Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.
Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts podcast.
Speaker 2: I'm Tracy Alloway.
Speaker 3: And I'm Joe. Why isn't thal Joe?
Speaker 2: Do you think it's fair to say that things seem
Speaker 2: a little uncertain at the moment?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 3: Yes, Well what do you have in mind?
Speaker 4: Okay?
Speaker 3: Well, of course yes, and big things going on.
Speaker 2: So I was thinking particularly of three things. So number
Speaker 2: one is obviously US presidential elections, and things seem very
Speaker 2: uncertain on that front. We're not sure who's going to
Speaker 2: win in November. And more than that, at this point,
Speaker 2: I think we're not entirely sure who the Democratic candidate
Speaker 2: is going to be. There's uncertainty there. But then secondly,
Speaker 2: there's uncertainty about the direction of the stock market in
Speaker 2: a number of ways. So we have seen some of
Speaker 2: the error kicked out of the tires of big outperformers
Speaker 2: from earlier in the year. I'm thinking specifically of Nvidia
Speaker 2: and some of those big tech companies. They've come down recently.
Speaker 2: There are people talking about how AI is the future
Speaker 2: of industry, but there are also people talking about how
Speaker 2: AI is a massive bubble, and I think Goldman Sachs
Speaker 2: had that analysis out earlier this week talking about how
Speaker 2: there was no actual use case for AI, which seems
Speaker 2: to be the polar opposite of some of the enthusiasm
Speaker 2: in the market. And then thirdly, we still have that
Speaker 2: underlying economic tension where it seems like there are some
Speaker 2: signs of a slowdown, but the Fed so far is
Speaker 2: kind of resisting any pressure to cut interest rates. So
Speaker 2: lots of things up in the air at the moment.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, like you said, uncertainty is always with
Speaker 5: in the market, but there are some really big questions.
Speaker 3: About things that are going on. The AI one in.
Speaker 5: Particular, because a lot of people, as you notice, like wow,
Speaker 5: they're really spending a lot of money on all this
Speaker 5: chips and electricity, and the payoff is ambiguous, and.
Speaker 3: So there are a lot of questions about that.
Speaker 5: Clearly, the political landscape, although you know, on questions related
Speaker 5: to the market. Look, the stock market's done really well
Speaker 5: under Joe Biden, it did really well under President Trump,
Speaker 5: seems to mostly go up over time. But yes, the
Speaker 5: age of uncertainty, I would not disagree with you.
Speaker 2: So all of this had me thinking, you know, if
Speaker 2: you're an investor, and particularly a thematic investor. At the moment,
Speaker 2: I think you're facing some tough choices because it's not
Speaker 2: just a range of uncertainties. In some respects, it's like
Speaker 2: polar opposite outcomes. You know, either you get Trump and
Speaker 2: everything that comes with it, or you get Biden and
Speaker 2: everything that comes with that, and some of that is
Speaker 2: very different totally.
Speaker 5: Well, the other thing that I've been thinking about in
Speaker 5: the AI conversation really has driven this home, which is
Speaker 5: that if you're a discretionary investor, now me, I'm just
Speaker 5: spy and die all the way. So I don't have
Speaker 5: to think about all this stuff because I own Nvidia
Speaker 5: and through my S and P five hundred index fund.
Speaker 4: But if in.
Speaker 5: Nvidia falls out of favor and something else rises, well
Speaker 5: I'll have that too, So I'm spy and die. But
Speaker 5: I understand that some people have to like beat the
Speaker 5: benchmark or beat the index, or justify why someone else
Speaker 5: would pay them fees to invest money on their behalf.
Speaker 5: Then of course you really have to get the call correct,
Speaker 5: because the only way that you beat the market over
Speaker 5: this year or last year is if you got the
Speaker 5: AI call, and if you weren't heavy on Nvidia or
Speaker 5: some of these other names. You almost certainly did not
Speaker 5: justify someone giving paying you money to invest, and so
Speaker 5: these are really tough questions for investors who have to
Speaker 5: like do well so to speak relatively to answer yes.
Speaker 2: So I'm very pleased to say that we have the
Speaker 2: perfect guest we are going to bring back on, James
Speaker 2: van Gielan. He is, of course the fault owner of
Speaker 2: Satrini Research. We spoke to him last year about one
Speaker 2: of his big investment themes, which at the time was
Speaker 2: ozembic and the associated GLP one weight loss drugs. That
Speaker 2: was a huge winner in the months since. We're going
Speaker 2: to get a handle on what he's looking at now
Speaker 2: and also his thought process for developing new investment themes
Speaker 2: at a time when a lot of things seem to
Speaker 2: be very uncertain. So James, thanks so much for coming
Speaker 2: back on all thoughts.
Speaker 4: Thanks for having me back.
Speaker 2: What are you looking at nowadays? To start with the
Speaker 2: easy question, Yeah.
Speaker 4: Well, you know, AI obviously is a huge theme in
Speaker 4: the market, and I think part of it, Yeah, have
Speaker 4: you really Yeah, it's this little thing. But I think
Speaker 4: that the most important way to basically track this theme
Speaker 4: is it's one of those technologically innovation driven kind of themes.
Speaker 4: And the way that I viewed thematic investing is along
Speaker 4: this spectrum of you have disruption or continuation, and then
Speaker 4: you have macro drivers or micro drivers. And I'm not
Speaker 4: talking about necessarily macro and the sense of macroeconomics, but
Speaker 4: you know, demographic shifts, even like consumer attitudes, the overton
Speaker 4: windows shifting, just big things changing versus big things staying
Speaker 4: the same. So over the past twelve months, you know,
Speaker 4: there have been probably ten or twelve themes that I
Speaker 4: think have really made themselves down in the market and
Speaker 4: the way that's as it's moved, and right now, there
Speaker 4: have been a few that I've probably overstayed my welcoming.
Speaker 4: I think that some of them are getting a little
Speaker 4: bit frothy.
Speaker 2: And you were early to AI, yeah.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and that's one of the risks of doing this
Speaker 4: kind of investing. You know, there's a great quote from
Speaker 4: Robert Schiller. Nobody has ever made a decision based on
Speaker 4: a number. They always need a story. I don't know
Speaker 4: if that's the exact quote, but another one of my
Speaker 4: favorites is Kyle Harrison said that price is a number
Speaker 4: today multiplied by a story tomorrow. And the way that
Speaker 4: I ve be investing is it's always going to prioritize
Speaker 4: a good story and a good narrative. And that's what
Speaker 4: has the making of a theme, because you need people
Speaker 4: to make the decision to execute a trade and move price,
Speaker 4: and then you also need on the other side something
Speaker 4: to actually happen in the real economy. And as far
Speaker 4: as artificial intelligence, this kind of fast moving innovative theme
Speaker 4: that we don't really you know, you can say what
Speaker 4: is AI going to look like five years out and
Speaker 4: you'll get five different answers from five different people. And
Speaker 4: I started from a place of you know, which became
Speaker 4: consensus very quickly with the picks and shovels, right, and
Speaker 4: then the picks and shovels of the picks and shovels,
Speaker 4: and then you get this thing where you know, during
Speaker 4: the gold Rush, it wasn't just everyone showing up to
Speaker 4: sell picks and shovels, just everyone waiting there. So we
Speaker 4: have to kind of look now for this controversial thing
Speaker 4: of does AI have use cases? And I think it's
Speaker 4: pretty clear that it does if you're looking for it.
Speaker 4: But in terms of like monitoring the way that it's
Speaker 4: going to progress. I think the biggest component here is
Speaker 4: going to be going from B to B to B
Speaker 4: two C. And what I said about two months ago
Speaker 4: was that the company that was going to make this
Speaker 4: really happen, it's not going to be Microsoft, you know
Speaker 4: with Chat, GBT and open AI. I think it's going
Speaker 4: to be Apple. And you know, if any company can
Speaker 4: get it done, it's going to be Apple. And you
Speaker 4: have this kind of dynamic where you need something to
Speaker 4: happen that forces people to use it. Right. It's kind
Speaker 4: of like like Facebook, right, or social media in general,
Speaker 4: where you know there was only so long you could
Speaker 4: go without being connected to everything and everyone. And Apple
Speaker 4: is you know, have you ever texted someone like, Hey,
Speaker 4: I'm coming over and then you get in the car
Speaker 4: and if it connects the car play, it'll give you
Speaker 4: a notification that says, like, you know, directions to Joe's house.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Your phone knows everything about you, right, And your phone
Speaker 4: knows who you are, it knows what you're doing, it
Speaker 4: knows what you want to do, it knows who your
Speaker 4: mom is. And that information combined with Apple's trust in
Speaker 4: the consumer, trust and the idea that they place of
Speaker 4: a high premium on privacy. You can't have this AI
Speaker 4: assistant that knows everything about you if you think that
Speaker 4: it's going to be stored on a server in Kubertino.
Speaker 4: It needs to be on your phone. So the next
Speaker 4: thing is how do we start having these big models
Speaker 4: that you know that are in these very big data
Speaker 4: centers and you know all this CAPEX that's spent on that.
Speaker 4: Now we have to just like every other technological trend,
Speaker 4: we have to miniaturize it, right, and we have to
Speaker 4: basically have your phone doing inference, you know, sending to
Speaker 4: those models, but also these smaller models.
Speaker 5: Can I push back on that real quickly because I've
Speaker 5: given up every piece of information about my entire life
Speaker 5: already to the internet at all. Yeah, of course I
Speaker 5: have just by existing in the world, right and I'm
Speaker 5: not and it all exists on servers somewhere in either
Speaker 5: Kupertino or Amazon servers or whatever. What is it about
Speaker 5: AI specifically that changes that need? Because like I said,
Speaker 5: I've given I didn't I don't want to. But just
Speaker 5: the reality of life in the world is my information
Speaker 5: is already out there.
Speaker 4: So AI has two sides, training and inference, right, And
Speaker 4: you can train on. You know, all this data that
Speaker 4: you've already given up to the faceless kind of entity
Speaker 4: that controls the world. But what AI brings about is
Speaker 4: in real time drawing conclusions from that data. And it's
Speaker 4: two sided. There's convenience and then there's privacy concerns. And
Speaker 4: I agree with you that convenience definitely outweighs privacy concerns
Speaker 4: when it comes to the consumer. But when you have
Speaker 4: this ecosystem that Apple has created with this walled garden,
Speaker 4: and then you kind of alleviate the privacy concerns and
Speaker 4: you have this constant inference that's going on, and there
Speaker 4: will come a time where you know, you'll be walking
Speaker 4: down the street and you'll say, I just called Tracy,
Speaker 4: you know a week ago. What did we talk about
Speaker 4: and when did we say we're going to meet?
Speaker 1: Oh?
Speaker 4: Okay, can you text Tracy and tell her, actually, I
Speaker 4: have a thesis that just got destroyed, so I don't
Speaker 4: really want to talk about that one. And you know,
Speaker 4: can you text Joe and let him know too, And
Speaker 4: then can you look at my calendar when am my velvement?
Speaker 4: You can be walking down the street. Yeah, And the
Speaker 4: productivity gains from your phone doing inference and inferring what
Speaker 4: it knows about you from that data.
Speaker 3: That's huge, real quickly.
Speaker 5: So you mentioned the picks and shovels and video, than
Speaker 5: the picks and shovels who provide the picks and shovels
Speaker 5: and people got to tell you about super micro and
Speaker 5: the racks and maybe Dell super Micro.
Speaker 4: I never heard of it.
Speaker 3: I've heard of it, just so we're clear your long Apple.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm any name that I mentioned inherently, I'm automatically
Speaker 4: going to be longer shot.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you mentioned the privacy concerns, and I just thought
Speaker 2: back to this moment. My husband and I were in
Speaker 2: our kitchen and we were talking about something really innocuous,
Speaker 2: like corn or something, and suddenly Alexa started telling us
Speaker 2: a joke about corn, and like we hadn't said Alexa
Speaker 2: or anything like that, it just started talking like clearly
Speaker 2: had been recording everything that we were saying. And I
Speaker 2: will admit that that was that was kind of a
Speaker 2: jarring experience. I would be less surprised if my Apple
Speaker 2: phone did that versus my Alexa that I use to
Speaker 2: turn on the lights and things like that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it turns out that large language models are really
Speaker 4: good at language.
Speaker 2: Yeah, surprising.
Speaker 4: I think that the next kind of picks and shovels idea.
Speaker 4: The thing is everyone's always well, what are we going
Speaker 4: to invest in that's doing the use cases? And then
Speaker 4: those same people will come around and say, why are
Speaker 4: you know these five stocks driving the entire market? And
Speaker 4: the thing is the latency between a company starting and
Speaker 4: becoming successful and doing an IPO has gotten a lot
Speaker 4: longer in the past, like two decades, So if you're
Speaker 4: a public equity investor, you might not really get to
Speaker 4: the use cases that you can invest in are those
Speaker 4: five stocks and combine that with you know, everything else,
Speaker 4: and like you said, the uncertainty. When there's uncertainty, people
Speaker 4: tend to crowd into things that they know are going
Speaker 4: to work. I think that really the picks and shovels
Speaker 4: thing will probably play out again. But when it comes
Speaker 4: to EDJI and doing inference onto and kind of I
Speaker 4: mean this is probably a controversial statement, but I think
Speaker 4: that we might see the first real true replacement cycle,
Speaker 4: like real replacement cycle where Apple comes out with the
Speaker 4: new phone and it has all these productivity gains, and
Speaker 4: it has all this new hardware, and you know, it
Speaker 4: can do these things, and if you don't have that phone,
Speaker 4: you can't do it, and it becomes kind of like
Speaker 4: that sci fi movie Gatica, where you know, yeah, if
Speaker 4: you're left out, you're you're just you're just left behind.
Speaker 5: I've been wondering about this because at some point in
Speaker 5: my life it's stopped being important to upgrade. I mean,
Speaker 5: at some point in my life it's stopped being important
Speaker 5: or interesting to even tune into, like the new Apple events,
Speaker 5: and those used to be big events online, and then
Speaker 5: people stopped. And then at one point, if someone asked me,
Speaker 5: what iPhone do you have, I would have told them
Speaker 5: the anti Zycle. I have the iPhone five for whatever.
Speaker 5: I have no idea which one I have right now.
Speaker 5: I got a couple of years ago. It does everything
Speaker 5: I need. I have zero idea which one it is.
Speaker 5: So I've been sort of wondering. Yeah, So you think
Speaker 5: that there's the potential, at least for some unlock of
Speaker 5: new capabilities where the people who don't have that new
Speaker 5: phone actually feel, oh, I really just can't interact with
Speaker 5: the same way that people who have it do.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and that kind of replacement cycle drives that new
Speaker 4: picks and shovels thesis where you're looking at all these
Speaker 4: kind of you know, system on chip names, and that's
Speaker 4: where I see this theme that you know, everyone is
Speaker 4: talking about going But the thing about thematic equity is
Speaker 4: that if you let it, it just becomes momentum investing,
Speaker 4: because themes are stories, and stories translate into momentum very easily.
Speaker 4: And when people do an association with momentum, they're always
Speaker 4: thinking about kind of momentum inable market like what we've
Speaker 4: been seeing. And you know that's not the case at all.
Speaker 4: There was plenty of themes in twenty twenty two when
Speaker 4: everything else was going down. I mean, tech going down
Speaker 4: was a theme. You know, the interest rate hikes, the
Speaker 4: inflation for the first time that you know, that's a theme.
Speaker 4: That's a story that grabs people's attention and makes them
Speaker 4: go to their terminal and execute a trade. And same
Speaker 4: thing with energy, and you know, the war in Ukraine.
Speaker 4: And so I try my hardest to it's super cliche,
Speaker 4: but think a few months ahead at least.
Speaker 2: So for something like the US presidential elections. You know,
Speaker 2: again things are currently up in the air, and you
Speaker 2: can look at the polls and have a sense of
Speaker 2: who might have a lead, but overall it's pretty difficult
Speaker 2: to tell who's going to be in office come next year.
Speaker 2: How do you start preparing for something like that from
Speaker 2: an perspective.
Speaker 4: So if the question how do you start preparing the
Speaker 4: answer early early, you start preparing early. Right. No, I
Speaker 4: don't think that, you know, was anyone surprised that we
Speaker 4: have an election this year? Yeah?
Speaker 3: Some people, Yeah, you know, some people really are because
Speaker 3: of how few people have been paying attention.
Speaker 4: I mean, that's It's one of those things where I
Speaker 4: think it's like when you're a kid and you touch
Speaker 4: the stove and you get burned, and you're well, I'm
Speaker 4: not doing that again. That's how I think the twenty
Speaker 4: twenty election was for me. So as soon as I
Speaker 4: saw that the year was an election year, I started
Speaker 4: kind of preparing for this. This was back in January
Speaker 4: when the odds of Trump even being a nominee, right,
Speaker 4: or like being the Republican nominee, were like twenty percent.
Speaker 4: It was relatively easy back then to look at these
Speaker 4: very kind of exposed equities and say, this is a
Speaker 4: swap I guess on Trump being a nominee.
Speaker 5: So I've ied some cell side research about who would
Speaker 5: be exposed. One clever one the company five below. He
Speaker 5: sells a bunch of cheap stuff, which you can't sell
Speaker 5: cheap stuff if there's a massive tariffs on cheap stuff.
Speaker 5: And that stock has been Oh that's a total dog.
Speaker 5: That stock was over two hundred back in March and
Speaker 5: now it's at one hundred and two. Of the time
Speaker 5: we're talking about this, what stands out to you is.
Speaker 4: Being exposed depending on what the theme is there, I
Speaker 4: create either a long short basket to kind of gain exposure,
Speaker 4: because I don't ever want that kind of idiosyncratic like
Speaker 4: single name equity risk where a company ends up doing
Speaker 4: really well and has nothing to do with my actual thesis.
Speaker 4: So I constructed a basket that kind of played on
Speaker 4: a few different themes. Tariffs was a big one of them. Right,
Speaker 4: So you look at how much comes from China. First,
Speaker 4: you look at Trump's what he says, right, one hundred
Speaker 4: percent tariffs, sixty percent tariffs that you know, and the
Speaker 4: thing is protectionism from China. Trade that's not that's not
Speaker 4: a part is an issue anymore. Right, There are no
Speaker 4: China doves in the government. But Trump is certainly a
Speaker 4: unique brand of that when it comes to the trade policy.
Speaker 4: So that seemed like the most asymmetric way to kind
Speaker 4: of capture that. So you look at five below for example, restoration, hardware,
Speaker 4: floor and decor, you know, best Buy, these companies that
Speaker 4: really do a lot of business when it comes to China,
Speaker 4: and that's a lot of their impacosts and tariffs really
Speaker 4: would affect them. And that's your short side. And then
Speaker 4: you say, okay, well who is going to be all
Speaker 4: right here? And that comes down to pricing power. You know,
Speaker 4: if consumers start consolidating their spending because of tariff's, who
Speaker 4: can kind of keep that pricing power regardless? And like Costco, Walmart,
Speaker 4: some of the automotive parts like O'Reilly, that's your longside.
Speaker 4: So that makes up one component of the basket and
Speaker 4: then move on. Okay, And the thing is, for the
Speaker 4: past three three years, one of my exposures to a
Speaker 4: theme has been bidnomics. So you know, that was big
Speaker 4: on electrification and infrastructure spending and generally fading the idea
Speaker 4: that we could have a recession when fiscal policy is
Speaker 4: spending like a drunken sailor. And we said, okay, well,
Speaker 4: now we need some kind of offsetting beta. Here, we
Speaker 4: need some Trump beta. And there are these orphan equities
Speaker 4: like Fannie May and Freddie Mack. And you know, I
Speaker 4: looked at the story and I said, I don't think
Speaker 4: that that's going to happen. He didn't do it the
Speaker 4: first time, but it doesn't matter because it's a story.
Speaker 4: So people are going to take action based on that story.
Speaker 4: Then looking at things like private prisons and law enforcement.
Speaker 2: I remember that from twenty sixteen that was like a
Speaker 2: big Trump winner.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and that but that was when I was kind
Speaker 4: of looking at this. That I think was the first
Speaker 4: place that I start is basically sell side research is
Speaker 4: to see what is being said. And there were a
Speaker 4: lot of kind of well, here's how you know, these
Speaker 4: equities performed when Trump was president, and here's how they
Speaker 4: performed when Biden was president. And if you go into
Speaker 4: anything like that with that kind of thinking where you're
Speaker 4: just overfitting to like two periods of time, I mean
Speaker 4: when Biden was elected, if you had that kind of thinking,
Speaker 4: you would have went long clean energy right in short
Speaker 4: and short oil, and you would have gotten destroyed because like,
Speaker 4: no matter who's the president, there are going to be
Speaker 4: bear of force as at work, so you really have
Speaker 4: to try to specify and get rid of as much
Speaker 4: incongruous kind of correlation. So names like Axin or GEO
Speaker 4: Group or you know, Corcivic, those will probably benefit. I
Speaker 4: had kind of a fun one that was a company
Speaker 4: that makes the storefront glass for retail stores, because I figured,
Speaker 4: no matter who wins this election, there's going to be
Speaker 4: people that are angry.
Speaker 5: It's funny you mentioned fan you may equity because it
Speaker 5: still exists there. It's like a cockroach. But I've always
Speaker 5: though it's like the Boomer's crypto.
Speaker 4: It's like that.
Speaker 3: It's like if you look at like there is.
Speaker 5: A Fanny and Freddy Twitter, Yeah, and it's like they
Speaker 5: talk the same way that people are talking about the
Speaker 5: random token.
Speaker 4: But their money spends just as well, right, and it
Speaker 4: moves the bid up. Yeah. So I think that I
Speaker 4: came into this year all prepared, Right, here's how the
Speaker 4: basket is going to look. The thing that really made
Speaker 4: me the most satisfied about this, I mean, the basket
Speaker 4: has done quite well because Trump odds went from twenty
Speaker 4: percent of being the nominee to you know, sixty three
Speaker 4: percent of being the president.
Speaker 3: Uh huh.
Speaker 4: And the performances tracked that pretty well. And there are
Speaker 4: a few other aspects of that basket, but the thing
Speaker 4: that obviously didn't make me happy because something that I
Speaker 4: owned went down. But right after that debate, which I think,
Speaker 4: you know, there were a lot of people that were
Speaker 4: surprised by that, And I guess you could if you
Speaker 4: were drawing a chart of like should I be concerned
Speaker 4: about Biden's performance in a debate after the State of
Speaker 4: the Union, and you you know, maybe you had some
Speaker 4: moments where like he's talking about you know, where's that
Speaker 4: lady that and the lady died three weeks ago or something,
Speaker 4: or or you know.
Speaker 3: That there were signs, there were.
Speaker 4: Signs, but you know, I wasn't necessarily surprised by that.
Speaker 4: And when that happened, the Bidenomics basket, you know, goes
Speaker 4: down by five percent, and then the Trump basket goes
Speaker 4: up by ten, and you know, that's kind of reinforcing
Speaker 4: where it shows you that you know, you're not just
Speaker 4: riding beta, You've been allocated to the right thing.
Speaker 2: I was going to ask, how you wait those respective baskets,
Speaker 2: like a Biden long short basket versus a Trump long
Speaker 2: short basket, but maybe maybe you equal weight it and
Speaker 2: then the returns are asymmetric as you just mentioned.
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's some discretionary aspect where I think that you know,
Speaker 4: something matters more than or that investors are paying more attention,
Speaker 4: you know, don't. I didn't think back in March that
Speaker 4: this tariff aspect was getting as much attention. I figured
Speaker 4: that would kind of progress and get more attention as
Speaker 4: the year went on, as Trump said more about trade policy,
Speaker 4: whereas something that's you know, as first order thinking, as
Speaker 4: you know, if Trump's president, We're going to need more
Speaker 4: you know, border prisons or you know that. So the
Speaker 4: waiting kind of changes throughout the course of the narrative progressing.
Speaker 5: It's kind of weird, like going back to if we
Speaker 5: had a one hundred percent teariff on imported goods, and
Speaker 5: this is a little bit of a sidetrack. I feel
Speaker 5: like that would be incredibly disruptive to the way we
Speaker 5: do economics in this country. And I don't have any
Speaker 5: opinion on whether it be good or bad. I'll leave
Speaker 5: that to others. It is sort of funny to think
Speaker 5: we're going to have this big teariff, this big change
Speaker 5: and how we interact with the world, and so we're
Speaker 5: just going to take it all out on you know,
Speaker 5: five billion dollar company five below. Like, I just have
Speaker 5: a feeling that if we did have this wholesale orientation
Speaker 5: of how we trade, like, they're not going to be
Speaker 5: the only company that no effects.
Speaker 4: And I think when people kind of look at when
Speaker 4: I share my portfolio with people, which you know, I
Speaker 4: know some people are kind of neurotic about that, but
Speaker 4: I'm not big enough to where I think that someone's
Speaker 4: going to, you know, attack me. But when I show
Speaker 4: my portfolio to people, they are kind of taken aback
Speaker 4: by how many securities are in there. But the way
Speaker 4: that I view it is, you know, I have diversification
Speaker 4: at the security level, but I'm very concentrated in.
Speaker 3: These themes in the somatic level.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so like GLP ones might make up fifteen to
Speaker 4: twenty percent of the portfolio, but it's not just Lily
Speaker 4: and it's not just Novo Nordisk. It's also you know,
Speaker 4: something like Torrid, which is a woman's kind of fashion
Speaker 4: for plus size clothing.
Speaker 2: Oh, you would be short that one.
Speaker 4: No, So well think about it, right, you don't teleport
Speaker 4: your weight if you're three hundred pounds and you go
Speaker 4: down six sizes. First off, you're happy that you're losing weight, right,
Speaker 4: so you want to show off, show that off, but
Speaker 4: you're still plus sized.
Speaker 2: Oh I see, Okay, so you're.
Speaker 4: Buying clothes the whole way down.
Speaker 2: Ah.
Speaker 4: And then there is in fact, you know, like this
Speaker 4: is like well documented, there is a re bound effect
Speaker 4: from GLP one drugs. If you stop them, you regain
Speaker 4: a portion of the weight.
Speaker 2: Oh so it's actually like the weight fluctuation that matters here.
Speaker 4: Okay. I mean, if you know anyone that's overweight that
Speaker 4: struggled with their weight, they have these closets full of
Speaker 4: just you know, various sizes of clothes. So you know
Speaker 4: that the general idea is applying second order thinking to
Speaker 4: capture a theme in not just the most obvious way,
Speaker 4: because that's going to be the most crowded way. And
Speaker 4: that's that's like I said before, you really want to
Speaker 4: try to not just have this be story based trend
Speaker 4: of following.
Speaker 2: Wait, I love talking about second order effects and I
Speaker 2: have a bunch of favorite examples that I have probably
Speaker 2: said on this podcast before. So I'll spare all our
Speaker 2: listeners from repeating those. But do you have a favorite
Speaker 2: sort of second order play.
Speaker 4: I want to hear yours first.
Speaker 2: Well, the one I always think about, Well, there's the
Speaker 2: gummy Bear one, and then there's also like the Sawdust one,
Speaker 2: Gummy Bear. Hold on, I'm gonna have to look this up.
Speaker 3: No, I remember what it was.
Speaker 2: Do you remember the gummy bear one? Do you remember
Speaker 2: both of them?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 3: Okay, well I don't remember the sawdust one. I'll look
Speaker 3: up the chickens or something like that. And there wasn't
Speaker 3: cows in milk, right, So after the.
Speaker 5: Housing bus, then there wasn't enough wood and there wasn't
Speaker 5: enough sawdust, and that wasn't good for cows. And then
Speaker 5: that was so there was less milk.
Speaker 2: So no one would have expected as a result of
Speaker 2: the two thousand and eight housing collapse that you would
Speaker 2: see milk prices go up because there was less milk.
Speaker 2: But apparently that's what happened. Because the cows didn't have
Speaker 2: as much sawdust, they weren't as comfortable, they weren't as productive,
Speaker 2: and so there was less milk. And then what was
Speaker 2: the gummy bear.
Speaker 3: Gummy Bear one?
Speaker 5: Was that this is what someone told us that due
Speaker 5: to the collapse an auto production during the pandemic, that
Speaker 5: there wasn't as much demand for leather for the seating,
Speaker 5: and that a lot of the I guess gelatine that
Speaker 5: was needed for gummy bears came out of that supply
Speaker 5: chain or something like that, so it affected gummy bear
Speaker 5: production when the chip stopped coming.
Speaker 4: I mean, I would love to meet the person that
Speaker 4: predicted that. Yeah, right, right, if you. And so when
Speaker 4: it comes to what I do, there is kind of
Speaker 4: like a you get kind of deferred in your ability
Speaker 4: to be like, yeah, called it, you know, because I
Speaker 4: don't forego security analysis entirely. I don't, you know, I
Speaker 4: make sure that if I'm shorting a company that it's
Speaker 4: a bad company, or if I'm buying a company, that
Speaker 4: it's mispriced and you know that it has upside. So
Speaker 4: you never really know for sure. And sometimes even you know,
Speaker 4: they'll get on the earnings call, especially if it's like
Speaker 4: a short and you know what or you think you
Speaker 4: know why it went down. You know, this is like
Speaker 4: the last time I was on, we talked about the
Speaker 4: Titan Stabler. Oh yeah, right, And obviously they eventually started saying, well,
Speaker 4: this probably has to do with those weight loss drugs.
Speaker 4: But you know, in the beginning, when it's going down
Speaker 4: and when the company's you know, seeing decreased revenue, sometimes
Speaker 4: it takes them a little bit to like realize what's
Speaker 4: going on, and sometimes they never do.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 2: Well, I remember that about restoration hardware too, because it
Speaker 2: started going down like a year or two ago, and
Speaker 2: people were worried about like, oh, this is a recessionary signal.
Speaker 2: And I remember seeing this online and basically saying like, well,
Speaker 2: maybe it has more to do about with restoration hardware
Speaker 2: specific things and issues there rather than macroeconomic conditions. And
Speaker 2: people went nuts. But that's exactly what it was, right,
Speaker 2: Like the renovation boom and the furniture boom continued for
Speaker 2: some time after that.
Speaker 4: Restoration hardware, Yeah, it wasn't a recessionary signal, but there
Speaker 4: is a great signal to be had in the story
Speaker 4: of restoration hardware, which is if you own a company
Speaker 4: and the CEO starts coming on and spends half the
Speaker 4: earnings call talking about macroeconomics, Oh yeah, sell that.
Speaker 2: God, that's a bad sign.
Speaker 5: That's a good yeah that It was like a famous
Speaker 5: conference call, and it was right in twenty twenty one,
Speaker 5: and it was sort of like an equivalent of although
Speaker 5: one of the best moments on TV. Ever, like the
Speaker 5: Kramer they are nuts or whatever, They're blind at the
Speaker 5: FED in two thousand and six or seven about Bear
Speaker 5: Stearns and he went on, He's like, they have no.
Speaker 3: Idea what's coming on recession. Recession.
Speaker 5: A bunch of people took that seriously, but it seemed
Speaker 5: like a restoration hardware story, and then the rest of
Speaker 5: the economy just kept chugging along.
Speaker 2: Wait, there are times when uncertainty kind of rears its
Speaker 2: ugly head and does wreck some investment theses. Maybe wreck
Speaker 2: is a strong word, but I know you were, for instance,
Speaker 2: looking into how to play water and water shortages in
Speaker 2: the future. But lo and behold, a couple of weeks ago,
Speaker 2: the Supreme Court made a decision having to do with
Speaker 2: something called the Chevron deference that seems to have caused
Speaker 2: additional uncertainty for that particular thesis. Can you walk us
Speaker 2: through what happened there?
Speaker 4: Well? First off, water in the realm of thematic equity,
Speaker 4: water is waterloo kind of it's this battle that it's
Speaker 4: always a good idea to be long water. If you
Speaker 4: think the GDP is going to go up, unless you're
Speaker 4: in China, where water use has actually declined as VP
Speaker 4: has gone up because they've been really serious about efficiency.
Speaker 4: But the idea is, if you buy water, you're never
Speaker 4: really going to blow up, you know, unless like really,
Speaker 4: unless it's like global financial crisis. You'll be pretty safe.
Speaker 4: You can. There's always going to be some doom and
Speaker 4: gloom about water. So if you get on the phone
Speaker 4: with an investor, you can say, well, we own water
Speaker 4: because of you know, here's this big report from whatever.
Speaker 4: You know. The end it says that you know, water
Speaker 4: scarcity and this then and the other thing, and you
Speaker 4: ever see well, you guys, obviously have you've seen the
Speaker 4: movie The Big Short? Correct? Yes, so you know how
Speaker 4: that movie ends the last scene less?
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, And I didn't understand it. It was like
Speaker 5: these like title cards and they're like next Water and
Speaker 5: then it faced them like I was like yeah, and
Speaker 5: then he's like oh and he's buying Almond Firms and
Speaker 5: I was like they like left it hanging. I was like, yeah,
Speaker 5: what's the I didn't get it. That was Michael Burry
Speaker 5: Michael and now Next Water Firms and then they fade
Speaker 5: to black we're just ending to a movie.
Speaker 4: Ever, so yeah, I think like when the levee breaks
Speaker 4: is playing in the background, and you know, but it's
Speaker 4: really dramatic, right, Michael Burry that you know, our protagonist
Speaker 4: is only investing in one thing, ellipses water. Yeah, And
Speaker 4: you know that's the way that this thesis has kind
Speaker 4: of been presented for decades, where it's this kind of
Speaker 4: apocalyptic you have. You have this idea in your head
Speaker 4: where I mean everybody has this, and it's like an
Speaker 4: evolutionary fear. The water has to be okay, the water
Speaker 4: quality has to be okay, and there has to be
Speaker 4: enough of it or else we can't do anything. So
Speaker 4: it's always been that kind of thing. And I really
Speaker 4: didn't want to just write about water because it's like, well,
Speaker 4: you know, here's what's going on with water. So I
Speaker 4: wanted to focus on the non apocalyptic parts. And I
Speaker 4: don't want to buy anything because of pessimism. I want
Speaker 4: to you know. And what had happened was these microplastics,
Speaker 4: these forever chemicals. The EPA handed down a law that
Speaker 4: mandated that you have to control the level of microplastics
Speaker 4: serve as their you know, p fas, right, so I
Speaker 4: spoke with people in the industry, and everyone is really
Speaker 4: really excite. If you are in the business of you know,
Speaker 4: remediation or you know, making sure that the water is clean,
Speaker 4: you were really excited about this and probably still are.
Speaker 4: But the thing about thematic investing is that uncertainty is
Speaker 4: kind of anathema to it. Where people want to buy
Speaker 4: on a story. You know that drugn Miller quote. I
Speaker 4: made one hundred and twenty percent of my money on
Speaker 4: the simple obvious ideas and lost twenty percent on everything else.
Speaker 4: And that's kind of the way that I viewed these
Speaker 4: themes where you want this cultural touchstone. You want everyone
Speaker 4: to realize that, oh, this is going to be big,
Speaker 4: this is a big deal. And whether that's you know,
Speaker 4: in a niche area or in a wide ranging area,
Speaker 4: that is less important. But it has to have that moment.
Speaker 4: And when you have something that adds uncertainty, even if
Speaker 4: you disagree. Right when it comes to what happened with
Speaker 4: the Chevron deference, in the simplest possible terms, basically the
Speaker 4: stated policy has been for the judiciary to defer to experts.
Speaker 4: So if you have you know, yes, exactly, and obviously
Speaker 4: the campus small government doesn't love this because they view
Speaker 4: this as you know, unelected technocrats that are kind of
Speaker 4: driving policy. And what happened with Chevron defference was for
Speaker 4: a long time, if you have the EPA saying no,
Speaker 4: this is bad, they would say, okay, yeah, probably you know,
Speaker 4: you know more than I do. Now with this ruling,
Speaker 4: that is not the case anymore, right, and that has
Speaker 4: wide ranging impacts that I don't know because I am
Speaker 4: not an attorney.
Speaker 5: And so the basic gist with water here is that, okay,
Speaker 5: there was a theme, not the apocalypse and of water,
Speaker 5: but this assistant demand for water cleaning due to microplastics.
Speaker 3: The EPA had put down this.
Speaker 5: Rule, and the Chevron ruling by the Supreme Court raises
Speaker 5: ambiguity about the teeth of that, or the enforceability or
Speaker 5: the persistence of that. And this is the kind of
Speaker 5: thing that's toxic to a thematic investor.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know, I still believe that that thesis
Speaker 4: is fine. I mean, I look at it, and I've
Speaker 4: spoken to attorneys and they say, well, you have these
Speaker 4: two existing appeals, but this happened before the Chevron deference ruling,
Speaker 4: so you have to track those appeals. But that's the
Speaker 4: only thing that matters. This isn't going to change. You know,
Speaker 4: whatever was going to happen before this ruling, that's what's
Speaker 4: going to happen now. If those appeals are you know,
Speaker 4: overturned or upheld, that's what matters. And I think that
Speaker 4: it's still going to work. But the thing is, I
Speaker 4: was playing this story and I'm playing the fact that
Speaker 4: you know, like a week after I wrote about it
Speaker 4: started becoming this like cultural thing. You see these memes
Speaker 4: on Twitter about like microplastics and.
Speaker 2: In certain parts of the Male anatomy, Yeah, this goes
Speaker 2: on the radio. So I think we can't say yeah, I.
Speaker 4: Mean, I stop myself. You're the one that said it.
Speaker 4: But you know, it's the idea where nobody can be
Speaker 4: okay with the water. And there's always been an issue
Speaker 4: of payers like to see things. They like to pay
Speaker 4: for things that they can see, so they like to
Speaker 4: pay for the roads being fixed, or they like to
Speaker 4: pay for like new things being built, but you don't
Speaker 4: really see the water. But with social media and the
Speaker 4: idea that you can make everyone aware of like microplastics,
Speaker 4: and there's so many emerging contaminants out there just from
Speaker 4: you know, the on a bashed capitalists, progress and industry.
Speaker 4: So I still think that there will be companies that
Speaker 4: will make a lot more money because of pfas. But
Speaker 4: for now I have to say, well, I don't know
Speaker 4: if the risk is worth the reward here. Maybe I'll
Speaker 4: just wait until these appeals are decided and then the
Speaker 4: story can progress.
Speaker 5: I want to talk a little bit more about the
Speaker 5: AI story where we started, and so, first of all,
Speaker 5: Druck and Miller, there were two instances in the last year.
Speaker 5: I was just like, so he said something about like
Speaker 5: Chad GPT came out. He knew that they were training
Speaker 5: on in video chips and he went long in video
Speaker 5: and killed it. And then there was the story of
Speaker 5: Javier Mila having won in Argentina and claims that he
Speaker 5: went on perplexity AI and should I invest with Argentina
Speaker 5: and it gave him some ETFs and he bought them
Speaker 5: and he did well. So much admiration for this sort
Speaker 5: of simplistic thinking, and well done to him. But here, okay,
Speaker 5: the sort of Chad GPT AI and video thing very
Speaker 5: well known, and now there are all these questions about, Okay,
Speaker 5: a lot of money is being spent on chips and electricity,
Speaker 5: and is there going to be this payoff or will
Speaker 5: who will get the payoff from that? How do you
Speaker 5: think about that specific question outside of Apple and I
Speaker 5: understand your argument about why they're in the position to
Speaker 5: actually deliver valuable services in the broader world, businesses feeling
Speaker 5: like they need an AI strategy or needing it to
Speaker 5: like complement their software, how do you sort of begin
Speaker 5: to answer that question.
Speaker 4: Well, it seems like the question that you're asking really
Speaker 4: is is it a bubble?
Speaker 5: Well, there's two ways that it could be a bubble, right.
Speaker 5: There could be people who are just overpaying for the
Speaker 5: stock because they feel like I want to ride this wave,
Speaker 5: or businesses overpaying for the capex because they think that
Speaker 5: they need to do something with AI to be in
Speaker 5: the game, and it turns out that maybe they don't.
Speaker 5: So I'm actually kind of interested in the second one
Speaker 5: of not whether there's an equity market bubble in AI,
Speaker 5: but the question of whether the business investment which is
Speaker 5: pouring into AI related things will materialize as results in
Speaker 5: revenues for the company spend.
Speaker 2: It's sort of the idea that Okay, everyone has to
Speaker 2: develop their own in house AI offering to compete, but like, actually,
Speaker 2: maybe in five years time we find that everyone just
Speaker 2: buys an off the shelf AI thing and plugs it
Speaker 2: in like they do Microsoft Word or whatever, rather than
Speaker 2: spend billions like on their own thing.
Speaker 5: And whether the sort of quality of the services that
Speaker 5: an AIOD could produce for the companies, whether it's a
Speaker 5: software company like Salesforce or whatever it else, actually turns
Speaker 5: out to be something valuable that they can resell and
Speaker 5: get capture value from their end customers.
Speaker 4: So I think the answer to your question, or at
Speaker 4: least some color on that question, is I don't think
Speaker 4: that there's ever been a truly revolutionary technology that has
Speaker 4: not been accompanied by some excess capex that we look
Speaker 4: back and we say, well, that was wasteful, right, because
Speaker 4: when we look back, we also have the benefit of
Speaker 4: seeing which areas get commoditized, and we look at how
Speaker 4: cheap you know, whether it's broadband or you know, you
Speaker 4: can go all the way back to the railwayman roads, Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 4: you can. You know. The thing is, you know, without
Speaker 4: steam engines, we wouldn't have trains, and without trains we
Speaker 4: wouldn't have planes, and without you know, and there was
Speaker 4: this progress that was made and it catapulted forward the
Speaker 4: human race. But that doesn't necessarily mean that they were
Speaker 4: responsible about it, right, that they built too much, they
Speaker 4: built too fast, they financed capital projects through equity sales
Speaker 4: at extremely elevated prices, and you know, I mean, but
Speaker 4: that doesn't change the fact that during the railway Mania
Speaker 4: the total route mileage of railways in the UK went
Speaker 4: from you know, like eighteen hundred miles in eighteen forty
Speaker 4: three to six thousand miles in eighteen fifty, so two
Speaker 4: hundred increase in seven years. And you know, maybe we
Speaker 4: have to ask ourselves sometimes, do you need this CAPEX
Speaker 4: bubble in order to progress the technology?
Speaker 3: Sure?
Speaker 4: And I think that yeah, there are certainly areas, and
Speaker 4: I don't think that we'll know exactly where we say
Speaker 4: well that was irresponsible or where we say well that
Speaker 4: was a great business decision because you look at you know,
Speaker 4: it obviously is intertwined. You can say, well, I care
Speaker 4: about the CABEC side, but I don't care about the
Speaker 4: stock market side. But you know, the companies can sell
Speaker 4: equity and fund cabex with that. And you look at
Speaker 4: some of the cell side estimates on electricity for example,
Speaker 4: and I have a great screenshot or actually it might
Speaker 4: just be an actual picture because I think this was
Speaker 4: in nineteen ninety eight or and it's of a cell
Speaker 4: side report that is talking about the info electric revolution
Speaker 4: and the fact that if everyone is going to have
Speaker 4: a personal computer, and every personal computer is going to
Speaker 4: be connected to the internet, well, you know, that's going
Speaker 4: to be a billion dollars or a trillion dollars of
Speaker 4: spending on computers, and then there's going to be a
Speaker 4: trillion dollars of spending on the electric grid, and the
Speaker 4: electricity demand is going to grow at a thirteen percent
Speaker 4: keger for the next two days.
Speaker 2: It sounds very familiar.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, it sounds super familiar. And then you look
Speaker 4: at electricity demand over the last twenty years and it's flat.
Speaker 4: And I think that that's just a natural progression of
Speaker 4: a new technology. That's something that almost has to happen
Speaker 4: where you have you know, if you want to deliver
Speaker 4: the promise in certain places, it's going to be overstated.
Speaker 4: And do we need a better electric grid? Yeah, we
Speaker 4: really need better electric grid. It's it's terrible, especially in
Speaker 4: some places, it's just terrible. Maybe what we need is
Speaker 4: for data centers to get built in areas where they
Speaker 4: can just revise the electric grid. But I do think
Speaker 4: that there are areas where we'll look back and say
Speaker 4: that was arissible cap E spending.
Speaker 2: What would you need to see to take money off
Speaker 2: the table from some of your AI plays or have
Speaker 2: you done that already?
Speaker 4: I'm always taking money off the table. It's not even
Speaker 4: a question of like, I mean, my job is to invest,
Speaker 4: not to not invest, and it takes a lot for
Speaker 4: me to sell something and go to cash like a lot.
Speaker 4: You know. I'm a strong believer that there's always an
Speaker 4: opportunity somewhere. That got put to the test in twenty
Speaker 4: twenty two, and there were there were opportunities in planning
Speaker 4: places on the long side of the short side. And
Speaker 4: I think that when I make that decision, I'm not
Speaker 4: saying do I think that this has reached a peak.
Speaker 4: I'm saying, do I think that there are better opportunities elsewhere?
Speaker 4: And sometimes that is just the natural progression of some
Speaker 4: a narrative in the market or just real things happening.
Speaker 4: I mean, in Nvidia has pretty much priced in the
Speaker 4: idea that we need to build out these data centers
Speaker 4: and now we have to say, Okay, well what else
Speaker 4: are we gonna do? And you know, I mean, it
Speaker 4: doesn't matter if I'm a believer or non believer. It
Speaker 4: only matters if the market is all right.
Speaker 2: James Vanguila and from Succrini Research, thank you so much
Speaker 2: for coming back on all lots.
Speaker 4: Thank you.
Speaker 2: That's fun. Yeah, Joe, I enjoyed that conversation. I like
Speaker 2: just thinking through investment ideas.
Speaker 5: No, I like that one, just getting to like think
Speaker 5: about you know. So, actually what really struck me was
Speaker 5: his comment actually in.
Speaker 3: The water part of it.
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, what becomes the fly and the ointment of
Speaker 5: a thesis? And why when does it become like, Okay,
Speaker 5: here's a theme, but it's just not going to take hold,
Speaker 5: yes hard enough, so to speak, such that it becomes
Speaker 5: a real investing theme. And so the idea is like, yeah,
Speaker 5: there probably is going to be a lot more demand
Speaker 5: for filtration in the future to clean the water. But
Speaker 5: with a little bit of a regulatory ambiguity now in
Speaker 5: the wake of the Chevron decision, then suddenly like this
Speaker 5: is just not going to take hold the way it
Speaker 5: might have in a different decision, and therefore it's not
Speaker 5: going to be quite as powerful as an investing theme is,
Speaker 5: Like it.
Speaker 3: Was very useful.
Speaker 1: Well.
Speaker 2: I thought the framing of price and story mattering to
Speaker 2: thematic investment was important because there is a situation where
Speaker 2: you can be a little bit too smart and you
Speaker 2: see something that no one else possibly sees, and then
Speaker 2: you know that something just never gets reflected in the price,
Speaker 2: like there happened instance of that, instances of that throughout history,
Speaker 2: and so you really need both the I guess the
Speaker 2: underpricing or you know, at least the price to be
Speaker 2: like relatively attractive, plus the momentum provided by that story
Speaker 2: to make really compelling investment. And then if you get
Speaker 2: something like in video where you know, at least up
Speaker 2: until maybe the beginning of last year, it was underpriced
Speaker 2: certainly relative to where it is right now, plus all
Speaker 2: that attention from investors, then you got this massive winner.
Speaker 5: I'm so impressed by those drunken Miller comments where he's like, oh, yeah,
Speaker 5: they used in video chips for chat GBTAI seems like
Speaker 5: a big deal.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go along, and whereas me, I'm like, oh,
Speaker 3: they already know.
Speaker 5: Everyone knew that they were like using in video chips
Speaker 5: so it's all priced into the market.
Speaker 2: But that's why there are a lot of people saying,
Speaker 2: like a year ago, that it was all priced in.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I hadn't seen that five below chart either.
Speaker 5: That's no, so I hadn't looked at the chart in
Speaker 5: a while. But it really look if you.
Speaker 2: Have a one hundred percent over two hundred to like one hundred,
Speaker 2: if you a few months, lety.
Speaker 5: Just put that there is not much you could sell
Speaker 5: for five dollars in below in the world, in a
Speaker 5: world of one hundred percent tariffs.
Speaker 2: Yes, I'm sure there's a pun you could do then
Speaker 2: about the stock price being below. Oh yeah something, But okay,
Speaker 2: shall we leave it there.
Speaker 3: Let's leave it there.
Speaker 2: This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast.
Speaker 2: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.
Speaker 5: And I'm Jill Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart.
Speaker 5: Follow Ergust James van Gielan, He's at Saitrini seven. Follow
Speaker 5: our producers Kerman Rodriguez at Carman Ermann dash Ol Bennett
Speaker 5: at Dashbot and Kilbrooks at Kilbrooks. Thank you to our
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