1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,799 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Well, we do have 7 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: this economy gradually reopening, and the discussion is shifting more 8 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:32,120 Speaker 1: and more about how people will come back to work. 9 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:34,519 Speaker 1: Will they come back to the office, is to what degree, 10 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 1: under what schedule? Lots of different models out there being discussed. 11 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:43,240 Speaker 1: Erica Volini, Gloomal, Global Human Capital leader at Deloitte, joins 12 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:45,760 Speaker 1: us on the phone from Phoenix. Erica, thanks so much 13 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:48,880 Speaker 1: for joining us. I'd love to get your thoughts about 14 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:52,600 Speaker 1: what your clients are telling you about how they plan 15 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: to bring their employees back to work as this economy 16 00:00:56,760 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 1: gradually reopens. Thanks that. I think the keyword is flexibility. 17 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 1: UM employers are thinking very carefully about how to set 18 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 1: a flex way of working. We're seeing this across the board. UM. 19 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 1: The question is the degree of flexibility that's going to 20 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:18,959 Speaker 1: be offered, whether it's a finite you can come back, 21 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 1: you know you work from home X number of days 22 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:23,760 Speaker 1: a week, or whether it's going to be ultimate flexibility, 23 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 1: do your job as you think it's best to do it. 24 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: I think are the questions that are out there. But 25 00:01:29,160 --> 00:01:33,760 Speaker 1: there is definitely a recognition that workers want more choice 26 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,399 Speaker 1: in terms of how they do their work, um, and 27 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 1: where they do their work. I'd love to be in 28 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 1: Phoenix to tell you the truth, Erica. Do you see 29 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:47,119 Speaker 1: so many people talked about at least a move to Florida, 30 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 1: going down to Texas, to Arizona, to California. Do you 31 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 1: see big business hubs actually spreading out a little bit? 32 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 1: I think there's a recognition that geography, especially in a 33 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 1: world of more remote work, becomes less critical. Right. Office 34 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 1: proximity is not a defining factor in terms of whether 35 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 1: you can get a job. I think we're seeing migration 36 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 1: to other other areas, um for sure. But there are 37 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 1: tax implications, UM. There are benefit implications right that employers 38 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 1: have to work through, and I think we're gonna see 39 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 1: that over the next few months lash years as employers 40 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:31,359 Speaker 1: try to figure out exactly how much flexibility they want 41 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:34,360 Speaker 1: to give. But the benefit is huge. Think about the 42 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 1: ability to tap into labor markets that have historically not 43 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:41,959 Speaker 1: been available to these organizations. UH, fresh labor pools UM 44 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 1: individuals who want to be reskilled and retrained and be 45 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 1: able to enter into the to the workforce in different 46 00:02:47,560 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 1: types of jobs. So I think we will see UM 47 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:54,360 Speaker 1: much more flexibility in organizations saying you don't have to 48 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:58,080 Speaker 1: be geographically close to where the office is. What are 49 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 1: you hearing from employee ease erica? Are they going to 50 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:05,800 Speaker 1: revolt if they're told to come back into the office after, 51 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 1: you know, twelve plus months of working from home. I 52 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:12,359 Speaker 1: think revolts is a strong word, and I don't think 53 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:14,600 Speaker 1: it's necessarily just about can I work from home or 54 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 1: can't I. I think what workers are going to say 55 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 1: is you need to be caring for me. You need 56 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 1: to focus on my well being. You know, our global 57 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 1: Human Capital Trends report at Deloitte is showing us that 58 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 1: well being is the number one trend. UM. Workers are 59 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:34,639 Speaker 1: expressing they need their well being cared for. UM. They 60 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 1: need to know they have flexibility to deal with what 61 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 1: they have in their lives, and so what they're asking 62 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:44,520 Speaker 1: for from employers is understand my needs and give me 63 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 1: the ability to flex as I need to to be 64 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 1: able to make those meet those needs and also be 65 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 1: productive at work. And I think what we've learned in 66 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 1: the past year is that is possible. Um, you know, 67 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 1: with the right um leadership, with the right programs and 68 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 1: pray placed, the right policies, and frankly, with a degree 69 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 1: of trust and empowerment for workers. And I think that's 70 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:08,240 Speaker 1: the main theme we're hearing from workers right now. What 71 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 1: do you think we're gonna see in terms of female employees? 72 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 1: I mean, um, I've heard so many stories about bankers, 73 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 1: women who are paid a lot, and they were forced 74 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 1: to decide between childcare and going into work. They chose 75 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 1: childcare and gave up those big paychecks. I myself just 76 00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:30,480 Speaker 1: had a baby. My wife took a year off to 77 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 1: take care of the kid. I took a month um 78 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 1: because I'm lazy. Her job is so much harder than mine. Um, 79 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 1: are we gonna see big changes there? We just saw 80 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 1: Volvo USA, for example, getting twenty four weeks two men 81 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 1: or women when they have a baby. I think so. 82 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 1: I mean, I have a two and a half year old, 83 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:54,559 Speaker 1: so I completely understand being a working woman. Listen, I think, um, 84 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:56,839 Speaker 1: you know, Kamala Harris called it a crisis, the number 85 00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 1: of women that are leaving the economy. I think it 86 00:04:59,839 --> 00:05:06,160 Speaker 1: is organizations recognize that having a diverse workforce is critical 87 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:09,479 Speaker 1: to innovation and creativity. So I think employers are gonna 88 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 1: lean in. I think it's going to be in the 89 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 1: form of, you know, we're going to take a closer 90 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:17,719 Speaker 1: look at childcare, at benefits, giving that level of flexibility. 91 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:20,080 Speaker 1: I also think we're going to see and have seen 92 00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:24,680 Speaker 1: deliberate efforts by organizations to hire women UM and to 93 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 1: create programs to hire women into positions to make sure 94 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:30,599 Speaker 1: UM that we are getting that kind of equity in 95 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:33,560 Speaker 1: the workplace. So that's absolutely going to be UM an 96 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:36,360 Speaker 1: uptick in what we're seeing. What we have to realize 97 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:38,960 Speaker 1: is it's not just about hiring though, it's also about 98 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 1: reskilling and retraining. You know, UM, the majority of employers 99 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 1: are staying their biggest issue is having the right workers 100 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 1: with the right set of skills and capabilities to be 101 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 1: able to do the jobs of the future. And we're 102 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 1: going to need to see massive investments in reskilling and 103 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 1: retraining to be able to make all of this happen. 104 00:05:57,360 --> 00:05:59,279 Speaker 1: And I think that can't be lost. As I look 105 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:01,600 Speaker 1: at the you know, Biden's latest plan, I see a 106 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:05,279 Speaker 1: hundred billion dollars for worker training. Is that enough? Um? 107 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:07,280 Speaker 1: You know, do we need to invest more? What's the 108 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 1: role of organizations playing? And that? I think those are 109 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 1: all big questions that need to be answered. So it's interesting, Erica. 110 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 1: You know, in the beginning of this pandemic, we heard 111 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:18,839 Speaker 1: from some of the technology companies that said, okay, folks, 112 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 1: if you want to leave Silicon Valley and work remotely 113 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: and you know, from Boise, Idaho or something, we're gonna 114 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:28,480 Speaker 1: have to adjust your compensation for the different costs of living. 115 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 1: What are we seeing from corporate America as they think 116 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 1: about a remote workforce. Absolutely, I mean geographic pay differentials 117 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 1: I think are a hot topic right now. I think 118 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 1: we will, on the whole start to see adjustments. If 119 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 1: people are living in lower cost locations, their pay will 120 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 1: be adjusted accordingly to reflect costs of living. And I 121 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 1: wouldn't accept that, Erica, You know what, because no, you 122 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:58,840 Speaker 1: you gotta pay me what I'm worth. Don't worry about 123 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 1: where I live. If I'm del ever ring, then I 124 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 1: want the money. You know, it doesn't matter if I 125 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:08,240 Speaker 1: am in Sun Valley or in Silicon Valley. UM, I've 126 00:07:08,240 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 1: been hearing this for a while, and I hope they 127 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 1: I hope they pushed back a little. I think this 128 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:14,280 Speaker 1: is gonna be This is going to be the debate 129 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:17,239 Speaker 1: UM that's to be had, and you know, we're seeing 130 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 1: organizations on both sides of defense around this. Again. I 131 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 1: think it comes down to UM. You know, the ability 132 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:27,240 Speaker 1: to tap into talent UM. I think it's going to 133 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 1: come down to UM, how critical it is for that 134 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 1: employee to be able to come in and collaborate with 135 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:37,200 Speaker 1: their teammates, and how that's going to be done to 136 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:40,160 Speaker 1: drive the work that they're doing. UM. And then to 137 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 1: your point, it's going to come down to fairness and 138 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:44,800 Speaker 1: and how to help employees get the best out of 139 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 1: their lives right. And these are all factors that are 140 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 1: going to go into this debate. I don't think there 141 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 1: is an easy answer to any of this. I think 142 00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 1: this is a debate that's being had at every C 143 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 1: suite and every board level right now. Erica, do you 144 00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: have any have you seen any companies that just said 145 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: screw it, we're going back of the way it was. 146 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:04,680 Speaker 1: Everybody in the office I mean, certainly we've seen a 147 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:07,960 Speaker 1: couple of CEOs from the major banks that come out 148 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 1: and say, we think you need to come back to 149 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 1: the office. But I think that's going to be the exception, 150 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:15,320 Speaker 1: not the rule. UM. I think most employers are saying, 151 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 1: we've seen flexibility work. UM, we know we need to 152 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 1: focus on well being. I go back to that point 153 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:24,200 Speaker 1: because I think it can't be understated, and I think 154 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 1: they know this is what workers are asking for. But 155 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:29,440 Speaker 1: we have to keep in mind also that it's going 156 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:32,079 Speaker 1: to be hybrid. You know, seventy percent of employers that 157 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:33,600 Speaker 1: we surveyed said they're going to go back to some 158 00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:37,040 Speaker 1: type of hybrid model. I don't think the majority of 159 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:39,960 Speaker 1: employers are going to be all in on site or 160 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 1: all remote, right. Those extremes don't work because that's not 161 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:45,880 Speaker 1: what we've learned during pandemic. What we've learned is we 162 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 1: need flexibility and choice, we need trust and empowerment. That 163 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 1: we don't need managers looking at a worker every single 164 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 1: minute of every single day to make sure they're producing. 165 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 1: That productivity can still be gained in a remote work environment. 166 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:00,840 Speaker 1: That's what we've learned. And so the question is how 167 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 1: do we start to embrace that flexibility and craft policies 168 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:07,320 Speaker 1: that allow for that level of flexibility and empowerment for 169 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:11,160 Speaker 1: the worker. I think that's where we're talking about the revolt, right. 170 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:13,720 Speaker 1: It's are you going to force me to do things 171 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 1: in this one way or are you going to trust 172 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:20,240 Speaker 1: that I have the ability to still produce the output 173 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:23,320 Speaker 1: without being managed every minute of every day. And I 174 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 1: think that's the major shift that we're seeing right now. 175 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 1: Just quickly, Bob Prince said he thinks the US is 176 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 1: in a new environment of state capitalism. I live in Berlin. 177 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 1: We have thirteen months of parental leave, we have seven 178 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 1: six weeks, seven weeks of vacation. This is all enforced 179 00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:41,559 Speaker 1: by the state. Do you think the state is gonna 180 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 1: bring new regulations to how we work in the US? 181 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 1: You know, I don't know. Um, I'm not sure it's 182 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 1: the case. I think um. I think we will see 183 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 1: um different entities, communities, organizations, possibly at the state level 184 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 1: trying to do what they need to do to attract 185 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:02,959 Speaker 1: people to where they live. I think that's going to 186 00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:05,200 Speaker 1: be the big factor, right. I mean, these states want 187 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:07,560 Speaker 1: people to move there, they want the talent to be there, 188 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:10,680 Speaker 1: and so it's not unreasonable to think that they'll start 189 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:13,200 Speaker 1: putting in policies to be able to attract workers, and 190 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:15,679 Speaker 1: hopefully that's going to start to influence the government at 191 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:18,559 Speaker 1: a federal level. I mean, that's that's ultimately I think 192 00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: would be beneficial to everyone. Erica, really important to get 193 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 1: your perspective. Really appreciate you joining us today. Erika Volini 194 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 1: is the global human capital leader at Deloitte. Let's take 195 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:33,760 Speaker 1: a look at the global oil market. Brent crude is 196 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:36,760 Speaker 1: up about seven tenths of one percent todays of barrel 197 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:40,680 Speaker 1: sixty three dollars nineteen cents a barrel. Here, that says 198 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 1: OPEC plus is meeting today, and the headlines coming out 199 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg terminal leading with pet plus agrees to 200 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 1: gradually increase output over the next three months. Let's get 201 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 1: a sense of what that means for these energy markets. 202 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 1: We turn to our expert, and that its Dr ellen Wald, 203 00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:59,640 Speaker 1: president of Transversal Consulting and also a Bloomberg Opinion contributor. 204 00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 1: Ellen thanks so much for joining us here. What are 205 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 1: some of the highlights that takeaways from what you're hearing 206 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 1: coming out of the OPEQUE plus meeting today. Yeah, This 207 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 1: is UH kind of an interesting plot twist, you could say, 208 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 1: because going into the meeting, it seemed like everyone UH 209 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:19,960 Speaker 1: and including even UH from the Saudi Oil Minister, seemed 210 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 1: to be focused on rolling over the current production rates 211 00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:26,959 Speaker 1: UH and not really UM having much guidance. But it's 212 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 1: emerged that it seems that the group is interested in 213 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: doing a gradual increase of production. They're looking at increasing 214 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:38,439 Speaker 1: total production UH three hundred and fifty thousand barrels a 215 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:40,559 Speaker 1: day in May and then again in June, and then 216 00:11:40,559 --> 00:11:44,680 Speaker 1: an even larger jump in July. But what's even more 217 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:48,839 Speaker 1: interesting is that Saudi Arabia is also indicating that UH 218 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:52,440 Speaker 1: it is it's it's currently holding an extra million barrels 219 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:54,920 Speaker 1: a day off the market, that it's going to start 220 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 1: putting that back on the market at the same time, 221 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:00,840 Speaker 1: also in a gradual sense, so we're really actually looking 222 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 1: at it not an insignificant amount of oil coming back 223 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: online in May, June and July. I think what's really 224 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 1: notable though, is that OPEC is actually giving a guidance 225 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:14,760 Speaker 1: for for the next three months of what it plans 226 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:17,520 Speaker 1: to do, and recently they're really only be making decisions 227 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:19,560 Speaker 1: on a month by month basis. I think this will 228 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 1: be very helpful also for U S. Crewde producers which 229 00:12:23,280 --> 00:12:25,080 Speaker 1: have kind of been left in the dark as to 230 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 1: what's going on in terms of the big national producers 231 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:31,680 Speaker 1: have the US, Well, first of all, why aren't we 232 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 1: seeing prices fall? Well, I think it's not all that 233 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 1: much oil that they're they're putting back on the market 234 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 1: to UH and they kind of telegraphed this a little bit. 235 00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 1: We did see Brent kind of go up and down 236 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 1: a bit as the meeting was going on and weeks 237 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:49,600 Speaker 1: were coming out. UM, but I think that in general, 238 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 1: some of the global economic news is more positive these days, 239 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:57,080 Speaker 1: and so we're not seeing Brent react so much to 240 00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 1: the Opeque meeting. So in terms of the U. S. 241 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 1: Shale producers, have they been disciplined and what does the 242 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: what does the output look like? From them? Well, that's 243 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 1: really interesting because production is really stabilized in the US 244 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:14,800 Speaker 1: around the ten point nine to eleven million barrel per 245 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 1: day rate, and that's down from last year where they 246 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:21,199 Speaker 1: were producing thirty million barrels a day, and a lot 247 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:25,079 Speaker 1: of producers it's interesting. They responded to a survey from 248 00:13:25,080 --> 00:13:28,960 Speaker 1: the Dallas Fed saying that they are very hesitant to 249 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 1: put out to increase production, to drill more wells, even 250 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:35,280 Speaker 1: though at at w t I right now is around 251 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 1: sixty dollars barrel, they could very profitably do so, but 252 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:43,120 Speaker 1: they're very hesitant. Both the constant kind of going back 253 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:45,839 Speaker 1: and forth from OPEC is giving the pause, but also 254 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:49,440 Speaker 1: there's a lot of concern about the Biden administration where 255 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 1: they're going with these regulations on federal leasing and and 256 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 1: so forth, and that that's really causing a lot of 257 00:13:56,120 --> 00:14:00,840 Speaker 1: hesitancy among them and not really wanting to band production 258 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:04,320 Speaker 1: even though they could profitably do so. So I'm just 259 00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 1: looking at Brent crude. You know, recently I got up 260 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:08,959 Speaker 1: to around seventy two barrel, we've now pulled back to 261 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 1: sixty three. Is that a function of maybe European reopening, 262 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:17,320 Speaker 1: you know, slower than maybe the market initially anticipated. Gives 263 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 1: a sense of kind of what's driving the market right now, Well, 264 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 1: the market has recently really been kind of fluctuating, going 265 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,080 Speaker 1: up and down a lot, and I do think that, um, 266 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:29,520 Speaker 1: there was a pullback. I think Brent kind of overdid 267 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 1: itself and so there was a pullback in positioning h 268 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:37,320 Speaker 1: and so really the sixty three range stars barrel is 269 00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 1: probably a better place for it than into the mid seventies. 270 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 1: But absolutely the information from Europe about further lockdowns and 271 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 1: travel restrictions is definitely having a damper on prices, though 272 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 1: there is a positive information coming out from the United 273 00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 1: States in terms of travel, uh that really should offset this. 274 00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 1: I want to ask you. You wrote a book Saudi inc. 275 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:07,200 Speaker 1: And you studied UM Middle East, Middle East Energy, and 276 00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:10,800 Speaker 1: Middle East History, Prince, and you taught Middle East UM 277 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 1: history as well at Jacksonville. What do you think about 278 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 1: the Biden administration's approach to the kingdom. Will it change? Well, 279 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 1: it's it's very interesting because they're calling it a reset, 280 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:25,560 Speaker 1: but really, if you look at what they're doing, it's 281 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 1: not all that different from what the previous administration did. 282 00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 1: It's not all that different from from Trump's approach. They 283 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 1: aren't taking a particularly different approach with Saudi Arabia. UM. 284 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:39,760 Speaker 1: You know, both Trump and the Biden administrations have been 285 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 1: very specific about wanting to say, deal with the King 286 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:45,600 Speaker 1: of Saudi Arabia as opposed to the Crown Prince of 287 00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia, which definitely, UM, you know that that's that's 288 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:51,760 Speaker 1: very similar. I don't really see a whole lot of difference, 289 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 1: other than very specifically in terms of the weaponry that 290 00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 1: was being sold that was being used in the Yemen 291 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 1: more so so, I think there are some minor differences, 292 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 1: but in general, they really do seem to be staying 293 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 1: the course. But they won't will they speak with the 294 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: king instead of MBS. I think that was intimated well. 295 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 1: The Trump administration had the same the same line actually 296 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 1: almost to the exact same uh wording that they that 297 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:22,400 Speaker 1: Trump would say, you know, I spoke to the king, 298 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:25,320 Speaker 1: to to King Salmon. I think, um, you know, they 299 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 1: will have to deal with NBS at some point, but 300 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 1: I do think there's a very strong desire to deal 301 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 1: with the guy on top. All right, Ellen, I'm excited 302 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:37,200 Speaker 1: to dig into your book. So it was great that 303 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:40,320 Speaker 1: we had you on as well. Ellen wald Um, she 304 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 1: wrote Saudi Inc. And she's a senior fellow at the 305 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 1: Atlantic Council, President of Transversal Consulting. Now, let's bring in 306 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 1: Timothy fire as the chairman of the Manufacturing Business Survey 307 00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 1: at the Institute for Supply Management and tim the US 308 00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:04,680 Speaker 1: manufact xturing expansion was the fastest we've seen since three 309 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 1: um was this expected, this kind of rebound, Well, you know, 310 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:12,639 Speaker 1: what a fantastic report. I don't think I expected anything 311 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:14,280 Speaker 1: this strong. I mean, the last time we saw p 312 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:17,159 Speaker 1: my number this strong, I was just starting my career 313 00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:20,879 Speaker 1: forty years ago. So a really good number. Had seven 314 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:24,439 Speaker 1: or seven of the ten sub indectis all set modern 315 00:17:24,560 --> 00:17:27,520 Speaker 1: day records, if not all time records. So I really 316 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:30,200 Speaker 1: led by the demand side new orders records. Since June 317 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:34,520 Speaker 1: four we had customer inventories that we're all time records, 318 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:37,679 Speaker 1: the lowest level ever, empty shells everywhere we had, and 319 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:40,199 Speaker 1: we ended up with the backlog at record lows at 320 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:42,920 Speaker 1: the sixty seven point five. So demand is kind of 321 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:46,119 Speaker 1: leading the way here, and manufacturing is leading the country 322 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:49,320 Speaker 1: out of this, you know, this bad situation. You know 323 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:52,359 Speaker 1: it's all systems go. We ended the quarter really well, Yeah, 324 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:55,080 Speaker 1: this is extraordinary. I like your comment him about manufacturing 325 00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:58,560 Speaker 1: leading the way. We that's certainly been the case here. 326 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 1: Is this a case of um our economy gearing up 327 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 1: for what is expected to be a real reopening as 328 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:09,119 Speaker 1: we progress that the year, is this kind of priming 329 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 1: the pump for expected demand? Well, you know we talked 330 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 1: last year in the April May time from about a 331 00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 1: v Shape recovery. Manufacturing absolutely saw the shape recovery. We 332 00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:21,240 Speaker 1: shut down in in April May, and we bounced back 333 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 1: in July and we're fully running by August. So and 334 00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:27,480 Speaker 1: we've continued to climb out since then. And it's it's pure, 335 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,920 Speaker 1: it's demand driven. We're still constrained by labor, not only 336 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:33,840 Speaker 1: had our paneless companies, but out their suppliers. We've got 337 00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:37,640 Speaker 1: transportation constraints because of all the confusion and the expected 338 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:39,800 Speaker 1: phrase that has to occur to keep factories running. But 339 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:42,760 Speaker 1: I think we're into a pure demand driven expansion here 340 00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:45,040 Speaker 1: where I don't really see any end in sight. And 341 00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 1: even when the new order levels start to ease, we've 342 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 1: got to refill all this inventory. I mean, we have 343 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:52,640 Speaker 1: customer inventories way low, our own inventories are way low, 344 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:54,560 Speaker 1: and we got a bunch of backplot we have to 345 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,440 Speaker 1: burn off. So Q two looks really good. Two three, 346 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:00,119 Speaker 1: I would say this time, how difficult is it can be? 347 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:04,000 Speaker 1: Too catch up? I saw that um Ford has been 348 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:06,720 Speaker 1: idling some plants that make the F one fifty. My 349 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:10,160 Speaker 1: heart kind of skipped to beat there. Um They have 350 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 1: a chip shortage that we all know about. But I mean, 351 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,879 Speaker 1: this is a product that people depend on. How much 352 00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 1: of a problem is it. Well, I think you're really 353 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:21,280 Speaker 1: gotta take your hats off with the manufacting people across 354 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 1: the country. They're really struggling. They're working very hard. This 355 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:28,000 Speaker 1: is not an easy job, is blocking intact? When every 356 00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:31,040 Speaker 1: minute of the day new things keep popping up, it's 357 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,440 Speaker 1: like whack them all. You to show up the next morning, 358 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:35,600 Speaker 1: you fix the problem. The next day, there's another problem 359 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 1: that's going to continue for probably another four to six months. 360 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 1: And they do a great job at it, so product 361 00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:43,880 Speaker 1: continues to flow. I mean, we've gotten that customer inventory 362 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,680 Speaker 1: down way too low, But the manufacturing people are out 363 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:48,880 Speaker 1: there trying to get you what you need and they're 364 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:52,400 Speaker 1: pretty good at it. So just be a little patient, absolutely, Tim, 365 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 1: and talk to us about the uh the transportation we've 366 00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:59,439 Speaker 1: we've we've seen lots of stories about ports, backs up, 367 00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 1: backup at ports, rail traffic kind of sitting idle, uh, 368 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:07,560 Speaker 1: containers going back empty. Gives just give us a sense 369 00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:11,400 Speaker 1: of kind of the transportation infrastructure and how that's impacting 370 00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:15,359 Speaker 1: manufactured leaving canals aside. Yes, yeah right, yeah, I'll leave 371 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,280 Speaker 1: this so that's the European problem pripparently not a US problem, 372 00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 1: but generally, when the manufacturing economy starts to heat up, 373 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 1: you see it first in transportation, and the reason is 374 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 1: the factories need need product, but they can't wait a 375 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:28,720 Speaker 1: week for the product to show up in a full truck, 376 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:30,919 Speaker 1: so they tell the transporter go and pick up a 377 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:32,879 Speaker 1: half a truck. Well, that really means need to trucks 378 00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:35,360 Speaker 1: for one delivery, and then it's just kind of compounds 379 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,240 Speaker 1: from there. Since the month of November, we've had increasing 380 00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:42,960 Speaker 1: comments about transportation difficulties. We're now running somewhere around my 381 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:46,760 Speaker 1: general comments are transportation related, and they're up from last month, 382 00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:48,960 Speaker 1: so we definitely have not peaked yet. It's going to 383 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:52,399 Speaker 1: continue into April, probably into May. The indications on the 384 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:55,680 Speaker 1: port issue. Initially we're around May or June. Now it's 385 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:58,360 Speaker 1: looking like maybe Midsummer. But that's all good. It's all 386 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,160 Speaker 1: it's all means that we have supply chain constraints because 387 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:03,560 Speaker 1: we have an abnormal amount of demand. That's all positive. 388 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:07,520 Speaker 1: What kind of pricing comments are you getting inflation? Well, 389 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:09,879 Speaker 1: we only had half a percent of our entire panel 390 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:13,639 Speaker 1: that said prices were down half, so that's that's like 391 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 1: zero and this is like the third month of that, 392 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:17,439 Speaker 1: so we you know, we have some of them are 393 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 1: reporting same. The steel prices continue to grow. The plastics, 394 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,360 Speaker 1: all the petro chemical and plastics areas really impacted by 395 00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 1: the weather that hit the Gulf coast back in February 396 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 1: March about eighteen or some of my general comments were 397 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:35,320 Speaker 1: weather related back to that event, because it was so 398 00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:38,120 Speaker 1: severe on the equipment of machinery that, uh, it takes 399 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,919 Speaker 1: a little while to repair. So prices are gonna continue 400 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:44,360 Speaker 1: to go up. Aluminiums skyrocketing, copper, brass, name things. As 401 00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:47,560 Speaker 1: long as there's demand continuing, you're gonna see ramatul imput 402 00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:50,240 Speaker 1: prices go up. To Hey, Tim, thanks so much for 403 00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:55,560 Speaker 1: joining us. Really interesting report this month showing just extraordinary 404 00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 1: strength coming out of the United States manufacturing sector, continuing 405 00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:01,400 Speaker 1: to strength that we've seen them belows of last year. 406 00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:04,879 Speaker 1: Timp Fury, chairman of the Manufacturing Business Survey for the 407 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:09,240 Speaker 1: Institute for Supply Management based in Miami, Florida, and matt 408 00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:13,320 Speaker 1: It really is amazing how how resilient, uh, the United 409 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 1: States manufacturing base has been. Now let's get out to 410 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 1: Sarah Fryer She's a Bloomberg technology reporter who has been 411 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:27,119 Speaker 1: doing a deep dive into the misinformation spreading across social media, 412 00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:33,480 Speaker 1: specifically Facebook in regards to vaccine. Sarah you Um have interviewed, 413 00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:38,920 Speaker 1: for example, one woman who doesn't believe in vaccine induced 414 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:43,399 Speaker 1: her immunity. Does she get this from Facebook? She gets 415 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:46,680 Speaker 1: this from from Instagram, which is of course owned by Facebook. 416 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 1: What happens here is people fall into the personalization that 417 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:55,439 Speaker 1: Facebook and Instagram provide them. If you start looking into this. 418 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 1: Woman started out looking into holistic medicine alternative treatment. She 419 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 1: felt um bullied by her doctors during a cancer treatment 420 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:07,080 Speaker 1: and was looking for another way to stay healthy. Suddenly 421 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 1: she's getting this information about vaccines that's not really information 422 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 1: at all. It's it's fearing her wrong. And a lot 423 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,119 Speaker 1: of the people who are telling her, oh, you just 424 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 1: need to take this, you know, holistic healing method or 425 00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 1: detox in this method, or um you try these techniques. 426 00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:28,360 Speaker 1: They're selling supplements, they're selling essential oils, they're selling um, 427 00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 1: you know, wellness retreats, and so she's she's not really 428 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:35,119 Speaker 1: getting vinemit information from doctors, and we're seeing that happen 429 00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:38,560 Speaker 1: a lot on Facebook. It's more about the fear um. 430 00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,159 Speaker 1: The kind of messages that spread on Facebook are the 431 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 1: ones that that make people comments and share. That's what 432 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:49,840 Speaker 1: tells the New Street algorithm that it's a serious post 433 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:53,960 Speaker 1: that more people should see. And so these lies about 434 00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:57,439 Speaker 1: the vaccine, particularly lies that are targeting women, which we 435 00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:01,680 Speaker 1: can talk about in a second, are are just unable 436 00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 1: to be chanced down by the company. Yeah, that's kind 437 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 1: of where I wanted to ghost Sarah. You know, it's 438 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,520 Speaker 1: just kind of what we're hearing from Facebook here. But first, 439 00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:15,040 Speaker 1: let's why are women being targeted here? Well, it just 440 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,199 Speaker 1: goes to a history of the anti vaccination movement. It 441 00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:22,920 Speaker 1: has always been about scaring women out of giving shots 442 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,879 Speaker 1: on time or at all, to their their newborns and 443 00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:28,520 Speaker 1: their young children. So this is this is a demographic 444 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:32,880 Speaker 1: that is already the subject to information from anti vactors, 445 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:37,399 Speaker 1: and with the COVID nineteen vaccination movement, it's strategic on 446 00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:41,679 Speaker 1: their part. They see that as an adjacent, vulnerable, vulnerable 447 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 1: group and they are telling women that the shot will 448 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:51,640 Speaker 1: affect their fertility um that there's there's some psych protein 449 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:56,560 Speaker 1: in the fider Madorna vaccines that connects to the same 450 00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,800 Speaker 1: kind of protein that creates a human placenta, and therefore 451 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,200 Speaker 1: they were to take it their bodies and becomes confusing, 452 00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:05,520 Speaker 1: and that is just not true. And in many doctors, 453 00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,359 Speaker 1: including five or even itself has put out a statement. 454 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:13,040 Speaker 1: But that scientific explanation of why that's not true. Um, 455 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:17,120 Speaker 1: you filled with with explanations of and we know acid change. 456 00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,920 Speaker 1: That just simply doesn't go viral on Facebook the way 457 00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:24,639 Speaker 1: that that fear does. So much easier to share a 458 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:29,439 Speaker 1: personal story of fear than to share something that's based 459 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:34,200 Speaker 1: in real science. So the concern is one of First 460 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 1: Amendment rights. I guess from Mark Zuckerberg's perspective, right, people 461 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:40,919 Speaker 1: should be able to say what they want, and I 462 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:45,399 Speaker 1: guess whether it's true or not. Um. But then if 463 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:50,800 Speaker 1: you have an algorithm aiming lies at people who are susceptible, 464 00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:55,359 Speaker 1: that becomes something that the government should worry about. Well, 465 00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:57,600 Speaker 1: first of all, let's looks clear up, there is no 466 00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,240 Speaker 1: such thing as the First amountment on Facebook face because 467 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:02,720 Speaker 1: not a government as diusy, they don't have any any 468 00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:05,840 Speaker 1: guarantee for you in terms of the First Amenment of 469 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:10,600 Speaker 1: free speech. Second of all, well, but but Zuckerberg seems 470 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,280 Speaker 1: to want to stick to the principles of the constitution. 471 00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:17,160 Speaker 1: He wants to. But but that's also convenient for Facebook 472 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,000 Speaker 1: because that means they don't have to do as much 473 00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,399 Speaker 1: leading as content and they don't have to take as 474 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:26,199 Speaker 1: much responsibility for for it. Um. What happens on Facebook 475 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:31,600 Speaker 1: is is that this this content, it's not treated neutral 476 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:36,040 Speaker 1: e by the algorithm. You know, it hands off approach 477 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:40,840 Speaker 1: to what happens on Facebook needs the algorithm is in charge, 478 00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:44,200 Speaker 1: and the algorithm is always going to spread that which 479 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:49,800 Speaker 1: generates more engagement, more shares, the things that Facebook needs 480 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,840 Speaker 1: for its own future. They want more revenue, they want 481 00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:59,159 Speaker 1: more engagement, and so so that is the natural, unblenished 482 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:03,920 Speaker 1: version of Facebook. And the rest is enforcements beyond that, 483 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,160 Speaker 1: like who should be a banned where should we put 484 00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:09,760 Speaker 1: labels about what might be fault um. But the core 485 00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,080 Speaker 1: of the product that designs the product is really what 486 00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:15,200 Speaker 1: is that an issue here? And if you we talked 487 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:19,159 Speaker 1: to doctors who are trying to become more social media friendly, 488 00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:23,960 Speaker 1: using Instagram, using Facebook, um, even using Twitter and TikTok 489 00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,440 Speaker 1: to try to spread information that's a little bit more palatable, 490 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,760 Speaker 1: a little bit more shareable. UM. More buzzy, but it 491 00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:36,040 Speaker 1: simply isn't reaching the communities that have already built this personalization. 492 00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:40,760 Speaker 1: Facebook has automatically built personalization for them around what kinds 493 00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:43,680 Speaker 1: of people they listened to, so they're not really getting 494 00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:48,760 Speaker 1: these these good abouts of information into that into that 495 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:52,640 Speaker 1: normal experience. So it's really a tough situation. Yeah, it's 496 00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:55,399 Speaker 1: very difficult. This is something that Facebook and its users 497 00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,720 Speaker 1: have been dealing with for a long time about many topics, 498 00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:03,040 Speaker 1: but this one is very very uh interesting, potentially dangerous. 499 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,200 Speaker 1: Sarah Fryer, thank you so much for joining us. Sarah's 500 00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:09,760 Speaker 1: technology reporter for Bloomberg, Um, you know, covering Facebook and 501 00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,680 Speaker 1: as she wrote a great book on Instagram, I recommend that. 502 00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:16,560 Speaker 1: So she's really really in deep with all things that's 503 00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:18,720 Speaker 1: going on at Facebook. And again, as we try to 504 00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:20,560 Speaker 1: get these vaccine out there, one of the concerns that 505 00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:23,920 Speaker 1: we've heard from many experts from the Johns Hopkins University 506 00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:27,480 Speaker 1: in other places is vaccine hesitancy uh is going to 507 00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,640 Speaker 1: become more and more of an issue, and social media 508 00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:34,200 Speaker 1: certain playing a role there. Thanks for listening to the 509 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews 510 00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:42,440 Speaker 1: with Apple podcasts, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 511 00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:46,920 Speaker 1: Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller. Pet On 512 00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:50,120 Speaker 1: Ball Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, 513 00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio