1
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

2
00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

3
00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119
Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android

4
00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

5
00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,120
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

6
00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:27,800
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Threshold of the Weekend, the Friday edition

7
00:00:27,880 --> 00:00:31,000
Speaker 2: of Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio. We're on satellite

8
00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:33,159
Speaker 2: radio channel one twenty one. You could always watch the

9
00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:37,240
Speaker 2: radio on TV here at YouTube search Bloomberg Business News Live.

10
00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:39,479
Speaker 2: It's a good day to do it, because we're going

11
00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:40,880
Speaker 2: to bring in to the North Lawn in a moment

12
00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:42,879
Speaker 2: to hear from Tyler Kendall, and then we're going to

13
00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:45,239
Speaker 2: talk with Tom Keen, who's at World Headquarters in New York,

14
00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,120
Speaker 2: to explain to us just exactly what the rationale here

15
00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:51,519
Speaker 2: is on Wall Street after President Trump dropped the doozy

16
00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:52,479
Speaker 2: of the truth.

17
00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:54,120
Speaker 3: And by the way, he's on his way to Walter

18
00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:54,800
Speaker 3: Read right now.

19
00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:57,760
Speaker 2: He's got a doctor's appointment that has also prompted a

20
00:00:57,760 --> 00:00:59,800
Speaker 2: lot of questions here in Washington. And maybe it's no

21
00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:03,480
Speaker 2: under that there is in fact a public event in

22
00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:06,440
Speaker 2: the Oval Office with the press pool in the room

23
00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:08,520
Speaker 2: set for five pm Eastern. He's going to be making

24
00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:12,240
Speaker 2: an announcement. That's all, it says on the guidance, although

25
00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:14,319
Speaker 2: there has been some reporting here that it might involve

26
00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:21,440
Speaker 2: something to do with pharmaceuticals. So the truth post markets

27
00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:23,640
Speaker 2: look pretty good until this happened. They were higher in

28
00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:26,760
Speaker 2: the pre market session. Donald Trump, this is so long, James,

29
00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:29,240
Speaker 2: how many words was it? We try to keep account

30
00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:31,520
Speaker 2: on these, because I'm pretty sure this is a new record.

31
00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,560
Speaker 2: Some very strange things are happening in China, he writes.

32
00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:38,120
Speaker 2: They are becoming very hostile, sending letters to countries throughout

33
00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:40,880
Speaker 2: the world that they want to impose export controls on

34
00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:43,039
Speaker 2: each and every element of production having to do with

35
00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:45,959
Speaker 2: rare earths and virtually anything else they can think of. Look,

36
00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:47,640
Speaker 2: this is five hundred and four words. I'm not going

37
00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:50,800
Speaker 2: to read the whole thing to you. We scroll to

38
00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:56,560
Speaker 2: the lines that matter here. I will be forced, he says,

39
00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:58,920
Speaker 2: as president of the United States, to financially counter their move.

40
00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:01,080
Speaker 2: For every element they have been able to monopolize, we

41
00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:04,880
Speaker 2: have two. He goes on to threaten a massive increase

42
00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:08,120
Speaker 2: of tariffs on Chinese products, and then throws doubt on

43
00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:11,400
Speaker 2: his looming meeting with President she in two weeks at Apex.

44
00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:13,560
Speaker 2: He says, I was to meet with him, but now

45
00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:15,600
Speaker 2: there seems to be no reason to do so. Just

46
00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:19,200
Speaker 2: like that, the markets turned south, As Charlie just illustrated

47
00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:22,840
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Washington correspondent, Tyler Kendall's on the north lawn of

48
00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:25,399
Speaker 2: the White House right now, with all of this resonating

49
00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:28,160
Speaker 2: here in the Capitol and taking our attention away from

50
00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:30,400
Speaker 2: day ten of a government shutdown, Tyler, what was he

51
00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:31,760
Speaker 2: thinking when he posted that?

52
00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:34,760
Speaker 4: Well, Joe, I have to say, I actually was out

53
00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:37,840
Speaker 4: there for President Trump's departure, and he didn't come and

54
00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,639
Speaker 4: talk to US press. Instead, he got onto Marine one,

55
00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:43,200
Speaker 4: and then moments later, while he was in the air,

56
00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:45,680
Speaker 4: he posted this on a truth social Now you really

57
00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:49,200
Speaker 4: hit the headlines there. He accused China of being hostile

58
00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:51,560
Speaker 4: in his words, just for some context here, we have

59
00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:55,079
Speaker 4: seen Beijing move in recent days to unveil new export

60
00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:59,040
Speaker 4: curves on critical minerals and rare earths, expanding that list

61
00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:02,160
Speaker 4: of elements and technology that is on its control list.

62
00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:05,760
Speaker 4: They've also forced overseas exporters of items that even use

63
00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:09,760
Speaker 4: traces of certain rare earth source from China that they

64
00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:13,000
Speaker 4: will now need an individual export license as well. That

65
00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:15,760
Speaker 4: is also a new development in recent days. And we

66
00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:17,520
Speaker 4: have to keep in mind that China really does have

67
00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:20,280
Speaker 4: this grip on the global supply chain when it comes

68
00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:23,400
Speaker 4: to rare earth'sa accounted for about seventy percent of the

69
00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:26,560
Speaker 4: global supply last year alone. But of course this is

70
00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:29,320
Speaker 4: coming against this backdrop that we are just weeks away

71
00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:32,000
Speaker 4: from a potential face to face summit. Now there is

72
00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:34,840
Speaker 4: doubt over whether or not President Trump will meet with

73
00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:37,200
Speaker 4: Chinese President Jijingping. And of course they had a long

74
00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:40,360
Speaker 4: list of agenda items related to trade. But I'll point

75
00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:41,720
Speaker 4: you to one of them that we knew was going

76
00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:43,600
Speaker 4: to be at the top. According to the White House,

77
00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:48,000
Speaker 4: President Trump was going to address those soybean exports to China.

78
00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:50,640
Speaker 4: China is the top importer of US soybeans and has

79
00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:54,560
Speaker 4: not imported so far this harvest season. So there's a

80
00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:56,800
Speaker 4: lot of different threads here for us to pull on.

81
00:03:56,920 --> 00:04:00,400
Speaker 4: But that threat, Joe of massive tariffs, we have to

82
00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:02,840
Speaker 4: see what that is going to mean. As you well know,

83
00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:07,240
Speaker 4: there's currently that thirty percent baseline rate on China from

84
00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:10,280
Speaker 4: the US. When it comes to tarrors, twenty percent is

85
00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:12,960
Speaker 4: related to those ventanyl concerns. Ten percent is that so

86
00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,720
Speaker 4: called reciprocal tear freight. Some items c higher rates of

87
00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:18,440
Speaker 4: their subject to what's known as a Section three oh

88
00:04:18,520 --> 00:04:21,719
Speaker 4: one investigation. But Joe, we were up against a firm

89
00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:25,279
Speaker 4: deadline mid November. President Trump had signed that ninety day

90
00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:27,960
Speaker 4: truce and that is up in mid November. We're going

91
00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,320
Speaker 4: to have to see if there's an escalation before.

92
00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:31,000
Speaker 5: Or after then.

93
00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:34,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, that sounds like we might have one already. Tyler,

94
00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:36,360
Speaker 2: just quickly, what's going to happen After the doctor's visit.

95
00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:38,800
Speaker 2: We get a note from the doc on the president's condition.

96
00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:44,479
Speaker 4: We'll see they're calling this his semi annual physicians visit.

97
00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:47,400
Speaker 4: President Trump himself says that he is feeling great, and

98
00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:49,480
Speaker 4: he's also going to Walter reed to meet with the troops.

99
00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:51,240
Speaker 4: He alluded to this at the top. There has been

100
00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:54,680
Speaker 4: a scheduled five pm event with the White House Press Pool.

101
00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:56,880
Speaker 4: A White House official confirms to us here at Bloomberg News.

102
00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:59,560
Speaker 4: It will be related to pharmaceuticals. We'll see what that means.

103
00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:02,480
Speaker 4: We know that he had unbuilt that drug pricing initiative

104
00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:06,000
Speaker 4: alongside Peiser last month for what's known as most Favored

105
00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:09,320
Speaker 4: Nation rate status for certain Medicaid prescriptions. We'll see if

106
00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:10,520
Speaker 4: it mirrors something close to that.

107
00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:13,840
Speaker 2: All right, stay close, Tyler, we'll talk to you in

108
00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:15,400
Speaker 2: about an hour from the North Lawn.

109
00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:17,039
Speaker 3: Tyler Kendall reporting for Bloomberg.

110
00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:19,279
Speaker 2: We will be following the President's tracks as he gets

111
00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:21,359
Speaker 2: out of Walter Reed back to the White House for

112
00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:24,039
Speaker 2: the announcement that will carry for you, most likely on

113
00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:26,279
Speaker 2: the late edition of Balance of Power, assuming things stay

114
00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:27,760
Speaker 2: on time here. I have to admit, though it's not

115
00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:30,720
Speaker 2: helping pharma stocks steal a little pop and Jay and

116
00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:31,160
Speaker 2: Jay that'.

117
00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:32,160
Speaker 3: Said had been under it lately.

118
00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:34,400
Speaker 2: But Eli Lilly, which the President had been talking about

119
00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:39,480
Speaker 2: at the Peiser event, is actually lower. Financials are lower,

120
00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:43,919
Speaker 2: Vix is up back over twenty right now, Bitcoin is

121
00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:45,800
Speaker 2: down over two thousand dollars.

122
00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:49,880
Speaker 3: Mag seven down. This is not great.

123
00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:52,839
Speaker 2: And when I heard that we could spend some time

124
00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:56,120
Speaker 2: with TK, I was delighted because this should be surveillance

125
00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:56,680
Speaker 2: nap time.

126
00:05:56,720 --> 00:05:57,760
Speaker 3: I think he's live.

127
00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:00,560
Speaker 2: With us from World Headquarters, New York.

128
00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:01,600
Speaker 3: The Great Tom Keen.

129
00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:03,839
Speaker 2: Did the market just bump its head, Tom or do

130
00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:06,400
Speaker 2: we have a new Taco buying opportunity.

131
00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:09,000
Speaker 6: Well, that's what we're gonna have to see. Retail clearly

132
00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:12,039
Speaker 6: over the last number of these events has stepped in

133
00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:14,080
Speaker 6: and bought. I'm not saying they're buying right now. With

134
00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:17,279
Speaker 6: the Dell just printing five hundred points down to vics

135
00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:21,039
Speaker 6: out to twenty two on the initial shock, we're back

136
00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:24,080
Speaker 6: to twenty point four to eight. So somebody's on the

137
00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:27,120
Speaker 6: bid right now off of five hundred down. But I

138
00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:31,560
Speaker 6: would say, Joe, that retail has shown a Trump pattern

139
00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:35,920
Speaker 6: of stepping in and buying off of his excitable moments.

140
00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:39,599
Speaker 6: As you mentioned untruth as social let me paint you'll

141
00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:42,039
Speaker 6: quickly here. And you did a great job with the

142
00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:45,520
Speaker 6: cross correlations. But as you look at the Bloomberg screen,

143
00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:48,200
Speaker 6: and let's say for the public, for the balance of

144
00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:51,560
Speaker 6: power public, they don't know dollar yen from naki stocky.

145
00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:55,480
Speaker 6: You look at the doubt negative four hundred, SPX down

146
00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:59,400
Speaker 6: one point three percent, Nasdaq hit down one point eight percent.

147
00:06:59,880 --> 00:07:02,840
Speaker 6: I look also the way oil has pulled back see

148
00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:08,640
Speaker 6: American oil under sixty barrel fifty eight handle on nymex crude,

149
00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:12,440
Speaker 6: Global oil sixty to seventy eight has come down seven

150
00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:16,440
Speaker 6: dollars from a seventy level of a number of weeks ago.

151
00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:18,400
Speaker 6: And then another way to look at it, Joe is

152
00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,600
Speaker 6: like the pro way where we look at cross rates

153
00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:24,640
Speaker 6: and the first one I looked at was yen as

154
00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:28,240
Speaker 6: compared to you one. This is way inside at baseball.

155
00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:33,240
Speaker 6: But you see a three standard deviation jump move, that

156
00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:35,960
Speaker 6: big jump move, and you see that Joe in that

157
00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:41,120
Speaker 6: obscure currency pair which shows at tension on the Pacific

158
00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:43,520
Speaker 6: rim fascinating.

159
00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:46,600
Speaker 3: How would you describe this market before that post?

160
00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:49,920
Speaker 2: Because we hear about the froth every morning, the Wall

161
00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:50,440
Speaker 2: of worry.

162
00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:53,960
Speaker 3: The most hated rally was this thing due to tip over.

163
00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:56,360
Speaker 6: Right now, it's the closest a balance of power has

164
00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:59,720
Speaker 6: gotten to Bloomberg surveillance. The only difference is you have Tyler.

165
00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:03,400
Speaker 6: I can never get Tyler Kendall. I haven't seen Charlie

166
00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:06,520
Speaker 6: Pellett in like nine months since. It's great to be

167
00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:07,880
Speaker 6: here with people.

168
00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:08,600
Speaker 3: Like reverday early.

169
00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:11,880
Speaker 6: It's just way too early for Tyler Kendall. But the

170
00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:17,800
Speaker 6: point is here is it's a geopolitical linkage into our economics, finance,

171
00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:20,560
Speaker 6: and investment. And the President has done that let's get

172
00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:24,920
Speaker 6: lined up, Joe, and you're better at this than me. France, Japan,

173
00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:28,360
Speaker 6: the United Kingdom with their own set of worries, and

174
00:08:28,400 --> 00:08:31,840
Speaker 6: now we see a tariff redo with all the balance

175
00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:37,360
Speaker 6: of power tensions with Beijing, and they buffet off each other.

176
00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:42,320
Speaker 6: I'm looking now at Japan and China. Is the point there.

177
00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:45,240
Speaker 6: Here's the headline this morning, first headline. They looked like, Joe,

178
00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,600
Speaker 6: you weren't up yet, you were't up. Here's the first

179
00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:51,360
Speaker 6: headline I looked at today, folks, I'm trying to find

180
00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:54,240
Speaker 6: it out right now. It's so long ago, Joe, It's

181
00:08:54,280 --> 00:09:00,840
Speaker 6: fallen off the screen. Japan's decades old ruling coalition collapses,

182
00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:06,120
Speaker 6: jolting markets. And what the President doesn't doesn't understand in

183
00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:09,920
Speaker 6: his bilateral deal making focus is so when he does

184
00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:15,280
Speaker 6: something as you witnessed an hour ago, it affects Japan

185
00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:20,439
Speaker 6: and the idea of their coalition collapsing. They're all interdependent.

186
00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:22,199
Speaker 3: Fascinating.

187
00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:24,520
Speaker 2: This is a market that was pretending not to care

188
00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:27,920
Speaker 2: about tariffs lately. I keep hearing that the uncertainty had

189
00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:32,319
Speaker 2: passed us, Tom Keene, but a lot of folks were cautionary,

190
00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:35,400
Speaker 2: saying that we were whistling past the graveyard because China

191
00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:37,600
Speaker 2: was still a wild card. How did we get so

192
00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:41,160
Speaker 2: far over our skis with so little settled in the

193
00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:42,559
Speaker 2: world's second biggest day?

194
00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:44,240
Speaker 6: It ebbs and flows. One of the interviews of the

195
00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:46,640
Speaker 6: day for me Joe is KPMG out with the new

196
00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:50,480
Speaker 6: report on the tone of business across America, and their

197
00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:54,480
Speaker 6: lead word is uncertainty. And you see that uncertainty in

198
00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:58,200
Speaker 6: our politics, you see it within Global Wall Street. And

199
00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:02,800
Speaker 6: the answer is, we jump from the tomorrow from Alarian,

200
00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:07,559
Speaker 6: we jump from unknown to unknown. The President just assisted

201
00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:11,320
Speaker 6: us going to a new unknown, as Tyler said, looking

202
00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:13,079
Speaker 6: forward to Apec. Now what.

203
00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:15,440
Speaker 7: Now?

204
00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:17,280
Speaker 3: What is exactly right?

205
00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:17,719
Speaker 6: Now?

206
00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:21,040
Speaker 2: I get back to my first question. We've seen a

207
00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:23,120
Speaker 2: lot of posts like this from the president and he

208
00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:25,600
Speaker 2: does stuff like this right before a meeting. Are we

209
00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:28,520
Speaker 2: are we serious that he's walking away from China with

210
00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:31,480
Speaker 2: massive tariffs, knowing what happened after Liberation Day.

211
00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:34,600
Speaker 6: I would look to the Secretary of Treasury. The president

212
00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:36,920
Speaker 6: has many other challenges out there, and you know the

213
00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:39,640
Speaker 6: stuff that you report on and balance of power each

214
00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:42,720
Speaker 6: and every day. But no, I don't think anything's codified.

215
00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:45,680
Speaker 6: The history of this president is to is to shoot

216
00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:47,719
Speaker 6: first and think about it later. And that's what we're

217
00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:50,280
Speaker 6: going to see here, particularly if right now, what are

218
00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:52,880
Speaker 6: we my eye, Joe, my eyes are failing me. You'd

219
00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:54,920
Speaker 6: think I was a relief picture for the Red Sox.

220
00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:59,199
Speaker 6: Negative five point forty one. I mean, come, you give

221
00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:01,320
Speaker 6: me we're up one hundred earlier, so we got a

222
00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:04,520
Speaker 6: six hundred point swing from surveillance. You give me another

223
00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:06,760
Speaker 6: three hundred points down. And all of a sudden, the

224
00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:11,720
Speaker 6: Secretary Treasure is saying, mister President, about that tweet. That's

225
00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:13,200
Speaker 6: you know, maybe that's what we see.

226
00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:15,880
Speaker 2: And you're up a thousand points on Monday and the

227
00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:17,280
Speaker 2: taco trade exists.

228
00:11:17,520 --> 00:11:18,480
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's the.

229
00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:21,040
Speaker 3: Third anniversary of the bull on Sunday. Do you care?

230
00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:22,320
Speaker 7: Yeah?

231
00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:24,960
Speaker 6: I do. You're in Timor on today with Fidelity of

232
00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:29,280
Speaker 6: Boston and you're in Timor. Was just absolutely fabulous about

233
00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:33,360
Speaker 6: the duration of a bull market. He measures this bull market, Joe,

234
00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:40,200
Speaker 6: sixteen years out. We are sixteen years into a bull market,

235
00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:42,120
Speaker 6: which means is we're about due for the Red Sox

236
00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:44,520
Speaker 6: to win. I think, you know, sixteen years into a

237
00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:46,600
Speaker 6: bull market. Maybe next year's a time.

238
00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:51,040
Speaker 2: Well, Okay, second half of the year has been pretty

239
00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:53,959
Speaker 2: interesting here, and we're going into the seasonal period where

240
00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:56,440
Speaker 2: everybody loves stocks. Do we melt up into Christmas? Or

241
00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:57,920
Speaker 2: is this going to keep that from happening.

242
00:11:58,000 --> 00:11:59,599
Speaker 6: I'm not going to predict that, but I'm going to

243
00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:02,400
Speaker 6: say what I am focused on and what Team Surveillance

244
00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:05,960
Speaker 6: is focused on, is the earning season. Starting with JP Morgan,

245
00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:08,559
Speaker 6: Ont Tech and Joe, we're looking not only at the

246
00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:12,880
Speaker 6: quote unquote earnings, but we're looking up the income statement

247
00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:17,000
Speaker 6: to that revenue pop of a US economy that has

248
00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:20,199
Speaker 6: stunned with a sprightly nominal GDP.

249
00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:24,360
Speaker 2: What does it tell you when financial stocks look like

250
00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:28,480
Speaker 2: growth stocks? Does that due because of their valuations? Is

251
00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:30,920
Speaker 2: it the animal spirit that we're still ready for We're

252
00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:33,280
Speaker 2: going to have a big IPO pipeline or what is it?

253
00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:36,280
Speaker 6: You know? You know the answer. I'm hardwired to the

254
00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:38,840
Speaker 6: animal spirit. And I think if you talk too the

255
00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:43,720
Speaker 6: leaders of our financial institutions, they see a less regulated Washington.

256
00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:47,800
Speaker 6: They see a Washington really across all politics that is

257
00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:52,000
Speaker 6: not apologizing for going out and doing businesses and that

258
00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:56,160
Speaker 6: builds confidence. I mentioned Joe. Someone you know well, Michael Turner,

259
00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:59,400
Speaker 6: the former mayor of Dayton Ohio. And that's a kind

260
00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:02,840
Speaker 6: of republic can I'm looking at right now? Are these

261
00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:08,079
Speaker 6: centrist Republicans and Democrats? And how they bounce off shut down?

262
00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:11,679
Speaker 6: Why wait, Charlie, why is Joe Matthew working? There's a shutdown?

263
00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:15,760
Speaker 8: You're here, let me let me let me send that

264
00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:16,679
Speaker 8: over and suggest.

265
00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:19,360
Speaker 3: Why is Michael McKee working? There's a shutdown with no

266
00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:22,240
Speaker 3: government data? There's no data to talk about.

267
00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:25,959
Speaker 6: Great. I love your music. Your music's more musical than

268
00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,240
Speaker 6: my music as well. I don't know.

269
00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:30,360
Speaker 2: You've got that hard hitting morning stuff. Will this ever

270
00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:31,880
Speaker 2: happened again? Or is this a one off?

271
00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:33,640
Speaker 6: No, it's not a one off. This is the president

272
00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:35,760
Speaker 6: of the United States America knows whatever.

273
00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:39,560
Speaker 3: Where I mean Tom Keene on Balanceable, Oh me, well

274
00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:40,560
Speaker 3: you got lucky.

275
00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:42,800
Speaker 6: Your agent ran into my agent and there were you know.

276
00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:44,880
Speaker 2: Yes, this this and you must have been having lunch

277
00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:47,120
Speaker 2: in the neighborhood. He's at the Monkey bar or something.

278
00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:49,720
Speaker 2: Thank you, Tom. It's great to see him have a

279
00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:50,079
Speaker 2: great week.

280
00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:53,360
Speaker 6: He's a man of impeccable taste.

281
00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:58,400
Speaker 7: I followed the TV that plays Phil Silvers.

282
00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:00,400
Speaker 6: Hen I was under the TV.

283
00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:03,920
Speaker 2: We got to do this, the three of us, I

284
00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:05,880
Speaker 2: mean my god. Try just stay right where you are,

285
00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:08,200
Speaker 2: stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much

286
00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:09,400
Speaker 2: more coming up after this.

287
00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:18,280
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

288
00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:21,360
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

289
00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:25,200
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen

290
00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:28,360
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

291
00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:29,800
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

292
00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:32,520
Speaker 3: What is it about truth Social at noon?

293
00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:35,360
Speaker 2: Well, it was right before noon we got the Truth

294
00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:40,280
Speaker 2: Social from the President that sent the markets south, promising

295
00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:44,400
Speaker 2: massive tariffs against China. We thought we had the new

296
00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:46,720
Speaker 2: lead story of the day, right, all the scripts go

297
00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:49,800
Speaker 2: out the window, were coming in, crashing in hot off

298
00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:51,920
Speaker 2: the top rope at noon with the news and as

299
00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:55,640
Speaker 2: soon as we start talking about that, the announcement from

300
00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:59,880
Speaker 2: RUSS voltlands when the Budget director took to Twitter to

301
00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:06,920
Speaker 2: right very simply that the RIfS have begun reductions in force.

302
00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:10,680
Speaker 2: He could just call them layoffs, because that's what they are.

303
00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:11,720
Speaker 9: Now.

304
00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:12,960
Speaker 3: We don't have numbers for you.

305
00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:15,240
Speaker 2: I will tell you as a punch bowl report, referring

306
00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:19,520
Speaker 2: to them as substantial but will not hit every government agency.

307
00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:21,880
Speaker 3: What's Wall Street going to think about this?

308
00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:22,080
Speaker 10: Now?

309
00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:25,000
Speaker 2: Combined so you've got massive layoffs coming, and we just

310
00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:28,080
Speaker 2: learned today that BLS is going to scrape together a

311
00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:30,240
Speaker 2: CPI report for later in the month, but we still

312
00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:32,160
Speaker 2: don't know what the heck the jobs numbers look like.

313
00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:36,680
Speaker 2: And maybe suddenly, as the layoffs hit on the same

314
00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:40,280
Speaker 2: day that federal workers start going without their paychecks, maybe

315
00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:43,040
Speaker 2: suddenly Wall Street is going to be caring a little

316
00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:45,400
Speaker 2: bit about the shutdown that it has been bored by.

317
00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:49,640
Speaker 2: So far, the Dow's down five hundred, Nasdag's down five hundred.

318
00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:53,160
Speaker 2: So let's get into it with the panel. I'm delighted

319
00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:54,800
Speaker 2: to tell you they're both with us, and we need

320
00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:59,520
Speaker 2: them now. Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Schanzano and Rick Davis.

321
00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:02,800
Speaker 2: Genie is democratic analyst and democracy visiting fellow at Harvard

322
00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:06,000
Speaker 2: Kennedy School's Ash Center. Rick our republican strategist and partner

323
00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:07,760
Speaker 2: at Stone Court Capital. Guys are going to be in

324
00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:09,800
Speaker 2: for a long one because I know you're back on

325
00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,520
Speaker 2: the late edition of Balance of Power, and just as

326
00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:15,200
Speaker 2: everybody was taking a bite of their sandwich here in Washington, Rick,

327
00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:17,440
Speaker 2: the whole world changed with truth social and now this

328
00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:21,080
Speaker 2: word from Russ vote is the President trying to change

329
00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:21,800
Speaker 2: the topic here.

330
00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:23,440
Speaker 3: What do you make of the timing on these two

331
00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:24,359
Speaker 3: hitting today.

332
00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:29,240
Speaker 11: You know, it's a little bit of coincidence, I think

333
00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:33,320
Speaker 11: in some cases. I think the China reaction obviously was

334
00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:37,040
Speaker 11: spurred by something that the President got briefed on yesterday,

335
00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:45,440
Speaker 11: and he was reacting to it, clearly a degrading of

336
00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:50,560
Speaker 11: the US China relationship before the meetings in South Korea. Obviously,

337
00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:52,720
Speaker 11: we'll wait and see whether they or not. There is

338
00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:55,640
Speaker 11: actually going to be a ch meeting with the President,

339
00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:59,440
Speaker 11: but doesn't sound like it. But things like this Ross

340
00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:04,919
Speaker 11: vote that's obviously planned. That's a Friday afternoon massacre. We

341
00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:06,680
Speaker 11: don't know what the extent of it is or how

342
00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:10,320
Speaker 11: it's going to actually unfold, But the reality is they've

343
00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:13,840
Speaker 11: been forecasting this for some time. And I think the

344
00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:15,960
Speaker 11: idea that the President could be leaving town to go

345
00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:19,160
Speaker 11: to the Middle East, you know, drop a bomb while

346
00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:20,800
Speaker 11: he's out of town so he didn't have to answer

347
00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:22,920
Speaker 11: any questions about it. I mean, that's sort of standard

348
00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:24,159
Speaker 11: operating procedure.

349
00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:24,440
Speaker 6: At the White House.

350
00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:27,800
Speaker 3: Boy, Okay, we just got another one, Jeanie.

351
00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:32,440
Speaker 2: The Associated press reporting layoffs will be in the thousands.

352
00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:35,560
Speaker 2: That could be a lot. I don't know exactly what

353
00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:40,000
Speaker 2: that means. But substantial again we see this word that

354
00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:44,000
Speaker 2: was used by punch Bowl now on ap Substantial firings

355
00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:47,600
Speaker 2: of federal workers have started as White House exerts shut

356
00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:51,320
Speaker 2: down leverage. Bloomberg News reporting federal layoffs will be in

357
00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:54,199
Speaker 2: the thousands, according to a White House official that we

358
00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:56,399
Speaker 2: have spoken with directly. Now I can tell you that

359
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:59,040
Speaker 2: that is a trustworthy headline from Bloomberg.

360
00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:00,080
Speaker 3: Genie, how bad could.

361
00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:02,800
Speaker 12: Very bad?

362
00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:05,600
Speaker 9: And you know they are using the shutdown as an

363
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:08,760
Speaker 9: excuse to do what they have been doing prior to.

364
00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:12,280
Speaker 12: The shutdown, which is trying to cut the federal workforce.

365
00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:17,280
Speaker 9: It is bad politics for the White House and for Republicans,

366
00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:20,560
Speaker 9: and I suspect we are going to hear more. Marjorie

367
00:18:20,560 --> 00:18:23,960
Speaker 9: Taylor Green's she's come out, of course on the issue

368
00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:28,000
Speaker 9: of healthcare subsidies. But we're talking thousands and thousands of

369
00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:31,320
Speaker 9: layoffs if these reports are to be believed, many of

370
00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:34,480
Speaker 9: which will be in districts and states where you have

371
00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:38,679
Speaker 9: congressmen and women who are on the Republican side. So

372
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:42,560
Speaker 9: it is devastating politics for Republicans, and you.

373
00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:43,439
Speaker 12: Know it is coming.

374
00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:46,800
Speaker 9: At the same time that, as Rick just mentioned, the

375
00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:50,720
Speaker 9: President is leaving the country. It's understandable, Middle East peace,

376
00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:54,359
Speaker 9: this piece deal very important, but he's leaving the country

377
00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:57,480
Speaker 9: with the government shut down. And oh, by the way,

378
00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:00,760
Speaker 9: Scott Bessen and the administration have just decided that while

379
00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:04,480
Speaker 9: we're shut down, twenty billion dollars of our tax money

380
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:08,120
Speaker 9: should go to Argentina. And that is something that Democrats

381
00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:11,640
Speaker 9: in the Senate had been talking about because what happened

382
00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:15,520
Speaker 9: to make America great and keep things at home? So

383
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 9: I feel like the White House has gotten a little

384
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 9: bit off its rails politically and out of line with

385
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:25,800
Speaker 9: its own populist message and is listening to the folks

386
00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:29,200
Speaker 9: like russ Vote and Project twenty twenty five, folks who

387
00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:32,040
Speaker 9: have long wanted to take steps like they're doing now

388
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:34,720
Speaker 9: with the doze cuts.

389
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,159
Speaker 2: Well with what we do know about this and what

390
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:39,199
Speaker 2: we've heard from russ Vote, what was written in Project

391
00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:42,280
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five, Rick, Should we assume that furloughed workers

392
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,720
Speaker 2: being laid off are permanently no longer part of the

393
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:46,560
Speaker 2: federal workforce.

394
00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:47,440
Speaker 3: They're not coming back.

395
00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:51,639
Speaker 5: Yeah, a furlough is different than a riff.

396
00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:53,480
Speaker 3: What they're talking about today, all.

397
00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:57,960
Speaker 11: These seven hundred and fifty thousand government workers are furloughed,

398
00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:01,840
Speaker 11: meaning they're not collecting a paycheck and not working, but

399
00:20:02,480 --> 00:20:04,159
Speaker 11: they expect to come back to their jobs.

400
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:04,760
Speaker 10: Uh.

401
00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:10,040
Speaker 11: These riffs reduction force are permanent by definition. Uh And

402
00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:14,040
Speaker 11: and so those people that are identified in these will

403
00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:19,200
Speaker 11: be in essence losing their job today. Now, there are

404
00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:22,880
Speaker 11: all kinds of legal remedies. This is not the typical

405
00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:26,359
Speaker 11: reduction in force. There are a lot of procedures that

406
00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:28,520
Speaker 11: are in place. Maybe this is what they've been doing

407
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 11: for the last two weeks of the shutdown, but the

408
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:34,480
Speaker 11: reality is we saw these kinds of reductions in force

409
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 11: last time when Doge did them, and a lot of

410
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 11: those people wind up getting their jobs back. So, you know,

411
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,040
Speaker 11: it's kind of a new spin on the taco trade, right.

412
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:46,320
Speaker 11: I mean, like the administration doing something they think it's

413
00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:48,840
Speaker 11: politically salient. They think they're going to you know, like

414
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,720
Speaker 11: attack the government which is the deep state, and we're

415
00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:53,920
Speaker 11: going to fire all these people. Then they're going to

416
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:55,879
Speaker 11: realize that they got stuff they got to do, and

417
00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 11: they got to you know, go back to them and say, hey, look,

418
00:20:57,760 --> 00:20:59,560
Speaker 11: we need you to come back I mean, it's not

419
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:03,399
Speaker 11: exactly the way to build morale and productivity within the

420
00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 11: government workforce.

421
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 3: Also deja vu.

422
00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 2: I'll tell you what, Genie, the headlines are just crashing

423
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 2: in here. This has been a heck of an hour.

424
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 3: Now.

425
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:14,119
Speaker 2: Axios is reporting that we have some detail on the

426
00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 2: president's travel plans. I'll remind you he's up at Walter

427
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 2: Reed for a doctor's appointment right now. We don't know

428
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:22,200
Speaker 2: if he's under anesthesia. We don't really know anything about

429
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:25,199
Speaker 2: what's been referred to as a semi annual checkup. We

430
00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:28,240
Speaker 2: thought that was annual until now. Donald Trump to arrive

431
00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:32,160
Speaker 2: in Israel Monday morning. According to Axios, he will travel

432
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:37,440
Speaker 2: to Egypt Monday afternoon. Genie, there's also reporting that while

433
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 2: he is in the region, he's going to hold a

434
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:44,960
Speaker 2: summit of sorts. While he's in Egypt, I'll back up

435
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,199
Speaker 2: a little bit and remind everybody that there is a

436
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:49,680
Speaker 2: public event in the Oval Office schedule for five pm

437
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:53,439
Speaker 2: Eastern time. It's build on the White House guidance, simply

438
00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 2: as an announcement. We have since learned that that will

439
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,840
Speaker 2: involve pharmaceuticals, and CBS News is now saying that as

440
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:04,640
Speaker 2: Zeneca is the pick for a most favored nation pricing

441
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,879
Speaker 2: deal like we saw with Pfizer. I don't know what

442
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:09,439
Speaker 2: the second half of this day is going to be

443
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:11,440
Speaker 2: like here, Genie, but I feel like the President is

444
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:12,119
Speaker 2: going to have a heck of.

445
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 3: A lot to talk about. Will he need to quantify

446
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:14,879
Speaker 3: these layoffs tonight?

447
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 12: Key very well, strap in Joe. It's going to be

448
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:19,760
Speaker 12: a ride.

449
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 10: Yeah.

450
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:23,200
Speaker 12: Are you going forward? Yeah?

451
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:27,520
Speaker 9: Always on Friday's lately, Yeah. After Zeneca looks like it's

452
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 9: going to be joining Pfizer.

453
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 12: This has been great pr for Pfizer.

454
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 9: It'll probably be great pr for a Resenica, not so

455
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:35,120
Speaker 9: great for consumers.

456
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 12: But of course the President is going to.

457
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:39,680
Speaker 9: Have so many other things on his plate, and if

458
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 9: he allows for questions, and he usually does do his credit,

459
00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:45,680
Speaker 9: he will likely get a lot of questions on these

460
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:48,560
Speaker 9: mass layoffs, and of course on the big news out

461
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:52,119
Speaker 9: of the Middle East. Also, as you mentioned, his health,

462
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 9: so so much going.

463
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 12: On like that.

464
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 9: You know, it's really important, even though the government is

465
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 9: shut down, that the present goes over to the Middle East,

466
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 9: because the White House is going to have to keep

467
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 9: pressure on both Israel and Tamas in order to get

468
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:12,480
Speaker 9: from a phase one, which looks like it's I shouldn't

469
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 9: say a done deal, but everybody says cautiously optimistic. But

470
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:17,919
Speaker 9: the Phase two and the phase three are going to

471
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 9: be the much harder parts of this. We've even seen

472
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:23,960
Speaker 9: the Israeli members of the Israeli Cabinet on the far

473
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 9: right do not describe this as a peace deal or

474
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 9: an end of the war. They're describing it as a

475
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 9: stop in the hostilities, and that suggests that they may

476
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:40,159
Speaker 9: want to resume that once the hostages are back, and

477
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,680
Speaker 9: of course AMAS on their side, does not want to disarm,

478
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 9: and so a lot to do to get from phase

479
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,639
Speaker 9: one to two. And that's why it's really important that

480
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:50,640
Speaker 9: the president go over there, talk to our Arab allies,

481
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:52,920
Speaker 9: and of course keep the pressure on both of these

482
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,879
Speaker 9: sides to move this, because he's been through this before.

483
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 9: We had this in January and we never got to

484
00:23:58,560 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 9: the phase two in January?

485
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 2: Rick, were the layoffs meant to coincide with the day

486
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,920
Speaker 2: that federal workers stopped getting paid? And do you think

487
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:09,879
Speaker 2: this would have been announced if he won the Nobel

488
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:10,680
Speaker 2: Peace Prize?

489
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:14,880
Speaker 3: A lot to unpack.

490
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 11: There, No, I don't think it's related to the payment.

491
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:24,240
Speaker 11: Remember to most government employees are on a direct deposit

492
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 11: that means they get their money three days earlier than this,

493
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 11: So mostly it's a bit of a fantasy on these

494
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 11: like dates of the payment of people's salaries. That being said,

495
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:42,920
Speaker 11: I mean, like, you know, he's not happy with the

496
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 11: decision by the Nobel Committee and by the way, terrific selection.

497
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 11: Maria Machado's a patriot, you know, promoting democracy in venezuela

498
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 11: very dangerous business.

499
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:54,479
Speaker 7: She lives in hiding.

500
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:57,400
Speaker 6: Yeah, somebody you would expect.

501
00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,359
Speaker 11: But at the end of the day, I think he

502
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 11: felt he earned and maybe next year's prize will.

503
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 6: Go to him.

504
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 11: Who knows, But yeah, I mean I would think that

505
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:10,119
Speaker 11: maybe more the reaction that he had to China changing

506
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 11: eric sport requirements for Rare Earth maybe have a little

507
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:16,800
Speaker 11: extra push in their because he's a little glumpy about

508
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 11: that book.

509
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 2: Well, you did mention Middle East piece in that very

510
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 2: long missive genie. I've got news for you here. Donald

511
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:26,919
Speaker 2: Trump may not be the man you thought he was.

512
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 2: He called Maria Machado to congratulate her for her Nobel

513
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 2: Peace Prize. According to people familiar with the matter. As

514
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:36,880
Speaker 2: I read here in the copy, you know, I've got

515
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:39,679
Speaker 2: to finish the line here. Despite speculation he would be

516
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:43,959
Speaker 2: indignant at not receiving the award himself. What does that

517
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 2: tell you about the President?

518
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 9: I think it tells me a little less about the

519
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 9: President than about Machado.

520
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:53,880
Speaker 12: You know, I know Rick was singing her praises.

521
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:57,400
Speaker 9: There's a lot of people who are not singing her praises.

522
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 9: She is described as a right wing somebody who has

523
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 9: sided with people like the leader in Argentina, who is

524
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 9: a close ally of Donald Trump. This is a big

525
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 9: win for somebody like Marco Rubio, and of course she

526
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,639
Speaker 9: has been on the side of the United States in

527
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:18,959
Speaker 9: it's a battle so far, and I'm not saying war battle,

528
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 9: but battle on the open seas against Venezuela. So I'm

529
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,160
Speaker 9: not surprised, I thought, and I think I've heard many

530
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 9: people describe this as the Nobel Peace Prize, trying to

531
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 9: have it both ways.

532
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:33,080
Speaker 12: They couldn't have possibly voted for Trump.

533
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:36,400
Speaker 9: This deal wasn't signed until laughter voting, but they did

534
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:40,280
Speaker 9: go with somebody that clearly his administration support.

535
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,919
Speaker 2: The Reacting to breaking news today, that's just the vibe

536
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:46,640
Speaker 2: here in Washington, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzo. Bloomberg Politics

537
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 2: contributors will be back on the late edition of Balance

538
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,360
Speaker 2: of Power. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll

539
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:53,919
Speaker 2: have much more coming up after this.

540
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcasts. Catch

541
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,879
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

542
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 1: Apple Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

543
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

544
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

545
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,879
Speaker 2: We haven't even talked about the controversy over the Super

546
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 2: Bowl halftime show. It's a pleasure to go to California

547
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,879
Speaker 2: to speak with Brad Sherman, and I'm sure that the

548
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 2: congressman has some thoughts about the layoffs that have just

549
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:32,879
Speaker 2: been announced. The Democrat representing California's thirty second district Congress

550
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:35,120
Speaker 2: from Brad Sherman, welcome back to Bloomberg.

551
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 3: TV and Radio. Russ Vote says the riffs have begun.

552
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,959
Speaker 2: Bloomberg News is reporting that they are in the thousands.

553
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 2: Are you hearing anything more specific? And what will this

554
00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:49,080
Speaker 2: do to negotiations if they ever happen or the standoff

555
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 2: in this government shutdown?

556
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 7: Look there's no reason to do rifts now.

557
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 10: They could have done them two months ago, they could

558
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 10: do them two months from now. They're doing them as

559
00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 10: an act of vandalism against the federal government, as if

560
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:11,359
Speaker 10: that will take revenge on the Democratic Party for not

561
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:15,159
Speaker 10: completely seating all power. I mean, if it was up

562
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 10: to Trump, there wouldn't be a Congress. So few dictators

563
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 10: want a parliament messing up their lives, except a North

564
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:26,640
Speaker 10: Korea style to gather and cheer, And in fact, that's

565
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 10: what Speaker Johnson has agreed to.

566
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 7: He is sent to Congress home. Not only are we

567
00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 7: not opening up.

568
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 10: The government, we're not doing any of the other business

569
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:36,399
Speaker 10: we're supposed to be doing.

570
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 7: How much of it that we're very very far behind?

571
00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 10: And do it?

572
00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 13: Congressman, I want to ask you, given your years in Congress,

573
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 13: decades watching these sorts of spats go on, where you

574
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 13: put this into context. It certainly feels like this is

575
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 13: an escalated tensions on the.

576
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 12: Hill right now.

577
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 13: I'm reminded of your late colleague, Senator John McCain joking

578
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 13: that you know, if we try real hard, we'll get

579
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:04,479
Speaker 13: into the single digits on congressional approval in rough times.

580
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 8: Then two decades ago. Where does this fall? Are we

581
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 8: at a new low in decorum on the hill?

582
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 10: We're as low as we've been since the eighteen sixties,

583
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 10: and I wasn't around then. You can compare this to

584
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 10: other shutdowns. But the level of division in the country,

585
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 10: and you Donald Trump's personality and personal approaches throwing kerosene

586
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 10: on the fire.

587
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 2: Well, you know, we saw what happened with Mike Lawler

588
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 2: getting into a shouting match with the Democratic leader. We

589
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 2: saw Democratic senators standing in front of the Speaker's office

590
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:47,239
Speaker 2: making noise about Jeffrey Epstein. I don't know if if

591
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 2: you guys are going to start caning each other like

592
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 2: we used to in the old days. But Congressman, to

593
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 2: Michelle's point, you've been up on the hill for a minute,

594
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 2: how do you get around this? Or should we assume

595
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 2: that when the cameras turn off, you're having a beer

596
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:03,400
Speaker 2: with your Republican colleagues.

597
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 7: We're not out drinking.

598
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 10: We get along reasonably well, perhaps as well as you

599
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 10: get along with the people where you work. But we

600
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 10: are responding to our constituents who are divided, and so

601
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 10: many Republicans are not only loyal to their constituents.

602
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 7: They're loyal to.

603
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 10: The president whatever he says, and not only technically but emotionally,

604
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 10: that's what they feel and it's divided. Does that mean

605
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 10: that if I'm walking into the floor of the House

606
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:39,959
Speaker 10: that the Republicans sticking out is like to trip me

607
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 10: as I fall on my face.

608
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:42,600
Speaker 7: No, that's not happening.

609
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 13: Well, Congressman, you mentioned Trump's approach is pouring kerosene on

610
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 13: the fire. I want to ask you about something else

611
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 13: today that's kind of in your lane, in the foreign

612
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 13: affairs lane, his true social message on China. How do

613
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 13: you think this changes the game in the overall US

614
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 13: China negotiations? How worried are you about not getting some

615
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 13: sort of deal with China? And what are your constituent sying?

616
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 7: Well, we haven't responded to this tweet.

617
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 10: It's so strange because for so many years I was

618
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 10: here and diplomacy was handled carefully.

619
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 7: And now it's an emotional.

620
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 10: Tirade sometimes at three in the morning, directly from the president.

621
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 10: That's not the way to conduct foreign policy. It's not

622
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 10: the way any other president has conducted foreign policy. And

623
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 10: we see China uses its control over rare earth elements

624
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 10: and America has done nothing over the last several years

625
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 10: to weaken that control. We should have strategic reserves of

626
00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 10: all those rare earth elements, and we should have alternative supply.

627
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 10: It is not true that all of the war for

628
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 10: those elements is in China. It's just they're the ones

629
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:04,480
Speaker 10: who have created the big industrial apparatus necessary to extract

630
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:08,360
Speaker 10: and refine them. That could be done elsewhere. But that's

631
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 10: just one of the many things that Congress should have

632
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 10: been focused on and should be focused on today.

633
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:16,400
Speaker 3: Except well, so here we are on here in the Rabia.

634
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 7: Building, and there are no Republicans.

635
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 3: I said, you're in California. Forgive me.

636
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 2: By the way, it matters right now when members are

637
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 2: here in Washington. When's everybody else coming back? The Senate

638
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 2: apparently is going to be here next week now. But

639
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 2: the vibe we're getting from any lawmaker d or r

640
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 2: a congressman is that this will be protracted.

641
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 3: We're nowhere near an off ramp.

642
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 2: Even as John Thunes suggests privately that he may offer

643
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 2: Democrats an up or down vote on extending Obamacare subsidies,

644
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:48,920
Speaker 2: where are we what.

645
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 3: Inning are we in in this shutdown?

646
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 12: Well?

647
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 10: And offering a vote if you know you're going to

648
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 10: lose is symbolic and perhaps nice, but not all that important.

649
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 7: This is going to last a long time.

650
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 10: Both sides are digging in the base of each party.

651
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 10: Isn't saying how do you put this together? They're saying,

652
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:14,240
Speaker 10: stand up for our position. And I think as long

653
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 10: as the focus is on healthcare, and that is where

654
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,959
Speaker 10: we have put the focus, that the people will be

655
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 10: with us.

656
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 7: What should happen, of course, is a negotiation.

657
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 10: We may not get everything we want on healthcare, but

658
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:31,719
Speaker 10: the current position of the Republicans is give us what

659
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:35,440
Speaker 10: we want and we'll talk to you about whether we

660
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 10: do anything that you want. That's not the way to

661
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 10: treat a party that got forty nine percent of the vote.

662
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 10: And keep in mind, Republicans wouldn't talk to us in January, February, March, April, May, June, etc.

663
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 10: About this healthcare cliff that we're about to fall over,

664
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 10: where twenty two million people will see their premiums more

665
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 10: than double, and the letters are going out now people

666
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 10: have to decide whether to sign up for healthcare coverage

667
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 10: and as far as they know it's at double the premium,

668
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 10: they can't.

669
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 7: Afford that.

670
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 13: Well, Congressman, there' certainly no shortage of big stories to

671
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:12,320
Speaker 13: ask you about today, but we'd be remiss if we

672
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 13: didn't ask you about the Middle East and the President's

673
00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:18,440
Speaker 13: forthcoming trip to the region. How are you feeling about

674
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:21,719
Speaker 13: this tentative peace deal? Are the reasons to be optimistic?

675
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 13: Bright signs here? Even though it feels like we've kind

676
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 13: of been close to this before only to see a setback.

677
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 10: Opeful optimistic may be too strong a word, but if

678
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 10: the hostages are released and Hamas is no longer in

679
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:45,279
Speaker 10: control of Gaza, then we can move forward. And it

680
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 10: looks like that's what the settlement calls for. We'll see

681
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:55,800
Speaker 10: whether the top, whether Hamas disarms, and whether their leadership

682
00:34:55,840 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 10: departs the region. But phase one is the he's lease

683
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 10: of the hostages, and that day can't come too soon.

684
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 2: Just got about a minute left, Congressman. If this does hold,

685
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 2: should Donald Trump get the Nobel Peace Prize?

686
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 3: He didn't make it today.

687
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 10: Look, you'd have to evaluate Donald Trump's actions on the

688
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 10: world stage in total, and I don't think they're quite

689
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 10: Nobel Prize winning material. But look, Hamas has been pushed

690
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:43,960
Speaker 10: into a small corner of Gaza. They realize that Israel

691
00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 10: can take that corner as well. And I think that

692
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 10: it's not so much what the President has said. The

693
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,359
Speaker 10: deal that he has offered is very similar to what

694
00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:00,840
Speaker 10: the Israeli negotiating position has been all along. Free the

695
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:04,319
Speaker 10: hostages and free the people of Gaza, two million of

696
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 10: them from oppression from Hamas.

697
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 2: No, he's on his way, be there on Monday, apparently, Congressman.

698
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 2: Great to have you back, Brad Sherman, Democrat from California.

699
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:14,400
Speaker 3: Thank you.

700
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 2: Markets are extending losses now, the S and P down

701
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:20,720
Speaker 2: two percent. This is Bloomberg. Stay with us on Balance

702
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:22,920
Speaker 2: of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

703
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch

704
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:34,200
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

705
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You

706
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:40,759
Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

707
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 1: New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

708
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 2: Here with Michelle jam Risco and Washington were spinning a

709
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:51,560
Speaker 2: few plates today because the headlines keep popping on the terminal.

710
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:54,719
Speaker 2: We started with the truth post about China sent the

711
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:57,719
Speaker 2: markets south. As you just heard from Charlie Pellett. Then

712
00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:00,799
Speaker 2: russ Folk shows up just in time with the word

713
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 2: that the riffs have begun. He says, so on Twitter,

714
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:06,719
Speaker 2: we've been doing some reporting to suggest that it will

715
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:09,320
Speaker 2: be in the thousands. We're also seeing now I believe

716
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:12,520
Speaker 2: it was punch Bowl. Yeah, Pentagon expected to be spared

717
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 2: from the layoffs.

718
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:14,200
Speaker 3: So this is not every.

719
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 8: Agency I was going to say. I can't even remember

720
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:17,840
Speaker 8: if that's where we started with China or all of

721
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:19,440
Speaker 8: this has just kind of meshed together.

722
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 13: Of course, we've seen the markets react to both things,

723
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:25,960
Speaker 13: so it's interesting to follow today's events as they unfold.

724
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:26,319
Speaker 3: For sure.

725
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:28,720
Speaker 2: It also happens to be day ten of the government shutdown,

726
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 2: which in any other world would have been our top story,

727
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:33,600
Speaker 2: with people crying as they can't get into the zoo,

728
00:37:33,600 --> 00:37:34,680
Speaker 2: although the zoo's still open.

729
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:36,400
Speaker 3: I think at this point I have to check on that.

730
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 2: It was at the Smithsonia last weekend, thinking it might

731
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 2: be my last chance for a minute.

732
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:42,759
Speaker 3: All I know is about a month ago. It might

733
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:43,839
Speaker 3: have been a little bit more than that.

734
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:48,799
Speaker 2: Patrick McHenry said in this studio that October is going

735
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 2: to be a doozy. He might have used a different

736
00:37:51,080 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 2: word than that, but he's with us now. Bloomberg Politics contributor,

737
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 2: former Republican Congressman, Chair of the House Financial Services Committee,

738
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 2: Speaker pro tem in American history, Patrick mckenry, Great to

739
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 2: see you. It wasn't doozy. It was off camera and

740
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:07,759
Speaker 2: it was more colorful language. I thought that was right. Yes,

741
00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:09,800
Speaker 2: therefore I could have sent anything and they would have

742
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 2: believed me. But it's coming true. When you see Mike

743
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 2: Lawler standing in front of hockeing Jeffrey's office with a

744
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:16,759
Speaker 2: piece of paper to get into a shouting match for

745
00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:19,560
Speaker 2: the benefit of the cameras, tells us we are aware.

746
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:24,320
Speaker 5: Not yet at the negotiating table, the performative. It's the

747
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 5: former piece. The only thing that brings policymakers to some

748
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 5: resolutionist pain and the announcement it's not good will. Everybody's like, oh,

749
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:36,799
Speaker 5: that everybody's going to come together with their disagreements and

750
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 5: it's going to be good will that gets out of

751
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:40,800
Speaker 5: the shutdown. It never is that it is the party

752
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:43,720
Speaker 5: that instigated. It has to take the pain in order

753
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:45,919
Speaker 5: for us to get out of it. That's where we are.

754
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:49,399
Speaker 5: Usually it's been Republicans. This has been a much more

755
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:53,680
Speaker 5: chill shutdown in terms of what's happening here in DC,

756
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 5: like the rhetoric here in DC. And it's because the

757
00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:01,839
Speaker 5: Democratic Party is traditionally the defenders of employees and the

758
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:06,360
Speaker 5: federal government and federal regulatory powers. They're the ones that

759
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:08,760
Speaker 5: have instigated the shutdown in the name of a health

760
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 5: care battle or health care policy. But they've inciated it,

761
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:15,360
Speaker 5: they've been very muted about the effects of the loss

762
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:18,400
Speaker 5: of government services. They're usually the ones that are first

763
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:22,480
Speaker 5: the press, and now you have Republicans who are trictionally

764
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 5: believe that we need to spare like I'm sorry, pear

765
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 5: down the federal government, not spare anyone in the federal government.

766
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 5: They're the ones that are saying, well, look, we need

767
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:34,680
Speaker 5: to try to make this work for as long as

768
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:37,280
Speaker 5: we can. So you see, some agencies are still open

769
00:39:37,320 --> 00:39:41,839
Speaker 5: because they have account balances. OMB has these massive set

770
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 5: of powers during government shutdown, which enables OMB director in

771
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 5: this case, for US vote to take very specific action

772
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:56,360
Speaker 5: individual by individual agencies and account levels to either continue

773
00:39:56,440 --> 00:40:00,720
Speaker 5: normative services or in this case have layoffs.

774
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:03,320
Speaker 13: So, mister Chairman, we had a House Speaker Mike Johnson,

775
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:05,799
Speaker 13: on the other night, and Joe, try as he might,

776
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 13: did not help resolve the shutdown that evening. But one

777
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 13: thing he did ask the speaker was why not just

778
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 13: schedule a vote as the Democrats have been asking for

779
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:19,720
Speaker 13: and the shutdown that's obviously not in his political will

780
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 13: to do. He was saying, it was not in his

781
00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:23,920
Speaker 13: process capability to do.

782
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:26,240
Speaker 8: How do you impact that? Take us behind the scenes?

783
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:28,359
Speaker 8: Could he do that? And can be true?

784
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:33,160
Speaker 5: All two things can be true at once, and this case,

785
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:37,160
Speaker 5: Mike can be correct and Joe can be correct. So yes,

786
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:41,719
Speaker 5: Washington right, he wins. So what the Speaker has said

787
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:45,760
Speaker 5: is we've passed a continued resolution that is a normal

788
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 5: act in DC. Unfortunately, since the fifty two years we've

789
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 5: had this budget process, we've failed most years to follow

790
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:56,880
Speaker 5: the budget process in the law. But a continued resolution

791
00:40:57,040 --> 00:41:01,759
Speaker 5: is now the default in the fall. What the Democrats

792
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:05,720
Speaker 5: say is we have to in order to reopen the government,

793
00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 5: you have to have this expansion of health care benefits

794
00:41:09,320 --> 00:41:12,799
Speaker 5: into next year. And what Republicans have said, if you

795
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:14,200
Speaker 5: want to have a debate about this, let's have a

796
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:16,839
Speaker 5: debate about it, but we should not hold the government hostage.

797
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:17,480
Speaker 10: Now.

798
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:21,319
Speaker 5: The last government shutdown we had. It was flipped. It

799
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 5: was Republicans saying we're going to hold a hostage and

800
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:27,360
Speaker 5: Democrats saying, no, no, Well, once you reopen the government,

801
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:31,080
Speaker 5: we'll have that conversation. Right, So these roles are completely

802
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:34,920
Speaker 5: reversed and scrambled. The process in the House would require

803
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:38,080
Speaker 5: us the House initiating a new bill going through the

804
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:40,439
Speaker 5: Rules Committee. There are not the votes on the Rules

805
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:43,960
Speaker 5: committee to pass what the Democrats have requested, which is

806
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:47,319
Speaker 5: about two hundred billion dollars of new spending for next

807
00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 5: year on healthcare in order to reopen the government. That

808
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:54,200
Speaker 5: is a really large bid just to keep the lights

809
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:57,799
Speaker 5: on for six weeks. It is an absurd bid. In

810
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:02,279
Speaker 5: order to continue the Obamacare subs for one year, that

811
00:42:02,560 --> 00:42:05,360
Speaker 5: was the original debate here. It would cost about twenty

812
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:08,800
Speaker 5: six billion dollars to keep the government open for six weeks.

813
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 5: I mean, these are big numbers. And so what the

814
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 5: Speaker said is, look, we'll have that debate. Happy to

815
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:17,920
Speaker 5: have the debate, but I'm not going to go originate

816
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:21,719
Speaker 5: a piece of legislation in the hopes my Democratic colleagues

817
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 5: will then adhere to their rhetoric about why we have

818
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:25,200
Speaker 5: the shutdown.

819
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 3: That said we also talked about back pay.

820
00:42:28,880 --> 00:42:29,360
Speaker 6: Oh yeah, the.

821
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:30,759
Speaker 3: President really started something here.

822
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 2: Hey listen, he said maybe not everybody gets back pay,

823
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 2: to the point of saying some don't deserve to be

824
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 2: taken care of. And I asked the speaker about that,

825
00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:42,240
Speaker 2: and he said, well, there are a couple of different

826
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:46,480
Speaker 2: legal interpretations of that law. Because we all thought the

827
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen law made clear that they had to be

828
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:52,759
Speaker 2: paid back when they were brought back from furlough. Are

829
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:56,120
Speaker 2: we really making this a jump ball? Is that good politics?

830
00:42:56,239 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 5: It's before twenty nineteen the law change. It has been.

831
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:02,279
Speaker 5: It's always been a jump ball. It's always been a

832
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 5: jump ball, an open question whether or not federal employees

833
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:08,560
Speaker 5: will get back pay. However, history is shown and every

834
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:12,920
Speaker 5: government shutdown that has ever occurred in the last century,

835
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:16,319
Speaker 5: they've gotten back pay. So these are federal employees that

836
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 5: have signed up to do a job, and it is

837
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:20,759
Speaker 5: not their fault that the government shut down. It's not

838
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 5: their fault the Congress can't get their act together. So

839
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:27,439
Speaker 5: I believe that Congress will have the sense to pay

840
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 5: all federal employees for back pay. Number one. Number two,

841
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:33,560
Speaker 5: I don't think there's clear debate. I don't think there's

842
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:35,959
Speaker 5: this is a debatable thing. The law is very clear

843
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:38,440
Speaker 5: that this is what will happen. And number three, you

844
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 5: have the filibuster in the Senate, which means the Democratic

845
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 5: minority controls whether or not the government is open. We

846
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:47,480
Speaker 5: have a shutdown right now because Schumer has the votes

847
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:52,960
Speaker 5: to withhold to filibuster and to stop the bill being

848
00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:55,400
Speaker 5: taken up that was passed the House to keep the government.

849
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,000
Speaker 5: I don't think the Democrats would come to the table

850
00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:00,960
Speaker 5: unless there's back pay. So there's a a waterfall of

851
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:03,400
Speaker 5: things that are that are true here. I think of

852
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 5: your federal employee, you know.

853
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:06,680
Speaker 3: So this is a distruction.

854
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:09,360
Speaker 5: It is a distraction now the pain of the riffs

855
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:14,239
Speaker 5: that's real. And there's a massive amount of not legal uncertainty,

856
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:16,759
Speaker 5: but definitive certainty on the power of O and B

857
00:44:16,960 --> 00:44:19,440
Speaker 5: to take these actions, and a governmental shut down that

858
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 5: should be concerning to Democratic leaders on the hills.

859
00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:24,640
Speaker 13: So, mister Chairman, you correctly predicted this would be a

860
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:26,279
Speaker 13: mess a while ago. So I'm going to ramp up

861
00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 13: the pressure on your predictive capabilities. But next week, when

862
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 13: we're looking the days ahead, we've got the military paycheck

863
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:35,200
Speaker 13: issue as well, is this going to be resolved next

864
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 13: week or is this something that waits until after the shutdown.

865
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:39,800
Speaker 8: Whenever that is, I'll.

866
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 5: Take the over. I'll take the over and every offer

867
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:46,439
Speaker 5: that i've everybody's that presented me with the date, I've

868
00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:50,359
Speaker 5: taken the over. I think the backstop of this is Thanksgiving.

869
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 5: I think we're going to have a lot more pain

870
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:55,440
Speaker 5: before this thing gets resolved and people come to their senses.

871
00:44:56,200 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 5: The fact is that you've already seen Schumer three Democratic senators.

872
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 5: It hasn't spread beyond that. But as the pain ramps up,

873
00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:10,080
Speaker 5: I think Democratic politicians in the Senate will come to

874
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:13,880
Speaker 5: the negotiating table. I think we'll have a reopening, and

875
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:16,759
Speaker 5: then we'll have a debate about healthcare and extending some

876
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 5: of these subsidies, and then we'll have the longer term

877
00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:22,680
Speaker 5: funding for the federal government. But it's gonna be choppy waters.

878
00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:23,239
Speaker 7: This piece of.

879
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:25,280
Speaker 2: Choppers is going to be junk soon though. Right November

880
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:27,799
Speaker 2: twenty first two cares. If they pass it in a

881
00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:30,040
Speaker 2: couple of weeks, the government's just going to shut down again.

882
00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 2: And there are many who do think that once this

883
00:45:33,160 --> 00:45:35,719
Speaker 2: is resolved, we will hit another shut down at the

884
00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 2: end of the year. We just keep kicking crs through

885
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:42,759
Speaker 2: the spring, or what's the best case scenario, don't say

886
00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:43,480
Speaker 2: regular order.

887
00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 5: Well, this is regular order. It continues regular normative thing

888
00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:50,640
Speaker 5: in the House. Two years ago, this was the finite

889
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 5: cause of the auschirch. Speaker McCarthy. We passed a cleaned

890
00:45:55,040 --> 00:46:01,440
Speaker 5: continued resolution. So this is a normative act in Washington. Unfortunately,

891
00:46:01,520 --> 00:46:05,600
Speaker 5: these every couple of administrations in ormer of act is

892
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:08,880
Speaker 5: also a government shutdown. It doesn't win you the policy,

893
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 5: the underlying policy. It does elevate your party in a

894
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:15,360
Speaker 5: political fight. And this is not about the policy, is

895
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:19,560
Speaker 5: actually about politics. Schumer is getting hammered on late night

896
00:46:19,640 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 5: TV like never before. John Stewart don't frequently quote called

897
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:27,560
Speaker 5: him a flat tire. I mean, these are very insult

898
00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:28,080
Speaker 5: on things.

899
00:46:28,239 --> 00:46:31,880
Speaker 3: Sketch that was a bad joke, the KF I mean,

900
00:46:31,920 --> 00:46:32,479
Speaker 3: there are a lot.

901
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:34,360
Speaker 5: Of bad jokes on late night TV. Don't give me.

902
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 2: I mean the.

903
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 3: Schumer joke that got him in hot water there.

904
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:41,480
Speaker 5: But Schumer, Schumer's in this fight because he looked feckless

905
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:43,560
Speaker 5: and weak in March, and he's now trying to look

906
00:46:43,600 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 5: like he's given a valiant fight to his Democratic base.

907
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:49,600
Speaker 5: Hakeem Jeffries is doing the same thing. So those fights,

908
00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:53,319
Speaker 5: that physical confrontation you almost saw on Capitol Hill is

909
00:46:53,360 --> 00:46:57,960
Speaker 5: trying to elevate Schumer. Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, Hakeem Jeffries

910
00:46:58,000 --> 00:47:00,640
Speaker 5: to the speakership, Schumer to the majority. They need to

911
00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:03,600
Speaker 5: show a fight against President Trump, and they have very

912
00:47:03,600 --> 00:47:05,799
Speaker 5: little power to do it outside of a shutdo if.

913
00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:07,520
Speaker 2: The Democratic member had done that, where we'd be talking

914
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:08,640
Speaker 2: about centure.

915
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:13,120
Speaker 5: I mean, look, all this stuff, all these performative acts

916
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:18,040
Speaker 5: are fun and games until somebody opens the door. And

917
00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:20,719
Speaker 5: that is always the case. Right, You're like, I'm going

918
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 5: to go fight with somebody. You're like, well, you're on

919
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:25,839
Speaker 5: a TV. I think they're in the two rooms behind you, right,

920
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:28,160
Speaker 5: Why don't Stor just talk to them instead of yell

921
00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:28,720
Speaker 5: on the screen.

922
00:47:29,400 --> 00:47:31,600
Speaker 13: So as far as the pressure points, though you mentioned Thanksgiving,

923
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:34,280
Speaker 13: I wonder if part of that timeline.

924
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:35,320
Speaker 8: Is the flight's issue.

925
00:47:35,640 --> 00:47:39,600
Speaker 13: Are we seeing enough pain on flight delays, air traffic

926
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:43,120
Speaker 13: controller shortages that sort of laying that the American public

927
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:45,879
Speaker 13: cares about to have a change in the negotiations.

928
00:47:46,360 --> 00:47:51,400
Speaker 5: Yes, and this is about again the nature the timing

929
00:47:51,640 --> 00:47:55,239
Speaker 5: of the reopening will be based off of pain and

930
00:47:55,280 --> 00:47:58,840
Speaker 5: how that maps out, and you can't predict what the

931
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:02,799
Speaker 5: pain will be like for their party in a week's time. Now,

932
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 5: I think the Democratic Party is the one that has

933
00:48:05,640 --> 00:48:08,600
Speaker 5: to fold in or for the reopening to happen. But

934
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:12,319
Speaker 5: you can see different movement based off of who is

935
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 5: deeply influenced by their constituents feeling pain or frankly, they

936
00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:17,799
Speaker 5: go to the airport and they can't get get on

937
00:48:17,800 --> 00:48:20,600
Speaker 5: their flight. That is a form of pain for those

938
00:48:20,600 --> 00:48:21,320
Speaker 5: of us that travel.

939
00:48:21,400 --> 00:48:24,319
Speaker 2: So you're still looking at Virginia, Maryland with the big

940
00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:28,080
Speaker 2: concentrations of federal workers to maybe crack and join the

941
00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:28,720
Speaker 2: jail break.

942
00:48:29,920 --> 00:48:34,200
Speaker 5: Yes, but those senators so that the Democratic delegation there

943
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:35,759
Speaker 5: in the Senate is it's.

944
00:48:35,680 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 2: Hitting a lot together, right, Yeah, so Van Holland not

945
00:48:38,760 --> 00:48:39,480
Speaker 2: so much now.

946
00:48:39,560 --> 00:48:42,120
Speaker 5: But you also don't know how these federal employees map out,

947
00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:44,799
Speaker 5: Like if you're talking about air traffic control, disproportionately they're

948
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:49,760
Speaker 5: located in Oklahoma. There's not a single Democratic federal office

949
00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,560
Speaker 5: holder from the state of Oklahoma, So you don't know

950
00:48:52,600 --> 00:48:53,240
Speaker 5: how these things.

951
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:53,920
Speaker 3: Are going to model out.

952
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:54,600
Speaker 6: Really interesting.

953
00:48:54,840 --> 00:48:58,040
Speaker 5: You also don't know how that Oklahoma delegation is communicating

954
00:48:58,040 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 5: with OMB to ensure that the people are paid. So

955
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:04,680
Speaker 5: there's all this subtlety that if you're in charge of

956
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 5: the OMB, you can either meet out met out pain

957
00:49:10,239 --> 00:49:13,840
Speaker 5: to your opponents or help your friends. And in this case,

958
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 5: I think OMB is being quite adepts being targeted on

959
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:22,760
Speaker 5: who they're sharing pain with, yes, and targeting who they're

960
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:25,719
Speaker 5: helping and maintaining account balances where they need to help them.

961
00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 2: Speaking of mapping out, it'll be really interesting to see

962
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 2: where these all end. I don't know how long it'll

963
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:31,759
Speaker 2: take before we have that data. Well, of course, bring

964
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:35,600
Speaker 2: it to you here on Bloomberg. Patrick McHenry, Bloomberg Politics contributor,

965
00:49:35,680 --> 00:49:38,799
Speaker 2: former Republican congressman. Great to have you. How often when

966
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:40,600
Speaker 2: you're on the plane they recognize you're the guy who

967
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:41,440
Speaker 2: replaced Kevin.

968
00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:43,759
Speaker 5: McCarthy zero without a bow time, I don't.

969
00:49:43,840 --> 00:49:45,880
Speaker 2: Okay, Well that's a good answer, and he brought it

970
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:48,360
Speaker 2: with him today, Michelle, Thanks for spending time with us, Michelle,

971
00:49:48,400 --> 00:49:51,279
Speaker 2: jam Risco, Joe Matthew and Washington on Bloomberg, thanks for

972
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:54,400
Speaker 2: listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to

973
00:49:54,440 --> 00:49:57,560
Speaker 2: subscribe if you haven't already at Apple Spotify or wherever

974
00:49:57,640 --> 00:50:00,239
Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, and you can find us live

975
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:04,080
Speaker 2: every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg

976
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:05,240
Speaker 2: dot com.