1 00:00:03,520 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg surveillance. No matter what happens the US dollar, 2 00:00:07,760 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: will you need to strengthen, whether the FED hikes in 3 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:14,080 Speaker 1: June or week December. The US economy is in very 4 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:16,279 Speaker 1: good shape right now, better shape than I have been 5 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:19,239 Speaker 1: from US a decade. We're washing around, mocking time before 6 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:21,360 Speaker 1: the next leg higher in the US dollar. I'm just 7 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: not completely comfortable in my mind with whether it's led 8 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 1: by this risk aversion or this FED tip. Bloomberg surveillance 9 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 1: your link to the world of economics, finance, and investment 10 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:35,000 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Good morning at seven am on Wall 11 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:37,559 Speaker 1: Street noon in London. In the US, we will be 12 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 1: talking about adding jobs. In the UK, Jamie Diamond is 13 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:44,199 Speaker 1: talking about cutting them. The jp Morgan CEO goes to 14 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:47,920 Speaker 1: England today. He warning warns the Brits Brexit Mike force 15 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:51,480 Speaker 1: JPMorgan to cut back some of their sixteen thousand employees 16 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: there in. The pound is lower this morning. By the way, 17 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 1: stocks though generally higher around the world, except here in 18 00:00:57,680 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 1: the U S where they are flat ahead of the 19 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 1: ABS report eight thirty Wall Street Time. US futures right now, 20 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:06,840 Speaker 1: as I mentioned, SMP features literally flat down futures up 21 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:09,839 Speaker 1: eight points. That a minuscule percentage increase, and ASDAK features 22 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 1: are down four uh that's about a tenth of a percent. 23 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:16,479 Speaker 1: In Europe, more conviction, the stock six hundred up by 24 00:01:16,520 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 1: two points, six tenths of eight percent, the foots he's 25 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:22,560 Speaker 1: up fifty eight nine tenths, and the docks in Germany 26 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 1: sixty one points higher six tenths of a percent. Here's 27 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:29,280 Speaker 1: what you need to know about the jobs report. It 28 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 1: will be distorted, perhaps badly by the Verizon strike, so 29 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 1: traders and the Fed will have to do some mental adjustments. 30 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 1: A hundred and sixty thousand is the consensus forecast. Jim 31 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:41,120 Speaker 1: Buggle of FTN told us yesterday on the show. The 32 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:44,760 Speaker 1: bond market already has done the adjustments. He's not expecting 33 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 1: big moves unless there's a big surprise. Right now. Through 34 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 1: your note, you'll going for eighty nine basis points the 35 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 1: five year one point three five percent. In your tenure 36 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 1: note you'll comes in at one point eight. All those 37 00:01:57,160 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 1: a little bit lower than they have been the last 38 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 1: couple of days. Oil not a lot of movement, but 39 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 1: brent over fifty dollars fifty dollars and one cent right now, 40 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:11,160 Speaker 1: West Texas ten. It's job's day. A lot going on. 41 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 1: Let's dive right in. Howard Board is chief investment Officer 42 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:16,840 Speaker 1: at gam Colle, which means he's in charge of climbing 43 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 1: the wall of worry out there this month. Not only 44 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 1: jobs today, Janet Yelling on Monday, the Fed in general. 45 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 1: She has Humphrey Hawkins testimony in a week or show 46 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 1: Donald Trump. I mean, there are so many things that 47 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 1: could go wrong. Let me start by asking you, what's 48 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: the blackest swan out there? What scares you the most? Well, 49 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:42,440 Speaker 1: I don't scare easily, uh, Mike, And I guess, um, 50 00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 1: I don't think. I don't put a high probability on this. 51 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 1: But right now, when I look at things like the 52 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 1: global p m I, I see a number that I 53 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 1: would like to think is trending higher, and actually it 54 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 1: seems to be trending lower. The global pm I for 55 00:02:57,080 --> 00:03:01,800 Speaker 1: manufacturing right around the fifty mark um not going the 56 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:04,360 Speaker 1: way i'd like. So I don't think there is a 57 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:07,360 Speaker 1: recession on the near term horizon, and I don't want 58 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 1: to encourage that thought. But in terms of a black 59 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:12,679 Speaker 1: black swan, to me, if these p m I s 60 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:16,959 Speaker 1: don't get in gear and start accelerating to the up side. 61 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 1: Then we have to start entering we start we have 62 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 1: to start talking at least about the possibility of a recession, 63 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 1: although I do think that's premature at this point. Well, 64 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:28,080 Speaker 1: the p M I S would be the symptom. What 65 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 1: what's the cause of of this? Well, you've had the 66 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 1: problems with the strong dollar, which should be hopefully mostly 67 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 1: behind us. Now that's the good news. We've had the 68 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 1: huge pullback in the energy industry. Again, a lot of 69 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 1: the pullback should be behind us. Also good news. Other 70 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 1: than that, you know, we've had a tremendous regulatory burden 71 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 1: UH increase in recent years, and I think that has 72 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 1: hurt UH company's ability and willingness to invest. We have 73 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 1: a corporate tax issue in the United States, which makes 74 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 1: us somewhat uncompetitive and leads to companies hoarding cash overseas UM. 75 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 1: So I think we need to work on corporate taxes. 76 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 1: I think we need to work on the regulatory burden 77 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:15,120 Speaker 1: that's being heaped on America. I think Obamacare has been 78 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 1: a bit of a problem for growth as well. UH. 79 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 1: The average I shouldn't say the average, but more than 80 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:23,600 Speaker 1: fifty of us households now have a healthcare deductible of 81 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: a thousand dollars or more, and ten years ago very 82 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:32,360 Speaker 1: few households had that. So people are paying more for healthcare, 83 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 1: paying more out of pocket, and are so about ten 84 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: years ago, uh, fewer than ten percent of households had 85 00:04:41,279 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 1: a one thousand dollar deductible on their medical premium. Now 86 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 1: it's over half the country and so um, that's that's 87 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:50,760 Speaker 1: how we love to have you on. That's that's really 88 00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:53,360 Speaker 1: that's one of those little factoids that I don't think. 89 00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:57,040 Speaker 1: I'm not you know, you know, I'm all for the 90 00:04:57,160 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: goals of of of Obamacare, but it is expensive and 91 00:05:01,720 --> 00:05:05,839 Speaker 1: has not lived up to the promises on spending reductions, 92 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:08,680 Speaker 1: and especially for individual families. I would know Tom that 93 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 1: even Hillary Clinton in her speeches last couple days have 94 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: been talking about fixes to Albamacare. Yeah, that would bring 95 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:20,600 Speaker 1: the costs terrific perspective. Good morning everyone, Mike, what an 96 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 1: extraordinary morning. I mean, going eight ten different ways. You 97 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 1: mentioned Mr Diamond over in England and Job's day and 98 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 1: the rest of it. Uh, futures flat. As Michael mentioned, 99 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 1: I guess I'd watch Yen right now as well. Bloomberg 100 00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 1: surveillance brought you by Investco. This job's day. If you 101 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:45,920 Speaker 1: considered all your investment alternatives, nontraditional asset classes and strategies 102 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 1: may help you achieve your goals. Find out more investco 103 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 1: dot com slash alternatives Mike notice the headline out a Valiant. 104 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 1: I don't think it's a big deal. It isn't really Valiant. 105 00:05:56,880 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 1: It's odd filed their ten Q and they they have 106 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 1: bond covenants that if they don't file, they're in default. 107 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: Thereof uh, and they have gotten another notice that they 108 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:11,679 Speaker 1: are in default, but everybody knew they were in default. 109 00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 1: They have sixty days from the receipt of this notice 110 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:16,280 Speaker 1: to file the ten que and they have said they 111 00:06:16,279 --> 00:06:19,679 Speaker 1: will file it on or before June tenth. So next 112 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: week is the week to watch hard Lord. What is 113 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 1: your enthusiasm for equities right now? Is a general statement? 114 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:28,960 Speaker 1: Are you waking up saying this is a terrific set 115 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:32,160 Speaker 1: of worries? I gotta be on board. I want to 116 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 1: participate with enthusiasm. Are you hedged? Are you building cash 117 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 1: and no time? Uh? No, hedges relatively enthusiastic. I would 118 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 1: say that one of the one of the interesting things 119 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 1: that I look at is sentiment. Sentiment is extremely bearish 120 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 1: right now, if we can look at that in a 121 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:58,200 Speaker 1: couple of different ways. The AII Investor Poll, the percentage 122 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: of investors that are bullish is about seventeen percent. That's 123 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 1: the lowest since two thousand and five. And I'd also 124 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 1: point out that, uh, year to date, we've had seventy 125 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 1: one billion dollars withdrawn from US equity funds. Uh. You know, 126 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 1: here in the US that number is already as big 127 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 1: as all of the redemptions in two thousand and eight, 128 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 1: and so uh and and and and globally the number 129 00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 1: exceeds a hundred billion dollars. So people have been selling stocks, 130 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 1: not buying stocks, and I think been have been overly 131 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 1: pessimistic about the rest of this year. Brilliant. Do you 132 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 1: assume dividend growth is a yield alternative? How do you 133 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 1: handle that tough, almost philosophical question. Well, you know, we've 134 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: seen the last fifteen years, the SMP five hundred has 135 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 1: UH provided a total return of closer to six percent 136 00:07:54,160 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 1: than its historical ten And part of that has to 137 00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 1: do from the starting point of a very high valuation. 138 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:01,840 Speaker 1: Part of it all has also has to do with 139 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 1: the so called new new normal of lower GDP growth 140 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 1: because ultimately equity returns are somewhat uh hostage to long 141 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 1: term nominal GDP UH growth rates, and so the dividend 142 00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:19,440 Speaker 1: growth in a lower return environment, the yield and the 143 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:21,880 Speaker 1: growth of the dividend becomes a bigger component of your 144 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:25,239 Speaker 1: total return. And the historical dividend growth of about five 145 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 1: percent may not be quite that high going forward, but 146 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:32,720 Speaker 1: UH three to four percent growth on a starting dividend 147 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 1: yield of a of around two percent UH in this 148 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:39,800 Speaker 1: day and age is an important part of your return 149 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:43,280 Speaker 1: and uh and and we'll be going forward. Do you 150 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 1: want to make it more important given the environment you're describing, 151 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,640 Speaker 1: or you're not getting defensive yet? Well, I don't think 152 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 1: you want to be too defensive, both because defensive stocks 153 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: are pretty highly priced relative to the less defensive group UM, 154 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 1: and also because the economic fundamentals should be improving over 155 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 1: the balance of this year, which should lead to more 156 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:07,679 Speaker 1: of a risk on environment, which should tend to favor 157 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 1: the less defensive stocks. In fact, UH, so far this year, 158 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 1: it may not be intuitive, but the less defensive parts 159 00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 1: of the market, the energy names, for example, have been 160 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:24,080 Speaker 1: the strongest underlying groups. Uh, within somewhere buying energy yet Well, Uh, 161 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 1: we're not big energy investors. On my side of the firm, 162 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:31,040 Speaker 1: where we're growth investors. We have a small position, and energy, 163 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 1: which we haven't touched, is an energy by definition growth 164 00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:37,200 Speaker 1: at this point because all the value has been wiped out. Well, 165 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: that's that's a that's a fair point. Uh. So I 166 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 1: would not be chasing after energy stocks at this point. 167 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 1: They've had a pretty significant recovery very quickly. Or I 168 00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 1: love when you're run because I looked for things on 169 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg that I haven't looked at in ages. I 170 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 1: have no idea of the Johnson and john Should leg 171 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:58,920 Speaker 1: up that we've seen in price over the last couple 172 00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:01,600 Speaker 1: of months, I mean the last say ten months. You 173 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 1: mentioned the Affordable Care Act. Is that an opportunity in 174 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:10,200 Speaker 1: health stocks with all the mystery and worry about it? Well, Tom, Uh, 175 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 1: it has been good for the healthcare group. But we're 176 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 1: an election season now for a presidential campaign, and you 177 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:22,840 Speaker 1: have both of these candidates talking about making uh, getting 178 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:27,200 Speaker 1: more price concessions from, for example, the big farmer companies 179 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 1: like jane Ja. So I would be a little bit 180 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 1: careful there. And again, Uh, j J is a fabulous company. 181 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 1: Jane J is a company with four to five organic growth. Uh, 182 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 1: and you're paying a pretty stiff multiple for that today. 183 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:45,960 Speaker 1: You know, I probably wouldn't be out to load up 184 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:48,440 Speaker 1: on it. Let's come back with Howard Ward this morning. 185 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:53,679 Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna check out with Michael Byr now 186 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:56,440 Speaker 1: and get the latest world in national headlines. Mine, Tom, 187 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:59,360 Speaker 1: thank you very much. A group of protesters attack Donald 188 00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:02,720 Speaker 1: Trump's report orders who were leaving the candidates rally in 189 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:06,560 Speaker 1: San Jose, California, last night. A dozen or more people 190 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 1: were punched. At least one person was pelted with an 191 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:13,440 Speaker 1: egg and Trump hats grabbed from supporters. They were set 192 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:16,720 Speaker 1: on fire on the ground. Police took four people into custody. 193 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:20,080 Speaker 1: The search continues for four missing soldiers after their carrier 194 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 1: overturned and the rain swollen creek at Fort Hood, Texas. 195 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: Five other soldiers were killed. A Japanese boy abandoned in 196 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:30,080 Speaker 1: the forest by his parents has been found safe in 197 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,880 Speaker 1: the military hunt in a training area. Officials say the 198 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:35,960 Speaker 1: boy appeared worn out, but it was okay. His parents 199 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:38,679 Speaker 1: trying to teach him a lesson for misbehaving made him 200 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,080 Speaker 1: get out of the car last Saturday. They couldn't find 201 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:44,520 Speaker 1: him when they returned several minutes later. Global News twenty 202 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:48,319 Speaker 1: four hours a day, powered by our journalists. I'm Michael 203 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:51,160 Speaker 1: barr To Michael barn Thanks so much this job, say 204 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:54,400 Speaker 1: Alan Krueger, Jim Glass when and Bill Gross will be 205 00:11:54,480 --> 00:11:58,440 Speaker 1: with us right now. Howard Ward of Gamco, Michael mckaye 206 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:07,120 Speaker 1: and Tom King stay with us. Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance 207 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 1: brought to by National Realty Returns on Cash and rented 208 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:12,840 Speaker 1: real Estate. Find them at n r I, a dot 209 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 1: net broadcasting live to New York, Bloomberg eleventh to Washington, 210 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 1: d C. Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve hounds to San Francisco, 211 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:37,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg to the country. Sees at JAMN General one ninety 212 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:41,679 Speaker 1: and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus Appen Bloomberg 213 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 1: dot Com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good morning, seven thirty. 214 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 1: On jobs today, I'm Michael McKee along with Tom Keene. 215 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 1: Outside of jobs, some news that people are watching. Tom 216 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 1: Barracks Colony Capitol going to combine with north Star Realty 217 00:12:56,679 --> 00:13:00,440 Speaker 1: Finance and north Star Asset Management Group. All Star Deal 218 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:04,240 Speaker 1: forms a real estate investment trust fifty eight billion under management. 219 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:08,000 Speaker 1: Mentioned this earlier. JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Diamond wades 220 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 1: into the Brexit debate, warning in England today the investment 221 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 1: bank may have to cut jobs in the UK if 222 00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:15,560 Speaker 1: the country decides to exit the European Union. The bank 223 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:19,720 Speaker 1: has more than sixteen thousand employees. They're being capital pag 224 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 1: Asia Capital evaluating bids for Takata, the Japanese airbank bag 225 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:27,200 Speaker 1: supplier behind that record safety recall. That's according to people 226 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:30,440 Speaker 1: familiar with the matter. And Delta and United Continental are 227 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:35,400 Speaker 1: weighing bids for Avianca, Columbia's state owned airline, exploring strategic options, 228 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 1: they say, including a full or partial sale. Let's chok 229 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 1: out with Michael Barr now and get the latest world 230 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 1: and national headlines by Mike, Thank you very much. The 231 00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:47,720 Speaker 1: search continues for four soldiers who are missing after their 232 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:52,079 Speaker 1: troop carrier overturned in a rain swollen creek at four Wood, Texas. 233 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:56,160 Speaker 1: Five other soldiers were killed. Defense Secretary Ash Carter. We're 234 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 1: going to make sure that we learned lessons that we 235 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 1: can from the investigations we conduct after these incidents and 236 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 1: that we take actions in the future to prevent such 237 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:11,840 Speaker 1: accidents and keep our people safe. Near Nashville, Tennessee, a 238 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 1: pilot was killed when his Blue Angels fighter jet crashed. 239 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 1: President Obama used his final commencement address to a US 240 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 1: military academy to urge Air Force cadets to find the 241 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 1: right balance between force and diplomacy. The presidential the Air 242 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 1: Force Academy's class of that they must not allow the 243 00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 1: US to turn away from the world. At least nineteen 244 00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 1: journalists were attacked while covering food protests in downtown Caracas. 245 00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:41,680 Speaker 1: That's according to a non governmental organization that monitors freedom 246 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 1: of expression in Venezuela's capital. The assaults included robberies allegedly 247 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 1: by members of the National Guard and armed civilians. Global 248 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 1: News twenty four Hours a Day. I'm Michael bar Mike, 249 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 1: Thank you, Michael. Time now for the Bloomberg innbcs A 250 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 1: Landover participan the sports Update. Here's jes alright, Mike. A 251 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 1: surprise in Game one of the NBA Finals, not Golden 252 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 1: State winning, but the way the Warriors won, getting more 253 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 1: points from their backup guards than they're much more heralded 254 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 1: starter Steph Curry and Clay Thompson together scored twenty points 255 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:17,680 Speaker 1: and Sean Livingston had that by himself. Leanro Barbosa added 256 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 1: eleven off the bench. Those two shot to combine thirteen 257 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 1: for fifteen, and the Warriors won Game one one oh 258 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 1: four to eighty nine. The Calves came from fourteen down 259 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 1: to briefly lead in the third quarter, but the Warriors 260 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:31,640 Speaker 1: pulled away from there. Bench scoring was forty five to 261 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:34,560 Speaker 1: ten for Golden State came to his Sunday again in 262 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: open took a while for the Yankees, didn't get a 263 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:38,440 Speaker 1: hit until the sixth inning, but finally some runs four 264 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 1: in the seventh. They held on to win the rainout 265 00:15:41,200 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 1: makeup in Detroit five to four, Baltimore meat the Red 266 00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 1: Sox twelve to seven as the Oils hit seven on runs. 267 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:50,520 Speaker 1: Seattle sixteen, San Diego thirteen. The Mariners trail twelve to 268 00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:53,200 Speaker 1: two in the sixth inning and came back to win. 269 00:15:53,280 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 1: The Mets were off. They have put David right under 270 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 1: the disabled dist with that naggy neck injury that they 271 00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:00,560 Speaker 1: say could keep him out for a prolonged period. Serina 272 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:03,720 Speaker 1: Williams down three one opening set of or semifinal match 273 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:07,240 Speaker 1: at the French Open with Kiki barton the Bloomberg NBC 274 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 1: Sports Up. I'm John Stash. Thank you John. They always 275 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 1: say watched the dollar, and we are watching the dollar 276 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:17,880 Speaker 1: ahead of the jobs report. It is a scouch stronger, 277 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 1: shall we say, against most currencies, but um, the end 278 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:25,720 Speaker 1: is UH is unchanged right now. The year an one 279 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 1: O eight seven and the pound. Of course, they've got 280 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 1: their own issues to worry about over in Great Britain 281 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:39,200 Speaker 1: as they prepare for the Brexit vote. Ahead for us 282 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:42,400 Speaker 1: here on Bloomberg Surveillance, it's the jobs report coming up. 283 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,120 Speaker 1: We're gonna talk with Alan Krueger and then we'll get 284 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:48,440 Speaker 1: a preview from James Classman of JP Morgan Chase and 285 00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:52,920 Speaker 1: get reaction from Bill Gross. The market is putting in 286 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 1: a little bit of a positive tone right now. SMP 287 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 1: features up by a point, down features up by sixteen. 288 00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 1: We were becalling homed earlier, but we are getting closer 289 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 1: and closer to the number. An hour from now. We're 290 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:06,480 Speaker 1: going to check in with Bob Moon now and get 291 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 1: the Blueberg n j I T STEM Report brought to 292 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:13,359 Speaker 1: you by New Jersey Institute of Technology investing more than 293 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 1: a ten million dollars a year and applied research to 294 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 1: solve problems and improve life. They are more stories of 295 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:21,720 Speaker 1: innovation dot n J I T dot EU. Bob Michael, 296 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:24,879 Speaker 1: Good morning. Here's what's making news in science, technology, engineering 297 00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:28,040 Speaker 1: and math. This summer and fall, the Atlantic Ocean could 298 00:17:28,080 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 1: become a hurricane testing site of sorts. After decades of warmth. 299 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:34,920 Speaker 1: There's evidence the Atlantic is cooling and that change could 300 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:38,480 Speaker 1: mean fewer hurricanes, breaking havoc on coastal communities and economies. 301 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:41,680 Speaker 1: It's part of a cycle called the Atlantic multi decatal 302 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 1: oscillation and convinced they stick these terms in just a 303 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 1: test us, let's call it the A m O for short. 304 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:50,120 Speaker 1: Not nearly as snappy as El Nino in the Pacific, 305 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:52,720 Speaker 1: but this could even overshadow that. The theory is that 306 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 1: the Atlantic cools and warms every twenty to forty years, 307 00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:59,840 Speaker 1: changing the African monsoon and easterly jet stream, air pressure 308 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,560 Speaker 1: over the ocean, and levels of wind shear. All these 309 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 1: can add or to track from hurricane lifespans. The thing 310 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:08,160 Speaker 1: is not everyone believes the A m O effects hurricanes 311 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:11,480 Speaker 1: that way. There are competing hypotheses, and this cycle is 312 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:13,680 Speaker 1: giving scientists more of the data they need to build 313 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:17,200 Speaker 1: their knowledge on effects of this phenomenon. Honeywell is warning 314 00:18:17,200 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 1: of growing cyber attacks by state sponsored hackers. Cybersecurity provider 315 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:25,200 Speaker 1: says they're increasingly targeting industrial facilities from oil refineries to 316 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 1: nuclear power plants with sophisticated attacks aimed at capturing data 317 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:32,920 Speaker 1: and remotely controlling the sites. Honey will provide cybersecurity for 318 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:36,359 Speaker 1: more than four hundred industrial sites worldwide. And Walmart is 319 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:39,159 Speaker 1: linking up with Uber and Lift, using their services to 320 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:43,520 Speaker 1: enlist drivers in grocery deliveries. The world's biggest retailer is 321 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:46,480 Speaker 1: aiming to match the convenience of services offered by Amazon 322 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:49,399 Speaker 1: dot Com and other e commerce companies. That's this morning's 323 00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg and j I T Stem Report. Michael Babo, thank 324 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:55,840 Speaker 1: you very much. That is almost a kind of perfect 325 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 1: set up for our next guest, Alan Krueger is of course, 326 00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 1: so with Princeton University. It was the former chief economists 327 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 1: as the Labor Department in the Treasury Department and a 328 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:06,560 Speaker 1: guy who has done a lot of work on the 329 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 1: labor market, including this new gig economy. Alan, what's the 330 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:16,400 Speaker 1: latest on what you've found about the gig economy. I mean, 331 00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 1: they're gonna start delivering groceries in uber and lift cars. 332 00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 1: It's one more set of jobs that in theory goes away. Well, actually, 333 00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:28,359 Speaker 1: that's probably a whole new set of jobs, um, since 334 00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,600 Speaker 1: it's not so easy to get your groceries over there now. Um. 335 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:33,520 Speaker 1: But I think it makes a fair amount of sense 336 00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:39,600 Speaker 1: because the area where we've seen online gig economy the 337 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 1: most is transportation and food delivery uberscrubhub, and in some 338 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 1: sense this is a merger of those two. If I 339 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:52,240 Speaker 1: want to look at the job's report in any particular 340 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:55,600 Speaker 1: month and see the impact where of the gig economy, 341 00:19:55,680 --> 00:20:00,040 Speaker 1: where would I look? You won't find it up a 342 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 1: couple of reasons. One, in the establishment survey, the parrels 343 00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:08,880 Speaker 1: to say, ah, only employees are on the payroll are included, 344 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:14,480 Speaker 1: and the gig workers are overwhelmingly independent contractors, And the 345 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:18,560 Speaker 1: household survey does a terrible job picking it up. So 346 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:24,440 Speaker 1: I don't think that these UH workers are being reflected 347 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,240 Speaker 1: in many of our current statistics. But at the same time, 348 00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:31,359 Speaker 1: it's still quite small. Various estimates point that only had 349 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,280 Speaker 1: half a percent of the u S workforce is involved 350 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:38,119 Speaker 1: in some type of online gig work. Is This is 351 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,119 Speaker 1: something though, that needs to be addressed by the Bureau 352 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:45,879 Speaker 1: of Labor Statistics, growing enough that it distorts the numbers 353 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:50,760 Speaker 1: and policymakers don't really know who's doing what. I think 354 00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:53,159 Speaker 1: we need to do a much better job job tracking it. 355 00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 1: At a minimum, we need to do the contingent worker 356 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:59,639 Speaker 1: survey more frequently. But even the worker survey, which hasn't 357 00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:03,440 Speaker 1: been done since it as of five by the BLS, 358 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 1: has some problems when it comes to the big economy 359 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,240 Speaker 1: since it focuses on the main job and a lot 360 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 1: of workers are doing this part time as a secondary. 361 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,160 Speaker 1: Let me bring in Tom here with a question. He 362 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,959 Speaker 1: asked me on the air this morning and I couldn't answer. 363 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:20,760 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna put it to you, because you're the 364 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:25,920 Speaker 1: smarter guy here. When you look at the the job 365 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:27,960 Speaker 1: creation on a month to month basis, over the last 366 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:32,159 Speaker 1: two years, standard deviation and change has dwindled away to 367 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 1: almost nothing. It's about one standard deviation per month um. 368 00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:41,160 Speaker 1: Why why have we gotten so incredibly consistent in job creation? 369 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,680 Speaker 1: You know, that's a really good question. Uh. I think 370 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:49,160 Speaker 1: it looked at g DPS playing something similar. Even though 371 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 1: there are big fluctuations, they're actually less than they had 372 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,879 Speaker 1: been quarter the quarter, and I think we're seeing to 373 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 1: some standard continuation of the moderation that existed before the 374 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:04,040 Speaker 1: Great Recession. Uh. Why that's taking place is not so clear, 375 00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:06,640 Speaker 1: but I think this does look a lot like we 376 00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:11,120 Speaker 1: were seeing, uh for the Great Recession, certainly in terms 377 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:16,360 Speaker 1: of quarterly GDP fluctuations. Well, does it have implications at 378 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:21,640 Speaker 1: all for for policy or is it just an interesting factoid? Well, 379 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 1: I think it makes like a little bit easier for 380 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 1: policymakers because it makes it a little bit easier to 381 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:30,120 Speaker 1: read the tea leaves if the leaves are moving around lass. 382 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 1: At the same time, the revisions to the data are 383 00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 1: still quite large, so um, I think we haven't narrowed 384 00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:45,800 Speaker 1: the sampling variability that comes along with measuring the US economy. 385 00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 1: But the US company itself is being a little bit 386 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,800 Speaker 1: more stable, and I think that's a positive thing for 387 00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:53,679 Speaker 1: for the US. It means that we're growing in a 388 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:57,880 Speaker 1: steady pace. Krueger is with us. It is jobs day. 389 00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 1: Of course, we have remember tom Ad magazine used having 390 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,879 Speaker 1: its mass dead, the usual gang of idiots. We have 391 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:07,560 Speaker 1: the usual gang of really smart people joining us today 392 00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:10,600 Speaker 1: coming up, Jim Glassman and then Bill Gross and uh 393 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 1: Scott Mather. So you don't want to turn your dial. 394 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 1: Stay with us here on Blueberg Surveillance Jobs Day. Bloomberg 395 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 1: Surveillance brought to by Bank of America Merrill Lynch seeing 396 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:25,960 Speaker 1: what others have seen, but uncovering what others may not. 397 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:28,800 Speaker 1: Global research that helps you a harness disruption. Go to 398 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,400 Speaker 1: top global research from five years running Merrill Lynch, peerce Fitner, 399 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:32,399 Speaker 1: and Smith Incorporated