1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:07,119 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. 2 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:11,080 Speaker 2: I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrell and Lisa Abramowitz. 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:15,760 Speaker 2: Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, 4 00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 2: finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, 5 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 2: Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on 6 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. 7 00:00:30,560 --> 00:00:33,480 Speaker 3: Sarah Hunt with us now Chief market Strategist to Alpine 8 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:36,920 Speaker 3: Saxon Woods. Sarah, wonderful to see you. Let's start here. 9 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 3: Give us one good reason to buy gm Ford and 10 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 3: stillansis with this going on. 11 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:43,480 Speaker 4: I think that's a very difficult question. 12 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 5: I mean, you'll see that the stocks are only a 13 00:00:45,040 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 5: little bit lower in pre market. It really is going 14 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 5: to depend on how long this takes to work through. 15 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:50,559 Speaker 5: I think there's a lot of things that are on 16 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:52,880 Speaker 5: the table. I think job security is definitely part of 17 00:00:52,920 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 5: it for the union, and I think the real question 18 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 5: for those three is how you continue to be competitive 19 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:01,160 Speaker 5: globally when you've got these issues going on at home, 20 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 5: and you've got issues with higher oil prices, right because 21 00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 5: those cars are more expensive, not only to buy, but 22 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:07,840 Speaker 5: to fuel right now too. So I think that there 23 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 5: are a lot of problems right now in the auto sector, 24 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 5: and I think for those three in particular, this is 25 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:14,319 Speaker 5: not a great time for them to be facing this 26 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 5: sort of action. 27 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 2: The emotion here of a president today goes down to 28 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 2: the manufacturing multiplier yours in my ute, where it was 29 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 2: simple a manufacturing job was better than being a TV 30 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 2: anchor because it was more productive for America. Is there 31 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 2: a manufacturing multiplier still. 32 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 1: In this nation? 33 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 5: Well, I think there's definitely a manufacturing multiplier, and I 34 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 5: think that the targeted strikes are showing you exactly how 35 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 5: when you've changed the manufacturing to each plant does a 36 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 5: different thing and gets it to the ultimate end assembly 37 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 5: that I can strike anywhere, and I can have a 38 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 5: big effect on a giant network in a small way. 39 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 5: So there's definitely a problem there. And the question about manufacturing, 40 00:01:56,600 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 5: we're trying to reshore manufacturing right so this is part 41 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 5: of I think the big labor question of when I 42 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 5: reachhore manufacturing, what's going to happen to prices? And I 43 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 5: think globally we're setting ourselves up between energy situations and 44 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:12,520 Speaker 5: re bringing production back home to have just higher prices 45 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:14,440 Speaker 5: across the board. So I think that there's a longer, 46 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:16,799 Speaker 5: big tail here to some of these discussions that are 47 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:18,919 Speaker 5: not just about individual micro situations. 48 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 6: But AI is going to solve it all. It's going 49 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:23,040 Speaker 6: to create robots and all sorts of programs that can 50 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 6: just make all of the things that we need. I mean, 51 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 6: this is sort of the great hope to keep pricing down. 52 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 6: Why wouldn't you just head your bets and going to 53 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:32,960 Speaker 6: strong into energy, go strong ino tech, and forget the 54 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 6: rest of it. 55 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 5: Well, you know, we've been positive amount energy and that 56 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:38,280 Speaker 5: has not been the best thing to be all year. 57 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:39,919 Speaker 5: But I think it's finally starting to come around. And 58 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 5: it's actually coming around almost too quickly because oil prices 59 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:45,080 Speaker 5: have risen so quickly that it's almost an issue. But 60 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:48,079 Speaker 5: I think that that's part of the problem for the 61 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 5: general populace is that if I am going to do 62 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 5: this with robots, if AAI is going to save me 63 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 5: from a productivity standpoint, then what am I then? 64 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 4: How am I going to have job security? 65 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:57,600 Speaker 5: And I think that that's part of the tension that's 66 00:02:57,639 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 5: going on right now, especially with the automakers. 67 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 6: Elaborate on that why do you say almost too quickly. 68 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 5: Because it does have demand destruction issues. Right when oil 69 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 5: prices shoot up dramatically, you do start to see demand destruction. 70 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 5: And part of the reason the oil prices have gone 71 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 5: up is because the Saudias are taking oil off the market, 72 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:16,240 Speaker 5: and at a time when we've essentially depleted our spr 73 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 5: so there isn't a lot of backstop in terms of 74 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:21,640 Speaker 5: excess productivity I mean xx production of oil, and especially 75 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:24,080 Speaker 5: with the US, as John pointed out earlier, at record 76 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 5: highs for production. So I think that that movement higher 77 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 5: is not The stocks haven't caught up to it. 78 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 4: Because they don't really believe it right. 79 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 5: So from an investment standpoint, you're not getting the benefit 80 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 5: of those higher oil prices, but you are seeing them 81 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 5: on a consumer problem as a consumer problem. 82 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 3: Thirty five percent move since June our has been quite 83 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 3: a move, Sarah. Do you see these multinationals, these big 84 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 3: oil integrated companies leaning harder into fossil fuels. There's a 85 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:49,960 Speaker 3: big conversation about where BP is going in Europe, Where 86 00:03:50,000 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 3: shall it's going in Europe? What are the US players 87 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:53,520 Speaker 3: doing in energy? 88 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 5: I think every single one of them is trying to 89 00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 5: find a way to be both relevant in fossil fuels, 90 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:00,880 Speaker 5: but also to look towards the future where fossil fuels 91 00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 5: pay us play a smaller part. The question really is 92 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 5: the timing on that. And I've said before that I 93 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 5: think that that tail is a lot longer than people 94 00:04:07,160 --> 00:04:10,000 Speaker 5: want it to be in terms of what countries are 95 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 5: trying to legislate and also what people would like to see. 96 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 5: But the truth of the matter is that you do 97 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 5: need fossil fuels, and you're going to need them for 98 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 5: a longer period of time. And the earlier discussion about 99 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:20,800 Speaker 5: emerging markets that they're not going to be able to 100 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 5: transition to electric all that quickly. The infrastructure isn't even there. 101 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 5: So as they grow bigger their demand for oil, even 102 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 5: if it's coming down in OECD countries, it's going to 103 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:29,479 Speaker 5: be going up another place. 104 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 2: They got airlines flat on their back. Airlines have been 105 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 2: a post pandemic disaster. In terms of shareholder return, I've 106 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,880 Speaker 2: got Exxon with three percent diviot and okay, generous, I 107 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 2: guess the five year dividend growth rate is totally unacceptable. 108 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 2: Are they going to get used to cast religion? Are 109 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 2: they going to become like Apple and start throwing cash back. 110 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:53,160 Speaker 5: I wouldn't want to opine on Exxon specifically. I think 111 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:55,560 Speaker 5: some of the other oil stocks have definitely gotten religion 112 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:57,840 Speaker 5: on the divid end and return of capital to shareholders, 113 00:04:58,000 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 5: because I think that that was something that they've been 114 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 5: told by Wall Street and by investors that they want. 115 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 5: They don't want them to go out and spend all 116 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 5: this money on production when oil prices are not as 117 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 5: high as they were right now, but they would like 118 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 5: to see some return of capital. So I think that 119 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 5: there has been some change in the way that capital 120 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:14,040 Speaker 5: allocation is looked at across the industry. 121 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:16,120 Speaker 3: Does it matter who's in the White House when it 122 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 3: comes to the energy patch. We make a big deal 123 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 3: about policy coming out of President Biden, former President Donald Trump. 124 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 3: Crudes back in the nineties, but crude production in America 125 00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:27,279 Speaker 3: it's close to all time highs Sarah. And that's happening 126 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 3: with this very anti fossil fuel tone coming out of 127 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:31,479 Speaker 3: the White House. Does it even make a difference, what 128 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:32,200 Speaker 3: they've got to say? 129 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 5: It makes a difference when it comes to permitting, and 130 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:36,000 Speaker 5: it makes a difference when it comes to. 131 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 4: Production that you don't have yet. 132 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:39,960 Speaker 5: Right if you're looking at an area where we've been 133 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 5: able to extract a lot more oil out of fields 134 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 5: that we're already there with the technology changes, and that's 135 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 5: where your productivity comes in. Then is it matters less 136 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:49,919 Speaker 5: when it comes to looking at new areas to be 137 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 5: able to either explore or drill. Then it starts to 138 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:53,479 Speaker 5: make it different on the edges. 139 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:55,600 Speaker 3: Sarah Hunt, thank you. It's going to see you here 140 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 3: in New York. Sarah Hunt of v APPI Saxon. 141 00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:12,159 Speaker 2: Woods bearing gifts this morning from New Orleans on television. 142 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 2: It is aunt Sally's pralines. They're for Bramo And here 143 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:18,479 Speaker 2: you go, Lisa. 144 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 3: We're not saying Sally. I was saying Sally, not Sally's accent. 145 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:29,159 Speaker 2: No, I don't I don't have a they count on radio. 146 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 2: It's yeah, it's like a calorie count on radio. That's 147 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:35,839 Speaker 2: all you need to know. Anya Trees joins us here 148 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:41,839 Speaker 2: from Encyclopedic on Washington, and very importantly Henriette. In this moment, 149 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 2: this is a president who's got to come up with 150 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 2: a new statement for a president on labor unrest. 151 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:48,920 Speaker 1: What does it sound like? 152 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:51,839 Speaker 7: I think you're exactly right, falling back on that Scranton 153 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:55,839 Speaker 7: narrative and speaking to labor unions, the way that this 154 00:06:55,880 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 7: administration has their entire term. We've done this before, they 155 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 7: have a huge success rate. So I think there's a 156 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 7: lot of maybe not surprise in DC, but it's a 157 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 7: different circumstance now that there's actually striking happening, and I 158 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 7: assume it's Defcon one up there and they're all going 159 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 7: to work to result this one. 160 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 3: What do you think this response is going to be. 161 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 3: And let's dig into this. He already cut off the 162 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 3: railroad workers from striking. He can't do that with this. 163 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:25,240 Speaker 3: Even though they did that, they still went around saying 164 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 3: that they were the most pro union administration in the 165 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 3: history of all administrations in the United States of America. 166 00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 3: I'm not sure how you can be so pre union 167 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 3: without giving people the right to strike. Now they're on strike, 168 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 3: shouldn't you be supporting them? 169 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 7: And it's interesting to watch because there's a number of 170 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 7: Democratic lawmakers in the Senate and the House who are 171 00:07:41,920 --> 00:07:44,000 Speaker 7: going to join the strike. Right So you have this 172 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:46,920 Speaker 7: situation where the White House is obviously going to try 173 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 7: to get the strike to conclude, but there's a host 174 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:50,480 Speaker 7: of Democrats who are actually going to strike with them. 175 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 7: So it's a bit of a two sided videotape right there. 176 00:07:56,200 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 6: What about the Republicans? Where should they be coming in 177 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 6: or where are they coming in to try to capitalize 178 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 6: on something that's fraught on both sides, because this is 179 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 6: no longer a one party kind of issue with unions. 180 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 7: It's really not. And I think that Democrats really focus 181 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 7: on this because President Trump, when he was in office, 182 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 7: was so successful at taking so much of the union 183 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 7: vote away from the Democratic Party, and that's a material 184 00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 7: shift that Democrats have to worry about for the future. 185 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 7: So when you see, for example, Trump comment on this, 186 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 7: it's really deflective and moving away to electric vehicles. So 187 00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 7: we're anti electric vehicles, which is of course a big 188 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:34,560 Speaker 7: component of this. But we've just subsidized the entire electric 189 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 7: vehicle industry substantially, whether through. 190 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 6: The Chips Act or through the IRA. 191 00:08:39,160 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 7: Treasury is working on all those electric vehicle tax credits 192 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:43,960 Speaker 7: right now and more. That's what is at the heart 193 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 7: of this debate, because they are they need less workers 194 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 7: for those vehicles. 195 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:51,719 Speaker 6: Does it look less likely that if the auto manufacturers 196 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:53,440 Speaker 6: did to run into trouble on the heels of some 197 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:56,839 Speaker 6: of the labor pushback and their financial situation did weaken 198 00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:59,840 Speaker 6: substantially that any kind of future bailout is off the 199 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 6: the way that it was back in the day. 200 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 7: Oh my gosh, I was in the Senate when we 201 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:06,079 Speaker 7: did the auto bailouts. I don't want to hear that again. 202 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 7: I mean, not to bring it in, but you know, 203 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 7: Mitt Romney is retiring, so maybe we that's terrible, But no, 204 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:15,120 Speaker 7: I don't think that there would be another bailout. I 205 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 7: don't think that that is something that this administration or 206 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 7: America is prepared for. At this point. We passed a 207 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:24,599 Speaker 7: lot of spending bills. I don't see a sector specific 208 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:26,480 Speaker 7: bailout occurring anytime soon. 209 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:32,200 Speaker 2: Twenty twenty union vote Biden fifty seven percent, Trump forty percent. 210 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:35,640 Speaker 2: At the margin, critically from four years before, Biden did 211 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 2: way better than Hillary Clinton. Where are we now, drag 212 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:44,440 Speaker 2: it forward three and a half years. Does Biden still 213 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 2: have the union vote majority. 214 00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 7: I think that when you look at not necessarily the 215 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 7: union vote, but all voting turnout, there are other issues 216 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 7: that are bigger than just union issues. And we've kept 217 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 7: all those tariffs on which labor unions are in some 218 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:02,600 Speaker 7: case supportive of the administration has gone a long way 219 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 7: towards reshoring those Union votes, so I think they stay. 220 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 7: But Trump is got a stranglehold on his party and 221 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:12,880 Speaker 7: so none of those voters are leaving. So I wouldn't 222 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:14,320 Speaker 7: be surprised if it was exactly the same. 223 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 3: I'm not sure how we can have a viable auto 224 00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 3: industry in Europe or in the United States without monster 225 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 3: tariffs protecting this industry. I'm not sure how it can 226 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 3: be viable given what's happening in China at the moment. 227 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 3: The opportunity that they have to produce vehicles at much 228 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 3: lower price, is much lower cost than the Europeans. The 229 00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:34,679 Speaker 3: Europeans are already complaining about that. Isn't that the direction 230 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 3: we're traveling in here? That Europe's about to smack tariffs 231 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 3: even higher and basically say the same thing as America. 232 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 3: You want to sell here, produce here. 233 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:47,439 Speaker 7: Absolutely, I mean tariff's, state subsidization, domestic subsidization for endshoring, 234 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:49,200 Speaker 7: all of that is very much in the cards, and 235 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:52,080 Speaker 7: I think for the foreseeable future under this administration or 236 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 7: in the case that Trump wins. 237 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,160 Speaker 3: Have we thought this through about what this ev transition 238 00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:58,920 Speaker 3: is actually going to look like and how costly it 239 00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 3: could be governments Europe, China, the United States. 240 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 7: I don't think so. And you're seeing that in a 241 00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:08,200 Speaker 7: lot of the delays of these regulations coming out on 242 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 7: clean energy, not necessarily just on electric vehicles, but the solar, 243 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:15,280 Speaker 7: the hydrogen, all of those alternative clean energy components are 244 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:19,000 Speaker 7: requiring tremendous amounts of manpower at Treasury, and one of 245 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:21,280 Speaker 7: the things I hear most frequently is we just don't 246 00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 7: have the experts to finalize these rags. We're working on it. 247 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:27,720 Speaker 7: We know that Commerce Secretary Romando is staffing up Commerce 248 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 7: with one hundred and fifty two hundred new people to 249 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:32,200 Speaker 7: address how to roll this money out where it should go, 250 00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 7: how slowly to phase in these changes, how tire freights 251 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 7: should work in conjunction, whether with the EU or with Mexico. 252 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:43,440 Speaker 7: Those clean steel TIFFs, what are those really about? 253 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:43,680 Speaker 8: You know? 254 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 7: So they're all connected. But I think it's slow going, 255 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 7: and industry is very very keen on getting the details. 256 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 3: We're going to be talking about this for a while, 257 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 3: no doubt about it. And Redda, thank you, it's great 258 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:56,839 Speaker 3: to see you and redd to trace their Veda pounas, 259 00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:58,720 Speaker 3: and thank you for the treats ys well, I appreciate 260 00:11:58,720 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 3: that too. 261 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 2: Joining us now amid this flow and we're watching from 262 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 2: the White House to see when the President will speak. 263 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:13,040 Speaker 1: As R J. Gallo, Senior Vice President con Federated or measin. 264 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:14,640 Speaker 2: We're thrilled that he could join us this morning because 265 00:12:14,640 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 2: he's got the smartest bond note of the week. 266 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:18,319 Speaker 8: R J. 267 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 1: Gallow knows that one of. 268 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:22,280 Speaker 2: The efficacious things to do in bonds is look at 269 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:25,640 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Total Return Index and see that for all 270 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 2: the talk yap about coupon credit spreads blah blah blah, 271 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 2: bonds have gone nowhere. 272 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:31,559 Speaker 8: R J. 273 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:35,000 Speaker 2: Gallow hypothesizes that bonds are not back. 274 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:36,240 Speaker 1: Thank you, r J. 275 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 2: I looked at the chart off your note and I 276 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:43,400 Speaker 2: was thunderstruck. How the blended price of bonds is really 277 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:47,239 Speaker 2: not advanced? Is it still a bond depression? 278 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:50,319 Speaker 9: Well, in the note that you were talking about there, 279 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 9: I made the point that when we started the year, 280 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 9: we felt that it was going to be a favorable 281 00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 9: one for bonds, and clearly it's fallen short. The Treasury 282 00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 9: index is basically zero, the egg is up I think 283 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:03,199 Speaker 9: a half a percent, So yes, it's been disappointing. 284 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:05,360 Speaker 8: I would also note glass half full. 285 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 9: The double digit losses of last year, or call the 286 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 9: ages down like thirteen percent, are clearly behind us, and 287 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 9: looking forward, we're much more optimistic that the time for 288 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 9: fixed income giving you sort of mid low single digit 289 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:22,840 Speaker 9: positive returns and acting as a powerful diversifier in your portfolio. 290 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 9: That is, in fact back with the yields at the 291 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 9: highest in the last twelve to fifteen years. We think 292 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:31,839 Speaker 9: value has been restored and fixed income investors should think 293 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 9: about extending some duration. Getting out of cash legging into 294 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 9: fixed income will be a good move over the next 295 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:38,720 Speaker 9: twelve twenty four months. 296 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:40,960 Speaker 1: Okay, twelve to twenty four months. I'm going to get going. 297 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 2: When do I get back to the regression line that 298 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:46,560 Speaker 2: I had for thirty years? You know, the bill gross 299 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 2: great moderation, price up, up, up up up. How many 300 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:53,040 Speaker 2: years is it going to take to recover from what 301 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:54,679 Speaker 2: we've seen in the last two years. 302 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:56,720 Speaker 9: I hate to say it, but I think that the 303 00:13:56,880 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 9: zero lower bound, you know, present, it's a significant wall 304 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 9: to anything like the returns that we saw over the 305 00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 9: twenty thirty years leading up to the pandemic. If anything, 306 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 9: we believe that it's quite possible that equilibrium mealds are 307 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 9: higher post pandemic than they were for the decade plus prior. 308 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:17,880 Speaker 8: It'll be interesting to see if the. 309 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 9: FED goes there with its long run dot maybe inching 310 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 9: up in the dot plot closer to maybe three, maybe 311 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 9: a little higher. If you look at forward curves, you 312 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:28,920 Speaker 9: can see that the market is there. The market believes 313 00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 9: equilibriy meals are higher, and in that sense, it's going 314 00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:35,359 Speaker 9: to be a while before we see big price returns 315 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:39,840 Speaker 9: from taking a fixed income, high quality fixed income investment. Instead, 316 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:43,400 Speaker 9: I think we'll probably be looking for oscillating markets around 317 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 9: a higher equilibrium, which will still provide a nice return 318 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 9: in ballast for your portfolio, but it's not apt to 319 00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 9: be double digit price returns anytime too soon. 320 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 6: Is this higher yield driven by inflation or driven by 321 00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 6: something else, Whether it's a budget deficit that spooks investors 322 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 6: or a changing central bank regime in Japan, that's a 323 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 6: great question. 324 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 9: I think that there's been a number of factors that 325 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:09,560 Speaker 9: have shifted us towards what's probably a slightly higher equilibrium 326 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 9: yield environment. The budget deficits a big part of it. 327 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:15,880 Speaker 9: Sovereign debt has exploded. We've got a lot of debt 328 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:18,480 Speaker 9: to roll over. Obviously, we have structural imbalances here in 329 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 9: the US that no one wants to deal with in Washington. 330 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 9: So that's one factor. I think on the favorable side, 331 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 9: a lot of talk about AI about technological innovation. In 332 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 9: the long run, when you have technological innovation, your potential 333 00:15:30,880 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 9: growth rate goes up, higher potential growth rates, higher equilibrium yields. 334 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 9: That's actually a positive thing that could put more people 335 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 9: to work. Of course, you've got to talk about the 336 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 9: issues of displacement, who gets jobs out of the new technology, 337 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 9: who loses them? But ultimately, I think higher potential growth rates, 338 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 9: larger budget deficits, and some pushback against internationalization, the pushback 339 00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 9: against the global trade marketplace that helped to produce low 340 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:58,200 Speaker 9: inflation and low yields prior to the pandemic. 341 00:15:58,240 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 8: Now you're talking about on shoring. 342 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 9: That's a big change, and I think ultimately that too 343 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 9: is probably going to lift yelds a little higher, as 344 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 9: the disinflationary impact of globalization might not be as strong 345 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:09,160 Speaker 9: as it was in the prior ten. 346 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 8: Or fifteen years. 347 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 6: That's in the years ahead. In the here and now, 348 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 6: we're looking at an UAW strike that's roiling washing, it's Royling, Washington, DC, 349 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 6: but also Detroit. Does that factor into your yield call? 350 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:22,400 Speaker 6: Does that factor into the bond space as you look 351 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 6: out to understand the growth as well as the inflation picture. 352 00:16:26,040 --> 00:16:29,000 Speaker 8: Yes, it does. I mean obviously it cuts in two ways. 353 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 9: First and foremost, these workers are looking for raises. It's 354 00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 9: no surprise we dealt with the highest inflation in forty years. 355 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 9: A lot of workers are looking for raises. That makes 356 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 9: sense as they deal with the higher cost of living. 357 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 9: You stop there, you would think that strikes have to 358 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 9: be inflationary. Ultimately, however, you've got to consider the near 359 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:51,920 Speaker 9: term impact of a strike is less production, less economic activity, 360 00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 9: and the multiplier effects that occur in the local economies 361 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 9: around these three plants, and if it extends to more plants, 362 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 9: that economic impact only grows. I think ultimately, this idea 363 00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 9: of empowered labor across the country is very predictable. At 364 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,200 Speaker 9: a point in time like this, I think it's challenging 365 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 9: for the White House that you guys have been saying. 366 00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:15,840 Speaker 9: I think from an economic standpoint, I'm focusing a little 367 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 9: bit more on the growth headwind that's going to produce 368 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 9: in the near term. It's not the case that every 369 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:23,480 Speaker 9: dollar raises that the auto companies are going to give 370 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:25,600 Speaker 9: these workers to get them back on the job, that 371 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:28,199 Speaker 9: those that's going to be simply passed through one for 372 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:31,360 Speaker 9: one into higher prices at the dealership where we buy 373 00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:31,800 Speaker 9: our cars. 374 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:34,160 Speaker 3: I've got an any question out, Jay, Can I squeeze 375 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,120 Speaker 3: it in because I've only got about thirty seconds left 376 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:39,440 Speaker 3: with you? Do I want to avoid industries that are 377 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 3: witnessing like we see in airlines, like we see in automakers, 378 00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 3: this powerful movement from labor. 379 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:49,159 Speaker 8: In terms of what industries you would go to to avoid. 380 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 3: Should I avoid the airlines? Should I avoid the automakers 381 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:54,560 Speaker 3: purely because of the evidence of labor market power? Should 382 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:55,720 Speaker 3: I avoid those industries? 383 00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:58,639 Speaker 9: Well, I do think it's clearly a margin compression story 384 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:01,240 Speaker 9: in these industries. As of a saying the automakers won't 385 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:03,800 Speaker 9: be able to price pass through to price one for one, 386 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:05,920 Speaker 9: the raise is that their workers are going to get 387 00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,399 Speaker 9: I clearly think that is a challenge in terms of 388 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:11,360 Speaker 9: sector rotation on the equity side. 389 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 8: I don't know if I've necessarily avoid it. 390 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:16,480 Speaker 9: That's really not my main main area of expertise, I 391 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:19,360 Speaker 9: can tell you on the fixed income side, we've been 392 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 9: relatively cautious on investment grade corporates and high yield because 393 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:25,879 Speaker 9: we think a broad based margin compression is a story 394 00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:28,320 Speaker 9: that's still out there, and we're not as optimistic on 395 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:29,760 Speaker 9: corporate profits in general. 396 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:32,520 Speaker 8: I would focus on that from a broader macro perspective. 397 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 3: Interesting, Alja, thank you. I chick out of the Federated 398 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 3: Hermes on some important issues. 399 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 2: We're going to go to Disney Plus and the intractable 400 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:53,960 Speaker 2: issues that mister Eiger faces. Getha Raganathen joins right now 401 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,399 Speaker 2: with Bloomberg Intelligence and Githa. To me, this is about 402 00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:03,200 Speaker 2: fancy companies flying in fancy Kinsey, BCG Bain people to 403 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:07,400 Speaker 2: strategists to save the day. What would the strategists say 404 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:11,760 Speaker 2: this morning to mister Iiger. Let's pick on McKenzie McKinsey. 405 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 2: Media shows up. What do they say to the leader 406 00:19:15,600 --> 00:19:16,200 Speaker 2: of Disney. 407 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:18,879 Speaker 10: Well, they already have it's good morning, town, thanks for 408 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 10: having it. So they already have a lot of things 409 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 10: that are going on right now at Disney. So you 410 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 10: have on one side, you have the streaming business, which, 411 00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 10: as you've just pointed out, is losing subscribers, but then 412 00:19:29,040 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 10: the whole narrative there has really kind of shifted away 413 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:35,359 Speaker 10: from subscribers to profitability. So somehow Bob Iger has to 414 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 10: show that this business is going to be profitable sooner 415 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 10: rather than later. We know Netflix has kind of already 416 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:43,400 Speaker 10: set the template in the market. There is a blueprint 417 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,560 Speaker 10: for streaming profitability, so they have to figure out a 418 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 10: way to get there. But more important for Disney right 419 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:53,120 Speaker 10: now is to somehow kind of show the market that 420 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,879 Speaker 10: they have a plan for their linear TV networks. And 421 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,080 Speaker 10: the linear TV networks have really been in the news 422 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:00,879 Speaker 10: a lot over the past few days, whether it was 423 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:03,880 Speaker 10: that dispute with Charter and more recently, you know, all 424 00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:06,359 Speaker 10: of these news reports about them looking to kind of 425 00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:09,360 Speaker 10: dispose of some of their networks and multiple bidders emerging. 426 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:11,440 Speaker 10: So there's a lot going on there. But I think 427 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:14,960 Speaker 10: as as soon as mister Eiger can kind of clarify 428 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:17,440 Speaker 10: the narrative, it's all going to become much better. 429 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:17,920 Speaker 1: We Githa. 430 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:20,200 Speaker 2: You know, we had Michael Nathanson commenting earlier, and I 431 00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:24,159 Speaker 2: look at Mafatt Nathanson for ten years has talked about 432 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 2: cord cutting, and they were correct and I believe Mafatt 433 00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 2: Nathanson would say, you know, what had actually happened faster 434 00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:35,080 Speaker 2: than we thought. Is Eiger listening to the public. Is 435 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:37,400 Speaker 2: Iiger listening to Seth Rosen? 436 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 10: He absolutely is, and he's been forced to. I mean, 437 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 10: the data is staring at you, you know, in the face. 438 00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:45,600 Speaker 10: So there's absolutely there's no way to sugar quote the 439 00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:48,679 Speaker 10: fact that the industry is losing subscribers. We've lost roughly 440 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:52,239 Speaker 10: twenty five to thirty million subscribers over the past you know, 441 00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:54,359 Speaker 10: five to ten years, so that is, you know, the 442 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 10: writing is on the wall. Bob Eiger has said that, 443 00:20:57,359 --> 00:21:00,160 Speaker 10: you know, they are willing to take the steps. It's 444 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,399 Speaker 10: actually publicly said that the linear TV business is no 445 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 10: longer core to Disney. And if you just kind of 446 00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:08,639 Speaker 10: look at the Disney profitability profile for twenty twenty three, 447 00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:11,439 Speaker 10: out of the thirteen billion dollars that they will generate 448 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 10: in trofits this year, seventy five percent of that is 449 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:16,960 Speaker 10: going to come from parks. So they really know where 450 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,119 Speaker 10: they need to kind of focus. It has to be 451 00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:22,440 Speaker 10: on the parks business and getting that to even higher profitability, 452 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:26,400 Speaker 10: and it has to be reducing losses in the streaming 453 00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 10: business as well as kind of keeping you know, the 454 00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:31,000 Speaker 10: linear TV business in in cruise control, because the streaming 455 00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,320 Speaker 10: business will lose close about three billion dollars this year. 456 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 6: Today, it seems like stock investors are getting the message, Githa. 457 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,200 Speaker 6: We are seeing nine tensiever percent pop in the Disney 458 00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:41,879 Speaker 6: shares ahead of the open. It does seem to be 459 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,600 Speaker 6: like that is the narrative that's coming out of this, right, 460 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 6: especially not giving subscribers for Disney Plus, which is a 461 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:51,959 Speaker 6: successful platform, but not necessarily emphasizing growth. And then the 462 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,320 Speaker 6: news about ABC, does this mean they're not going to 463 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:56,760 Speaker 6: be investing in content that they're hoping to save money 464 00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:57,359 Speaker 6: on that front. 465 00:21:57,720 --> 00:21:59,680 Speaker 10: They definitely, I mean, that's a great point, Lisa, and 466 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,520 Speaker 10: they definitely are looking to save money on content. So 467 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 10: they had initially projected about thirty billion dollars thirty thirty 468 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:07,560 Speaker 10: one billion dollars in content costs for twenty twenty three. 469 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,679 Speaker 10: They've actually taken that down to twenty seven billion, So 470 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 10: there's already been some reduction on that front. Of course, 471 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,199 Speaker 10: that is largely in part due to the Hollywood, you know, 472 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,359 Speaker 10: the dual strikes. But even going forward, I think they 473 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:22,119 Speaker 10: are going to take a really really disciplined approach. I mean, 474 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,359 Speaker 10: bar Bieger has openly said that, you know, they're not 475 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,679 Speaker 10: going to be green lighting projects left right and center, 476 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:28,639 Speaker 10: whether it's for the film business, whether it's for the 477 00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,119 Speaker 10: TV business. So they're definitely taking a hard look. And 478 00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:34,040 Speaker 10: remember they haven't really performed all that well on the 479 00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,680 Speaker 10: content front as well, especially you brought up Elemental. That's 480 00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 10: a great point. I mean, we've seen a string of 481 00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:40,960 Speaker 10: misfires from the Disney studio. I mean, this is one 482 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:43,960 Speaker 10: of the one of the best performing studios in the 483 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:47,600 Speaker 10: history of you know, films, and so it's kind of 484 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:49,960 Speaker 10: been a little bit of a disappointment. But I think 485 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,359 Speaker 10: he is kind of really looking to revamp all of 486 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 10: the content franchises right now. 487 00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:57,439 Speaker 6: At the same time, ESPN long considered a contender for 488 00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,240 Speaker 6: a sale for buy Disney at a time, and it 489 00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 6: was at the heart of a dispute with Cable over 490 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:06,119 Speaker 6: the past couple of days. Is that still for sale? 491 00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 6: Is that still the rumor out there, or is there 492 00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:11,920 Speaker 6: going to really focus on expanding and fortifying this because 493 00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:15,600 Speaker 6: sports really are the heartbeat of all of our media content. 494 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,600 Speaker 10: I absolutely agree. I actually think it's the latter that 495 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 10: they will look to keep the ESPN network. What they're 496 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:24,399 Speaker 10: trying to get rid off is the rest of the 497 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,280 Speaker 10: linear network portfolio. They do realize that they can have 498 00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:29,160 Speaker 10: They have a lot of opportunity with the ESPN. They're 499 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,920 Speaker 10: already paying about nine billion dollars every year in sports 500 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,640 Speaker 10: content costs. You know, there's a huge advertising business there, 501 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:36,600 Speaker 10: there's a huge, huge afflid business, and I think there 502 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,080 Speaker 10: is a lot of potentials. I think they will look 503 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:40,160 Speaker 10: to keep ESPN dispose off the rest. 504 00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, but the heart of the matter is you led 505 00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:45,320 Speaker 2: with GETA and you're expert on this is everybody needs 506 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:49,960 Speaker 2: to be Netflix. So Disney Plus picks up the Australian 507 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:55,840 Speaker 2: animation Bluey, and it's Bluey Healer and his sister Bingo Healer, 508 00:23:56,480 --> 00:24:00,080 Speaker 2: and that's all great. Can blue from Australia deliver for 509 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:05,119 Speaker 2: eiger twenty one percent ebitda margins. 510 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,480 Speaker 10: It actually can? It is going to take a little 511 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,200 Speaker 10: bit of time. You know, what Netflix has achieved has 512 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,400 Speaker 10: been over a period of you know, ten, twelve, thirteen years. 513 00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 10: You know, remember just a few years ago we were 514 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:16,520 Speaker 10: criticizing them for burning about three and a half four 515 00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 10: billion dollars in cash, So it's taken a while. So 516 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,400 Speaker 10: you know, yes, they have kind of set the template, 517 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:23,439 Speaker 10: and Disney needs to take a page out of the 518 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 10: Netflix playbook so it knows exactly what it needs to hit, 519 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 10: and I think they will by fiscal twenty twenty five 520 00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:31,120 Speaker 10: twenty twenty six, we are going to see this business 521 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,440 Speaker 10: generate fairly good margins and ultimately get to that twenty 522 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,399 Speaker 10: twenty five percent margins. I think it's absolutely achievable, but 523 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,679 Speaker 10: of course a lot needs to be done before we 524 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:40,720 Speaker 10: can hit those targets. 525 00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:44,080 Speaker 3: Okatha, let me share some of my emails with you, Hi, Jonathan. 526 00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:46,959 Speaker 3: The price of Hulu no Ads plus Live TV, Disney 527 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,920 Speaker 3: Plus no Ads, and ESPN plus with ads will increase 528 00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:53,200 Speaker 3: on October twelve, twenty three to eighty nine ninety nine. 529 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:58,440 Speaker 3: Take eighty nine wow nine month you two eighteen nine 530 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:00,120 Speaker 3: ninety nine a month. 531 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,719 Speaker 1: Ninety bucks I believe is what we call that. Yeah, 532 00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:06,560 Speaker 1: that's like a barrel of oil. Barrel Ino's living room. 533 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,480 Speaker 6: Where we're at a thousand bucks a year more than that. 534 00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:10,120 Speaker 3: That is where we're at. 535 00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:12,400 Speaker 1: Bramo does a math. That's ridiculous. 536 00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:16,120 Speaker 3: That's ridiculous, Gaitha. Can they put up prices anymore. 537 00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:18,800 Speaker 10: I mean, it's it's going to be tough. But actually 538 00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:22,080 Speaker 10: the recent deal that they did with Charter suggests that 539 00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:25,240 Speaker 10: they are now willing to kind of rebundle all these services. 540 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 10: I think in many ways that was kind of a 541 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,840 Speaker 10: landmark deal. You know we are coming. I know it 542 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,600 Speaker 10: sounds almost silly and ironic, but yes, there is going 543 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,840 Speaker 10: to be the great cable. Rebundling Charter was the first step. 544 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:37,920 Speaker 10: I think we're going to see many more of those 545 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:38,520 Speaker 10: deals happen. 546 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:42,600 Speaker 3: Gaitha, Thank you announced that bro blimpag Intelligence. 547 00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:47,720 Speaker 1: Long ago. 548 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:51,679 Speaker 2: Stuart Wallace helped build this out Bloomberg Hydrocarbons, and the 549 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,760 Speaker 2: leadership has been Javier Bloss, writing for Bloomberg Opinion and 550 00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:57,440 Speaker 2: of course the book award winning the World for Sale. 551 00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,239 Speaker 2: Mister Bloss joins this morning, how I want to get 552 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,400 Speaker 2: away from market economics and I want to talk about 553 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:05,119 Speaker 2: the culture and fabric that you wrote about in the 554 00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,919 Speaker 2: World for Sale. If you interpolate out one hundred dollars 555 00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,439 Speaker 2: Saudi light, what does it do to the royal family? 556 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 2: What doeses it do to the fabric and culture of 557 00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:15,640 Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia, Well. 558 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:18,280 Speaker 11: What it does for the royal families. They immediately became 559 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,359 Speaker 11: very popular. You saw it on the G twenty a 560 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,440 Speaker 11: few days ago in India where President Biden was again 561 00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:27,639 Speaker 11: shaking hands with Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of 562 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:31,639 Speaker 11: Saudi Arabia, and using the own wars of the President 563 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:34,720 Speaker 11: of the US President he wanted to make of Mohammed 564 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 11: bin salmana paraya in international economics, and now he is 565 00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:42,679 Speaker 11: shaking hands one hundred dollars. It just transforms the Saudi 566 00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,560 Speaker 11: royal family into a mass knee, the sole one that 567 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,480 Speaker 11: everyone needs to told, everyone needs to debate because one 568 00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:52,399 Speaker 11: hundred dollars oil, it's going to have a profound economic implications, 569 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:55,359 Speaker 11: just when central banks are trying to decide that whether 570 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:56,760 Speaker 11: they have done enough for inflation. 571 00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:59,600 Speaker 2: I have a president Brian Biden is going to speak 572 00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:03,160 Speaker 2: of an autos strike today. He and I remember when 573 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,560 Speaker 2: there were a lot of VW Rabbit diesels sold in 574 00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:11,240 Speaker 2: America and Detroit was hammered, and then nineteen eighty six 575 00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:15,800 Speaker 2: happened and Opek was broken, the price plunged. Is there 576 00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 2: any ability to break OPAQ Opek plus to break the 577 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,440 Speaker 2: Saudist in twenty twenty four. 578 00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:23,680 Speaker 12: No, I don't think so. 579 00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:27,560 Speaker 11: I think that OPEC and OPEC plus, particularly this joint 580 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:31,119 Speaker 11: agreement between the Russians and the Southeast, is still very strong, 581 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:35,160 Speaker 11: and the Southeast have absolute control of the market right now, 582 00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,000 Speaker 11: both on the upside and on the town side. They 583 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:41,080 Speaker 11: have demonstrated that they have the ability to push prices 584 00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:45,520 Speaker 11: much higher than that many have anticipated, and they can 585 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,800 Speaker 11: do the other way down. They demonstrated only a few 586 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:51,359 Speaker 11: years ago that they are willing and they are capable 587 00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:55,119 Speaker 11: of sometimes the market is needed to punish rivals or 588 00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:58,520 Speaker 11: to force the collapse of US domestic oil production. 589 00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:01,080 Speaker 12: So I think that they are really on the driving seat. 590 00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:04,040 Speaker 6: How much does the price of crude operate on a 591 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:05,919 Speaker 6: lag And I guess maybe I've been tied up too 592 00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:08,920 Speaker 6: much in monetary policy, but this idea that if Saudi 593 00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:12,320 Speaker 6: Arabia is cutting production at a time we're heading into 594 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:15,760 Speaker 6: a bigger consumption period, whether it's the holidays or whether 595 00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 6: it's heating, that you're going to see a rapid spiking 596 00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:22,800 Speaker 6: prices as inventories get depleted that much faster. How much 597 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 6: is that concern? 598 00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:26,280 Speaker 11: There is a concern, and certainly the Saudists have to 599 00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,479 Speaker 11: cut production to bring the price. What it is today, 600 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:33,800 Speaker 11: but let's not forget that a production from unexpected sources 601 00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:37,119 Speaker 11: have increased significantly this year. We were not expecting a 602 00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:41,720 Speaker 11: much of an increasing production from an esports from Iran, however, 603 00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:45,520 Speaker 11: Iran is this year the second largest source of incremental 604 00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:49,640 Speaker 11: oil supply into the market, only behind the usail industry. 605 00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:53,000 Speaker 11: The Saudist have cut production to accommodate in sol ways 606 00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 11: the returnal of Iran and making sure that the price 607 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:58,480 Speaker 11: remains as high. But looking at the demand side, it's 608 00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:02,320 Speaker 11: just fine. We're a record high demand above pre COVID levels. 609 00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:06,240 Speaker 11: Demand in China looks robots is not as it was 610 00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,520 Speaker 11: in previous years, but this is still doing well. Gasoline 611 00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:12,520 Speaker 11: and jet fuel in particular, and elsewhere the demand perhaps 612 00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:16,400 Speaker 11: is not just spectacular, nothing to write home, but it's healthy. 613 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:17,920 Speaker 12: It's nothing to panic. 614 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,000 Speaker 6: At this point. There were some hopes that during the 615 00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:22,560 Speaker 6: G twenty you would hear a better meeting between President 616 00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:25,800 Speaker 6: bid Muhammed build someone, maybe a fist bump, something to 617 00:29:25,800 --> 00:29:27,880 Speaker 6: give a sense of okay, is there going to be 618 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:31,960 Speaker 6: some pressure by Washington and Riad to maybe ease off 619 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:35,360 Speaker 6: these cuts increase production. There was a handshake, There wasn't 620 00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:38,240 Speaker 6: much else have we gleaned anything from what happened in 621 00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:38,680 Speaker 6: that meeting? 622 00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:41,080 Speaker 12: No, nothing from that meeting. 623 00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:44,280 Speaker 11: And it's quite surprising how silence the White House has 624 00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:46,920 Speaker 11: been with the Saudi production cuts and the fact that 625 00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:49,280 Speaker 11: we are back to one hundred the levels gasoline and 626 00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,520 Speaker 11: diesel prices, in particular diesel in the United States are 627 00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:55,520 Speaker 11: climbing very rapidly, and the White House has not say 628 00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:57,920 Speaker 11: a p about what the Saudis. 629 00:29:57,600 --> 00:29:59,120 Speaker 12: Had up to. I mean, in the past, you will 630 00:29:59,160 --> 00:29:59,640 Speaker 12: you will have. 631 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,240 Speaker 11: The Press Secretary is denouncing the maneuvers, and I think 632 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:05,080 Speaker 11: that that's the main reason for that, is all the 633 00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:08,440 Speaker 11: political maneuvering and diplomacy that is going on between the 634 00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:12,160 Speaker 11: United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel for some kind of 635 00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 11: diplomatic deal between the three sides. And that's to me 636 00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:17,960 Speaker 11: the main reason why the Bide and administration has been 637 00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:20,560 Speaker 11: relatively silent on one hundred dollars oil AaB. 638 00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:24,400 Speaker 3: How small is the strategic petranium reserve in America now. 639 00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:27,400 Speaker 11: Well, it's the smallest in forty years. We used for 640 00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:29,640 Speaker 11: a lot of last year we have not put back. 641 00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:31,840 Speaker 11: The White House keeps saying that we are gonna buy 642 00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 11: but it's not happening, and by the way it looked 643 00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:37,840 Speaker 11: at the time like a very smart trade. Perhaps the 644 00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:41,080 Speaker 11: best oil trade may just sell the SPR at very 645 00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:43,600 Speaker 11: high levels in twenty twenty two, buy it back in 646 00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:47,240 Speaker 11: twenty twenty three a much lower levels. WTI is more 647 00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:49,880 Speaker 11: or less where it was a year ago when we 648 00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:52,880 Speaker 11: were selling the SBR. That trade is off, and now 649 00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 11: potentially rather than making a big profit, the White House 650 00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:59,320 Speaker 11: may and just losing money is if it needs. 651 00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:00,600 Speaker 12: To buy by barrels. 652 00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:03,400 Speaker 11: But so far there is no indication that the Department 653 00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:05,960 Speaker 11: of Energy of the White House in any rush whatsoever 654 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:09,840 Speaker 11: to reveal the strategic Patrollium reserve. All the purchases that 655 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:12,080 Speaker 11: have been made so far are very very small. 656 00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:14,920 Speaker 3: So from your perspective, how vulnerable is this country to 657 00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:17,480 Speaker 3: a price shock a supply shock? Have you given? The 658 00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:20,120 Speaker 3: production in America? It's very close to all time highs 659 00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:21,760 Speaker 3: and the SPR is so low. 660 00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:24,640 Speaker 11: Well, it is more robos that it was twenty years 661 00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:27,360 Speaker 11: ago because it has a lot more domestic production. That's 662 00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:30,520 Speaker 11: without doubt, and within at the time that President Biden 663 00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:33,320 Speaker 11: have been the the in the White House, US production 664 00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:36,200 Speaker 11: has to continue to climb to an old time high. 665 00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:39,400 Speaker 11: But we were to have to do something similar to 666 00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:43,080 Speaker 11: twenty twenty two. We have one one final bullet into 667 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:46,360 Speaker 11: to be used. That's as much as oil as is 668 00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,760 Speaker 11: back on the SBR. We use a lot and there 669 00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:49,400 Speaker 11: is no much. 670 00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:51,800 Speaker 2: Left avia help me get ready for next week. We 671 00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:55,400 Speaker 2: have Christian mail like a JP Morgan and it's really magisterial. 672 00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:58,840 Speaker 2: Study a year ago of over one hundred dollars oil 673 00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:03,360 Speaker 2: was based on a merging market demand. In your study 674 00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,320 Speaker 2: of this and all the resources you have, is there 675 00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:10,760 Speaker 2: a resiliency and growth to emerging market barrels per day? 676 00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:13,560 Speaker 11: There is a still I mean, if we look at 677 00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:17,960 Speaker 11: an oil demand in China and India elsewhere in Asia, 678 00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:20,480 Speaker 11: they are consuming a lot more oil than in the past, 679 00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:22,720 Speaker 11: but they consume a fraction of what Europe and the 680 00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:26,080 Speaker 11: United States do on a per capita basis. And yes, 681 00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:30,080 Speaker 11: those countries will perhaps kip a technology and may not 682 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,280 Speaker 11: use as many gasoline and diesel cars as we have 683 00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:33,840 Speaker 11: used in. 684 00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:36,440 Speaker 12: The West because they will move to electrify. 685 00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,160 Speaker 11: But you see where the population is growing, where the 686 00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,680 Speaker 11: economic growth is coming in this planet. That's Asia, that's Africa, 687 00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:44,920 Speaker 11: that's Latin America, and there is going to be more 688 00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:46,920 Speaker 11: need for energy, and I think a lot of that 689 00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:49,040 Speaker 11: energy is going to remain for sil films. 690 00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:52,320 Speaker 3: Aviah, this was great, fantastic column and on Bloomberg Today. 691 00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:55,720 Speaker 3: Have a blast there. Bloomberg Opinion on Triple digit Crude 692 00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:56,680 Speaker 3: at a read. 693 00:32:57,240 --> 00:33:01,080 Speaker 2: Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on app, Spotify and 694 00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:05,400 Speaker 2: anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday 695 00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:09,160 Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the 696 00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:13,280 Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 697 00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:15,520 Speaker 1: You can watch us live on. 698 00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:19,000 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. 699 00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:23,600 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is Bloomberg