1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,360
Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Todcast is brought to you

2
00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,240
Speaker 1: by Wild Grain. Wild Grain is the first bake from

3
00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:11,280
Speaker 1: frozen subscription box for sour dough breads, arteasonal pastries, and

4
00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:14,800
Speaker 1: fresh pastas, plus all the items conveniently baked in twenty

5
00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:18,759
Speaker 1: five minutes or less. Unlike many store brought options, Wild

6
00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:21,880
Speaker 1: Grain uses some simple ingredients you can pronounce and a

7
00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:25,480
Speaker 1: slow fermentation process that can be a lot easier on

8
00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,080
Speaker 1: your belly, little gut health there right, and richer in

9
00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:32,600
Speaker 1: nutrients antioxidants. There's also no preservatives and no shortcuts. The

10
00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:35,800
Speaker 1: Wild Grain boxes are fully customizable. In addition to their

11
00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:38,920
Speaker 1: variety box, they have a gluten free box, a vegan box,

12
00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:42,559
Speaker 1: and a new protein box. I will tell you I

13
00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:44,960
Speaker 1: have done the gluten free box. I have done it

14
00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:48,600
Speaker 1: a second time. I have also used the code the

15
00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:52,040
Speaker 1: todcast code. You use the promo code toodcast at checkout

16
00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:55,640
Speaker 1: you get thirty dollars off. I've already used it as

17
00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,880
Speaker 1: a gift to somebody else who loves this bread. It

18
00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:02,560
Speaker 1: is hard to find good gluten free bread. It is fantastic.

19
00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:05,720
Speaker 1: They give you step by step instructions. I really dig this.

20
00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:09,760
Speaker 1: There is nothing like having an artesion bakery in your

21
00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:12,560
Speaker 1: freezer to chase away the winter chill. Now is the

22
00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:15,920
Speaker 1: best time to stay in and enjoy some comforting homemade

23
00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:19,440
Speaker 1: meals with wild Grain. I obviously highly recommend it. It

24
00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:22,240
Speaker 1: is worth giving wild Grain to try. Right now, Wildgrain

25
00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:24,919
Speaker 1: is offering my listeners thirty dollars off your first box

26
00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:28,720
Speaker 1: plus free croissants for life. Come on when you go

27
00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:32,880
Speaker 1: to wildgrain dot com slash podcast to start your subscription today.

28
00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:36,360
Speaker 1: That's thirty dollars off your first box and free croissants

29
00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:39,640
Speaker 1: for life when you visit wildgrain dot com slash podcast,

30
00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:43,640
Speaker 1: or simply use the promo code podcast at checkout. This

31
00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:50,080
Speaker 1: is a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that code.

32
00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:56,440
Speaker 1: Hello thereon, Welcome to the Monday episode of the check podcast.

33
00:01:56,480 --> 00:02:00,360
Speaker 1: It is our first one for I guess it's not

34
00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:04,480
Speaker 1: calendar spring because we haven't hit calendar spring yet. I

35
00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:09,760
Speaker 1: think meteorological spring has already happened. So I guess we

36
00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:14,840
Speaker 1: have the government control version of spring, meaning Congress decided

37
00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:18,239
Speaker 1: to set this ridiculously early version of daylight savings into

38
00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:21,520
Speaker 1: early March, and so here we are. But I have

39
00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:26,080
Speaker 1: to tell you it actually is coinciding with our first

40
00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:29,040
Speaker 1: seventy degrees, sort of multiple seventy degree to days in

41
00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:32,800
Speaker 1: a row. So what does this mean? Short sleeves, actual

42
00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:36,839
Speaker 1: short sleeves. I'm not ready to put the quarter zip,

43
00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:42,239
Speaker 1: the long sleep quarter zips in the mothballs just yet. Mothballs.

44
00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:45,040
Speaker 1: I am probably dating myself. I don't know anybody uses

45
00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:50,960
Speaker 1: mouthballs anymore, but I go back. It's a distinct smell

46
00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:53,119
Speaker 1: of my old great grandmother's house back in the day,

47
00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:57,960
Speaker 1: the smell of mothballs and protecting all of her winter clothes.

48
00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:02,680
Speaker 1: But I digress. Here we are a tad bit of

49
00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:06,839
Speaker 1: a wardrobe change, so we've got good fun there. But hey,

50
00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:11,519
Speaker 1: it hasn't been a light weekend, and that's the thing

51
00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:16,480
Speaker 1: we are in. We are in some heavy days these days,

52
00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:20,080
Speaker 1: and it doesn't look like it's going to get lighter

53
00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:24,120
Speaker 1: anytime soon. Let me give you a quick rundown. Got

54
00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:27,240
Speaker 1: sort of a big picture, sort of big picture sort

55
00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:29,799
Speaker 1: of political analysis for sort of the moment we're in,

56
00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:32,680
Speaker 1: the moment, the president's in the moment, the Republican Party

57
00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:36,120
Speaker 1: is in. My interview today is none other than ken Burn's.

58
00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:41,040
Speaker 1: I booked him a while ago, back during when the

59
00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:44,720
Speaker 1: American Revolution. It was sort of peeking and interested people

60
00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:47,560
Speaker 1: were downloading, but we went bigger than that. We talked

61
00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:52,280
Speaker 1: a lot about America to fifty you know, how to

62
00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:55,680
Speaker 1: make documentary films, sort of how he pulled off the

63
00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:59,760
Speaker 1: American Revolution in a polarizing era and didn't really have

64
00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:03,000
Speaker 1: people angry at him left or right, which is a

65
00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:08,160
Speaker 1: remarkable thing. So I know, no one, my listeners, you're

66
00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:10,520
Speaker 1: gonna love the ken Burns conversation. I've done Ken a

67
00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:13,000
Speaker 1: long time, and it is always a treat to spend

68
00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:15,520
Speaker 1: time with him, whether it's ten minutes or an hour,

69
00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:19,400
Speaker 1: and to have an hour with him, I count myself lucky.

70
00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:23,039
Speaker 1: I hope you enjoy that conversation. But we got sort

71
00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:26,520
Speaker 1: of everything you need to know about politics at this moment.

72
00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:29,400
Speaker 1: We got my ken Burns interview we will have this

73
00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:33,000
Speaker 1: week in history. Here's a clue. I'm actually there's two

74
00:04:33,120 --> 00:04:38,760
Speaker 1: remarkable anniversaries this week, March tenth and March twelfth. They

75
00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:42,560
Speaker 1: both have to do with mass with communications, not necessarily

76
00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:45,920
Speaker 1: mass communications, but with communications. That's the hint I will

77
00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,200
Speaker 1: give you now. But we will go into the time

78
00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:52,720
Speaker 1: machine after we do the ken Burns interview. Then we'll

79
00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:54,800
Speaker 1: do some questions, and let's just say I have a

80
00:04:54,800 --> 00:05:02,840
Speaker 1: few thoughts on President Trump's ridiculous attempt to try to

81
00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:05,880
Speaker 1: fix college sports, of which I don't think he really

82
00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:09,200
Speaker 1: had any interest in fixing college sports. But I digress.

83
00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:11,960
Speaker 1: I'm not kicking off with that as tempting as you

84
00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:16,360
Speaker 1: might think it might be for me. But instead we're

85
00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,520
Speaker 1: going to start where it's just one of those moments.

86
00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:22,200
Speaker 1: And I've talked to you about it before. You don't

87
00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:26,120
Speaker 1: know when presidencies end. You don't know when they're essentially

88
00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:29,080
Speaker 1: over as far as the public's concerned until after the fact.

89
00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:32,120
Speaker 1: I'm not guaranteeing we're in one of those moments at

90
00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:35,400
Speaker 1: this moment, but boy, does this start to look like

91
00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:37,480
Speaker 1: one of those moments when you compare it to other

92
00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:40,960
Speaker 1: times in history. So I think the best way to

93
00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:45,680
Speaker 1: describe the moment President Trump is currently in is that

94
00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:49,360
Speaker 1: he's got himself in what I would call presidential Quicksand

95
00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:53,240
Speaker 1: one of the defining features of second term presidencies in

96
00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:57,320
Speaker 1: particular is that once events begin moving against you, it

97
00:05:57,360 --> 00:05:59,919
Speaker 1: becomes much harder to reverse the momentum. Right, you know,

98
00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:03,840
Speaker 1: I love that Haley barberism, who I know he stole

99
00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,359
Speaker 1: from somebody else, so don't bother with the sending me

100
00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:09,120
Speaker 1: notes about that. But you know, good gets better, bad

101
00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:11,800
Speaker 1: gets worse. Well, when you look at the last three

102
00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:15,720
Speaker 1: weeks of the Republican Party, bad and Donald Trump's efforts

103
00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:19,520
Speaker 1: on it, bad is certainly slipping into worse all over

104
00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:22,680
Speaker 1: the spectrum. And that's why I think the moment I

105
00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:25,360
Speaker 1: would describe him in is quick saying, because every decision

106
00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:30,360
Speaker 1: that is meant to stabilize things can actually deepen the problem. Right,

107
00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:33,320
Speaker 1: you thrash, you get stuck even more. I guess you

108
00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:36,000
Speaker 1: could also say it's a Chinese finger trap, right, but

109
00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:40,640
Speaker 1: every show of strength actually ends up revealing weakness, particularly

110
00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:44,120
Speaker 1: with this president, and it's the nature of quicksand the

111
00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:47,120
Speaker 1: hearder you thrash, the deeper you sink. And right now,

112
00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:49,279
Speaker 1: that's what the presidency looks like. You see it in Iran,

113
00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:52,000
Speaker 1: you see it in the economy, you see it in

114
00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:54,800
Speaker 1: this tariff mess, you see it actually in corporate America

115
00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,960
Speaker 1: starting to push back. I think an underreported story from

116
00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:00,560
Speaker 1: last week, I understand why it is on are reported.

117
00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:03,680
Speaker 1: We're we're we're just we just created an open ended

118
00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:05,280
Speaker 1: war in Iran that I don't know how we get

119
00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:08,880
Speaker 1: out of and increasingly you actually see it show itself

120
00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:12,000
Speaker 1: on the political map. So let's start with Iran. This

121
00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,680
Speaker 1: is the clearest example of the quick stand effect. The

122
00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,160
Speaker 1: war is now more than a week old. More than

123
00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:19,520
Speaker 1: a thousand people are dead in Iran. Videos of massive

124
00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:24,320
Speaker 1: fires in Tehran after strikes on oil storage facilities dominated

125
00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:27,600
Speaker 1: social media over the weekend. Across the region. The conflict

126
00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:30,800
Speaker 1: is already expanding beyond simple military targets. There are now

127
00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:36,400
Speaker 1: attacks on infrastructure, including desalination plants across the Gulf. This is,

128
00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:40,480
Speaker 1: you know, the more infrastructure we destroy in Iran that

129
00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:46,040
Speaker 1: has nothing to do with their with their military, that's

130
00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:49,760
Speaker 1: that's how you lose hearts and minds. So I certainly

131
00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:53,240
Speaker 1: think our targeting needs needs to improve. And if they

132
00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:56,240
Speaker 1: think that, hey, let's punish more of the Iranian people

133
00:07:57,280 --> 00:07:59,880
Speaker 1: because you don't think they're rising up enough to overthrow

134
00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:04,320
Speaker 1: the regime, I don't think you quite understand what you've done.

135
00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:06,520
Speaker 1: So the opening phase of this war has already cost,

136
00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:09,760
Speaker 1: according to what the Pentagon has told Congress in this

137
00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:14,160
Speaker 1: first week, six billion dollars. So essentially it's six billion dollars.

138
00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:18,360
Speaker 1: Is that what we're looking at six billion dollars a week. Okay,

139
00:08:18,440 --> 00:08:25,760
Speaker 1: so he says four or five weeks, thirty billion dollars, right,

140
00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:28,800
Speaker 1: we already know they're thinking about a fifty billion dollars supplement.

141
00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:30,920
Speaker 1: Do we really think this is going to end in

142
00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:35,400
Speaker 1: four or five weeks? But here we are six billion

143
00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:38,520
Speaker 1: dollars one week. Conflict of course, shows no shine, no

144
00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:41,360
Speaker 1: sign of show showing down. Now there are reports of the

145
00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:44,040
Speaker 1: United States and Israel are discussing the possibility of sending

146
00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:48,720
Speaker 1: special forces into Iran to seize the uranium stockpiles. This

147
00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:54,040
Speaker 1: is Mission Creek right, much deeper involvement, actual boots on

148
00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:56,520
Speaker 1: the ground. Sure, you may say it's just special forces.

149
00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:58,520
Speaker 1: I have to tell you, I can't tell you how

150
00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:03,040
Speaker 1: many times presidents think US special forces, our special forces

151
00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:06,280
Speaker 1: are outstanding, whether they're the Navy Seals, the Army rangers.

152
00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:10,920
Speaker 1: But his boots on the ground. Let's not pretend it

153
00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:16,199
Speaker 1: is anything otherwise. And for those guys, we put more

154
00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:19,240
Speaker 1: on their shoulders than we probably should any set of

155
00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:23,160
Speaker 1: human beings. But I digress. Meanwhile, the President is describing

156
00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:27,320
Speaker 1: the war as a short excursion, while also leaving the

157
00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:29,640
Speaker 1: door open to putting American troops on the ground if

158
00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,680
Speaker 1: there were, in his words, a very good reason. So

159
00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:34,800
Speaker 1: the fact that he's listening to this and one thing

160
00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:36,880
Speaker 1: about military commanders, they don't like. They're not going to

161
00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:38,360
Speaker 1: want to lose a war. They're not going to want

162
00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:41,600
Speaker 1: to walk away. And trust me, Trump's going to this

163
00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:44,120
Speaker 1: is what's coming. Trump's going to want to walk away

164
00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:47,480
Speaker 1: sooner than is possible, and it is going to cause

165
00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:51,760
Speaker 1: even more chaos when he gets to that moment. That said,

166
00:09:51,800 --> 00:09:56,280
Speaker 1: there are two ideas that don't coexist very easily, right,

167
00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:58,599
Speaker 1: which is this idea that we might put troops on

168
00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:00,400
Speaker 1: the ground or we might just get it and out.

169
00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:05,400
Speaker 1: When presidents get into conflicts like this without a clear

170
00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:09,040
Speaker 1: strategic endgame, and trust me, there is none, the logic

171
00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:12,200
Speaker 1: of escalation begins to take over. First it's air strikes,

172
00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:16,239
Speaker 1: then it's deeper strikes. Right, we went from military infrastructure.

173
00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:20,200
Speaker 1: Now we're going to basic country infrastructure. Then it's the

174
00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,719
Speaker 1: special forces. Right, we're just talking about it now, but

175
00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:26,280
Speaker 1: we feel the need we have to secure their radio.

176
00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:29,280
Speaker 1: Then someone inevitably asks whether boots on the ground are

177
00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:32,600
Speaker 1: necessary to finish the job keep the peace. In order

178
00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:36,400
Speaker 1: to try to help this country stand itself up. I

179
00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:42,560
Speaker 1: unfortunately left out the likelihood of a civil war because

180
00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:45,600
Speaker 1: that's growing with every day that there is not a

181
00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:48,120
Speaker 1: full fledged regime change. History is a very clear record

182
00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,319
Speaker 1: on this question. If you want regime change from the

183
00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:54,240
Speaker 1: air alone, then you need to have a coherent opposition

184
00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:57,160
Speaker 1: ready to step in. And while there is plenty of

185
00:10:57,200 --> 00:11:01,600
Speaker 1: discontent all around, Iran do not have a unified opposition

186
00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:06,640
Speaker 1: ready to run this country tomorrow, despite the fantasies in

187
00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:11,120
Speaker 1: President Trump's head, and whatever networks did exist were severely

188
00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:13,800
Speaker 1: weakened by the regimes cracked down on protesters over the

189
00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:17,560
Speaker 1: past two months. So the potential leaders are either being

190
00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:22,319
Speaker 1: killed or they're very far underground. So the fantasy scenario

191
00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:26,120
Speaker 1: that you remove the leadership with in a new political

192
00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:29,760
Speaker 1: order magically appears. This is simply not grounded in reality.

193
00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:33,600
Speaker 1: And there's another irony here. Trump of all people, should

194
00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:39,400
Speaker 1: understand the ideological loyalty that exists in Iran. His own

195
00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:42,840
Speaker 1: political basis stuck with him through every controversy imaginable. In fact,

196
00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:45,640
Speaker 1: the most remarkable thing about all the polling we've seen

197
00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:48,000
Speaker 1: in the last week is how those that describe themselves

198
00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:50,880
Speaker 1: as maga are more supportive of these strikes than those

199
00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:55,400
Speaker 1: who say they're not a part of the Mega movement. Right,

200
00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:58,600
Speaker 1: the MAGA influencers don't like this war and don't let write.

201
00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:03,080
Speaker 1: But for now, you know Trump's The devotion to Trump

202
00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:06,480
Speaker 1: among MAGA is real. Right, They're more devoted to Trump

203
00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:09,760
Speaker 1: on this issue than the Mega influences are, which is

204
00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:12,200
Speaker 1: an interesting Now. That doesn't mean this won't chip away

205
00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:16,920
Speaker 1: over time, But right now, the president has blind loyalty

206
00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:22,480
Speaker 1: among his base, and so it shouldn't surprise him that

207
00:12:22,559 --> 00:12:28,959
Speaker 1: the Iranian regime, a theocracy that's been in place for

208
00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:36,000
Speaker 1: nearly fifty years, has blind loyalty. But the fact that

209
00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:40,119
Speaker 1: he seems surprised that the Iranian regime has these supporters

210
00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:43,840
Speaker 1: willing to defend itself despite hardship or chaos. The fact

211
00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:47,400
Speaker 1: that he's surprised by this shows you how how he

212
00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:50,760
Speaker 1: doesn't quite understand how the world works. It's a fundamental

213
00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:54,920
Speaker 1: misunderstanding of political movements, and it leads to some bad

214
00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:58,400
Speaker 1: strategic assumptions, because when you misread the internal dynamics of

215
00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:02,520
Speaker 1: another country, for some rarely produces the outcome you imagine,

216
00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:05,880
Speaker 1: which brings us back to the bigger problem. Once you

217
00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:09,840
Speaker 1: are in the quicksand of a conflict like this, it's

218
00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:13,440
Speaker 1: very difficult to exit cleanly. At some point, the president

219
00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:16,840
Speaker 1: is likely going to just say, hey, we did it.

220
00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:21,760
Speaker 1: It's time to move on, right when he knows that

221
00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:25,920
Speaker 1: this thing is just killing him domestically, politically, right, I

222
00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,880
Speaker 1: sort of joke remembered, remember when Pam Bondy lost her

223
00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:31,839
Speaker 1: shit talking about Dow. Why are you asking about Dow

224
00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:35,840
Speaker 1: fifty thousand? Well, how about Dow forty nine thousand, how

225
00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,640
Speaker 1: about Dow forty eight thousand, how about Dow forty seven thousand.

226
00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:42,920
Speaker 1: It's almost as if Pam Bondy said it out loud, right,

227
00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:47,360
Speaker 1: don't say it out loud, she says it out loud.

228
00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:49,840
Speaker 1: And it's been nothing but a sell off, nothing but

229
00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:52,920
Speaker 1: a sell off. And mark my words, this is selling Trump.

230
00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:59,280
Speaker 1: This is selling Trump. This market collapses, Trump realizing he

231
00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:01,640
Speaker 1: has no idea what he's doing in this war, no

232
00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:04,600
Speaker 1: idea what he's doing on the economy. They're starting to

233
00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:10,920
Speaker 1: sell him. This really is his economy and his stock market.

234
00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:15,840
Speaker 1: And we know how much this is impacting his head,

235
00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:18,559
Speaker 1: and it will so he's you know, he's going to

236
00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:20,720
Speaker 1: try He's been trying all sorts of things. We're winning,

237
00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:24,880
Speaker 1: it's going great, it's over. They've apologized all these crazy

238
00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:28,840
Speaker 1: truth social posts that like have nothing in common with

239
00:14:28,920 --> 00:14:34,680
Speaker 1: reality on the ground, And so his impatience is coming.

240
00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:37,600
Speaker 1: We know this. I mean, I actually am pretty confident

241
00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:39,640
Speaker 1: he isn't going to put boots on the ground because

242
00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:44,200
Speaker 1: he's so scared politically. But the ineptness of what he's

243
00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:46,440
Speaker 1: doing here is actually going to create more chaos and

244
00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:49,040
Speaker 1: more instability, and we're actually going to get to the

245
00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:52,000
Speaker 1: point where we might we might almost have no choice

246
00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:57,200
Speaker 1: but to put boots on the ground. Now, let's talk

247
00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:01,120
Speaker 1: about the economic quicksan, and the danger for Trump is

248
00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:03,480
Speaker 1: that Iran is not the only front where the ground

249
00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:07,360
Speaker 1: is getting unstable beneath his feet. Look at this economy.

250
00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:10,960
Speaker 1: This latest jobs report has raised more questions than it answered.

251
00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:13,560
Speaker 1: One month doesn't make a trend, we all know that.

252
00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:18,479
Speaker 1: But the broader signals that's in this report is increasingly concerning.

253
00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:21,720
Speaker 1: So you've got a bunch of slower growth indicators. You've

254
00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:24,720
Speaker 1: got rising energy anxiety because of the war. You've got

255
00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:28,920
Speaker 1: uncertainty around tariffs and trade policy. Federal Reserve is staring

256
00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:33,240
Speaker 1: at the worst possible combination slow in growth and rising prices.

257
00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:39,560
Speaker 1: It's what was deemed stagflation. Right, it's like the worst

258
00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:44,120
Speaker 1: of all worlds. Look in this. It's one month's job report,

259
00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:48,320
Speaker 1: but just like the last. It's interesting that last job

260
00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:54,040
Speaker 1: report we got was shockingly good. This job's report for

261
00:15:54,120 --> 00:15:57,400
Speaker 1: some people with shockingly back. The question is which one

262
00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:01,280
Speaker 1: fits the world you're actually living in. That good job's

263
00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:03,600
Speaker 1: report was more of a shocker because it didn't seem

264
00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:07,520
Speaker 1: to fit what was happening in real life. This job's

265
00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:12,200
Speaker 1: report sadly fits what appears to be happening in real life. Right.

266
00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:15,240
Speaker 1: The fact that productivity went up, can you say, AI,

267
00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:20,600
Speaker 1: anybody but we but are but the but the job

268
00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:26,440
Speaker 1: jobs actually shrink again one month does not make a

269
00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:32,560
Speaker 1: trend extraordinarily concerning. And we haven't even and this hasn't

270
00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:36,880
Speaker 1: even factored in rising gas prices and rising energy costs,

271
00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:43,600
Speaker 1: which are a whole other level of economic uncertainty. So now, politically,

272
00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:47,920
Speaker 1: this is incredibly dangerous territory for Trump because voters did

273
00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:51,200
Speaker 1: not elect him to manage a complicated geopolitical crisis. They

274
00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:52,880
Speaker 1: did not want this. In fact, it was one of

275
00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:55,920
Speaker 1: the features of Trump's candidacy is that he was loudly

276
00:16:55,960 --> 00:17:00,240
Speaker 1: proclaiming he wasn't going to do things like this. Ronald

277
00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:02,840
Speaker 1: Trump got elected for one reason by this small slice

278
00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:04,960
Speaker 1: of voters who decided to go from Biden to Trump.

279
00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:09,360
Speaker 1: They believed he would bring down the cost of prices,

280
00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:12,680
Speaker 1: that he was going to manage the economy better than

281
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:17,560
Speaker 1: Biden or Kamala Harris. That was the job description, period

282
00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:21,439
Speaker 1: and distory. But the policies we've seen so far have

283
00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:26,280
Speaker 1: done the exact opposite. Tariffs raising prices, trade disruption raising prices,

284
00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:30,720
Speaker 1: geopolitical instability raising prices, all moving this economy in the

285
00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:36,080
Speaker 1: opposite direction. Prices are under pressure, the markets are jittery,

286
00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:41,040
Speaker 1: businesses are uncertain about the rules. And that matters because

287
00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:44,000
Speaker 1: the voters who put Trump back into the White House,

288
00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:47,879
Speaker 1: not his loyal base who will literally do whatever he says,

289
00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:52,480
Speaker 1: but the ones, the actual swing voters. They were not

290
00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:56,199
Speaker 1: the diehard loyalists. These voters will stick with him. The

291
00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:58,439
Speaker 1: loyalists will stick with them through everything we're seeing. This.

292
00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:01,359
Speaker 1: The fact that the so called self described magabase as

293
00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:04,280
Speaker 1: sticking with him with this foreign war excursion that he's

294
00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:06,639
Speaker 1: doing tells you everything you need to know about the

295
00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,160
Speaker 1: loyalty of the magabase, and you see it in the polls.

296
00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:12,879
Speaker 1: There's great new NBC News, you know, the premium NBC

297
00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:17,720
Speaker 1: News poll is out, Hart mcinturf, Bill McInturff, Jeff Horwick,

298
00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:25,840
Speaker 1: and it shows that in some ways his base hasn't

299
00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:31,400
Speaker 1: really gone anywhere, but everybody else has moved hard against him,

300
00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:34,640
Speaker 1: including that slice of swing voters that took him from

301
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,720
Speaker 1: losing in twenty twenty to winning in twenty twenty four.

302
00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:43,240
Speaker 1: And the voters who matter politically the most at the

303
00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:45,720
Speaker 1: moment are the conditional supporters, the people who said, I

304
00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:48,159
Speaker 1: may not love the chaos that he brings, but he

305
00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:50,200
Speaker 1: understands the economy and at the end of the day,

306
00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:53,720
Speaker 1: that's really all I care about. And if that bargain breaks,

307
00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:56,520
Speaker 1: the coalition breaks, and we're already seeing, right, the last

308
00:18:56,520 --> 00:19:00,560
Speaker 1: ones in have been the first ones out in first

309
00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,400
Speaker 1: out is a rule at corporate America sometimes when there's

310
00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:06,959
Speaker 1: job cuts, and it's also a rule in political coalitions.

311
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,359
Speaker 1: The last ones to join your coalition are usually the

312
00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:12,800
Speaker 1: first ones at flee when the going gets tough. It's

313
00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:16,199
Speaker 1: another way that presidential quicksand works. The response from a

314
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:19,479
Speaker 1: president like Trump is usually more aggression, more promises, more

315
00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:25,160
Speaker 1: dramatic actions, but usually those actions simply deepen the instability.

316
00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:31,600
Speaker 1: Then there's the tariff mess. This is quicksand in legal form,

317
00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:35,680
Speaker 1: Supreme Court is struck down right Trump's emergency terff regime.

318
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:40,000
Speaker 1: The administration is continues to find ways. You know, they're

319
00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:43,600
Speaker 1: looking for ways to discourage companies from collecting stolen money.

320
00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:47,240
Speaker 1: Now right, it's now money that does not belong to

321
00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:50,880
Speaker 1: the government. It belongs to these businesses that paid them.

322
00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:53,000
Speaker 1: And then, of course they may belong to the consumers

323
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:57,199
Speaker 1: that those businesses raise prices on. We're talking billions of

324
00:19:57,240 --> 00:19:59,600
Speaker 1: dollars that businesses were forced to pay under a policy

325
00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:05,679
Speaker 1: the court has deemed unconstitutional illegal. So even after losing

326
00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:08,080
Speaker 1: in court, the administration appears to be looking for ways

327
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:11,880
Speaker 1: to hold onto this money, such a Donald Trump move, right,

328
00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,840
Speaker 1: the guy who never pays his contractors. It's not just

329
00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 1: politically risky. It reinforces a deeper pattern here, right, just

330
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:27,639
Speaker 1: governing by improvisation instead of building policy through Congress. The

331
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:31,680
Speaker 1: administration imposted sweeping terriffs through more emergency authority. More emergency

332
00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:36,360
Speaker 1: authority that's likely unconstitutional, unclear at this time, I think

333
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:40,080
Speaker 1: businesses are going to be more likely to sue the

334
00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:43,680
Speaker 1: bigger businesses. It is ironic that none of the big

335
00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,480
Speaker 1: businesses who were hit harder by tariffs than the small

336
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,560
Speaker 1: businesses had the guts to sue this administration. I'm looking

337
00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:53,320
Speaker 1: at you, Amazon in Walmart. But it was the small

338
00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 1: business it said, had the guts to stand up to

339
00:20:55,880 --> 00:21:02,439
Speaker 1: the tyranny of these tariffs, and they want. But instead

340
00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:06,040
Speaker 1: of accepting the ruling of the Judiciary branch, the White

341
00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:09,120
Speaker 1: House is still searching for another workaround, and all it's

342
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 1: turning into is more quicksand. A shortcut creates a mess,

343
00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:17,520
Speaker 1: The mess requires a workaround. The workaround creates another legal vulnerability,

344
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,960
Speaker 1: and instead of projecting strength, the Presidency begins to look

345
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 1: reactive and trapped again quicksand and it may explain why

346
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 1: corporate America feels comfortable to start pushing back. This was

347
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:36,760
Speaker 1: something that felt very unlikely even just six weeks ago.

348
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 1: But we're starting to see corporate America very quietly, very

349
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:45,160
Speaker 1: slowly projects some independence. And it's not because CEOs suddenly

350
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:49,119
Speaker 1: discover their inner activist. Because the cost of compliance became

351
00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:54,160
Speaker 1: too high. Anthropic recently refused the Pentagon demands to remove

352
00:21:54,200 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 1: safety guardrails from its AI systems for military use. They

353
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:07,840
Speaker 1: pushed back. Netflix walked away rather than to abide by

354
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 1: the forced firings from their board, essentially allowing the president

355
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,680
Speaker 1: to manage their private company. The irony is that both

356
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,679
Speaker 1: Aranthropic and Netflix walking away from the government instead of

357
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 1: being coerced by the government was actually good business. If

358
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 1: you go look at Claude usage rates over the last week,

359
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 1: their way up CHATCHIPD usage weights are either flattered down

360
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 1: and now since small business is one, now the major

361
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:46,600
Speaker 1: retailers are speaking of Costco, FedEx, Hasbro. Now they're suing

362
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 1: the administration for their terar free funds. They didn't have

363
00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:51,320
Speaker 1: the guts to jump on and sue from the beginning,

364
00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 1: but now that they are owed money, now they want

365
00:22:53,840 --> 00:23:03,640
Speaker 1: their money. These aren't ideological revolts, their strategy calculations. It's

366
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:06,680
Speaker 1: the whiff of weakness that's what these corporations now smell.

367
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:10,360
Speaker 1: Businesses push back when the risks of going along outweigh

368
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 1: the risks of resisting, and suddenly the calculation is shifting. Historically,

369
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:20,119
Speaker 1: corporations do not challenge presidents they believe are firmly in

370
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 1: control or can really give them, create problems for them

371
00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 1: first year of Trump's presidency. In this second second presidency,

372
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 1: it's pretty much how corporations treated them. Corporations will push

373
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 1: back when they sense drift, instability, or overreach. It's another

374
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 1: signal that the aura of inevitability around Trump's political power

375
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:52,440
Speaker 1: is weakening by the hour. This episode of the Chuck

376
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 1: Toddcast is brought to you by American Financing. So if

377
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 1: you looked at your credit card statement lately, you're working

378
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 1: forty fifty hours a week just to buy growthies and gas,

379
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 1: things that used to be able to afford right, and

380
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,919
Speaker 1: the credit card companies are charging you over twenty percent

381
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 1: interest for the privilege. Think about that. It's a lot

382
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:10,800
Speaker 1: of extra money out the door. It's designed to keep

383
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 1: you under water. Well, American Financing is doing something they hate.

384
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 1: They're actually trying to help people. They have mortgage rates

385
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 1: in the fives. They're showing homeowners how to take their

386
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 1: hard earned equity to wipe out that high interest debts.

387
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 1: The average savings is eight hundred dollars a month. So

388
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 1: talk to a salary based mortgage consultant. No upfront fees,

389
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 1: no obligation, commission, none of that to see how much

390
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:34,880
Speaker 1: you can say and if you start today, you could

391
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 1: delay two mortgage payments. Give American Financing a call America's

392
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 1: home for home loans eight six six eight eight five

393
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 1: ten eighty one. That's eight six six eight eight five

394
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 1: one zero eight one, or go to Americanfinancing dot net.

395
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 1: Slash the Chuck Toodcast use that code. This episode of

396
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 1: The Chuck Podcast is brought to you by z Biotics.

397
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:02,920
Speaker 1: Let's face it, after a night with drinks, it's hard

398
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 1: to bounce back the next day. You have to make

399
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 1: a choice either have a great night or a great

400
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 1: next day. Well, that's where pre alcohol comes in. Zbiotics

401
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 1: Pre alcohol probiotic drink is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic.

402
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 1: It was invented by PhD scientists to tackle rough mornings

403
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 1: after drinking. Here's how it works. When you drink, alcohol

404
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 1: gets converted into a toxic byproduct in the gut. It's

405
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 1: a build up of this byproduct, not dehydration that's to

406
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:33,440
Speaker 1: blame for the rough days after drinking. Pre alcohol produces

407
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:37,159
Speaker 1: an enzyme to break this byproduct down. Just remember to

408
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 1: make pre alcohol your first drink of the night. Drink

409
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:44,159
Speaker 1: responsibly and you'll feel your best tomorrow. Now. Look, I

410
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 1: don't drink anymore, so I can't give zebiotics pre alcohol

411
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:50,919
Speaker 1: a personal endorsement. But my producer Lauren does drink and

412
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,680
Speaker 1: he tried it out. Lauren, how was your experience.

413
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:55,440
Speaker 2: I'll be honest, Chuck. I was a bit skeptical at first,

414
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:56,880
Speaker 2: but the other night I went out with my wife

415
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:59,880
Speaker 2: to our favorite spot for Margarita's and tried pre alcohol beforehand.

416
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,160
Speaker 2: Gotta admit I was surprised by how good I felt

417
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 2: the next morning. Disable the pop right out of bed,

418
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 2: get a workout in, have a great day of work.

419
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,160
Speaker 2: So pre alcoholic gets my stamp of approval.

420
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:10,199
Speaker 1: So there you go. You ready to try it, Go

421
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 1: to zebiotics dot com slash Chuck podcast right now. You'll

422
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 1: get fifteen percent off your first order when you use

423
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:19,639
Speaker 1: Chuck podcast at checkout. Plus, it's backed by a one

424
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:23,920
Speaker 1: hundred percent money back guarantee, so there's no risk. Subscriptions

425
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 1: are also available for maximum consistency. Remember to hedad to

426
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 1: zebiotics dot com slash Chuck podcast and use the code

427
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:35,800
Speaker 1: Chuck podcast at checkout for the fifteen percent discount. Again,

428
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 1: use the code Chuck podcast and that brings us to

429
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 1: the political matter that also radically has changed over the

430
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 1: last few weeks, because the quick sand effect isn't just

431
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 1: showing up in these policy finds, it's showing up in

432
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:59,119
Speaker 1: the coalition itself. Look, the coalition is not going to

433
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,399
Speaker 1: collapse overnight. For Tis, his base is not going to

434
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,879
Speaker 1: go anywhere. He's got a high floor, and those running

435
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 1: against mega Republicans got to understand that it's a high

436
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:14,120
Speaker 1: floor right now. Still, the coalitions, while they don't collapse overnight,

437
00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 1: they begin to fray. And this one's fraying. And you

438
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 1: know when it's fraying because the politicians in tougher terrain

439
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 1: begin hedging. First, I think it's a very big deal

440
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 1: that a Republican member of Congress in California thought, you

441
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,119
Speaker 1: know what, the best path the reelection is for me,

442
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 1: drop the r That's what California Congressman Kevin Kylie has

443
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 1: decided to do. He really recently announced that he's leaving

444
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 1: the Republican Party and he's going to run for reelection,

445
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 1: but he's going to do so as an independent officially

446
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 1: no party preference. Now, obviously there's a practical reason for

447
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 1: that decision. California's redistricting blew up his old district, left

448
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:56,359
Speaker 1: him choosing between a safe Republican seat already held by

449
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 1: another Republican so the possibility of a member member primary.

450
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 1: Chose not to do that, or a competitive seat that

451
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 1: leans democratic. It's not dark blue, but it's light blue.

452
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 1: This new seat for Kylie, and he chose the harder seat,

453
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 1: and he chose to run without the Republican labe. So

454
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 1: why do you do that? Well, because in the district

455
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 1: he now needs to win, the label is a liability.

456
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:25,439
Speaker 1: Kylie has already been distancing himself with Trump on tariffs

457
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:30,199
Speaker 1: and criticizing the hyperpartisan culture in Washington, and yes, he

458
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:31,920
Speaker 1: did so out of self interest. He was one of

459
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 1: the only Republicans to criticize Trump and Texas for what

460
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 1: they were doing with redistricting, knowing that it was going

461
00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 1: to impact him directly and impact his political career. So

462
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: certainly it's self interest. But he also you know, this

463
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 1: is a guy, by the way, that voted against Trump

464
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 1: on tariffs. So if he wants to be who he

465
00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 1: really wants to be, he's got a declare political independence

466
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 1: because you're not allowed to stray too far from the

467
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 1: party line on the right, and increasingly there's a belief

468
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 1: you can't straight too far from the party line on

469
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 1: the left. Democrats used to be a bit more open.

470
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 1: It's funny how this works. Used to be the first

471
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 1: you know, when whatever parties out of power usually is

472
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,000
Speaker 1: a bit more open to letting people use their party

473
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:23,479
Speaker 1: label and define it in any way they want. But

474
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 1: then the more success you have, the more purity you want.

475
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 1: In these polarized times, right, we're seeing an increasingly an

476
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 1: increasing number of progressives who want to essentially emulate Trump.

477
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 1: If Trump can run rough shot over constitutional norms to

478
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 1: get his agenda in, then why can't a progressive president

479
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 1: do the same thing. Still, this Kylie decision is a

480
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 1: big deal. Democrats will argue that he's just rebranding just

481
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 1: to try to win a seat, that it's cosmetic. They'll

482
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 1: point out that he voted with Trump most of the time,

483
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 1: but it actually reinforces the larger point. He would not

484
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 1: be shedding the party label if he thought the label

485
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 1: still helped him win. That's how That's how you're seeing

486
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:16,480
Speaker 1: a coalition fray in real time. Yes, it's it's California,

487
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 1: I understand that, But this is a guy who's been

488
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:23,719
Speaker 1: a Republican a long time, and not like some liberal

489
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 1: Republican either. Just to frankly, what pre Trump would have

490
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 1: been considered a conventional conservative Republican. Then let's look at Montana.

491
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 1: Steve Dames retirement. Someone didn't want to spend another six

492
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 1: years defending these policies. He's stunned to the state by

493
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 1: withdrawing his reelection bid just minutes before the filing deadline.

494
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 1: And then he did some shenanigans, right. He cleared the

495
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 1: way for an anointed person, no real competitive primary, and

496
00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 1: I think it's possible Republicans pay a price for this.

497
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 1: So the US Attorney Curt Holmy is jumping in the race.

498
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 1: He's immediately got the endorsement of Danes and Trump. So

499
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 1: it's this sort of quick handover without Republican primary voters

500
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 1: in Montana getting a say, uh, it's you know, this

501
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 1: is what feeds deep cynicism about party politics these days.

502
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 1: But the maneuvers open the door for a serious independent

503
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 1: bid from Seth Bodner. Ironically, the day that Danes pulled

504
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 1: his withdrawal trick is the day Bodner announced his independent candidacies.

505
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 1: The former president of University of Montana. He's a Rhodes scholar,

506
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 1: he's a former Green Beret. Couldn't have asked for a

507
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 1: better news development to reinforce the independent idea of an

508
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 1: independent candidacy. Bodner explicitly is running on the argument that

509
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 1: both parties have become too insulated from voters. And what

510
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 1: does Steve Danges do. Let me show you how insulated

511
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:58,200
Speaker 1: we are over here. Watch us do this little backdoor

512
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 1: trick and not give voters a se I mean it was.

513
00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 1: It literally could not have been better. It could not

514
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 1: have been scripted better by the Bodner campaign themselves. Now, look,

515
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 1: Montana is still a Republican leaning state, but the very

516
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 1: existence of a strong independent lane is telling because this

517
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 1: anti establishment energy I think is real in this cycle,

518
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 1: and it's not neatly contained within one party, right, It

519
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 1: is the Democrats that that, you know, Bodner. John Tester

520
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 1: has already endorsed the Independent over any of the Democrats

521
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 1: running because he believes the Democratic brand is just not

522
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 1: an electable brand in the state of Montana, just like

523
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 1: Kevin Kylie does not believe the Republican brand is electable

524
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 1: in the state of California. You put those two things

525
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 1: together and you see a broader pattern. Here in California,

526
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 1: Republican decides he has to distance himself from the party.

527
00:32:55,840 --> 00:33:03,000
Speaker 1: Lade on Montana, it's a it's a perhaps a I'm

528
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 1: not sure if he's Democratic leaning or just not comfortable

529
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 1: with where the Republican Party was headed in Bodner, But

530
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 1: either way, it's an Oh, it's an opening for an

531
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:16,360
Speaker 1: outsider campaign attacking the entire system. So the coalition that

532
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:19,680
Speaker 1: once rallied around Trump is now loosening at the edges.

533
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 1: Remember Trump was the outsider at one point. Trump was

534
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 1: the essentially the independent, and he is not considered an outsider.

535
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 1: He is considered part of the problem, part of the establishment.

536
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 1: And that's that's what happens to second term presidencies. And

537
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 1: once they lose that aura of political usefulness, discipline becomes

538
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 1: harder to maintain. This is only going to accelerate. Good

539
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 1: gets better, bad gets worse. Members are going to start

540
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 1: asking now how to stay close to the president, but

541
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 1: how to protect themselves from the fallout that appears to

542
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 1: be inevitable. And one more thing that often happens when

543
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 1: presidencies enter this political quicksand that Donald Trump has found

544
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:12,279
Speaker 1: himself in. They start chasing side battles, looking for anything

545
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 1: to improve, to either distract from the crankiness of the electorate,

546
00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 1: to do something. You know, college sports, we try that.

547
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:26,800
Speaker 1: By the way, good grief, the optics of that. The

548
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 1: Secretary of State. Look, Marco Rubio has the same amount

549
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:35,319
Speaker 1: of interest and influence in college football as I have.

550
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,759
Speaker 1: He is the father of a college athlete, so sure

551
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:48,680
Speaker 1: I would be curious of what he thinks of the system.

552
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:50,719
Speaker 1: But the fact that he spent two hours of his

553
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 1: day on Friday when there are strand I mean, I'm

554
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 1: curious what a stranded American in the Middle East thinks

555
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:58,759
Speaker 1: of the head of the State Department, who did not

556
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 1: plan at all, apparently to evacuate Americans anywhere, did have

557
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:13,799
Speaker 1: time to pontificate about college sports. But the point is,

558
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:14,960
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna, like I said, I have a lot

559
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,239
Speaker 1: more about the college sports. But boy, was that just

560
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:24,399
Speaker 1: terrible optics. Timing couldn't have looked worse. And I mean,

561
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 1: this was an unseious event and I'm going to get

562
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 1: to it later of how un serious it was. But

563
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:31,719
Speaker 1: these little side side shows that Trump is going to

564
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 1: continue to try to do for distraction, right, so it's

565
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:38,719
Speaker 1: college sports. Maybe they're executive order fantasies. You know, he

566
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 1: may start pontificating again about emergency powers over elections like

567
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 1: this crazy truth. I'm not signing any bill until they

568
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,840
Speaker 1: passed the Save Act, which includes you know, demands for

569
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:51,800
Speaker 1: birth certificates before you can vote. I mean, really cuckoo stuff.

570
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:57,440
Speaker 1: But what it really is, it's what is really showing

571
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 1: you is that he's losing control, and he knows it,

572
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 1: and he's desperate to try to project some sort of

573
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:09,839
Speaker 1: strength or some sort of control. He's obviously trying to

574
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:13,880
Speaker 1: do this because he knows when core problems are getting

575
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:16,280
Speaker 1: harder to solve, the temptation is to dominate the headlines

576
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:22,839
Speaker 1: with just anything else. And Donald Trump he thinks spectacle

577
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 1: is a strategy. But trust me, spectacle is no strategy.

578
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 1: So this is what presidential quicksay looks like. A war

579
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 1: expanding while the President calls it limited, an economy sending

580
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 1: warning signals while the White House insists everything is fine,

581
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:42,320
Speaker 1: remain calm all as well, a terriff regime that collapsed

582
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:47,239
Speaker 1: in court. Corporate America now feeling comfortable resisting without fear

583
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 1: of punishment. Politicians and the president's own coalition quietly repositioning

584
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 1: either just leaving they're done, they can't do it, or

585
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:59,359
Speaker 1: they leave the party and run as an independent. None

586
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 1: of this means the whole thing collapses tomorrow, quick saying

587
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:08,719
Speaker 1: is slower than that. It's cumulative, but the pattern is

588
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:11,480
Speaker 1: very recognizable. This is starting to look a lot like

589
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 1: two thousand and six. There's a few things that are

590
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 1: different I'll get to in a minute, but it's unchecked.

591
00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 1: Trump more insulated than he was in his first term,

592
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:24,799
Speaker 1: more convinced of his instincts, less constrained by advisors. He's

593
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 1: not mastering events. Events have overtaken him. He just hasn't

594
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:34,799
Speaker 1: accepted that reality yet because he's just reacting again. And

595
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 1: when a president starts reacting more than governing, that's usually

596
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:43,920
Speaker 1: when the ground beneath beneath them will give way completely.

597
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 1: And let me put a let me button it up

598
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:55,960
Speaker 1: with this. When you look at the Biden presidency in

599
00:37:56,000 --> 00:38:00,799
Speaker 1: the one term, and I'd spent a lot of time

600
00:38:01,600 --> 00:38:04,239
Speaker 1: during that time, and even saying in how Afghanistan was

601
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 1: was sort of a moment that he seemed to lose

602
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:10,439
Speaker 1: the presidency, and he never got the plot back right,

603
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:13,879
Speaker 1: because if you look at the Joe Biden approval rating,

604
00:38:13,960 --> 00:38:19,040
Speaker 1: right once it hit, once Afghanistan happened, and there was

605
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 1: a reason why the voters never he never recovered from

606
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 1: that moment. And I'm gonna and and I'll explain where

607
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:28,520
Speaker 1: why this is this is relevant to Trump in a second.

608
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:32,720
Speaker 1: He didn't, you know, the vote average voter knew Biden

609
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:36,720
Speaker 1: was very you know onee policy was his best subject.

610
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:40,399
Speaker 1: This was a core competency that the public thought he had.

611
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:46,400
Speaker 1: You know, there was less there was less uh confidence

612
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:50,320
Speaker 1: in his ability to uh deal with the economy, less

613
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 1: confidence and his ability to sort of galvanize the public

614
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 1: around a big idea. But on foreign affairs there was

615
00:38:57,520 --> 00:39:01,279
Speaker 1: a core competency and a core expertise perceived expertise with him.

616
00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:05,080
Speaker 1: So when that was a total calamity and all the

617
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 1: chaos that went with the Afghanistan withdrawal, his approval rating

618
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 1: drop a low forty five, never recovered again. With Donald Trump,

619
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 1: the core competency that voters attributed it to him is

620
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:21,920
Speaker 1: managing the economy. I know some of you think he

621
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 1: never had, you know, you don't know, but the majority

622
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 1: of voters remember it's a choice. And they they looked

623
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:31,879
Speaker 1: at Kamala and they looked at Trump and they decided, well,

624
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:34,439
Speaker 1: Trump's first term that the economy the first three years

625
00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 1: was pretty good. Yes, he likely the only reason was

626
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:41,239
Speaker 1: any good as he inherited a healing economy from Obama,

627
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:44,799
Speaker 1: juiced it with tax cuts, and by the time it

628
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 1: was going to probably start slowing down in twenty twenty,

629
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:50,799
Speaker 1: COVID happened, and then COVID masked whatever weaknesses that might

630
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:55,800
Speaker 1: have been opening up in his management of the economy. Then, rightfully,

631
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 1: I think the public said, well, that's nobody's fault. Right,

632
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 1: COVID was going to create an economic challenge no matter

633
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:05,400
Speaker 1: who was president, But those swing voters came in and

634
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 1: assumed he had a core competency. So there were sort

635
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 1: of two basic promises with Donald Trump that you thought

636
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:16,319
Speaker 1: were You knew you were going to get a lot

637
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:18,880
Speaker 1: of bullshit, right, that's just who he is. And there

638
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 1: was sort of for the second presidential term, there were

639
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:23,359
Speaker 1: these groups of voters that were willing to accept it

640
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:28,480
Speaker 1: if two things, If he kept two promises, improve the

641
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:38,480
Speaker 1: economy and don't get us into any new wars. This

642
00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 1: is why this is why this is only going to

643
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 1: get worse if this turns around. There's something that happens

644
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 1: and none of us can foresee at the moment, but

645
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:55,920
Speaker 1: this is setting up to be a catastrophic political problem

646
00:40:55,920 --> 00:41:00,920
Speaker 1: for the Republicans right now, you see it. It's a

647
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 1: crack here, it's a crack there. But sometimes right it's

648
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:06,479
Speaker 1: like you see it, a couple of cracks, a couple

649
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:10,440
Speaker 1: of cracks in it, everything shatters. So whether you want

650
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:13,720
Speaker 1: to use my quicksand metaphor or my shattering glass metaphor,

651
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 1: either one applies to where this presidency is headed. All right,

652
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:24,440
Speaker 1: let's sneak in a break. And I didn't even get

653
00:41:24,440 --> 00:41:27,799
Speaker 1: to the Christine Nome craziness. In some ways, that's all

654
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:34,800
Speaker 1: part of it. We do it is there was always

655
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:40,279
Speaker 1: a point in you know, sheet in Trump's Washington, when

656
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:44,400
Speaker 1: you have everybody mad at you. Right this happened. I

657
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 1: was a part of one of these when nobody came

658
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:49,319
Speaker 1: to run Aroundney's defense. When I was critical of what

659
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 1: NBC was doing, No Republican came to her defense, right,

660
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:56,839
Speaker 1: Christine nom you know, there's this point when you when

661
00:41:56,840 --> 00:42:01,520
Speaker 1: you've lost everybody, you kind of know it. And Christy

662
00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 1: Nome lost everybody left, right, center, maga, non, maga, you

663
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:14,640
Speaker 1: name it, so it became easy to do. We'll see

664
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:19,120
Speaker 1: how Mark white Mullin does. You know he's an interesting cat.

665
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:23,799
Speaker 1: I know he's very much He follows his electorate when

666
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:28,440
Speaker 1: it comes to Trump. But he's also somebody that, if

667
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 1: you talk to many senators want He's somebody that likes

668
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:33,759
Speaker 1: to be He likes to be in the middle of negotiations.

669
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:36,840
Speaker 1: He wants to be a compromiser. He doesn't want to

670
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:42,360
Speaker 1: be seen as an obstacle to get shipped done. Is

671
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 1: he going to showcase that part of him? And we're

672
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 1: going to find out real quick. We'll see what how

673
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:54,560
Speaker 1: good his relationships are because of his relationships in the

674
00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:58,319
Speaker 1: Senate are as good as some people claim they are,

675
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:02,279
Speaker 1: And it's confirmation should coincide with the reopening of the

676
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:05,240
Speaker 1: entire DHS. But to me, this is the real test.

677
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:08,440
Speaker 1: If to me, I wouldn't confirm him if he can't

678
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:14,360
Speaker 1: get the deal. I think that's fair trade. Now, maybe

679
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:17,200
Speaker 1: Trump doesn't want to let them let him get the deal,

680
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:20,719
Speaker 1: but to me that should be you don't get your

681
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:24,439
Speaker 1: confirmation vote until you cut the deal, until you find

682
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:28,759
Speaker 1: a deal. To reopen DHS anyway, All right, let's stick

683
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:31,240
Speaker 1: in the break and when we come back, my fabulous

684
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 1: conversation with the one and only ken Burns. Do you

685
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 1: hate hangovers, We'll say goodbye to hangovers. Out of Office

686
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:44,280
Speaker 1: gives you the social buzz without the next day regret.

687
00:43:44,320 --> 00:43:46,440
Speaker 1: They're best selling. Out of office Gummanys were designed to

688
00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 1: provide a mild, relaxing buzz, boost your mood, and enhance

689
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:53,160
Speaker 1: creativity and relaxation. With five different strengths, you can tailor

690
00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 1: the dose to fit your vibe, from a gentle one

691
00:43:55,719 --> 00:44:00,279
Speaker 1: point five milligram micro dose to their newest fifteen milligram

692
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:03,840
Speaker 1: gummy for a more elevated experience. Their THHC beverages and

693
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 1: gummies are a modern, mindful alternative to a glass of

694
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 1: wine or a cocktail. And I'll tell you this, I've

695
00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 1: given up booze. I don't like the hangovers. I prefer

696
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:16,440
Speaker 1: the gummy experience. Soul is a wellness brand that believes

697
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 1: feeling good should be fun and easy. Soul specializes in

698
00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:23,320
Speaker 1: delicious hemp derived THCHC and CBD products, all designed to

699
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:26,480
Speaker 1: boost your mood and simply help you unwine. So if

700
00:44:26,520 --> 00:44:28,799
Speaker 1: you struggle to switch off at night. Sol also has

701
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:31,879
Speaker 1: a variety of products specifically designed to just simply help

702
00:44:31,920 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 1: you get a better night's sleep, including their top selling

703
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:38,320
Speaker 1: sleepy gummies. It's a fan favorite for deep restorative sleep.

704
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:40,799
Speaker 1: So bring on the good vibes and treat yourself to

705
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 1: Soul today. Right now, Soul is offering my audience thirty

706
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:47,719
Speaker 1: percent off your entire order. So go to gtsold dot

707
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:51,800
Speaker 1: com use the promo code toodcast. Don't forget that code

708
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 1: that's getsold dot Com promo code todcast for thirty percent off.

709
00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:01,560
Speaker 1: Having good life insurance is incredibly important. I know from

710
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 1: personal experience. I was sixteen when my father passed away.

711
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 1: We didn't have any money. He didn't leave us in

712
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:11,520
Speaker 1: the best shape. My mother, single mother, now widow, myself

713
00:45:11,600 --> 00:45:13,360
Speaker 1: sixteen trying to figure out how am I going to

714
00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:16,560
Speaker 1: pay for college and lo and behold, my dad had

715
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:19,800
Speaker 1: one life insurance policy that we found wasn't a lot,

716
00:45:20,160 --> 00:45:22,880
Speaker 1: but it was important at the time, and it's why

717
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:26,239
Speaker 1: I was able to go to college. Little did he

718
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:30,040
Speaker 1: know how important that would be in that moment. Well

719
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:32,239
Speaker 1: guess what. That's why I am here to tell you

720
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:35,200
Speaker 1: about Etho's life they can provide you with peace of

721
00:45:35,239 --> 00:45:38,680
Speaker 1: mind knowing your family is protected even if the worst

722
00:45:38,719 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 1: comes to pass. Ethos is an online platform that makes

723
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:45,360
Speaker 1: getting life insurance fast and easy, all designed to protect

724
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:49,400
Speaker 1: your family's future in minutes, not months. There's no complicated process,

725
00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:53,080
Speaker 1: and it's one hundred percent online. There's no medical exam

726
00:45:53,200 --> 00:45:56,360
Speaker 1: require you just answer a few health questions online. You

727
00:45:56,360 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 1: can get a quote in as little as ten minutes,

728
00:45:58,200 --> 00:46:01,280
Speaker 1: and you can get same day coverage without ever leaving

729
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:04,240
Speaker 1: your home. You can get up to three million dollars

730
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:06,440
Speaker 1: in coverage, and some policies start as low as two

731
00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 1: dollars a day that would be billed monthly. As of

732
00:46:09,640 --> 00:46:12,800
Speaker 1: March twenty twenty five, Business Insider named Ethos the number

733
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:17,160
Speaker 1: one no medical exam instant life insurance provider. So protect

734
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:20,600
Speaker 1: your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get your free

735
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:24,920
Speaker 1: quoted ethos dot com slash chuck. So again, that's Ethos

736
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:29,600
Speaker 1: dot com slash chuck. Application times may vary and the

737
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:32,799
Speaker 1: rates themselves may vary as well, but trust me, life

738
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:35,600
Speaker 1: insurance is something you should really think about it, especially

739
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:43,319
Speaker 1: if you've got a growing family. I could have gone

740
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 1: another hour with ken burns I'm sure most of you

741
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:49,759
Speaker 1: would have stuck right with me, and we did. But

742
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:51,840
Speaker 1: better to preserve that relationship with them, So maybe I

743
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:53,759
Speaker 1: can get them back almost once a year. That would

744
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 1: be the real treat if I could get if I

745
00:46:55,520 --> 00:46:58,320
Speaker 1: could guarantee Ken Burns once a year on the podcast,

746
00:46:58,400 --> 00:47:01,960
Speaker 1: I think I would, I'd feel pretty good about myself

747
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:07,920
Speaker 1: on that one. I'm looking forward to America two fifty.

748
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:10,880
Speaker 1: I know that there's you know, it's a fraught time politically.

749
00:47:10,960 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 1: Guess what the bi centennial in nineteen seventy six, which

750
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:15,279
Speaker 1: I'm not going to pretend I had any memory of,

751
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:19,000
Speaker 1: I was for also was happening at a time all

752
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:22,800
Speaker 1: right questioning. You know, we a lot of weakness in

753
00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:26,120
Speaker 1: the American presidency, a lot of concern, there, a lot

754
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:29,920
Speaker 1: of a lot of you know, is America. Our economy

755
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 1: was weak, and you know, it was a moment of weakness,

756
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:38,239
Speaker 1: and yet and yet there was a there was still

757
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:41,960
Speaker 1: unity because the hope for a more perfect union was

758
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:43,839
Speaker 1: still out there. And I think we should still take

759
00:47:43,880 --> 00:47:45,640
Speaker 1: a look at America two fifty as I hope for

760
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 1: a more perfect union and what I really hope people

761
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:50,200
Speaker 1: use America to fifty to do is to start thinking

762
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:53,880
Speaker 1: about ways we can update the democracy. It needs updating.

763
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:55,759
Speaker 1: We've talked about it. I'm not going to run my

764
00:47:55,840 --> 00:47:58,480
Speaker 1: list now we've got I've done it before, I will

765
00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:02,640
Speaker 1: do it again. But I'm looking forward to it. I

766
00:48:02,680 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 1: got to. I went to New York for the one

767
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:08,719
Speaker 1: hundredth anniversary of New York of New York of the

768
00:48:08,719 --> 00:48:13,960
Speaker 1: Statue of Liberty. Easily it's it is the second greatest

769
00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:17,880
Speaker 1: fireworks display I've ever seen, because the greatest fireworks display

770
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:20,520
Speaker 1: that I ever see happens every single year in the

771
00:48:20,600 --> 00:48:23,799
Speaker 1: nation's capital. And I promise you, once you see that

772
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:27,919
Speaker 1: fireworks display, you will never want to see another Fourth

773
00:48:27,960 --> 00:48:31,960
Speaker 1: of July fireworks display because every single one pales in comparison.

774
00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:34,120
Speaker 1: The only one that came close was that New York

775
00:48:34,680 --> 00:48:37,040
Speaker 1: was when they were all those fireworks display for the

776
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:40,000
Speaker 1: Statue of Liberty when it turned one hundred, and you

777
00:48:40,040 --> 00:48:45,080
Speaker 1: had I think twelve different ships launching identical fireworks displays,

778
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:52,120
Speaker 1: and it was pretty cool. So i've and I still

779
00:48:52,160 --> 00:48:56,720
Speaker 1: have a hole. My father was a coin collector because

780
00:48:56,760 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 1: you know a lot of there were a lot of

781
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:03,960
Speaker 1: the and he I have all these bisentennial mint coins

782
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:06,399
Speaker 1: from the mint, you know, first off the line, those

783
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:13,120
Speaker 1: little things. My father was obsessed with collecting bi centennial quarters.

784
00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:15,760
Speaker 1: I think I still have a pile of bisentennial quarters.

785
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 1: That's something. Man. If you find a bi centennial quarter

786
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:23,640
Speaker 1: in in uh, in real life, uh, these days, you've

787
00:49:23,640 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 1: really found something. It's like finding that or an old

788
00:49:26,600 --> 00:49:29,759
Speaker 1: weedy penny where it was not the Lincoln memorial on

789
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 1: the back, but but but two grains, uh, two pieces

790
00:49:32,680 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 1: of two grains of wheat. I wonder what is less

791
00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:40,160
Speaker 1: common to find? I mean these days with change? Right,

792
00:49:41,600 --> 00:49:46,400
Speaker 1: who who's paying in cash? Let alone getting getting much change?

793
00:49:46,800 --> 00:49:50,640
Speaker 1: All right, speaking of the past, let's jump into the

794
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:59,759
Speaker 1: toodcast time machine. So this was an interesting week in

795
00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:03,320
Speaker 1: his coming up because there's two anniversaries that I decided

796
00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:08,200
Speaker 1: to merge into one and to talk about how communication

797
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 1: technology changed leadership, not just in America, but leadership in general.

798
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:19,840
Speaker 1: So there are certain inventions that quietly rearrange power. The

799
00:50:19,840 --> 00:50:24,520
Speaker 1: printing press, the telegraph, the internet. Sometimes the shift doesn't

800
00:50:24,560 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 1: happen when the technology is invented. It happens when someone

801
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:32,680
Speaker 1: figures out how to use it. So take this week

802
00:50:32,719 --> 00:50:39,160
Speaker 1: in history. Imagine it's Sunday night, March twelfth, nineteen thirty three,

803
00:50:39,400 --> 00:50:41,879
Speaker 1: across the United States, families are gathering in their living

804
00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:47,279
Speaker 1: rooms around wooden radio cabinets. Banks have been closed for

805
00:50:47,320 --> 00:50:51,800
Speaker 1: a week. At this point, the financial system has essentially frozen.

806
00:50:53,560 --> 00:50:56,200
Speaker 1: People aren't sure whether the money in their bank accounts

807
00:50:56,520 --> 00:51:00,279
Speaker 1: is even still there. And then the President of the

808
00:51:00,360 --> 00:51:07,920
Speaker 1: United States begins speaking, not delivering a speech, talking my friends,

809
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:10,040
Speaker 1: I want to talk for a few minutes with the

810
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:16,800
Speaker 1: people of the United States about banking. FRANKN. Roosevelt's voice

811
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:21,400
Speaker 1: is calm that night, even conversational in tone. For tens

812
00:51:21,400 --> 00:51:24,040
Speaker 1: of millions of Americans listening that night, it felt like

813
00:51:24,080 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 1: the President had stepped into their living room. Now rewind

814
00:51:28,040 --> 00:51:31,680
Speaker 1: two days on the calendar and fifty seven years earlier

815
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:37,520
Speaker 1: in history, to March tenth, eighteen seventy six. A scientist

816
00:51:37,640 --> 00:51:42,120
Speaker 1: named Alexander Graham Bell leans over an experimental device and

817
00:51:42,160 --> 00:51:45,840
Speaker 1: he says, as he later recorded in his lab of notebook,

818
00:51:47,160 --> 00:51:51,239
Speaker 1: mister Watson, come here, I want to see you. The

819
00:51:51,400 --> 00:51:56,080
Speaker 1: very first successful telephone call. So Bell created instant voice

820
00:51:56,080 --> 00:52:01,280
Speaker 1: communication between two people. Roosevelt would use the Excommunication revolution

821
00:52:01,440 --> 00:52:07,640
Speaker 1: radio to speak to an entire nation at once, and

822
00:52:07,680 --> 00:52:14,560
Speaker 1: once that became possible, the presidency itself would be changed forever.

823
00:52:15,520 --> 00:52:20,239
Speaker 1: Because communication technology doesn't just change how we talked, it

824
00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:27,000
Speaker 1: changes how leaders lead. Now, the story actually begins before Bell.

825
00:52:27,440 --> 00:52:30,120
Speaker 1: During the Civil War, Abraham Lincoln spent hours in the

826
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:35,480
Speaker 1: War Department's telegraph office in Washington. Telegraph wires connected the

827
00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:39,240
Speaker 1: president directly to generals in the field in real time.

828
00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:43,239
Speaker 1: The commander in chief could actually send his commands in

829
00:52:43,280 --> 00:52:49,839
Speaker 1: real time. Right for the first time in history, the

830
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:55,120
Speaker 1: actual commander in chief could influence battlefield decisions. Before the telegraph,

831
00:52:55,200 --> 00:52:58,600
Speaker 1: military orders might take days or even weeks to reach

832
00:52:58,680 --> 00:53:03,000
Speaker 1: the commanders in the field. With the telegraph, Lincoln could

833
00:53:03,000 --> 00:53:08,320
Speaker 1: read updates within minutes, and then it respond almost as quickly.

834
00:53:09,160 --> 00:53:14,319
Speaker 1: It didn't just accelerate communication. It expanded presidential reach, but

835
00:53:14,400 --> 00:53:18,080
Speaker 1: telegraph communication still required intermediaries, right, You needed operators sending

836
00:53:18,160 --> 00:53:24,760
Speaker 1: coded signals. The telephone removed all of those barriers. Probably

837
00:53:24,760 --> 00:53:27,640
Speaker 1: put some people out of work. It's a reminder new

838
00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:31,160
Speaker 1: technologies always put people out of work, but they always

839
00:53:31,200 --> 00:53:35,120
Speaker 1: create jobs we never thought of. Bell's telephone allowed people

840
00:53:35,160 --> 00:53:39,960
Speaker 1: to speak directly across distance voice instead of code conversation.

841
00:53:40,040 --> 00:53:43,759
Speaker 1: Instead of telegrams. The immediate effects were economic and diplomatic.

842
00:53:44,480 --> 00:53:52,160
Speaker 1: Businesses coordinated across cities instantly. Financial markets responded faster. Political

843
00:53:52,239 --> 00:53:56,319
Speaker 1: leaders could negotiate in real time, but the telephone still

844
00:53:56,320 --> 00:54:00,920
Speaker 1: operated one conversation at a time. It connected in an

845
00:54:00,960 --> 00:54:05,480
Speaker 1: individual to another individual. It did not yet connect leaders

846
00:54:05,480 --> 00:54:13,800
Speaker 1: to entire populations. That required broadcast technology. Enter radio radio

847
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:18,080
Speaker 1: multiplied the voice. One speaker could suddenly reach millions. Now,

848
00:54:18,160 --> 00:54:21,759
Speaker 1: Roosevelt wasn't the first president to appear on radio. Warren G.

849
00:54:21,880 --> 00:54:24,839
Speaker 1: Harding broadcast was the first president to broadcast on radio

850
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:29,000
Speaker 1: nineteen twenty two. Calvin Coolidge actually used radio fairly regularly.

851
00:54:29,680 --> 00:54:35,880
Speaker 1: Herbert Hoover did as well. But it's like dealing with television.

852
00:54:36,160 --> 00:54:39,080
Speaker 1: Kennedy wasn't first, He just was the first one to

853
00:54:39,120 --> 00:54:44,560
Speaker 1: get it. Roosevelt understood something his predecessors did not fully

854
00:54:44,640 --> 00:54:47,600
Speaker 1: grasp when it came to radio. Radio wasn't simply awaited

855
00:54:47,640 --> 00:54:51,720
Speaker 1: to just deliver speeches. It's actually a way to build trust.

856
00:54:54,400 --> 00:55:00,399
Speaker 1: The first fireside chat, right he just takes office, we're talking,

857
00:55:00,520 --> 00:55:04,400
Speaker 1: you know. He got inaugurated first week of March. That

858
00:55:04,480 --> 00:55:06,239
Speaker 1: was the last one. We ended up moving it to

859
00:55:06,280 --> 00:55:08,680
Speaker 1: January after that, but we were still inaugure in our

860
00:55:08,719 --> 00:55:11,920
Speaker 1: presidents in March. So literally this is part of his

861
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:17,960
Speaker 1: first one hundred days honeymoon period first week right, and

862
00:55:18,000 --> 00:55:23,000
Speaker 1: when he took office, the US was facing an economic catastrophe.

863
00:55:23,560 --> 00:55:26,480
Speaker 1: Banks were failing. Confidence in the financial system that evaporated.

864
00:55:27,040 --> 00:55:31,520
Speaker 1: Roosevelt declared a national bank holiday, but restoring confidence required

865
00:55:31,520 --> 00:55:34,640
Speaker 1: more than legislation. It required explanation. So that's why on

866
00:55:34,680 --> 00:55:37,440
Speaker 1: March twelfth, just days after he took the oath of office,

867
00:55:37,719 --> 00:55:41,480
Speaker 1: Roosevelt spoke directly to the country on radio. Roughly sixty

868
00:55:41,520 --> 00:55:44,960
Speaker 1: million Americans, nearly half the nation, tuned in, and he

869
00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:48,839
Speaker 1: simply explained how banks worked. He explained why they were

870
00:55:48,880 --> 00:55:54,320
Speaker 1: closing temporarily. Right. His speech was part information, part education,

871
00:55:55,680 --> 00:55:58,719
Speaker 1: and he reassured listeners was plain language. Remember this is

872
00:55:59,239 --> 00:56:01,560
Speaker 1: you got to meet people where they're at. You can't

873
00:56:01,600 --> 00:56:06,719
Speaker 1: expect them to speak your elitism. At one point, he said,

874
00:56:06,800 --> 00:56:08,680
Speaker 1: I can assure you that it is safer to keep

875
00:56:08,680 --> 00:56:11,840
Speaker 1: your money in a reopened bank than under the mattress.

876
00:56:13,360 --> 00:56:15,719
Speaker 1: The tone was not presidential in the traditional sense at

877
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:18,360
Speaker 1: the time. It was something they'd never heard from a president.

878
00:56:19,280 --> 00:56:21,520
Speaker 1: It was like hearing from their father or grandfather. It

879
00:56:21,640 --> 00:56:28,720
Speaker 1: was conversational. Presidents sounded less like some distant authority figure

880
00:56:30,000 --> 00:56:33,360
Speaker 1: and more like the well informed, nice gentleman next door,

881
00:56:34,560 --> 00:56:40,319
Speaker 1: and that intimacy changed expectations. The presidency had already been

882
00:56:40,600 --> 00:56:44,800
Speaker 1: evolving towards a more personal role. Andrew Jackson built direct

883
00:56:44,800 --> 00:56:48,719
Speaker 1: political loyalty through newspapers. Teddy Roosevelt dominated press coverage and

884
00:56:48,760 --> 00:56:52,200
Speaker 1: described the presidency as a bully pulpit, a phrase we

885
00:56:52,239 --> 00:56:56,880
Speaker 1: still use today. Woodrow Wilson pioneered presidential press conferences and

886
00:56:56,960 --> 00:57:00,520
Speaker 1: personal appeals to the public, but he always needed he

887
00:57:00,600 --> 00:57:03,920
Speaker 1: was always having to. Both he and Roosevelt, while they

888
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:07,520
Speaker 1: understood trying to talk over the press, still needed the

889
00:57:07,560 --> 00:57:10,640
Speaker 1: press to let the public know what they were saying.

890
00:57:11,840 --> 00:57:15,640
Speaker 1: Radio changed all of that. Radio changed the scale. For

891
00:57:15,719 --> 00:57:18,040
Speaker 1: the first time, a president could speak directly to the

892
00:57:18,160 --> 00:57:23,720
Speaker 1: entire nation simultaneously without any filter, without newspapers filtering it,

893
00:57:24,080 --> 00:57:28,160
Speaker 1: without intermediaries trying to interpret the words, and that scale

894
00:57:28,240 --> 00:57:34,920
Speaker 1: transformed the office itself, for good and for bad. After Roosevelt,

895
00:57:34,960 --> 00:57:38,280
Speaker 1: Americans expected their presidents not just to govern, but to

896
00:57:38,320 --> 00:57:44,320
Speaker 1: communicate constantly. Ever since then, Right the tallest guy wins

897
00:57:45,360 --> 00:57:51,040
Speaker 1: the one who looks best on TV wins. Suddenly, the

898
00:57:51,040 --> 00:57:54,240
Speaker 1: ability to communicate and what we believe gives people the

899
00:57:54,280 --> 00:57:58,720
Speaker 1: ability to communicate mattered more than anything else when it

900
00:57:58,760 --> 00:58:03,360
Speaker 1: came to electing our presidents. Now here's a truism. Every

901
00:58:03,400 --> 00:58:11,760
Speaker 1: technology resets leadership, and once that relationship existed, each new

902
00:58:11,760 --> 00:58:18,480
Speaker 1: communication technology reshaped leadership again. Television created visual the visual presidency.

903
00:58:19,120 --> 00:58:21,560
Speaker 1: I think John F. Kennedy in the first televised debates.

904
00:58:22,400 --> 00:58:25,200
Speaker 1: Cable news created the permanent media cycle. The fact that

905
00:58:25,240 --> 00:58:28,040
Speaker 1: this is we don't just check in on a president

906
00:58:28,080 --> 00:58:31,640
Speaker 1: once a week anymore. Later, presidents had to navigate the

907
00:58:31,760 --> 00:58:36,920
Speaker 1: environment constantly. Digital technology reshaped campaign George W. Bush used

908
00:58:36,960 --> 00:58:41,280
Speaker 1: digital tools for sophisticated voter targeting. Barack Obama used the

909
00:58:41,280 --> 00:58:46,200
Speaker 1: Internet to build organizing networks, then game social media. Donald

910
00:58:46,200 --> 00:58:49,000
Speaker 1: Trump became the first president to use social media as

911
00:58:49,040 --> 00:58:53,360
Speaker 1: a primary channel for communicating directly with the public. Each

912
00:58:53,480 --> 00:58:59,320
Speaker 1: technological shift removed more intermediaries. Each shift strengthened direct connection

913
00:58:59,640 --> 00:59:04,960
Speaker 1: between leader and audience. And this didn't just change politics.

914
00:59:05,720 --> 00:59:10,080
Speaker 1: This same transformation has happened in the corporate boardrooms. Took

915
00:59:10,120 --> 00:59:12,880
Speaker 1: a little longer. For much of the twentieth century, CEOs

916
00:59:12,880 --> 00:59:17,440
Speaker 1: were largely invisible figures. They manage companies, they spoke mainly

917
00:59:17,440 --> 00:59:20,800
Speaker 1: to boards and investors. Public communication was seen as secondary.

918
00:59:21,760 --> 00:59:26,560
Speaker 1: Today that expectation is completely flipped. If you don't have

919
00:59:26,600 --> 00:59:31,480
Speaker 1: a CEO that can go on CNBC and be charming interesting,

920
00:59:33,680 --> 00:59:35,640
Speaker 1: you're going to be considered a bad CEO no matter

921
00:59:35,680 --> 00:59:40,360
Speaker 1: how well you manage people. And now the modern CEO

922
00:59:40,760 --> 00:59:45,120
Speaker 1: is expected to appear everywhere, communicate constantly, earnings calls, interviews,

923
00:59:45,160 --> 00:59:50,560
Speaker 1: investor conferences, social media. Leadership itself has become partly a

924
00:59:50,600 --> 00:59:56,600
Speaker 1: communications profession. The communication revolution didn't just reshape the presidency.

925
00:59:56,640 --> 01:00:00,520
Speaker 1: It has reshaped how we even define what leadership. It means.

926
01:00:02,080 --> 01:00:04,800
Speaker 1: If you can't communicate, you're no longer considered a great leader.

927
01:00:05,640 --> 01:00:09,400
Speaker 1: And most of our great leaders could communicate, but not

928
01:00:09,440 --> 01:00:13,120
Speaker 1: all great communicators can lead. And that's where you've got

929
01:00:13,160 --> 01:00:16,160
Speaker 1: to be careful, just assuming every great communicator is also

930
01:00:16,200 --> 01:00:23,640
Speaker 1: a great leader. So what's consequence of all this? Once

931
01:00:23,640 --> 01:00:27,240
Speaker 1: communication becomes centralized in a single leader, power follows Congress

932
01:00:27,240 --> 01:00:30,680
Speaker 1: debates collectively. This is why Congress has become I think

933
01:00:30,720 --> 01:00:34,600
Speaker 1: the acceleration of the weakness of Congress has almost is

934
01:00:35,280 --> 01:00:39,640
Speaker 1: you know, it is coincided with the increase of personalized

935
01:00:39,640 --> 01:00:44,120
Speaker 1: communications between the presidency and the public. Right the Congress,

936
01:00:44,360 --> 01:00:46,120
Speaker 1: the House was supposed to be the people's house, and

937
01:00:46,200 --> 01:00:49,520
Speaker 1: yet the president is the one that seems more connected

938
01:00:49,520 --> 01:00:51,880
Speaker 1: to the public, even though the public doesn't elect them.

939
01:00:52,320 --> 01:00:55,280
Speaker 1: The public actually elects intermediaries that elect them and call

940
01:00:55,320 --> 01:01:00,280
Speaker 1: them electors. But this is the power of communications. Congers

941
01:01:00,280 --> 01:01:03,880
Speaker 1: speaks collectively, a president speaks alone. Congress moves slowly. A

942
01:01:03,920 --> 01:01:08,440
Speaker 1: president communicates instantly. Technology didn't change the constitution, but it

943
01:01:08,520 --> 01:01:13,000
Speaker 1: did change the political gravity of our system. And we

944
01:01:13,080 --> 01:01:17,880
Speaker 1: haven't fully figured out. Congress hasn't fully figured out how

945
01:01:17,920 --> 01:01:22,440
Speaker 1: to reassert itself in this era of a new communications age.

946
01:01:23,120 --> 01:01:26,520
Speaker 1: And we've now arguably had four iterations of this era

947
01:01:26,600 --> 01:01:31,120
Speaker 1: of the communications ape. So what's the lesson. Well, between

948
01:01:31,120 --> 01:01:33,800
Speaker 1: March tenth, eighteen seventy six and March twelfth, nineteen thirty three,

949
01:01:33,960 --> 01:01:38,920
Speaker 1: communication evolved from private conversation to national conversation. Bell made

950
01:01:38,960 --> 01:01:46,320
Speaker 1: voice communication immediate, Roosevelt made mass political communication necessary. Every

951
01:01:46,320 --> 01:01:49,960
Speaker 1: communication revolution since has pushed that relationship further. And if

952
01:01:50,000 --> 01:01:52,880
Speaker 1: you look at our politics today, where presidential social media

953
01:01:52,920 --> 01:01:56,560
Speaker 1: posts can move markets or announce policy. Before agencies or

954
01:01:56,600 --> 01:02:01,240
Speaker 1: even briefed. You can see that the transformation Roosevelt began

955
01:02:01,440 --> 01:02:07,320
Speaker 1: is still accelerating. I mean, I don't I fear the

956
01:02:07,360 --> 01:02:11,680
Speaker 1: idea of direct democracy, immediacy President going out, I'm gonna

957
01:02:11,680 --> 01:02:14,000
Speaker 1: pull everybody. You tell me what decision you want me

958
01:02:14,040 --> 01:02:19,240
Speaker 1: to make, and within five minutes the public response, does

959
01:02:19,280 --> 01:02:22,400
Speaker 1: that politician then do what they say? The fact is

960
01:02:22,440 --> 01:02:27,880
Speaker 1: we're getting awfully close to doing those kind of performative tricks.

961
01:02:29,640 --> 01:02:34,040
Speaker 1: Bell made communication immediate, Roosevelt made it political, and we're

962
01:02:34,080 --> 01:02:37,800
Speaker 1: still living inside that transformation. So there you go. I

963
01:02:37,840 --> 01:02:43,560
Speaker 1: took two fascinating historic anniversaries this week March tenth and

964
01:02:43,600 --> 01:02:47,720
Speaker 1: March twelfth, the Bell phone call and the first fireside chat,

965
01:02:49,720 --> 01:02:53,480
Speaker 1: and we decided to make two stops in the podcast

966
01:02:53,480 --> 01:03:04,480
Speaker 1: time mission. Let's get to some letters as Chuck ass

967
01:03:04,640 --> 01:03:07,840
Speaker 1: Chuck ask Chuck, what have we got here today? Let's

968
01:03:07,880 --> 01:03:10,479
Speaker 1: take a look. Let's get started here. First question comes

969
01:03:10,520 --> 01:03:15,520
Speaker 1: from Tom Hurr. No, not that Tom Hurr. If you're

970
01:03:15,560 --> 01:03:18,120
Speaker 1: a Cardinals fan and wondering if you're at we're talking

971
01:03:18,160 --> 01:03:20,080
Speaker 1: about the form of your former second basement, we are not.

972
01:03:21,960 --> 01:03:24,640
Speaker 1: Here's Tom's question, how many similarities can you find between

973
01:03:25,160 --> 01:03:28,040
Speaker 1: the Admiral Yamamoto lead attack on Pearl Harbor and the

974
01:03:28,080 --> 01:03:31,280
Speaker 1: Trump led attack on Iran surprise attack while diplomatic negotiations

975
01:03:31,280 --> 01:03:33,880
Speaker 1: were ongoing, no declaration of war, the deaths of thousands,

976
01:03:33,920 --> 01:03:37,400
Speaker 1: including many civilians, and initial tactical success that led to

977
01:03:37,440 --> 01:03:41,040
Speaker 1: a strategic disaster to be determined. When did a despictable

978
01:03:41,200 --> 01:03:43,320
Speaker 1: act of treachery on a date that lives in infamy

979
01:03:43,320 --> 01:03:46,880
Speaker 1: become a model for US military strategy? Would he like

980
01:03:46,920 --> 01:03:52,320
Speaker 1: to be remembered as Donald Trump? Obono Trump motto? That's

981
01:03:52,320 --> 01:03:54,280
Speaker 1: a tough I see what you're doing there. This is

982
01:03:54,360 --> 01:03:57,960
Speaker 1: tough for a guy like me to spend to spit out.

983
01:03:58,200 --> 01:04:04,160
Speaker 1: Thanks for the great podcast. Uh wow, that's uh, that's

984
01:04:04,200 --> 01:04:12,640
Speaker 1: quite the comparison. I I think I don't know if

985
01:04:12,640 --> 01:04:15,360
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Pearl Harbor as the as the comparison,

986
01:04:17,040 --> 01:04:23,400
Speaker 1: but it is if you when you look at it's

987
01:04:23,480 --> 01:04:25,720
Speaker 1: I guess it's you know, when you try to compare

988
01:04:26,400 --> 01:04:31,120
Speaker 1: how he's started a war with Iran to how either

989
01:04:31,120 --> 01:04:34,360
Speaker 1: of the Bush presidency started wars with the rock and

990
01:04:34,400 --> 01:04:39,680
Speaker 1: you're right, Pearl Harbor is actually a better, a better

991
01:04:39,720 --> 01:04:42,640
Speaker 1: comparison than and then either of the previous Iraq wars.

992
01:04:42,640 --> 01:04:47,080
Speaker 1: Because the previous Iraq wars, the Bush presidencies did weird

993
01:04:47,120 --> 01:04:52,919
Speaker 1: things like a galvanized the American public, make their case

994
01:04:53,000 --> 01:04:54,840
Speaker 1: to the public, make the case to the u N

995
01:04:55,360 --> 01:05:00,600
Speaker 1: make the case to Congress, allow Congress to vote, and

996
01:05:00,680 --> 01:05:06,760
Speaker 1: he did none of those things. So anyway, it's an

997
01:05:06,760 --> 01:05:11,760
Speaker 1: interesting comparison. You did a pretty good job of noting

998
01:05:11,800 --> 01:05:18,840
Speaker 1: it is iron America here, right, That's where I think

999
01:05:18,880 --> 01:05:21,120
Speaker 1: we all run out of That's where you run out

1000
01:05:21,120 --> 01:05:23,680
Speaker 1: of it. But I understand the point you're making here,

1001
01:05:23,680 --> 01:05:27,120
Speaker 1: and I think it frankly coincides with what I'm the

1002
01:05:27,160 --> 01:05:30,600
Speaker 1: point I was making up top. It's easy to start

1003
01:05:30,640 --> 01:05:33,200
Speaker 1: one of these things, it is hard to get out

1004
01:05:33,240 --> 01:05:35,680
Speaker 1: of from under it. And I think he is stuck

1005
01:05:35,840 --> 01:05:41,320
Speaker 1: in some presidential Quicksand next question comes from Chase Carmichael,

1006
01:05:41,360 --> 01:05:44,400
Speaker 1: Little Rock, Arkansas. Chase writes, did anything actually substantive come

1007
01:05:44,400 --> 01:05:47,320
Speaker 1: out of Trump's college sports roundtable last week? Been trying

1008
01:05:47,320 --> 01:05:49,000
Speaker 1: to track down the highlights, but I think the coverage

1009
01:05:49,000 --> 01:05:51,439
Speaker 1: got slightly buried under the World War Three headlines. Yes

1010
01:05:51,440 --> 01:05:53,920
Speaker 1: it did. It's hard to focus on nil reforms and

1011
01:05:53,960 --> 01:05:56,360
Speaker 1: eligibility brackets when the twenty four hour news cycle feels

1012
01:05:56,360 --> 01:06:00,479
Speaker 1: like a trailer for a full up shelter. I don't

1013
01:06:00,480 --> 01:06:04,240
Speaker 1: mean the laugh chase, but that's pretty funny. Look, I

1014
01:06:04,440 --> 01:06:08,360
Speaker 1: was gonna wait until after questions to do this, but yeah,

1015
01:06:08,440 --> 01:06:11,040
Speaker 1: I mean it was. It's a joke. Right. He didn't

1016
01:06:11,040 --> 01:06:13,760
Speaker 1: have a single current athlete there, didn't have any current

1017
01:06:13,760 --> 01:06:15,360
Speaker 1: And if you weren't going to put current athletes there,

1018
01:06:15,400 --> 01:06:18,160
Speaker 1: how about current agents? He had former athletes there. I

1019
01:06:18,160 --> 01:06:21,200
Speaker 1: think Charlie Ward was invited. Like I said, Marco Rubio

1020
01:06:21,280 --> 01:06:23,479
Speaker 1: is the father of a college athlete. His son played

1021
01:06:23,520 --> 01:06:26,200
Speaker 1: for the Florida Gators scored a touchdown in a bowl

1022
01:06:26,200 --> 01:06:31,000
Speaker 1: game a couple of years ago. But you know, this

1023
01:06:31,160 --> 01:06:34,160
Speaker 1: was a classic case where Donald Trump remind you all

1024
01:06:34,200 --> 01:06:37,120
Speaker 1: the time he's an elitist. He surrounded himself with the

1025
01:06:37,160 --> 01:06:40,800
Speaker 1: old guard powers of college football, not the reality. Like

1026
01:06:41,320 --> 01:06:43,520
Speaker 1: you know, you should have Charles Abandon there, the guy

1027
01:06:43,560 --> 01:06:48,880
Speaker 1: who launched the lawsuit that got that legalized payments for name,

1028
01:06:48,920 --> 01:06:53,680
Speaker 1: image and likeness. So no right, and Trump wasn't there

1029
01:06:53,680 --> 01:06:57,040
Speaker 1: to listen, and he came across almost half belligerent. Well,

1030
01:06:57,080 --> 01:06:59,480
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna sign an order put everything back the

1031
01:06:59,520 --> 01:07:01,200
Speaker 1: way it used to be and then I'll get sued

1032
01:07:02,000 --> 01:07:03,920
Speaker 1: and you're just sort of shaking your head. You're not

1033
01:07:03,920 --> 01:07:05,760
Speaker 1: gonna get sued because no one's gonna take the order

1034
01:07:05,880 --> 01:07:10,800
Speaker 1: seriously at all. Look, it was a waste of time completely.

1035
01:07:11,120 --> 01:07:13,760
Speaker 1: I understand why everybody that showed up did show up,

1036
01:07:13,800 --> 01:07:17,560
Speaker 1: because you know there's you know, he will he could

1037
01:07:17,640 --> 01:07:23,000
Speaker 1: lash out. I gotta think that there was one There

1038
01:07:23,040 --> 01:07:25,200
Speaker 1: was one picture of Nick Saban's face at one point.

1039
01:07:25,320 --> 01:07:29,160
Speaker 1: He looks really annoyed, and you know I I got

1040
01:07:29,160 --> 01:07:30,960
Speaker 1: to see that face up close. I went to a

1041
01:07:31,040 --> 01:07:35,960
Speaker 1: National Football Foundation Hall of Fame dinner one year. It

1042
01:07:36,000 --> 01:07:41,160
Speaker 1: was the year Jimmy Johnson was inaugurated. In fact, uh, nope,

1043
01:07:41,200 --> 01:07:44,120
Speaker 1: not in this. My My Florida Studio has a my

1044
01:07:44,200 --> 01:07:48,000
Speaker 1: signed Jimmy Johnson helmet that I won in an auction

1045
01:07:48,280 --> 01:07:54,040
Speaker 1: that night there signed my hurricane helmet. Of course. I

1046
01:07:54,240 --> 01:07:58,120
Speaker 1: I don't know what I would do if somebody gave

1047
01:07:58,160 --> 01:08:03,680
Speaker 1: me sign Jimmy Johnson Dallas Cowboy paraphernalia. I probably just

1048
01:08:03,800 --> 01:08:07,160
Speaker 1: sell it. I would not keep it. As much as

1049
01:08:07,200 --> 01:08:11,840
Speaker 1: I love Jimmy that any Hurricane stuff count me in.

1050
01:08:12,000 --> 01:08:14,920
Speaker 1: And I'd probably keep some of the Dolphins stuff just

1051
01:08:14,920 --> 01:08:20,800
Speaker 1: for the little Miami Miami history sake, but I am

1052
01:08:20,800 --> 01:08:25,760
Speaker 1: going I'm rambling on here. But the point was at

1053
01:08:25,800 --> 01:08:30,800
Speaker 1: this dinner, which also was honoring some players from that year,

1054
01:08:30,840 --> 01:08:35,160
Speaker 1: and there was an Alabama player being honored, center Barrett

1055
01:08:35,439 --> 01:08:38,280
Speaker 1: somebody or other, and I can't remember last name or

1056
01:08:38,280 --> 01:08:40,160
Speaker 1: first name. Barrett was either his last name of the

1057
01:08:40,200 --> 01:08:42,519
Speaker 1: first name, I believe, so you Bama fans will know

1058
01:08:42,520 --> 01:08:46,000
Speaker 1: who I'm talking about. And the running gag of the

1059
01:08:46,240 --> 01:08:50,880
Speaker 1: entire dinner was how miserable Nick Saban was at the dinner,

1060
01:08:51,280 --> 01:08:53,519
Speaker 1: that there was nothing he hated more than just like

1061
01:08:53,880 --> 01:08:57,880
Speaker 1: being somewhere that wasn't going to accomplish anything, you know.

1062
01:08:57,920 --> 01:08:59,360
Speaker 1: And they had just won this as one of the

1063
01:08:59,439 --> 01:09:01,560
Speaker 1: years they won the national title or they had just

1064
01:09:01,640 --> 01:09:04,559
Speaker 1: qualified to be in the National title. This was a

1065
01:09:04,600 --> 01:09:06,960
Speaker 1: December dinner, so they, you know, it was sort of

1066
01:09:06,960 --> 01:09:10,599
Speaker 1: that dark period right after the season. They were getting

1067
01:09:10,640 --> 01:09:13,519
Speaker 1: ready to play in the national title game. I think

1068
01:09:13,600 --> 01:09:16,000
Speaker 1: this is pre fourteen playoff even we're probably at the

1069
01:09:16,000 --> 01:09:22,799
Speaker 1: two team playoffs. And it was the joke the whole time,

1070
01:09:23,439 --> 01:09:25,800
Speaker 1: you know, and you'd look at him and he really was.

1071
01:09:25,880 --> 01:09:28,000
Speaker 1: He was just sort of hem and han and Anyway,

1072
01:09:28,320 --> 01:09:30,559
Speaker 1: when I saw that face at the at the White

1073
01:09:30,560 --> 01:09:34,400
Speaker 1: House roundtable that they held last week, I was like,

1074
01:09:34,439 --> 01:09:36,960
Speaker 1: I've seen that Saban face. That's the I can't believe

1075
01:09:37,000 --> 01:09:43,080
Speaker 1: I'm stuck at this stupid effing thing face. But I'm

1076
01:09:43,120 --> 01:09:46,479
Speaker 1: sure you know you don't. You don't know. The President

1077
01:09:46,560 --> 01:09:50,519
Speaker 1: has the power to convene. In theory, he could play

1078
01:09:51,439 --> 01:09:54,439
Speaker 1: a great role here. But when you only talk to

1079
01:09:54,560 --> 01:09:57,920
Speaker 1: one side of the fence, and everybody in that room

1080
01:09:58,120 --> 01:10:03,559
Speaker 1: doesn't want to pay the players, they pay lip service

1081
01:10:03,600 --> 01:10:05,639
Speaker 1: to it, but none of them want to be paying

1082
01:10:05,680 --> 01:10:09,680
Speaker 1: the players, So you're just not dealing in the in

1083
01:10:09,720 --> 01:10:15,160
Speaker 1: reality of the situation itself. So it was a complete

1084
01:10:15,200 --> 01:10:19,280
Speaker 1: and utter waste of time. The only way this gets

1085
01:10:19,280 --> 01:10:23,559
Speaker 1: solved is Congress. Congress. You know, I do think Cody

1086
01:10:23,600 --> 01:10:27,600
Speaker 1: Campbell the big he's one of the big funders of

1087
01:10:27,600 --> 01:10:29,840
Speaker 1: Texas text football program. But he's the guy that's been

1088
01:10:30,160 --> 01:10:34,160
Speaker 1: underwriting this television campaign about lobbying Congress to change the

1089
01:10:34,200 --> 01:10:40,040
Speaker 1: Broadcasting the Sports Broadcasting Act that essentially would allow all

1090
01:10:40,080 --> 01:10:43,560
Speaker 1: the college football schools to negotiate their media rights collectively,

1091
01:10:44,720 --> 01:10:47,679
Speaker 1: more like how the NFL does it, rather than conference

1092
01:10:47,680 --> 01:10:51,080
Speaker 1: by conference. And is my old friend con Carol tweeted

1093
01:10:51,080 --> 01:10:53,960
Speaker 1: this the other day and I was like, he just

1094
01:10:54,200 --> 01:10:58,960
Speaker 1: put it so succinctly when when somebody was making the

1095
01:10:59,040 --> 01:11:04,639
Speaker 1: argument about collective versus each conference negotiating its media rights,

1096
01:11:04,640 --> 01:11:07,559
Speaker 1: he goes, imagine in the NFL, if each division we're

1097
01:11:07,600 --> 01:11:11,519
Speaker 1: negotiating its own media rights, right, the NFC, so the

1098
01:11:11,560 --> 01:11:14,840
Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants versus the AFC

1099
01:11:14,920 --> 01:11:19,519
Speaker 1: South with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts. Right, Like, who's

1100
01:11:19,640 --> 01:11:23,880
Speaker 1: media rights? Right? Who's going to get the bigger deal? Right?

1101
01:11:23,880 --> 01:11:28,160
Speaker 1: That'd be stupid to be bad business. Well for college athletics.

1102
01:11:28,200 --> 01:11:30,920
Speaker 1: It is bad business to do this by conference. And

1103
01:11:30,960 --> 01:11:34,479
Speaker 1: the only entities that benefit from doing this are the

1104
01:11:34,520 --> 01:11:37,160
Speaker 1: media companies who don't want to pay fair market value

1105
01:11:37,240 --> 01:11:41,400
Speaker 1: for these sports media rights. And right now, the two

1106
01:11:41,479 --> 01:11:46,080
Speaker 1: biggest media entities have the two biggest conferences as they're

1107
01:11:46,479 --> 01:11:54,360
Speaker 1: essentially they're surrogates. They're bought off, right, you know, the

1108
01:11:54,960 --> 01:11:57,040
Speaker 1: Big ten and the SEC get to be the tallest

1109
01:11:57,080 --> 01:12:02,200
Speaker 1: little people because of this system them. They'd still be

1110
01:12:03,720 --> 01:12:07,000
Speaker 1: probably on the merits B have a majority of the

1111
01:12:07,040 --> 01:12:13,439
Speaker 1: power teams if they all pulled their TV rights together,

1112
01:12:14,640 --> 01:12:16,600
Speaker 1: but the SEC and the Big Ten like creating this

1113
01:12:16,720 --> 01:12:20,400
Speaker 1: velvet rope where fewer teams have an opportunity to be

1114
01:12:20,520 --> 01:12:25,519
Speaker 1: involved in the elite level of college football. All I

1115
01:12:25,520 --> 01:12:28,599
Speaker 1: would say is is if you believe in a fairly

1116
01:12:28,640 --> 01:12:32,439
Speaker 1: free market, the current system of college football is not

1117
01:12:32,479 --> 01:12:34,120
Speaker 1: a free market at all. And yes, I know the

1118
01:12:34,200 --> 01:12:37,760
Speaker 1: NFL is not a free market as far as how

1119
01:12:37,800 --> 01:12:41,200
Speaker 1: that structure is concerned, But how the NFL takes its

1120
01:12:41,760 --> 01:12:47,480
Speaker 1: media rights to market is maximizing its value and its leverage,

1121
01:12:47,840 --> 01:12:49,880
Speaker 1: and college sports does not do that at the moment.

1122
01:12:51,320 --> 01:12:56,400
Speaker 1: So no chase. And like I said, the timing of

1123
01:12:56,439 --> 01:12:59,280
Speaker 1: it right, it was already awkward, It was already unlikely

1124
01:12:59,320 --> 01:13:02,080
Speaker 1: to be anything up than a than an attempt by

1125
01:13:02,120 --> 01:13:05,200
Speaker 1: Trump to insert himself. I mean, you know, I don't

1126
01:13:05,240 --> 01:13:06,760
Speaker 1: mean I'm going to continue to go off on a

1127
01:13:06,800 --> 01:13:10,960
Speaker 1: tangent here on this, but real quick, you know I've

1128
01:13:11,800 --> 01:13:14,679
Speaker 1: whenever I get a chance with these presidents, I do.

1129
01:13:14,760 --> 01:13:17,840
Speaker 1: I do this with all politicians. I want to find

1130
01:13:17,840 --> 01:13:19,760
Speaker 1: out if they claim to be a sportsman, if they're

1131
01:13:19,800 --> 01:13:22,439
Speaker 1: really a sports fan. And for me, it's a little

1132
01:13:22,439 --> 01:13:24,640
Speaker 1: bit of it's way I find out if somebody's a

1133
01:13:24,680 --> 01:13:27,960
Speaker 1: bullshit or not. I've done this with politicians. I've done

1134
01:13:28,000 --> 01:13:32,040
Speaker 1: this with multiple presidents, where you know, you just want

1135
01:13:32,040 --> 01:13:36,160
Speaker 1: to find out what's the level of their fandom. Right

1136
01:13:36,800 --> 01:13:40,280
Speaker 1: with Obama, I've had both fascinating experience talking to him

1137
01:13:40,280 --> 01:13:44,120
Speaker 1: about basketball and college basketball where he goes real deep. Right,

1138
01:13:44,439 --> 01:13:46,920
Speaker 1: it is clear he is watching more games than I'm watching.

1139
01:13:47,880 --> 01:13:49,479
Speaker 1: This was even when he was president. This was what

1140
01:13:49,520 --> 01:13:51,320
Speaker 1: he was doing at night, you know, in between I

1141
01:13:51,320 --> 01:13:55,320
Speaker 1: think read reading policy papers. But ask him about baseball.

1142
01:13:55,400 --> 01:13:57,800
Speaker 1: I remember one time asking him about a Key White

1143
01:13:57,840 --> 01:14:01,479
Speaker 1: Sox trade. This was evolving his favorite team. He didn't know,

1144
01:14:01,560 --> 01:14:03,639
Speaker 1: he didn't paid attention to the trade. I don't think

1145
01:14:03,640 --> 01:14:07,920
Speaker 1: he was a huge baseball fan. George W. Bush. He

1146
01:14:08,000 --> 01:14:11,639
Speaker 1: really knew his baseball, don't. I never got a chance

1147
01:14:11,640 --> 01:14:13,800
Speaker 1: to quiz him on other sports, and he's never never

1148
01:14:13,800 --> 01:14:15,840
Speaker 1: heard him talk too much about other sports. He goes

1149
01:14:15,880 --> 01:14:19,320
Speaker 1: to a lot of SMU basketball games, so we do

1150
01:14:19,400 --> 01:14:22,920
Speaker 1: see him, we do see him there from Afar, But

1151
01:14:22,960 --> 01:14:25,000
Speaker 1: boy does he go deep on baseball. He knows who

1152
01:14:25,120 --> 01:14:27,759
Speaker 1: the top prospect. He doesn't just know major league teams.

1153
01:14:27,760 --> 01:14:32,240
Speaker 1: He knows, he's paid attention to that, the top ten prospects.

1154
01:14:32,479 --> 01:14:35,760
Speaker 1: He always knows, not just with the Rangers. It was

1155
01:14:35,920 --> 01:14:38,880
Speaker 1: very simp of the way Obama knew basketball college and pro,

1156
01:14:39,720 --> 01:14:45,520
Speaker 1: the way Bush knew baseball. Bill Clinton voracious sports appetite.

1157
01:14:47,040 --> 01:14:53,080
Speaker 1: Basketball for sure, Football very very much college oriented. Because

1158
01:14:53,120 --> 01:14:57,839
Speaker 1: of Arkansas, there's no pro teams there. With Donald Trump,

1159
01:14:59,720 --> 01:15:01,479
Speaker 1: any of you that have ever spent time with him,

1160
01:15:01,479 --> 01:15:03,639
Speaker 1: if you've done the same, you've probably had the same experience.

1161
01:15:04,280 --> 01:15:07,040
Speaker 1: It's shocking how little he actually understands the game itself.

1162
01:15:07,760 --> 01:15:12,719
Speaker 1: He knows the celebrities, the players that have hit celebrity status,

1163
01:15:12,760 --> 01:15:16,280
Speaker 1: right Tom Brady. He knows the owners because he wanted

1164
01:15:16,280 --> 01:15:19,400
Speaker 1: to be an owner. There's that great line during his

1165
01:15:19,479 --> 01:15:22,840
Speaker 1: first campaign for the presidency when he said he was

1166
01:15:22,880 --> 01:15:24,840
Speaker 1: asked about what he knew about NASCAR, and he didn't

1167
01:15:24,840 --> 01:15:26,680
Speaker 1: really know anything about Nascar, But he goes, but I

1168
01:15:26,720 --> 01:15:30,559
Speaker 1: know the owners. I know some of the owners. And

1169
01:15:30,600 --> 01:15:35,080
Speaker 1: even now you see it's very rudimentary, there's no right

1170
01:15:36,439 --> 01:15:39,160
Speaker 1: the level of knowledge about the game itself, and it

1171
01:15:39,280 --> 01:15:43,240
Speaker 1: really you know, he really exposed his ignorance about football

1172
01:15:43,280 --> 01:15:46,559
Speaker 1: when he's been complaining about the kickoff rule, and you're like,

1173
01:15:47,040 --> 01:15:49,320
Speaker 1: have you not paid attention that we hadn't actually had

1174
01:15:49,360 --> 01:15:54,240
Speaker 1: any active kickoffs for about ten years ever since everybody

1175
01:15:54,280 --> 01:15:55,960
Speaker 1: figured out it was just easier to kick it out

1176
01:15:56,000 --> 01:16:00,439
Speaker 1: of bounds and don't risk a run back, don't risk

1177
01:16:00,439 --> 01:16:05,920
Speaker 1: giving up good field position. And now we have this

1178
01:16:06,000 --> 01:16:09,839
Speaker 1: new rule that actually encourages kickoff returns, and he complains

1179
01:16:09,840 --> 01:16:11,760
Speaker 1: about it like it's somehow weak or woke. I mean,

1180
01:16:11,800 --> 01:16:16,160
Speaker 1: it really was a he was. You know, sometimes you're like, dude,

1181
01:16:16,600 --> 01:16:19,600
Speaker 1: you have no clothes on. You are literally making a

1182
01:16:19,680 --> 01:16:22,920
Speaker 1: point that is the exact opposite of the point you

1183
01:16:22,920 --> 01:16:28,920
Speaker 1: think you're making. So I know some of you think

1184
01:16:28,960 --> 01:16:30,800
Speaker 1: all I do is pile on Trump, But man, I'm

1185
01:16:30,800 --> 01:16:33,040
Speaker 1: telling you, the guy doesn't know anything about actual sports.

1186
01:16:33,800 --> 01:16:36,120
Speaker 1: He knows about sports the way he knows about Hollywood.

1187
01:16:36,120 --> 01:16:41,080
Speaker 1: He knows names, all right, but he's not really a fan.

1188
01:16:41,720 --> 01:16:44,880
Speaker 1: He doesn't really know these games. And anybody who knows

1189
01:16:44,920 --> 01:16:47,840
Speaker 1: him and who's had these conversations with him, you know

1190
01:16:47,920 --> 01:16:52,320
Speaker 1: I'm right about this. You just can't say it. Yeah,

1191
01:16:52,320 --> 01:17:07,559
Speaker 1: I can't. Next question comes from Matt from Arlington, Texas.

1192
01:17:07,600 --> 01:17:11,200
Speaker 1: All Right, how about them Cowboys? Yeah? How about them? Chuck?

1193
01:17:11,280 --> 01:17:13,080
Speaker 1: Huge fan of the podcast. In your analysis, I've noticed

1194
01:17:13,080 --> 01:17:15,640
Speaker 1: some parallels between John Fetterman's trajectory in the Senate and

1195
01:17:15,720 --> 01:17:18,719
Speaker 1: Kirsten Cinemas both sometimes seemed willing to buck their party

1196
01:17:18,720 --> 01:17:22,759
Speaker 1: spase in ways that complicate reelection check. Am I off base? Nope?

1197
01:17:23,200 --> 01:17:25,479
Speaker 1: Or have the parties become so polarized that even occasional

1198
01:17:25,479 --> 01:17:28,559
Speaker 1: breaks from the base carry real political risk. Keep up

1199
01:17:28,600 --> 01:17:31,639
Speaker 1: the good work back from Marlington, Texas? Yeah, I think

1200
01:17:31,640 --> 01:17:33,880
Speaker 1: those are That's a terri In fact, it goes deeper.

1201
01:17:33,920 --> 01:17:37,280
Speaker 1: I mean, both Vetterman and Cinema were We're not just

1202
01:17:37,320 --> 01:17:43,120
Speaker 1: seen as sort of natural Democrats, they were progressive. Kristen

1203
01:17:43,160 --> 01:17:45,080
Speaker 1: Cinema was a member of the Green Party i think

1204
01:17:45,120 --> 01:17:48,320
Speaker 1: before she became a member of the Democratic Party, and

1205
01:17:48,360 --> 01:17:50,680
Speaker 1: Fetterman was seen as a Bernie Sanders guy, not just

1206
01:17:50,760 --> 01:17:56,040
Speaker 1: any any just conventional Democrat, Pensylvania Democrat. Look, I think

1207
01:17:56,040 --> 01:17:59,080
Speaker 1: this is a real problem for both parties at this point.

1208
01:17:59,120 --> 01:18:02,040
Speaker 1: I mean, I think this is why you've got a

1209
01:18:02,080 --> 01:18:04,519
Speaker 1: guy like you know, it's a lot it's a lot

1210
01:18:04,600 --> 01:18:09,759
Speaker 1: easier to if to say what you want to say,

1211
01:18:09,760 --> 01:18:13,400
Speaker 1: that you think voters, that you think things that would

1212
01:18:13,439 --> 01:18:17,360
Speaker 1: resonate with voters, that doesn't alienate the groups, and it's

1213
01:18:17,400 --> 01:18:20,600
Speaker 1: not you know the you know, it's interesting. There was

1214
01:18:20,840 --> 01:18:22,679
Speaker 1: there's a there's a brand new NBC News pull out,

1215
01:18:22,760 --> 01:18:26,160
Speaker 1: and I'm going to go into it deeper with you

1216
01:18:26,240 --> 01:18:29,519
Speaker 1: later in the week because I like to dig into

1217
01:18:29,560 --> 01:18:31,800
Speaker 1: the cross tabs, and I haven't seen the cross tabs yet,

1218
01:18:32,160 --> 01:18:34,960
Speaker 1: but they do ask an interesting question among Republicans and

1219
01:18:35,000 --> 01:18:40,240
Speaker 1: Democrats about their vote for Congress this year, if they're

1220
01:18:40,240 --> 01:18:42,400
Speaker 1: going to participate in the primaries, and are they looking

1221
01:18:42,439 --> 01:18:45,160
Speaker 1: for candidates who agree with them more in issues or

1222
01:18:45,840 --> 01:18:49,080
Speaker 1: candidates that can win in the general election. And while

1223
01:18:49,080 --> 01:18:51,320
Speaker 1: a majority of both parties say they're always looking for

1224
01:18:51,360 --> 01:18:53,680
Speaker 1: people that are close to their issues, it was like

1225
01:18:53,800 --> 01:18:56,320
Speaker 1: twenty three percent of Republicans said they were looking for

1226
01:18:56,400 --> 01:18:59,320
Speaker 1: the most electable, seventy plus percent looking for people that

1227
01:18:59,360 --> 01:19:02,000
Speaker 1: agree with them issues. But among Democrats it was like

1228
01:19:02,040 --> 01:19:04,960
Speaker 1: fifty four percent saying they were looking for people that

1229
01:19:05,000 --> 01:19:06,880
Speaker 1: agree on issues, but over it was about forty one

1230
01:19:07,000 --> 01:19:09,280
Speaker 1: or forty two that said they were looking for the

1231
01:19:09,320 --> 01:19:12,639
Speaker 1: most electable. So you do have and this is where

1232
01:19:12,680 --> 01:19:16,400
Speaker 1: I think that Democratic Party leaders and the leaders of

1233
01:19:16,439 --> 01:19:19,360
Speaker 1: the interest groups on the left are couldn't be more

1234
01:19:19,400 --> 01:19:22,680
Speaker 1: out of sync with their own primary voters, right, you

1235
01:19:22,720 --> 01:19:25,200
Speaker 1: have a large chunk of primary voters that are looking

1236
01:19:25,320 --> 01:19:31,360
Speaker 1: for essentially friendlier politicians who don't necessarily agree with them

1237
01:19:31,360 --> 01:19:35,879
Speaker 1: on anything everything. They're not putting them to purity tests,

1238
01:19:37,160 --> 01:19:40,200
Speaker 1: but you see how much these candidates and these interest

1239
01:19:40,200 --> 01:19:46,040
Speaker 1: groups force purity tests. So I you know, Fetterman is

1240
01:19:46,080 --> 01:19:49,040
Speaker 1: an economic populist, he's going to be to the left

1241
01:19:49,040 --> 01:19:50,400
Speaker 1: of you know, this is why he's going to stay

1242
01:19:50,439 --> 01:19:53,120
Speaker 1: a Democrat, but perhaps he ends up running as an independent.

1243
01:19:54,280 --> 01:19:56,840
Speaker 1: And look, you know, I think both parties in order

1244
01:19:56,880 --> 01:20:04,040
Speaker 1: to sober up, they've stopped being ideologed, accepting ideological diversity. Right,

1245
01:20:04,120 --> 01:20:11,040
Speaker 1: Trump punishes it severely, and essentially Democratic Party leadership does

1246
01:20:11,080 --> 01:20:15,439
Speaker 1: not reward it. They don't necessarily punish it, but they

1247
01:20:15,560 --> 01:20:19,599
Speaker 1: just they refuse to defend their anybody that ends up

1248
01:20:19,600 --> 01:20:22,880
Speaker 1: going off the reservation because they're afraid of the ire

1249
01:20:23,040 --> 01:20:27,760
Speaker 1: of left wing interest groups. So we already have this

1250
01:20:27,800 --> 01:20:30,400
Speaker 1: problem on the right. And I think that you know,

1251
01:20:30,439 --> 01:20:36,760
Speaker 1: the alien look the alienation right if it is, you know,

1252
01:20:37,080 --> 01:20:39,200
Speaker 1: And I think the Democratic Party has to ask itself,

1253
01:20:39,240 --> 01:20:42,000
Speaker 1: just like the Republican Party has to ask its itself.

1254
01:20:42,040 --> 01:20:47,320
Speaker 1: What doesn't want to be is somebody who's sixty percent

1255
01:20:47,400 --> 01:20:51,320
Speaker 1: your friend forty min Let's say let's put it in

1256
01:20:51,360 --> 01:20:53,840
Speaker 1: this seventy percent, because that's really where we're looking at

1257
01:20:53,840 --> 01:20:57,120
Speaker 1: with betterment and with cinema. Is somebody that's with you

1258
01:20:57,160 --> 01:21:00,240
Speaker 1: seventy percent, but they're against you thirty percent on some things?

1259
01:21:00,640 --> 01:21:04,680
Speaker 1: Would you rather than be a Republican? Would you rather

1260
01:21:04,720 --> 01:21:06,160
Speaker 1: than be an independent? Or do you want them a

1261
01:21:06,160 --> 01:21:09,760
Speaker 1: part of your coalition? Because I go back to reminding

1262
01:21:10,320 --> 01:21:15,400
Speaker 1: democrats on the left in particular of something very there's

1263
01:21:15,439 --> 01:21:18,360
Speaker 1: a specific reason why that Democrats have to be more

1264
01:21:18,800 --> 01:21:21,680
Speaker 1: pragmatic in reaching out to the middle than the Republicans do.

1265
01:21:21,760 --> 01:21:27,200
Speaker 1: Right now, self described liberal voters are twenty nine percent

1266
01:21:27,200 --> 01:21:29,360
Speaker 1: of the electorate in the latest SEMBI Seniors Wall Street

1267
01:21:29,400 --> 01:21:32,120
Speaker 1: journable and self described conservative voters are about thirty eight

1268
01:21:32,160 --> 01:21:34,120
Speaker 1: percent of the electorate thirty seven percent of the electorate.

1269
01:21:34,479 --> 01:21:37,360
Speaker 1: So that's about an eight to nine point gap, which

1270
01:21:37,400 --> 01:21:42,720
Speaker 1: means to get to fifty percent plus one, Democrats need

1271
01:21:42,760 --> 01:21:47,639
Speaker 1: more moderates than Republicans need. And when you need more,

1272
01:21:47,880 --> 01:21:51,240
Speaker 1: then yes, your base is not going is going to

1273
01:21:51,240 --> 01:21:54,560
Speaker 1: get less of everything they want than the base of

1274
01:21:54,600 --> 01:21:57,439
Speaker 1: the right is going to get. And I know that

1275
01:21:57,439 --> 01:22:03,080
Speaker 1: frustrates the left, So maybe make your policies more appetizing

1276
01:22:03,120 --> 01:22:08,639
Speaker 1: for the mettle if you're hoping to expande your coalition. Well,

1277
01:22:08,720 --> 01:22:13,360
Speaker 1: right now, while it is growing slightly the base of

1278
01:22:13,400 --> 01:22:17,040
Speaker 1: the left, it is still about ten points lower than

1279
01:22:17,080 --> 01:22:20,439
Speaker 1: the base on the right. And that difference is why

1280
01:22:21,400 --> 01:22:25,120
Speaker 1: the Republican agenda lean's right and usually a successful Democratic

1281
01:22:25,280 --> 01:22:33,160
Speaker 1: agenda agenda leans center left. It's simple math, folks. Next

1282
01:22:33,200 --> 01:22:35,240
Speaker 1: question comes from them and Tulsa. Hey, Chuck, just finished

1283
01:22:35,240 --> 01:22:37,160
Speaker 1: listening to the Chris Saliza episode and I thought you

1284
01:22:37,200 --> 01:22:38,960
Speaker 1: guys nailed it. The content as great as always, but

1285
01:22:39,000 --> 01:22:41,080
Speaker 1: love the dynamic between you two because you both speak

1286
01:22:41,080 --> 01:22:43,320
Speaker 1: the same political language, so you can build off each

1287
01:22:43,320 --> 01:22:46,080
Speaker 1: other in a satisfying way. Well, thank you and Chris,

1288
01:22:46,120 --> 01:22:47,920
Speaker 1: thanks you. Love to see you. Maybe a monthly or

1289
01:22:47,960 --> 01:22:49,680
Speaker 1: even a monthly series with you, guys. I'm sure there

1290
01:22:49,680 --> 01:22:51,760
Speaker 1: will be more than enough major events to warrant a

1291
01:22:51,800 --> 01:22:53,760
Speaker 1: recurring meeting either way. La cheeseerie and keep up the

1292
01:22:53,760 --> 01:22:56,160
Speaker 1: good work. M in Tulsa. I love that you're in.

1293
01:22:56,680 --> 01:22:58,800
Speaker 1: Do you have any fun gadgets for us to use?

1294
01:22:58,960 --> 01:23:03,120
Speaker 1: I'm thinking James Bond here am in all seriousness, you

1295
01:23:03,200 --> 01:23:06,080
Speaker 1: may not realize this and maybe I do a weekly

1296
01:23:06,160 --> 01:23:10,400
Speaker 1: podcast on Chris Silissa's substack. It's behind a paywall. It's

1297
01:23:10,439 --> 01:23:14,519
Speaker 1: part of his independent news organization. So we do do

1298
01:23:14,600 --> 01:23:18,440
Speaker 1: a weekly together every Monday. It goes up Monday afternoons.

1299
01:23:19,400 --> 01:23:21,280
Speaker 1: I do think that Chris is going to come back

1300
01:23:21,280 --> 01:23:25,519
Speaker 1: here pretty much after every one of our joint primary nights.

1301
01:23:25,840 --> 01:23:28,400
Speaker 1: That's what we've decided to do. So we're gonna do Illinois,

1302
01:23:28,400 --> 01:23:29,759
Speaker 1: So we're going to try to get him back here

1303
01:23:30,080 --> 01:23:32,559
Speaker 1: at least once a month after one of our big

1304
01:23:32,600 --> 01:23:36,760
Speaker 1: primary nights for this calendar year. But yeah, when you've

1305
01:23:36,760 --> 01:23:38,479
Speaker 1: known somebody as long as Chris and I have known

1306
01:23:38,520 --> 01:23:42,439
Speaker 1: each other, and you know, this goes back to the

1307
01:23:42,560 --> 01:23:47,840
Speaker 1: advice that Tony Kornheiser gave me, the advice that I

1308
01:23:48,160 --> 01:23:50,200
Speaker 1: don't know if Tony gave I think Tony gave this

1309
01:23:50,240 --> 01:23:54,479
Speaker 1: advice to Bill Simmons, or maybe Bill Simmons gave it

1310
01:23:54,479 --> 01:23:56,880
Speaker 1: to Tony. I don't know which right. Who's the who's

1311
01:23:56,920 --> 01:23:59,519
Speaker 1: the who's the true podfather? I feel like Tony is

1312
01:23:59,560 --> 01:24:02,400
Speaker 1: sort of the the guy that that sort of over

1313
01:24:02,680 --> 01:24:05,240
Speaker 1: is sort of over everybody, But it really is is

1314
01:24:06,920 --> 01:24:09,160
Speaker 1: talk to your friends because it's the best way to

1315
01:24:09,200 --> 01:24:12,400
Speaker 1: convey what you know. You know sometimes when you talk

1316
01:24:12,439 --> 01:24:13,920
Speaker 1: to people you don't know all the time. No, not me.

1317
01:24:14,040 --> 01:24:16,080
Speaker 1: I like to get to know new people, new ideas.

1318
01:24:16,080 --> 01:24:19,000
Speaker 1: So I like a mix, which is why I like

1319
01:24:19,040 --> 01:24:21,080
Speaker 1: to have people I've not had on before. I want,

1320
01:24:21,479 --> 01:24:26,880
Speaker 1: I want to be challenged. But I also believe when

1321
01:24:27,000 --> 01:24:30,679
Speaker 1: especially when trying to convey what I believe I understand

1322
01:24:30,720 --> 01:24:34,679
Speaker 1: about sort of politics in America, doing so with somebody

1323
01:24:34,720 --> 01:24:39,800
Speaker 1: that knows your ticks, knows your the good and the

1324
01:24:39,840 --> 01:24:42,160
Speaker 1: bad of your ability to go down rabbit holes is

1325
01:24:42,200 --> 01:24:44,240
Speaker 1: always a good thing. And I think Solici and I

1326
01:24:44,240 --> 01:24:49,040
Speaker 1: are pretty pretty good about that. And here's another one

1327
01:24:49,040 --> 01:24:51,320
Speaker 1: for sialism man. I wonder if his ears are burning.

1328
01:24:51,360 --> 01:24:53,439
Speaker 1: I'll tell him about this in our Monday episode. Hey,

1329
01:24:53,439 --> 01:24:55,920
Speaker 1: thanks for introducing me to Crystaliz's work fascinating the country.

1330
01:24:55,960 --> 01:24:58,599
Speaker 1: The county unit of measure got me thinking what if

1331
01:24:58,600 --> 01:25:02,080
Speaker 1: the federal statute required US House districts to become either

1332
01:25:02,120 --> 01:25:05,280
Speaker 1: contiguous counties or a subdivided county. I think it would

1333
01:25:05,280 --> 01:25:08,200
Speaker 1: be better to have multiple representatives per big county, but

1334
01:25:08,240 --> 01:25:10,200
Speaker 1: I think we would need a constitutional amendment for that.

1335
01:25:10,560 --> 01:25:14,320
Speaker 1: Changing county borders is harder than district gerrymandery would reduce

1336
01:25:14,360 --> 01:25:17,320
Speaker 1: the arbitrarrian ness of districts and create a more obvious

1337
01:25:17,360 --> 01:25:20,679
Speaker 1: pipeline of county political leadership towards the federal Congress. Cheers

1338
01:25:20,720 --> 01:25:25,200
Speaker 1: Judd Montreal. Well, look, I just wouldn't change county lines, right.

1339
01:25:25,240 --> 01:25:27,000
Speaker 1: I understand what you're saying, and I think we do

1340
01:25:27,120 --> 01:25:30,559
Speaker 1: view county lines. That's sort of more in penn And

1341
01:25:30,640 --> 01:25:39,880
Speaker 1: obviously congressional district lines are in pencil. But if you yes,

1342
01:25:39,920 --> 01:25:42,000
Speaker 1: it would take a constitutional amendment if you wanted to

1343
01:25:42,080 --> 01:25:47,080
Speaker 1: have some restrictions like no congressional seat. You know, I

1344
01:25:48,120 --> 01:25:53,599
Speaker 1: will tell you this. I go back to I think

1345
01:25:53,640 --> 01:25:56,000
Speaker 1: there needs to be a population standard. Zero point zh

1346
01:25:56,080 --> 01:25:58,840
Speaker 1: three percent of the population right now would put it

1347
01:25:58,880 --> 01:26:01,400
Speaker 1: to I think about one three hundred fifty thousand. So

1348
01:26:01,520 --> 01:26:04,280
Speaker 1: no congressional district could be bigger than larger than point

1349
01:26:04,320 --> 01:26:07,439
Speaker 1: oh three percent of the population, so that it always

1350
01:26:07,520 --> 01:26:10,479
Speaker 1: was that ratio, right, and so that the ratio was

1351
01:26:10,520 --> 01:26:15,000
Speaker 1: the same. You know, you could do some sort of

1352
01:26:15,160 --> 01:26:19,479
Speaker 1: contiguous law by miles, You could do a contiguous law

1353
01:26:19,560 --> 01:26:23,759
Speaker 1: by acreage, you know. But I think if you started

1354
01:26:23,760 --> 01:26:28,880
Speaker 1: with the population size point zh three, I think by

1355
01:26:29,760 --> 01:26:32,240
Speaker 1: You couldn't draw a district that wasn't at least somewhat

1356
01:26:32,280 --> 01:26:39,559
Speaker 1: more contiguous and at least a community of interests of

1357
01:26:39,560 --> 01:26:41,720
Speaker 1: some sort. All right, this is the last question, is

1358
01:26:41,720 --> 01:26:44,400
Speaker 1: a six to one of the night, We'll go here.

1359
01:26:44,479 --> 01:26:46,160
Speaker 1: Do you think Democrats in Tall Rico will try to

1360
01:26:46,240 --> 01:26:48,120
Speaker 1: define the US Nate election once there is a winner

1361
01:26:48,120 --> 01:26:50,559
Speaker 1: in the Republican Party runoff, assuming the Democrats do not

1362
01:26:50,600 --> 01:26:53,640
Speaker 1: have their own runoffp This was obviously sent before we

1363
01:26:53,680 --> 01:26:56,120
Speaker 1: had a before we knew the results twenty twelve Obama

1364
01:26:56,200 --> 01:26:58,160
Speaker 1: vers Romeny. This happened on a presidential level with a

1365
01:26:58,240 --> 01:27:01,760
Speaker 1: media ad blitz. Sincerely, Avery and Superior Wisconsin. Well, look,

1366
01:27:01,760 --> 01:27:03,960
Speaker 1: I'm very curious to see what Taal Rico does during

1367
01:27:03,960 --> 01:27:09,760
Speaker 1: this runoff. I think there are I think, look, it

1368
01:27:10,080 --> 01:27:13,439
Speaker 1: does appear there's at least some effort, although I think

1369
01:27:13,479 --> 01:27:16,120
Speaker 1: Trump's kind of distracted, but there appears to be some

1370
01:27:16,200 --> 01:27:20,880
Speaker 1: effort to endorse corn In and see if they can

1371
01:27:21,080 --> 01:27:30,080
Speaker 1: work somehow push packed to Now. I think that if

1372
01:27:30,120 --> 01:27:32,000
Speaker 1: I were Tall Rico and there's a runoff, I play

1373
01:27:32,000 --> 01:27:34,800
Speaker 1: in the runoff. And I think it's a mistake not

1374
01:27:34,840 --> 01:27:36,599
Speaker 1: to play in the runoff, Whether it's Tall Rico, whether

1375
01:27:36,640 --> 01:27:39,920
Speaker 1: it's the Democratic super packs, because at the end of

1376
01:27:39,960 --> 01:27:42,920
Speaker 1: the day, it's a much different race. It's a much

1377
01:27:43,280 --> 01:27:45,360
Speaker 1: it's a it's a cleaner campaign to run if you're

1378
01:27:45,439 --> 01:27:47,720
Speaker 1: running against PACs Man. I'm not one of those who

1379
01:27:47,760 --> 01:27:51,920
Speaker 1: thinks corn is unbeatable. This political environment, it's deteriorating by

1380
01:27:51,960 --> 01:27:58,519
Speaker 1: the hour for Republicans. But it's certainly a different race

1381
01:27:58,920 --> 01:28:02,240
Speaker 1: against cornin and it's a more costly race because corn

1382
01:28:02,320 --> 01:28:04,560
Speaker 1: is going to have a ton more money than Paxton's

1383
01:28:04,600 --> 01:28:09,679
Speaker 1: going to have. So it is I do think they

1384
01:28:09,720 --> 01:28:12,840
Speaker 1: can't just sit quietly and raise money. They need to

1385
01:28:12,880 --> 01:28:16,960
Speaker 1: try to influence the political weather want while they have

1386
01:28:17,040 --> 01:28:20,080
Speaker 1: a freehand to do so. Put it this way, if

1387
01:28:20,080 --> 01:28:23,160
Speaker 1: the roles were reversed, the Republicans would be doing everything

1388
01:28:23,200 --> 01:28:25,680
Speaker 1: they could in their minds to elect Jasmine Crockett in

1389
01:28:25,680 --> 01:28:28,519
Speaker 1: the runoff. So if you're Tall Rico, you should do

1390
01:28:28,520 --> 01:28:32,479
Speaker 1: everything you can to nominate and to help Ken Paxton

1391
01:28:32,640 --> 01:28:34,840
Speaker 1: in the runoff. And if you're not doing that, then

1392
01:28:34,880 --> 01:28:39,439
Speaker 1: you're not playing to win. All right, I'm gonna pause there.

1393
01:28:40,880 --> 01:28:45,639
Speaker 1: I ended up doing my little sports thing with that.

1394
01:28:46,320 --> 01:28:49,479
Speaker 1: I will say this, I'm really I love the World

1395
01:28:49,479 --> 01:28:53,439
Speaker 1: Baseball Classic. I really feel sorry for these you know,

1396
01:28:54,120 --> 01:28:56,280
Speaker 1: you realize, I mean it is sort of the World

1397
01:28:56,320 --> 01:29:01,120
Speaker 1: Baseball Classic is these days, is kind of like it's

1398
01:29:01,200 --> 01:29:05,240
Speaker 1: kind of like the way Olympics basketball works now, both

1399
01:29:05,280 --> 01:29:07,000
Speaker 1: in men and women. There are really only two or

1400
01:29:07,000 --> 01:29:10,519
Speaker 1: three countries that have the ability to beat anybody, and

1401
01:29:10,640 --> 01:29:12,879
Speaker 1: the US only has to worry about two or three countries.

1402
01:29:13,520 --> 01:29:15,040
Speaker 1: And in this case, the US only has to worry

1403
01:29:15,040 --> 01:29:19,280
Speaker 1: about two or three countries, you know, a Dominican and Japan.

1404
01:29:19,600 --> 01:29:22,760
Speaker 1: And the real difference you see here is pitching. Right

1405
01:29:23,120 --> 01:29:26,840
Speaker 1: you saw it with against Brazil. Those guys could not

1406
01:29:26,920 --> 01:29:28,960
Speaker 1: find the strike zone. I think they actually could find

1407
01:29:29,000 --> 01:29:30,639
Speaker 1: the strike zone. I think they were afraid to find

1408
01:29:30,680 --> 01:29:33,800
Speaker 1: the strike zone, right because the second that ball goes

1409
01:29:33,840 --> 01:29:36,400
Speaker 1: into the strike zone, even the number nine hitter Brian

1410
01:29:36,479 --> 01:29:38,960
Speaker 1: turrang Man, it's going to crutch that sucker to the wall.

1411
01:29:40,800 --> 01:29:46,439
Speaker 1: It is. That's where you see this massive gap right now.

1412
01:29:46,520 --> 01:29:49,760
Speaker 1: It's closing a lot, right. It's interesting to see how

1413
01:29:49,800 --> 01:29:52,720
Speaker 1: competitive Panama is with Puerto Rico because Puerto Rico a

1414
01:29:52,760 --> 01:29:54,640
Speaker 1: little weaker team this year. I think they don't have

1415
01:29:54,760 --> 01:29:57,800
Speaker 1: enough pitching to be to sort of get closer to

1416
01:29:57,840 --> 01:30:01,000
Speaker 1: the big three countries, right, the dr the US in Japan,

1417
01:30:02,080 --> 01:30:04,680
Speaker 1: But you know Puerto Rico and Venezuela are like the

1418
01:30:04,720 --> 01:30:08,360
Speaker 1: next two right with maybe with Canada there though they

1419
01:30:08,479 --> 01:30:12,920
Speaker 1: also have Most of these countries have pitching issues, right.

1420
01:30:13,040 --> 01:30:16,000
Speaker 1: It's pitching depth, and that seems to be the biggest difference.

1421
01:30:17,680 --> 01:30:20,320
Speaker 1: It is really only the Japanese, the Dominicans, and the

1422
01:30:20,320 --> 01:30:24,280
Speaker 1: Americans that have the pitching depth to handle everything. But

1423
01:30:24,439 --> 01:30:26,880
Speaker 1: I had to say, I enjoy all of these games.

1424
01:30:26,960 --> 01:30:30,040
Speaker 1: I like seeing the former major leaguers. It was a

1425
01:30:30,080 --> 01:30:33,320
Speaker 1: real treat to see Trace Thompson, brother of Klay Thompson.

1426
01:30:34,479 --> 01:30:36,960
Speaker 1: I think I sold a rookie autograph of his for

1427
01:30:37,040 --> 01:30:40,240
Speaker 1: like three dollars, like five years ago. By the way,

1428
01:30:40,400 --> 01:30:42,040
Speaker 1: I thought it would do better than that. But this

1429
01:30:42,080 --> 01:30:44,840
Speaker 1: is Michael Thompson's son. Michael Thompson was a center for

1430
01:30:44,880 --> 01:30:47,640
Speaker 1: the Lakers, the first center after Kareem. He won a

1431
01:30:47,680 --> 01:30:50,040
Speaker 1: title with the Lakers. He had two sons that made

1432
01:30:50,080 --> 01:30:53,599
Speaker 1: the major that made the made pro sports leagues. Trace

1433
01:30:53,640 --> 01:30:57,679
Speaker 1: Thompson Major League Baseball, Clay Thompson the NBA, and boy

1434
01:30:57,760 --> 01:30:59,840
Speaker 1: that height it was man, it was just it was

1435
01:30:59,840 --> 01:31:02,120
Speaker 1: a great defensive play. But that was the thing with

1436
01:31:02,200 --> 01:31:06,040
Speaker 1: Trace Thompson. There were plenty. It's a reminder great defense

1437
01:31:06,120 --> 01:31:08,840
Speaker 1: does not guarantee a major league career. You've got to

1438
01:31:08,840 --> 01:31:11,479
Speaker 1: be able to hit the ball, and that was always

1439
01:31:11,479 --> 01:31:14,000
Speaker 1: the challenge there for Trace. But it's really fun to

1440
01:31:14,040 --> 01:31:18,400
Speaker 1: see to see these these players. I think he was

1441
01:31:18,400 --> 01:31:22,320
Speaker 1: on a part of Great Great Britain. If you're in

1442
01:31:22,320 --> 01:31:25,160
Speaker 1: the Commonwealth, right, You're why Jazz Chisholm is on Great

1443
01:31:25,160 --> 01:31:28,400
Speaker 1: Britain because he's a Bahamian and they're part of the Commonwealth.

1444
01:31:29,080 --> 01:31:33,679
Speaker 1: I guess if if if the Bahamas gets gets more

1445
01:31:34,439 --> 01:31:36,400
Speaker 1: major league players, they can feel the team. And I

1446
01:31:36,400 --> 01:31:39,000
Speaker 1: guess if Canada couldn't field the team, they'd also be

1447
01:31:39,040 --> 01:31:42,519
Speaker 1: a part of Great Britain's team. Like if Canada and

1448
01:31:42,760 --> 01:31:45,240
Speaker 1: Great Britain, which apparently is grabbing half the Caribbean, and

1449
01:31:45,280 --> 01:31:48,280
Speaker 1: the Netherlands grabs the other half of the Caribbean, I

1450
01:31:48,280 --> 01:31:52,320
Speaker 1: guess you could put together in the three countries, Canada,

1451
01:31:52,400 --> 01:31:59,040
Speaker 1: Great Britain and the Netherlands collectively probably could be a

1452
01:31:59,080 --> 01:32:03,240
Speaker 1: top A top four were contesting here. Anyway. I'm also

1453
01:32:03,240 --> 01:32:05,960
Speaker 1: caring about the WBC because my son and I plan

1454
01:32:06,040 --> 01:32:09,360
Speaker 1: to go to the game when it's in Miami, and

1455
01:32:09,640 --> 01:32:12,000
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to it going to a semi final.

1456
01:32:13,000 --> 01:32:15,160
Speaker 1: I'm certainly hoping. I know I'm going to get one

1457
01:32:15,200 --> 01:32:18,080
Speaker 1: of three teams, right the DR Japan or TM USA.

1458
01:32:18,840 --> 01:32:22,160
Speaker 1: I'm hoping I've picked the right semi final game and

1459
01:32:22,240 --> 01:32:24,639
Speaker 1: I get the one that is he that is either

1460
01:32:25,600 --> 01:32:28,639
Speaker 1: Team D I hope it's the d R versus Japan,

1461
01:32:29,000 --> 01:32:31,000
Speaker 1: and you Team USA has already made the final. But

1462
01:32:31,080 --> 01:32:36,599
Speaker 1: either way, I think I want to say I always

1463
01:32:36,600 --> 01:32:39,080
Speaker 1: want to see o Tani. I think he's the I

1464
01:32:39,120 --> 01:32:42,640
Speaker 1: think he is the He is the biggest guarant He

1465
01:32:42,720 --> 01:32:45,120
Speaker 1: and Judge are close to being the biggest guarantees of

1466
01:32:45,160 --> 01:32:47,320
Speaker 1: a show in sport, in baseball right where you feel

1467
01:32:47,360 --> 01:32:48,360
Speaker 1: like if you go to a game of one of

1468
01:32:48,360 --> 01:32:50,559
Speaker 1: those two guys, there's a chance you're going to see

1469
01:32:50,560 --> 01:32:55,880
Speaker 1: something special, you know. I got to see Mike Trott's

1470
01:32:55,920 --> 01:32:59,640
Speaker 1: rookie year. Was it a White Sox game doing some

1471
01:32:59,720 --> 01:33:02,479
Speaker 1: interview was from my old Obama book. It was Mike

1472
01:33:02,479 --> 01:33:05,120
Speaker 1: Trodd and his rookie heear first game I ever seen

1473
01:33:05,160 --> 01:33:08,920
Speaker 1: him play, hits a home run and he took one

1474
01:33:09,000 --> 01:33:11,800
Speaker 1: away in center field, and I thought, I've had the

1475
01:33:11,840 --> 01:33:14,840
Speaker 1: full mic trout experience. That's I think how it feels

1476
01:33:14,880 --> 01:33:19,000
Speaker 1: with Doughtani these days. I mean, imagine being a Japanese

1477
01:33:20,800 --> 01:33:24,360
Speaker 1: member of that crowd. First night, of course he hits

1478
01:33:24,360 --> 01:33:28,280
Speaker 1: a grand Slam. I mean, you can take Otani the

1479
01:33:28,320 --> 01:33:30,439
Speaker 1: bank or Aaron Judge. First game, of course he hits

1480
01:33:30,479 --> 01:33:32,640
Speaker 1: a home run. Some of these guys, man, they just

1481
01:33:33,320 --> 01:33:36,559
Speaker 1: they're that good. Right now, baseball is lucky, so this

1482
01:33:36,640 --> 01:33:41,799
Speaker 1: is such a great time for baseball to have a workstoppage. Anyway,

1483
01:33:42,760 --> 01:33:46,880
Speaker 1: but I digress. Next week it's gonna be a lot

1484
01:33:46,880 --> 01:33:49,600
Speaker 1: of college basketball. I'm gonna warn you now. I'm a

1485
01:33:49,600 --> 01:33:51,960
Speaker 1: big fan of the tournament. My favorite bets to make

1486
01:33:52,000 --> 01:33:55,240
Speaker 1: are these unders teams. They don't know how to shoot

1487
01:33:55,280 --> 01:33:59,559
Speaker 1: in these new arenas. That's what those that make money

1488
01:33:59,560 --> 01:34:04,960
Speaker 1: gambling do. Those that throw money away chase the great

1489
01:34:04,960 --> 01:34:08,559
Speaker 1: teams and do stupid parlays. So there's your your bad

1490
01:34:08,600 --> 01:34:10,679
Speaker 1: gambling tip of the day. And with that, I'll see

1491
01:34:10,720 --> 01:34:13,360
Speaker 1: in forty eight hours. Enjoy the next two days.