1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 3 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 4 00:00:22,360 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 5 00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 1: us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 2: Carosh Life is chief market strategist BEMO Private Wealth, and 7 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 2: I can't say enough about the elegance of her. Note 8 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:40,240 Speaker 2: she's got decades of experience just thinking through where we are. 9 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:44,360 Speaker 2: You have a lovely phrase, Carol, that just captures the 10 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 2: moment investors remain anxious? Do we have to be anxious 11 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 2: to go higher? 12 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:52,760 Speaker 3: Well? 13 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 4: I think definitely. That wall of worry is typically what 14 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 4: we've seen through this whole bull market that we've been, 15 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 4: whether you peggett the shorter term one from April on 16 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 4: A or the longer term one that really you can 17 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 4: date it back to almost the pandemic on A or 18 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:15,120 Speaker 4: especially after the twenty twenty two pullback in there more rightfully, 19 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 4: but still that grinding higher where investors are always have 20 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:22,959 Speaker 4: this long list of things they worry about, and when 21 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:24,959 Speaker 4: you get markets like we have the last few days, 22 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 4: they take all those things dump them out on the 23 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 4: floor and obsess about all of them. 24 00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:30,919 Speaker 3: In the short run, you're lucky. 25 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:33,760 Speaker 2: You get to live with Ian Lingoln, who's really, really 26 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 2: better than good. 27 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 3: At the Bank of Montreal. 28 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:40,319 Speaker 2: And I look this morning at the inflation adjusted interest 29 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 2: rate trend, real interest rates, bank credit analyst again out 30 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 2: of Montreal. 31 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:48,200 Speaker 3: What is it about Montanel health? They're pretty good? Maybe 32 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 3: MEE can solve the Canadians problems, Carol. 33 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 2: I look at the real interest rate and bank credit 34 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,960 Speaker 2: analyst says this is a critical driver, and they're optimistic 35 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 2: because they see real rates coming in. 36 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 4: Do you agree, Well, I'm not sure if real rates 37 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 4: come in or not. There's a lot of things to 38 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:10,519 Speaker 4: sort through, and granted we'll get a lot. We're already 39 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 4: starting to see some of the trickle of those government statistics. Noll. 40 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 4: That'll help us see that. And I think the big 41 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:20,040 Speaker 4: lynch pin here is everyone's trying to figure out will 42 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 4: tearf impacts come through? What does that do? As it inflationary? 43 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 4: Is it deflationary? I having all sorts of conversations around that, 44 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,919 Speaker 4: but it really is important to see where that levels out. 45 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 4: But I think the important thing also is to realize 46 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 4: that we're not we need to resist the urge to 47 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 4: anchor to the last ten or twenty years where those 48 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:46,040 Speaker 4: real rates were, and anchor instead to that pre zero 49 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 4: or zero interest rate negative interest rate environment that we 50 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:50,639 Speaker 4: were in that we all got so. 51 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 3: Used to, Carol. 52 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 5: We're going to hear from Nvidia their results after the 53 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 5: close tonight, once again bringing into focus kind of this 54 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 5: AI trade and its impact on the overall market here, Carol, 55 00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 5: are you concerned as some people are, that there's an 56 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:07,240 Speaker 5: AI bubble that may be kind of inflating this market 57 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 5: or over inflating this market. 58 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 4: I think there's a concentration definitely in the industries and 59 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 4: in representation, and probably in some of the contributions to GDP, 60 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 4: But we think you're in the really ear early innings. 61 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 4: And it's also really important to understand that the vast 62 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 4: majority of this has been funded out of cash flow 63 00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:33,680 Speaker 4: for big, legitimate companies. And when you actually think back, 64 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 4: the names that we're still talking about that are able 65 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 4: to grow revenues and earnings double digits and with double 66 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 4: digit marge and some of those names are the ones 67 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 4: that were around during the ninety five to two thousand 68 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 4: run up, which is pretty unheard of in this industry, 69 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 4: and so we think you're early on yet where there's 70 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 4: a long list of things we're watching as everyone else 71 00:03:53,680 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 4: is in terms of the financing and that. But overall, 72 00:03:57,000 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 4: the leverage the valuations are lower than the street reception 73 00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:05,000 Speaker 4: is because of how the earnings. 74 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 6: It been along. 75 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 3: Carol, I won't found a question. I'm confused. Where are 76 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 3: we on cash? 77 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 2: Like Bank of America had some noe doubt saying investors' 78 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 2: institutional investors are low cash or fully engaged in the market. 79 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 2: Sweeney tells me here there's trillions of dollars of cash 80 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 2: on the sidelines. Where are we in cash? Is there 81 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 2: a lot of cash out there? 82 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:29,600 Speaker 4: I think there's cash, there's liquidity, and there's also it's 83 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 4: not necessarily an over amount of cash, but this is 84 00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 4: the time of the year people start bringing bonuses in 85 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 4: and things like that for our individual investors, which is 86 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 4: where the bulk of my focus is. And there's been 87 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 4: cash that got sidelined. Every time you've had to pull back, 88 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:47,800 Speaker 4: you for some people that have rearranged and asset allocated 89 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:50,280 Speaker 4: out of it, looking for an opportunity to get back in, 90 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 4: which is where you've got some support underneath it all 91 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 4: thank you. 92 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 2: Are we less anxious after talking to counsel? I think 93 00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 2: so cashally, thank you so much. With BEMO Private Wealth 94 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:03,839 Speaker 2: Bank of Montreal Private. Well, stay with us. More from 95 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 96 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:17,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 97 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,599 Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 98 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, 99 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 100 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,840 Speaker 2: The way we roll here is we do audibles when 101 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 2: they are appropriate and within with doctor Thinwat darkens the door. 102 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:36,440 Speaker 3: Win Thin, chief economist. 103 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:39,039 Speaker 2: Bank in NASA, just iconic on the street with his 104 00:05:39,120 --> 00:05:42,840 Speaker 2: academics out of Colombia. And we have the Prime Minister 105 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:46,720 Speaker 2: of Singapore, the Republic of Singapore where this earlier you 106 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:50,679 Speaker 2: gotta do an audible. Win Thin is from will Always 107 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 2: for me be Burma. It's twelve thirteen hundred miles directly 108 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:58,159 Speaker 2: north of Singapore up through Malaysia, up the west coast 109 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 2: of Thailand. Win Thin to you're me and Mahr as well. 110 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:05,839 Speaker 2: How alone does Singapore feel in Southeast Asia? 111 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 3: I mean, do they feel discreet and separate? Or is 112 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:10,599 Speaker 3: there a true alliance? 113 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:13,360 Speaker 7: You know, I believe they are are really part of 114 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 7: that that asy On alliance. He talked a lot about 115 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:18,679 Speaker 7: this absolutely, and you know, as the US steps back, 116 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 7: you know that these sort of regional agreements and organizations 117 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 7: really become more important. And so I think of anything 118 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 7: this is you know, I think the US, by pulling back, 119 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 7: is sort of sort of strengthen these institutional frameworks that 120 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:30,919 Speaker 7: already in place. 121 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 2: One question, then we have projected four military bases in 122 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:39,039 Speaker 2: the Philippines. When we project military basis to the Philippines, 123 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 2: I think Paul John Mickletoy's first question was on Taiwan 124 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 2: to Prime Minister one, are we projecting four military bases 125 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 2: to Singapore as well? When we plant them in the Philippines. 126 00:06:51,240 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 7: I would say that Singapore I think prize itself on 127 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:56,600 Speaker 7: being somewhat neutral. You know, it's competed in the US. 128 00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:00,720 Speaker 7: I love this, is it the Switzerland. That's a great 129 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:01,600 Speaker 7: that's a great analogy. 130 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 8: You know. 131 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 7: As and as Hong Kong has sort of fallen more 132 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 7: and more under the sort of the mainland oversight, I 133 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:10,679 Speaker 7: think Singapore has really had an opportunity to really stand 134 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 7: out as sort of this a bastion of free free capitalism, 135 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:15,120 Speaker 7: free speech, et cetera. 136 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 3: Thank you? Was that a good, honesto? 137 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 6: Very good? 138 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 3: We'll do it again sometypes. All right, Paul would save 139 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 3: the interviews. 140 00:07:21,800 --> 00:07:23,880 Speaker 5: You economists have to go back work tomorrow. I remember 141 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 5: we had a lot of data coming out tomorrow. How 142 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 5: are you going to approach it in terms of prioritizing 143 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 5: what's the most important, the quality of the data. How 144 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 5: are you going to think about it? 145 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 7: Absolutely well, the theme most reports are going to be 146 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 7: the jobs, jobs and jobs. So the Fed has could 147 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:41,120 Speaker 7: potentially I think like we have three job supports in 148 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 7: hand before the December ninth, tenth f YC. We've got 149 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 7: the September, and we look at my calend here, we 150 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 7: have the September tomorrow, and I think the November will 151 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 7: come out on time on December fifth, and I'm just 152 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 7: assuming that the October would come somewhere come in between. 153 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 6: The foll goes. Well, so what am I looking for? 154 00:07:57,880 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 3: Well? 155 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 7: Look it really all the ends hiliary signs alternative data. 156 00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 7: There are cracks in the labor market. We may get 157 00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 7: one or two outliers, but I think the trend is there. 158 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 7: You know, ADP NFP don't always line up but ADP 159 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 7: does get the trend, and the trend is really one 160 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:13,360 Speaker 7: of weakness. So that's why, you know, I've been kind 161 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:15,320 Speaker 7: of being this drum for a while. I think one 162 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:17,120 Speaker 7: of the things that markets have been happy about this 163 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:19,280 Speaker 7: last few weeks is like no news is good news, 164 00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:22,240 Speaker 7: and people were claiming for data, and it's kind of like, 165 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 7: careful what you ask for, because I think we're gonna 166 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 7: get some weak data coming down the pipeline. 167 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 5: So on the inflation front, you know, we haven't really 168 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:33,359 Speaker 5: seen it, at least to the extent that some pessimists 169 00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 5: out there. I thought we'd see it teriff induced inflation. 170 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:37,199 Speaker 5: We haven't seen that per se. 171 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:38,960 Speaker 6: Is it just a question of. 172 00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:41,480 Speaker 5: Timing or in fact, have as Corporate America kind of 173 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 5: ingested all that into their margins. 174 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:44,240 Speaker 6: I was at pause all above. 175 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:46,400 Speaker 7: We know that a lot of the companies were eating 176 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 7: it until the uncertainty clear it up. 177 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:51,320 Speaker 6: So there's been some creeping into the numbers. 178 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 7: If you look at the year to date, the three 179 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:57,439 Speaker 7: biggest I believe gainers and sort of goods prices are autos, apparel, 180 00:08:57,800 --> 00:09:00,200 Speaker 7: and alcohol. So these are you know, three big that 181 00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 7: we import a lot of and you know in the 182 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:02,199 Speaker 7: sense are. 183 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 6: All quite to me quite necessities. 184 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:04,960 Speaker 3: Yep. 185 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 6: So given that backdrop, here is it. 186 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 5: I guess the FED and you look at the work function, 187 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 5: it's the market has only put about a forty five 188 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 5: percent probability that they cut rates here in December, and 189 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:17,679 Speaker 5: that's down from nearly one hundred percent. You know several 190 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:18,200 Speaker 5: weeks ago. 191 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 7: How do you think that the FED will go, Paul, 192 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:23,440 Speaker 7: I think that's in reaction to we had a slew 193 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 7: of hawkish fit comments out in the last week and 194 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 7: a half. 195 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 6: I think we get one or two. 196 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:30,440 Speaker 7: I'd say we get one bad job from and that 197 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:33,079 Speaker 7: those odds go right back to one hundred percent. You know, 198 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 7: despite all the talk of the hawks, I think that 199 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:36,439 Speaker 7: the focus is really on the jobs on. 200 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:39,120 Speaker 6: The labor market, not the inflation. 201 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 2: Wrinthin with this Chief Econorements of Bank of DA. So 202 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 2: always say good morning to all of you across the 203 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 2: nation the way you listen to us as you awake, 204 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 2: thank you for your commitment in the early mornings on YouTube, 205 00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:51,680 Speaker 2: subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. 206 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:54,440 Speaker 3: I got eight ways to go here, but you know 207 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:56,440 Speaker 3: I'm going to get on Tom No. I got like 208 00:09:56,520 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 3: you know, I get there's like with you, doctor Sinn. 209 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 3: There's like always just eight ways to go. 210 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:05,679 Speaker 2: Daval Josie over at Bank Credit Analysts has an absolute 211 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 2: brilliant note doubt this morning, and he basically says, what 212 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 2: you just said, we're going to get some economic data. 213 00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 2: We're going to see a pivot on the December call. 214 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 2: What will the markets do if we see that. He's 215 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:23,080 Speaker 2: looking at the short term real interest rate and he says, 216 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:26,640 Speaker 2: we're ready for a huge pop in the markets if 217 00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 2: we get the confidence of a December rake. 218 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:30,080 Speaker 3: Do you buy that? Yeah? 219 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:33,240 Speaker 7: I do think the market is just salvating for some 220 00:10:33,520 --> 00:10:35,640 Speaker 7: further signs of easy again, you know, some hawkish comments 221 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:37,600 Speaker 7: all of a sudden, The market's kind of you know, 222 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 7: up in arms. But you know it's a good news bagage. Yes, 223 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 7: we're getting some bad news on the economic front. I 224 00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:43,480 Speaker 7: don't look for a recession. I think we're just getting 225 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 7: some cracks that are growing, nothing that some fetties and 226 00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 7: can't fix. So to me, a FED easing would be 227 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:51,440 Speaker 7: a win win for the for the equity markets. Uh, 228 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:53,559 Speaker 7: this question we're seeing now is I think healthy. You 229 00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:56,320 Speaker 7: know it's been you know, obviously on a tear, those 230 00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 7: healthy skepticism is I think good for the markets, but 231 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:00,040 Speaker 7: the fundament. 232 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:01,080 Speaker 6: Us stories it main solid. 233 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 7: I do think the FED is will he well, sorry, 234 00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 7: we'll cut more than market expecting. But you know it's 235 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:09,319 Speaker 7: all been found on the data, and you know we've 236 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 7: been flying blind for the last you know, five six weeks. 237 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 2: This is too much, Paul. I mean they have Wind 238 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:17,720 Speaker 2: Thin and Man Deep singing the same studios. The academics 239 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:20,520 Speaker 2: here have you ever met no, I guess pleasure too 240 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 2: wonderful to have Man Deep sing of Bloomberg intelligence. 241 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 6: And I've never mentioned let's do a flip flip on this. 242 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:29,640 Speaker 3: How do you digest Man Deep Sing's world of AI? 243 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 6: I will say this is from a top down macro stampoint. 244 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:38,439 Speaker 7: I think the investment in AI is certainly sort of 245 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 7: I think papering over sort of what I think of 246 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:43,079 Speaker 7: cracks in the consumer in the labor market. 247 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:44,439 Speaker 6: So we're getting very unbalanced. 248 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 7: If you look at the headline, we're going somewhere two 249 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 7: and a half fe percent in GDP, but it's very unbalanced. 250 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 6: I think mix. I'd like to see the consumer feeling 251 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 6: a little bit better. 252 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:56,280 Speaker 7: You know, we've seen all Consteamer sentiment numbers and all 253 00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:58,880 Speaker 7: that but you know, I think I'm really not a question. 254 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 7: I think you always get asked us, well where AI really, 255 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:02,080 Speaker 7: how do you monetize it? 256 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 2: Is? 257 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:03,679 Speaker 6: It really is also investment going to pay off? 258 00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:06,959 Speaker 2: That's my biggest question when the interview, Now, how some 259 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:10,440 Speaker 2: of here the economics when it fed GDP now is 260 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:15,479 Speaker 2: four percent. There's no one listening or watching this program 261 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:17,599 Speaker 2: who thinks it's a four percent economy? 262 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 3: Is your world screwing. 263 00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 2: Up our data? Where we have a boob American economy? 264 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:24,080 Speaker 2: But it's a fiction. 265 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:25,719 Speaker 3: Well, all this. 266 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 8: Capex is adding to the GDP. I mean, when you 267 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 8: think about what the hyperscalers are doing in terms of 268 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 8: putting their free cash flow in the form of CAPEX investments. 269 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 3: Can you get closer to the mic? Is this your 270 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:40,080 Speaker 3: first time in radio? 271 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:46,000 Speaker 8: I mean, so, I don't think you know there is 272 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:50,440 Speaker 8: a reason to question the GDP number because it's driven 273 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:55,000 Speaker 8: by capex, simply because everyone sees the potential when it 274 00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:58,440 Speaker 8: comes to these AI investments they are making and the 275 00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 8: use cases are showing up. So do my mind, Yes, 276 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 8: there's a big up front investment, but actually that's helping 277 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:06,240 Speaker 8: the DDP print does well. 278 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:08,160 Speaker 3: To your point, look is Paul, you got to get 279 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 3: us back on the rails. Paul, help us out here. 280 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 2: Retail sales September November twenty five, Oh good, two days before. 281 00:13:14,440 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 3: Things come ounces. 282 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:16,679 Speaker 5: Okay, I'm just going to see the retail sales will 283 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:17,839 Speaker 5: come out to September. 284 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 6: They'll come out in November twenty fifth. 285 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:21,560 Speaker 5: So when one of the things about AI that's just 286 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:24,679 Speaker 5: starting to creep into the discussion is particular to we 287 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 5: see some layoffs, is will AI be a net negative 288 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:33,000 Speaker 5: for employment. I'm of the opinion, totally uneducated opinion, that yes, 289 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 5: it will, that. 290 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 6: AI will either take jobs or reduce job growth. How 291 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:38,200 Speaker 6: do you get Yeah, I know. 292 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:41,079 Speaker 7: I'm with you, Paul. It will sortainly make people more productive. 293 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 7: But I can't see how. You just see all these 294 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:46,080 Speaker 7: stories about college. We've seen college graduates from top notch 295 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:49,839 Speaker 7: schools unable to find jobs. It's hard for me to 296 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 7: believe that that a I will be a net job creator. 297 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:54,600 Speaker 7: I'm with you, and I'm usually not very pessimistic, but 298 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 7: I just look around and just just see the story 299 00:13:57,400 --> 00:14:01,559 Speaker 7: and the Times about the tech tech majors who can't 300 00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:04,160 Speaker 7: fine job. I mean, it's all the entry level jobs 301 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:06,079 Speaker 7: being taken by AI. Believe that's that's the story. 302 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:07,319 Speaker 6: Anyway, I got ducky bumps. 303 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 2: This is great ladies and gentlemen worldwide and across America, 304 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 2: men deep sing and win thin with this year before 305 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:17,599 Speaker 2: this in Nvidia report today, mandep it's just so important. 306 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:20,600 Speaker 2: The theme that Paul and I have is like clothing 307 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 2: in the Carolina as a generation ago, we didn't do 308 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 2: the bargain of retraining people. If we have a man 309 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:31,920 Speaker 2: deep sing AI world, in Vidia, in Vidia, in Vidia, 310 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 2: do we have to retrain people? We broke that bargain 311 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 2: forty years ago. Are we going to break that bargain 312 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 2: in your technology again? I mean in the worldolph tech. 313 00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 8: I would argue, you know, you have been constantly retraining people. 314 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:50,280 Speaker 8: If you think of a knowledge worker, you know, using software, 315 00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:54,040 Speaker 8: whether it's Excel or any other type of productivity software. 316 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:57,720 Speaker 8: The number of features that keep coming which you have 317 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 8: to train yourself on to be more productive. That's been 318 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:04,480 Speaker 8: the constant theme over the last thirty forty years. What's 319 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 8: changed now is some of this productivity software is going 320 00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 8: to change, and the tools are going to change in 321 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 8: a profound way in terms of AI agents or some 322 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 8: of the things that get thrown around, but essentially it's 323 00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 8: aimed at using more data. That's what the tools do, 324 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 8: and you know, doing probably deeper work in terms of 325 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 8: if there is a pattern in terms of how the 326 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 8: work can be done, then AI can probably do it 327 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 8: more efficiently. So it's more creative work, more you know, 328 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:40,360 Speaker 8: use of tools. But and I think moving up the 329 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 8: curve in terms of a knowledge worker. That's the kind 330 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 8: of the new norm. 331 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 5: I just think of the first couple of years of 332 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 5: my investment banking career. 333 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 6: Can entirely be done by it. 334 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 5: Yeah, doing spreadsheets, pitchbooks, you know, editory is that statement? 335 00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 2: Young id types they're like outmoaded right now. 336 00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 8: I would echo that centem as well. You don't need 337 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:04,800 Speaker 8: as many people in terms of creating a pitch book 338 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:08,200 Speaker 8: or you know, an IPO document and how you were 339 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 8: capturing the data. That's where you know, you can do 340 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 8: things a lot more efficiently. 341 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:17,360 Speaker 7: But you'll cost every industry though, accounting, coding, all it's across. 342 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 7: That's why it's so I think the old time is likely. 343 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:23,880 Speaker 7: It's so disconcerting you're an nobile that oh many many 344 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:25,000 Speaker 7: years ago I came an old time. 345 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:28,120 Speaker 5: Sorry, how about the other side at that point, do 346 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:32,520 Speaker 5: you think it over the longer term, AI can make 347 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 5: this economy more productive? 348 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 7: That's that's that's what That's the carrot that's dangling out there. 349 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:39,240 Speaker 6: We got a bunch of sticks to deal with first, right, 350 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 6: John from. 351 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 2: Singapore calls it and says, talk to man deep about 352 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 2: in video. 353 00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 3: Doctorson sit on your hands for all. We got to 354 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 3: get some business selling. 355 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 6: You gotta go with the demand out on LinkedIn. 356 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 2: James Manka x mackenzie now over at Google launches Gemini three. 357 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:57,560 Speaker 2: What does Gemini three mean to in video? What does 358 00:16:57,600 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 2: Gemini three mean in your world? 359 00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 8: Actually, Gemini three is quite negative for Nvidia in the 360 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:08,440 Speaker 8: sense that the model was entirely trained on Google's own chips. 361 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:12,880 Speaker 8: So so far Nvidia has had a virtual monopoly for 362 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:15,359 Speaker 8: training these large an mid models. So there it's open 363 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 8: AI anthropic meta any of the frontier llms. Now Google 364 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:24,520 Speaker 8: has shown they did not have to use any Nvidia 365 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 8: chips for the latest version of their Gemini, So from 366 00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 8: that perspective, I do think it's a negative. But we're 367 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 8: still in that supply demand mismatch when it comes to 368 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 8: these accelerator chips that Nvidia still has a lot of 369 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:38,159 Speaker 8: customers that it can sell to. 370 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:38,680 Speaker 3: Is there an. 371 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:42,040 Speaker 2: Income statement line item or a ratio at four thirty 372 00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 2: this afternoon, whatever that you're focused on. 373 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 8: Oh, absolutely, the guidance for next quarter. I mean, we 374 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:51,359 Speaker 8: know China has been a factor in terms of the 375 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:54,399 Speaker 8: incremental revenue, and you know the fact that they haven't 376 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:57,160 Speaker 8: been able to sell in that market. So what are 377 00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 8: they going to guide to, you know, assuming no China 378 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:04,520 Speaker 8: revenue and just the Gigawat data center build out. That's 379 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:07,240 Speaker 8: the big metric that everyone is focused on. How many 380 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:12,040 Speaker 8: gigawat data centers? How many can we build next year 381 00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:14,200 Speaker 8: through twenty thirty That's the key metric. 382 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:18,879 Speaker 9: John wants one more question on videos from Singapore, So 383 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:21,560 Speaker 9: talk to us about just this is gonna be a 384 00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 9: clean quarter visa via China guides, Right, So this number 385 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 9: they really. 386 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:28,360 Speaker 6: Do have to beate and raised, don't they. 387 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:29,720 Speaker 3: And which they probably will. 388 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 8: The key metric for me is gross margins because nvidious 389 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:37,359 Speaker 8: gross margins actually went down over the past two quarters, 390 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:39,919 Speaker 8: and they guide it to gross margins going back up 391 00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:43,520 Speaker 8: to mid seventy percent. That is predicated on their newest 392 00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:47,280 Speaker 8: architecture Blackwell and then going forward, Rubin so what they're 393 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:49,920 Speaker 8: saying is they will command a premium pricing for the 394 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:53,120 Speaker 8: latest architecture, which will drive up the gross margins. So 395 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:55,360 Speaker 8: to me, they're able to keep that guide. I think 396 00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:56,919 Speaker 8: that will be positive for this. 397 00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 2: The former vice chairman of the FED, thank you Richard 398 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 2: Claiter for listening this morning. 399 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 3: He says, get back to Columbia economics. That's what we're 400 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:05,119 Speaker 3: going to do right now. 401 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 2: Doctor Finn, I look at this, and folks, I can't 402 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:13,320 Speaker 2: say this enough. After the Prime Minister of Singapore, all 403 00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:16,679 Speaker 2: the internet, Jeff you today out of the LSC and 404 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:18,920 Speaker 2: all I just want the question I'm going to ask, 405 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:24,640 Speaker 2: is so critically important? This goes back to Mundell. Keed 406 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:28,680 Speaker 2: Rogoff would say, this goes back to Mundell. Jacob Frankel 407 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 2: would say, this goes back to mundal. How do you 408 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:37,440 Speaker 2: use currency now to judge this modern system in including 409 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 2: man deep system. How do you use foreign exchange that 410 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:41,840 Speaker 2: you learned at Columbia? 411 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 6: Sure? Well, first of all, you know, doctor Clared is 412 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:45,920 Speaker 6: very very well respected. 413 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:49,880 Speaker 7: We sort of just overlapped, never took a class with him, 414 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:52,520 Speaker 7: but he's very well respected and nice to know that 415 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:54,760 Speaker 7: he nice to hear that he listens to the show. 416 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:56,199 Speaker 6: I said, goody audience to have. 417 00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 7: So, you know, currency me act as to me, is 418 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:05,200 Speaker 7: really sort of the arbiter of what's good and bad. 419 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 7: It's sort of the shock absorber. It's the the asset 420 00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:09,720 Speaker 7: class that really I think speaks to you know, what 421 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:10,359 Speaker 7: the country is. 422 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:13,000 Speaker 6: Doing right or doing wrong. We've moved away. 423 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 7: From a system of fixed exchange rates under which uh 424 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:20,200 Speaker 7: doctor Mandel Mandel lived, to a freely floating one. I'm 425 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:21,480 Speaker 7: not a fan or page. I think we are in 426 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:27,359 Speaker 7: this uh a obviously growing period of growing capital flows 427 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:31,240 Speaker 7: where exchange rates really become really the most important asset 428 00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:32,760 Speaker 7: classes in my mind, because we. 429 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,720 Speaker 2: Got to go here man Deep Singh's world of American 430 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 2: exceptionalism and technology. 431 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:41,880 Speaker 3: Do you bring that right over to a resilient US dollar. 432 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:42,960 Speaker 6: Sure, that's part of it. 433 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:44,879 Speaker 7: You know, for a while it was the buy America 434 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:47,199 Speaker 7: right it was, and that's back at the beginning of 435 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,399 Speaker 7: this year. The problem that we ran into is that 436 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 7: we have an administration that has especially once a weeker 437 00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 7: dollar and we've talked about this week of dollar is 438 00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 7: part of this whole scheme to onshore manufacturing, uh, you know, 439 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 7: make export manufactured exports competitor. 440 00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 6: But you know, it's a game change. We haven't seen 441 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:04,120 Speaker 6: this week. 442 00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 7: We haven't seen a call for a weaker currency since 443 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 7: Lloyd Benson was Treasury Secretary, so we're going back decades. 444 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,359 Speaker 6: So it's sort of it's definitely a. 445 00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 7: Clash of Pross Yes and the markets. 446 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:17,760 Speaker 6: It's me. 447 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 7: The market's always right. The market will decide who's right 448 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:23,040 Speaker 7: on this. I think the dollars probably in the weekend. 449 00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:26,360 Speaker 7: Ten seconds many in vidio today, thumb up, thumb down? 450 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:27,040 Speaker 3: What do you think? 451 00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:29,440 Speaker 8: Oh, it has to be thumb up because the capex 452 00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:33,159 Speaker 8: numbers have gone up for next year and every hyperscaler 453 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:36,160 Speaker 8: is guiding to more investments for twenty twenty six, so 454 00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 8: a lot of that will trickle down to in radio. 455 00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:42,359 Speaker 2: When we invented this show, Paul, this is what it's about. 456 00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:44,800 Speaker 2: Shot out of the Blue, Mandy's. 457 00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 3: Singing, Win thing Together. Stay with us. 458 00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:56,880 Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 459 00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:01,119 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen each weekday starting 460 00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 1: at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with 461 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:07,399 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on 462 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:11,160 Speaker 1: Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say 463 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:13,480 Speaker 1: Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 464 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,600 Speaker 2: She's out of the University of John bon Jovi, with 465 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:21,040 Speaker 2: partsment from Rutgers and Seaton Hall University. Scott Diamond is 466 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:24,680 Speaker 2: a grizzled pro at Golden Sachs Golben Sachs Asset Management. 467 00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:26,640 Speaker 3: It's a muni bond fixed income team. 468 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,320 Speaker 2: And what I love Scott about what you do is 469 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:33,480 Speaker 2: you've got trader experience. It's not some sixty thousand foot 470 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:37,399 Speaker 2: you know, well, LaGuardia has these cash flows, forget about it. 471 00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:40,160 Speaker 2: It's about not losing money on the trading desk. What's 472 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:45,200 Speaker 2: the number one mistake individuals make in buying and selling munis? 473 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:48,359 Speaker 10: They tend to sell at the wrong time, don't they. 474 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,480 Speaker 10: But that's okay. As a portfolio manager, as a trader, 475 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,919 Speaker 10: keep those roles combined. It allows you to stay in 476 00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 10: touch with the market. It's an over the phone markets 477 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 10: and over the Bloomberg chat market. A lot of things 478 00:23:03,359 --> 00:23:05,800 Speaker 10: going on, and I think the way you framed it 479 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,760 Speaker 10: is right, Tom. I can't be sitting in an office 480 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:11,440 Speaker 10: and afraid I'm missing some of that back and forth, 481 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,159 Speaker 10: sit on the trading desk in the trenches. Combine the 482 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:18,480 Speaker 10: portfolio manager with the trader role, and that allows you 483 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:20,200 Speaker 10: to respond as the market changes. 484 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 2: What is the most efficient package given total return to 485 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:28,680 Speaker 2: acquire municipal bonds? Don't tell me it's individual paper. There's 486 00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 2: got to be a more efficient way. 487 00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:30,880 Speaker 3: To do this. 488 00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,479 Speaker 10: Well, a lot of our clients they like the individual bonds. 489 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:38,359 Speaker 10: That's fine, it works for them. But historically you've had 490 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 10: mutual funds. More recently, I just heard the prior segment ETFs. 491 00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,920 Speaker 10: Who would have thought ETFs come to the municipal bond market, right? 492 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,640 Speaker 10: I feel like this is Fred Flintstone meeting the Jetsons. 493 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,400 Speaker 10: We have a market that has tens of thousands of issuers. 494 00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 10: It's difficult to think of that in an active exchange 495 00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 10: traded fund, but we're there. If you look at the 496 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:04,119 Speaker 10: flows into the industry so far year to date, plenty 497 00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 10: of demand, a lot of it's going to ETFs, and importantly, 498 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,760 Speaker 10: a lot of it's going to active ETFs, and I 499 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,359 Speaker 10: think that's a reflection of just how fragmented our market 500 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:14,080 Speaker 10: is and where the opportunities lie. 501 00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,200 Speaker 5: I'm just looking at the GO function on the Bloomberg 502 00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:20,560 Speaker 5: terminal across the board, municipal bonds have done, putting in 503 00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:23,879 Speaker 5: some solid return so far for investors. Talk about how 504 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:25,200 Speaker 5: the market's performed this year. 505 00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:28,639 Speaker 10: It's had a lot to deal with. As you all know, 506 00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,920 Speaker 10: markets have had a lot to deal with. I don't 507 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,320 Speaker 10: know how many times I've heard the phrase it's been 508 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 10: a long year. Last month, we have a new administration, 509 00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,879 Speaker 10: we have tariffs, we have one big beautiful bill to 510 00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,560 Speaker 10: lead up to, and now a shutdown, and the municipal 511 00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:46,240 Speaker 10: bond market has had to deal with all of that. 512 00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:49,120 Speaker 10: But I think the story we're going to talk most 513 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,320 Speaker 10: about for muni's in twenty twenty five has been supply. 514 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,400 Speaker 10: Supply is, for lack of a better phrase, raining down 515 00:24:56,400 --> 00:25:00,159 Speaker 10: on the market. Our market is used to something the 516 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:02,960 Speaker 10: context of a four hundred billion new issue calendar in 517 00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:06,000 Speaker 10: any given year. Last year we hit five hundred. This 518 00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:07,960 Speaker 10: year we're going to come in somewhere around five hundred 519 00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:11,200 Speaker 10: and fifty to five hundred and sixty billion, heavy heavy supply. 520 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:15,440 Speaker 10: The results, let's see, we've got a yield curve that 521 00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:17,760 Speaker 10: is much steeper than the US Treasury curve. If the 522 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:19,960 Speaker 10: twos to thirties and treasuries is around one hundred and 523 00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 10: ten one hundred and twenty basis points. The two to 524 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:24,879 Speaker 10: thirty year spread in UNIS is about one hundred and 525 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,760 Speaker 10: sixty one hundred and seventy basis points. So we've absorbed 526 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:31,200 Speaker 10: a lot of that supply, but not without some implications. 527 00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:34,199 Speaker 10: We've seen credit spreads widen as a lot of that 528 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 10: paper comes down. So I think that's probably going to 529 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,240 Speaker 10: be the real story, and believe it or not, is 530 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:40,960 Speaker 10: probably going to roll into twenty twenty six. 531 00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:43,399 Speaker 5: I guess when I learned about new issuance in the 532 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,639 Speaker 5: missip bond market. They don't issue when they can, i e. 533 00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 5: When rates are low. Miss pound is issue when they 534 00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:51,360 Speaker 5: need the money to build the bridge or the road 535 00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:53,560 Speaker 5: or something like that. So they're not as interest rate 536 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 5: sensitive as say a corporate bar would be. So when 537 00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,920 Speaker 5: you and all I hear about is infrastructure here, infrastructure there. 538 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:04,240 Speaker 5: My gateway project is cruising along outside the other side 539 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,119 Speaker 5: of the river. So should you not expect should we 540 00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:08,800 Speaker 5: not expect more issuance even next year? 541 00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:14,679 Speaker 10: Absolutely expect heavy issuance for next year. You are spot 542 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,959 Speaker 10: on in that once a government gets through all of 543 00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:22,359 Speaker 10: the voter approvals the engineering work, they're going to come 544 00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:25,359 Speaker 10: to market and push this project forward. They'll set that 545 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:28,560 Speaker 10: structure so that hopefully they can refinance should rates go lower, 546 00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:31,560 Speaker 10: But odds are that's going to happen. So your questions 547 00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:33,280 Speaker 10: a good one, and that what's going to happen for 548 00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:37,960 Speaker 10: twenty twenty six. When we sort of scan the street, 549 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,439 Speaker 10: what is the street looking for? They're looking for us 550 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:43,199 Speaker 10: to do exactly this. Again, five hundred and twenty to 551 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 10: even six hundred, six hundred and twenty billion in new 552 00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:47,280 Speaker 10: issuance is the range. 553 00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:48,160 Speaker 3: It makes sense. 554 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 10: We had a lot of issuers rush to the market 555 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,600 Speaker 10: ahead of the one big beautiful bill just for concerns 556 00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,080 Speaker 10: there might be some change to tax exemption. There wasn't 557 00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:59,160 Speaker 10: a lot of projects that are passed due and now 558 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:01,359 Speaker 10: we know what inflation those projects costs a lot more. 559 00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:03,680 Speaker 10: So expect to replay events next year. 560 00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,080 Speaker 2: Give us a snapshot of what you do, Scott Diamond 561 00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:09,639 Speaker 2: with Golden Sacks with all of their different investments in 562 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:15,040 Speaker 2: municipal bond. So I've got the Massachusetts State Development Beth Israel. 563 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:16,119 Speaker 3: Lahy health issue. 564 00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:20,760 Speaker 2: It's in one of your portfolios out I think fifteen years. 565 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,080 Speaker 2: If my math is right, it's a five percent coupon. 566 00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:27,560 Speaker 2: Can the little guy get access to that piece? I 567 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 2: mean that world? Is that only an institutional world? 568 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:35,560 Speaker 10: Well, yes, an individual could, But I think where the 569 00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:38,720 Speaker 10: individual is not going to be able to stay on 570 00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:42,080 Speaker 10: top of that is are they going to check the 571 00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:45,879 Speaker 10: quarterlies that lahe needs to come out with every quarter? 572 00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:49,760 Speaker 10: How are they doing? One big beautiful bill has a 573 00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,359 Speaker 10: lot of things in it, right, There's going to be 574 00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:55,879 Speaker 10: some changes to Medicaid. There's going to be fewer reimbursements 575 00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:59,199 Speaker 10: phased in, thankfully over time, but that's going to be 576 00:27:59,240 --> 00:28:01,800 Speaker 10: a trend that if you own that bond, you want 577 00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 10: to watch and see how that impacts the financials of 578 00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:09,800 Speaker 10: that institution. So do you, as an individual have that 579 00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:13,600 Speaker 10: capability or perhaps more importantly, the desire to stay on 580 00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:17,200 Speaker 10: top of your individual municipal bonds. If you go into 581 00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:20,840 Speaker 10: a Commingle vehicle, you're essentially hiring us and our impressive 582 00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,320 Speaker 10: ten person research team to stay on top of that 583 00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,000 Speaker 10: spot if there's an issue coming up, and maybe we 584 00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:27,560 Speaker 10: exit that and get into something else. 585 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,120 Speaker 2: Oh, you should see their next tickets, right, I'll ten 586 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:31,840 Speaker 2: of them go at once to see the next plug. 587 00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:35,720 Speaker 5: Tom, I've got the laddered Muni of New Jersey municipal bonds. 588 00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:37,840 Speaker 6: It's a ladder. You're very laddered. 589 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:40,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm like the largest creditor to camer Is that 590 00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:42,880 Speaker 3: for real? Like everybody should ladder or you know. 591 00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:46,320 Speaker 2: The phrases that retail uses, barbelluy immunities of that. 592 00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,200 Speaker 3: There is there a validity to a laddered approach. 593 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,880 Speaker 10: I think so, I think so Tom Again, It's going 594 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:55,320 Speaker 10: to come down to you as an investor, what are 595 00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,120 Speaker 10: you trying to achieve? And a lot of our clients 596 00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:02,360 Speaker 10: like that consistency of a ladder portfolio. I know that 597 00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:05,239 Speaker 10: I can expect a certain amount maturing each year for 598 00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:07,840 Speaker 10: the next handful of years. The bond comes to you 599 00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:11,240 Speaker 10: at maturity, just redeployed at the top of the ladder. 600 00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:13,880 Speaker 10: There's a simplicity to it. I've done unis for a 601 00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:17,959 Speaker 10: long time. I love this market, infrastructure, the whole concept 602 00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:21,920 Speaker 10: you're building something. I love that we have fifty states, 603 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:24,440 Speaker 10: we have US territories, we have short bonds, long bonds. 604 00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:29,520 Speaker 10: I think of this market as just ripe for opportunity. Right, 605 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:31,840 Speaker 10: you have passive options. You can do a ladder, you 606 00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:35,600 Speaker 10: could do a passive ETF. But but if I've got 607 00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:40,400 Speaker 10: tens of thousands of issuers bonds across the go ahead. 608 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 2: I got to get this in there. You get forty 609 00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:45,160 Speaker 2: seconds left. Are you guys in the AI space? Like 610 00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 2: all the energy needs and funding, is that going to 611 00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:49,600 Speaker 2: be a muni bond opportunity. 612 00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:53,400 Speaker 10: I think it's got the potential to increase some supply, right, 613 00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:56,320 Speaker 10: A lot of that has to get built, So we're 614 00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:58,600 Speaker 10: going to need new generations. We're going to need new 615 00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:02,000 Speaker 10: transmission and some of that could come. I think some 616 00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:03,920 Speaker 10: of it will go private, but some of that's going 617 00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:04,680 Speaker 10: to land on the public. 618 00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,040 Speaker 3: I can see you, Paul Immuni bound in New Jersey. 619 00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,280 Speaker 3: Short within you know, AI. 620 00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:11,240 Speaker 6: I call up the governor picks up the first ring 621 00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,040 Speaker 6: you yep, Governor Christy exactly. 622 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:14,440 Speaker 3: Thank you. 623 00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:17,520 Speaker 2: Scott's brilliant don't be a stranger, Scott Diamond with gold 624 00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:21,240 Speaker 2: and sacks here and the efficacy of taking advantage of 625 00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:26,440 Speaker 2: texts free bum stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance 626 00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:34,920 Speaker 2: coming up after this. 627 00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:38,840 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 628 00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:42,160 Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto. 629 00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:45,240 Speaker 1: With the Bloomberg Business app, you can also listen live 630 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:48,920 Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just 631 00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,640 Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 632 00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:53,360 Speaker 3: Lise I m tell you the newspapers. 633 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 11: All right, you mentioned Paramount will pull us. You know 634 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:57,200 Speaker 11: that's the paramoun plus let's start with Paramount. 635 00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:57,480 Speaker 6: Okay. 636 00:30:57,520 --> 00:30:59,600 Speaker 11: We know they had a number of efforts right to 637 00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:02,320 Speaker 11: try and buy Warner Brothers Discovery. Has it worked out yet, 638 00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:05,440 Speaker 11: but sources telling the Financial Times that David Ellison actually 639 00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:09,360 Speaker 11: met with Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund other officials from 640 00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:13,080 Speaker 11: the region because they expressed interest in taking part of 641 00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:16,760 Speaker 11: that bid. So no agreement has been reached. Conversations are 642 00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:20,680 Speaker 11: quote active. But it just shows the scale of financing 643 00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:22,200 Speaker 11: that like the linin. 644 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,040 Speaker 2: Bedroom or the green room at the White House for 645 00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:27,000 Speaker 2: the you know, MBS is here where like let's have 646 00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:27,680 Speaker 2: a meeting here. 647 00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:28,160 Speaker 3: You know. 648 00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,160 Speaker 5: Well, the problem is or that the math has very simple. 649 00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,920 Speaker 5: Paramounts got an enterprise value of about thirty billion dollars. 650 00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,240 Speaker 5: Warner Brothers Discovery, who they want to buy, has an 651 00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:38,560 Speaker 5: enterprise value about ninety billion dollars. Three time you bring 652 00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 5: in external equity. So you get that from mister Ellison himself. 653 00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:43,560 Speaker 5: You get that from private equity. You get that from 654 00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:45,760 Speaker 5: sovereign wealth funds. Anybody who has a big can write 655 00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:47,760 Speaker 5: a big check. Come on in, we'll take your equity. 656 00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:49,480 Speaker 2: And John, I guess we're in over The New York 657 00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,440 Speaker 2: Post is talking on mister robertson Comcast YEP. 658 00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:55,840 Speaker 3: I don't know the details, but this is active. Yeah, 659 00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,200 Speaker 3: what's your thought does it? How does this end up? 660 00:31:58,240 --> 00:31:58,480 Speaker 8: A lot? 661 00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:00,600 Speaker 5: I think if I'm Warner Brothers discus, I want to 662 00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,080 Speaker 5: sell to Paramount because they want to buy the whole thing, 663 00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:06,200 Speaker 5: and that would be the easiest, smoothest, cleanest. 664 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:08,440 Speaker 6: But they're prepared to go the other way too, which 665 00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:09,080 Speaker 6: is also. 666 00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:10,200 Speaker 5: In my studio and my HBO. 667 00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:11,720 Speaker 6: And I'll just spin out the rest. 668 00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:15,520 Speaker 11: Twenty four next and then Saudi Rape actually wants to 669 00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,160 Speaker 11: get more into this exactly here they're expanding into this 670 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:19,440 Speaker 11: why not space? 671 00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:21,080 Speaker 6: Okay, so let's go back. 672 00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:23,280 Speaker 11: You remember the auction house that sold that more than 673 00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:26,440 Speaker 11: twelve million dollars gold toilet. Okay, of course there's a 674 00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:28,960 Speaker 11: new It's a story that keeps giving guys. 675 00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:31,160 Speaker 6: I'm telling you whole it holds a new record. 676 00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:35,000 Speaker 11: Okay, So this is a Gustav climped painting it for 677 00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,680 Speaker 11: hang tight two hundred and thirty six point four million 678 00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:41,880 Speaker 11: dollars last night at Southerb's. It was actually the first 679 00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:44,480 Speaker 11: auction in that new home they have New York Saborrial building, 680 00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:46,840 Speaker 11: so it was the first auction there. But it makes 681 00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:50,720 Speaker 11: it the world's most expensive modern artwork at auction, the 682 00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:54,800 Speaker 11: second pressiest work of art auctioned overall. So the piece 683 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:58,720 Speaker 11: is called Portrait of Elizabeth Letterer. Okay, it has, you know, 684 00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:00,480 Speaker 11: the picture of a woman setting in a white gown 685 00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:01,360 Speaker 11: against this backdrop. 686 00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,640 Speaker 6: I got like six people bidding for it. 687 00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:06,040 Speaker 11: But it's just a good sign because it shows that 688 00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:09,080 Speaker 11: the art market, which is really kind of sluggish lately, 689 00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:11,640 Speaker 11: it's been turning around. And you're seeing this turnaround in 690 00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:12,960 Speaker 11: the art market. 691 00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:15,280 Speaker 2: And it's part of the New York City fabric. This 692 00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:20,280 Speaker 2: is mister Lauder who was of his estate and it's 693 00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:23,040 Speaker 2: a huge number, but he goes to the commitment we've 694 00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:26,280 Speaker 2: seen from the Jewish Museum in New York City to 695 00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,360 Speaker 2: good stuff Clint, and there's a whole series of paintings 696 00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,920 Speaker 2: he's done. This one is spectacular, you know, mi amateur 697 00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:35,480 Speaker 2: take is it's just a whole league above of a 698 00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:37,960 Speaker 2: lot of the others. Like you know, the numbers seems 699 00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:42,240 Speaker 2: a quarter of a trillion dollars a billion. 700 00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:44,840 Speaker 6: Who bought it anyway, we don't know. We don't know who. 701 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 3: We don't know who bought it. 702 00:33:45,800 --> 00:33:54,440 Speaker 6: It's not Mets owner who bought the first name. Okay. 703 00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:56,440 Speaker 11: We've heard a lot of stories about a lot of 704 00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:59,880 Speaker 11: people going California sober. Okay, this is when they use 705 00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:03,280 Speaker 11: marijuana and other drugs but not alcohol because they say 706 00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:06,680 Speaker 11: it's healthier. It's become this trendy thing. So there's a 707 00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:11,000 Speaker 11: new study that suggests people drink considerably less after they 708 00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:13,480 Speaker 11: smoke cannabis, so it kind of linked it. It's a 709 00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:15,400 Speaker 11: new published study. So they took about one hundred and 710 00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 11: fifty people who regularly use marijuana and alcohol. They put 711 00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:22,560 Speaker 11: them into this makeshift bar on campus at Brown University, 712 00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:24,640 Speaker 11: and they tested because they want to know how much 713 00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:27,319 Speaker 11: people drink after they smoke cannabis. And it turns out 714 00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:30,719 Speaker 11: they did drink less after they smoked cannabis. I don't 715 00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:33,799 Speaker 11: know what the gummy situation the gummies edible, but they 716 00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,879 Speaker 11: were strictly smoking cannabis. This was strictly smoking like they 717 00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:39,279 Speaker 11: had to like inhale at the same time, like it 718 00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:41,319 Speaker 11: was this whole procedure behind it, troll test. 719 00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:43,440 Speaker 6: But that's what exactly did you show them? 720 00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:46,799 Speaker 11: They are were less likely to drink after doing that. 721 00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:49,000 Speaker 6: That's where I hear from folks that are in the 722 00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:51,400 Speaker 6: gummy space. All right, okay, stuff. 723 00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:53,480 Speaker 2: There, Thank you, Lisa, thank you so much. It is 724 00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:56,000 Speaker 2: the Newspapers with Lisa Matteo. 725 00:34:56,440 --> 00:35:01,279 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 726 00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:05,680 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, 727 00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:09,239 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 728 00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:13,360 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You 729 00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:16,759 Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and 730 00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:18,720 Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal.