WEBVTT - Vanguard Eyes Top ETF Spot over BlackRock

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg business Week Inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>gloom O Business Finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>All Right, I like it, I like it, I like it.

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<v Speaker 2>The reign of Blackrock is coming to an end, at

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<v Speaker 2>least in the seven point eight trillion dollar market for

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<v Speaker 2>US exchange traded funds also known as et aps, which

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<v Speaker 2>Blackrock has just dominated for decades. I know somebody who

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<v Speaker 2>knows quite a bit about ETFs. That's none other than

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg News senior markets reporter and BTV anchor Katie Graefeld.

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<v Speaker 2>She writes all about Vanguard's rise for Bloomberg Business Week.

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<v Speaker 2>It hits newsstands later this week, but you can read

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<v Speaker 2>her story now in the Playomberg Terminal in at Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>dot com slash BusinessWeek. Also here in our Bloomberg Interactive

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<v Speaker 2>Broker's Studio, we got the editor of Bloomberg Business Week,

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<v Speaker 2>Joel Weber. Joel this, I mean, come on, was this

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<v Speaker 2>was bound to happen at some point?

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<v Speaker 3>Yet Katie and I talk a lot about ETFs. I

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<v Speaker 3>think from the get go, we'll just say, Larry think,

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<v Speaker 3>if you're listening, you can reach Tim Stenovik at tst

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<v Speaker 3>n O v ac one at Bloomberg dot That's right,

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<v Speaker 3>this is not available yet.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm available.

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<v Speaker 3>But if you look at the trend line of how

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<v Speaker 3>Vanguard has slowly, slowly, slowly risen and how black Rock

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<v Speaker 3>has slowly slowly fallen, there will be an infection moment

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<v Speaker 3>not too far away, right, Katie.

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<v Speaker 4>We don't know when, we don't know what. It will

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<v Speaker 4>probably happen, probably.

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<v Speaker 5>In the next eighteen to twenty four months. There are

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<v Speaker 5>some nuances there which I'm sure we'll get into. But

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<v Speaker 5>I mean, like Joel said, this is something that the

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<v Speaker 5>industry has been watching and waiting for for probably a decade.

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<v Speaker 6>At this point. Take a look at the chart of.

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<v Speaker 4>Market popcorn, A lot of popcorn, of popcorn.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, we've been waiting for this one. But Vanguard has

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<v Speaker 5>been increasing its share of the US ETF market for

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<v Speaker 5>twenty one straight years. Just amazing growth coming out of

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<v Speaker 5>Valley Forge, Pennsylvania and Blackrock sleepy there, sleepy yeah, a

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<v Speaker 5>lot of trees. But Blackrock, I mean, Blackrock is still enormous.

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<v Speaker 5>Let's just put that out there, two point five trillion

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<v Speaker 5>dollars in US ETF assets. But their share has been

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<v Speaker 5>dropping and dropping. Right now, it's at the lowest in

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<v Speaker 5>at least twenty years, thirty two point five percent, Vanguard

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<v Speaker 5>at twenty nine point five percent. That is the slimmest

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<v Speaker 5>margin between these two.

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<v Speaker 1>What's up with that?

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<v Speaker 6>What's up with that?

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<v Speaker 5>So there's a few things going on right now. Vanguard

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<v Speaker 5>enjoys a very very loyal investor base. You think about

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<v Speaker 5>who they appeal to, it's financial advisors, it's retail investors,

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<v Speaker 5>not yolo retail investors.

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<v Speaker 6>But actual mom and pop at.

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<v Speaker 5>Bogo head, yes, exactly, and those are very sticky assets,

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<v Speaker 5>and that type of investor base it tends to shovel

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<v Speaker 5>in money to these funds in almost every market cycle.

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<v Speaker 3>Actually, when things get worse, they pile in exactly, Oh,

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<v Speaker 3>great buying opportunity, we're in.

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<v Speaker 5>Exactly, So that's what they're going, that's what they're enjoying.

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<v Speaker 5>They have a very loyal, sticky asset base. Whereas you

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<v Speaker 5>think about these black rock funds, they're enormous, they're very liquid,

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<v Speaker 5>and they're trading tools, I mean wall Street uses these

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<v Speaker 5>and Wall Street those flows are more volatile.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I want to ask you about that, kittie. I too,

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<v Speaker 4>hail from not far from Valley Forge, from Sleepy myself,

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<v Speaker 4>so I can relate it. Always always been fascinated with

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<v Speaker 4>Vanguard because the other reason is notoriously a cheapskate. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>I do not want to spend more on something right, right,

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<v Speaker 4>you can tell. But so I look at, okay, the

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<v Speaker 4>flagshipt ETFs of both companies, you know, and Vanguard, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>zero point three percent on the S and P five hundred.

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<v Speaker 4>It's expense ratio point zero three right, zero, yeah, point

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<v Speaker 4>zero three percent.

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<v Speaker 6>Three basis points, three.

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<v Speaker 4>Basis points for those following at home that speak on

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<v Speaker 4>Wall Street language. So to me, it's amazing this hasn't

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<v Speaker 4>Why has it taken so long?

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<v Speaker 7>Like?

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<v Speaker 4>What makes the Blackrock funds competitive at a higher management

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<v Speaker 4>fee than Vanguard?

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<v Speaker 5>Well, the thing is, I will say that Blackrock has

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<v Speaker 5>been forced to sort of follow Vanguard's lead here. They've

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<v Speaker 5>had to cut fees as well introduce their own very

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<v Speaker 5>low fee products. You take a look at their S

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<v Speaker 5>and P five hundred funds. The I shares one ticker

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<v Speaker 5>IVV that also charges three basis points to match Vanguard's fee.

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<v Speaker 6>But in terms of why, I mean.

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<v Speaker 5>Blackrock has enjoyed this position at the top of the

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<v Speaker 5>league table for so long, since two thousand and six.

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<v Speaker 6>They were an early mover here.

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<v Speaker 5>And that's really powerful in the ETF market. That first

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<v Speaker 5>market advantage. You see it both on the issuer side

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<v Speaker 5>and also when new product sets are introduced, when a

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<v Speaker 5>new category is introduced, so that is in BlackRock's favor. Also,

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<v Speaker 5>you think about some of their funds, I mean TLT,

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<v Speaker 5>that is their long dated Treasury ETF.

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<v Speaker 2>And you love TL. You love talking about TL.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm talking about TLT so much because it has been insane,

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<v Speaker 5>the volume and the fund this year has been incredible.

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<v Speaker 5>People are shoveling so much money into this ETF this

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<v Speaker 5>year even though I is TLT. Kind of it kind

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<v Speaker 5>of is like these these funds that are these funds

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<v Speaker 5>that Blackrock have a lot of them, are just capital

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<v Speaker 5>market instruments, and that's really powerful. That's why I SPY,

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<v Speaker 5>which charges nine basis points UH, which is the S

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<v Speaker 5>and P five hundred tracking fund UH introduced by State Street.

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<v Speaker 5>It's the oldest, it's the biggest, it's relatively expensive, but

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<v Speaker 5>it's just been around for so long that's what people use.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, still bigger than Vanguard's fund at more than three

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<v Speaker 4>times the granted both are pretty cheap in the.

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<v Speaker 5>Grand scheme of life, but I mean this is a

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<v Speaker 5>market that's measured in basis points, so it's pretty expensive.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, one thing that Blackrock has that Vanguard does

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<v Speaker 3>not have. Tell me is a filing for a bitcoin ETF.

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<v Speaker 6>I was wondering when we would get that.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, we're here now. Everyone's favorite thing to talk about

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<v Speaker 3>in the people's favorite thing to talk about it in

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<v Speaker 3>this room. So if you haven't been following closely, there

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<v Speaker 3>is no spot bitcoin ETF. But there's something like what

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<v Speaker 3>thirteen filings something like that something I lost track. Vanguard

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<v Speaker 3>is not one of them. So what's gonna happen if

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<v Speaker 3>Blackrock has a moment here where they get to have

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<v Speaker 3>a bitcoin ETF and Vanguard doesn't have one?

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<v Speaker 5>This is so fun. I'm so glad we're talking about

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<v Speaker 5>this because it sort of gets into the spiritual differences

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<v Speaker 5>between Blackrock and Vanguard. Blackrock has over four hundred ETFs.

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<v Speaker 5>That is a lot of utfs, virtually every single asset,

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<v Speaker 5>more than anybody else pretty much. Take a look at Vanguard.

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<v Speaker 5>Even though there's only two hundred three hundred billion dollars

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<v Speaker 5>that separates them in AUM, Vanguard only has eighty three funds.

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<v Speaker 5>Vanguard is not They don't even have a commodities ETF.

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<v Speaker 5>So they're very plain vanilla.

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<v Speaker 1>By plain vanilla.

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<v Speaker 3>It's like hold the vanilla bean, just like straight vanilla.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, exactly, exactly.

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<v Speaker 5>And I asked Vanguard, h will you ever file for

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<v Speaker 5>a spot bitcoin ETF? And usually it's hard to get

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<v Speaker 5>Vanguard to say anything too fired up. They said absolutely,

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<v Speaker 5>they have no intent to do this. The case for

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<v Speaker 5>cryptocurrency is very weak, ki volatility, et cetera. Whereas Blackrock

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<v Speaker 5>they are leading the charge here. A lot of people

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<v Speaker 5>watching January to see if that spot bitcoin ETF gets approved,

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<v Speaker 5>and if it does, that can give them a leg up.

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<v Speaker 5>Especially if Blackrock puts their their spot pitcoin ETF into

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<v Speaker 5>some of their model portfolios. That could be a game

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<v Speaker 5>changer here and buy them a little bit of time.

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<v Speaker 4>Except when Joel used to send me down to Vanguard

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<v Speaker 4>to interview Jack Bogel, so probably ten years ago at

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<v Speaker 4>this point, Yeah, talk about he was happy to shake

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<v Speaker 4>things up. He would spit fire.

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<v Speaker 3>He'd have a few things to say about the point

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<v Speaker 3>you think, that's no intent with like the g version

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<v Speaker 3>of what you'd get from Jack exactly.

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<v Speaker 4>But you know, uh, Bogel never wanted to have an

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<v Speaker 4>ETF in the first place. You know, you'd ask, you'd

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<v Speaker 4>ask him about ETFs, and the the argument was, well,

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<v Speaker 4>you can trade it all day, and he'd be like,

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<v Speaker 4>why the heck would you want to do that? So exactly,

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<v Speaker 4>So I wonder is it sort of the ghost of

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<v Speaker 4>Bogel that's influencing Vanguard, or is it more to do

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<v Speaker 4>with just the structure. You know, black Rock is a

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<v Speaker 4>for profit company. It has its own stock, it has

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<v Speaker 4>its own shareholders to answer to. Vanguard is a completely

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<v Speaker 4>different business model. So when you talk to us about

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<v Speaker 4>that and and does that play a role in their

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<v Speaker 4>decisions on things like this?

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<v Speaker 6>I think it is partly the Bogel effect.

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<v Speaker 5>Here to name.

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<v Speaker 8>Check a book by book called Yeah, I don't know

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<v Speaker 8>if you know him, we can host a podcast together.

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<v Speaker 2>He's he's not quoted in this story though erics.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean that would be too do that, But yeah,

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<v Speaker 5>I mean you think about again Bogel's choice words to

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<v Speaker 5>your point. Vanguard doesn't say anything too. It's hard to

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<v Speaker 5>rile them up. Bogel definitely was more outspoken, but yeah,

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<v Speaker 5>he didn't have a lot of.

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<v Speaker 6>Love for commodities.

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<v Speaker 5>It makes sense that Vanguard doesn't have a lot of

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<v Speaker 5>love for crypto. Again, to go back to the quote

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<v Speaker 5>that they gave me, they say that most crypto assets

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<v Speaker 5>they lack intrinsic economic value. They generate no cash flows.

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<v Speaker 5>That is a biggie for Vanguard. It's the same thing

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<v Speaker 5>with commodities not generating any cash flows. Just it's totally

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<v Speaker 5>out of their profile that they would even venture into crypto.

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<v Speaker 3>It seems like Blackrock might be worried about this, like

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<v Speaker 3>you've seen this lead continue to sort of slip away.

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<v Speaker 3>It goes back to obviously Blackrock acquired Eye Shares and

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<v Speaker 3>that was like this amazing acquisition. Do you get a

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<v Speaker 3>sense that BlackRock's nervous about this, about the moment that

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<v Speaker 3>they become sort of like the number two in the

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<v Speaker 3>ETF game.

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<v Speaker 5>I will say that Blackrock is pretty competitive in spirit,

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<v Speaker 5>and I think it's also to point out here even

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<v Speaker 5>though their share is slipping, it's a case of the

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<v Speaker 5>pie is just getting bigger.

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<v Speaker 3>The Pie is getting much bigger, right, much bigger. He's

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<v Speaker 3>the podcast named Trillions Trillion grows a lot.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, we're up to seven point eight trillion dollars in

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<v Speaker 5>US ETF assets, about ten trillion dollars globally. You take

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<v Speaker 5>a look at Blackrocks US ETF assets, they're at two

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<v Speaker 5>point five trillion dollars. That's an all time high. So

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<v Speaker 5>it's not like blackrock is shrinking here.

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<v Speaker 6>It's just that you have this just very.

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<v Speaker 5>Formidable challenger in Vanguard, and also you have all of

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<v Speaker 5>the others. I mean, you take a look at the

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<v Speaker 5>percent of flows that are going to people outside of Blackrock,

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<v Speaker 5>outside of Vanguard, and it's at a record high.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's not just that people want the boring stuff that,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, boring low fee stuff that Vanguard has. So

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<v Speaker 2>Joel asked about the competitiveness of blackrock and if they're

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<v Speaker 2>watching this closely, what about Vanguard does do they care

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<v Speaker 2>if they're number one?

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<v Speaker 5>No that I mean again, I always, as someone who's

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<v Speaker 5>been covering this for a few years, I just love

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<v Speaker 5>the spiritual differences between blackrock and Vanguard. Where blackrock is

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<v Speaker 5>competitive and you know, wants to be number one, Vanguard

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<v Speaker 5>does not care.

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<v Speaker 6>The exact quote.

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<v Speaker 5>That I got from them is Vanguard isn't focused on

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<v Speaker 5>who's at top of the ETF league tables, and I

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<v Speaker 5>believe them. So it's pretty interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>Like league what.

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<v Speaker 6>You watch that it has come to us.

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<v Speaker 3>I also the spiritual difference there is, like you know,

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<v Speaker 3>the Financial Advisor, I think is a set that really

0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:46.400
<v Speaker 3>gravitates to Vanguard, whereas like more of like I probably

0:11:46.440 --> 0:11:49.680
<v Speaker 3>like the trader is who I think you said earlier,

0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:51.040
<v Speaker 3>yeah right, yeah, yeah.

0:11:50.840 --> 0:11:53.959
<v Speaker 5>And I mean that's something that I make sure to

0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:56.360
<v Speaker 5>put in every story cause it's very real. I mean,

0:11:56.640 --> 0:12:00.120
<v Speaker 5>even though their share is going down, their importance on

0:12:00.200 --> 0:12:02.360
<v Speaker 5>Wall Street Traders is only going up. A lot of

0:12:02.360 --> 0:12:04.880
<v Speaker 5>people are using these as liquidity sleeves, et cetera, a

0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:08.400
<v Speaker 5>way to get quick exposure these blackrock products because a

0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:09.559
<v Speaker 5>lot of them just trade like water.

0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:13.320
<v Speaker 4>Well okay, no, no, well I was gonna ask Katie.

0:12:13.360 --> 0:12:16.400
<v Speaker 4>You know there's also I mean, typically traditionally when you

0:12:16.400 --> 0:12:19.600
<v Speaker 4>hear ETF, you think of a passive index tracking product

0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:23.160
<v Speaker 4>until the names like Kathy would come up and others

0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:27.400
<v Speaker 4>who are actually running actively managed ETFs.

0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:28.240
<v Speaker 7>Which has been a theme this year.

0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:31.000
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, active management has had that has been one of

0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:32.360
<v Speaker 3>the big takeaways of the year.

0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:34.400
<v Speaker 4>Yeah. Yeah, So where do we stand with that? Are

0:12:34.440 --> 0:12:38.720
<v Speaker 4>they are both of these companies losing share to providers

0:12:38.720 --> 0:12:40.040
<v Speaker 4>that have more active ETFs.

0:12:40.200 --> 0:12:41.560
<v Speaker 6>That's where the others come in.

0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:44.720
<v Speaker 5>Can you take a look at the percent of share

0:12:44.840 --> 0:12:48.240
<v Speaker 5>of flows that are going to outside of the big

0:12:48.280 --> 0:12:50.600
<v Speaker 5>two and a lot of that is going to these

0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:54.240
<v Speaker 5>actively managed ETFs. And I gotta say it's really interesting.

0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:57.720
<v Speaker 5>Even though Blackrock likes to be number one in most things,

0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:01.520
<v Speaker 5>they aren't a really huge player in the active ETF space.

0:13:01.559 --> 0:13:03.040
<v Speaker 5>You take a look at their lineup again, they have

0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:06.520
<v Speaker 5>over four hundred US ETFs, only thirty eight of them

0:13:06.600 --> 0:13:09.839
<v Speaker 5>are actively managed, and they have launched a few rick

0:13:09.920 --> 0:13:14.280
<v Speaker 5>reader for example. They're big fixed income guy, I forget

0:13:14.280 --> 0:13:17.679
<v Speaker 5>his exact title, but he's very important. He launched his

0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:20.440
<v Speaker 5>first ETF this year. So they're bringing out some of

0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:24.360
<v Speaker 5>their star players in the ETF rapper as an active strategy.

0:13:24.360 --> 0:13:28.000
<v Speaker 5>But again, these these fun these issuers, they're not known

0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:30.679
<v Speaker 5>for being active managers, even though they are so huge.

0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:32.160
<v Speaker 3>What do you think that it would be in the

0:13:32.200 --> 0:13:35.439
<v Speaker 3>inside the tim centevik rapper, Oh god, I would.

0:13:35.160 --> 0:13:35.600
<v Speaker 9>Love to know.

0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:37.560
<v Speaker 2>You have aute to think about.

0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:40.320
<v Speaker 5>I feel like you would be extremely sensible, and then

0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:42.520
<v Speaker 5>there would be like one to five percent of your

0:13:42.520 --> 0:13:44.400
<v Speaker 5>portfolio that would be absolutely bananas.

0:13:44.440 --> 0:13:46.600
<v Speaker 8>Is that that Eric Baltus calls that the hot sauce?

0:13:46.760 --> 0:13:50.760
<v Speaker 8>Yeah exactly. I just put a little bit of hot sauce. Yeah,

0:13:51.120 --> 0:13:52.240
<v Speaker 8>you know, maybe a little bit more than you.

0:13:52.600 --> 0:13:54.240
<v Speaker 2>I would love a burrito right now. Why did you

0:13:54.240 --> 0:13:54.760
<v Speaker 2>bring that up?

0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:55.800
<v Speaker 1>Sounds great?

0:13:56.640 --> 0:14:01.440
<v Speaker 3>All right, great rat anything you know, talk about around

0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:01.720
<v Speaker 3>the corner.

0:14:01.920 --> 0:14:04.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so this is a good piece, Katie. I didn't

0:14:04.640 --> 0:14:08.800
<v Speaker 2>know we could actually talk for fourteen minutes about vanes then,

0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:10.760
<v Speaker 2>but then I saw you come in the studio, and

0:14:10.760 --> 0:14:11.439
<v Speaker 2>then I knew we could.

0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:13.280
<v Speaker 4>I was going to ask Katie to name all four

0:14:13.360 --> 0:14:15.600
<v Speaker 4>hundred black rockets go at this point.

0:14:16.080 --> 0:14:17.960
<v Speaker 6>At this point, I could probably get at least one

0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:18.760
<v Speaker 6>hundred of them.

0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:21.960
<v Speaker 2>Hey, check out this story. It's in the upcoming issue

0:14:22.000 --> 0:14:26.080
<v Speaker 2>of Bloomberg and Business Week magazine. It's available on newsstands,

0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:28.920
<v Speaker 2>online and on the Bloomberg Terminal later this week, but

0:14:29.040 --> 0:14:31.160
<v Speaker 2>right now you can read the story on the Bloomberg

0:14:31.240 --> 0:14:35.600
<v Speaker 2>Terminal and of course at Bloomberg dot com. It's about

0:14:35.760 --> 0:14:39.320
<v Speaker 2>the seven point eight trillion dollar market for US traded ets,

0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:42.040
<v Speaker 2>which black Rock has dominated four decades. A big thank

0:14:42.040 --> 0:14:45.320
<v Speaker 2>you to Bloomberg News senior markets recorder and BTV anchor

0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:48.040
<v Speaker 2>Katie Greifeld, who writes all about it in the upcoming

0:14:48.040 --> 0:14:51.160
<v Speaker 2>issue of Bloomberg Business Week. Also the editor of Bloomberg BusinessWeek,

0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:53.480
<v Speaker 2>Joel Webber. Everyone here at a nice little roundtable in

0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:56.200
<v Speaker 2>our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studios. You're watching and listening to

0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:57.280
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg BusinessWeek.

0:14:58.040 --> 0:15:01.400
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business This Week podcast. Catch

0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:04.840
<v Speaker 1>us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen

0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:08.360
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg

0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:11.040
<v Speaker 1>Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

0:15:12.120 --> 0:15:14.440
<v Speaker 2>Well, maybe if you've been traveling internationally, you've seen these

0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:17.960
<v Speaker 2>ads in airports or maybe in some international cities you've

0:15:18.000 --> 0:15:20.400
<v Speaker 2>been going around in. The campaign features some of the

0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:24.400
<v Speaker 2>most well known French athletes, chefs, scientists, designers and more.

0:15:25.000 --> 0:15:28.480
<v Speaker 2>They chose France and they're telling you to do the same.

0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:31.600
<v Speaker 2>It's all part of an international marketing effort aimed at

0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:34.800
<v Speaker 2>attracting interest in and investment to France. Of course, the

0:15:34.800 --> 0:15:37.400
<v Speaker 2>seventh largest economy in the world, and one that right

0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:40.680
<v Speaker 2>now is trying to distinguish itself from its European peers.

0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:44.800
<v Speaker 2>Olivier Besch is the Minister Delegate for Foreign Trade, Economic

0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:49.000
<v Speaker 2>Attractiveness and French Nationals Abroad. It's quite the title you

0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:50.520
<v Speaker 2>have there, and that's not even your full title, I

0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:52.760
<v Speaker 2>should say. He joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive

0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:54.560
<v Speaker 2>Brokers studio. Olivier, how are you?

0:15:55.120 --> 0:15:57.400
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, fine, good afternoon everybody.

0:15:57.480 --> 0:15:59.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's good to have you with us. Why is

0:15:59.360 --> 0:16:03.760
<v Speaker 2>now the right place time to launch less such a launch,

0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:06.040
<v Speaker 2>launch such a big campaign internationally?

0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:10.280
<v Speaker 10>Well, first of all because we had a very proper

0:16:10.320 --> 0:16:16.200
<v Speaker 10>business agenda with President micro Goverdance since six years. And

0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:19.480
<v Speaker 10>then we are the most attractive country in Europe for

0:16:19.480 --> 0:16:24.800
<v Speaker 10>foreign investments for four years in a row. And I said,

0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:28.720
<v Speaker 10>it's a party, really good time, just after the World

0:16:28.840 --> 0:16:34.240
<v Speaker 10>Rudby Cup and just before the Olympics next year in Paris,

0:16:35.240 --> 0:16:42.280
<v Speaker 10>to make this nation branding campaign for choosing France and

0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:45.760
<v Speaker 10>say it too or investors around the world that they

0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:52.680
<v Speaker 10>are pretty really welcome here in France. I think it's

0:16:53.000 --> 0:17:00.480
<v Speaker 10>time to face tremendous challenges in it in Spain, in

0:17:00.640 --> 0:17:04.679
<v Speaker 10>health and France is a very good place to do it.

0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:09.240
<v Speaker 4>You know, Olivia, when you talk about tracking investment capital

0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:13.360
<v Speaker 4>and businesses to France, sort of prioritize for us. What's

0:17:13.400 --> 0:17:15.280
<v Speaker 4>at the top of that list. What would you really

0:17:15.640 --> 0:17:19.520
<v Speaker 4>love to see come into France as far as investment flows.

0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:23.520
<v Speaker 10>Well, we don't have really priorities. I think we have

0:17:23.560 --> 0:17:30.680
<v Speaker 10>a friend's twenty thirty investment plan for innovation. The first

0:17:30.760 --> 0:17:35.920
<v Speaker 10>priority in this plan is to govermnize industry, but we

0:17:35.960 --> 0:17:41.280
<v Speaker 10>also have priorities in artificial intelligence, in quantum, in biotechs,

0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:51.000
<v Speaker 10>to invent together twenty new biomedicines to twenty thirty, yeah,

0:17:51.200 --> 0:17:55.800
<v Speaker 10>and ten to twenty twenty five. We already have four.

0:17:57.119 --> 0:18:03.840
<v Speaker 10>We wanted to invest also in new energies like solar protunts,

0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:11.240
<v Speaker 10>like windforms like hydrogen, and we wanted to use the

0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:16.000
<v Speaker 10>new energies in mobilities to invent together the new plane

0:18:17.320 --> 0:18:22.920
<v Speaker 10>maybe tomorrow hydrogen plane, electric plane, or with other proputions

0:18:23.560 --> 0:18:27.720
<v Speaker 10>sustainable elevation fuel. So I think there is a lot

0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:32.120
<v Speaker 10>of money in this plane to help businesses to invest

0:18:32.560 --> 0:18:37.160
<v Speaker 10>in and we will be very happy if new American

0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:39.520
<v Speaker 10>companies will be part of this venture.

0:18:39.680 --> 0:18:42.639
<v Speaker 2>What would you say to somebody who says, you know,

0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:46.639
<v Speaker 2>it would be great for us to be investors in France,

0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:49.760
<v Speaker 2>but were intimidated by the regulatory environment, not just by

0:18:49.800 --> 0:18:54.359
<v Speaker 2>the regulatory environment of the EU, but also of the

0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:59.200
<v Speaker 2>French government. And then also, let's be frank, the labor laws.

0:19:00.760 --> 0:19:01.879
<v Speaker 2>I will say no.

0:19:02.720 --> 0:19:07.200
<v Speaker 10>I will tell to this person that they miss something.

0:19:07.520 --> 0:19:14.760
<v Speaker 10>During the six last year, we really transform Friends. We

0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:18.440
<v Speaker 10>reduce the tax burden. For instance, for twelve parate taxes,

0:19:18.480 --> 0:19:21.200
<v Speaker 10>it was a thirty three point five percent, it's now

0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:28.080
<v Speaker 10>twenty five percent. We cut ten maybe fifteen billion euro

0:19:29.160 --> 0:19:33.720
<v Speaker 10>on tax production. We reform the labor law. It's more

0:19:33.760 --> 0:19:43.320
<v Speaker 10>flexible now it's very secret, especially for job and I

0:19:43.359 --> 0:19:49.119
<v Speaker 10>think we also reduce all the complexity. We simplify the

0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:56.040
<v Speaker 10>administrative procedures. We have key turn sites to implant a factory. Yeah,

0:19:56.080 --> 0:19:59.879
<v Speaker 10>in nine months now in France. So I think that

0:20:00.080 --> 0:20:06.879
<v Speaker 10>to France in twenty fifteen, it's not Friends in twenty

0:20:07.000 --> 0:20:11.320
<v Speaker 10>twenty three, so it's really time for choosing France.

0:20:11.960 --> 0:20:15.680
<v Speaker 4>Well, and twenty twenty three kind of a strange year.

0:20:15.720 --> 0:20:17.680
<v Speaker 4>I mean, I feel like we've had a few very

0:20:17.720 --> 0:20:21.560
<v Speaker 4>strange years when it comes to global trade, geopolitics. I mean,

0:20:21.640 --> 0:20:24.560
<v Speaker 4>starting with, you know, the trade wars with the US

0:20:24.600 --> 0:20:27.960
<v Speaker 4>and China under the Trump administration, then the invasion of

0:20:28.040 --> 0:20:31.400
<v Speaker 4>Ukraine now Israel, and I think you know, from where

0:20:31.520 --> 0:20:34.600
<v Speaker 4>we're sitting, I think the assumption is that all of

0:20:34.640 --> 0:20:37.760
<v Speaker 4>this has perhaps brought the US and Europe in France

0:20:37.800 --> 0:20:41.080
<v Speaker 4>closer together, tightened their bonds. But I'm curious how you

0:20:41.119 --> 0:20:44.560
<v Speaker 4>see it. How does France and trade and investment in

0:20:44.600 --> 0:20:49.119
<v Speaker 4>France fit into this really dramatic shift in geopolitics that

0:20:49.160 --> 0:20:52.080
<v Speaker 4>we've seen over the last few years. Are there opportunities

0:20:52.119 --> 0:20:55.119
<v Speaker 4>more problems than opportunities, and you know, how do you

0:20:55.200 --> 0:20:57.400
<v Speaker 4>navigate all of these shifting.

0:20:58.560 --> 0:21:01.399
<v Speaker 10>I think you're right living in a time of shocks,

0:21:02.640 --> 0:21:09.000
<v Speaker 10>sanitary shocks with COVID nineteen, then the invasion war in

0:21:09.119 --> 0:21:16.760
<v Speaker 10>Ukraine from Russia now in the Middle East, and also

0:21:16.920 --> 0:21:23.400
<v Speaker 10>climate chocks and maybe technologic shocks. But in this time

0:21:23.480 --> 0:21:28.800
<v Speaker 10>of chocks, I think it's good first to restore the

0:21:28.880 --> 0:21:34.480
<v Speaker 10>multi la terrorism and I think we have a real issue.

0:21:35.800 --> 0:21:39.720
<v Speaker 10>Next February in the MC thirteen in Abuda by for

0:21:39.840 --> 0:21:45.080
<v Speaker 10>the WTO we should restore the dispart settlement mechanism. It

0:21:45.400 --> 0:21:50.720
<v Speaker 10>was one of the topics I spoke about with American

0:21:50.720 --> 0:21:57.680
<v Speaker 10>officials yesterday in Washington. And we have also to reinforce

0:21:58.320 --> 0:22:01.960
<v Speaker 10>the links between friends and United States. Europe and the

0:22:02.119 --> 0:22:08.200
<v Speaker 10>United States. We should now have permanent agreement on our

0:22:08.280 --> 0:22:14.960
<v Speaker 10>dispute on sustainable still and aluminium with herbus borrowing or

0:22:15.080 --> 0:22:20.920
<v Speaker 10>so I think we we we really have to change

0:22:22.440 --> 0:22:28.360
<v Speaker 10>our trade. We need more sustainable trade with new standards,

0:22:28.720 --> 0:22:32.160
<v Speaker 10>and I think Wto is a good place to do it.

0:22:33.200 --> 0:22:39.680
<v Speaker 10>But we must also reinforce the links between United States

0:22:39.680 --> 0:22:45.840
<v Speaker 10>and Europe because it's not only trade, it's it's friends showing.

0:22:46.920 --> 0:22:50.520
<v Speaker 10>It's also near showing. It's a place where we can

0:22:50.600 --> 0:22:57.520
<v Speaker 10>bude together violo chain in the field we need for

0:22:57.920 --> 0:22:59.480
<v Speaker 10>energy transition, for instance.

0:22:59.600 --> 0:23:02.040
<v Speaker 2>After all, the US and France are very close allies. Hey,

0:23:02.080 --> 0:23:03.280
<v Speaker 2>just in the last minute that we have with you,

0:23:03.400 --> 0:23:05.240
<v Speaker 2>want to talk politics a little bit. You're here in

0:23:05.280 --> 0:23:08.040
<v Speaker 2>the US. We're about to be in a presidential election year.

0:23:08.640 --> 0:23:09.919
<v Speaker 4>Really next year?

0:23:10.200 --> 0:23:10.680
<v Speaker 1>Next year?

0:23:11.720 --> 0:23:12.480
<v Speaker 7>You haven't heard about that?

0:23:12.840 --> 0:23:17.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I heard about it. How are you and and

0:23:17.440 --> 0:23:20.760
<v Speaker 2>your government watching what happens here next year? A potential

0:23:21.080 --> 0:23:21.960
<v Speaker 2>try two point oh?

0:23:22.200 --> 0:23:26.159
<v Speaker 10>Well, so you're right, friends in the United States, we

0:23:26.240 --> 0:23:32.400
<v Speaker 10>are the oldest ally, we are friends you know, I'm

0:23:32.440 --> 0:23:35.560
<v Speaker 10>coming from Alsast Regent and the border is friends and

0:23:35.600 --> 0:23:40.320
<v Speaker 10>the border in Germany and Switzerland, and I personally know

0:23:40.440 --> 0:23:45.359
<v Speaker 10>what we owned to the United States, just to our liberty. Yeah,

0:23:45.520 --> 0:23:50.680
<v Speaker 10>my grandparents were lived two World wars, so we really

0:23:50.720 --> 0:23:53.679
<v Speaker 10>have this link. And we don't forget, of course that

0:23:54.520 --> 0:23:57.919
<v Speaker 10>Lafayette and the French troops participate to the War of

0:23:58.119 --> 0:24:04.520
<v Speaker 10>Independence in Cheesypeak or in Yorktown. So I would say that,

0:24:05.480 --> 0:24:10.840
<v Speaker 10>of course we are already working well today with Biden administration,

0:24:12.200 --> 0:24:17.240
<v Speaker 10>but we respect as a foreign government, we respect the

0:24:17.320 --> 0:24:21.520
<v Speaker 10>democratic decision of the American people, and we will work,

0:24:21.760 --> 0:24:26.199
<v Speaker 10>of course with all the American governments. We just hope

0:24:26.560 --> 0:24:31.040
<v Speaker 10>that we will remain open is an issue.

0:24:31.200 --> 0:24:31.680
<v Speaker 9>It is not.

0:24:33.400 --> 0:24:36.960
<v Speaker 10>For us a solution today to face a certain levita.

0:24:36.960 --> 0:24:39.840
<v Speaker 2>I really appreciate you joining us. Olivia Besh, Minister Delegate

0:24:39.840 --> 0:24:42.800
<v Speaker 2>for Foreign Trade, Economic Attractiveness and French Nationals Abroad.

0:24:43.480 --> 0:24:47.040
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:24:47.080 --> 0:24:51.119
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

0:24:51.320 --> 0:24:54.560
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business app and YouTube. You can also listen

0:24:54.680 --> 0:24:57.800
<v Speaker 1>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

0:24:58.240 --> 0:25:01.040
<v Speaker 1>just say Alexa playing Bloom eleven thirty.

0:25:02.920 --> 0:25:06.200
<v Speaker 2>Bitcoin has been on a tear this year, Mike Reagan,

0:25:07.080 --> 0:25:09.600
<v Speaker 2>it really has. It's not in Nvidia or meta platforms,

0:25:10.040 --> 0:25:13.560
<v Speaker 2>but it's still up close to one hundred and forty

0:25:13.600 --> 0:25:16.560
<v Speaker 2>percent so far this year. And you're the crypto guy, now,

0:25:16.600 --> 0:25:17.159
<v Speaker 2>what's going on?

0:25:17.359 --> 0:25:17.600
<v Speaker 7>Well?

0:25:17.640 --> 0:25:20.120
<v Speaker 4>And it's it's funny because we talked about everything else

0:25:20.160 --> 0:25:22.119
<v Speaker 4>moving after the FED, but look at Bitcoin today, up

0:25:22.160 --> 0:25:25.680
<v Speaker 4>another four percent, knocking on the door of forty three

0:25:25.760 --> 0:25:28.080
<v Speaker 4>thousand dollars a token again.

0:25:28.119 --> 0:25:30.680
<v Speaker 2>And I'm sorry, is it twenty twenty one to feel

0:25:30.680 --> 0:25:32.560
<v Speaker 2>like it's trying to feel a little bit like it? Yeah,

0:25:32.600 --> 0:25:33.720
<v Speaker 2>But you know, I think the.

0:25:33.720 --> 0:25:37.760
<v Speaker 4>Main thing is, you know, anticipation of these ETFs being approved.

0:25:38.720 --> 0:25:41.719
<v Speaker 4>There's other more technical things the having next year, and

0:25:41.800 --> 0:25:45.640
<v Speaker 4>really the prospects for lower interest rates more liquidity from

0:25:45.720 --> 0:25:48.120
<v Speaker 4>the FED I think is helping too. But don't take

0:25:48.119 --> 0:25:50.880
<v Speaker 4>it for me, because we've got a much better expert

0:25:50.920 --> 0:25:53.800
<v Speaker 4>on this topic to walk us through everything going on

0:25:53.840 --> 0:25:56.439
<v Speaker 4>in the crypto market. His name is Jason Urban. He

0:25:56.520 --> 0:25:59.520
<v Speaker 4>is the global head of trading at Galaxy Digital. He's

0:25:59.560 --> 0:26:02.560
<v Speaker 4>joining us over zoom Zoom from New York City. Jason,

0:26:03.080 --> 0:26:04.240
<v Speaker 4>thank you for joining the show.

0:26:05.640 --> 0:26:06.399
<v Speaker 7>Thanks for having me.

0:26:06.440 --> 0:26:07.960
<v Speaker 11>This is great and I'm glad I could be here

0:26:08.000 --> 0:26:09.920
<v Speaker 11>on a day when when it's when it's good news

0:26:10.000 --> 0:26:11.199
<v Speaker 11>and not bad news.

0:26:12.680 --> 0:26:16.280
<v Speaker 4>And well, Jason, you know, we mentioned that ETF and

0:26:16.320 --> 0:26:19.160
<v Speaker 4>I think, you know, it's pretty much the consensus that

0:26:19.760 --> 0:26:23.640
<v Speaker 4>optimism about. Finally, what's it been over a decade since

0:26:23.680 --> 0:26:28.280
<v Speaker 4>the first application for a bitcoin ETF. We're finally potentially

0:26:28.320 --> 0:26:30.920
<v Speaker 4>near the finish line where the SEC might actually approve one.

0:26:31.320 --> 0:26:33.720
<v Speaker 4>But I think a lot of question on people's minds is,

0:26:33.960 --> 0:26:35.840
<v Speaker 4>you know, is that a sell the news event, is

0:26:35.840 --> 0:26:39.280
<v Speaker 4>all the hype before the ETF is actually launched, or

0:26:39.359 --> 0:26:42.000
<v Speaker 4>will we continue to see a bull market in bitcoin

0:26:42.520 --> 0:26:43.720
<v Speaker 4>once we do get an ETF.

0:26:45.200 --> 0:26:47.080
<v Speaker 11>I think it's going to continue to be a bull market,

0:26:47.400 --> 0:26:50.920
<v Speaker 11>and it's structural at the end of the day. If

0:26:50.960 --> 0:26:53.520
<v Speaker 11>you think about the crypto ecosystem, one of the things

0:26:53.560 --> 0:26:56.520
<v Speaker 11>that we've been missing for a long time is a

0:26:56.560 --> 0:27:01.919
<v Speaker 11>steady supply of assets and an actual pathway for money

0:27:01.920 --> 0:27:03.399
<v Speaker 11>to get in. And you can see that in how

0:27:03.440 --> 0:27:06.200
<v Speaker 11>the basis trades, especially when the markets are going higher.

0:27:06.560 --> 0:27:09.480
<v Speaker 11>That just means that there's less dollars in the ecosystem.

0:27:09.760 --> 0:27:12.359
<v Speaker 11>With an ETF, you're going to release that because people

0:27:12.359 --> 0:27:14.359
<v Speaker 11>are going to be able to pledge it as margin,

0:27:14.480 --> 0:27:16.119
<v Speaker 11>they're going to be able to buy it on margin,

0:27:16.440 --> 0:27:18.639
<v Speaker 11>and so that is going to push it higher. It

0:27:18.760 --> 0:27:22.160
<v Speaker 11>actually unleashes a lot of the value that has been

0:27:22.280 --> 0:27:25.760
<v Speaker 11>very difficult, and I think we saw some of the

0:27:26.480 --> 0:27:29.359
<v Speaker 11>darker days of crypto in twenty two when a lot

0:27:29.400 --> 0:27:32.560
<v Speaker 11>of these lenders who had extended leverage in an irresponsible way,

0:27:33.560 --> 0:27:35.679
<v Speaker 11>but that leverage what was fueling it. I know we

0:27:35.760 --> 0:27:38.400
<v Speaker 11>kind of you joked on the onset that twenty one

0:27:38.720 --> 0:27:41.840
<v Speaker 11>is this twenty twenty one again, Well, the ETF is

0:27:41.840 --> 0:27:43.359
<v Speaker 11>going to do that, but it's going to be able

0:27:43.359 --> 0:27:48.800
<v Speaker 11>to happen in a more responsible, appropriate way, and that's

0:27:48.840 --> 0:27:50.520
<v Speaker 11>what's going to pull it up. I mean, we're here

0:27:50.720 --> 0:27:55.800
<v Speaker 11>at Galaxy on the trade desk. We're seeing real, real

0:27:56.040 --> 0:27:59.720
<v Speaker 11>buyers come in, people who are who are not fast money,

0:28:00.040 --> 0:28:02.800
<v Speaker 11>but who are buy and hold, who are who believing

0:28:02.840 --> 0:28:05.680
<v Speaker 11>in it, and they're not you know, the usual people

0:28:05.720 --> 0:28:08.600
<v Speaker 11>that you would normally see. And quite frankly, frankly, it's

0:28:08.640 --> 0:28:12.120
<v Speaker 11>really encouraging because when I will come on the desk

0:28:12.160 --> 0:28:14.240
<v Speaker 11>and they say, x y Z just bought them, Like really,

0:28:14.480 --> 0:28:17.200
<v Speaker 11>We've been talking to them for two years and finally,

0:28:17.600 --> 0:28:19.760
<v Speaker 11>you know, they've decided to pull the trigger. And so

0:28:19.920 --> 0:28:23.359
<v Speaker 11>I think the ETF only only one makes them more comfortable,

0:28:23.359 --> 0:28:26.720
<v Speaker 11>and then two structurally allows more money to flow into

0:28:26.760 --> 0:28:27.399
<v Speaker 11>the ecosystem.

0:28:27.520 --> 0:28:29.160
<v Speaker 7>So I think it really is a big positive.

0:28:29.440 --> 0:28:31.240
<v Speaker 4>Oh, Jason, if only you could tell me who x

0:28:31.320 --> 0:28:33.000
<v Speaker 4>y Z is. I have a feeling you won't, but.

0:28:36.720 --> 0:28:40.000
<v Speaker 11>X y Z wouldn't be a client anymore if I exactly.

0:28:40.920 --> 0:28:45.080
<v Speaker 4>But you know, Jason, obviously, if we do think back

0:28:45.120 --> 0:28:49.160
<v Speaker 4>to twenty twenty one, it was such a different market

0:28:49.200 --> 0:28:51.760
<v Speaker 4>than in that we weren't just talking about Bitcoin. We

0:28:51.760 --> 0:28:54.240
<v Speaker 4>were talking about you know, doge coin and all these

0:28:54.320 --> 0:28:59.440
<v Speaker 4>other fringe token salt coins. But really the other big

0:28:59.440 --> 0:29:05.520
<v Speaker 4>story then was this lending crypto borrow and lending operations

0:29:06.000 --> 0:29:10.280
<v Speaker 4>that really you know, some eye popping yields back in

0:29:10.320 --> 0:29:12.720
<v Speaker 4>the days when there was no yield to be found anywhere.

0:29:12.760 --> 0:29:15.240
<v Speaker 4>And of course it all it all sort of blew

0:29:15.320 --> 0:29:19.280
<v Speaker 4>up spectacularly last year. But I can't help but wonder

0:29:19.320 --> 0:29:24.800
<v Speaker 4>if that lending and borrowing market will have a rebirth

0:29:25.160 --> 0:29:27.720
<v Speaker 4>given what crypto prices are doing now. You know, we

0:29:27.760 --> 0:29:31.959
<v Speaker 4>saw some new Sam Altman, the open Ai co founder,

0:29:32.360 --> 0:29:35.920
<v Speaker 4>starting a bitcoin private credit fund. Where where is that

0:29:36.320 --> 0:29:40.960
<v Speaker 4>element of the market, the lending and borrowing and yield farming?

0:29:41.200 --> 0:29:43.480
<v Speaker 4>Where is all that? Are we coming back in that

0:29:43.520 --> 0:29:44.200
<v Speaker 4>space as well?

0:29:45.120 --> 0:29:47.680
<v Speaker 11>Not as quickly as I think we'd like. I mean,

0:29:47.720 --> 0:29:50.480
<v Speaker 11>here here, Galaxy, we have a lending business. Now, We've

0:29:50.520 --> 0:29:54.640
<v Speaker 11>always lend oversecured and have been responsible with it. I

0:29:54.680 --> 0:29:58.240
<v Speaker 11>think that what you're finding is that will come back,

0:29:58.400 --> 0:30:00.640
<v Speaker 11>but you need to find the structure to allow that

0:30:00.760 --> 0:30:04.160
<v Speaker 11>to come back because the days of you know, I

0:30:04.200 --> 0:30:07.880
<v Speaker 11>think the true bitcoin is not your keys, not your coin.

0:30:08.200 --> 0:30:11.000
<v Speaker 11>We're proven proven right in the aftermath of twenty one

0:30:11.600 --> 0:30:14.040
<v Speaker 11>and so you know, as we look at our business

0:30:14.120 --> 0:30:16.480
<v Speaker 11>and what what the inbound we're getting. People are looking

0:30:16.520 --> 0:30:19.040
<v Speaker 11>for leverage and there aren't a lot of places that

0:30:19.080 --> 0:30:23.120
<v Speaker 11>are that are that are equipped to give it one

0:30:23.320 --> 0:30:25.920
<v Speaker 11>and two have a structure in place that allows for

0:30:25.960 --> 0:30:26.600
<v Speaker 11>that to happen.

0:30:27.000 --> 0:30:28.200
<v Speaker 7>Prime is prime is.

0:30:28.160 --> 0:30:32.200
<v Speaker 11>A h A true prime or a real prime is

0:30:32.240 --> 0:30:35.960
<v Speaker 11>something that the ecosystem generally needs. We have a product

0:30:36.000 --> 0:30:39.520
<v Speaker 11>that we're rolling out g One that that hopefully addresses

0:30:39.560 --> 0:30:42.120
<v Speaker 11>some of that, but really on a full scale. It's

0:30:42.160 --> 0:30:45.240
<v Speaker 11>not there and we can't. We're not getting there yet

0:30:46.720 --> 0:30:49.600
<v Speaker 11>as a as a community. And so that's why I

0:30:49.640 --> 0:30:52.280
<v Speaker 11>think again back to the ETF, why that is important

0:30:52.640 --> 0:30:54.840
<v Speaker 11>is because that is an equity that fits into a

0:30:54.880 --> 0:30:57.800
<v Speaker 11>system that everyone is comfortable with and a lot of

0:30:57.840 --> 0:31:00.160
<v Speaker 11>the traders and a lot of the trading desks that

0:31:00.200 --> 0:31:02.560
<v Speaker 11>are in space, we'll just use that and.

0:31:02.520 --> 0:31:03.840
<v Speaker 7>They'll do a delta replacement.

0:31:04.040 --> 0:31:07.120
<v Speaker 11>They'll buy the ETF, they'll sell their bitcoin, release cash,

0:31:07.560 --> 0:31:10.400
<v Speaker 11>use the cash to buy more bitcoin or some of

0:31:10.440 --> 0:31:12.920
<v Speaker 11>these other coins that actually are very.

0:31:13.200 --> 0:31:15.160
<v Speaker 7>That that serve a purpose, right.

0:31:15.360 --> 0:31:17.320
<v Speaker 11>I think that when we looked at all coins and

0:31:17.680 --> 0:31:22.040
<v Speaker 11>you know, some of the names on that, historically people

0:31:22.080 --> 0:31:25.320
<v Speaker 11>forget that that's the technology. Hey, and there's a need

0:31:25.360 --> 0:31:25.600
<v Speaker 11>for that.

0:31:25.920 --> 0:31:28.240
<v Speaker 2>Hey, Jason, I got to ask you a more basic

0:31:28.360 --> 0:31:30.560
<v Speaker 2>question here, and what's one that just comes down to

0:31:30.640 --> 0:31:32.680
<v Speaker 2>sort of fundamentals and beliefs. Here, I got to get

0:31:32.720 --> 0:31:34.840
<v Speaker 2>you to react to what Jamie Diamond said last week,

0:31:35.560 --> 0:31:38.360
<v Speaker 2>and for those who don't know what he said, the

0:31:38.400 --> 0:31:41.560
<v Speaker 2>only true use case for crypto is criminals, drug traffickers.

0:31:41.640 --> 0:31:44.480
<v Speaker 2>He talked about tax avoidance, money laundering. He said, if

0:31:44.480 --> 0:31:46.840
<v Speaker 2>I was the government, I'd close it down. We have

0:31:46.840 --> 0:31:48.280
<v Speaker 2>a minute left you What did you make of that?

0:31:49.480 --> 0:31:52.440
<v Speaker 11>Uh, he's talking his own book. I mean, if if

0:31:52.480 --> 0:31:54.440
<v Speaker 11>I could, if I could look at how I would

0:31:54.480 --> 0:31:59.000
<v Speaker 11>protect my brand or my ecosystem. Cryptos and blockchain is

0:31:59.040 --> 0:32:01.680
<v Speaker 11>a disintermediating action, right, and so at the end of

0:32:01.720 --> 0:32:04.160
<v Speaker 11>the day, of course he's going to say that dollars,

0:32:04.360 --> 0:32:08.160
<v Speaker 11>physical dollars are used more for illicit activity than crypto.

0:32:08.240 --> 0:32:12.520
<v Speaker 11>It can be traced everywhere, every it's immutable. The whole

0:32:12.560 --> 0:32:15.040
<v Speaker 11>purpose of an immutable blockchain is that it can be

0:32:15.120 --> 0:32:16.800
<v Speaker 11>tracked all the way back to its origin.

0:32:17.160 --> 0:32:18.280
<v Speaker 7>So if you're a bad.

0:32:18.040 --> 0:32:21.080
<v Speaker 11>Guy doing bad things, you're not using crypto, You're going

0:32:21.120 --> 0:32:23.680
<v Speaker 11>to use other things that can't be tracked. And and

0:32:23.720 --> 0:32:25.560
<v Speaker 11>so I think that he's just talking his own book,

0:32:26.040 --> 0:32:26.680
<v Speaker 11>quite frankly.

0:32:28.000 --> 0:32:32.440
<v Speaker 2>All right, very interesting, very interesting. It's it's the gift

0:32:32.440 --> 0:32:35.560
<v Speaker 2>that keeps on giving Jamie Diamond when he talks about crypto,

0:32:35.600 --> 0:32:36.040
<v Speaker 2>I have to.

0:32:36.000 --> 0:32:40.600
<v Speaker 4>Say, yeah, yeah, they do have their own coining to it.

0:32:40.680 --> 0:32:43.680
<v Speaker 2>Jason Irban, Global head of Trading a Galaxy Digital, the

0:32:43.840 --> 0:32:46.840
<v Speaker 2>Michael Novograts founded and led crypto firm. Thanks so much

0:32:46.840 --> 0:32:48.320
<v Speaker 2>for joining us. This is Bloomberg.

0:32:52.640 --> 0:32:53.640
<v Speaker 1>I'm riding.

0:32:56.320 --> 0:32:57.000
<v Speaker 2>The journal.

0:32:58.480 --> 0:32:59.000
<v Speaker 9>Let me drive.

0:32:59.280 --> 0:33:01.120
<v Speaker 6>Oh no, no, no, who's gone.

0:33:02.360 --> 0:33:02.719
<v Speaker 2>Honey?

0:33:02.840 --> 0:33:04.720
<v Speaker 4>Please gravels.

0:33:05.800 --> 0:33:06.560
<v Speaker 1>I want to drive.

0:33:08.800 --> 0:33:09.680
<v Speaker 8>It's a good question.

0:33:13.520 --> 0:33:20.120
<v Speaker 1>This is the Drive to the Globes on Bloomberg Radio.

0:33:20.880 --> 0:33:21.160
<v Speaker 11>Hello.

0:33:21.160 --> 0:33:23.840
<v Speaker 2>Hello, live from the Bloomberg INTERACTI Broker's studio. We're streaming

0:33:23.840 --> 0:33:27.440
<v Speaker 2>on YouTube and a Bloomberg Originals. Wednesday, December thirteenth, twenty

0:33:27.520 --> 0:33:31.120
<v Speaker 2>twenty three. A Happy FED Day to everyone and especially

0:33:31.120 --> 0:33:33.680
<v Speaker 2>the Fed. Shair Jay Powell, who pretty much could have

0:33:33.720 --> 0:33:35.960
<v Speaker 2>done a song and dance up there, seemed like he

0:33:36.040 --> 0:33:38.840
<v Speaker 2>was pretty excited about the direction that things are moving.

0:33:39.160 --> 0:33:42.440
<v Speaker 2>We're seeing uh stocks higher, We're seeing yields go down.

0:33:42.440 --> 0:33:44.840
<v Speaker 2>That was certainly the FED meeting heard around the world.

0:33:44.840 --> 0:33:47.520
<v Speaker 2>I'm Tim Stanebeck, along with my co host Bloomberg News

0:33:47.560 --> 0:33:49.840
<v Speaker 2>is Mike Reagan, who's also now the leader of the

0:33:49.880 --> 0:33:52.080
<v Speaker 2>Crypto team. Mike, what did you think of that?

0:33:52.600 --> 0:33:54.480
<v Speaker 4>Well, you know, it's interesting, Tim, I mean a lot

0:33:54.520 --> 0:33:57.600
<v Speaker 4>of times when the FED comes out with a statement

0:33:57.640 --> 0:34:01.480
<v Speaker 4>that's interpreted one way by the market as dubbish, Powell

0:34:02.160 --> 0:34:06.600
<v Speaker 4>sort of appear to intentionally talk the market out of

0:34:06.640 --> 0:34:07.240
<v Speaker 4>that reaction.

0:34:07.280 --> 0:34:08.040
<v Speaker 2>Didn't see that today.

0:34:08.040 --> 0:34:10.880
<v Speaker 4>I did not see that today at all, SMP up

0:34:10.920 --> 0:34:13.520
<v Speaker 4>more than one percent, all the major indexes up more

0:34:13.560 --> 0:34:16.080
<v Speaker 4>than one percent. I mean, these moves after a FED

0:34:16.160 --> 0:34:19.680
<v Speaker 4>press conference oftentime can be volatile and sort of not

0:34:19.880 --> 0:34:23.279
<v Speaker 4>necessarily indicative of what to expect tomorrow and for the

0:34:23.320 --> 0:34:26.200
<v Speaker 4>rest of the week. But boy, for the moment, everyone

0:34:26.200 --> 0:34:28.400
<v Speaker 4>seems very happy with this statement in press conference.

0:34:28.480 --> 0:34:31.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, they certainly do. It's a fascinating day, and I

0:34:31.120 --> 0:34:33.120
<v Speaker 2>think everyone's going to remember who pays attention to this

0:34:33.160 --> 0:34:35.400
<v Speaker 2>stuff where they were, because it does seem like that

0:34:35.400 --> 0:34:37.840
<v Speaker 2>the FED has declared victory, although it kind of he

0:34:37.880 --> 0:34:39.799
<v Speaker 2>came out and said we haven't yet declared victory. The

0:34:39.840 --> 0:34:42.800
<v Speaker 2>market's saying that they've declared victory when it comes to

0:34:42.800 --> 0:34:44.080
<v Speaker 2>the war on inflation.

0:34:43.880 --> 0:34:47.759
<v Speaker 4>Right, and that FED dot plot is so important, really telegraphing,

0:34:48.120 --> 0:34:50.840
<v Speaker 4>you know, the likelihood of three rate cuts of a

0:34:50.920 --> 0:34:54.720
<v Speaker 4>quarter point next year, so much closer to what the

0:34:54.760 --> 0:34:58.799
<v Speaker 4>interest rate market was expecting. So you know, it's off

0:34:58.800 --> 0:35:01.240
<v Speaker 4>to the races in both and bond markets today. Pretty

0:35:01.280 --> 0:35:02.520
<v Speaker 4>pretty remarkable move.

0:35:02.760 --> 0:35:05.200
<v Speaker 2>Let's see what Sarah Ponsik has to say about all this.

0:35:05.239 --> 0:35:08.240
<v Speaker 2>She's financial advisor UBS, a private wealth management She's somebody

0:35:08.239 --> 0:35:11.759
<v Speaker 2>who our audience knows well and somebody who Mike you

0:35:11.800 --> 0:35:14.719
<v Speaker 2>know pretty well because she was your co anchor of

0:35:14.760 --> 0:35:17.319
<v Speaker 2>the What Goes Up podcast for so many years here

0:35:17.320 --> 0:35:20.359
<v Speaker 2>at Bloomberg before she went over to ups, Sarah, good

0:35:20.360 --> 0:35:21.000
<v Speaker 2>to have you with us.

0:35:21.000 --> 0:35:21.400
<v Speaker 7>How are you?

0:35:22.680 --> 0:35:24.760
<v Speaker 9>I'm great? And yeah, I was just about to say,

0:35:24.880 --> 0:35:27.640
<v Speaker 9>Mike's come a really long way. How do the crypto teams?

0:35:27.680 --> 0:35:30.080
<v Speaker 9>So it's the two of us hosted a podcast together.

0:35:31.760 --> 0:35:32.000
<v Speaker 7>Things.

0:35:32.040 --> 0:35:34.000
<v Speaker 4>Mike, you're gonna put all your clients in crypto? I

0:35:34.000 --> 0:35:35.839
<v Speaker 4>assume I can't.

0:35:35.920 --> 0:35:39.440
<v Speaker 9>I can't discuss that.

0:35:40.360 --> 0:35:40.640
<v Speaker 4>Sarah.

0:35:40.680 --> 0:35:42.319
<v Speaker 2>What do you make of what we just heard from

0:35:42.320 --> 0:35:46.880
<v Speaker 2>FED share J Powell? I mean, market's certainly loving it.

0:35:46.520 --> 0:35:50.640
<v Speaker 9>It really is remarkable. I mean the Fed essentially came

0:35:50.719 --> 0:35:53.279
<v Speaker 9>to the table today. Powell came to the table and

0:35:53.280 --> 0:35:56.320
<v Speaker 9>they patted themselves on the back saying that look, inflation

0:35:57.160 --> 0:36:00.880
<v Speaker 9>has eased uh and economic growth has but you know,

0:36:01.000 --> 0:36:04.920
<v Speaker 9>it's still looking pretty good. And it's really remarkable because

0:36:05.040 --> 0:36:07.800
<v Speaker 9>the Fed had every option after this last month and

0:36:07.840 --> 0:36:11.600
<v Speaker 9>a half to push back against the bond market. We

0:36:11.680 --> 0:36:15.000
<v Speaker 9>had seen in November the best month, the largest rally

0:36:15.160 --> 0:36:18.600
<v Speaker 9>for the agg the bond market benchmark since nineteen eighty five,

0:36:18.880 --> 0:36:21.520
<v Speaker 9>and that had really undone a lot of the tightening

0:36:21.880 --> 0:36:26.440
<v Speaker 9>that the Federal Reserve had done. They had even said previously, oh, well,

0:36:26.440 --> 0:36:28.799
<v Speaker 9>the market's done some of our tightening work for us.

0:36:29.040 --> 0:36:31.320
<v Speaker 9>So again, they had every option to push back against

0:36:31.320 --> 0:36:33.840
<v Speaker 9>the bond rally and they didn't, which is.

0:36:34.000 --> 0:36:35.880
<v Speaker 7>Really telling, really telling.

0:36:35.920 --> 0:36:38.319
<v Speaker 9>The fact that you know, the median dot next year

0:36:38.360 --> 0:36:42.520
<v Speaker 9>is now showing seventy five basis points of cuts. Sure,

0:36:42.600 --> 0:36:45.960
<v Speaker 9>that's the median. Some expect more, some expect less. But

0:36:46.320 --> 0:36:48.520
<v Speaker 9>just the fact that the Fed did not push back

0:36:48.680 --> 0:36:51.600
<v Speaker 9>against the markets easing over the past month and a

0:36:51.600 --> 0:36:55.600
<v Speaker 9>half is something that's big for the market. Is clearly

0:36:55.640 --> 0:36:57.920
<v Speaker 9>we're seeing in the rally in both bonds and stocks today.

0:36:58.400 --> 0:37:00.520
<v Speaker 4>You know, Sarah, I think one thing that has a

0:37:00.520 --> 0:37:03.080
<v Speaker 4>lot of people nervous about a year like this is,

0:37:03.320 --> 0:37:05.200
<v Speaker 4>at least for much of the year, it was such

0:37:05.200 --> 0:37:09.000
<v Speaker 4>a top heavy rally. You know, those big famous tech stocks,

0:37:09.040 --> 0:37:12.800
<v Speaker 4>the whether you call them the Magnificent seven or the Fangs, whatever,

0:37:12.840 --> 0:37:15.320
<v Speaker 4>the latest whatever the kids are calling them these days,

0:37:16.200 --> 0:37:19.080
<v Speaker 4>really drove the bus on this market rally this year.

0:37:19.360 --> 0:37:22.080
<v Speaker 4>How are you thinking about that going forward and what

0:37:22.120 --> 0:37:24.080
<v Speaker 4>are you telling your clients, I mean, is it time

0:37:24.160 --> 0:37:28.279
<v Speaker 4>to maybe diversify into everything else? Does that make sense?

0:37:28.320 --> 0:37:28.840
<v Speaker 7>At this point?

0:37:30.120 --> 0:37:32.319
<v Speaker 9>It does make sense, and we've seen that trade work.

0:37:32.400 --> 0:37:34.760
<v Speaker 9>If you look at the month of November, for example,

0:37:35.320 --> 0:37:37.600
<v Speaker 9>the equal weight version of the S and P five hundred,

0:37:37.600 --> 0:37:40.959
<v Speaker 9>which gives every single company in the index the same

0:37:41.000 --> 0:37:43.560
<v Speaker 9>weight as those magnificent seven or like as you like

0:37:43.600 --> 0:37:46.040
<v Speaker 9>you said, whatever the kids are calling calling them these days,

0:37:46.320 --> 0:37:49.080
<v Speaker 9>same exact weight, the equal weight version actually outperformed. We

0:37:49.120 --> 0:37:53.040
<v Speaker 9>saw small caps outperformed. We saw cyclical industries that had

0:37:53.120 --> 0:37:56.680
<v Speaker 9>lagged all year long outperform. And what's interesting is if

0:37:56.719 --> 0:37:59.160
<v Speaker 9>you look at the trade today, if you look at

0:37:59.200 --> 0:38:01.960
<v Speaker 9>it by sector, look at your best performers. I'm looking

0:38:02.000 --> 0:38:06.120
<v Speaker 9>at it right now. Your best industries are utilities up

0:38:06.160 --> 0:38:08.880
<v Speaker 9>three point six percent, real estate up three and a half,

0:38:09.040 --> 0:38:11.959
<v Speaker 9>Staples at one point seven, healthcare at one point six,

0:38:12.400 --> 0:38:16.359
<v Speaker 9>and your worst sectors are tech and communication services. So

0:38:16.600 --> 0:38:21.239
<v Speaker 9>we're seeing a complete flip of what we've become accustomed

0:38:21.280 --> 0:38:24.359
<v Speaker 9>to throughout this year, where the best performers are now

0:38:24.360 --> 0:38:27.440
<v Speaker 9>the laggers. Yes they're still lagrating. Everything is rallying today,

0:38:27.960 --> 0:38:31.479
<v Speaker 9>but we're seeing the laggards from this year really start

0:38:31.480 --> 0:38:32.080
<v Speaker 9>to lead the way.

0:38:32.440 --> 0:38:36.280
<v Speaker 2>Anything make you nervous, Sarah.

0:38:35.320 --> 0:38:37.080
<v Speaker 9>That is always something that makes me nervous.

0:38:37.120 --> 0:38:39.280
<v Speaker 4>I've ever seen gets.

0:38:40.680 --> 0:38:41.280
<v Speaker 1>Deep inside.

0:38:42.800 --> 0:38:46.399
<v Speaker 9>Look, I mean, things are pretty good right now one

0:38:46.440 --> 0:38:48.200
<v Speaker 9>on the bond side of the equation, and I would

0:38:48.200 --> 0:38:51.480
<v Speaker 9>honestly say that one of the most difficult things for

0:38:51.560 --> 0:38:54.160
<v Speaker 9>our clients over the past couple of years has been

0:38:54.280 --> 0:38:57.279
<v Speaker 9>understanding that bonds can drop in value. You know, your

0:38:57.320 --> 0:38:59.480
<v Speaker 9>bonds are still performing, they're still paying you income, but

0:38:59.520 --> 0:39:02.120
<v Speaker 9>on paper are going to have losses because you know,

0:39:02.320 --> 0:39:04.560
<v Speaker 9>rates are now higher than they were when you bought

0:39:04.600 --> 0:39:07.520
<v Speaker 9>those bonds. So that was really difficult. And now something

0:39:07.520 --> 0:39:11.560
<v Speaker 9>to be optimistic about is bond holdings and bond performance.

0:39:11.880 --> 0:39:15.279
<v Speaker 9>As you know, we really saw takeoff in November, and

0:39:15.320 --> 0:39:17.880
<v Speaker 9>it seems like it's continuing to and we do expect

0:39:18.080 --> 0:39:21.560
<v Speaker 9>bond returns over the next year and going forwards to

0:39:21.640 --> 0:39:24.680
<v Speaker 9>be pretty strong. Now when it comes to stocks, it's

0:39:24.719 --> 0:39:28.359
<v Speaker 9>interesting because when you look at the fundamentals, there are

0:39:28.480 --> 0:39:31.200
<v Speaker 9>reasons to be optimistic going into next year, one being

0:39:31.239 --> 0:39:34.640
<v Speaker 9>corporate earnings. When you look at twenty twenty three, corporate

0:39:34.640 --> 0:39:36.720
<v Speaker 9>earnings for the S and P five hundred were flat.

0:39:36.800 --> 0:39:39.040
<v Speaker 9>We didn't see any growth, They didn't see any declines,

0:39:39.080 --> 0:39:41.839
<v Speaker 9>but they didn't go anywhere. Now into twenty twenty four,

0:39:42.200 --> 0:39:44.879
<v Speaker 9>our chief investment office is expecting that we should see

0:39:44.880 --> 0:39:49.280
<v Speaker 9>about nine percent profit growth, which you know, stocks follow earnings,

0:39:49.320 --> 0:39:52.879
<v Speaker 9>so that would goode well for the market. But at

0:39:52.880 --> 0:39:55.600
<v Speaker 9>the same time, when the market is now pricing in

0:39:55.640 --> 0:39:58.640
<v Speaker 9>as many cuts as they're pricing in twenty twenty four,

0:40:00.200 --> 0:40:03.320
<v Speaker 9>usually when the Fed starts cutting, it's not a slow grind.

0:40:03.400 --> 0:40:08.319
<v Speaker 9>They start cutting pretty quickly because something's gone wrong. Now

0:40:08.400 --> 0:40:11.040
<v Speaker 9>that could bode well for the bond market, could be

0:40:11.080 --> 0:40:13.840
<v Speaker 9>a rocky one for the stock market. So I'm always

0:40:13.880 --> 0:40:17.359
<v Speaker 9>worried about something. But yeah, sometimes things just seem too

0:40:17.520 --> 0:40:20.560
<v Speaker 9>good to be true. And even though you look, we're

0:40:20.600 --> 0:40:23.520
<v Speaker 9>still projecting positive returns in the bond and stock market,

0:40:23.680 --> 0:40:26.560
<v Speaker 9>you know, next year it's probably it could be a

0:40:26.640 --> 0:40:29.600
<v Speaker 9>rocky ride. And the fact that everyone now seems to

0:40:29.640 --> 0:40:32.520
<v Speaker 9>believe in this stock landing narrative, yet the Fed's going

0:40:32.600 --> 0:40:35.160
<v Speaker 9>to potentially have to cut five times next year according

0:40:35.160 --> 0:40:37.520
<v Speaker 9>to the market, something doesn't necessarily add.

0:40:37.440 --> 0:40:40.040
<v Speaker 4>Up there, you know, Sarah, I remember a year or

0:40:40.040 --> 0:40:43.399
<v Speaker 4>two ago, I feel like half of the stories that

0:40:43.480 --> 0:40:49.040
<v Speaker 4>came out of markets. Coverage were about how sixty forty

0:40:49.120 --> 0:40:51.920
<v Speaker 4>is dead. You know, bond yields are at rock bottom,

0:40:51.960 --> 0:40:55.400
<v Speaker 4>interest rates, stock valuations are high. You really need to

0:40:55.400 --> 0:40:59.239
<v Speaker 4>rethink that. I can't help but wonder though, now, is

0:40:59.239 --> 0:41:02.480
<v Speaker 4>is it sixty forty? Are the kids in the sixty

0:41:02.560 --> 0:41:03.719
<v Speaker 4>forty these days? Is it back?

0:41:04.000 --> 0:41:05.880
<v Speaker 9>The kids that are into sixty forty these days? Sixty

0:41:05.920 --> 0:41:08.600
<v Speaker 9>forties backs? At least for the month of November. What

0:41:08.719 --> 0:41:10.200
<v Speaker 9>was it in the month of November? It was the

0:41:10.200 --> 0:41:13.240
<v Speaker 9>best month for the sixty forty portfolios since the early nineties.

0:41:13.880 --> 0:41:15.920
<v Speaker 9>So that just goes to show. But much of that

0:41:16.040 --> 0:41:19.360
<v Speaker 9>is predicated upon the fact that the sixty forty portfolio

0:41:19.520 --> 0:41:22.080
<v Speaker 9>was claimed to be dead. And don't get me wrong,

0:41:22.080 --> 0:41:24.879
<v Speaker 9>the sixty forty portfolio has gone through many tribulations over

0:41:24.920 --> 0:41:28.080
<v Speaker 9>the past couple of years because interest rates were at

0:41:28.160 --> 0:41:30.960
<v Speaker 9>rock bottom. You know, you really couldn't get much income

0:41:31.000 --> 0:41:34.160
<v Speaker 9>from the bond market. And with the rise in bond

0:41:34.200 --> 0:41:36.640
<v Speaker 9>yields and the rise in interest rates, we were going

0:41:36.680 --> 0:41:39.799
<v Speaker 9>to see negative returns, you know, a bear market in

0:41:39.840 --> 0:41:42.480
<v Speaker 9>bonds when that day came, which we saw for the

0:41:42.480 --> 0:41:46.480
<v Speaker 9>past couple of years. Now, you know, stock returns should

0:41:46.520 --> 0:41:48.799
<v Speaker 9>continue to be pretty strong. And on the flip side

0:41:48.800 --> 0:41:50.600
<v Speaker 9>of that, when you look at the forty percent side,

0:41:50.640 --> 0:41:54.280
<v Speaker 9>the bond side, well, if you are locking in bond yields,

0:41:54.360 --> 0:41:56.920
<v Speaker 9>then you should. If you're someone's still sitting in cash,

0:41:56.960 --> 0:41:59.319
<v Speaker 9>you know, now's kind of the time the flag's been

0:41:59.360 --> 0:42:02.279
<v Speaker 9>waived to go ahead and lock in yields. Further out

0:42:02.320 --> 0:42:04.960
<v Speaker 9>on the curve, Well, now you can actually get income

0:42:05.160 --> 0:42:07.359
<v Speaker 9>from that forty percent in bonds, and you can also

0:42:07.400 --> 0:42:11.080
<v Speaker 9>potentially get capital appreciation what interest rates do come down

0:42:11.120 --> 0:42:13.040
<v Speaker 9>over the next couple of years. So yes, Mike, I

0:42:13.040 --> 0:42:15.920
<v Speaker 9>think the kids would say sixty forty's back. But I

0:42:15.920 --> 0:42:18.279
<v Speaker 9>would also add to that, we do believe and for

0:42:19.640 --> 0:42:22.920
<v Speaker 9>the majority of our clients, we typically take a portion

0:42:23.440 --> 0:42:26.040
<v Speaker 9>of that forty or sixty, depending on you the client's

0:42:26.080 --> 0:42:29.440
<v Speaker 9>time horizon restolerance, and we allocate that to private markets

0:42:29.440 --> 0:42:32.520
<v Speaker 9>as well. So I wouldn't say just Vanilla sixty forty,

0:42:32.520 --> 0:42:34.160
<v Speaker 9>but maybe spice it up and add in a little

0:42:34.160 --> 0:42:35.680
<v Speaker 9>bit of alternative investments as well.

0:42:35.760 --> 0:42:38.440
<v Speaker 2>All Sarah Ponsick, we love it when you join us.

0:42:38.440 --> 0:42:39.719
<v Speaker 2>I think we'll have to do a remote down in

0:42:39.760 --> 0:42:42.680
<v Speaker 2>book raton Florida and we can all hang out there

0:42:42.719 --> 0:42:46.200
<v Speaker 2>this winter. Sarah Ponzick, financial advisor at UBS Private Wealth Management,

0:42:46.239 --> 0:42:48.800
<v Speaker 2>joining us on a zoom from Florida.

0:42:49.080 --> 0:42:52.319
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. I'll a little

0:42:52.400 --> 0:42:55.880
<v Speaker 1>on Apple and Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcast.

0:42:56.400 --> 0:43:00.560
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0:43:00.640 --> 0:43:03.960
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0:43:04.000 --> 0:43:06.880
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0:43:06.920 --> 0:43:09.800
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