WEBVTT - U.S. Economy Softening From Delta 0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.440 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:04.480 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.320 --> 0:00:09.840 you the latest news from the world to business and finance, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.680 plus technology, politics, economics, all purtnising the power of Business 0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:17.159 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.160 --> 0:00:20.440 analyst in more than twenty countries. You can download Bloomberg 0:00:20.440 --> 0:00:23.600 Business Weekend iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. You can 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:25.760 also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern 0:00:25.800 --> 0:00:28.680 Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube search 0:00:28.800 --> 0:00:33.680 Bloomberg Global News. Let's get up to date though when 0:00:33.720 --> 0:00:35.880 it comes to COVID. We do have US Public Health 0:00:35.880 --> 0:00:39.000 advisors meeting today to talk about booster shots, with the 0:00:39.040 --> 0:00:43.239 White House eager to get a nationwide rollout going by September. 0:00:43.920 --> 0:00:46.400 Keep in mind the number of US COVID nineteen fatalities 0:00:46.600 --> 0:00:50.040 in this month in August already at the highest monthly 0:00:50.080 --> 0:00:53.160 total since March. You've got EU countries voting to reimpose 0:00:53.479 --> 0:00:56.000 restrictions on non essential travel from the US. There is 0:00:56.040 --> 0:00:58.560 a lot going on, so let's get our daily check 0:00:58.680 --> 0:01:01.920 on COVID dot or La Lufa and you. He is 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:04.600 doctor of medicine at the publicly traded Oak Street Help. 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:07.200 There a network of primary care centers taking care of 0:01:07.200 --> 0:01:11.119 Medicare patients and they've got about eleven billion dollar market 0:01:11.160 --> 0:01:13.080 cap give or take a few, he joins us on 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:15.920 the phone. And Toledo, Ohio, they are opening up another 0:01:16.000 --> 0:01:19.040 clinic clinic. Drf and you good to have you here 0:01:19.040 --> 0:01:21.760 with us. UH. Tell us about what you are seeing 0:01:21.760 --> 0:01:25.360 when it comes to COVID currently. Well, first of all, 0:01:25.360 --> 0:01:28.199 thank you for having me today. UM on the front 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:31.440 lines here in the communities, we are seeing more cases 0:01:31.480 --> 0:01:35.400 of folks, mostly younger people who are now presenting with 0:01:35.440 --> 0:01:38.920 COVID cases. UM, there are still where only as a 0:01:39.040 --> 0:01:43.200 nation about fully vaccinated, so there are still a lot 0:01:43.240 --> 0:01:46.560 of folks out there who are still vulnerable to the infection. 0:01:46.880 --> 0:01:49.400 At Oak Street, we've been working really hard to get 0:01:49.480 --> 0:01:54.760 our patients vaccinated. We work with mostly older people, older 0:01:54.760 --> 0:01:58.840 adults on Medicare and Medicaid vulnerable population, so we've been 0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:01.720 focused on this since the very beginning. Since the first 0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:04.800 vaccines were available late last year, we've been able to 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:07.200 vaccinate a hundred eighty five that we've given out a 0:02:07.280 --> 0:02:10.000 hundred and eighty five thousand doses across the United States. 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:12.519 And that's a combination of fives and MADERNA and J 0:02:12.639 --> 0:02:15.440 and J vaccines UM, and we care for over a 0:02:15.560 --> 0:02:18.720 hundred and ten thousand people in our three centers across 0:02:18.720 --> 0:02:21.680 the country. So we we know that taking care of 0:02:21.720 --> 0:02:25.040 this population and during this time is is mission critical 0:02:25.080 --> 0:02:27.440 for what we do. Are those people this population, the 0:02:27.480 --> 0:02:31.440 medicare population? Is it largely UM? I'm assuming right older 0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:33.760 folks and that they are more inclined to take the 0:02:33.840 --> 0:02:37.440 vaccine or is that not the case. It's a mixed bag. 0:02:37.560 --> 0:02:39.920 You know, I work here in Ohio UM and some 0:02:40.000 --> 0:02:43.240 of our and I see patients UM with our staff 0:02:43.400 --> 0:02:47.440 across the state. UM. In some communities, you know, there 0:02:47.560 --> 0:02:51.720 is strong support for the vaccine and conversations are usually 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:54.320 very straightforward. Would you like a vaccine? Yes, and we 0:02:54.360 --> 0:02:57.240 go ahead and vaccinate. Sometimes we have to have some 0:02:57.400 --> 0:03:01.520 more involved conversations with some of our patients about UM 0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:06.920 their hesitancy about getting vaccinated, and others are adamantly against it. 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:11.200 So you know, we we we're making progress. UM. It's 0:03:11.240 --> 0:03:15.960 slow but steady progress at getting everyone vaccinated. And what 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:19.800 about when it comes to minority members of the medicare community. 0:03:19.840 --> 0:03:23.679 Are they even more hesitant? You know, it's interesting I 0:03:23.720 --> 0:03:27.160 would say that amongst some of our patients there's hesitancy. 0:03:27.520 --> 0:03:29.919 I'm not at the point where I'm willing to say 0:03:29.960 --> 0:03:33.480 that this is something that is defined by our minority communities. 0:03:33.520 --> 0:03:38.080 There's certainly hesitancy. Much of that born from or that 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:43.440 comes from historical precedents around distrust of the health care system. 0:03:43.880 --> 0:03:47.200 Um And so as an African American physician, I know 0:03:47.280 --> 0:03:50.920 that I'm in a unique position to help people understand 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:54.840 that one this vaccine has been produced under some of 0:03:54.880 --> 0:03:59.760 the most the highest scrutiny probably in human history. UM 0:03:59.800 --> 0:04:03.320 that it is that it had has been developed with 0:04:03.400 --> 0:04:06.600 a mind around ensuring that this is a vaccine that 0:04:06.680 --> 0:04:09.880 works for all people. UM. So I continue that we 0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:12.920 continue to educate on this and we're changing minds, were 0:04:13.000 --> 0:04:16.600 changing minds amongst our our communities that we serve, and 0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:20.360 we're getting folks vaccinated, which is very fulfilling and edifying. Yeah, 0:04:20.360 --> 0:04:22.760 it's interesting when you say that, because You're right, the 0:04:22.760 --> 0:04:25.920 difference has been we have been seeing the development process 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:28.279 roll out really in front of our eyes. So all 0:04:28.320 --> 0:04:31.320 of the you know, problems which often happen with any 0:04:31.400 --> 0:04:34.359 kind of vaccine development or even any kind of medication development. 0:04:34.680 --> 0:04:37.200 But maybe it's not so front and center, at least 0:04:37.240 --> 0:04:40.400 among the mass public. But we are seeing the vaccine 0:04:40.400 --> 0:04:43.120 development and process happening in front of our eyes. But 0:04:43.160 --> 0:04:45.599 it's interesting because of that, As you say, there's probably 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:49.800 heightened scrutiny on every single step along the way because 0:04:49.800 --> 0:04:52.880 of it. And that's and that's not a bass thing. 0:04:52.960 --> 0:04:56.000 I think it's good that we have a transparent process 0:04:56.000 --> 0:04:59.159 of development, that people are learning more about how we 0:04:59.520 --> 0:05:03.360 um through vaccines. You know. An area that's oftentimes been 0:05:03.400 --> 0:05:06.320 a point of contention has been the distinction between an 0:05:06.360 --> 0:05:11.840 emergency use authorization and quote unquote full FDA authorization. There, 0:05:11.880 --> 0:05:16.240 while the two terms are not the same, the same rigor. 0:05:16.360 --> 0:05:20.600 The rigor that has gone into making vaccines um available 0:05:20.680 --> 0:05:25.120 under our eu A processes the FDA is incredibly high. 0:05:25.240 --> 0:05:27.880 The rigor is very high. The quality of that process 0:05:27.920 --> 0:05:31.160 has been very, very clear and transparent, and it helps. 0:05:31.240 --> 0:05:35.359 It has helped us as frontline physicians, delivered this vaccine 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:38.000 with the high degree of confidence that it's effective and 0:05:38.080 --> 0:05:41.040 that if more people get vaccinated, we can we can 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:43.920 turn the tide here. You know, with the delta variant 0:05:44.320 --> 0:05:47.120 um now the dominant strain in the United States, we 0:05:47.240 --> 0:05:50.560 have to get everybody vaccinated, especially as we are approaching 0:05:50.880 --> 0:05:55.560 um flu season, and you know, for my pediatric colleague, 0:05:55.800 --> 0:05:59.520 r s V is another major virus that can impact kids. 0:06:00.160 --> 0:06:03.960 We need our folks vaccinated because the prospect of having 0:06:04.320 --> 0:06:07.320 another winter like the one we had last year is 0:06:08.040 --> 0:06:12.120 quite frankly frightening, right exactly. UM, We're gonna leave it 0:06:12.120 --> 0:06:13.920 on that note. Thank you so much, really great to 0:06:14.160 --> 0:06:16.599 get your thoughts on this. Dr la lufay on Jo, 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:19.040 he's medical director of Oak Street Health, joining us on 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:22.320 the phone from Toledo, Ohio. UH speaking with him on 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:24.920 a day where global COVID case is top two hundred 0:06:25.000 --> 0:06:28.560 sixteen point six million deaths passing four and a half million, 0:06:28.640 --> 0:06:31.720 and as it as it UH pertains to the actual 0:06:31.760 --> 0:06:34.800 COVID vaccine given out, more than five point twenty two 0:06:34.839 --> 0:06:40.240 billion doses have been administered across the world. This is 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:44.200 Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes 0:06:44.320 --> 0:06:49.320 Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. The Category four storm Hurricane Ida, 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:52.440 now a tropical storm, could cost insurers at least fifteen 0:06:52.440 --> 0:06:55.160 billion dollars, packing some of the most powerful winds ever 0:06:55.240 --> 0:06:58.000 to hit the New Orleans area and as it lumbers north, 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:01.080 Ideas unleashing a catastrophic amount of rain that could total 0:07:01.120 --> 0:07:02.960 two ft when all is said and done. Let's get 0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:06.200 an update on the storm it's impacts so far with 0:07:06.200 --> 0:07:09.200 Bloomberg News Houston bureauchief Joe Caroll. He is on the 0:07:09.200 --> 0:07:11.840 phone from Houston. Hey, Joe, great to check in with you. 0:07:11.920 --> 0:07:13.720 So what is the latest that we know about the 0:07:13.760 --> 0:07:16.680 impact of this storm. Well, we still got more than 0:07:16.680 --> 0:07:21.040 a million households and businesses without power in Louisiana alone. 0:07:21.240 --> 0:07:23.720 The numbers come down slightly, but but it's going to 0:07:23.800 --> 0:07:26.200 be it could be weeks before the bulk of those 0:07:26.240 --> 0:07:29.680 are restored. There's there's been really catastrophic damage done to 0:07:29.760 --> 0:07:32.880 the transmission system. There's one of the main cables is 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:35.720 actually in the Mississippi River and along with the tower 0:07:35.760 --> 0:07:38.640 that was holding it up. So there's there's really a 0:07:38.640 --> 0:07:40.600 massive model of work to be done well and an 0:07:40.640 --> 0:07:43.560 evil I just you know, kind of an evil twist 0:07:43.560 --> 0:07:45.560 of fate or Mother Nature kind of with her own 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:48.080 evil take on timing. Right, it happened on the sixteenth 0:07:48.240 --> 0:07:51.240 anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, which made us all we would 0:07:51.240 --> 0:07:55.600 have probably anyway compared this storm to hurricane Hurricane Katrina. 0:07:55.960 --> 0:07:59.480 What were the similarities, Joe? What were the differences? Katrina 0:07:59.560 --> 0:08:03.239 was actually a larger storm geographically. The chilling thing about 0:08:03.240 --> 0:08:06.080 this last night, when when everything was blowing and going 0:08:06.200 --> 0:08:10.920 was was structures like transmission towers that withstood Katrina actually 0:08:10.920 --> 0:08:13.840 came down last night. And so that's, uh, that really 0:08:13.840 --> 0:08:15.800 shocked a lot of folks who didn't think a physically 0:08:15.840 --> 0:08:20.480 smaller storm would actually do more damage. The upside is 0:08:20.520 --> 0:08:23.960 that the levee system, which was reinforced after Katrina in 0:08:24.040 --> 0:08:26.840 New Orleans itself, has it held, and so for that 0:08:26.880 --> 0:08:30.280 reason we're not seeing the sort of horrific flooding and 0:08:30.320 --> 0:08:32.840 mass deaths that we saw in that storm in two 0:08:32.880 --> 0:08:35.280 thousand five. Well, and you know, was storm. Sometimes it's 0:08:35.320 --> 0:08:38.040 about the wind. Sometimes it's about, as you said, you know, 0:08:38.080 --> 0:08:41.920 the geographic impact. Sometimes it's about the water. Sometimes it's 0:08:41.920 --> 0:08:44.680 about all of that. This storm in particular, was it 0:08:44.720 --> 0:08:48.240 about the winds. For New Orleans proper, it was a wind. 0:08:48.280 --> 0:08:51.240 It was about the wind when you go into outlying areas. 0:08:51.240 --> 0:08:53.920 Black minds Parish and and say St. James Parish, these 0:08:54.160 --> 0:08:58.360 more rural and distant, isolated places. Uh, it's the water 0:08:58.400 --> 0:09:01.599 is how homes are inundated. Uh, it's a search and 0:09:01.640 --> 0:09:03.880 rescue mode. UM. We still don't know how bad the 0:09:03.920 --> 0:09:05.640 damage is out there. And one of the things that 0:09:05.679 --> 0:09:08.959 we keep reading about, as you well know, UM our 0:09:09.040 --> 0:09:12.400 team and you and everyone reporting that there's been a 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:15.880 lot of fires after this storm has passed through. What 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:19.079 do we know about that? There was an enormous amount 0:09:19.080 --> 0:09:22.120 of lightning came in with when the storm rolled ashore. 0:09:22.720 --> 0:09:25.920 We believe it's it's not been investigated, but that lightning 0:09:25.960 --> 0:09:27.760 started a lot of these building fires. And then the 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:31.000 problem was there was no water pressure. Firefighters couldn't drive 0:09:31.360 --> 0:09:33.439 their trucks because the wind speeds are too high, and 0:09:33.480 --> 0:09:35.040 even if they could get there, there was no water 0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:38.160 to put the fires out. And you know, water scarcity 0:09:38.240 --> 0:09:40.360 is still still a big problem in a lot of places. So, 0:09:40.559 --> 0:09:44.160 you know, Bloomberg and our teams have often reported about 0:09:44.200 --> 0:09:46.800 some of these low lying areas, and I think you know, 0:09:46.840 --> 0:09:49.480 the questions are out there about whether or not we 0:09:49.520 --> 0:09:52.360 need to remove people from these areas, especially with climate 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:56.000 change and rising sea levels. Or the frequency of storms, 0:09:56.040 --> 0:10:00.000 whether or not we need to maybe relocate people. Um, 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:02.920 it does seem like the areas that always get hit 0:10:02.960 --> 0:10:05.720 the hardest continue to get hit the hardest. What's the 0:10:05.760 --> 0:10:08.719 thinking about that? Yeah, it's a really that that is 0:10:08.760 --> 0:10:11.120 the toughest question to answer, because even in the case 0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:13.520 of this storm, when folks are told you need to 0:10:13.520 --> 0:10:15.880 get out there, there's no uh, there's no way to 0:10:15.880 --> 0:10:18.439 to to withstand this and to just hunker down, a 0:10:18.480 --> 0:10:20.679 lot of folks still stayed. Um. And then the other 0:10:20.679 --> 0:10:22.719 side of that we're seeing today is the mayor of 0:10:22.760 --> 0:10:25.000 New Orleans and the governor of Louisiana are both asking 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:27.120 those who did evacuate. We had a big rush of 0:10:27.120 --> 0:10:30.680 folks come here to Houston, uh day for yesterday. They're saying, 0:10:30.720 --> 0:10:32.720 don't come back yet. It's not safe. We don't know 0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:35.000 if your house is still standing. There's no power, there's 0:10:35.000 --> 0:10:37.720 no water, and so you do have we don't have 0:10:37.720 --> 0:10:39.679 a number four, but it's a lot of people who 0:10:39.760 --> 0:10:42.400 are we're sort of stuck in this limbo waiting to 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:44.319 see what's gonna happen. How long will did it take 0:10:44.400 --> 0:10:48.840 for for some of the repair to to be good enough? Um, 0:10:49.559 --> 0:10:51.520 for people to come back. Are we talking weeks? Are 0:10:51.520 --> 0:10:54.599 we talking months? They don't know yet. The poet, like 0:10:54.600 --> 0:10:55.920 I said, the power is going to be out in 0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:58.400 a lot of places for weeks, but they really don't 0:10:58.400 --> 0:10:59.720 know even how long it's going to take to clear 0:10:59.720 --> 0:11:02.040 the high ways. And we're not done yet with this storm, 0:11:02.120 --> 0:11:04.760 right because I have a radar app on my phone 0:11:05.360 --> 0:11:07.760 and the storm is now coming making its way up north. 0:11:07.840 --> 0:11:11.520 What's what's the expectations? They are the forecasts? Yeah, it's 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:14.640 and and the surprising thing is that that it's still 0:11:14.679 --> 0:11:17.920 so powerful. You know, it's it's not a hurricane anymore obviously, 0:11:18.040 --> 0:11:19.400 but like you said, when you look at the radar, 0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:22.080 this is a monster storm. Still. The bad news for 0:11:22.080 --> 0:11:25.240 for New Orleans is that all that water that's moving 0:11:25.280 --> 0:11:27.679 up in Mississippi and Tennessee that still has to come 0:11:27.720 --> 0:11:33.200 down the river system. So so it's going to arrive again. Unbelievable. Um, 0:11:33.240 --> 0:11:35.280 it's just amazing. And I know some of the flows 0:11:35.320 --> 0:11:37.440 I think was that the Mississippi River actually the floes 0:11:37.440 --> 0:11:39.679 actually went in the opposite direction because of all the water. 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:42.480 Hey Joe, thank you so much, really appreciate the update 0:11:42.520 --> 0:11:45.560 on that. Bloomberg News Houston Bureau chief Joe Carol joining 0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:49.320 us on the phone in Houston. You're listening to Bloomberg 0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:52.960 Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim 0:11:53.080 --> 0:11:56.960 Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, there are a few economic 0:11:57.000 --> 0:11:59.480 stories on our agenda this Monday. There are some high 0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:02.800 frequency charts out there that specifically show the US economy 0:12:02.920 --> 0:12:06.200 softening from the delta variant. That variant we know is 0:12:06.200 --> 0:12:08.920 certainly on fit Chairman j Powell's radar. We got that 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:12.440 confirmation on Friday from the Jackson Hole meetings. So here 0:12:12.480 --> 0:12:16.120 with the hypercruncy charts that we're focusing on and why 0:12:16.160 --> 0:12:18.480 you should be as well as Bloomberg News Economics reporter 0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:22.120 Steve Matthews. He is on the phone in our Atlanta bureau. Steve, 0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:24.400 so great to have you here. I love this story. 0:12:24.880 --> 0:12:28.160 So smart by you, Angel Shaw. So tell me about 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:32.920 the charts that you looked at and what it shows us. So, Carol, Uh, 0:12:33.200 --> 0:12:36.840 what's interesting here is a lot of the official government 0:12:36.920 --> 0:12:41.920 data is lagged and therefore it's less useful. But you 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:44.760 can find out if you want, how many people went 0:12:44.800 --> 0:12:48.319 through airport checkpoints yesterday. There were one point nine million people. 0:12:48.400 --> 0:12:52.040 You can find out what the hotel occupancy was last week. 0:12:52.160 --> 0:12:54.920 You can find out lots of things from kind of 0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:59.839 looking at anecdotal and survey data that is from on 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:04.880 official sources. And what we found out is that, uh, 0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:08.720 you know, maybe not surprising, but but maybe a little 0:13:08.760 --> 0:13:14.160 bit concerning, UH, is that travel and tourism data is 0:13:14.200 --> 0:13:21.200 all gotten substantially weaker UH people dining out via via 0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:25.440 open table, that data has gotten a lot weaker in 0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:28.880 August than it was in July. UH and even and 0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:31.320 this will be interesting to see how things develop on 0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:35.360 Friday when you have the official government jobs report. But 0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:38.640 there are some signs that the job market might be 0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:40.920 easing back a little bit. Yes, there's a lot of 0:13:40.960 --> 0:13:44.760 demand for workers, and some companies are having trouble hiring. 0:13:45.400 --> 0:13:51.720 But the bookings for jobs, the listings on things like 0:13:51.800 --> 0:13:55.960 indeed have come down a bit, particularly on jobs UH 0:13:56.160 --> 0:13:59.559 that might be COVID sensitive, such as childcare. I mean, 0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:04.480 you you're going to hire UH childcare only, childcare workers 0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:08.920 only if you're comfortable with having your kid next to 0:14:09.960 --> 0:14:14.840 UH childcare worker. You're going dental offices, for example, there's 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:19.120 been weakening UH for bookings for those type of jobs. 0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:24.480 So all in all, uh, it presents a little bit 0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:29.400 of a story of weakening demand. And it will be 0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:31.840 interesting to see how this shows up in in the 0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:34.280 official data. Steve. It's like working for our hedge fund, right, 0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:35.840 these are the things you look at that might be 0:14:36.280 --> 0:14:38.880 so much more like moment in time to give you 0:14:38.880 --> 0:14:42.440 an idea of what people are doing today, not last month. Yeah. 0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:45.480 And in fact, you get some pushback on this because 0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:51.040 all almost all this data is not seasonally adjusted, uh, 0:14:51.120 --> 0:14:55.520 and there's some uncertainty about it. So it is, it 0:14:55.640 --> 0:14:59.000 is less precise than the official data, but it also 0:14:59.320 --> 0:15:02.280 is stuff that happens yesterday or happened last week. So 0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:04.280 it's like, if you want to know what's happening now, 0:15:04.800 --> 0:15:08.080 you really have to look at the high frequency data. 0:15:08.200 --> 0:15:09.800 You know. One of the things I think, Steve, that 0:15:09.840 --> 0:15:12.280 we've talked a lot about here, certainly on air, is 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:16.520 about the number of companies that are rolling back, bringing 0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:19.440 back workers to offices. And if that feels like a 0:15:19.440 --> 0:15:22.040 big one, because that has a trickle down, trickle across, 0:15:22.120 --> 0:15:24.600 triple up. What effact? Because you don't go to work, 0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:27.400 maybe you're not buying lunch, you're not maybe stopping at 0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:29.600 a store to pick up something you're not getting on 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:33.840 mass transit. It really changes things that that is interesting 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:39.240 because Castle Systems attracts the number of people who badge 0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:42.480 into an office every week. So it's like, if you know, 0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:45.280 when I go into the Bloomberg office, I have a badge, 0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:48.720 I wave my badge, it says I'm in the office building. 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:51.720 It says I'm in the office. Uh, pretty much everybody 0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:56.320 does that across offices everywhere. Last week, Uh, the number 0:15:56.320 --> 0:16:00.200 of people badged into offices in ten cities went down 0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:03.400 at every city. And it's like the number of people 0:16:03.440 --> 0:16:07.080 in offices is still around thirty of what it was 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:10.040 in two thousand nineteen. It's like people talk about back 0:16:10.080 --> 0:16:13.480 to office, it's really not quite happening yet. Well, and 0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:16.280 what's interesting too, And I think it's timely Steve in 0:16:16.280 --> 0:16:18.160 a week where we're gonna get the monthly jobs report 0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:21.160 on Friday, I can't remember it's Larry Summers have to 0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:24.320 create a Google on the and a search on the Bloomberg. 0:16:24.560 --> 0:16:27.040 But there have been folks out there who are questioning 0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:29.800 some of the metrics that J. Powell and Company J 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:33.560 Pale in particular, are tracking in terms of deciding when 0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:36.320 to start significantly changing fad policy and saying that, wait 0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:38.600 a minute, maybe it's not so smart to track the 0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:42.600 unemployment rate because there have been dislocations in the labor 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:45.120 market because of COVID and we know it. I know 0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:47.880 people who have retired or said I'm not going to 0:16:48.000 --> 0:16:49.680 go back to work, or I'm gonna work differently, or 0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:52.200 I'm gonna work part time. You know that it is 0:16:52.280 --> 0:16:56.160 a longer term trend and change. And I wonder what 0:16:56.280 --> 0:17:00.360 you're hearing on that front. Yeah, that's absolutely the taste, 0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:03.800 and in fact, it will be interesting really on Friday 0:17:04.359 --> 0:17:09.040 because as j Pal said at Jackson Hole virtual Jackson 0:17:09.080 --> 0:17:13.240 Hole because of it was canceled. Uh, you can't look 0:17:13.280 --> 0:17:16.280 at just the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate may go down, 0:17:16.720 --> 0:17:20.280 but you have to look at things like, uh, the 0:17:20.400 --> 0:17:24.200 employment population, right that the percentage of the population it's employed. 0:17:24.240 --> 0:17:28.200 You have to look at labor force participation because these 0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:32.119 may not recover quite as fast and the fact that 0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:35.040 the unemployment rate is going down may not give you 0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:37.960 a picture that's accurate of what's happening with the labor market. 0:17:38.119 --> 0:17:40.719 If people are staying out of jobs because they're afraid 0:17:40.800 --> 0:17:44.280 to work because of COVID, right exactly, And so we're 0:17:44.320 --> 0:17:47.720 not quite sure all of the impact. And I guess 0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:49.560 we just have to go from data pointing data. And 0:17:49.600 --> 0:17:52.080 if you want to wait six weeks as the FED 0:17:52.160 --> 0:17:56.840 does for meeting the meeting, if you're j Pale, you say, well, 0:17:57.240 --> 0:17:59.680 maybe we'll know more in another six weeks when we 0:17:59.720 --> 0:18:04.720 have the September jobs reports. So it's building the case 0:18:05.119 --> 0:18:08.840 for waiting a little bit longer. Hey, another great point, UH, 0:18:08.840 --> 0:18:11.240 and story on the bloom Bloomberg has to do with 0:18:11.400 --> 0:18:15.479 how the delta variant is starting to ruin trades. Uh. 0:18:15.560 --> 0:18:18.040 This is a headline I'm reading Ruined Trades epic run 0:18:18.560 --> 0:18:22.760 on our Bloomberg tracker and basically just tracking global goods 0:18:22.760 --> 0:18:25.520 and how they are trading. UH. And a team of 0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:29.040 our reporters, led by Michelle jem Risco put this out trade. 0:18:29.119 --> 0:18:31.879 What is trade telling us right now? Yeah? This is 0:18:31.960 --> 0:18:35.600 really interesting too, because it's like in the spring when 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:38.240 you started to have some of these supply chain issues 0:18:38.680 --> 0:18:43.639 with with UH, for example, with auto components and with 0:18:43.720 --> 0:18:49.160 other with lumber and housing and etcetera. Uh, you heard 0:18:49.200 --> 0:18:53.000 the Fed and other economists say, Okay, this is transitory. 0:18:53.080 --> 0:18:56.720 We know there's some supply chain issues economies reopening after COVID, 0:18:57.720 --> 0:19:00.040 but you know, just hold on a few months and 0:19:00.280 --> 0:19:03.800 things will go back to normal. And that is not happening. 0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:06.320 It's like and in fact, you know, when you look 0:19:06.359 --> 0:19:11.080 at what's happening across international trade across the world, things 0:19:11.119 --> 0:19:14.560 are getting worse marginally from the previous month. You have 0:19:15.280 --> 0:19:20.360 UH ports and China closing, you have disruptions basically everywhere 0:19:20.400 --> 0:19:23.480 because of delta. I mean, things are not moving back 0:19:23.480 --> 0:19:26.840 to normal. And that means these supply chain issues and 0:19:26.880 --> 0:19:29.960 these inflation issues are gonna last a little bit longer. 0:19:30.080 --> 0:19:32.920 All right, little patients, I guess is what we all need. Hey, Steve, 0:19:32.960 --> 0:19:34.720 thank you so much. You broke down a lot UH 0:19:34.760 --> 0:19:37.600 and I highly recommend everybody check out Bloomberg dot com 0:19:37.640 --> 0:19:40.040 or go to the Bloomberg terminal and check out these stories. 0:19:40.000 --> 0:19:43.480 Steve Matthews, Economics reporter at Bloomberg News. You're listening to 0:19:43.560 --> 0:19:47.520 Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes 0:19:47.640 --> 0:19:51.560 Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, several things out of 0:19:51.640 --> 0:19:54.399 China again on our radar, including China putting limits on 0:19:54.400 --> 0:19:58.480 online gaming played by miners. Also looking at the steady 0:19:58.480 --> 0:20:01.240 flow of headlines u out of Beijing as it cracks 0:20:01.240 --> 0:20:04.439 down on a growing number of industries and sectors, and 0:20:04.520 --> 0:20:07.439 looking really to spread wealth more broadly, and looking at 0:20:07.480 --> 0:20:10.359 that is our Bloomberg New Economy editorial director Andy Brown. 0:20:10.400 --> 0:20:13.600 He writes over the weekend about what wealthy tech entrepreneurs 0:20:13.600 --> 0:20:16.359 in China are doing to show solidarity when it comes 0:20:16.400 --> 0:20:19.640 to the Chinese government. Andy joining us on this Monday 0:20:19.640 --> 0:20:22.560 on the phone in New Hampshire andya read your column. 0:20:22.640 --> 0:20:25.920 It looks like to me almost a forced yet strategic 0:20:25.960 --> 0:20:29.280 form of philanthropy that's going on in China among the 0:20:29.320 --> 0:20:33.640 tech entrepreneurs. Tell us what's going on? Yeah, that's that's 0:20:33.720 --> 0:20:39.440 exactly right. This is political theater of the highest order. Um, 0:20:39.680 --> 0:20:42.159 President of the Thing, as you say, is on a 0:20:42.240 --> 0:20:47.640 campaign to promote common prosperity. In doing so, he's reviving 0:20:47.840 --> 0:20:54.280 the modest eras there of egalitarianism, and the country's billionaires 0:20:54.880 --> 0:20:58.479 have got the message. Then they're coughing up billions of 0:20:58.520 --> 0:21:01.879 dollars something like such. Seen billion just in the last 0:21:02.080 --> 0:21:06.840 few months handed over to charity. Great. If you're looking 0:21:07.080 --> 0:21:11.000 at your billionaires and your most dynamic Chinese companies to 0:21:11.119 --> 0:21:14.720 hedge their political risk. If you're a shareholder, perhaps you're 0:21:14.760 --> 0:21:17.720 not quite so happy. Andy, is this the Cultural Revolution? 0:21:17.760 --> 0:21:21.879 Two point oh? In some ways. Look, this is a 0:21:21.920 --> 0:21:24.919 lot of this is a lot of this is about politics. 0:21:25.119 --> 0:21:29.359 And you know, during the Cultural Revolution, people in China 0:21:29.600 --> 0:21:34.760 famed compliance. Um uh, they didn't really mean it. Um. 0:21:34.800 --> 0:21:37.440 There's a penalty to be paid in China to day 0:21:37.640 --> 0:21:41.920 if you go against the party line. And line now 0:21:42.160 --> 0:21:47.720 is egalitarianism um And this means really a an assault 0:21:48.200 --> 0:21:52.280 on the private sector. And that's really where the problem 0:21:52.359 --> 0:21:56.360 comes from. Because so much of China's inequality is baked 0:21:56.560 --> 0:22:00.840 into the system. It's baked into their taxation system. It's 0:22:00.880 --> 0:22:03.920 the billionaires the private sector that are paying the price 0:22:03.960 --> 0:22:07.760 for this. Well, okay, so you know, every time you 0:22:07.760 --> 0:22:10.720 and I talk, I think about, you know, presidency and 0:22:11.160 --> 0:22:13.400 what the end game is. Because on one hand, right 0:22:13.800 --> 0:22:16.159 they do long term planning, China does as a country, 0:22:16.200 --> 0:22:19.360 as a nation, as a government, and they have been 0:22:19.480 --> 0:22:24.720 very open about wanting to dominate major industrial sectors. At 0:22:24.720 --> 0:22:26.760 the same time, some of what they're doing feels like 0:22:26.840 --> 0:22:30.480