Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. They say's the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Daybreak Europe podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or
Speaker 1: wherever you listen. It's Tuesday, the eleventh of February in London.
Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Carroll.
Speaker 2: And I'm Lizzie Burden. Coming up today.
Speaker 3: The EU says it will respond to Trump's tariff plan
Speaker 3: on steel and aluminium with countermeasures.
Speaker 1: Ahead of the EU's warning shot, Donald Trump warns that
Speaker 1: tariff right may go higher than twenty five percent.
Speaker 2: Plus wait and see.
Speaker 3: BP pledges to lay out plans for a strategy reset
Speaker 3: as results underwhelm.
Speaker 4: Let's start with the round up of our top stories.
Speaker 3: The European Union says it will respond to any tariffs
Speaker 3: the US might impose on it. The warning comes after
Speaker 3: President Trump pushed forward with his pledge to place a
Speaker 3: twenty five percent tariff on all US steel and aluminium imputs.
Speaker 3: The US Administration says the broad tariffs will go into
Speaker 3: effect on the twelfth of March, referring directly to the
Speaker 3: proposal of Metal Tariff's Europea Commission President Ursula Vonderlayon said
Speaker 3: that if imposed on the EU, they would quote trigger
Speaker 3: firm and proportionate countermeasures.
Speaker 1: The EU response comes after Trump insisted that the proposed
Speaker 1: tariffs on steel and aluminium imports would help boost domestic
Speaker 1: production and bring more jobs to the United States.
Speaker 5: Protecting are still at aluminum industries is a must. And
Speaker 5: today I am simplifying our tariffs and CEO and aluminum
Speaker 5: so that everyone can understand exactly what it means. It's
Speaker 5: twenty five percent without exceptions or exemptions, and that's all countries,
Speaker 5: no matter where it comes from, all countries. If made
Speaker 5: in the United States, however, there is no tariff for zero.
Speaker 1: Trump's move comes on top of new ten percent tariffs
Speaker 1: on goods from China and twenty five percent levies on
Speaker 1: Canada and Mexico that are currently paused for one month.
Speaker 1: The latest measures are meant to crack down on what
Speaker 1: White House officials said were efforts by countries like Russia
Speaker 1: and China to circumvent existing duties.
Speaker 3: Despite Trump's insistence that there would be zero exemptions, the
Speaker 3: US president says he will give consideration to a carve
Speaker 3: up for Australia. Those comments were also echoed by the
Speaker 3: country's Prime minister after a call between the two leaders.
Speaker 6: I presented Australia's case for an exemption, and we agreed
Speaker 6: on wording to say publicly, which is that the US
Speaker 6: President agreed that an exemption was under consideration in the
Speaker 6: interests of both of our countries.
Speaker 3: Anthony Albanezi there, who has been under intense political pressure
Speaker 3: to secure tariff exemptions for the country's steel and aluminium
Speaker 3: exports to the US. Both leaders cited the US trade
Speaker 3: surplus with Australia was a key reason for any carve out.
Speaker 1: The growing prospect of a trade war comes as the
Speaker 1: UK's new ambassador to the United States, Peter Mandelson, says
Speaker 1: it's important for allies to respect Trump's electoral mandate. The
Speaker 1: comments come after Trump suggested last week the UK may
Speaker 1: avoid tariffs, saying the relationship can be worked out. Here's
Speaker 1: what Lord Mandelson told the BBC on his first day
Speaker 1: in the role.
Speaker 7: We've got to take all these issues as they can.
Speaker 7: Realize that the president has a very strong and clear
Speaker 7: mandate for change in the United States. Now that doesn't
Speaker 7: mean to say that we're going to agree in Britain
Speaker 7: with every single detail of what he does, but we
Speaker 7: have to respect and understand what drives him, what is
Speaker 7: mandate is to do and how his allies need to
Speaker 7: adjust sometimes.
Speaker 1: Peter Mandilson also told the BBC that has passed criticisms
Speaker 1: of Trump were quote ill judged and wrong. In twenty nineteen,
Speaker 1: the labor politician reportedly called the US leader a danger
Speaker 1: to the world.
Speaker 4: In one interview to Turnings Now.
Speaker 3: BP has pledged to deliver major changes to its strategy
Speaker 3: as it reported results that will likely add to pressure
Speaker 3: on the oil major. Adjusted net income for the fourth
Speaker 3: quarter was one point one seven billion dollars, which is
Speaker 3: down from around three billion last year and a miss
Speaker 3: of the average analist estimate of one point three billion dollars.
Speaker 2: The Bloomerg Salmonstead says investors.
Speaker 3: Will need to wait for details of what the CEO
Speaker 3: has dubbed a reset.
Speaker 8: If you are hoping that today's BP results would have
Speaker 8: something to do with exactly what they're going to do
Speaker 8: with their strategy, what kind of changes they're going to make,
Speaker 8: I'm afraid you might be a touch disappointed because they
Speaker 8: are saving all of that until the twenty sixth of February.
Speaker 8: There is a line in the report saying that we
Speaker 8: are going to have a kind of fundamental reset of
Speaker 8: our strategy. That is broadly what everyone kind of already expects,
Speaker 8: and it's a question of whether that fundamental reset is
Speaker 8: going to meet what say Elliott and other shareholders want some.
Speaker 3: Understood there talking to us after Bloomberg learned that activist
Speaker 3: investor Elliott had built a significant holding in BP.
Speaker 1: Open Ai CEO Sam Altman has rejected a ninety seven
Speaker 1: point four billion dollar bid by an Elon Musk led
Speaker 1: group in a post Unmosqus x platform Atmann said no,
Speaker 1: thank you, instead offering to buy the social media company
Speaker 1: for a tenth of that price. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Man
Speaker 1: Deep Saying says Musk's bid was unexpected.
Speaker 9: Everyone is fixated on, you know, lowering the costs, so
Speaker 9: our view is there will be more consolidation. But I
Speaker 9: didn't anticipate this form of consolidation where you end up
Speaker 9: seeing a hostile bid, you know where. Clearly, I think,
Speaker 9: given Microsoft's stake in open Ai, there's no way you
Speaker 9: could see a.
Speaker 1: Deal like this, Bloomberg Intelligence is man Deep saying, reacting
Speaker 1: to that news, which was first reported by the Wall
Speaker 1: Street Journal. Musk and Altman have been locked in a
Speaker 1: long standing feud over the direction of open Ai. The
Speaker 1: two man works together as founders, but animosity grew as
Speaker 1: the chat GBT creator moved towards becoming a for profit business.
Speaker 2: Those are you top stories this morning?
Speaker 3: On the markets, we have the stock six hundred flat
Speaker 3: to the upside smp E, many futures are down a
Speaker 3: quarter of eight percent, and head of Pal's testimony later,
Speaker 3: the US tenure treasure yield is hire a basis point
Speaker 3: at four point five percent.
Speaker 1: Well, in a moment, we'll bring you more on how
Speaker 1: the EU was planning to respond to those latest steel
Speaker 1: and aluminium tarifs in the United States.
Speaker 4: But Lizzia just wants to mention the.
Speaker 1: Story that I've been reading this morning on the Bloomberg terminal,
Speaker 1: and this is the new list of Michelin Stars restaurants
Speaker 1: in the UK.
Speaker 2: And Ireland in Hungary for this conversation.
Speaker 1: I mean, there's some good names on there, so we've
Speaker 1: got more haul in Lancashire that's got its third star.
Speaker 1: And our food editor Cake Crater has been writing about
Speaker 1: some of the dishes you might have there. For example,
Speaker 1: Local Dorset seek a Deer on the menu there sounds
Speaker 1: very tempting good and Ramsey's restaurant kept its three stars.
Speaker 1: He's just opened a new restaurant here in the city
Speaker 1: as well.
Speaker 4: Twelve seats, Yeah.
Speaker 2: What are you going to do with twelve seats?
Speaker 4: You're suggesting you have to fill them all?
Speaker 2: Yeah, you need more than twelve seats.
Speaker 1: Nah, exclusivity, So we are paying for quiet luxury.
Speaker 4: Look, it's a great list to read some of them.
Speaker 1: Nice to see the likes of oman Borough Market getting
Speaker 1: its first star as well, twenty two restaurants getting a
Speaker 1: new star across Britain and Ireland as well. A couple
Speaker 1: of great Irish names and there as well, Lignum and
Speaker 1: Galway on the Marrison Room and Carton House in Kildare
Speaker 1: get their first stars. A plenty to inspire you in
Speaker 1: that piece. You can read more on Bloomberg dot com
Speaker 1: and on the terminal.
Speaker 3: Well, let's get back to the latest on the tariff
Speaker 3: news and the European Union says that it will impose
Speaker 3: countermeasures against the latest US tariffs on steel and aluminium.
Speaker 3: We have our Brussels bureau chief Kevin Whitelaw with US
Speaker 3: now and from Berlin, our correspondent Oliver Crook and our
Speaker 3: markets reporter Valerie Title with US in studio, so all
Speaker 3: bases covered here, Kevin, I want to start with you.
Speaker 3: This is in response to the US tariffs on steel
Speaker 3: and aluminium. What exactly has the EU said?
Speaker 10: You know, the EU has said in the sort of
Speaker 10: tersiest way possible that this is it views this as
Speaker 10: unlawful and will impose countermeasures if if it stands. They're
Speaker 10: trying to avoid specifics and they are trying to leave
Speaker 10: room for negotiation. These tariffs don't take effect until March twelfth,
Speaker 10: which does give the EU, but every other country in
Speaker 10: the world at least some thing a medical time to
Speaker 10: have conversations with the Trump administration to see if there
Speaker 10: is something they're looking for that that could either lower
Speaker 10: or of the tariff threat.
Speaker 1: We know that the EU has been preparing for the
Speaker 1: potential of tariffs being imposed. What do we know about
Speaker 1: what has been prepared for? What are the likely next
Speaker 1: steps we could see the EU taking.
Speaker 10: Well, yeah, the you had been prepared to you know,
Speaker 10: detailed list of you know, potential retaliations, but it was
Speaker 10: also based off everything from across the board tariffs on
Speaker 10: all goods, which is one thing that Trump had floated
Speaker 10: at one point to obviously more specific issues. When it
Speaker 10: comes to the metals a luminum steel, this revives a
Speaker 10: fight from the first administration, and so when when when
Speaker 10: the Trump administration did tariffs on these medals the first
Speaker 10: time round, there were a set of retaliation, retaliatory measures
Speaker 10: that you took on things like you know, Harley Davidson motorcycles,
Speaker 10: Levi Jean's Kentucky Bourbon that could all come back, or
Speaker 10: it could be slightly different, or it could be a
Speaker 10: different set of things. So the EU has a couple
Speaker 10: of different options. But the truths that have been called
Speaker 10: under the Biden administration over this trade fight was due
Speaker 10: to expire at the end of March, so the you know,
Speaker 10: this fight was going to come back one way or another.
Speaker 10: Probably I think Trump has just made it come back faster.
Speaker 3: Ollie all of Schultz has also been speaking about this
Speaker 3: this morning. What's he been saying.
Speaker 11: I mean, listen, what we heard from Schultz is basically
Speaker 11: the usual stuff that we've been hearing from many of
Speaker 11: the European leaders, basically saying how harmful this is going
Speaker 11: to be, not just to the Europeans but also to
Speaker 11: the Americans. How basically that you will have to respond
Speaker 11: in kind but their option, that's not their preferred option
Speaker 11: to have a trade war, and that this is that
Speaker 11: they hope that they can fix the sort of misguided
Speaker 11: path of terists and that can still be sort of avoided.
Speaker 11: I think that the main question for everybody from the Europeans,
Speaker 11: you know, in Brussels or Berlin, it's basically what does
Speaker 11: Trump want?
Speaker 7: Right?
Speaker 11: What is the negotiation? Is this just going to be
Speaker 11: a pure negotiation. Is it just about closing the sort
Speaker 11: of trade gap. Is it going to be bigger than that?
Speaker 11: And I think that's going to be the main question.
Speaker 11: Is it going to be potentially about regulation, anti trust?
Speaker 11: Could it be about NATO spending, Could it be I mean,
Speaker 11: maybe Greenland. These are all going to be sort of
Speaker 11: the questions and trying to get an understanding of what
Speaker 11: this administration is thinking. The good news for the Europeans
Speaker 11: is that they're going to have their first basically high
Speaker 11: level contact with the Trump administration later this week in Munich, where.
Speaker 4: You have JD.
Speaker 11: Vance, you have Marco Rubio, you have Keith Kellogg, the
Speaker 11: chief Envoy for Ukraine and Russia that will be coming
Speaker 11: to Munich and to Germany and we'll be meeting with
Speaker 11: some of these leaders for the very first time.
Speaker 1: Oliver, how exposed is Germany's economy, in particular within the
Speaker 1: European Union to these tariffs on stealing aluminium?
Speaker 11: Yeah, so listen, whenever we talk about trade with the
Speaker 11: United States and the issues that it provokes for Europe,
Speaker 11: any issue it provokes for Europe is mainly an issue
Speaker 11: for Germany. So basically, the EU had a trade surplus
Speaker 11: with the United States of about two hundred and thirty
Speaker 11: billion dollars last year. If you look at just the
Speaker 11: surplus between Germany and the United States, it was more
Speaker 11: than seventy billion euros and that was a record last year. Right,
Speaker 11: And the total trade between Germany and the US is
Speaker 11: about a quarter trillion euros. So this is basically a
Speaker 11: tariff that really hits the Germans the hardest. But you know,
Speaker 11: this stuff flows both ways. I mean, I'll give you
Speaker 11: just one example. Mercedes Benz for example, Right, they have
Speaker 11: factories in Europe. Obviously they have factories in the United States,
Speaker 11: but many of the SUVs they sell in Europe which
Speaker 11: are being produced and assembled over in the United States.
Speaker 11: So of course a lot of the exports are going
Speaker 11: from Europe to the United States, but they go both ways.
Speaker 11: When you talk specifically about steel. You know, Germany's the
Speaker 11: seventh biggest exporter of steel into the United States, is
Speaker 11: about three billion dollars last year, so listen, in the
Speaker 11: scheme of things, it's not the sort of biggest category.
Speaker 11: But again it's another headwind for a German economy not
Speaker 11: in need of headwinds.
Speaker 2: So, Valerie, where are we seeing this showing up in
Speaker 2: the market if.
Speaker 12: Anywere look, the reaction is fairly muted here, Lizzie. There
Speaker 12: is some trade the downside in basic resources here in Europe,
Speaker 12: those exposed to the perhaps the metal trade, the aluminum
Speaker 12: and steal tariffs that tit for tat, But we're not
Speaker 12: really seeing a risk off move in the equity market.
Speaker 12: The eurostox six hundred is still whole holding up pretty well.
Speaker 12: S ANDP Future didn't really react, and then finally in
Speaker 12: the FX market, the reaction there hasn't been anything eye catching.
Speaker 12: Euro is still unchanged and there wasn't really.
Speaker 4: A jump in gold.
Speaker 12: So it seems like the market is reading through this
Speaker 12: for now, perhaps thinking that the ball is now in
Speaker 12: Trump's court. We know that he might announce reciprocal tariffs
Speaker 12: either today or tomorrow. Perhaps the market is just waiting
Speaker 12: for that announcement before drawing any conclusions from the EU's
Speaker 12: move today.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it is very interesting to see that that sort
Speaker 1: of muted market reaction again. And this is sort of
Speaker 1: in line with what we've had since we had these
Speaker 1: tires first mooted by Trump. On Sunday evening as well.
Speaker 1: The EUS Trade Commissioner Mao Chefcovic has been speaking in
Speaker 1: the European Parliament in Strasbourg this morning.
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to what he had to say.
Speaker 13: We will always protect our interest from unjustified measures in.
Speaker 4: Line with our values.
Speaker 13: And this time has come and we are currently assessing
Speaker 13: the scope of the measures and overnight overnight and we'll
Speaker 13: be responding in firm and a proportionate way by countermeasures.
Speaker 13: We will act to safeguard our economic interests. We will
Speaker 13: protect our workers, businesses and consumers.
Speaker 1: That's Marschefsovitz. They're the executive Vice President of the European Union.
Speaker 1: Let's go back to our Russels we or Chief Kevin Whitelaw,
Speaker 1: Kevin the Hope or at least some countries in response
Speaker 1: to these tariffs, would they be able to carve out
Speaker 1: an exception or an exemption from them. We know that
Speaker 1: the Australian Prime Minister has already had a conversation with
Speaker 1: Donald Trump about it. What hopes will there be on
Speaker 1: the EU side that there is room to negotiate here
Speaker 1: without things getting Dare I say it out of hand?
Speaker 10: Well, obviously, I think you know, the EU has taken
Speaker 10: a certain amount of solace and in the notion that
Speaker 10: some of Trump's early tariff measures did result in negotiated
Speaker 10: truces or delays, and so I do think that they
Speaker 10: are optimistic, and I think that it does actually explain
Speaker 10: the sort of measured nature of the statement. Basically, they
Speaker 10: didn't threaten specifics, they didn't take an old really harsh tone,
Speaker 10: but they did make clear that like they're going to
Speaker 10: have to do something. So that's something is obviously going
Speaker 10: to depend a lot on how these conversations are going forward.
Speaker 10: But I think everyone who's dealing with this administration has
Speaker 10: to understand that the risk of continually getting into negotiations
Speaker 10: is that you just end up with a series of
Speaker 10: concessants that simply delays something without actually providing countries about
Speaker 10: with any certainty that they've actually escaped, you know, the
Speaker 10: entire cycle of this, and we're going to watch that.
Speaker 10: With Canada Mexico they only got a thirty day truce
Speaker 10: and in that first tariff threat from from from the
Speaker 10: from the Trump administration. So you know, if if if
Speaker 10: he just comes back and wants more, that's going to
Speaker 10: you know, the EU and others may have to take
Speaker 10: a different lesson from that.
Speaker 3: Welly, can we just talk about how this is going
Speaker 3: to play into the domestic politics in Germany? What might
Speaker 3: it do to change the election campaign in Germany.
Speaker 11: Or just impact on the election campaign in Germany. From
Speaker 11: the Trump camp has probably been Elon Musk and his
Speaker 11: sort of getting involved in backing the AfD and having
Speaker 11: these of strange outbursts and sort of participating very kind
Speaker 11: of actively as an advocate for the alternative for Deutsche Line,
Speaker 11: the far right group that wants to leave the Eurozone,
Speaker 11: that wants as much more protectionists and much more sort
Speaker 11: of nationalist, and all of it sort of and all
Speaker 11: of its sort of messaging in terms of what it
Speaker 11: will actually mean for the economy. Again, this is going
Speaker 11: to be absolutely huge sort of mood music if this
Speaker 11: stuff moves forwards. I mean, again, it's a big if,
Speaker 11: and there's no way around the fact that again, what
Speaker 11: Germany is staring down is a sort of couple of
Speaker 11: years of a coalition that has been very sort of clumsy,
Speaker 11: didn't get along. Obviously, it resulted in the government collapsing.
Speaker 11: We are now looking at potentially a third year of
Speaker 11: contraction in Germany that has literally never happened, three years
Speaker 11: of consecutive contraption since the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Speaker 11: The only possible silver lining, I think politically for Germany
Speaker 11: is that actually things get so bad that these political
Speaker 11: parties need to make really difficult compromises and really do
Speaker 11: something in order to turn the economy around, to stimulate
Speaker 11: the economy, and really think much more radically about what
Speaker 11: they need to do to turn the economy around. Maybe
Speaker 11: for the CDU and the Conservatives that means look at
Speaker 11: the debt break and thinking about other and more creative
Speaker 11: ways to simulate the economy. Potentially for the SPD it
Speaker 11: means cutting back some of the social welfare things. These
Speaker 11: have all been sort of chronic sticking points that have
Speaker 11: basically made it impossible for things to move forward politically,
Speaker 11: and potentially you know, Trump changes that potentially, though also
Speaker 11: it doesn't, and it just sort of slowly the economy
Speaker 11: sort of limps on and things get worse and worse
Speaker 11: and worse.
Speaker 1: Kevin, the EU is of course that it's based a
Speaker 1: trade block, so the response comes from Brussels. But could
Speaker 1: we see a situation where certain European countries will be
Speaker 1: trying to negotiate side deals or exemptions for products that
Speaker 1: would particularly affect them.
Speaker 4: Is there is there a European unity question here?
Speaker 10: I mean there definitely is, maybe less so on the
Speaker 10: metals tariffs than on sort of some of the bigger
Speaker 10: across the board conversations that are going down. But yes,
Speaker 10: there's a definite concern that that countries will have an
Speaker 10: incentive to to try to cut their own deals. And
Speaker 10: there is also some worry that Trump actually want that
Speaker 10: and may want to look to fracture the market, you know,
Speaker 10: the single market in European unity. So he may well
Speaker 10: start offering that. So you know, obviously that could happen
Speaker 10: with his closest allies, such as Hungary's Victor orbon Or,
Speaker 10: it could happen with individual economies and leaders who are
Speaker 10: who are worried about the impact, you know, particularly when
Speaker 10: you look at how many of Europe's economies are indeed
Speaker 10: struggling right now.
Speaker 3: So well, the back and forth has begun between the
Speaker 3: US and the EU. Well, the key points that markets
Speaker 3: are watching for now as this plays.
Speaker 12: Out, Well, look, Lizzie, if we go from just the
Speaker 12: one sided US announcing tariffs to a tit for tat
Speaker 12: trade war, that will really turn this trade from an
Speaker 12: FX trade to an equity market trade. Right We're not
Speaker 12: necessarily worried about dollar strength or euro weakness. If we
Speaker 12: do get combative tariffs from either side of the Atlantic,
Speaker 12: the risk really is going to show up in equity
Speaker 12: market sentiment souring and perhaps a further bid into gold.
Speaker 1: Okay, Faleriy ty Tyler, market supporter, thank you very much.
Speaker 1: Just a final question to Oliver Crook in Berlin. Of
Speaker 1: course we're talking about the impact on the election campaign
Speaker 1: here as well. Frederick Martz from the CDU is currently
Speaker 1: the leading candidate in the polls to be the next chancellor.
Speaker 1: There should we expect any divergence on this issue between
Speaker 1: Olof Schultz and Frederick Martz.
Speaker 11: I mean, listen, I think that the only sort of
Speaker 11: positive thing potentially if the Olaf Schultz gets replaced is
Speaker 11: just the fact that we know that there's a great
Speaker 11: disdain on the Trump side of things for Schultz. You know,
Speaker 11: in Germany we've had obviously, again most of that has
Speaker 11: been through Elon Musk through Twitter basically calling you know,
Speaker 11: Elon calling Olof Schultze a fool and being very very
Speaker 11: critical of the German government. I mean, listen, I don't
Speaker 11: know that Frederick Mertz is the sort of most dynamic, charismatic,
Speaker 11: sort of deal cutting kind of person that you know
Speaker 11: that Trump would like to work with. I think he
Speaker 11: tries to style himself as someone who could be who's
Speaker 11: closer politically as a conservative. But again, what I think
Speaker 11: what was interesting and he was stressing over the weekend
Speaker 11: in the debate of Frederick Mertz, that is, is despite
Speaker 11: the fact that again there was all this controversy about
Speaker 11: him voting with the AfD on this question of immigration,
Speaker 11: and the AfD is obviously a very anti immigration party,
Speaker 11: very anti europe party, Frederick Mertz is still very pro European.
Speaker 11: He's saying that basically, the only way that we're going
Speaker 11: to be able to stand up to the United States
Speaker 11: is if we work together as a block, and to
Speaker 11: sort of Kevin's point what we were talking about, there
Speaker 11: is of course always the fear that this can draw
Speaker 11: fragmentation within the European Union because in moments of economic
Speaker 11: and sort of political instability, many people tend to go
Speaker 11: towards a nationalist sort of view. But I think there
Speaker 11: is a consciousness, certainly from the CDU, that the only
Speaker 11: way that Europe, that Jermy is going to make it
Speaker 11: out of this is in sort of solidarity with Europe.
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