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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast Better than Most, Better

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Speaker 1: than Most.

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Speaker 2: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. We are presented by

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Speaker 2: bet MGM. We are here for the twenty twenty four

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Speaker 2: US Open betting preview.

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Speaker 3: We're joined today by Spencer.

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Speaker 2: Agyar who contributes at the Action Network, and special guest

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Speaker 2: Pat Mayo of the Patmeo Experience.

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Speaker 3: Brendy Glaschen in the host chair.

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Speaker 2: We'll make our way through the card favorites, some long

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Speaker 2: shots as well as some head to heads, and of

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Speaker 2: course breakdown which Spencer did a great job sort of

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Speaker 2: diving into this over on actionnetwork dot com. If you're

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Speaker 2: watching on the YouTube page, please subscribe there as well.

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Speaker 2: We appreciate your visibility and also like and subscribe to

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Speaker 2: the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 4: Gents.

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Speaker 2: We'll start out with just kind of an overarching look

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Speaker 2: at this particular field, Spencer or I'll turn to you.

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Speaker 2: First third Men's Championship of the Year, but the US opens.

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Speaker 2: Some top of the line notes that come to.

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Speaker 3: Mind for you.

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Speaker 1: Scotti Scheffler and his price.

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Speaker 5: I mean, I think that has been the talking point

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Speaker 5: from every single show that you're listening to that this

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Speaker 5: is the most similar to the Tiger Woods prices that

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Speaker 5: we were getting in the prime of his career. And

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Speaker 5: you know, here's the thing, and here's the discussion that

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Speaker 5: I think at least needs to be had here. And

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Speaker 5: I'll let Pat talk about this himself. I would assume

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Speaker 5: he has a similar viewpoint that I do. I mean,

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Speaker 5: I don't want to speak for him here, but to me,

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Speaker 5: people have been more concerned at this tournament with saying

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Speaker 5: that they're going to hit the winner than actually making

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Speaker 5: a long term profit. That does not mean Scheffler is

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Speaker 5: not going to win this event, but there are real

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Speaker 5: ramifications to your bank role when you have to get

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Speaker 5: down double triple, you know, quadruple the exposure as you

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Speaker 5: normally would to try to back a number that is,

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Speaker 5: to me, shifted into a territory of no return. It's

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Speaker 5: one thing for people when they give out recommendations and

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Speaker 5: they don't track the outcome because it becomes this out

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Speaker 5: of sight, out of mind situation. It's another one you

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Speaker 5: have real money and real tracking of the bet if

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Speaker 5: it doesn't hit. So I'm trying to figure out a

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Speaker 5: way of how do we take Scotty on in the

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Speaker 5: most profitable sense of the word with that, and the

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Speaker 5: answer will always be other markets that are not outright bets,

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Speaker 5: but people like to hear outright bets, so we'll talk

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Speaker 5: about some of those here.

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Speaker 6: Well, bet MGM has the without Scheffler market, which is

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Speaker 6: actually pretty fairly priced. I did not expect it to

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Speaker 6: be so fairly priced. So if you're really worried about

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Speaker 6: Scottie Scheffler, you can just bet on Scottie Scheffer that

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Speaker 6: that is something you're allowed to do, or you can

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Speaker 6: go to that market however, in the Scheffler market itself.

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Speaker 4: So I guess that's the best way to think about it.

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Speaker 6: Is what are your goals of what you want to

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Speaker 6: win in a golf turn? Now, I, if I'm betting

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Speaker 6: outright winners, I like to win some or between six

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Speaker 6: and nine times whatever money I put in.

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Speaker 4: So if I put in three hundred bucks, I need to.

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Speaker 6: Be winning around twenty one hundred twenty five hundred coming

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Speaker 6: back for myself. So how do I do that with

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Speaker 6: Scotti Scheffler, Well, he's what plus three thirty three, he's

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Speaker 6: basically three to one. So my entire bank roll this

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Speaker 6: week in order for me to achieve that would have

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Speaker 6: to go on Scotty Scheffler. Now, I'm just not willing

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Speaker 6: to do that.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 6: I can play with the without Scotty market if I'm

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Speaker 6: truly concerned about that. But the one thing that I've found, Spence,

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Speaker 6: is the numbers that we're getting on some of these

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Speaker 6: guys with Scotty in the field are really good compared

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Speaker 6: to what we used to get them met.

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Speaker 4: They're not quite as good as they should be. But

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Speaker 4: when you can start getting.

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Speaker 6: Brooks at twenty four to one or twenty to one,

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Speaker 6: depending on what the market bears, some of these guys

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Speaker 6: down the border are still very live to win this tournament.

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Speaker 4: And don't forget for as much as Scotty Scheffler as

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Speaker 4: the new.

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Speaker 6: Tiger Woods, tiger Woods as fourteen major, Scotti Scheffler as two.

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Speaker 6: And it's not like this isn't the only time that

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Speaker 6: Scotty Scheffer has been playing amazing golf going into a

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Speaker 6: major that he didn't win. So's the brakes a little

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Speaker 6: bit on Scotty Scheffler until he gets to his six

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Speaker 6: seven eight, Then I'll say, you know what I was wrong,

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Speaker 6: But I don't think he should be this price, and

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Speaker 6: I think it's helping out everyone else.

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Speaker 2: Xander Schaffle eleven to one, Roy McElroy twelve to one Spencer.

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Speaker 2: You discussed in You're right up previewing the US Open

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Speaker 2: at Pinehurst Resort and Country Club, that those three emerge

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Speaker 2: to you. So not just Scheffler, but what do you

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Speaker 2: make of the rest of the top of the board.

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Speaker 5: I seem to have this differing opinion than most people

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Speaker 5: in this space when you look at this, like, yes,

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Speaker 5: Scotty Scheffler is in his own league. You can pull

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Speaker 5: it from any statistical data that you want to find.

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Speaker 5: I'll get into a little bit when we talk about

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Speaker 5: the outright market, but like, just in a nutshell of

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Speaker 5: the situation there, he's getting two point six y three

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Speaker 5: strokes total in my two year running baseline that I have.

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Speaker 5: There's only one other golfer that's over two shots. Now,

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Speaker 5: I think here's the interesting thing about if you're trying

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Speaker 5: to take him on his ball striking is so immaculate

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Speaker 5: an elite, you're not gonna beat him in a ball

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Speaker 5: striking battle. You need to find the golfer who can

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Speaker 5: be the closest with their ball striking and that you

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Speaker 5: hope that their putter gives them the ability to go

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Speaker 5: nuclear with that portion of their game where Scotty ends

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Speaker 5: up faltering and there are negative trajectory marks inside of

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Speaker 5: my model for him on fast Bermuda green complexes. And

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Speaker 5: you know, the putters turned around this season and has

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Speaker 5: become closer to what we had gotten from him when

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Speaker 5: he went on the run previously. And that's why you're

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Speaker 5: getting all these victories when you're over a stroke better

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Speaker 5: strokes gaing tee to green than the next best player

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Speaker 5: in the tournament, and the putter is, oh, now it's

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Speaker 5: actually good or decent. You're gonna win a lot of events.

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Speaker 5: But I'm trying to find the players that had the

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Speaker 5: biggest ceiling outputs inside of my model in different areas,

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Speaker 5: and then where was I able to find that spike

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Speaker 5: potential the putter being one of those ways that I'm

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Speaker 5: going to go in that direction. I also think you

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Speaker 5: can figure out a way to get an advantage if

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Speaker 5: you are really good with your long iron proximity from

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Speaker 5: one hundred and seventy five plus yards, you're gonna get

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Speaker 5: disproportionate amount of strokes that are coming in that area

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Speaker 5: into these really fiery fast screens, so.

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Speaker 1: High apex ball flights.

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Speaker 5: Are gonna be able to hold the surface a lot

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Speaker 5: better than a lot of these low ballflight players. And

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Speaker 5: that's one of the things in my model where give

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Speaker 5: me that sort of a blueprint, that recipe of a golfer.

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Speaker 5: And those are the names that I ended up circling

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Speaker 5: trying to oppose Scotty Scheffler on the outright board.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Pat, I heard you mentioned you're looking a little

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Speaker 2: further down the board, but at the top when you

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Speaker 2: go right after Scotty to a Xander Schoffle or Roy McElroy,

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Speaker 2: those golfers that you're willing to possibly back.

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Speaker 4: No, not at that price.

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Speaker 6: That's the price where I would feel comfortable betting Scotty Scheffler,

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Speaker 6: not these two jibbronis.

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Speaker 3: Okay, want to further explain.

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Speaker 6: I mean, yes, Xander, just one Xander. You really think

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Speaker 6: Xander's gonna win two majors in a row? Is a

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Speaker 6: guy that took like three years to win a tournament,

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Speaker 6: He's gonna win two majors in a row?

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Speaker 5: No?

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Speaker 4: Thanks a decade for Rory.

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Speaker 6: At a course that completely works against what his major

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Speaker 6: skill sets are. He can't just sit there and bombit

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Speaker 6: three hundred and eighty years.

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Speaker 1: Maybe can't.

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Speaker 6: It's ball straight every single time. But I just don't

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Speaker 6: see it with those two, Like they are so much

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Speaker 6: closer to the pack of five players behind them than

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Speaker 6: they are to Scotti Scheffler at the moment.

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Speaker 4: So I would just take the guys with the better odds.

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Speaker 5: Pat. I will say one thing that I do think

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Speaker 5: there's a realistic chance that the floodgates could open for Xander.

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Speaker 4: Oh, come on.

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Speaker 1: You, we'll get the statistical data.

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Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, that's great.

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Speaker 6: I mean he should have won what seventeen times over

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Speaker 6: the last three years, and he won once.

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Speaker 5: Look at what he's done in his personal life. Who

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Speaker 5: has been the biggest problem, in my opinion, to holding

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Speaker 5: him back? It was his father. His father was a

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Speaker 5: very overbearing presence in a lot of these situations. Where

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Speaker 5: was his father when he won the PGA Championship. His

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Speaker 5: father's in Hawaii, nowhere near the facility. So if the

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Speaker 5: statistical outputs are putting him closer to Scotti Schffler in

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Speaker 5: the field. I made this argument on a show yesterday.

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Speaker 5: Give him a victory, any victory this year, and I

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Speaker 5: understand your argument. He did not have victories outside of

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Speaker 5: the PGA Championship, But give him any victory, He's eight

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Speaker 5: or nine to one to win this tournament. And if

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Speaker 5: you make it one of the headline ones of the

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Speaker 5: Players Championship, I really think it's seven or eight to one.

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Speaker 5: This disparity difference between Scheffler and Shoftley, in my eyes,

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Speaker 5: is not as stark of a difference here as the

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Speaker 5: general public is leading people to believe. I've always been

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Speaker 5: under this mentality that look, I wrote this in an

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Speaker 5: Action Network article the night that the night before Xander won.

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Speaker 5: But you are labeled as a golfer who cannot get

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Speaker 5: the job done until you actually get across the finish line.

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Speaker 5: And who are the players historically who have been the

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Speaker 5: closest in these spots. It's the Fleetwoods, it's the Fenales,

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Speaker 5: it's the Xanders. These are the names that aren't getting

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Speaker 5: across the finish line, and it becomes a stink that

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Speaker 5: gets put on them in the eyes of the general public.

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Speaker 5: Can like, I'm always going to run things from a

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Speaker 5: data driven perspective, and if there's a golfer that's going

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Speaker 5: to be pumping out the statistics the way that I

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Speaker 5: want them to be in it, Xander's fitting the entire

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Speaker 5: bill of what I want there. I understand your sentiment that,

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Speaker 5: like you're buying into a price now that might seem

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Speaker 5: gross on the surface, but I don't know, Pat, I

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Speaker 5: really like Xander this week.

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Speaker 4: Who's the last guy to win back to back majors?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I would assume it's Tiger.

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Speaker 4: Speith in twenty fifteen.

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Speaker 1: Chambers Bay and uh in the Mask, So.

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Speaker 4: It's been a decade. I just don't see Xander being

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Speaker 4: that guy to it back to back majors.

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Speaker 6: Like there's a especially at this price now you want

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Speaker 6: to make aim twenty five to one, Sure, I'll line

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Speaker 6: up and bet Xander with you. I do think he

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Speaker 6: has a good chance of winning. Does he have a

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Speaker 6: ten percent chance of winning this field? That is, I

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Speaker 6: guess he's eleven to one.

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Speaker 4: So does he have a nine nine percent chance of

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Speaker 4: winning in this field?

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Speaker 6: I don't think so, because I think there's a lot

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Speaker 6: of randomness that goes on with this course as well.

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Speaker 4: Can he navigate that shirt?

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Speaker 6: You think great, pat us opens to come inside the

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Speaker 6: top ten and not necessarily win. Maybe you're right in

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Speaker 6: the floodgates of open he becomes that guy. But I

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Speaker 6: would find it kind of crazy that he finally gets

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Speaker 6: over the hump, and then all of a sudden he's

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Speaker 6: just a prolific major winner.

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Speaker 4: Could he get another Yes?

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Speaker 6: Could it be the open at Trum, Sure, but this

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Speaker 6: soon seems like a stretch to me.

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Speaker 5: The randomness of the course is the exact reason why

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Speaker 5: the Scheffler price is a problem too correct.

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Speaker 6: And that's why I like these twenty plus forty plus

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Speaker 6: sixty plus similarly talented because I did the same thing

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Speaker 6: that you did when I looked at some of my

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Speaker 6: bets this week. Here, what is the one skiel that

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Speaker 6: these guys have that they could actually beat everyone else

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Speaker 6: in the field at And would that be enough to

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Speaker 6: actually win this week?

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Speaker 4: And I do think you can find a lot of

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Speaker 4: guys down the board who do that.

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Speaker 2: Okay, let's get into it then, So you're not into

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Speaker 2: you mentioned your how you would use your bank roll

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Speaker 2: if it was to back Scotti, Scheffler, Pat Mayo, guys

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Speaker 2: in your eyes that do have the appropriate price point

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Speaker 2: to take a stab.

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Speaker 6: At Brooks number one. It's a US Open. There's a

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Speaker 6: number two in front of the Brooks Kopka number. He's

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Speaker 6: coming off, Hey, listen, he just shot a seven under

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Speaker 6: Sunday on Live Tour. Just because you didn't know that

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Speaker 6: happened doesn't mean it actually didn't happen.

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Speaker 4: It happened.

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Speaker 6: And this is the best US Open player of our generation,

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Speaker 6: better than Tiger Woods, even on an upside level in

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Speaker 6: these events. This one's a little bit different in terms

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Speaker 6: of the layout of Brooks was fourth here a decade

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Speaker 6: ago before he was Brooks Kopka. He's going to drive

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Speaker 6: it straight, He's going to hit his irons high. And

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Speaker 6: the biggest thing at this tournament is but Brooks. The

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Speaker 6: distance control for Scotty is one thing. It's very Tiger

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Speaker 6: esque where he can just hit the ball whole high

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Speaker 6: every single time. What you see Brooks do at these

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Speaker 6: difficult both US Opens and PGA Championships is monitors ballflight

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Speaker 6: and never get sucked into hitting it at the pin.

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Speaker 6: There's so many guys in this field who need to

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Speaker 6: have it seven feet from the cup in order to

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Speaker 6: make a birdie.

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Speaker 4: Brooks doesn't.

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Speaker 6: When you go back and watch Brooks majors at difficult courses,

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Speaker 6: he just hits the ball to twenty feet and he

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Speaker 6: just makes three of those pots around. Because he's an

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Speaker 6: excellent putter, he can get the ball up and down

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Speaker 6: no problem. He has the most complete game for a

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Speaker 6: US Open.

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Speaker 4: And if there's.

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Speaker 6: Anyone at the top of this board who, if in contention,

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Speaker 6: will keep it together, be stoic and not make that

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Speaker 6: stupid mistake, I think it's Brooks.

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Speaker 5: Pat Can I ask you a question of the live goals,

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Speaker 5: no of the live golfers are Is there anybody else

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Speaker 5: that you like outside of Brooks?

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Speaker 4: I like Cam.

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Speaker 5: I bet on Cam to me, I think there is

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Speaker 5: a difference between Brooks and everybody else. Brooks was the

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Speaker 5: most elite name in this field for all the reasons

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Speaker 5: that you've talked about.

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Speaker 1: We'll leave it at that.

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Speaker 5: I think Brooks is a very intriguing play as that

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Speaker 5: price continues to drift in the market.

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Speaker 6: I think Bryson's interesting because I think Bryson's engage. I

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Speaker 6: just don't know he d lofted as seven irons. I

289
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Speaker 6: don't know why he's doing that when you really want

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Speaker 6: to hit the ball higher, and he'll still hit the

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Speaker 6: ball higher the most people, even with a d lofted club,

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Speaker 6: because he'll be hitting a seven iron two hundred and

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Speaker 6: twenty yards while other guys are hitting five iron. So naturally,

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Speaker 6: it's going to be fine for Bryson. I just worry

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00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:11,280
Speaker 6: that he's going to come in with a strategy and

296
00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:12,839
Speaker 6: he's going to stick to it and that's worked out

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00:13:12,880 --> 00:13:15,440
Speaker 6: really well for him sometimes and it's worked out really

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Speaker 6: poorly for him sometimes.

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Speaker 4: I could see this one being one that doesn't work

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Speaker 4: out so.

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00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:24,480
Speaker 2: Great, Spencer, when you use your course breakdown, how does

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00:13:24,520 --> 00:13:26,400
Speaker 2: that factory to some of the guys towards the top

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00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:29,480
Speaker 2: of the board, because you were you're very particular about

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Speaker 2: how that might fit your model.

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00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:34,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, if we look at some of the statistical data here,

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00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:35,600
Speaker 5: it's this is Donald Ross.

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Speaker 1: Course.

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00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:38,920
Speaker 5: Ross is always known for these really challenging and unique

309
00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:41,800
Speaker 5: around the green complexes. A lot of times that veers

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Speaker 5: away from the standard expectations of what we see on

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00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:45,400
Speaker 5: the PGA tour weekly.

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00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:47,360
Speaker 1: That's going to be no different here.

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00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:49,680
Speaker 5: You have these turtle shell greens that have the propensity

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Speaker 5: to repel shots entirely off the surface that can be

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00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:54,120
Speaker 5: up to thirty yards away from the hole, it can

316
00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:57,199
Speaker 5: move into traps, these tight lies. All of that adds

317
00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:01,200
Speaker 5: a headache to the construction. All that would be challenging

318
00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:03,720
Speaker 5: on its own to try introverse because of the complexity

319
00:14:03,720 --> 00:14:06,640
Speaker 5: of the trap, but the track here, but what we

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00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:08,640
Speaker 5: end up getting, And this is how I built my

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00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:11,520
Speaker 5: model into this very heavy weight over and over again,

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Speaker 5: even if I did decrease.

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Speaker 1: It ever so slightly in strokes gain approaches.

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Speaker 5: I keep talking about these excessive number of shots from

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Speaker 5: one hundred and seventy five plus yards into these fiery

326
00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:25,480
Speaker 5: fast screens. I wanted high apex ball flights, and I

327
00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:28,160
Speaker 5: wanted golfers and Pat talked about this a little bit

328
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Speaker 5: when he was talking about the volatility and the unpredictability

329
00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:35,160
Speaker 5: of the course. You have a really fast and firm

330
00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:38,160
Speaker 5: condition of when you do have a driver in hand,

331
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Speaker 5: and it's gonna move shots into sandy areas, into what

332
00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:44,960
Speaker 5: they call wire grass and gorse bushes. I do think

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00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:47,240
Speaker 5: that means accuracy off the tea will be a little

334
00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:50,480
Speaker 5: bit more important than distance. I would say that this

335
00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:53,560
Speaker 5: is a very standard US Open tests yearly. We probably

336
00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:57,120
Speaker 5: didn't get quite as much of that last year at LACC.

337
00:14:57,760 --> 00:15:00,680
Speaker 5: But when I'm looking at the outright and trying to

338
00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,080
Speaker 5: figure out a way to build my card, and you know,

339
00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:04,960
Speaker 5: I did go to the very top with Zander.

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Speaker 1: We've had that discussion.

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00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:08,760
Speaker 5: I thought a really nice middling point if you're trying

342
00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,600
Speaker 5: to find one of those middle tiered players, was Hideki

343
00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:15,000
Speaker 5: Matsiyama when he opened at fifty five to one. That's

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00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:17,080
Speaker 5: a statistical darling.

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Speaker 1: If you're going to run a model.

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00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:20,600
Speaker 5: And then if I'm trying to find a long shot,

347
00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:21,960
Speaker 5: and this is what I did.

348
00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:22,880
Speaker 1: I think the last.

349
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Speaker 5: Time we did a show together Brendan was at the

350
00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:28,400
Speaker 5: US Open last year, where I had Wyndham Clark at

351
00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:31,680
Speaker 5: one hundred to one. You're trying to find a specific

352
00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:35,360
Speaker 5: skill set of why does this player overachieve their baseline

353
00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:39,400
Speaker 5: projection on the given track that's being used, and that

354
00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,360
Speaker 5: is how you end up landing in these positions where

355
00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:44,960
Speaker 5: you can get players that overachieve based off of their

356
00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:48,200
Speaker 5: baseline projection. Wyndham did that last year top ten of

357
00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:50,560
Speaker 5: my model for weight to strokes gain, total expected scoring,

358
00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,600
Speaker 5: firm conditions, projected scoring on fast tracks, like all of

359
00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:55,080
Speaker 5: those things hit for him.

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00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:56,440
Speaker 1: I think I gave this.

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00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:59,080
Speaker 5: Exact answer, and Matt Mitchell even commented on it after

362
00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:01,800
Speaker 5: the fact on it, but I gave something along the

363
00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:04,600
Speaker 5: lines of like you're asking for him to do something

364
00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,240
Speaker 5: that he's never done in his career to get the victory,

365
00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:10,200
Speaker 5: and Wyndham was able to do that. There is a

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Speaker 5: golfer for me in this field. And I know he

367
00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:15,920
Speaker 5: doesn't necessarily have that pedigree, because at least Wyndham had

368
00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:19,400
Speaker 5: that victory at the Wells Fargo Championship. But I really

369
00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:22,040
Speaker 5: like minwou Lee in the same vein of why I

370
00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:25,680
Speaker 5: liked Wyndham Clark last year, there were a few extremely

371
00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:29,200
Speaker 5: robust returns for me here at Pinehurst that resembled what

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00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:31,720
Speaker 5: I saw from Clark. He grated fifth in this field

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00:16:31,760 --> 00:16:34,640
Speaker 5: when combining long iron proximity plus around the green production.

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00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:36,880
Speaker 5: Those are the two stats I keep going back to

375
00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:40,440
Speaker 5: third for expected total driving and then fifth for weighted

376
00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:43,720
Speaker 5: strokes ganging total. That last stat of landing fifth for

377
00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:46,400
Speaker 5: weighted strokes ganging total is the fun one that starts

378
00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:49,440
Speaker 5: to mimic Clark's seventh place grade in twenty twenty three.

379
00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:53,040
Speaker 5: I keep talking about overachieving your baseline. Clark was twenty

380
00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:56,400
Speaker 5: spots above his baseline last year. Minwu Lee is thirty

381
00:16:56,520 --> 00:17:00,840
Speaker 5: four spots above his here specifically at Pinehurst. So you

382
00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:03,600
Speaker 5: know there are options. This is not and this is

383
00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:07,240
Speaker 5: where Pat's correct. This is not just the foregone conclusion,

384
00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:10,520
Speaker 5: Scotty Scheffler is going to guarantee to win this event.

385
00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:13,120
Speaker 5: It's still hard to win a golf tournament. It's hard

386
00:17:13,119 --> 00:17:15,119
Speaker 5: to win one hundred and fifty six man field, and

387
00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:17,359
Speaker 5: it's hard to win a course that's gonna have volatility

388
00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:20,480
Speaker 5: where one or two bad shots can change the complete

389
00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:24,560
Speaker 5: complexion of this event. So there are opportunities down this

390
00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:26,199
Speaker 5: board to take a few shots.

391
00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:29,520
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, weather looks picture perfect for the weekend too

392
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,439
Speaker 2: at Pinehurst, so that's something to think about to an

393
00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:35,159
Speaker 2: extremely dried out course could be the case this weekend

394
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:38,800
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418
00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:45,560
Speaker 2: then will work our way to long shots.

419
00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:47,920
Speaker 3: Pat Mayo. Anything emerged to you from a head to

420
00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:49,000
Speaker 3: head standpoint.

421
00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:51,040
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm taking the guy that is finished inside the

422
00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:53,520
Speaker 6: top four in each of his past three starts, is

423
00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:55,639
Speaker 6: finished inside the top five of each of the majors

424
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:57,320
Speaker 6: so far this season. A guy I bet on to

425
00:18:57,400 --> 00:19:00,680
Speaker 6: win this tournament, and he's against Xander Schaff and he's

426
00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:04,840
Speaker 6: an underdog. Xander, despite his great run that he's currently on,

427
00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:08,919
Speaker 6: including a major championship, has lost to Colin Morikawa in

428
00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:12,359
Speaker 6: four of his past six starts. So you can find

429
00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:16,119
Speaker 6: Colin Morikawa over Xander Shaffley at plus one ten right

430
00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:17,520
Speaker 6: now across the market.

431
00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:19,160
Speaker 4: So that's where I would be going.

432
00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:22,240
Speaker 2: Well, the Xander slamming continues.

433
00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:24,840
Speaker 4: I mean, he just doesn't beat Morikawa.

434
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:27,320
Speaker 2: A percentage four out of six to sixty.

435
00:19:27,080 --> 00:19:28,600
Speaker 4: Six to sixty seven percent winner.

436
00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:31,480
Speaker 6: And you're getting juiced up odds one hundred, Hey, is

437
00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:33,960
Speaker 6: one hundred and ten bucks on that, not even just

438
00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:35,920
Speaker 6: your money back in terms of the bet that you

439
00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:38,639
Speaker 6: wager you have to And they's chew so badly to

440
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:40,960
Speaker 6: the other side because people are in love with Xander

441
00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:43,600
Speaker 6: that it's mix one forty and these guys are so

442
00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,240
Speaker 6: close right now because all of a sudden, And I

443
00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 6: mean what Spencer said is true, because it sometimes it

444
00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:50,679
Speaker 6: depends on what you look at. When people do data modeling,

445
00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,199
Speaker 6: there's different ways to do that. So Spencer's using a

446
00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:56,800
Speaker 6: two year running average and that should probably actually make.

447
00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,400
Speaker 4: Morikawa a little bit better than.

448
00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:01,120
Speaker 6: If you had used let's say the past six months

449
00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:04,080
Speaker 6: or so, because his iron play had been so bad. However,

450
00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:07,000
Speaker 6: over the past three starts for Morikawa, the former best

451
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 6: iron player in the world, has not quite rediscovered everything

452
00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:13,520
Speaker 6: that he's done with his irons in terms of gaining

453
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,320
Speaker 6: eight strokes a tournament nine strokes a tournament. However, he's

454
00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,680
Speaker 6: back to gaining four five per tournament, which is fine

455
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:20,640
Speaker 6: because you learned.

456
00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 4: How to chip and putt.

457
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 6: He doesn't actively chip and putt himself out of tournaments anymore,

458
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:25,879
Speaker 6: and that is exactly what you need to win a

459
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,480
Speaker 6: US Open. He has been my favorite guy this week.

460
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:30,320
Speaker 6: I think his odds are fifteen to one right now,

461
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:34,040
Speaker 6: but almost any site that you use will give you

462
00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:36,440
Speaker 6: a profit boost this week, and there is no better

463
00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:40,680
Speaker 6: place to use a profit boost than on a golf winner,

464
00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 6: especially someone somewhat.

465
00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:42,320
Speaker 4: Near the top.

466
00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:44,520
Speaker 6: So earlier in the week you were able to take him.

467
00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 6: I was able to take him up from seventeen to

468
00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:47,919
Speaker 6: one to twenty six to one. You can probably get

469
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:50,280
Speaker 6: him at least up to twenty four to twenty three

470
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 6: to one with Boosse at any place where you want

471
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 6: to play. So I would be going back to Morikawa outright,

472
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 6: And if I'm going to bet him outright, I'm gonna

473
00:20:57,760 --> 00:20:59,480
Speaker 6: bet him over Xander Shoffley.

474
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 3: Spencer head to head market that you're interested.

475
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:05,159
Speaker 5: In Christian Bezeyd and how minus one twenty over Adam Hadwin.

476
00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 1: That's so wager.

477
00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:09,639
Speaker 5: That's the epitome of the conversation I have frequently on

478
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 5: Links and Locks about how market over corrections are one

479
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 5: of the most significant leaks you can still take advantage

480
00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,119
Speaker 5: of weekly when trying to find value on the board.

481
00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:20,480
Speaker 5: That's going to include and we'll talk about this throughout

482
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:22,280
Speaker 5: the week as I write articles for Action, but the

483
00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:25,840
Speaker 5: in tournament wagers where options move way too heavily away

484
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:29,360
Speaker 5: from their pre event numbers. It's one of the reasons

485
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 5: my matchups have hit at over sixty percent over the

486
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:35,240
Speaker 5: last five hundred plays on the Thursday, Friday and Saturday plays.

487
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:37,560
Speaker 5: As I said, you can be sure to check those out, Brendan,

488
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 5: I'm not above a shameless plug there, but many of

489
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:44,240
Speaker 5: those sentiments also become highly relevant in these full tournament

490
00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:46,960
Speaker 5: matchups since you can get these price shifts away from

491
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 5: the long term projections that lead to the same outlook

492
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:54,199
Speaker 5: disparity that sometimes generates these skewed prices between golfers. My

493
00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:57,000
Speaker 5: model gradeed had Win one hundred and eighth in anticipated

494
00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,119
Speaker 5: strokes gain off the tea compared to the field. He

495
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:02,200
Speaker 5: also fell to six from his forty fifth place baseline.

496
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,159
Speaker 5: I'm looking into around the green projections a lot of

497
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 5: this boost. Of what we're getting here is his third

498
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,800
Speaker 5: place result at the Memorial. That was a very enticing

499
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:12,440
Speaker 5: price that has been on the move in the market.

500
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,679
Speaker 5: You're gonna have to shop around there. I wrote this

501
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 5: over at Rotoballer on Monday. On one of the sites

502
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:22,040
Speaker 5: we moved the number thirty points and that one twenty

503
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 5: is still available if you shop around.

504
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,880
Speaker 1: But the other one is min Wu Lee minus one.

505
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 5: Fourteen over steps Straka Straca was a golfer that I

506
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:33,119
Speaker 5: backed at the Memorial last week because of this recent

507
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 5: Ton top ten upside, But that disproportionate number of shots

508
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 5: from outside of one hundred and seventy five plus yards

509
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:44,400
Speaker 5: that I keep talking about hurt his profile more than

510
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,680
Speaker 5: most names in this field. My model ranked Straca eighty

511
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,680
Speaker 5: ninth when combining long iron proximity plus around the green,

512
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 5: seventy fifth for weighted bogie avoidance, eightieth for weighted scoring,

513
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 5: and then seventy fourth for expected strokes geting toll at

514
00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 5: Pinehurst number two if we want to have a DFS discussion,

515
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:04,160
Speaker 5: he's going to be the chalk of alt chalk there.

516
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 5: I tend to think that the price tag is kind

517
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 5: of fair, which is going to be I am much

518
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 5: lower than consensus for that reason, and I'm trying to

519
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,680
Speaker 5: find different ways to fade him. I wrote a Round

520
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 5: one article that you can find on Action, and this

521
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 5: is going back to the well with the Windom Clark

522
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,359
Speaker 5: thing that everybody wants no part of Wyndham. This week

523
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 5: I took Windom in round one over Straka. I think

524
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:28,880
Speaker 5: there's a lot of different ways that we can consider

525
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:32,639
Speaker 5: opposing him, and that's one of those situations where I

526
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,720
Speaker 5: don't think he's the market over correction answer that had

527
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 5: one would be because Straka does have a profile that's

528
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,120
Speaker 5: been trending positively in my model. But this is one

529
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:44,160
Speaker 5: of those situations where because he has the safety built

530
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:47,680
Speaker 5: into the profile of what he's done recently, a lot

531
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 5: of this is being overblown on the odds board here

532
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,880
Speaker 5: at a course I don't necessarily think fits his game perfectly.

533
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,200
Speaker 6: Funny, you mentioned Sabstraca, I wouldn't play that min Wu

534
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 6: against him only because min Wu doesn't right out very

535
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,920
Speaker 6: well for me either. It's starting to get a little

536
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 6: bit better. But his horrendous start to the season and

537
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 6: where he was so smoking mirrors towards the earlier part

538
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:11,920
Speaker 6: of last year when he was having so much success

539
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:15,119
Speaker 6: based primarily off his chipping and his putting, and then

540
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 6: the irons just never really came around. They do seem

541
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:18,639
Speaker 6: like they're coming around a little bit right now. He

542
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 6: just hasn't been able to hit that upside elsewhere. Maybe

543
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,359
Speaker 6: baked out, sand infused courses, that's where you'd want to go.

544
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 6: But my short term modeling, and I think about power

545
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 6: rankings for this week, Sebstraca comes in at fifth. This

546
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 6: is what happens when you have four top tens in

547
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 6: your past five starts. Is only miss cut PGA Championship,

548
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 6: the last major that we had. However, in the course

549
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:41,159
Speaker 6: fit rankings that I do, he is one hundred and

550
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:43,919
Speaker 6: third in this field. So my numbers are telling me

551
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 6: exactly the same things that Spencer's are. And I think

552
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 6: the way that you want to play this if you

553
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 6: can shop around for the best number. Plus one sixty

554
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 6: three I think is the best number on the market

555
00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,439
Speaker 6: right now. Let me confirm that we can wager on

556
00:24:56,480 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 6: Sebstraca to miss the cut, we will get Yeah. US

557
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:03,439
Speaker 6: one sixty seven at bet MGM is the best number

558
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,640
Speaker 6: on the market right now. I think that's the way

559
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 6: that you want to try to take advantage of this.

560
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 6: This is the hardest cut in golf to make, one of.

561
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,399
Speaker 2: The hardest courses to play, the hardest tournaments to play.

562
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 3: Period.

563
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 2: Let's go to long shots, Pat Mayo, why don't you

564
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:18,880
Speaker 2: get to start at please?

565
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 6: I mean, my long shot is the fact that you

566
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,439
Speaker 6: have developed this crazy announcer's.

567
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:25,719
Speaker 4: Voice over the past five years. It is unbelievable.

568
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,120
Speaker 6: You don't sound like the same person, Clash, I've grown

569
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 6: up a little bit, Pat, You're.

570
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 4: Not the same age as me.

571
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 6: You sound like I mean, you do the play by

572
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 6: play for all of these teams, so I would expect

573
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:37,600
Speaker 6: to tune into a game and here's someone.

574
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 4: Like you talking with that voice.

575
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 6: But it's just it's shocking to me to hear it

576
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 6: at this point.

577
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 4: But what happened to lose fun? Guy? Now you're like

578
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 4: super serious voice.

579
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 5: Matt.

580
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:48,439
Speaker 2: I'm just trying to keep the train on the tracks.

581
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 4: So yeah, I mean, you invited me. How was that

582
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 4: ever gonna happen.

583
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:54,120
Speaker 2: Should have known better when I knew you were coming

584
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:54,880
Speaker 2: on this podcast.

585
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:57,199
Speaker 1: He's been the talk of the course today with his

586
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 1: amazingly bizarre behavior shot.

587
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 4: So it depends on how long you want to get

588
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:03,239
Speaker 4: leave it at that.

589
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 6: Cam Smith and Hideki Matciama are two that I am

590
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 6: going with from that and what I would consider mid tier.

591
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:11,480
Speaker 6: I think that anyone who doesn't bet on golf normally

592
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,120
Speaker 6: would consider forty to one and fifty five to one

593
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 6: to be pretty large bets. But in golf it's kind

594
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,440
Speaker 6: of in that middle range. But the reason that I'm

595
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 6: doing that is because I like to play a lot

596
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:23,719
Speaker 6: of bets with placements, which means that is two bets

597
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 6: for those keep a track at home or who are

598
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,200
Speaker 6: interested in that, meaning that if I bet one hundred

599
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:31,719
Speaker 6: dollars on let's just call it, make it something very easy.

600
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 6: Let's yeah, let's use Camsmith as an example. Forty to

601
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 6: one on Camsmith, I wager one hundred dollars. Fifty of

602
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:40,280
Speaker 6: those dollars goes to his outright win at forty to one,

603
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:43,640
Speaker 6: which would return two thousand dollars. Another fifty dollars would

604
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 6: go to whatever his placement is. And there's a myriad

605
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:48,439
Speaker 6: of different ways that you can make placements. You can

606
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 6: play a top three, at top five, at top eight,

607
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 6: at top twelve, whatever it might be. I took eight places,

608
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 6: so fifty of my dollars goes towards a top eight

609
00:26:56,840 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 6: finish as well at one fifth the So you do

610
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 6: the quick math on that was that eighth, So you'd

611
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 6: have eight to one for a top eight finish at fifty.

612
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 4: So you're looking at what four hundred bucks on that? No,

613
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 4: do I have that right?

614
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 5: Yeah?

615
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 6: So four hundred bucks on that if he comes inside

616
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 6: the top eight. It's a great way that if you

617
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:17,640
Speaker 6: really do that, if you want to have that upside

618
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 6: of a winning golfer.

619
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:20,560
Speaker 4: Now, if they hit both, you win twenty four hundred bucks.

620
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 4: Just keep that in mind.

621
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 6: But it's a nice way to try to return some

622
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 6: of your profits for your outright stakes. If Scheffler goes

623
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:29,919
Speaker 6: and beats the crap out of everyone this week. So

624
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 6: I did the same thing with cam Smith the eight places.

625
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 6: I did the same thing with Hindeki, so an even

626
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 6: a larger payout. He's eleven point twenty five to one

627
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,399
Speaker 6: to come inside the top eight along with his fifty

628
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 6: five to one. There's no better player at US Opens

629
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:43,920
Speaker 6: in terms of strokes gained approach over the past five

630
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,600
Speaker 6: years than Hideki. He had only played twice the Masters

631
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 6: of PGA Championship until last week over the past two

632
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 6: and a half months, and he looked good last week.

633
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,640
Speaker 6: He looked like the Hideki who was the second best

634
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 6: player in the world ra Leased on the PGA Tour

635
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 6: two Scottie Scheffler earlier this season before he had his

636
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 6: weird neck injury and just kind of disappeared back to

637
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 6: Japan for a while. Now he's back and ready to

638
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 6: at least try to try to make us some money

639
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 6: at the US Open. Now we can keep going down

640
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 6: real long shots. See what Kim one hundred to one,

641
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 6: eight places, Bazeiden out who Spencer mentioned already one hundred

642
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 6: and ten to one with eight places.

643
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 4: So those be the six out is going with.

644
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:19,959
Speaker 6: And if you really want to get freaky, you can

645
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 6: take yourself from Taylor more three hundred to one and

646
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 6: you can play that with twelve places if you want to.

647
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:27,359
Speaker 6: And all of these pay one fifth in terms of

648
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:29,440
Speaker 6: the placement along with the outright wins.

649
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 4: So I know it's a bit complicated.

650
00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:33,919
Speaker 6: For people who don't play golf normally, but in tournaments

651
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 6: like this, it's a great way to get your money

652
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 6: because every single sports book out there is going to increase.

653
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 6: Usually is a top five or a top six where

654
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 6: you get your placement at major championships. It's eight places

655
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 6: or ten places for exactly the same price. The way

656
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 6: I would try to think about it is, you can

657
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 6: play a top.

658
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 4: Eight right now.

659
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 6: We can use that Cam Smith one again, so you

660
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 6: have to bet them to win outright at forty to one,

661
00:28:57,120 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 6: but you get eight to one for a top eight

662
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 6: finish to bet Cam Smith at top ten at the moment.

663
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 6: This is the way that I like to think about

664
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 6: it and why I think that the placement bet is

665
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 6: better that if we go to the top finishes and

666
00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 6: we look at top ten odds for Cam Smith, Camsmith's

667
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 6: top ten odds are plus three seventy five. So if

668
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 6: I wager one hundred dollars on Cameron Smith to come

669
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 6: inside the top ten, I win three hundred and fifty dollars.

670
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:25,960
Speaker 6: If I wager one hundred dollars fifty on his win

671
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 6: and fifty on his top eight, I have the potential

672
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 6: to win twenty four hundred dollars. However, if he just

673
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 6: comes inside the top eight, you give up two placement points,

674
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 6: but you win four hundred dollars on top of that.

675
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 6: So it's a basically you give up two points for

676
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 6: better odds on a top ten with all of the

677
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 6: upside of a player winning.

678
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 4: That would be the best way that I can try

679
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 4: to simp.

680
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 6: Did you get that clash? I don't know if you're

681
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 6: into each way betting or not. Does that make sense

682
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 6: to you?

683
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 2: Yeah?

684
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 3: I wish I had a pen.

685
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 2: But that's why I'll go back and listen and stop,

686
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 2: you know, pause, begin, pause, begin.

687
00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 6: So people ask me all the time if you just

688
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 6: google each way betting golf, it has, like the Wikipedia description,

689
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 6: much more concise than what I just laid out. But

690
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:06,240
Speaker 6: I wanted to give you the reason why. I think,

691
00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:10,440
Speaker 6: especially during major seasons, sportsbooks won't give you better odds

692
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 6: on a lot of these things, and finding little niches

693
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 6: like this in the golf market or where you want

694
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 6: to go, like it didn't happen this time around, but

695
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 6: there are some weird head to heads out.

696
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 4: There from like the Masters.

697
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 6: I think it was like Herman versus Akshay in a

698
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 6: head to head, but they were also facing each other

699
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:29,760
Speaker 6: in the top left handed player market, and the odds

700
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 6: were just completely different. So if you found the market

701
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 6: that you liked better just by clicking through everything, you

702
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 6: got to spend a little bit of time searching around.

703
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 6: But sometimes you can find odds that are at odds

704
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 6: with one another, and if there's one side that you

705
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 6: really like, you can get better odds on that. Because

706
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 6: they just offer every sportsbook offers so many bets during

707
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:49,160
Speaker 6: major weeks that they just can't keep track of them.

708
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:53,520
Speaker 2: All excellent pat, all kidding aside, that's good stuff and

709
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 2: good advice I think for folks that might be tuning

710
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 2: in and just are interested in these major championships to

711
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 2: get involved in. This podcast is presented by bet mgm

712
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 2: us bonus code action when signing up to get up

713
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 2: to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your

714
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 2: first bet does not win.

715
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 3: For new users in Arizona.

716
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 2: Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey,

717
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 2: North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming,

718
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 2: terms and conditions apply must be twenty one plus gambling

719
00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:28,920
Speaker 2: problem called one eight hundred gambler spencer long shots for

720
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 2: you that you're in.

721
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 5: I mean, it's probably the two that I've talked about

722
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,560
Speaker 5: so far. I agree with everything of what Pat said

723
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 5: with Hideki Matciyama. You look at what he's done with

724
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 5: his approach play at the US Open. He is consistently

725
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 5: gaining five plus strokes to the field with that area

726
00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 5: of his game. You add that to being one of

727
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 5: the best around the green players in the world. This

728
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 5: course plays very well for him. He had an increase

729
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 5: in projected production in off the tea. It wasn't a

730
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 5: massive total, but it was enough to really move him

731
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:57,719
Speaker 5: into being a value.

732
00:31:57,920 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 1: I talked about Min wou Lee.

733
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 5: Already, and then I always run my model to just

734
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 5: try to figure out what players in the field grade

735
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 5: inside a certain percentage. So for me this week, what

736
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 5: players graded inside of the top fifty of every single

737
00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 5: category that I ran, And there were four of the

738
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 5: fifteen players that ended up doing that. That if you

739
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 5: search around on the odds board, some of these I

740
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:23,200
Speaker 5: like more than others, and we've seen some movement around

741
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 5: some of these prices. But there were four of them

742
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 5: that are eighty or above on the odds slate, so

743
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 5: that was ben On. Ben On On has been a

744
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 5: very sharp mover this week. Sung JM. Minwo Lee Hat

745
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 5: talked about Seawu Kim. I always can get behind a

746
00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 5: little Sea Wu Kim action.

747
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 6: Do you think that might just be that a lot

748
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 6: of these shart betters are in South Korea?

749
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 1: I mean, it sounds like that.

750
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 5: I guess at least a lot of it might be

751
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 5: a lot of the big money bets that are coming in,

752
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 5: and maybe it's not even sharp based off of that.

753
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 5: It's like the big whales that are just coming in

754
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 5: and you see it in the local Bacca Rock games

755
00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 5: and Las Vegas. You go there and you just have

756
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 5: millions of dollars on the table.

757
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:06,440
Speaker 6: It's funny, like I mean, I bet on sea Wu,

758
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 6: but Sea Wu and min Wu have suffered from very

759
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 6: similar fates this year that they I mean Seawow especially

760
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 6: Ken not putt, which is a real problem.

761
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 4: But I bet on him anyway, just in case it's

762
00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 4: the one week he does putt.

763
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:19,719
Speaker 6: Because the rest of his game, if you just took

764
00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 6: putting out of the equation spencer, how highly up do

765
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 6: you think that Seawo would rate top ten top five.

766
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 5: Even adding putting to the equation. For me, he is

767
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 5: right around the top twenty. When you ran this from

768
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 5: a statistical perspective, he's a top fifteen win equity candidate.

769
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 5: That's including a pretty decent amount of putting in my model.

770
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 5: So the ball striking would put him inside of the

771
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 5: top ten one hundred percent.

772
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:44,480
Speaker 4: And think about Glash.

773
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 6: You know this because I know you know so much

774
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 6: about Sea Wu Kim, but played Donald Ross courses very

775
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 6: well throughout the course of his career, played Pete Die

776
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 6: courses very well throughout the course of his career. The

777
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 6: only place where he has won in his five wins

778
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 6: that actually has rough built up around the green was

779
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 6: at a Donald Ross course at the Wyndham Championship. Everywhere

780
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 6: else where he's played his best golf has all of

781
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:08,799
Speaker 6: these runoff areas, just like you have at Pinehurst. So

782
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 6: I would expect his around the green to be very

783
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 6: good this week. So if you can just chip it

784
00:34:13,560 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 6: closer than everyone else, then hell, maybe he could make

785
00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:16,319
Speaker 6: a four foot putt.

786
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:17,959
Speaker 4: I wouldn't. I mean, I am betting on.

787
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:19,720
Speaker 6: The fact that he could win make a four foot putt,

788
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:21,280
Speaker 6: but it might not be a great bet.

789
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 4: We'll see.

790
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:25,239
Speaker 5: I have a weighted tee to green outlook in my

791
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 5: model that's geared specifically towards Pinehurst, So that would be

792
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:31,759
Speaker 5: removing putting from the equation, and it's only taking off

793
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:33,799
Speaker 5: the tea approaching around the green there. It's not taking

794
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:36,760
Speaker 5: all the other categories that would matter. But number one Scotty,

795
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 5: number two, Hitdeci, number three Seawoo Kim, So that kind

796
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 5: of shows where Seawoo's at if you could just ever

797
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:43,880
Speaker 5: make a putt.

798
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 6: So I ran a very similar type of thing just Verus,

799
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 6: just for Pinehurst specifically, and while it doesn't have Piting

800
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 6: isolated in it, it does have stats that include putting

801
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 6: just at different styles of courses, you know, firm and fast,

802
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 6: difficult to hold greens, super fast greens, like, all of

803
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:03,880
Speaker 6: that's going to come into play even when you do

804
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 6: scrambling percentage or strokes game total, hutting is going to

805
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 6: be a factor in that.

806
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:10,759
Speaker 4: So it did hurt Sewu a little bit, but he.

807
00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 6: Ended up rating out seventh of every player in this field,

808
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 6: with Scotti, Xander Fleetwood, Hideki Rory being the top five

809
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 6: and then Dustin Johnson.

810
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:23,719
Speaker 5: My model like Dustin Johnson also, and maybe that's some

811
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:26,439
Speaker 5: of the Fantasy National stuff that I pulled, So shout

812
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 5: out to Fantasy National there.

813
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:30,719
Speaker 1: But Dustin grated with all of my model.

814
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,360
Speaker 5: And you think of where Dustin has always found success,

815
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 5: it's at these prototypical US Open type venues. I don't

816
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:39,840
Speaker 5: know where his game is specifically at right now compared

817
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:41,200
Speaker 5: to some of those other iterations.

818
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 1: But the math did like him. On my end too, It's.

819
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 6: Really strange because he I mean, he missed, he was

820
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 6: I think that the Masters just really sticks out in

821
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 6: people's mind that he had a bad Open Championship. Sure,

822
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 6: but he was especially bad at the Masters. He was

823
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 6: okay at the PGA Championship. He was top ten at

824
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,239
Speaker 6: the US Open last year. So I think in the

825
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 6: short term it looks really bad. Obviously he's a prolific

826
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 6: US Open player over the years, the amount of top tens,

827
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 6: the win that he had.

828
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:10,960
Speaker 4: I guess he was in.

829
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:13,799
Speaker 6: Twenty seventeen now sixteen, yeh two thousand and sixteen because

830
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 6: he lost. He came in second two speed at Chambers

831
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 6: ban and then won the next year, outlasting Shane Lowry

832
00:36:18,640 --> 00:36:22,960
Speaker 6: in twenty sixteen at Oakmont. But I just worry that

833
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 6: he retired from golf a year and a half ago

834
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:25,720
Speaker 6: and just didn't tell anyone.

835
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 3: All right, let's.

836
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 2: Wrap this up. Let's do some outrights, then we'll get

837
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:34,400
Speaker 2: out of here. Pat Mayo, some outrights, best bets.

838
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:35,359
Speaker 3: Final bets, we'll get out of here.

839
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:35,840
Speaker 4: Okay.

840
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 6: So the sixth I'm going with, we'll call Mayo six.

841
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:39,719
Speaker 6: And if you need to know more about this, and

842
00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 6: you listen to this in time, I'm gonna be live

843
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 6: on the Mayo Media Network YouTube channel at eight pm

844
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:46,439
Speaker 6: Eastern time.

845
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:47,400
Speaker 4: On YouTube.

846
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,759
Speaker 6: You follow me at the pme on x formerly known

847
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:52,359
Speaker 6: as the twitters, and you will find the direct link there.

848
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 6: But if you're looking for it and you have questions,

849
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 6: you can come to me. I'll probably yell at you

850
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:59,279
Speaker 6: through the camera, but that's okay, not I can't. I

851
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 6: can't physically hurt you. Has yelling be emotionally hurt? You

852
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 6: still yell at people. That's still your I still your strategy.

853
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:10,320
Speaker 6: If people come on to my chat and ask stupid questions,

854
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 6: they get launched immediately.

855
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:15,800
Speaker 3: Do you block people still on YouTube?

856
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 4: Oh?

857
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:18,759
Speaker 6: Yeah, you know what people love when they're watching me

858
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:22,280
Speaker 6: yelling at, not them.

859
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 3: It's true.

860
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:24,919
Speaker 2: If you're not the one being yelled at, it can't

861
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:25,800
Speaker 2: be quite entertaining.

862
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 4: Don't ask the stupid question.

863
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:29,920
Speaker 6: Don't be afraid to ask a stupid question because it

864
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:32,440
Speaker 6: will create great entertainment for my show. The sixth that

865
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:35,399
Speaker 6: I'm going with this week, which I'll actually add up

866
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 6: to be less than what I would have to wager

867
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:39,960
Speaker 6: on Scottie Scheffler to win the same amount of money,

868
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 6: which is crazy to think about.

869
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:44,239
Speaker 4: Colin Morikawa. You can bet him at seventeen to one.

870
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:45,719
Speaker 6: I used a boost on him to get him up

871
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 6: to twenty six to one, but I would still bet

872
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:49,799
Speaker 6: him at seventeen if that was the case. I think

873
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 6: that he's going to win this week. Brooks Kopka twenty

874
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:54,399
Speaker 6: five to one, still lingering out there twenty in most

875
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 6: spots you can find at twenty five Love Brooks cam

876
00:37:57,200 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 6: Smith forty to one with the eight places that I

877
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:02,520
Speaker 6: talked about, Hideki Matsuyama fifty five to one with the

878
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 6: eight places that I talked about, Ditto eight places with

879
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 6: the Sea, Wu Kim at one hundred to one and

880
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 6: Christian Bizeidenhut at one hundred and ten to one, and

881
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:11,920
Speaker 6: I said, if you want to get real crazy, Taylor

882
00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:14,759
Speaker 6: Moore is out there at three hundred to one, You've

883
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 6: probably never heard of him, and frankly at three hundred

884
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:18,240
Speaker 6: to one, you probably never will.

885
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:20,600
Speaker 4: But what if he wins three hundred to one Spencer,

886
00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 4: Wouldn't that be great?

887
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 1: That's the dream, all right?

888
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:25,760
Speaker 4: Twenty to both majors?

889
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:30,320
Speaker 1: So far? Uh my outright CARDA, I am going to

890
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:31,240
Speaker 1: go to Xander.

891
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 5: I think eleven to one is the very cut off

892
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:36,839
Speaker 5: points of where I'm still willing to get to. That

893
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 5: number min Wu in the eighties is a great price.

894
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 5: You might be able to shop around and find a

895
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 5: little bit better there with pat On Hideki at fifty

896
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:46,880
Speaker 5: five to one, and if you want to get really

897
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:49,800
Speaker 5: aggressive with your card, and this is still going to

898
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:53,880
Speaker 5: be less than a Scottie wager. I also like Rory McElroy.

899
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:56,799
Speaker 5: Those are the two guys for me at the very

900
00:38:56,840 --> 00:38:59,400
Speaker 5: top of the board that can compete with him with

901
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:02,359
Speaker 5: some of their stick stuff, and then the two head

902
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,080
Speaker 5: to head bets fades of straca in general. I like

903
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:08,040
Speaker 5: what pat talked about of potentially betting him to miss

904
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:10,319
Speaker 5: the cut. You know, a min wou Lee ticket is

905
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 5: one way to go. But one of the things I

906
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:14,600
Speaker 5: always do in the head to head market is I'm

907
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 5: finding players I want to fade versus ones that I'm

908
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:20,440
Speaker 5: technically trying to back. So there are a lot of

909
00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 5: options out there that are gonna make sense for me

910
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 5: of routes to fade Sepstraca and then I do like

911
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 5: Bizete and how it overhad win at minus one twenty.

912
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 2: All right, gentlemen, I thank you both right NOWT shameless plugs.

913
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:35,239
Speaker 2: You partly did my job because I was gonna ask

914
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:38,000
Speaker 2: you Pat, where you'd be eight o'clock Eastern the night

915
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 2: of June Twelfth's.

916
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 6: That right on Mayo Media Network talking all things us

917
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:45,400
Speaker 6: open and if you have tons of time on your

918
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 6: hands you really want to dig in, check out the

919
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 6: Pat Mayo Experience podcast.

920
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:50,959
Speaker 4: You can go to Mayo Media Network for the video.

921
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 6: We're just typing the pm me it'll pop up, or

922
00:39:53,120 --> 00:39:55,720
Speaker 6: you can get the audio versions. We've had five shows

923
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 6: already this week and everything that you want to know

924
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 6: about the show, player by player breaking down their stats

925
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:03,439
Speaker 6: and potential. A course research show where we really dig

926
00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 6: into both how it's gonna play with visuals and stats.

927
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,319
Speaker 6: Another show where we're goofing around and making bets, the

928
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:11,920
Speaker 6: best bets of the week and the DraftKings picks that

929
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 6: have come out so far. We did that on Wednesday,

930
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:16,840
Speaker 6: plus all the updated info like John Rahm not playing

931
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 6: in this tournament, which no one really seems to care about.

932
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned that with Rom that came

933
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 2: out yesterday, so he's uh, he's out with some of

934
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 2: the injury concern and Spencer, thank you. Follow along for

935
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:32,720
Speaker 2: Spencer Aguar more content fromhimd Action network dot com, also

936
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 2: Links and Locks podcast. Okay, very good, Pat, thanks for

937
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:36,399
Speaker 2: being here.

938
00:40:36,440 --> 00:40:39,160
Speaker 4: This was fun. Thanks for having me on. Great times.

939
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna work on that voice and get more

940
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:42,919
Speaker 2: fun for you next time.

941
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:43,359
Speaker 1: Boy.

942
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:44,879
Speaker 3: I mean, it's so good now.

943
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 4: I wouldn't change it for the world.

944
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:48,000
Speaker 3: Here saying it was bad before.

945
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:50,480
Speaker 4: Okay, I'm saying it's just so much different. It's used

946
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 4: to like we used to have like good time, party time,

947
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:54,920
Speaker 4: fun times. Here yucking it up. You sound like good. Vary.

948
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:57,759
Speaker 6: You could be a news broadcaster now you could be

949
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 6: I mean, I don't want to say that you could

950
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:03,520
Speaker 6: be Walter Cronkite, but maybe you could with that if

951
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:05,120
Speaker 6: you started smoking like two packs a day.

952
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:06,840
Speaker 4: You could be Walter Kronkite, is what I'm saying.

953
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:08,440
Speaker 3: All Right, Well, I'm gonna go buy a pack of

954
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 3: Marble reds here.

955
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 4: You go get them in you. Why do you think

956
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 4: my voice sounds like this?

957
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:16,720
Speaker 2: Pat Mayo of the Pat Meo Experience, Thanks for stopping

958
00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 2: by Spencer Agyar of The Action Network.

959
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:20,400
Speaker 3: Brendan glass Sheen, Thanks.

960
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:22,880
Speaker 2: For everyone tuning into the Action Network podcast. We are

961
00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:24,919
Speaker 2: presented by bet MGM best of block Enjoy.

962
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 6: The US over Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

963
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:38,800
Speaker 5: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

964
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 5: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

965
00:41:41,680 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 5: hundred Gambler