Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here
Speaker 1: and we here at Breaking Points, are already thinking of
Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.
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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent coverage.
Speaker 3: That is possible.
Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means
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Speaker 3: But enough with that, let's get to the show.
Speaker 2: Good morning, everybody, Welcome to Spooky Points with Crystal and Sager.
Speaker 2: I am the hidden Indian passenger of the Ghost of
Speaker 2: the Titanic. Sager and Jenny and I have a co
Speaker 2: host today here from Australia.
Speaker 4: What up, everybody.
Speaker 1: Australian break dancing Phenom.
Speaker 4: Raygun right here, right here.
Speaker 1: That's right, took the world by storm with my iconic
Speaker 1: moves and I thought I would join everybody this morning
Speaker 1: to show you a few of those.
Speaker 4: You ready, Are you ready?
Speaker 3: Absolutely?
Speaker 4: Here we go, world, Here we go, Here we go.
Speaker 4: What up, everybody? That's right? I got a little sprinkler
Speaker 4: for you. I got a little sprinkler for you. I
Speaker 4: got a little kangaroo hot for you. I got a
Speaker 4: little Kangaroo Hot for you ready for this one?
Speaker 3: Whoa?
Speaker 1: You were not ready for that? You were not ready
Speaker 1: for that? How about this one?
Speaker 4: You ready? You ready watch this?
Speaker 1: That's right, that's right, that's right, that's right.
Speaker 4: You know what.
Speaker 1: You know what, I got another one for you. Bam,
Speaker 1: that's right, that's right. Give me the gold medal right now?
Speaker 3: Well, I certainly didn't have that at my time at
Speaker 3: the Olympics.
Speaker 4: I mean, she's a superstar, right. I had to go
Speaker 4: with Raygun because.
Speaker 1: She is such an inspiration that literally anyone could make
Speaker 1: it to the Olympics.
Speaker 3: You're absolutely right. For my mind is much less complicated.
Speaker 2: I got this for my wedding, and I just said,
Speaker 2: the only way I can justify this expense is if
Speaker 2: I wear it for Halloween every single day.
Speaker 3: So there we go. That was fun. I enjoyed it.
Speaker 4: Tents around here, so we wanted the lights mood.
Speaker 3: You've got a light in the mood. So what has
Speaker 3: even in the show?
Speaker 1: I've been too Genuinely, I was a little too focused
Speaker 1: on my Kangaroo hops to really think it through.
Speaker 4: But I know we got polls.
Speaker 1: We got Injermentum coming in to talk to us about
Speaker 1: why he thinks the polls could be under estimating Kamala.
Speaker 1: He was right about things in the past that we'll
Speaker 1: talk to him about.
Speaker 4: That Trump was in a garbage truck.
Speaker 3: Trump's in a garbage truck.
Speaker 1: Elon is threatening a severe depression if Trump gets elected,
Speaker 1: as if that's like a positive thing. We got Bill
Speaker 1: Clinton running around really not being helpful in Michigan with
Speaker 1: air of American voters. We got to stop the steal nonsense.
Speaker 1: So anyway, happy Halloween, everybody, hope happen very well.
Speaker 2: I hope that we can raise your spirit, inspire the holidays.
Speaker 2: It's you know, it doesn't always have to be tense
Speaker 2: and can we can still have a good time even
Speaker 2: what is it five.
Speaker 3: Days before the election a something like that. Yeah, it's
Speaker 3: five days before So there we go. We're excited.
Speaker 2: Thank you to all of our premusubscribers breakingpoints dot com.
Speaker 3: You can go ahead and sign up there.
Speaker 2: I guess we should have done to give away like
Speaker 2: a first reveal right in terms of our Yeah, that
Speaker 2: would have been a smart business level, but instead we're
Speaker 2: just over here having fun. So to make up for it,
Speaker 2: go ahead and sign up Breaking Points. We've got a
Speaker 2: great election night show planned for everybody. We're genuinely, really
Speaker 2: really excited for it. So that's right, all right, let's
Speaker 2: go ahead and start.
Speaker 4: Let's do it.
Speaker 1: Actually, one of our premium subscribers sort of inspired this
Speaker 1: whole month.
Speaker 4: That's true that we got a question Ama about like, hey,
Speaker 4: will you guys dress up?
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I was she didn't want to do it.
Speaker 1: I don't know because if there's some I mean, we
Speaker 1: are coming Israel in the show, so it's not like
Speaker 1: there's not serious things in the potential sever your depression.
Speaker 1: So it's not like there aren't serious things in the show,
Speaker 1: and so you can feel sort of like, I mean,
Speaker 1: I do feel sort of ridiculous right at this moment, but.
Speaker 3: What the hell?
Speaker 2: I felt most ridiculous in what the heck because the
Speaker 2: guy looked over at me and started giggling.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: When I was just walking over here in the street,
Speaker 1: I was like, Oh, this is.
Speaker 2: Embarrassing, conceivably something you could ever wear Civilion.
Speaker 4: That's yeah. Actually that's actually what makes.
Speaker 1: It more embarrassing, Yeah, because you, oh, people think I'm
Speaker 1: actually just wearing them, like for real, just wearing them.
Speaker 4: So anyway, we all here.
Speaker 3: We are our spirit here here we are point.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to what is going on in
Speaker 1: the world. Start with some polling.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 1: We had a little snippet from Harry Enton over at
Speaker 1: CNN talking about how if Trump does ultimately win, many
Speaker 1: signs were there indicating that that could possibly be the case.
Speaker 5: Let's take a listen to that percentage of the public
Speaker 5: that thinks that the country is on the right track
Speaker 5: when the incumbent party loses. It's twenty five percent. That
Speaker 5: twenty five percent looks an awful bit luck like that
Speaker 5: twenty eight percent up there, It doesn't look anything anything
Speaker 5: like this. Forty two percent doesn't look anything like this
Speaker 5: twenty eight percent. So the bottom line is very few
Speaker 5: Americans think the country is on the right track at
Speaker 5: this particular point. It tracks much more with when the
Speaker 5: incumbent party loses than when it wins. In fact, I
Speaker 5: went back through history. There isn't a single time in
Speaker 5: which twenty eight percent of the American public thinks the
Speaker 5: country is going on the right track in which the
Speaker 5: incumbent party actually won. They always lose when just twenty
Speaker 5: eight percent of the country believes that the country is
Speaker 5: on the right track. Now, we don't know if Kamala
Speaker 5: Harris is going to succeed Joe Biden. But we know
Speaker 5: back in two thousand and eight George W. Bush, his
Speaker 5: approval rating was down in the twenties. Did a Republican
Speaker 5: succeed George W.
Speaker 4: Bush?
Speaker 6: No?
Speaker 5: How about in nineteen sixty eight Lyndon Baines Johnson, his
Speaker 5: net approval rating was negative. Did a Democrats succeed Lyndon
Speaker 5: Baines Johnson?
Speaker 7: No?
Speaker 5: How about in fifty two Harry S. Truman. His approval
Speaker 5: rating was in the twenties, if not the upper teens.
Speaker 5: Did a Democrat succeed Harry AS Truman in fifty two?
Speaker 5: My memory? No? No is Kate Balwins says Diana. Diana's
Speaker 5: Republicans have been registered voters in big, huge numbers. They
Speaker 5: have been gaining in party registration versus the Democrats in
Speaker 5: the swing states with party registration. We're talking Arizona. I
Speaker 5: think it's a five point they've expanded their lead from
Speaker 5: five points from where it was back in twenty twenty.
Speaker 5: How about Nevada, big Republican registrations there, they liked the
Speaker 5: early vote. How about North Carolina, big Republican registration games.
Speaker 5: How about Pennsylvania. We spoke about it before a few
Speaker 5: months ago, big Republican Party registration gains versus from where
Speaker 5: they were.
Speaker 1: So we're definitely at the point in the election saga
Speaker 1: where there's something for everyone. Absolutely, if you want to
Speaker 1: look at those historical trends, totally legitimate wrong track numbers
Speaker 1: are horrific for Democrats. You've got a very unpopular Democratic incomment.
Speaker 1: And to be honest with you, I do think if
Speaker 1: Kama will lose this as much as these factors that
Speaker 1: we talk about in terms of their you know, totally
Speaker 1: losing the air of American Muslim American vote, turning off
Speaker 1: young voters, like running around with Liz Cheney, all of
Speaker 1: these things are going to matter. But I honestly do
Speaker 1: think that the unpopularity of Joe Biden is the biggest
Speaker 1: weight around her neck.
Speaker 2: Yeah, sometimes the fundamentals are the most important, and we've
Speaker 2: been looking at global trends. You've seen post incumbent parties.
Speaker 2: Mattic Lacius recently wrote about this. Nate Silver also identified
Speaker 2: the trend. But they've lost elections across the entire globe.
Speaker 2: So sometimes that is just a precursor and a signal
Speaker 2: of what is to come now, as you said, there
Speaker 2: are signs for everybody. Let's put this up there on
Speaker 2: the screen, please, Well you can see in this very
Speaker 2: large pole sample we talked a little bit about this
Speaker 2: last time around, some seventy thousand American adults. So that's
Speaker 2: why you should pay attention. This is national likely voters,
Speaker 2: and they have Arizona. I'm gonna read each state. Arizona
Speaker 2: they have Trump at fifty one forty seven, Georgia fifty
Speaker 2: one forty six for Trump. Now in Michigan it actually
Speaker 2: is flipped. They have Harris fifty one Trump, forty six. Nevada,
Speaker 2: this was the biggest surprise for me. Harris fifty one
Speaker 2: Trump forty seven, North Carolina fifty forty eight for Trump,
Speaker 2: Pennsylvania Razor tied forty nine, forty eight for Kamala Harris,
Speaker 2: Texas fifty one to forty seven, and then Wisconsin at
Speaker 2: fifty and forty seven. So clearly what you can see
Speaker 2: is a slight edge for Kamala Harris in the Blue
Speaker 2: Wall States, with the Sun Belt states really moving away
Speaker 2: from her, which would put her around a two seventy
Speaker 2: two sixty eight. In fact, though Nate Silver's new analysis
Speaker 2: has North Carolina as the most likely tipping point state
Speaker 2: at number two. If you do see a shock on
Speaker 2: election night, it could certainly come from there, And that'd
Speaker 2: be a very interesting map, It really would where we
Speaker 2: could see if Kamala was able to flip North Carolina
Speaker 2: but then lose all of the Sunbell states, you would
Speaker 2: have a full on, quote unquote realignment phenomenon where you
Speaker 2: just have this coalition of white, suburban, college educated voters
Speaker 2: who deliver the presidency to her across these four states,
Speaker 2: even though Trump is able to run up his margins
Speaker 2: in all of the Sunbelt and particularly with black and
Speaker 2: Latino men.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Democrats like the gender divide that we've seen in
Speaker 1: the early voting results, and I've even seen some Republicans
Speaker 1: like Cernovich and Charlie Kirk now saying that they're concerned
Speaker 1: about that. Now they may just be saying that to
Speaker 1: try to make sure they're re juicing their voters and
Speaker 1: not giving them a sense of overconfidence, because overconfidence is
Speaker 1: like all that the Trump campaign has been selling. So
Speaker 1: I don't know how genuinely concerned they are, But North
Speaker 1: Carolina is one of those states where there's been a
Speaker 1: significant gender gap in terms of turnout where there are
Speaker 1: significantly more women turning out in the early vote than men. Now,
Speaker 1: early vote, you really shouldn't make that much of it,
Speaker 1: because who knows who's going to sho go up on
Speaker 1: election day and that's all that counts. Like voting early
Speaker 1: versus voting on election day, your vote still only counts once.
Speaker 1: But if you're looking to try to read the tea
Speaker 1: leaves about who's excited, who's turning out their coalition, et cetera,
Speaker 1: that's a sign that's positive in favor of Democrats that
Speaker 1: at least some Republicans are voicing some concern about, Yeah, I.
Speaker 2: Have the early vote female number actually right in front
Speaker 2: of me. So in Georgia the early vote female share
Speaker 2: was fifty six, and twenty twenty it's fifty five percent today.
Speaker 3: In Pennsylvania, this is where it's the most interesting.
Speaker 2: In twenty twenty it was fifty seven, twenty twenty four,
Speaker 2: it's fifty six. Arizona it was twenty twenty fifty four,
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four fifty two percent. So you have a
Speaker 2: majority female early vote all across the board. There's been
Speaker 2: some talk of this whole so co called like cannibalizing
Speaker 2: vote phenomenon. But I'm just not sure how much to
Speaker 2: buy that. It's very clear to me that the country
Speaker 2: just loves early voting.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 2: I mean, you have almost fifty million ballots that have
Speaker 2: been cast across I mean, that's almost one third of
Speaker 2: the entire electorate. You'll have even more in the coming days,
Speaker 2: and then obviously on election day itself, probably what'll be
Speaker 2: going to see maybe not record turnout, but it will
Speaker 2: not be the same as it was previously. So in Nevada,
Speaker 2: I believe some sixty percent of the overall vote has
Speaker 2: already been cast projected vote, so you can really start
Speaker 2: to play with what you want for what the results are,
Speaker 2: which is what John Rawlston has been looking at. But
Speaker 2: there are signs for anybody who wants the tea leaves.
Speaker 2: And I just think the main takeaway is you can't
Speaker 2: be shocked at any outcomings.
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, that's absolutely right, including like a significant blowout
Speaker 1: for either side. Absolutely is in some ways almost more
Speaker 1: likely than the you know, razor thin like they win
Speaker 1: to seventy to do sixty eight or whatever. It's probably
Speaker 1: more likely that all or most of the battleground states
Speaker 1: go in one or the other direction. If you assume
Speaker 1: that there's like let's say it's the you know, twenty
Speaker 1: sixteen or twenty twenty polling this, then you end up
Speaker 1: with Trump sweeping all of the battleground states. If it's
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty two polling this, then you end up
Speaker 1: with comelessly sweeping all but one of the battle ground states.
Speaker 1: So who knows what you're really looking at. Speaking of Pennsylvania,
Speaker 1: could put this up on the screen. This is the
Speaker 1: latest from momth I surprise, they've got it really close.
Speaker 4: I was sorry. This is the ann pole.
Speaker 3: This is actually interesting because it's not tough.
Speaker 1: It's not tied like so many of these polsters. I
Speaker 1: really do buy into the view that many of these
Speaker 1: polsters are very nervous about getting it blatantly wrong, and
Speaker 1: so they're whether intentionally or not, somewhat putting their thumb
Speaker 1: on the scales to make sure that the race is close.
Speaker 1: And so so many of the poles are forty eight,
Speaker 1: forty seven, forty nine, forty nine, et cetera. CNN put
Speaker 1: on a pole that shows, you know, some significant separation
Speaker 1: between Harris and Trump. You've got in Michigan, Kamala up
Speaker 1: forty eight forty three. In Wisconsin, Kamala up fifty one
Speaker 1: forty five. That's one of the states that has seen
Speaker 1: to and some of the polling averages move against her
Speaker 1: a bit, so for them to find her up by
Speaker 1: six year outside of the margin of error is significant.
Speaker 1: But then you've got Pennsylvania tied forty eight forty eight,
Speaker 1: and obviously she's.
Speaker 4: Going to take that blue wall path.
Speaker 1: She has to sweep all of those states, you know,
Speaker 1: assuming she doesn't win the sun melt states, which we
Speaker 1: don't really know.
Speaker 4: Those are all so are very close.
Speaker 1: But these are the states that she's been performing the
Speaker 1: best in buy and large, and they've got Pennsylvania tied
Speaker 1: so incredibly close.
Speaker 3: Oh my gosh.
Speaker 2: Yeah, especially I mean even with Pa and that tie figure.
Speaker 2: I'm just getting really sick of looking at it just
Speaker 2: because there is no indication. I mean, look, last time around,
Speaker 2: obviously everything's been within one point of each other with
Speaker 2: Joe Biden. Same thing in twenty sixteen when Trump eked
Speaker 2: out a win over there. Mamath gives us some similar
Speaker 2: stuff to look at. Let's put this up there on
Speaker 2: the screen. This is specifically the Pennsylvania voter poll So
Speaker 2: what they find here is presidential support, and this is
Speaker 2: included with third party Harris and Trump. So among registered
Speaker 2: voters it's forty six forty seven. Amongst quote extremely motivated voters,
Speaker 2: they have it as a tie. Amongst twenty twenty voters,
Speaker 2: they actually have Trump up by one percent. Amongst twenty
Speaker 2: twenty two, they have Kamala up by two percent. And
Speaker 2: I don't know exactly what this means high moderate propensity voters.
Speaker 2: Whatever the hell that is forty eight forty seven for commas.
Speaker 2: I mean, basically, it's like in that tie tie in
Speaker 2: all of this. I mean, and again, you know, when
Speaker 2: you go early vote diving, you can find whatever you want.
Speaker 2: You can terms look at the female vote, you can
Speaker 2: you can look at rural versus urban. But I think
Speaker 2: one of the main reasons why comparing it to twenty
Speaker 2: twenty is just a real crapshoot is that Republicans have
Speaker 2: dramatically changed their tune on early voting. They have dramatically
Speaker 2: changed the way that they themselves are even looking and
Speaker 2: about turnout and all of that. So, I mean, just
Speaker 2: for example, this morning, I was looking at Georgia. In Georgia,
Speaker 2: the highest percentage of early vote totals is in the
Speaker 2: rural counties, it's not in Fulton, and in the suburban counties.
Speaker 2: It's a lot of elderly whites who live in rural
Speaker 2: districts who have been taking advantage of early vote because
Speaker 2: that's what they were told to do by the Trump campaign.
Speaker 2: Now that really much could put him over the edge,
Speaker 2: considering that they lost by such a razor thin margin
Speaker 2: back in twenty twenty, so it could very be a
Speaker 2: smart strategy. But that's exactly my point is you could
Speaker 2: still turn out quite close and even have some sort
Speaker 2: of democratic surge with early voting or even late later
Speaker 2: early voting and or election day voting. That really comes home.
Speaker 2: That's a big question too about the gender gap. When
Speaker 2: you've got majority female of the electorate in the early vote,
Speaker 2: does that mean that men are going to wait until
Speaker 2: day of? That is problematic just for in general, because
Speaker 2: a you want to bank votes, but stuff happens sometimes
Speaker 2: on election day, well, line is long, whatever, people don't
Speaker 2: want to do it and they just died to go home.
Speaker 2: So you know, all of these things certainly matter on
Speaker 2: the margins.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Ryan made a point on Twitter yesterday that it's funny,
Speaker 1: but also like not without any not without no backing.
Speaker 1: He said, I love my dudes. But if there's a
Speaker 1: nationwide contest between men and women that goes to the
Speaker 1: group that manages to show up at the right place
Speaker 1: and fill out their forms on time and do all
Speaker 1: those things, the men would need to start with an
Speaker 1: advantage of several millions to be competitive. So that's Ryan
Speaker 1: Grimm's take on the gender battle here. But yeah, I mean,
Speaker 1: I think that when we look at all these states
Speaker 1: in the early vote in particular number one, you have
Speaker 1: to keep in mind that in every single state the
Speaker 1: rules are completely different. Some states have early in person.
Speaker 1: Some states don't have early in person, some states have.
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania sort of has early in person. But then it's
Speaker 1: this weird like you have to go and pick up
Speaker 1: an absentee ballot and then like come back.
Speaker 2: And it's not like in person at the same time, right,
Speaker 2: get it and then give it back.
Speaker 1: It's not the same as like you just wait in
Speaker 1: line and like do the thing like you would do
Speaker 1: on election day. Like in Virginia, I already voted, And
Speaker 1: that's how it works. You go in like it's election day,
Speaker 1: and you you know, put in your in the machine,
Speaker 1: and that's that's very simple. It's very simple and easy.
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania is apparently more cumbersome. Some states have more of
Speaker 1: a tradition of mail in balloting. A lot of the
Speaker 1: Western states seem to have more of a tradition of
Speaker 1: mail in balloting, even pre dating the pandemic. And then
Speaker 1: you do still have some partisan differences in people's voting preferences.
Speaker 1: So even though Republicans have been consistently urging early vote,
Speaker 1: the emphasis has been on early in person. So for example,
Speaker 1: in Nevada, you know, which is a state that looks
Speaker 1: the best for Republicans in terms of the early vote.
Speaker 1: The preponderance of the Republican vote is that early in person,
Speaker 1: where Democrats continue to have somewhat of an edge in
Speaker 1: the mail in balloting, and.
Speaker 4: That seems to be pretty consistent.
Speaker 1: You've got Elon Musk and you've got Trump still out
Speaker 1: there swing like you know, concern about mail in ballots.
Speaker 1: So that's been the preference for a lot of Republican voters.
Speaker 1: And then on the Democratic side, I mean remember twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: that was a pandemic, So there were people who turned
Speaker 1: in a mail in ballot then, who normally are in
Speaker 1: person voters who are reverting to back to what their
Speaker 1: previous habits are because they're no longer fearful of being
Speaker 1: around other human beings. So you would expect to have
Speaker 1: some erosion in terms of the Democratic early vote.
Speaker 4: That's why it.
Speaker 1: Really is apples to oranges in terms of comparing the
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four early vote numbers to the twenty twenty numbers.
Speaker 1: So anyway, that's that's what we can say about it.
Speaker 1: I think we have one more like tide pole that
Speaker 1: we could show everybody for what it's worth. This is
Speaker 1: a Marquette Law pole of likely Wisconsin voters. This is
Speaker 1: a five and put this up on the screen, Harris
Speaker 1: a fifty Trump at forty nine within the margin of error,
Speaker 1: so effectively tied. And you also show here a very
Speaker 1: close Wisconsin Senate race, which there have been some indications
Speaker 1: that some the Senate races previously the Democrats outside of
Speaker 1: Montana have been pretty consistently, you know, with a wide margin.
Speaker 1: Wisconsin is one. In Pennsylvania is another where that gap
Speaker 1: seems to have been closing in the final days. So
Speaker 1: we'll see if that ultimately pans out.
Speaker 4: I've also seen.
Speaker 1: Some more positive indicators for John Tester in the state
Speaker 1: of Montana. I've seen a couple polls that have him
Speaker 1: tied with his opponent she he so perhaps giving Democrats
Speaker 1: some bit of hope that they may actually be able
Speaker 1: to hold I.
Speaker 3: Saw that too.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look that the Senate ones there's actually
Speaker 2: not nearly enough high quality polling. I Montana in particular,
Speaker 2: right very notoriously difficult pull a state poll. They also
Speaker 2: usually don't do it at a state level or at
Speaker 2: a national media level because they mostly leave it to
Speaker 2: the campaigns. And then in terms of Ohio, I've seen
Speaker 2: similar stuff where I've seen Shared Brown up by like
Speaker 2: seven points, and then I've also seen it completely within
Speaker 2: the margin of error, and then Bernie Morino's campaign cleaning
Speaker 2: that he is ahead in their internal polls which they released.
Speaker 2: So it's one of those where truly choose your own adventure.
Speaker 2: We have one more flavor of a bunch of tied
Speaker 2: states new Fox News battleground polls.
Speaker 3: Can we put that one up there? Please? What do
Speaker 3: we have?
Speaker 2: Pennsylvania fifty forty nine for Trump, Michigan forty nine, forty nine,
Speaker 2: North Carolina fifty forty nine. So the only one that's
Speaker 2: actually interesting to me there is North Carolina because that
Speaker 2: it was the closest one where they had Trump only
Speaker 2: up by one. We're previously up by almost two to three,
Speaker 2: and every other one that I looked at, considering that
Speaker 2: Joe Biden only or lost it by about a pot
Speaker 2: or point five percent last time, that means that Harris
Speaker 2: very much could be put over the edge in some
Speaker 2: sort of shock victory. Like I said, Nate Silver's new
Speaker 2: election model now has North Carolina has the number two
Speaker 2: tipping point state behind penncyl. In some ways, this is
Speaker 2: not bad for those who are going to watch with us,
Speaker 2: and because we're on East coast time, because we will
Speaker 2: get the returns in pretty soon from Georgia, from North
Speaker 2: Carolina and Pennsylvania, and we won't have to wait forever
Speaker 2: for Arizona. For Arizona, and you know, the Nevada votes
Speaker 2: to come in. If we get, for example, a Trump
Speaker 2: sweep or a likely Trump sweep in all three of
Speaker 2: those states, I you can pretty reliably say, like, what's
Speaker 2: going to happen, although of course you know a lot
Speaker 2: can but in terms. But and then other way, if
Speaker 2: we see major Democratic overperformance. Back in twenty twenty two,
Speaker 2: for example, early night, things didn't look good for Democrats
Speaker 2: because Florida vote came in and it was a red
Speaker 2: blowout for Ron Santis was looking like that way, that's right,
Speaker 2: and then Pennsylvania returns and everyone it was a complete shock.
Speaker 2: Of course, Fetterman ends up winning by five points, which
Speaker 2: we knew relatively quickly on election night there, So keep
Speaker 2: that in mind for you know, don't get don't base
Speaker 2: your Florida conclusion off what happened, or is our Pensylvania
Speaker 2: conclusion off what happens in Florida. My eyes are really
Speaker 2: on North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania in the East coast
Speaker 2: time By around nine thirty ten PM, we're going to
Speaker 2: have a pretty good idea about what's going on there
Speaker 2: and over performance and stuff. And by that time the
Speaker 2: Central time zone will also be come to come in
Speaker 2: as well, and then we'll really see what the phenomenon
Speaker 2: is there in the Blue states.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's greatol.
Speaker 1: Also just a note for everybody programming note, So of
Speaker 1: course we're going to do live election that coverage, which
Speaker 1: were super excited about. We'll have Ryan and I'm only
Speaker 1: here we'll do the whole thing. We're going to have
Speaker 1: Logan in studio breaking down the numbers. That was one
Speaker 1: of the areas that we were trying to improve upon
Speaker 1: from some of the last elections, making sure because it's
Speaker 1: hard for us to like talk and also really stay
Speaker 1: on top of all the data that's coming in. So
Speaker 1: we've got Logan coming into and partnering with Decision Desk HQ.
Speaker 4: They are always very quick in.
Speaker 1: Terms of getting the most updated results, so he's going
Speaker 1: to be manning that and updating us throughout the night,
Speaker 1: which we're very excited about. We're also going to do
Speaker 1: election previews tomorrow with Ryan and Emily, so you can
Speaker 1: take a look for that. And next week we're basically like,
Speaker 1: you know, it may be that we know election night
Speaker 1: what happens, and it's really.
Speaker 4: Clear that is entirely possible.
Speaker 1: It's also entirely possible that we go for a week
Speaker 1: still looking like, oh, they're still counting in Philadelphia, they're
Speaker 1: still counting in Phoenix or whatever. So we're kind of
Speaker 1: all on standby next week to make sure that we're
Speaker 1: able to continuously update you guys and stay on top
Speaker 1: of whatever the news so can lever follow that in
Speaker 1: the meantime. As I mentioned before, I don't know if
Speaker 1: you guys have seen Edin Germentum on Twitter or on substack,
Speaker 1: but his actual name is Josh. He was correct in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two about saying, hey, guys, this does soundok
Speaker 1: like a red wave to me, when we and many
Speaker 1: others were wrong. He also was correct in calling the
Speaker 1: Georgia Warnock election another one that many analysts and polsters
Speaker 1: got wrong. Now Josh it wants Colma to win. He
Speaker 1: is a partisan, so factor that in. But you know,
Speaker 1: he's done some really thoughtful analysis of why it could
Speaker 1: be that the polls are underestimating the Democrats this time.
Speaker 1: Went previously, in twenty twenty and twenty sixteen, they were
Speaker 1: underestimating the Republicans. So we wanted to have Josh and
Speaker 1: to break all of those insights down for us.
Speaker 4: Let's get to it.
Speaker 1: Joining us now by phone, we have Josh aka Eden Germentum.
Speaker 3: Great to have you, sar, Yeah, it's great to be on.
Speaker 1: Yeah, of course, so I just built you up a
Speaker 1: little bit. We can throw this up.
Speaker 4: On the screen.
Speaker 1: A eight guys, A eight, Oh well, we will get
Speaker 1: to this in a second, but the very last element
Speaker 1: of this block is just to give you some cred.
Speaker 1: You called twenty twenty two, right, you said, hey, I
Speaker 1: don't think this looks like a red wave. You also
Speaker 1: called the Warnock race correctly. You've since started a substack
Speaker 1: where you've been delving into how you're looking at all
Speaker 1: of these races. But you've been saying, hey, it's possible
Speaker 1: that actually this time, unlike twenty sixteen and twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: the polls could be systematically underestimating Democrats, which is what
Speaker 1: happened in twenty twenty two. Now I laid out for
Speaker 1: everybody like you're you know, you're a Partison, you want
Speaker 1: Kamla to win. It's so people can factor that in
Speaker 1: as they will. But what is your analysis of why
Speaker 1: you think the polls could be looking more like a
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two mid term miss that underestimated the Democrats
Speaker 1: versus the last times that Trump.
Speaker 4: Was on the ballot.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 8: Well, this chart that you're seeing up here, this actually
Speaker 8: isn't mine. This is by my friend Josh Taft, who
Speaker 8: created this model. I just highlighted for him yesterday. But
Speaker 8: it does illustrate something that I think is an important
Speaker 8: consideration here. So the way this model works you can
Speaker 8: see its past track record in its current projection, is
Speaker 8: that it large it's partially based on polling, but it
Speaker 8: also adjusts that the factor in things like pre election
Speaker 8: indicators from actual voters, specifically special elections and primaries, And
Speaker 8: what we've seen from this model is that that has
Speaker 8: been relatively pretty predictive of whether or not they're the
Speaker 8: polls are massively off. This model, when applied, that the
Speaker 8: data we had in twenty twenty would have correctly like
Speaker 8: in the CAD, that there was something wrong with the polling,
Speaker 8: that pre election indicators like primaries and special elections weren't
Speaker 8: picking up, that the polls that should Biden up by
Speaker 8: eight or seven points were probably off. It would have
Speaker 8: been correct then. It also would have been correct in
Speaker 8: twenty twelve in saying that the very tide polls they
Speaker 8: saw then that underestimated Democrats were not factoring in how
Speaker 8: voters were voting on the ground through that year. And
Speaker 8: what that model says now is that there's currently no
Speaker 8: indication from how voters have been voting in primary elections
Speaker 8: like the Washington primary, which is historically predictive, and in
Speaker 8: special elections, that the polling we've seen with a slight
Speaker 8: Kamala national lead is off in the way that it
Speaker 8: was in twenty twenty. If anything, it probably maybe underestimating
Speaker 8: her by a point or a point and a half.
Speaker 8: So that's just one sign that like these kind of
Speaker 8: canaries in the coal mine for major pro democratic polling
Speaker 8: errors at least on the national level, are not showing
Speaker 8: up right now.
Speaker 3: Got it?
Speaker 2: So, Josh, can you wrote a piece for your substack
Speaker 2: specifically about all of the signs. Could you lay out
Speaker 2: beyond the model, what some of the other things that
Speaker 2: people can look at for the case for underestimating Democrats.
Speaker 8: Yeah, of course so we I think Crystal mentioned that this,
Speaker 8: and I said in the tagline of the article that
Speaker 8: it would be something of a twenty twenty two reducts
Speaker 8: and the thing to look at there isn't national polling,
Speaker 8: which was actually pretty accurate at twenty twenty two. It
Speaker 8: was state polling. Where the argument here from some people,
Speaker 8: some very very pro Democratic people who essentially say the
Speaker 8: party can do no wrong, is that this was because
Speaker 8: there was a flood of red wave Republican polsters who
Speaker 8: were just showing the party up no matter what, and
Speaker 8: the aggregators were too credulous to keep them out of
Speaker 8: their model. Some of these were run by like these
Speaker 8: firms or run by actual high schoolers, and like they
Speaker 8: just included them, and they always showed Republicans had and
Speaker 8: they were wrong. And that happened to a degree. But
Speaker 8: the larger thing that happened that year is that you
Speaker 8: had non partisan polsters with no collection connect the Republicans,
Speaker 8: often responding to the narratives put out by the right
Speaker 8: and in some cases showing massive swings to the right
Speaker 8: at the end of the race, and response to what
Speaker 8: seems to have been just narratives and not what was
Speaker 8: actually going on in the ground. You had in Washington,
Speaker 8: the polls prior to October that year, we're showing the
Speaker 8: race largely what it turned out to be. The Democrat
Speaker 8: they were running for Senate won by about fifteen points.
Speaker 8: But after Republican polsters started showing a tied race and
Speaker 8: there was some chatter about it being a sleeper flip,
Speaker 8: the non partisan posters followed their lead. They didn't find
Speaker 8: leads like as close as what the Republican polsters found,
Speaker 8: but they showed a pretty significant shift to the right,
Speaker 8: and one that didn't happen. In reality, there was no
Speaker 8: movement from the primary that year to the general election.
Speaker 8: The Democrats won by fifteen points both times. And this
Speaker 8: gets into a larger point that I think Nate Cone
Speaker 8: and The New York Times kind of proved to an
Speaker 8: extent when he talked about how posters have changed, is
Speaker 8: that posters are terrified of getting a miss like twenty
Speaker 8: twenty again. They don't think that's something they can afford
Speaker 8: it all reputationally. Con even said like it has mental
Speaker 8: health like problems for them, where they get really upset
Speaker 8: if they miss it that badly, And they are pulling
Speaker 8: out all the stops in a lot of ways in
Speaker 8: a way in some ways that are reminiscent of pastimes
Speaker 8: when they've gotten two in their heads about a polling
Speaker 8: miss in a way that could end up getting them
Speaker 8: on the wrong side of things on the opposite way.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think to me, one of the most compelling
Speaker 1: data points in this direction is what you just laid out,
Speaker 1: which is that we know that posters have actually changed
Speaker 1: their methodology because they're so fearful and they've effectively used
Speaker 1: this methodology of asking people to self recall how they voted,
Speaker 1: which has in the past led to less accurate results,
Speaker 1: consistently less accurate results. But their theory is, listen, there
Speaker 1: could be this group of infrequent and less like sort
Speaker 1: of politically engaged voters that tend to go for Donald
Speaker 1: Trump that we just cannot get in touch with, like
Speaker 1: we just cannot reflect them accurately within our polls. They
Speaker 1: attribute that, you know, potentially that was the twenty sixteen miss.
Speaker 1: Potentially that was again the twenty twenty miss. And that's
Speaker 1: a plausible theoretical possibility. And so they're basically saying, we're
Speaker 1: just going to use this method to juice Trump's numbers,
Speaker 1: to try to Jerry rigg some way to account for
Speaker 1: this vote, this like infrequent voter that we just cannot
Speaker 1: reach and cannot model. The other possibility, and this was
Speaker 1: also laid out by Nate Cohne, is that in twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: In twenty sixteen, the miss was because posters weren't waiting
Speaker 1: by education like college education versus non college. Okay, they
Speaker 1: fix that in twenty twenty, they haven't even bigger miss.
Speaker 1: The other theory is that twenty twenty was obviously during
Speaker 1: the pandemic, and you had a partisan difference in the
Speaker 1: way people responded to the pandemic. So you add a
Speaker 1: lot of liberal, white collar professionals at home dying to
Speaker 1: tell polster is how excited they were to vote for
Speaker 1: Democrats and that that one off phenomenon is what led
Speaker 1: to the miss in twenty twenty.
Speaker 4: So if that's the explanation.
Speaker 1: Then this attempt by polsters to sort of artificially juice
Speaker 1: Trump's numbers may be, you know, correcting for something that
Speaker 1: doesn't need correcting since the pandemic was such a unique
Speaker 1: time period and had this, you know, unique partisan difference
Speaker 1: in terms of how people responded to it.
Speaker 4: You dug into the evidence.
Speaker 1: For each of these possibilities, the just like you know,
Speaker 1: infrequent voter that you just can't model and is more
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly pro Trump than pro Democrat versus the different pandemic
Speaker 1: response bias. What evidence did you find in favor or
Speaker 1: pose to each of these theories.
Speaker 8: Yeah, well, I think it's basically what you said, where
Speaker 8: there's the grand unified theory as as Cone calls it,
Speaker 8: which is that like there's just something about Trump voters
Speaker 8: or just impossible to contact to low social trust you'll
Speaker 8: never be able to reach them through traditional methods, and
Speaker 8: you have to find some way to represent them when
Speaker 8: you're polling. And like, I get that idea in theory,
Speaker 8: I think in a sense it is kind of like
Speaker 8: a lose state understanding that kind of exoticizes Trump voters
Speaker 8: to a degree. I live in a purple state Georgia.
Speaker 8: Trust me when I say that Trump voters are not
Speaker 8: very quiet about who they support is essentially not now
Speaker 8: articularly ashamed of in the way they might have been
Speaker 8: eight years ago. And I just it's He calls it
Speaker 8: the patchwork theory, which I think does it a bit
Speaker 8: of a service. But that's more compelling to me because
Speaker 8: it makes sense. We know that pollsters and in twenty
Speaker 8: sixteen did not wit by education. We know that made
Speaker 8: up for most of the missess that they made. We
Speaker 8: know in twenty twenty there was a major non response
Speaker 8: bias in favor of Democrats, something we're not necessarily seeing now.
Speaker 8: One of the most interesting data points, and I wish
Speaker 8: they did follow up on this because it could be
Speaker 8: a huge deal, was a chart by people from the
Speaker 8: Polarization Research Study looking at partisan response rates to you
Speaker 8: gov polls, and they've found that since about like the
Speaker 8: beginning of this year, the rate of Democrats responding to
Speaker 8: their polls has gone down and the rate of republicansponding
Speaker 8: responding has gone up to the extent that they've had
Speaker 8: to actually await Democratic respondents higher than Republican respondents. So
Speaker 8: this phenomenon, like to the extent that it might have
Speaker 8: happened before, we may not have any proof that it's
Speaker 8: happening now. And we know that you gov has like
Speaker 8: they've shown that they've made changes to account for this
Speaker 8: kind of inverse phenomenon, this like opposite way we'd respect,
Speaker 8: but we don't know that other polsters who may not
Speaker 8: even be as aware of this are are still like
Speaker 8: trying to hedge on the side of caution and react
Speaker 8: to what happened in twenty twenty. If they're doing that properly,
Speaker 8: so quite ironically, and you can say whatever the reason
Speaker 8: for this like might be. I think probably the funniest
Speaker 8: one is that liberal's got the mainstream media after the
Speaker 8: Biden drop out saga where they thought that they were
Speaker 8: trying to end as presidency, that they stop responding to pollsters,
Speaker 8: but like this, uh, that's what I think should be
Speaker 8: the ending of this election, because that's very fun to me.
Speaker 3: That would be genuinely hilarious.
Speaker 9: Yeah.
Speaker 8: Yeah, it's like they got so pissed as reclined they
Speaker 8: stopped picking up.
Speaker 4: The That would be incredible.
Speaker 3: I do have a question for you, Josh, because you're
Speaker 3: in Georgia.
Speaker 2: I'm assuming you know, beyond pulling you and looking at
Speaker 2: early voting, are there any trends there that could pick
Speaker 2: up on your thesis and bear that out.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 8: Well, the early voting here is a really tough one
Speaker 8: to take too much stock. In Georgia does not have
Speaker 8: party registration. You can't track it by like what the
Speaker 8: partisanship like you cant in Nevada. They do have for
Speaker 8: whatever reason. This is probably for not very great reasons.
Speaker 8: They do track voters by race here, which can be
Speaker 8: an interesting heuristic for how the parties are doing because
Speaker 8: in Georgia, deb non whites vote Democratic and white voters
Speaker 8: vote Republican, and elections here can often be just turnout
Speaker 8: battles more than they are persuasion battles, although that's been
Speaker 8: different in recent years where the suburbs have really become
Speaker 8: big battlegrounds in the way that they were before, and
Speaker 8: we've been seeing the black vote here is about in
Speaker 8: line with what it was in twenty twenty among habitual
Speaker 8: early voters. So among the same population that voted early
Speaker 8: in twenty twenty, it's about the same. The difference is
Speaker 8: is that there are a lot of Republicans who voted
Speaker 8: on election day in twenty twenty, a lot of white
Speaker 8: votes who are like I think that of the voters
Speaker 8: who voted on election day in twenty twenty and are
Speaker 8: voting early now, they're like over they're like seventy two
Speaker 8: seventy five percent Republican. So we have a slightly wider
Speaker 8: like voting pool right now in Georgia then we've had
Speaker 8: it like maybe in a couple of cycles. But a
Speaker 8: lot of that is because we have a more depolarized
Speaker 8: early voting elector than we have before. There are a
Speaker 8: lot of Republicans who vote on election day and who
Speaker 8: are voting now. There are probably some Democrats who voted
Speaker 8: early in twenty twenty because I didn't want to get
Speaker 8: COVID through mail, who are going to vote on election day,
Speaker 8: and I would say generally the number you're probably going
Speaker 8: to get about twenty six twenty seven percent black turnout,
Speaker 8: like with the way things are going here in Georgia,
Speaker 8: which isn't like ideal for Democrats, but like it's winnable.
Speaker 8: I think Warnock one with the like was able to
Speaker 8: go run off with similar demographics in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 3: Gotcha very interesting.
Speaker 1: I've seen some theories about a shy Kamala voter this time,
Speaker 1: and some Democratic groups seem to be buying into this idea.
Speaker 1: I'm thinking most specifically of this ad that went viral
Speaker 1: of like women secretly, yeah vote, bucking their husband's will
Speaker 1: and voting for Kamala Harris. And these you know stickers
Speaker 1: that are popping up in women's restrooms that are like
Speaker 1: your vote secret, don't worry, you can vote for Kamala
Speaker 1: and not.
Speaker 4: Feel bad about it.
Speaker 1: So clearly some parts of the Democratic coalition believe that
Speaker 1: this could be a thing of like Nikki Hayley, voters
Speaker 1: who are in you know, Republican households or their husbands
Speaker 1: or Republicans who are secretly going to go and cast
Speaker 1: their ballot for Kamala Harris and may not be telling
Speaker 1: polsters the truth about the way that they're votings or
Speaker 1: the inverse of the quote unquote shy Trump voter theory
Speaker 1: back in twenty sixteen. Do you see any indications that
Speaker 1: that could be the case.
Speaker 8: I don't know. I've heard people say that actually for
Speaker 8: a while. I remember people saying it in like twenty
Speaker 8: sixteen about Hillary and they ended up being true. Like
Speaker 8: it makes sense in theory, but like, I mean.
Speaker 4: It's not really evidence.
Speaker 3: Farr.
Speaker 8: Yeah, it's kind of a bit of a fan fiction.
Speaker 8: I'd say.
Speaker 4: My last question for you, Josh, is.
Speaker 1: How, like, what's your confidence level that your analysis is
Speaker 1: correct and that Democrats are going to end up being
Speaker 1: underestimated or in a strong position to win this election.
Speaker 8: Yeah. Well, I feel like I think we have a
Speaker 8: lot of evidence right now from the modeling that my
Speaker 8: friend also Josh did to like what we know these
Speaker 8: polsters have done to I think maybe over correct or
Speaker 8: correct for their miss that there shouldn't be something significantly
Speaker 8: overestimating Trump. If that happens, it's for something we have
Speaker 8: no clue about right now, and we'll only be able
Speaker 8: to know after the election. There's nothing we know about
Speaker 8: politics or polling right now that indicates, like if that
Speaker 8: should be happening to a significant degree, unless like it's
Speaker 8: just a non response thing again, in which case polling
Speaker 8: really like is a little screwed. Yes, But what is
Speaker 8: kind of compelling to me is that we do have
Speaker 8: past precedent for this exact kind of thing happening where
Speaker 8: posters get like really insecure and overclock in favor of
Speaker 8: the right, not in the US, but actually in the
Speaker 8: United Kingdom in twenty seventeen, the election between Jeremy Corbett
Speaker 8: and Theresa May. There polsters two years prior had incorrectly
Speaker 8: called a labor winner a hung parliament. When the Conservatives
Speaker 8: ended up winning a majority two years later, they changed.
Speaker 8: They made a lot of changes to their polls, a
Speaker 8: lot of which were ad hoc changes, a lot like
Speaker 8: how posters are arguably making ad hoc changes now. Crystal.
Speaker 8: You mentioned that they were doing recall to vote, which
Speaker 8: is something that can really only generously be called quite suspect,
Speaker 8: like if applied like a cone showed that if applied
Speaker 8: to past elections over the past twenty years, it would
Speaker 8: have made all of the polling in all those years
Speaker 8: less accurate, because people will tell you that they voted
Speaker 8: for people like people like saying that they voted for
Speaker 8: the winner. So an accurate sample is going to usually
Speaker 8: get you people saying they voted more for the winner
Speaker 8: than for the loser, and by shifting that to the
Speaker 8: actual results, you're kind of just putting your thumb on
Speaker 8: the scale. British posters did a lot of that in
Speaker 8: twenty seventeen and what ended up happening was that they
Speaker 8: ended up underestimating Labor. Every single forecaster at the end
Speaker 8: of the election called a Labor a Conservative majority, in
Speaker 8: some cases a very large conservative majority, and it only
Speaker 8: resulted in a hung parliament. Yes, the exception was Yuk
Speaker 8: of funnily enough, but so that is like a degree
Speaker 8: of like having that actual example if this is something
Speaker 8: that has happened before, makes me feel like it's something
Speaker 8: that could happen. I won't make any guarantees. I don't
Speaker 8: think anybody can, especially in a race that's this close.
Speaker 8: But the ingredients deuce that we're there in Britten in
Speaker 8: twenty seventeen do seem to be here seven years later?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Very interesting.
Speaker 4: Well, it is very interesting.
Speaker 1: And certainly if she ends up winning and outperforming the polls,
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people are going to look
Speaker 1: back at your nelsons and say, you know this guy
Speaker 1: had it right on. So guys go subscribe to Edinger
Speaker 1: Mentum's substack, and thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 4: As Marie s great to thank you, Josh, It's our pleasure.
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris is now responding to Joe Biden's quote unquote
Speaker 2: garbage comment trying to clean up his mess. Never at
Speaker 2: underestimate his ability to f things up, in the words
Speaker 2: of Barack Obama, and he certainly has done that. He's
Speaker 2: created an entire news cycle around it. So here we
Speaker 2: have Kamala responding.
Speaker 3: Let's take a lesson. President Biden took this comment last
Speaker 3: night about garbage.
Speaker 9: Listen. I think that, first of all, he clarified his comments.
Speaker 9: But let me be clara. I strongly disagree with any
Speaker 9: criticism of people based on who they vote for.
Speaker 1: It's you hurt.
Speaker 9: In my speech last night and continuously throughout my career,
Speaker 9: I believe that the work that I do is about
Speaker 9: representing all the people, whether they support me or not.
Speaker 9: And as President of the United States, I will be
Speaker 9: a president for all Americans.
Speaker 3: Whether you vote for me or not.
Speaker 9: Satisfy responsibility, and that's the kind of work that I've
Speaker 9: done my entire career, and I take a very serious.
Speaker 2: He trying desperately to avoid any deplorables magic from twenty
Speaker 2: and sixteen, and she said Biden clarified his comments. If
Speaker 2: you want to know why you had to quote unquote
Speaker 2: clarify it, it's because he's so cooked that he can
Speaker 2: barely issue a single coherent sentence. So I know they
Speaker 2: played this yesterday, but you know we'll include it here.
Speaker 2: These are the full comments from Joe Biden.
Speaker 5: Or Puerto Rico, where I'm in my home stated, they're good, decent,
Speaker 5: honorable people. The only garbage I see floating down there
Speaker 5: is just supporters.
Speaker 10: His demonizational scene is unconsctable.
Speaker 2: Okay, So I thought it was pretty clear the only
Speaker 2: garbage I see out there is supporters.
Speaker 3: But he is also like slurring his words.
Speaker 2: If you want to listen to the case for why
Speaker 2: he wasn't saying his supporters he was it hinges on
Speaker 2: an apostrophe of whether he meant Tony Hinchcliffe there as
Speaker 2: the support ers for his rhetoric.
Speaker 3: Regardless, it's pretty clear it didn't work out so well.
Speaker 2: And that the Kamala campaign, I mean, I saw people
Speaker 2: defending it, and one of the ways that you know
Speaker 2: that you shouldn't defend it is that Kamala herself immediately
Speaker 2: was like, I have nothing to do with that, and
Speaker 2: Jos Shapiro also went on television immediately was like, no,
Speaker 2: we're not doing that today.
Speaker 1: Well, listen, Kama's been looking for a way to separate
Speaker 1: herself from Joe Biden. I guess she just handed her
Speaker 1: an opportunity to do exactly that. You know, Yeah, they're
Speaker 1: terrified of it being another deplorables moment. The Republicans are
Speaker 1: making as much of it as they possibly and you know.
Speaker 4: Trump, Bretroun in a garbage truck.
Speaker 1: The Vake Ramaswamy also like going out and picking up
Speaker 1: garbage and yeah whatever. So they're doing with it everything
Speaker 1: that they possibly can. But I mean, it strikes a
Speaker 1: few things like Number one, no surprise that Joe Biden
Speaker 1: has been asking to campaign with Kamala Harris apparently for
Speaker 1: weeks and weeks and they're like, we'll get.
Speaker 4: Back to you on that. Yeah, that's not going to
Speaker 4: happen because this is what you get.
Speaker 1: Number Two, how many times has she had to clean
Speaker 1: up for the men in particular who are campaigning for
Speaker 1: I mean, I think about Barack Obama going out and
Speaker 1: lecturing the brothers, you know, about how they need to vote,
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera, And when she's asked about it,
Speaker 1: she didn't directly, you know, like rebuke President Obama. But
Speaker 1: she also made it clear like I'm not taking anyone's
Speaker 1: vote for granted, and I have to earn the vote
Speaker 1: of course, like this is going to be difficult. I'm
Speaker 1: also reminded of when she was in that difficult interview
Speaker 1: with Brett Baer. He tried multiple times to try to
Speaker 1: get her to have a moment where she derived Trump supporters,
Speaker 1: and she adamantly refused to take the bait. We're also
Speaker 1: going to show you later in the show some comments
Speaker 1: from Bill Clinton out there in Michigan making somewhat less
Speaker 1: than compelling case, we'll say, to Arab American, Muslim American voters,
Speaker 1: you know, to not Lei Kamlo has been good on
Speaker 1: that topic either. She said that the main problem they
Speaker 1: have is obviously the reality of the policy that she supports,
Speaker 1: and her refusal to put on any distance from her
Speaker 1: between herself and Joe Biden on that. But again at
Speaker 1: a time when she's trying to say, listen, I'm concerned
Speaker 1: about Palestinian civilian death. Bill Clinton goes out there and
Speaker 1: steps all over that. So you know, with this Joe
Speaker 1: Biden thing like this is also not even the first
Speaker 1: time that he's stepped on her messaging. During this particular campaign,
Speaker 1: she had a big event that she wanted to get
Speaker 1: a lot of attention, and he at the same time
Speaker 1: came out and gave a press conference, which he almost
Speaker 1: never does. There was that issue she was in this
Speaker 1: sort of like battle with Ronda Santis over hurricane relief,
Speaker 1: and he wasn't responding to her calls, and they were
Speaker 1: into this whole thing, and then Joe Biden gets asked
Speaker 1: about He's like, Ron's been great.
Speaker 4: He's been very responsive to me.
Speaker 1: So, you know, coming at this moment when she just
Speaker 1: gave this big speech on the Ellipse where she made
Speaker 1: a point in that speech of trying to reach her
Speaker 1: hand out to Trump supporters, obviously the campaign is not
Speaker 1: very out about them.
Speaker 4: No, there's much of a differences. I mean, it's like the.
Speaker 2: Trump got a decent stunt off of it with the garbage. Sure,
Speaker 2: we have some of that video that we can go
Speaker 2: ahead and play for everybody.
Speaker 3: Let's take a lesson.
Speaker 11: Two hundred and fifty million people are not garbage.
Speaker 5: I could tell you.
Speaker 2: Who the real garbage is, but we won't say that.
Speaker 3: How do you like my garbage truck? This truck is
Speaker 3: an honor of Kamala and Joe.
Speaker 2: Biden is in the garbage truck to do a little
Speaker 2: press comp We'll get to the most consequential part of that.
Speaker 4: I mean, it's just hard for me to take.
Speaker 3: He's recreating the McDonald's magic.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's definitely And we have some polling later to
Speaker 1: show you that that McDonald's done got a lot of
Speaker 1: It was like the number one story that people are
Speaker 1: aware of its Yeah, because the images are so striking.
Speaker 2: It's one of the most indelible photos of American It's
Speaker 2: up there with the tank photo. Like that's it's it's
Speaker 2: going to be burned in to my like Dewey defeats Truman.
Speaker 3: The tank, the McDonald's thing, I'll never forget it.
Speaker 4: You talk about the Doucocot tank, Yeah, the Douacacus. That's
Speaker 4: not a favorable comparison.
Speaker 3: I didn't say it was good or bad. I just
Speaker 3: said it's burning burn into the mind.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean I think it's hard for obviously, it's hard
Speaker 1: for me to take seriously like all of their angst
Speaker 1: and upset over it because Trump goes out there all
Speaker 1: the time and trash's Democrats and Democratic supporters and the
Speaker 1: enemy within and whatever. So but you know, yeah, they're
Speaker 1: going to make of it what they can. I don't
Speaker 1: think it's number one. Back in twenty sixteen, when Hillary
Speaker 1: said that, first of all, she was the one who
Speaker 1: was running, and second of all, there were people who genuinely,
Speaker 1: you know, potentially could have been swayed between Trump and
Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton. That was still a theoretical possibility.
Speaker 4: Trump's face is so locked.
Speaker 1: In, Like what person who sees himself as a Trump
Speaker 1: supporter was really considering Kamala Harris at this point is
Speaker 1: going to be like, oh, Joe Biden said that we're garbage, Like,
Speaker 1: forget about it. I guess the best you can hope
Speaker 1: is that it helps the juice turnout on that side.
Speaker 1: And maybe that's a maybe that's a possibility. I don't
Speaker 1: want to discount it, but like you know, I just
Speaker 1: it doesn't have quite the magic that the Deplorables moment
Speaker 1: did back in twenty sixty.
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I mean deplorables was everything.
Speaker 2: And first of all, I mean, the main reason why
Speaker 2: Trump gets away with it and they don't is that
Speaker 2: because a huge part of the Trump base is literally
Speaker 2: animated by being pissed and shit on by elites and
Speaker 2: feeling that way.
Speaker 3: They that's an entire part of it.
Speaker 2: So in a sense, that is why it is so
Speaker 2: animating to the Trump voter and not maybe not necessarily
Speaker 2: to the Democratic voter, just because there's like a there's
Speaker 2: a much bigger Zeitgeist thing happening. Regardless, this tells us
Speaker 2: a couple of things. Why Biden is it that terrible candidate?
Speaker 2: Why Biden is cooked old and shouldn't even be in office?
Speaker 2: And the key was a i'm all immediately distanced herself
Speaker 2: from it. But also Josh Shapiro immediately on television that night,
Speaker 2: I think maybe an hour or so after the comment
Speaker 2: was made, I mean as forcefully distanced himself as he
Speaker 2: could from it.
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen to that.
Speaker 12: Governor Vershoff, just what's your response to that comment from
Speaker 12: President Biden where it sounds like he's calling Trump supporters
Speaker 12: their garbage.
Speaker 13: Yeah, Look, I had not heard that until now, Caitlin,
Speaker 13: so I'm kind of giving you my fresh reaction to it.
Speaker 13: I would never insult the good people of Pennsylvania or
Speaker 13: any Americans, even if they chose to support a candidate
Speaker 13: that I didn't support. I think the real issue here
Speaker 13: is Donald Trump and his inability to simply say comments
Speaker 13: like that are wrong, to simply stand up for his
Speaker 13: fellow Americans. He is incapable of doing that. When he
Speaker 13: had the keys to the White House before, he didn't
Speaker 13: do it. He separated people out, he divided people. He's
Speaker 13: promised more of the same, and that's why I think
Speaker 13: he's dangerous, and that's why I'm working as hard as
Speaker 13: I can to support Kamala Harris and do everything we
Speaker 13: can to defeat Donald Trump again in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 2: That is what a competent politician looks like. And that's
Speaker 2: that's really what it comes down to me. You know,
Speaker 2: I got no love for Joshapiro, and he won a
Speaker 2: lot Kamala Harris Trump supporters pennsylvani The thing is, remember
Speaker 2: how he responded to the assassination attempt, and he went
Speaker 2: and did a conference where he read from the from
Speaker 2: the widow the newly like I forget them. I think
Speaker 2: it's Corey competore and he gave him a great eulogy,
Speaker 2: and he was a girl dad and all that spoke
Speaker 2: to the his what the widow read a statement from
Speaker 2: her even though literally they were killed at a Trump brother.
Speaker 2: That's what actual competent, you know, politicians look like. And
Speaker 2: then you compare that to buy it in it's just
Speaker 2: like ridiculous.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I genuinely, like, I genuinely if you
Speaker 1: look at his whole quote, like if you read the
Speaker 1: transcript in come, it's incomprehensible. Yeah, And so, like, I
Speaker 1: don't know what he was trying to say. I find
Speaker 1: it believable that because it is kind of on a
Speaker 1: character for him, he's wanted to be more like, oh,
Speaker 1: I worked with strom Thurmon, like.
Speaker 4: I love Republicans. That's more of his mo o.
Speaker 1: Right, So I find it believable that he didn't really
Speaker 1: mean to say that all Trump supporters are quote unquote garbage.
Speaker 1: But like, that's the thing is if you are so
Speaker 1: adult and incoherent and still occupying the office of the
Speaker 1: White House, like what are we doing here? And Alex
Speaker 1: Thompson made that made that point effectively Axios reporters. CNN
Speaker 1: contributor Alex Thompson made that point of like, that's the
Speaker 1: really sad reality is that you can parse these words
Speaker 1: and it's like trying you need a decoder ring to
Speaker 1: try to figure out what the hell he's even talking about.
Speaker 1: Some of his supporters have also brought back up like, oh,
Speaker 1: he has a stutter. Oh my god, Like, please, come on,
Speaker 1: what are we doing here at this point? Let's listen
Speaker 1: to the point that Alex Thompson made.
Speaker 7: Though no one here at this table knows what Joe
Speaker 7: Biden meant unless someone here has talked to Joe Biden
Speaker 7: when he made those when he made those comments, and
Speaker 7: the sad reality is that they were indecipherable because this
Speaker 7: president is no longer able to coherently and consistently articulate
Speaker 7: a message. And that's just the sad reality. That is
Speaker 7: why he's no longer the nominee because of the debate.
Speaker 7: We all saw that very clearly, and it's also why
Speaker 7: Kamala Harris does not want him on the trail. This
Speaker 7: is a guy that just last week referred to former
Speaker 7: Representative Gabby Giffords in the past tense. She's very much
Speaker 7: alive as a person that last week said that he wanted.
Speaker 3: To throw Donald Trump in jail and then.
Speaker 7: Very quickly tried to backtrack and said he just politically
Speaker 7: meant to lock him up. And we are in this
Speaker 7: sad scenario where clearly Joe Biden and the aids around
Speaker 7: him that want to make him feel better, want him
Speaker 7: to be able to sort of be inserted into this
Speaker 7: race that see Kamala Harris's potential election as an affirmation
Speaker 7: of his record, but that Kamala Harris does not want
Speaker 7: him to be inserted, and it would prefer that he
Speaker 7: basically be absent. This last week.
Speaker 3: I love how he had you could hear a pin
Speaker 3: drop on.
Speaker 1: That in that yea, because how can you how can
Speaker 1: you disagree with any of that? And I agree with
Speaker 1: Nate Silver who says there should be a lot more
Speaker 1: journalistic scrutiny of his capability to function in this job,
Speaker 1: because yeah, I mean, he's almost not out of there,
Speaker 1: but we still got months to go. Well, he is
Speaker 1: still president of the United States, and he is so
Speaker 1: addled that he can't even in the one CNN appearance
Speaker 1: that he did competently deliver a basic point and a
Speaker 1: basic message. Like, the other thing that's insane to me
Speaker 1: is that you still have people out there running around
Speaker 1: like maybe he would have been a better candidate and
Speaker 1: I don't know why we switch. And if you go back,
Speaker 1: especially at the time, the number of Democratic partisans who
Speaker 1: were like, no, we got to stick with Joe, and
Speaker 1: Joe's great and he's going to be way more electable.
Speaker 1: Like these people should never be taken seriously again, because
Speaker 1: this this is not new, right. I mean, we all
Speaker 1: saw the debate, which was shocking, But even before the debate,
Speaker 1: how long have we been.
Speaker 3: Covering years, literally years.
Speaker 1: His rapid decline. So I think it is a tremendous
Speaker 1: journalistic fit. Look, I get it, it's the election, and
Speaker 1: so you know, there's a lot of coverage of Kamlin
Speaker 1: Trump and what they're doing, and that's all justified. But
Speaker 1: the fact that when Biden decided to step out of
Speaker 1: the race, that almost all the scrutiny about his age
Speaker 1: and capability went away, even though he's still the guy
Speaker 1: with the nuclear codes, you know, I do think that
Speaker 1: that is a tremendous a tremendous failure and dramatic inadequacy
Speaker 1: of the process.
Speaker 2: He is the most incapacitated president in office. Sin's like
Speaker 2: Woodrow Wilson, and you know it maybe just like at
Speaker 2: that time, they didn't want to cover it and his
Speaker 2: wife was running the White House and all of that.
Speaker 2: I think we're seen very similar dynamics to this. Five
Speaker 2: years from now, we'll get the whole inside story from
Speaker 2: Jake Sullivan and Anthony Blincoln about what it was really like.
Speaker 2: You know, he'll probably have to like die, you know
Speaker 2: eventually before you can tell the real truth about what happened.
Speaker 2: And then it's it's going to be insane, Like whenever
Speaker 2: that book comes out, it's, oh my god. And the
Speaker 2: worst part is is that we won't even be surprised
Speaker 2: by any of it. All right, let's move on to
Speaker 2: Madison Square Garden, and there's been quite a lot of
Speaker 2: discussion there about the or men of grbage Gate. Garbage Gate,
Speaker 2: that's right, I like that Puerto Rico Gate. You could
Speaker 2: also call hingecliff Gate. You could take it back as
Speaker 2: far as he wants. So we've got a couple of
Speaker 2: Republicans actually who came out to criticize first was Nikki Haley,
Speaker 2: who took to Fox News to critique the Trump campaign.
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 14: They were right to denounce the comedian. They need to
Speaker 14: go and tell Puerto Ricans how much you know they
Speaker 14: do value them. They need to tell Latino's that. But
Speaker 14: they also need to look at how they're talking about women.
Speaker 14: I mean that this romance and this masculinity stuff, I
Speaker 14: mean it borders on edgy to the point that it's
Speaker 14: going to make women uncomfortable. You know, you've got affiliated
Speaker 14: packs that are doing commercials about calling Kamala the sea word,
Speaker 14: or you had speakers at Madison Square Gardens, you know,
Speaker 14: referring to her and her pimps. That is not the
Speaker 14: way to win women. That is not the way to
Speaker 14: win people who are concerned about Trump style. This is
Speaker 14: a time to talk about the economy, This is the
Speaker 14: time to talk about immigration, this is the time to
Speaker 14: talk about national security, and this is the time to
Speaker 14: talk about Kamwa Harris.
Speaker 3: So you could see there.
Speaker 2: I mean my take actionally Crystal was I think she's
Speaker 2: betting on a Trump loss. That's my guess from this clip,
Speaker 2: because I actually spoke to some others, people who are
Speaker 2: concerned but who are your friend and they want to
Speaker 2: help you win. They call you behind the scenes, right,
Speaker 2: they don't want to give the other side ammunition. But
Speaker 2: when you're betting on a loss, you take to the
Speaker 2: TV and you're like, well, they need to do a
Speaker 2: better job reaching out to women, and this isn't this.
Speaker 2: But of course I still want him to win because
Speaker 2: I'm working on policy, trying to cover her bases. This
Speaker 2: seemed like a soft twenty twenty eight launch just from
Speaker 2: what I could tell. She's not a commentator, she's a politician, right.
Speaker 2: She also has not she's been rejected by the Trump
Speaker 2: campaign effectively, will not campaign with him. It looks like
Speaker 2: up until election day they previously had thought that they might.
Speaker 2: But there's still quite a bit of bad blood between
Speaker 2: the two camps. So there's quite a bit of jocking
Speaker 2: that's also happening.
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, I think the comments are accurate, but they're
Speaker 1: also motivated because it's not just her positioning herself for
Speaker 1: what comes next, and she fancies herself potentially the next
Speaker 1: Republican contenderlution, but whatever, that's how she's thinking. And she
Speaker 1: also is bitter because to your point about you know,
Speaker 1: you call him behind the scenes, him.
Speaker 4: Not picking up those calls.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that has made herself available to go a campaign
Speaker 1: for him, and he's like no. And in fact, when
Speaker 1: he and I think this is foolish by the way
Speaker 1: on his part, because clearly the Kamala campaign thinks whether
Speaker 1: they're right about this or not, there's a possibility that
Speaker 1: they're right about it, that there are some of those
Speaker 1: Nikki Haley primary voters who are potential persuadable targets for them.
Speaker 1: They have made a very concerted effort. That's like the
Speaker 1: bulk of their campaign is a concerted effort to reach
Speaker 1: out to those voters. And recently, when Trump was asked
Speaker 1: about Nicki Haley on a Fox and Friends or some thing,
Speaker 1: rather than trying to appeal to them, he trashes Nicky
Speaker 1: Haley and rags about how much he beat her by
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. So you know, I mean, this
Speaker 1: is just Trump and the way he operates, and his
Speaker 1: ego always comes first, even when it's totally inadvisable from
Speaker 1: any sort of a rational campaign perspective, like what would
Speaker 1: it hurt you to have her come and be on
Speaker 1: the stage with you. She's willing to do it, etc.
Speaker 1: It's certainly not going to be a loss, and potentially
Speaker 1: it's a gain for you, but that's that's just not
Speaker 1: in him to do so. I think the Yale is
Speaker 1: right fundamentally in her comments. We've played that the Megan
Speaker 1: Kelly comments in a moment, which are are very similar.
Speaker 4: She had a very similar take.
Speaker 1: You had Tommy Laren earlier on critical of some of
Speaker 1: the lack of outreach to women, and you know, it
Speaker 1: really has. They have actually primarily turned it into a
Speaker 1: real battle of the sexes kind of a vibe. And
Speaker 1: we've done a lot of scrutiny. There's been a lot
Speaker 1: of conversation about Kamala Harris knowing to do better with men.
Speaker 1: She had that like hop like moment with Russian Whitmer,
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. And you see them trying to
Speaker 1: make some efforts. You see her going on with you know,
Speaker 1: Shannon Sharp on Club Shasha, you see her going on
Speaker 1: The Shade Room and some of these like more male
Speaker 1: dominated podcasts. You don't really see equivalent outreach from the
Speaker 1: Trump side, like he didn't go on with Brene Brown
Speaker 1: or whoever the you know, and Kamala did, by the way,
Speaker 1: some feat more female dominated spaces. Instead, they've just consistently
Speaker 1: leaned into the like camp masculinity theme that you saw
Speaker 1: at the R and C and that you certainly saw
Speaker 1: in Madison Square, Garden, Hule Cogan, Dana White, you know
Speaker 1: that whole sense. And so you have a few women
Speaker 1: in the party at least saying and now actually Cernovich
Speaker 1: and Charlie Kirk as well saying like, eh, this might
Speaker 1: be a little bit of an issue.
Speaker 3: They're talking about the vote, right.
Speaker 4: Yeah, but the downstream of the bro this.
Speaker 2: Is where I'm like, I don't think that she's necessarily right,
Speaker 2: like in terms of what does she say in terms
Speaker 2: of like, this is not the way to win women.
Speaker 2: I mean that also presumes like what is the correct
Speaker 2: way to quote unquote win women? Like that just seems
Speaker 2: like a very I don't know, it doesn't seem like
Speaker 2: it's a comment that is directed in any reality. If
Speaker 2: we look at quote unquote women voters, they're voting on
Speaker 2: the issue of abortion.
Speaker 3: You can't win on the issue of abortion.
Speaker 2: Your best case scenario is to win men, drive up
Speaker 2: the margin, and then just hope that married women come
Speaker 2: along as they have in the past. I think in
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen and in twenty twenty to make sure that
Speaker 2: you don't get drowned out. That's part of the reason
Speaker 2: that I think. Didn't you reference those ads where it's like, women,
Speaker 2: it's okay to lie to your husband or what, which is,
Speaker 2: by the way, psychotic and weird, and if you're in
Speaker 2: a marriage, we had to lie to your husband or
Speaker 2: your wife your body for marriage.
Speaker 3: You got to get out, all right, let me just
Speaker 3: tell you that right now.
Speaker 1: I saw I tweet about this too, where a woman
Speaker 1: was saying like, she who knows if this is even accurate,
Speaker 1: but that like every four years as hell because her
Speaker 1: husband's a big Trump supporter and she's not. And he
Speaker 1: was like, so where are you gonna move if Trump
Speaker 1: wins again? I'm like, what kind of a marriage is this?
Speaker 4: Jesus Christ to.
Speaker 2: Her, get out to him, you're a loser. You're like sir,
Speaker 2: and vice versa. If you're aiding your husband or whatever,
Speaker 2: you're also a loser.
Speaker 1: I just would say, and uh, and then we'll play
Speaker 1: the Megan Kelly comments and get her take on this
Speaker 1: as well. Nikki Haley reference to the fact that you
Speaker 1: know you had multiple sort of like sexually lude jokes
Speaker 1: made at Kamala Harris's expense, You had the other Joe
Speaker 1: from Tony Hinchcliff that we haven't even played as about,
Speaker 1: like you know, Latino's coming inside, and you have Elon
Speaker 1: Musk's super pack literally running an ad insinuating Kamala Harris
Speaker 1: is the C word. So you know, I certainly there
Speaker 1: are some women that are just voting on abortion.
Speaker 3: That's it.
Speaker 1: They're not going to change their mind. It's done, it's over,
Speaker 1: there's nothing they can say about it. But there are
Speaker 1: also are some norm and I know some of these
Speaker 1: women normy like previously voter Republican women who the tone
Speaker 1: is in the crassness is a problem where they're not
Speaker 1: particularly like ideologically or issue focused. And so when that's
Speaker 1: the entire vibe of the campaign. In the same way,
Speaker 1: I think the Democrat at times, with like all the
Speaker 1: talk about toxic masculinity, et cetera, have put out the
Speaker 1: vibe of like this is just not really a place
Speaker 1: for you if you're you know.
Speaker 4: A white dude bro.
Speaker 1: That's the vibe that women are getting from these events
Speaker 1: of like this is just not really like this is
Speaker 1: just not really a place for me, Like this is
Speaker 1: not you're not putting out welcoming vibes, and I'm put
Speaker 1: off by you know, the quote unquote locker room talk
Speaker 1: is really not for me. It's in a locker room
Speaker 1: with other men. That's the reason why it's quote unquote
Speaker 1: locker room talk.
Speaker 2: But he did bring white women in twenty sixteen, you know,
Speaker 2: that's why, and that's fact.
Speaker 1: But that's one But that's one of the groups that's
Speaker 1: been edging away from him. Sure, and there's very real
Speaker 1: Posmost of the polling suggests that Kamala Harrison Will is
Speaker 1: in position to potentially win white women this time around,
Speaker 1: and certainly she's banking on she's betting on suburban women,
Speaker 1: which would be, you know, the type of people that
Speaker 1: Nikki Haley is most in touch with and is thinking
Speaker 1: about with these comments just to show you, like, you know,
Speaker 1: also Megan Kelly, who's also very you know, very strong
Speaker 1: Trump supporter, certainly this time around, she also had some
Speaker 1: similar concerns about the tone of the MSG rally.
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to what she had to say.
Speaker 10: Trump was not well served by those around him last night.
Speaker 4: It wasn't a Nazi rally. All that's nonsense.
Speaker 10: But I'm telling you, even for me and I voted
Speaker 10: for Donald Trump last week. It was too grotastic, Okay,
Speaker 10: it was you're trying to win an election in which
Speaker 10: you're hemorrhaging female voters. Maybe when you present in front
Speaker 10: of hundreds of thousands, at least at Madison Square Garden,
Speaker 10: you clean up the bro talk just a little so
Speaker 10: you don't alienate women in the middle of America who
Speaker 10: are already on the fence about Republicans. Do they have
Speaker 10: no women advising their campaign? Is there no actual woman
Speaker 10: sitting behind the scenes coming up with the guest lineup
Speaker 10: and saying, let's just have a word with the guy
Speaker 10: who are going to be speaking about. This isn't the bar,
Speaker 10: this isn't their living room. This is a campaign. This
Speaker 10: is politics. We're trying to get him elected. We don't
Speaker 10: need to rally the base or guys anymore. And it's
Speaker 10: not helpful even if we do want to rally the
Speaker 10: base or guys, to go full off color insults to
Speaker 10: different racial groups and so on. I get it, Trust me,
Speaker 10: nothing that was said offended me. I'm almost unoffendable. But
Speaker 10: I understand how this plays, especially with women, and it
Speaker 10: was an e ft up choice.
Speaker 4: I do love how it's never terms fault. It's always he's.
Speaker 3: Failed by that.
Speaker 4: He can never fail. He's failed by the people around now.
Speaker 3: But sure I agree with her.
Speaker 2: Honestly, I think the base strategy is the one that works.
Speaker 2: I mean, women are predomint college educated women or the
Speaker 2: Kamala base. That's where they're going after Liz Change and
Speaker 2: all that. Bros Are the basically the Republican base, gen
Speaker 2: z split amongst men.
Speaker 3: That's what you need now, look right.
Speaker 4: Smart, But Ryan's sweet thing on the margins.
Speaker 2: Ryan Sweet, that you read is accurate and it is
Speaker 2: one where it could be scary.
Speaker 4: Right, So I write it again since there was a
Speaker 4: more segment. Go ahead, keep talking, I'll pull it up.
Speaker 3: Fine.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's something about like dudes don't have the capacity.
Speaker 1: The organizational capacity, he says. I love my dudes. But
Speaker 1: if there is a nationwide contest between men and women,
Speaker 1: that goes to the group that managed to show up
Speaker 1: at the right place, fill out their forms on time,
Speaker 1: and do all those things, the men would need to
Speaker 1: start with an advantage of several millions to be competitive.
Speaker 1: Don't come at me. Those are Ryan Grimm's words. You
Speaker 1: can take it up with him. I'm not being sexist
Speaker 1: against men.
Speaker 3: That's fair.
Speaker 2: It's just one of those where I think that this
Speaker 2: is a base turnout election. I don't think that this
Speaker 2: is necessarily like, look, you're right, you know everything with margins,
Speaker 2: et cetera. But if you won't up your margin with
Speaker 2: men enough, then that actually is one that goes to
Speaker 2: the Trump campaign strategy. They just think that they're literally
Speaker 2: not winnable, and I honestly think they're probably correct at
Speaker 2: this point, Like we're so bifurcated in terms of also
Speaker 2: the issue set that we look at for men and
Speaker 2: women are completely at odds. Immigration and the economy way
Speaker 2: higher for men and for women.
Speaker 3: Abortion is just so sky high.
Speaker 2: Like what can you possibly say as a Republican to
Speaker 2: win that type of voter over I mean, tone is
Speaker 2: really not going to come.
Speaker 3: Maybe I am.
Speaker 2: Totally wrong, Okay, I really I might be. That said,
Speaker 2: the data tells us that if you drive up the
Speaker 2: margin with men, you will still get a substantial portion
Speaker 2: of married conservative women to come with you.
Speaker 3: That's enough to win the election. You don't necessarily have
Speaker 3: to win, you know, like.
Speaker 2: Single ladies are voting for trumpet like or sorry for Kamma,
Speaker 2: like a forty percent margin.
Speaker 3: It's crazy if you look at it.
Speaker 2: I mean, by the way, anthropologically, none of this is good,
Speaker 2: but that's a separate story. Like, if you're purely trying
Speaker 2: to win, that's what I would do.
Speaker 1: Massive divide between college educated women and non college educated men.
Speaker 4: Yes, but you know, I.
Speaker 1: Mean the numbers are what they are. In terms of
Speaker 1: every election, women vote more than men. You're going to
Speaker 1: pick one side, you know, but Ryan's comments, putting Ryan's
Speaker 1: comments aside. If you're going to pick one side of
Speaker 1: the Battle of the sexes to be on, just based
Speaker 1: on the fact that women always vote high rates the men,
Speaker 1: you would want to be on the side women.
Speaker 4: So listen, how much is I don't know.
Speaker 1: I mean, you're right, like the Trump's space is so
Speaker 1: locked in people, but we're talking about.
Speaker 4: A game of inches.
Speaker 1: So if you have some people who are on the fence,
Speaker 1: reminding them of everything that comes with Trump, and you know,
Speaker 1: there are a lot of like normy women out there,
Speaker 1: normally people in general who are just like, oh, you know,
Speaker 1: this is just gross.
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I do think her point too about he doesn't have
Speaker 1: any well he does this Susie Wilds on the campaign.
Speaker 3: She's literally the number two on the camp.
Speaker 1: I mean, there are women's voices that are in there,
Speaker 1: but clearly, whereas the comment team has really tried to
Speaker 1: minimize their losses with men and try to keep as many,
Speaker 1: especially black and brown men in the tent as they
Speaker 1: possibly can, there has not been similar outreach from the
Speaker 1: Trump campaign. And you're right that it is consistent with
Speaker 1: two different strategies. The common strategy if you look at
Speaker 1: the ad campaign that's been run, if you look at
Speaker 1: the like the Liz training out region, all those stuff,
Speaker 1: it has really been an attempt at persuasion, and the
Speaker 1: Trump campaign has been very much an attempt at like,
Speaker 1: let's get some of these infrequent voters out, let's drive
Speaker 1: up turn out in the base. And like I said,
Speaker 1: you see that in closing ads where the Trump campaign's
Speaker 1: going all in on these like culture war issues. The
Speaker 1: Kamala campaign is featuring a lot of former Republicans who
Speaker 1: are voting for her, and they're doing like more of
Speaker 1: a class war. He's a billionaire, he's not for you,
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. So you know, I guess that's
Speaker 1: that's the bet that both campaigns are placing.
Speaker 4: We'll see, We're going.
Speaker 2: To see, let's stick with the MSG theme. There was
Speaker 2: some more quote unquote fallout here. We have a Nikki Jam.
Speaker 2: He's a reggae tone star, he's half Puerto Rican. He
Speaker 2: has now withdrawn his endorsement of Donald Trump. He said
Speaker 2: he thought Trump would be good for the economy, but
Speaker 2: he cannot look past the disrespect that has now been
Speaker 2: shown to Puerto Rico.
Speaker 3: So I don't know.
Speaker 2: I mean, everyone thinks that this stuff will be consequential.
Speaker 2: They're like, oh, bet Bunny is endorsed Kamla again. I
Speaker 2: have no idea. I find it very difficult to believe
Speaker 2: that if you're Puerto Rican, who is going to vote
Speaker 2: for Trump? Tony hinchclub at a Trump rally, made a
Speaker 2: joke about Puerto Rico that isn't enough for you to
Speaker 2: switch your boat.
Speaker 3: Maybe it's enough for Nikki Jam.
Speaker 2: It just seems a little weird to me, especially if
Speaker 2: you live in the Continental US. You don't even live
Speaker 2: in Puerto Rico. What are you so upset about? So anyway,
Speaker 2: that's me.
Speaker 1: I think the case for which I don't know, but
Speaker 1: the case for it mattering is number one in Philly.
Speaker 1: The places in the actual city of Philadelphia that had
Speaker 1: moved the most to the right were also the most
Speaker 1: heavily Puerto Rican parts of the city. And there's something
Speaker 1: like half a million Puerto Ricans in the in the
Speaker 1: state of Pennsylvania. So obviously you know that's an important constituency.
Speaker 1: And then it's the issue, isn't just this common? It
Speaker 1: reminds of the like Trump Hurricane Maria response and sort
Speaker 1: of brings up those memories, et cetera. Because I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't know, I like you. When I'm looking at
Speaker 1: this nicky jam thing, I'm like, really, it didn't already
Speaker 1: like this guy was.
Speaker 2: Okay, the joke's on you, bro. You like an idiot,
Speaker 2: And I'll say it like it's like, oh, I thought
Speaker 2: I never thought this could ever happen.
Speaker 3: Who did you think this was what's happening here? But
Speaker 3: it's better for the economy. Why does it matter?
Speaker 2: Huh So your feelings about Puerto Rico are more important
Speaker 2: than the economy, then you're an idiot. Okay, it must
Speaker 2: be nice to be a rich reggaetne star.
Speaker 1: I mean, I feel like it's reasonable for people to
Speaker 1: feel like, oh, you just like hate me and the
Speaker 1: you know place him from and whatever, like disrespect.
Speaker 3: You know Hinchcliffe thing.
Speaker 2: It's not even like Trump said, Hurricane Rie is a
Speaker 2: way more legit reason by the way to be upset
Speaker 2: about it. But clearly Nicky didn't think about that whenever
Speaker 2: he was up on the stage. So okay, I'll just
Speaker 2: leave it at that.
Speaker 1: So anyway, again, it's one of these micro stories that
Speaker 1: after election day we may look back and be like, oh, well,
Speaker 1: this doesn't matter at all, or we may look back
Speaker 1: and be like, damn, Trump lost Pennsylvania about like five
Speaker 1: thousand votes, and maybe this was the difference maker right there.
Speaker 4: Which would be really crazy. But you just never know.
Speaker 2: How pray that that doesn't happen, just so I don't
Speaker 2: have to be subjected to this discourse for another three years.
Speaker 2: Let's continue with Trump. He was asked about Tony Hinchcliff
Speaker 2: in the garbage truck. Take a listen.
Speaker 9: I don't know anything about the comedian. I don't know
Speaker 9: who he is.
Speaker 11: I've never seen him.
Speaker 5: I heard he made a statement, but it was just
Speaker 5: a statement that he made.
Speaker 6: He's a comedian.
Speaker 5: What can I tell you. I know nothing about him.
Speaker 11: I don't know why he's there.
Speaker 1: You put comedians up and I guess you went on
Speaker 1: the show.
Speaker 2: I don't know who he is one of the most
Speaker 2: classic Trumps of all time.
Speaker 4: I don't even know who.
Speaker 3: I don't even know who the guy is.
Speaker 4: Well, really never heard. It was at your rally and
Speaker 4: the team vetted his comments.
Speaker 2: He also said that about he continues to say about
Speaker 2: Mark Robinson.
Speaker 3: He goes, I don't know what you're talking about.
Speaker 1: He did, didn't he call him like a modern day
Speaker 1: MLK junior or something like that.
Speaker 3: You're telling me for the first time.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just it's not really It's obviously not particularly credible,
Speaker 1: but it shows you that many people have also pointed
Speaker 1: out that like, if Trump's had said the same thing,
Speaker 1: he would get away with it and everyone would double
Speaker 1: down on it and no one would criticize it. But
Speaker 1: only Trump can get away with those things. And so
Speaker 1: even the campaign obviously, you know, in similar way that
Speaker 1: Kama was distancing herself from the Biden comments, like they
Speaker 1: realize it's a problem. Republicans in Florida ran away from
Speaker 1: it immediately, and other Republicans across the country, and Trump
Speaker 1: himself is like, wow, I don't even know who this
Speaker 1: guy is, Like, you know this. They clearly recognize this
Speaker 1: is a bit of a.
Speaker 4: Problem for them.
Speaker 1: They did the Allentown rally, made sure to have lots
Speaker 1: of Puerto Ricans there to validate on stage whatever, so
Speaker 1: they know it is a potential issue. Is it a
Speaker 1: reality electoral issue?
Speaker 2: We'll find out him bingo, all right, let's continue. Let's
Speaker 2: put this up on the screen. Just the last thing
Speaker 2: on this. So in terms of these stunts, one of
Speaker 2: the reasons kind of interesting is Data for Progress asked
Speaker 2: about people who had seen the recent news about certain
Speaker 2: events in the campaign. Number one was actually Trump serving
Speaker 2: fries at McDonald's. In terms of the meme mobility of that,
Speaker 2: you only had seventeen percent of voters who said they
Speaker 2: had heard nothing at all about it. Carris calling Trump
Speaker 2: a fascist, you only had twenty one percent who had
Speaker 2: heard nothing about it. But actually Madison Square Garden was
Speaker 2: number three. So I have you know again, Americans, you guys,
Speaker 2: you fascinate me every day. What breaks through and what doesn't?
Speaker 2: Why that one that one really crystal. It broke through
Speaker 2: more than enemy from within, what it broke through more
Speaker 2: than Trump doing on Joe Rogan, which you heard some
Speaker 2: thirty two percent of people saying never heard about it,
Speaker 2: Harri's campaigning with Liz Cheney.
Speaker 3: I mean, what like how people.
Speaker 2: Consume the news, what they choose to like click on
Speaker 2: and send to their friends. I again will never understand,
Speaker 2: but that does show you that sometimes things just break
Speaker 2: through for reasons that are far beyond our.
Speaker 4: Just some things just take off.
Speaker 3: See McDonald's.
Speaker 2: I guess that's just an MSG, like what you know,
Speaker 2: that's the one where I don't understand it anyway, all right,
Speaker 2: let's continue. Joe Rogan actually Rogan recently, he was talking
Speaker 2: on his own podcast about the Tony Hinchcliff comments, and
Speaker 2: he actually made some interesting comments, specifically about how he
Speaker 2: had warned Tony in the past that that joke was
Speaker 2: gonna get him stabbed.
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 6: I don't really blame Tony though, because Tony is what
Speaker 6: Tony is, right, Like, if you want an insult, call
Speaker 6: make Tony is the best in the world.
Speaker 11: That's literally his His his great specialty is roasting.
Speaker 6: Right, So if you booked Tony Hinchcliffe, Tony Hinchcliff is
Speaker 6: going to be Tony Hinchcliff exactly. So whoever fucking booked him,
Speaker 6: that's the person that's that's made the mistakes.
Speaker 11: Booked him but apparently went over his material.
Speaker 3: Did they go over his materials?
Speaker 11: Oh my, this is what I've read on the internet,
Speaker 11: so it must be true.
Speaker 3: In the words of Donald Trump, someone's getting fired.
Speaker 9: Man.
Speaker 11: I'm gonna tell you that joke kills at comedy clubs.
Speaker 3: I don't like the joke.
Speaker 11: It kills. And I said to him, I don't. It's
Speaker 11: just like if you're Puerto Rican and you hear that
Speaker 11: in the eudis like, oh, it's a funny joke. The
Speaker 11: joke does well. But I said to him, I go, dude,
Speaker 11: that's the one's gonna get you stabbed. Really yes, And
Speaker 11: he used to talk about it on stage, saying, Joe
Speaker 11: Rogan always says, that's the one's gonna get me stabbed,
Speaker 11: Like wow, which is so great. Here's what's where that
Speaker 11: joke comes from. Tony is actually obsessed with the Pacific
Speaker 11: garbage patch. And unlike the fact that we just throw
Speaker 11: it like we were talking about like recycling, Like the
Speaker 11: recycling doesn't work. They don't do it. Most of your
Speaker 11: bottles and you're thrown in recycling, they get put in landfills.
Speaker 11: So there's a landfill in Puerto Rico that's way overflowed.
Speaker 11: Puerto Rico has a legitimate trash problem because they're on
Speaker 11: an island like where you're gonna put it, right, there's
Speaker 11: all these people living on that island where you're gonna
Speaker 11: put it, and so they have landfills. Their landfills are
Speaker 11: way over capacity. So that's where the joke came from, right,
Speaker 11: Like the joke came from, like Tony being environmentally conscious, well.
Speaker 1: Laid down a little bit of that battle.
Speaker 4: Could make a little more since I thought i'd just
Speaker 4: be I.
Speaker 2: Will say, I've seen Tony a couple of times. I've
Speaker 2: never heard the Puerto Rico joke. I've seen him do.
Speaker 2: I've seen his act quite a few times. I have
Speaker 2: not heard that one, although I guess I haven't been
Speaker 2: lostin in quite a while. But it is funny that
Speaker 2: were Even Rogan himself was like, that's a joke that's
Speaker 2: going to get you stabbed.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and he said I don't like the joke, but
Speaker 1: you know, I was environmentally conscious that.
Speaker 4: He does it. Okay, this was funny.
Speaker 1: I put this up on the screen Apparently this was
Speaker 1: some of the backs, which also indicated that he had
Speaker 1: delivered it, you know, in clubs before. He says it
Speaker 1: was not the first time Hinchcliff had used the Porto
Speaker 1: Rico line. He practiced at the Stan Comedy Club in
Speaker 1: New York City, where he made a surprise appearance Saturday night.
Speaker 1: According to an NBC News producer who happened to be there,
Speaker 1: the joke did not draw laughs, just a handful of
Speaker 1: awkward chuckles. And you guys will recall at the rally too,
Speaker 1: it bombed. No one was like just a little bit
Speaker 1: of nervous laughter.
Speaker 4: Maybe.
Speaker 1: Hinchcliffe told the audience he would be performing at the
Speaker 1: Madison Square Garden rally the next day, and said multiple
Speaker 1: times during his routine that he would get a better
Speaker 1: reaction tomorrow at the rally. Famous last words, this person opines,
Speaker 1: I like that Tony bombed at the rally, being like
Speaker 1: this usually does better at clubs, after he bombed at
Speaker 1: the club, saying this is going to kill at the rally.
Speaker 1: So listen, you know, there's a lot of Puerto Ricans
Speaker 1: in New York City, and maybe it's just not really
Speaker 1: the location for this line to that's a work out
Speaker 1: for he guys.
Speaker 2: He got to keep saying it in Austin, Texas, where
Speaker 2: Mexicans are allowed to laugh at Puerto Ricans.
Speaker 3: That's that's what you got to keep doing. You got
Speaker 3: to know your demographics, Tony.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do have to say, like I do kind
Speaker 1: of agree with a if it's it really is the
Speaker 1: fault of the Trump campaign, Like it really is there
Speaker 1: because look at Tony Hinchcliffe's.
Speaker 3: Body of work. That's correct, like if.
Speaker 4: You don't want and they vetted, they vetted his remarks.
Speaker 1: And reportedly he was planning to call Kama Harris the
Speaker 1: C word and they were like that's too far. But
Speaker 1: everything else and not just this Puerto Rico joke they
Speaker 1: left in. So I mean, I do sort of agree
Speaker 1: that the blame really lies at the feet of the
Speaker 1: Trump campaign for thinking that this was a good idea,
Speaker 1: knowing like looking at his body of work and being like, yes,
Speaker 1: this is a great thing to have at our political
Speaker 1: rally because of course he's going to do the thing
Speaker 1: that he does.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I mean, I have no idea why it committe.
Speaker 2: I think I said that too, even though I'm not
Speaker 2: you know whatever, I still think A lot of it
Speaker 2: is overblown. I don't know why you would have a
Speaker 2: comedian at a freaking rally period, Like, there's really no
Speaker 2: reason for it. Yeah, it has no precedence. It's not
Speaker 2: even one of those like old timey things that people
Speaker 2: used to do to like jazz up the crowd.
Speaker 3: They used to just have bands. We should bring that back, right,
Speaker 3: we should have band.
Speaker 1: It's also like, if you want to be edgy in
Speaker 1: that context, wouldn't you, as a roast comedian go after
Speaker 1: some of the like people that are there.
Speaker 4: Like that's the thing that really is like you know, I.
Speaker 2: Mean he hit some of the core constitutions easy went
Speaker 2: after some what did he tell some Jewish jokes? And
Speaker 2: he was telling some uh there there was there was
Speaker 2: some there. I think that well again and also a
Speaker 2: lot of it didn't hit land version Like.
Speaker 1: That's the whole thing of roast is like the Tom
Speaker 1: Brady Like Tom Brady's right there and you're saying some
Speaker 1: wild shit to his face instead of like, here's some
Speaker 1: demographic groups that we all hate, right, let's let's go
Speaker 1: after them. So anyway, that's uh, this Rogan's take on it.
Speaker 3: There you go
Speaker 5: A