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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Right now, we're gonna look at like the pro view

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Speaker 2: of this odd bullmarket. I love what Stuart Kaiser and

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Speaker 2: City Group says here is this is very you know, folks,

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Speaker 2: This is like you know, geek talk, remain long US

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Speaker 2: equity beta with tactical IWM upside and consider Vic's roll

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Speaker 2: down trades.

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Speaker 3: I translate a wise one.

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Speaker 4: Well as much as I like to referred to as

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Speaker 4: a geek. Good morning everybody. Look, I think the.

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Speaker 5: Story here, if I were to summarize that is, we

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Speaker 5: still like being long US equities.

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Speaker 4: There's a lot of risk premium still in the VIX

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Speaker 4: curve right now.

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Speaker 5: I implied volatility is probably too high relative to how well

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Speaker 5: the equity markets are raviot.

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Speaker 3: It's out there.

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Speaker 5: Exactly, and as that sort of compresses, it just gives

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Speaker 5: another boost.

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Speaker 4: To the upside. So as much as people are.

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Speaker 5: Worried about valuation and positioning, there's still actually a fair

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Speaker 5: amount of fear price in your market that needs to

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Speaker 5: come out.

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Speaker 3: Shout out to zero head. You makes a big deedle

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Speaker 3: about this.

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Speaker 2: When you hear the phrase short covering, translate that on

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Speaker 2: the City group desk, it looks like the TV show

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Speaker 2: industry translate what short covering means?

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Speaker 5: Well, I think right now you have to think of

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Speaker 5: what is what stocks are short and those have typically

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Speaker 5: been like the lower quality stocks that people didn't want

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Speaker 5: to kind of touch. So when you get short covering,

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Speaker 5: what that's doing is it's putting pressure on the stocks

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Speaker 5: that hedge funds sort of don't like, and that can

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Speaker 5: be you know, really really painful for them at least

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Speaker 5: short term in terms of their P and L. So

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Speaker 5: what you're kind of doing is seeing a rotation into

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Speaker 5: the stocks that hedge funds don't own, and again that

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Speaker 5: could be un fund for them at least over a

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Speaker 5: short term period.

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Speaker 6: Is the market still overly concentrated in some of the

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Speaker 6: X number of big tech names. Is that still a

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Speaker 6: thing for this market?

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Speaker 5: I think it definitely is. You know, I was in

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Speaker 5: Europe a few weeks back, and I was surprised at

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Speaker 5: how underweight the AI trade and underweight US.

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Speaker 4: Tech they felt.

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Speaker 5: So I think the international investor, particularly early this year,

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Speaker 5: was trying to do the US exceptionalism as dead trade yep.

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Speaker 5: And then you got you know, better news on tariffs

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Speaker 5: and good news out of one Q earnings, and it

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Speaker 5: just kind of forced them back into the market.

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Speaker 3: See.

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Speaker 5: I mean, I think there is a fair amount of

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Speaker 5: call it concentration risk top ten s and p stocks

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Speaker 5: or more of a third of market cap that's not

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Speaker 5: going away, So it is. It is a kind of

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Speaker 5: a key aspect driving returns right.

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Speaker 6: Now, Espaishly, I don't see anything that's going to change that.

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Speaker 6: I don't see anybody going out there and saying I

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Speaker 6: want to go out.

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Speaker 4: And buy value.

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Speaker 6: What has to happen for that to broaden out, if

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Speaker 6: you will, Yeah, I think.

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Speaker 5: The broadening at this point has to come from economic

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Speaker 5: growth and earnings. So if during earning season you are

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Speaker 5: seeing a broadening out of that Ernie's growth, that can

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Speaker 5: get people maybe a little bit downcap structured into that

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Speaker 5: value trade. But to your point, I mean, the AI

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Speaker 5: trade is just so powerful, even Google overnight yep. A

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Speaker 5: lot of moving parts there, but a key of it

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Speaker 5: is they increase their cap X by another ten billion dollars,

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Speaker 5: and to the extent that that is still happening, it

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Speaker 5: makes it hard for people not to be in that space.

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Speaker 5: So I think that's kind of like we mentioned, being

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Speaker 5: long quality, like that mag seven trade is still the

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Speaker 5: core position for the most portfolios.

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Speaker 4: And then why we.

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Speaker 5: Like small cap is just you know, making sure we're

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Speaker 5: not ignoring, you know, the rest of the market during

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Speaker 5: earning season.

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Speaker 4: So the quick answer would be, we need to see

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Speaker 4: broader earnings.

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Speaker 5: Growth and recession risks continue to get squeezed out of

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Speaker 5: the market for that smaller cap, lower quality stock to work.

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Speaker 2: There's a headline out there is sort of in the

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Speaker 2: zeitgeist that I don't have the authority or data that

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Speaker 2: the quants are really having a.

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Speaker 3: Tough goal of it. What is a quant and why

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Speaker 3: are they having a tough goal of it?

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Speaker 5: Well, I mean on the QUANDT side, you know, these

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Speaker 5: are folks that you know are really investing very systematically

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Speaker 5: in box. Some I mean they wouldn't tell you they

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Speaker 5: understand the box, you know from a distance. Why are they,

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Speaker 5: you know, having some trouble? I would say that the

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Speaker 5: S and P five hundred realized volatility is below ten

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Speaker 5: percent right now, So the S ANDP is not moving

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Speaker 5: very much. The factors that a quant my trade style stocks,

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Speaker 5: value stocks, growth stocks, those have been incredibly volatile, much

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Speaker 5: more violatile than the S and P five hundred itself.

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Speaker 5: So if quants are under pressure, it's because the market

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Speaker 5: isn't moving very much, but the tools they use are

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Speaker 5: and that sort of dislocation can be really tricky for them.

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Speaker 6: I'll just speak for myself, I'm very surprised, given all

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Speaker 6: that's going on out there in the world, that the

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Speaker 6: VIX is a fifteen Is that?

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Speaker 4: What does that tell you?

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Speaker 6: That there's just people are just owning a certain number

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Speaker 6: of stocks, And I mean, I'm'm mat sure what that's

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Speaker 6: telling me.

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Speaker 4: Well, what part of it is the VIX itself.

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Speaker 5: The number one fundamental determinant of the level of the

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Speaker 5: VIX is S and P realized volatility. Okay, so if

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Speaker 5: you were to take let's say ten or twenty day

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Speaker 5: realize volatility on the SMP, you'd add about four and

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Speaker 5: a half points to that. That's going to give you

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Speaker 5: a quick and dirty on the VIX. The notable issue

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Speaker 5: with the VIX, now to your point, the spot VIX

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Speaker 5: is very low.

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Speaker 4: But the VIX has a term structure, so you can

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Speaker 4: trade the outlook for volatility for the next six to.

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Speaker 2: Nine months, betting that that outlook will come to a

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Speaker 2: lower VIX a greater optimism.

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Speaker 5: Yes, we do believe that that additional volatility priced into

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Speaker 5: the three to six months ahead outlook needs to come

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Speaker 5: in as tariff news improves and the economic data.

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Speaker 3: You can find out question lovelods.

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Speaker 2: People just email me and said, it's get impatient, Stuart Kaiser,

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Speaker 2: as simple as I can, how do you measure the

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Speaker 2: exuberance or effervescence in the market now?

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Speaker 3: Is it leverage? I mean, what's the oomph right now?

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Speaker 4: I think what people are focusing on is number one, valuation.

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Speaker 4: We've seen significant pe expansion for the S and P.

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Speaker 5: I think you all touched on it earlier. Retail participation.

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Speaker 5: These retail meme stocks are really starting to move a

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Speaker 5: lot again and that's like a bull market trade, so

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Speaker 5: we'll pay attention to that as well. But I think

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Speaker 5: number one thing is evaluation, B.

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Speaker 4: Level of the VIX. Three retail participation.

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Speaker 2: Stuart Kaiser thinking so much greatly appreciated.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Joining us right now, Brian Belski. We're talking to people

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Speaker 2: that you know got it wrong. I learned from people

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Speaker 2: that got it wrong. And I also got to talk

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Speaker 2: to a wise guy who is a research note. Same

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Speaker 2: as it ever was. Belski from Bemo Capital Markets joins us.

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Speaker 2: And you hate him, folks, because he's got a long

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Speaker 2: paragraph that Rockenhove.

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Speaker 3: Brian can't write that long. Roucan over writes it.

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Speaker 2: Then he's got two smaller paragraphs, and then he's got

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Speaker 2: like you know, bookcase, Bearcase, and it takes you.

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Speaker 3: An hour and a half to read it.

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Speaker 2: It's so rich with data, facts over feelings.

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Speaker 7: Again discuss by the way, it was Burlington Northern as

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Speaker 7: I was making it, as I grew up in Wilmer, Minnesota,

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Speaker 7: which was a train.

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Speaker 3: And believe that you always want the rear roads.

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Speaker 2: Of course, why would short lined and ready to get

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Speaker 2: exactly facts?

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Speaker 4: Here's the facts.

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Speaker 7: You know, Nick Rockanov and I have worked together now

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Speaker 7: for eighteen years and given what was going on in

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Speaker 7: the market. Tom He's like, we have this saying in

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Speaker 7: our in our group, we need an Uncle Brian comment.

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Speaker 7: And the Uncle Brian comment was Brian write a one pager.

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Speaker 7: So I took out the took out the template, wrote

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Speaker 7: that old pager. And the reason why I did that is,

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Speaker 7: you know, we have a process and a discipline that

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Speaker 7: we've had for managing money now for over twenty years

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Speaker 7: and doing this strategy gig for now. It's my thirty

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Speaker 7: sixth year and we've been blessed and fortunate to work

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Speaker 7: at a bunch of amazing firms and we were really

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Speaker 7: blessed to run eleven billion dollars at BEMO now for

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Speaker 7: thirteen years. And what we said in April when we

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Speaker 7: moved our target from sixty seven hundred and sixty one hundred,

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Speaker 7: we said.

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Speaker 4: Discretion is the better part of valor.

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Speaker 7: We can't have a target that's out there thirty five

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Speaker 7: percent willy nilly Pollyanna based on exogenous events that made

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Speaker 7: us worried about at sixty one hundred. Now, those events

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Speaker 7: we believe in terms of the signposts that we look

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Speaker 7: for changed, so we went back to our original original

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Speaker 7: target of sixty seven hundred.

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Speaker 4: We think the bull market is very much alive.

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Speaker 7: We also caution investors in the note in June saying

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Speaker 7: market targets are an academic situation. It has nothing to

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Speaker 7: do with running money. If you are basing your strategies

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Speaker 7: on a strategist market target, get out of the business.

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Speaker 7: You should be running money in terms of your process

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Speaker 7: and discipline. And what we said in April is said

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Speaker 7: we're not changing anything. We're not changing anything in terms

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Speaker 7: of our sectors in the stocks we own. That resulted,

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Speaker 7: and I'm very humble to say that that resultant in

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Speaker 7: the best quarterly performance I've ever had running money. Now,

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Speaker 7: you don't judge by just a quarter, you judge by

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Speaker 7: longer term. So we look at the last twelve months

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Speaker 7: of our the returns on our portfolios out ten of

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Speaker 7: our benchmarks, we crushed them. And the reason is is

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Speaker 7: that we stuck with these great stocks. If we like

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Speaker 7: them at ten, we like them even more at eight

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Speaker 7: and that actually paid off again. So we think the

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Speaker 7: bull market is very much alive. Doesn't mean that we're

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Speaker 7: not going to have days and weeks like looks like

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Speaker 7: we're going to be little squad she here, let's call it,

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Speaker 7: but that's all about investing financials.

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Speaker 6: That's one of the groups that people have been talking

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Speaker 6: about it for a while. How do you guys think

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Speaker 6: about financials. We have some really good numbers out of

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Speaker 6: the big banks.

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Speaker 7: Really good numbers, and we've been very resolute in terms

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Speaker 7: of our thinking and feeling on financials. We think it's

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Speaker 7: the really big and they're really small. At the end

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Speaker 7: of the day, no matter how much financial services tends

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Speaker 7: to screw up this business as alation, it's a relationship

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Speaker 7: business and that's where the small banks with beautiful balance

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Speaker 7: sheets and great cash flow and great relationships with their

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Speaker 7: customers are going to win. Paul, But I think where

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Speaker 7: people missed it is that they were too to fixate

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Speaker 7: on the negativity surrounding the big banks. I think the

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Speaker 7: big banks can We'll continue to benefit from these multi

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Speaker 7: lines of business. We've said this for three or four

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Speaker 7: years now. So whether or not it's Morgan, Stanley, Goldman, Sachs,

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Speaker 7: Bank of America, former Employer City Group, JP Morgan, you're

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Speaker 7: gonna have quarters that training is gonna do well, and

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Speaker 7: you have quarters that wealth management doing well.

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Speaker 2: Riyan Milski with US I was thunderstruck Brian by Google's

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Speaker 2: number just today.

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Speaker 3: The double digit nature of it, the across the board confidence.

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Speaker 2: Talk to people that just say, if it's too good

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Speaker 2: to be true, it's going to end. The tech thing,

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Speaker 2: the Mag ten, the Mag forty, the sixty stocks in

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Speaker 2: the Belski universe, someday it's going to end. How do

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Speaker 2: you handle that emotion?

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Speaker 7: Well, because it is emotion. It's not based on the facts.

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Speaker 7: You want to buy these companies that are masterful in

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Speaker 7: their craft, that have amazing management teams, that have great

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Speaker 7: cash flow, and have I would say binary decisions made

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Speaker 7: about them that everybody agrees on, I e. We're never

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Speaker 7: going to use search again, which is which is ridiculous.

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Speaker 7: And oh, by the way, searches up in the quarter.

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Speaker 4: We actually double.

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Speaker 7: Down on Google and we added it to our value

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Speaker 7: portfolio because we love to buy broken growth. Oh yeah,

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Speaker 7: but when the stock was down in April, we put

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Speaker 7: it in our value portfolio.

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Speaker 4: Why because it's a broken growth?

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Speaker 3: Is Apple a broken growth story?

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Speaker 5: No?

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Speaker 7: I think Apple is a cash machine. You never want

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Speaker 7: to ever bet against the US consumer. And let's put

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Speaker 7: a semi colon space and you never want that against Apple.

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Speaker 2: Well, One of the best things to come to the

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Speaker 2: crew David Tamborelli invented over at Bloomberg is a quick

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Speaker 2: use of cash at a giving company. I reviewed the

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Speaker 2: cash generation YEP of Apple yesterday.

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Speaker 3: I've said this before.

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Speaker 2: Folks, to me, it's like a nineteenth or even eighteenth

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Speaker 2: century Hong Kong trading company.

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Speaker 3: Yep. They just meant profit and they don't want to

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Speaker 3: talk about it.

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Speaker 6: So, Brian, how do we think about broad One of

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Speaker 6: the themes today we discussed with several of our guests is

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Speaker 6: just that concentration risk that's still in the broader market

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Speaker 6: here and so just kind of coming to mind because

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Speaker 6: we had such good numbers out of Google here.

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Speaker 4: How do you guys think about that?

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Speaker 8: Is it risk?

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Speaker 4: Is it just the new.

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Speaker 3: World we're in.

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Speaker 7: It's partially in the new world in but it's it's

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Speaker 7: going back to the talking head theme that we said,

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Speaker 7: same as that ever was if you go back to

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Speaker 7: nineteen ninety five ninety six, it was a concentrated market

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Speaker 7: in terms of the nifty fifty, and those nifty fifty

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Speaker 7: stocks where the big liquidity stocks like Procter and Gambill, Gillette,

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Speaker 7: Coca Cola, Pepsi. People bought those stocks because of liquidity.

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Speaker 7: They're worried about coming out of the commercial banking crisis

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Speaker 7: that you were worried about at Rauscher, and I was

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Speaker 7: worried about it, Dane back in ninety fourth. Anyway, I

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Speaker 7: do believe that this notion of broadening out was proved

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Speaker 7: by decent performance in Europe and emerging markets, and I

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Speaker 7: think that's going to follow through with finally with value

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Speaker 7: in small gap again. I think ten years from now

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Speaker 7: we're going to be kicking ourselves if we didn't known

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Speaker 7: more small cap.

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Speaker 3: When will you know to go long healthcare?

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Speaker 7: Oh, it's a great way, is a great question.

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Speaker 2: That's the Belski Recanova mechanism to say, finally get on healthcare.

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Speaker 4: We're underweight.

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Speaker 7: We've been underweighted all year, and then when people started

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Speaker 7: buying in being the year to be defensive. From a

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Speaker 7: fundamental perspective, we saw problems with the pipelines, we saw

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Speaker 7: problems with the cash flow, we saw problems with the

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Speaker 7: rhetoric in terms of the vaccines, and so we've been

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Speaker 7: focused more on Gilead, the biotechs, even Unite Healthcare.

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Speaker 4: We bought more Unite.

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Speaker 7: Healthcare because I think people made too much negative rhetoric

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Speaker 7: on that as well. So Tom, I think once we

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Speaker 7: see a broader direction and a more more signs of

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Speaker 7: broadening out, healthcare and financials are the cheapest sector. Financials

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Speaker 7: have the fundamentals. Healthcare right now could be a value trap.

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Speaker 7: We need to see more earnings come in through and

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Speaker 7: then we'll feel better about that.

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Speaker 2: You need to see quarterly sequential earnings that you're looking

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Speaker 2: at free cash flow.

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Speaker 3: We're in the income statement. You're looking in healthcare to say.

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Speaker 7: Let's go religan at earnings first, and then we're seeing

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Speaker 7: on the earnings revision side. I want to see earnings

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Speaker 7: revisions again being contrariant. I want to see earnings revisions

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Speaker 7: completely blow out and be negative. Then I'll feel better

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Speaker 7: about healthcare.

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Speaker 3: Brian Goski, thank you so much for joining the BMO

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Speaker 3: Capital Marcus too sure to visit.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

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Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Someone that does critical research at JP Morgan, working with

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Speaker 2: Bruce Keas and Michael Feroli, is out of the Booth School, Chicago,

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Speaker 2: driving all their academic work here in New York City.

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Speaker 2: We're thrilled that he could join.

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Speaker 3: Us this morning.

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Speaker 2: Michael, I got to go back X number of years

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Speaker 2: where you stopped American economics.

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Speaker 3: With the potential GDP estimate of our economy. Given the turmoil,

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Speaker 3: can JP Morgan calculate what our potential GDP is now

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Speaker 3: or with all the trade upset? And that is it

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Speaker 3: impossible to calculate?

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Speaker 8: I would say impossible.

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Speaker 9: I mean it's always going to be an estimate of

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Speaker 9: a latent variable, so you're never going to know for sure.

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Speaker 9: But right now, certainly it seems like you know, as

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Speaker 9: you know, Tom, economists like to divide their estimate of

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Speaker 9: separate theirs and to trend growth and the trend labor

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Speaker 9: supply and trend labor productivity. Labor supply is certainly downshifting

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Speaker 9: pretty notably here over the past year, just given trends

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Speaker 9: in immigration policy in the foreign born labor force.

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Speaker 8: Probably more in question is.

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Speaker 9: Productivity growth, which has shown a little bit of life

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Speaker 9: after being pretty moribun than the last expansion. You know, however,

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Speaker 9: I think maybe the case for a productivity renaissance is

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Speaker 9: perhaps a bit premature. We're seeing productivity growth since the

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Speaker 9: end of the last expansion something like one point seven

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Speaker 9: versus one point five or six prior to that.

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Speaker 2: The productivity miracle that AI promises, do you sense that

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Speaker 2: it's distributable across all of America or do the productivity

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Speaker 2: gains of AI just go to the fancy people that

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Speaker 2: has that have a fancy computer at home, like Lisa Mateo.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 8: So, first of all, one thing I would say is,

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Speaker 8: so far.

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Speaker 9: We don't think we've really seen the productivity gains in

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Speaker 9: the aggregate data right when we look across industries that

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Speaker 9: you don't really see much of a correlation between industry

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Speaker 9: productivity performance in this expansion so far and industry AI

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Speaker 9: usage intensity. So I think we're really talking about something

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Speaker 9: that's more speculative than what we see in the data.

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Speaker 9: I think, certainly, when we think speculatively, almost all the

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Speaker 9: models economic models of AI would suggest that it's going

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Speaker 9: to lead to a lower labor share of income, more

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Speaker 9: national income going to capital, and the people who own

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Speaker 9: own basically own the data centers and owned the code.

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Speaker 6: So, Michael, we had just earlier this morning time when

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Speaker 6: I were speaking with someone from the Yale Budget Lab

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Speaker 6: kind of highlighting maybe some of the economic impacts of

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Speaker 6: a tariff regime, which is going to look a lot

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Speaker 6: different than it did before President Trump took office. How

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Speaker 6: do you guys factor that into your GDP forecast, your

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Speaker 6: inflation forecasts.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, so the you know, in the near term being

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Speaker 9: the next like one to four quarters, we're really thinking

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Speaker 9: about tariffs for what they are, which is a tax,

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Speaker 9: you know, attacks of perhaps around four hundred billion dollars

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Speaker 9: that it's going to be distributed somehow between businesses and households,

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Speaker 9: and to the extent is to street more to households.

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Speaker 9: That's going to show up in higher prices. The higher

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Speaker 9: it's going to be an indirect tax via higher prices.

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Speaker 9: So we're kind of thinking right now that that four

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Speaker 9: hundred billion dollars, you know, most of it probably ends

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Speaker 9: up in higher prices rather than the lower margins. I

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Speaker 9: guess also for the near term, one thing we and

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Speaker 9: others have been watching is whether, you know, uncertainty over

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Speaker 9: trade policy is headwind to capital spending.

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Speaker 8: And that's been more of a again.

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Speaker 9: More of a forecast and anything we're seeing in the data. Perhaps,

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Speaker 9: you know, if you want to be an optimist, you

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Speaker 9: can make the case here that you know, if we

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Speaker 9: get past August one, the uncertainty may head down, and

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Speaker 9: that headwind to capex may may may turn lower as well,

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Speaker 9: you know, in the in the I guess more medium term, we,

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Speaker 9: like almost all neoclassically trained economists, tend to think that

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Speaker 9: tariffs will reduce you know, aggurate welfare because you are

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Speaker 9: going to be shifting if your may have full employment,

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Speaker 9: yes you're going to have manufacturing job grow, but you're

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Speaker 9: going to have all other jobs decline and you're going

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Speaker 9: to have higher priced manufacturing goods here in the US.

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Speaker 9: But that's something probably you have to look out maybe

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Speaker 9: at least one or two years to think about.

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Speaker 6: Given that background, Michael, how does our does that impact

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Speaker 6: the way our Federal Reserve looks at its rate policy?

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Speaker 9: Do you think, well, it's it's one of many things

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Speaker 9: that they're thinking about there. You know, as Powell and

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Speaker 9: others have said, you face a difficult trade off if

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Speaker 9: it's lower growth and higher inflation. You know, right now

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Speaker 9: we and the market are thinking that it tilts the

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Speaker 9: FED toward easier policy. Once we get past the hump

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Speaker 9: in tear off pass through, which could be you know,

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Speaker 9: in a few months, then I think you can turn

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Speaker 9: your attention to growth. But look, I would also say

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Speaker 9: that in an environment in which inflation expectations on the

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Speaker 9: household side remain high on the market side, you know

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Speaker 9: our higher, you can't be two uh you know, itchy finger,

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Speaker 9: itchy you know trigger finger here to cut rage?

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Speaker 2: Can we show a little I'm in audible here with

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Speaker 2: Michael Feroli and JP Morgan, we can do.

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Speaker 3: This, folks.

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Speaker 5: Sure.

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Speaker 3: All weekend people go, my god, Tom, you're so smart.

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Speaker 3: Just how do you keep up on economics?

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Speaker 2: I know it? Eight oh five on Friday, Farole drops

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Speaker 2: the Weekly Prospects of JP Morgan, which is invented by

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Speaker 2: Melman and Kasmin years ago, and I read it cover

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Speaker 2: to cover, so I'm smarter on the weekend, So everybody thinks,

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Speaker 2: time King, it's brilliant. It's Thursday, Michael Faroli, do you

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Speaker 2: put Weekly Prospects together today to get it ready for tomorrow.

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Speaker 9: We're working on it all week, certainly thinking about the

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Speaker 9: forecast for the week ahead.

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Speaker 8: That's a week you know, that's.

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Speaker 9: A process that starts a long time ago, and then

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Speaker 9: you know, as the data come in, we can.

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Speaker 8: When perils are on Friday, we have to hold off

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Speaker 8: longer than then.

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Speaker 2: You have to stay up and put it out at

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Speaker 2: nine pm and ruin my Friday. Michael Faroli, your chart

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Speaker 2: last week, which was just stunning, folks, is inflation adjusted

444
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:17,080
Speaker 2: consumer spending and inflation adjusted good spending. What does it symbolize,

445
00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:20,880
Speaker 2: Michael Faroli, that we flatlined December of last year.

446
00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:25,440
Speaker 8: Yeah, so that's a bit of a it's a bit

447
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:26,520
Speaker 8: of a mystery, right.

448
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:35,480
Speaker 10: Because most of the metrics of household financial performance look,

449
00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:37,359
Speaker 10: you know, looks still pretty healthy.

450
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,600
Speaker 9: Credit performance looks good. So I think it's a few

451
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:44,000
Speaker 9: things maybe you're seeing. You have had a down shift,

452
00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 9: as you mentioned in real disposable income, some of that

453
00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 9: just the slowing and overall labor market growth. You did

454
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:54,280
Speaker 9: see a bit of a drift up also in the

455
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:55,879
Speaker 9: saving right, so there may be a little bit of

456
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:58,359
Speaker 9: caution here earlier in the year, perhaps you know, some

457
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:02,120
Speaker 9: of the policy uncertainties affect in businesses, but households as well.

458
00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:04,439
Speaker 2: Michael, when you're putting this out on Friday night. You

459
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 2: and Michael Hanson like your work from home. I mean,

460
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 2: you're so gone. Is Murat Tashi? Is Murat in the

461
00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:14,440
Speaker 2: office like putting this thing out Friday night eating pizza.

462
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,720
Speaker 8: We're mostly in the office most of the week.

463
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,679
Speaker 3: I would say he got that done. Okay.

464
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 2: I'm sure mister Diamond's buying quality pizza for you there

465
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:25,320
Speaker 2: on Friday night.

466
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,119
Speaker 3: Michael Feroli, thank you as so much, folks. I can't

467
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:29,119
Speaker 3: say enough.

468
00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:33,480
Speaker 2: About what Robert Melman invented at JP Morgan, and I'm

469
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,680
Speaker 2: sure Michael Feroli and Bruce Kasman could go literally back

470
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 2: before Melman.

471
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:47,880
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

472
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:50,920
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

473
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:53,920
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

474
00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

475
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:58,120
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Terminal.

476
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 2: In every crisis, in every political moment, there's an institution

477
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:06,560
Speaker 2: that just gets the win behind them and takes off.

478
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,119
Speaker 3: It is the Budget Lab at Yale.

479
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 2: All sorts of good people there and Natasha Sarah driving

480
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:16,919
Speaker 2: the ship and we're thrilled that she could join us today. Natasha,

481
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:20,680
Speaker 2: how did you put the Budget Lab at Yale together.

482
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,159
Speaker 3: Well, you know, you came out of working for Laurence

483
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 3: Summer as you did this, you were a treasury in that.

484
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:29,480
Speaker 3: How did you piece together the Budget Lab at Yale?

485
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:32,520
Speaker 11: Well, you know, thanks so much for having me and

486
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:35,120
Speaker 11: for asking what a fun way to start the morning.

487
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 11: I worked in government alongside some of my co founders

488
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,959
Speaker 11: and colleagues the Budget Lab Martha Gimbal and Danny Yagan

489
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 11: and folks you know, well like Ernie Tadeshi. And when

490
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 11: we got out of government, what we realized was there

491
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:56,119
Speaker 11: was really this whole with respect to the ability to

492
00:22:56,240 --> 00:23:01,400
Speaker 11: do the kind of really rapid response policy analysis that

493
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 11: the Budget Lab has started to do, and also to

494
00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 11: analyze some of these like longer term economic impacts from

495
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 11: doing things like investing in children or doing tax reform,

496
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:16,520
Speaker 11: and so knowing that, we decided to try and take

497
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 11: a pass at it ourselves.

498
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:19,120
Speaker 3: And I think it's been.

499
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 11: Really, really rewarding the last year since we launched.

500
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 2: Your daily summary. Folks go to the Budget Lab at Yale.

501
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 2: Their Daily Summary is at first on a first order condition,

502
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 2: it's heartbreaking. But forget about that, Natasha, of all the

503
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 2: statistics of the public losing two three hundred dollars per

504
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:40,439
Speaker 2: household of bombing our trade back to nineteen thirty three,

505
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:44,200
Speaker 2: which is the statistic from Ernie that gets your most attention.

506
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 4: You know, what I.

507
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 11: Find incredibly compelling is something that's a little further down.

508
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 11: All those statistics are fascinating, and I think we're now

509
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:58,119
Speaker 11: up to effective terror freight based on our latest analysis

510
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 11: that includes Japan of around twenty so that's like the

511
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:05,199
Speaker 11: highest since nineteen eleven. But what I find super interesting

512
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:10,400
Speaker 11: is that we have seen in since January, the effective

513
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 11: terif rate change on some thirty five days in this administration.

514
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 11: So we are basically seeing this movement up down in

515
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:25,439
Speaker 11: this uncertainty that I think is impacting the economy in

516
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 11: real ways that you're actually starting to see. So I

517
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 11: just find looking at that graph and kind of watching

518
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 11: these movements incredibly interesting.

519
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,360
Speaker 6: So, given that we may see an effective teriff rate

520
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 6: of around a twenty percent ish, what does that mean

521
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 6: for economic growth? What does that mean for inflation?

522
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 11: Yeah, Well, based on our estimates, what we're expecting to

523
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,400
Speaker 11: see in the short run is a two percentage point

524
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:53,439
Speaker 11: increase across the board, which translates to what you were

525
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 11: describing about a two thousand plus dollar impact on higher

526
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 11: prices for households or lower nominal incomes depending on what

527
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 11: the Federal Reserve decides to do in response to this

528
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 11: new trade environment. And what you're also going to see

529
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:13,120
Speaker 11: as a result of the fact that you are going

530
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:16,120
Speaker 11: to be pushing up effect of tariff rate so substantially

531
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 11: is you're actually going to see the economy be smaller

532
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 11: in the future than it would be in the absence

533
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 11: of these tariffs. And so our estimates are that we're

534
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 11: seeing about a point eight percentage point decrease in GDP

535
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 11: over the long run as a result of some of

536
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 11: the policies that this administration is pursuing.

537
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:36,880
Speaker 6: The administration will say, Okay, there may be some short

538
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 6: term economic headwinds, but on the flip side, they're generating

539
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 6: a lot of tariff revenue.

540
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,160
Speaker 4: Can you explain that math?

541
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,360
Speaker 11: Yeah, So it's true. For what it's worth, the tariffs

542
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 11: are going to raise, based on their current rate, about

543
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 11: two point five trillion dollars over the course of the

544
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 11: next decade. And you know, given our fiscal position, which

545
00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 11: we've been able to talk about in the past, like

546
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,879
Speaker 11: raising revenue is actually something we need to do. It's important.

547
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 11: It is more important frankly today than it was a

548
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 11: few weeks ago, given the deficit busting tax and spending

549
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 11: bill that Congress just passed. But importantly, tariffs are an

550
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 11: incredibly inefficient way to raise revenue right precisely because what

551
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 11: they're doing is shrinking the economy and creating a ton

552
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 11: of distortions. And they're also being born disproportionately by people

553
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:30,919
Speaker 11: who consume significantly, So this is like the bottom forty

554
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 11: percent sees an impact on their incomes that's like three

555
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 11: times as high as the very top. So they're regressive

556
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 11: and inefficient.

557
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:41,120
Speaker 2: Natasha, thank you so much, Satasha, Sarah too short a visit.

558
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

559
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

560
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

561
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:55,399
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

562
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

563
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 2: The newspapers today really quite something. She was making edits

564
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:02,359
Speaker 2: and amendments to it.

565
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 3: I know it was a changeable. Curiously to say, what

566
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 3: was the macha you mentioned.

567
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:11,399
Speaker 12: With dirty with a dirty Macha A dirty Yes, I

568
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 12: will make one and I will put it out on

569
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:15,640
Speaker 12: Twitter so that everybody knows. Okay, yes, I will make

570
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 12: it in the pantry.

571
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 3: It's a thing, is it? Like Senka.

572
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:21,400
Speaker 4: Knows what the kids are doing.

573
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 12: It takes kind of the edge off of macha because

574
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 12: you put the espresso in with it, so it tastes

575
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 12: a little bit better, I feel.

576
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 6: But yes, because Macha by itself tastes terrible.

577
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 3: Yes, save me. This is like chasing Sandborn.

578
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 12: We need to we need to up your drink game.

579
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 9: Tom.

580
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 3: Okay.

581
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:42,920
Speaker 12: This is for sports fans because they might have another

582
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 12: option to get their fixed. So listen up. The Wall

583
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:49,680
Speaker 12: Street Journal saying NBC Universal reportedly considering launching a sports

584
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:53,399
Speaker 12: cable network could debut as early as the fall, and

585
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 12: Sorcerers saying, so the channel is going to primarily carry

586
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,120
Speaker 12: sports at are also streamed on Peacock, and they could

587
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 12: also be offered to cable and satellite distributors. It's part

588
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:04,919
Speaker 12: of the specialty packages of similar channels. But this is

589
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,920
Speaker 12: a surprise for them because you know, usually they're struggling

590
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 12: with viewers cutting the cord, you know, and they're turning

591
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,960
Speaker 12: to streaming. So it's also in the process of spinning

592
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 12: off its cable networks into that new company. That's what

593
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:19,160
Speaker 12: NBC Universal is going through now. But I mean, live

594
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 12: sports is a huge business and you see it.

595
00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 3: All the time.

596
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 6: I think what's happening here is they this is the

597
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 6: first year of a huge NBA contract, and they can't

598
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:31,439
Speaker 6: make money solely on the peacock streaming. They have to

599
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 6: have some type of cable offering despite the fact that

600
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 6: people are cutting the cord, so they have to have

601
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 6: this NBA product on this many platforms money.

602
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 3: Can come in.

603
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 2: I mean, it's a rumor speculation New York Post three

604
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 2: pm yesterday, mister Bezos is possibly as a passing interest

605
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 2: in the Death Stars CNBC. Okay, fine, but Paul, is

606
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 2: this the future where these ginormous month like Bezos could

607
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 2: to sell a boat and buy CNBC?

608
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 3: Is this what we're talking about where megabucks people go

609
00:29:01,480 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 3: out and buy.

610
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 6: These properties that potentially and that would be a little

611
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 6: problematic because you have to talk about the editorial independence

612
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 6: of some of these things.

613
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 4: So that's a concern for a lot of people.

614
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 2: And the great Catherine Rample leaving the Washington Post yesterday.

615
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:17,560
Speaker 3: That was a bombshell. Excuse me, Lisa, I interrupt.

616
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 12: That's okay, it's okay, Okay. The next one, I got

617
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 12: an email this morning from a regular guest here on

618
00:29:23,600 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 12: the show. I cannot reveal my sources, okay, but said it.

619
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 3: Was a great morning.

620
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 11: This is.

621
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 12: This is a good one because I can relate. Okay,

622
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 12: if people don't see when I first come in here

623
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 12: to the show in the morning, I'm carrying my water,

624
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 12: I've got my phone, I've got my yoga okay, and

625
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 12: I've got my lipstick, and I have my headphones, and

626
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 12: I walk in here like a mad woman.

627
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 4: Okay.

628
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 12: But this is actually a trend. Okay. So the New

629
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 12: York Times has this article. You got to check it out.

630
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 12: It's called the claw Grip. Okay. Women are posting on

631
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 12: social media how many items they can carry at once.

632
00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 12: The record is fifteen. I believe this. This is despite

633
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 12: you know, bigger bags or the trend.

634
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 7: Right.

635
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 12: So the theory behind it, there is one is that

636
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:07,959
Speaker 12: it's a reaction because you know, women feel that they

637
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 12: don't have the functional pockets like men do, so they're

638
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 12: kind of sounding off against this. But now you have

639
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 12: these products that are coming out like a phone case

640
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 12: by road that includes a lipstick holder.

641
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 3: Genius genius is cleared, Yeah, weightless. Don't you just get

642
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 3: a bigger bag? I can see you with the traders,

643
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 3: Joe Toad.

644
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 12: I mean, but then I have to like haul this

645
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 12: thing around and search through it to try and find

646
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 12: what I want. That's things get lost in the bag.

647
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 12: So I just carry You should see.

648
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 4: Me when I tick?

649
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 3: Can we brock it up?

650
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 2: Can we get one of the interns to help miss

651
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 2: Matteo in the morning so that she's lined up with

652
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 2: a gluten free lipstick and all the rest of it

653
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 2: before the show starts.

654
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 3: Get twenty seconds? Twenty seconds?

655
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 12: Okay, forget about the hot summer beach travel. The new

656
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 12: thing is cool locations. So this is what USA Today

657
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 12: is saying. They're saying people are tired of the crowded,

658
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 12: hot places and they want to go to cooler places.

659
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 4: That are less cracky.

660
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 3: You're a huge deal.

661
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 12: Yes, yes, yes, And even here they're talking about western

662
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 12: North Carolina. Right head to the Appalachian Mountains Mount Mitchell. Okay,

663
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 12: you gotta go to hiking smoking New England, not Cape Cod,

664
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 12: but New Hampshire's Mount Washington Valley. Beautiful. You gotta check

665
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 12: it out. Jersey Bretton Woods Now Northern Michigan.

666
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 4: Yes, I've heard about that r City, Michigan.

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00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 12: You gotta go over there to get the nice cool

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00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 12: breeze off the cooler water.

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00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 2: So thank you, Lisa, greatly appreciate. It's the Newspapers with

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00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:41,120
Speaker 2: Lisa Matteo.

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00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

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00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each

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00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 1: weekday seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com,

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00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.

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00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:00,960
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00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,920
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