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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action awesome.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing in song. I'm saying it's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 2: That we see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 2: they go to wind.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible, big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right.

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Speaker 3: It is the ultimate kabine if you.

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Speaker 1: Want to pull.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 5: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by fan Duel

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Speaker 5: Brendan Glasheen, joined by Brandon Anderson and Jill Gallant. You're

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Speaker 5: listening to our final episode of the twenty twenty two

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Speaker 5: to twenty three NFL season, the Super Bowl fifty seven

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Speaker 5: Recap episode. What a game, so many twists and turns,

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Speaker 5: an excellent night for football fans all together. The Kansas

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Speaker 5: City Super Bowl champions for the second time since twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 5: thirty eight thirty five Chiefs over the Eagles. A lot

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Speaker 5: to unpack from this game, folks. We will dive into

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Speaker 5: all the nitty gritty. We'll take you through the game.

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Speaker 5: Was the MVP call appropriate? What did we hit? What

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Speaker 5: did we miss? We'll get to a season recap as well.

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Speaker 5: What Brandon and Jill learned from this season. Some things

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Speaker 5: they take into next year and going forward, and we'll

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Speaker 5: mix in a hot reed for twenty twenty three twenty

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Speaker 5: twenty four before we say goodbye. So hold the tears back, Vellas,

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Speaker 5: We've got some football to talk about. Then we'll dive

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Speaker 5: into all the nitty gritty of our emotions. We will

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Speaker 5: start with Brandon Anderson. So as I said, Chiefs win

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Speaker 5: thirty eight thirty five. They cover as a dog. Patrick

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Speaker 5: Mahomes now seven and three straight up as an underdog

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Speaker 5: eight one and one against the number, and the over

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Speaker 5: hits handedly.

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Speaker 2: In this game.

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Speaker 5: If you took some live overs, I'm sure you're feeling

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Speaker 5: pretty good about yourself this morning.

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Speaker 1: Brandon.

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Speaker 5: Let's just jump in with a quick opening thought on

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Speaker 5: how this game unfolded.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I was trying to think of the right analogy,

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Speaker 3: and I gotta steal Nate Tice's analogy that I saw

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Speaker 3: on Twitter. I felt like this game was the entirety

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Speaker 3: of Game of Thrones. We had big characters, we had

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Speaker 3: epic battle scenes, these great scenes, memorable, all sorts of

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Speaker 3: good stuff, and then the ending. And then the ending

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Speaker 3: is like the only thing you talk about, and it's like,

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Speaker 3: oh man, the ending has spoiled the entire experience, and

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Speaker 3: I really I wanted to just kind of step back

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Speaker 3: and be like, now, this was a great game between

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Speaker 3: the two best teams in football. We got the best

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Speaker 3: of both of these offenses for most of the game.

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Speaker 3: We had great plays. Both quarterbacks made awesome plays throughout.

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Speaker 3: We had lots of fun, cool coaching stuff in this game.

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Speaker 3: And then the Chiefs won. You know that they finished

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Speaker 3: the job. Patrick Mahomes got the job done. Here. I

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Speaker 3: am Brandon Anderson. I bet against Patrick Mahomes and lost

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Speaker 3: and lived to tell about it. But yeah, it is

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Speaker 3: a great game. We'll have a lot of fun talking

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Speaker 3: about it. And I kept thinking as we were going

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Speaker 3: toward the end here, I was like, man, I wish

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Speaker 3: we had like best of seven, Like can we just

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Speaker 3: keep watching these teams play again? That would have been

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Speaker 3: fun to see how they ad justin go from there.

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Speaker 3: But just great football.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Jill, the build up, I was ready for this

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Speaker 5: thing to happen, right, we were just ready for kickoff.

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Speaker 1: You're really beaten. You're beating a dead drum.

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Speaker 5: As far as just dissecting the game, picking it apart,

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Speaker 5: who's healthy, who isn't, who's available, who isn't And then

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Speaker 5: you finally, to Brandon's point, it happens, and you're looking

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Speaker 5: for more. Still, that's what we like to do when

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Speaker 5: it comes to football. We just want we just want more.

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Speaker 5: I saw Stucky tweet this morning. You know there should

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Speaker 5: be a college football bowl game on Monday. You know

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Speaker 5: that's what we deserve here at this stage. But Jill,

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Speaker 5: what you make of the night?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean the first quarter, I mean you could

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Speaker 4: argue was one of the best first quarters in Super

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Speaker 4: Bowl history, just the way that the back and forth,

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Speaker 4: the way that they were moving the ball on each other.

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Speaker 4: Game will touchdown better got a little bit robbed there

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Speaker 4: in the first quarter with Jalen Hurts then sneaking it

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Speaker 4: in right after, and I mean the first play of

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Speaker 4: the second quarter was that long bomb to aj Brown

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Speaker 4: for a second touchdown for the Eagles to bring it

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Speaker 4: to fourteen to seven. So it was just a lot

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Speaker 4: of action right off. The hop worked out well in

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Speaker 4: my favor because I had first Chiefs touchdown to be

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Speaker 4: Travis Kelcey at plus three thirty. Gave that out on

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Speaker 4: the Best Bets pod that hits, so I'm feeling over

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Speaker 4: the moon. And then the aj Brown touchdown happens, and

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Speaker 4: I'm just walking around my living room and being like,

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Speaker 4: this game is fucking awesome. Well, you know, just like

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Speaker 4: a classic casual fan, right, So yeah, just one of

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Speaker 4: those games that obviously the ending is going to be

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Speaker 4: the most of what we talked about. But I think

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Speaker 4: the biggest takeaway is that it's just difficult to defend

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Speaker 4: a generational quarterback like Patrick Mahomes for a full four quarters.

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Speaker 5: So let's talk about the first half. Those first two

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Speaker 5: drives I think encapsulate the two teams. Eagles thirteen play drive,

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Speaker 5: churning out the clock, seventy five yards, almost five minutes

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Speaker 5: of time. Kansas City comes right back, some big plays

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Speaker 5: by the quarterback before he got hobbled. We'll get to

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Speaker 5: that in just three minutes, the Chiefs answer, and you

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Speaker 5: got the feeling like, oh, we're in We're in for

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Speaker 5: a classic, We're in for a shootout, Brandon. When you

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Speaker 5: look at the first half, Eagles up twenty four to

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Speaker 5: fourteen at the end of thirty minutes, just dominating time

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Speaker 5: of possession. We'll get to that too, And that's kind

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Speaker 5: of what they've done all year, matter who the opposition was.

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Speaker 5: Make of what you will of their schedule and who

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Speaker 5: their opponents were and who the quarterbacks were. But that

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Speaker 5: was the Eagles were ready for the test. But then

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Speaker 5: Kansas City catches a break and they get a defensive

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Speaker 5: touchdown thanks to really really they're all errors are costly,

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Speaker 5: but one that resulted in seven for the Chiefs defense.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, obviously that for as great as the

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Speaker 3: Eagles were in the first half, that defensive touchdown was

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Speaker 3: the key play of the game if you had to

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Speaker 3: just pick one from a lot of big plays. So

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Speaker 3: the play that's a little bit overlooked. So right before that,

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Speaker 3: Eagles are on second and one, they get stuffed Kenneth gainwell,

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Speaker 3: so third in one they line up for that unstoppable sneak,

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Speaker 3: and I thought that push sneak kind of became sneakily

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Speaker 3: a story I lose, a story of the season for

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Speaker 3: the Eagles and the story of the game here. By

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Speaker 3: my count the times that they were able to run

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Speaker 3: that sneak or line up to run it, the Eagles

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Speaker 3: were seven of eight. They converted it six times, they

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Speaker 3: had a penalty that they drew on time. However, the

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Speaker 3: one that they missed is the play before the defensive

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Speaker 3: touchdown where they lined up and then they got called

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Speaker 3: correctly I think for a false start. They showed the

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Speaker 3: close up. I think Somalo was got a false start there.

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Speaker 3: But that is the play that went from third and short,

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Speaker 3: an unstoppable, guaranteed first down that they got the whole

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Speaker 3: rest of the game. And the next play it's third

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Speaker 3: and long. Jalen Hurts tries to keep get stripped. Didn't

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Speaker 3: really do that the entire season. Eagles never turned it over.

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Speaker 3: They had great ball security all year and then bam

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Speaker 3: Nick Botens and the end zone were fourteen to fourteen,

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Speaker 3: and look if not for that, it's twenty four to

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Speaker 3: seven at the half. The Eagles had twenty series and

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Speaker 3: turned seventeen of them into first downs. Patrick Mahomes was

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Speaker 3: on the field less than Rihanna in the first half,

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Speaker 3: basically like it was just domination otherwise, but that one

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Speaker 3: defensive score minus eight and a half EPA points, so

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Speaker 3: eight and a half expected points toward the Chiefs, not

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Speaker 3: just the touchdown. But remember the Eagles are out by

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Speaker 3: the fifty, they're gonna score because they scored on nearly

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Speaker 3: ever drive this game, So that took points away from

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Speaker 3: the Eagles and put them on the scoreboard. For the Chiefs,

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Speaker 3: we've talked about the defensive touchdown. I had Philadelphia as

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Speaker 3: best bet. Didn't hit that one. At FanDuel. It was

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Speaker 3: just plus three hundred for any defensive touchdown. So hopefully

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Speaker 3: you got that one. Sixteen defensive scores now in the

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Speaker 3: last thirty one Super Bowls, which is just a wild

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Speaker 3: number and importantly twenty one out of twenty two all

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Speaker 3: time defensive Super Bowl scorers by the winning team. So

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs did get keep that one alive.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, looking back, you just mapped it out before the

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Speaker 5: defensive score. When I do applod Siriani, that staff as

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Speaker 5: well as Jalen Hurts and that offense that they do

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Speaker 5: play with urgency no matter the score. They understand being

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Speaker 5: up just a touchdown that in a way makes the

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Speaker 5: Kansas City Chiefs dangerous that they were playing. The Eagles

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Speaker 5: played the whole night as if they were trailing, and

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Speaker 5: they think that speaks to well, they haven't been in

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Speaker 5: many of these spots this year where they've trailed, but

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Speaker 5: they play like their.

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Speaker 1: Trailing with some of their play calls.

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Speaker 5: The play moves to third and five and then you

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Speaker 5: get the defensive score, Jill, and the minute that happens,

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Speaker 5: I think, oh, like the Eagles still playing with that mentality.

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Speaker 1: It bit them.

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Speaker 5: And granted it's a fluky play, I think because Hurts

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Speaker 5: generally speaking has been pretty great with ball control and

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Speaker 5: valuing the football.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: And the one thing I was going to say too

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Speaker 4: Brandan about that, and I'm not sure how much it

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Speaker 4: played a part, but the field conditions in this game

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Speaker 4: were just horrible, like nobody could get proper footing. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: and from an Eagles defense standpoint, it really put them

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Speaker 4: on their back foot because again sorry for the pun there,

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Speaker 4: but again Mahomes getting it out quickly. But they had

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Speaker 4: no sacks on Patrick Mahomes the entire game that was

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Speaker 4: the book is that this defense is historic. You know,

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Speaker 4: there eighty five bears type of sacks numbers kind of thing,

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Speaker 4: and they couldn't really get to him. They didn't really

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Speaker 4: get much pressure on him at all to really affect him.

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Speaker 4: But on the flip side, it actually was very much

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Speaker 4: aiding Eagles props, Like anybody who was betting an over

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Speaker 4: on an Eagles prop, whether it be was Jalen Hurts

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Speaker 4: rushing yards all three receivers. Both aj Brown, Devonte Smith

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Speaker 4: and Dallas article over their receiving yard props. Can't have

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Speaker 4: gain Wells having a game. You know, he's getting over

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Speaker 4: his rushing air prop and receiving air prop. I think

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Speaker 4: the only guy that was completely fell short and was

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Speaker 4: actually I think went to the locker room with a

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Speaker 4: little bit of an injury was Miles And so outside

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Speaker 4: of that, if you're an Eagles better you were feeling

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Speaker 4: pretty good going into halftime because you felt like, Okay, we're.

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Speaker 2: Up by ten, where I'm hitting all of.

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Speaker 4: My props, and I know there was a ton of

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Speaker 4: people out there in social media that I saw that

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Speaker 4: was basically just going all in on Eagle sides and

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Speaker 4: props on that nature. So they're walking into halftime feeling

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Speaker 4: pretty good. But then, especially with the fact that Mahomes

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Speaker 4: his ankle injury again flares up, you think, okay, we're

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Speaker 4: going to see a repeat of the second half of

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Speaker 4: the way he looked against the Jaguars. No, he comes

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Speaker 4: out and you could argue that Tour It All Now

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Speaker 4: is probably the MVP of this game. And you could

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Speaker 4: even argue as well that stock prices of Tour It

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Speaker 4: All have probably gone up because just the mere mention

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Speaker 4: of being used over the last three weeks, Like I

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Speaker 4: could argue that that tour it All has been used

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Speaker 4: on broadcasts more in the last three weeks than it

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Speaker 4: probably was used the entire season.

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Speaker 5: Did you guys catch so going into the second half,

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Speaker 5: right before the half started, did you guys catch Aaron

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Speaker 5: Andrews say that the Chiefs do not make Andy Reid

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Speaker 5: available when the Chiefs are trailing at halftime. I found

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Speaker 5: that very interestingly. Oh fitting that.

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Speaker 1: When the quarterback got hurt.

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Speaker 5: That the coach couldn't weigh in because the team was

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Speaker 5: losing by ten. I just thought that was interesting because, well,

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Speaker 5: that's part of the story though, is the quarterback healthy?

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Speaker 5: So Aaron Andrews did not get access to Andy Reid

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Speaker 5: at halftime to give the people an understanding as to

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Speaker 5: what the plan might be a quarterback if it's going

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Speaker 5: to be Chad Henny, will Mahomes return? As we know

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Speaker 5: Mahomes did go back out there. I just thought that

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Speaker 5: was an interesting note. Oh, well, it's because they're losing.

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Speaker 5: This is normal Chiefs protocol at halftime that when they

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Speaker 5: don't have when they don't have a lead, the coach

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Speaker 5: is not available, felt very bella check in.

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Speaker 4: Chad Henny just retired too, retiring as a champion.

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Speaker 1: I saw that.

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Speaker 5: I saw that, Hey, he made plenty of big plays

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Speaker 5: in their runs before when he had to sub in,

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Speaker 5: when the helmet comes off and he makes that play

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Speaker 5: to I think it was Tyreek kill a couple of

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Speaker 5: years ago.

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Speaker 4: He threw that touchdown to Travis Kelsey to kind of

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Speaker 4: just this yeah, so well, yea, And he was very

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Speaker 4: vital for them.

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Speaker 3: I think to the length of the halftime show weirdly

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Speaker 3: ended up being a factor here because see a little

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Speaker 3: more time for Mahomes to get that ankle right, you know.

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Speaker 3: I'm sure they did a little work there. And I

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Speaker 3: thought the difference in Chiefs coaching in particular was massive

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Speaker 3: from first half to second half. Some of the adjustments

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Speaker 3: that they made and some of the play calls that

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Speaker 3: they brought out in the second half, kind of seeing, okay,

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Speaker 3: here's some tendency as we found it, and that is

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Speaker 3: the thing the Eagles coaching had been great at all season.

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Speaker 3: I thought, Nick to Ranny and the Eagles coaching, I know,

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Speaker 3: it's all over the place, masterclass for the first two

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Speaker 3: and a half to three quarters. You mentioned that the

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Speaker 3: Eagles played with urgency. Yes, so no, they played like

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Speaker 3: the team that had to put up points. But from

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Speaker 3: the start I noticed they milked that clock down. They

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Speaker 3: were running the play clock. Everyone down to like, oh,

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Speaker 3: it's gonna be delayed game. Nope, they got off. But

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Speaker 3: I think that was a plan from the start. It

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Speaker 3: just shortened the game. No plays for Pat Mahomes guys,

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Speaker 3: just keep them over there, just keep running the clock.

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Speaker 3: And they did a great job multiple times until the

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Speaker 3: one that really mattered. They didn't call the time out

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Speaker 3: to stop a delay of game. They would not burn

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Speaker 3: those timeouts because Syrianni new homeportant. They were just lots

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Speaker 3: of those little edges. Obviously, the fourth down aggressions and

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Speaker 3: the plays to set up the fourth down. Those are

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Speaker 3: the things, like those little two percent edges that just

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Speaker 3: kept adding up ballgame. And I thought that that was

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Speaker 3: the story. The Nick Siriandy masterclass coaching against Andy Reid

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Speaker 3: and then the long halftime, I think switch that around

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Speaker 3: a little bit. It's interesting too. I noticed this on

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Speaker 3: Twitter at the beginning of the half. I saw the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs heading in the halftime. It was plus three seventy

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Speaker 3: on the money line, no snaps, nothing happened, and by

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Speaker 3: the time that we took the next snap, that had

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Speaker 3: dropped down a plus two to eighty. So I bought

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Speaker 3: a little Patrick Holmes insurance at halftime. Hopefully you saw

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Speaker 3: that on the app where on Twitter able to follow

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Speaker 3: just a little bit. It's still Pat, you know. I

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Speaker 3: had the Eagles cap. I was on them, but it's Pat.

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Speaker 3: You never know. And then we come out and right

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Speaker 3: away things looked different. We knew the Chiefs would get

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Speaker 3: the ball out of the half. They come down and

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Speaker 3: get the touchdown right away, and then the Eagles had

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Speaker 3: seventeen play drive, the longest drive by plays in Super

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Speaker 3: Bowl history. And at that point I think that's in

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Speaker 3: the broadcast, literally double as many plays as the Chiefs had,

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Speaker 3: and you should be up a lot, but they settled

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Speaker 3: for the field goal just before the half. I thought

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Speaker 3: they a little bit settled for the field goal, that

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Speaker 3: they could have maybe run another player too after the

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Speaker 3: big aj Brown catch, And that was toward the end.

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Speaker 3: All the good things Sirianni did this game and had

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Speaker 3: been doing all season, all that aggression, it's like he

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Speaker 3: got a little bit of cold feet maybe a couple

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Speaker 3: of times they called the time out before that field

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Speaker 3: goal third and eleven. They kept to third and eleven,

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Speaker 3: then dump it off to Kenneth Gainwell, that is not

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Speaker 3: the aggressive sort of play they were doing. And then

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Speaker 3: and they get the field goal. But the field goal,

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Speaker 3: that's a victory for the Chiefs there that sometime about

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Speaker 3: when the Chiefs go up twenty seven or sorry, yeah,

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Speaker 3: the Eagles go up twenty seven to twenty one at

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Speaker 3: that point as much as the Eagles that dominated and

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Speaker 3: I just run the clock so long. The Chiefs defense

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Speaker 3: is just dashed and been on the field the whole game.

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Speaker 3: I was like, I go twenty seven to twenty one,

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Speaker 3: and here's Pat there he comes on the other side.

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Speaker 3: And sure enough, after that field goal decision, the Eagles

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Speaker 3: had only eleven more plays the whole rest of the

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Speaker 3: game that they even saw the field offensively.

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Speaker 5: Just just to backtrack for a minute too, and I

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Speaker 5: know bet what happens live.

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Speaker 1: Jill was with Nick Giffin.

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Speaker 5: I thought Pachecko the pchecko call was phenomenal, and that

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Speaker 5: seven yard run to start that third quarter drive was massive.

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Speaker 5: I know a lot of folks at Action were on

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Speaker 5: the under longest rush for Jerick McKinnon.

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Speaker 1: That broke my heart.

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Speaker 5: Fourteen yards Jerrick McKinnon really of all people on a

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Speaker 5: third and one, So the way they they ran the

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Speaker 5: ball really well, I Thoughtansas City Andy Reid had discipline.

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Speaker 5: We're going to still run the ball. We got to

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Speaker 5: ease pat back in here. Despite to Brandon's point, having

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Speaker 5: that extra time with the halftime show to get Mahomes ready.

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Speaker 1: I thought that was crucial. As we know.

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Speaker 5: On the touchdown drive following by Philadelphia, the controversial was

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Speaker 5: it a fumble or was it a catch or was

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Speaker 5: it an incomplete pass? Which or catch then fumble or

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Speaker 5: an incomplete pass. They end up ruling an incomplete pass

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Speaker 5: that could have swayed the game as we talked about

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Speaker 5: early on, possibly not one but two defensive touchdowns not

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Speaker 5: the case, and then kind of speeding back up to

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Speaker 5: where Brandon just left us. The field goal by Philadelphia

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Speaker 5: later in that third quarter ended up being massive for

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Speaker 5: the Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: Because then they come back down and score. And Kidarius Tony.

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Speaker 5: Was also missing in this game as a receiver, but

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Speaker 5: whoa he made his presence felt on the sixty five

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Speaker 5: yard punt return to set up another Kansas City touchdown

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Speaker 5: early on in the fourth quarter, or at least right

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Speaker 5: after the touchdown by the Chiefs in the fourth Eagles

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Speaker 5: punt and then of course the return sets up an

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Speaker 5: easy score.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so that was that was huge.

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Speaker 5: And then oh my goodness, the Chiefs the defense there

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Speaker 5: was no defense on DeVante Smith Jill, which then set

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Speaker 5: up another score by the goal line for Jalen Hurts.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I know a lot of guys who had DeVante Smith

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Speaker 4: anytime touchdown and were pissed that he did not calculate

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Speaker 4: kind of where he was on the field, because that's

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Speaker 4: usually his bread and butter is that he is very

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Speaker 4: aware where he is on the field and body control

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Speaker 4: and he goes out at the four yard line, Jalen

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Speaker 4: Hurts gets the octopus rushes for a touchdown and the.

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Speaker 2: Two point conversion.

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Speaker 4: I wanted to actually bring this down to a little

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Speaker 4: bit more of a macro level instead of looking at

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Speaker 4: Sirianni versus Reed. I thought it was more of a

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Speaker 4: masterclass of the enemy versus Gannon because Gannon the defensive

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Speaker 4: coordinator for the Eagles. He was playing zone defense against

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Speaker 4: this team the entire time, and they were just eating it. Up,

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Speaker 4: especially in the second half, and when they got to

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Speaker 4: the goal line, it was almost like they didn't know

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Speaker 4: what to do because sky Moore and Kadarius Tony both

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Speaker 4: score on wide open touchdowns the same way too, because

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Speaker 4: what they would do is they would run in towards

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Speaker 4: the line and the secondary would catch up on them

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Speaker 4: and then they would break out. And it was like

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Speaker 4: both times they were wide open on that, which kind

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Speaker 4: of is a little foreshadowing to what happened to the

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Speaker 4: end of the game there. We could talk about that

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Speaker 4: a little bit more between Brad Berry and Juju Smith Schuster.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, the one thing I was gonna say about

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Speaker 4: Tony is it was the full Kadarius Tony experience. He

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Speaker 4: drops the third down conversion, he only gets one catch,

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Speaker 4: but it's the catch for a five yard touchdown, and

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Speaker 4: then he has the longest punt returned Super Bowl history. Again,

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Speaker 4: it was just the full Kadarius Tony experience. If you're

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Speaker 4: a better but we would think, well, the biggest touchdown

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Speaker 4: odds that was hitting in this game was the case defense. Actually, no,

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Speaker 4: sky Moore when he scored that touchdown, he was actually

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Speaker 4: at eleven to one to score a touchdown and coming

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Speaker 4: into the game, he was talking about how he was

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Speaker 4: going to probably be used sparingly, you know, the fact

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Speaker 4: that both Juju and Cadarius Tony are going to be playing,

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Speaker 4: and he catches what is probably is the game winning

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Speaker 4: touchdown in a sense, right, So that was probably one

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Speaker 4: of the biggest things that I just found from a

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Speaker 4: takeaway standpoint is that Gannon, who is being considered for

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Speaker 4: some head coaching jobs, I'm not sure if he's going

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Speaker 4: to still be in that position going forward because Andy

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Speaker 4: Reid and the enemy and the entire coaching staff just

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Speaker 4: did a number on them in the second half where

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Speaker 4: the Eagles did not know what to do.

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Speaker 1: Now is sky Moore's first touchdown of the season.

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Speaker 3: It was career right, a rookie. Yeah, good time for it. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I want to jump in on that. That to me,

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Speaker 3: the sequence I want to skim quite past it before

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Speaker 3: the Eagles got their last touchdown there. To me, that

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Speaker 3: sequence right before that, the punt return, the touchdown, and

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Speaker 3: the drive before, to me, that's the key sequence of

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Speaker 3: this game. So just a couple of things to point out.

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Speaker 3: I want to talk about that Cardarius Tony play as well.

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Speaker 3: So Eagles have third down. They called a third and two.

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Speaker 3: On screen, it looked like third and three. They're on

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Speaker 3: the thirty two yard line. And again the whole game,

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Speaker 3: the Eagles there, they're down, they're down a point at

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Speaker 3: this point, and they're they're backed up a little bit

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Speaker 3: the whole game, they're just moving the chains. Just third

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Speaker 3: and three. Just run the ball. You know that if

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Speaker 3: you can get two yards, it's a first down because

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Speaker 3: fourth and one you're unstoppable. You've never stopped the Hurtz

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Speaker 3: push sneak all game, and instead, I thought they got

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Speaker 3: a little too creative with play calling. Offensively, They try

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Speaker 3: to do a little pass and then Swags dialed up

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Speaker 3: the pressure and Hurts kept kept doing like the spinning

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Speaker 3: left to get out of pressure. He is useless, spinning

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Speaker 3: left like the play is dead. He can't throw across

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Speaker 3: his body or do some of the stuff that Mahomes

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Speaker 3: or others can. So I thought that was a bad

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Speaker 3: play call. Now it's fourth down in a long two

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Speaker 3: or three on their own thirty two. But Siriani, I

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Speaker 3: think goes for that. If it's the first quarter, I

437
00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:58,520
Speaker 3: think he goes for that. If it's the regular season,

438
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:00,199
Speaker 3: I know he goes for it. We saw him go

439
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:03,719
Speaker 3: for it around there against the Niners first drive last week.

440
00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:06,040
Speaker 3: I thought it was a poor decision to just punt

441
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:10,040
Speaker 3: the ball away and then, yeah, bad punt. The stocky

442
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 3: covered special teams will last for us. The punter was

443
00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:16,000
Speaker 3: a big difference in this game. The Eagles literally activated

444
00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,360
Speaker 3: their punter just before the game. Chiefs are the best

445
00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 3: punter in football. So we get a bad low punt.

446
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:23,160
Speaker 3: Low punt means the coverage can't get down the field

447
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,160
Speaker 3: in time, and Cadarius had a great return, like he

448
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,359
Speaker 3: had to kind of squeeze around from the left and

449
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:31,240
Speaker 3: get back over to where his blockers all where and

450
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 3: has the great return down there. Then Chiefs are at

451
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:38,119
Speaker 3: the five, but it gets the third down and I'm thinking, okay,

452
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:40,719
Speaker 3: he goes one stop here, one stop because you know,

453
00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,040
Speaker 3: Siriannie probably would have gone for it there. But Andy's

454
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 3: gonna set out for the field goal. We've seen him

455
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:48,439
Speaker 3: do that a lot of times, thinking one stop, and

456
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 3: that's that touchdown now to Cadarius or sorry, that one's

457
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,159
Speaker 3: I think that's is that sky Moore caderous.

458
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 2: The touchdown after the Tony returns.

459
00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:58,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, so that plays Joe. You mentioned that they basically

460
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 3: look the same that the same play, that's the identical

461
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:05,359
Speaker 3: play flipped when it's sky on the next one and

462
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:07,199
Speaker 3: was so cool And this is where Andy Reid I

463
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:11,160
Speaker 3: thought and bi enemy were incredible that play. That play

464
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 3: was run against the Eagles by the Jaguars back in

465
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:18,639
Speaker 3: week three by Doug Peterson. They put a guy in

466
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 3: motion in and then out and saw that the Eagles

467
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:23,680
Speaker 3: didn't flip their coverage to get to that guy and

468
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 3: the Jags got an easy walk in touchdown week three.

469
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,439
Speaker 3: The Chiefs basically didn't run that the whole year and

470
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,200
Speaker 3: saved it for that moment and then saw it work

471
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:35,399
Speaker 3: so well that they ran it for another touchdown and

472
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:39,439
Speaker 3: another key third down and ran it for essentially the

473
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 3: winning play. On the third down, they do the penalty

474
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:45,119
Speaker 3: by running it a third time but flipping it and

475
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,359
Speaker 3: having the receiver go back out for the penalty. So

476
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 3: that was a huge, just incredible play. The other one

477
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 3: too for Andy Reid late in the game, the Mahomes

478
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 3: had the long scramble that got them down in the

479
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,479
Speaker 3: field goal range right before that another third and one.

480
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 3: The Chiefs not been good and third and short all

481
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,879
Speaker 3: year because they run the ball well, and the Chiefs

482
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 3: on that play ran Pacheco for like a ten yard

483
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 3: kind of sweep out to the left. And that play

484
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,120
Speaker 3: that they had, they put Burton on the field, their

485
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 3: full back who basically never plays for them like seven

486
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:19,239
Speaker 3: percent snap rate. That play is directly a play that

487
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 3: the Lions ran Week one against the Eagles, and the

488
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 3: Chiefs saw that play kept it in their back pocket

489
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 3: in case we might need it sometime the whole season,

490
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,120
Speaker 3: and then with the season on the line, third down

491
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,719
Speaker 3: and one, Andy Reid pulls out. They basically the Eagles

492
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 3: can't be prepared for that. The Chiefs haven't run it

493
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:40,399
Speaker 3: all year. They held these plays back the entire season,

494
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,639
Speaker 3: and like as much as I had all my Syriani

495
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 3: masterclass notes, and I thought the in game coaching edge

496
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:50,480
Speaker 3: would really go to Philly and Andy Reid and Biene me.

497
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 3: They made meet my words, I don't even know. I

498
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 3: wouldn't even say negatives about Gannon, like the zone D

499
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:58,160
Speaker 3: didn't stop it. But I thought this was just good

500
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 3: offense wins and they had their right play calls and

501
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 3: those that sequence. For me, I would have rather Andy

502
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:07,879
Speaker 3: gon for two for the nine point lead there but

503
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:09,679
Speaker 3: that sequence changed everything for me.

504
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 4: That was what I was going to ask you, Brandon,

505
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 4: is that we could praise Red and be enemy with

506
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 4: the way that they were playing in the second half,

507
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:19,440
Speaker 4: but not going for that two point conversion that could

508
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 4: have really came back to cost them. And luckily, you know,

509
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,480
Speaker 4: they were able to convert on the octopus with Jalen

510
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 4: Hurts the next way down. But there is a real

511
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 4: possibility that people were talking about if he had not

512
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 4: converted a two point and they only had a seven

513
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,360
Speaker 4: point lead, that Syriati might have went for two anyway

514
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 4: on that next touchdown drive just because of how aggressive

515
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 4: he is.

516
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 2: Now.

517
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,400
Speaker 4: I didn't necessarily agree with that because the guy, again,

518
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 4: it's a Super Bowl, I want to be aggressive, but

519
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:42,880
Speaker 4: at the same time, what's not go nuts? But there's

520
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 4: real possibility that Red could have put himself in a

521
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:48,080
Speaker 4: more vulnerable standpoint there. So I think that's the only

522
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 4: thing that I would say is I understand why Reid

523
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,160
Speaker 4: did take the extra point instead of the two point,

524
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:56,240
Speaker 4: but man, in the moment.

525
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:57,879
Speaker 2: You were like, what are you doing? Like you know?

526
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:00,520
Speaker 4: So, yeah, that was my biggest takeaway from that too

527
00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:01,920
Speaker 4: from a coaching staff standpoint.

528
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,160
Speaker 5: I'm glad I'm out alone on that because I'm yelling

529
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 5: at the TV, go for two. Make this a nine

530
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 5: point game, make it a two score game, so it

531
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 5: doesn't play out. But to Andy Reid's credit, he gets

532
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 5: a lot of crap for not handling the clock well.

533
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:17,440
Speaker 1: And I thought, I know the officials were part.

534
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:18,679
Speaker 5: Of this at the end. We'll get to that. They

535
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 5: were part of the game the whole game, so let's

536
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 5: be fair. As Brandon said, it's easy to pick apart

537
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 5: the end, they were a factor. We mapped out some

538
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,919
Speaker 5: of those plays earlier in the game, the officials, the

539
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:31,479
Speaker 5: non DeVante Smith catch, the Miles Sanders like I brought up,

540
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 5: was it a catch and fumble or was it an

541
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:37,359
Speaker 5: incomplete pass? Incomplete pass which helped the Eagles, by the way,

542
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 5: and then the play at the end, the hold on

543
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 5: Juju Smith Schuster, which I'm blanking on who got called

544
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:48,199
Speaker 5: for holding but the player admitted, he admitted after the

545
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 5: game that he held them.

546
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:51,400
Speaker 4: I got to think the biggest takeaway from this game

547
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:53,720
Speaker 4: was that defensive penalty at the end. That is really

548
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 4: what everybody's going to talk about in this game. We

549
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 4: could talk about how awesome ma Holmes was how awesome

550
00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:02,360
Speaker 4: Jalen Hurts was. Unfortunately the ending, even if we may

551
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 4: disagree on kind of what happened and all that stuff,

552
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 4: I think that is going to be the takeaway outside

553
00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 4: of the fourth down conversion the Eagles play that they run,

554
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 4: if whether or not that is going to be allowed

555
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:18,400
Speaker 4: in football games going forward because of potential injury risk

556
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:20,199
Speaker 4: and just the edge that it gives, Like you know,

557
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 4: a lot of the time, they got to give the

558
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 4: defensive side at least some ability to be able to

559
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 4: defend the ball, and that's nearly an unstoppable play. So

560
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:30,439
Speaker 4: I'm wondering if those two things that'll be the biggest

561
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 4: takeaways from this game is outlawing that play and maybe

562
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,639
Speaker 4: even potentially outlining that defense, that penal what you.

563
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:38,920
Speaker 5: Call You got a thought on that, Brandon, as far

564
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 5: as the final drive, what's set up the win?

565
00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:41,920
Speaker 1: And then I mean, I know you had some thoughts

566
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 1: there are still on the Chiefs.

567
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 5: You had said coming out of the halftime, out of

568
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 5: the halftime show that you thought the way the Chiefs

569
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 5: kind of dissected what occurred, they you felt they learned

570
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:57,240
Speaker 5: something from the first half and how they came out

571
00:26:57,240 --> 00:26:58,920
Speaker 5: and then of course the penalty helps.

572
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:00,280
Speaker 1: They were already in field goal range.

573
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 5: I would add before that, but take us through the

574
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 5: final drive before we Yeah.

575
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:09,360
Speaker 3: So second half the Chiefs had the ball for four drives.

576
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 3: They scored twenty four points and it was only not

577
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 3: twenty eight because Jack McKinnon decided it wasn't twenty eight

578
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 3: and then slid down there. The Chiefs had two hundred

579
00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:20,880
Speaker 3: and thirty possible yards to gain from when they got

580
00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 3: the ball in the second half. They gained all of them.

581
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 3: They got them all. The only one they ended up

582
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 3: with two twenty one because they got two twenty to

583
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:29,639
Speaker 3: nine and then knelt a couple times back at the

584
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 3: end right.

585
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:31,679
Speaker 1: So minus seven total.

586
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 5: Mahomes back five and back two on the kneel downs.

587
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 3: Yep, and they averaged almost seven yards of play the

588
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:43,600
Speaker 3: Chiefs the entire second half. Patrick mahomes last play the

589
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 3: first half comes up limping that third down and long,

590
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 3: he kind of scrambles, he takes the hit and we're

591
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 3: all wondering what happened. Well, what happened is thirteen or

592
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 3: fourteen in the second half. The one in completion was

593
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:58,879
Speaker 3: a throwaway, so on purpose he had two touchdowns in

594
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,919
Speaker 3: point sixty five epa per play, which is just an outrageous,

595
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 3: high absurd number. So that's the Chiefs the second half.

596
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:10,680
Speaker 3: No penalties, no turnovers, no punts, no sacks, no sacks

597
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 3: the entire game. So Mahomes comes down. I mentioned that

598
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 3: Pacheco third down and one run that was huge up

599
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,159
Speaker 3: until that play. The Eagles get a stop there. I

600
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 3: think they're the favorite team because you get the ball back,

601
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 3: and it's not like the Chiefs defense really won the

602
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 3: game here. Chiefs defense came up big on like two

603
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:32,120
Speaker 3: or three huge plays, and otherwise the Eagles were pretty

604
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:35,639
Speaker 3: much moving the ball whenever they needed to. Even the

605
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 3: only thing we stopped Eagles offense was that time ran

606
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,280
Speaker 3: out and that there were a couple key penalties that

607
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 3: were right and the one fumble. So other than that,

608
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 3: the Eagles were doing what they needed too. So Pa

609
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaker 3: Checko gets the run and then I'm so upset about

610
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 3: the penalty, not about the penalty itself, but because right

611
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 3: before that, Patrick Mahomes has this like all time Pa

612
00:28:55,920 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 3: Mahomes moment on a bad ankle remassing run up the middle,

613
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 3: scrambles for twenty six yards. The Eagles scrambled defense was

614
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 3: a talking point that was it was a big thing.

615
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:11,719
Speaker 3: So Mahomes twenty six yards basically what ended up being

616
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 3: kind of the clinching play. So after that third down,

617
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 3: Eagles need to get off for the penalty. But at

618
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 3: the Mahomes run, it's first and ten on the seventeen.

619
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 3: The moment he goes down, there's two forty six left.

620
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 3: This is where I thought, Sirianni screwed up a little

621
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 3: bit again. The coaching staff, you had called time out

622
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 3: right away, two forty six. Let it take all the

623
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 3: way down there, almost the two minute warning. You're down

624
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,280
Speaker 3: only two timeouts. They burned one earlier and that ended

625
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 3: up being huge. Here they called time out and at.

626
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 1: That moment, real quick, real quick, was the one he burned.

627
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 1: A challenge was the challenge on Smith.

628
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 3: No, that was a red challenge. So that was the

629
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 3: one that he burned. Was in the third quarter, the

630
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 3: play before the field goal and the seventeen play drive.

631
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 3: I mentioned earlier that they had consistently not called timeouts

632
00:29:57,880 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 3: to save the delay game. They purposely would take the

633
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 3: five yards third and eleven. They called the time out

634
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:05,280
Speaker 3: right and then did a dump off, played the game, Well,

635
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 3: that didn't do much anyway, So that's the one that

636
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 3: felt like the one burntime out, the thing that hadn't

637
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 3: done all year really, So on the play to Juju,

638
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 3: here's what I think. On the one hand, I think

639
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 3: the conversation is overblown. The call was questionable. I don't

640
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 3: know if it was bad. I don't know if it

641
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 3: was good. I don't know if it's you swallow your

642
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 3: whistle at the big moment, all of that narrative. I

643
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 3: just I can't do it. The decision to commit the

644
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 3: penalty is the problem, and that is on James Bradbury,

645
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 3: and that's on the coaching staff because it was the

646
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 3: worst possible outcome to commit a penalty and give them

647
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 3: the first down, give up the touchdown. That is a

648
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 3: way better outcome for you. In that moment, you're down

649
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 3: seven with the ball and a chance to go down

650
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 3: and tie or try to win something. You have a chance.

651
00:30:54,960 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 3: The decision to grab onto him was the big, egregious problem,

652
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 3: not the call itself. On the other hand, the people

653
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 3: who are saying, oh, well the Eagles were, they're screwed anyways.

654
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 3: The Chiefs were just going to score. It didn't matter

655
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 3: win probability a minute fifty ish left at that point,

656
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 3: if you're the team it basically you put the win

657
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:19,840
Speaker 3: privaty calculator. The Chiefs were twenty six percent or the

658
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 3: Eagles are twenty six percent likely to win at that

659
00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 3: point after the penalty, and then McKinnon smart play to

660
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 3: slide down and you run the clock down and basically

661
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 3: now the Eagles get the ball back with like one

662
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:33,680
Speaker 3: play left deep in their own like you're in miracle range.

663
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:38,160
Speaker 3: You're in, sorry, Brennan, like Patriots miracle into the Raiders

664
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 3: sort of range here where you need some wild, crazy finish.

665
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 1: Oh, that Patriots team got it.

666
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 3: Yeah that one. Yeah that team. So twenty six percent

667
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 3: down to zero percent twenty six is not very good.

668
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:51,720
Speaker 3: The Eagles were unlikely to win. They would have had

669
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 3: to go down and get a touchdown or field goal

670
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 3: and maybe when overtime, but twenty six down to zero.

671
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 3: That's what the penalty did, was it took a long

672
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 3: shot chance for the Eagles two basically no shot chance

673
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:03,240
Speaker 3: for the Eagles.

674
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 5: Yep, Well said, yeah, you give a touchdown there. I

675
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 5: tend to agree. I kept thinking, okay, here they're gonna

676
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:12,719
Speaker 5: le mcore they're gonna him score it. It just never happened.

677
00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes MVP. Jill, you have thoughts on that.

678
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:19,960
Speaker 4: My only thought was that we talked about it off air,

679
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 4: like should you have bet at pregame? And I don't

680
00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 4: think so, Like, I don't think you would have taken

681
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 4: Mahomes in this spot because the Chiefs were already underdogs.

682
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 2: Like part of the reason why you would.

683
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 4: Take an MVP at that low of odds is if

684
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 4: they're already favored and you're trying to find a more

685
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 4: profitable angle, because it's more likely that if they're going

686
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 4: to win, it's probably going to be the MVP that

687
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 4: would have worked had you been doing it on the

688
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 4: Jailen Hurt side, because they were favored by minus one

689
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 4: minus one and a half depending on when you betted

690
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 4: throughout the week. He's around plus one thirty for MVP.

691
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:50,959
Speaker 4: Had the Eagles one, he certainly would have won MVP.

692
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 2: And I mean.

693
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 4: Going into halftime, I mean you could make a case

694
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 4: that Kelsey was probably gonna win it in the first half.

695
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 4: I mean Nick Bolton, if we could determine and what

696
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 4: a catch was, probably would have won MVP in that spot.

697
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 4: But yeah, I think that was it is that the

698
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 4: right player one, But at the same time, from a

699
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:13,640
Speaker 4: betting perspective, it's probably wasn't the best approach to bet

700
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 4: on Mahomes pregame at the plus one thirty odds, especially

701
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 4: when he was around plus three fifty entering Conference championship week.

702
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, and it's interesting the two biggest plays of

703
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 3: the game for the Chiefs, I thought, and by winning

704
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 3: probability with a defensive score that Nick Bolton had and

705
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 3: then the Kadarius Tony punter returned, that was a nineteen

706
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 3: percent win probability to swing sixty five yards. Those two

707
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 3: plays were thirteen point four expected points two plays thirty

708
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 3: seven percent win probability in a coin flip game while

709
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes watched on the sidelines. That's not taking anything away.

710
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:54,280
Speaker 3: Mahomes was magnificent. He was incredible, untouchable in the second half.

711
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:57,600
Speaker 3: But you win with the team, and the Chiefs team

712
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 3: helped them win the game on special teams, which didn't

713
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 3: happen great all season for them, and then on defense,

714
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 3: which was even worse for much of the season, but

715
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:10,800
Speaker 3: those guys came through. I there's some talk about, well,

716
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 3: should Jalen Hurts have been MVP and a losing cast.

717
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts was fantastic. Jalen Hurts had zero point four

718
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:21,319
Speaker 3: EP per play outside of the fumble. His numbers were incredible.

719
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 3: I thought just as a passer at times he outplayed Mahomes.

720
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 3: He just had dialed up some just dimes to Dallas Goddard,

721
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 3: to Devonte Smith. These great throws Eagles, especially on late downs,

722
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:37,400
Speaker 3: were incredible. What you don't get to take away the

723
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 3: fumble six If you are the guy that fumbles the

724
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:43,400
Speaker 3: ball away and gives up the play that costs you

725
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 3: the game, you're not the MVP and a losing cause.

726
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:48,360
Speaker 3: You're also the reason you're the losing cause, Like you

727
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:50,480
Speaker 3: get all the good and the bad. I thought that

728
00:34:50,560 --> 00:34:53,840
Speaker 3: was kind of disqualifying for Hurts. Mahomes was great MVP.

729
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:58,400
Speaker 3: He's the fifth player now with multiple Super Bowl MVPs.

730
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:02,919
Speaker 3: So what's wild is so that that list is of course,

731
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 3: Eli Manning, Gusts start there, carry bradshaw Art star two weeks,

732
00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 3: Joe Montana with three, and some guy named Tom has five.

733
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 3: I guess so Pat Mahomes joins the list.

734
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 5: Okay, onto the recap. Brandan Anderson some big wins misses.

735
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 1: From the season that you'd like to highlight.

736
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 3: Well, I went back the first time the three of

737
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:23,480
Speaker 3: us were on a podcast together. The first bet we

738
00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 3: gave out for this season was Patrick Mahomes to win

739
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:29,319
Speaker 3: MVP nine to one. The first thing we said, ever,

740
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,759
Speaker 3: and look, that doesn't sound like, oh, great, great job, guys,

741
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 3: genius pick giving out Pat Mahomes win MVP, but we

742
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:39,760
Speaker 3: had the narrative early on. We also gave out Jalen

743
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,360
Speaker 3: Hurts twenty five to one as a long shot that

744
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 3: we liked on that one, So that was a big win.

745
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 3: Eagles were a team that we talked up big here

746
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 3: on this podcast on Action Network. Eagles one seed fourteen

747
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 3: to one, best record twenty to one, fced twelve to one,

748
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 3: and then a couple other ones Jaguars worst to first

749
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:00,560
Speaker 3: eight to one. That was a big win. And then

750
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 3: of course you got to finish with the one we

751
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:06,840
Speaker 3: loved all year, Seattle Island. Plus fifteen hundred playoffs of

752
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 3: mad a year and lots of Seattle Island plays along

753
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 3: the way. Some are ra Tomlin spots too, but Seattle Island,

754
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 3: you know, that would be a lasting memory for me.

755
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:15,880
Speaker 3: This season.

756
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 5: Did you did you have the Eagles to be the

757
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 5: last team to lose a game two or I don't

758
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:22,920
Speaker 5: think so.

759
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:26,040
Speaker 3: I think that I went I would go with long

760
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,719
Speaker 3: shots on those. I believe I may have actually had

761
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 3: Washington for that one based on a schedule, So yeah,

762
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 3: that one didn't happen for me.

763
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:38,160
Speaker 1: Okay, Jill, any favorite bets or moments from the year?

764
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 1: Preseason pick?

765
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, we did a future spot at the start of

766
00:36:42,840 --> 00:36:45,800
Speaker 4: the season. So first bet that I gave out was

767
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,120
Speaker 4: Offensive Player of the Year and that was Justin Jefferson

768
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 4: at sixteen to one. Felt pretty good about that now.

769
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 4: I also bet his college teammate Jamar Chase at plus

770
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:56,400
Speaker 4: three thousand. Had he played a full season, maybe it

771
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 4: would have been in contention, but I'll settle to Justin

772
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 4: Jefferson win any time time. Biggest miss was definitely taking

773
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:05,879
Speaker 4: Shaq Leonard for Defensive Player of the Year. He didn't

774
00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 4: even play three games. I mean the odds were there,

775
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:10,800
Speaker 4: but yeah, it didn't even play really that much. Just

776
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:13,359
Speaker 4: a lot of second place finishes where you feel good,

777
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:15,600
Speaker 4: you'll be able to say, oh I got this, but

778
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 4: doesn't really matter because that's future's betting for you know

779
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:21,480
Speaker 4: you had Jalen Hurt's most rushing touchdowns, Joe Burrow most

780
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:24,399
Speaker 4: passing touchdowns. You know we had Doug Peterson for coach

781
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 4: of the Year. But again, that's future's betting for you,

782
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 4: is that if they don't win, is they're just a

783
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 4: nice story and that's about it.

784
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 5: I think this next point of discussion is very important

785
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:37,960
Speaker 5: for listeners. Lessons and takeaways and what you can learn

786
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:41,160
Speaker 5: from a season. You don't want to overreact to just

787
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 5: one year and not take away from what you've built

788
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 5: as far as study analysis, what goes into your handicapping.

789
00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 1: But we'll go to Brandon first.

790
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 5: On sides. I know Jill's made his name for touchdowns

791
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 5: interceptions from earlier in the year. I mean, man, that's

792
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:55,799
Speaker 5: taken me back a bit.

793
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 1: Just Matt Ryan, please play one more season just for.

794
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:02,279
Speaker 5: That, just for that in itself, interceptions. I mean, maybe

795
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:03,879
Speaker 5: the odds won't be that good if he comes back

796
00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:06,880
Speaker 5: in that case. But yeah, lessons learned and what we

797
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:09,239
Speaker 5: take away from the season so you can be better

798
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 5: next year. Brandon.

799
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I drawed down a couple of notes. The first

800
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:16,319
Speaker 3: thing is coaching staff and trenches still matter and matter

801
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 3: a lot more than give them credit for my first

802
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 3: two articles that actually I were with this football season,

803
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 3: we're covering those two. The Eagles and the Chiefs were

804
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 3: number one and number two on offensive line rankings. The

805
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 3: Chiefs were top two on both those articles trenches and

806
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 3: coaching staffs, and here they are Super Bowl champion. That

807
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:36,960
Speaker 3: stuff matters. You got to pay attention to it. One

808
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 3: elite draft or one elite offseason can change everything. We

809
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 3: talked about the Eagles offseason. Bradbury, he came in, Hassan

810
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 3: Reddick nineteen and a half sacks. He came into that team.

811
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:51,720
Speaker 3: They got Jordan Davis in the draft like that changed everything.

812
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:55,440
Speaker 3: And too Tidwell Seattle Island. There were a team that

813
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 3: many including myself wrote off before the season. Their draft

814
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:01,840
Speaker 3: change everything them. So I think we got to be

815
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:04,640
Speaker 3: ready to be nimble and adjust to some of those teams.

816
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 3: Big takeaway for me, and I know this will come

817
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 3: as a huge surprise, but y'all are not playing enough futures.

818
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:14,960
Speaker 3: Futures have to be played before the season, but not

819
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 3: just then, but all year long. Keep building those portfolios.

820
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:21,759
Speaker 3: We got big wins all season long. We built out

821
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 3: the award portfolios, We got some of those make or

822
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 3: miss playoff bets. If you fall in the app we

823
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:30,000
Speaker 3: finish I think plus eighty one units on the futures

824
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:32,399
Speaker 3: for the season, and a few a few more wins

825
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 3: that couldn't track in there. Some of the awards are

826
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 3: still going to show up there. The futures market is

827
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 3: beatable and it's not just a thing that you grab

828
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:43,320
Speaker 3: a few long shots on before the season. So for me,

829
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 3: that was a big takeaway. And then the thing I'm

830
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 3: excited about forward is I look back at I had

831
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:51,320
Speaker 3: the quarterback ranks before the season. Top five on my

832
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:56,880
Speaker 3: list Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson. Whoops, And the

833
00:39:56,960 --> 00:40:00,640
Speaker 3: quarterback list is changing. You know, Brady is retired, Russell

834
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:04,359
Speaker 3: Wilson should be retired. Aaron Rodgers might be retired. He's

835
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 3: like in a dark chamber somewhere as we record this.

836
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 3: And the new top three is Mahomes, Josh Allen, and

837
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 3: Burrow some order, obviously, But after that, well, where are

838
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:16,439
Speaker 3: we going?

839
00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:16,719
Speaker 5: Like?

840
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:20,759
Speaker 3: Who's coming? We got Jalen, Hurtz and Tua made big

841
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 3: steps forward. I think Trevor Lawrence is going to continue

842
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:27,400
Speaker 3: to move toward that path. Is it justin fields. Is

843
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:30,680
Speaker 3: it Trey Lance or someone? Is it a rookie coming up?

844
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:34,239
Speaker 3: I think we're kind of seeing the quarterback changing the guard.

845
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:38,360
Speaker 3: We saw Rogers Brady Breeze for so long. It was

846
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:42,239
Speaker 3: the same guys for like fifteen years, and like Pad

847
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:44,799
Speaker 3: is the old garden now and we're going to see

848
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:46,920
Speaker 3: a next gap and I think that will start to

849
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 3: determine kind of how we play things going forward. So

850
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 3: that's some of the stuff I got my eye on there.

851
00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:53,840
Speaker 5: One of my favorites from the year was Garrett Wilson,

852
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 5: the Garrett Wilson Offensive.

853
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:57,759
Speaker 1: Rookie of the Year that you gave out. That was

854
00:40:57,880 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 1: what week that was in November?

855
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 3: That was late November, and we based that was basically

856
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:05,399
Speaker 3: the live We went on Green Dot to record something

857
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:08,600
Speaker 3: else entirely and got the live news that Zach Wilson

858
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 3: was getting benched and that was just like, hey, well,

859
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 3: Jarry Wilson was a lot better when he had a

860
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:17,319
Speaker 3: real quarterback. What if that happened? That was a forty one.

861
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 3: My only regret on that one is a half unit.

862
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:21,600
Speaker 3: I wish we'd done a little bit more with that one,

863
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:24,279
Speaker 3: But yeah, you got to keep an eye that's the

864
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:26,759
Speaker 3: thing with those futures markets. Here we are on like

865
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:31,400
Speaker 3: some random Thursday morning, like doing Green Dot Live, and

866
00:41:31,520 --> 00:41:33,400
Speaker 3: a news piece comes out, and you've got to be

867
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:36,800
Speaker 3: able to say, Okay, that happened. What's the angle? And

868
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:39,440
Speaker 3: the angle usually is, well, let's adjust the line right

869
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:41,800
Speaker 3: now for the game right now. But what's the big picture,

870
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:44,279
Speaker 3: what's the long term thing? Because if you can get

871
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:46,239
Speaker 3: down the board a little bit and get some of

872
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:50,359
Speaker 3: these twenty to one thirty forty to one's the book.

873
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 3: Sometimes those end up priced not quite right, and the

874
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:55,640
Speaker 3: difference of a win for you a forty to one

875
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:57,920
Speaker 3: versus a twenty to one is only a slight difference

876
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:01,880
Speaker 3: in implied win probability, but double the money for our pockets.

877
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:04,839
Speaker 3: So getting those big long shot futures when they hit

878
00:42:04,960 --> 00:42:05,799
Speaker 3: can really pay off.

879
00:42:06,040 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 5: And as far as a lesson, I think it hits

880
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:09,480
Speaker 5: on your point too. You can hit on everything in

881
00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:11,600
Speaker 5: the draft, and the Jets had a great draft. The

882
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:14,080
Speaker 5: Seahawks had a great draft. You got to make sure

883
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:16,000
Speaker 5: you get the quarterback right, and you can have one

884
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:18,800
Speaker 5: great year from Gino Smith and have a comeback Player

885
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:21,360
Speaker 5: of the Year season, But the Jets make that switch,

886
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:24,279
Speaker 5: and while they didn't make the playoffs, that switch going

887
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:28,719
Speaker 5: from your second overall pick to a seventh rounder or

888
00:42:28,760 --> 00:42:30,400
Speaker 5: a guy who was at the bottom of the draft

889
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:33,200
Speaker 5: and Mike White, it can change. Like you said, it

890
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:35,359
Speaker 5: changes your thinking not just for that week, but how

891
00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 5: can we make a play going forward, Jill, interceptions were

892
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:42,279
Speaker 5: the thing on the best bets pot early in the year.

893
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:44,319
Speaker 1: You were hitting on that guys at plus money.

894
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 5: Take advantage of those spots, and then of course the

895
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 5: I mean you correct me if I'm wrong. I thought

896
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:52,759
Speaker 5: from anytime touchdown perspective, you got rolling when the playoffs started.

897
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 4: Absolutely and that helped obviously because it was a pretty

898
00:42:56,239 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 4: big struggle at the start of the year, especially the

899
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 4: first nine weeks of the year, which saw one hundred

900
00:43:02,680 --> 00:43:06,560
Speaker 4: less touchdowns in just the previous season, which completely changes

901
00:43:06,640 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 4: odds and the way that goes. So I'm going to

902
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 4: try to make this quick, but these are the three

903
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:12,920
Speaker 4: takeaways that I have from this season and ways that

904
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 4: we can use this info for actionable bets for next year.

905
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:18,880
Speaker 4: So the first thing that you want to do from

906
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:21,920
Speaker 4: a touchdown score perspective is you want to try to

907
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 4: identify a pocket passing quarterback who's got that underrated athleticism

908
00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 4: that you think could probably have a big year for

909
00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 4: brushing touchdowns. So the first time that I was able

910
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:33,400
Speaker 4: to do this, like in twenty twenty and twenty twenty one,

911
00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:36,080
Speaker 4: Ryan Tannehill was my guy. Ryan Tannehill was the leading

912
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:39,000
Speaker 4: touchdown score of profits fifteen units in profit in twenty

913
00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:43,760
Speaker 4: twenty one. The most profitable quarterback this year was actually

914
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:46,120
Speaker 4: Joe Burrow. He actually would have had if you had

915
00:43:46,160 --> 00:43:48,040
Speaker 4: bet him every week, you would have been up seventeen

916
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:49,440
Speaker 4: point seven units in profit.

917
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:53,520
Speaker 2: He finished with five touchdowns. So this year coming up, the.

918
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 4: Kind of quarterbacks that you want to look at are

919
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:57,800
Speaker 4: the guys who have that athleticism but make their money

920
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:00,239
Speaker 4: throwing the ball and we're going to finish beween the

921
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 4: five to eight touchdown range and have typically plus four

922
00:44:03,640 --> 00:44:06,040
Speaker 4: hundred to plus six hundred odds to score a touchdown.

923
00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:08,800
Speaker 4: Guys like that that fit that mold are like Trevor

924
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 4: Lawrence or even a Justin Herbert as well, who again

925
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:13,880
Speaker 4: you would think from a passing standpoint, that's the way

926
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:16,200
Speaker 4: that they would make their money, especially with Austin Ekwid.

927
00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 4: But Justin Herbert is a guy who you could probably

928
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:21,759
Speaker 4: see Rush for five touchdowns and replace Joe Burrow in

929
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:22,520
Speaker 4: that top ten.

930
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:24,320
Speaker 2: So that's the first takeaway.

931
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:28,759
Speaker 4: The second takeaway is stop betting on touchdown scorers with

932
00:44:28,960 --> 00:44:32,320
Speaker 4: minus odds. So I track the odds every week for

933
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:35,000
Speaker 4: every player minus odds plus odds, you name it.

934
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 2: For the season, if you.

935
00:44:36,640 --> 00:44:39,440
Speaker 4: Would bet on minus odds players, minus od players finished

936
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:43,439
Speaker 4: forty eight point four percent overall. So if you've set

937
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:46,280
Speaker 4: a touchdown score at minus one twenty, that's about fifty

938
00:44:46,320 --> 00:44:50,320
Speaker 4: four percent implied probability. But you're betting into a market

939
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:52,600
Speaker 4: that has a forty eight percent hit rate, So it's

940
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 4: a minus evy bet every time. To me, every time

941
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 4: that somebody brings up a minus touchdown score, it's like

942
00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:00,680
Speaker 4: the same argument of somebody telling me that they're going.

943
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:01,480
Speaker 2: To tease through zero.

944
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 4: Of course you can do it, and you can eventually

945
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:07,239
Speaker 4: win some bets here or they're doing that, but long

946
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:09,799
Speaker 4: term that is a bad strategy. You have to pick

947
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 4: your spots if you're going to do that, or just

948
00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:14,479
Speaker 4: avoid it all together and don't let social media fool

949
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:19,000
Speaker 4: you with people seeing these six favorites, uh cashing parlay

950
00:45:19,120 --> 00:45:21,640
Speaker 4: kind of thing like ten dollars paying ten thousand kind

951
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 4: of stuff. Don't let social media fool you because a

952
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:25,840
Speaker 4: lot of those people who are betting on that have

953
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 4: fifty other tickets all based all.

954
00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:31,240
Speaker 2: Around that, and then they just show you the winner.

955
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:33,920
Speaker 4: So the other thing I wanted to just talk about

956
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:36,239
Speaker 4: that is some players that people would normally bet in

957
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:39,360
Speaker 4: this spot a Travis kelce If you bet Travis kelcey

958
00:45:39,440 --> 00:45:41,720
Speaker 4: for an any time touchdown in every game this season,

959
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:43,800
Speaker 4: you would have been down four and a half units.

960
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:47,160
Speaker 4: Jamal Williams, who finished with the most rushing touchdowns, you'd

961
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:49,560
Speaker 4: only be up three point eight units in profit, didn't

962
00:45:49,560 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 4: even finish inside the top fifty in profits. Jalen Hurts

963
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:55,160
Speaker 4: another one three point units and three point nine units

964
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 4: in profit. And then from a receiving standpoint, I know

965
00:45:57,680 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 4: I bet on them. Devonte Adams fourteen touchdo if you

966
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:02,799
Speaker 4: had bet him every week, you would have made one

967
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:05,959
Speaker 4: point four units in profits. So again, just those kinds

968
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:08,360
Speaker 4: of guys, I'm not saying not to bet them, just

969
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 4: just be careful when you're doing that. Now, from an

970
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:16,960
Speaker 4: interception prop standpoint, plus money, interceptions is the way to go.

971
00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:20,279
Speaker 4: So plus money quarterbacks this year when eighty one and

972
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:24,080
Speaker 4: seventy five. You think, okay, well they only finished six wins.

973
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:25,080
Speaker 2: More than you lost.

974
00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 4: Well, actually, if you had bet them blindly the entire year,

975
00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 4: you would have been up twenty four and a half

976
00:46:29,200 --> 00:46:33,360
Speaker 4: units in profit just taking plus money interception props. Now, unfortunately,

977
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 4: one of the guys that led to a lot of

978
00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:37,880
Speaker 4: those profits is a quarterback from my team, Dak Prescott,

979
00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:41,560
Speaker 4: who led all QUARTERBACKSIT interception profits with eight point six

980
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:44,560
Speaker 4: units if you would just bet his interception prop every week.

981
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:47,680
Speaker 4: So that was painful, But at the same time, I'm

982
00:46:47,719 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 4: more in it to make money than I am in

983
00:46:49,239 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 4: my fandom. So that's the angle that I would take

984
00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:55,200
Speaker 4: is plus money interceptions, don't best bet on minus od

985
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:58,400
Speaker 4: touchdown scores, and try to identify a quarterback that you

986
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 4: think is going to have a big year rushing football.

987
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:03,279
Speaker 4: And two guys that I've identified as Trevor Lawrence and

988
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 4: Justin Herbert for twenty twenty three.

989
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:07,959
Speaker 5: I didn't even want to know how many units people

990
00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 5: would have lost on Jonathan Taylor because he was the

991
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:13,440
Speaker 5: sexy pick right coming into the year after having an

992
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:16,040
Speaker 5: MVP caliber season on the ground. He was like, oh,

993
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:18,399
Speaker 5: it should be the quarterbacks and I'm talking last year

994
00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:22,640
Speaker 5: now entering this season. After last year it was, well,

995
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:24,399
Speaker 5: you know all these quarterbacks that are in the next

996
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:27,800
Speaker 5: and then there's Jonathan Taylor, who was the MVP of

997
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:29,839
Speaker 5: a lot of fantasy leagues last year.

998
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:32,600
Speaker 4: He only finished with just over four units of profit

999
00:47:32,640 --> 00:47:37,000
Speaker 4: had you bet him every this year again injury concerns

1000
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:38,760
Speaker 4: and stuff like that. So I don't want to completely

1001
00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 4: hold this against him, but if you had bet him

1002
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:42,200
Speaker 4: every game that he had played, you would have finished

1003
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:43,760
Speaker 4: down three point one to five units.

1004
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:45,680
Speaker 1: I love how you just had that ready to go

1005
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:47,600
Speaker 1: and I didn't even have to warn you. It's just

1006
00:47:47,960 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 1: it's terrific. So okay, I want to ask one more

1007
00:47:51,640 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 1: before we got to go to the hot red. So

1008
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:54,640
Speaker 1: who is your like.

1009
00:47:56,840 --> 00:47:59,960
Speaker 5: Picture right now it's week one or it's the preseas

1010
00:48:00,040 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 5: he's in week three and you're getting ready to go

1011
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:04,759
Speaker 5: to give your week one touchdown picks? Who's going to

1012
00:48:04,840 --> 00:48:07,239
Speaker 5: be that guy where you're like, don't do it, don't

1013
00:48:07,560 --> 00:48:11,520
Speaker 5: don't take the bait on blank that is going to

1014
00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:15,560
Speaker 5: be a favorite of a lot of people to get.

1015
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:18,640
Speaker 4: I mean, I think the obvious guy that you would

1016
00:48:18,640 --> 00:48:22,160
Speaker 4: immediately look to is Derrick Henry h Derek Henry is

1017
00:48:22,160 --> 00:48:24,480
Speaker 4: probably going to be around minus one forty minus one

1018
00:48:24,560 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 4: fifty every week, and Derrick Henry is historically a slow starter.

1019
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 4: You look at the first three weeks of games over

1020
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:35,040
Speaker 4: the last few seasons, barring that injury aside, he doesn't

1021
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:37,799
Speaker 4: really blow up. It's more closer to the second half

1022
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:39,800
Speaker 4: of the season than when you see those explosions of

1023
00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:42,839
Speaker 4: like the three touchdown game, two touchdown game, and even then,

1024
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:46,520
Speaker 4: you know the Titans offense is so limited and they're

1025
00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:49,880
Speaker 4: so one dimensional that yes, he's going to get the volume,

1026
00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:51,839
Speaker 4: but at the same time, it just may not work out.

1027
00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 4: So betting on a minus one fifty a lot of

1028
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:55,640
Speaker 4: the time what people would do is either single bedt

1029
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:57,680
Speaker 4: or put it as a leg on a parlay. And

1030
00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:00,840
Speaker 4: Derrick Henry again, I think he's gonna running back in

1031
00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:03,600
Speaker 4: real life, But for betting it for touchdown scores, it's

1032
00:49:03,680 --> 00:49:04,040
Speaker 4: a trap.

1033
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:07,840
Speaker 1: Okay, keep that in mind, folks, Hot read time.

1034
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:08,600
Speaker 3: Hot rap.

1035
00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 4: On, ice rights, ice cream, A Dard nineteen sound nineteen.

1036
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:21,320
Speaker 1: We'll go.

1037
00:49:21,600 --> 00:49:23,600
Speaker 5: We'll just do both of these from each of you them.

1038
00:49:23,640 --> 00:49:25,799
Speaker 5: We'll do some thank yous and get out of here.

1039
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:27,640
Speaker 5: Brandon at Er said hot Red, what would we like

1040
00:49:27,760 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 5: for a champion for next year and an MVP?

1041
00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:33,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, so obviously a champion. Around this time of the year,

1042
00:49:33,840 --> 00:49:35,560
Speaker 3: you always want to say, Okay, well the Chiefs are

1043
00:49:35,600 --> 00:49:38,759
Speaker 3: the champion. Who are next year's Chiefs. That doesn't really work.

1044
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:40,920
Speaker 3: Next year's Chiefs are just the Chiefs again, and they

1045
00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 3: have Patrick Mahomes. There's only one of them. So I'll

1046
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:46,279
Speaker 3: try to go for next year's Eagles. Willing for a

1047
00:49:46,320 --> 00:49:49,720
Speaker 3: team that's great in the trenches. We want progressive coaching,

1048
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:52,960
Speaker 3: we need a smart front office, and then you hope

1049
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:54,960
Speaker 3: that maybe you get a quarterback that can make a

1050
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:58,200
Speaker 3: leap like Jalen Hurts did this season. And if I'm

1051
00:49:58,200 --> 00:50:00,640
Speaker 3: playing this time of the year before or even get

1052
00:50:00,680 --> 00:50:02,920
Speaker 3: the off season stuff, before we get into all the

1053
00:50:03,040 --> 00:50:05,680
Speaker 3: good stuff into the year, for me, I'm only looking

1054
00:50:05,719 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 3: at long shots here. I need to rush and play

1055
00:50:08,239 --> 00:50:11,480
Speaker 3: Philadelphia or Kansas City or whoever. I'm trying to just

1056
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:13,840
Speaker 3: get the best of a long number here. So go

1057
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:17,840
Speaker 3: down the board. Give me the Cleveland Browns plus forty

1058
00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:22,040
Speaker 3: five hundred. They fit the Eagles formula for me. Elite

1059
00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:26,879
Speaker 3: offensive line Jadevian Clowney could be potentially the best play

1060
00:50:26,920 --> 00:50:28,839
Speaker 3: he could. You know, he could be a DPOI sort

1061
00:50:28,880 --> 00:50:32,320
Speaker 3: of guy. If they play well, really talented secondary that

1062
00:50:32,480 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 3: was banged up a lot of this year, elite running game,

1063
00:50:36,080 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 3: and they might already have the quarterback solution on the team.

1064
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:43,480
Speaker 3: If Deshaun Watson, who we slandered plenty of this year,

1065
00:50:44,200 --> 00:50:46,440
Speaker 3: but if he can with a training camp and everything

1066
00:50:46,560 --> 00:50:48,360
Speaker 3: kind of get back to what Deshaun Watson is. I

1067
00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:51,480
Speaker 3: didn't list him in that list of quarterbacks to come,

1068
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:55,960
Speaker 3: but by talent, Deshaun Watson should be in that group,

1069
00:50:56,480 --> 00:50:59,239
Speaker 3: not far off of Burrow Allen, justin Herbert like he

1070
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:02,000
Speaker 3: should be in that of people. So I think forty

1071
00:51:02,080 --> 00:51:04,880
Speaker 3: five is just too long the number for them for

1072
00:51:05,040 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 3: next Eagles and then next year's MVP same thing. I'm

1073
00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:11,160
Speaker 3: only playing if I can find a name down far down.

1074
00:51:11,040 --> 00:51:11,600
Speaker 2: In the odds.

1075
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:14,839
Speaker 3: So I got the jersey on representing give me San

1076
00:51:14,880 --> 00:51:19,840
Speaker 3: Francisco Trey Lance fifty to one odds right now. And

1077
00:51:19,920 --> 00:51:23,200
Speaker 3: the reason is simple. We saw the case this year.

1078
00:51:23,640 --> 00:51:26,440
Speaker 3: We saw just put me put one of the two

1079
00:51:26,520 --> 00:51:29,000
Speaker 3: of you in that quarterback for the forty nine ers,

1080
00:51:29,040 --> 00:51:32,239
Speaker 3: and we're apparently an MVP candidate. Rock perty walked off

1081
00:51:32,280 --> 00:51:35,120
Speaker 3: of the last pick in the draft and nearly stole

1082
00:51:35,120 --> 00:51:37,120
Speaker 3: a Rookie of the Year over the last like six

1083
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:41,480
Speaker 3: weeks of the season. Trey Lance can do the running stuff.

1084
00:51:41,640 --> 00:51:44,360
Speaker 3: Trey Lance, I think looks a lot like what Jalen

1085
00:51:44,440 --> 00:51:46,800
Speaker 3: Hurts could be as that sort of player if you

1086
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:49,279
Speaker 3: put him in that system, and no team in the

1087
00:51:49,520 --> 00:51:52,320
Speaker 3: in the league, no system is better set up to

1088
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:55,319
Speaker 3: make a quarterback look good. With Cal Shanahan's scheme, all

1089
00:51:55,360 --> 00:51:58,880
Speaker 3: those weapons, all the blocking and defense, Trey Lance fifty

1090
00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:00,600
Speaker 3: to one. I think the number of long because we

1091
00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:03,200
Speaker 3: don't know for sure, will he be ready, will he

1092
00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:06,239
Speaker 3: start over purty, will Tom brady On retire for the

1093
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 3: seven hundredth time and come back and play for the Niners.

1094
00:52:09,880 --> 00:52:12,959
Speaker 3: I think we're buying some value there. Last year around

1095
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:15,680
Speaker 3: this team, Jalen Hurts was like forty to one MVP

1096
00:52:16,200 --> 00:52:18,440
Speaker 3: and got beat down to closer twenty five to one

1097
00:52:18,520 --> 00:52:20,040
Speaker 3: before the start of the year, and then I kind

1098
00:52:20,080 --> 00:52:22,520
Speaker 3: of talk myself out of the value a bit. This

1099
00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:25,879
Speaker 3: is the time now to get Trey Lance because once

1100
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:28,520
Speaker 3: he's the sure starter and looking healthy and everything, I

1101
00:52:28,560 --> 00:52:31,000
Speaker 3: think it's fifty to one ends up more like twenty

1102
00:52:31,080 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 3: or twenty five to one for the exact same situation.

1103
00:52:33,920 --> 00:52:37,880
Speaker 3: So give me the Browns and Trey Lance. That's the

1104
00:52:37,960 --> 00:52:38,960
Speaker 3: story next season.

1105
00:52:39,840 --> 00:52:43,680
Speaker 4: Jill, Well, yeah, I'll take a swing at this now.

1106
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:45,960
Speaker 4: I will say, if you're not looking at the long

1107
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:48,640
Speaker 4: shots and you're looking just to pick a team, that's it,

1108
00:52:48,760 --> 00:52:51,279
Speaker 4: and you're not like thinking about odds specifically, I think

1109
00:52:51,320 --> 00:52:53,040
Speaker 4: the Bengals are still in a good spot to be

1110
00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:54,680
Speaker 4: able to come back and get out of the AFC

1111
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:57,120
Speaker 4: sitting around nine to one. Again, I'm not going to

1112
00:52:57,160 --> 00:52:58,880
Speaker 4: really try to talk you into it at this stage.

1113
00:52:58,880 --> 00:53:00,640
Speaker 4: I feel like you can get them. Wait till week

1114
00:53:00,719 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 4: one before you make that bet. But the long shots

1115
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:08,719
Speaker 4: that I wanted to ask about is specifically about Seahawks,

1116
00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:11,799
Speaker 4: and the Seahawks Island. They got a ton of cap room.

1117
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:14,080
Speaker 4: They've got three picks on the top forty, they've got

1118
00:53:14,120 --> 00:53:16,640
Speaker 4: a top five pick and then their own pick. The

1119
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:20,120
Speaker 4: Cardinals are a mess. The Rams, I'm not sure if

1120
00:53:20,120 --> 00:53:22,080
Speaker 4: they're going to be able to manifest kind of getting

1121
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:24,799
Speaker 4: back to where they were. So the division, I don't

1122
00:53:24,800 --> 00:53:26,879
Speaker 4: want to say is wide open, but it just again

1123
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:28,840
Speaker 4: we don't really know the quarterback situation as well for

1124
00:53:28,920 --> 00:53:32,719
Speaker 4: the Niners, that the Seahawks at sixty to one, you know,

1125
00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:34,600
Speaker 4: could be a team that we're maybe looking at that

1126
00:53:34,719 --> 00:53:36,640
Speaker 4: has one of the better records in the NFC by

1127
00:53:36,680 --> 00:53:38,080
Speaker 4: the end of the season, and then you're sitting on

1128
00:53:38,120 --> 00:53:42,719
Speaker 4: a pretty valuable ticket now from an MVP standpoint, I'm

1129
00:53:42,719 --> 00:53:44,640
Speaker 4: probably just gonna double down on what Brandon said just

1130
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:47,239
Speaker 4: because of Deshaun Watson sitting there at twenty five to one,

1131
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:50,720
Speaker 4: that if they get to that stage, you know, Deshaun

1132
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:53,520
Speaker 4: Watson could definitely be a factor as well, and just

1133
00:53:53,680 --> 00:53:56,560
Speaker 4: where he's at from he's not in that top group

1134
00:53:56,880 --> 00:54:00,440
Speaker 4: you know of the Mahomes, Burrow, Josh Allen again just

1135
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:02,960
Speaker 4: outside that range. So if they were able to have

1136
00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:05,080
Speaker 4: some early success, you could see that twenty five go

1137
00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:08,080
Speaker 4: down to ten to one fairly easily. But I wanted

1138
00:54:08,120 --> 00:54:10,279
Speaker 4: to pose a question to you, Brandon, because you're talking

1139
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:12,960
Speaker 4: about building out your portfolios and looking at you know,

1140
00:54:13,080 --> 00:54:16,640
Speaker 4: futures odds. The question I wanted to ask you is,

1141
00:54:17,400 --> 00:54:21,280
Speaker 4: and it pertains to Aaron Rodgers, is there potential value

1142
00:54:21,360 --> 00:54:25,000
Speaker 4: on sprinkling on the New York Jets now at twenty

1143
00:54:25,120 --> 00:54:27,759
Speaker 4: five to one, Because even if it's not Rogers. You know,

1144
00:54:27,880 --> 00:54:31,480
Speaker 4: their quarterback situation is likely to improve because there's a

1145
00:54:31,560 --> 00:54:34,760
Speaker 4: few vet quarterbacks that are out there, a Derek carr

1146
00:54:36,000 --> 00:54:38,040
Speaker 4: Brady again if we're joking if he does come out

1147
00:54:38,080 --> 00:54:41,200
Speaker 4: of retirement, but Rogers as well. What I'm asking is,

1148
00:54:41,320 --> 00:54:44,000
Speaker 4: if I'm a future is better, should this be the

1149
00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:46,400
Speaker 4: time where maybe I put a unit down on that

1150
00:54:46,680 --> 00:54:48,840
Speaker 4: just to have the portfolio start to build out for

1151
00:54:48,880 --> 00:54:51,719
Speaker 4: twenty twenty three Or is twenty five to one just

1152
00:54:51,800 --> 00:54:54,960
Speaker 4: not enough value even if the Rogers potential is out there?

1153
00:54:56,040 --> 00:54:56,239
Speaker 5: Yeah?

1154
00:54:56,280 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 3: I think the hard part is that I think you're

1155
00:54:58,560 --> 00:55:01,360
Speaker 3: right on both parts there. I think, yes, the Jets

1156
00:55:01,520 --> 00:55:04,239
Speaker 3: roster is absolutely set up to be a team that

1157
00:55:04,320 --> 00:55:06,480
Speaker 3: you get the right quarterback to step in an oh man,

1158
00:55:06,640 --> 00:55:09,480
Speaker 3: now we're cooking. We had a great coaching staff, we

1159
00:55:09,600 --> 00:55:13,040
Speaker 3: had an improving offensive line, lots of weapons, obviously elite

1160
00:55:13,120 --> 00:55:16,200
Speaker 3: defense already Suddenly like that looks a lot like maybe

1161
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:17,840
Speaker 3: what the forty nine ers look like, kind of a

1162
00:55:18,000 --> 00:55:22,160
Speaker 3: younger version of that team coming around the problem is

1163
00:55:22,840 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 3: that at twenty five to one, I think that we're

1164
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:26,839
Speaker 3: already getting that priced in a little bit. I think

1165
00:55:26,840 --> 00:55:29,520
Speaker 3: they're taking advantage of our desire to bet the Jets

1166
00:55:29,600 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 3: to be that team. So it's where it's kind of

1167
00:55:32,719 --> 00:55:34,440
Speaker 3: a hedge. It's like when you're going into a game

1168
00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:35,919
Speaker 3: and we don't know if the guy's going to play,

1169
00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:37,520
Speaker 3: and you got the line kind of stuck right in

1170
00:55:37,560 --> 00:55:39,919
Speaker 3: the middle there. I feel like we're paying a little

1171
00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:42,080
Speaker 3: bit of that for Aaron Rodgers. So but I think

1172
00:55:42,120 --> 00:55:45,319
Speaker 3: you're right, we're not getting Zach Wilson again. So even

1173
00:55:45,360 --> 00:55:47,800
Speaker 3: if it's like if it's Derek Carr, I think that

1174
00:55:48,160 --> 00:55:49,960
Speaker 3: it stays at this number, Like I think we're at

1175
00:55:50,040 --> 00:55:53,200
Speaker 3: least getting a median outcome some version of quarterback here.

1176
00:55:53,880 --> 00:55:55,520
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think you're right to look for that.

1177
00:55:56,040 --> 00:55:59,000
Speaker 3: Have an article up at Action Network from before the

1178
00:55:59,040 --> 00:56:02,160
Speaker 3: Super Bowl on which who's the next Eagles, Who's the

1179
00:56:02,239 --> 00:56:04,759
Speaker 3: next Bus? Who's the next Bucks? From two years ago

1180
00:56:04,880 --> 00:56:07,279
Speaker 3: not this year? Hopefully nobody has that version. Who are

1181
00:56:07,280 --> 00:56:09,719
Speaker 3: all those teams? And then new one today? Who are

1182
00:56:09,760 --> 00:56:13,440
Speaker 3: the teams that have the most QB ready rosters? And

1183
00:56:13,520 --> 00:56:16,239
Speaker 3: the Jets certainly are near the top of the list.

1184
00:56:16,600 --> 00:56:18,879
Speaker 3: My question back for you, Jelle, then we're gonna wrap

1185
00:56:19,000 --> 00:56:22,359
Speaker 3: up MVP. I think you think it quite far enough,

1186
00:56:22,719 --> 00:56:24,640
Speaker 3: far enough down the board. I got one more for you,

1187
00:56:25,120 --> 00:56:30,000
Speaker 3: fifty to one MVP Joe Russell Wilson, Baby Broncos revenge

1188
00:56:30,040 --> 00:56:31,000
Speaker 3: to our fifteen to one.

1189
00:56:31,080 --> 00:56:32,520
Speaker 2: Are you in Broncos Country?

1190
00:56:32,920 --> 00:56:33,439
Speaker 3: Let's rob.

1191
00:56:33,840 --> 00:56:36,160
Speaker 4: What a great way to end the recap pod by

1192
00:56:36,280 --> 00:56:39,759
Speaker 4: having me talk about the most inept team I've ever

1193
00:56:39,960 --> 00:56:44,279
Speaker 4: watched in the NFL, Like, it's so painful to watch

1194
00:56:44,400 --> 00:56:46,560
Speaker 4: a Broncos game. That was a point that I wanted

1195
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:49,320
Speaker 4: to bring up about earlier, about how it was almost

1196
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:53,440
Speaker 4: hilarious of how we as NFL fans got subjected to

1197
00:56:53,719 --> 00:56:58,040
Speaker 4: seven primetime games involving the Houston Texans, the Denver Broncos,

1198
00:56:58,239 --> 00:57:01,000
Speaker 4: and the Indianapolis Colts, two of those teams that I

1199
00:57:01,080 --> 00:57:04,280
Speaker 4: think schedule makers and even oddsmakers to a lesser extent

1200
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:07,600
Speaker 4: probably had higher expectations for. I mean, the Colts were

1201
00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:09,879
Speaker 4: favored to probably when the AFC South, you know, Russell

1202
00:57:09,920 --> 00:57:11,600
Speaker 4: Wilson coming to the Broncos, a lot of people thought

1203
00:57:11,640 --> 00:57:13,120
Speaker 4: that offense wasn't gonna be anemic.

1204
00:57:13,320 --> 00:57:14,680
Speaker 2: In fact, it went the other way.

1205
00:57:15,160 --> 00:57:18,120
Speaker 4: So even the fact that we got subjected to Broncos

1206
00:57:18,240 --> 00:57:22,000
Speaker 4: Colts Thursday Night Football twelve to nine, it might have

1207
00:57:22,080 --> 00:57:26,240
Speaker 4: been the best worst game of football we have ever watched,

1208
00:57:26,520 --> 00:57:28,760
Speaker 4: and it'll go down in history as just being the

1209
00:57:29,040 --> 00:57:31,360
Speaker 4: ugliest game of football we ever watched, where.

1210
00:57:31,440 --> 00:57:32,960
Speaker 1: It was so bad it was good.

1211
00:57:33,240 --> 00:57:36,600
Speaker 3: Sometimes the game can be so bad it's almost good.

1212
00:57:36,880 --> 00:57:40,440
Speaker 3: You know what I'm saying. No, some more frozen PiZZ

1213
00:57:40,480 --> 00:57:41,000
Speaker 3: out of the air.

1214
00:57:41,360 --> 00:57:43,480
Speaker 5: I really don't have anything to offer you, guys except

1215
00:57:43,560 --> 00:57:46,400
Speaker 5: for frozen pet Okay, we're gonna hand out some thank

1216
00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:48,840
Speaker 5: yous and get out of here. David Payne, our producer

1217
00:57:48,920 --> 00:57:51,280
Speaker 5: for most of the year. As it pertains to our

1218
00:57:51,320 --> 00:57:53,920
Speaker 5: recap episodes, David, a great job. Thanks for getting us

1219
00:57:53,960 --> 00:57:57,680
Speaker 5: up on the air. You kept us in line. Okay,

1220
00:57:57,920 --> 00:58:00,320
Speaker 5: wrap it up. How many minutes are we into the program?

1221
00:58:00,440 --> 00:58:02,040
Speaker 5: Like we're doing that right now. He's like, all right,

1222
00:58:02,080 --> 00:58:02,320
Speaker 5: let's go.

1223
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:02,880
Speaker 1: We gotta go.

1224
00:58:03,000 --> 00:58:04,600
Speaker 5: We got to move on with the day. So David,

1225
00:58:04,680 --> 00:58:09,160
Speaker 5: thank you for everything you've done. Edits The list grows

1226
00:58:09,400 --> 00:58:13,280
Speaker 5: as I think it out. Matt Mitchell is the straw

1227
00:58:13,400 --> 00:58:16,080
Speaker 5: that stirs the drink, if you will. He's the one

1228
00:58:16,120 --> 00:58:18,320
Speaker 5: that got us all together, cut us up on the air,

1229
00:58:18,480 --> 00:58:21,640
Speaker 5: keeps the structure good, constructive criticism, keeps it fun.

1230
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:25,400
Speaker 1: Mitchell's is a gem. Uncle Mitch, thank you for everything,

1231
00:58:25,560 --> 00:58:27,720
Speaker 1: and yeah, thanks for letting us do this.

1232
00:58:27,880 --> 00:58:33,960
Speaker 5: Really listeners phenomenal. We appreciate it. Your listenership is very

1233
00:58:34,320 --> 00:58:38,200
Speaker 5: reflects why we get to do this. So thank you, Raybond, Stucky,

1234
00:58:38,560 --> 00:58:40,600
Speaker 5: Luke Swain who does the Best Bets Pod with us

1235
00:58:40,640 --> 00:58:41,040
Speaker 5: every week.

1236
00:58:41,440 --> 00:58:42,080
Speaker 1: Luke was awesome.

1237
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:44,280
Speaker 5: Luke had a really heartfelt thank you on the last

1238
00:58:44,320 --> 00:58:47,040
Speaker 5: Best Bets Pod, and you two, you guys are awesome

1239
00:58:47,120 --> 00:58:50,080
Speaker 5: all year. Jill Brandon, I learned so much from this

1240
00:58:50,480 --> 00:58:53,240
Speaker 5: entire season. I feel like a listener when I do

1241
00:58:53,320 --> 00:58:55,680
Speaker 5: this episode with you guys every week, I'm just thinking, oh,

1242
00:58:55,840 --> 00:58:57,760
Speaker 5: never looked at it that way. Oh, that's good to

1243
00:58:57,880 --> 00:59:00,600
Speaker 5: keep in mind. So you made me feel smart about

1244
00:59:00,640 --> 00:59:02,600
Speaker 5: this space. So I thank you both very much for

1245
00:59:02,720 --> 00:59:04,440
Speaker 5: your help to make me better at what I do.

1246
00:59:05,080 --> 00:59:07,120
Speaker 5: And I look forward to more in the off season

1247
00:59:07,240 --> 00:59:10,080
Speaker 5: and heading into next year. All things NFL off season,

1248
00:59:10,200 --> 00:59:13,200
Speaker 5: free agency, draft, whatever it may be, will come your

1249
00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:14,160
Speaker 5: way to Action Network.

1250
00:59:14,200 --> 00:59:14,720
Speaker 1: Stay tuned.

1251
00:59:14,800 --> 00:59:18,160
Speaker 5: The podcast also our daily content throughout the course of

1252
00:59:18,240 --> 00:59:18,520
Speaker 5: the week.

1253
00:59:18,600 --> 00:59:22,080
Speaker 1: Actionnetwork dot com. You can download the free app as well. Okay,

1254
00:59:22,320 --> 00:59:22,600
Speaker 1: that's it.

1255
00:59:22,840 --> 00:59:25,520
Speaker 5: Thank you everybody for listening for Joe Glant, Brandon, Anderson

1256
00:59:25,720 --> 00:59:28,160
Speaker 5: David Payne as well as Matt Mitchell. Behind the scenes,

1257
00:59:28,200 --> 00:59:31,120
Speaker 5: Brendan Glashen thanks for listening to the Action Network podcast

1258
00:59:31,200 --> 00:59:32,280
Speaker 5: presented by Findle.

1259
00:59:32,440 --> 00:59:33,960
Speaker 1: You all have a great off season. We'll see you

1260
00:59:34,000 --> 00:59:52,800
Speaker 1: next football season. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1261
00:59:53,280 --> 00:59:56,040
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1262
00:59:56,400 --> 00:59:59,000
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1263
00:59:59,080 --> 00:59:59,800
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler