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Speaker 1: Quite a time to be going through all of these changes,

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Speaker 1: and you recently wrote a paper on artificial intelligence, and

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Speaker 1: I want to start with just asking you about which

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Speaker 1: countries you see benefiting the most and what you see

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Speaker 1: being luck behind in the most severe ways.

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Speaker 2: Let me start by saying that.

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Speaker 3: This summer, during my birthday celebration, I got a very

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Speaker 3: interesting present. The nerds in my family, the younger people,

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Speaker 3: gave me a portrait of me done by artificial intelligence.

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Speaker 3: And I looked at it. It was actually pretty good portrait,

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Speaker 3: and I thought, huh, this is moving.

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Speaker 2: Faster than I thought.

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Speaker 3: And with my colleagues, we looked into the data and

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Speaker 3: here is the answer to your question from a labor

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Speaker 3: market perspective.

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Speaker 2: In other words, what happens to jobs.

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Speaker 3: Advanced economies and a very small number of emerging market

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Speaker 3: economies are going to see the biggest opportunity for them,

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Speaker 3: but also the highest risks. Sixty percent of jobs in

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Speaker 3: advanced economies over a foreseeable future are going to be

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Speaker 3: impacted by artificial intelligence, and they would be impacted in

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Speaker 3: one of two ways. If you're lucky, artificial intelligence will

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Speaker 3: enhance your productivity, make your job more enjoyable, and very

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Speaker 3: likely better paid.

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Speaker 2: If you are unlucky, your job is gone.

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Speaker 3: And that also means that who benefits is not determined

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Speaker 3: only by whether you were born in a more developed

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Speaker 3: country or not. It is determined by the kind of

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Speaker 3: job you hold. When we looked at the impact on

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Speaker 3: emerging markets and developing economies, emerging markets would see forty

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Speaker 3: percent of jobs impacted. Low income countries twenty six percent.

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Speaker 3: You can say, well, that gives them a long time

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Speaker 3: to prepare, but also it may mean they miss on productivity.

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Speaker 2: And why is this absolutely essential?

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Speaker 3: Because over the last years you mentioned I started twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 3: since COVID hit US, the world has been either in

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Speaker 3: recession in twenty twenty or growing relatively slowly, with the

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Speaker 3: exception of twenty twenty one that was a recovery year.

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Speaker 3: Three percent growth year after year after year all the

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Speaker 3: way in the next couple of years is way below

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Speaker 3: the historic avery of three point eight percent that was

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Speaker 3: the decade before COVID. So if we want to see

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Speaker 3: better opportunities, increased in a standard of living, we need

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Speaker 3: more growth, and to have more growth, we need more productivity.

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Speaker 1: So if artificial intelligence keeps accelerating at the pace that

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Speaker 1: some people say that it is. Where could the rate

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Speaker 1: of growth go to from this three percent kind of

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Speaker 1: grind that you see for the foreseeable future without it?

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Speaker 2: Well, let me just say the following.

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Speaker 3: We did the paper you mentioned, We did a very

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Speaker 3: interesting analysis on the prerequisites for artificial intelligence to be

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Speaker 3: adopted in a country more effectively. And we came up

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Speaker 3: with four criteria digital infrastructure, human capital and labor market, flexibility,

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Speaker 3: innovation and ethics and governance. And then we ranked all countries,

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Speaker 3: actually one hundred and twenty five countries on the basis

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Speaker 3: of this criteria.

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Speaker 2: Who came on top? Any guesses here? The United States?

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Speaker 2: Number two, China.

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Speaker 3: Well, let me kind of shorten these suspense the Singapore

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Speaker 3: And if you ever have been interacting with, say the

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Speaker 3: Singaporean minister responsible for artificial intelligence, if you have been

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Speaker 3: there in their.

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Speaker 2: Engagements, you would see why.

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Speaker 3: So we have Singapore, the United States, Denmark then a

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Speaker 3: small group and you can go Germany, Australia, UK a.

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Speaker 2: Small group of advanced economies.

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Speaker 3: Here everybody else utterly unprepared for this new world.

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Speaker 1: So here comes a question, especially given the fact that

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Speaker 1: the United States is putting a lot of money into this.

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Speaker 1: China is putting a lot of money into that. They

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Speaker 1: might not have all those prerequisites, but they do have

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Speaker 1: a lot of and the punneling in the development of this.

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Speaker 2: Does that make you a job harder?

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Speaker 1: Because there's almost a new arms race between the most

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Speaker 1: powerful nations that are all member states of the IMF.

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Speaker 3: What is making our job harder are two risks that

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Speaker 3: come with artificial intelligence. One increase of inequality. The world

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Speaker 3: is already so unequal that it impacts the fabric of

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Speaker 3: societies and it's still sobering protests on the streets in

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Speaker 3: lack of trust in governments, and artificial intelligence unless this

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Speaker 3: is attended, is going to deepen inequality.

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Speaker 2: Those workers that would see their jobs in hands, they'll

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Speaker 2: make more money.

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Speaker 3: But those that see their jobs gone, if there is

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Speaker 3: no social safety.

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Speaker 2: Net for them, they're going to be in deep trouble.

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Speaker 3: And then across countries inequality would grow. The second big

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Speaker 3: risk we see from our perspective is on a financial stability.

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Speaker 3: Why we are concerned about that because artificial intelligence can

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Speaker 3: lead to manipulation of data of prospectives for companies and

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Speaker 3: countries in a way that we have not seen so far.

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Speaker 3: So what does it mean, Well, it means that governments

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Speaker 3: have to wake up and take this very seriously. At

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Speaker 3: the moment, I don't think they do. I don't think

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Speaker 3: that they're looking at their level of preparedness seriously and

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Speaker 3: then doing what is necessary to step up, but especially

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Speaker 3: to figure out what do you do, how do you

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Speaker 3: regulate something that changes so rapidly, and how do you

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Speaker 3: regulate it to bring the risks of misinformation disinformation down

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Speaker 3: but grab the productivity benefit.

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Speaker 1: That's why I wanted to go a message from We're

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Speaker 1: having elections in a number of places, including the United States.

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Speaker 1: A big topic of discussion here is the prospect of

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump being president yet again in the United States.

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Speaker 1: He did just win the Iowa caucus in the fastest amount.

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Speaker 2: Of time on record.

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Speaker 1: How does that feature into some of your conversations and

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Speaker 1: how misinformation could play into some of these things.

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Speaker 3: Well, this is actually even higher concern than inequality because

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Speaker 3: it has been expanding very rapidly. And what we now

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Speaker 3: face is a big driver of mistrust comes from all

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Speaker 3: this crap that is being thrown at people that you

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Speaker 3: need to solve. True, So we are benefiting in terms

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Speaker 3: of you have multiple sources of information, but what we

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Speaker 3: are seeing is quite dangerous. And then on top of it,

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Speaker 3: you have cyber security risks. I'm okay, I'm born optimist,

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Speaker 3: so I think we should focus on the opportunities and

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Speaker 3: really rip these opportunities. But the risks are very significant

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Speaker 3: and they're potentially very very severe.

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Speaker 1: Aside from this information, and we're going to get back

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Speaker 1: to this, I do just want to ask you Christin Laguard,

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Speaker 1: your predecessor, was talking about Donald Trump on Thursday and

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Speaker 1: was saying that he is going to be really harmful

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Speaker 1: for Europe if he were to be elected again another.

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Speaker 2: Session of his Do you agree with that?

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Speaker 3: I think it is for the American people to decide

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Speaker 3: who is their president. When they decide, we would see

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Speaker 3: who that is for us. For the fund, what we

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Speaker 3: look at our policies, What are the policies that are

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Speaker 3: going to come, how they would affect the performance of

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Speaker 3: the US economy, how they would affect the performance of

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Speaker 3: the world economy. Uh, and when we look at the

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Speaker 3: likely policies, well, in terms of being more conscious about

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Speaker 3: the integrated global economy and how it benefits people everywhere,

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Speaker 3: there may be some serious concerns.

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Speaker 1: Do you think in general, some other technological advances are

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Speaker 1: sort of fostering some of this populism that we're seeing

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Speaker 1: grow up in a lot of political sectors.

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Speaker 3: Of course, when we first enjoyed social media, it was

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Speaker 3: such a boom. You get information instantaneously, and now we

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Speaker 3: see social media as a plus and a minus.

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Speaker 2: I am.

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Speaker 3: Very conscious of the fact that we have to allow

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Speaker 3: transparency and data to flow. But for God's sake, where

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Speaker 3: it is straight lie, we have to feigure out a

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Speaker 3: way to stop it.

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Speaker 2: And I and I don't don't think this is being.

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Speaker 3: Seriously addressed today, and artificial intelligence is going to make

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Speaker 3: it so much harder. I mean, artificial intelligence can take,

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Speaker 3: say me, create a little speech I give in which

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Speaker 3: I say I hate Bomber Bloomberg with my own voice voice.

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Speaker 2: And then here we go. I never ever all the homework,

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Speaker 2: but I just even minding it. So yes, it is.

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Speaker 2: It is very serious.

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Speaker 3: What we are seeing is there are some attempts to regulate,

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Speaker 3: protect privacy but address this straight lies problem, but so

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Speaker 3: far not so great.

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Speaker 2: To be quite frank.

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Speaker 1: There's a question just in general about some man populism

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Speaker 1: and whether that will help some of the economic projections

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Speaker 1: that you're looking for. Thenk in Argentina as one particular

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Speaker 1: nation that just elected a new president, have your Malay

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Speaker 1: who is thought to be a popular as president. Do

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Speaker 1: you think that his election makes it more or less

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Speaker 1: likely that they're going to repay.

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Speaker 2: You the forty five billion dollars they are you.

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Speaker 3: Okay, so far, so far, so good. They paid. They

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Speaker 3: got into office December eleventh, and they had payment on

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Speaker 3: December twenty first, they made the payment. We actually just

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Speaker 3: completed a staff level agreement because what this administration is

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Speaker 3: doing is to very aggressively address some of the shortcomings

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Speaker 3: we all see in Argentina. Fiscal out of wak you know,

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Speaker 3: spent more than you can afford, reserves wiped out. So

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Speaker 3: we are seeing progress on all these fronts. Of course,

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Speaker 3: what we also care deeply about is that us this administration.

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Speaker 2: Moves with very bolt reforms.

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Speaker 3: There is also protection for the most vulnerable people, and

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Speaker 3: we were very gratified.

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Speaker 2: In the staff level agreement there is specific reference to.

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Speaker 3: How the vulnerable Argentinians and this is forty percent of

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Speaker 3: the population, how they would be helped with child credits,

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Speaker 3: with foot stamps, with more targeted attention to where the

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Speaker 3: vulnerable population.

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Speaker 1: Is one area, perhaps on the other side of the extreme,

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Speaker 1: or maybe actually similar.

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Speaker 2: I'm wondering.

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Speaker 1: China has the biggest allegation here going back to twenty seventeen,

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Speaker 1: which is interesting given the sort of conflicting messages that

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Speaker 1: we've been getting about whether they want international business or

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Speaker 1: whether they don't. What's been a message you've gotten from them.

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Speaker 1: Are they more concerned now about sluggish growth or are

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Speaker 1: they still more concerned about some of the vision Paying's

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Speaker 1: policies and ideologies.

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Speaker 3: I have had a couple of engagements with the Prime Minister,

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Speaker 3: with Privacy le Chant, with the economic team, and what

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Speaker 3: I drew out of it two important messages. Number One,

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Speaker 3: China recognizes that unless they move forward with difficult structural reforms,

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Speaker 3: they will see growth dipping under four percent, and what

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Speaker 3: are these reforms? Opening cup, continuing with opening up state,

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Speaker 3: con the enterprises, addressing the local government that short term,

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Speaker 3: they had the issue of the real estate sector. So

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Speaker 3: that recognition that what has worked for them for forty

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Speaker 3: years is what is the answer to their problems today?

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Speaker 2: Is there?

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Speaker 3: And secondly, a very strong determination to stay engaged internationally.

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Speaker 3: And this is why you see this big plane landing here,

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Speaker 3: they felt a bit the supply chain revamping. They have

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Speaker 3: seen some outflow of capital and they take this seriously.

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Speaker 3: In China, the main objective for the network this year,

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Speaker 3: next year, the year after is to.

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Speaker 2: Shift their growth, first away.

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Speaker 3: From being so much export dependent to more consumption dependent,

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Speaker 3: and second.

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Speaker 2: Emphasize more the quality of growth.

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Speaker 3: At the time when this country is aging, they have

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Speaker 3: a demographic problem.

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Speaker 2: The easy way of growing by.

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Speaker 3: Getting people from rural areas going to urban areas pretty much,

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Speaker 3: if not exhausted, diminished.

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Speaker 2: So they have to they have to come up with

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Speaker 2: more reforms.

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Speaker 3: It's not going to be easy, and it would it

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Speaker 3: would require the country to stay in that lane. So

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Speaker 3: hopefully here we would get a sense how determined they

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Speaker 3: are to stay that lane.

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Speaker 2: We just have a minute left to night. I would

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Speaker 2: be vermiss if I didn't ask you.

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Speaker 1: Just I know you are putting your economic projection in

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Speaker 1: the next month or so. You previously had a two

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Speaker 1: point nine percent growth rate for twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 2: Is it looking higher or lower than that?

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Speaker 3: Let me say twenty three comes better than we expected

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Speaker 3: by a small margin. There is some wind coming from

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Speaker 3: twenty three into twenty four.

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Speaker 2: Stay put. End of January, you will see the.

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Speaker 1: Okay, well, I will just say this is the US

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Speaker 1: still heading soft lending?

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Speaker 2: Is that sill? Yes? Yes, poised for soft lending.

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Speaker 3: Interest rates are probably going to start going down, I

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Speaker 3: think later in the year, but definitely in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 3: The only thing I want to say to everybody here

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Speaker 3: is expect the unexpected. We have learned from the last

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Speaker 3: couple of years that we make all our fancy plans

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Speaker 3: and then both comes to shock exolgant shock and changes

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Speaker 3: this six rate cards for the fact.

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Speaker 2: The fact is.

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Speaker 3: Going to be data depending, but it is true that

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Speaker 3: the world economy, and especially the US economy, has proven

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Speaker 3: to be remarkably resilient.

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Speaker 2: I want to finish where we.

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Speaker 3: Started though on the technological change, because I think we

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Speaker 3: are not yet integrating the speed of this change and

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Speaker 3: how much uncertainty there is of the impact, and we

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Speaker 3: have to focus on that.

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Speaker 2: I'll tell you a story. My granddaughter taught me a lesson.

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Speaker 3: I was telling her as a good grandmother, how when

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Speaker 3: I was her age five, there was no TV, there

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Speaker 3: were no computers. So she looked up at me and said,

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Speaker 3: so you only had iPads.

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Speaker 2: That is the speed of change.

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Speaker 1: It's a medicure game, and thank you so much for

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Speaker 1: being with us today.