49:41,400
Speaker 2: I'll give you the top five without him, Mark Andrews,

988
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:43,359
Speaker 2: Darren Waller, TJ.

989
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:48,800
Speaker 1: Hockinson, Dallas Goddard, uh and and Tyler Higbee. So Higbee

990
00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:50,839
Speaker 1: is my essentially five.

991
00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:53,480
Speaker 2: If Kelsea doesn't play, and he's like four, so here

992
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:55,399
Speaker 2: we are, well really here three?

993
00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:56,279
Speaker 1: He'd be here three?

994
00:49:56,680 --> 00:50:00,520
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I have Kittle tight end six. He might

995
00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:04,239
Speaker 3: not play, so Evan Ingram could be in my top

996
00:50:04,320 --> 00:50:06,279
Speaker 3: five by the end of the week. So it could

997
00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:07,960
Speaker 3: be a fun week at tight end. I mean, we

998
00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:10,000
Speaker 3: have a couple of studs that look like, you know,

999
00:50:10,480 --> 00:50:12,399
Speaker 3: they're not going to play week one, so it could

1000
00:50:12,440 --> 00:50:14,759
Speaker 3: be a crazy opening week at tight end. It's going

1001
00:50:14,800 --> 00:50:17,919
Speaker 3: to be important, you know, the streamers tight end this week.

1002
00:50:17,920 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 3: There's a lot of options out there. It's going to

1003
00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:21,920
Speaker 3: be important week to be making those decisions.

1004
00:50:22,640 --> 00:50:26,560
Speaker 2: Or maybe I mean, I guess Hageby was not always

1005
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:29,200
Speaker 2: going in the top twelve, so maybe somebody, yeah that

1006
00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:31,719
Speaker 2: should he shouldn't be.

1007
00:50:31,840 --> 00:50:34,160
Speaker 1: But I'm sure he is in at least a few weeks,

1008
00:50:34,560 --> 00:50:36,920
Speaker 1: so be sure to scoop him. But who are you

1009
00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 1: high on?

1010
00:50:39,000 --> 00:50:41,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, besides him, Yeah, I'm obviously high on him, But

1011
00:50:41,400 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 3: I'll go with IRV Smith. He could be a sneaky,

1012
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 3: you know, streaming option this week. He's my tight end thirteen,

1013
00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:49,359
Speaker 3: believe or not to open the week. ECR has him

1014
00:50:49,480 --> 00:50:51,960
Speaker 3: tight end twenty two. But you know he's expected to

1015
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:54,920
Speaker 3: replace the Hayden Hurst role from last year, and you

1016
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:58,760
Speaker 3: know IRV Smith is fully healthy. He's still a talented

1017
00:50:58,920 --> 00:51:02,200
Speaker 3: former second round pick in his prime at twenty five,

1018
00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:04,720
Speaker 3: so he could start off hot. You know, he'll probably

1019
00:51:04,760 --> 00:51:07,520
Speaker 3: be Joe Burrow's number three, number four option this week,

1020
00:51:07,560 --> 00:51:09,839
Speaker 3: but that's still good to have in your tight ends

1021
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 3: a lot, especially if if you're one of the managers

1022
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:16,080
Speaker 3: you know that have Kelsey or Kittle, and you don't

1023
00:51:16,120 --> 00:51:18,480
Speaker 3: have access to Tyler Higbee. You know, IRV Smith is

1024
00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:21,759
Speaker 3: one of the names i'd consider just because you want

1025
00:51:21,840 --> 00:51:24,239
Speaker 3: some you know, share of this Bengals offense and he's

1026
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:26,640
Speaker 3: a cheap way to get in there. So I'm pretty

1027
00:51:26,680 --> 00:51:28,279
Speaker 3: high on IRV Smith this week as being like a

1028
00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:29,239
Speaker 3: high end tight end two.

1029
00:51:30,120 --> 00:51:33,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I mean all these all these injuries, why

1030
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:37,759
Speaker 2: not take the guy attached to Joe Burrow here in

1031
00:51:37,880 --> 00:51:38,279
Speaker 2: week one?

1032
00:51:38,719 --> 00:51:39,640
Speaker 1: I don't mind that at all.

1033
00:51:40,960 --> 00:51:43,400
Speaker 2: For me, Higbee was a guy had but that was

1034
00:51:43,440 --> 00:51:45,239
Speaker 2: when he was the sixth tight end. So now he's

1035
00:51:45,280 --> 00:51:46,880
Speaker 2: in the top five. I mean, I'll talk about him

1036
00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:48,960
Speaker 2: really quickly. You know, he got targeted on twenty six

1037
00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:52,600
Speaker 2: percent of his routes when a Rob and Cup were

1038
00:51:52,600 --> 00:51:55,200
Speaker 2: out of the lineup from week thirteen on, and even

1039
00:51:55,280 --> 00:51:56,880
Speaker 2: with Kupp in the line but he was still targeted

1040
00:51:56,920 --> 00:51:59,600
Speaker 2: on twenty three percent of his RUSS. Dad is massively

1041
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:03,480
Speaker 2: high for a tight end. So that's why we kind

1042
00:52:03,520 --> 00:52:05,600
Speaker 2: of both I think have him rank so high. But

1043
00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:09,400
Speaker 2: I'll throw out another name, and that's Jake Ferguson. He

1044
00:52:09,640 --> 00:52:13,239
Speaker 2: is the tight end twenty in ECR and I'm gonna

1045
00:52:13,239 --> 00:52:16,359
Speaker 2: have him, especially with all these injuries. Uh, borderline tight

1046
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:18,360
Speaker 2: end one this week. You know, We've talked about this

1047
00:52:18,480 --> 00:52:20,759
Speaker 2: on prior pods, but I think at used to begin

1048
00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:24,279
Speaker 2: this season, we expect Ferguson to be more of a

1049
00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:27,880
Speaker 2: one for one replacement for the Dalton Schultz role, uh

1050
00:52:28,040 --> 00:52:30,440
Speaker 2: than just a guy trapped in a three way committee.

1051
00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:34,200
Speaker 2: So you know, maybe over times, as Schoonmaker becomes more

1052
00:52:34,239 --> 00:52:37,280
Speaker 2: acclivated with things, maybe he starts to cut into Ferguson's

1053
00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:37,719
Speaker 2: playing time.

1054
00:52:37,760 --> 00:52:39,840
Speaker 1: But Ferguson looked really good in the preseason.

1055
00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:42,920
Speaker 2: He's got the same kind of draft pedigree as Schultz,

1056
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:45,440
Speaker 2: you know, so it's not like, you know, Ferguson actually

1057
00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:48,440
Speaker 2: might be the more talented guy, you know, when it's

1058
00:52:48,440 --> 00:52:51,680
Speaker 2: all said and done and uh and this Dallas team,

1059
00:52:52,040 --> 00:52:55,719
Speaker 2: you know, they're going against this this giant defense that

1060
00:52:55,920 --> 00:53:00,879
Speaker 2: has struggled with tight ends. So uh, yeah, I really

1061
00:53:01,000 --> 00:53:03,479
Speaker 2: like Ferguson. I think he you know, he could catch

1062
00:53:03,520 --> 00:53:07,399
Speaker 2: people by surprise. But you know, Dallas is still one

1063
00:53:07,440 --> 00:53:09,880
Speaker 2: of the better passing offenses in the league. So if

1064
00:53:09,920 --> 00:53:12,680
Speaker 2: you're looking for, you know, way to get a cheap

1065
00:53:12,760 --> 00:53:15,359
Speaker 2: touchdown or maybe just a few catches that I think

1066
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:17,959
Speaker 2: Ferguson's going to be a better bet than the most

1067
00:53:18,760 --> 00:53:22,520
Speaker 2: tight ends this week. So I'm gonna have Ferguson definitely

1068
00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:26,720
Speaker 2: inside my top fifteen. But he with Kelsey and Kiddo

1069
00:53:26,719 --> 00:53:28,480
Speaker 2: out of the way, he might he might even be

1070
00:53:28,560 --> 00:53:29,040
Speaker 2: top twelve.

1071
00:53:29,120 --> 00:53:30,600
Speaker 1: So Ferguson for me.

1072
00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:34,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like that. He has long term upside too

1073
00:53:34,080 --> 00:53:37,800
Speaker 3: if he does inherit the full Schultz roll. But just

1074
00:53:37,880 --> 00:53:41,600
Speaker 3: piling on Tyle Higby again, you know, like the matchup

1075
00:53:41,640 --> 00:53:44,440
Speaker 3: could be easier now Jamal Adams he's already ruled out.

1076
00:53:44,480 --> 00:53:48,000
Speaker 3: You know, their first round pick cornerback Devin Witherspoon might

1077
00:53:48,080 --> 00:53:50,640
Speaker 3: miss the game, so that the secondary could be in

1078
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:53,360
Speaker 3: rough shape. And yeah, like Higbee could end up catching

1079
00:53:53,480 --> 00:53:55,440
Speaker 3: like no joke, like seven or eight balls this week.

1080
00:53:56,400 --> 00:53:59,520
Speaker 3: Absolutely add Tyler if he's somehow still available.

1081
00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:01,560
Speaker 1: Who are you low on?

1082
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:05,360
Speaker 3: I'm low on Kyle Pitts this week just because you know,

1083
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:08,640
Speaker 3: the Falcons were a bit cautious with him during camp

1084
00:54:08,800 --> 00:54:12,280
Speaker 3: and preseason. You know, he's coming back from MCL surgery

1085
00:54:12,320 --> 00:54:15,560
Speaker 3: from last year, so there's a chance they ease him

1086
00:54:15,760 --> 00:54:19,200
Speaker 3: back into action in Week one. Plus they brought in

1087
00:54:19,320 --> 00:54:22,680
Speaker 3: John new Smith, who could eat in his usage this week.

1088
00:54:22,719 --> 00:54:25,640
Speaker 3: You know, last time John neu Smith was fancy relevant

1089
00:54:25,880 --> 00:54:29,480
Speaker 3: was under Arthur Smith in Tennessee, so he can make

1090
00:54:29,520 --> 00:54:32,400
Speaker 3: some noise this week. Plus I think Jon Robinson's probably

1091
00:54:32,440 --> 00:54:35,600
Speaker 3: going to eat into Pitts's target chair as well. This season.

1092
00:54:35,719 --> 00:54:38,319
Speaker 3: The jury's still out on Desmond Ritterer. We haven't seen

1093
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:41,680
Speaker 3: Pitts play a single snap with Ritter in the regular

1094
00:54:41,719 --> 00:54:43,520
Speaker 3: season yet. If you remember, you know, he was out

1095
00:54:43,600 --> 00:54:47,440
Speaker 3: the four games Ritder started last year. So the Falcons

1096
00:54:47,480 --> 00:54:50,040
Speaker 3: are three point home favorites. They're probably they're probably going

1097
00:54:50,080 --> 00:54:53,160
Speaker 3: to be very conservative here, so you probably have no

1098
00:54:53,320 --> 00:54:55,279
Speaker 3: choice but to play Kyle Pitts if you have him,

1099
00:54:55,360 --> 00:54:57,320
Speaker 3: especially with all the other stud tight ends hurt. But

1100
00:54:57,880 --> 00:55:00,520
Speaker 3: I would just temper expectations for week one and don't panic,

1101
00:55:00,600 --> 00:55:02,000
Speaker 3: you know, if he gets off to a slow start,

1102
00:55:02,360 --> 00:55:05,360
Speaker 3: wouldn't panic. I know we love to panic around Kyle Pitts,

1103
00:55:05,400 --> 00:55:08,840
Speaker 3: but I would not be shocked if he's limited, you know,

1104
00:55:08,920 --> 00:55:10,719
Speaker 3: out of the gate, just because they are trying to

1105
00:55:10,800 --> 00:55:12,600
Speaker 3: make sure his knee is fully healthy.

1106
00:55:13,120 --> 00:55:14,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree.

1107
00:55:14,800 --> 00:55:18,120
Speaker 2: I think London and Ritters showed great chemistry, so that's

1108
00:55:18,120 --> 00:55:21,279
Speaker 2: probably gonna be his number one target. But like you said,

1109
00:55:21,320 --> 00:55:24,399
Speaker 2: it's really hard to bench pits because not many guys

1110
00:55:24,440 --> 00:55:28,480
Speaker 2: have that kind of upside here. Yeah, for me, a

1111
00:55:28,520 --> 00:55:32,239
Speaker 2: guy on loan is Dalton Schultz. He is the consensus

1112
00:55:32,280 --> 00:55:35,640
Speaker 2: tight ended fourteen. I have him tight en eighteen for one.

1113
00:55:35,880 --> 00:55:36,719
Speaker 1: You know, this is a.

1114
00:55:38,760 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 2: Baltimore defense that you know, I don't expect him to

1115
00:55:42,160 --> 00:55:45,279
Speaker 2: be too given to tight ends this year. I think

1116
00:55:45,320 --> 00:55:47,600
Speaker 2: you want to attack Baltimore more on the outside. You know,

1117
00:55:47,680 --> 00:55:51,479
Speaker 2: the cornerback situation heading into the season is a bit rough.

1118
00:55:52,200 --> 00:55:54,480
Speaker 2: They were Meanwhile, they were a top ten defense and

1119
00:55:54,719 --> 00:55:56,279
Speaker 2: points all out to tight ends last year.

1120
00:55:56,360 --> 00:55:59,560
Speaker 1: So I think this will be a better game for Robert.

1121
00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:03,560
Speaker 2: Woods than you're who's starting it, Noah Brown, Nico Collins,

1122
00:56:03,600 --> 00:56:05,880
Speaker 2: those guys. Like those guys, at least one of them

1123
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:08,560
Speaker 2: will probably have a better game than Schultz.

1124
00:56:09,000 --> 00:56:10,960
Speaker 1: And you know, we kind of saw it in the preseason.

1125
00:56:11,160 --> 00:56:12,960
Speaker 2: We don't know if he's going to get that exact

1126
00:56:13,000 --> 00:56:15,480
Speaker 2: same usage that he did in Dallas when he played

1127
00:56:15,480 --> 00:56:17,919
Speaker 2: eighty one percent of the snaps and ran a round

1128
00:56:17,960 --> 00:56:19,200
Speaker 2: on seventy eight percent.

1129
00:56:19,040 --> 00:56:20,640
Speaker 1: Of the dropbacks.

1130
00:56:21,360 --> 00:56:23,319
Speaker 2: You know, he was kind of it was kind of more,

1131
00:56:24,080 --> 00:56:26,320
Speaker 2: you know, two out of every three, but you know

1132
00:56:26,400 --> 00:56:29,600
Speaker 2: they were mixing in other tight ends like Cotriano, and

1133
00:56:30,000 --> 00:56:32,439
Speaker 2: you know Jordan's back now as well, so we don't

1134
00:56:32,480 --> 00:56:34,960
Speaker 2: know exactly how this offense is going to look. H

1135
00:56:35,160 --> 00:56:39,560
Speaker 2: and Euston not really projected to score a lot of

1136
00:56:39,600 --> 00:56:41,600
Speaker 2: points at Baltimore in week one.

1137
00:56:42,040 --> 00:56:45,640
Speaker 1: You have a first a rookie quarterback making his first

1138
00:56:45,640 --> 00:56:50,160
Speaker 1: start on the road. So you know, I it's just

1139
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:52,360
Speaker 1: it's just not a great, great.

1140
00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:56,040
Speaker 2: Situation I think for Adulton shows not really a lot

1141
00:56:56,080 --> 00:56:59,000
Speaker 2: of touchdown equity there, which for a tight end. You know,

1142
00:56:59,040 --> 00:57:02,000
Speaker 2: I'm always kind of looking for or so I'm off

1143
00:57:02,120 --> 00:57:04,000
Speaker 2: Dalton Dalton Schultz this week.

1144
00:57:04,120 --> 00:57:06,839
Speaker 3: Same I am't tight end eighteen as well. It does

1145
00:57:06,920 --> 00:57:09,680
Speaker 3: look like the ECR is finally catching up to us.

1146
00:57:09,760 --> 00:57:12,840
Speaker 3: I think he's still like top twelve in season long UCR,

1147
00:57:12,920 --> 00:57:15,800
Speaker 3: but I think people will be, uh, you know, regretting

1148
00:57:15,880 --> 00:57:18,200
Speaker 3: that move by drafting him in the top twelve. I've

1149
00:57:18,200 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 3: been longing him all off season.

1150
00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:21,920
Speaker 2: Let's wrap it up with a tight end prop. I

1151
00:57:22,000 --> 00:57:24,320
Speaker 2: am going to go with a guy who you know

1152
00:57:24,520 --> 00:57:29,960
Speaker 2: suddenly comes back, you know, into the into the streamer discussion.

1153
00:57:30,200 --> 00:57:32,360
Speaker 1: You know, I guess, well, a lot of people probably

1154
00:57:32,400 --> 00:57:33,440
Speaker 1: drafted him, so, but.

1155
00:57:33,520 --> 00:57:35,600
Speaker 2: He's kind of like a fringe guy that now becomes

1156
00:57:35,720 --> 00:57:39,520
Speaker 2: very relevant with these injuries, and that's Chegokonkoo. Looks like

1157
00:57:39,600 --> 00:57:41,400
Speaker 2: he's going to take over that starting tight end roll

1158
00:57:42,320 --> 00:57:46,880
Speaker 2: for the Titans, and he's going against a Saints defense

1159
00:57:46,920 --> 00:57:48,880
Speaker 2: that allowed the fewest points per game in the league.

1160
00:57:49,080 --> 00:57:52,760
Speaker 2: It's that end, so that idea. But we know we

1161
00:57:52,880 --> 00:57:55,800
Speaker 2: want snaps and routes and Oconquo should have those. So

1162
00:57:56,400 --> 00:58:00,720
Speaker 2: I'm going to say his receiving yardage line at thirty

1163
00:58:01,400 --> 00:58:02,080
Speaker 2: three and.

1164
00:58:02,200 --> 00:58:06,080
Speaker 3: A half, oh man, that is so close to what

1165
00:58:06,200 --> 00:58:10,560
Speaker 3: I have. I have him right around like thirty two

1166
00:58:10,560 --> 00:58:11,640
Speaker 3: and a half, so I don't have to go with

1167
00:58:11,680 --> 00:58:15,760
Speaker 3: the under, and I think that the deciding factors. Obviously,

1168
00:58:15,760 --> 00:58:17,680
Speaker 3: we you know, DeAndre Hopkins is going to eat into

1169
00:58:17,720 --> 00:58:20,280
Speaker 3: his target share, but it was looking like trail On

1170
00:58:20,360 --> 00:58:23,000
Speaker 3: Burks wasn't gonna play week one, But it looks like

1171
00:58:23,120 --> 00:58:26,600
Speaker 3: he's like closer to tow one hundred percent than we thought,

1172
00:58:26,680 --> 00:58:30,320
Speaker 3: So I think Trailon Burks should see like a seventy

1173
00:58:30,400 --> 00:58:33,640
Speaker 3: percent plus routes run right here, So that's sort of

1174
00:58:33,680 --> 00:58:36,840
Speaker 3: the tiebreaker. If if I was a little bit shake here,

1175
00:58:36,880 --> 00:58:39,760
Speaker 3: on Burkes's availability, I'd go over, but since it looks

1176
00:58:39,800 --> 00:58:41,800
Speaker 3: like Burks is gonna play, I'm gonna have to lean

1177
00:58:41,920 --> 00:58:42,320
Speaker 3: under here.

1178
00:58:42,680 --> 00:58:45,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, this could be a game where they

1179
00:58:45,280 --> 00:58:47,479
Speaker 2: lean on on Hopkins and those guys you know, Tech,

1180
00:58:47,720 --> 00:58:51,560
Speaker 2: the Saints they have why am I blanking on his name?

1181
00:58:52,040 --> 00:58:55,080
Speaker 3: Jamario Davis and yeah, Tomorio Davis can cover.

1182
00:58:55,920 --> 00:58:58,840
Speaker 1: They have they have good, fat good Matthew can cover.

1183
00:58:59,200 --> 00:58:59,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, Matthew.

1184
00:59:00,240 --> 00:59:01,600
Speaker 1: They got a lot of They got a lot of

1185
00:59:01,640 --> 00:59:04,320
Speaker 1: guys that can cover tight ends. So probably not the

1186
00:59:04,480 --> 00:59:05,680
Speaker 1: best week to start Chig.

1187
00:59:06,480 --> 00:59:08,760
Speaker 2: You know, might might end up even having a guy

1188
00:59:08,840 --> 00:59:11,480
Speaker 2: like Ferguson Rankrank over him by the end of the week.

1189
00:59:11,920 --> 00:59:13,919
Speaker 1: I don't have him too far apart. So yeah, something

1190
00:59:13,920 --> 00:59:14,640
Speaker 1: to keep in mind there.

1191
00:59:14,760 --> 00:59:17,640
Speaker 2: But that is going to do it for our NFL

1192
00:59:17,760 --> 00:59:21,640
Speaker 2: Week one Player Projections episode of the Action Network podcast

1193
00:59:21,760 --> 00:59:26,720
Speaker 2: presented by bet MGM. For more great Fantasy content from

1194
00:59:26,760 --> 00:59:28,919
Speaker 2: Sean and I, be sure to check out our full

1195
00:59:29,120 --> 00:59:33,480
Speaker 2: Fantasy preview episode out now over on the Fantasy Flex channel.

1196
00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:35,280
Speaker 2: And if you're in the betting, be sure to check

1197
00:59:35,320 --> 00:59:39,960
Speaker 2: out my weekly betting preview episode every Thursday with Stucky.

1198
00:59:39,680 --> 00:59:41,720
Speaker 1: Right here on the Action Network podcast.

1199
00:59:42,160 --> 00:59:44,480
Speaker 2: Also, we have a great contest going on on the

1200
00:59:44,520 --> 00:59:47,360
Speaker 2: Favorites podcast, to be sure to check that out as

1201
00:59:47,440 --> 00:59:50,640
Speaker 2: well for details. Actionnetwork dot com for all of our

1202
00:59:50,800 --> 00:59:53,480
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1203
00:59:53,520 --> 00:59:56,160
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1204
00:59:56,120 --> 00:59:58,400
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1205
00:59:58,560 --> 01:00:02,200
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1206
01:00:02,320 --> 01:00:04,760
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01:00:04,840 --> 01:00:09,320
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1208
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1209
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01:00:30,280 --> 01:00:33,040
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