WEBVTT - The Great Nuclear Winter Debate of 1983 0:00:00.840 --> 0:00:04.040 Welcome to you stuff. You should know front House stuff 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:12.319 Works dot Com. Hey, and welcome to the podcast. I'm 0:00:12.400 --> 0:00:16.520 Josh Clark. There's Charles w Chuck Bryant. Jerry's over there 0:00:16.560 --> 0:00:20.000 somewhere off in the ether. But I don't think on either. 0:00:21.079 --> 0:00:24.440 Just in the ether, trying not to breathe right now. 0:00:24.520 --> 0:00:26.560 We have a tank. It either in here. It would 0:00:26.600 --> 0:00:29.520 be a munch of different podcast. Josh and Chuck's either cats. 0:00:29.600 --> 0:00:32.640 Do they put those things in tanks? Oh? I don't know, 0:00:32.680 --> 0:00:35.200 surely right? No? Is it look like in the bottle 0:00:35.240 --> 0:00:39.560 still like that? I don't know. I don't. Yeah, I 0:00:39.600 --> 0:00:41.879 think you're just having a little butt milk bottle. You 0:00:41.960 --> 0:00:43.880 put it in a rag, you put it in your face, 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:47.080 and then go to happy town. Yeah, exactly. If there's 0:00:47.080 --> 0:00:49.160 any pharmacists out there that want to set us straight, 0:00:49.320 --> 0:00:52.200 let us know how ether comes these days. It's probably 0:00:52.200 --> 0:00:55.200 a gas. Yeah, I imagine it's not like hunter Wis Thompson. 0:00:55.400 --> 0:00:59.080 I think we talked about it before in anesthesia. Probably 0:00:59.080 --> 0:01:02.960 it's a ether asks what a weird start? Yeah, that 0:01:03.040 --> 0:01:05.839 has nothing to do with what we're about to talk about. 0:01:06.800 --> 0:01:08.640 And I was trying to relate it, But there really 0:01:08.680 --> 0:01:11.800 is nothing. One of my favorite favorite topics of all 0:01:11.880 --> 0:01:17.640 time nuclear holocaust from the Cold War? Yeah, what we did? 0:01:17.680 --> 0:01:19.200 We did one in the Cold War, didn't we We've 0:01:19.240 --> 0:01:22.360 done several h Yeah, we we batted around this thing, 0:01:22.400 --> 0:01:26.679 but we've never done a full nuclear holocaust podcast, have we? 0:01:28.080 --> 0:01:33.000 And nuclear holocaust is that's not quite right. That's not 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:34.920 the right way to put it, because what we're talking 0:01:34.959 --> 0:01:39.039 about is actually the after effects from a nuclear holocaust. 0:01:40.240 --> 0:01:43.840 Isn't that the holocaust? I mean, if you want to 0:01:43.880 --> 0:01:47.400 be a purist, the nuclear holocaust is the immediate destruction 0:01:48.160 --> 0:01:51.640 as a result of exploding nuclear bombs over like population 0:01:51.680 --> 0:01:53.440 centers and suff Oh I didn't know that. I thought 0:01:53.480 --> 0:01:56.360 it was the whole kitten cabboodle. I should say, if 0:01:56.360 --> 0:01:58.800 you're a purist and you want to say it, from 0:01:58.840 --> 0:02:02.880 my opinion, that's what a nuclear holiday. Okay, I think 0:02:02.880 --> 0:02:06.760 we know what's going on here. Um. Yeah, Robert Lamb 0:02:06.760 --> 0:02:09.800 wrote this, uh stuff to blow your mind. Yeah. I 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:13.120 have to say. I said, man, way to go on now, 0:02:13.160 --> 0:02:15.359 And I was a good one told him that I did. 0:02:15.400 --> 0:02:18.000 I actually uttered those words. What do you say? Thanks man? 0:02:18.600 --> 0:02:21.480 That's nice. Uh. But the thing that gets me about 0:02:21.560 --> 0:02:24.560 nuclear winner which we will talk about in depth. Um, 0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:28.160 what fascinates me about it, just as much as the 0:02:28.240 --> 0:02:34.200 nuclear winner itself, Chuck, is the controversy debate that that 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:38.760 arose from it throughout the eighties. There's a huge debate, 0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:42.320 debate on the severity debate, Yeah, debate on whether it's 0:02:42.360 --> 0:02:45.120 something to worry about or not. Yeah. Well, I looked 0:02:45.200 --> 0:02:47.480 up because I was like, is does anyone think that 0:02:47.520 --> 0:02:50.639 this is a myth? Out an outright myth? And from 0:02:50.680 --> 0:02:54.560 what I saw in my research is that no, this 0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:57.520 is fact. It's just a dispute. What's a dispute is 0:02:58.600 --> 0:03:01.040 the scenario and the survey already of what would happen, 0:03:01.120 --> 0:03:04.040 But no one says, like, no, there would be no 0:03:04.280 --> 0:03:07.200 nuclear winter, there would be no problems after nuclear bombs. 0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:11.000 So there used to be like back in in the 0:03:11.080 --> 0:03:14.880 early eighties when this was a huge new thing, Um, 0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:20.240 there was a group of scientists who were hawkish, very 0:03:20.320 --> 0:03:22.560 much in favor of the U S building up it's 0:03:22.600 --> 0:03:27.440 nuclear arsenal as much as possible and started a basically 0:03:27.480 --> 0:03:32.079 a pr letter writing campaign to discredit the science behind 0:03:32.120 --> 0:03:34.239 this and the like, these guys don't know what they're 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:36.200 talking about, so what they think that the bomb would 0:03:36.280 --> 0:03:38.360 drop and then like the next day the birds would 0:03:38.360 --> 0:03:42.960 be out. They they they said, initially, yeah, there was 0:03:43.080 --> 0:03:45.200 kind of their position was just a poke holes in 0:03:45.240 --> 0:03:49.280 this and that it wasn't wasn't a it wasn't legitimate science, right, 0:03:49.560 --> 0:03:53.320 it doesn't sound like and then um they Ultimately the 0:03:53.360 --> 0:03:56.240 whole point was that this came from an argument over 0:03:56.560 --> 0:03:59.480 whether the U s should engage in the SDI, the 0:03:59.760 --> 0:04:02.760 t Jeek Defense Initiative or star Wars, which is the 0:04:02.840 --> 0:04:07.120 lasers that shoot nukes from space. Right, they shoot down 0:04:07.200 --> 0:04:11.640 nukes from space? They did? That was another one, Um, 0:04:11.680 --> 0:04:13.600 But that's what the whole thing was. It's the context 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:15.960 of it. It It was an argument over what over either 0:04:16.080 --> 0:04:19.000 nuclear disarmament, which Carl Sagan and his friends were in 0:04:19.040 --> 0:04:24.839 favor of, or um nuclear proliferation and the star wars 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:28.960 um program warmongers, the popiece versus the warm But the 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:32.640 weird thing is that this debate, Chuck, took place in 0:04:32.760 --> 0:04:35.919 the pages of like academic journals, and it ended up 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:40.800 being a fight between science and science deniers. Yeah, it 0:04:40.800 --> 0:04:44.120 sounds like the scientists that you mentioned might have been 0:04:45.240 --> 0:04:50.520 had their coffers full from the US government, So potentially 0:04:51.120 --> 0:04:54.600 or private industry or something like that. Um. And the 0:04:54.640 --> 0:04:59.560 thing is is they used this old chestnut where um, So, 0:04:59.640 --> 0:05:03.839 if you're a scientist, there's no certainty in anything you say. 0:05:04.200 --> 0:05:06.600 It can always be disproven. Remember we talked about this 0:05:06.640 --> 0:05:09.600 in the Scientific Method episode. All your stuff can be 0:05:09.640 --> 0:05:14.080 disproven ultimately, which is why it's just a theory. So 0:05:14.120 --> 0:05:18.320 no scientist is going to be like, this is certain. Well, 0:05:18.400 --> 0:05:20.680 these other scientists who are poking holes in it would 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:23.880 point out these guys aren't even certain, which means that 0:05:23.920 --> 0:05:28.599 there's there's disagreement over whether we'll have a nuclear winner 0:05:28.680 --> 0:05:32.320 or not. So they were being very disingenuous in poking 0:05:32.360 --> 0:05:35.040 holes in it by saying these scientists aren't even certain 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:38.080 in their findings. Well, no scientists is certain in their finals. 0:05:38.480 --> 0:05:41.640 But to the public that you think, oh, well, these 0:05:41.680 --> 0:05:44.640 scientists can't say that they're certain, so that they must 0:05:44.640 --> 0:05:47.040 not know what they're talking about, that's dangerous. That's why 0:05:47.080 --> 0:05:50.160 we're at the three minutes to midnight on the doomsday clock. 0:05:50.240 --> 0:05:53.320 It's exactly right because some people might say, well, you're 0:05:53.320 --> 0:05:57.480 not certain, so let's just not act fast enough. Yeah, 0:05:57.640 --> 0:05:59.919 and I should say also check, we should prepare for 0:06:00.000 --> 0:06:03.520 a lot of listener mail because this is a conservative 0:06:03.560 --> 0:06:10.000 flash point. Nuclear winter is long standing one. Oh yeah, great, 0:06:11.040 --> 0:06:14.800 sounds good. Let's talk about this all right. Well, Robert 0:06:14.839 --> 0:06:17.880 starts where most people should start when talking about nuclear winter, 0:06:17.960 --> 0:06:21.960 and that's in the atmosphere. Uh. It's a very finely 0:06:22.040 --> 0:06:26.600 tuned system we have. I want to say it's like homeostasis, 0:06:26.720 --> 0:06:29.520 but um, it's not. People, So I guess it's like 0:06:29.520 --> 0:06:35.160 an ecostasis where the sun. Uh, just enough sun gets 0:06:35.160 --> 0:06:40.520 through to make things, make the earth habitable and proliferate 0:06:40.680 --> 0:06:44.719 with plants and water and humans and animals and all 0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:48.320 kinds of great stuff. Uh. Too much sun, even by 0:06:48.320 --> 0:06:51.760 a little bit, could be catastrophic, and too little sun, 0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:54.440 but even by a little bit could be catastrophic. So we've, 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:58.159 thanks to humans, we've struck a great balance here with 0:06:58.200 --> 0:07:01.240 the sun. A great deal may and you can shine 0:07:01.279 --> 0:07:05.120 to unshine too much sun. Yeah, and it's working out awesome. Uh. 0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:07.360 The idea of nuclear winter is that there would be 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:13.560 enough ash from and smoke. It's really not the fallout 0:07:13.640 --> 0:07:16.360 from the nuclear bombs themselves, from what I understand, it's 0:07:16.360 --> 0:07:19.600 more of the smoke from the resulting fires that would 0:07:19.680 --> 0:07:23.280 cause the blacking out of the sky and the sun 0:07:23.400 --> 0:07:28.680 not getting through it. Yeah, but everything I read across 0:07:28.720 --> 0:07:33.400 the board said it's almost the smoke that goes on. 0:07:35.080 --> 0:07:38.440 It's true. Yeah, I mean you you you shouldn't negate 0:07:38.520 --> 0:07:41.920 the idea that like nuclear radiation poisoning is going to 0:07:42.000 --> 0:07:45.120 kill a lot of people as a result. But the 0:07:45.160 --> 0:07:47.600 blacking out of the skies is due to the smoke 0:07:47.680 --> 0:07:51.120 from fire, exactly from the bomb that happened. Right. So 0:07:51.400 --> 0:07:54.520 this whole thing, the context of it again comes from 0:07:54.600 --> 0:08:00.440 the seventies, right, chuck uh Yeah. In eighties, the yeah 0:08:00.480 --> 0:08:06.000 and and back. And I think that a group issued 0:08:06.040 --> 0:08:09.080 a statement that said, you know, there probably wouldn't be 0:08:09.120 --> 0:08:12.800 that big of a fallout from nuclear explosions. A few 0:08:12.880 --> 0:08:15.240 years after that, another group, I think that the first 0:08:15.240 --> 0:08:18.880 two groups, the National Academy of Scientists. Another group said, 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:22.360 you know what, we don't think that's exactly true. We 0:08:22.400 --> 0:08:26.080 think that there probably is some sort of, um, there 0:08:26.120 --> 0:08:31.040 will be something, but our models are too um primitive 0:08:31.680 --> 0:08:34.040 to say for certain what the fallout would be a 0:08:34.080 --> 0:08:36.839 few years after that, Carl Sagan and his crew get 0:08:36.880 --> 0:08:41.520 together and said, um, no, there's going to be serious consequences. 0:08:41.559 --> 0:08:45.120 And here's what they are billions of lives lost, billions 0:08:45.120 --> 0:08:47.720 and billions, right. And one of the things they based 0:08:47.720 --> 0:08:51.280 this on, this idea on that if you spew a 0:08:51.320 --> 0:08:55.560 bunch of smoke or particulate matter into the atmosphere, that 0:08:55.600 --> 0:09:00.280 it will have a negative um influence on the global climate. 0:09:00.880 --> 0:09:06.959 Is past history from volcanic eruptions. Yes, uh, most noted. Well, 0:09:07.000 --> 0:09:09.200 there are a few over the years, but one of 0:09:09.200 --> 0:09:13.079 the notable ones in eighty three at the time then 0:09:13.080 --> 0:09:19.240 the dust Dutch East Indies now Indonesia Krakatoa. That volcano 0:09:19.400 --> 0:09:24.600 was massive to the tune of thirty six thousand deaths 0:09:24.679 --> 0:09:27.120 just from the volcano. And this is in Krakatoa in 0:09:27.840 --> 0:09:31.160 three Yeah, there's only people there somehow, It's not like 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:36.920 it was super populated. And two thirds of Krakatoa collapsed. Uh. 0:09:36.960 --> 0:09:42.240 The smoke rose up and warmed the global temperature global 0:09:42.640 --> 0:09:46.400 by two point two degrees fahrenheit. I think, No, it 0:09:46.440 --> 0:09:51.400 lowered it, yeah, lowered. Sorry, it took five years uh 0:09:51.400 --> 0:09:55.160 for temperatures to return to normal. And it affected this 0:09:55.240 --> 0:09:59.120 was in Indonesia, and it actually they think increased the 0:09:59.200 --> 0:10:03.440 rainfall in Los Angeles by more than double that next year. 0:10:04.440 --> 0:10:06.920 That's in l A in southern California. So that was 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:10.560 the Krakatoa blast from eight three, right, yeah, and that 0:10:10.679 --> 0:10:13.000 it literally changed the color of the sky for like 0:10:13.200 --> 0:10:17.000 years afterwards. The sky was red um such that they think, 0:10:17.320 --> 0:10:21.240 you know, the scream, the painting the screen. Yeah, yeah, 0:10:21.679 --> 0:10:24.640 the red sky they think that's the way this guy 0:10:24.679 --> 0:10:27.640 looked was because of this volcano. It's so neat that crazy. 0:10:27.760 --> 0:10:31.280 That guy was like, that volcano was crazy. Let's what 0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:33.480 the man is saying. And that's just one of them. 0:10:33.679 --> 0:10:36.760 What was the other one in Mount Tambora. Yeah, Indonesia 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:40.199 once again. Yeah, Indonesia's got bad luck with the volcanoes 0:10:40.240 --> 0:10:42.960 back in the nineteenth century. And this was actually earlier 0:10:42.960 --> 0:10:45.839 in eighteen fifteen. Yeah, I remember learning about this when 0:10:45.840 --> 0:10:48.320 I was a kid, because Ohio got it really bad 0:10:48.960 --> 0:10:52.480 volcano and off in Indonesia in eighteen fifteen and the 0:10:52.520 --> 0:10:55.760 following year much of the United States did not have 0:10:55.800 --> 0:10:58.400 a summer. It was actually called the Year without a Summer. 0:10:58.440 --> 0:11:01.200 In Ohio was affected so well yeah, well yeah, there 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:02.960 was like snow on the ground in the middle of July. 0:11:03.200 --> 0:11:05.360 Do you learn that in state history class? I did? 0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:10.200 I remember that? Uh yeah, Georgia State History. That that 0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:13.480 was like a full course at our school. Half of 0:11:13.480 --> 0:11:15.920 it was just sitting around with the teacher, like staring 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:19.400 off into the distance. I remember ours was just like 0:11:19.840 --> 0:11:24.800 a lot of talk about Crawford Long and the Civil War. Yeah, 0:11:24.840 --> 0:11:27.240 we've even talking about Crawford Long in ours because he 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:33.600 wasn't from Georgia. Anthony Wayne. Yeah, the Battle of Fallen Timbers. Yeah. Uh, 0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:37.920 well that summer without a winter, year without a summer. 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:41.400 Im and then there's some like canals and locks that 0:11:41.520 --> 0:11:44.120 donkeys used to pull barges on. Yeah. I just remember 0:11:44.160 --> 0:11:47.640 Crawford Long and a lot of racism. Yeah basically, yeah, 0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:53.600 uh that's right. So that was Mount Timboro, the year 0:11:53.600 --> 0:11:59.640 without summer. Um. There have been other events like when, um, 0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:04.080 the oil fields burned during the during the war in 0:12:04.120 --> 0:12:07.880 the early nineties. Yeah, apparently Carl Sagan predicted basically a 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:11.480 nuclear winner from that. Yeah, that's pan out. Yeah, that's 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:14.440 where they take some flak. Was um, it was not 0:12:14.600 --> 0:12:17.480 nearly as bad to fall out from nut smoke as 0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:23.080 Sagan predicted. But what can you do but predict. You're 0:12:23.080 --> 0:12:26.240 gonna be wrong. Yeah, occasionally, surely you're going to be wrong. 0:12:26.280 --> 0:12:27.920 It doesn't mean you should be like, oh, well that 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:30.760 smoke didn't do much, so let's start building nuclear bombs again. 0:12:31.840 --> 0:12:34.360 Well that's the whole thing, Chuck. I am so glad 0:12:34.400 --> 0:12:38.520 you said that, because that's the whole mad thing to 0:12:38.679 --> 0:12:42.920 this argument, because it's like, what are you arguing in 0:12:42.960 --> 0:12:46.160 favor for If you're arguing against the idea of what 0:12:46.240 --> 0:12:50.680 precisely are you arguing four? Yeah, like it won't be 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:52.880 that bad. We'll talk a little bit more about it, 0:12:52.920 --> 0:12:55.240 like later on in the show what some people have 0:12:55.320 --> 0:12:58.160 argued about. But it seems like what you say, ultimately 0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:03.079 you're arguing in favor of more nuclear weapons that seems 0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:06.720 wrongheaded by definition. Well not even just that, but using 0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:10.600 them won't be as bad as you say, right, not 0:13:10.760 --> 0:13:13.160 just have them, but well the fallout wouldn't be as 0:13:13.200 --> 0:13:15.959 bad as they all predict, so use them. You almost 0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:18.120 get the impression like they're just like, well, let's just 0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:19.880 find out. Let's just shake a couple off and find 0:13:19.880 --> 0:13:21.760 out what happens. Come on, you'll see him, right, And 0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:26.199 then as they die from smoke inhalation, they say it 0:13:26.320 --> 0:13:33.400 was wrong? What have I done? Oh goodness, let's take 0:13:33.440 --> 0:13:36.320 a break, all right, let's do, and we'll come back 0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:39.520 and we'll talk a little bit more about the nuclear winner. 0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:01.320 I said nuclear ingest, but I know I heard the 0:14:01.360 --> 0:14:03.320 break good stuff, all right. I just want to point 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:05.120 that out because some people might think it was serious, 0:14:06.440 --> 0:14:08.839 and now that you said it was ingest, some people 0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:13.600 are like, maybe that man was my hero. I posted 0:14:13.640 --> 0:14:16.400 something on Facebook the other day that said, you're sciencing 0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:19.880 wrong as a joke, and people called me out there. Look, 0:14:22.760 --> 0:14:25.640 I thought the century you could use like everything is 0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:30.080 a verb. Yeah, that's true. Yeah, people have gotten extremely serious, 0:14:30.120 --> 0:14:34.480 extremely self serious, and I'm a not self serious person. 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:36.880 So I don't fit in in today's world. You're a 0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:41.920 relic all dinosaur. It just a stupid, laughing dinosaur. Speaking 0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:45.120 of dinosaurs, well, I guess we should talk about the 0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:51.240 KT boundary extinction event, which was some people, some in 0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:54.680 science if theorize that that's what happened to the dinosaurs. 0:14:54.840 --> 0:14:58.000 Was there was an impact winter, not quite the same 0:14:58.040 --> 0:15:00.880 as a nuclear winter, but the same effect as a 0:15:00.960 --> 0:15:06.480 nuclear winter due to the impact of an asteroids, right, 0:15:06.680 --> 0:15:09.320 and that would have happened at the border of the 0:15:09.360 --> 0:15:13.960 Cretaceous in Tertiary periods. Again, when the dinosaurs all died 0:15:14.000 --> 0:15:20.360 off still inexplicably. There's no there's no definitive answer. Again, 0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:27.080 though we're talking science, No one found a journal diary today. 0:15:27.240 --> 0:15:30.480 Something is streaking through the sky and it's making everyone nervous. 0:15:31.400 --> 0:15:34.000 It's very hot now. But I noticed the dinosaurs are dying, 0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:37.240 so that's good. Oh this is a dinosaur writing in 0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:43.520 my opinion, so that's bad. Right, Uh okay, So let's 0:15:43.560 --> 0:15:47.440 talk nuclear winner, right, you you you kind of said 0:15:47.480 --> 0:15:51.120 it earlier. But the whole idea behind nuclear winner is 0:15:51.160 --> 0:15:55.440 that if you shoot off nuclear bombs, especially a bunch 0:15:55.520 --> 0:15:58.040 of them. And you have to understand, at the time 0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:03.360 that um scientists were really starting to debate this, there 0:16:03.360 --> 0:16:07.920 were like seventy thousand nuclear warheads, like many, many times 0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:11.720 more nuclear warheads in existence in like the early eighties 0:16:11.880 --> 0:16:14.880 than there were today. And when they started debating them, 0:16:15.040 --> 0:16:20.720 they really took up this cause because the Reagan administration 0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:24.760 was saying, we need the star Wars program because we 0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:32.760 can we can prevent almost with you know, certainty, a 0:16:32.880 --> 0:16:37.520 Soviet nuclear attack with laser guns exactly. And so the 0:16:37.640 --> 0:16:42.440 scientists who were concerned scientists, basically anti nuke scientists, said 0:16:42.680 --> 0:16:44.760 wait a minute, there's something that you guys aren't thinking 0:16:44.800 --> 0:16:48.280 through here. If you do that, the Soviets are gonna say, well, 0:16:48.320 --> 0:16:51.520 wait a minute, if this thing is effective, then we 0:16:51.560 --> 0:16:54.240 need to build up our nuclear arsenal so that when 0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:57.760 we shoot everything we got at them still that ten 0:16:57.800 --> 0:17:01.200 percent will totally annihilate the United States. That the presence 0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:03.880 of the star Wars program was going to to to 0:17:04.520 --> 0:17:07.199 put the nuclear arms race into even higher gear than 0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:11.480 it already was. So they very much took it upon 0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:16.120 themselves to to tackle this with science, but also publicize 0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:19.000 it and sell it to the public. And it's that 0:17:19.000 --> 0:17:23.120 that's stuck in the craw of a lot of other scientists, 0:17:23.480 --> 0:17:26.960 particularly scientists who were in favor of nuclear proliferation as 0:17:27.000 --> 0:17:30.919 a matter of national defense. The point of it is, 0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:35.120 when they tackled this, they said, Um, here's the big 0:17:35.160 --> 0:17:37.000 problem with it. If you shoot off a bunch of 0:17:37.080 --> 0:17:39.560 nuclear bombs, a lot, a lot, a lot of nuclear 0:17:39.560 --> 0:17:41.679 bombs which could totally go off as far as the 0:17:41.720 --> 0:17:46.320 nuclear war is concerned, Um, it's going to cause a 0:17:46.320 --> 0:17:48.919 lot of smoke to enter the atmosphere. And that is 0:17:48.960 --> 0:17:53.080 where this domino effect is going to create this global 0:17:53.119 --> 0:17:57.479 catastrophe and the whole outcome of it is based on 0:17:57.560 --> 0:17:59.920 the number of nukes that you shoot off, which is 0:18:00.080 --> 0:18:04.280 basically what Carl Sagan and his buddy Richard Turco divided 0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:07.320 the different types of nuclear winter into. That's right, Mr 0:18:07.359 --> 0:18:10.160 Sagan and Mr Turko. Are they doctors? Let's just call 0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:13.159 everyone a doctor. Well, yeah, he was. Carl Sagan was 0:18:13.200 --> 0:18:19.200 a doctor of astro chemistry, I believe, and Richard Turco is, Um, 0:18:19.240 --> 0:18:23.040 he's a veterinarian. I can't remember what he was. Uh. 0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:25.800 They wrote a book called A Path Where No Man Thought, 0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:31.399 A Path Where No Man Thought, and uh, that seemed 0:18:31.400 --> 0:18:35.359 like there would be one more word there. Um. And 0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:38.520 they have one to three, four or five six scenarios 0:18:39.280 --> 0:18:43.000 for what a nuclear winter might look like, ranging from 0:18:43.040 --> 0:18:48.880 minimal to extreme. Uh and minimal best case scenario, which 0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:53.040 is just a little bit of a nuclear attack, not 0:18:53.160 --> 0:18:56.879 many bombs going off, maybe like let's say Hiroshima or 0:18:57.000 --> 0:19:03.880 not Kazaking. We'll talk about those were like, yeah, that 0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:07.360 means that there would be minimal cloud cover, uh, not 0:19:07.480 --> 0:19:12.520 much environmental impact globally, and um, the targeted areas would 0:19:12.560 --> 0:19:16.600 be wiped out, of course, but the world itself would 0:19:16.600 --> 0:19:21.200 not have big consequences, right, atmospherically, So if you are 0:19:21.240 --> 0:19:26.120 talking nuclear war, especially a cold war nuclear war, that 0:19:26.200 --> 0:19:30.560 was a fairly unlikely scenario. By the time this the 0:19:31.080 --> 0:19:33.879 early nighties rolls around and people started talking about the 0:19:34.280 --> 0:19:39.119 concept of a nuclear winner, those like Hiroshima Nagasaki level 0:19:39.320 --> 0:19:43.200 nuclear bombs were like attached the average fighter jet. They 0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:47.040 were considered like just tactical, like you just could shoot 0:19:47.080 --> 0:19:49.840 them off on the battlefield if you needed to. So 0:19:49.960 --> 0:19:52.760 the idea that it would just amount to that is unlikely. 0:19:53.080 --> 0:19:56.400 It was, but that's the best case scenario they're trying 0:19:56.440 --> 0:20:00.600 to cover. All. Yes, Number two was marginal all uh 0:20:00.640 --> 0:20:06.320 And that's a few detonations uh again in the northern hemisphere, 0:20:07.160 --> 0:20:09.919 and they said it would lower the temperature by a 0:20:09.920 --> 0:20:14.080 few degrees and there would be some crops in some 0:20:14.160 --> 0:20:17.960 agriculture that suffered, and probably some famine, but it would 0:20:18.000 --> 0:20:21.280 not uh. Oh black rain, of course, but who wants 0:20:21.359 --> 0:20:27.119 that did happen in Hiroshima? Uh? They drank it and 0:20:27.200 --> 0:20:29.560 died from packing it to go. Yes, because it was 0:20:29.680 --> 0:20:32.360 radioactive rain. Yeah, but they drank it because they were 0:20:32.400 --> 0:20:35.800 thirsty because they had no water. It's devastating you and 0:20:35.880 --> 0:20:39.560 everyone should have to go to the city of Hiroshima, Like, 0:20:39.680 --> 0:20:44.560 it is amazing what they've done to to preserve what 0:20:44.760 --> 0:20:48.880 happened there as like a teaching lesson for everyone. Yeah, 0:20:49.000 --> 0:20:51.880 it's really moving. We should have one of those here. 0:20:52.680 --> 0:20:55.760 We should Instead people are like, yeah, Japan forced the 0:20:55.880 --> 0:21:00.360 US to drop the bomb. It's fact, which is not correct, right. 0:21:01.320 --> 0:21:04.560 Uh so black rain would happen in that marginal scenario. Man, 0:21:04.600 --> 0:21:07.400 this is a really political episode, isn't. I think anytime 0:21:07.400 --> 0:21:10.440 you tackle nuclear war it's going to be divisive because 0:21:10.440 --> 0:21:14.280 some people think it's awesome nuke the Wales got a 0:21:14.359 --> 0:21:18.600 nuke something. Things below the equator in that scenario in 0:21:18.640 --> 0:21:22.399 the southern hemisphere would be just fine. So here's something 0:21:22.440 --> 0:21:26.280 that I found really interesting and wrong in this um 0:21:26.320 --> 0:21:30.159 analysis of it. Sagan. I guess he was strictly talking 0:21:30.200 --> 0:21:34.600 about atmospheric effects, but he mentions like famine and stuff 0:21:34.640 --> 0:21:37.679 like that. The thing is that would have a global 0:21:37.680 --> 0:21:41.119 effect for sure, Yeah, the rest of the world. It 0:21:41.320 --> 0:21:44.560 depends in large part on North American wheat and corn. 0:21:45.080 --> 0:21:48.000 So if there's a nuclear fallout in North America that 0:21:48.040 --> 0:21:51.600 affects our crop yields dramatically and causes famin in the US, 0:21:51.880 --> 0:21:55.120 it's gonna cause famine elsewhere to I think what he's 0:21:55.160 --> 0:21:59.840 saying is as far as climatologically speaking, what he in 0:22:00.000 --> 0:22:02.439 Turco or saying is, as long as you're not shooting 0:22:02.440 --> 0:22:07.600 off nuclear bombs in the southern hemisphere, it's gonna climatologically speaking, 0:22:07.680 --> 0:22:12.800 be unaffected or largely inaffective because the wind goes down 0:22:12.840 --> 0:22:14.840 to the equator and then back up like the equator 0:22:14.960 --> 0:22:18.680 separates the hemispheres. As far as the atmosphere is concerned, Yeah, totally, 0:22:18.720 --> 0:22:22.960 there would still be global troubles, yes, Uh, but in 0:22:23.000 --> 0:22:24.840 reading all these scenarios that made me really want to 0:22:24.880 --> 0:22:28.240 move to Australia. Well that's another thing too. How many 0:22:28.280 --> 0:22:30.280 people would be like, I need to get out of 0:22:30.280 --> 0:22:32.399 the United States, so I'm moving down to Mexico, I'm 0:22:32.440 --> 0:22:34.639 moving down to Brazil, or I'm moving down to Australia, 0:22:34.920 --> 0:22:38.000 and then the infrastructure in those countries are just super 0:22:39.080 --> 0:22:42.480 stressed because of the northern hemisphere that survived, and suddenly 0:22:42.520 --> 0:22:46.000 moving down to the southern hemisphere with another widespread effect 0:22:46.320 --> 0:22:48.920 Mexico would help you too much? Though, Well, what weren't 0:22:48.960 --> 0:22:52.000 they like super helpful in uh Independence Day? Was the 0:22:52.080 --> 0:22:56.160 Independence day or the morning or No, the day after tomorrow, 0:22:56.800 --> 0:22:59.800 everybody starts having to move south because North America is 0:22:59.840 --> 0:23:02.360 just frozen n ice sheet. Yeah, but I just mean 0:23:02.400 --> 0:23:05.040 as far as you'd have to go pretty far south, 0:23:05.480 --> 0:23:07.840 further south in Mexico if you want to escape the 0:23:07.880 --> 0:23:12.520 atmospheric fallout. Oh, you're right, so Ecuador. Yeah, Like what 0:23:12.640 --> 0:23:15.560 is it like half of Africa and South America and 0:23:15.600 --> 0:23:20.960 the hemisphere half. Yeah, so the northern hemisphere would show 0:23:21.040 --> 0:23:24.000 up at the southern Hemisphere's doorstep and be like Christmas 0:23:24.040 --> 0:23:26.960 in July. We'll get used to it. That's right. Your 0:23:27.080 --> 0:23:30.640 drain goes the other way when you release the water 0:23:30.680 --> 0:23:34.000 from the tub needo, and I know Christmas doesn't fall 0:23:34.040 --> 0:23:39.920 in July. It was a metaphorical statement everyone. Nominal nuclear 0:23:39.920 --> 0:23:43.480 winners number three, uh, that is what they consider the 0:23:43.520 --> 0:23:48.119 low end full scale nuclear war, but still full scale 0:23:48.280 --> 0:23:52.480 six thousand to twelve thousand nuclear weapons. That's all just 0:23:52.560 --> 0:23:57.399 six to twelve thousand nuclear bombs, and we're talking um 0:23:57.440 --> 0:24:01.280 a megaton or more bombs and a good time was 0:24:01.680 --> 0:24:07.560 um I think fifty Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs combined, So 0:24:07.720 --> 0:24:11.760 twelve thousand times fifty of those for this kind of 0:24:11.960 --> 0:24:16.600 nominal nuclear war. That's a lot of zeros. Uh. They 0:24:16.720 --> 0:24:19.280 predicted noon sunlight would be about a third of what 0:24:19.320 --> 0:24:25.200 it was. Global temperature drops of eighteen degrees. That's bad news, 0:24:25.280 --> 0:24:28.800 my friend. Um, it would destroy a lot of the 0:24:28.840 --> 0:24:33.520 ozone layer. Uh. And again the Southern hemisphere wouldn't experience 0:24:33.640 --> 0:24:37.920 major climactic change. Just cut to the Southern hemisphere. They're 0:24:37.920 --> 0:24:40.600 all at the beach. There's like topical music playing, but 0:24:40.640 --> 0:24:43.600 they have no wheat, right, who needs wheat? When you 0:24:43.680 --> 0:24:48.720 got wrong drinks? Dude, that's a tea shirt. Josh Clark 0:24:48.800 --> 0:24:53.200 said that one uh number four substantial, that is full 0:24:53.240 --> 0:24:58.520 scale nuclear war, UM, freezing temperatures, big time fallout. The 0:24:58.560 --> 0:25:02.800 whole day would be like it's we cast um. Billions 0:25:02.880 --> 0:25:09.280 of humans dead, billions, billions and billions species going extinct um. 0:25:09.320 --> 0:25:17.800 And finally possible damage to the Southern hemisphere finally possibly uh. 0:25:17.800 --> 0:25:20.639 And then the last two we can just bunch together. 0:25:20.680 --> 0:25:24.280 I think severe and extreme um less than one percent 0:25:24.320 --> 0:25:30.360 of the sunlight getting through for months and months on end, 0:25:31.359 --> 0:25:37.800 global temperature dropping, no photosynthesis happening, every crop dying, all 0:25:37.920 --> 0:25:40.680