1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to you stuff. You should know front House stuff 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:12,319 Speaker 1: Works dot Com. Hey, and welcome to the podcast. I'm 3 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: Josh Clark. There's Charles w Chuck Bryant. Jerry's over there 4 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 1: somewhere off in the ether. But I don't think on either. 5 00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:24,440 Speaker 1: Just in the ether, trying not to breathe right now. 6 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 1: We have a tank. It either in here. It would 7 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:29,520 Speaker 1: be a munch of different podcast. Josh and Chuck's either cats. 8 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 1: Do they put those things in tanks? Oh? I don't know, 9 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:35,200 Speaker 1: surely right? No? Is it look like in the bottle 10 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:39,560 Speaker 1: still like that? I don't know. I don't. Yeah, I 11 00:00:39,600 --> 00:00:41,879 Speaker 1: think you're just having a little butt milk bottle. You 12 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:43,880 Speaker 1: put it in a rag, you put it in your face, 13 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: and then go to happy town. Yeah, exactly. If there's 14 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:49,160 Speaker 1: any pharmacists out there that want to set us straight, 15 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:52,200 Speaker 1: let us know how ether comes these days. It's probably 16 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 1: a gas. Yeah, I imagine it's not like hunter Wis Thompson. 17 00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 1: I think we talked about it before in anesthesia. Probably 18 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:02,960 Speaker 1: it's a ether asks what a weird start? Yeah, that 19 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:05,839 Speaker 1: has nothing to do with what we're about to talk about. 20 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 1: And I was trying to relate it, But there really 21 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 1: is nothing. One of my favorite favorite topics of all 22 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:17,640 Speaker 1: time nuclear holocaust from the Cold War? Yeah, what we did? 23 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:19,200 Speaker 1: We did one in the Cold War, didn't we We've 24 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: done several h Yeah, we we batted around this thing, 25 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 1: but we've never done a full nuclear holocaust podcast, have we? 26 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 1: And nuclear holocaust is that's not quite right. That's not 27 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 1: the right way to put it, because what we're talking 28 00:01:34,959 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 1: about is actually the after effects from a nuclear holocaust. 29 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 1: Isn't that the holocaust? I mean, if you want to 30 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 1: be a purist, the nuclear holocaust is the immediate destruction 31 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 1: as a result of exploding nuclear bombs over like population 32 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: centers and suff Oh I didn't know that. I thought 33 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 1: it was the whole kitten cabboodle. I should say, if 34 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 1: you're a purist and you want to say it, from 35 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 1: my opinion, that's what a nuclear holiday. Okay, I think 36 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 1: we know what's going on here. Um. Yeah, Robert Lamb 37 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 1: wrote this, uh stuff to blow your mind. Yeah. I 38 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 1: have to say. I said, man, way to go on now, 39 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:15,359 Speaker 1: And I was a good one told him that I did. 40 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 1: I actually uttered those words. What do you say? Thanks man? 41 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 1: That's nice. Uh. But the thing that gets me about 42 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:24,560 Speaker 1: nuclear winner which we will talk about in depth. Um, 43 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:28,160 Speaker 1: what fascinates me about it, just as much as the 44 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: nuclear winner itself, Chuck, is the controversy debate that that 45 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 1: arose from it throughout the eighties. There's a huge debate, 46 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 1: debate on the severity debate, Yeah, debate on whether it's 47 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 1: something to worry about or not. Yeah. Well, I looked 48 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 1: up because I was like, is does anyone think that 49 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:50,639 Speaker 1: this is a myth? Out an outright myth? And from 50 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 1: what I saw in my research is that no, this 51 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,520 Speaker 1: is fact. It's just a dispute. What's a dispute is 52 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 1: the scenario and the survey already of what would happen, 53 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 1: But no one says, like, no, there would be no 54 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 1: nuclear winter, there would be no problems after nuclear bombs. 55 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 1: So there used to be like back in in the 56 00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 1: early eighties when this was a huge new thing, Um, 57 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 1: there was a group of scientists who were hawkish, very 58 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 1: much in favor of the U S building up it's 59 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 1: nuclear arsenal as much as possible and started a basically 60 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:32,079 Speaker 1: a pr letter writing campaign to discredit the science behind 61 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:34,239 Speaker 1: this and the like, these guys don't know what they're 62 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 1: talking about, so what they think that the bomb would 63 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 1: drop and then like the next day the birds would 64 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 1: be out. They they they said, initially, yeah, there was 65 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 1: kind of their position was just a poke holes in 66 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 1: this and that it wasn't wasn't a it wasn't legitimate science, right, 67 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 1: it doesn't sound like and then um they Ultimately the 68 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 1: whole point was that this came from an argument over 69 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: whether the U s should engage in the SDI, the 70 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 1: t Jeek Defense Initiative or star Wars, which is the 71 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 1: lasers that shoot nukes from space. Right, they shoot down 72 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 1: nukes from space? They did? That was another one, Um, 73 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 1: But that's what the whole thing was. It's the context 74 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:15,960 Speaker 1: of it. It It was an argument over what over either 75 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 1: nuclear disarmament, which Carl Sagan and his friends were in 76 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:24,839 Speaker 1: favor of, or um nuclear proliferation and the star wars 77 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 1: um program warmongers, the popiece versus the warm But the 78 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 1: weird thing is that this debate, Chuck, took place in 79 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:35,919 Speaker 1: the pages of like academic journals, and it ended up 80 00:04:36,000 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 1: being a fight between science and science deniers. Yeah, it 81 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:44,120 Speaker 1: sounds like the scientists that you mentioned might have been 82 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 1: had their coffers full from the US government, So potentially 83 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:54,600 Speaker 1: or private industry or something like that. Um. And the 84 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 1: thing is is they used this old chestnut where um, So, 85 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:03,839 Speaker 1: if you're a scientist, there's no certainty in anything you say. 86 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:06,600 Speaker 1: It can always be disproven. Remember we talked about this 87 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,600 Speaker 1: in the Scientific Method episode. All your stuff can be 88 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 1: disproven ultimately, which is why it's just a theory. So 89 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 1: no scientist is going to be like, this is certain. Well, 90 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:20,680 Speaker 1: these other scientists who are poking holes in it would 91 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 1: point out these guys aren't even certain, which means that 92 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:28,599 Speaker 1: there's there's disagreement over whether we'll have a nuclear winner 93 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 1: or not. So they were being very disingenuous in poking 94 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:35,040 Speaker 1: holes in it by saying these scientists aren't even certain 95 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 1: in their findings. Well, no scientists is certain in their finals. 96 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 1: But to the public that you think, oh, well, these 97 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 1: scientists can't say that they're certain, so that they must 98 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:47,040 Speaker 1: not know what they're talking about, that's dangerous. That's why 99 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:50,160 Speaker 1: we're at the three minutes to midnight on the doomsday clock. 100 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 1: It's exactly right because some people might say, well, you're 101 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:57,480 Speaker 1: not certain, so let's just not act fast enough. Yeah, 102 00:05:57,640 --> 00:05:59,919 Speaker 1: and I should say also check, we should prepare for 103 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 1: a lot of listener mail because this is a conservative 104 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 1: flash point. Nuclear winter is long standing one. Oh yeah, great, 105 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 1: sounds good. Let's talk about this all right. Well, Robert 106 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:17,880 Speaker 1: starts where most people should start when talking about nuclear winter, 107 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 1: and that's in the atmosphere. Uh. It's a very finely 108 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:26,600 Speaker 1: tuned system we have. I want to say it's like homeostasis, 109 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 1: but um, it's not. People, So I guess it's like 110 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:35,160 Speaker 1: an ecostasis where the sun. Uh, just enough sun gets 111 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 1: through to make things, make the earth habitable and proliferate 112 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:44,719 Speaker 1: with plants and water and humans and animals and all 113 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 1: kinds of great stuff. Uh. Too much sun, even by 114 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 1: a little bit, could be catastrophic, and too little sun, 115 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 1: but even by a little bit could be catastrophic. So we've, 116 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:58,159 Speaker 1: thanks to humans, we've struck a great balance here with 117 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:01,240 Speaker 1: the sun. A great deal may and you can shine 118 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 1: to unshine too much sun. Yeah, and it's working out awesome. Uh. 119 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 1: The idea of nuclear winter is that there would be 120 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 1: enough ash from and smoke. It's really not the fallout 121 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 1: from the nuclear bombs themselves, from what I understand, it's 122 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:19,600 Speaker 1: more of the smoke from the resulting fires that would 123 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 1: cause the blacking out of the sky and the sun 124 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 1: not getting through it. Yeah, but everything I read across 125 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: the board said it's almost the smoke that goes on. 126 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 1: It's true. Yeah, I mean you you you shouldn't negate 127 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 1: the idea that like nuclear radiation poisoning is going to 128 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 1: kill a lot of people as a result. But the 129 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: blacking out of the skies is due to the smoke 130 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 1: from fire, exactly from the bomb that happened. Right. So 131 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 1: this whole thing, the context of it again comes from 132 00:07:54,600 --> 00:08:00,440 Speaker 1: the seventies, right, chuck uh Yeah. In eighties, the yeah 133 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 1: and and back. And I think that a group issued 134 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 1: a statement that said, you know, there probably wouldn't be 135 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 1: that big of a fallout from nuclear explosions. A few 136 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 1: years after that, another group, I think that the first 137 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 1: two groups, the National Academy of Scientists. Another group said, 138 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:22,360 Speaker 1: you know what, we don't think that's exactly true. We 139 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:26,080 Speaker 1: think that there probably is some sort of, um, there 140 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 1: will be something, but our models are too um primitive 141 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 1: to say for certain what the fallout would be a 142 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:36,839 Speaker 1: few years after that, Carl Sagan and his crew get 143 00:08:36,880 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 1: together and said, um, no, there's going to be serious consequences. 144 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:45,120 Speaker 1: And here's what they are billions of lives lost, billions 145 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 1: and billions, right. And one of the things they based 146 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 1: this on, this idea on that if you spew a 147 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:55,560 Speaker 1: bunch of smoke or particulate matter into the atmosphere, that 148 00:08:55,600 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 1: it will have a negative um influence on the global climate. 149 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:06,959 Speaker 1: Is past history from volcanic eruptions. Yes, uh, most noted. Well, 150 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,200 Speaker 1: there are a few over the years, but one of 151 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:13,079 Speaker 1: the notable ones in eighty three at the time then 152 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 1: the dust Dutch East Indies now Indonesia Krakatoa. That volcano 153 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 1: was massive to the tune of thirty six thousand deaths 154 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:27,120 Speaker 1: just from the volcano. And this is in Krakatoa in 155 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 1: three Yeah, there's only people there somehow, It's not like 156 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:36,920 Speaker 1: it was super populated. And two thirds of Krakatoa collapsed. Uh. 157 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 1: The smoke rose up and warmed the global temperature global 158 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:46,400 Speaker 1: by two point two degrees fahrenheit. I think, No, it 159 00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 1: lowered it, yeah, lowered. Sorry, it took five years uh 160 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 1: for temperatures to return to normal. And it affected this 161 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 1: was in Indonesia, and it actually they think increased the 162 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:03,440 Speaker 1: rainfall in Los Angeles by more than double that next year. 163 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 1: That's in l A in southern California. So that was 164 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:10,560 Speaker 1: the Krakatoa blast from eight three, right, yeah, and that 165 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:13,000 Speaker 1: it literally changed the color of the sky for like 166 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 1: years afterwards. The sky was red um such that they think, 167 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:21,240 Speaker 1: you know, the scream, the painting the screen. Yeah, yeah, 168 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:24,640 Speaker 1: the red sky they think that's the way this guy 169 00:10:24,679 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 1: looked was because of this volcano. It's so neat that crazy. 170 00:10:27,760 --> 00:10:31,280 Speaker 1: That guy was like, that volcano was crazy. Let's what 171 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 1: the man is saying. And that's just one of them. 172 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:36,760 Speaker 1: What was the other one in Mount Tambora. Yeah, Indonesia 173 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:40,199 Speaker 1: once again. Yeah, Indonesia's got bad luck with the volcanoes 174 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 1: back in the nineteenth century. And this was actually earlier 175 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:45,839 Speaker 1: in eighteen fifteen. Yeah, I remember learning about this when 176 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:48,320 Speaker 1: I was a kid, because Ohio got it really bad 177 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 1: volcano and off in Indonesia in eighteen fifteen and the 178 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,760 Speaker 1: following year much of the United States did not have 179 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 1: a summer. It was actually called the Year without a Summer. 180 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:01,200 Speaker 1: In Ohio was affected so well yeah, well yeah, there 181 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 1: was like snow on the ground in the middle of July. 182 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 1: Do you learn that in state history class? I did? 183 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 1: I remember that? Uh yeah, Georgia State History. That that 184 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 1: was like a full course at our school. Half of 185 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:15,920 Speaker 1: it was just sitting around with the teacher, like staring 186 00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 1: off into the distance. I remember ours was just like 187 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 1: a lot of talk about Crawford Long and the Civil War. Yeah, 188 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 1: we've even talking about Crawford Long in ours because he 189 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 1: wasn't from Georgia. Anthony Wayne. Yeah, the Battle of Fallen Timbers. Yeah. Uh, 190 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 1: well that summer without a winter, year without a summer. 191 00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 1: Im and then there's some like canals and locks that 192 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 1: donkeys used to pull barges on. Yeah. I just remember 193 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 1: Crawford Long and a lot of racism. Yeah basically, yeah, 194 00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:53,600 Speaker 1: uh that's right. So that was Mount Timboro, the year 195 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 1: without summer. Um. There have been other events like when, um, 196 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:04,080 Speaker 1: the oil fields burned during the during the war in 197 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 1: the early nineties. Yeah, apparently Carl Sagan predicted basically a 198 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 1: nuclear winner from that. Yeah, that's pan out. Yeah, that's 199 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:14,440 Speaker 1: where they take some flak. Was um, it was not 200 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 1: nearly as bad to fall out from nut smoke as 201 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:23,080 Speaker 1: Sagan predicted. But what can you do but predict. You're 202 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 1: gonna be wrong. Yeah, occasionally, surely you're going to be wrong. 203 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:27,920 Speaker 1: It doesn't mean you should be like, oh, well that 204 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 1: smoke didn't do much, so let's start building nuclear bombs again. 205 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 1: Well that's the whole thing, Chuck. I am so glad 206 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:38,520 Speaker 1: you said that, because that's the whole mad thing to 207 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 1: this argument, because it's like, what are you arguing in 208 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 1: favor for If you're arguing against the idea of what 209 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:50,680 Speaker 1: precisely are you arguing four? Yeah, like it won't be 210 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 1: that bad. We'll talk a little bit more about it, 211 00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:55,240 Speaker 1: like later on in the show what some people have 212 00:12:55,320 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 1: argued about. But it seems like what you say, ultimately 213 00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:03,079 Speaker 1: you're arguing in favor of more nuclear weapons that seems 214 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:06,720 Speaker 1: wrongheaded by definition. Well not even just that, but using 215 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:10,600 Speaker 1: them won't be as bad as you say, right, not 216 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 1: just have them, but well the fallout wouldn't be as 217 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:15,959 Speaker 1: bad as they all predict, so use them. You almost 218 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:18,120 Speaker 1: get the impression like they're just like, well, let's just 219 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 1: find out. Let's just shake a couple off and find 220 00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:21,760 Speaker 1: out what happens. Come on, you'll see him, right, And 221 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:26,199 Speaker 1: then as they die from smoke inhalation, they say it 222 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 1: was wrong? What have I done? Oh goodness, let's take 223 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:36,320 Speaker 1: a break, all right, let's do, and we'll come back 224 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 1: and we'll talk a little bit more about the nuclear winner. 225 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:01,320 Speaker 1: I said nuclear ingest, but I know I heard the 226 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:03,320 Speaker 1: break good stuff, all right. I just want to point 227 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 1: that out because some people might think it was serious, 228 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:08,839 Speaker 1: and now that you said it was ingest, some people 229 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:13,600 Speaker 1: are like, maybe that man was my hero. I posted 230 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 1: something on Facebook the other day that said, you're sciencing 231 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,880 Speaker 1: wrong as a joke, and people called me out there. Look, 232 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 1: I thought the century you could use like everything is 233 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 1: a verb. Yeah, that's true. Yeah, people have gotten extremely serious, 234 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:34,480 Speaker 1: extremely self serious, and I'm a not self serious person. 235 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:36,880 Speaker 1: So I don't fit in in today's world. You're a 236 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:41,920 Speaker 1: relic all dinosaur. It just a stupid, laughing dinosaur. Speaking 237 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 1: of dinosaurs, well, I guess we should talk about the 238 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:51,240 Speaker 1: KT boundary extinction event, which was some people, some in 239 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 1: science if theorize that that's what happened to the dinosaurs. 240 00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:58,000 Speaker 1: Was there was an impact winter, not quite the same 241 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 1: as a nuclear winter, but the same effect as a 242 00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:06,480 Speaker 1: nuclear winter due to the impact of an asteroids, right, 243 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 1: and that would have happened at the border of the 244 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:13,960 Speaker 1: Cretaceous in Tertiary periods. Again, when the dinosaurs all died 245 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 1: off still inexplicably. There's no there's no definitive answer. Again, 246 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 1: though we're talking science, No one found a journal diary today. 247 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 1: Something is streaking through the sky and it's making everyone nervous. 248 00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 1: It's very hot now. But I noticed the dinosaurs are dying, 249 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 1: so that's good. Oh this is a dinosaur writing in 250 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 1: my opinion, so that's bad. Right, Uh okay, So let's 251 00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 1: talk nuclear winner, right, you you you kind of said 252 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 1: it earlier. But the whole idea behind nuclear winner is 253 00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 1: that if you shoot off nuclear bombs, especially a bunch 254 00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 1: of them. And you have to understand, at the time 255 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 1: that um scientists were really starting to debate this, there 256 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 1: were like seventy thousand nuclear warheads, like many, many times 257 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 1: more nuclear warheads in existence in like the early eighties 258 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 1: than there were today. And when they started debating them, 259 00:16:15,040 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 1: they really took up this cause because the Reagan administration 260 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 1: was saying, we need the star Wars program because we 261 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:32,760 Speaker 1: can we can prevent almost with you know, certainty, a 262 00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:37,520 Speaker 1: Soviet nuclear attack with laser guns exactly. And so the 263 00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:42,440 Speaker 1: scientists who were concerned scientists, basically anti nuke scientists, said 264 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:44,760 Speaker 1: wait a minute, there's something that you guys aren't thinking 265 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 1: through here. If you do that, the Soviets are gonna say, well, 266 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 1: wait a minute, if this thing is effective, then we 267 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 1: need to build up our nuclear arsenal so that when 268 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 1: we shoot everything we got at them still that ten 269 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 1: percent will totally annihilate the United States. That the presence 270 00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:03,880 Speaker 1: of the star Wars program was going to to to 271 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,199 Speaker 1: put the nuclear arms race into even higher gear than 272 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 1: it already was. So they very much took it upon 273 00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:16,120 Speaker 1: themselves to to tackle this with science, but also publicize 274 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:19,000 Speaker 1: it and sell it to the public. And it's that 275 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:23,120 Speaker 1: that's stuck in the craw of a lot of other scientists, 276 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 1: particularly scientists who were in favor of nuclear proliferation as 277 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:30,919 Speaker 1: a matter of national defense. The point of it is, 278 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:35,120 Speaker 1: when they tackled this, they said, Um, here's the big 279 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 1: problem with it. If you shoot off a bunch of 280 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 1: nuclear bombs, a lot, a lot, a lot of nuclear 281 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:41,679 Speaker 1: bombs which could totally go off as far as the 282 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 1: nuclear war is concerned, Um, it's going to cause a 283 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:48,919 Speaker 1: lot of smoke to enter the atmosphere. And that is 284 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 1: where this domino effect is going to create this global 285 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:57,479 Speaker 1: catastrophe and the whole outcome of it is based on 286 00:17:57,560 --> 00:17:59,920 Speaker 1: the number of nukes that you shoot off, which is 287 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 1: basically what Carl Sagan and his buddy Richard Turco divided 288 00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 1: the different types of nuclear winter into. That's right, Mr 289 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:10,160 Speaker 1: Sagan and Mr Turko. Are they doctors? Let's just call 290 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,159 Speaker 1: everyone a doctor. Well, yeah, he was. Carl Sagan was 291 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:19,200 Speaker 1: a doctor of astro chemistry, I believe, and Richard Turco is, Um, 292 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 1: he's a veterinarian. I can't remember what he was. Uh. 293 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 1: They wrote a book called A Path Where No Man Thought, 294 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:31,399 Speaker 1: A Path Where No Man Thought, and uh, that seemed 295 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 1: like there would be one more word there. Um. And 296 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 1: they have one to three, four or five six scenarios 297 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:43,000 Speaker 1: for what a nuclear winter might look like, ranging from 298 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:48,880 Speaker 1: minimal to extreme. Uh and minimal best case scenario, which 299 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 1: is just a little bit of a nuclear attack, not 300 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:56,879 Speaker 1: many bombs going off, maybe like let's say Hiroshima or 301 00:18:57,000 --> 00:19:03,880 Speaker 1: not Kazaking. We'll talk about those were like, yeah, that 302 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:07,360 Speaker 1: means that there would be minimal cloud cover, uh, not 303 00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 1: much environmental impact globally, and um, the targeted areas would 304 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 1: be wiped out, of course, but the world itself would 305 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:21,200 Speaker 1: not have big consequences, right, atmospherically, So if you are 306 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:26,120 Speaker 1: talking nuclear war, especially a cold war nuclear war, that 307 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:30,560 Speaker 1: was a fairly unlikely scenario. By the time this the 308 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,879 Speaker 1: early nighties rolls around and people started talking about the 309 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:39,119 Speaker 1: concept of a nuclear winner, those like Hiroshima Nagasaki level 310 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:43,200 Speaker 1: nuclear bombs were like attached the average fighter jet. They 311 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 1: were considered like just tactical, like you just could shoot 312 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:49,840 Speaker 1: them off on the battlefield if you needed to. So 313 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 1: the idea that it would just amount to that is unlikely. 314 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:56,400 Speaker 1: It was, but that's the best case scenario they're trying 315 00:19:56,440 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 1: to cover. All. Yes, Number two was marginal all uh 316 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:06,320 Speaker 1: And that's a few detonations uh again in the northern hemisphere, 317 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,919 Speaker 1: and they said it would lower the temperature by a 318 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:14,080 Speaker 1: few degrees and there would be some crops in some 319 00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:17,960 Speaker 1: agriculture that suffered, and probably some famine, but it would 320 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 1: not uh. Oh black rain, of course, but who wants 321 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:27,119 Speaker 1: that did happen in Hiroshima? Uh? They drank it and 322 00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:29,560 Speaker 1: died from packing it to go. Yes, because it was 323 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:32,360 Speaker 1: radioactive rain. Yeah, but they drank it because they were 324 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 1: thirsty because they had no water. It's devastating you and 325 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:39,560 Speaker 1: everyone should have to go to the city of Hiroshima, Like, 326 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 1: it is amazing what they've done to to preserve what 327 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:48,880 Speaker 1: happened there as like a teaching lesson for everyone. Yeah, 328 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:51,880 Speaker 1: it's really moving. We should have one of those here. 329 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:55,760 Speaker 1: We should Instead people are like, yeah, Japan forced the 330 00:20:55,880 --> 00:21:00,360 Speaker 1: US to drop the bomb. It's fact, which is not correct, right. 331 00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:04,560 Speaker 1: Uh so black rain would happen in that marginal scenario. Man, 332 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,400 Speaker 1: this is a really political episode, isn't. I think anytime 333 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:10,440 Speaker 1: you tackle nuclear war it's going to be divisive because 334 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 1: some people think it's awesome nuke the Wales got a 335 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 1: nuke something. Things below the equator in that scenario in 336 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:22,399 Speaker 1: the southern hemisphere would be just fine. So here's something 337 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 1: that I found really interesting and wrong in this um 338 00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:30,159 Speaker 1: analysis of it. Sagan. I guess he was strictly talking 339 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 1: about atmospheric effects, but he mentions like famine and stuff 340 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,679 Speaker 1: like that. The thing is that would have a global 341 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:41,119 Speaker 1: effect for sure, Yeah, the rest of the world. It 342 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 1: depends in large part on North American wheat and corn. 343 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:48,000 Speaker 1: So if there's a nuclear fallout in North America that 344 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 1: affects our crop yields dramatically and causes famin in the US, 345 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,120 Speaker 1: it's gonna cause famine elsewhere to I think what he's 346 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 1: saying is as far as climatologically speaking, what he in 347 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,439 Speaker 1: Turco or saying is, as long as you're not shooting 348 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:07,600 Speaker 1: off nuclear bombs in the southern hemisphere, it's gonna climatologically speaking, 349 00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 1: be unaffected or largely inaffective because the wind goes down 350 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 1: to the equator and then back up like the equator 351 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:18,680 Speaker 1: separates the hemispheres. As far as the atmosphere is concerned, Yeah, totally, 352 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:22,960 Speaker 1: there would still be global troubles, yes, Uh, but in 353 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 1: reading all these scenarios that made me really want to 354 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:28,240 Speaker 1: move to Australia. Well that's another thing too. How many 355 00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 1: people would be like, I need to get out of 356 00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:32,399 Speaker 1: the United States, so I'm moving down to Mexico, I'm 357 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,639 Speaker 1: moving down to Brazil, or I'm moving down to Australia, 358 00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:38,000 Speaker 1: and then the infrastructure in those countries are just super 359 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:42,480 Speaker 1: stressed because of the northern hemisphere that survived, and suddenly 360 00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:46,000 Speaker 1: moving down to the southern hemisphere with another widespread effect 361 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,920 Speaker 1: Mexico would help you too much? Though, Well, what weren't 362 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 1: they like super helpful in uh Independence Day? Was the 363 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:56,160 Speaker 1: Independence day or the morning or No, the day after tomorrow, 364 00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 1: everybody starts having to move south because North America is 365 00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:02,360 Speaker 1: just frozen n ice sheet. Yeah, but I just mean 366 00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:05,040 Speaker 1: as far as you'd have to go pretty far south, 367 00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 1: further south in Mexico if you want to escape the 368 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 1: atmospheric fallout. Oh, you're right, so Ecuador. Yeah, Like what 369 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,560 Speaker 1: is it like half of Africa and South America and 370 00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:20,960 Speaker 1: the hemisphere half. Yeah, so the northern hemisphere would show 371 00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 1: up at the southern Hemisphere's doorstep and be like Christmas 372 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,960 Speaker 1: in July. We'll get used to it. That's right. Your 373 00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:30,640 Speaker 1: drain goes the other way when you release the water 374 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 1: from the tub needo, and I know Christmas doesn't fall 375 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:39,920 Speaker 1: in July. It was a metaphorical statement everyone. Nominal nuclear 376 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:43,480 Speaker 1: winners number three, uh, that is what they consider the 377 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:48,119 Speaker 1: low end full scale nuclear war, but still full scale 378 00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:52,480 Speaker 1: six thousand to twelve thousand nuclear weapons. That's all just 379 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:57,399 Speaker 1: six to twelve thousand nuclear bombs, and we're talking um 380 00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:01,280 Speaker 1: a megaton or more bombs and a good time was 381 00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 1: um I think fifty Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs combined, So 382 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:11,760 Speaker 1: twelve thousand times fifty of those for this kind of 383 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:16,600 Speaker 1: nominal nuclear war. That's a lot of zeros. Uh. They 384 00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 1: predicted noon sunlight would be about a third of what 385 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:25,200 Speaker 1: it was. Global temperature drops of eighteen degrees. That's bad news, 386 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 1: my friend. Um, it would destroy a lot of the 387 00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:33,520 Speaker 1: ozone layer. Uh. And again the Southern hemisphere wouldn't experience 388 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:37,920 Speaker 1: major climactic change. Just cut to the Southern hemisphere. They're 389 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,600 Speaker 1: all at the beach. There's like topical music playing, but 390 00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:43,600 Speaker 1: they have no wheat, right, who needs wheat? When you 391 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:48,720 Speaker 1: got wrong drinks? Dude, that's a tea shirt. Josh Clark 392 00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:53,200 Speaker 1: said that one uh number four substantial, that is full 393 00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:58,520 Speaker 1: scale nuclear war, UM, freezing temperatures, big time fallout. The 394 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:02,800 Speaker 1: whole day would be like it's we cast um. Billions 395 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:09,280 Speaker 1: of humans dead, billions, billions and billions species going extinct um. 396 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:17,800 Speaker 1: And finally possible damage to the Southern hemisphere finally possibly uh. 397 00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,639 Speaker 1: And then the last two we can just bunch together. 398 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:24,280 Speaker 1: I think severe and extreme um less than one percent 399 00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:30,360 Speaker 1: of the sunlight getting through for months and months on end, 400 00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:37,800 Speaker 1: global temperature dropping, no photosynthesis happening, every crop dying, all 401 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,680 Speaker 1: life perishing. Let's just go ahead and wrap it up 402 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:45,000 Speaker 1: right there. As Robert puts it um, most of the 403 00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,040 Speaker 1: planet's life would perish within the chili comfines of this 404 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:51,560 Speaker 1: black atmospheric tomb. Yeah, he's got a little love craft 405 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:56,520 Speaker 1: in him. Done this unnamable tomb. Um, chuckers. Let's take 406 00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:58,880 Speaker 1: another break and then we will come back and talk 407 00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:24,240 Speaker 1: about um the fallout from nuclear winner theory. So Um, 408 00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:27,520 Speaker 1: like we said, Carl Sagan and his friends got together 409 00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:34,440 Speaker 1: and basically took it upon themselves to educate the public 410 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:38,800 Speaker 1: about the potential catastrophe that could happen as a result 411 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,920 Speaker 1: of nuclear war. Everybody before was like, Yeah, that would 412 00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:45,919 Speaker 1: really suck to be in a city that a nuclear 413 00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:50,119 Speaker 1: bomb went off on, but maybe it wouldn't be my city. 414 00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:54,240 Speaker 1: I live in Schenectady, New York's going to bomb connected, 415 00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:58,359 Speaker 1: so I'm probably gonna be Okay. These guys said, Hey, 416 00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,320 Speaker 1: Western civilism nation, not just in the US but also 417 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:06,400 Speaker 1: the USSR. That's not necessarily the case. You two will 418 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,880 Speaker 1: be affected. There's gonna be big problems after this after 419 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,760 Speaker 1: a nuclear war. So much so that let's make sure 420 00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:15,640 Speaker 1: that our leaders never do this right. Wake up basically 421 00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:18,480 Speaker 1: is what they were doing. And so Um Sagan and 422 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:20,760 Speaker 1: his friends created a paper and it's now called the 423 00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:26,840 Speaker 1: t Taps paper after all of their names, right Ackerman, Okay. 424 00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:31,040 Speaker 1: And they wrote this paper and had it published in Science, 425 00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:35,040 Speaker 1: the pre eminent scientific journal in the United States. It 426 00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:38,840 Speaker 1: was a big deal that they also held a very 427 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:44,119 Speaker 1: well publicized conference, and Carl Sagan, apparently without the the 428 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,720 Speaker 1: group's knowledge or blessing, went off and also wrote a 429 00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:52,560 Speaker 1: piece of Parade magazine, Yeah, to make sure that every 430 00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:55,600 Speaker 1: dick and Jane in the US knew about this. It 431 00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:59,040 Speaker 1: was like a three page article about the nuclear winner, 432 00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,480 Speaker 1: which is a new term at the time, complete with 433 00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:05,080 Speaker 1: illustrations where like the earth was like the dead, lifeless, 434 00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:09,960 Speaker 1: what's called like a gray chalk billiard ball basically, um, 435 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,920 Speaker 1: just really scary stuff. And then he also simultaneously wrote 436 00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:17,800 Speaker 1: another longer piece that was in Foreign Affairs. Um, that's 437 00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:21,080 Speaker 1: a little more wonky. So Sagan went off after writing 438 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:26,560 Speaker 1: this this scientific paper and publicized it to policymakers and 439 00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,840 Speaker 1: to the American public. This is the early and yes, 440 00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:34,119 Speaker 1: and you this was before all the sciences and this 441 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:37,480 Speaker 1: is from the first paper, before the first papers conference 442 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:41,040 Speaker 1: was even held, right, And a lot of people, including 443 00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:44,240 Speaker 1: people who were on his side about this issue, were 444 00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:47,600 Speaker 1: really mad at him because it opened up the this 445 00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:51,160 Speaker 1: group and the whole idea of nuclear winner to allegations 446 00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:53,880 Speaker 1: that they were fearmongering and that they were basically trying 447 00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:56,360 Speaker 1: to sell the public on science, which is, you know, 448 00:28:56,480 --> 00:29:01,040 Speaker 1: that's not what science does. Yes, pure science is about 449 00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 1: research and coming up with facts, and whether they're popular 450 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 1: or unpopular, it doesn't matter. Sciences science and fact is fact, right. 451 00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:11,520 Speaker 1: A good theory is a good theory. But these guys 452 00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:15,960 Speaker 1: again were concerned that something really, really bad could happen, 453 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:18,600 Speaker 1: and they went to the trouble of taking it upon 454 00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 1: themselves to advertise it to the public. But again second 455 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:23,880 Speaker 1: going off and do this, it really opened them up 456 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:27,440 Speaker 1: for a lot of allegations and debate that took place afterwards. 457 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:31,280 Speaker 1: But some say that the uh, their work and the 458 00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:34,600 Speaker 1: te Taps report actually did help cool things down, uh 459 00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:36,800 Speaker 1: in the Cold War a little bit. Yeah, And I 460 00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,480 Speaker 1: mean it wasn't just these American scientists. They worked with 461 00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:43,440 Speaker 1: Soviet scienceists as well, and apparently, um, sometimes it went good, 462 00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:46,320 Speaker 1: sometimes it didn't go so well, But they're both sides 463 00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:49,480 Speaker 1: were working on this issue, and the fact that it 464 00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:53,120 Speaker 1: got so much publicity actually created a firestorm of back 465 00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:56,960 Speaker 1: and forth in the scientific community, and this issue ended 466 00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:00,560 Speaker 1: up getting really well studied. Yeah, it it and uh. 467 00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:05,640 Speaker 1: Seven years later they revised the report and uh it 468 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:09,640 Speaker 1: had new, more modernized data and it um wasn't quite 469 00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,520 Speaker 1: as dire, which some critics are like, all right, that 470 00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,040 Speaker 1: this is a little more reasonable. Yes, they revised it 471 00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:21,400 Speaker 1: to call it the nuclear Autumn. Yeah, and everyone loves autumn. Yeah, 472 00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:24,760 Speaker 1: autumn all the time. They'd be wonderful. Oh man, that 473 00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:30,040 Speaker 1: would be wonderful Chuck's world. Uh, and they there are 474 00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:33,320 Speaker 1: disagreements over that still, and they basically there's um a 475 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:38,000 Speaker 1: few four variables that are always the factors that are 476 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:41,480 Speaker 1: the unknowns, and it's really they're all to me kind 477 00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,640 Speaker 1: of one four versions of the same variable, which is, 478 00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,600 Speaker 1: we don't know how much smoke there would be, Yes, 479 00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,600 Speaker 1: we just don't know, uh. And number one is how 480 00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:53,720 Speaker 1: much material is there to burn? So the idea is 481 00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:57,480 Speaker 1: you drop a bomb on a city, a nuclear bomb, 482 00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:03,560 Speaker 1: and everything catches on fire, and that creates tremendous amounts 483 00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:07,120 Speaker 1: of smoke. But since these are all theoretical and you 484 00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:08,960 Speaker 1: don't know what would happen if you drop something the 485 00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,720 Speaker 1: size on like let's say a major city like New York. 486 00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:13,960 Speaker 1: They like, what would be there to burn? Like, we 487 00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:16,280 Speaker 1: just don't know. Well, that's that's yeah. So if you 488 00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:18,720 Speaker 1: dropped it on a city, is it an old city 489 00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,720 Speaker 1: that's that isn't supermodern and therefore isn't built out of 490 00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:25,560 Speaker 1: like lots of plastic that can get into the atmosphere 491 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,440 Speaker 1: and really mess things up. Yeah, like the really bad stuff. Yeah, 492 00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:31,000 Speaker 1: if it's an old city, maybe the burning wouldn't be 493 00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:35,320 Speaker 1: so bad even after a nuclear holocaust. Um. Or maybe 494 00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:38,840 Speaker 1: you're not shooting nuclear bombs to cities but to other 495 00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,080 Speaker 1: nuclear installations that are out in the middle of like 496 00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:44,920 Speaker 1: nowhere in Nebraska. Um, because we have I mean we've 497 00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:49,280 Speaker 1: there's been like two thousand nuclear bombs detonated, but they 498 00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:53,000 Speaker 1: only two on the city's exactly. Everything else has been 499 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:54,360 Speaker 1: out of the ocean or out in the middle of 500 00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:57,640 Speaker 1: nowhere and there's been no fire. Right. Um. The assumption 501 00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:01,120 Speaker 1: is is that though if you shot a nuclear bomb 502 00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,640 Speaker 1: at an at a modern city, a lot of really 503 00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:08,640 Speaker 1: toxic smoke would be produced. That's probably the worst case scenario, 504 00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:13,960 Speaker 1: and both the immediate nuclear holocaust and the fallout the 505 00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:16,280 Speaker 1: nuclear winner as a result. Because of all the smoke 506 00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:18,440 Speaker 1: that would be created. I mean, look at the fallout 507 00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:22,680 Speaker 1: from nine eleven and that was two buildings. Uh. The 508 00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:26,000 Speaker 1: second variable is how much would remain in the atmosphere 509 00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:29,240 Speaker 1: and then how much goes back to the earth. Yeah, 510 00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:31,600 Speaker 1: no one really knows that at all. How much sunlight 511 00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:35,960 Speaker 1: would be deflected? Again, just theorizing, and you can go 512 00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:39,640 Speaker 1: back and plug in these numbers. The problem is, if 513 00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,760 Speaker 1: you're a detractor of nuclear winner theory, you would say, 514 00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,160 Speaker 1: where'd you get that number? You know? And you could 515 00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:49,920 Speaker 1: take every number and come up with a different model 516 00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:53,320 Speaker 1: for each one. They usually don't do that, but even still, 517 00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,880 Speaker 1: it's like which one is going to be the one? 518 00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:58,400 Speaker 1: And again it goes back to how much smoke would 519 00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:03,719 Speaker 1: there be to begin? And then finally when did it happen? Um, 520 00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:08,800 Speaker 1: if it was actually in winter, perhaps it's not so bad. Yeah, 521 00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:12,600 Speaker 1: nuclear winter and winter ironically is the best case scenario, 522 00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:16,280 Speaker 1: the best case scenario of the bad scenarios. So they 523 00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,480 Speaker 1: did initially back off of their findings. They said that 524 00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:22,440 Speaker 1: it was there could initially be like a thirty five 525 00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:27,840 Speaker 1: to forty degree drop in global temperatures. Um, it's celsius, 526 00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:31,720 Speaker 1: So we're talking like seventy degrees seventy two degrees fahrenheight 527 00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:37,320 Speaker 1: drop in temperature. So that's a full on nuclear war, yes. Um. 528 00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,479 Speaker 1: Later on, as they revised their findings and more again, more, 529 00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,120 Speaker 1: more and more scientists got involved and studied this issue. 530 00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:46,800 Speaker 1: They came upon what seemed to be a consensus that 531 00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,959 Speaker 1: you could probably count on something like a fifteen degree 532 00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:56,000 Speaker 1: celsius drop in um global temperatures, which would be substantial 533 00:33:56,080 --> 00:34:01,320 Speaker 1: and could still have widespread effects. Right, So this from 534 00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:04,479 Speaker 1: this debate, nuclear winner kind of got settled on. There 535 00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:07,440 Speaker 1: was a scientific consensus that came about, and there was 536 00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:11,440 Speaker 1: also consensus that not only would UM there'll be huge 537 00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:15,799 Speaker 1: problems inland, there would be ocean oceanic problems as well 538 00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:19,200 Speaker 1: because one of the things one of the great casualties 539 00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:22,840 Speaker 1: of detonating nuclear bombs is the ozone layer. UM. The 540 00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:28,560 Speaker 1: fireball from the blast burns up nitrogen converting into nitrogen oxide. 541 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:33,720 Speaker 1: Nitrogen oxide just punches holes, basically chemically burns the ozone layer. 542 00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:37,080 Speaker 1: So then when all that smoke that's acting as like 543 00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:40,759 Speaker 1: an umbrella that's blocking out the sunlight falls back to Earth, 544 00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,880 Speaker 1: all that particular matter falls back to Earth and is radioactive. 545 00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:47,000 Speaker 1: By the way, now the sunlight that does come through 546 00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:51,239 Speaker 1: is way hotter and has way more UV light than 547 00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:54,160 Speaker 1: it had before the nuclear bombs went off. We had 548 00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:57,759 Speaker 1: our little delicate balance that's disrupted exactly. The problem with 549 00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,399 Speaker 1: that for the oceans is that that you V light 550 00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:06,640 Speaker 1: would likely be too intense for phytoplankton at the ocean surface. Well, 551 00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:10,800 Speaker 1: that is the keystone species for the ocean aquatic environments. 552 00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:16,120 Speaker 1: The ecosystems all start with phytoplankton. Zooplankton feed on phytoplankton, 553 00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:19,759 Speaker 1: Little fish feed on zooplankton, Larger fish feed on little fish, 554 00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:22,440 Speaker 1: and so on and so on until if so, if 555 00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:25,440 Speaker 1: you get rid of the phytoplankton, you're in big trouble. 556 00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:29,040 Speaker 1: So there would be huge ramifications, and science came to 557 00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:33,080 Speaker 1: a consensus on this, but again it was attacked very 558 00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:39,560 Speaker 1: early on by nuclear proliferation hawks as basically being against 559 00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:44,200 Speaker 1: the interests of United States national security, and then later 560 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,960 Speaker 1: on it continued to be attacked. It became a customary 561 00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:52,960 Speaker 1: traditional flash point among conservatives as a great example of 562 00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:58,279 Speaker 1: the links that hippie h environmental scientists will go to 563 00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:02,840 Speaker 1: to to dupe the American public into being scared about 564 00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:06,920 Speaker 1: nuclear bombs and and just nuclear stuff in general. Like 565 00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:10,520 Speaker 1: Michael Crichton famously attacked it in a two three speech 566 00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:14,880 Speaker 1: and he his whole thing. He he was very famously 567 00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:18,520 Speaker 1: a climate denier. He was a climate skeptic until his 568 00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:23,040 Speaker 1: death as far as I know. Um, yeah, and and 569 00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:26,160 Speaker 1: he wrote some great books. But it's also like contrarian 570 00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:27,920 Speaker 1: by nature is what he said as well. But I 571 00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,800 Speaker 1: get the impression that he tended to land on the 572 00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:35,279 Speaker 1: more conservative, anti environmental side. And on this case, he 573 00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:39,560 Speaker 1: also attacked the Nuclear Winner as well. And what he 574 00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:44,759 Speaker 1: accused these guys of doing is is creating science by consensus, right, 575 00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:49,200 Speaker 1: That to me is that's just like a one two 576 00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:53,040 Speaker 1: sucker punch. So the initial scientists that that challenged, um 577 00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:58,600 Speaker 1: Nuclear Winner said, you guys can't even agree. There's no consensus, 578 00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:01,640 Speaker 1: like you can't be certain and what you're saying, so 579 00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:05,160 Speaker 1: therefore we don't need to take you seriously. So they said, okay, 580 00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:07,400 Speaker 1: you know what, We're gonna get all these scientists around 581 00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:09,959 Speaker 1: the world together to study this issue and we're gonna 582 00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,799 Speaker 1: come to a consensus. And when they did years later, 583 00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:16,120 Speaker 1: guys like Michael Crichton said, you guys are practicing science 584 00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:19,480 Speaker 1: by consensus and politicizing science. It's not real science. So 585 00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:21,880 Speaker 1: it's like they were very much damned if they did 586 00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:24,880 Speaker 1: and damned if they didn't, and ultimately you just have 587 00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:28,520 Speaker 1: to kind of decide is it worth the risk. Maybe 588 00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:31,560 Speaker 1: we can't say for certain, and at the time you 589 00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:34,120 Speaker 1: couldn't say for certain. What's cool is that some of 590 00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:37,600 Speaker 1: these same climate scientists are still at work and they 591 00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:42,160 Speaker 1: have come up with fairly recent models, using very sophisticated 592 00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:46,040 Speaker 1: climate models. Compared to the stuff they were using back 593 00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:48,359 Speaker 1: in the eighties and even the nineties, The stuff they're 594 00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:52,040 Speaker 1: using now says, actually, we think nuclear winner might be 595 00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:55,680 Speaker 1: worse than was initially predicted. Yeah, and even if it's 596 00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:58,400 Speaker 1: not a full scale nuclear war, I think the worry 597 00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:02,440 Speaker 1: there's not as much work these days for something like that. Uh, 598 00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:06,040 Speaker 1: what the worry is now is that some rogue nation 599 00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:09,359 Speaker 1: gets ahold of one or maybe even not a rogue nation, 600 00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:13,920 Speaker 1: just Indian Pakistan drop a couple of nuclear bombs. Well, 601 00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:17,440 Speaker 1: that's the model, and like that is entirely possible. I 602 00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:20,400 Speaker 1: think of one megaton detonation is what they did this 603 00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:23,480 Speaker 1: model on, and it was it had a substantial effect. Yeah, 604 00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:25,839 Speaker 1: they said ten years of smoke clouds in a three 605 00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:29,120 Speaker 1: year temperature drop of about two point to five degrees fahrenheit, 606 00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:31,359 Speaker 1: which doesn't sound like much. But if you go back 607 00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:35,480 Speaker 1: and you read that scientists study. His executive summary of 608 00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:39,080 Speaker 1: the study, he points out that that kind of drop 609 00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:43,120 Speaker 1: ultimately equals a shortened growing season by ten to twenty days, 610 00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,760 Speaker 1: and that last ten to twenty days makes or breaks 611 00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:49,080 Speaker 1: a crop Like that means you can either harvest it 612 00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:52,040 Speaker 1: or it dies before it matures and can be harvested. 613 00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:55,000 Speaker 1: And so even just a couple of degrees can lead 614 00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:58,640 Speaker 1: to widespread crop failure. Yeah, but this is just if 615 00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:03,120 Speaker 1: Indian Pakist then shoot fifty bombs at one another in 616 00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:07,319 Speaker 1: a regional war, it could have that effect around the world. Uh. 617 00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:11,080 Speaker 1: So we mentioned Hiroshima, Nagasaki. Um, those are the only 618 00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:13,759 Speaker 1: places we can look, But like we pointed out, the 619 00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:17,480 Speaker 1: bombs were so different back then, it's not the best comparison. 620 00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:20,360 Speaker 1: But as far as looking at what kind of fires 621 00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:24,360 Speaker 1: could happen, you can't tell a whole lot. Um In 622 00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:27,880 Speaker 1: Hiroshima there were more fires than in Nagasaki, just because 623 00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:31,000 Speaker 1: of the way the geography is in the two cities. 624 00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:35,719 Speaker 1: But um, in neither case did they see a ton 625 00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:40,399 Speaker 1: of uh secondary fires Like it wasn't blacking out the sky. 626 00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:43,840 Speaker 1: There was, there was black rain, but um apparently you know, 627 00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:47,359 Speaker 1: like a week later, uh, most of that stuff had 628 00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:52,640 Speaker 1: had cleared up. But again that is you can't even 629 00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:55,719 Speaker 1: really compare the two. Now it's a single kill a 630 00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:59,800 Speaker 1: ton bomb, yeah exactly, we're talking a fifty of the 631 00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:03,440 Speaker 1: going off in the same area. But that report that 632 00:40:03,520 --> 00:40:08,239 Speaker 1: you mentioned on just like if Indian Pakistan, Um, well 633 00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:12,440 Speaker 1: how much was it tin megatons? No, it was one megaton, 634 00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:17,319 Speaker 1: so fifty of the Hiroshima and um Nagasaki mombs, Well 635 00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:22,120 Speaker 1: it was enough to cause the Atomic Scientists Science and 636 00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:25,440 Speaker 1: Security Board to move the doomsday clock two minutes closer 637 00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:30,840 Speaker 1: to midnight. Uh. And the doomsday clock is uh. Some 638 00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:34,600 Speaker 1: people say it's good science, some people say they're fearmongering. 639 00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:37,880 Speaker 1: But what it is is it is uh. It's a 640 00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:41,279 Speaker 1: design that basically says, here's how close we are to 641 00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:47,040 Speaker 1: destroying ourselves as a civilization. And um, there are a 642 00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:49,960 Speaker 1: lot of factors that go into it, like biotechnology or 643 00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:55,320 Speaker 1: cyber technology, but the main two are obviously nuclear weapons 644 00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:57,880 Speaker 1: and climate change are the two main things that factor 645 00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:03,040 Speaker 1: into where the doomsday clock sits. And uh, I think 646 00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:07,640 Speaker 1: in the nineteen fifties they've only changed it. How many 647 00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:11,600 Speaker 1: times eighteen times since it was created nineteen forty seven 648 00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:14,719 Speaker 1: have they changed the hands on the clock? Uh? In 649 00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:17,600 Speaker 1: the nineteen fifties, it was at two minutes till midnight. 650 00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:22,560 Speaker 1: In the early nineteen fifties. Um, the best I think 651 00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:27,600 Speaker 1: it's been in the early nineties was seventeen minutes till midnight. Yeah, 652 00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:30,120 Speaker 1: then they feel good. That's a lot of time. What 653 00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:32,120 Speaker 1: do we are right now? Right now, we are the 654 00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:35,520 Speaker 1: closest we've been since nineteen eighty three. Uh. And on 655 00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:39,560 Speaker 1: January twenty two of this year, it was changed to UM, 656 00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:43,960 Speaker 1: three minutes till midnight is where they sit. And they 657 00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:46,239 Speaker 1: have a big had a big press release. I'll just 658 00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:50,000 Speaker 1: read the opening and closing paragraphs. The opening paragraph in 659 00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:55,800 Speaker 1: Unchecked climate Change, Global nuclear weapon modernizations and outsize nuclear 660 00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:59,840 Speaker 1: weapons arsenals pose extraordinary and undeniable threats to the continued 661 00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:02,759 Speaker 1: to existence of humanity, and world leaders have failed to 662 00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:05,400 Speaker 1: act with the speed or on the scale required to 663 00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:09,240 Speaker 1: protect citizens from potential catastrophe. These failures of political leadership 664 00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:12,640 Speaker 1: and endanger every person on Earth. And then the final paragraph, 665 00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:14,920 Speaker 1: and there's lots of fun stuff in between, just like 666 00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:19,840 Speaker 1: fart jokes and stuff, and then they close with with 667 00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:22,000 Speaker 1: the clock hand move forward to three minutes to midnight. 668 00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:24,279 Speaker 1: The board feels compelled to add with a sense of 669 00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:28,480 Speaker 1: great urgency, the probability of global catastrophe is very high, 670 00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:31,160 Speaker 1: and the actions needed to reduce the risk of disaster 671 00:42:31,520 --> 00:42:37,279 Speaker 1: must be taken very soon. They'll mess around, uh And 672 00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:41,200 Speaker 1: even though that we've um we had been doing a 673 00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:44,120 Speaker 1: good job of reducing the amount of warheads between the 674 00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:46,880 Speaker 1: United States and Russia, but things have slowed to a 675 00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:50,800 Speaker 1: snails pace now. From two thousand nine to two thousand thirteen, 676 00:42:51,480 --> 00:42:55,840 Speaker 1: Obama cut only three nine warheads from the stockpile. And 677 00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:59,719 Speaker 1: they're basically saying, we're not doing this as fast as 678 00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:03,879 Speaker 1: we need you too, like we need to act now. Yeah. Well, 679 00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:06,040 Speaker 1: there's other people who are saying we need to rebuild 680 00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:08,719 Speaker 1: their nuclear arsenal because it's aging and rotting and will 681 00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:12,400 Speaker 1: be useless. By how are we going to drop nuclear 682 00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:15,960 Speaker 1: bombs on people in the future. It's it's weird, like 683 00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:19,319 Speaker 1: some people are trying to reignite the Cold War. Well, 684 00:43:21,560 --> 00:43:23,960 Speaker 1: I don't agree with it, but I know that most 685 00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:26,720 Speaker 1: of those people aren't saying, hey, so we can bomb people, 686 00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:30,200 Speaker 1: it's so we can keep each other in check, which 687 00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:32,759 Speaker 1: was the Cold War. We could also over again get 688 00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:35,960 Speaker 1: rid of nuclear bombs entirely. We could do that. Um. 689 00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:39,160 Speaker 1: And you know, Sagan's the whole thing I should say. 690 00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:41,200 Speaker 1: And it's funny that he's kind of like the villain 691 00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:43,799 Speaker 1: of this whole thing, of the whole nuclear winner debate, 692 00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:46,560 Speaker 1: because he's such a revered figure, such a great guy. 693 00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:51,040 Speaker 1: But he really, I purposefully made some serious missteps as 694 00:43:51,080 --> 00:43:53,800 Speaker 1: far as publicizing the results went before they were fully in. 695 00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:56,400 Speaker 1: But his whole thing was and if you read his 696 00:43:56,480 --> 00:44:00,759 Speaker 1: foreign policy thing, his article, it's really really good. Um, 697 00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:05,239 Speaker 1: it's not too of two so like it's kind of 698 00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:07,920 Speaker 1: fun to read. But it's called nuclear war and Climactic 699 00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:12,840 Speaker 1: Catastrophe colon some policy implications and he says like, we 700 00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:15,640 Speaker 1: don't know, you know, what the what the right answer is. 701 00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:19,680 Speaker 1: We don't know if it's entirely possible that nuclear winner. 702 00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:23,880 Speaker 1: Maybe our ideas are overblown or whatever. But he says, 703 00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:30,200 Speaker 1: I'm not willing to take the chance. Why should we 704 00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:34,120 Speaker 1: take the chances? It's like why risk it? Right? So 705 00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:37,560 Speaker 1: his solution is, how about this US and USS are, 706 00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:42,160 Speaker 1: how about you de escalate the arms race, de proliferate 707 00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:46,880 Speaker 1: until you get down to a threshold that science hasts said. Okay, 708 00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:52,840 Speaker 1: nuclear winner probably couldn't happen beyond this payload. Right, So 709 00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:56,560 Speaker 1: even if all the nuclear bombs in the world at 710 00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:58,759 Speaker 1: this lower number, we're set off, we still wouldn't go 711 00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:03,200 Speaker 1: into nuclear winter. Right. But you guys can take out 712 00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:05,480 Speaker 1: all of your major city centers and still fight your 713 00:45:05,560 --> 00:45:08,600 Speaker 1: nuclear war, but the rest of the world won't won't 714 00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:11,520 Speaker 1: be destroyed by it. Yeah, that was his solution, and 715 00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:14,520 Speaker 1: no one took him up on it. I've never understood. 716 00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:16,960 Speaker 1: I don't know, man, we'll we'll do one on climate 717 00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:19,560 Speaker 1: change at some point too. But I've never understood why 718 00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:23,440 Speaker 1: people and I get the economics play factor, but why 719 00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:28,440 Speaker 1: risking the future of mankind for your ancestors to follow 720 00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:31,440 Speaker 1: is worth it. A lot of it is fear, like 721 00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:35,520 Speaker 1: a lot of these people who have over the last decades, 722 00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:38,279 Speaker 1: you know, push for that kind of thing, like fear 723 00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:40,480 Speaker 1: that you know, the US will be caught with his 724 00:45:40,600 --> 00:45:44,640 Speaker 1: pants down, like genuinely feared the Soviet Union, and like 725 00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:47,319 Speaker 1: their heart was in it like that. But I mean, 726 00:45:47,400 --> 00:45:50,840 Speaker 1: if it's fascinating to me this whole like basically secret 727 00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:54,320 Speaker 1: publicity war that's been going that what went on throughout 728 00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:57,120 Speaker 1: the twentie and it's well into the twenty one centuries. 729 00:45:57,840 --> 00:45:59,640 Speaker 1: There's a book again, I think I mentioned it called 730 00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:03,440 Speaker 1: merch and some doubt everybody should read. Yeah, and you 731 00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:05,520 Speaker 1: know what, save your emails to me because you can 732 00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:07,600 Speaker 1: still think what you want to think. Yeah, I just 733 00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:11,000 Speaker 1: I just personally don't get it. I'm not gonna throw 734 00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:13,840 Speaker 1: stones at you and say you're wrong. I probably should, 735 00:46:15,080 --> 00:46:17,360 Speaker 1: but that won't because it's not nice to throw stones. 736 00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:21,840 Speaker 1: It isn't Chuck. Are you good? I'm great. If you 737 00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:24,200 Speaker 1: want to know more about Nuclear Winner, you can read 738 00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:27,360 Speaker 1: this fine article written by Robert Lamb by typing Nuclear 739 00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:29,480 Speaker 1: Winner in the search part how stuff works dot com. 740 00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:33,000 Speaker 1: Since I said search parts, time for listener mail. Oh no, 741 00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:48,040 Speaker 1: my friend, it's time for d all right. This is 742 00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:51,439 Speaker 1: the time that we all know one love. When Josh 743 00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:54,879 Speaker 1: and I read out and say thanks, we give thanks. 744 00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:59,200 Speaker 1: We should call this Thanksgiving and not administrative details. Okay, ready, no, no, 745 00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:02,680 Speaker 1: that's okay, uh, because administrative details is such a weird name. 746 00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:05,560 Speaker 1: This is long. It's meant to be. Uh So, this 747 00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:07,480 Speaker 1: is when we thank people for the for the very 748 00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:10,760 Speaker 1: kind gifts that they have sent us over the months. 749 00:47:10,880 --> 00:47:13,600 Speaker 1: And dude, I think this goes back all the way 750 00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:16,200 Speaker 1: to January for me. Oh man, I've got one for 751 00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:19,760 Speaker 1: Christmas cookies. The Mona collent Tine and Grandma colling Tine. 752 00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:21,800 Speaker 1: I think we always say her name wrong. By the way, No, 753 00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:24,600 Speaker 1: I think she corrected us in staid it was like Valentine. 754 00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:27,399 Speaker 1: So I think I'm saying it right. Man, It's gonna 755 00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:32,800 Speaker 1: be so mad at all. Right, is the administrative detailed 756 00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:35,800 Speaker 1: music playing? It sounds like it great, can't you hear that? 757 00:47:35,920 --> 00:47:39,560 Speaker 1: I'll get it started with. Richard sent us a guide 758 00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:42,719 Speaker 1: to the round things of the Solar System. Very fun, 759 00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:46,120 Speaker 1: very nice. I remember that. Yeah, Blair sent us a 760 00:47:46,200 --> 00:47:49,480 Speaker 1: plug in key holder. You come home, plug your key 761 00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:52,720 Speaker 1: chain in and you never forget it. It's pretty awesome. Actually, 762 00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:56,120 Speaker 1: you can get them on Amazon Electric socket unplugged chain holder. 763 00:47:56,360 --> 00:47:58,160 Speaker 1: Search for that. It will bring it up. That's right. 764 00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:00,879 Speaker 1: I got a postcard, very nice post carred from Jean 765 00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:06,200 Speaker 1: Pierre Bonasco and Stephanie Crick from Port Lockroy, Antarctica. Nice 766 00:48:06,480 --> 00:48:09,320 Speaker 1: and it's worth saying again thank you to Mona Colling 767 00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:12,399 Speaker 1: Tine and Grandma calling time for Christmas cookies. We look 768 00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:14,719 Speaker 1: forward to them again this year, yes, we certainly do. 769 00:48:16,040 --> 00:48:19,400 Speaker 1: Oh we've gotten Newgat, homemade Newgat from christin Ferguson. Okay, 770 00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:23,400 Speaker 1: it's so delicious. I am hooked on that stuff. It's great. 771 00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:27,200 Speaker 1: It is she you can find her at Solace Sweets. Man, 772 00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:29,680 Speaker 1: it is so good. Yeah. Kristen has been sending us 773 00:48:29,719 --> 00:48:31,560 Speaker 1: this homemade Newgat for years and I was always like, 774 00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:33,440 Speaker 1: I mean, nugat, I don't know about that, and then 775 00:48:33,480 --> 00:48:36,160 Speaker 1: I put up my mouth. It's amazing stuff. It's really 776 00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:39,840 Speaker 1: good enough. Uh. And then we also got some sweets 777 00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:43,080 Speaker 1: from Dude Sweet Chocolate out of Texas. I think they 778 00:48:43,160 --> 00:48:46,080 Speaker 1: might be out of Dallas. They made like they sent 779 00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:49,040 Speaker 1: us really great chocolate. But they also make these incredible 780 00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:52,760 Speaker 1: marshmallows too. They made a sweet potato marshmallow, and dudes 781 00:48:52,800 --> 00:48:55,640 Speaker 1: at Dude Sweet Chocolate, thank you for those. They were amazing. 782 00:48:56,120 --> 00:48:58,880 Speaker 1: Yumi was crazy for those marshmelloss like I am for 783 00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:02,160 Speaker 1: the Newgat. That was the bounty. I remember that as 784 00:49:02,200 --> 00:49:05,239 Speaker 1: always every Christmas. Our buddy Aaron Cooper in Kansas sends 785 00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:09,239 Speaker 1: us great pronounce of these great photoshops that he does 786 00:49:09,280 --> 00:49:11,319 Speaker 1: of us that he puts online and you can see 787 00:49:11,400 --> 00:49:13,480 Speaker 1: him on Internet round up. Yeah, we even got T 788 00:49:13,600 --> 00:49:18,000 Speaker 1: shirts this year of Shake Gavara, Josh and Chuck. So 789 00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:22,080 Speaker 1: Coop you're the best. Yeah, that is true, Coop Uh, 790 00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:24,840 Speaker 1: Mark Allen and the Trade Monkey team sent us some 791 00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:28,440 Speaker 1: beautiful jewelry made by female artisans in Southeast Asia and 792 00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:33,120 Speaker 1: traded fairly key are Buddy band Astrims in this book? 793 00:49:33,760 --> 00:49:36,440 Speaker 1: Which one? Which book? Well, he's always sending his stuff, 794 00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:39,920 Speaker 1: so honestly can't even remember which book, but we have 795 00:49:40,080 --> 00:49:42,239 Speaker 1: like boxes full of things that he sent. He sent 796 00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:45,200 Speaker 1: us a CD of The Shags Philosophy of the World, 797 00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:48,920 Speaker 1: you know, what's known as the worst album ever recorded. 798 00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:52,880 Speaker 1: Got it in my death here. The problem is my 799 00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:56,279 Speaker 1: computer doesn't have a CD drive any longer. Have you 800 00:49:56,360 --> 00:49:59,759 Speaker 1: noticed that's gone? Yeah, computers don't have those any longer. 801 00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:02,400 Speaker 1: Try to find it on my computer. I defy you. 802 00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:05,840 Speaker 1: I was like, what's that little slot and you're like, 803 00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:10,720 Speaker 1: that's where the tissues come out. It's a coffee cup holder. 804 00:50:11,280 --> 00:50:15,040 Speaker 1: Our buddies from Venice's Sinking Band sent us an LP 805 00:50:15,280 --> 00:50:17,200 Speaker 1: sand and lines and a c D. What we do 806 00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:22,320 Speaker 1: is secret and there are our friends from Athens, Georgia. Huge, 807 00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:25,719 Speaker 1: huge thanks to Hillary Lowsar, who has sent us a 808 00:50:25,840 --> 00:50:28,560 Speaker 1: lot of cheese over the last year, some of the 809 00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:32,359 Speaker 1: best cheese flathead like cheese in Montana, which like they 810 00:50:32,480 --> 00:50:36,160 Speaker 1: make a happy gooda that's to die for. It is 811 00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:39,080 Speaker 1: very good at flathead like cheese. And she sent us 812 00:50:39,120 --> 00:50:42,680 Speaker 1: some awesome T shirts that's a mouth feel on them. Yeah, 813 00:50:43,239 --> 00:50:46,320 Speaker 1: our bar episode. She's the best. She and her husband 814 00:50:46,360 --> 00:50:49,880 Speaker 1: Mike have been big time fans. They're very active on 815 00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:52,279 Speaker 1: our Facebook page and they like drove to Seattle for 816 00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:55,319 Speaker 1: our show for months from Montana. Yeah, she's a teacher. Yeah. 817 00:50:55,360 --> 00:50:58,160 Speaker 1: And they sent um you me and Emily earrings. So 818 00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:01,000 Speaker 1: thanks for that from all of us. Terry got nothing. 819 00:51:01,520 --> 00:51:06,239 Speaker 1: Uh Tommy Luke Rick, Uh, Tommy look Rich, Lucric lut Rich. 820 00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:09,920 Speaker 1: He said, it's a nice letter man. His last name 821 00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:12,200 Speaker 1: you say four times. Well, he's the guy. He's walking 822 00:51:12,239 --> 00:51:14,319 Speaker 1: from Seattle in New York City. And if you want 823 00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:17,160 Speaker 1: to follow this, I don't. He might be there by now. Uh. 824 00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:23,000 Speaker 1: Tommy Walks dot tumbler dot com. You can check that out. Okay, um, huge, 825 00:51:23,120 --> 00:51:26,239 Speaker 1: huge thanks from me personally to Loris No, who I 826 00:51:26,239 --> 00:51:27,920 Speaker 1: don't know if you remember when we did the Hot 827 00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:32,120 Speaker 1: Wheels episode, boy do I I said that the hot 828 00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:34,480 Speaker 1: Wheels I would love to have was this like uh 829 00:51:34,719 --> 00:51:37,680 Speaker 1: like station wagon camper. That's a good time camper on 830 00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:40,600 Speaker 1: I remember shemailed it to me. That's pretty remarkable. Yep, 831 00:51:40,680 --> 00:51:42,640 Speaker 1: So thank you very much, lauris No. That was very 832 00:51:42,680 --> 00:51:45,320 Speaker 1: nice of you. Yeah, if anyone's listening. Uh, my favorite 833 00:51:45,360 --> 00:51:47,520 Speaker 1: hot wheel was the one that had a thousand dollars 834 00:51:47,560 --> 00:51:52,680 Speaker 1: stuffed in the body of the car. Um Stephen, uh, 835 00:51:53,000 --> 00:51:57,239 Speaker 1: Stephen Brahm. He sent as some currency bank notes which 836 00:51:57,239 --> 00:51:59,640 Speaker 1: I've never collected money, but he sent a nineteen fifty 837 00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:03,719 Speaker 1: three dollar certificate in nineteen fifty seven series two dollar 838 00:52:03,800 --> 00:52:08,839 Speaker 1: bill in in eighteen seventy four fractional currency ten cent note. Yeah, 839 00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:10,600 Speaker 1: that was pretty neat. I think you got the ten 840 00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:14,840 Speaker 1: cent note, didn't you, because I spent it on candy. No, 841 00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:20,239 Speaker 1: what's this, it's incense, sir, It's a fraction of a note. Uh. 842 00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:24,359 Speaker 1: Meteor all Just Michael Herb, who also moons Moonlights as 843 00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:28,359 Speaker 1: a young adult murder mystery author, sent us a book 844 00:52:28,440 --> 00:52:31,480 Speaker 1: of one of his murder mysteries, Kevin McLeod in The 845 00:52:31,600 --> 00:52:36,279 Speaker 1: Seaside Storm. It's about a little weather detective. It's pretty cute. 846 00:52:36,800 --> 00:52:42,080 Speaker 1: Jeff Payton sent us a book Darwin's Black Box, and Uh, 847 00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:46,800 Speaker 1: Bethany at the Base Element d dot base dot element 848 00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:49,680 Speaker 1: at gmail dot com. If you want any of the 849 00:52:49,800 --> 00:52:52,560 Speaker 1: fleur to sell caramel, she sent us, we can highly 850 00:52:52,600 --> 00:52:56,160 Speaker 1: recommend them. And I got one more from both of us. 851 00:52:56,239 --> 00:53:00,440 Speaker 1: Chuck all right, Dan Kent name ring a bell? Uh 852 00:53:00,520 --> 00:53:04,480 Speaker 1: it does? He sent us the pints of Planning the Elder. Yes, 853 00:53:04,640 --> 00:53:07,880 Speaker 1: thank you. That your top notch human being. I think 854 00:53:07,920 --> 00:53:10,959 Speaker 1: we met him in San Francisco or show. Yes. Thanks 855 00:53:11,640 --> 00:53:15,960 Speaker 1: yea the famous world renowned Planning the Elder beer, which 856 00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:19,640 Speaker 1: I finally tried and that was delicious. It is dealist ship. Uh, 857 00:53:19,920 --> 00:53:22,120 Speaker 1: thank you very much, everybody. We have more. If you 858 00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:25,000 Speaker 1: didn't hear your name, hang tight, We've got probably a 859 00:53:25,080 --> 00:53:29,600 Speaker 1: couple more episodes worth of administrative details or Thanksgiving is 860 00:53:29,640 --> 00:53:33,120 Speaker 1: what we're calling it now. And uh, in the meantime, 861 00:53:33,200 --> 00:53:34,560 Speaker 1: you can get in touch with us if you want 862 00:53:34,600 --> 00:53:36,840 Speaker 1: to tweet to us. It's s Y s K podcast. 863 00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:40,240 Speaker 1: You can join us on Facebook dot com. It's Facebook 864 00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:42,400 Speaker 1: dot com, slash Stuff you Should Know, send us an 865 00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:45,120 Speaker 1: email to Stuff podcast at how stuff Works dot com, 866 00:53:45,320 --> 00:53:47,560 Speaker 1: and as always, join us at at home on the web. 867 00:53:48,480 --> 00:53:56,040 Speaker 1: Stuff you Should Know dot com. For more on this 868 00:53:56,239 --> 00:53:58,719 Speaker 1: and thousands of other topics, is it how stuff Works 869 00:53:58,760 --> 00:53:59,120 Speaker 1: dot com