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Speaker 1: Good luck for the most beautiful game? Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're up for running a game so smooth,

3
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Speaker 1: so sweet.

4
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Speaker 2: Splendid, sixteing, just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for

5
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Speaker 2: is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: How shut with that?

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Speaker 2: Shop with mind, buddy, And that's why you see your

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Speaker 2: beautiful Tias.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous a mount on the planet. Nobody picture them. Shut up.

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Speaker 1: I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The love it left to wonder, White eyed, drilled bibus.

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Speaker 2: How old on Earth did that happened?

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Speaker 3: Hello areyone, and welcome back to Wondergold, the sacar betting

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Speaker 3: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Lipa

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Speaker 3: and joining me on this episode is BJ Cunningham. Sam

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Speaker 3: Ingram is on his annual leave, so enjoy your time off.

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Speaker 1: Sam. We are thinking of you.

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Speaker 3: I also am a little under the weather, so I

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Speaker 3: apologize for that, but beach. So this one's on BJ

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Speaker 3: to do the heavy lifting, which is not all that

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Speaker 3: different from every episode, but it's a fun one. I

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Speaker 3: actually think this slate is my favorite of the season

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Speaker 3: so far. From a bending perspective, there's a lot to

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Speaker 3: dig into here and I think a lot of chances

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Speaker 3: to make Hay, but we have to start with the

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Speaker 3: headliner between two title hopeful not lester and evident.

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Speaker 1: We'll get to them in a little bit.

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Speaker 3: We'll do City and Arsenal to kick things off first

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Speaker 3: and second. In the past two seasons the two favorites

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Speaker 3: coming in City look like it's just a train right now.

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Speaker 3: Early Holland is scoring for fun Arsenal with a big

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Speaker 3: win in the North London Derby last weekend one nill

34
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Speaker 3: over Spurs. We are recording this before their match with

35
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Speaker 3: Adelant on Thursday. City was in action as well in

36
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Speaker 3: the Champions League this week. They are minus one thirty

37
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Speaker 3: home favorites, Arsenal traveling plus three fifty. The draw is

38
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Speaker 3: plus two to seventy. It's one of our favorite bets

39
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Speaker 3: to make of the Premier League year. We get to

40
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Speaker 3: do it at least twice a year, maybe a couple

41
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Speaker 3: other times if they meet in cups at some point.

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Speaker 3: The nil nil in this or the under in City

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Speaker 3: and Arsenal in what is just I think in all

44
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Speaker 3: of Europe, in all of European soccer, if you wanted

45
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Speaker 3: to take two teams to guarantee yourself the likeliest outcome

46
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Speaker 3: of a really boring match. I think these are the

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Speaker 3: two I honestly do, and which is crazy to say

48
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Speaker 3: because they are the two best teams on the entire continent,

49
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Speaker 3: but with the way they go about their business, like

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Speaker 3: it's like, how does how do we say this a

51
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Speaker 3: lot about when teams are like laying minus two ten

52
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Speaker 3: with Manchester United against like a team like west Ham

53
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Speaker 3: or Fulham or whatever, a mid table team. I just

54
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Speaker 3: want to find the person out there who's betting the

55
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Speaker 3: over two and a half here and isn't just saying

56
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Speaker 3: Holland'll get us there on it, it's on his own,

57
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Speaker 3: because that's really hard to do against this Arsenal defense.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I.

59
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Speaker 3: Fully endorse any unders anything related to the under. Of course,

60
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Speaker 3: the nil nil like plus ten eighty looks a really

61
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Speaker 3: fun bet to make for this eleven thirty am Eastern

62
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Speaker 3: Time kickoff on Sunday morning.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

64
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Speaker 2: I mean, if you want to build a same game

65
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Speaker 2: parlay of just everything correlated to nil nol, you could

66
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Speaker 2: probably get a pretty decent sized payout. But I mean

67
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Speaker 2: you hit there on the head, like if you're a

68
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Speaker 2: neutral and you're just like, oh, it's Arsenal in City,

69
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Speaker 2: Like that'll be fun. Sunday warning right before NFL starts,

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Speaker 2: go watch Everton and Lester because that's gonna be way

71
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Speaker 2: more exciting than this match. This match is gonna be boring, okay,

72
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Speaker 2: like it just it is where it is every single time.

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Speaker 2: So Arsenal went straight terrorism ball against Toddenham and it worked. Essentially,

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Speaker 2: they were playing like a f at times Michael who

75
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Speaker 2: was like a six to four, five to five, and

76
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Speaker 2: they were sitting just as deep as they possibly could

77
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Speaker 2: and just not allowing Tottenham to have any space in

78
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Speaker 2: between the lines or even playing through the middle. And

79
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Speaker 2: that's pretty much exactly what they did against City in

80
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Speaker 2: that second meeting last season. They sat into four to

81
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Speaker 2: four to two, the two forwards dropped so that City

82
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Speaker 2: couldn't create a midfield overload, but City kept trying to

83
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Speaker 2: do it. But because Arsenal was defending so deep, even

84
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Speaker 2: though City kept inverting photin Silva de Bruyna, they were

85
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Speaker 2: trying to get a five v four in the middle.

86
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Speaker 2: But it's just here's the problem. Like overloading the middle

87
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Speaker 2: is great, but when it gets so freaking congested, like

88
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Speaker 2: you just can't play passes through there, and that's just

89
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Speaker 2: what makes it really difficult. So it'll be interesting to

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Speaker 2: see what lineup Pep goes with. You know, if Arsenal's

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Speaker 2: gonna play as compact as they as they're they're going

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Speaker 2: there as they're going to. You know, last season he

93
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Speaker 2: started Photin and Silva on the wings. I think it

94
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Speaker 2: would He's not gonna do it because he's gonna put

95
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Speaker 2: too much value on controlling the middle. But he should

96
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Speaker 2: start Doku and Savigno and just get Arsenal into one

97
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Speaker 2: v ones out wide. But again I don't think he's

98
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Speaker 2: going to do that. But Arsenal is very limited in

99
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Speaker 2: their attack. He saw that against Tottenham. They didn't really

100
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Speaker 2: generate much in transition, only point seven expectacles total for

101
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Speaker 2: the match, especially without Oda guard like Arsenal's. For them

102
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Speaker 2: to be successful, they got to hit City in the

103
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Speaker 2: wide areas and overloading those with ODA guard shading towards

104
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Speaker 2: Sokka is important for them. But you mentioned Earling Holland

105
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Speaker 2: the one team that's been able to shut him down

106
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Speaker 2: is Arsenal. Last two meetings last year, three shots in total,

107
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Speaker 2: not one shot with the next year rating over point one.

108
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Speaker 2: The reason for that is is because they always double him.

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Speaker 2: They always put Saliba and Rice excuse me, Saliba and

110
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Speaker 2: Gabrielle on him, and they just never allow really him

111
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Speaker 2: to get into a one v one against anything. And

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Speaker 2: so when City has so many people congest in the

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Speaker 2: middle of the pitch and they're not really having anybody

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Speaker 2: out wide descending crosses, like Gavardiol was their only really

115
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Speaker 2: option that match to send and crosses, and he's not

116
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Speaker 2: really good.

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Speaker 4: At doing that.

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Speaker 2: If you always have Holland doubled and you make everybody

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Speaker 2: else beat you, it's not a bad strategy against Manchester City.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I like under two and a half minus

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Speaker 2: one o five. I'll be shocked if this thing is

122
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Speaker 2: three goals. And I think if against three goals, there's

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Speaker 2: gonna have to be a penalty and there's gonna have

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Speaker 2: some bangers from outside the box. Otherwise I don't see

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Speaker 2: how let's getting three.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's yeah, I think you're if you're betting, if

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Speaker 3: you're betting it over here, like it's almost more. It

128
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Speaker 3: would almost like behoove you just to like bet the

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Speaker 3: the penalty takers to score, you know.

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Speaker 2: It's like it's yeah, which is sokker for Arsenal.

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Speaker 1: Right, if you so to play that, yeah, you don't

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Speaker 1: want to bet the Holland one, I guess.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Holland's will can be like yeah, I know, he's

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Speaker 2: probably gonna be like minus I mean he might be

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Speaker 2: a little lower. He might be like minus one twenty

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Speaker 2: or something like that.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so that City Arsenal, that that's excuse that sounds

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Speaker 3: the Sunday at eleven thirty. Let's move to Saturday now.

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Speaker 3: Oh and I also should note before we move on

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Speaker 3: from that, actually, what a what a fun stretch of

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Speaker 3: schedule for for city. It's already like they have a

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Speaker 3: picture pile up right like Arsenal, Like this is it

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Speaker 3: for both teams? Like it's a crazy city. Has Newcastle

144
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Speaker 3: next in the Premier League?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, which have you seen that line?

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Speaker 1: Yeah?

147
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Speaker 4: Oh boy, that's gonna be a fun one.

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Speaker 1: And then it's a trip to Bratislava.

149
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Speaker 4: Yeah.

150
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Speaker 3: After that they've got the EFL Cup, so obviously, then

151
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Speaker 3: they have the EFL Cup in the midweek after that.

152
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Speaker 1: And then another.

153
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Speaker 3: Week of Premier League then a trip to Bradoslava. These

154
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Speaker 3: guys are just playing way too much, and like you said,

155
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Speaker 3: this is for Arsenal will be Spurs trip to Bergamo

156
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Speaker 3: to play Atlanta then City. So yeah, all that helps

157
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Speaker 3: I think helps the cause with the the unders and

158
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Speaker 3: and then nil nil that these guys are already starting

159
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Speaker 3: to think about managing situations. All right, let's flip the

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Speaker 3: Saturday west Ham and Chelsea Saturday morning. This is a

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Speaker 3: home game.

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Speaker 1: For west Ham.

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Speaker 3: There plus two forty, Chelsea at plus one oh five

164
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Speaker 3: right now, and the draw is plus two eighty.

165
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Speaker 1: I kind of like Chelsea.

166
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Speaker 4: I do too.

167
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Speaker 3: I didn't think I would come here and say that,

168
00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:26,680
Speaker 3: but there's matchup wise, like Chelsea should be able to

169
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Speaker 3: score famous last words, but they should be able to

170
00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:31,880
Speaker 3: almost name it against this west Ham defense. And it's

171
00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:34,480
Speaker 3: going to be about whether or not west Ham can

172
00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:37,760
Speaker 3: can hang with them, because, as you noted on our

173
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Speaker 3: last episode, whatever is going on with west Ham the

174
00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:46,240
Speaker 3: past season plus now defensively is just kind of bonkers

175
00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:51,440
Speaker 3: over ten especially goals allowed already through these four matches.

176
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Speaker 3: You thought that they'd try to come into this season

177
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Speaker 3: with the pretty heavy emphasis on tidying things up, and

178
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Speaker 3: it just hasn't happened at all. So yeah, I think

179
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Speaker 3: Chelsea is fine at even money or better.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna play a little differently.

181
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Speaker 2: Like their team total over one and a half of

182
00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:11,800
Speaker 2: minus one thirty five just kind of isolate the Chelsea

183
00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:15,479
Speaker 2: offense versus the west Ham defense against Fulham.

184
00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:17,840
Speaker 4: Against Fulham of all teams.

185
00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:20,600
Speaker 2: Twenty one shots allowed, one and a half expected goals,

186
00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:23,200
Speaker 2: and the biggest chance that Fulham got the goal they

187
00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:26,600
Speaker 2: eventually got, came off across, which is a big problem

188
00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:28,679
Speaker 2: for west Ham. Last season they allowed the fifth most

189
00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:33,840
Speaker 2: crosses into the penalty area. The reason for that is

190
00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:38,360
Speaker 2: is because they just don't have good fullbacks defending in

191
00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:42,199
Speaker 2: one v one situations. And listen, for all the money

192
00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:44,720
Speaker 2: that Chelsea spent, they got a lot of good winners

193
00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:45,680
Speaker 2: that can dribble by you.

194
00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:46,280
Speaker 4: Right.

195
00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:50,640
Speaker 2: So with Nato and Midway King going up against you know,

196
00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:53,800
Speaker 2: sou Fall and Emerson, that's a that's a really good

197
00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:55,320
Speaker 2: matchup for them and they should be able to have

198
00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:57,760
Speaker 2: a monster day creating from out wide. But the other

199
00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:00,120
Speaker 2: problem that west Ham is having, and I think is

200
00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:04,720
Speaker 2: why their defense continues to be bad, is they're transitioning

201
00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:07,320
Speaker 2: from like the most direct team in the Premier League

202
00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:09,120
Speaker 2: to a team that now builds out of the back

203
00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:13,960
Speaker 2: and tries to control matches. Through four matches, they have

204
00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:17,800
Speaker 2: conceded seventy two high recoveries. That's the most in the

205
00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:20,560
Speaker 2: Premier League by a wide margin. They are turning the

206
00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:24,319
Speaker 2: ball over, you know, double digit times every single match

207
00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:28,000
Speaker 2: in their own final third. That is not sustainable. And

208
00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:30,840
Speaker 2: Chelsea's a very aggressive, high pressing team, so they should

209
00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:32,439
Speaker 2: be able to counter on They should be able to

210
00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:35,960
Speaker 2: pounce on that. The other thing is west Ham has

211
00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:39,199
Speaker 2: no ball stopping through the middle, just none. Slowy check

212
00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:43,600
Speaker 2: is completely cooked. You know, if they even if they decided,

213
00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:45,440
Speaker 2: it's hard. You know, Guido Rodriguez has been in there.

214
00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:47,040
Speaker 2: He's not a really good ball stopper either. So you

215
00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:48,480
Speaker 2: can just play right through the middle. You can play

216
00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:50,440
Speaker 2: out why you can play everywhere on this west Ham team.

217
00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:53,120
Speaker 2: The last thing I'll leave you with is towards the

218
00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,520
Speaker 2: end of last season Chelsea played west Ham. They hammered

219
00:10:56,559 --> 00:10:59,000
Speaker 2: them five to nothing and created four point one expected goals.

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Speaker 2: So I'm just gonna isolate their team total. I don't

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Speaker 2: hate to play on the Chelsea money line either, I

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Speaker 2: think there's value there, but I'm going through.

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Speaker 4: Team total over one and a half at minus one

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Speaker 4: thirty five.

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Speaker 3: Okay, that's the seven thirty kickoff. Let's move to ten

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Speaker 3: am Eastern time. Really intriguing one between Liverpool and Bournemouth,

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Speaker 3: with Liverpool as a prohibitive minus three sixty favorite at

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Speaker 3: anfield fortress and field of course was breached last weekend

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Speaker 3: by Notingham Forest and now Bournemyth will try to do

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Speaker 3: it as a plus eight fifty underdog. The draw is

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Speaker 3: plus five point fifty.

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Speaker 1: Here. You try not to let these things influence how you.

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Speaker 3: Bet, and oftentimes you see the betting market kind of

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Speaker 3: get impacted by Like I just can't see Liverpool losing

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Speaker 3: two matches in a row at home, right, It's just

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Speaker 3: really hard to see it. That said, this is this

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Speaker 3: is a tricky one for them. I think Bournemth has

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Speaker 3: posed some real problems for anybody in the Premier League

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Speaker 3: Eraola has them in really good nick. They don't seem

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Speaker 3: they kind of remind me of and just in terms

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Speaker 3: of their attitude and of Brentford and Brighton from a

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Speaker 3: couple of years ago. Like you just they just show

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Speaker 3: up and they're not overwhelmed by any situation. It doesn't

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Speaker 3: seem like they kind of just go about their business.

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Speaker 3: They played really well against Chelsea, I thought, in a

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Speaker 3: one nil defeat the fourteenth. Of course they had that

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Speaker 3: crazy comeback against Everton, And now when you look back

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Speaker 3: on their one one draw against Forrest to open the season,

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Speaker 3: it just doesn't look as bad, knowing what we know

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Speaker 3: about Forrest right now, right So one one draw against Forrest, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: like a one one draw against Forrest to start the year,

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Speaker 3: then then one one draw against Newcastle the next match,

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Speaker 3: the win against Everton and then a kind of tough

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Speaker 3: luck loss ish against Chelsea. It all looks on the

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Speaker 3: surface kind of ordinary, But I think it's there's more

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Speaker 3: to it here. I think Bournemouth had has room to grow.

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Speaker 3: The number is Bourne myth or nothing for me? But

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Speaker 3: this is a like I said, a betting board I

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Speaker 3: really like. So I just don't know if it'll make

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Speaker 3: my list. Like if this was on last week's episode,

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Speaker 3: I think I'd be much more interested. But I just

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Speaker 3: have I'm gonna be spread maybe spread too thin to

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Speaker 3: take a shot here on Bourne myth in trying to

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Speaker 3: beat breach infield again.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm kind of in the same boat here. Projected

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Speaker 2: a little bit of value on Bournemouth. You know, naturally

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Speaker 2: in these type of spots, as Liverpool tends to get

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Speaker 2: overvalued at home.

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Speaker 4: The Bournemouth press.

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Speaker 2: Uh, they didn't really press a whole lot against I

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Speaker 2: mean they did, They'd caused some problems with Chelsea. They

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Speaker 2: were able to beat them in transition a bunch of times.

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Speaker 2: But you know, I'm not sure that pressing this Liverpool

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Speaker 2: team is like the best method of actually beating them.

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Speaker 2: I think what Notingham Forest showed is the best method

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Speaker 2: beating Liverpool is that you know, they're not starting Darwin Nunias,

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Speaker 2: they don't have an out and out number nine. They're

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Speaker 2: just rotating a lot of guys around and if you

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Speaker 2: can sit deep and play very compact, you can keep

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Speaker 2: this Liverpool team out for quite a long time. I'm

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Speaker 2: not sure Borne is really gonna come with the mindset

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Speaker 2: of of doing that quite frankly. You know, Liverpool they

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Speaker 2: allowed a goal against AC Milan and the Champions League

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Speaker 2: early on to Pool Sich. It was a transition break

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Speaker 2: off of a corner and nobody just picked him up

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Speaker 2: and he was able to put in the back on that.

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Speaker 2: That was kind of That's been kind of a rarity

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Speaker 2: for Liverpool. They've been really good in transition defense outside

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Speaker 2: of that one, you know, blimp. So I think they

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Speaker 2: should be able to defend well here, I mean, if anything,

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Speaker 2: and the number is getting worse, but under three and

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Speaker 2: a half, I guess minus one twenty is a you know,

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Speaker 2: has a little bit of value as well. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: like you said, there's there's so many other bets I

295
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Speaker 2: like on this board that I think I'm just gonna

296
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Speaker 2: steer clear of Liverpool right now, because you know, I

297
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Speaker 2: really want to see, what I mean, maybe this is

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Speaker 2: a situation to live back, but I want to see

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Speaker 2: what Warmouth decides to do. If they go bosst the

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Speaker 2: wall and miss overs, you know, then this under my cook.

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Speaker 2: So so I'm just passing on.

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Speaker 4: This one, all right.

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Speaker 3: Tottenham and Brentford up next. Spurs minus one ninety at home,

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Speaker 3: Brentford traveling at plus four to eighty.

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Speaker 1: The draw is plus three sixty. I like to be's here.

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Speaker 1: I think they're live.

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Speaker 4: We do this every time, I.

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Speaker 3: Guess the Spurs team, Yeah, exactly right, Like this is

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Speaker 3: a pretty easy one to find, I think, to find

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Speaker 3: the right side. And Brentford had been I think just

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Speaker 3: like a really competent team out of the out of

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Speaker 3: the Gates. There there's stats say there bang average right there.

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Speaker 3: Two wins, two losses from four six goals for six

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Speaker 3: goals against their expected goals numbers are basically even their

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Speaker 3: expected points kind of put them exactly.

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Speaker 1: Where they are.

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Speaker 3: And but you look at take a step back and

318
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Speaker 3: you look at who they've played, right A Crystal Palace.

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Speaker 3: They beat Crystal Palace out of the Gates Palace team,

320
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Speaker 3: A lot of people were Bolloshan took care of business

321
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Speaker 3: against Southampton at home in what was a whopper of

322
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Speaker 3: a performance, nearly four expectacles for Brentford and that one

323
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Speaker 3: and then the losses were to Liverpool and City, both

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Speaker 3: on the road. So there's something. I think there's an

325
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Speaker 3: argument to be made that there's a lot more to

326
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Speaker 3: this Brentford team than their numbers show right now, and

327
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Speaker 3: Spurs almost the opposite. I do expect Tottenham to trend

328
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Speaker 3: up as the season goes on, but out of the

329
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Speaker 3: Gates it just hasn't. It's been impressive at times, and

330
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Speaker 3: most of that has just most of the their best

331
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Speaker 3: moments have come in one half against Leicester in which

332
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Speaker 3: they couldn't put a stranglehold on the match and then

333
00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:59,080
Speaker 3: the absolute shall acking they put on Evert and they

334
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Speaker 3: played Newcastle pretty well, they played Arisenal pretty well, but

335
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Speaker 3: they come out on the wrong end of both those performances.

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Speaker 1: So I think we're kind of just.

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Speaker 3: Looking at right now at least Brentford being maybe the

338
00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:15,600
Speaker 3: eighth or ninth best team in the Premier League and

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Speaker 3: Spurs being like fifth sixth best team in the Premier

340
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Speaker 3: League as we stand right now.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and if that's.

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Speaker 1: The case, this number is just too wide, of.

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Speaker 2: Course, I agree. Yeah, So Tottenham, now that's two straight

344
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Speaker 2: weeks that they have played a team that has sat

345
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Speaker 2: deep on them in a compact structure. You know, Newcastle

346
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Speaker 2: for a majority of the match didn't really press them.

347
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Speaker 4: They kind of just sat in the four or five

348
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Speaker 4: to one.

349
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Speaker 2: Arsenal obviously sat in their low defensive structure. So that's

350
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Speaker 2: thirty five shots taken and only one point nine expected

351
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Speaker 2: goals created. That is incredibly inefficient. And here's I think

352
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Speaker 2: here's the main problem with Tottenham right now is they

353
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Speaker 2: don't have that can beat you in one v one scenarios.

354
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Speaker 2: So teams are never going to double guys out wide.

355
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Speaker 2: They can have an extra man closer to the middle

356
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Speaker 2: of the pitch. That means that Tottenham can't overload you

357
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Speaker 2: in the middle, and even if they do try to

358
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Speaker 2: overload you in the middle, it's just so freaking compact there,

359
00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:18,240
Speaker 2: and just it's so congested that you just can't play

360
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:19,000
Speaker 2: a ball through there.

361
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Speaker 4: You know, James.

362
00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:23,280
Speaker 2: Madison keeps trying to drop into the back line or

363
00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:25,560
Speaker 2: move out wide to try and pull the defender with them,

364
00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:27,399
Speaker 2: but they're just not they're not taking the bait and

365
00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:31,160
Speaker 2: they're just letting them receive the ball. And so since

366
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Speaker 2: Tottenham doesn't have wingers that can beat you in one

367
00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:40,160
Speaker 2: v ones, they're just kind of stuck right now, which

368
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:42,640
Speaker 2: you know, facing a team like Brentford who can sit

369
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Speaker 2: deep with the best of them, and really the way

370
00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:47,560
Speaker 2: that you beat Brentford is beating him in one v

371
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:49,840
Speaker 2: one the area is out wide because their fullbacks are weak.

372
00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:55,760
Speaker 2: That's a very very difficult situation. The other thing is,

373
00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:58,520
Speaker 2: you know, Brentford hammerd City for like the first twenty

374
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Speaker 2: five minutes and they they actually came out and pressed them.

375
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:05,119
Speaker 2: And the problem that Tottenham has had this season with

376
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,159
Speaker 2: their build up is not only just the fact that

377
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,360
Speaker 2: they're trying to overload the middle and they can't really

378
00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:13,160
Speaker 2: get through there is that, especially against Newcastle, the space

379
00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:16,679
Speaker 2: between where their center backs are receiving the ball and

380
00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:21,160
Speaker 2: the next line of three is far too wide. So

381
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:25,240
Speaker 2: if the ball goes backwards, that usually initiates a pressing trigger,

382
00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:28,560
Speaker 2: which is usually what Brentford does as well. And the

383
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:30,600
Speaker 2: space is too big and you can't pass the ball

384
00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:32,560
Speaker 2: when you're getting pressed like that, so the ball ends

385
00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:35,320
Speaker 2: up going backwards and teams can set up in their

386
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:37,760
Speaker 2: press and they can cause a lot of problems for Tottenham.

387
00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,480
Speaker 2: So and Brentford did that against City and they actually

388
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:43,440
Speaker 2: were pretty effective with it for most of the match.

389
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Speaker 2: But the final thing, Michael, Well, two final things. Number

390
00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:52,679
Speaker 2: one set pieces. I mean, Brentford's always the best on

391
00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 2: set pieces. Tottham conceded a goal off a set piece

392
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Speaker 2: again against Arsenal, so Brentford will obviously have advantages there.

393
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Speaker 2: And I'll leave this stat with you as well. Last

394
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Speaker 2: season there were four teams that had a positive expected

395
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,159
Speaker 2: gold differential on the road in the Premier League. It

396
00:20:08,280 --> 00:20:13,280
Speaker 2: was Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Brentford. So I like

397
00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:15,720
Speaker 2: the Bees plus one plus one five and I'll be

398
00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:16,760
Speaker 2: on their money line as well.

399
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 3: That brings us to Fulham and Newcastle at Craven Cottage

400
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:24,800
Speaker 3: fullam plus one ninety at home Newcastle traveling at plus

401
00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:27,959
Speaker 3: one forty the draws plus two fifty. I said this

402
00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:30,640
Speaker 3: before the last Newcastle match. It does once again feels

403
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:35,080
Speaker 3: a little trappy. I know Fulham is been pretty confident

404
00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:37,639
Speaker 3: as well. I'll win two draws and a loss through

405
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:42,800
Speaker 3: four matches and a gold differential of even with four

406
00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:46,200
Speaker 3: to four and four against their expected goals numbers show

407
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:49,359
Speaker 3: that that's actually they should be a little bit better.

408
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:55,000
Speaker 3: Their schedule though, has been pretty easy in my mind.

409
00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:59,040
Speaker 3: They lose to Manchester United in the opener, it's fine

410
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:04,120
Speaker 3: one nothing lost to take care of lester. You'd expect

411
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:07,240
Speaker 3: them to do that, especially at home draw with Ipswich

412
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:09,240
Speaker 3: on the road and then a draw with a west

413
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:11,080
Speaker 3: Ham team that neither one of us are high on.

414
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 3: They did outplay west Ham in that game right as

415
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:15,920
Speaker 3: we just said, like their offensive numbers were really good,

416
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:20,080
Speaker 3: but that west Ham defense has a lot of questions

417
00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 3: to be asked about it. So I don't know if

418
00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:28,119
Speaker 3: we we know if this falling team's maybe been a

419
00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:30,479
Speaker 3: little bit flattered by the start they've been offered by

420
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:35,359
Speaker 3: the schedule makers. Meanwhile, Newcastle just they're good. They're just

421
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 3: really good. Yeah, they beat Wolves and they played four

422
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 3: matches and I think all four matches have been pretty tight.

423
00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:45,120
Speaker 3: The southampt did one because they were down to ten men.

424
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 3: They win one nil in a weird, weird one. The

425
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:52,680
Speaker 3: Bourne Myth match. You can definitely argue Newcastle was second

426
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,680
Speaker 3: best for a large part of that match. But they

427
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:57,800
Speaker 3: get to one one draw, They defeat Tottenham to one

428
00:21:57,960 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 3: and what was a coin flip and then they go

429
00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:03,120
Speaker 3: on the rode to Wolves in a game we all

430
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,439
Speaker 3: liked last weekend or a game you and I liked

431
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 3: last weekend, and took care of business into two one defeat.

432
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 3: Once again, the game was in the balance, but they

433
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 3: were the ones who would come out ahead. I just

434
00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 3: think they're navigating some pretty choppy waters really well right now,

435
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 3: and the market is a little low on them just

436
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:21,640
Speaker 3: based on what we've seen from their performances. I think

437
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:23,679
Speaker 3: there's a pretty big gulf between these two teams that

438
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:28,960
Speaker 3: Newcastle does deserve to be away favorite, and I like

439
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,600
Speaker 3: the price on them, even with the status of Alexander

440
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 3: is Shack being a little Markie.

441
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:37,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it really depends on me. For me,

442
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 2: if e Shak is available, it's an eye injury, I believe.

443
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 2: And it says he's fifty to fifty right now and

444
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 2: the only reason that I say that is honestly he's great.

445
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 2: But Callen Wilson is also out too, So if that's

446
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 2: the case, then Newcastle doesn't really have another true striker.

447
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 2: But yeah, I agree the price is a little short

448
00:22:57,560 --> 00:22:59,439
Speaker 2: here if e Shak is gonna play, which you know,

449
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 2: and an eye injury, you know, it's not as bad

450
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:08,159
Speaker 2: as knee injury. The thing that's kind of scaring me

451
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 2: off here and you say the word trappy, it's that,

452
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:16,240
Speaker 2: you know Fulham is these are two of the most

453
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:19,359
Speaker 2: drastic home road splits teams in the Premier League. You know,

454
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,920
Speaker 2: you know Fulham last season was about even expected gold

455
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 2: differential home. They were minus twelve away from Craven Cottage,

456
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,760
Speaker 2: whereas Newcastle had a negative expected gold differential away from

457
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 2: Saint James Park. You know, Newcastle has overperformed a little

458
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 2: bit to begin the season. I think the question mark

459
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:40,480
Speaker 2: is so in the meeting last year, Newcastle won this

460
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 2: match one nothing and it was about it was a

461
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 2: pretty even match, but Fulham actually controlled sixty six percent

462
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 2: of the possession. If that is the case and Newcastle

463
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 2: is able to hit them in transition, where again, Fulham

464
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 2: without Paulinia is still very, very vulnerable through the middle.

465
00:23:57,160 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 2: If you go back to the Ipswich match from two

466
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 2: weeks ago, well, the goal, the only the best chance

467
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 2: and the only goal the Ifs which scored because they

468
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 2: just dribbled right through the middle and nobody picked up

469
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 2: the ball and they just then they were able to

470
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:09,920
Speaker 2: get one, you know, on the back of the net.

471
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 2: But if Fulham's able to control the ball here and

472
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:17,880
Speaker 2: the Newcastle is able to play break in transition, that's

473
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 2: a good matchup for them. Fabian shar being back obviously

474
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 2: makes a huge difference for them defensively. So I projected

475
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 2: Newcastle closer to even money. Like you said, I think

476
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,199
Speaker 2: there's a pretty significant gap between these two teams. But

477
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:33,159
Speaker 2: if you're looking for you know, for me, I need

478
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 2: I'm gonna wait until match time. I'm gonna wait and

479
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:38,520
Speaker 2: see if the shak if e shak is starting, I'm

480
00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 2: gonna play. I'm gonna play Newcastle. But the price keeps

481
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 2: getting bigger here and the market still even you know,

482
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:48,119
Speaker 2: after they beat Wolves. Although it wasn't that, you know,

483
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 2: impressive a performance, the market still continues. I believe to

484
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 2: undervalue this Newcastle team, so I think there's still value.

485
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:59,959
Speaker 3: On them, okay, And that brings us to Marquee matchup

486
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 3: between Lester and Everdon. Not only are Everdon at the

487
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:06,400
Speaker 3: foot of the Premier League table right now, but if

488
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 3: you took all of Europe's Big five and put them

489
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 3: all into one table, they would be at the foot

490
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 3: of that as well with their record and goal difference.

491
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 3: So go down the Toffees, who lost in a shootout

492
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:23,160
Speaker 3: to Southampton and the EFL Cup over the midweek. Now

493
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 3: they travel to Leicester as a plus one seventy five underdog,

494
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 3: lesser a slight favorite plus one fifty on the three

495
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:32,359
Speaker 3: way line, the draw is plus two forty. Like we

496
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 3: like Evert in here, I'm yeah, we don't really need

497
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 3: to get too deep into it.

498
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:40,360
Speaker 1: It's no I will say I feel really good about it.

499
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 2: I do too, And I'm gonna tell you, yeah, I'm

500
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,679
Speaker 2: gonna read something off to you, Michael. And this is

501
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 2: not meant to be a negative Everton stat. It's more

502
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 2: to just maybe we got some new listeners here that

503
00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:55,640
Speaker 2: are like, hey, why do these guys just keep adding

504
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 2: Everton and they just keep losing? What's the point of

505
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 2: all this? Right, Oh buddy has been more unlucky than

506
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,639
Speaker 2: Everton dating back to last season. From the start of

507
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:07,200
Speaker 2: the twenty twenty three to twenty four season till now,

508
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 2: Everton has scored forty four goals, but they have created

509
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:14,120
Speaker 2: sixty four point five expected goals at is historical level

510
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:18,119
Speaker 2: of underperformance. And the goals are going to come, and

511
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:21,840
Speaker 2: they're going to come eventually. And what's not fair, Michael

512
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:26,679
Speaker 2: is you know that last season Everton's defense overperformed by

513
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:32,199
Speaker 2: about eight or nine goals or so, and now they've underperformed.

514
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 2: To begin this season, they've allowed thirteen goals off of

515
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 2: eight expected. All could be boiled down to Pickford just

516
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 2: being terrible. He's got a minus three point two post

517
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 2: shot actually plus minus. He's never been blowed two and

518
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 2: a half for a full season, so he's not going

519
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 2: to continue to be as bad. So the biggest and

520
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,360
Speaker 2: really the only handicap with this match.

521
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 4: Is set pieces.

522
00:26:56,920 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 2: That's how Everton creates all their chances. Honestly, Ester has

523
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:08,399
Speaker 2: conceded six well, five point seven non penalty expected goals,

524
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:11,399
Speaker 2: two point two of them have been off of set pieces.

525
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 2: That's really the only thing you need to know for

526
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:19,200
Speaker 2: this match. So I like Everton, John O Bett, even money,

527
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 2: money line, whatever you want to play them. I think

528
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 2: this is about as good as a matchup as you

529
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:27,119
Speaker 2: can ask for, and they really shouldn't be an underdog

530
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 2: on the road against this Lester team.

531
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 4: That has shown they are.

532
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,120
Speaker 2: I mean, even if you watch, they got hammered against

533
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:36,960
Speaker 2: Crystal Palace. I mean Varredy scored on a miscommunication between

534
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:39,439
Speaker 2: Henderson and Gayhee and then there was a pinball in

535
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 2: the box that deflected right to them and they scored.

536
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 2: Other than that, they did nothing against the Palace. So yeah,

537
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 2: who we like Everton again?

538
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 1: Whoop bee? Yeah, back on Everton.

539
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 2: This is the one though, yeah.

540
00:27:55,600 --> 00:28:01,160
Speaker 3: Uh Aston Villain Wolves next. Villa traveling back for Champions League.

541
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 3: In the midweek win over Young Boys. They might's won

542
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:07,200
Speaker 3: seventy to welcome Wolves as a plus four forty underdog

543
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 3: draw is plus three thirty for this one. I'm tempted

544
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 3: by Wolves here and part of it is a spot

545
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 3: three games in a week for Villa, one being in Europe.

546
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 3: The other, of course being pretty emotional win against Everden.

547
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:33,920
Speaker 3: They can absolutely overwhelm Wolves here if things go their way.

548
00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 3: Much more talented team. Wolves have not covered themselves in

549
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 3: all that much glory to start with the zero wins,

550
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 3: a draw and three losses from their first four. That said,

551
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 3: another team that's played a really difficult schedule to start

552
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 3: Arsenal Chelsea, good forced team that they drew away and

553
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 3: then Newcastle, And if you look at the underlying metrics

554
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 3: for those matches, the Chelsea game is hard to make

555
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 3: a case for them because they did lose six to two,

556
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 3: but the expected goals were a little wonky there. Of course,

557
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 3: as I said earlier Newcastle that that game was in

558
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 3: the balance in terms of the underlying numbers. The draw

559
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 3: against noting a Force makes them look looks a lot

560
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 3: better now that knowing that Force is.

561
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 1: Been off to a really good start. And like we

562
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 1: trust Gary.

563
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 3: O'Neil just as a manager generally, and this these were

564
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 3: the these were the kind of situations where Wolves really

565
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 3: made Hay last year. So I think the number is

566
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 3: big enough to be interested in Wolves. So yeah, I

567
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 3: think I'm gonna be on on them in the situation. Plus,

568
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:45,480
Speaker 3: like we did just watch this Villa team really struggled

569
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 3: again to contain everting so that that mats should have

570
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 3: been iced, right.

571
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 4: So yep, it should have been iced.

572
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 2: And the thing about it is is, you know, I mean,

573
00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 2: if you have if you have attackers that can play

574
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:01,640
Speaker 2: off the back line of Villa's high line, you can

575
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 2: cause them problems. And Wolves definitely has that with Hwang

576
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 2: and Kunya, like, they can definitely cause Aston Villa problems.

577
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 2: So maybe any time goalscorer for one of those two

578
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 2: guys might be kind of interesting. This is a Midlands derby,

579
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 2: so it will be very hotly contested. It's funny how

580
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 2: this game works, Michael. And then you're right, it's it's

581
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 2: all the Chelsea match.

582
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 4: But Wolves was.

583
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 2: On the spectrum of overperforming defensively last season to like

584
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 2: almost do an extreme amount, and this season now they've

585
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 2: underperformed more than any other team eleven goals allowed off

586
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 2: of five and a half expected.

587
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 4: Again, pretty much all.

588
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 2: Chelsea match, every other match is been kind of close

589
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 2: to what their underlying numbers are. They did they did

590
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 2: lose at Aston Villa towards the end of last season

591
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 2: to nothing, but it actually was kind of an even match.

592
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 2: So yeah, I if anything, I would maybe look at

593
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 2: some Coonia or Hwang if they start anytime goalscorer props

594
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 2: because I think aston Villa's defense, even if you watch

595
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 2: them against young boys, any team that can play in

596
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:13,760
Speaker 2: transition is always going to be live to score against

597
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 2: aston Villa. So for me it's pass. But yeah, maybe

598
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:20,720
Speaker 2: some Mandy time goal scorers between Kuny and Hwang.

599
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 3: Okay, I've got no interest in the next one. Southampton

600
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 3: and Ipswich in a relegation.

601
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 4: Is the important one.

602
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 1: Important one.

603
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's very important for these two teams. By the way, Hampton,

604
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 2: I want to say something about Southampton.

605
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 1: Yes, go for it as.

606
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:39,200
Speaker 2: A recruitment strategy for you know, future teams coming up

607
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 2: to the Premier League. Buying both of Sheffield's United strikers

608
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 2: is maybe not the best strategy if you want to

609
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 2: score goals. And I will say this as well. We'll

610
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 2: get to United in a little bit. They kind of

611
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 2: hammered United for the first thirty minutes and if that

612
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 2: penalty went in the back of the net probably it

613
00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 2: would have been a lot of a much different game.

614
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 2: But you know, of course they lose through nothing, and

615
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 2: Russell Martin's a loser and his strategy sucks and all

616
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 2: this stuff. But it's just funny how it results to

617
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 2: do that. But if hey, if Southampton's build up was

618
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 2: ever gonna work, right, so.

619
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 3: Match they're plus one twenty five, I switch plus two

620
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 3: ten to draws plus two forty.

621
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'll say I'm passing.

622
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 4: It kind of.

623
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:20,320
Speaker 2: I'm getting closer closer to playing. I mean, I'm not

624
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 2: gonna play Southampton, but like I have them at minus

625
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 2: one ten in this match. They had better underlying numbers

626
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:30,719
Speaker 2: than Nipswich last season if Switch's press has been got awful.

627
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 2: So if you're ever looking for a spot to buy

628
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 2: Southampton befo, we're getting to plus one thirty plus one

629
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 2: thirty five at home and you're telling me that Ipswich

630
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 2: is a better team on a neutral field. I don't

631
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 2: agree with that. So I might play Southampton, but I'd

632
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 2: like a drawing. I'd like the assurance of drawn o

633
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 2: bad because I don't think they can really do it

634
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 2: much an attack, So that's the way I'd be looking

635
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 2: at it. But that number on Southampton's getting maybe a

636
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 2: little more and more enticing.

637
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,479
Speaker 1: Okay, to talk about in the Premier League. You alluded

638
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 1: to it.

639
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 3: Man United is traveling to sell Hurst Park as a

640
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 3: plus one forty five favorite, the Jaws plus two sixty

641
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 3: and Crystal Palace is at plus one seventy five. I

642
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 3: think this is fine for Pallas here, Like this is

643
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 3: just we kind of know what United is, I think,

644
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 3: which is funny to say, because there's such a their

645
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 3: team that makes their supporters pull their hair out quite

646
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 3: a bit and everyone is just baffled by them. But

647
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 3: I think that's who they are, Like they're just a

648
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,640
Speaker 3: team that's going to trade wins and losses throughout this

649
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 3: entire season. Maybe they put a few good performances together

650
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:45,959
Speaker 3: and win on a bunch on the bounce, but maybe

651
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 3: they'll they'll also do the same and lose. So I

652
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 3: think what we've already seen for Man United is kind

653
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 3: of what we'll see for the rest of the year.

654
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:57,920
Speaker 3: Wins against Fulham and Southampton, sure losses on the road,

655
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 3: loss on the road to Brighton and then lost to

656
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 3: Liverpool three nail. They can absolutely get a hiding here

657
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 3: from from Crystal Palace.

658
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 1: So I think even at.

659
00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:11,239
Speaker 3: Plus one seventy five, Palace is worth a play at

660
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 3: home here twelve thirty kickoff.

661
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 2: You know, I think you know, Michael, two years ago,

662
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:18,400
Speaker 2: we would have got Palace at like plus two fifty

663
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 2: in the spot.

664
00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 4: Like the market is just kind.

665
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:26,000
Speaker 2: Of they've not completely figured out United, like I think

666
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 2: they're They're slowly coming more and more down on them,

667
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 2: to the point now where like, for example, I have

668
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:34,360
Speaker 2: this line, I have this line essentially flipped from a

669
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 2: projection standpoint, I have Palace closer plus one forty five

670
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 2: and United as the plus one seventy five. So naturally

671
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 2: there's a little bit of value on Palace for me

672
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:45,479
Speaker 2: on the drawn no bet and even on the money

673
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:48,360
Speaker 2: line if you want to play that as well. Ugarte

674
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:51,360
Speaker 2: should be in the midfield for United. He started against

675
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 2: Barnsley in the EFL Cup alongside Casamiro. Is he gonna

676
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 2: be someone that's just going to completely save United's midfield.

677
00:34:58,520 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 4: I don't think.

678
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:02,319
Speaker 2: So. It's go be better, There's no doubt about that now.

679
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 2: But thinking that United's midfield's now going to go to

680
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,319
Speaker 2: like the level of like City or Arsenal, I mean,

681
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 2: that's just incredibly naive. He's a really really good ball stopper,

682
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:16,359
Speaker 2: but he's not the greatest guy in terms of if

683
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:18,720
Speaker 2: you want to build out of the back. He also

684
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 2: is way too aggressive and way too risky, and that's

685
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 2: the reason why he fell out of Luis Enrique's team,

686
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:28,879
Speaker 2: is because he kept pressing too aggressively, pulling himself out

687
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:32,439
Speaker 2: of position and leaving PSG incredibly vulnerable in the middle

688
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:33,760
Speaker 2: of the pitch. But I you look at his metrics,

689
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:38,239
Speaker 2: I mean I think he was ninetieth plus percentile and

690
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 2: tackles per ninety, so he's a very good midfielder. But

691
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:45,919
Speaker 2: Palace did hammer United towards the end of last season

692
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:48,360
Speaker 2: at Seller's Park. Now, I will say take that with

693
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 2: a grain of salt, because they had to start Johnny

694
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 2: Evans and Casamiro as a center back pairing. But Palace

695
00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 2: did win for nothing and completely hammer them. It'll be

696
00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:58,239
Speaker 2: interesting to see if ten Hog decides to play more

697
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:00,880
Speaker 2: of a mid block or a press I think stop

698
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 2: Palaces build up is still really, really good. Again, like

699
00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:06,280
Speaker 2: I mentioned from the Lesterer match, they dominated that match

700
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 2: and just didn't get the result they serve. So you know,

701
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 2: it's got a better center back pairing obviously in this

702
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 2: match than they did in the previous one. But yeah,

703
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 2: from just a simple projection standpoint, I think.

704
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 4: There's a little bit of value here on palace.

705
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:19,239
Speaker 2: I'm gonna wait, though, and see if we can get

706
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:21,160
Speaker 2: a better number on palace. I think as we get

707
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:24,319
Speaker 2: closer match time, if Fuguartes in the lineup, I think

708
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 2: there's a potential that United could get steamed here and

709
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 2: you can get a better number one palace. So I'm

710
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 2: gonna wait closer to match time. But yeah, I do

711
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 2: like a palace as well.

712
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 3: And finally, Brighton and Nottingham Forest. Brighton sitting at minus

713
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 3: one thirty five, Forests plus three seventy the draws plus

714
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 3: two eighty I like Forrest here.

715
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 1: I'm gonna do it again.

716
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 3: I'm gonna back them to do it again and pull

717
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 3: it upset on the road against a team that most

718
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:53,839
Speaker 3: people would think was a couple of tiers ahead of them,

719
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:56,239
Speaker 3: a couple just a couple of weeks ago. But what

720
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 3: Forest is doing is really impressive because they're just going

721
00:36:59,200 --> 00:37:03,800
Speaker 3: in into every game against teams like Brighton or Liverpool

722
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:07,719
Speaker 3: and just trying to shut things down and get these

723
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 3: games on their tempo. And it's working pretty well. Obviously,

724
00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:13,880
Speaker 3: a draw against a really good boorn Mith team to

725
00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 3: open the season. They beat Southampton and the score line

726
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 3: was only one nil, but the underlying number shows that

727
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:22,960
Speaker 3: should have been a little more. I think they were

728
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:25,320
Speaker 3: a little unlucky in a one one draw against Wolves,

729
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:28,719
Speaker 3: and then of course the upset against Liverpool and which

730
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:31,880
Speaker 3: was just a new No master class. So this is

731
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 3: a team that's just not giving much up and I

732
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:38,320
Speaker 3: can I think if you are able to just infiltrate

733
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,759
Speaker 3: this team like Brighton's system and throw a wrench into it,

734
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 3: you have every chance of upsetting them, even even on

735
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:49,400
Speaker 3: the road. So I like the price here on Forrest

736
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 3: to get ahead and pull the upset against new Excuse me,

737
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 3: he gets brightened.

738
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 2: I agree, And I think what was concerning from a

739
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 2: Brighton standpoint against Ipswich is they had a scenario, it

740
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:07,719
Speaker 2: was almost like a pinball scenario where Merch stood on

741
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:10,920
Speaker 2: his head the ip switch keeper in thirty sixth minute,

742
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 2: and that's basically where Brighton created all their chances. Because

743
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 2: after the thirty sixth minute they took sixteen shots, only

744
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:21,879
Speaker 2: one of them had an XG rating over point one,

745
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,399
Speaker 2: essentially meaning only I like one shot that had over

746
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:27,439
Speaker 2: a ten percent chance of going in. That is really

747
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 2: really concerning because if you go back to last season,

748
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 2: this specific match, which was towards the end of the

749
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:34,760
Speaker 2: season and knew no was in charge of Nottingham Forest,

750
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:37,920
Speaker 2: was the lowest event match of the Premier League season.

751
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 2: Only one point one expected goals were created. Brighton got

752
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 2: an own goal and then from there just didn't do anything.

753
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 2: They created point four expected goals against Nottingham Forest.

754
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:49,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know.

755
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 2: I The thing is, Michael, I think the market came

756
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:54,680
Speaker 2: in a little too down on Nottingham Forest coming into

757
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 2: the season, and now we're seeing it start to trend,

758
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 2: like very very slowly more towards where they should be priced.

759
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 2: But we're not there yet. I mean Brighton minus one

760
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:08,480
Speaker 2: thirty four for two teams that I think you could

761
00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:12,239
Speaker 2: even make an argument are even honestly, like from a

762
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:16,239
Speaker 2: power ratings perspective, if not Brighton's just maybe ever so

763
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:21,840
Speaker 2: slightly better than Nottingham Forest. I think this is a

764
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:23,959
Speaker 2: good spot here for Nottingham Forest. I mean, Brighton's gonna

765
00:39:24,000 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 2: use a ton of different build ups. They will probably

766
00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 2: go with a single pivot against Nottingham Forrest's four defensive block.

767
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:36,919
Speaker 2: But put it this way, if Liverpool found difficulties playing

768
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 2: through the middle. What do you think Brighton's gonna do

769
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 2: with Danny wellback up top? So I agree, I like

770
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 2: Forest plus a half at plus one ten.

771
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:48,200
Speaker 3: Okay, that's a I think I gonna end up being

772
00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:51,440
Speaker 3: one of our most bet Premier League slates of the

773
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 3: entire year, in a nice diversity of punts, starting with

774
00:39:58,760 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 3: the nil nil at the top of the show in

775
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 3: Arsenal City. And if your favorites beyonderdogs, so anytimes score props.

776
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:09,080
Speaker 3: So hopefully it goes well. Now let's move to Europe

777
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 3: where you.

778
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 1: Have a few picks.

779
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 3: We guess skip the championship with Sam on vacation. But

780
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:15,760
Speaker 3: what do you got on the continent?

781
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, so let's go Germany.

782
00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 2: Bochum even money against Holstein Kiel. This Holstein Keel team

783
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:28,879
Speaker 2: is uncompetitive. To put it lightly, I mean they were

784
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:33,720
Speaker 2: down three to nothing inside thirteen minutes against Byron this weekend.

785
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 2: It was they are shambalic defensively, I'll say it again,

786
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:42,320
Speaker 2: they had horrible underlying metrics coming in from the second Division.

787
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:46,080
Speaker 2: Now this is a good Bilo spot on Bochum, who

788
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 2: has been terrible ass They've lost their first first three matches.

789
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 2: But what I will say about Bochum, especially last season

790
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 2: in the Bundesliga is they had extreme home road split

791
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:03,279
Speaker 2: where they had one of the worst expected gold differentials

792
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:07,319
Speaker 2: on the road, but they were actually very competitive at home.

793
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 2: They actually had a positive expected gold differential at home,

794
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:13,279
Speaker 2: so good spot I think for them to a good

795
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 2: Bilo spot them for them and even money against the

796
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:17,279
Speaker 2: holes stein Kill team that I think the market just

797
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:20,560
Speaker 2: hasn't They haven't priced them correctly and I think it's

798
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:23,520
Speaker 2: going to take some time to get there. Juventus in

799
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 2: Syria a plus one fifteen against Napoli. Very impressive performance

800
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 2: from Juventus against PSV to open their Champions League Thiaga

801
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:34,160
Speaker 2: Matta's build up system worked really really well, very solid

802
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:39,120
Speaker 2: defensive team Napoli without Oshman. I mean, Napoli's played nobody

803
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:43,280
Speaker 2: so far, so this is their first big test under Conte,

804
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 2: and I'm not quite sure that the market is really

805
00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 2: priced in the effect of Oceman leaving. So I like

806
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:55,600
Speaker 2: Juventus plus one fifteen. And then finally in La Liga,

807
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:59,719
Speaker 2: a fun one fiery al Barcelona over three and a half.

808
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:02,360
Speaker 2: Not a spot for Barcelona. I mentioned the Cunner Champions

809
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:06,840
Speaker 2: League podcast will be their third straight away match. But

810
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 2: if you know anything about Barcelona right now, they are

811
00:42:10,480 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 2: playing all of the kids because they're in a financial

812
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 2: situation where they can't really spend money on players. So

813
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 2: but these kids are incredible. They just keep coming in

814
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:21,440
Speaker 2: sixteen seventeen years old and they look like they've been

815
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:25,359
Speaker 2: playing in the squad for twenty years. Virial has been

816
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:29,480
Speaker 2: horrific defensively. They were the worst defensive team in La

817
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:32,560
Speaker 2: Liga last season. Again, I'll say it with these Hansei

818
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 2: Flick totals, I think they're way way too low with

819
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 2: how aggressive Barcelona is, not only in possession, with how

820
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:42,359
Speaker 2: high level line they play, how far up the pitch

821
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 2: they send their fullbacks to where it creates a very

822
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:48,440
Speaker 2: high event type match. So I projected four point one

823
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 2: goals for this match, so I like over three and

824
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 2: a half at plus one O five.

825
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:57,800
Speaker 3: Okay, brings us to our underdog three Like underdog parlay

826
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:02,440
Speaker 3: with sam Out, we kind of put our heads together

827
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 3: to find a third leg here to make sure we

828
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 3: got one, and it's going to come out to one

829
00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 3: hundred and twenty two to one.

830
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:10,120
Speaker 2: And I feel the best about this one that I

831
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:13,800
Speaker 2: have so far anyone this season, I would agree for anything.

832
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 3: But yeah, and I mean they're all they're all kind

833
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 3: of in a fun sweet spot between you know, like

834
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 3: three and four to one or three and five to one,

835
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 3: I should say.

836
00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 2: So.

837
00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:30,399
Speaker 3: We gave Sam Forrest at plus three seventy. Like we said,

838
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 3: we like their chances to at least frustrate Brighten enough

839
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 3: to put this game on fifty to fifty terms or

840
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 3: close to it. And that's what you're looking for for

841
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:40,680
Speaker 3: an underdog, especially on the road. Obviously they should be

842
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 3: pretty buoyant after the performance at Anfield last weekend.

843
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:46,600
Speaker 1: Who do you have for your favorite underdog?

844
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 2: Well, it's probably the only time I'm going to get

845
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,839
Speaker 2: to do this all season. But Arsenal plus three point

846
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 2: fifty at Manchester City. These two teams, from underlying numbers perspective,

847
00:43:57,200 --> 00:43:59,680
Speaker 2: was basically even last year both matches they faced off

848
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 2: against each other. It was an incredibly even match, although

849
00:44:02,239 --> 00:44:05,279
Speaker 2: it was incredibly low scoring. When you have such a

850
00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:08,240
Speaker 2: low event type match like that and really even matches,

851
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 2: why wouldn't you take the plus three fifty underdog to

852
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:13,840
Speaker 2: potentially pull off the upset? I mean Arsenal can I

853
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:15,960
Speaker 2: mean they obviously have the players in transition to be

854
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 2: able to hurt Manchester City. They're one of the best

855
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:20,920
Speaker 2: set piece teams and they're gonna be able to keep

856
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:22,560
Speaker 2: City out. They're gonna be able to deny space to

857
00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:24,880
Speaker 2: the middle, and they're gonna be able to neutralize Holland.

858
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:28,160
Speaker 2: So I mean Arsenal plus three fifty, I mean you're

859
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:29,600
Speaker 2: never gonna see this price again for the rest of

860
00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:32,440
Speaker 2: the season on Arsenal most likely. So give me my

861
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:33,600
Speaker 2: gunners plus three fifty.

862
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:36,399
Speaker 1: Yep. I think that's another good one.

863
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:38,320
Speaker 3: And obviously, if we think that this game has a

864
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:40,239
Speaker 3: decent not a decent chance, but is a good bet

865
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 3: to be neil nil or like one nil, the march

866
00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:46,719
Speaker 3: is gonna be very thin, so Arsenal. And then let's

867
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:51,040
Speaker 3: round it out with Brentford, it gets Tottenham. Brentford team

868
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:55,240
Speaker 3: has trudged do a pretty difficult opening four game slate

869
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 3: to start the season with two wins and two losses,

870
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 3: six goals four six against And when you look at

871
00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 3: who these performances have come against, like a really decent,

872
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:08,359
Speaker 3: a decent showing in a two one loss against City,

873
00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 3: they were okay against Liverpool and their two nil loss

874
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:13,640
Speaker 3: but then they beat Crystal Palace, they beat Southampton and

875
00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:16,320
Speaker 3: that's just who they are. I think that this is

876
00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:19,520
Speaker 3: a team that is likely maybe the eighth, ninth, tenth

877
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:21,799
Speaker 3: best team in the Premier League, and right now I

878
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:25,440
Speaker 3: think it's closer to eighth than anything. And Spurs are

879
00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:27,480
Speaker 3: you know, in that fifth to sixth range in my

880
00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 3: mind right now. So the gap between these two teams

881
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:33,800
Speaker 3: just isn't all that wide. I like Brentford here at

882
00:45:34,360 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 3: plus four eighty, so that gives us a three leg

883
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:39,879
Speaker 3: parlay that spits out to one hundred and twenty two

884
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:43,759
Speaker 3: to one, So join us on that one should be

885
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:45,160
Speaker 3: a fun, fun sweat.

886
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:48,200
Speaker 1: And look, there's no evidence in there that's true.

887
00:45:48,360 --> 00:45:48,760
Speaker 4: We couldn't.

888
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:50,839
Speaker 2: That's nice and the markets haven't gotten them to two

889
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:52,360
Speaker 2: to one yet, so if it.

890
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:55,319
Speaker 3: Would have been in there, yeah, And I also think

891
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 3: that this is probably the first three leg parlay we've

892
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 3: done this Sea in off the top of my mind

893
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 3: at least where all three teams are are good. Yeah,

894
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:07,840
Speaker 3: at least at the time of you know, putting the

895
00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 3: part lay together. They are the second best team in

896
00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:14,520
Speaker 3: the league. And I think Brentford and Forrest right now

897
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 3: you can make a good argument our top ten.

898
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:18,760
Speaker 1: At this very moment, so for sure.

899
00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:23,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, that brings us to our favorite bets for match

900
00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:25,359
Speaker 3: week five in the Premier League.

901
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:27,600
Speaker 1: You can go first.

902
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:30,200
Speaker 2: I'll go Brentford plus one at plus one h five

903
00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:33,120
Speaker 2: against Tottenham. You know, there's a lot of top problems

904
00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:35,399
Speaker 2: with Tottenham's build up right now, but mainly the main

905
00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:38,120
Speaker 2: point of it is they're not generating high quality chances.

906
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:40,520
Speaker 2: The last two matches they have played teams that have

907
00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:43,440
Speaker 2: sat deep on them, they have taken thirty five shots

908
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 2: and created one point nine expected goals. That is incredibly inefficient.

909
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:48,920
Speaker 2: The main reason for that is because the middle of

910
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:51,800
Speaker 2: the pitch is too congested and they don't have wingers

911
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:54,560
Speaker 2: that can beat the opposing fullbacks in one B one situation,

912
00:46:54,719 --> 00:46:57,239
Speaker 2: so they're just kind of stuck trying to play the

913
00:46:57,280 --> 00:46:59,560
Speaker 2: ball through the middle, and Brentford is a team that

914
00:46:59,560 --> 00:47:01,799
Speaker 2: doesn't really good job at denying spaces in the middle.

915
00:47:01,840 --> 00:47:03,719
Speaker 2: Thomas Frank will come out miss five to three to two.

916
00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:06,319
Speaker 2: But also when Tottenham passed the ball backwards, that will

917
00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:09,200
Speaker 2: initiate a Brentford pressing trigger. And they showed against Manchester

918
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:11,799
Speaker 2: City that they can be very effective pressing in a

919
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:15,000
Speaker 2: Manda Man fashion. Brentford will also have a huge advantage

920
00:47:15,000 --> 00:47:17,359
Speaker 2: on set pieces so far the season their top five

921
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 2: and expected goals created off of them. They were second

922
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:23,880
Speaker 2: last season in that category, whereas Tottenham already conceded the

923
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:26,920
Speaker 2: third most expected goles this year or seventeenth and next

924
00:47:26,960 --> 00:47:29,799
Speaker 2: cheaper set piece last year. And finally, there were four

925
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 2: teams last season that had a positive expected goal differuncial

926
00:47:32,719 --> 00:47:37,000
Speaker 2: on the road. It was Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool and Brentford.

927
00:47:37,200 --> 00:47:39,319
Speaker 2: So I like the BS plus one a plus one

928
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:39,719
Speaker 2: oh five.

929
00:47:40,440 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 3: I like Newcastle plus one forty on the road at Fulham.

930
00:47:44,080 --> 00:47:47,240
Speaker 3: I just think this Newcastle team is still being underrated

931
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:49,200
Speaker 3: by the betting market. They're one of the better teams

932
00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:52,040
Speaker 3: in the Premier League. I think that they're going to

933
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:54,239
Speaker 3: be in and around that top four and maybe even

934
00:47:54,239 --> 00:47:57,359
Speaker 3: behind all season. They've had some stuff go against them

935
00:47:57,480 --> 00:47:59,000
Speaker 3: to start the year and they've still have been able

936
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:02,680
Speaker 3: to scratch out really respectable start. I know Fulham is

937
00:48:03,000 --> 00:48:05,960
Speaker 3: a tricky opponent, especially when you're playing at craving Cottage,

938
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:07,719
Speaker 3: but I think plus one forty on Newcastle is a

939
00:48:07,760 --> 00:48:09,320
Speaker 3: really good price and we're not going to be seeing

940
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:12,520
Speaker 3: many situations where Newcastle will get to this price for

941
00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:16,360
Speaker 3: the rest of the year. So Newcastle for me, Brentford

942
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:20,040
Speaker 3: for you. The underdog parlay was not na forced Brentford

943
00:48:20,040 --> 00:48:23,600
Speaker 3: and Arsenal. We have a lot of bets, hopefully you

944
00:48:23,680 --> 00:48:25,400
Speaker 3: job on them all down, you join us, and we

945
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:28,480
Speaker 3: will be back again next week for another episode of

946
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:33,040
Speaker 3: Wonder Goal when Sam returns, and then Champions League, et cetera.

947
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:34,879
Speaker 3: So best of luck everybody with all your bets. Thank

948
00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:37,799
Speaker 3: you for listening, Thank you to our producer Noah for

949
00:48:37,920 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 3: the hardware coming back end, and we'll talk to you soon.

950
00:48:49,000 --> 00:48:52,440
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

951
00:48:52,840 --> 00:48:55,720
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

952
00:48:55,960 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

953
00:48:58,680 --> 00:48:59,520
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