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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds and a few research centers. Study found

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Speaker 1: a fifty three percent of you as adults rated America's.

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Speaker 2: Morals and ethics as bad.

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Speaker 1: We have situhow for you today ms Now's own Ali Bell.

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Speaker 1: She stops by to talk about Epstein and the economy

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Speaker 1: and the third Golf War. Then we'll talk to Semaphore's

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Speaker 1: Dave Weigel about the mid term battles he's watching.

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Speaker 2: But first the news.

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Speaker 3: All right, Bali, we did not get to tape yesterday,

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Speaker 3: so we did not get to discuss that Christine Nobles out.

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Speaker 3: Mark Wayne Mullin is in. I like to think of

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Speaker 3: him as the senator from Idiocracy because he talks like that.

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Speaker 2: Mark Wwayne Mullin, do.

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Speaker 3: You share my sentiment that Trump probably hired him because

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Speaker 3: he's the most belligerent responder to any reporter at any pushback.

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Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, I think Mark Wayne had been like on

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Speaker 1: a tour or on an audition tour. Remember, Trump's hiring

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Speaker 1: tends to reflect who he thinks will be good on television,

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Speaker 1: so this makes a lot of sense that Mark Wayne

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Speaker 1: would catch his eye. Mark Wayne has been like every

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Speaker 1: camera he's seen, he's ran to look. Mark Wayne is

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Speaker 1: an interesting guy because he is quite stupid, and he

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Speaker 1: speaks in a very you know, it's not entirely clear

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Speaker 1: what he's talking about a lot of time. He is, however,

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Speaker 1: a US senator, which makes me wonder, like I do

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Speaker 1: wonder why. You know, Mark Wayne is from a very

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Speaker 1: red state, and I don't totally understand why you take

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Speaker 1: this job, Like you know, I mean, there's not going

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Speaker 1: to be a third Trump administration. There's no way Christy

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Speaker 1: Nome is going to be the last cabinet member to

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Speaker 1: be fired. She's likely the first.

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Speaker 3: Let's also remember he's one of the senators who's most

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Speaker 3: enriched himself with stocks too, so he's giving that up shockingly, right,

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Speaker 3: I know.

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Speaker 1: To just enrich himself from working in the admin, which

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Speaker 1: I think he'll probably do too.

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Speaker 2: It seems like Christy did exactly.

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Speaker 1: I want to talk about Christy Nomes's hearings, one in

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Speaker 1: the Senate, one in the House. In the Senate, there

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Speaker 1: were a couple moments that I think really or clearly

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Speaker 1: the reporting says sealed her fate. One was the Louisiana

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Speaker 1: Senator John Kennedy who asked her why she had spent

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Speaker 1: two hundred and twenty million dollars on advertisements with her

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Speaker 1: face on them, and she said Trump signed off on it,

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Speaker 1: and then Trump said he didn't sign off on it,

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Speaker 1: leading us to like one of these weird moments in

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Speaker 1: Trump's second term where it is as likely that he

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Speaker 1: is lying that she is lying discuss.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the right hypothesis, but like, you can't believe

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Speaker 3: like this amount of advertising for something like this, and

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Speaker 3: it's why we see her everywhere in the freaking airports,

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Speaker 3: everywhere you can look. That's even aside from the fact

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Speaker 3: that it seems like a lot of this fucking graft

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Speaker 3: that never happened, none of it when anywhere, and we

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Speaker 3: still see her fucking face everywhere.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, every time you go on a TSA line, there

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Speaker 1: she is with the cowboy hat. But I do think

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Speaker 1: it's pretty interesting that, like we have more and more

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Speaker 1: moments in Trump two point zero where you absolutely have

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Speaker 1: no idea who's lying, because there's as much a likelihood

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Speaker 1: that Donald Trump said it's okay that she ran it

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Speaker 1: by him, right. But what I thought was really interesting

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Speaker 1: about those hearings, and I want to talk about it

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Speaker 1: for a minute. And I actually talked to some members

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Speaker 1: of Congress about this because I was curious what.

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Speaker 2: The reasoning was.

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Speaker 1: They kept asking, Uh, there was a California congresswoman and

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Speaker 1: then Jared Moskowitz this is the next day, and in

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Speaker 1: the Congress there was this this California congresswoman said are

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Speaker 1: you having sexual relationships with Corey Lewandowski? And it was interesting.

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Speaker 1: She said, oh, this is tabloid gossip and.

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Speaker 3: Muttered it up slut shaving.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but you know what, she didn't say.

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Speaker 4: That she's not doing it.

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Speaker 1: And then Jared Mosfoot's friend of the pod asked her

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Speaker 1: again later on and said, here's an opportunity for you

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Speaker 1: to set the record straight.

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Speaker 2: And again yeah.

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Speaker 3: Shot back, no denial, just said he's slutshaving her and

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Speaker 3: it's nuts.

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Speaker 1: But here's an interesting thing. So she is refusing to

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Speaker 1: perjure herself on this, yep. And it's interesting to me

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Speaker 1: because like there are clearly people in this administration who

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Speaker 1: perjure themselves all the time.

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Speaker 3: Right, we're about to see Pam Bondi held accountable for

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Speaker 3: instancee they're bringing her back to the standard girl eying about.

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Speaker 1: Her exactly, So it's just interesting to me. And then

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Speaker 1: also another interesting thing was and what we should have

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Speaker 1: seen where it was really out of control was on Thursday,

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Speaker 1: she had her husband sitting behind her and then she

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Speaker 1: said he need to catch a flight, so he missed

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Speaker 1: when the congress woman asked her if she was having

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Speaker 1: sexual relationships with Coreyla Nandawski, I'm sure that Christy Nolmes

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Speaker 1: husband is glad he wasn't there for that.

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Speaker 3: Well, it turns out Corey's very good at buying ads

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Speaker 3: inside Trump media organizations for her. But yes, we have

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Speaker 3: other fish to fry. Molly, he's not going.

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Speaker 1: To stay for the Marcoyne at dude is shockingly he's out.

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Speaker 3: Just now they said he's out yet, So Bai, we

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Speaker 3: got to talk about a fellow named Congressman Tony Gonzalez

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Speaker 3: who we've been talking about a bud share for those

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Speaker 3: who aren't up to speed. He was texting a staffer

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Speaker 3: wooed things at one in the morning, making sexual advances

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Speaker 3: to her that she lit herself on fire. Now fast

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Speaker 3: forward to that he has dropped out and this leaves

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Speaker 3: one Brandon Herreraz, the nominee in this district, who brags

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Speaker 3: about having a really good copy of mind cuff, goose

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Speaker 3: steps and videos to white power songs, all sorts of

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Speaker 3: just unhinged white power Nazi stuff.

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Speaker 1: First, let's talk about Gonzales because this is really important.

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Speaker 1: The entire Gonzales staff basically had a mutiny, at least

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Speaker 1: in that district office where the woman killed herself. You

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Speaker 1: had other staffers talking about how he wouldn't show up

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Speaker 1: at the office and how she had shown her coworkers

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Speaker 1: the texts. The texts were really seemed as if they

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Speaker 1: were really bordering on sexual harassment. So they may have

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Speaker 1: had an affair, but then it did certainly seem as

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Speaker 1: if there was a lot of one sided stuff there.

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Speaker 1: She did light herself on fire, which is pretty awful,

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Speaker 1: and he did try and spin this as like he

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Speaker 1: went on a conservative podcast. He said that his wife

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Speaker 1: and God had forgiven him. I think that this is

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Speaker 1: a really I think it's it's worth talking about this

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Speaker 1: for a second because there are a bunch of MAGA

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Speaker 1: members of Congress who are women, and that's MTG.

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Speaker 2: Is out now.

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Speaker 1: But Nancy Mace, Lauren Boepert, who said that they would

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Speaker 1: start ethics investigations on Gonzales if he did not resign

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Speaker 1: now again or he did not drop out from running again.

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Speaker 1: I think that what's interesting here is, look, Mike Johnson,

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Speaker 1: who is supposedly super Christian and super religious and cares

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Speaker 1: about the family, will not tell Tony Gonzalez to drop out.

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Speaker 1: That's because Republicans have a one seat majority and Mike

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Speaker 1: Johnson still wants to be the Speaker of the House.

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Speaker 1: But he can't say that because he's just such a hypocrite.

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Speaker 1: So he's sort of saying, well, it's up to him.

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Speaker 1: And you know, it's really watching Mike Johnson defend Trump.

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Speaker 1: It is at real everything Trump touches die stuff. But

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Speaker 1: also these women have decided some of these maga women

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Speaker 1: are so sort of mad, Mike Johnson. You'll remember that

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Speaker 1: Annie Carney reporting from earlier this year. They're mad like

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Speaker 1: they're not on they're not heads of committees. These women

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Speaker 1: have really been sort of sidelined. We're seeing Staphonic is

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Speaker 1: not running again. A lot of women are trying to

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Speaker 1: get out of the House. You know, there's only so

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Speaker 1: much sexism and misogyny you can practice on the women

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Speaker 1: in your party before they start to push back. And

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Speaker 1: so as much as this Gonzales story is a terrible story,

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Speaker 1: it also shows a little bit that the women of

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Speaker 1: the House Maga Caucus are actually sort.

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Speaker 2: Of pushing back.

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Speaker 1: Which we shouldn't congratulate them for it by any stretch

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Speaker 1: of the imagination, but I do think it's noteworthy.

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Speaker 3: I think it's another thing where we keep seeing that

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Speaker 3: the actions of this party's of morality keep shipping away

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Speaker 3: at its core and falling off some people.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but it's also like they thought they could take

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Speaker 1: the women back to the nineteen fifties, but actually, like

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Speaker 1: some of that is just to die, is so cast

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Speaker 1: there's nothing you can do hard agree.

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Speaker 3: I want to take us back to when Jimmy Carter

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Speaker 3: supposedly ruined his presidency with the Debbie Downer speech. How

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Speaker 3: do you think that compares to when Trump is asked

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Speaker 3: if Americans should worry about I read retaliating on US soil?

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Speaker 3: He said, I guess, like I said, some people will die.

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Speaker 1: You know, for you and I who came of age

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Speaker 1: during the Gulf War two and also GO four one,

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Speaker 1: I mean I lived through nine to eleven, and there's

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Speaker 1: something so incredibly disturbing about a president who's basically like,

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Speaker 1: you know, if it happens again, it happens again. We

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Speaker 1: should be so focused on preventing this kind of thing.

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Speaker 1: It's kind of disturbing to have a president who just

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Speaker 1: seems as if he's kind of agnostic to the possible

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Speaker 1: killing of Americans. You know, I like what he says.

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Speaker 1: By the way, I'm not convinced the quote is better.

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Speaker 1: We're six days into this war. You know, Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: has spent six billion dollars because the war costs more

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Speaker 1: than a billion dollars a day, somewhere between one and two.

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Speaker 1: Trump responds, So he's talking to everybody in the world

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Speaker 1: because he's trying to sell the war now that he's

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Speaker 1: already in it. A lot of people would have tried

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Speaker 1: to sell the war before. But okay, he said, I guess,

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Speaker 1: but I think they're worried about that all the time.

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Speaker 1: We think about it all the time. We planned for it,

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Speaker 1: but you know, we expect some things. The longer quote

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Speaker 1: is even worse. Like I said, some people will die.

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Speaker 1: President added, when you go to war, some people will die.

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Speaker 1: You know, who's not serving in this war, anyone with

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Speaker 1: their last name Trump or vance yep I mean, just

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Speaker 1: to watch them completely stop pretending at all to be

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Speaker 1: for anything but the worst possible stuff is amazing.

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Speaker 3: Some lastly, Molly, the Trump administration says, it's just doesn't

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Speaker 3: have the time to get to these terra free funds

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Speaker 3: for US pleabs.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I want to point out the Supreme Court said no more,

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Speaker 1: you can't do the tariffs. They are illegal, and so

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Speaker 1: they're supposed to issue refunds. And we have all these

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Speaker 1: big companies that are now suing the Admin for refunds,

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Speaker 1: and Trump is like, sorry, we can't comply with the

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Speaker 1: order to start terraf refunds.

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Speaker 2: Why not? Why not? Here's my question, why the fuck not?

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Speaker 3: Where there's no will, there's no way.

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Speaker 1: A key tension in the refunds saw guys emerged. It

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Speaker 1: should not be a saga. The court wants to move

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Speaker 1: fast and get refunds out the door, but the government

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump, They're going to send you the check, but

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Speaker 1: they're not going to sign it. We have exciting news

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Speaker 1: over at our YouTube channel. The third episode is out

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Speaker 1: now from our series Project twenty twenty nine, are reimagining

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Speaker 1: where we examine what went wrong with democrats approach to

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Speaker 1: policy and how we can correct it and deliver changes

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Speaker 1: for the American people. The first episodes dove into campaign finance, reform, antitrust,

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Speaker 1: and regulation. Our newest episode is on how we solidify

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Speaker 1: reproductive rights for women. We talk to the smartest names

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Speaker 1: in the field, like Abortion every Day is Jessica Valenti,

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Speaker 1: the Center for Reproductive Rights Nancy Northam, UCLA is oh

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Speaker 1: Mary Ziegler, and the gout Macher Institute's Kelly Badden. Republicans

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Speaker 1: were prepared for when they got the levers of power.

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Speaker 2: Democrats need to be too.

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Speaker 1: So please head over to YouTube and search Molly John

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Speaker 1: Fast Project twenty twenty nine or go to the Fast

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Speaker 1: Politics YouTube channel page and you'll find it there. Help

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Speaker 1: us spread the word. Ali Belchi has an anchor from US. Now.

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Speaker 2: Welcome, Welcome, Ali Beauchi.

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Speaker 5: This is fun. Got to be with you here. I

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Speaker 5: don't really have you on my show this. I've got

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Speaker 5: to be in the receiving end. If I've done anything

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Speaker 5: wrong to you, You're going to fix that right.

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Speaker 2: Now, certainly not.

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Speaker 1: You know, I'm a fan of yours, and actually this

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Speaker 1: is the moment. You know, there are so many things

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Speaker 1: that you and I are both interested in that are

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Speaker 1: happening at this very moment, and I think we have

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Speaker 1: to I think we should start with the Epstein files

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Speaker 1: being back.

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Speaker 2: This is Trump.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure you saw this, but this Trump news that

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Speaker 1: Trump had put I mean, this is just senior Department.

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Speaker 1: Justice Department publishes documents with sexual allegations against Trump.

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Speaker 5: They're back, yes, yeah. And here's the thing I think

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Speaker 5: about this, Admitisi's Trump administration from the Department of Justice

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Speaker 5: on is all about loyalists, right, Like people have to

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Speaker 5: be reminded. Pam Bondy was Donald Trump's lawyer. Todd Blanch

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Speaker 5: was Donald Trump's layer. And the thing people need to

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Speaker 5: think about is that when you're somebody's lawyer, your legal

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Speaker 5: obligation to them and to your attorney client privilege never ends.

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Speaker 5: If they stop being your lawyer, they're still they cannot

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Speaker 5: tell the public things that you've discussed with them.

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Speaker 2: Number one.

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Speaker 5: Number two, this is why you don't have your lawyers

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Speaker 5: do this stuff, because this will all come out one day.

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Speaker 5: It may not come out during the Trump administration. It

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Speaker 5: may come out after the midterm elections when the Trump

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Speaker 5: administration realizes they're in real trouble. It may come out

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Speaker 5: when Todd blanch and Pam BONDI realized that they do

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Speaker 5: not have the protections against prosecution for lying under oath

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Speaker 5: that Donald Trump has. But it will come out one day.

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Speaker 5: There will be a real administration, a real Department of

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Speaker 5: Justice that will get to the bottom of this, and

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Speaker 5: they'll get all the documents and they will actually speak

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Speaker 5: to the actual witnesses and the truth will come out.

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Speaker 5: My concern, Molly is that as I cover this war

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Speaker 5: in Iran, I'm thinking to myself, is this the Epstein War?

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Speaker 4: Like?

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Speaker 5: Is all that happens now a way to get you

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Speaker 5: to stop talking about Epstein on a daily basis?

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Speaker 1: And you know, this is my theory of the case. Right,

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Speaker 1: It's a war without a cause. It's sort of wag

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Speaker 1: the dog, except.

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Speaker 2: It's a real place.

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Speaker 5: If you actually had a cause, you could say, well,

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Speaker 5: we needed to actually have this war with Iran. We're

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Speaker 5: that we're doing it now timing wise, But no one's

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Speaker 5: made the case. No one has actually made the case.

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Speaker 5: And on Saturday night, the first bodies will be brought

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Speaker 5: back from Iran, the first American bodies, six bodies, I

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Speaker 5: think five will be brought four or five will be

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Speaker 5: brought back On Saturday night, and that's where it's going

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Speaker 5: to start to hit home. I think we become numb

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Speaker 5: to this with all the death in Afghanistan and in Iraq.

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Speaker 5: But the fact is you're now going to see that

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Speaker 5: people are dying for you not really being able to

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Speaker 5: articulate a reasons for this war. And I remind people

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Speaker 5: it's not that long ago this administration led about stuff.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 5: They said that Venezuela was about drugs, of that's all.

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Speaker 2: They said.

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Speaker 5: It was about pentanyl. There's no pedanel that comes from Venezuela.

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Speaker 5: Then they just generally said about drugs. But the boats

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Speaker 5: that they were bobbing were headed not to America and

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Speaker 5: couldn't get to America anyway. And then within an hour

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Speaker 5: of that thing, Donald Trump comes on and says it's

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Speaker 5: about the oil. Right, So they lied to us.

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Speaker 2: Then I don't know what the story is.

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Speaker 5: This oil is just something else.

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Speaker 2: What is this war about?

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Speaker 1: You're not supposed to say this, but Marco Rubio did

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Speaker 1: say it was because of Israel.

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Speaker 2: Which is too. Also weird are we renting.

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Speaker 5: Out our army now to our military whoever wants it?

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Speaker 2: And it's an insane thing to say.

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Speaker 1: I mean, even if it's true, so much of American

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Speaker 1: life is built around the idea that it's not true.

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Speaker 2: But that was a shocking moment to me.

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Speaker 1: And then he walked it back, and then he got

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Speaker 1: mad at the journalist who asked the question, because ultimately

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Speaker 1: their enemy is not themselves, and they're shifting up explanations

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Speaker 1: for things, but instead the media that reminds them of it.

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Speaker 5: And one thing that was very notable that flew under

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Speaker 5: the radar this week is that like Trump, Netta, who's

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Speaker 5: got legal trouble and continuing to be the Prime Minister

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Speaker 5: of Israel, like Trump, is his best inoculation about against

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Speaker 5: getting into any sort of trouble. He's supposed to have

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Speaker 5: an election this year, it hasn't been called yet, which

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Speaker 5: is a little bit weird. And wars generally get people

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Speaker 5: to rally around the flag. But there has been some

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Speaker 5: pressure on the Israeli president Hertsog to harden Netaniaho and

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Speaker 5: he won't do it. So Trump threatened Hertzog with some

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Speaker 5: sort of personal sanctions on him for not part of

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Speaker 5: I mean talking. This is what a weird story. Donald

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Speaker 5: Trump's involved in internal Israeli politics now to protect Neataniel

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Speaker 5: like the world's upside.

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Speaker 1: Down, right, And I want to get to your idea

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Speaker 1: of rallying around the flag because I think it's important

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Speaker 1: to realize that this war is a war. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I don't know what it's a warrior, yeah, and it's

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Speaker 1: dragging in different you know, the Emirates are now involved

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Speaker 1: the UAE. I think it's very hard to keep this contained.

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Speaker 1: Is as unpopular as anything has ever been. You know,

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Speaker 1: I don't know who said this first, but Rick Wilson

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Speaker 1: always says it to me, which is, your war will

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Speaker 1: never be more popular than it is on day one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent.

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Speaker 5: Think about Afghanistan. That was a real rally around the flag.

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Speaker 5: Someone had attacked America and so America was attacking someone else.

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Speaker 2: And if people signed.

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Speaker 5: Up who weren't going to be in the military, people died,

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Speaker 5: and they still thought it was a cause worth fighting.

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Speaker 5: Then he get I rack a little less clear, but

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Speaker 5: the Bush administration made some effort to legally do what

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Speaker 5: it needed to do and sell it to Congress and

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Speaker 5: sell it to the UN.

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Speaker 2: Right they went.

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Speaker 5: He went to the UN two times to sell this war.

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Speaker 5: Then he got this, and it's not popular to start

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Speaker 5: with I was doing some looking at some polling the

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Speaker 5: other night. It was about about fifty nine percent of Americans.

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Speaker 5: I think that Donald Trump should have gotten authorizations from

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Speaker 5: Congress if he wanted to have a war, which maybe

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Speaker 5: it would have gotten.

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Speaker 2: Maybe he wouldn't have sixty forty issues.

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Speaker 5: Right, And remember thirty five is Donald Trump's floor.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 5: We can literally set fire to people and they will

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Speaker 5: still thirty five percent of the population will still support him.

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Speaker 5: So very few people support this to start with. There's

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Speaker 5: no rallying round the flag because nobody understands why we're

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Speaker 5: doing this war. And they don't get more popular as

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Speaker 5: body bags come home and costs mount, and it's not

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Speaker 5: just your gas prices oils up fifteen percent, so your

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Speaker 5: gas prices will be up fifteen percent. Unlike tariff sware

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Speaker 5: company might say I'm going to save my customers from

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Speaker 5: this because they might go away. I might pass it on,

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Speaker 5: I might not pass it on. There's confusion about that.

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Speaker 5: There's no confusion about gas prices ever, boil those up.

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Speaker 5: Gas prices go up.

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Speaker 2: End of story. And then there's a third thing.

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Speaker 5: Afghanistan and I Rock cost us different estimates between four

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Speaker 5: and eight trillion dollars, which is a very big part

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Speaker 5: of our national debt now because it keeps mounting because

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Speaker 5: of interest. Right, so we're still paying the ice for

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Speaker 5: those two wars that maybe some people understood and maybe

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Speaker 5: some people supported.

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Speaker 2: Nobody supports this one.

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Speaker 5: And it's between one and two billion dollars a day

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Speaker 5: so far that it's costing us.

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Speaker 2: Yeah that I was.

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Speaker 1: Going to say at least a billion dollars a day.

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Speaker 1: So we're six days in or really and then the

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Speaker 1: straits of Hermuth, which hadn't been now is blocked. That's

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Speaker 1: twenty to twenty five percent of worldwide.

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Speaker 2: Oil and gas.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So there's a theory of the case that said,

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Speaker 5: because we now know that Venezuela was about oil, if

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Speaker 5: you Venezuela's got more oil reserves than anyone in the world,

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Speaker 5: including Saudi Arabia. So if you can bring Venezuela into

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Speaker 5: America's orbit. Remember, this was not about the people of

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Speaker 5: Venezuela or democracy or anything else that was.

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Speaker 2: Actually see rodrigaz in there, correct.

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Speaker 5: So we'd have a puppet government in Venezuela, which is

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Speaker 5: kind of annoying to the Venezuela and diaspora who actually won.

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Speaker 2: These guys ousted, so they are fault for having any

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Speaker 2: faith in this administration.

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Speaker 5: Yes, so now you have in theory, you've got access

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Speaker 5: to Venezuelan oil. So in theory, Iran blocking a fifth

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Speaker 5: of the world's oil from getting through the straight of

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Speaker 5: Horror moves is offset.

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Speaker 2: That's the theory.

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Speaker 5: The practice is that Venezuelan oil is for quality oil,

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Speaker 5: and because their infrastructure is so degraded, it's going to

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Speaker 5: take up to ten years to get that oil on

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Speaker 5: the market. So if you wanted to do this and

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Speaker 5: then ten years from now bomb Iran, you might actually say,

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Speaker 5: you know what, Iran's got no leverage over anybody right now,

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Speaker 5: That's just not true anymore. It runs for the moment,

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Speaker 5: it runs, got this leverage of the straight of hor moves.

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Speaker 1: But the hilarious bit of all of this is that

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Speaker 1: what Donald Trump has done is he's canceled all of

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Speaker 1: these clean energy projects. So China has you know, solar

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Speaker 1: and wind and all, and even nukes can do what

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Speaker 1: we need with much less environmental cost. And also once

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Speaker 1: you set up a solar point, you don't have to

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Speaker 1: pay for it anymore.

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Speaker 4: That's correct.

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Speaker 2: So there's a lot of things going on.

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Speaker 5: But the other thing about China that's worth keeping in

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Speaker 5: mind is we have sent these two strike carrier groups

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Speaker 5: to Iran right to prosecute this war. One of them

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Speaker 5: was in East Asia, and that was the security blanket

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Speaker 5: for Taiwan that there is a strike carrier group. We

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Speaker 5: could bring more in. But if China invades Taiwan, we've

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Speaker 5: actually got we we got allies, and we have a

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Speaker 5: military strength.

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Speaker 2: Now we moved it. Now it's gone.

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Speaker 5: Shannas might be sitting here thinking this is a good

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Speaker 5: time to take over Taiwan.

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Speaker 2: Now what's America going to do.

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Speaker 5: They've got a war in Iran that they need all

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Speaker 5: those terriers, and then they've got this war here. And

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Speaker 5: by the way, a lot of that naval power in

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Speaker 5: and around Iran is because of the Strait of Horror moves.

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Speaker 5: America is the only naval power that can push back

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Speaker 5: on Iran trying to mine the Straight of Horror Moves

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Speaker 5: or send missiles across. It's twenty one miles at its

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Speaker 5: narrowest point, so that's one channel this way and one

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Speaker 5: channel the other way. Here's the problem with that. Those

440
00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 5: aren't military ships. Those are ships carrying goods. And oil

441
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:03,200
Speaker 5: that has to be ensured. No one will insure you

442
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 5: to go through a war zone. Lloyd's of London will,

443
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 5: but it'll cost so much money that it's not worth it.

444
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:11,640
Speaker 5: It will be worth it. So these ships, it's like, Okay,

445
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 5: maybe the American military is over here, the Iranian militaries

446
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:16,800
Speaker 5: over here, and the American military will cancel out the

447
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 5: Iranian military as I sail my boat very slowly through

448
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:22,720
Speaker 5: the Strait of horror moves. But how about I just

449
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:24,919
Speaker 5: don't because how about I don't want to die and

450
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 5: I don't want my oil to all go into the ocean.

451
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 1: And that's a Venezuela problem too, is you have trouble

452
00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:33,960
Speaker 1: convincing American companies that it's worth the risk correct starting

453
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 1: a business there. Talk about that.

454
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 5: Well, remember, by the way, I just want to remind

455
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 5: you all about Somalia all those years ago, right ten

456
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 5: or fifteen years ago, with the Somali pirates were operating

457
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 5: in the Red Sea, and then around there these are

458
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 5: Somali pirates like these are guys on little bloat boats

459
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,720
Speaker 5: with small guns who can at best jimmy up the

460
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,640
Speaker 5: side of a boat and capture it, right and then

461
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 5: that's not quite clear what they're going to do with

462
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 5: that afterwards.

463
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 2: This is the Iranian military.

464
00:22:57,840 --> 00:22:59,639
Speaker 5: This is a country of ninety three million people that

465
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 5: has to one hundred and fifty active tix, one hundred

466
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 5: and fifty thousand active tubes proof and another three hundred

467
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:06,639
Speaker 5: and fifty that they can draw on in reserve. So

468
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,439
Speaker 5: a million troops on the ground. This is a massive

469
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 5: army with a massive navy, navy and missiles. This is

470
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:16,400
Speaker 5: not from Ali pirates. Also the same situation with Venezuela,

471
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 5: we blockaded their oil. There was a sort of shadow

472
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 5: fleet that was moving oil because Venezuela is technically blockaded.

473
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:26,919
Speaker 5: But the axis of resistance which we talk about with

474
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:32,680
Speaker 5: Iran and Russia and North Korea actually involves Venezuela. Venezuela

475
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 5: was this node in that whole thing which has been lost.

476
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:40,640
Speaker 5: But for the moment, there's mayhem in this situation. As

477
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 5: far as oil getting around the world, here's the interesting thing.

478
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 5: Most of Venezuela's oil was going to China. It's China,

479
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 5: while it's got nuclear and solar and wind, also uses

480
00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:52,720
Speaker 5: more oil than anyone else does and needs more oil

481
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 5: at the moment because they can't. They can't get that oil.

482
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 5: We may have just made things better for Iran because

483
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 5: they've got it built in by for all the oil

484
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 5: that China was getting from Venezuela. So this just doesn't

485
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:07,399
Speaker 5: seem like anyone thought this out very well.

486
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,680
Speaker 2: And if they did, tell us right and clearly.

487
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 1: I mean, if we know one thing about Donald Trump,

488
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 1: he's never two moves ahead.

489
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 2: He's really just right where he is.

490
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:21,199
Speaker 1: We are also in a moment where US shipbuilding has

491
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 1: been way behind, so all of a sudden, we need

492
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 1: a navy that we don't really have, right because the

493
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:28,920
Speaker 1: shipbuilding has been into con.

494
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:33,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, and it's a weird situation to be waging either

495
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 5: war or needing a military presence in so many parts

496
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,720
Speaker 5: of the world as we currently do now. So we

497
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,120
Speaker 5: had these ships in Venezuela, then it took him a while.

498
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 5: They sailed through the strikes through Gibraltar into the Mediterranean,

499
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,239
Speaker 5: which it can now be used for Iran. Then we

500
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 5: took the Abraham Lincoln Strike Group, moved it into the

501
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 5: Red seat, and then we've got this tension in Asia.

502
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,159
Speaker 5: This would make sense if you're the non war president, right,

503
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,400
Speaker 5: you're the the FIFA beef prize winning president, the first

504
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 5: one in history. You're a contender for the Nobel Prize

505
00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 5: of apparently until Maschado gave Donald Trump hurt no belt.

506
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 2: Now he has one. So now he's got one.

507
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 5: Like, this is a weird position to be in if

508
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,880
Speaker 5: you're this administration. Right, The administration says we're not doing

509
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,399
Speaker 5: forever war. We're not going to be the worst. Wow,

510
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 5: we've got ruers and we don't have enough navy for

511
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 5: all the wars we either are in or might need

512
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 5: to be it.

513
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 1: The good news though, is FIFA is not going to

514
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 1: ask for that prize back.

515
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 2: Correct, weirdest thing in the world.

516
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 1: That, Yeah, it made a prize, you get to keep

517
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:32,200
Speaker 1: I think the theory here, though, is that Trump. Why Trump,

518
00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:34,880
Speaker 1: I think thinks he's successful is because he does these sort.

519
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 2: Of regime change.

520
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 1: Without regime change, you keep the regime in but you

521
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 1: make it look like you're changing it.

522
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:43,680
Speaker 5: But he can't do that, no, because it's really hard

523
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 5: and really complicated. So Venezuela, there's a Venezuelan diaspora that

524
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 5: would have been very supportive of Donald Trump getting rid

525
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,720
Speaker 5: of the community right, right, But he did it right

526
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 5: and and Venezuelan society is many layers deep, because this

527
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:01,120
Speaker 5: was not only Maduro but as before that, So for

528
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 5: decades it's been layers of everybody. So if you run

529
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 5: a museum or a nonprofit in Venezuela, you are you are.

530
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 5: Your fealty is to the party. That's just the way

531
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 5: it has to go. We learned this in We learned

532
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 5: this in Iraq. Right that you you thought you decapitated

533
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 5: the leader, but every institution in the country is people

534
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 5: who are are like minded. So that's the problem in Iran.

535
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 5: If you think Iraq was serious and you think Venezuela

536
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 5: is mired, Iraq's way more complicated than.

537
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:29,479
Speaker 2: That, right, because it's a religious state.

538
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:32,679
Speaker 5: So it's two parts. It's the religious state where this

539
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:34,440
Speaker 5: is the prevalent of the pope. Right, it's it's the

540
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 5: Iyatola is a religious leader thought to be divinely inspired, right,

541
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,160
Speaker 5: not like a president or prime minister. But on top

542
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 5: of that, the significant or an equal weight of power

543
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:49,439
Speaker 5: in Iran is the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which which is

544
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 5: involved in business, it's involved in religion, it's involved in

545
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 5: state craft, it's involved in the military. So you could

546
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 5: end up with a worse situation in Iran than you

547
00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 5: actually had. I'll remind you, and I have no love

548
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,239
Speaker 5: for the Iranian regime. They are murderous, they murder their

549
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 5: own people. But we were actually in negotiations with them

550
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:10,879
Speaker 5: one time. We actually got to deal with them one time.

551
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 5: We even might have been negotiating with them as recently

552
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 5: as last Thursday one time. Yeah, there's some dispute as

553
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 5: to what was going on. The Omanis and the Iranians

554
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 5: say that they were making progress. Steve whit Costs says

555
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 5: they weren't.

556
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 2: And if you.

557
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:27,120
Speaker 1: Can't trust a random real estate friend of Donald Trump's,

558
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 1: who can.

559
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 5: Is What a world?

560
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 4: Right?

561
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 5: What a world in which we're we're trying to weigh

562
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,879
Speaker 5: who do I actually believe in this whole thing? But

563
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 5: I will say I kind of believe the Omanis, who

564
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:36,440
Speaker 5: are the go betweens.

565
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 2: It's because they have no interest in lying about this.

566
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 5: In fact, they've been targeted by Iran now because they

567
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:46,439
Speaker 5: host an American base. So we had headroom, right, people

568
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 5: in the State Department who think about these things state,

569
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 5: we had headroom. We had more space to go before

570
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:53,679
Speaker 5: a war. A war really kind of needs to be

571
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 5: your last choice. Unless you think you can prosecute it

572
00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 5: very effectively, and it's lightning strikes and it's power, and

573
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,639
Speaker 5: it's done. Namely the last war that that happened in

574
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 5: it just doesn't happen anymore. Russia thought it was going

575
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 5: to be done in Ukraine in a week, if you recall, right,

576
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:13,440
Speaker 5: and we Donald Trump like it seems to be thinking

577
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 5: about this, and Pete Hextas seems to be thinking about

578
00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:17,919
Speaker 5: it like video game war. Yeah right, but this is

579
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 5: not how this goes.

580
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 1: No, And I mean, and we haven't had and the

581
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:26,359
Speaker 1: drone stuff is really game changing. I want you to

582
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,639
Speaker 1: talk though about the jobs numbers, because these jobs numbers

583
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 1: are bad.

584
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 2: Top us through them and explain what's going on.

585
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 5: So normally you should be creating one hundred and fifty

586
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 5: thousand new jobs a month as your floor. Three hundred

587
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:41,480
Speaker 5: is what you need to do to sort of grow

588
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:45,400
Speaker 5: your economy, right, because we have more people dying or

589
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 5: retiring than we have coming in. Now, we have the

590
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 5: Saddin troblem where we've stopped immigration for all intents and purposes,

591
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:53,800
Speaker 5: or we've scared immigrants into not working, or whatever the

592
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 5: case is. So you have a bigger problem. We locked

593
00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:01,239
Speaker 5: ninety two thousand jobs in February. Here's the rub. This

594
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 5: will now be the fifth month in a year that

595
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 5: we have lost GOG. But often it's because of revisions

596
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 5: that come after the fact. So on the job's day

597
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 5: you get the word that you created all these new jobs,

598
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 5: and then you know months later or the next month

599
00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:15,320
Speaker 5: you find out revise. Now we've lost jobs for five months.

600
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 5: That gets recession bells ringing in my head. So if

601
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:20,960
Speaker 5: you're going to have a recession, then you want to

602
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 5: make sure that your interest rates are under control, that

603
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 5: your economic growth is under control, that people don't have

604
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 5: to pay more for things than they should i e.

605
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 5: Tariffs Right, it's not doing the right thing. We haven't

606
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:34,440
Speaker 5: had a recession for a while. They are cyclical, they

607
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 5: come around, and now we're setting ourselves up for things.

608
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 5: The one thing that tends to offset recessions sometimes is war,

609
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 5: because we make the world's munitions right. So in fact,

610
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 5: Iran sends a missile up the interceptor, whether it's a

611
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 5: Patriot or a Thad, is an American made missile. But

612
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 5: ever since the war in Ukraine started, we have been

613
00:29:56,400 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 5: running our foundries which are here in America. Three shifts

614
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:03,400
Speaker 5: twenty four hours a day. You go to foundery in Pennsylvania,

615
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:06,720
Speaker 5: free shifts. So we're ammunition is running out around the world,

616
00:30:06,760 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 5: Missiles are running out around the world. Fads and patriots

617
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 5: are running out around the world. We are building all

618
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 5: of them. We build all the planes. All those Arab

619
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 5: countries that are fighting the war with Iran, they fly

620
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 5: at fifteens and f sixteens American made planes. So yes,

621
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 5: we could offset some of this. In fact, our unemployment

622
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 5: numbers would be higher because we actually have a wartime

623
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 5: economy right now that we have so many people building arms.

624
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 5: It may not be enough in this case. So Donald

625
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 5: Trump might be in a real pickle come November. We

626
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 5: might have a prolonged war or something going on in Iran.

627
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 5: I think he'd like it to be over. And now

628
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 5: he says eight weeks, We're.

629
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 2: Not eight weeks. And he may have a recession.

630
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 5: He's got a wildly unpopular government that the Zaxteme thing

631
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 5: doesn't go away for him. Yes, we saw for the

632
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 5: first time somebody bowing to pressure Donald Trump getting rid

633
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 5: of Christy. No, I don't think it's the last one

634
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 5: you're going to see. So now not looking good.

635
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 2: Will you come back anytime you want. I love talking

636
00:30:57,840 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 2: to you.

637
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 1: Dave Weigel is a reporter at setafore Welcome, Welcome, Dave.

638
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 4: It's good to be here. For having me.

639
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 1: This story is actually like become a really big story.

640
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,960
Speaker 1: So Texas is the first primary of the midterms, you know,

641
00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 1: along with North Carolina and also Arkansas.

642
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:23,400
Speaker 6: Yes, Arkansas. Everyone forgets Arkansas. There is a Democratic gain

643
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 6: in the state legislative race, but I didn't know any

644
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,000
Speaker 6: reporters who went there. Whoever they were going to get

645
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 6: one my case, tex Ethiopian Barbecue in Dallas.

646
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 1: Right, So three primaries and this primary, this Senate seat

647
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 1: is a really interesting primary. And I want you to

648
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 1: first talk about the Democratic part of the primary because

649
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 1: it's interesting but it's settled. Talk us through sort of

650
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 1: the forces at play there, because it's pretty interesting situation.

651
00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 6: In the Democratic primary. I don't probablyn't even the entire

652
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:55,920
Speaker 6: history of Democrats in Texas. They've not want anything in decades.

653
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 6: And Richardson, yeah, and richards and then there was a

654
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 6: one twenty nine to zero up wins Street.

655
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:03,240
Speaker 4: They've come close, batok close.

656
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 6: Ken Paxson, who's the Republican Attorney general running per Senate.

657
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 6: He almost lost in twenty teen, but they don't lose,

658
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 6: and so James Tallerico, who was a rising star in

659
00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:14,719
Speaker 6: the party. He flipped a suburban Austin seat North Austin

660
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 6: Williamson County in twenty eighteen and got reelected. He was

661
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 6: making noise that he would run again. Colin Alright, who

662
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 6: lost his twenty twenty four bit against tag Cruz, was

663
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 6: running again. It was them for a minute, and then

664
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 6: at the very end of filing, Jasmine Crockett got into

665
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 6: the race.

666
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 4: Colin Allred got out.

667
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:32,040
Speaker 6: Became a two person Democratic race, which actually was very

668
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 6: helpful to the party. I'm not trying to be the

669
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 6: pr man for Colin Alright, but he saved the Democrats

670
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 6: from a runoff by dropping out. He ran for his

671
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 6: old seat again, and the dynamic was that there were

672
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 6: two very well known Democrats, very big followings.

673
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 1: I just want to point something out in Texas, if

674
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 1: you don't get fifty percent, you have to go to

675
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 1: a runoff, even if you definitively win.

676
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 6: Yeah, if you get forty nine point eight percent and

677
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 6: the next person gets fifteen percent, you stole a runoff

678
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 6: and people have lost in that condition before, so it

679
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 6: became me sprint for three months between tall Rico and Crockett,

680
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 6: and he had already staffed up a very big campaign.

681
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 6: He had a very big social media following that from

682
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 6: TikTok to old fashion magazines and to TV. Crockett had

683
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 6: a very big following too, different kind of following, different

684
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 6: kind of reputation and different argument. They had the same policies.

685
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 6: They both wanted to break up Ice. They wanted to

686
00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 6: get rid of Christie Ome, which happened. That was one

687
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 6: of the big I noticed when I was a tallerco

688
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 6: his biggest applause line was in peach Christine Nome, So

689
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 6: he needs a new one. He ran just a better campaign,

690
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 6: but also more of an argument that he can flip

691
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 6: general election voters. But I don't want to downplay how

692
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 6: well Crockett did.

693
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 1: She did actually much better than the polling showed she

694
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 1: was going now better.

695
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 6: Well, So she she led in the polls that people

696
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:45,720
Speaker 6: knew she was and then she trailed at the end,

697
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 6: but she got more than a million votes. If you

698
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:50,640
Speaker 6: told any Texas Democrat in December JASMC. Crockett's going to

699
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 6: get a million votes, they'd assume she wins. Talla Rico

700
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 6: actually expanded the electorate very effectively in Latino areas and

701
00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 6: in suburbs.

702
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 4: She crushed him in cities anying were anywhere with.

703
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 6: Black voters, really so East Texas, Dallas and Parthy Houston.

704
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:07,720
Speaker 6: But she did not expand behind her base. But she

705
00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 6: turned she They were not wrong. Either of them were lying.

706
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 6: She said she could turn out her base, and she did.

707
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:13,799
Speaker 6: He said he could find new voters, and he did.

708
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:16,600
Speaker 1: I mean, and that is sort of like a lesson

709
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:19,839
Speaker 1: from Trump a little bit, which is Trump won by

710
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 1: growing the electorate. That's why they were secret Trump voters

711
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:24,840
Speaker 1: was because they were people. They were ones and twos,

712
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:28,759
Speaker 1: low frequency voters and that you couldn't pull for. And

713
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:31,360
Speaker 1: so what crockett theory of the case was that she

714
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 1: could over turn out her base the way that Trump

715
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:37,879
Speaker 1: did right where he got those Hispanic men. And tell

716
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:40,880
Speaker 1: Rico's case was that he could grow the electorate in

717
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 1: a different way.

718
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:43,239
Speaker 4: That was the case they were making.

719
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 6: They were also in some campaigns the Cans don't like

720
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 6: to talk about strategy. These candids did talk about strategy.

721
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 6: They articulated, like you said, and tell Rico thought there'd

722
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:54,239
Speaker 6: be a lot of people who voted for Trump or not,

723
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 6: so he wasn't saying people who don't vote.

724
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 2: And this is this.

725
00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:00,080
Speaker 6: Is something that Democrats have had several cycles of unlearning.

726
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 6: There was a very popular idea that this pool of

727
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 6: non voters around the country, if you just gave him

728
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 6: an aspiring message, they might turn out or not. I

729
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:09,839
Speaker 6: want to be two patronized. He told them like, we're

730
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 6: gonna give you Medicare for all, then they might turn out.

731
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 6: And data after twenty twenty four, I've not seen this contradicted,

732
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 6: but it's it's kind of blue rose. It's the more

733
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 6: centrist electability part of the Democrats have done this, but

734
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 6: I haven't seen progressive contradict It was no actually, non

735
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 6: voters know who don Trump is, would have voted for him.

736
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:27,719
Speaker 6: If it was Australia and every person had to vote

737
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:30,439
Speaker 6: legally or face a fine, Trump would one buy more.

738
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 6: And Talerico was out there saym Matt, I would say

739
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:33,880
Speaker 6: that because set it up.

740
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 4: But I was saying, they're just a lot.

741
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 6: Of your neighbors who've stopped listening to Democrats, and you,

742
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 6: the person of the audience, maybe haven't talked to them.

743
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 4: And I found this covering him.

744
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:44,319
Speaker 6: There'd be people who were voting for him, and I'd

745
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 6: ask where they got their their news, which is a

746
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:48,680
Speaker 6: very enlightening question. Typically, and they would talk about their

747
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 6: family members, who they avoid them on Facebook because they'll

748
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:53,959
Speaker 6: send them crazy in their view, crazy things, well probably

749
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 6: crazy things, you know, like AI generated stuff to make

750
00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:59,839
Speaker 6: their point. Or they would tell them that Republicans rel

751
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:02,239
Speaker 6: is to tell them they can't be a Catholic because

752
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 6: they're Democrats and Democrats love abortion. And they were recepted

753
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 6: this idea. Oh well, not just my relatives, but maybe

754
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 6: there's more people who want a less combative candidate, somebody

755
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:16,279
Speaker 6: who talks about his faith all the time. Now, that

756
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:18,400
Speaker 6: was not the crocket. Armen Crockett was making more of

757
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:20,879
Speaker 6: the old style. Everyone can see how bad things are

758
00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 6: under Trump, and I am such a charismatic receipts carrying

759
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 6: this the shield trum, but receipts receives carrying a candidate

760
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 6: that I will go out there and destroy Republicans with

761
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 6: the power of my arguments. That was also pretty compelling

762
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 6: for people, just one hundred thousand or so less fewer people.

763
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:38,760
Speaker 6: But those were the two cases they made, and that matters.

764
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:41,399
Speaker 6: I think because Republicans were ready to run against either

765
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 6: they wanted Crockett, they were ready get a run against

766
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:45,880
Speaker 6: either of them because they know and I'd talked to

767
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:49,279
Speaker 6: I'm talking about this. He's a very liberal Presbyterian. He

768
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 6: has used the teachings of Jesus to talk about trans writes,

769
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 6: non binary nature of God, how many genders there are,

770
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:58,880
Speaker 6: white supremacy, just ways that if you were growing a

771
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 6: candidate lab for Texas, you wouldn't have him say that stuff.

772
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 4: And he actually had.

773
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:02,719
Speaker 2: They dropped it.

774
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 6: He dropped out the primary. There was a more conservative

775
00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 6: Democrat in the primary who wasn't already who hit him

776
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 6: on that, and when he got in the race and

777
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:11,120
Speaker 6: then he couldn't raise any money, he dropped out, not

778
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:13,839
Speaker 6: saying he was more electable. But the Republicans are saying,

779
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 6: you might think this guy is going to appeal to

780
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:16,280
Speaker 6: your cousin.

781
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 4: We think that he will not.

782
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 6: We're going to make it him so famously liberal that

783
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 6: none of that will matter. And the Tallery argument is

784
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:25,760
Speaker 6: he's already has one for it, which is corporate media

785
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 6: wants you to be divided on stupid things and ignore

786
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:30,719
Speaker 6: the fact that they're wrecking the country from inside.

787
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 1: You know what, I want you to do a minute

788
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:37,120
Speaker 1: on all of the incumbents who lost in Texas. Chip

789
00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:40,280
Speaker 1: Broy's going to run off, but there's also Al Green.

790
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 1: I think Al Green's going to run off too. But

791
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:45,520
Speaker 1: just talk about the non power of incumbents.

792
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, most incumbents got renominated, but two kinds of

793
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 6: people who lost. One were one FETO type I guess

794
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 6: are the people who were in districts that Republicans redrew

795
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 6: and forced them into with their colleagues.

796
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:00,359
Speaker 4: That's how most Jerry Manderin works.

797
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 6: That's Julie Johnson in Dallas and Christian Menafie and Al

798
00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:07,439
Speaker 6: Green in Houston. Kalinad Red dropped out Senate, Rays started

799
00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 6: running again for this Dallas seat, and he ran ahead

800
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 6: of Johnson.

801
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:12,200
Speaker 4: That's a member of member race.

802
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:14,880
Speaker 6: Same thing. In Houston. Green did better than some people expected.

803
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 6: He actually he did worse than Houston, did better in

804
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 6: the suburbs where he I think was better known from

805
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:22,040
Speaker 6: his I think protesting every state union that Trump part

806
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:22,560
Speaker 6: of it tried to be.

807
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:25,400
Speaker 2: Green is also isn't He's seventy eight years old.

808
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 6: She is, I think a little bit younger than that,

809
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:30,360
Speaker 6: but he is in his late seventies, and this is

810
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 6: this is another issue, probably a beau time to get into.

811
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:33,800
Speaker 4: There are a number of not.

812
00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 6: Just Democrats, but Congressional Black Caucus members who are refusing

813
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 6: to retire at a furry advanced stage. I mean Maxie

814
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 6: Waters is the oldest in her in her late eighties

815
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:44,839
Speaker 6: at this point. But that was part of the issue

816
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 6: in the race. The way Green flipped it was that

817
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 6: crypto packs came in for Christian Memicry.

818
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:50,720
Speaker 2: He's seventy eight years old.

819
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 6: Seventy eight, you were right, Okay, yeah, wow, And it

820
00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 6: became pretty competitive. They're gonna have to spend more money

821
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 6: for a safe seat. The other kind of people who

822
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 6: lost were Republicans who had who had crossed Trump and

823
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 6: I want to rub the money. And you mentioned ship

824
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:06,400
Speaker 6: Roy Dan Crenshaw, who was given you Yeah, he was

825
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:09,160
Speaker 6: given new conservative precincts where if you were in those

826
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 6: areas you were less likely to have voted for Dan

827
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 6: Crenshaw in the past. You never had Maybe you weren't

828
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 6: were not aware of his media profile which he built

829
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 6: up for the years.

830
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:17,200
Speaker 4: And kind of had faded.

831
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:19,359
Speaker 6: He had a podcast, he had rallies, he had all

832
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:22,359
Speaker 6: this stuff to make him himself a conservative, but not

833
00:39:22,400 --> 00:39:25,759
Speaker 6: necessarily one hundred percent mega figure. His challenger, Steve Toath,

834
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 6: was a state a very conservative state senator who ran

835
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 6: against Crenshaw with Tucker Carlson argument that he is a

836
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 6: not Tucker's words, but it's been used by other people.

837
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 2: I Patrick McCain, that he's a neo.

838
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 6: Con he doesn't love America first, et cetera, et cetera,

839
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 6: et cetera. And Carlson actually gave tothe a long interview

840
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:43,799
Speaker 6: on his show. I guess he only does hour long

841
00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 6: plus interviews. But I don't know if Crenshaw was ever

842
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 6: ahead of that race, because it was a landslide defeat.

843
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:51,879
Speaker 6: He lost everything that was in Toat's old Senate district. Well,

844
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:54,520
Speaker 6: he's the first member for Congress to lose renomination and

845
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 6: handily and without a scandal or something, just for ideological reasons.

846
00:39:57,640 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 6: I would add to this list Tony Gonzalez, who was

847
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 6: going to be gone, a congressman from West Texas. Republicans

848
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 6: readrew his seat thinking they would be easy for him

849
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 6: to win, and then I don't know how familiar listeners

850
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:08,360
Speaker 6: are with his scandal.

851
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, Tony Gonzalez had an affair with the staffer, maybe

852
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:14,600
Speaker 1: sexually harassed her too.

853
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 2: She set herself on fire and died.

854
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 6: Yes, So it's a really good summary. Always was taking

855
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:22,239
Speaker 6: you much longer than say what was happening. Anyway, He

856
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:24,680
Speaker 6: already was in trouble because he'd voted for gun control

857
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 6: legislation after Viovalde massacre, which was in his district. He

858
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:31,080
Speaker 6: was facing a rematch with the Second Amendment influencer, which

859
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:32,319
Speaker 6: is a way to say this. You know this, this

860
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 6: YouTuber who shoots guns off and talks about his love

861
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 6: for World War two history, not just our side of

862
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:40,640
Speaker 6: World War Two, but up at the other side. And

863
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:43,840
Speaker 6: he was already competitive, and then he beat it. He

864
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:45,400
Speaker 6: beat him in the first round. They were going to

865
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 6: run off. Gonzales is not going to run for a

866
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 6: new term, So this guy, Branda Herreras is going to

867
00:40:50,600 --> 00:40:52,759
Speaker 6: be in Congress. That's the way Texas works. You pull

868
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:55,840
Speaker 6: out of your reelection the election's over on the margins.

869
00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:57,880
Speaker 6: That will probably hurt John Cornyn a little because this

870
00:40:58,040 --> 00:40:59,719
Speaker 6: was one of the parts of the state in the

871
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:03,800
Speaker 6: prime Mury that Cornyan did best in against Kem Paxton.

872
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:06,200
Speaker 6: And there's not going to be a Republican primary for

873
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 6: Congress anymore. Gonzal' is not trying to save himself, so

874
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 6: there's going to be a new very right wing Republican

875
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:14,799
Speaker 6: nominee in West Texas. Gonzale was saying I could win

876
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 6: and Democrats couldn't. But this is something I saw all

877
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:20,400
Speaker 6: over Texas. It is very tough to convince Republicans who

878
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 6: if you're forty five, you can't remember a Democrat winning

879
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:25,960
Speaker 6: in your state. Very tough to convince them. Oh, this

880
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 6: is the year when it's all going to fall apart.

881
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:31,919
Speaker 1: I want you to talk about this. Cornan Paxton race,

882
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:37,000
Speaker 1: Paxton trumpier than Trump right was impeached.

883
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 2: I would love me to.

884
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:41,400
Speaker 1: Just talk about for two seconds where he went around

885
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 1: to state senators and threatened them.

886
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:45,760
Speaker 2: Tell us about that, well.

887
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 6: State legislators of both kinds. So Taxa has been unfailable

888
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:52,239
Speaker 6: to his wife, accused of bribery by former employees of

889
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 6: his office, and he was impeached. And of course Texas

890
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:58,360
Speaker 6: Republicans run the state legislature, so his impeachment included a

891
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:00,080
Speaker 6: lot of Republicans voting against.

892
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:01,799
Speaker 2: Him and his wife, Angela.

893
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:05,160
Speaker 6: Yes, his wife a state senator, and he was acquitted

894
00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 6: in the Senate and got revenge on the Republicans vote

895
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:09,879
Speaker 6: against him. I was in the state for a little while.

896
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 6: In twenty twenty four, he and conservative donors went back

897
00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:16,120
Speaker 6: into these districts, including the Speaker of the House who

898
00:42:16,280 --> 00:42:18,719
Speaker 6: won but then retired. He was retiring now, and their

899
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 6: argument was basically, these are fake conservative, These fake conservatives

900
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 6: went against Ken Paxton. They went against this ally of

901
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:26,959
Speaker 6: Donald Trump, who helps him sue to overturn the twenty

902
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:29,399
Speaker 6: twenty election. I would just say that I keep talking

903
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 6: about Trump and MAGA, but also Paxton's one of the

904
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 6: conservative attorneys general who will act immediately when conservatives, let's

905
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:39,319
Speaker 6: say the turning point wing of the party won him

906
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:43,040
Speaker 6: to So you want to shut down abortion clinics, who

907
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:46,400
Speaker 6: he will sue. You want to ask hospitals for information

908
00:42:46,440 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 6: about transgender patients, he will do that.

909
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 4: He'll get the information.

910
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:53,360
Speaker 6: You want to sue media matters because they are writing

911
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:54,400
Speaker 6: unkind things about.

912
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:55,960
Speaker 2: Elon Musk, He'll do that too. Him.

913
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 6: He was one of the very active conservative movement ags

914
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 6: and he has a base from that. He did not

915
00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 6: run a very good primary campaign. He did the bare minimum,

916
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:07,359
Speaker 6: but he's still got forty. Talk about Cornan, Well, yeah,

917
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:09,799
Speaker 6: Cornyn is well, he's a little bit younger than Al Green.

918
00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:11,960
Speaker 6: He'd bilb eighty if he serves his full term. But

919
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:14,319
Speaker 6: he's going for a fifth term. The party had been

920
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:15,919
Speaker 6: moving away from him in a way that you've talked

921
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:18,839
Speaker 6: about and everyone's talked about. And he was the former

922
00:43:18,920 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 6: leader of Republicans Senate efforts and they like him. He's

923
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:25,080
Speaker 6: their colleague. JHN Thune likes him. Trump was different. He

924
00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 6: had criticized Trump in between his presidencies, but it wasn't

925
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 6: out there casting. You know, Lincoln Schafeye votes right. He

926
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 6: just was not liked Ted Cruz rushing in and taking

927
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 6: point on some conservative cause. He's been somebody that the

928
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:40,880
Speaker 6: movement wanted to beat for a while. And this primary

929
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:44,799
Speaker 6: was the most expensive for any incumbent Republican senator in history. Now,

930
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 6: remember the Tea Party movement helped beat a couple of

931
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 6: Republican incumbents a decade ago, decade plus ago, a lot

932
00:43:50,640 --> 00:43:53,040
Speaker 6: of money in that. This was more than eighty million

933
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:57,040
Speaker 6: dollars spent by mostly the Senate Leadership Fund its affiliates,

934
00:43:57,080 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 6: the super Pac. Donnell started at one Cornyn and portray

935
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:03,880
Speaker 6: him as a as a true magic conservative. Two to

936
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 6: go after Paxton very personal terms, and three to go

937
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:10,399
Speaker 6: after Wesley Hunt, this congressman from Houston who got into

938
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:13,279
Speaker 6: the race kind of famously, and I think Notice has

939
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:15,520
Speaker 6: good stuff about this. Famously just got tired of paying

940
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 6: congress God give it a safe seat and just was

941
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:20,880
Speaker 6: bored and wanted to either move into the administration or

942
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:21,680
Speaker 6: be a senator.

943
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 2: They beat him up. That was very helpful.

944
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 6: So what they wanted to do, and this has been

945
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:27,920
Speaker 6: playing out since Tuesday night, what the PAC.

946
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:28,279
Speaker 2: Wanted to do.

947
00:44:28,440 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 6: Corners reporters want to do is just make sure that

948
00:44:31,120 --> 00:44:33,799
Speaker 6: Cornan got more votes than Paxton the primary, so they

949
00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 6: could go back to Trump and say Paxton is not

950
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:37,680
Speaker 6: going to win the primary. If you want to be

951
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 6: a winner, since we're going to spend money for corn anyway,

952
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:44,239
Speaker 6: just go endorse Cornyn and this thing and Trump has given.

953
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 6: Trump has said he will make an endorsement. We don't

954
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 6: know who the bet is that he will be talked

955
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 6: into endorsing Corny, and he's done stuff like this before.

956
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:54,719
Speaker 6: In New Hampshire, Johnson UNU to the former senator, not

957
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:57,439
Speaker 6: the form of governor he's running. He had criticized Trump

958
00:44:57,480 --> 00:45:00,879
Speaker 6: throughout his his presidency. Scott Brown has run for US

959
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:03,680
Speaker 6: Senate and Brown is an ally, and Trump was convinced

960
00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:04,839
Speaker 6: to endorsement to Johnson Dodo.

961
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 1: I just want to talk about Paxton for a second,

962
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:11,280
Speaker 1: because Paxton is super nutty. He told Real America Voice

963
00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:13,880
Speaker 1: he's not going to drop out even if Trump endorses

964
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:15,760
Speaker 1: Cornyan again, who knows.

965
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:16,440
Speaker 2: But then he.

966
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 1: Tweeted that the only way he'll drop out is if

967
00:45:19,960 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 1: the if they kill the filibuster and pass the Save Act,

968
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 1: which there's about a million reasons why that will be undoable,

969
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:32,080
Speaker 1: the votes, etc. But a lot of people think that's

970
00:45:32,120 --> 00:45:34,120
Speaker 1: a political move talk us through that.

971
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 6: Yes, well, he's doing that because he wants to draw

972
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 6: attention to the fact that the Save Act, which Donald

973
00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 6: Trump wants, is not passing, and he wants to tell Trump,

974
00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:45,000
Speaker 6: you send me to the Senate and would I would

975
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:46,799
Speaker 6: vote to get rid of the filibuster to do what

976
00:45:46,880 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 6: you want, which is something that.

977
00:45:47,840 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 4: Trump asks for quite often. Trump did this in his

978
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:51,040
Speaker 4: first term.

979
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:52,959
Speaker 6: Hey we're not getting something through, I'm going to tweet

980
00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:54,960
Speaker 6: the which pear of the philibuster reporters would go to

981
00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:57,800
Speaker 6: Mitch McConnell, Ben John Thune now and they would say,

982
00:45:58,040 --> 00:46:00,880
Speaker 6: we're not going to do that. It's just this endless

983
00:46:01,200 --> 00:46:04,359
Speaker 6: or boroughs of react quotes about what Republicans are going

984
00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:06,279
Speaker 6: to say about not getting rid of the philibuster. They're

985
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 6: not going to get rid of it. Conservatives are tired

986
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:10,400
Speaker 6: of this. The turning point wing of the party would

987
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 6: love and this. Mike Lee, couple other Republicans who flipped

988
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:15,800
Speaker 6: because they were for the filibuster. Now they're for the

989
00:46:16,239 --> 00:46:19,319
Speaker 6: talking filibuster, which is their form Democrats wanted years ago.

990
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:21,080
Speaker 6: They want to get rid of it, and they have

991
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:24,239
Speaker 6: the confidence that it's not going to happen. I don't

992
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 6: think the cynical conservatives are incorrect here. There are people

993
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 6: like Susan Collins who have said, yes, I support the

994
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:33,800
Speaker 6: Save Act, I support citicismship check requirements for voting, and

995
00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:34,920
Speaker 6: and everything else in that bill.

996
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:37,480
Speaker 4: But asked them if we're the filibuster, they won't do it.

997
00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:39,080
Speaker 6: They just want to be on record that they're for

998
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:41,480
Speaker 6: passing this bill, and Conservats are sick of that.

999
00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:42,840
Speaker 2: They are like, no, that's what's.

1000
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:44,560
Speaker 6: The difference between not supporting it at all and saying

1001
00:46:44,600 --> 00:46:46,360
Speaker 6: you're going to support in some way that won't happen.

1002
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:48,799
Speaker 6: That's what Paxton's trying to get to send me to

1003
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:49,200
Speaker 6: the Senate.

1004
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:50,480
Speaker 4: And I'm going to be on Mike Lee. I'm not

1005
00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:51,840
Speaker 4: going to be a Jhon Cornyn.

1006
00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:53,880
Speaker 2: Yeah. So interesting.

1007
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 1: I think of you as like very smart and very

1008
00:46:57,120 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 1: on the ground and like that you see everything that's

1009
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:00,719
Speaker 1: going on.

1010
00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:02,359
Speaker 2: What do you think the chances are?

1011
00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 1: And I know this is a really mean question because

1012
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:07,200
Speaker 1: it's like asking candidate to raise their hand, but I'm

1013
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 1: going to do it anyway.

1014
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:09,960
Speaker 2: What do you think the chances are the Dems can

1015
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:10,760
Speaker 2: flip the Senate?

1016
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:13,360
Speaker 6: I would say twenty percent. I think they need to

1017
00:47:13,360 --> 00:47:17,120
Speaker 6: buy all terrible economic numbers today war in a run.

1018
00:47:17,440 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 6: There's a world like two thousand and six where their

1019
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:22,479
Speaker 6: bottom falls out of them because people are so tired

1020
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:23,279
Speaker 6: of how they're governing thing.

1021
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:25,240
Speaker 4: Because that's the world where I think Democrats win the Senate.

1022
00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:28,200
Speaker 1: But twenty percent is pretty good. You think Alaska is

1023
00:47:28,239 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 1: the key to that. They have to pick up everything

1024
00:47:30,719 --> 00:47:32,000
Speaker 1: right Alaska, Ohio.

1025
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 6: It basically be flip North Carolina, flip Main hold Michigan,

1026
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:41,080
Speaker 6: hold Georgia, flip Alaska, flip one of something else flipping

1027
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:43,640
Speaker 6: three seats. Losing nothing gets them fifty seats in the Senate.

1028
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 6: That prevents a lot of Republicans do but they would

1029
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:48,399
Speaker 6: still control the floor of the gabbles. Let's say there's

1030
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:50,879
Speaker 6: a Supreme Court opening, Replicans still do it. One more

1031
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:55,520
Speaker 6: person and they most often mentioned Iowa, Ohio, and Texas.

1032
00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:58,440
Speaker 6: One more win would mean that they control the Senate

1033
00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:00,160
Speaker 6: and they can block Trump for the rest of the two.

1034
00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 2: And the most likely movement that is Ohio.

1035
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:05,879
Speaker 6: Right, But this is the thing, and Republicans will say,

1036
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:08,680
Speaker 6: and they're self interested in saying so that if Paxton

1037
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:12,320
Speaker 6: is the nominee against tall Rico, then they think Texas

1038
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:14,880
Speaker 6: could flip. But you can hear they're self interested how

1039
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:17,279
Speaker 6: they're attacking right now. And I was trying to say

1040
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:21,600
Speaker 6: this before when describing the primary, that Republicans will tell

1041
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:23,719
Speaker 6: you that they want to run against Crockett, they were

1042
00:48:23,719 --> 00:48:26,200
Speaker 6: ready to run against tall Rico, saying that he's a

1043
00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:30,560
Speaker 6: woke liberal, fake Christian, et cetera, et cetera, he's actually evil.

1044
00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:32,880
Speaker 6: I've seen a couple Republicans say that because he's pro abortion,

1045
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:34,959
Speaker 6: they're doing that. They're saying he's kind of a liberal

1046
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:37,040
Speaker 6: whimp who we can beat easily. At the same time,

1047
00:48:37,160 --> 00:48:39,399
Speaker 6: they're trying to convince Trump that John Corny's the only

1048
00:48:39,400 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 6: guy who can beat him. It is not coherent, but

1049
00:48:41,880 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 6: you do not need to prove with an algebraic equation

1050
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:46,360
Speaker 6: to Trump. This is how it's going to happen. You

1051
00:48:46,400 --> 00:48:48,359
Speaker 6: just need to be in the room, make the best sale,

1052
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:49,920
Speaker 6: and get him to say something that's hard for him

1053
00:48:49,920 --> 00:48:50,399
Speaker 6: to take back.

1054
00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:51,360
Speaker 4: That's what they're trying to do.

1055
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:53,600
Speaker 6: Just please say enough in the room with Trump that

1056
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 6: he decides that he needs to endorse a corner. That

1057
00:48:56,680 --> 00:48:59,480
Speaker 6: is the whole game there. Republicans do think Paxton versus

1058
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:02,280
Speaker 6: tall Rica. So even though they're attacking now, if Paxton's

1059
00:49:02,280 --> 00:49:04,160
Speaker 6: a nominee, it'd have some trouble raising money.

1060
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:05,400
Speaker 4: To Tylerico is a good candidate.

1061
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:07,719
Speaker 6: They could lose it so that I would say that

1062
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:10,879
Speaker 6: would become the fourth likeliest thing to flip after Alaska.

1063
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:12,839
Speaker 2: Wow, thank you, thank you, thank you.

1064
00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 4: Dave, thank you so much.

1065
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:17,080
Speaker 2: No mo.

1066
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:23,560
Speaker 3: Jesse Cannon, so Molly, we got bury you louder Milk

1067
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:25,840
Speaker 3: a character I feel like just shows up kind of

1068
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 3: as a cameo from season to season. He wants to

1069
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 3: go after charges for Cassidy Hutchinson if you remember from

1070
00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:36,040
Speaker 3: the January sixth hearings, Yes, I.

1071
00:49:36,000 --> 00:49:40,080
Speaker 1: Saw that, and I'm not surprised. Very louder Milk, you'll

1072
00:49:40,120 --> 00:49:43,520
Speaker 1: remember Barry louder Milk being the member of Congress that

1073
00:49:43,640 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 1: Mikey Cheryl came on this podcast and said, was remember

1074
00:49:47,719 --> 00:49:48,520
Speaker 1: giving tours.

1075
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 2: I do remember this. Yep.

1076
00:49:50,200 --> 00:49:55,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, Look, Cassidy Hutchinson is this very young girl who

1077
00:49:55,480 --> 00:50:01,640
Speaker 1: worked in MAGA who came out and testified against McCarthy.

1078
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:04,440
Speaker 1: Like it's just an insane thing to do, but you know,

1079
00:50:04,560 --> 00:50:06,680
Speaker 1: this is what they're doing. They're trying to target people.

1080
00:50:06,760 --> 00:50:09,760
Speaker 1: But I do think it's interesting they've had so little

1081
00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:14,560
Speaker 1: success targeting people. I mean, it's just you know, yeah,

1082
00:50:14,560 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 1: she's twenty nine years old. I've met her before. She's

1083
00:50:16,960 --> 00:50:21,000
Speaker 1: really a sweet girl. But you know, they want to

1084
00:50:21,040 --> 00:50:24,200
Speaker 1: scare people. They want to prevent people from speaking about this.

1085
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:24,720
Speaker 2: Admin.

1086
00:50:25,600 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in

1087
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:35,720
Speaker 1: every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday to hear the best

1088
00:50:35,800 --> 00:50:40,120
Speaker 1: minds and politics make sense of all this chaos. If

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Speaker 1: you enjoy this podcast, please send it to a friend

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Speaker 1: and keep the conversation going.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening.