WEBVTT - Tensions Between the U.S. and China Over Hong Kong 0:00:00.720 --> 0:00:03.720 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.320 Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:11.160 latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, 0:00:11.240 --> 0:00:14.280 all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors. 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:16.439 And of course Carol that's part of a team of 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:20.439 twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred 0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:23.240 and twenty countries. And Jason. You can download Bloomberg Business 0:00:23.280 --> 0:00:26.239 Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You can 0:00:26.280 --> 0:00:28.640 also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern 0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:31.560 on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:35.839 by searching Bloomberg Global News. So, Jason, what are the 0:00:35.880 --> 0:00:39.280 headlines that caught me? Uh this morning? On earlier today 0:00:39.440 --> 0:00:41.680 was Governor Cuomo say New York City the last region 0:00:41.680 --> 0:00:43.720 of the state to remain on lockdown. It could begin 0:00:43.760 --> 0:00:47.560 to reopen on June eighth. So we are seeing things 0:00:47.680 --> 0:00:50.720 continuing to move forward. This is cases virus cases top 0:00:50.760 --> 0:00:54.240 five point eight million, deaths over three hundred sixty thousand. 0:00:54.640 --> 0:00:57.000 Let's bring back with us Dr Ian LUs Bader, He's 0:00:57.000 --> 0:00:59.800 clinical Associate Professor of medicine at n y U Landgown 0:00:59.840 --> 0:01:02.560 Medical Center. A friend of the show on the phone 0:01:02.600 --> 0:01:05.360 from New York City. Dr les Bad, are nice to 0:01:05.400 --> 0:01:08.360 have you back with us. How's your week been? Okay? 0:01:08.440 --> 0:01:11.839 Thanks so much. Hope you guys are staying well. Busy 0:01:11.880 --> 0:01:14.600 week for sure, seeing a lot of patients who fortunately 0:01:14.640 --> 0:01:18.280 have been discharged from the hospital with COVID, and we're 0:01:18.280 --> 0:01:21.319 seeing a number of the sort of sequala or side effects. 0:01:21.319 --> 0:01:24.840 Are people that have been quite ill, some Miley and 0:01:24.920 --> 0:01:28.280 some were severely with being a residual cough, chest pain, 0:01:28.360 --> 0:01:32.760 abnormal liver function tests. So not everyone gets out completely unscathed, 0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:36.480 as we've seen. All right, so why do you let 0:01:36.520 --> 0:01:41.400 them out? Then? Well, if someone is well enough breathing 0:01:41.440 --> 0:01:45.000 on their own doesn't need a machine. People are not 0:01:45.080 --> 0:01:47.760 kept in until they're perfect, because that could take weeks 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:51.440 or even months, and uh it's really not efficient to 0:01:51.600 --> 0:01:53.520 do that. So as long as someone gets through the 0:01:54.000 --> 0:01:57.920 kind of acute phase where they're breathing on their own 0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:02.200 room air and so forth, uh, able to move around, eat, Uh, 0:02:02.240 --> 0:02:04.920 they may not have they may not feel a hundred percent, 0:02:04.960 --> 0:02:06.520 and they may not feel a hundred percent for a 0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:09.120 prolonged time. You just can't keep everyone in sort of 0:02:09.560 --> 0:02:15.280 indefinitely or until there's perfection achieved. So helps help us 0:02:15.280 --> 0:02:18.960 synthesize that sort of the after effects of this. With 0:02:19.360 --> 0:02:21.840 what is going to be a gradual reopening of New 0:02:21.919 --> 0:02:25.720 York City, as Carol said, the last region of New 0:02:25.800 --> 0:02:30.200 York State to open. What are you expecting to happen 0:02:30.520 --> 0:02:32.760 in the short term and what advice do you have 0:02:32.880 --> 0:02:36.160 for New Yorkers. So, I think we're seeing a lot 0:02:36.200 --> 0:02:40.840 of people anxious, anxious about returning. Certainly we don't have 0:02:40.880 --> 0:02:44.560 that vaccine which we've talked about in the past that 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:47.720 would certainly be reassuring. We're seeing a number of patients 0:02:47.720 --> 0:02:50.920 with antibodies that are positive, which certainly would help, but 0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:55.560 nowhere near the herd immunity of you know, that would 0:02:55.600 --> 0:02:59.800 be great. So people I think are very concerned. Certainly 0:02:59.800 --> 0:03:03.040 older people are people at risk groups. But I think 0:03:03.120 --> 0:03:06.080 most of the patients, most people are just happy to 0:03:06.080 --> 0:03:08.320 get back, want to get back, and I think a 0:03:08.320 --> 0:03:10.600 little bit of that is play it by ear. There 0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:13.760 will be some risks, there will be some probably increase 0:03:13.800 --> 0:03:17.560 in cases, you know, the so called second waves. Hard 0:03:17.600 --> 0:03:20.160 to know how big that will be because certainly in 0:03:20.160 --> 0:03:22.520 New Yorrope. We've had a lot of patients you've had COVID, 0:03:22.880 --> 0:03:25.000 so it's certainly we have a little bit of a 0:03:25.040 --> 0:03:27.320 heads up or a little bit of a leg up 0:03:27.360 --> 0:03:29.760 in other areas where at least some of the population 0:03:29.840 --> 0:03:33.680 has antibodies. UM. But I think if you're older, sicker, 0:03:34.880 --> 0:03:39.880 have have a compromised immune system COPD, lung issues, hard issues, elderly, 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:43.120 probably best to be very safe and and and be 0:03:43.280 --> 0:03:46.080 some of the last to return to normal activity. You 0:03:46.080 --> 0:03:48.160 know what's interesting too, that you bring a b antibodies 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:50.120 is a great story. UM. I think I read it 0:03:50.160 --> 0:03:52.400 was in the in the journal out of down Jones 0:03:52.800 --> 0:03:58.480 and just talked about, um, the obscure trade of basically blood, uh, 0:03:58.520 --> 0:04:01.520 that people are looking for the blood recovered COVID nineteen patients. 0:04:01.560 --> 0:04:05.080 It's become a hot commodity because everybody wants to look 0:04:05.120 --> 0:04:07.320 at that blood and learn more about the virus. But 0:04:07.440 --> 0:04:10.000 that's one of the crucial steps, right and kind of 0:04:10.080 --> 0:04:14.120 understanding where we've been where we're going. Yeah, there's no 0:04:14.240 --> 0:04:17.520 question that the blood of patients who have been sick 0:04:17.600 --> 0:04:23.160 and recovered completely is a hot commodity, certainly for convalescent 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:26.000 plasma trials that are going on in many hospitals where 0:04:26.000 --> 0:04:29.479 sick patients are being given that convalescent plasma and we 0:04:29.560 --> 0:04:33.760 think hopefully will shorten their illness and hopefully save lives. 0:04:34.160 --> 0:04:38.000 But um that blood is also useful for many tests. 0:04:38.000 --> 0:04:41.200 All these small biotech companies, some of which are not 0:04:41.320 --> 0:04:46.440 totally regulated, want those blood samples to run as controls 0:04:46.720 --> 0:04:51.640 because they're developing anibody tests as well UM and research labs. 0:04:51.680 --> 0:04:55.800 So there's sort of a wild West scramble for the 0:04:55.800 --> 0:04:58.960 blood of patients who have done well, really did better 0:04:59.080 --> 0:05:01.479 understand the nature for the disease, what are the nature 0:05:01.480 --> 0:05:06.040 of the antibodies um, and even just for regular lab testing. 0:05:06.160 --> 0:05:10.120 So we've seen some like blood brokers and uh uh, 0:05:10.240 --> 0:05:16.000 sort of the shadier side of of biotech uh occurring. 0:05:16.080 --> 0:05:19.400 And it's unfortunate because in any crisis, you've got people 0:05:19.839 --> 0:05:22.359 doing well and doing good things. The patients, many of 0:05:22.360 --> 0:05:25.320 my patients say, I really want I'm so happy I survived, 0:05:25.560 --> 0:05:28.359 I'd love to donate blood, and they can at the 0:05:28.360 --> 0:05:31.279 New York Blood Center where we're not only blood donations 0:05:31.279 --> 0:05:35.880 are taken happily, but also for convalescent plasma. So patients 0:05:35.880 --> 0:05:39.359 who have survived and done well, can have the plasma 0:05:39.440 --> 0:05:42.560 taken out and used in in a variety of studies. 0:05:42.760 --> 0:05:45.640 But they're also bad people who are trying to extract 0:05:45.720 --> 0:05:48.920 high prices. We're speaking with Dr Ian les Bader, one 0:05:48.920 --> 0:05:51.359 of our go to docks and helping us understand this virus. 0:05:51.400 --> 0:05:53.920 I do want to bring you one headline that has 0:05:53.960 --> 0:05:59.120 crossed the bloomberg the former officer UH in Minneapolis who 0:05:59.200 --> 0:06:01.400 has been implicated it in the death of George Floyd. 0:06:01.440 --> 0:06:05.160 He has been charged with murder and manslaughter. That is 0:06:05.200 --> 0:06:09.040 according to some local news reports there in Minneapolis. Obviously, 0:06:09.240 --> 0:06:13.280 that has triggered riots and looting there in Minneapolis. It 0:06:13.400 --> 0:06:17.120 has drawn national attention. UH in many ways will be 0:06:17.160 --> 0:06:20.240 bringing you updates throughout the day in our world and 0:06:20.360 --> 0:06:22.400 national newscast. But I did want to bring you that 0:06:22.440 --> 0:06:24.760 headline because it is clearly top of mind from many 0:06:24.760 --> 0:06:26.840 of us. You know, ian UM one of the other 0:06:26.880 --> 0:06:28.880 things that we're thinking about when it comes to the virus. 0:06:28.960 --> 0:06:31.680 There's a story also that just talked about UM a 0:06:31.760 --> 0:06:35.760 farm in Tennessee where every single worker has COVID and 0:06:35.880 --> 0:06:38.320 just you know a reminder, I think it was roughly 0:06:38.320 --> 0:06:41.320 two employees that had been infected. Just a reminder that 0:06:41.800 --> 0:06:44.160 you know, this is obviously we don't want to see 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:46.760 anybody get the virus, but it also is something that impacts, 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:49.680 you know, our food supply chain. I mean, we're continuing 0:06:49.720 --> 0:06:52.760 to still see some pretty big outbreaks around the country, 0:06:53.600 --> 0:06:57.560 no question, and I think people UM really are of it. 0:06:57.600 --> 0:07:00.760 Seemed to fall into the cavalier camp where there a 0:07:01.680 --> 0:07:03.839 lot of young people feel they're impervious or in a 0:07:03.839 --> 0:07:08.160 low risk group and our socializing or running around without masks, 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:10.960 and then there's another group that's very concerned and and 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:13.560 mad if they see people around them. I've seen this 0:07:13.680 --> 0:07:19.200 even in families where different generations UM take this more 0:07:19.320 --> 0:07:22.680 or less seriously, and older parents may be angry at 0:07:23.400 --> 0:07:27.520 at younger people for for not being prudent and wearing 0:07:27.560 --> 0:07:30.160 masks all the time, which is difficult. I mean, people, 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:33.440 it is an adjustment. Not everyone has gotten used to that, 0:07:33.880 --> 0:07:38.240 but certainly we do need critical infrastructure like food supply 0:07:38.320 --> 0:07:42.400 and others that are safe. UM and without a vaccine, 0:07:42.440 --> 0:07:45.679 all we can really do is social distancing and wear masks. 0:07:46.640 --> 0:07:48.440 You know, when we need to do more studies to 0:07:48.480 --> 0:07:53.120 see if some medications. We talked about this last week. Obviously, 0:07:53.200 --> 0:07:56.119 some drugs like hydroxy florquine have pro and con data, 0:07:56.480 --> 0:07:59.239 but we really need those studies. We have to remember 0:07:59.320 --> 0:08:03.120 this broke basically in January, so we've had five or 0:08:03.160 --> 0:08:06.200 six months. It hasn't been with us for years, and 0:08:06.240 --> 0:08:08.480 it takes time to get these studies done. That's a 0:08:08.480 --> 0:08:11.720 really good point. Um You know that it does feel 0:08:11.720 --> 0:08:14.400 like it's been a long time, but it really hasn't been. 0:08:14.840 --> 0:08:16.760 And Ian, I mean, I do want to ask you know, 0:08:16.800 --> 0:08:19.600 we talked a little bit about this before, but we've 0:08:19.600 --> 0:08:22.160 talked about this with a lot of heads of hospitals, 0:08:22.200 --> 0:08:24.280 and as we've discussed, you've been on the front lines 0:08:24.320 --> 0:08:26.280 of this, and I wonder for you as a doctor, 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:29.000 I mean, how does your practice change in the short 0:08:29.040 --> 0:08:31.680 and mid term coming out of this and you know, 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:34.760 setting a second wave aside and assuming that we're going 0:08:34.800 --> 0:08:38.120 to be able to deal with another COVID outbreak medically. 0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:41.320 But I do wonder you know, your interactions with patients, 0:08:41.400 --> 0:08:44.720 your conversations with them, like how are you thinking about 0:08:44.800 --> 0:08:48.360 this going forward? Just as a practitioner here, well, we're 0:08:48.360 --> 0:08:52.200 seeing patients with nine masks and face shields, and as 0:08:52.240 --> 0:08:56.200 certainly um is closer. At least patients are now coming 0:08:56.240 --> 0:08:59.600 back into the office, which is great. Tele medicine has 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:01.800 been your are very helpful and a lot of patients 0:09:02.000 --> 0:09:05.079 who really are afraid to come in they shouldn't because 0:09:05.120 --> 0:09:09.240 we're checking temperatures for for people coming in. So prudent 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:12.000 steps are being done to reassure patients that it is 0:09:12.040 --> 0:09:15.720 safe to come in for screening, testing, colonoscopy in in 0:09:15.800 --> 0:09:19.040 the office. Uh. And it's great to have tele medicine, 0:09:19.559 --> 0:09:21.560 but there's definitely a bit of a barrier. You know, 0:09:21.600 --> 0:09:25.000 you're seeing patients with you're wearing gloves, you're wearing a 0:09:25.000 --> 0:09:27.640 mask and a face shield. They're wearing a mask. You know, 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:33.240 it is everyone is adapting and um, it's certainly good 0:09:33.280 --> 0:09:37.120 to be in person, but it definitely is Uh, it's 0:09:37.160 --> 0:09:40.120 getting used to and you have to make extra effort 0:09:41.000 --> 0:09:44.280 to really get a good diagnosis and reassure people and 0:09:44.400 --> 0:09:46.640 encourage them that it's okay not only to come in 0:09:46.679 --> 0:09:48.520 but to do testing, that it's safe to go to 0:09:48.559 --> 0:09:51.880 a lab to do blood tests. So, um, there are 0:09:51.880 --> 0:09:53.920 definitely a lot of hurdles and I think we're going 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:57.320 to see that as we try to get people back 0:09:57.360 --> 0:09:59.920 in along the way, and I think if there is 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:03.400 is a second wave, which is certainly possible, that will 0:10:03.440 --> 0:10:06.079 really be a shock to the economy and to people's 0:10:06.120 --> 0:10:11.160 psyches because they people don't like to feel vulnerable. Yeah. 0:10:11.200 --> 0:10:12.880 I have to say I've been I had to go 0:10:12.880 --> 0:10:15.400 after a routine test and I was very impressed with 0:10:15.480 --> 0:10:18.880 the procedures and they really thought about the patients coming 0:10:18.920 --> 0:10:21.600 in and we're very careful. I was in another situation 0:10:21.640 --> 0:10:23.800 in doctor's office where I felt like it's a little crowded. 0:10:24.080 --> 0:10:26.840 Uh so, uh, it was a little odd. Um. I 0:10:26.880 --> 0:10:29.400 just want to ask you quickly, Um, you've got Florida 0:10:29.679 --> 0:10:32.840 their COVID nighteen cases up two point three percent versus 0:10:32.840 --> 0:10:35.760 a previous seven day average of one. Is it just 0:10:35.840 --> 0:10:38.800 because more people are being tested or is this possibly 0:10:39.040 --> 0:10:42.200 early indications of a second wave? In your view, you know, 0:10:42.240 --> 0:10:44.440 I think it's a combination. I think we're getting a 0:10:44.440 --> 0:10:47.400 lot more tests and hopefully reliable tests. We talked about 0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:50.640 those blood brokers. I would stick with national labs that 0:10:50.679 --> 0:10:53.199 are doing those tests, the antibody tests and the swabs 0:10:53.320 --> 0:10:56.520 much more reliable. But I think we probably, especially in 0:10:56.600 --> 0:11:00.600 Florida now that once you start getting case, is there 0:11:00.640 --> 0:11:03.520 there tends to be that curve, and I don't think 0:11:03.520 --> 0:11:06.040 a lot of states have peaked yet. New York has peaked, 0:11:06.040 --> 0:11:08.360 and we know it's coming down and that's why we're returning. 0:11:08.559 --> 0:11:10.800 But I think many other states, and I think Florida 0:11:10.880 --> 0:11:13.920 too may not have seen the peak yet. And uh, 0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:15.840 this may not be a second wave. This may just 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:19.120 be the first wave that is continuing to ripple through 0:11:19.600 --> 0:11:21.920 in a state that is more spread out than New York. 0:11:21.960 --> 0:11:24.439 In New York City, you have a lot of exposure 0:11:24.440 --> 0:11:27.200 in a very dense area in Florida. I'm just wondering 0:11:27.240 --> 0:11:29.800 if this may not be just the natural progression, right, 0:11:29.800 --> 0:11:32.079 And you mentioned New York COVID nineteen cases at four 0:11:32.120 --> 0:11:33.800 tens of a percent. That's in line with the seven 0:11:33.840 --> 0:11:36.800 day average which has been up four tens of a percent. 0:11:36.920 --> 0:11:40.800 So yeah, there's the differences. Um Ian, Thank you so much. 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:44.600 Really appreciate um as always your insight, um and love 0:11:44.640 --> 0:11:46.200 that we get to check in with you every week. 0:11:46.320 --> 0:11:49.280 Dr Ian LUs Bader, have a good weekend. Clinical Associate 0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:51.920 Professor of Medicine at n y U Landgown Medical Center, 0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:54.760 Dr Lusbader joining us on the phone right here in 0:11:54.760 --> 0:11:58.120 New York City. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol 0:11:58.160 --> 0:12:02.319 Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. China has been 0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:05.880 front end center this entire week. We're expecting any minute 0:12:05.920 --> 0:12:08.400 to hear from the President. Before we take you there, 0:12:08.760 --> 0:12:12.000 let's get some context leading into it with Dexter Roberts, 0:12:12.040 --> 0:12:15.400 Mansfield Fellow at the University of Montana, former Bloomberg Business 0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:18.480 Week China Bureau chief. He's also the author of a 0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:22.480 fantastic and timely relatively new book came out earlier this year. 0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:24.439 It's called The Myth of Chinese Capitalism, The Work of 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:26.640 the Factory and the Future of the World. He joins 0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:29.840 us on the on the phone from Montana, Tiff, really 0:12:29.920 --> 0:12:33.320 nice to have you back with us. So this has 0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:37.400 been a pretty remarkable week. And I remember catching up 0:12:37.400 --> 0:12:39.520 with you earlier in the year and the Hong Kong 0:12:39.559 --> 0:12:44.079 protests were still, you know, very much going on. In 0:12:44.160 --> 0:12:46.400 many ways, it was sort of as we were getting 0:12:46.440 --> 0:12:49.199 into the pandemic. As you look at what's going on 0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:52.400 between the US and China. Now, what's the most important 0:12:52.440 --> 0:12:57.200 thing we need to know? Well, you know, uh, I 0:12:57.240 --> 0:13:02.720 think that the decision by Beijing to pursue this national 0:13:02.760 --> 0:13:06.520 security law, which frankly was a surprise to a lot 0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:09.480 of the world. Uh is a clear signal that they 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:12.960 are are not in a mood for compromise. And I 0:13:12.960 --> 0:13:15.760 think they knew before they made this move through the 0:13:15.840 --> 0:13:20.320 National People's Congress in Beijing that that the response would 0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:23.800 be overwhelming and it really has, with condemnation from countries 0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:29.120 around the world. And and frankly, you know, uh far more, 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:32.280 you know, an uptick in the protest in Hong Kong. 0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:34.559 So they knew this was going to happen, but they 0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:41.040 decided to go ahead. Well what okay, so it's interesting 0:13:41.080 --> 0:13:43.400 why did what? But I am kind of still too 0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:48.400 curious about the timing of this and why now. Well, 0:13:48.440 --> 0:13:52.640 I think that their calculation is that what with COVID 0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:56.359 nineteen and the world being distracted with dealing with the pandemic, 0:13:56.720 --> 0:13:59.840 they can actually get away with doing this now and 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:02.640 think it's something they've probably intended to do all along. 0:14:03.280 --> 0:14:08.520 And uh, this seemed like probably uh an opportunity right now. 0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:14.240 And so what are the implications, I mean, especially from 0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:18.599 an economic perspective. You know, you ran China for the magazine, 0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:21.760 you understand the economics of China so well, and the 0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:25.160 economic relationship between the two countries. What's at stake here 0:14:25.320 --> 0:14:29.280 in your estimation too, well, I think I think it's 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:33.320 and I think they are demonstrating that their desire to 0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:37.360 have clamped down on on these growing protests in Hong 0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:42.160 Kong and have UH and basically sacrifice this promise they 0:14:42.240 --> 0:14:46.720 made to give Hong Kong high degree of autonomy is uh. 0:14:46.880 --> 0:14:49.480 Is I mean they've decided that that this is this 0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:53.800 is worth doing, uh, simply because they cannot tolerate this 0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:56.680 show of what they see as unrest and what what 0:14:56.800 --> 0:15:00.600 frankly has seen as as weakness in Beijing to have 0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:04.280 these protests ongoing and not have a strong response from Beijing. 0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:07.200 So I think they've made that calculus. I think the 0:15:07.200 --> 0:15:11.040 the impact is likely to be huge, and particularly on 0:15:11.040 --> 0:15:14.840 on Americans and American companies. We've got I think last 0:15:14.880 --> 0:15:19.120 count eighty five thousand Americans living in Hong Kong, over 0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:24.480 thirteen hundred American companies, including all our major financial financial companies. 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:28.200 They're all in Hong Kong. And UH, depending on how 0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:31.160 this unfolds, UH and and what we hear from the 0:15:31.200 --> 0:15:36.280 president later this after well very shortly UH this UH, 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:38.120 you know, they could make it. There could be a 0:15:38.120 --> 0:15:41.880 retalatory move that would strip the special status of Hong Kong, 0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:45.960 which which would have an enormous impact on American business 0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:48.720 and global business in Hong Kong and an enormous impact 0:15:48.760 --> 0:15:51.320 on the Hong Kong economy. Jiff, Why would the Chinese 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:55.600 risk that and put that at risk? I think again, 0:15:55.680 --> 0:15:58.680 I think we we uh, we run the risk when 0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:02.440 we look at China of uh, of of not realizing 0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:06.000 how important it is to them to have firm control 0:16:06.480 --> 0:16:09.480 and the party, which of course is the Government of China. Uh, 0:16:09.560 --> 0:16:13.200 it matters very very much. She jing Ping has been 0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:17.400 very bold about being far more assertive that the role, 0:16:17.680 --> 0:16:20.840 you know, the power of the party, the role is 0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:23.160 trying to take globally is far more assertive, whether it's 0:16:23.200 --> 0:16:25.680 Hong Kong or the South China Sea. And I think 0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:29.600 they know politics and control this is you know, this 0:16:29.680 --> 0:16:31.920 is this is an demonstration of sort of the old 0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:35.280 ways that have sort of resurfaced under she Where economics 0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:38.120 comes Bacond, Well, is it also though they need to 0:16:38.160 --> 0:16:40.880 do this to survive. You know Vincentnarella, who watches the 0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:42.640 markets for us, and he and I have been going 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:44.600 back and forth about China all week, and he said, 0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:48.160 you know, they've got a really pressing problem in China 0:16:48.280 --> 0:16:50.320 right now. The Communist Party is what one percent of 0:16:50.320 --> 0:16:53.680 the population. They've only got military to really protect their 0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:57.680 power base, and there's a lot more pressures coming from 0:16:57.720 --> 0:17:00.840 the masses right who either want change are are not 0:17:00.960 --> 0:17:02.680 living in a great way, and there's a lot more 0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:07.160 pressure on the government. Yeah, I think you're absolutely right, Carol, 0:17:07.320 --> 0:17:10.120 what you've been discussing there. Uh, I think that there. 0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:11.800 I think they are aware that they're going to be 0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:16.760 facing a very difficult and economic environment later this year. 0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:22.159 We've already seen huge layoffs of of employees in China. 0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:26.280 They're ready for a shock to their export sector with 0:17:26.359 --> 0:17:29.159 the downturn and the rest of the world. And often 0:17:29.160 --> 0:17:34.720 we've seen the response, somewhat interesting, somewhat surprisingly perhaps is 0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:37.520 to make a gesture like this, and I think part 0:17:37.560 --> 0:17:40.840 of it is almost an effort to distract the populace 0:17:41.080 --> 0:17:44.399 from problems at home. Many people, uh, you know, quite 0:17:44.840 --> 0:17:47.119 they can be quite proud about the rise of China, 0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:49.000 and this is the way to say, Look, you know, 0:17:49.080 --> 0:17:51.920 foreign forces are trying to hold us back, and they're 0:17:52.040 --> 0:17:55.040 they're they're doing it in Hong Kong and and uh, 0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:57.840 you know, don't don't blame us for economic problems at home. 0:17:58.119 --> 0:17:59.960 Look at what the world's trying to do to China 0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:03.080 in Hong Kong. Well, and it's interesting, Tiff, you know, 0:18:03.160 --> 0:18:05.840 as we think about from our perspective in in the 0:18:05.880 --> 0:18:09.360 world and the Western world specifically, and what Hong Kong means. 0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:14.200 I think it's hard to overstate the importance that that has. 0:18:14.240 --> 0:18:16.160 And I think we've talked about this with you before, 0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:19.040 that it has in the global financial markets. I've been 0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:21.760 coming back to this time and time again across this 0:18:21.880 --> 0:18:25.840 week that it is just it holds a remarkably important 0:18:25.880 --> 0:18:30.479 place literally and I think figuratively in in some ways, 0:18:30.600 --> 0:18:32.760 and in being such a key part of the global 0:18:32.800 --> 0:18:35.800 financial system. Again, as someone who's seen that up close 0:18:35.840 --> 0:18:38.920 and personal, what's its stake for to be a little 0:18:38.960 --> 0:18:42.679 proochial about it, what's its stake for Wall Street here? Well, 0:18:42.720 --> 0:18:46.480 as I said earlier, I mean, we have uh over 0:18:47.280 --> 0:18:50.000 d of our top companies operating in Hong Kong. We 0:18:50.080 --> 0:18:53.720 have all of our major financial company uh they you know, 0:18:53.760 --> 0:18:56.560 they they've used Hong Kong as a as a perch 0:18:56.640 --> 0:18:59.800 in Asia to do business in greater China, and that 0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:03.119 frank that that that role that Hong Kong has played 0:19:03.240 --> 0:19:05.640 is frankly, you know, at greater risk right now than 0:19:05.680 --> 0:19:09.080 it has been in in many, many years. And so 0:19:09.160 --> 0:19:13.240 I think, uh, the impact would be very, very devastating 0:19:13.560 --> 0:19:17.560 for Wall Street. UM and I you know, frankly, I'm 0:19:17.600 --> 0:19:20.480 I'm not very optimistic looking at I don't think that 0:19:20.560 --> 0:19:23.920 they've left the US with a lot of choice. I mean, 0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:27.040 we have this thing called the Hong Kong Human Rights 0:19:27.040 --> 0:19:30.600 and Democracy Act that Trump signed in November, and it 0:19:30.600 --> 0:19:33.719 states very clearly that the State Department UH does an 0:19:33.760 --> 0:19:36.639 annual review and they have to, uh, they have to 0:19:36.680 --> 0:19:39.160 show that China is still giving Hong Kong a high 0:19:39.160 --> 0:19:42.440 degree of autonomy or uh, we we have to alter 0:19:42.560 --> 0:19:44.920 the relationship that we have with them and take away 0:19:44.960 --> 0:19:47.679 the special privileges that Hong Kong has on terrorists and 0:19:47.720 --> 0:19:50.520 so on. And uh, you know, quite frankly, the National 0:19:50.560 --> 0:19:55.120 Security Law shows that China is not no longer uh 0:19:55.440 --> 0:19:57.960 guaranteeing that Hong Kong has this high degree of autonomy. 0:19:58.760 --> 0:20:01.320 What's interesting, Tiff is, and you know this so well. 0:20:01.400 --> 0:20:05.240 You understand China, You understand, uh, you know, foreign businesses 0:20:05.280 --> 0:20:08.439 coming into China, and the thinking was better for us 0:20:08.480 --> 0:20:11.479 to be involved in Chinese society, that we will help 0:20:11.560 --> 0:20:13.760 facilitate change, right, And that was the thinking of a 0:20:13.760 --> 0:20:17.919 lot of global global multinationals. And yet it hasn't necessarily 0:20:17.960 --> 0:20:22.040 played out that way, or has it. I think I 0:20:22.080 --> 0:20:25.320 think we were overly optimistic, and that was of course 0:20:25.320 --> 0:20:30.320 the rationale for giving China most Favored Nation on permanent 0:20:30.320 --> 0:20:33.880 normal status back under the Clinton administration and then China 0:20:33.920 --> 0:20:36.920 answering the World Trade Organization in two thousand and one, 0:20:37.400 --> 0:20:40.240 and it really hasn't. Really, it hasn't turned out that way. 0:20:40.280 --> 0:20:43.320 I think, I think it's fair to say that. I mean, 0:20:43.320 --> 0:20:46.399 I remember I was in I was in Beijing and 0:20:46.800 --> 0:20:49.560 seven when Hong Kong was returned to the main return 0:20:49.600 --> 0:20:51.320 to the mainland, I remember writing a piece and this 0:20:51.359 --> 0:20:54.560 was quite common, saying, uh, Hong Kong will change China. 0:20:54.840 --> 0:20:58.399 The free ideas, the free economy there will change China. 0:20:58.680 --> 0:21:00.879 And I was wrong and uh uh and a lot 0:21:00.920 --> 0:21:04.080 of other people were wrong as well. China is intent 0:21:04.240 --> 0:21:07.000 on changing Hong Kong and uh. They don't seem very 0:21:07.000 --> 0:21:09.159 concerned about what the rest of the world thinks. Do 0:21:09.280 --> 0:21:11.440 they have to be concerned or can they do their 0:21:11.440 --> 0:21:13.800 own thing? I mean, they're so massive, and I just 0:21:13.840 --> 0:21:17.280 do wonder what their role is in in the world 0:21:17.480 --> 0:21:19.639 at large going forward. What does it need to be 0:21:19.880 --> 0:21:21.400 or does it not? You know, can they just kind 0:21:21.400 --> 0:21:24.640 of do their own thing? Well, I think they are 0:21:24.880 --> 0:21:28.639 overestimating their ability to to go it alone. But it 0:21:28.760 --> 0:21:31.960 is worth noting that when Hong Kong was returned to 0:21:32.000 --> 0:21:35.760 the mainland, it was it's GDP was about one fifth 0:21:35.840 --> 0:21:39.480 of the total mainland economy, and now it's about three percent. 0:21:40.000 --> 0:21:42.120 You know, there's been they haven't made a lot of progress, 0:21:42.160 --> 0:21:45.239 but there's been uh efforts by China to build up 0:21:45.240 --> 0:21:49.600 Shanghai as an alternate financial center. Again, not very much 0:21:49.640 --> 0:21:52.560 progress made, but it is the fact that Hong Kong 0:21:52.600 --> 0:21:55.840 is very important. I think as it's very important as 0:21:55.920 --> 0:22:00.000 a sort of symbolic UH. The policy towards Hong Kong 0:22:00.240 --> 0:22:02.880 shows us what China's you know, what China is thinking 0:22:02.920 --> 0:22:06.520 about economic reform. But it is frankly less important to 0:22:06.600 --> 0:22:10.320