WEBVTT - House Democrats Consider Demanding Biden Withdraw From Race 0:00:01.480 --> 0:00:05.360 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 0:00:05.440 --> 0:00:08.159 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Playing and 0:00:08.280 --> 0:00:11.120 broun Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand 0:00:11.200 --> 0:00:14.840 wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:16.440 --> 0:00:19.520 Back to the top story. In some breaking news that 0:00:19.600 --> 0:00:24.200 we continue to cover, dozens of Democratic lawmakers are considering 0:00:24.280 --> 0:00:27.240 signing a letter demanding President Joe Biden withdraw from the race. 0:00:27.280 --> 0:00:30.040 A senior party official said as panic mounts that he'll 0:00:30.120 --> 0:00:34.120 cost them control of Congress. This exclusive report coming just 0:00:34.200 --> 0:00:36.960 in the last ten minutes from Billy House and Eric Wasason. 0:00:37.320 --> 0:00:40.239 Billy is Bloomberg News congressional reporter. He joins us from 0:00:40.280 --> 0:00:43.839 our Washington DC bureau right now, Billy, the calls for 0:00:44.120 --> 0:00:48.959 Biden to step aside are growing increasingly louder. This time though, 0:00:49.280 --> 0:00:52.680 it's coming from lawmakers who are concerned about Congress. 0:00:52.840 --> 0:00:53.440 What did you learn? 0:00:54.680 --> 0:00:59.240 Yeah, there's a draft letter that's prepared for signing, has 0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:04.120 not been sent out, but it is being circulated from 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:08.759 safe seat democrats. These are Democrats from traditionally safe seats, 0:01:08.880 --> 0:01:13.280 non competitive areas. This underscores that it's just not people 0:01:13.319 --> 0:01:16.840 worried about losing their elections who are concerned about Biden 0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:20.640 staying on the ticket, but those who likely will be 0:01:20.720 --> 0:01:24.840 re elected and concerned about the state of Congress as 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:28.360 a way to put a break on perhaps a Trump presidency. 0:01:29.560 --> 0:01:33.319 Billy, this is such an unusual situation. Obviously, I can't 0:01:34.120 --> 0:01:37.560 ever remember in my many years on this planet of 0:01:37.680 --> 0:01:41.880 the House Democrats actually moving against a president like this. 0:01:42.000 --> 0:01:44.640 Do we have any sense of who will be the 0:01:44.720 --> 0:01:47.600 signers of this letter? I mean, could it be a 0:01:47.680 --> 0:01:50.480 Nancy Pelosi type of person to actually sign on to this? 0:01:51.640 --> 0:01:55.680 I think it's far more likely to be a senior 0:01:56.560 --> 0:02:01.600 Democratic lawmakers, again from safe seats, who are concerned about 0:02:02.720 --> 0:02:08.799 status on committees on legislation and on ability to block 0:02:09.760 --> 0:02:13.960 the White House Trump White House from ramming through things. 0:02:15.600 --> 0:02:21.959 These are probably veteran lawmakers, and the question is will 0:02:21.960 --> 0:02:24.919 they pull the trigger and actually send this letter, and 0:02:25.560 --> 0:02:29.320 or will something else happen to prevent that? 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:30.040 Billy? 0:02:30.120 --> 0:02:35.120 Is the concern here that that Trump will become president 0:02:35.200 --> 0:02:37.120 and that Republicans will control Congress? 0:02:37.160 --> 0:02:37.400 Also? 0:02:37.560 --> 0:02:40.519 Is this a last ditch effort at this point to 0:02:40.680 --> 0:02:44.280 have a Congress that is not in the same party 0:02:44.520 --> 0:02:45.800 as the president? 0:02:47.040 --> 0:02:49.400 Well, the concern is that both the Senate and the 0:02:49.560 --> 0:02:55.000 House would fall because of a Biden candidacy, that that 0:02:55.120 --> 0:03:03.680 would derail down ballot candidacies, and the fact that Democrats 0:03:03.720 --> 0:03:08.079 are fearful of a White House and Congress totally dominated 0:03:08.120 --> 0:03:09.760 by Republicans running this country. 0:03:10.360 --> 0:03:13.359 Yeah, but I wonder you mentioned, well they really pull 0:03:13.440 --> 0:03:17.440 the trigger? I mean, is them leaking this news to 0:03:17.560 --> 0:03:21.480 you sort of enough to get that message across to Biden? 0:03:21.560 --> 0:03:23.480 Do you think that's part of the plan, is just 0:03:23.560 --> 0:03:26.960 to make it clear to Biden that this is something 0:03:27.000 --> 0:03:27.639 they're willing to do. 0:03:29.560 --> 0:03:34.359 Could be the case, but we do know that Biden's 0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:37.160 hearing some of these concerns. In fact, he called a 0:03:37.280 --> 0:03:42.360 House Minority leader, King Jeffries for a second time yesterday 0:03:42.840 --> 0:03:45.839 for a very what was described as a very personal talk, 0:03:46.040 --> 0:03:50.120 very private talk, and the House Democrats, a group of 0:03:50.160 --> 0:03:53.040 them got together for some legislative discussion yesterday, but that 0:03:53.320 --> 0:03:59.600 devolved into a fear fest, panicky gripe session about what 0:03:59.680 --> 0:04:01.600 happened if Biden sticks around? 0:04:02.080 --> 0:04:05.280 Well, so what happens if he doesn't, though, that's I 0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:08.760 think a big question as well. There's no as Mike mentioned, 0:04:08.840 --> 0:04:11.400 that hasn't happened in our lifetimes that this late in 0:04:11.480 --> 0:04:15.440 a candidacy, a president sitting president has decided not to continue, 0:04:15.480 --> 0:04:18.839 or even a presumptive nominee has decided not to continue. 0:04:19.080 --> 0:04:21.120 You go back to nineteen sixty eight and Lyndon Johnson, 0:04:21.160 --> 0:04:23.120 but that was back in March when he decided not 0:04:23.279 --> 0:04:28.600 to pursue the presidency, was before the primaries. Billy, what 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:31.159 happens if he were to step aside? 0:04:32.080 --> 0:04:35.160 Well, that's the big question. Of course, Hubert Humphrey didn't 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:40.480 farewell back in sixty eight when Johnson withdrew late in 0:04:40.520 --> 0:04:44.720 the game. They are all kinds of scenarios and nobody 0:04:44.800 --> 0:04:47.960 really knows for sure whether Kamala Harris, the vice president, 0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:50.880 would simply be the choice, or there would be an 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:55.320 open convention, or what exactly would happen. And that's or 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:58.480 whether it would actually be a boost for Democrats to 0:04:58.640 --> 0:05:00.839 drop Biden this late in the game. 0:05:02.240 --> 0:05:06.120 Well, Billy, what a tremendous scoop on this letter potentially 0:05:06.160 --> 0:05:10.160 from House Democrats. How do you see it all playing out? 0:05:10.279 --> 0:05:13.280 I mean, your guess is as good as anyone's is. 0:05:13.360 --> 0:05:15.839 This kind of looked like the last straw for Biden. 0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:18.320 This type of thing happening. 0:05:19.480 --> 0:05:21.680 It's really hard to tell, but I would suspect he has, 0:05:22.320 --> 0:05:25.640 and others have suggested that he really has just a 0:05:25.720 --> 0:05:29.279 matter of days to turn this around with performances at 0:05:29.320 --> 0:05:35.960 public events or an interview on ABC. But this pressure 0:05:36.000 --> 0:05:38.880 on him is moving faster than many many expected, and 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:43.000 people are now talking just days for him to do 0:05:43.200 --> 0:05:49.000 something dramatically to show that he's fit and ready to 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:51.160 stay on board with this campaign. 0:05:51.200 --> 0:05:53.880 Billy, what did you see shift in recent days? Because 0:05:54.120 --> 0:05:57.520 as soon as the debate ended and everybody realized it 0:05:57.720 --> 0:06:02.000 was a political catastrophe for the sitting president, you did 0:06:02.080 --> 0:06:04.960 have a lot of folks come out with what seemed 0:06:05.080 --> 0:06:10.040 like the very manicured statements, including Foreign President Obama, who 0:06:10.120 --> 0:06:14.920 worked closely with Biden for eight years, and others as well, 0:06:15.360 --> 0:06:19.360 sort of mounting this defensive that seemed very coordinated. But 0:06:19.440 --> 0:06:20.880 something shifted in recent days. 0:06:22.640 --> 0:06:23.640 Well, whether something. 0:06:23.480 --> 0:06:26.279 Shifted or something didn't happen that they had asked to happen. 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:30.080 I mean, certainly the White House and the Biden campaign 0:06:30.160 --> 0:06:33.720 and the President himself had been asking Democrats to keep 0:06:33.760 --> 0:06:36.200 their powder dry in terms of calls for him to withdraw, 0:06:36.520 --> 0:06:41.560 to give him time to show that was that shaky 0:06:41.600 --> 0:06:48.680 debate performance was not really the best picture of where 0:06:48.760 --> 0:06:52.440 he and how he can perform. But instead of really 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:56.280 coming out forcefully in these few days, he asked, he 0:06:56.360 --> 0:06:57.040 has not done that. 0:06:58.680 --> 0:07:00.360 Hey, Billy, We're gonna let you run because I know 0:07:00.440 --> 0:07:03.200 you are super busy. Once again, this breaking news just 0:07:03.279 --> 0:07:06.640 happening just before the noon hour. Just in the last 0:07:06.760 --> 0:07:09.840 twenty minutes, Billy House and Eric Wasason reporting that House 0:07:09.920 --> 0:07:14.000 Democrats are considering demanding that Biden withdraw from the race. 0:07:14.200 --> 0:07:18.080 Billy House is Bloomberg News Congressional reporter joining us from Washington, DC. 0:07:23.480 --> 0:07:27.320 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:07:27.440 --> 0:07:30.960 weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 0:07:31.000 --> 0:07:33.760 Outo with the Bloomberg Business Act. You can also listen 0:07:33.880 --> 0:07:36.960 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 0:07:37.360 --> 0:07:40.119 Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:43.840 So funny story. Yesterday, Tim and I do a simul 0:07:43.880 --> 0:07:45.840 cast together. I'm on TV, he's on radio, and we 0:07:45.880 --> 0:07:47.680 do a simulcast. I'm at the closing bell and we're 0:07:47.680 --> 0:07:49.120 talking about Paramount, and Tim. 0:07:49.040 --> 0:07:53.160 Says, I say, well, more news in Paramount yesterday because 0:07:53.200 --> 0:07:55.760 there were a couple reports that there were some bidders circling, 0:07:56.720 --> 0:07:58.800 and I said, when is this story just going to die? 0:07:58.880 --> 0:07:59.840 When is this going to be done? 0:08:00.120 --> 0:08:00.280 Yeah? 0:08:00.320 --> 0:08:02.280 And then literally like two and a half seconds later, 0:08:02.400 --> 0:08:05.600 there is a headline that said sky Dance and Paramount 0:08:05.960 --> 0:08:07.040 have been talking for a deal. 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:08.000 A deal. 0:08:08.240 --> 0:08:09.760 I thought Skydance was out, so did we. 0:08:09.880 --> 0:08:12.320 And apparently now they have a preliminary agreement. So it's 0:08:12.360 --> 0:08:16.560 so confusing. Luckily, Keitha Rongganathan Bloomberg Intelligence US media analyst 0:08:16.640 --> 0:08:19.720 can help us. Keitha, what is happening? 0:08:21.720 --> 0:08:24.560 Yeah, thank you so much for having me, Alex and Tim. Yeah, 0:08:24.640 --> 0:08:27.560 it's it's not over until it's over. And this this movie. 0:08:27.560 --> 0:08:29.680 We've seen this movie now play out so many times. 0:08:29.720 --> 0:08:32.679 But yes, sky Dance is back. It looks like they 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:37.319 have amended some of the terms of the deal agreement 0:08:37.520 --> 0:08:40.800 with Paramount. Remember they had been in this very very 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:44.680 long drawn out negotiating process. We're talking almost six seven months, 0:08:45.440 --> 0:08:47.480 and then right when they were at the finish line 0:08:48.120 --> 0:08:51.599 somewhere in mid June, you know, Sherry Redstone basically just 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:55.480 walked away, you know, from the entire deal. But I 0:08:55.559 --> 0:08:58.719 think now they're back, and I think the one big 0:08:58.840 --> 0:09:01.240 thing that Sherry Redstone was kind of looking for, which 0:09:01.280 --> 0:09:04.200 she seems to have gotten, is slightly better in terms 0:09:04.280 --> 0:09:06.200 of the amount of cash that she's going to get paid, 0:09:06.320 --> 0:09:08.760 So I think previously it was about one point seven billion, 0:09:08.800 --> 0:09:11.520 now it's one point seven five billion. But I think 0:09:11.720 --> 0:09:17.280 more importantly is that she is getting stronger indemnification languages 0:09:17.760 --> 0:09:20.600 language in the deal agreement, which basically protects her from 0:09:20.640 --> 0:09:23.959 any potential lawsuits. That's something that she has been pretty 0:09:24.000 --> 0:09:26.760 worried about because remember the sky Dance steal basically favors 0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:30.360 her over everybody else, so that is obviously breeding ground 0:09:30.400 --> 0:09:32.559 for a lot of litigation. And the one thing I 0:09:32.600 --> 0:09:34.640 think that is going to work for skuy Dance and 0:09:34.720 --> 0:09:38.559 David Ellison is that there is no longer this requirement 0:09:38.760 --> 0:09:43.319 for the majority of the minority shareholder approval, which was 0:09:43.440 --> 0:09:45.240 kind of a non starter for David Ellison. So I 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:47.400 think she has said that, Okay, we don't need that anymore. 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:50.120 So that's where we stand right now. We're really not 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:52.920 sure about, you know, if there are any deal sweeteners 0:09:53.040 --> 0:09:56.320 for the Class B shareholders or what else is happening 0:09:56.640 --> 0:09:58.480 in terms of the other deal terms. 0:09:58.760 --> 0:10:01.920 Yeah, this is a very complicated deal, and it's also 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:07.000 given the dual class share structure makes it even more complicated. Kita, 0:10:08.200 --> 0:10:11.400 I'm wondering who gets what lay it out for us? 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:13.959 Because we know David Allison, who's we should notice, the 0:10:14.000 --> 0:10:17.440 son of Larry Allison. He's a film producer, he's certainly 0:10:17.480 --> 0:10:20.480 interested in the studio business. But who gets what if 0:10:20.520 --> 0:10:21.439 this deal were to go through? 0:10:22.800 --> 0:10:24.760 Yes, I think what is going to happen is, obviously, 0:10:24.800 --> 0:10:28.120 as you said, this is an extremely convoluted, complex process. 0:10:28.160 --> 0:10:31.160 So in stage one of this deal, it's a multi 0:10:31.160 --> 0:10:33.240 step deal. In stage one, what is going to happen 0:10:33.480 --> 0:10:37.920 is Skydance is basically going to acquire National Amusements. Now, 0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:40.560 National Amusements is the parent company of Paramount. 0:10:40.600 --> 0:10:42.559 Okay, I'm just getting out the white board to make 0:10:42.600 --> 0:10:43.600 a diagram here. 0:10:43.640 --> 0:10:44.480 Actually that's a good idea. 0:10:44.600 --> 0:10:48.600 Yeah, yeah, it holds about eighty percent of the voting 0:10:48.640 --> 0:10:51.800 stock for Paramount. So they're going to go ahead and 0:10:51.880 --> 0:10:54.440 do that transaction first, and then once that's in place, 0:10:54.520 --> 0:10:58.160 then they're actually Paramount is going to merge with sky Dance, 0:10:58.520 --> 0:11:02.400 so it becomes one whole combined entity. And then obviously, 0:11:02.520 --> 0:11:05.080 right now you have this really kind of funny structure 0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:08.360 at the paramount, So they've basically fired their previous CEO, 0:11:08.480 --> 0:11:11.000 Bob Backash, and now they have kind of this three 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:14.040 headed CEO, so they have three different division chiefs who 0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:17.480 are heading the company as kind of the stop gap arrangement. 0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:20.480 So I think the plan is once David Ellison takes control, 0:11:20.559 --> 0:11:23.719 he's going to have Jeff Shell run the whole thing. 0:11:24.160 --> 0:11:26.679 And remember Jeff Shell used to run NBC, so he's 0:11:26.720 --> 0:11:30.280 extremely familiar with the media business. So that is kind 0:11:30.360 --> 0:11:33.280 of the tentative plan. But again we'll have to say. 0:11:33.280 --> 0:11:36.120 And I think the reason why Sherry Redstone prefers the 0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:38.640 sky Dance plan to let's say, the Sony Apollo plan, 0:11:38.720 --> 0:11:42.719 which actually gave better financial terms to the rest of 0:11:42.760 --> 0:11:44.920 the shareholders, was because they were really looking to sell 0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:46.720 a lot of the assets and only keep the studio. 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:49.920 I think what Skydance has promised Sherry is that they 0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:54.360 will keep the company pretty much intact before they start 0:11:54.440 --> 0:11:57.319 looking to kind of dispose of assets. And I think 0:11:57.360 --> 0:11:59.400 that was very important for Sherry and kind of her 0:11:59.559 --> 0:12:01.440 preserve her her family's legacy. 0:12:01.679 --> 0:12:04.439 So one key point though, was the majority of the 0:12:04.559 --> 0:12:07.160 minority of the voting shares won't have to vote on 0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:09.800 this deal. How are the majority of the minority voting 0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:11.120 shareholders going to feel about that? 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:15.520 Not good? And that's been the feeling all true, right 0:12:15.600 --> 0:12:18.880 because this was Sherry Redstone basically having her payday at 0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:22.160 the expense of everybody else, and so they have been threatening. 0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:25.240 You know, Mario Gabelli especially has been extremely vocal about this. 0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:27.920 He has been threatening litigation. He said, don't go down 0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:31.000 this path with sky Dance because I'm definitely going to 0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:33.160 sue you. Everybody else is going to sue you as well. 0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:37.960 So you know, obviously they do not like this, which 0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:39.640 is why you know sky Dance was kind of putting 0:12:39.640 --> 0:12:41.720 in all of these different deal sweeteners for the Class 0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:46.280 B shareholders, even for the Class A shareholders. But again, 0:12:46.280 --> 0:12:49.559 I think Shary Redstone, especially when you know about three 0:12:49.559 --> 0:12:52.079 weeks ago when she said no, was again scared of 0:12:52.360 --> 0:12:54.199 all the litigation that was going to come her way. 0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:55.920 And I think the other thing that has happened Alex 0:12:55.920 --> 0:12:59.120 over the past few days is, you know, the regulatory environment. 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:01.360 I think there's a whole different perspective of what might 0:13:01.480 --> 0:13:03.640 happen in Washington right now. So I think initially we 0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:05.719 were kind of looking at a regulatory process that was 0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:09.199 going to be extremely difficult for these companies across the 0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:12.600 finish line. If you have a Trump administration, that whole 0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:16.199 climate definitely changes. It eases things up. It's pro consolidation. 0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:18.560 So I think maybe that these companies are looking at 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:20.120 it from that perspective as well. 0:13:20.240 --> 0:13:21.880 That's interesting. I mean, that's a big bet to make 0:13:21.920 --> 0:13:24.800 ahead of an election where a lot can still happen. 0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:29.800 I think many people would argue, Gita, this is I 0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:31.079 don't have to tell you this, and I don't have 0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:34.120 to tell much of our audience this. But media is 0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:37.320 a tough business right now, and I'm wondering what makes 0:13:37.400 --> 0:13:41.439 these assets attractive to this buyer. We're in an environment 0:13:41.480 --> 0:13:45.760 where we're seeing traditional linear TV just completely fall apart. 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:49.360 The movie business is being taken on by the it's 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:51.959 not even fair to call them upstarts, but the streamers, 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:56.280 the legacy companies are trying to adapt to become streamers, 0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:59.480 with very mixed success. I think it's fair to say, 0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:03.280 what are the attractive parts of Paramount's business. 0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:07.160 Yeah, so definitely not the TV networks. I mean one 0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:08.040 could argue that. 0:14:08.200 --> 0:14:11.480 Okay, Survivor is still awesome. Okay, let's just put it 0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:13.640 out there. You know how I feel about this, KEITHA. 0:14:14.520 --> 0:14:17.360 Yeah, Well, CBS I was I was going to say, 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:20.640 CBS is actually the one crown jewel in the whole 0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:24.040 Paramount TV portfolio. And obviously that has you know, Survivor, 0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:26.760 that has all of the NFL, all of the sports, right, 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:30.880 it has a pretty pretty robust news lineup, so you know, 0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:33.080 when it comes to sports and news which CBS has, 0:14:33.160 --> 0:14:36.040 they're actually in a good place. It's the rest of 0:14:36.200 --> 0:14:39.680 the Paramount and the Viacom cable networks that are really 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:42.560 not in such a good place, which is you know, Nickelodeon, 0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:46.760 Comedy Central, you know, MTV, VH one, all of these 0:14:46.840 --> 0:14:50.080 other channels which are general entertainment channels which have basically 0:14:50.160 --> 0:14:54.240 been exposed to the most rapid kind of deterioration in 0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:57.800 terms of audiences. So obviously that part of the business, 0:14:57.840 --> 0:15:00.640 I'm not really sure who would really want. Maybe Warner 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:03.000 Brothers Discovery, maybe they see that there's you know, they 0:15:03.000 --> 0:15:06.080 could potentially be some kind of synergies there. But again 0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:08.120 sky Dance, I know has not you know, is not 0:15:08.240 --> 0:15:10.880 obviously very excited about that. The one ascid that sky 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:14.040 Dance is definitely very excited about is the studio. And 0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:16.960 remember they've had a long history with Paramount. I mean 0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:19.040 they've financed so many of the movies, whether you know 0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:21.160 it's Transformers or Mission Impossible. 0:15:21.400 --> 0:15:23.440 So they did the New Top Gun too. 0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:26.800 H Yeah, Okay, New Top Gun as well. So they've 0:15:26.880 --> 0:15:29.280 had a long history with Cherry Redstone with the Paramount 0:15:29.400 --> 0:15:31.360 studio business. And remember, at the end of the day, 0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:34.920 content is king and they know that. And you know, 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:38.880 whether the Paramount plus streaming service works or not, I mean, 0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:41.000 this content is still valuable and they could sell it 0:15:41.000 --> 0:15:42.680 to Amazon, they could sell a lot of this content 0:15:42.720 --> 0:15:45.280 to Netflix. They're already doing some deals. But again, the 0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:49.080 content is definitely valuable, and there is definitely this arms 0:15:49.200 --> 0:15:52.600 race for content. So you know, I think they definitely 0:15:52.680 --> 0:15:55.800 want the content production piece of it. Again, You're absolutely 0:15:55.920 --> 0:15:57.320 right that the TV networks is going to be a 0:15:57.360 --> 0:15:59.280 little bit hard, But I think that's what Cherry Redstone 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:01.840 also realizes, and she realizes that the longer this process 0:16:01.920 --> 0:16:04.160 kind of drags out, the less and less valuable those 0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:05.000 assets are going to be. 0:16:05.400 --> 0:16:08.040 Do we think that Paramount stands a chance? Like what, Okay, 0:16:08.120 --> 0:16:10.600 let's just say this actually happens, what's your time frame, Like, 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:12.280 let's give them a year, six months? 0:16:13.080 --> 0:16:14.480 You mean as a standalone company. 0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:16.880 Yeah, like until you say, okay, this deal is a 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:18.560 success or the deal was not a success. 0:16:18.640 --> 0:16:21.400 Yeah, oh okay, okay. So once the deal actually goes through, Yeah, 0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:23.440 I think you know, it would take at least about 0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:25.480 twelve to eighteen months to kind of get the whole 0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:27.920 integration done and to kind of figure out what the 0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:31.440 path forward would be. So yeah, I think it would, 0:16:31.560 --> 0:16:33.440 you know. And we're also kind of looking at this 0:16:33.640 --> 0:16:36.720 broader media landscape also, Alex, in terms of what could 0:16:36.720 --> 0:16:38.480 happen in terms of other deals, right what is going 0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:40.440 to happen with Warner Brothers, Discovery, what's going to happen 0:16:40.440 --> 0:16:43.600 with Peacock and NBC? And there probably is a whole 0:16:43.640 --> 0:16:46.440 wave of consolidation coming. It's just that the regulatory climate 0:16:46.520 --> 0:16:47.920 right now looks extremely difficult. 0:16:48.200 --> 0:16:50.480 All right, Githa, We really appreciate it. We appreciate you 0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:54.040 and all these circumstances. Either on Nathan Bloomberg, intelligence US 0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:55.960 media analyst. Yeah, I don't have Tim knows this about me. 0:16:56.040 --> 0:16:57.960 I'm a big survivor. I didn't know that about it 0:16:58.040 --> 0:17:00.120 and yeah, well we got into it when I had 0:17:00.120 --> 0:17:02.000 a concussion in November, and then my family and I 0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:05.160 we have like joint surveyor survivor family night. We talk 0:17:05.200 --> 0:17:06.440 about it and we learn things. 0:17:06.520 --> 0:17:09.000 It's like a whole It's like Season in the thirties. 0:17:08.760 --> 0:17:11.880 We Big Bong No. Forty six maybe for we Big 0:17:11.960 --> 0:17:14.840 Bong all over. We're currently watching I think season thirty six. 0:17:14.920 --> 0:17:17.120 We kind of just go where we feel. And then yeah, 0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:19.840 it's a guilty secret that I have that I apparently 0:17:19.880 --> 0:17:20.760 share with all of radio. 0:17:22.240 --> 0:17:26.080 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 0:17:26.240 --> 0:17:29.320 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Effo, Cardplay and enroun 0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:32.359 Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 0:17:32.480 --> 0:17:35.640 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:17:36.840 --> 0:17:40.560 If you go to our EA d go on the 0:17:40.600 --> 0:17:43.480 Bloomberg terminal, you can see the most red stories over 0:17:43.520 --> 0:17:45.760 the last eight hours, over the last one hour. You 0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:47.800 can play around with it. And one thing that you're 0:17:47.800 --> 0:17:49.560 seeing right now is the most red story in the 0:17:49.640 --> 0:17:53.440 last eight hours is JP Morgan's Kalanovic to exit amid 0:17:53.520 --> 0:17:56.480 string of poor stock calls. We're very lucky to have 0:17:56.560 --> 0:17:57.040 it with us. 0:17:57.400 --> 0:17:57.960 This morning. 0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:02.800 Alexandra Semenova. She is Bloomberg Equities reporter and she's here 0:18:03.040 --> 0:18:06.960 in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. This was huge news. 0:18:07.000 --> 0:18:10.639 Congratulations on the scoop. It's got a green bee or 0:18:10.720 --> 0:18:12.800 black b in a green circle on the terminal, which 0:18:12.800 --> 0:18:15.440 means it's a Bloomberg exclusive. You were the first to 0:18:15.560 --> 0:18:18.240 report about this huge news happening. What's going on? 0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:21.720 Yeah, thank you guys for having me on. So obviously 0:18:22.200 --> 0:18:25.680 pretty significant that one of the most prominent forecasters on 0:18:25.760 --> 0:18:27.960 Wall Street is leaving JP Morgan. He's been at the 0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:32.600 firm for nineteen years. He most recently has become known 0:18:32.680 --> 0:18:35.639 for being one of the few remaining contrarions on Wall Street, 0:18:36.040 --> 0:18:38.440 sticking with his s and P five hundred target of 0:18:38.600 --> 0:18:40.919 forty two one hundred. That's a drop of more than 0:18:41.000 --> 0:18:44.520 twenty percent from where we are now before the year ends, 0:18:44.560 --> 0:18:46.840 and it's been a bit of a challenging run for 0:18:46.960 --> 0:18:49.360 him over the last three years. In twenty twenty two, 0:18:50.000 --> 0:18:53.000 he was bullish through much of the route that we experienced. 0:18:53.400 --> 0:18:55.840 Last year, he stayed bearish even as the SMP five 0:18:55.920 --> 0:18:58.320 hundred rows twenty four percent, and then of course this 0:18:58.480 --> 0:19:00.359 year he's kind of stuck with that call in the 0:19:00.400 --> 0:19:02.520 face of the rally, so, you know, I mean, it's 0:19:02.560 --> 0:19:04.920 always a tough job to try to predict the market, 0:19:04.960 --> 0:19:07.720 but especially when you're in a very prominent position like 0:19:07.800 --> 0:19:11.399 that and making calls as a face of JP Morgan's 0:19:11.400 --> 0:19:11.960 research team. 0:19:12.520 --> 0:19:16.160 You know, Alexandra, what I find interesting about Marko Klanovich 0:19:16.400 --> 0:19:19.400 is he was one of the first strategists who sort 0:19:19.400 --> 0:19:23.480 of looked at how some of the big quant funds 0:19:23.640 --> 0:19:25.960 were trading and their influence on the market. You know, 0:19:26.040 --> 0:19:29.760 most strategists look at, you know, what they expect earnings 0:19:29.800 --> 0:19:32.560 per share to do what they expect for you know, 0:19:32.680 --> 0:19:34.800 interest rates, that sort of thing. He really got in 0:19:34.920 --> 0:19:38.959 the weeds on, you know, your volatility targeting hedge funds 0:19:39.040 --> 0:19:44.840 and momentum tracing CTA funds. What exactly in his thinking 0:19:46.080 --> 0:19:48.760 was led him to believe that we're due for this 0:19:48.920 --> 0:19:50.040 bearish turn this year. 0:19:50.359 --> 0:19:53.000 Yeah, I mean, as you point out, Mike, the guy's brilliant. 0:19:53.000 --> 0:19:56.080 He has a PhD in physics. You know, he has 0:19:56.119 --> 0:20:00.240 obviously been very focused on the quantitative aspect of you know, 0:20:00.359 --> 0:20:02.760 all of this. He's been talking a lot over the 0:20:02.840 --> 0:20:05.639 last few years about you know, very low volatility and 0:20:05.720 --> 0:20:07.840 how that's been an issue for market. So that has 0:20:07.920 --> 0:20:10.960 definitely been part of his call recently. You know, he 0:20:12.160 --> 0:20:14.440 is saying that a lot of people are you know, 0:20:14.720 --> 0:20:17.680 too optimistic given the macroeconomic backdrop. He says that we're 0:20:17.760 --> 0:20:21.000 at the end of this business cycle that with sustained 0:20:21.080 --> 0:20:23.639 higher rates, it's going to be very difficult to achieve 0:20:24.040 --> 0:20:26.800 the growth that appears to be priced into equity markets. 0:20:26.840 --> 0:20:29.240 And he was just you know, insisting that eventually we 0:20:29.320 --> 0:20:30.800 will get that drop that he's calling for. 0:20:31.560 --> 0:20:33.080 So if I go to your biopage, just see all 0:20:33.080 --> 0:20:34.720 the stories that you've written in recent days, and you 0:20:34.800 --> 0:20:37.040 have to scroll a lot because you've written so many stories. 0:20:38.440 --> 0:20:41.800 You have an interview with David Kelly JP Morgan Asset 0:20:41.960 --> 0:20:46.840 Management of JP Morgan Asset Management, and his call that 0:20:46.960 --> 0:20:52.040 he shared with you was polar opposite of Marco Kolonovic's call. 0:20:52.440 --> 0:20:55.200 These two guys work at the same firm, they're making 0:20:55.240 --> 0:20:57.840 different calls, they're out there in public. How does that 0:20:57.920 --> 0:21:01.480 relationship work? How does it work that they're they're not 0:21:01.680 --> 0:21:03.760 sort of espousing the same thing. Is it is that 0:21:03.920 --> 0:21:07.200 hard for employees there, like, help me understand how that works? 0:21:07.320 --> 0:21:10.560