1
00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,320
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penl Podcast. I'm Paul swing you.

2
00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,760
Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Brahmas. Each day we

3
00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:10,440
Speaker 1: bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for you

4
00:00:10,520 --> 00:00:12,640
Speaker 1: and your money, whether at the grocery store or the

5
00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:15,960
Speaker 1: trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple podcast

6
00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:18,040
Speaker 1: or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as at

7
00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:21,800
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com. Well, it is Jobs Friday. There's something

8
00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:24,560
Speaker 1: for everybody in there. The unemployment rate, that's what Larry

9
00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:29,520
Speaker 1: Cudlow lad with falls to three point five despite missing

10
00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:32,760
Speaker 1: the hiring in September. To get dig a little deeper

11
00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:35,440
Speaker 1: into the jobs data, we welcome Tom Gibble. Tom's a

12
00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:38,760
Speaker 1: founder and CEO of lasal Network based in Chicago. Tom,

13
00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:41,480
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Again, there's probably something

14
00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:45,640
Speaker 1: in this report for uh fed, dubs and hawks alike.

15
00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:49,159
Speaker 1: What were your key takeaways? I have to agree with

16
00:00:49,159 --> 00:00:51,800
Speaker 1: what Larry Cudlow lad with, and that is the drop

17
00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:55,160
Speaker 1: down to three point five. And while economist for predicting

18
00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:58,560
Speaker 1: a hundred thousand, a hundred and thirty six thousand is

19
00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:01,120
Speaker 1: nothing to sneeze at, the e onomy is still jugging.

20
00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:04,000
Speaker 1: And you know everybody wants to be the forecaster for

21
00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:07,959
Speaker 1: when the right of when the quote unquote slow down

22
00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:10,319
Speaker 1: our recession hits. But things are really good right now.

23
00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:14,720
Speaker 1: So trying to square the idea of this lowest unemployment

24
00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:18,120
Speaker 1: rate in fifty years with this idea of wage growth

25
00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:21,800
Speaker 1: that is slowing down, the two ideas seem to kind

26
00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:25,640
Speaker 1: of contradict each other. I totally disagree. I think that

27
00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:28,560
Speaker 1: it makes sense because we're in a global economy right now,

28
00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,880
Speaker 1: and if we were just doing jobs in America for

29
00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:36,479
Speaker 1: American companies, then having low unemployment and no wage growth

30
00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:39,759
Speaker 1: wouldn't make sense. But we're not competing against UH, your

31
00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:42,560
Speaker 1: neighbor for a job. If companies can make more money

32
00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:46,840
Speaker 1: for their shareholders, UH, increasing shareholder value is what the

33
00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:48,960
Speaker 1: job of a company is to do, what the CEO

34
00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:51,640
Speaker 1: is to do. Then finding somebody who's talented to do

35
00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:54,960
Speaker 1: it in a global economy in India or Pakistan or

36
00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:58,240
Speaker 1: China or wherever makes a lot of sense. And that's

37
00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:00,880
Speaker 1: what we're competing against, all right. So if that's the case,

38
00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:04,800
Speaker 1: then even if we continue to see job gains, is

39
00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:08,040
Speaker 1: that that you're expecting wage growth to continue to slow

40
00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:11,519
Speaker 1: down as we did UH in the past reading. Well,

41
00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:15,120
Speaker 1: if the cycle we're looking at is probably three five

42
00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:18,000
Speaker 1: seven years off for real wage gain, and that is,

43
00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:21,840
Speaker 1: as these underdeveloped countries catch up with the rest of

44
00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,400
Speaker 1: the world, then their wages will will grow, and then

45
00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:28,079
Speaker 1: American companies will have to look and say, doesn't make

46
00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:31,480
Speaker 1: as much sense to offshore jobs when I can get

47
00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:34,560
Speaker 1: it done here with more control and more oversight, you know.

48
00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:36,840
Speaker 1: And we'll see what happens in the geopolitical climate and

49
00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:39,880
Speaker 1: in Washington, d C. Next year, and where regulations are.

50
00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:43,520
Speaker 1: We're a very loose regulation government and economy right now

51
00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:45,840
Speaker 1: for business, So it makes sense to do what's in

52
00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:48,799
Speaker 1: the what's in the immediate best interest to shareholder versus

53
00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:54,560
Speaker 1: long time value. Tom So, the manufacturing economy is slowing.

54
00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:57,280
Speaker 1: We had a negative manufacturing pm I you know, I

55
00:02:57,280 --> 00:02:59,800
Speaker 1: guess forty seven point eight that second month rough so

56
00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:02,400
Speaker 1: put even more pressure on the consumer. And the consumer

57
00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:05,760
Speaker 1: has been really strong in this economy, really supporting uh

58
00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:09,120
Speaker 1: this economy, and a large part of that support for

59
00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:11,880
Speaker 1: the consumer comes from the fact that the consumer has

60
00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:14,000
Speaker 1: a job and wages are going up, maybe not as

61
00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:16,040
Speaker 1: much as people would like. Is there a level of

62
00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:20,320
Speaker 1: job creation um that would get you worried about the

63
00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:26,079
Speaker 1: overall jobs picture. That's an interesting dynamic. You know, we're

64
00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:29,800
Speaker 1: at three point five percent unemployment and historically the number

65
00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:32,640
Speaker 1: of full employment is about two and a half percent.

66
00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:35,640
Speaker 1: And while that you know, doesn't necessarily make direct sense,

67
00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:37,720
Speaker 1: but there is a certain percent of the population that

68
00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:40,200
Speaker 1: can't hold a job. And so when you're looking at

69
00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,119
Speaker 1: the development and the growth of the economy, I've never

70
00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:47,440
Speaker 1: really understood the separation of consumer versus business growth. They

71
00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:49,040
Speaker 1: are I agree with what you said, they are on

72
00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:53,200
Speaker 1: a line and that when people have full jobs, uh,

73
00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:55,520
Speaker 1: and there's low unemployment, then of course the consumer is

74
00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:57,960
Speaker 1: going to be a strong purchaser of goods and services.

75
00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:01,640
Speaker 1: What we have to be careful of is paying too

76
00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:05,680
Speaker 1: much for wages for a job that doesn't deserve right.

77
00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:08,880
Speaker 1: If anybody can do it, it shouldn't pay a lot

78
00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:12,520
Speaker 1: of money. And that's the dynamic wherein now is there

79
00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:14,920
Speaker 1: aren't a lot of people to do the jobs. And

80
00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:17,000
Speaker 1: this is why there's the CEO outrage of are they

81
00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:19,880
Speaker 1: making too much money? Well, as the business world gets

82
00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,720
Speaker 1: such so much more complex and it's global that the

83
00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:26,560
Speaker 1: jobs of CEOs are going to be paid more and

84
00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:30,000
Speaker 1: the fact is is that the baseline worker that job

85
00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,200
Speaker 1: is becoming more simplistic and those jobs are not going

86
00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:35,359
Speaker 1: to grow at the same rate. And no one wants

87
00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:37,520
Speaker 1: to say that in Washington, d C. But that's the truth.

88
00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:39,720
Speaker 1: And that's where the crux is coming of an economic

89
00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:43,440
Speaker 1: disparity between the average worker and the executives. So do

90
00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:46,760
Speaker 1: you see a time in the United States or a

91
00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:51,440
Speaker 1: sector where there could be more investment that could produce

92
00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:55,840
Speaker 1: jobs that pay upper level kinds of salaries, albeit not

93
00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:58,800
Speaker 1: the top and CEO, but something that would cause a

94
00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:02,880
Speaker 1: more meaningful shift up board in average wages. Absolutely, And

95
00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:04,880
Speaker 1: I think where that is going to be is in

96
00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:08,120
Speaker 1: the area of companies doing their own training and development.

97
00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:12,160
Speaker 1: Allah General Electric in the mid eighties with their campus

98
00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:15,360
Speaker 1: and learning is when companies realize that they're going to

99
00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:18,240
Speaker 1: have to start developing their own talent, whether it's in

100
00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:22,320
Speaker 1: blue collar unskilled jobs or skilled jobs or white collar

101
00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:28,400
Speaker 1: that whether it's college graduates UM or under under employed population,

102
00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:30,599
Speaker 1: that they've got to do their own training. And that's

103
00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:34,440
Speaker 1: the next phase. And whether it's done digitally UM through

104
00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:37,400
Speaker 1: computer learning and what have you, or it's done in

105
00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:41,400
Speaker 1: face to face traditional teaching. Companies have to reinvest in

106
00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:44,120
Speaker 1: their training and development. We haven't seen that to the

107
00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:46,720
Speaker 1: level that it needs to be. My guess is over

108
00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:48,440
Speaker 1: the next two to four years that will be what

109
00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:51,440
Speaker 1: separates high growth companies from low growth companies are the

110
00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:54,080
Speaker 1: ones that that invest in training and development. Tom Gimble,

111
00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:57,160
Speaker 1: thank you so much for your thoughts after this job's

112
00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:00,480
Speaker 1: report that we got earlier today. Tom Gimble, founder and

113
00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:12,880
Speaker 1: chief executive officer of LaSalle Network. Well, I think it's

114
00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:14,720
Speaker 1: safe to say that there was something for everybody in

115
00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:17,560
Speaker 1: this morning's job report. We had a fifty year low

116
00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:19,680
Speaker 1: and the unemployment rate at three point five percent is

117
00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:23,120
Speaker 1: as has been reported, but job growth is slowing, wages

118
00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:26,560
Speaker 1: a little bit lower than people would expect. So what

119
00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:29,080
Speaker 1: are investors to do. Our next guest hopefully can help

120
00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:32,040
Speaker 1: us out there. Doug Cohen, Managing Director portfolio manager at

121
00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:35,040
Speaker 1: Athena Capital Advisors. Athena has about five point eight billion

122
00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:38,320
Speaker 1: dollars assets under management. He joins us here in our

123
00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:41,560
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Thanks so much for joining us.

124
00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:44,680
Speaker 1: What was your take on the jobs data today and

125
00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:47,080
Speaker 1: is it changed kind of how you guys are looking

126
00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:49,240
Speaker 1: at the market. Well, first of all, thanks Paul for

127
00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:52,679
Speaker 1: having me back. Um, my general view on the jobs

128
00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:56,400
Speaker 1: reports are that every single Friday of the first Friday

129
00:06:56,400 --> 00:07:00,400
Speaker 1: of every month, we all make the media wilster folks.

130
00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:02,839
Speaker 1: We make way too much of these jobs reports. I

131
00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:07,080
Speaker 1: think we don't make enough. They are volatile number get revision.

132
00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:09,360
Speaker 1: But but I'm going to say something nice. Now. The

133
00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:11,680
Speaker 1: nice part is this time it really you're right to

134
00:07:11,760 --> 00:07:14,440
Speaker 1: lead with that question, because this one actually was really important.

135
00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:17,760
Speaker 1: Just given all the negative the slew of negative data

136
00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:20,160
Speaker 1: that we've had over the last several weeks and really

137
00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:22,080
Speaker 1: over the last several months, this one was important. And

138
00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:24,680
Speaker 1: the reason it was important is that if this if

139
00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:26,680
Speaker 1: we are truly on the cusp of a recession, we

140
00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:29,200
Speaker 1: have not seen it yet with the consumer. We've started

141
00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:31,280
Speaker 1: to see it in the manufacturing sector, but that would

142
00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:34,680
Speaker 1: be the natural progression. If business confidence really starts to wane,

143
00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,600
Speaker 1: the labor picture deteriorates, that's when the consumer becomes most vulnerable.

144
00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:42,200
Speaker 1: So today was essentially a sigh of relief. It wasn't great,

145
00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:45,160
Speaker 1: it wasn't terrible, and that was good enough. Obviously, it's

146
00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:47,400
Speaker 1: good enough for the market so far in terms of

147
00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:50,360
Speaker 1: longer term positioning. I don't know that it necessarily matters.

148
00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:52,960
Speaker 1: I think there's still a tremendous amount of uncertainty out there,

149
00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:55,960
Speaker 1: and things like trade and even into the election next year,

150
00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:59,400
Speaker 1: those are going to be paramount. Honestly, I am scratching

151
00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:02,800
Speaker 1: my head this morning about just the reaction to the numbers.

152
00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:05,840
Speaker 1: They came in worse than expected. Wage growth came in

153
00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:09,520
Speaker 1: worse than expected, The trend is down right now. We're

154
00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:12,520
Speaker 1: looking at a market that does appear to be uh

155
00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,040
Speaker 1: full employment at least when it comes to the three

156
00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:18,560
Speaker 1: and a half percent unemployment rate, but not great numbers,

157
00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:22,480
Speaker 1: and it shows a trend of deceleration. So why is

158
00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:25,680
Speaker 1: this a sigh of relief? Because it really wasn't that bad,

159
00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:28,520
Speaker 1: and I think the bar had already been lowered the consensus,

160
00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:30,720
Speaker 1: so there's a formal consensus which this number was just

161
00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:34,320
Speaker 1: slightly below, but the off talked about whisper number was

162
00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:37,360
Speaker 1: probably something like a hundred and twenty. But to your point,

163
00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:39,520
Speaker 1: when you really dig through the numbers, the wage growth

164
00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:41,880
Speaker 1: was not great. One of the better things we've had

165
00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:43,680
Speaker 1: going us from the economy is that we've had wage

166
00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:46,720
Speaker 1: growth over three percent. We dipped slightly below that, but

167
00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:48,840
Speaker 1: I still come back to my earlier statement, let's not

168
00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:51,160
Speaker 1: over obsess over a tenth of a point here or

169
00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:55,000
Speaker 1: they are. You're right, we already accelerating. But at least

170
00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:58,040
Speaker 1: this report showed that we're not slipping into freefall. It

171
00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:01,080
Speaker 1: really was relatively stable. So, as you guys think about

172
00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:05,800
Speaker 1: the next twelve eighteen months with your UH portfolios, do

173
00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:08,760
Speaker 1: you feel like the Fed has enough ammunition to support

174
00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:13,319
Speaker 1: this market or is it just law of diminishing returns

175
00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:15,480
Speaker 1: on kind of what the Fed can really do? Absolutely

176
00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:18,000
Speaker 1: the ladder, and we're already so low. And you think

177
00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:21,319
Speaker 1: about a typical recession, A recessions typical. But having said that,

178
00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:23,960
Speaker 1: you know, a garden variety of recession, you typically want

179
00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,640
Speaker 1: five or six hundred basis points of cushion. We don't

180
00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:30,400
Speaker 1: have that. And the ultimate kind of irony in some

181
00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:32,280
Speaker 1: way is that at this point, even if we do

182
00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:36,359
Speaker 1: cut rates, I think it has the potential unintended consequence

183
00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:39,920
Speaker 1: of making it easier for this trade ward linger. And

184
00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:43,319
Speaker 1: that is at the margin, the thing that is holding

185
00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:46,920
Speaker 1: the global economy back. And um, you know, as you say,

186
00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,240
Speaker 1: if you look out over the next twelve months or so,

187
00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:51,520
Speaker 1: if there's one thing that would really be a game

188
00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:53,880
Speaker 1: changer from a macro perspective. It would be getting this

189
00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:57,160
Speaker 1: trade war behind us. So what are you buying? Well,

190
00:09:57,240 --> 00:09:59,800
Speaker 1: I can tell you most of our clients, um are.

191
00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,120
Speaker 1: You know, we spend more time talking about the differences

192
00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:06,559
Speaker 1: and yields on cash versus enhanced cash, really boring stuff.

193
00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:08,679
Speaker 1: But I think that's indicative of the mindset. I mean,

194
00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:12,839
Speaker 1: Tom Kane triple levered cash, you know, right, he has

195
00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:16,080
Speaker 1: been for what ten years now? But you know, but look,

196
00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:17,840
Speaker 1: having said that, and I think most of our clients

197
00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:20,280
Speaker 1: understand that, you know, all things pass, and that if

198
00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:23,520
Speaker 1: you truly do have a long term perspective, US equity

199
00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:27,920
Speaker 1: markets in particular are not egregiously priced um And it's

200
00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:31,320
Speaker 1: not terribly difficult to see a scenario where we do

201
00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:33,280
Speaker 1: get a resolution in the trade, where where we start

202
00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:35,160
Speaker 1: to get back to a point where hey, it's kind

203
00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,400
Speaker 1: of goldilocks again. We get GDP growth that's around two percent,

204
00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:41,560
Speaker 1: inflation that's around two percent, interest rates that broadly are

205
00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:44,720
Speaker 1: around two percent. That's nirvana for equity markets, those that

206
00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:46,840
Speaker 1: you can get higher multiples than where we are today.

207
00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:49,600
Speaker 1: If you think that that kind of environment can persist,

208
00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:52,480
Speaker 1: how worried are you about you know, trade, We haven't

209
00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:54,079
Speaker 1: really talked about it too much, but we're going to

210
00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:58,400
Speaker 1: have negotiations again supposedly next week. So it's been something

211
00:10:58,400 --> 00:10:59,720
Speaker 1: that's been a little bit on the back burner, but

212
00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:02,480
Speaker 1: you highlighted it as certainly an issue for the global

213
00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:06,400
Speaker 1: manufacturing and the global confidence of of of corporate UH

214
00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:08,920
Speaker 1: corporates around the world. What is your view? So my

215
00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:10,760
Speaker 1: view is, look at two things that are probably most

216
00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:14,520
Speaker 1: important right now are interest rates in trade and interest rates.

217
00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:16,439
Speaker 1: As we just talked about, we I think we are

218
00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:18,640
Speaker 1: getting to that point of diminishing returns. There's only so

219
00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:20,720
Speaker 1: much lower that we can really go before we start

220
00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:23,559
Speaker 1: getting into the extraordinary things that Europe and Japan have

221
00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:26,080
Speaker 1: been doing that frankly haven't worked all that well. So

222
00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:28,320
Speaker 1: I come back to trade as kind of the marginal driver.

223
00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:31,240
Speaker 1: I think it's extremely important that we do get some

224
00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:33,520
Speaker 1: progress next week. It doesn't have to be amazing, No

225
00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:36,320
Speaker 1: one expects a final resolution, but we're starting to get

226
00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:39,360
Speaker 1: to a point where if nothing happens by early next year,

227
00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:42,880
Speaker 1: then the election starts to become meaningfully close. And I

228
00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:45,439
Speaker 1: think the Chinese in particular are going to say you

229
00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:47,280
Speaker 1: know what, maybe we should just set this out. So

230
00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:49,800
Speaker 1: to me, if there's going to be a resolution, even

231
00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:52,560
Speaker 1: if it's a light resolution, a sort of a token

232
00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:55,600
Speaker 1: kind of kick the can type of UH interim arrangement,

233
00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:57,360
Speaker 1: it probably needs to happen in the next four or

234
00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:01,480
Speaker 1: five months. Okay, Well, you said buy stocks. Basically, what

235
00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:05,280
Speaker 1: do you sell? Uh? If you have a long term perspective,

236
00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:08,520
Speaker 1: you sell? You sell fixed income Because there's probably in

237
00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:12,560
Speaker 1: a world where bubbles are only easily identified after they burst.

238
00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:15,160
Speaker 1: Fixed income is the bubble we I think at some

239
00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:19,080
Speaker 1: level we all know that the extraordinary low negative interest

240
00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:21,160
Speaker 1: rates that we have throughout the world, this is not normal,

241
00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:23,160
Speaker 1: and folks who try and rationalize it, I think are

242
00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:25,400
Speaker 1: making a mistakes. So again, over a multi year time frame,

243
00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:29,480
Speaker 1: I think that's what you do. How does it unravel? Well,

244
00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:36,960
Speaker 1: in a lot of different ways, you have so um,

245
00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:39,679
Speaker 1: I think if I had so so. Ray Dalio has

246
00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:42,480
Speaker 1: written a lot about this Bridgewater, and I think he's right.

247
00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:45,160
Speaker 1: If you have to think about a potential paradigm change

248
00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:48,520
Speaker 1: for what could take place over the next decade if

249
00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:51,800
Speaker 1: we continue down this path where globally interest rates continue

250
00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:56,040
Speaker 1: to cascade lower at some point, debts are gonna start

251
00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:57,960
Speaker 1: to matter. There's gonna be a race to the bottom

252
00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:00,920
Speaker 1: on the currencies, and that potend chili could be very,

253
00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:04,760
Speaker 1: very destructive. And if you do start to see that,

254
00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:07,439
Speaker 1: that in and of itself would create an environment where

255
00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:11,760
Speaker 1: um debt does actually begin to matter again and interest

256
00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:13,839
Speaker 1: rates start to move meaningfully higher. So it sort of

257
00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:17,480
Speaker 1: gets gets, you know, rates get lower before they break higher.

258
00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:20,520
Speaker 1: That's the paradigm change. And when you want to when

259
00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:23,160
Speaker 1: we have more than sixty seconds now probably six seconds,

260
00:13:23,240 --> 00:13:25,640
Speaker 1: I'd be happy to come back and talk about it more. Cohen,

261
00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:28,120
Speaker 1: We'll have to do that. Doug Cohen, Managing director and

262
00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:31,120
Speaker 1: portfolio manager at Athenic Capital Advisors with nearly six billion

263
00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:42,880
Speaker 1: dollars in assets. Thank you so much. Right now, we

264
00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:45,880
Speaker 1: are so lucky to have with us our Bloomberg Opinion

265
00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:49,720
Speaker 1: colleague Max Neeson. As we check in with our opinion

266
00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:52,800
Speaker 1: calumnists all the time. At this time, Max Neston joins

267
00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:56,920
Speaker 1: us here covering the biotech, farmland, healthcare sectors for US.

268
00:13:57,360 --> 00:14:01,080
Speaker 1: And I want to look toward the election and President

269
00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:04,160
Speaker 1: Trump certainly is doing just that. And recently he started

270
00:14:04,160 --> 00:14:08,560
Speaker 1: talking in a less discussed than say Ukraine, a less

271
00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:11,559
Speaker 1: discussed proposal for healthcare. Can you just give us a

272
00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,280
Speaker 1: sense of what that was. Yeah, absolutely, So. This was

273
00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:17,960
Speaker 1: a speech he gave in Florida yesterday. He unveiled a

274
00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:21,480
Speaker 1: new executive order, one of many that he's done on

275
00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:26,000
Speaker 1: healthcare over the past few years. This one focuses on Medicare,

276
00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:29,680
Speaker 1: specifically on boosting Medicare Advantage, which is sort of the

277
00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:34,080
Speaker 1: privately administered UM, you know, option for seniors that that

278
00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:37,280
Speaker 1: don't want traditional medicare UM. And he used to it.

279
00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:40,280
Speaker 1: You know, it was partially a speech rolling this out,

280
00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:43,920
Speaker 1: which is, you know, as far as healthcare policy goes,

281
00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:48,320
Speaker 1: not not the biggest thing we've ever seen, but also

282
00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:50,880
Speaker 1: use it sort of to preview his campaign rhetoric, which is,

283
00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:54,840
Speaker 1: anything that Democrats want to do is a socialist destruction

284
00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:58,160
Speaker 1: of Medicare and um will you know, ruin the American

285
00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:01,200
Speaker 1: healthcare system forever. So it was a little bit of both, UM,

286
00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:04,320
Speaker 1: but it's for the policy itself. It basically seeks to

287
00:15:04,360 --> 00:15:06,920
Speaker 1: sort of advance, you know, give give a boost to

288
00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:10,560
Speaker 1: these plans relative to to traditional Medicare. It's been a

289
00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:12,600
Speaker 1: kind of a long time Republican goal. The ideas that

290
00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:15,880
Speaker 1: you know, competition on that side will bring down costs,

291
00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:19,120
Speaker 1: boost efficiency. Mixed results on it so far, but but

292
00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:21,440
Speaker 1: he's trying to give those plans a bigger nudge. So

293
00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:23,760
Speaker 1: just give us a sense if our summary, if you could,

294
00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:26,680
Speaker 1: for what is medicare for all, because that's something that

295
00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:28,800
Speaker 1: we're going to hear a lot about as we head

296
00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:32,480
Speaker 1: into the election season. Sure most often, especially in the

297
00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:36,880
Speaker 1: context of the presidential election, it's referring to Bernie Sanders plan,

298
00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:41,280
Speaker 1: which would basically, over the course of four years, transition

299
00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:47,600
Speaker 1: all Americans onto a new publicly tax financed, government run

300
00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:51,120
Speaker 1: program and that that uh, that program, and I think

301
00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:53,920
Speaker 1: this is an important point relative to this Medicare discussion,

302
00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:57,520
Speaker 1: would be more generous by a substantial margin than even

303
00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:00,440
Speaker 1: what Medicare is right now. No premiums, no out of

304
00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:03,840
Speaker 1: pocket costs, um, you know, no co pays, no coinsurance

305
00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,880
Speaker 1: when you actually go to doctor Philip prescription uh. And

306
00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:10,040
Speaker 1: instead of these sort of narrowly prescribed networks that you

307
00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:13,200
Speaker 1: have when you have insurance, now access to theoretically any

308
00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:16,000
Speaker 1: doctor that you want comes with trade offs, you know,

309
00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:19,000
Speaker 1: higher taxes, um. You know, if we look at other

310
00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:22,520
Speaker 1: countries that have single payer systems, potentially longer way times,

311
00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:25,160
Speaker 1: other cost control manasures, so you know, give and take.

312
00:16:25,240 --> 00:16:27,760
Speaker 1: It's impossible because we've never seen in the United States

313
00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:30,040
Speaker 1: know exactly what it would look like, but it would

314
00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:33,200
Speaker 1: be a generous step up for most people in terms

315
00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:35,720
Speaker 1: of their healthcare Max. One thing that you noted in

316
00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:39,119
Speaker 1: your recent column is that healthcare has been a particularly

317
00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:43,320
Speaker 1: thorny topic for President Trump, and I wonder how much

318
00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:47,080
Speaker 1: that stems from, uh, what the Republican view is in

319
00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:48,920
Speaker 1: terms of what they would like to see. And I'm

320
00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:52,600
Speaker 1: not talking about Republicans in Congress. I'm talking about voting

321
00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:57,440
Speaker 1: Democratic resident, voting Republican residents of the United States. Yes,

322
00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:01,320
Speaker 1: so the sort of the way character as Republican view

323
00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:06,320
Speaker 1: towards healthcare policy is that it's always oppositional to whatever

324
00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:08,919
Speaker 1: Democrats are trying to do. We had it with the

325
00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:11,520
Speaker 1: Affordable Care Act, we have it now with with plans

326
00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:15,720
Speaker 1: to expand Medicare. There's not really a vision for or

327
00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:18,800
Speaker 1: at least not a popular vision for an alternative. Always

328
00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:20,440
Speaker 1: saw this a couple of years back when they tried

329
00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:23,639
Speaker 1: to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, but it

330
00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:27,000
Speaker 1: became pretty obvious that their plan would erode would have

331
00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:30,520
Speaker 1: become very popular, protections for people with preteristing conditions, other

332
00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:34,239
Speaker 1: consumer protections, and roll back the Medicaid expansion, which has

333
00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:37,120
Speaker 1: has been kind of shown to be highly effective at

334
00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:40,320
Speaker 1: improving health care outcomes for poor people and has just

335
00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:42,520
Speaker 1: gotten a lot of people insurance that never had it before.

336
00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:46,240
Speaker 1: They don't really seem to have a fully fleshed out alternative,

337
00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:48,399
Speaker 1: and I don't think we saw one from the President

338
00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:51,240
Speaker 1: yesterday short of if anything, it showed sort of a

339
00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:54,640
Speaker 1: diminished ambition. Uh, you know, this focus on medicare as

340
00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:58,320
Speaker 1: opposed to a broader alternative. And at the same time,

341
00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:01,479
Speaker 1: even as they you know, we pledged yesterday Republicans are

342
00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:04,480
Speaker 1: going to protect people with prexisting conditions, he's still supporting

343
00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:07,000
Speaker 1: a lawsuit that would get rid of the a c

344
00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:10,200
Speaker 1: A and and has not at this point at least

345
00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,400
Speaker 1: revealed an alternative plan that that could kind of live

346
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:15,240
Speaker 1: up to that promise that he's making. So when you

347
00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:18,000
Speaker 1: talk to some big healthcare companies, you know, as part

348
00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:20,680
Speaker 1: of your coverage, what are they looking for to come

349
00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:23,600
Speaker 1: out of Washington? Is the status quo kind of okay?

350
00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,880
Speaker 1: Or do they want a radical change? What's the kind

351
00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:30,200
Speaker 1: of the status quo is fabulous. Yes, yeah, they're they're

352
00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,760
Speaker 1: they're working overtime to preserve it. Um and I think

353
00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:36,119
Speaker 1: you're seeing right now, and this is sort of the

354
00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,760
Speaker 1: the big issue with proposing any sort of major healthcare

355
00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:41,520
Speaker 1: reform right now. One of the things, and that's kind

356
00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:43,879
Speaker 1: of trying to make its way through Covers, is a

357
00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:47,280
Speaker 1: restriction on what's called surprise building. So basically when you

358
00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:51,160
Speaker 1: go to a provider that's out of your network, and

359
00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:54,800
Speaker 1: that happens all the time when it's things like emergency medicine, ambulances,

360
00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:57,160
Speaker 1: things that you don't really get to pick, and those

361
00:18:57,200 --> 00:18:59,880
Speaker 1: groups leverage that to charge really really high prices, whether

362
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:02,159
Speaker 1: not they're in an insury network. This should be the

363
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,360
Speaker 1: lowest hanging fruit in healthcare. It's you know, it's an

364
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:08,919
Speaker 1: obvious market failure, it's obviously abusive, and if it's no

365
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:11,240
Speaker 1: one except for the you know, the private equity firms

366
00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:14,879
Speaker 1: that have invested in these areas, but um, you know,

367
00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:16,359
Speaker 1: it just shows how hard it's going to be to

368
00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:18,480
Speaker 1: have reform and how much people like the status quo.

369
00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:20,879
Speaker 1: Max Neison, thanks so much for joining us. Max Neisson

370
00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:24,520
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Opinion columnists covering all things biotech for Bloomberg Opinion.

371
00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:26,639
Speaker 1: You can read Max's work and other great work from

372
00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:29,800
Speaker 1: our Bloomberg Opinion columnists at Bloomberg dot com, Slash Opinion,

373
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:32,560
Speaker 1: or on eternal Typing. An O P I n Go.

374
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:46,119
Speaker 1: Joining us now is Becky francoit's president of Manpower Group

375
00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:50,119
Speaker 1: North America, joining us from Chicago and Becky. Earlier we

376
00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:53,119
Speaker 1: were speaking with Tom Gimble from LaSalle and he had

377
00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:56,439
Speaker 1: a very positive view of this job's report. Do you

378
00:19:56,520 --> 00:20:00,239
Speaker 1: agree that it really is the very low unemployment right

379
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:02,879
Speaker 1: that we should be kind of highlighting here? Yeah, so,

380
00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:05,840
Speaker 1: I would say the talent squeeze definitely showed up in

381
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,720
Speaker 1: today's jobs report. You know, unemployment at three point five

382
00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:13,800
Speaker 1: percent continues to defy the economic definition of full employment. UM.

383
00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:17,880
Speaker 1: So I would celebrate the addition, the continued addition to jobs.

384
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,560
Speaker 1: You know, it is a very very tight labor market

385
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:23,400
Speaker 1: and the future of our company or our country's economic

386
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:26,600
Speaker 1: growth depends on us having you know, skilled talent to

387
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:30,520
Speaker 1: put into these jobs. So, Becky, the wage increase came

388
00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:34,760
Speaker 1: in a little bit below expectations two point nine percent. Um.

389
00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:37,120
Speaker 1: How do you view the wage growth? Is it healthy

390
00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 1: or would you be expecting higher wage growth given that

391
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:43,440
Speaker 1: we're at our near full employment. Yeah, so of course

392
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:45,879
Speaker 1: I would expect wage growth too. I was surprised that

393
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:47,480
Speaker 1: it went down. You know, we were coming off the

394
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,120
Speaker 1: back of thirteen months at three percent or higher wage growth.

395
00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:52,760
Speaker 1: I was surprised and a bit disappointed in the decline.

396
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:55,199
Speaker 1: What I would tell you we're seeing, you know, in

397
00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 1: the conversations we're having with clients across the country, is

398
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:02,159
Speaker 1: that they're continuing to turn into non wage benefits. You know,

399
00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:04,720
Speaker 1: wages are are growing a bit, but they're turning to

400
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:07,639
Speaker 1: non wage. The fastest growing non wage benefit in the

401
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:11,119
Speaker 1: country today is remote working. UM. So we're seeing flexibility

402
00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,600
Speaker 1: come front and center UM to try to attract talent.

403
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 1: So going forward, where do you think the momentum is.

404
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:19,600
Speaker 1: Is it to the slowing downside or is it to

405
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 1: the increasingly tight and we're going to get higher wages side. Yes,

406
00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:25,200
Speaker 1: I think we're going to see both. You know, we're

407
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:27,640
Speaker 1: living in unprecedented times and we haven't seen this kind

408
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,760
Speaker 1: of unemployment in fifty years. UM. So we did see

409
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 1: some softening and manufacturing UM retail, while softened transportation, warehouse,

410
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 1: you know, was up sixteen thousand jobs. We've seen significant

411
00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:43,359
Speaker 1: growth fare as the growth shifts to e commerce. And

412
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:46,639
Speaker 1: that's interesting because the season, the retail hiring season for

413
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:49,680
Speaker 1: seasonal has started much earlier than we've seen in the past, so,

414
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:52,679
Speaker 1: you know, indicating people are truly shifting to a calm.

415
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,520
Speaker 1: So I think we'll see you know, further I mean

416
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:58,359
Speaker 1: three point five. I hesitate because what does further tightening

417
00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:00,080
Speaker 1: look like. I can tell you that we feel it.

418
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 1: We continue to have high demand, increasing demand UM, but

419
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:06,320
Speaker 1: it is becoming harder to fill job to job because

420
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:07,840
Speaker 1: we have you know, we need to bring more people

421
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 1: into the workforce. That's that's the solution. So Becky Lesha

422
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:13,440
Speaker 1: and I we speak to UM a lot of corporate

423
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:16,600
Speaker 1: executives and business owners and they say that, you know

424
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 1: that one of the biggest challenge is in fact finding

425
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 1: qualified UM employees for their businesses. What's is the sense

426
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 1: that the job creation here we're seeing our companies that

427
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 1: you talked, are they finding the right types of people

428
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:34,439
Speaker 1: that they're looking for? Yeah, So we do. We do

429
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 1: a survey every year. So this year when we looked

430
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 1: at what we call talent shortage of American executives said

431
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 1: they can't find the talent they need. So that and

432
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 1: I anticipate when we repeat the survey, that's going to

433
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:49,359
Speaker 1: become even a stronger indicator because it is difficult to

434
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 1: find skills. At the same time, I would say, we're

435
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:56,200
Speaker 1: talking to clients around you know, what is truly required

436
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 1: for a position versus desired for a position, And those

437
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:01,879
Speaker 1: are the conversations that say, you know, do you do

438
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:05,480
Speaker 1: you truly need a master's degree to do this position?

439
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 1: Do you truly need you know, ten years experience and engineering?

440
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 1: And we're having to engage in that detail of conversation

441
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,400
Speaker 1: to make sure that our clients are opening their aperture

442
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,160
Speaker 1: to the talent that you know could come into the market.

443
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:20,080
Speaker 1: And you know, the client of the candidates that we're

444
00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 1: placing now are coming from another job. So I t

445
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:24,919
Speaker 1: there's one percent unemployment in it. So you know, if

446
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,359
Speaker 1: you have an interest in it, there are jobs out there.

447
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:29,680
Speaker 1: The challenges how do you attract talent, you know, from

448
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:33,120
Speaker 1: one place to another. So it raises the question of

449
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:36,640
Speaker 1: investing in training programs. And even though that that kind

450
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:40,040
Speaker 1: of expenditure has picked up a bit over the years,

451
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 1: it's still is well below where it was, say, twenty

452
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,359
Speaker 1: thirty years ago in the United States. And I'm just

453
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 1: wondering whether you think that companies are getting more amenable

454
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,639
Speaker 1: to the idea of spending on training programs. Yeah. So

455
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:56,160
Speaker 1: we've seen more commitment to up skill in the last

456
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 1: two months, and we've seen in the last two years.

457
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,280
Speaker 1: And so when you say getting more and then bowl

458
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:04,439
Speaker 1: the the conversation is accelerating. The time is now now

459
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 1: the time for action. The other challenge that I think

460
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 1: American employers are having is the way we've done training

461
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 1: in the past is more at a point in time

462
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 1: and the return is expected to last over you know,

463
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 1: three to five years. Now that skills are changing at

464
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:21,560
Speaker 1: the pace of technology, that return, the investment has to

465
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:23,879
Speaker 1: be at a shorter period of time, just in time,

466
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 1: and it's going to have to be more frequent. So

467
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 1: we we are engaged in conversations now around that the

468
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:31,879
Speaker 1: way the actual fashion of training has to change in

469
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,199
Speaker 1: our country because you know, the return is not going

470
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 1: to be over three to five years, it's going to

471
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 1: be over one year and then it's going to change again.

472
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 1: So Becky, just finally, just are you starting to see

473
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 1: people that maybe we're sitting on the sidelines starting to

474
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 1: come back into the workforce and looking for jobs given

475
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 1: how strong the market is. Yes, I would say that's

476
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 1: the single biggest challenge for our country is we need

477
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 1: to bring people off the sidelines. You know. BLS this

478
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 1: morning said labor force participation. Remain flat um that that

479
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:58,719
Speaker 1: is what we have to do. And part of that is,

480
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 1: you know, looking went again what's desired versus what's required,

481
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:05,680
Speaker 1: Helping clients as well as candidates understand that you don't

482
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 1: have to have all ten boxes checked on before you

483
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 1: apply for the job. The time is now. If you

484
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 1: have six of the ten, lean in, lean into your

485
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:16,159
Speaker 1: skills and what you bring to the table versus the

486
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:19,640
Speaker 1: specific experience it's required, and put yourself forward for a job.

487
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:22,119
Speaker 1: Thank you, Franko Witz. Thank you so much for joining us.

488
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 1: We really appreciate you taking the time out today. Becky

489
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,399
Speaker 1: is the president of man Power Group North America. Thanks

490
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You

491
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 1: can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or

492
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 1: whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Paul Sweeney, I'm on

493
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,000
Speaker 1: Twitter at pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa bram Woyd's I'm on

494
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,920
Speaker 1: Twitter at Lisa bram Woyds one before the podcast. You

495
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,440
Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio