1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 1: Welcome back everybody to the Betting Pros College Football Show. 2 00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 1: I'm your host, Scott Bogman. Follow me on the Twitter 3 00:00:06,760 --> 00:00:09,720 Speaker 1: at Bogman Sports. I'm joined as always by Thorn Knights 4 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 1: from at thor Ku on the Twitter. Thor interesting week ten, 5 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:17,079 Speaker 1: but we look forward to Week eleven. I know I'm 6 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,159 Speaker 1: excited about the Longhorns matchup. There's a lot to be 7 00:00:20,239 --> 00:00:23,599 Speaker 1: excited about this week. It's going to be another fun one. 8 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:26,759 Speaker 1: But let's dive in and start on the Thursday and 9 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 1: Friday games. 10 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 2: Here. 11 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:32,480 Speaker 1: We've got Louisiana minus three versus Georgia Southern, the total 12 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 1: sixty one and a half. There, Memphis by six and 13 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:38,479 Speaker 1: a half hosting Tulsa sixty one and a half again, 14 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 1: the total in that game. So we'll start with Thursday, 15 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 1: then we'll go to Friday, and of course we're going 16 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 1: to have the cash games and the top five picks 17 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:49,199 Speaker 1: here as well, like we always do. 18 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:52,239 Speaker 3: But Thor, what do you got for Thursday night for 19 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 3: us here? 20 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:53,320 Speaker 2: Yeah? 21 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 4: As far as the Thursday games, the lean I would 22 00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 4: have and I wouldn't have expected this to be my lean, 23 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:02,280 Speaker 4: but it's Louisiana in that game against Georgia Southern. I 24 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 4: don't trust that Louisiana team ever since Napier left them, 25 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 4: but they do match up really well here and against 26 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 4: a Georgia Southern team that has had some super flukey wins. 27 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 4: But very specifically, it's Louisiana's pass defense one of the 28 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 4: best aspects of that team. I think they can address 29 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:21,919 Speaker 4: that crazy pass happy offense of Georgia Southern. Georgia Southern 30 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 4: throws the ball more than Mississippi State does, which is 31 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:27,280 Speaker 4: which is crazy Clay Hilton taking over that triple ouption team, 32 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 4: but they throw the ball all the time. They have 33 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 4: problems with the teams that are better at defending the past. 34 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:36,119 Speaker 4: That's what Louisiana is. So most times I'm not going 35 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 4: to be back in Louisiana. I don't know if I 36 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 4: have all season, but that would be the side that 37 00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:42,640 Speaker 4: I would prefer in that one, the Tulsa Memphis game. 38 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:45,679 Speaker 4: That one for me, it all comes down to, is 39 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 4: Davis Brynn gonna play? Right Like Davis Brent missed his 40 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 4: first career game last week. We don't exactly know what 41 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:55,520 Speaker 4: his status is right now, but if Brnn doesn't play, 42 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 4: it's super hard to back Tulsa here, whereas in general 43 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 4: I have found it to back Ryan Silverfield at all 44 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 4: during his tenure at Memphis. I think he's the worst 45 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 4: coach in the FBS. I'm not looking to back Memphis 46 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:11,480 Speaker 4: like ever, but like in this one, a BRIT's not playing, 47 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:13,839 Speaker 4: it becomes harder to do that. 48 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 2: Both of these teams want to throw the ball. 49 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 4: Tulsa's past defense is pretty good, Memphis is awful, So 50 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:23,359 Speaker 4: I mean that goes back to the same thing. If 51 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:27,799 Speaker 4: you have Brynn, Tulsa has that good receiving Corkkeelon Stokes back. 52 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 4: He's been a stud that their secondary receivers are really 53 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 4: good as well. If Bryn is back, they should be 54 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:36,960 Speaker 4: able to move the ball at will on that crappy 55 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 4: Memphis secondary. But if he's not and you got to 56 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:42,919 Speaker 4: play the back up again, it becomes a much harder 57 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 4: proposition for Tulsa. 58 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:49,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, gonna be an interesting Thursday, that's for sure. Friday, 59 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 1: we've got Cincinnati by five and a half versus ECU. 60 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 1: Fifty two and a half is a total in that game. 61 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:55,359 Speaker 3: Number eight. 62 00:02:55,480 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 1: USC is a thirty four point home favorite against Colorado's six. 63 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 1: Six is a total there and Presdo's State by nine 64 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:05,799 Speaker 1: and a half at UNLV sixty and a half of 65 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:08,919 Speaker 1: the total there, thirty four points is a lot of points. 66 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 1: I don't know that USC is good enough to beat 67 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:14,080 Speaker 1: anyone by thirty four points just because their defense, like 68 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 1: you would describe many things, is a sieve. Colorado hasn't 69 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:20,800 Speaker 1: been good, but they've been looking better as the season 70 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:22,960 Speaker 1: goes on, and they've been putting up a couple points, 71 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:25,640 Speaker 1: so I can't I think maybe I like the over 72 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 1: in that game more than anything. 73 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 3: What do you like from Friday Thorn? 74 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, as far as that game goes for me, you 75 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 4: would on the side it would be Colorado or nothing, 76 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 4: which is it's weird to say, you know, and thinking 77 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,960 Speaker 4: about these two teams, but you're totally right. Like we've 78 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 4: seen over and over again from the seven is now 79 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 4: eight with US seven or eight teams that have fired 80 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 4: their head coach as and I suppose you wouldn't cout 81 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 4: us UF in this yet, but like the week after 82 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 4: and the rest of the season, they have done demonstrably 83 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 4: better against the spread at the window than they did beforehand. 84 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 2: Colorado certainly is a part of that. Colorado. I mean, 85 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 2: what you're. 86 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 4: Looking for with this team, like any of these teams 87 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 4: that are in sort of this filum, It's like are 88 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 4: they are they still locked in? Are they still engaged? 89 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 4: Do you still get effort? Is there any continuity with 90 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 4: their game plan? With Colorado there has been They have 91 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 4: gotten better efforts since firing Durrell. I think their game 92 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:21,240 Speaker 4: plans they've had more continuity with that stuff. They've been 93 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 4: more intelligent, sort of designed, and so you have that, 94 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:27,839 Speaker 4: you know, on that one side. With USC. Here, here's 95 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:31,159 Speaker 4: the thing with USC. They're banged up to hell right now. 96 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 4: They have been for several weeks now. I mean, like, 97 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 4: you know, Jordan Addison is one of the big ones 98 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 4: the linebacker gentry that they're leading tackler, but they have 99 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 4: several more guys that have been in, like vorhis the 100 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:45,839 Speaker 4: All American card they have. 101 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 2: He had been out before. 102 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:49,839 Speaker 4: Then he comes back last week, but then that game 103 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 4: they get him back, but then they left tackles out, 104 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:54,040 Speaker 4: you know, like they have all these guys out. 105 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:58,119 Speaker 2: You know, Mario Williams as well. In this game. 106 00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 4: This lines up as the clo a game where the 107 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 4: heavily favored coach would take it as an opportunity to 108 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 4: rest anyone that isn't one hundred percent right like, and 109 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:09,719 Speaker 4: if Lincoln Riley decides to do that. 110 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:12,159 Speaker 2: I think you take the points of Colorado. 111 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 4: Here, you go the contrarian route because USC may have 112 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:19,160 Speaker 4: a super depreciated lineup in this game. This is one 113 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 4: where you have to check the status is leading up. 114 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:24,599 Speaker 4: If USC is at full strength in this game, yeah, 115 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:25,680 Speaker 4: I mean you can't. 116 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:27,120 Speaker 2: Take Colorado in that scenario. 117 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 4: But if they're not Colorado again, a team that has 118 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 4: not quit yet, I think that they can keep it 119 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 4: within this enormously inflated number. If USC has a whole 120 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:40,600 Speaker 4: bunch of inactives, this is one that I'm not betting now. 121 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 4: I'm gonna wait on this one until game day because 122 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:45,680 Speaker 4: people aren't betting on Colorado. So that line just keeps 123 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:48,480 Speaker 4: getting higher and higher. So I mean, you're not losing 124 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 4: any value on that. You might as well wait around 125 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 4: and then on Friday, see the reports that you're seeing 126 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 4: about the actives and inactives on the USC side, and 127 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 4: if you see that Lincoln Riley has inactivated you. 128 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 2: Know ten contributors. 129 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:03,160 Speaker 4: That's I think when you you drop the hammer on 130 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 4: on Colorado, and if not, you just stay away from 131 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 4: it the the UNLV Fresno State game. 132 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 2: It's interesting almost for the same reasons. 133 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:13,920 Speaker 4: You know, we talked a lot about a whole bunch 134 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:16,719 Speaker 4: of games that are informed by an act as act 135 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 4: as the injury stuff. Like UNLV has been a team that, 136 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:23,600 Speaker 4: you know, the past several weeks, they've had all these injuries. 137 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 4: The quarterback Brumfield was out, they'd lost their running back 138 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 4: Robins for a bit. 139 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 2: Kyle Williams their their top receiver. But it looks like 140 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:33,520 Speaker 2: UNLV is getting Brumfield back for this one. 141 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:36,120 Speaker 4: We'll see about the other kids, but they're gonna be 142 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:38,920 Speaker 4: healthier for this game than they've been in several weeks. 143 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 4: Everybody remembers they started the season well. Then UNLV dropped 144 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:44,919 Speaker 4: off that they're on a bit of a skal, but 145 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:47,960 Speaker 4: that was in conjunction with all these injuries. So, I mean, 146 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 4: if they can get back to full strength, you would 147 00:06:49,680 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 4: think you'd get closer to sort of the September un 148 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:54,919 Speaker 4: l V And on the Fresno State side, that's a 149 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 4: team that is now badly beat up with injuries. Before 150 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:00,360 Speaker 4: it was it was mostly hater that we were talking about. 151 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:03,039 Speaker 4: Haters come back now, but they got injuries all over 152 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 4: the place. Their left tackle is hurt at one. In 153 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 4: the secondary, they have they have several ones. Last week, 154 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 4: I think it was Braylon Lux, their their starting cornerback. 155 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 2: He was out as well. 156 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 4: They lost a backup tight end to an injury for 157 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 4: the season as well, and they have a linebacker and 158 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 4: a receiver that are out for the year. Jeff Tedford 159 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:23,800 Speaker 4: spent a lot of his press conference this week talking about, 160 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 4: like we're super duper beat up by injuries and so 161 00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:29,760 Speaker 4: like it's already a storyline with them. 162 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 2: He's already talking about it. 163 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:34,560 Speaker 4: This Fresno State team is not at one hundred percent 164 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 4: despite having j Cayner back. This one, for me is 165 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 4: that the two angles, the two potential leans. For me, 166 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:43,680 Speaker 4: it would be it would be unlv or pass and 167 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 4: it would. 168 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 2: Be the under pass. 169 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 4: For some of these different reasons. I think Hayter, who 170 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:51,560 Speaker 4: he can't be one hundred percent. I don't know what 171 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 4: percent he is beneath that, but he's definitely not one hundred. 172 00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 4: His offensive line now is depreciated, So now now you 173 00:07:58,240 --> 00:07:59,239 Speaker 4: know he could be under. 174 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 2: A little bit more. We'll see how he sort of 175 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:01,880 Speaker 2: handles that. 176 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 4: But for me, this is a bounce back spot for 177 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 4: UNLV and a potential look on the under. 178 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:10,320 Speaker 1: All right, let's go over to the cash games here, 179 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 1: and I'm just gonna list them all off door once again. 180 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 3: They're on, They're on our sheet. 181 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 1: There's eight of them, there's a ton, so I'll go 182 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 1: through them all and just tell me the ones that 183 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 1: you have a good feeling on. 184 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:23,200 Speaker 3: And you know, we talked about this last week. 185 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 1: I think the same thing has happened right where you're 186 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:30,000 Speaker 1: just getting people that have that are not betting anymore 187 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 1: because they have run out of money. So which means 188 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:40,000 Speaker 1: that a lot of just the sharps are betting early 189 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 1: in the week. So, but the tickets in cash are 190 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 1: big differences in these games, at least twenty five percent 191 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 1: from all of them that that I have listed here, 192 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 1: I believe so Indiana plus forty at Iowa State is 193 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 1: getting ninety nine percent of cash and seventy percent of 194 00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: the tickets. Yukon plus fourteen and a half at Liberty 195 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,679 Speaker 1: is getting ninety nine percent of the cash seventy four 196 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:05,559 Speaker 1: percent of the tickets. 197 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:08,199 Speaker 3: Navy versus Notre Dame. 198 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 1: A little less than what I said before, but until 199 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 1: ninety five to seventy four in Navy plus fifteen and 200 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:17,199 Speaker 1: a half SMU minus seventeen and a half. One of 201 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:22,200 Speaker 1: the few that were laying the points for at USF 202 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:25,440 Speaker 1: ninety eight percent of the cash, sixty seven percent of 203 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:27,959 Speaker 1: the tickets. You did mention Jeff Scott was fired from 204 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:31,559 Speaker 1: USF Georgia State by thirteen and a half versus Louisiana 205 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:36,240 Speaker 1: Monroe ninety seven percent sixty percent Nebraska plus thirty and 206 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:39,640 Speaker 1: a half at Michigan ninety nine percent of cash, thirty 207 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:42,720 Speaker 1: seven percent of the tickets. So biggest difference of all 208 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:47,000 Speaker 1: right there UCLA minus nineteen and a half against Arizona 209 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:50,040 Speaker 1: ninety nine percent of the cash, seventy two percent of 210 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:52,520 Speaker 1: the ticket, and in San Jose State by two and 211 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 1: a half at San Diego State ninety eight percent cash 212 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 1: sixty two percent ticket. 213 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 3: So, I mean, we got a enormous spreads in here. 214 00:10:02,280 --> 00:10:04,680 Speaker 1: A lot that are fifteen or more points are hovering 215 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:08,200 Speaker 1: right around there. So your thoughts on any of these 216 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 1: eight games here. 217 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, the the one that's surprising a little bit. I 218 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 4: mean a couple of them they sort of conformed to 219 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 4: what your opinion would be, and a couple of. 220 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:23,000 Speaker 2: Them I suppose are surprising the. 221 00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:26,560 Speaker 4: The So the SMU South Florida one, that's the money's 222 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 4: going on SMU, but the tickets are more even. 223 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 2: Is that? Is that what it is? 224 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:31,840 Speaker 3: Yes? 225 00:10:32,720 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, So that one is not as surprising to me 226 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 4: because you're you're you're wondering who would bet, who would 227 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 4: possibly in their right mind bet on South Florida at 228 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 4: this point after they they've just gotten flogged every time recently, 229 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:49,640 Speaker 4: and SMU, we just saw them pin seventy seven on someone, 230 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:52,679 Speaker 4: this guy who's got two thumbsand pointed, this guy, I 231 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:57,560 Speaker 4: will have tickets on on South Florida and they might 232 00:10:57,679 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 4: end up in my column. 233 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 2: Reason why is the dead cat bounce. 234 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 4: Which has been so profitable to us this year and 235 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:10,720 Speaker 4: going back multiple years. It's statistically significant that the week 236 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 4: after you fire your head coach this year, it's five 237 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 4: and two against the spread. Teams that I believe were 238 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 4: something like I don't know the numbers right in front 239 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:20,360 Speaker 4: of me, but it was they were like six and 240 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 4: twenty two or six and twenty something against the spread previously. 241 00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:26,320 Speaker 4: Then they fired their head coach, and then five and 242 00:11:26,360 --> 00:11:30,120 Speaker 4: two afterwards with multiple upsets of fourteen and a half 243 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:33,320 Speaker 4: points or more. And then last week we almost got 244 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:35,560 Speaker 4: one that it wouldn't have quite qualified because I think 245 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 4: Auburn was plus thirteen, but they gave Missippi State everything 246 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 4: that they could handle ended up losing in overtime. But 247 00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 4: it was another of those five covers for those reasons, 248 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:49,320 Speaker 4: and also because SMU they're a little bit beat up 249 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 4: and they're a little bit thin. You didn't see it 250 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 4: last week when they were hanging seventy seven on Houston. 251 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:56,719 Speaker 4: You don't get two offensive performances like that in a row, 252 00:11:56,760 --> 00:12:00,440 Speaker 4: even though South Florida their defense is in abomination. Anyone 253 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:03,080 Speaker 4: that watched the Temple game last week could tell you. 254 00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 4: And I watched that entire game because I had tickets 255 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:07,560 Speaker 4: on Temple and I had two of their guys in 256 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:10,320 Speaker 4: my my fifty teen fantasy football lineup in the playoffs, 257 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:11,840 Speaker 4: so I was watching that game. 258 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:13,960 Speaker 2: Man usf was giving up everything. 259 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:16,480 Speaker 4: But you would expect this to be the best performance 260 00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:17,760 Speaker 4: that South Florida. 261 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:18,200 Speaker 2: Has all season. 262 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:21,520 Speaker 4: And again I think you can catch SMU here on 263 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:24,800 Speaker 4: a bit of a letdown spot. Sort of surprising that 264 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:28,640 Speaker 4: the money's coming in on Navy, but at least these 265 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:33,839 Speaker 4: sports books are respecting it and adjusting for it, you 266 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:35,520 Speaker 4: would you would have thought that the money would be 267 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 4: coming in on Notre Dame after that. You know that 268 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:41,080 Speaker 4: their enormous win and they're they're convincing win and they're 269 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 4: dominate the entire game. 270 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 2: Win against Clemson last week. 271 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:48,200 Speaker 4: I think Navy matches up exceedingly well in that game. 272 00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 4: That was one that I was talking about, you know, 273 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 4: going back to Sunday and Monday, maybe just matches up 274 00:12:54,520 --> 00:12:57,439 Speaker 4: so well because obviously the triple option offense they can 275 00:12:57,480 --> 00:13:00,680 Speaker 4: tee off on. What what is Notre Dames defense of weakness. 276 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:03,320 Speaker 4: They're they're you know, front the front seven. Their Notre 277 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 4: Dame's run defense is not very good. The thing about 278 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 4: Notre Dame's defense, it is good. It's the pass defense, 279 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:09,839 Speaker 4: which those guys. 280 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 2: Can take an afternoon off. They will. 281 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:13,520 Speaker 4: They are not needed that They're not going to come 282 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:16,280 Speaker 4: into play here. It's just gonna be Navy paper cutting 283 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 4: this bad Notre Dame defense all day. And then on 284 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:23,439 Speaker 4: on the other side, Navy's pass defense is horrific. It's 285 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 4: one of the worst in the FBS. They particularly struggle 286 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:29,720 Speaker 4: with athleticism on the outside because they don't have any 287 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 4: of it. 288 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 2: But their run defense is very good. 289 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:35,880 Speaker 4: So it's it's one of those defenses where you have 290 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:40,079 Speaker 4: the decided strength, objective strength, and then you know this 291 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 4: this this Achilles heel. Well in this game, like what 292 00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 4: Notre Dame has been doing, you know, I mean like 293 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 4: since they they they sort of figured out how to 294 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 4: play with Drew Pine and since he took over, they've 295 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 4: just been going to trying to hammer you between the 296 00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 4: tackles and then you do some of the stuff outside. 297 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 4: It's it's sort of this this downhill type deal. Just 298 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 4: you know, we're just gonna your front seven. Well that's 299 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:04,680 Speaker 4: what Navy defends. Well, the thing that Navy can't defend 300 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 4: it's the outside stuff. 301 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 2: Notre Dame. 302 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:08,839 Speaker 4: They don't have any skill on the outside and they 303 00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:11,840 Speaker 4: have a noodle alarm quarterback. The one guy that scares 304 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:14,760 Speaker 4: you in their passing game, it's Michael Mayer. But he's 305 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:17,640 Speaker 4: a middle of the field, intermediate guy. He's gonna have 306 00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:20,280 Speaker 4: a big game for sure, But like it's not like 307 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 4: Navy matchup worse against him. What they really fear, it's 308 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 4: the athleticism on the outside. Notre Dame has a dearth 309 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 4: of it, and they don't have a quarterback who get 310 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:31,360 Speaker 4: the ball there. Even even if they did so, Navy 311 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 4: matchup really well in that game. I'm taking the points 312 00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 4: of Navy. I got a maybe plus seventeen ticket. Not 313 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 4: surprising to me that that thing has dropped down. Some 314 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 4: of these other ones, they are interesting, like the public 315 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,640 Speaker 4: is really getting behind Indiana as an enormous underdog. And 316 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 4: Yukon against Liberty after Liberty just beat Arkansas with their 317 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 4: third string quarterback. 318 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:51,840 Speaker 2: That's that's a bit surprising to me. 319 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:54,920 Speaker 4: I don't have any plays on those games, but it's 320 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:56,560 Speaker 4: it's sort of interesting. 321 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:58,000 Speaker 2: I guess kind. 322 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 1: Of thing that that's like one big on some of 323 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,920 Speaker 1: those games, you know what I mean, Like like one 324 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:05,240 Speaker 1: huge bet on Yukon. 325 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 3: Is why all the cash is there? You know what 326 00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:08,360 Speaker 3: I mean? 327 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:12,360 Speaker 1: I think that's probably more likely, but I wouldn't want 328 00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 1: to touch that one, honestly. Like there's no way I'm 329 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 1: not taking Indiana at all. I don't really care what 330 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:24,280 Speaker 1: the points are because Ohio State. Ohio State needs a 331 00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 1: big win too, after barely beating Northwestern or you know, 332 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 1: going to to toe. I know there was weather and 333 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 1: it shouldn't be that concerning in Ohio State. Season ultimately 334 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 1: comes down to you know, beating Michigan of course, But 335 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 1: I don't know, man, I just I do not like 336 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 1: Indiana at all, and they have won me some money 337 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:47,560 Speaker 1: this year by betting against them, So not something I 338 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 1: would take. The totals here thor, we got five of 339 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 1: those in terms of the cash. NT State versus Boston 340 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 1: College over forty one is ninety nine percent cash only 341 00:15:57,080 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 1: fifty seven percent of the tickets though, Texas Tech versus 342 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 1: Kansas over sixty four ninety nine percent past sixty three 343 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:07,240 Speaker 1: percent of tickets, Syracuse verus Florida State over fifty one, 344 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 1: ninety seven sixty seven, MSCU versus Rutgers over forty and 345 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:15,080 Speaker 1: a half ninety six to fifty four, and WKU vers 346 00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 1: Rice over sixty one, ninety eight percent of cash, sixty 347 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 1: two percent of tickets. 348 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:22,400 Speaker 3: So any of those five that you have a big lean. 349 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 4: In, Yeah, I did on the over of Boston College 350 00:16:28,240 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 4: and North Carolina State. It's one that I got a 351 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 4: marked down on my sheet. 352 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 2: I do lean towards the over that one. 353 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:39,880 Speaker 4: The let's see it's bogwen you say it was forty 354 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:40,640 Speaker 4: one and a half live. 355 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 2: That was the last one I saw. 356 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 4: Yes, Yeah, So my system's total on that game is 357 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 4: forty five and a half. But I also think, and 358 00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 4: I wasn't expecting to come up with this, like in 359 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 4: my handicap, but like, I also think the on field 360 00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:58,600 Speaker 4: matchups sort of point to it as well. NC State 361 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 4: has had them problems with passing explosion this year, also 362 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 4: rushing explosion, Like they tend to give up some long plays. 363 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 4: They're way better at efficient like keeping you off of schedule, 364 00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 4: but this Boston College offense, they couldn't stay on schedule 365 00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 4: if they had a daily planner and a daily assistant 366 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 4: with them. 367 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:16,640 Speaker 2: At all times. 368 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:19,119 Speaker 4: The only thing they can do is fish for long plays, 369 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 4: so all they score their points. J Flowers is a 370 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:25,080 Speaker 4: specific one, the deep shots to him, the speedster on 371 00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:29,200 Speaker 4: the outside, but they've also gotten some long runs as well. Again, 372 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,160 Speaker 4: the efficiency on both of those metric is not there. 373 00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 4: But yeah, but like NC State facilitates some of those 374 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:37,160 Speaker 4: explosive plays, So. 375 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:38,920 Speaker 2: I actually think Boston College is going to score a 376 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:39,760 Speaker 2: little bit more here. 377 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 4: Then, you know, conventional wisdom would dictate against this NC 378 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 4: State defense. And then NC State with the MJ. Morris kid, 379 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:51,160 Speaker 4: he is certainly way better than Chambers. 380 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:52,600 Speaker 2: You know, the nood alarm. 381 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:55,720 Speaker 4: Veteran that they had brought in initially after Devin Leary's 382 00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 4: knocked out for the season. But Andrean Morris has really 383 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:02,640 Speaker 4: flashed and so like, I mean that that kid can 384 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:03,359 Speaker 4: do some stuff. 385 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:05,200 Speaker 2: You knew that that he had a higher. 386 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:08,560 Speaker 4: Ceiling certainly than Chambers, but like you were wondering about 387 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:13,240 Speaker 4: the variants. But so far, he's I mean, it's a 388 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:16,679 Speaker 4: very small sample, but he's he's acquitting himself decently well 389 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:20,200 Speaker 4: in comparison to what Leary did earlier this season. We'll 390 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:22,959 Speaker 4: have to see, like as that sample size gets bigger, 391 00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:25,960 Speaker 4: but I trust this NC State offense a lot more 392 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:28,640 Speaker 4: with him, certainly than I did with Chambers and even 393 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 4: at the end with Leary. So the over on that 394 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 4: one is what I would lean The other ones I 395 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:36,720 Speaker 4: don't have as much of a leanout, but that's one 396 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:37,680 Speaker 4: that I do kind of. 397 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 1: Like, all right, well, let's go to the top five 398 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:43,600 Speaker 1: big games of the week, and we're just gonna start 399 00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 1: out hot, you know, mainly because CCU is number four, 400 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:49,440 Speaker 1: but also because my Longhorns are hosting this game. 401 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:50,439 Speaker 2: That's the real reason. 402 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:54,119 Speaker 3: Bogman, it's number eighteen. 403 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:58,240 Speaker 1: Texas in Austin by seven points versus number four TCU 404 00:18:58,320 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 1: sixty four and a half is. 405 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,679 Speaker 3: A totally year. So thor fill us in how you 406 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:04,640 Speaker 3: think this one's going to play out. 407 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:07,919 Speaker 4: I'm curious to hear your handicap after I'm done talking. 408 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:11,120 Speaker 4: But my my initial you know when when you initially 409 00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 4: saw the seven point line and you know that the 410 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:17,399 Speaker 4: TCU has I mean they've been covering like band winning 411 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:20,280 Speaker 4: of course every game, but like also covering like ban trees. 412 00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:24,160 Speaker 4: Your your initial lean was was TCU. But like when 413 00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:26,360 Speaker 4: when I run my numbers early in the week, those 414 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:29,160 Speaker 4: are a baseline and they get modified by market data 415 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:32,360 Speaker 4: as we go along. It seemed like the books, by 416 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:34,639 Speaker 4: what I mean just by definition of where they dropped 417 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:38,439 Speaker 4: this line, they were anticipating sharp money on Texas and 418 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:41,440 Speaker 4: they got it, uh this week, and and now that 419 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:44,400 Speaker 4: that sharp money, how the market data helped to modify 420 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,800 Speaker 4: my line, which is now Texas minus seven point four. 421 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 4: I I do think TCU, some of the their explosive 422 00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 4: players are going to be there for sure against the 423 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:59,320 Speaker 4: Texas defense. The the TCU offense, though it's fallen into 424 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:03,360 Speaker 4: bouts of beneffficiency even against mediocre defenses this year. That's 425 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:05,920 Speaker 4: what concerns you here because I do think the texts 426 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:07,480 Speaker 4: are going to be able to keep them off schedule. 427 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:09,440 Speaker 2: So you're you're wondering, Like. 428 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:13,119 Speaker 4: I mean, basically, I hate to do a baseball metaphor 429 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:15,359 Speaker 4: because I don't know how many of our it's gonna 430 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,440 Speaker 4: know this one, but likes TCU basically gonna turn into 431 00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 4: Dave Kingman in this game where where you have so 432 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 4: many of the three and out whiffs, but they're gonna 433 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,000 Speaker 4: be swinging from the heels every time and they run 434 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 4: into one, you know, every every four possession, five, you 435 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:32,280 Speaker 4: know whatever. Like I said, I do think those explosive 436 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:36,400 Speaker 4: plays will be there, but it's like there, I feel 437 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 4: like there's gonna be a lot of swinging mess on 438 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,200 Speaker 4: the TCU side as well. And for Texas, this is 439 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 4: this is the spot where you put everything into right, 440 00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:44,480 Speaker 4: like you're now. 441 00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:46,960 Speaker 2: I mean, you know, but last year and you know 442 00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 2: before that, TCU obviously not as respected. 443 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:51,760 Speaker 4: But now this is a team that, by definition of 444 00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:53,600 Speaker 4: the playoff rank as it just came out. 445 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:55,400 Speaker 2: It's projected to be in the playoff. 446 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,600 Speaker 4: This would be an enormous win for Texas even as 447 00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 4: a seven point favorite. I think you're gonna the effort 448 00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:03,400 Speaker 4: on the Texas side with some of that different information 449 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:05,879 Speaker 4: coming in from the market. It took it from a 450 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:08,879 Speaker 4: lean from TCU. For me too, I'm not touching this thing. 451 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,400 Speaker 4: But Bogman, I mean, you're the guy that doesn't miss 452 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,440 Speaker 4: at Texas. Now, I would love to hear how you 453 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:14,680 Speaker 4: see this game. 454 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 1: I mean, look, both teams are going to score, which 455 00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:21,640 Speaker 1: is you know, just we know that because Texas offense 456 00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:26,640 Speaker 1: is unbelievable, especially when yours is right and on schedule, 457 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:30,080 Speaker 1: as you would say thor But you know, they also 458 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 1: love to give up leads. It's one of their favorite things. 459 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:38,000 Speaker 1: So it is so annoying to watch. It's incredibly frustrating. Right, 460 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:40,800 Speaker 1: they were able to hold off and win last week, 461 00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 1: but I don't know, man, they have to have a 462 00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 1: pretty sizable lead I think going into the fourth quarter, 463 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:51,159 Speaker 1: like somewhere between fourteen and seventeen to be able to 464 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:56,199 Speaker 1: sustain this. And it's something that is a problem. And 465 00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:59,920 Speaker 1: the problems are getting more narrow and more focused for Texas, 466 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 1: which is nice because you know, over the last couple 467 00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 1: of years it's been tackling has been the biggest one, 468 00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:09,119 Speaker 1: and then offensive line play and just uh, you know, 469 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,639 Speaker 1: the quarterback play has been an issue since Sam left, 470 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:19,400 Speaker 1: So you know, getting getting the defense to stand up 471 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,480 Speaker 1: with the lead is the big thing. And you know, 472 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 1: even even in a close game where they're not giving 473 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:26,639 Speaker 1: up a lot of points, you know, they blew it 474 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:32,399 Speaker 1: against Bama two. So that's the big thing to me is, uh, 475 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:35,840 Speaker 1: you know, Texas coming out and putting points on the board, 476 00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:39,480 Speaker 1: which I think they will do against anybody, including TCU, 477 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:43,159 Speaker 1: and being able to not give up those big plays 478 00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:48,560 Speaker 1: when it counts, you know, down, you know late, and 479 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:50,800 Speaker 1: when you have a lead, you've got to be able 480 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:54,560 Speaker 1: to sit on it. So let's keep the defense on 481 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:57,280 Speaker 1: the sideline for most of the first half, so they're 482 00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:00,840 Speaker 1: gassed up in the second half. So I want Texas 483 00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:04,320 Speaker 1: to win by holding the ball here really so, which 484 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,320 Speaker 1: means a lot of runs from Bijon, which could mean 485 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:10,360 Speaker 1: a lot of scoring for Texas because when you focus 486 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:14,000 Speaker 1: and give that guy the ball, good things happen. So 487 00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:18,200 Speaker 1: let's keep Beijon running here. The next game, number six 488 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 1: Oregon thirteen and a half point home favorites hosting number 489 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 1: twenty five Washington seventy two and a half is a 490 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,280 Speaker 1: total in this one and it's not the highest we're 491 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 1: going to talk about in these top five games either. 492 00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:32,440 Speaker 1: So Thor, what do you think about this PAC twelve 493 00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:34,440 Speaker 1: matchup between Oregon and Washington. 494 00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 4: I think that total is justified being as high as 495 00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:40,840 Speaker 4: it is. And yeah, and for me this one, it's 496 00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:44,199 Speaker 4: take the dogg or pass. I think Washington matches up 497 00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:47,280 Speaker 4: decently well here and the reason why is because, I 498 00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:49,720 Speaker 4: mean they become one of the more pass halfy teams 499 00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,160 Speaker 4: in the P five with the board taking over and 500 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:57,280 Speaker 4: Oregon's pass defense thanks they have one good cornerback Oregon does. 501 00:23:57,480 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 4: I think we're gonna be talking a lot about more 502 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,320 Speaker 4: during an Fell draft time. But like, outside of that, 503 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 4: there's going back to our word today sev a little 504 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:09,400 Speaker 4: bit like you can both get the completions on them 505 00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:11,680 Speaker 4: and nick them with the short and intermediate stuff. 506 00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:13,440 Speaker 2: You can also beat them over the top. 507 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,240 Speaker 4: Pennix is a solid quarterback and Debor is such a 508 00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:20,600 Speaker 4: great play caller. I think they're gonna be able to 509 00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:24,640 Speaker 4: scheme away from the very isolated strength of the Oregon 510 00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:28,320 Speaker 4: pass defense and move the ball here. And the other 511 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:32,119 Speaker 4: thing is like either that bad Oregon pass defense facilitates 512 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:35,639 Speaker 4: a closer game than the market is expecting, or it 513 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 4: decidedly opens up the possibility of back to our cover. 514 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:41,800 Speaker 4: If I was holding an Oregon minus you know, thirteen 515 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:43,720 Speaker 4: and a half or minus fourteen ticket in this game, 516 00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 4: even up twenty one twenty four in the fourth quarter, oh, 517 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,359 Speaker 4: I'd be sweating ball ats for me. 518 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,800 Speaker 2: This game is Washington or Pass. 519 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:57,600 Speaker 1: Okay, that makes sense because these are the fun games 520 00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:59,119 Speaker 1: to watch, but you don't have to bet on all 521 00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:02,520 Speaker 1: of them. Number nine Alabama eleven and a half point 522 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:06,359 Speaker 1: road favorites at number eleven Old Miss sixty four and 523 00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:06,760 Speaker 1: a half? 524 00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:07,680 Speaker 3: Is it totally here? 525 00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:10,879 Speaker 1: Didn't think this one would be kind of mid tier 526 00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:13,600 Speaker 1: among the big games at this point in the year 527 00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:16,479 Speaker 1: thor but looks like we're gonna get a Clemson in 528 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:20,920 Speaker 1: Bama lists playoff this season. I mean, never count them out, 529 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,040 Speaker 1: but that's what it looks like right now. So how 530 00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:24,760 Speaker 1: do you see this SEC matchup going? 531 00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,440 Speaker 4: Definitely not disappointed that we're getting some new blood in there, 532 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:31,280 Speaker 4: by the way, but yeah, it's good times for this one. 533 00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 4: For me, it's all Miss or Pass. Bama is in 534 00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 4: a classic deflight spot after they took their second loss 535 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:43,520 Speaker 4: last week. Like there, I mean, everything that they were 536 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:47,440 Speaker 4: playing for in the preseason. It's gone now it's over there. 537 00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:50,080 Speaker 4: I mean people are just saying it as their season's over. 538 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:50,479 Speaker 2: It's not. 539 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:53,679 Speaker 4: But like for what they play for, it certainly is. 540 00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,439 Speaker 4: Are you going to get one of your best efforts 541 00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:58,680 Speaker 4: of the season in that spot? I don't think so, 542 00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,720 Speaker 4: particularly when Bama has been bad on the road since 543 00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:04,240 Speaker 4: the start of last season for reasons that none of 544 00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:05,320 Speaker 4: us can really suss out. 545 00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:07,240 Speaker 2: But it just is what it is and it continues 546 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:07,720 Speaker 2: to happen. 547 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:09,880 Speaker 4: And not only that this is a back to back 548 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,840 Speaker 4: travel spot, I feel like this is a really really 549 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:16,879 Speaker 4: bad situational spot for Alabama. Old Miss has an awesome 550 00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:19,520 Speaker 4: run game, which you know they've leaned into it more 551 00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:21,879 Speaker 4: heavily and more heavily and more heavily the less that 552 00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:23,719 Speaker 4: Lane has trusted Jackson Dart. 553 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,399 Speaker 2: But I mean, like you have both Junkins, you have Evans. 554 00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:29,000 Speaker 4: I mean, they even Bentley. We thought Bentley was actually 555 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:33,600 Speaker 4: gonna do stuff this year, But like Dunkins is so good, 556 00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 4: Junkins is like yeah, I mean, we're gonna be talking 557 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,240 Speaker 4: about that kid quite a bit during his NFL Draft thing. 558 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:40,160 Speaker 4: I don't think a lot of people around the country 559 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:44,639 Speaker 4: realize that that kid is a stud Capital S, capital T, 560 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,920 Speaker 4: gapriol u capital D. That kid is real, real good. 561 00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 4: And then you put them with Evans, it almost becomes unfair. 562 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:54,760 Speaker 4: They're they're rushing game and and miss Mississippi is running 563 00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:56,800 Speaker 4: at one of the higher rates of any non option team, 564 00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:59,840 Speaker 4: certainly in the Power five. That running game gets to 565 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:02,600 Speaker 4: he off in this game against what is it down 566 00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:06,320 Speaker 4: Alabama front seven. You can get Alabama on the ground 567 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:08,760 Speaker 4: and Lane Kiffin is going to attempt to do that 568 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:11,320 Speaker 4: as many times as he possibly can, because as you know, 569 00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:13,520 Speaker 4: every time they run the ball, they sprint back up 570 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,840 Speaker 4: to the line. It's another quick handoff or you know, 571 00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:18,360 Speaker 4: maybe they try to play action once every every now 572 00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,960 Speaker 4: and again, but they want to get you on your heels. 573 00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 4: Alabama their starting lineups a little bit down, so it 574 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,000 Speaker 4: is their depth. This just does not feel like a 575 00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:29,560 Speaker 4: great matchup for Alabama. And as always, even though this 576 00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:31,960 Speaker 4: shouldn't be the case anymore this season, based on what 577 00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,359 Speaker 4: Alabama is now, you have to pay a tax on 578 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,119 Speaker 4: Alabama if you want to bet on them, which means 579 00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:40,439 Speaker 4: by definition that you are getting extra credit or extra 580 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,080 Speaker 4: you're getting a bonus or an incentive every time that 581 00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:44,520 Speaker 4: you want to go against them. 582 00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:45,200 Speaker 2: In this game. 583 00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:49,159 Speaker 4: We'll just go objectively by my numbers, my inner vacuum numbers. 584 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,480 Speaker 4: So my number on that game is Alabama minus seven 585 00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:56,320 Speaker 4: point eight. Like that's a like seven in Alabama by 586 00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:58,080 Speaker 4: seven and a half is probably what this line should be. 587 00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,600 Speaker 2: Maybe eight, but it should be we're in there. 588 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:04,800 Speaker 4: But instead, because their name is Alabama, it is Alabama 589 00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,560 Speaker 4: minus twelve or whatever. Those are just three points on 590 00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:09,359 Speaker 4: the line for you in the game where the home 591 00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:12,480 Speaker 4: dog already matches up pretty well, give me the revs. 592 00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:14,520 Speaker 4: And I think they put a real scare in Obama here, 593 00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,520 Speaker 4: and it would not surprise me if they handed Alabama 594 00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:18,720 Speaker 4: the third loss this season. 595 00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:21,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, and that would I mean, you put a fork 596 00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:24,160 Speaker 1: in them at that point because they're absolutely done so 597 00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:26,960 Speaker 1: and and like you said, it's you know, sometimes it's 598 00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:29,239 Speaker 1: hard for these guys to get up after they know 599 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:32,800 Speaker 1: that most likely their season is over. So bagman, who 600 00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:34,800 Speaker 1: you blaking the sec you're gonna get dropped? 601 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:35,280 Speaker 2: Who knows? 602 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,479 Speaker 4: Who knows the tendency is to saveing more than Lane Kiffin, right, 603 00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:41,240 Speaker 4: I think Liane Kiffin has become I would put him 604 00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:44,160 Speaker 4: just well coaching aside. I would put him up with 605 00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:46,480 Speaker 4: the top twenty comedians living on Earth today. 606 00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,200 Speaker 2: He is one of the funniest people that we have alive. 607 00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:52,680 Speaker 2: His tweeted this week where he had the uh, it 608 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:53,239 Speaker 2: was the uh. 609 00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:55,360 Speaker 4: It was a screet or it was a picture he 610 00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,800 Speaker 4: took where he had the his like play calls for 611 00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:01,320 Speaker 4: Alabama and then it was over relaid with the book 612 00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:05,160 Speaker 4: of Nick Saban and his leadership advice to people. Was 613 00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,080 Speaker 4: one of the funniest things that I see on Twitter 614 00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:11,000 Speaker 4: this past month. Lane Kiffin just continuously slays me. Another 615 00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:14,080 Speaker 4: already had this week where it was these lions laying 616 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:15,960 Speaker 4: down in front of in front of a road in 617 00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:18,520 Speaker 4: the Sahara where like these trucks are trying to get by, 618 00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:21,680 Speaker 4: and Lane Kiffin says, this reminds me of where opposing 619 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,280 Speaker 4: defenders lay down against us, you know, basically to stop 620 00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:28,800 Speaker 4: the tempa. The guy's funny as hell, but also in 621 00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,480 Speaker 4: this game again he knows Nick Saban's Tennessee is about 622 00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:34,680 Speaker 4: as well as anybody. It's something that at least you 623 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:36,800 Speaker 4: have to consider a little bit as well. I think 624 00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:38,960 Speaker 4: there are a lot of signs pointing to all miss 625 00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:40,000 Speaker 4: being the correct side here. 626 00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:44,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you. It does look like all miss 627 00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:46,040 Speaker 1: is the correct side there. I don't think I'll be 628 00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,400 Speaker 1: betting that game. How about a G five Top five 629 00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,120 Speaker 1: matchup here? There were number seventeen to lane one and 630 00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:55,280 Speaker 1: a half point favorite hosting UCAFF, who's number twenty two 631 00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:58,360 Speaker 1: fifty four and a half is a total there. How 632 00:29:58,360 --> 00:29:59,640 Speaker 1: are you feeling about this game? 633 00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,960 Speaker 4: This is this was a weird handicap where I was 634 00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:05,000 Speaker 4: going back and forth back and forth on it. It's 635 00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:07,280 Speaker 4: you know, the line is right around pick them. My 636 00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:09,800 Speaker 4: line almost literally is a pick them. 637 00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:13,480 Speaker 2: I have UCF. 638 00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:15,920 Speaker 4: Minus zero point one point, so it's basically a pick them. 639 00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:18,520 Speaker 4: It's tough for me because there are certain things that 640 00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:21,160 Speaker 4: that Tulane can do that is going to give u 641 00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,440 Speaker 4: CF problems. For instance, I I think they can hinder 642 00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,480 Speaker 4: UCF's ability to at will get the five and six 643 00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:30,280 Speaker 4: yard runs to lane is a very very good defense 644 00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:32,160 Speaker 4: this year, you know, I mean that that's a big 645 00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:33,960 Speaker 4: part of the reason why they've jumped up this year. 646 00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:35,400 Speaker 2: Very stingy defense. 647 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:38,640 Speaker 4: And you can keep UCF off schedule, you can take 648 00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:42,000 Speaker 4: down the whole, the whole circus tent because then John 649 00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,400 Speaker 4: Reese Palmley has to throw on third and long and 650 00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:48,120 Speaker 4: and and problems arise out of that. But u CF 651 00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,760 Speaker 4: also can do some things that I think will affect 652 00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:54,040 Speaker 4: Tulane as well. It's a game that's right around to 653 00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:56,280 Speaker 4: pick them that I feel should be right. 654 00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:58,960 Speaker 2: Around to pick them. So for for for that game, 655 00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:01,680 Speaker 2: it's I got to stay away and on the total. 656 00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,760 Speaker 4: My adjusted total is within two points of the Vegas 657 00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:07,320 Speaker 4: total as well. I think that thing comes down to 658 00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:10,000 Speaker 4: ancillary contextual things during the game that we can't predict 659 00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:10,840 Speaker 4: in advance either. 660 00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,160 Speaker 3: So that's a watcher and not a better It's a 661 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:14,200 Speaker 3: it's gonna be. 662 00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:14,880 Speaker 2: A super fun game. 663 00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:16,440 Speaker 4: I was hoping to have a side on that one, 664 00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:18,320 Speaker 4: but I just came out of the handicap and it's like, man, 665 00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:20,600 Speaker 4: I just can't find the value here. 666 00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:22,680 Speaker 2: I'm rooting around for rooting around four, but I just 667 00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:23,440 Speaker 2: couldn't find. 668 00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:26,280 Speaker 3: You the last one at ACC matchup. 669 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:28,440 Speaker 1: Like I said, the seventy two and a half was 670 00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:30,560 Speaker 1: not the biggest over that we have on this list 671 00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,280 Speaker 1: this week. Wake Forest a three and a half point 672 00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:37,280 Speaker 1: at home favorite hosting number fifteen UNC seventy seven, and 673 00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:40,200 Speaker 1: that dropped by half a point by the way since 674 00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:41,920 Speaker 1: I started this. I believe it was seventy seven and 675 00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,800 Speaker 1: a half yesterday, but seventy seven is a total in 676 00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:48,080 Speaker 1: this game, or I mean, I don't think I would 677 00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:50,800 Speaker 1: touch seventy seven with a ten foot poll, but watching 678 00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:54,680 Speaker 1: UNC's defense, it makes me think maybe I would take it. 679 00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:57,000 Speaker 3: So how do you see this game going? 680 00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:00,719 Speaker 4: Yeah, my systems total on that game nine and a half, 681 00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,560 Speaker 4: and like, I definitely could not bet the under. 682 00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:04,600 Speaker 2: I'll put it that way. 683 00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:06,520 Speaker 4: I you know, I'm not sure that I'll be holding 684 00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:08,760 Speaker 4: a ticket on the over, but I definitely could not 685 00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:13,520 Speaker 4: go under UNC's defense. Like you mentioned, they will give 686 00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:17,080 Speaker 4: any way that you wanted to derive offense, UNC's defense is. 687 00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:17,920 Speaker 2: Happy to give it to you. 688 00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:20,680 Speaker 4: So I mean, like Wake Force there often should have 689 00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:24,040 Speaker 4: a pretty good performance here and the Wake So on 690 00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:25,600 Speaker 4: the wake Forest defensive. 691 00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:27,160 Speaker 2: Side, they're okay at holding up. 692 00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:29,120 Speaker 4: Against the run, like no great shakes, but like at 693 00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:32,840 Speaker 4: least okay against the pass. They stink Drake May is 694 00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:36,240 Speaker 4: going to go off in this game, and so like 695 00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:37,840 Speaker 4: like I sort of expect you and C to score 696 00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:39,440 Speaker 4: it will, but I also expect U and C to 697 00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:42,040 Speaker 4: give up points of will as well to the same 698 00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:44,440 Speaker 4: heartman led attack on the other side. So I mean, 699 00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:47,160 Speaker 4: like for me, I couldn't look at the under. I 700 00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:52,040 Speaker 4: do slightly lean unc in the handicap, but it's hard 701 00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:54,400 Speaker 4: for me to say because like I haven't trusted that 702 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,760 Speaker 4: team a lot this year. But like you know, getting 703 00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:00,440 Speaker 4: the three and a half with them against the super 704 00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:04,239 Speaker 4: shoddy Wake for his secondary and pass defense, that's that's 705 00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,320 Speaker 4: probably where I lean on the side. My my justed 706 00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:08,880 Speaker 4: line in the game is wake Forest minus two point seven. 707 00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:12,120 Speaker 4: But I I can't bet wake Forest and I cannot 708 00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:14,320 Speaker 4: bet the under the other two or lanes. 709 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, I understand that's in. 710 00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:18,480 Speaker 4: A prop game, a fun prop game there, because this 711 00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:21,200 Speaker 4: is it's gonna be two stats. 712 00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:24,680 Speaker 3: What is Drake May's passing prop gonna be five hundred yards? 713 00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:25,520 Speaker 3: I mean, is gonna be. 714 00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,200 Speaker 2: They couldnot They could not set that high enough. 715 00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:31,080 Speaker 4: In my opinion, I'll be fascinated to see where they 716 00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,440 Speaker 4: drop it, and I'll be there because I'll be hitting 717 00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:35,920 Speaker 4: refresh and popping a bed in real quick. 718 00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:39,480 Speaker 1: Absolutely, Uh, let's go to your pick store at the 719 00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,240 Speaker 1: end here, So I leave this up to you. Anything 720 00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:45,360 Speaker 1: that uh you got a nice lean on and you 721 00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,440 Speaker 1: want to give us here that you know, uh, is 722 00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:50,480 Speaker 1: either in your article or a different one. 723 00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:53,680 Speaker 4: Sure, yeah, I mean, let's let's go with Uh, we'll 724 00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:55,960 Speaker 4: go with one power five game and one G five game. 725 00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:56,440 Speaker 2: How about that? 726 00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:56,800 Speaker 3: All right? 727 00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:59,400 Speaker 4: I do not believe that we have talked about Iowa 728 00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:00,520 Speaker 4: State and oklahore Aloma State. 729 00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:03,000 Speaker 2: Uh, this is an easy Ioways State back for me. 730 00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:06,160 Speaker 4: You were talking about sticking the fork in a in 731 00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:09,800 Speaker 4: Alabama before the the fork coming out of Oklahoma State's 732 00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,160 Speaker 4: back at this point, it's in the Guinness Book of 733 00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:14,399 Speaker 4: World Records. You can see you can see the fork 734 00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:16,280 Speaker 4: coming out of their back from space. 735 00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:17,160 Speaker 2: Uh. 736 00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:20,000 Speaker 4: Oklahoma State, not only I mean Spencer Sanders. Of course, 737 00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,560 Speaker 4: it looks like he's not gonna play again, which he 738 00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:24,759 Speaker 4: didn't last week, even though they were sort of insinuating 739 00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:27,360 Speaker 4: then he caught. You're starting to hear reports now that 740 00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,920 Speaker 4: Spencer Sanders is out for the season. That has not 741 00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:32,680 Speaker 4: been confirmed, and it will not be confirmed because Mike 742 00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:34,480 Speaker 4: Gundy is not going to tell us any of that stuff. 743 00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:37,239 Speaker 4: But UH, let's just say I would be very surprised 744 00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,920 Speaker 4: if Spencer Sanders is out there. I I you know, 745 00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:43,000 Speaker 4: in in instances like this, I like to tune into 746 00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:46,160 Speaker 4: the coaches press conferences and and and start to play 747 00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:49,000 Speaker 4: a little bit of pop psychologists and parsing through the 748 00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:51,240 Speaker 4: you know, the lines of what you're seeing with the quotes. 749 00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:54,759 Speaker 4: Mike Gundhy this week was way more than in the past, 750 00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:58,200 Speaker 4: speaking very specifically about his backup quarterbacks, about his plan 751 00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:01,160 Speaker 4: with the backup quarterbacks. He was fielding questions on if 752 00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,880 Speaker 4: Spencer Sanders was going to come back next year. The 753 00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:07,520 Speaker 4: way it was he was sort of addressing it. Again, 754 00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:09,239 Speaker 4: you have to read between the lines because he ain't 755 00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:11,480 Speaker 4: gonna tell you, but it was sort of like a 756 00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:15,200 Speaker 4: wake for Spencer Sanders. Again, I would be very surprised 757 00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:16,640 Speaker 4: if if Spencer Sanders was out there. 758 00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:18,359 Speaker 2: So you have that, you know. 759 00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:19,920 Speaker 4: And then you're gonna go to the wrong gold kid 760 00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:23,280 Speaker 4: or whatever his name is, and then maybe the Gundy 761 00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:26,239 Speaker 4: Sun was it gun or Gundhy or whatever, the. 762 00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,319 Speaker 3: One that was shaking in the gift Yeah, pork. 763 00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:30,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, we were supposed to see that kid last week, 764 00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,440 Speaker 4: and then Gundhy just started the other kid unexpectedly. We'll 765 00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,960 Speaker 4: see how that goes over at Thanksgiving dinner. But not 766 00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:38,919 Speaker 4: good times for them. But beyond that Oklahoma State there, 767 00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:40,920 Speaker 4: I mean, it's not just the quarterback thing. They have 768 00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,200 Speaker 4: injuries all over the roster. We're talking about this a 769 00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:45,360 Speaker 4: little bit last week, but like there's like four or 770 00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,400 Speaker 4: five different position groups that are severely compromised on the 771 00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:52,040 Speaker 4: Oklahoma State side, including their offensive line, certainly wide receiver 772 00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:55,160 Speaker 4: and in the second theory as well. You have that stuff, 773 00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:58,160 Speaker 4: and then you know you've taken these multiple losses now, 774 00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:01,680 Speaker 4: both of them in blow fashion. I mean, they played 775 00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:04,399 Speaker 4: Kansas State and then they played Kansas To see if 776 00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:06,799 Speaker 4: I had the combined I can't find it quick enough 777 00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,520 Speaker 4: to but anyway, Uh, they've gotten their butts kicked in 778 00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:13,400 Speaker 4: in consecutive weeks. It wasn't just the you know, a 779 00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:17,560 Speaker 4: depreciated roster as you know, you know, being a Kansas fan. 780 00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:20,960 Speaker 4: I watched every snap of last week's game. It was 781 00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:23,080 Speaker 4: also like there didn't seem to be much of a 782 00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:26,919 Speaker 4: cohesive plan on the Oklahoma State side. Like the first 783 00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:29,680 Speaker 4: two drives they come out and this third string quarterback 784 00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:32,200 Speaker 4: we've never heard of before, who wasn't even supposed to 785 00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:34,640 Speaker 4: start if if Spencer Sanders is out, that was. 786 00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:36,320 Speaker 2: Supposed to be Mike Gundy's kid. 787 00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,239 Speaker 4: Mike Gundy bypasses his own kid to go with this 788 00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:41,839 Speaker 4: other kid that we don't know, and he throws an 789 00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:43,560 Speaker 4: interception of their first two drives. 790 00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:46,439 Speaker 1: It's likes too. I mean, Holgerson did that a couple 791 00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:47,279 Speaker 1: of years back, too. 792 00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:49,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, well it's like what are we what are we 793 00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:51,680 Speaker 2: doing here? And then, like I said, the whole plan 794 00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:52,640 Speaker 2: was just all wonky. 795 00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:55,040 Speaker 4: They and then and then they, I mean Oklahoma State's 796 00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:58,040 Speaker 4: defense turned Devin Neil into the second coming of the 797 00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:01,160 Speaker 4: Kansas comic Gale Sayers. I mean he had like three 798 00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,480 Speaker 4: hundred Devin Neil had like three hundred and fifty total 799 00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:06,879 Speaker 4: yards from scrimmage. They couldn't tackle the kid. I mean, 800 00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:10,360 Speaker 4: you know, so, like I guess what I'm trying to 801 00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:12,400 Speaker 4: say is it's not just attrition on the roster. 802 00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:14,359 Speaker 3: It's also it. 803 00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:15,360 Speaker 2: Seems like the coach. 804 00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:18,600 Speaker 4: I'm sorry, mister Gundy, but it doesn't seem like your 805 00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:21,320 Speaker 4: coaching staff is quite as engaged as maybe it should 806 00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:25,120 Speaker 4: be when you're a little bit outgunned because of circumstantial things. 807 00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:29,000 Speaker 2: Not only that, and maybe you know, maybe. 808 00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:31,640 Speaker 4: This goes in conjunction with that, the team didn't appear 809 00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:33,879 Speaker 4: to be give a great effort either. Like you think 810 00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:35,719 Speaker 4: about if you're like a young kid. You're like a 811 00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:39,520 Speaker 4: red shirt sophomore or you know, or a redshirt fresh 812 00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:41,359 Speaker 4: and whatever, and it's like, oh, you know, the kid 813 00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:43,680 Speaker 4: ahead of me is injured. You know, you think you 814 00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:45,520 Speaker 4: come out and you play it with your hair on fire. 815 00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:48,359 Speaker 4: I wasn't really seeing that either. This seems like an 816 00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:51,160 Speaker 4: Oklahoma State team that wants the regular season to be over, 817 00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:53,719 Speaker 4: and maybe I should take the word regular out of 818 00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:57,960 Speaker 4: that sentence. They just seem like they want to be done. Meanwhile, 819 00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,839 Speaker 4: with Iowa State, it's basically the opp Now, this game 820 00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:05,840 Speaker 4: isn't a names, but everything else situationally circumstantially is pointing 821 00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:08,959 Speaker 4: at Iowa State, including the fact where they come into 822 00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:12,719 Speaker 4: this game four and five. Iowa State does. Iowa State 823 00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:14,680 Speaker 4: needs to win two of their final three games to 824 00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:17,879 Speaker 4: go bowling. Matt Campbell has made a habit of going 825 00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:20,880 Speaker 4: bowling almost dang near every years that he's been in ames. 826 00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:24,640 Speaker 4: Iowa State next week has Texas Tech week after they 827 00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:28,319 Speaker 4: have TCU. They certainly cannot bank on beating TCU. At 828 00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:31,440 Speaker 4: least to me, this is a must win game for 829 00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:34,560 Speaker 4: Iowa State to make a ball game Oklahoma State. Fortunately 830 00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:36,760 Speaker 4: for them, they already locked up the bull Berth before 831 00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:39,360 Speaker 4: all this crap happened. They do have their six wins. 832 00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:42,520 Speaker 4: Iowa State has all the motivation in this game and 833 00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:44,920 Speaker 4: where they're playing this sort of lame duck upon and 834 00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:48,560 Speaker 4: I expect Iowa State to pretty easily handle Oklahoma State 835 00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,319 Speaker 4: and in that spot, and then I promise you a 836 00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:55,080 Speaker 4: G five game, bag man. There's actually a couple for 837 00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:57,279 Speaker 4: me to choose from here. I'll just toss both of 838 00:38:57,320 --> 00:38:59,920 Speaker 4: them match how about that? Okay, all right, I like it, 839 00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,719 Speaker 4: And since we're going along with the quarterback status thing, 840 00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:05,440 Speaker 4: we'll just continue along the same lines. It seems like 841 00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:08,160 Speaker 4: freaking every game that you're handicapped, there's questions with that. 842 00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:12,160 Speaker 4: Mean yeah, but like today we learned that, uh, Grayson 843 00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:14,560 Speaker 4: McCall is gonna miss the next three to six Basically, 844 00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:16,839 Speaker 4: Grace McCall is off for the rest of their regular season, 845 00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:20,799 Speaker 4: and they are they're crossing their fingers and praying to 846 00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:22,960 Speaker 4: the gods that they get them back for the ball season. 847 00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:24,120 Speaker 2: I think is what it is. 848 00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:28,520 Speaker 4: But in my handicap, even before McCall was out, I 849 00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:32,279 Speaker 4: was leaning the Southern Miss side. But like I I'd 850 00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:34,520 Speaker 4: gotten burned by by Southern Mess last week. So I 851 00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:37,880 Speaker 4: was like, yeah, do you want to you know, should 852 00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:38,319 Speaker 4: we take it? 853 00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:40,200 Speaker 3: Gonna go to the well again? Yeah? 854 00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:42,399 Speaker 4: But then the second I heard the confirmed news on 855 00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:45,719 Speaker 4: on McCall, we smashed that one real quick. I got, 856 00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:47,040 Speaker 4: I got Southern Mess plus six. 857 00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:48,640 Speaker 2: I believe it's well. 858 00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:49,920 Speaker 4: It was down at least a five and a half 859 00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:51,719 Speaker 4: before we started recording. I don't know if it's come 860 00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:54,799 Speaker 4: down anymore than that. In my opinion, it should that 861 00:39:54,800 --> 00:39:56,840 Speaker 4: that line should be lower than that. In fact, I 862 00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:59,239 Speaker 4: think you can make an argument even on the road 863 00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:01,759 Speaker 4: that's so Miss should be favored in this game without 864 00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:05,239 Speaker 4: Grayson McCall. Grason McCall is worth more points on the 865 00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:08,440 Speaker 4: spread than Dane or any player in the NCAA. I 866 00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:10,400 Speaker 4: put him in the top ten, probably the top five, 867 00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:12,960 Speaker 4: just in terms of how much you discount the player. 868 00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:16,200 Speaker 4: I was showing line value on Southern Miss when McCall 869 00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:19,040 Speaker 4: was playing. Now, now my line was higher a course, 870 00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:21,040 Speaker 4: and and that one was too. You know, it was 871 00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:24,040 Speaker 4: eleven and a half. I believe before the market only 872 00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:26,680 Speaker 4: downgraded Coastal by was it? 873 00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:27,240 Speaker 1: Uh? 874 00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:30,879 Speaker 4: Is that I'm not as good as the five five 875 00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:32,480 Speaker 4: and a half points or whatever. 876 00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:33,959 Speaker 2: That's not enough. 877 00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:37,520 Speaker 4: Grayson McCall's were down year ten, you know, on the spread, 878 00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:40,520 Speaker 4: and that's not even accounting for the fact that I 879 00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:43,239 Speaker 4: thought there was a line value on them before. And 880 00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:47,440 Speaker 4: not only that, like contextually circumstantially, Coastal Carolina has been 881 00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:49,520 Speaker 4: one of the luckiest teams in the entire nation this 882 00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:53,160 Speaker 4: year in terms of second order wins and just the 883 00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:55,279 Speaker 4: eye test, but like the second order wins thing, just 884 00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:55,839 Speaker 4: lay it out. 885 00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:58,680 Speaker 2: You know where uh Coastal Carolina is is. 886 00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:01,880 Speaker 4: They've won eight games, eight and one right, and the 887 00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:04,760 Speaker 4: second order wins they only have six point zero six flat. 888 00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:08,880 Speaker 4: So essentially they have benefited from two extra wins just 889 00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:14,640 Speaker 4: from luck and circumstance. And you can just luck at circumstances. 890 00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:17,000 Speaker 4: You could just call that Grayson McCall and a little 891 00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:19,680 Speaker 4: bit of Jamie Chadwell. It's those two that are overcoming 892 00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:22,520 Speaker 4: these bad circumstances that the rest of the roster puts 893 00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:25,839 Speaker 4: the team into situationally game and game out. Coming into 894 00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:28,720 Speaker 4: this season, Coastal Carolina had one of the least experienced 895 00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:31,320 Speaker 4: rosters in the entire nation. They only had three offensive 896 00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:33,520 Speaker 4: starters returning. McCall is one of them. That's the one 897 00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:35,920 Speaker 4: that mattered I think they only had five on defense, 898 00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:38,479 Speaker 4: so they were like in the one twenties in terms 899 00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:40,440 Speaker 4: of like returning experience or whatever. 900 00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:42,800 Speaker 2: Grayson McCall plus Chadwell. 901 00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:45,400 Speaker 4: Chadwell is an awesome coach who absolutely should be a 902 00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:47,560 Speaker 4: P five head coach next year, and I expected him 903 00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:50,400 Speaker 4: to be. Those two guys are overcoming these You know, 904 00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:52,640 Speaker 4: they're keeping it close, not only but also you know, 905 00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:55,680 Speaker 4: stealing some wins at the end. Now, not only do 906 00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:58,920 Speaker 4: you have the attrition thing of just objectively before you 907 00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:03,600 Speaker 4: talk about anything else, you're subtracting somewhere between depending on 908 00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:05,560 Speaker 4: who you talk to, eight to twelve points off the 909 00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:08,319 Speaker 4: line because of the McCall loss. You also need to 910 00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:11,400 Speaker 4: subtract that circumstantial luck as well, because this is not 911 00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:14,640 Speaker 4: an eight win team even with McCall. Qualitatively, they're a 912 00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:17,760 Speaker 4: six win team right That stuff's going away without McCall 913 00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:21,120 Speaker 4: in there. So I mean, this is an enormous downgrade 914 00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:23,920 Speaker 4: the other way. Not only that, like I said before, 915 00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:26,279 Speaker 4: it was sort of talking about I think Southern Miss 916 00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:29,040 Speaker 4: matchup decently well anyway in this game, and now they 917 00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:32,719 Speaker 4: match up much better. Southern misstakes away your run game 918 00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:35,239 Speaker 4: because their defensive front is really good. Their linebacking corps 919 00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:37,280 Speaker 4: is really good, and they create a ton of havoc. 920 00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:39,920 Speaker 4: Their pass rush is really good as well. So they 921 00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:42,040 Speaker 4: are going to be in the backfield the entire game. 922 00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:45,080 Speaker 4: I think they're gonna shut off the faucet of Coastal 923 00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:49,480 Speaker 4: Carolina's running game. That's gonna force Bryce Carpenter, Coastal Carolina's backup. 924 00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:53,000 Speaker 4: And I will say for Bryce Carpenter, at least he's experience, right, 925 00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:55,120 Speaker 4: Like it's not like, yeah, you know, it's not like 926 00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:59,080 Speaker 4: the before, right, It's not like that Crapasoli guy we 927 00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:01,840 Speaker 4: were talking about from Meta the first three or whatever. 928 00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:04,200 Speaker 4: So I mean, like Carpenter has been in but like 929 00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:08,840 Speaker 4: I mean, Carpenter's are paint by numbers, veteran backup. He's 930 00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:11,080 Speaker 4: going to just try to keep them in between the lanes. 931 00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:12,520 Speaker 4: He's not gonna be doing anything. 932 00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:14,600 Speaker 2: Outside of he's for you exactly. 933 00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:17,080 Speaker 4: But the stuff so McCall was doing outside of that, 934 00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:19,399 Speaker 4: that's how Colsta Carolina was winning some of these games. 935 00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:20,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, so that goes away. 936 00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:23,319 Speaker 4: Now they play different, and again, if Southern miss takes 937 00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:26,040 Speaker 4: away Coastal Carolina's running game, like I expect them to 938 00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:28,399 Speaker 4: this triple option team that runs more. 939 00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:30,680 Speaker 2: I think that people think they take that away. 940 00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:33,040 Speaker 4: Now all of a sudden, it's Bryce Carpenter sitting back 941 00:43:33,040 --> 00:43:35,560 Speaker 4: there in the pocket behind not a very good offensive 942 00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:38,000 Speaker 4: line and one of the G five's best pass rushes. 943 00:43:38,320 --> 00:43:40,920 Speaker 4: That's advantaged Southern Mess. I think Southern Miss should be 944 00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:43,800 Speaker 4: favored in this game. With Grayson MCCONNAT play, I expect 945 00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:44,600 Speaker 4: Southern Miss to win. 946 00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:46,560 Speaker 2: I won't. I won't consider it an upset. 947 00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:48,319 Speaker 4: The one other one I just wanted to say really 948 00:43:48,360 --> 00:43:51,120 Speaker 4: quick with with with the quarterback thing I'm taking. I'm 949 00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:53,360 Speaker 4: laying the points with UA B against North Texas in 950 00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:53,799 Speaker 4: this game. 951 00:43:54,320 --> 00:43:54,440 Speaker 1: UH. 952 00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:58,279 Speaker 4: Yesterday on Tuesday, the UAB that their new head coach, 953 00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:00,960 Speaker 4: Brian Vincent. He came out and said that that Hopkins 954 00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:04,279 Speaker 4: the quarterback for UAB that have been out for at 955 00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:07,200 Speaker 4: this point, like you know, a game and most of 956 00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:10,120 Speaker 4: the other game before that, or no, I'm sorry two 957 00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:12,160 Speaker 4: plus games because he got knocked out against. 958 00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:14,080 Speaker 2: WKU three weeks ago. 959 00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:18,120 Speaker 4: And then UAB had lost that game against WKU basically 960 00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:20,680 Speaker 4: only because Hopkins went out, like they just couldn't move 961 00:44:20,680 --> 00:44:22,720 Speaker 4: the ball with Zeno the rest of game. Then UAB 962 00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:25,759 Speaker 4: had lost their next two games with ZnO start. Zeno 963 00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:28,680 Speaker 4: is not a very good quarterback. Right now, they're. 964 00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:29,640 Speaker 2: Getting Hopkins back. 965 00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:33,440 Speaker 4: That's that is scary for North Texas year because UA 966 00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:36,799 Speaker 4: B is super duper viable with Hopkins. They have they 967 00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:39,080 Speaker 4: have the really strong defense, they have the really good 968 00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:41,600 Speaker 4: run game as well. UA beat Going back to the 969 00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:44,680 Speaker 4: year before they got the thing canceled, they have never 970 00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:46,359 Speaker 4: finished with the program came. 971 00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:47,000 Speaker 2: That was like in. 972 00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:50,960 Speaker 4: Twenty twenty seventeen, twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, somewhere in there. 973 00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:53,520 Speaker 4: They have not had a losing season since then. They 974 00:44:53,600 --> 00:44:56,440 Speaker 4: won six games that year before they got canceled. Then 975 00:44:56,480 --> 00:44:58,279 Speaker 4: they were off for a couple of years, and every 976 00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:00,879 Speaker 4: year since then they've won eight or more. Right now 977 00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:04,200 Speaker 4: they're sitting at I believe four and five just because 978 00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:06,480 Speaker 4: they've lost these three consecutive games without Hopkins. 979 00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:07,640 Speaker 2: Now Hopkins is back. 980 00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:09,560 Speaker 4: By the way, in that WKU game where they couldn't 981 00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:12,359 Speaker 4: move the ball without him, he had two completions for 982 00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:14,480 Speaker 4: like seventy yards before he went out and then all 983 00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:16,640 Speaker 4: of a sudden, now they couldn't move the ball. It's 984 00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:19,160 Speaker 4: a totally different team with Hopkins in there. He will 985 00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:22,520 Speaker 4: be in there in this game and UAV matches up 986 00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:25,479 Speaker 4: very well when you know that that he's there. First 987 00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:27,680 Speaker 4: of all, UAB the running game can tee off on 988 00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:31,040 Speaker 4: this undersize not very active front seven in North Texas. 989 00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:33,040 Speaker 4: And then on the other side, the best thing about 990 00:45:33,160 --> 00:45:36,279 Speaker 4: ua B is their pass defense. Austin ouwned the North 991 00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:39,040 Speaker 4: Texas quarterback. He's put up some really good counting stats 992 00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:41,399 Speaker 4: this year. You look into his PFF like the big 993 00:45:41,440 --> 00:45:44,520 Speaker 4: time throws against the turnover worthy throws, he has a 994 00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:48,120 Speaker 4: twenty one to sixteen ratio in those, whereas he whereas 995 00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:50,239 Speaker 4: he has a twenty eight to eleven TDI and T 996 00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:53,479 Speaker 4: ratio just in the counting stats. Austin Oon hasn't played 997 00:45:53,480 --> 00:45:55,080 Speaker 4: any pass defenses whatsoever. 998 00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:56,239 Speaker 2: North Texas only played. 999 00:45:56,320 --> 00:46:00,239 Speaker 1: He's also our age right, like he's the oldest in 1000 00:46:00,320 --> 00:46:01,520 Speaker 1: quarterback in the NCAA. 1001 00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:02,399 Speaker 3: Is an he thirty one? 1002 00:46:02,800 --> 00:46:06,120 Speaker 4: He is super old. Yes, and so they played these 1003 00:46:06,160 --> 00:46:08,880 Speaker 4: three defenses in the top one hundred. But as p 1004 00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:12,160 Speaker 4: plus defense, all three of those defenses are way better 1005 00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:13,880 Speaker 4: against the run than the past. 1006 00:46:14,200 --> 00:46:15,879 Speaker 2: I haven't gone through the numbers. 1007 00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:17,960 Speaker 4: Enough to say this definitively, so I'm gonna couch it 1008 00:46:18,000 --> 00:46:20,640 Speaker 4: a little bit. I believe that Austinon has played the 1009 00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:24,400 Speaker 4: worst procession of pass defenses this season of any quarterback 1010 00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:26,680 Speaker 4: in the nation. I might be off by one or 1011 00:46:26,719 --> 00:46:28,520 Speaker 4: two because I have a bunch of data on all 1012 00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:31,719 Speaker 4: of them. The procession of awful pass defenses. North Texas's 1013 00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:34,839 Speaker 4: face is incredible. They want to spread you out. They 1014 00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:36,520 Speaker 4: want to throw with and then and then run a 1015 00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:38,920 Speaker 4: little bit as well. UAB is not only going to 1016 00:46:38,960 --> 00:46:41,680 Speaker 4: take away their passing game, They're gonna turn Austinon over 1017 00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:44,480 Speaker 4: multiple times in this game. I'm taking the over on 1018 00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:48,320 Speaker 4: any Austinon interception thing. And then the running game of 1019 00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:50,680 Speaker 4: North Texas. You're like, oh, maybe they can turn back 1020 00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:53,560 Speaker 4: to that. UAB also has a solid run defense, but 1021 00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:56,759 Speaker 4: North Texas their top two running backs, Oscar Adaway and 1022 00:46:57,480 --> 00:46:59,799 Speaker 4: is Ja Johnson, they were out for the last game. 1023 00:47:00,000 --> 00:47:01,320 Speaker 4: I don't know I they're going to play in this one. 1024 00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:02,439 Speaker 4: I love you AB. 1025 00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:04,040 Speaker 2: If you only have to lay six points in this 1026 00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:05,840 Speaker 2: game against North Texas. 1027 00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:08,080 Speaker 3: All right, easy, pas, Thank you so much. 1028 00:47:08,120 --> 00:47:11,680 Speaker 1: Thor at thor ku on the Twitter machine and thor 1029 00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:14,160 Speaker 1: just give us a quick rundown of what's coming up 1030 00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:15,120 Speaker 1: for the rest of the week again. 1031 00:47:15,320 --> 00:47:17,919 Speaker 4: Yeah, definitely check out my Best Bets Callumn that comes 1032 00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:20,320 Speaker 4: out on Thursday mornings on Betting Pros. Go through the 1033 00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:23,319 Speaker 4: top ten games of the week, and then definitely check 1034 00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:27,040 Speaker 4: out my live show with Mike Farrell starting at ten 1035 00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:30,520 Speaker 4: am Eastern. You know how bad I am at the 1036 00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:33,200 Speaker 4: times I was Boggman, but ten am Eastern to eleven 1037 00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:34,000 Speaker 4: thirty Eastern. 1038 00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:35,160 Speaker 2: It runs for ninety minutes. 1039 00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:38,240 Speaker 4: We go through as many games we can, handicap the sides, totals, 1040 00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:41,120 Speaker 4: props and everything like that, and take audience questions. It's 1041 00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:43,800 Speaker 4: live on YouTube on the Betting Pros channel. I tweet 1042 00:47:43,840 --> 00:47:45,719 Speaker 4: out the link and Betting pro tweets out the link. 1043 00:47:45,760 --> 00:47:47,480 Speaker 4: But if you just go onto the Betting Pros page 1044 00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:50,359 Speaker 4: on Saturday morning at ten am Eastern, you'll be able 1045 00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:52,440 Speaker 4: to see that. So definitely check that out. Come in 1046 00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:54,560 Speaker 4: and ask a question. We will answer it, and it 1047 00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:57,759 Speaker 4: doesn't matter how crazy off the board it is. Find 1048 00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:00,319 Speaker 4: us the weirdest, most you know prop out there that 1049 00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:02,320 Speaker 4: no one would give you an answer on. I promise 1050 00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:04,600 Speaker 4: you we will answer you, and and you'll give you 1051 00:48:04,600 --> 00:48:05,279 Speaker 4: a good opinion on. 1052 00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:08,080 Speaker 1: I got to wake up early and get in on 1053 00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:09,600 Speaker 1: that and just throw a weird one at you. 1054 00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:13,760 Speaker 3: One of these weeks, So anyone out there please don't shout. 1055 00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:16,799 Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, it's fun, man, come on and talk with 1056 00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:18,440 Speaker 1: the guys, and the same thing for us. We do 1057 00:48:18,480 --> 00:48:21,560 Speaker 1: a discord right before we record this show on Wednesdays 1058 00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:24,040 Speaker 1: at five easterns, so if you guys want to come 1059 00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:26,520 Speaker 1: on there, it's a discord betting pros discord. It is 1060 00:48:26,560 --> 00:48:29,359 Speaker 1: free to join, so please check that out and ask 1061 00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:31,360 Speaker 1: us a question. We'd love to interact with you guys, 1062 00:48:31,400 --> 00:48:33,440 Speaker 1: So that is gonna wrap it up for us. You 1063 00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:35,879 Speaker 1: could follow me at Boglin Sports of course on see 1064 00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:37,600 Speaker 1: if you're winning edge with my guys Nick and Xavier. 1065 00:48:37,719 --> 00:48:39,239 Speaker 1: That came out a little bit earlier in the week, 1066 00:48:39,480 --> 00:48:41,960 Speaker 1: and I'll be having my article come out same day 1067 00:48:41,960 --> 00:48:42,480 Speaker 1: as Thores. 1068 00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:45,000 Speaker 3: But Thors the Homelowner not a surprise. 1069 00:48:44,960 --> 00:48:47,759 Speaker 1: Five and five this week, so still sixteen games up, 1070 00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:50,560 Speaker 1: so we'll take it. Only one losing week the whole 1071 00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:53,280 Speaker 1: year and sixteen games up I feel pretty good about. 1072 00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:56,720 Speaker 1: So check that out on Thursday or Friday if you would, 1073 00:48:56,920 --> 00:48:58,399 Speaker 1: and that is going to wrap it up for us. 1074 00:48:58,600 --> 00:49:00,600 Speaker 1: Have a great weekend, enjoy the game, and we'll see 1075 00:49:00,600 --> 00:49:01,480 Speaker 1: you guys next week. 1076 00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:03,320 Speaker 3: Good luck, everybody,