1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,480 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:23,640 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Today is a big day, obviously, 7 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:26,599 Speaker 1: FED a day today. It looks like the FED is 8 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 1: about to give us some more color on how it 9 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:32,560 Speaker 1: intends to look at the interest rate structure out there. 10 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 1: I eat raising rates and that's gonna be some That's 11 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:36,919 Speaker 1: a new environment for a lot of investors out there, 12 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 1: So let's see how financial advisors are talking to their 13 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:43,680 Speaker 1: clients about that. Katerina Simonetti, Senior vice president, Private wealth 14 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:46,319 Speaker 1: advisor for Morgan Stanley, joins this. Katerina, thanks so much 15 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:49,319 Speaker 1: for taking the time here. I'm guessing some of your 16 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 1: investors really don't have your clients, I mean, don't have 17 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 1: a lot of experience investing in a rising interest rate environment. 18 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 1: What are you telling them these days? Matt, thank you 19 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:05,319 Speaker 1: for having me on um. I think it's no surprise 20 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 1: to them that the rates are going up, said has 21 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:12,360 Speaker 1: done a pretty good job setting expectations, and look, you know, 22 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 1: interest rates are going to be going up, and there 23 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:18,559 Speaker 1: is zero reason why they shouldn't be. Um, we really 24 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:20,320 Speaker 1: should not be as low as they are right now. 25 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 1: And yet there is this perceived fear that when the 26 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: race are going to be going up, the market somehow 27 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 1: is going to pull apart. Is it's not necessarily the case. 28 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 1: Rates should be going up, and we're preparing our clients, 29 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 1: and we're preparing the investors who were strategically positioning the 30 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:41,640 Speaker 1: portfolio in light of the rating late. So what do 31 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 1: you do with someone who's you know, looking to retire 32 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 1: in the next decade or two and is worried about 33 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: putting new cash into the market of these high valuations 34 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 1: and obviously also into bonds when rates are rising. Well, 35 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 1: met it's not just the rates themselves, it's also the inflation. 36 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 1: I think that the key of how challenging this environment 37 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:10,960 Speaker 1: is is that we've never had the inflation ory period 38 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 1: with the raids of this slow and specifically for the 39 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 1: in the retirees, the people that are about to start 40 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:20,079 Speaker 1: their retirement and are going to be losing their active 41 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 1: income and switching into more of a passive situation. You know, 42 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 1: the key is to focus on quality, and you know, 43 00:02:26,880 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 1: when we look at strategic positioning of the portfolios and 44 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: specifically at certain sectors that you know are a little 45 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:36,359 Speaker 1: bit stronger, a little bit more defense than the light 46 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:40,079 Speaker 1: of all the challenges that this market present. Our focus 47 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: is on quality and on larger positions large cap for example, 48 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 1: but not just like large cap growth or large cap value, 49 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:52,399 Speaker 1: but on defensive positions specifically. You know, we're looking very 50 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 1: closely at each investments and make sure that the companies 51 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:59,800 Speaker 1: that we invest in have the earning stability, reasonable valuations, 52 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 1: we're not overpaying for them. In the most importantly, companies 53 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 1: with enough pricing power to perform well during this the 54 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 1: average challenge and environment. Because while we absolutely are quite 55 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 1: positive over the market, there is growth in the US 56 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 1: you know that is still strong, that is still going 57 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: to continue is going to be a bumpy right, and 58 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 1: that's would present so many challenges and were preparing investors 59 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:24,519 Speaker 1: for it. So, Katarina, you know, there's I guess a 60 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 1: little bit of a push and pool out there from 61 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 1: some investors who really, since the Gray financial crisis, have 62 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 1: really been successfully invested in the big growth names that 63 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:34,519 Speaker 1: have really driven this market, whether it's an Apple or 64 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 1: an Amazon, or or Facebook or something like that. To 65 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:41,000 Speaker 1: what's really been a good trade over last eighteen or 66 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 1: twenty months, which is more of a a cyclical trade 67 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 1: if you will, um, maybe even you know, betting a 68 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 1: little bit on the reopening of the global economy. Where 69 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 1: are you suggesting, uh your clients think about, Well, I 70 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 1: think it's it's all about the balance, right, and it's 71 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 1: all about being the resoughtful about the portfolio design. And 72 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 1: when we look at the twenty two and to analyze 73 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 1: this amazing growth that we have seen uh in the 74 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 1: market recently, the especially the year end is generally the 75 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:18,719 Speaker 1: good time to kind of just just analyze what happened. 76 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 1: And this is a perfect time for strategic profit taking 77 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:24,040 Speaker 1: because there are some areas, for example, that we're used 78 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 1: to saying that are extremely aggressive, that performed pretty well, 79 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 1: but they are in fact, you know, showing some some 80 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 1: stability and showing some price resilience, and they definitely have 81 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 1: role in the portfolio. But this is a good time 82 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:42,279 Speaker 1: to rebalance, to go back to the drawing board to 83 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: make sure that all the sectors are properly represented in 84 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 1: some sectors that have that positioning into the interlight of 85 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:54,480 Speaker 1: what's happening with the economy. Sectors like financials, like healthcare, 86 00:04:55,000 --> 00:05:00,080 Speaker 1: um inflationary hadgets of such commodities and reads for example, Well, 87 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 1: we want to ensure that we overweight into the sectors 88 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:06,839 Speaker 1: that are either positioned well in light of the rising 89 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 1: grades or present to be good inflationary head just or 90 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 1: like healthcare. You know, the the um, the this this 91 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 1: healthcare crisis that we're experiencing. You know, this this situation 92 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 1: with the pandemic that you know is still going on. 93 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 1: And you know, as much as progress are at healthcare 94 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 1: companies and you know, are just health care communities making 95 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:29,120 Speaker 1: this is still something that is going to be lingering 96 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 1: with us for many years to come. So when we 97 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 1: look at this positioning of the portfolios, whether it's fixed income, 98 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 1: whether it's equity, we need to take inflation into consideration, 99 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:43,599 Speaker 1: the resilience quality and make sure that the portfolio is 100 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:47,200 Speaker 1: strong enough to get us through this period of volatility 101 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 1: that is not over yet. We still have a lot 102 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 1: of challenges out there. Katerina, thank you so much for 103 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:54,800 Speaker 1: joining us. Love getting your perspective here. As you talk 104 00:05:54,880 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 1: to and counsel your clients. Katerina Seminetti, Jesus, Senior Vice president, 105 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 1: Private Wealth Advisor for Morgan Stanley here, like the rest 106 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 1: of us, waiting to see what we will hear from 107 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:06,960 Speaker 1: our Freederal Reserve the sion in a two pm Wall 108 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 1: Street time, and and how that will impact markets going forward, 109 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:14,560 Speaker 1: and how investors should be allocating their capital. Katina deals 110 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 1: with her Morgan Stanley clients, and I'm sure they have 111 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 1: lots of questions, and so we appreciate getting some time 112 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 1: from Katerina. We have read on the screen here not 113 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:24,960 Speaker 1: much to speak about SMP off about about three tenths 114 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:31,719 Speaker 1: of one percent. All right, we have a pretty great 115 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 1: guest for you right now, Sam City, as president and 116 00:06:34,080 --> 00:06:39,160 Speaker 1: CEO of Customers Bank, and they've had a pretty good pandemic. Sam, 117 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 1: looking at your your stock price, you've gone from twenty 118 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 1: bucks basically a share at the end of beginning to 119 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 1: sixty bucks a share basically now. And I see that 120 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:53,719 Speaker 1: some analysts are even raising your price target, uh tow 121 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 1: to seventy five dollars web Bush, for example. We talked 122 00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:59,840 Speaker 1: to Dan Ives from web Bush a lot um and 123 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 1: b Riley has your price target raised to a hundred dollars, 124 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 1: so expecting a lot from customers. Walk us through what 125 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:11,760 Speaker 1: makes Customers different than other banks? Sure? Absolutely, Well, Matt 126 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 1: and Paul, thanks so much for having me. It's a 127 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:16,600 Speaker 1: pleasure to be here. I really appreciate that that introduction. 128 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:21,480 Speaker 1: You know, Customers Bank entered the pandemic as a tech forward, 129 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:23,800 Speaker 1: organic grower, and I think that's really one of the 130 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:26,200 Speaker 1: big things that differentiates us. So in the banking industry, 131 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 1: there's not so much to differentiate yourselves on and a 132 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 1: reasonably commoditized business, so service and technology are big portions 133 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 1: of that. So we started off in the in in 134 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:37,640 Speaker 1: March and April of last year by being a big 135 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 1: player in the Paycheck Protection Program and that really helped 136 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 1: allow us to deliver three thousand plus loans ten billion 137 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 1: dollars of PPP funds out. We also earned origination fee, 138 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 1: which really allowed us to build some capital and support 139 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:55,160 Speaker 1: the future growth of the organization. So being that sort 140 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 1: of tech forward organic grower um with a very strong 141 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:02,680 Speaker 1: digital focus as it is, is really what what Customers 142 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 1: Bank is today. Sam, what are your clients doing these days? 143 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 1: They've just gone through you know, almost two years of 144 00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 1: unprecedented disruption to their businesses. Just give us an overall 145 00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 1: sense of how they're faring. Are they are they trying 146 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 1: to come back, are they trying to invest in their business, 147 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 1: are they trying to expand? Or are they still cautious? 148 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 1: Absolutely so, I think that there's obviously been a little 149 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:26,840 Speaker 1: bit of a change in stands. Will wait and see 150 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: what happens with the Fed UH later today, UM, But 151 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 1: earlier this year there was a strong sense of confidence 152 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 1: emerging inflation. I think that that concern has turned into 153 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: a little bit more of a little bit of a 154 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:44,440 Speaker 1: reality UM sitting where we are today, but overall, the 155 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 1: macroeconomics backdrop is strong. There are challenges with supply chain, 156 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 1: there are challenges with concerns about labor UH and inflation, 157 00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 1: but generally UH, the the sentiment is still positive and 158 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 1: I think that's the that's the importance. We've survived as 159 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 1: an economy, the pandemic, and you know, while they're they're 160 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:08,200 Speaker 1: arguably could have been too much stimulus as leading to 161 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 1: potential non transitory inflation. I think at the end of 162 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:15,079 Speaker 1: the day, it's it's difficult to um to Monday morning 163 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:17,839 Speaker 1: quarterback with certainty I just want to paint a picture 164 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 1: for for listeners of where you're coming from, because you 165 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:25,320 Speaker 1: have a pretty impressive resume. Undergrad at Wharton NBA. From Harvard, 166 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:29,199 Speaker 1: you worked at Providence Equity Partners as well as Goldman Sachs. 167 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 1: You've done real estate focused private equity, You've done blockchain 168 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:38,719 Speaker 1: based real payment services. UM, what do you think with 169 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 1: all of this experience in finance and on Wall Street, 170 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:47,960 Speaker 1: what do you think of something like defy? M so uh. 171 00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 1: I like to firstly say, my resume makes me seem 172 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 1: a lot stronger uh than I am, but note the 173 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:56,200 Speaker 1: less that's that's how my friend. That's very humble of you, 174 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:00,959 Speaker 1: you know. But I think Defied is really a reaction 175 00:10:01,080 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 1: to to where we are from number one, the emergence 176 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:06,560 Speaker 1: of blockchain, because that's really the ledger and the and 177 00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 1: the platform upon which and the infrastructure upon which these 178 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 1: decentralized finance concept is is going to be established. I think, 179 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:16,679 Speaker 1: you know, generally, as you think about if defy it 180 00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 1: is successful in the way that the folks that are 181 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:23,320 Speaker 1: that are um emerging as as important players and platforms 182 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:29,880 Speaker 1: from a decentralist finance perspective, Arguably, centralized finance kee structures 183 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:35,320 Speaker 1: methodologies would would change UM and you may see reversion 184 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:38,840 Speaker 1: back to a different way of doing business, to traditional 185 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 1: forms which are working extremely well. By the way, say 186 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 1: that's that's why I asked, you know, yesterday I talked 187 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 1: to Mike Novigrats. He's got a new office UM down 188 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:49,240 Speaker 1: by Goldman Sachs and he was most pumped about that. 189 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:52,600 Speaker 1: And it just makes me wonder, UM, what the future 190 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 1: of Wall Street looks like? How do you see it? 191 00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:59,960 Speaker 1: You know? UM, At Customers Bank, we we like to 192 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 1: think that this hybrid approach of human based experienced bankers 193 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 1: plus technology and a commercial banking sense is the right 194 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 1: is the right hybrid way to approach the market today. 195 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 1: I think similarly, from an investment banking perspective, you're gonna 196 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,400 Speaker 1: see very similar trends. There's always going to need be 197 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 1: a need for for customized advice, for specific advice, and 198 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 1: for bespoked UM type transactions and service in handholding. It. 199 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:29,760 Speaker 1: It's going to be difficult to completely UM, you know, 200 00:11:30,760 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 1: change the way that that many businesses need to operate, 201 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 1: given the fact that that that there's a lot of 202 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:44,520 Speaker 1: businesses that that have disparate needs and not everything is somotronized. Alright, 203 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:46,720 Speaker 1: never enough time, Sam, but always great talking to you. 204 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 1: Thanks so much for joining us. Sam. To do there's 205 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:51,840 Speaker 1: president and CEO of Customers Bank. Check out the stock. 206 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 1: The ticker is CEU b I trades on the New 207 00:11:55,960 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 1: York Stock Exchange. All right, it is FED day today. Um. 208 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:08,079 Speaker 1: The question is how our investors positioning their portfolios for 209 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 1: what is likely to be a rising interest rate environment. 210 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 1: Let's check out the Brian small Look, Chief investment Officer 211 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 1: of hood River Capital Management. Brian, thanks so much for 212 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 1: joining us once again. You guys at hood River, you 213 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 1: focus on small cap growth stocks. Give us a sense 214 00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:25,560 Speaker 1: of how you think small caps are going to perform 215 00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:28,559 Speaker 1: and what's going to be a different interest rate environment. 216 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 1: So we're constructive on small caps from here, especially after 217 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 1: after this ten percent pullback or so we've seen in 218 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:42,360 Speaker 1: small caps since oh Macron broke and talks of a 219 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 1: FED taper of really heated up here. Valuations have pulled 220 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 1: back pretty significantly to where now small cap trades at 221 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:56,200 Speaker 1: an absolute pe discount on earnings versus the SMP. Usually 222 00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:59,319 Speaker 1: it's at a premium. The market does have to thread 223 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:01,839 Speaker 1: the needle here over the next couple of months with 224 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:04,959 Speaker 1: rising rates and O Macron, which could kind of put 225 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:08,760 Speaker 1: a pause on recovery while rates are going up. But 226 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:12,360 Speaker 1: after that, we think that earning assessments need to move 227 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:16,880 Speaker 1: up and the economy will recover and you want to 228 00:13:16,880 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 1: own stocks and small cat stocks will move up with 229 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 1: those earnings revision. Specifically a good river. We're looking for 230 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:28,000 Speaker 1: a dislocation in of the market fundamentals for that particular company, 231 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:30,719 Speaker 1: which is what the streets expecting, and we're optimists is 232 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 1: gonna be able to find plenty of those opportunities in 233 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 1: twent twenty two. So do you expect a big dip 234 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 1: a correction? Is there is there an opportunity for investors 235 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 1: to buy? So yeah, I mean, I think we're kind 236 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 1: of looking at it here. There's going to be continued 237 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 1: choppinists over the next month or so. You'll probably see 238 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 1: a spike in O Macron cases crowd crowding out Delta, 239 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:57,679 Speaker 1: but thus far the disease looks to be more mild 240 00:13:57,880 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 1: than Delta. We're probably going to have a vaccine ready 241 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:04,680 Speaker 1: in the next days and people are gonna start to 242 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 1: look through that. The FED doesn't have much room to 243 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:11,720 Speaker 1: raise race it looks like without invarying the curve, but 244 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 1: the market is basically saying that it's transitory, and that's 245 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 1: how we're thinking about it. What are some of the 246 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 1: sectors that you think investors should be looking at in 247 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 1: their portfolios in two again, given what looks like to 248 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 1: be a at least for some period of time at 249 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 1: a rising interest rate environment, So we're overweight, and we've 250 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 1: been overweight for the last nine months or so. Cyclical names, 251 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 1: so that would include financials, industrials, consumer stocks, and then 252 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 1: also some semi stocks. Valuation is more important in a 253 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 1: rising rate environments, particularly in small cup growth um so 254 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 1: you want to own names that are cheaper on traditional 255 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 1: valuation metrics like price to earnings. A lot of growth 256 00:14:56,400 --> 00:15:00,040 Speaker 1: investors tend to look at enterprise value two revenues and 257 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 1: and when you have to discount the terminal value out more, 258 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:06,080 Speaker 1: that can make those stocks riskiers. That's why you've seen 259 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:09,120 Speaker 1: software names, for example, pull back a lot and biotech 260 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 1: pull back a lot in this environment because in rising 261 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 1: rates environments is tougher on those valuations. What do you 262 00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: expect to hear from Jerome Powell today? Do you think 263 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 1: we'll get any surprises or does he telegraph everything pretty well? 264 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 1: He tends to telegraph everything pretty well, and River were 265 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 1: not exactly said watching experts were focusing on bombs up, 266 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 1: stock picking and s pundamentals there. But but my sense 267 00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:37,120 Speaker 1: is that he's had to get track wickers there and 268 00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:40,480 Speaker 1: they'll just announce an accelerated taper, which I think is 269 00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:43,400 Speaker 1: what the markets expecting. Is there a risk in your 270 00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 1: mind as you listen to and read FED Chairman Pale's 271 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:51,880 Speaker 1: comments over the last several months, that perhaps he feels 272 00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 1: he's a little bit behind the curve and maybe needs 273 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 1: to catch up and maybe maybe more aggressive than the 274 00:15:56,240 --> 00:16:01,680 Speaker 1: market's discounting. I think that's for sure a risk. He 275 00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 1: basically acknowledged the fact that he had to take the 276 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,800 Speaker 1: word transitory out of their vocabulary. And when you talk 277 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:10,000 Speaker 1: to companies, that's what we're doing every quarter. We're talking 278 00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 1: to foreign companies every quarter. They're seeing real inflation that 279 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 1: they have to handle day to day, and there's no 280 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:21,280 Speaker 1: guarantee that that is transitory. So it's not responsible for 281 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:24,040 Speaker 1: the FED to handle it that way, and they're gonna 282 00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:26,440 Speaker 1: have to make some adjustments and see how see how 283 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 1: it pleased, all right? Brian great having on the program. 284 00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 1: Thanks very much for joining us. Another Harvard NBA by 285 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 1: the way, but I would say more importantly a University 286 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:38,480 Speaker 1: of Virginia undergrad. He's Oahu. But but he's also a 287 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:43,400 Speaker 1: fellow alum of Solomon Brothers like me. Wow. Yeah, the 288 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:46,240 Speaker 1: solid team, all right? Excellent. Brian Smallock is the chief 289 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:50,960 Speaker 1: investment officer at hood River Capital Management, talking to us 290 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:59,040 Speaker 1: about the future of growth and markets. Enough of this 291 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 1: tri state areas stuff out a little bit. Dan Gander 292 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 1: joins us CEO of r n C Genter Capital Management 293 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:13,960 Speaker 1: to talk about his expectations for UM, the FED, the markets, 294 00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 1: and the economy. Dan, we had a very strong pp 295 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:22,359 Speaker 1: I number UM nine point six, nine point seven percent. 296 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:26,160 Speaker 1: I think after a huge CPI number six last week. 297 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:30,800 Speaker 1: Is this gonna push Jerome Powell to be faster with 298 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:34,320 Speaker 1: his taper. Well, I think he's in a position that 299 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:36,960 Speaker 1: he just can't ignore it. I mean, they took an 300 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:40,159 Speaker 1: early position that inflation was going to be transitory. I 301 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:42,680 Speaker 1: think that they're frankly being honest that that's what they thought. 302 00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:45,600 Speaker 1: They didn't really know how things were gonna flesh out 303 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:48,160 Speaker 1: now with the CPI number, as you mentioned at six, 304 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:50,639 Speaker 1: eight with pp I at nine six. You know, we 305 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:53,199 Speaker 1: don't have the new PC number, which is one of 306 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:55,920 Speaker 1: the main things that they look at, the personal consumption 307 00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:58,200 Speaker 1: at spendature index, but that was five percent in October. 308 00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:00,399 Speaker 1: So we're no matter how you look at it, we're 309 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,399 Speaker 1: running double to triple really where they'd like to be 310 00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:05,720 Speaker 1: at two to three percent. So I know, I don't 311 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:07,680 Speaker 1: know how you ignore it. I think it's it's a 312 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:09,119 Speaker 1: matter of what do you do about it? And the 313 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:12,199 Speaker 1: you know, they're the tools are there. You know, you 314 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:15,639 Speaker 1: you finish out the taper even faster, obviously, start to 315 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 1: raise FED funds, and we don't you know, certainly don't 316 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:19,640 Speaker 1: think along with everyone else that we're going to see 317 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:21,800 Speaker 1: an increase in rates at this meeting. But you know, 318 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:24,000 Speaker 1: you you look, you're putting some odds on the table. Now. 319 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 1: You could see something as early as the first quarter 320 00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 1: of two or certainly by the second quarter, and up 321 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:34,520 Speaker 1: until recently two was off the table. So things are changing, Dan, 322 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:37,439 Speaker 1: things are changing it. As you mentioned here, how do 323 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:41,480 Speaker 1: your clients, how are you positioning your portfolio for what's 324 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 1: likely to be, you know, a rising interest rate environment 325 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:46,879 Speaker 1: for the foreseeable future. Well, I think on the equity market, 326 00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 1: there's really not much of a change when you when 327 00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,639 Speaker 1: you look at it historically of what you're likely to 328 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:53,240 Speaker 1: see out of this FED. I mean, when you look 329 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:56,040 Speaker 1: at it historically, typically when there's a major reversal policy, 330 00:18:56,400 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 1: you normally see fifty basis points initially twenty and the 331 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,160 Speaker 1: same thing when they start lowering rates, it's very very similar. 332 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:05,639 Speaker 1: I don't think you're gonna see anything more aggressive here. 333 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:07,360 Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, you might even are much 334 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 1: more likely. You're just gonna see a well telegraphed twenty 335 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:14,360 Speaker 1: five basis points increase, and they'll do that very steadily. 336 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 1: Now with that, if you look at it again historically 337 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 1: from the standpoint of FED policy, is that pees generally 338 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 1: don't change much. You know, what they were at six 339 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:26,560 Speaker 1: months before the FED started the rays and where they 340 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:30,160 Speaker 1: are six months after basically that twelve month window, pea 341 00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 1: stay about the same. So I think the equity market, 342 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:35,159 Speaker 1: you know, we're you know, it will certainly start to 343 00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:37,120 Speaker 1: buy us more the value stocks. It's going to buy 344 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,920 Speaker 1: us more the sixical stocks. You know, we're we've already 345 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,400 Speaker 1: begun tilting more in that direction. You know, the bond 346 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:44,920 Speaker 1: markets a different matter altogether. I mean, you're you're gonna 347 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,440 Speaker 1: have to be very active and what you're doing in 348 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 1: the bond market, you know, as the as the youal 349 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: curves already shifted. What do you expect in terms of hikes? 350 00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 1: I mean you said you don't expect this meeting. I 351 00:19:56,359 --> 00:19:59,680 Speaker 1: don't think anyone does. But um, is the dot plot 352 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,000 Speaker 1: gonna show to this year? Is their possibility for a 353 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 1: hawk is surprise? Look, it's always there. And I think 354 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,439 Speaker 1: that the good thing about Jerome Powell's he's you know, 355 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:11,639 Speaker 1: it's not like dealing with green you know, green speak. 356 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 1: I mean he telegraphs it right out in front. Everything's 357 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:17,360 Speaker 1: I think he's going to give the market a lot 358 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 1: of indication, uh to some degree. Frankly, you know, the 359 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 1: market may even breathe a sigh of relief when we 360 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:25,320 Speaker 1: have that, you know, because the market will take good 361 00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:28,200 Speaker 1: news bad news. It just doesn't like no news. And 362 00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 1: so this this unknown limbo right now is making people nervous. 363 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,040 Speaker 1: So you know, I doubt that we're gonna be see 364 00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 1: something that's going to surprise the market. But him well 365 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 1: telegraphing in advance that they're going to start with the 366 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:43,280 Speaker 1: basis point to increase and FED funds, you know, I 367 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 1: think is what we're going to see. So Dan, all right, 368 00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:48,400 Speaker 1: that's the Fed. And again we're gonna get a lot 369 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 1: more information later on today. The other aspect there are 370 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,399 Speaker 1: One of the other aspects that the market tends to 371 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:55,440 Speaker 1: focus on is kind of what's coming out of Washington, 372 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:59,639 Speaker 1: d c Um. How important is that to you to 373 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 1: this market or do you think the markets again is 374 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:05,000 Speaker 1: pricing in some kind of build back better But there's 375 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,960 Speaker 1: other things to focus on. Well, I think the market 376 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,680 Speaker 1: is definitely pricing it in and the build back better. 377 00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 1: We're look, we're gonna have something now, whether it's a 378 00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 1: two trillion dollar number or a two trillion that really 379 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 1: is four point two trillion when you take the time 380 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,359 Speaker 1: limits off. I mean, we're gonna have something that's going 381 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:23,160 Speaker 1: to come out of that. They're gonna make some kind 382 00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:26,639 Speaker 1: of a deal. But but now, I don't think you're 383 00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 1: gonna see anything very radical, and the reason being is 384 00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 1: that the Democrats right now are in trouble. Look the 385 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 1: way the numbers stack up now is redistricting. They're gonna 386 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:38,719 Speaker 1: lose the House two and so you have a lot 387 00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:41,440 Speaker 1: of people that are midstream that you know, they're they're 388 00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:44,880 Speaker 1: just not going to go hardcore against radical democratic policy 389 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:46,360 Speaker 1: because they don't want to. They don't want to get 390 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:49,560 Speaker 1: washed out. So I'm not expecting anything dramatic. You know, 391 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 1: we were probably the biggest thing the market will be 392 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:55,640 Speaker 1: concerned about, and that's waning is significant tax increases. But 393 00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 1: I mean that that's frankly, it's really dropping off. You're 394 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:00,560 Speaker 1: just you know that that's going down to a whisper 395 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:04,080 Speaker 1: right now. So we don't think right now, barring something unforeseen, 396 00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:06,720 Speaker 1: which can always happen, there's going to be a dramatic 397 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,360 Speaker 1: change of change in policy that will have a significant impact. 398 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 1: All right, thanks very much for joining us. Dan, always 399 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,479 Speaker 1: great talking to you. Dan Genter there, who is the 400 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 1: CEO as well as the c i O and the 401 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:26,080 Speaker 1: chairman of R and C all management. I love. I 402 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:27,640 Speaker 1: mean a lot of people have a lot of titles, 403 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:31,040 Speaker 1: um and I always wonder what else, what else is 404 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:34,359 Speaker 1: he hiding? Exactly based in the based in Los Angeles, 405 00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:36,880 Speaker 1: we get get getting away from the metro area. So 406 00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:39,080 Speaker 1: I think it's great, by the way to have a 407 00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,399 Speaker 1: diversity of views, because if you just stick in the 408 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:44,200 Speaker 1: Wall Street bubble or just in the Tri State area. 409 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,880 Speaker 1: If we include you know, Wall Street, Greenwich and Summit, 410 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,600 Speaker 1: you don't get the viewpoint from the left. From the 411 00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:56,640 Speaker 1: left coast, I'm not necessarily left, obviously, and it's key 412 00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,720 Speaker 1: I think to get Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg 413 00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:03,160 Speaker 1: Mark Gets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews 414 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:07,480 Speaker 1: of Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 415 00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:11,800 Speaker 1: Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three and 416 00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 1: on Fall Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before 417 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:17,680 Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.