WEBVTT - Contact Tracing in Workplaces

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the

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<v Speaker 1>latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,

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<v Speaker 1>all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course Carol that's part of a team of

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<v Speaker 1>twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You can

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<v Speaker 1>also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube

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<v Speaker 1>by searching Bloomberg Global News. Let's set the Business week agenda,

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<v Speaker 1>because we need to figure out what's going on in

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<v Speaker 1>this trade, what's on investor's mind. We've got the perfect

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<v Speaker 1>team assembled to do that. Uh. In the meantime, just

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<v Speaker 1>bring you one headline that the FED will begin buying

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<v Speaker 1>broad portfolio of US corporate bonds. That certainly is going

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<v Speaker 1>to play into the discussions today. Let's talk about what's happening,

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<v Speaker 1>especially on the equity side, with Gina Mark and Adams.

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<v Speaker 1>That's because she's the chief equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence.

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<v Speaker 1>She joins us on the phone from New Jersey, Dave Wilson,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, our stocks editor, author of the chart and

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<v Speaker 1>stock of the Day. Uh, Dave, I want to start

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<v Speaker 1>with you because you heard Charlie break down the numbers,

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<v Speaker 1>the swings that we've been seeing. Take us inside the trade,

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<v Speaker 1>help us understand what's what what lovers are moving here. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it looks like things have just kind of stabilized a bit,

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<v Speaker 1>arguably after you know what we saw on Friday with

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<v Speaker 1>stocks getting off to a pretty good early start and

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<v Speaker 1>then not being able to hang on the gains. Today

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<v Speaker 1>it was kind of the opposite where you had the

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<v Speaker 1>early losses and markets come back. Uh. You see technology

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<v Speaker 1>stocks at the forefront. Today you see communications stocks and

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<v Speaker 1>there we're talking about the likes of Google's owner Alphabet

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<v Speaker 1>as well as Facebook. But it's not like anyone group

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<v Speaker 1>is sort of a standout at this point. It's just

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<v Speaker 1>interesting to see the kind of reversals that have gone

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<v Speaker 1>on today's trading. I mean, you know, early on you

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<v Speaker 1>saw take the travel stocks. I mean, they've certainly been

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<v Speaker 1>among the more valuable shares out there, and they were

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<v Speaker 1>down big time early on, and now you look at them.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, Americans up six tents of a percent. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>Delts is a little changed, and you know cruise lines.

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<v Speaker 1>You've got Cornable down a bit two point three percent,

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<v Speaker 1>but roal Caribbeans barely lower. So you know, we we've

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<v Speaker 1>certainly seen a lot movement in those shares. Uh. Same

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<v Speaker 1>thing with the biggest banks, which are little changed at

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<v Speaker 1>this point after having fallen early on. So a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of recovery going on in today's trading after some early losses.

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<v Speaker 1>Of look mighty familiar in terms of the kinds of

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<v Speaker 1>stocks that we're falling. All right, let's bring Gina Martin Adams.

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<v Speaker 1>Gina Um, you're writing on the Bloomberg. You talk about

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<v Speaker 1>the stocks rebound, stocks bounce back, may remain under fire

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<v Speaker 1>until green shoots emerge. I do feel like we're at

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<v Speaker 1>this juncture. Jason and I were talking about it last week,

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<v Speaker 1>about a week ago exactly that all of a sudden,

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<v Speaker 1>investors were like, wait a minute, like, you know, we've

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<v Speaker 1>gotten way ahead of ourselves. Let's see what the economic

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<v Speaker 1>and corporate profit outlook ultimately is, and we need more

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<v Speaker 1>data on that. I would totally agree. I think what

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<v Speaker 1>actually happened is the first few months of this recovery

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<v Speaker 1>rally was really all about pricing a new Fed policy,

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<v Speaker 1>a new monetary policy regime. Once we got to the

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<v Speaker 1>point where we fully priced extremely low interest race for

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<v Speaker 1>a very long period of time, we sort of lost

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<v Speaker 1>our momentum. And and I think now the next phase

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<v Speaker 1>has to be about, Okay, great, we are willing to

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<v Speaker 1>pay a lot more for equities given just this permanently

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<v Speaker 1>low interest rate landscape, But where is the earnings all

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<v Speaker 1>going to go? And I do think that that's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be the next leg of the rally or not

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<v Speaker 1>rally is sort of the progression of earnings estimates, the

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<v Speaker 1>progression of economic green shoots while we start to see

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<v Speaker 1>some growth, and how does that forecast compare to the

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<v Speaker 1>current consensus expectation, which is sub two percent growth um

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<v Speaker 1>in the next twelve months following the end of this month.

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<v Speaker 1>So expectations are very low, but economic growth is also

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<v Speaker 1>pretty slim, and I think the market is going to

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<v Speaker 1>go back and forth trying to figure out, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>how to pair expectations with reality. So we just got

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<v Speaker 1>to get comfortable with this level of back and forth, Gina,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's some of it. I think also though,

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<v Speaker 1>if you look at things like factor leadership and sector leadership,

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<v Speaker 1>you have seen some rotation back to more stability, more defensiveness,

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<v Speaker 1>sort of the momentum quality, low volatility trait that really

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<v Speaker 1>dominated pre crisis does appear to be making a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit of headway over the last week or so. And

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's really just about stuff like high volatility

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<v Speaker 1>and high bankruptcy risk and kind of low quality stocks

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<v Speaker 1>really ripped out of the march low so much more

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<v Speaker 1>than they normally do in the first leg of recovery

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<v Speaker 1>that I think that segment of the rally got a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit ahead of itself. And that's the segment where

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<v Speaker 1>you would normally see, you know, growth prospects start to emerge.

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<v Speaker 1>But we're really starting to question that segment. So I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's going to be a back and forth and

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<v Speaker 1>kind of choppy your market um for the for the

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<v Speaker 1>factor and sector leaders as well. Hey just quickly, um, Gina,

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<v Speaker 1>just about twenty seconds, when can we expect fairly for

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<v Speaker 1>our companies to start saying, okay, here's our outlook. We

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<v Speaker 1>have an outlook to give you how much when when

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<v Speaker 1>should we expect them to be able to do that? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that you'll hear a little bit more of

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<v Speaker 1>that in the June at the July quarter. Sorry, So

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<v Speaker 1>with the next learning season really kicks off only a

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<v Speaker 1>month from now, a little less than a month from now, shocking,

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<v Speaker 1>and it at that point, I think we'll hear a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit more about Okay, at least for June. What

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<v Speaker 1>did the reopenings from the US look like? What does

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<v Speaker 1>our do our prospects for growth looks like? You know,

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<v Speaker 1>how are we going to do in terms of liquidity

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<v Speaker 1>and leverage? Those types of things are going to start

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<v Speaker 1>to eat out I think in the July quarter. Great,

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<v Speaker 1>all right, thank you so much. Gina Martin, Adam's chief

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<v Speaker 1>Equity Strategies for Bloomberg Intelligence. Joining us on the phone

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<v Speaker 1>from New Jersey, Dave Wilson. This is Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>our next guest, Tom Goodmanson is President CEO at the

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<v Speaker 1>customer experience intelligence company Collabrio. They use AI driven analytics

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<v Speaker 1>and they use it to track customer behavior and sentiment

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<v Speaker 1>and they work with their clients using that information. They're

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<v Speaker 1>based in Minneapolis. That's exactly where Tom joins us on

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<v Speaker 1>the phone on this Monday. Tom, Welcome to Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>Nice to have you here with us. You know, I

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<v Speaker 1>have to be honest with you. I read your website

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of times, read a bunch of your press

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<v Speaker 1>releases and some other information. What exactly do you guys

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<v Speaker 1>do using ai UM to kind of bridge gaps between

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<v Speaker 1>customers and clients. Yeah, thanks, Carol. You know, we we

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<v Speaker 1>really put it simply, we sit in contact centers and

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<v Speaker 1>we're listening to what's going on between the customer and

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<v Speaker 1>the and the agent, and we're helping that it would

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<v Speaker 1>be a better, better insight. And so we're doing we

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<v Speaker 1>provide analytic insights by UH record and then and then

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<v Speaker 1>running it through our engines to do things like predictive NPS. NPS,

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<v Speaker 1>we do predictive scoring, we do predictive how how agents think.

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<v Speaker 1>So we really are trying to get in the minds

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<v Speaker 1>of the agent in order to give a better UH

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<v Speaker 1>situation to the end user. And so this plays into

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<v Speaker 1>one of the terms that we have all started to

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<v Speaker 1>use and come to GRIPS with, which is contact tracing

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<v Speaker 1>so help us understand how it fits into that broader effort. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>So if you think about this is a very heated

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<v Speaker 1>if somebody's calling in and they've got covid um or

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<v Speaker 1>the other is they find out you know, they get

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<v Speaker 1>the people that have been diagnosed, and they find out

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<v Speaker 1>who they've talked to. You have to have a kind

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<v Speaker 1>of a bedside manner. And so we're helping those agents

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<v Speaker 1>train and understand how to how to help. And then

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<v Speaker 1>the AI is ivan to to maybe see trends. So

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<v Speaker 1>we're not just taking the word of the person calling in,

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<v Speaker 1>but we might be able to spot some other trends

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<v Speaker 1>that are going on in a region in an area.

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<v Speaker 1>So are you learning anything so far through that work

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<v Speaker 1>because we're all trying to figure out what happens next here. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>The work we're finding right now is think about how

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<v Speaker 1>much we have to to spin up, right, So the

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<v Speaker 1>work is maybe three to four weeks old in a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of the regions that are just spinning these up

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<v Speaker 1>as we start to open up the world a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit here and so the insights have not started pouring

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<v Speaker 1>in other than people are are scared when they call

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<v Speaker 1>and just trying to provide calming. That's probably the number

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<v Speaker 1>one thing that I'm seeing is just being having a

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<v Speaker 1>calming influence for now. Yeah, you know it's interesting too

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<v Speaker 1>because I think about you guys, you know, play into

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<v Speaker 1>different worlds. You get to you get you have a

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<v Speaker 1>certain window that maybe some of us don't, And I

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<v Speaker 1>do wonder what it says to us about kind of

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<v Speaker 1>where we are in our world, especially as post COVID nineteen.

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<v Speaker 1>We're not done, as many of the doctors we talked

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<v Speaker 1>to and members of the medical community remind us, you

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<v Speaker 1>know that we're not anywhere near to being done, but

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<v Speaker 1>we are reopening and people are making their way back.

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<v Speaker 1>We're trying to figure out, Okay, what does our world

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<v Speaker 1>look like, what does the marketplace look like? What does

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<v Speaker 1>the economy look like? What would you say? You know,

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<v Speaker 1>that's a good question. And if I had the answer

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<v Speaker 1>to that, I'd probably have my employees back at work. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, where people are, people are really cautious. You're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing a lot of excitement. They're they're tired of being

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<v Speaker 1>at home and home schooling and doing all that stuff.

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<v Speaker 1>But then there's that fear factor. Um, We've got a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of things that you know, people feel that they've

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<v Speaker 1>been left out of but they don't know how quite

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<v Speaker 1>to go back. And so I think as some programs

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<v Speaker 1>like this should allow us that confidence that we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to find UH problems and hotspots more quickly we did

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<v Speaker 1>early this year, UH and and allow us to maybe

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<v Speaker 1>give us a little bit of confidence as we go

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<v Speaker 1>back right and to isolate maybe a little bit more effectively.

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<v Speaker 1>And to that end, Tom, I mean, what's your sense

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<v Speaker 1>about who should ultimately be running these types of operations?

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<v Speaker 1>Because I think a lot of people candidly are skeptical

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<v Speaker 1>of the federal government, but we also know that state

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<v Speaker 1>local governments have different levels of funding. What's the optimal

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<v Speaker 1>system from your perspective? You know, from my perspective, it's

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's a public private type UH partnership UM.

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<v Speaker 1>The public good, the health departments and what have you.

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<v Speaker 1>I think they have the data and the know how

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<v Speaker 1>UM companies like ours have the skill to let them

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<v Speaker 1>get to work and do what they do best. And

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<v Speaker 1>then they between the two of us, then spin up

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<v Speaker 1>and partner with business provider outsourcers so b p o

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<v Speaker 1>s to get them the bodies that they need. Because

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<v Speaker 1>this is a body of intensive as you can imagine.

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<v Speaker 1>The CDC and George Washington University say that we should

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<v Speaker 1>have thirty tracers for every hundred thousand residents. That's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of that's a lot of people to get spun

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<v Speaker 1>up to make this work. So the whole idea, right,

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<v Speaker 1>Jason had and I've had tons of conversations about the

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<v Speaker 1>importance of testing and tracing and that's how it's going

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<v Speaker 1>to give the confidence. So you guys are working to

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<v Speaker 1>kind of help work places get those programs in place.

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<v Speaker 1>Just got about forty seconds left here. Yeah, we've got

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we've got We're working really hard to help companies,

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<v Speaker 1>but also the state governments. We've engaged with many state governments.

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<v Speaker 1>We think that that's the right place to put the

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<v Speaker 1>biggest centers because each state, as we've seen, has had

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<v Speaker 1>different approaches to and different outbreaks, and so we think

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<v Speaker 1>that that's the best place to help them. And then companies,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, if they do the next level to help

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<v Speaker 1>their employees is a really important step as well. And

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<v Speaker 1>we should point out that you're partnering with Amazon and

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<v Speaker 1>Trilio to UM work on those virtual contact trace seeing

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<v Speaker 1>operations around the US. UM really appreciated. Excuse me your time.

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<v Speaker 1>Tom Goodmanson is president CEO at Collabrio. He is based

0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:11.320
<v Speaker 1>in Minneapolis and that's where he joined us on the

0:12:11.360 --> 0:12:14.760
<v Speaker 1>phone Jason on this Monday. Yeah. Interesting to see. I mean,

0:12:14.800 --> 0:12:17.480
<v Speaker 1>these are going to be massive logistical and somethings and

0:12:17.520 --> 0:12:20.800
<v Speaker 1>almost infrastructure challenges. If you can't offset that with some

0:12:20.880 --> 0:12:23.720
<v Speaker 1>machine learning, obviously that would make sense. Interested to hear

0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:25.880
<v Speaker 1>how this all goes, because through the summer we're going

0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:27.760
<v Speaker 1>to be the new corporate system that you need you

0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:29.959
<v Speaker 1>to write, another thing that you have to have in place.

0:12:30.240 --> 0:12:33.800
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason

0:12:33.920 --> 0:12:38.520
<v Speaker 1>Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. A big headline crossing this morning

0:12:38.559 --> 0:12:42.600
<v Speaker 1>courtesy of the Supreme Court, a decision that really was

0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:46.640
<v Speaker 1>not expected, and I would say even less expected was

0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:50.880
<v Speaker 1>the breakdown in terms of how the justices voted. Let's

0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:54.559
<v Speaker 1>talk about it with Jeff Green, because this is a milestone,

0:12:54.679 --> 0:12:59.200
<v Speaker 1>it feels like, in terms of rights for workers and

0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:05.840
<v Speaker 1>specifically uh lgbt Q workers. Jeff tell us about it. Yeah,

0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:08.439
<v Speaker 1>I mean the thing that a lot of people maybe

0:13:08.480 --> 0:13:11.319
<v Speaker 1>still don't realize is that in a majority of Americans

0:13:11.360 --> 0:13:17.520
<v Speaker 1>are not protected um from discrimination in this country up

0:13:17.600 --> 0:13:22.160
<v Speaker 1>until well today. Um So if you in many states,

0:13:22.720 --> 0:13:25.199
<v Speaker 1>a majority of states in fact, if somebody wanted to

0:13:25.240 --> 0:13:28.280
<v Speaker 1>fire you for being gay or transgender, it was legal.

0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:31.480
<v Speaker 1>It was little, there was no recourse up until the

0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:34.600
<v Speaker 1>Supreme Court basically said that the nineteen sixty four Civil

0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:39.040
<v Speaker 1>Rights Act can be interpreted to cover LGBT rights as well,

0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:42.040
<v Speaker 1>which makes us, you know, pretty much on par with

0:13:42.080 --> 0:13:45.400
<v Speaker 1>the with the gay gay marriage ruling. You know, it's

0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:48.720
<v Speaker 1>interesting to Jeff that Greg store To writing about this

0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:50.120
<v Speaker 1>today and he says more than half of the U

0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:53.520
<v Speaker 1>s States don't cover sexual orientation and gender identity through

0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:56.040
<v Speaker 1>their own anti discrimination laws, and more than half of

0:13:56.080 --> 0:13:59.280
<v Speaker 1>the nation's eight million LGBT workers live in those states.

0:13:59.320 --> 0:14:04.120
<v Speaker 1>So this is a big, big deal, right yeah, And

0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:08.640
<v Speaker 1>it's um, like you said, unexpected to some degree, um

0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:14.240
<v Speaker 1>with the current Supreme Court configuration. And I mean it,

0:14:13.760 --> 0:14:16.679
<v Speaker 1>it gets most of the workers now are protected. I

0:14:16.720 --> 0:14:19.680
<v Speaker 1>mean that the title title seven, as this nineties four

0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:22.840
<v Speaker 1>laws referred to in shorthand, does not cover people who

0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:27.040
<v Speaker 1>work at companies that have less than fifteen employees. And

0:14:27.120 --> 0:14:31.680
<v Speaker 1>that's still probably around ten to fift of Americans work

0:14:31.720 --> 0:14:35.280
<v Speaker 1>at smaller companies that small majority of Americans worker companies

0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:38.920
<v Speaker 1>with less than a thousand people, So there wasn't a

0:14:38.960 --> 0:14:42.040
<v Speaker 1>lot of protection for people who worked at the smallest companies.

0:14:42.080 --> 0:14:44.560
<v Speaker 1>Most of the large corporations, like most of the Fortune

0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:47.960
<v Speaker 1>five hundred SMP five already have some sort of a

0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:53.200
<v Speaker 1>regulation protecting LGBT workers. So the law was really meant

0:14:53.480 --> 0:14:56.080
<v Speaker 1>to protect you know that the law really was sort

0:14:56.120 --> 0:14:59.760
<v Speaker 1>of not covering people who were outside of those big

0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:04.920
<v Speaker 1>and so what does this mean? You know, Jeff, you

0:15:04.960 --> 0:15:06.640
<v Speaker 1>and your team do such a great job sort of

0:15:06.680 --> 0:15:10.880
<v Speaker 1>covering diversity in all of its aspects on the managing

0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:13.240
<v Speaker 1>university team at Bloomberg, and I do wonder is you

0:15:13.280 --> 0:15:16.840
<v Speaker 1>guys have talked about it. What are the practical uh

0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:21.320
<v Speaker 1>implications for this? Are there sort of economic factors that

0:15:21.840 --> 0:15:23.880
<v Speaker 1>enter in here? What what does it really mean when

0:15:23.880 --> 0:15:26.640
<v Speaker 1>we get down to brass tax Well, I mean it

0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:32.320
<v Speaker 1>means job security, legal protection for a group of and

0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:35.000
<v Speaker 1>maybe it make it a little more likely that people

0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:36.640
<v Speaker 1>will be out at work. I mean. One of the

0:15:36.680 --> 0:15:40.080
<v Speaker 1>big issues with gay marriage UM was that a lot

0:15:40.160 --> 0:15:45.240
<v Speaker 1>of companies had been offering benefits same sex benefits UM

0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:49.360
<v Speaker 1>and when gay marriage was legal in all fifty states.

0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:51.360
<v Speaker 1>There was this idea that we don't need that anymore

0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:53.600
<v Speaker 1>because now you can get married and get the benefits.

0:15:53.640 --> 0:15:56.160
<v Speaker 1>But a lot of people were concerned that if they

0:15:56.160 --> 0:15:57.800
<v Speaker 1>lived in a state where it was legal to fire

0:15:57.840 --> 0:15:59.840
<v Speaker 1>me for being gay, then I really didn't want to

0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:02.280
<v Speaker 1>betise my marriage or I didn't want to get married,

0:16:02.760 --> 0:16:06.760
<v Speaker 1>so I would lose my my healthcare, um, unless I

0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:08.360
<v Speaker 1>got married, and then I could be fired. So there

0:16:08.400 --> 0:16:10.760
<v Speaker 1>was sort of this catch funny too, and that's now

0:16:11.000 --> 0:16:14.040
<v Speaker 1>sort of taken away, um, at least when it comes

0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:18.240
<v Speaker 1>to domestic implications. There's so global implications to being gay

0:16:18.320 --> 0:16:22.040
<v Speaker 1>and married in other countries, but as of today, for

0:16:22.160 --> 0:16:26.400
<v Speaker 1>most Americans, that is not an issue. Yeah, now it's

0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:28.680
<v Speaker 1>great and uh, we really appreciate you bringing us the

0:16:28.800 --> 0:16:32.080
<v Speaker 1>details of this. Jeff Green Menjing, diversity reporter for Bloomberg

0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:36.520
<v Speaker 1>joining us. Uh from Detroit. This felt seismic in anyways.

0:16:36.640 --> 0:16:39.600
<v Speaker 1>You said it at the top. Unexpected to have, you know,

0:16:40.160 --> 0:16:44.760
<v Speaker 1>Neil Neil Gorsuch, who's conservative to have also John Roberts,

0:16:44.760 --> 0:16:48.640
<v Speaker 1>the Chief Justice, also conservative. Gorsch was the surprise for me.

0:16:48.840 --> 0:16:52.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean, Roberts has has emerged swing vote this swing

0:16:52.280 --> 0:16:55.680
<v Speaker 1>vote right, um, and in many ways, uh, you know,

0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:58.840
<v Speaker 1>seeing Neil Gorsuch not only vote that way but right

0:16:58.920 --> 0:17:02.360
<v Speaker 1>for the majority, right right exactly. I mean that is

0:17:02.400 --> 0:17:05.359
<v Speaker 1>really taking a big step in terms of what that

0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:08.040
<v Speaker 1>decision was all about. And I do think, you know,

0:17:08.200 --> 0:17:10.640
<v Speaker 1>we look at the three branches of our government, um,

0:17:10.680 --> 0:17:12.399
<v Speaker 1>and how they are supposed to kind of checks and

0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:15.359
<v Speaker 1>balances on one another, and this, you know, shows to

0:17:15.720 --> 0:17:18.760
<v Speaker 1>me at least that it continues to be an independent

0:17:18.800 --> 0:17:20.560
<v Speaker 1>Supreme Court, which is such an important part for this

0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:23.280
<v Speaker 1>government functioning. And I do think, you know, when it

0:17:23.359 --> 0:17:26.879
<v Speaker 1>comes to rights of all individuals, I think there was

0:17:26.920 --> 0:17:29.679
<v Speaker 1>a segment of the population that looked at this that

0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:34.520
<v Speaker 1>has been rightly agitated at an upset and at least said,

0:17:34.520 --> 0:17:36.520
<v Speaker 1>all right, here's a little bit of good news as

0:17:36.520 --> 0:17:39.760
<v Speaker 1>we press forward. Yeah, considering certainly that the recent backdrop

0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:44.760
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason

0:17:44.880 --> 0:17:48.919
<v Speaker 1>Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. So no doubt about it. What

0:17:48.960 --> 0:17:51.520
<v Speaker 1>happens from here largely depends on what happens next with

0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:53.879
<v Speaker 1>the virus, the economy, what type of bounce back we

0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:56.000
<v Speaker 1>see as the country in the world reopen depends on

0:17:56.000 --> 0:17:58.800
<v Speaker 1>whether or not people feel safe enough to go back

0:17:58.840 --> 0:18:01.919
<v Speaker 1>to work and resume economic activities. This is happening on

0:18:01.960 --> 0:18:04.080
<v Speaker 1>a day when new outbreaks in the US have some

0:18:04.119 --> 0:18:07.399
<v Speaker 1>states concerning whether to pause reopening. So in today's Business

0:18:07.400 --> 0:18:09.840
<v Speaker 1>Week Economics edition, we thought we got to look at

0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:12.159
<v Speaker 1>where we are when it comes to the virus with us.

0:18:12.200 --> 0:18:15.600
<v Speaker 1>As Michelle Cortez, health science and medical technology reporter at

0:18:15.600 --> 0:18:18.280
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News, she joins us back with us on the

0:18:18.280 --> 0:18:20.960
<v Speaker 1>phone from Minneapolis, Minnesota. Michelle, it is good to have

0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:24.640
<v Speaker 1>you here. Where are we like, you know, people talk

0:18:24.680 --> 0:18:28.359
<v Speaker 1>about second wave reopenings, Maybe we should pause them. What

0:18:28.440 --> 0:18:31.400
<v Speaker 1>are you hearing? What do we need to know? Well?

0:18:31.440 --> 0:18:33.760
<v Speaker 1>I think that what we're learning is that this virus

0:18:33.960 --> 0:18:36.919
<v Speaker 1>is a virus when all the other viruses, as we

0:18:36.960 --> 0:18:40.359
<v Speaker 1>would have expected. The fact that most people in the

0:18:40.359 --> 0:18:45.480
<v Speaker 1>world are still completely vulnerable to this new new type

0:18:45.520 --> 0:18:49.359
<v Speaker 1>of a bug. There's no natural immunity to it. People

0:18:49.400 --> 0:18:52.200
<v Speaker 1>had hoped that because it does fall into this kind

0:18:52.200 --> 0:18:56.919
<v Speaker 1>of seasonal arrangement of viruses, that we would see a

0:18:57.000 --> 0:19:00.080
<v Speaker 1>waning of its impact in the summer months. We're not

0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:02.720
<v Speaker 1>seeing that. We're seeing it's still going from one person

0:19:02.760 --> 0:19:05.439
<v Speaker 1>to the next person. As long as there are people

0:19:05.600 --> 0:19:08.920
<v Speaker 1>to be infected, that virus wants to infect them. And

0:19:09.760 --> 0:19:11.520
<v Speaker 1>we haven't seen a drop, so we're not going to

0:19:11.560 --> 0:19:14.640
<v Speaker 1>see a second peak. We might just see an increasing acceleration.

0:19:14.880 --> 0:19:17.640
<v Speaker 1>But that's what we're looking at, hitting some places harder

0:19:17.680 --> 0:19:21.240
<v Speaker 1>than others. But it has not gone away entirely from anywhere.

0:19:22.119 --> 0:19:24.440
<v Speaker 1>And so Michelle and you and your colleagues have done

0:19:24.440 --> 0:19:27.120
<v Speaker 1>such a good job of synthesizing this. I mean, this

0:19:27.240 --> 0:19:30.359
<v Speaker 1>is ultimately the clash that we are seeing, which is

0:19:30.400 --> 0:19:36.800
<v Speaker 1>public health versus economics and and and economic health. In

0:19:36.920 --> 0:19:40.800
<v Speaker 1>some ways, different states, different localities are dealing with it

0:19:40.840 --> 0:19:43.239
<v Speaker 1>in a different way. What are we learning maybe on

0:19:43.280 --> 0:19:46.280
<v Speaker 1>a on a state by state basis what jumps out

0:19:46.280 --> 0:19:48.400
<v Speaker 1>at you that it sort of gives us a sense

0:19:48.440 --> 0:19:51.040
<v Speaker 1>of where we may be headed. Well, the thing that

0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:53.520
<v Speaker 1>is really jumping out at me is the extent to

0:19:53.560 --> 0:19:59.359
<v Speaker 1>which this is is circumfortble circumfortable for all of us.

0:19:59.520 --> 0:20:02.320
<v Speaker 1>It you have to make your own individual decision. You're

0:20:02.359 --> 0:20:04.240
<v Speaker 1>going to have to make decisions for your family. You're

0:20:04.240 --> 0:20:06.400
<v Speaker 1>going to have to make decisions for your city, your account,

0:20:06.400 --> 0:20:08.240
<v Speaker 1>You're gonna have to make decisions for your states and

0:20:08.400 --> 0:20:11.640
<v Speaker 1>for your country. You really can't get away from that

0:20:11.720 --> 0:20:14.879
<v Speaker 1>when it comes with the situation. Michelle, what do you

0:20:14.920 --> 0:20:17.600
<v Speaker 1>make about the story about Beijing over the weekend and

0:20:17.640 --> 0:20:20.680
<v Speaker 1>that about a new outbreak in Beijing that reached nearly

0:20:20.680 --> 0:20:23.320
<v Speaker 1>a hundred infections over the weekend. They talked about again

0:20:23.960 --> 0:20:27.679
<v Speaker 1>linked to a vegetable market, you know, linked to a market. Um,

0:20:27.720 --> 0:20:30.080
<v Speaker 1>I don't know what is what? How do you take

0:20:30.119 --> 0:20:34.240
<v Speaker 1>that into account? Well, that's exactly the situation right there

0:20:34.480 --> 0:20:38.600
<v Speaker 1>is no escaping this virus. That's what we have learned.

0:20:38.880 --> 0:20:42.520
<v Speaker 1>So we really did think that, you know that they

0:20:42.520 --> 0:20:46.200
<v Speaker 1>were done in China. They had a terrible outbreak in Muhan.

0:20:46.840 --> 0:20:51.359
<v Speaker 1>They closed everything down. They you know, they really handled

0:20:51.359 --> 0:20:54.320
<v Speaker 1>it very aggressively and there was nothing happening there for

0:20:54.400 --> 0:20:57.239
<v Speaker 1>fifty days. They had no cases. But you just have

0:20:57.320 --> 0:20:59.760
<v Speaker 1>to let one or two people in, you get that

0:21:00.119 --> 0:21:03.879
<v Speaker 1>bounding again. And when you still have this completely vulnerable

0:21:03.920 --> 0:21:07.200
<v Speaker 1>population because they haven't had this virus, and that's it.

0:21:07.520 --> 0:21:12.960
<v Speaker 1>Like herd Immunity says, somewhere between six people either have

0:21:13.080 --> 0:21:15.080
<v Speaker 1>to be immunized and you can't do that because it

0:21:15.119 --> 0:21:17.960
<v Speaker 1>doesn't exist, or you have to be infected that's only

0:21:17.960 --> 0:21:21.480
<v Speaker 1>going to give you one outlet. But again, to your point,

0:21:21.560 --> 0:21:23.119
<v Speaker 1>we can't shut down the world, so we're going to

0:21:23.119 --> 0:21:24.920
<v Speaker 1>have to figure out how to live with it. Yeah,

0:21:25.240 --> 0:21:29.639
<v Speaker 1>and so to that exact point, Michelle, what seems to

0:21:29.800 --> 0:21:34.879
<v Speaker 1>have worked from a public health perspective, barring complete shutdown,

0:21:34.920 --> 0:21:37.159
<v Speaker 1>which I think it's safe to say a lot of

0:21:37.240 --> 0:21:41.720
<v Speaker 1>government officials, state officials especially are really resisting, and certainly

0:21:41.760 --> 0:21:43.800
<v Speaker 1>we know that that's going to be resisted at the

0:21:43.880 --> 0:21:48.359
<v Speaker 1>federal level. What seems to be working. It seems like

0:21:48.400 --> 0:21:52.679
<v Speaker 1>this virus is actually pretty fragile. If you hit it

0:21:52.720 --> 0:21:55.760
<v Speaker 1>with any kind of cleaning supplies, it seems to take

0:21:55.800 --> 0:21:58.560
<v Speaker 1>care of the virus if you wear a mask. The

0:21:59.200 --> 0:22:02.280
<v Speaker 1>numbers that were sting, I mean, there were studies early

0:22:02.359 --> 0:22:04.520
<v Speaker 1>on that showed that people who were living with the

0:22:04.640 --> 0:22:07.280
<v Speaker 1>very first people who were infected, when we knew almost

0:22:07.320 --> 0:22:09.879
<v Speaker 1>nothing about it, they could live with somebody who was

0:22:09.960 --> 0:22:12.760
<v Speaker 1>infected in the same household and not pass it along.

0:22:13.119 --> 0:22:17.159
<v Speaker 1>We saw some cases when it came to the destroyer

0:22:17.240 --> 0:22:20.560
<v Speaker 1>and the aircraft carriers. The number of patients who came

0:22:20.560 --> 0:22:23.520
<v Speaker 1>out of that that it was dramatic. If you wore

0:22:23.520 --> 0:22:26.520
<v Speaker 1>a mask and tried to social distance at all. You

0:22:26.600 --> 0:22:29.800
<v Speaker 1>were so much more protected than if you weren't. So

0:22:29.920 --> 0:22:31.439
<v Speaker 1>we're going to have to drill down and get a

0:22:31.440 --> 0:22:34.720
<v Speaker 1>little more clarity on that. But it is undisputably true

0:22:35.119 --> 0:22:38.200
<v Speaker 1>that if you are taking actions to protect yourself, those

0:22:38.240 --> 0:22:41.600
<v Speaker 1>are having significant effects, and you might have even more

0:22:42.040 --> 0:22:45.800
<v Speaker 1>dramatic effects than anyone realizes. So I know that it's

0:22:45.840 --> 0:22:48.399
<v Speaker 1>you know, our country's kind of come divided about whether

0:22:48.440 --> 0:22:50.080
<v Speaker 1>you wear a mask, What does that mean? What is

0:22:50.119 --> 0:22:53.000
<v Speaker 1>that telling other people? But that's the concern I think

0:22:53.000 --> 0:22:55.800
<v Speaker 1>in some of these places like Florida and Texas, where

0:22:55.800 --> 0:22:58.200
<v Speaker 1>we have people going to bars and going to beaches

0:22:58.359 --> 0:23:01.240
<v Speaker 1>and they're not wearing masks, they're not protecting themselves, and

0:23:01.280 --> 0:23:05.640
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing these surging infections. So it's like wearing a seatbelt.

0:23:05.640 --> 0:23:07.040
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's not going to hurt you to word

0:23:07.119 --> 0:23:10.160
<v Speaker 1>at this point, right, It's so simple. And I felt

0:23:10.200 --> 0:23:12.040
<v Speaker 1>like I saw a lot of that over the weekend, Michelle,

0:23:12.080 --> 0:23:14.480
<v Speaker 1>depending on where I was, where people were really good

0:23:14.520 --> 0:23:17.560
<v Speaker 1>about wearing masks. Then I saw people, you know, close

0:23:17.640 --> 0:23:19.880
<v Speaker 1>to one another with their masks kind of half off

0:23:19.920 --> 0:23:23.560
<v Speaker 1>their face and talking and socializing. So and I saw

0:23:23.600 --> 0:23:26.080
<v Speaker 1>restaurants where their tables were out and parking lots, and

0:23:26.080 --> 0:23:28.280
<v Speaker 1>they were well spread out, and they were very clear

0:23:28.320 --> 0:23:31.280
<v Speaker 1>about what you could and couldn't do. Um you know,

0:23:31.440 --> 0:23:33.320
<v Speaker 1>but you're right, it's so simple, Jason. You keep talking

0:23:33.320 --> 0:23:35.239
<v Speaker 1>about that it's not just about protecting yourself, but it's

0:23:35.240 --> 0:23:37.600
<v Speaker 1>about protecting your others by wearing a mask. And also,

0:23:37.640 --> 0:23:39.800
<v Speaker 1>I'm just gonna echo what Michelle just said, wear a

0:23:39.840 --> 0:23:42.520
<v Speaker 1>mask that had said. And and actually I'm going to

0:23:42.680 --> 0:23:45.000
<v Speaker 1>steal that line Michelle that you just used, which is

0:23:45.160 --> 0:23:47.119
<v Speaker 1>it is like wearing a seatbelt. You know, it's partially

0:23:47.160 --> 0:23:49.320
<v Speaker 1>about your safety, but it's partially about the safety of

0:23:49.359 --> 0:23:52.399
<v Speaker 1>those around you. So really appreciate it. Great context. This

0:23:52.480 --> 0:23:54.159
<v Speaker 1>is the conversation we needed to have to sort of

0:23:54.160 --> 0:23:56.800
<v Speaker 1>set the table for where we are, especially here at

0:23:56.840 --> 0:24:00.040
<v Speaker 1>the beginning of the week. Michelle Cortez Health sign to

0:24:00.160 --> 0:24:04.399
<v Speaker 1>me Osiense and Medical Technology reporter for a Bloomberg Award

0:24:04.400 --> 0:24:07.840
<v Speaker 1>winning journalist on this story, She's just been a stalwart

0:24:07.920 --> 0:24:10.640
<v Speaker 1>on this right and if you want things to get

0:24:10.680 --> 0:24:14.359
<v Speaker 1>back to normal, in other words, participate in whether you

0:24:14.359 --> 0:24:16.480
<v Speaker 1>want to be going out to stories, going to restaurants,

0:24:16.560 --> 0:24:19.400
<v Speaker 1>or something, going back to your office. You know, it's

0:24:19.440 --> 0:24:23.280
<v Speaker 1>so simple, wear a mask, and that really reduces your

0:24:23.359 --> 0:24:26.159
<v Speaker 1>risks dramatically and the risks of others, because this is

0:24:26.160 --> 0:24:28.439
<v Speaker 1>what it's all about. Yeah, and I do keep hearing that,

0:24:28.480 --> 0:24:31.320
<v Speaker 1>and I do hope that that continues to build, and

0:24:31.359 --> 0:24:34.239
<v Speaker 1>that's smarter and smarter people continue to pick that up.

0:24:34.280 --> 0:24:36.080
<v Speaker 1>You know, our friends got Galloway. I saw a tweet

0:24:36.119 --> 0:24:38.439
<v Speaker 1>of his over the weekend where he was citing a

0:24:38.480 --> 0:24:41.640
<v Speaker 1>study similar to what Michelle was talking about, where if

0:24:41.680 --> 0:24:44.080
<v Speaker 1>you wear a mask, if you do some basic, very

0:24:44.200 --> 0:24:49.679
<v Speaker 1>basic social distancing stuff, the chances of its spreading are dramatically,

0:24:49.960 --> 0:24:53.600
<v Speaker 1>dramatically lower. Yeah. Yeah, and that's worth noting, especially as

0:24:53.600 --> 0:24:56.280
<v Speaker 1>we're all are kind of just you know, I just

0:24:56.320 --> 0:24:58.800
<v Speaker 1>want to get back to normal. I'm just gonna say it. Well,

0:24:58.840 --> 0:25:02.600
<v Speaker 1>we always love matching up with Andy Brown, and so

0:25:02.720 --> 0:25:06.800
<v Speaker 1>let's continue our discussion around the world of economics, because

0:25:07.080 --> 0:25:12.520
<v Speaker 1>this pandemic has really upset in many ways the economic

0:25:13.080 --> 0:25:17.399
<v Speaker 1>almost ethos of every year that's going on here. Carol Andy,

0:25:17.400 --> 0:25:20.240
<v Speaker 1>of course, is the editorial director for Bloomberg New Economy

0:25:20.320 --> 0:25:24.080
<v Speaker 1>Joints on the phone from New Hampshire. So, Andy, as

0:25:24.240 --> 0:25:26.920
<v Speaker 1>you try and make sense of all of this. We

0:25:27.119 --> 0:25:30.320
<v Speaker 1>rely on you for your column every week to sort

0:25:30.320 --> 0:25:33.480
<v Speaker 1>of set the stage. What were you thinking about this week?

0:25:34.880 --> 0:25:39.520
<v Speaker 1>So really this week thinking about agenda, um, the new

0:25:39.560 --> 0:25:44.320
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg New Economy agenda for the rest of this year. Um,

0:25:44.359 --> 0:25:47.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, which which kind of acknowledges the central reality

0:25:47.880 --> 0:25:52.480
<v Speaker 1>that the global economy is now at this turning point, um,

0:25:52.520 --> 0:25:56.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, and and it faces a whole set of

0:25:56.320 --> 0:26:01.119
<v Speaker 1>really stock choices. And you know, my Michael Bloomberg was

0:26:01.200 --> 0:26:05.200
<v Speaker 1>writing last week in the inaugural edition of Bloomberg Green

0:26:05.280 --> 0:26:08.720
<v Speaker 1>as Phenomenal magazine, and you know, he said he was

0:26:08.760 --> 0:26:11.879
<v Speaker 1>talking about the trillions of dollars that are about to

0:26:11.920 --> 0:26:15.320
<v Speaker 1>be flushed into the global economy, and he was talking

0:26:15.320 --> 0:26:17.840
<v Speaker 1>about the environment. He said, Look, the choice is clear, right,

0:26:17.880 --> 0:26:22.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we either invest in clean infrastructure to create jobs,

0:26:22.440 --> 0:26:26.520
<v Speaker 1>improve public health, or we keep protecting polluting industry. And

0:26:26.520 --> 0:26:28.560
<v Speaker 1>guess what, you know, the Trump administration has chosen to

0:26:28.560 --> 0:26:33.159
<v Speaker 1>bail out oil and and and gas companies. Um. You know,

0:26:33.240 --> 0:26:37.800
<v Speaker 1>but exactly the same set of choices affects area after

0:26:38.080 --> 0:26:42.680
<v Speaker 1>area of the global economy. Well, and you know what's

0:26:42.680 --> 0:26:45.479
<v Speaker 1>interesting too, I do feel like and Andy, we've had

0:26:45.520 --> 0:26:49.639
<v Speaker 1>some conversations Kathy would over at our investment who you know,

0:26:49.920 --> 0:26:53.800
<v Speaker 1>consistently reminds us that during times of stress and disruption

0:26:53.920 --> 0:26:57.280
<v Speaker 1>in our world and our economies, that's when you can

0:26:57.359 --> 0:26:59.720
<v Speaker 1>kind of pivot and make some really big changes. And

0:26:59.760 --> 0:27:02.159
<v Speaker 1>I do feel like, whether it's as you write on

0:27:02.240 --> 0:27:05.720
<v Speaker 1>the climate, whether it's on finance, whether it's on public health,

0:27:05.720 --> 0:27:08.040
<v Speaker 1>whether it's on cities, how we look at things right now,

0:27:08.320 --> 0:27:11.520
<v Speaker 1>we can make some decisions that will really change our

0:27:11.600 --> 0:27:15.280
<v Speaker 1>course longer term. Right well, we we We've just heard

0:27:15.320 --> 0:27:19.119
<v Speaker 1>on the news headlines just just just now how the

0:27:19.200 --> 0:27:21.760
<v Speaker 1>FED is going to invest in a broader range of

0:27:21.800 --> 0:27:26.320
<v Speaker 1>corporate bonds. I mean, so you know, the economist Muhamadada

0:27:26.359 --> 0:27:29.600
<v Speaker 1>Hilarium was writing about this in the Financial Times last

0:27:29.640 --> 0:27:33.800
<v Speaker 1>week and talking about these unprecedented sums of money that

0:27:33.840 --> 0:27:37.560
<v Speaker 1>are being used to plug revenue shortfalls in companies, and

0:27:37.720 --> 0:27:40.080
<v Speaker 1>he said, look, the question is, you know, is it

0:27:40.160 --> 0:27:42.280
<v Speaker 1>are these funds going to be used for short term

0:27:42.320 --> 0:27:46.960
<v Speaker 1>financial engineering, share buy backs, padding the pay of of

0:27:47.080 --> 0:27:50.879
<v Speaker 1>global CEOs, or is it going to be used to

0:27:51.000 --> 0:27:54.879
<v Speaker 1>shore up the fundamentals you know that the long term

0:27:55.119 --> 0:27:58.840
<v Speaker 1>base of the economy. And and surely if you look

0:27:58.880 --> 0:28:02.320
<v Speaker 1>at it that way, Um, you know, an obvious choice

0:28:02.359 --> 0:28:06.240
<v Speaker 1>would be to engineer a new deal for workers, right

0:28:06.320 --> 0:28:09.360
<v Speaker 1>the essential workers who have held the whole thing together

0:28:09.520 --> 0:28:12.359
<v Speaker 1>during this coronavirus pandemic, the gig workers who are now

0:28:12.400 --> 0:28:16.560
<v Speaker 1>out of a job, the migrant workers in developing countries

0:28:16.720 --> 0:28:19.320
<v Speaker 1>all over the world who've been sent back, you know,

0:28:19.400 --> 0:28:21.920
<v Speaker 1>to their to their villages. We need a new deal.

0:28:21.960 --> 0:28:23.760
<v Speaker 1>Are we going to get a new deal out of

0:28:23.800 --> 0:28:27.720
<v Speaker 1>these out of this massive finance, um that that that

0:28:27.880 --> 0:28:31.719
<v Speaker 1>is flowing from from the COVID nineteen stimulus. What are

0:28:31.760 --> 0:28:35.600
<v Speaker 1>the chances? I don't know, you see, I mean, it's

0:28:35.680 --> 0:28:38.719
<v Speaker 1>it's kind of depressing because in an area after area,

0:28:39.080 --> 0:28:41.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, governments seemed to be making the wrong choices

0:28:41.840 --> 0:28:43.880
<v Speaker 1>if you look at trade, you know, I mean, the

0:28:43.960 --> 0:28:46.400
<v Speaker 1>question now is do we do we keep going with

0:28:46.440 --> 0:28:51.600
<v Speaker 1>this multi lateral trading system, which has brought unprecedented global prosperity,

0:28:52.080 --> 0:28:55.440
<v Speaker 1>lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, has

0:28:55.480 --> 0:28:58.800
<v Speaker 1>been a ladder to middle class, middle income status for

0:28:58.920 --> 0:29:01.560
<v Speaker 1>developing countries all over the world. Or are we going

0:29:01.640 --> 0:29:04.880
<v Speaker 1>to turn inward and guess what's happening? We see trade tariffs,

0:29:05.240 --> 0:29:08.080
<v Speaker 1>we see barriers to goods. We see barriers two people

0:29:08.480 --> 0:29:12.400
<v Speaker 1>even at the risk of precipitating a great depression, you know,

0:29:12.760 --> 0:29:16.840
<v Speaker 1>coming out of out of the out of the recession. Um.

0:29:16.880 --> 0:29:19.040
<v Speaker 1>You know, cities, you talk about cities. I was just

0:29:19.160 --> 0:29:22.760
<v Speaker 1>on the on the phone talking to uh uh dr

0:29:22.840 --> 0:29:26.480
<v Speaker 1>Oak Cities Barbos, the New York Health Commissioner, looking at

0:29:26.560 --> 0:29:30.760
<v Speaker 1>the issue of inequality in New York, which is driving

0:29:30.800 --> 0:29:33.720
<v Speaker 1>so many of these street protests. And you know, she's

0:29:33.760 --> 0:29:37.560
<v Speaker 1>from the South Bronx. And in the South Bronx, life

0:29:37.560 --> 0:29:41.280
<v Speaker 1>expectancy there is literally thirty years shorter than it is

0:29:41.320 --> 0:29:46.440
<v Speaker 1>in a place like Greenwich, Connecticut. Right of people living

0:29:46.480 --> 0:29:50.120
<v Speaker 1>in the in the Bronx suffered from food insecurity. You know,

0:29:50.200 --> 0:29:52.080
<v Speaker 1>they're they're the ones that are carrying around the block

0:29:52.120 --> 0:29:55.120
<v Speaker 1>in the in the food lines, you know. And and

0:29:55.400 --> 0:29:57.800
<v Speaker 1>what are we gonna do with inequality and cities? Are

0:29:57.800 --> 0:29:59.600
<v Speaker 1>we going to wait for these for our cities to

0:29:59.680 --> 0:30:02.440
<v Speaker 1>be to be torn apart um? Or are we going

0:30:02.480 --> 0:30:07.600
<v Speaker 1>to fundamentally re engineers and reinvent the education system, healthcare systems,

0:30:08.040 --> 0:30:12.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, to to to reduce these these grotesque disparities.

0:30:12.520 --> 0:30:15.400
<v Speaker 1>That's the choice we face in city, right and as

0:30:15.480 --> 0:30:19.480
<v Speaker 1>in most things, these are big problems, global problems. Uh. Andy,

0:30:19.600 --> 0:30:21.120
<v Speaker 1>I know you guys look at it, and we'll see

0:30:21.160 --> 0:30:24.680
<v Speaker 1>what kind of collaborations we get global collaborations going forward.

0:30:24.680 --> 0:30:26.240
<v Speaker 1>And I know you guys are gonna you guys are

0:30:26.280 --> 0:30:29.120
<v Speaker 1>gonna be covering this, uh in the next year. So

0:30:29.240 --> 0:30:32.040
<v Speaker 1>we'll look forward to that. Andy Brown, thank you as always,

0:30:32.200 --> 0:30:35.320
<v Speaker 1>editorial director of Bloomberg New Economy on the phone from

0:30:35.320 --> 0:30:37.360
<v Speaker 1>New Hampshire. And they're gonna be focusing on those five

0:30:37.400 --> 0:30:41.760
<v Speaker 1>areas Jason, Climate, finance, trade, public health and cities over

0:30:41.800 --> 0:30:43.800
<v Speaker 1>the next year or so. So we'll look forward to

0:30:43.800 --> 0:30:46.600
<v Speaker 1>that continued coverage. It's it's I feel like we're at

0:30:46.600 --> 0:30:51.080
<v Speaker 1>a very important moment in time. Absolutely, no for sure,

0:30:51.240 --> 0:30:56.960
<v Speaker 1>and I think you know, looking at the economy globally

0:30:57.400 --> 0:31:00.280
<v Speaker 1>is more important than ever and that's what we really

0:31:00.480 --> 0:31:08.520
<v Speaker 1>rely on Andy for. As we said ROC Journal, Yeah,

0:31:08.600 --> 0:31:10.600
<v Speaker 1>but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no,

0:31:10.680 --> 0:31:14.160
<v Speaker 1>who's going to dr home? Honey? Please, I'll do the

0:31:14.240 --> 0:31:23.720
<v Speaker 1>riding drivel. I want to drive, Just drive, baby, the

0:31:23.920 --> 0:31:35.040
<v Speaker 1>questions trying. This is the drive to the Globe Commune. Thanks,

0:31:35.080 --> 0:31:38.760
<v Speaker 1>We'll drive us to dawn. On bloom Bird Radio. It

0:31:38.920 --> 0:31:41.320
<v Speaker 1>is time for the drive to the clothes back with us.

0:31:41.360 --> 0:31:44.520
<v Speaker 1>As Mark Travis, He's president and CEO at Intrepid Capital.

0:31:44.520 --> 0:31:47.280
<v Speaker 1>He joins us once again on the phone from Jacksonville, Florida,

0:31:47.360 --> 0:31:49.760
<v Speaker 1>and market is good to have you back with us.

0:31:49.840 --> 0:31:52.520
<v Speaker 1>I gotta ask you first, though, Man, We're seeing headlines

0:31:52.680 --> 0:31:55.760
<v Speaker 1>out of Florida about virus cases and I'm just curious,

0:31:56.200 --> 0:31:59.440
<v Speaker 1>what are you seeing. What's it like in Florida right now?

0:31:59.480 --> 0:32:02.160
<v Speaker 1>Because you know, safe to say, what goes on in

0:32:02.200 --> 0:32:06.120
<v Speaker 1>the virus is going to determine our economic outlook, our capital,

0:32:06.280 --> 0:32:09.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, our corporate profit outlook, business is getting back

0:32:09.240 --> 0:32:12.080
<v Speaker 1>to normal, and ultimately our market outlook. And I think

0:32:12.080 --> 0:32:15.360
<v Speaker 1>the pause in the equity markets really showed that last week.

0:32:15.560 --> 0:32:19.400
<v Speaker 1>So what do you see in Well, interestingly enough, Carol,

0:32:19.680 --> 0:32:24.480
<v Speaker 1>it's probably not only the heat but the unbearable humidity already.

0:32:24.760 --> 0:32:27.560
<v Speaker 1>But in my corner of the Sunshine State, which is

0:32:27.600 --> 0:32:31.480
<v Speaker 1>northeast Florida, um, you know, Jacksonville, Saint Augustine, that area,

0:32:32.040 --> 0:32:34.920
<v Speaker 1>then the number of case has been really quite contained

0:32:35.400 --> 0:32:39.280
<v Speaker 1>relative to Dad and Broward's. So I don't follow on

0:32:39.280 --> 0:32:42.640
<v Speaker 1>a case by case basis in the community, but we've

0:32:42.680 --> 0:32:45.480
<v Speaker 1>we've been very fortunate in terms of number of deaths

0:32:45.520 --> 0:32:48.600
<v Speaker 1>in this part of the state and or cases. So

0:32:49.640 --> 0:32:53.560
<v Speaker 1>maybe we you know, flattened the curve early, uh to help,

0:32:53.720 --> 0:32:58.440
<v Speaker 1>but it doesn't seem to be at least geographically to

0:32:58.520 --> 0:33:02.600
<v Speaker 1>this region. It doesn't seem to be meaningfully impacted. And

0:33:02.720 --> 0:33:06.400
<v Speaker 1>so that certainly is you allude to. Mark isn't necessarily

0:33:06.400 --> 0:33:08.680
<v Speaker 1>the case across the country. And so as you try

0:33:08.720 --> 0:33:13.720
<v Speaker 1>to get a reasonable and honest economic picture and how

0:33:13.760 --> 0:33:19.040
<v Speaker 1>that may play through, whether it's consumer spending or business

0:33:19.080 --> 0:33:22.520
<v Speaker 1>continuity and folks getting back to the office, how do

0:33:22.600 --> 0:33:27.200
<v Speaker 1>you factor that into your investment thesis? Well, Jason, you know,

0:33:27.280 --> 0:33:30.200
<v Speaker 1>I think that um uh. One of my favorite buffet

0:33:30.280 --> 0:33:32.800
<v Speaker 1>quotes among many is when the tiger goes out, you

0:33:32.800 --> 0:33:36.640
<v Speaker 1>get to see who's swimming nack it. And I think

0:33:36.640 --> 0:33:39.640
<v Speaker 1>that what we've done for twenty five years and Trepid

0:33:39.720 --> 0:33:44.200
<v Speaker 1>is focused on free cash flow, rational business valuation, strong

0:33:44.600 --> 0:33:49.040
<v Speaker 1>balance sheets, and so that's coming back into focus. Um

0:33:49.200 --> 0:33:53.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think that, um, so we're we're always

0:33:53.400 --> 0:33:58.640
<v Speaker 1>looking for that and that's um you know, I think

0:33:58.720 --> 0:34:01.120
<v Speaker 1>that's really critical as we go through this. To me,

0:34:01.920 --> 0:34:03.960
<v Speaker 1>who knows if we have a second wave or we

0:34:04.000 --> 0:34:08.360
<v Speaker 1>have a second lockdown, um and how that affects business.

0:34:09.040 --> 0:34:12.680
<v Speaker 1>And to me, it comes back to leverage. And I

0:34:12.680 --> 0:34:14.960
<v Speaker 1>think what's probably helped the market today as you all

0:34:15.000 --> 0:34:18.520
<v Speaker 1>know the markets, you know, preopening, we're off six or

0:34:18.560 --> 0:34:21.640
<v Speaker 1>seven hundred doll points and the Fed came in said, oh,

0:34:21.680 --> 0:34:24.840
<v Speaker 1>they really are going to buy corporate bonds. To me,

0:34:24.880 --> 0:34:27.879
<v Speaker 1>it comes back to debt. And you know, whether you're

0:34:27.920 --> 0:34:31.200
<v Speaker 1>a mortgage holder at a on a mall and you

0:34:31.239 --> 0:34:34.080
<v Speaker 1>know cheesecake factory says, oh, we stopped paying rent on

0:34:34.080 --> 0:34:39.520
<v Speaker 1>our two stores, or you know you're a private equity

0:34:39.760 --> 0:34:42.880
<v Speaker 1>investor with a lot of leverage on top of your equity.

0:34:42.920 --> 0:34:47.400
<v Speaker 1>Everybody's focused on that leverage and supporting the credit markets

0:34:47.400 --> 0:34:50.280
<v Speaker 1>step one. But I also think, frankly that's probably where

0:34:50.840 --> 0:34:53.680
<v Speaker 1>some of the best, better risk adjusted opportunities are for

0:34:53.719 --> 0:34:57.080
<v Speaker 1>people in the capital markets. Okay, so talk to us

0:34:57.120 --> 0:34:59.239
<v Speaker 1>about that. I am curious what kind of moves you

0:34:59.280 --> 0:35:02.160
<v Speaker 1>guys have been doing. You've got a bunch of funds.

0:35:02.200 --> 0:35:04.959
<v Speaker 1>I think you're the lead on the interpred Capital fund.

0:35:05.040 --> 0:35:08.080
<v Speaker 1>There's you guys have a balanced portfolio and you know

0:35:08.560 --> 0:35:11.680
<v Speaker 1>an income fund. So talk to us about those funds

0:35:11.719 --> 0:35:14.680
<v Speaker 1>in particular. What kind of adjustments maybe have you been

0:35:14.719 --> 0:35:18.720
<v Speaker 1>making in this environment. Well, let's talk about the income

0:35:18.760 --> 0:35:22.279
<v Speaker 1>fund first, because what we've always done, Carol is we're

0:35:22.320 --> 0:35:26.480
<v Speaker 1>a short duration, high yield fixed income investors, So our

0:35:26.600 --> 0:35:29.600
<v Speaker 1>duration has always been short, whether it should be or not.

0:35:29.760 --> 0:35:32.800
<v Speaker 1>We're really looking for what I call a three foot puts,

0:35:32.880 --> 0:35:35.360
<v Speaker 1>so we typically don't lend more than about three years.

0:35:35.960 --> 0:35:38.240
<v Speaker 1>I chuckle when I thought about this being the drive

0:35:38.280 --> 0:35:41.520
<v Speaker 1>time because of my next suggestion, I would not suggest

0:35:41.560 --> 0:35:43.719
<v Speaker 1>you in jest before you try to drive, particularly out

0:35:43.719 --> 0:35:47.359
<v Speaker 1>of Manhattan, which would be something that produces a marijuana

0:35:47.880 --> 0:35:50.960
<v Speaker 1>I believe or not. We've found a couple of marijuana

0:35:51.280 --> 0:35:56.759
<v Speaker 1>bonds that we're excited about. The number of medical marijuana

0:35:56.840 --> 0:36:00.359
<v Speaker 1>users in the state of Florida has gone up substantially. Uh.

0:36:00.360 --> 0:36:04.400
<v Speaker 1>There's talk of legislation to allow uh, you know, banks

0:36:04.440 --> 0:36:08.400
<v Speaker 1>to bank producers. And so there are a couple of

0:36:08.480 --> 0:36:11.440
<v Speaker 1>issues here that I think I have merit. One is

0:36:11.520 --> 0:36:17.480
<v Speaker 1>the purely term loan of one of twenty four and

0:36:17.560 --> 0:36:22.719
<v Speaker 1>the other one is um true leave, which is a

0:36:22.760 --> 0:36:26.640
<v Speaker 1>here right in front of me is a also a

0:36:26.680 --> 0:36:29.080
<v Speaker 1>twenty four issue. It's a nine and three quarter of coupon.

0:36:29.239 --> 0:36:35.000
<v Speaker 1>So we think these are very well covered. And there's

0:36:35.000 --> 0:36:38.880
<v Speaker 1>a strong demand for CBD oil and a medical marijuana

0:36:39.480 --> 0:36:41.640
<v Speaker 1>and so those are something a little bit off the

0:36:41.640 --> 0:36:44.680
<v Speaker 1>grid UM that we actually own in our income fund.

0:36:46.560 --> 0:36:49.160
<v Speaker 1>And so where else do you invest in UH in

0:36:49.200 --> 0:36:51.399
<v Speaker 1>a place like this. You know, you talked about balance sheets,

0:36:51.400 --> 0:36:53.960
<v Speaker 1>you talked about free cash flow? Are there? I mean,

0:36:54.000 --> 0:36:56.960
<v Speaker 1>I think you've invested in some of the dollar stores,

0:36:57.200 --> 0:37:01.520
<v Speaker 1>if I'm not mistaken you one that's worked out really well.

0:37:01.640 --> 0:37:04.840
<v Speaker 1>Jason has been Dollar General. You know, as you're probably familiar,

0:37:04.920 --> 0:37:08.239
<v Speaker 1>KKR took a private years back and then has come

0:37:08.280 --> 0:37:10.440
<v Speaker 1>back public and it's done well since thence. So that's

0:37:10.480 --> 0:37:13.480
<v Speaker 1>one that's really worked out. The one that we're still

0:37:13.520 --> 0:37:18.200
<v Speaker 1>anticipating improvement on is Dollar Tree. You know, they merge

0:37:18.200 --> 0:37:22.439
<v Speaker 1>with family Dollar stores, and I think the Dollar Tree

0:37:22.480 --> 0:37:26.279
<v Speaker 1>management has been excellent trying to kind of rationalize the

0:37:26.760 --> 0:37:31.480
<v Speaker 1>family dollar older stores, if you will, UM and and

0:37:31.640 --> 0:37:34.200
<v Speaker 1>refurbish them to the point where they're they're producing like

0:37:34.280 --> 0:37:38.560
<v Speaker 1>they had hoped. UM. But you know, Dollar Tree, it's

0:37:38.600 --> 0:37:41.480
<v Speaker 1>funny if you're for me at all, with UM party

0:37:41.600 --> 0:37:46.520
<v Speaker 1>City things like UM, you know, helium, the supply of

0:37:46.560 --> 0:37:50.720
<v Speaker 1>helium effects stores like Dollar Tree and Party City because

0:37:50.880 --> 0:37:54.560
<v Speaker 1>people go there for for chot skis, for birthday parties

0:37:54.600 --> 0:37:59.360
<v Speaker 1>and what have you. So, but UM, that type of

0:37:59.640 --> 0:38:04.640
<v Speaker 1>disc kind of retailer doesn't is not is um subject

0:38:04.719 --> 0:38:07.680
<v Speaker 1>to being Amazon. In our view if you if you

0:38:07.880 --> 0:38:12.439
<v Speaker 1>follow me and it um, it tends to be more

0:38:12.480 --> 0:38:16.680
<v Speaker 1>impulsive purchase and tends to serve probably a lower income

0:38:16.800 --> 0:38:22.080
<v Speaker 1>strata that is not UM as you know, Internet centric

0:38:22.120 --> 0:38:26.240
<v Speaker 1>of buyer as somebody in your neighborhood might be. Yeah, absolutely,

0:38:26.280 --> 0:38:28.200
<v Speaker 1>all right. Well, as we wrap up, I just gotta

0:38:28.280 --> 0:38:30.400
<v Speaker 1>have I gotta ask you one more question, which is

0:38:30.440 --> 0:38:34.840
<v Speaker 1>in your backyard? Are we going to see what was

0:38:34.880 --> 0:38:37.920
<v Speaker 1>formerly known as the world's largest cocktail party with your

0:38:37.920 --> 0:38:41.280
<v Speaker 1>Georgia Bulldogs playing the Gators this fall? What's your protection?

0:38:41.800 --> 0:38:43.880
<v Speaker 1>You know, it's interesting you mentioned that. I certainly hope so.

0:38:43.920 --> 0:38:46.480
<v Speaker 1>Because the SEC football is such a large part of

0:38:46.480 --> 0:38:49.480
<v Speaker 1>this part of the world. I think the challenge for

0:38:49.520 --> 0:38:52.640
<v Speaker 1>all the SEC schools is a large majority of the

0:38:52.680 --> 0:38:55.520
<v Speaker 1>revenue comes from ticket sales and a people in their stadiums,

0:38:55.520 --> 0:38:58.320
<v Speaker 1>whether it's at the Swamp in Gainesville or in Sanford

0:38:58.320 --> 0:39:03.160
<v Speaker 1>Stadium and Athens Georgia as you mentioned, um, you know,

0:39:03.480 --> 0:39:07.000
<v Speaker 1>so whereas say Sean Khan owns the Jacksonal Jaguars is

0:39:07.040 --> 0:39:09.759
<v Speaker 1>a tv TV contract and I'm not sure they care

0:39:09.760 --> 0:39:12.000
<v Speaker 1>if you show up, but let's hope so, because it's

0:39:12.040 --> 0:39:15.200
<v Speaker 1>one hell of a party it is. Yeah, that would

0:39:15.200 --> 0:39:18.960
<v Speaker 1>be a fun, fun afternoon for sure. All Right, Really

0:39:19.000 --> 0:39:21.160
<v Speaker 1>good to spend some time with you. Mark Travis joining

0:39:21.239 --> 0:39:25.799
<v Speaker 1>us from Jacksonville, President CEO of Intrepid Capital. Thanks so

0:39:25.880 --> 0:39:28.440
<v Speaker 1>much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast

0:39:28.480 --> 0:39:31.120
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0:39:31.200 --> 0:39:33.399
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0:39:33.440 --> 0:39:36.160
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0:39:36.320 --> 0:39:39.200
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