1 00:00:00,560 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: Hi, and welcome to What Goes Up a weekly markets podcast. 2 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:19,840 Speaker 1: UM Voldana hire across Asset Report at Bloomberg, and I'm 3 00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:23,120 Speaker 1: Crystal Kim, Crypto reporter at Bloomberg, filling in for Mike 4 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: Reagan and this week on the show. Wall Street forecasters 5 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 1: have been saying all year that a slowdown in the 6 00:00:28,840 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 1: bullmarket will be in the cards thanks to any number 7 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:34,560 Speaker 1: of reasons. The average projection for the SMP at the 8 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:38,839 Speaker 1: end of represents a mere three percent advance from current levels. 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 1: We'll get into all of that with a first time guest, 10 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:44,560 Speaker 1: but first, Crystal, I want to welcome you to the show. 11 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 1: Thanks so much for joining us, Thank you, thank you 12 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:51,600 Speaker 1: a lot to be grateful for joining you on this podcast. 13 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 1: The endless number of pies waiting to be eaten, and 14 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 1: of course what will be served up hot at Thanksgiving 15 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 1: UM this year is the conversation. From what I read, 16 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 1: seems like the talk around the Turkey will be crypto. 17 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 1: UM Macy's isn'to n f t S, so is the 18 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:11,560 Speaker 1: NFL and Odell Beckham Jr. Martha Stewart is into it. 19 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:14,679 Speaker 1: Quentin Tarantino is into it. N f d s have 20 00:01:14,800 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 1: become an all encompassing subject and it'll be fun to discuss. 21 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 1: Maybe we can get into all of that with our 22 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: guests as well. I want to bring in Candice Banks, 23 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 1: and she's a portfolio manager of Global asset Allocation at 24 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:30,199 Speaker 1: Fierra Capital and Nnchial. Candice, thanks so much for joining 25 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 1: us this week. Hey, thanks for having me. Just to 26 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 1: start out, I'm hoping you can just lay out your 27 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 1: strategy for us, what sectors and areas of the market 28 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:41,319 Speaker 1: you're favoring right now, and then how you're starting to 29 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 1: think about two as the year closes out. Yeah. Absolutely. 30 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 1: While our base case scenario is calling for a reflationary recovery, 31 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:56,840 Speaker 1: this is essentially an extension of the post pandemic recovery 32 00:01:57,040 --> 00:02:01,640 Speaker 1: that inevitably results in appear an extended period of strong 33 00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 1: and above trend global growth. Now in our base case UM, 34 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 1: this visibility of the cycle is extended UM, given that 35 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 1: policymakers take a very measured and gradual approach to policy 36 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:21,640 Speaker 1: normalization UM and essentially supporting the economy going forward. So 37 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 1: this is very much a supportive backdrop for financial markets 38 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 1: in particularly stocks, over the next twelve to eighteen months UM. Obviously, 39 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: you know there's been talk about the global economy um 40 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 1: you know, moderating here, but the fact of the matter 41 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 1: is that it has peaked at a very elevated levels. 42 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: And um, you know, like I said, we'll remain strong 43 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 1: and above trend um without the fear of you know, 44 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 1: premature and aggressive policy normalization that would derail that recovery 45 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:54,800 Speaker 1: going forward. So we remain quite constructive on the global 46 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 1: economic outlook. UM. We think the devish reaction function from 47 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 1: central banks and the increased tolerance for higher inflation will 48 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 1: allow for that more cautious and gradual approach to policy 49 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 1: normalization in the coming twelve eighteen months, and together this 50 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:15,639 Speaker 1: will um again create um, you know, a favorable backdrop 51 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,920 Speaker 1: for stocks versus bond. Now that being said, we do 52 00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 1: expect a more challenging environment for equities in the next 53 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 1: in the coming year. We've obviously come off a very 54 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:31,800 Speaker 1: strong period of UM out performance and and very robust 55 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 1: results in the global equity landscape since the lows of 56 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 1: March twenty but also here in alone, and our sense 57 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 1: is that you know, there's fewer obvious catalysts that will 58 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 1: push equity markets significantly higher from here, and that the 59 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 1: fundamental tail winds that supported equity markets in the last 60 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 1: eighteen nineteen months have deteriorated somewhat, and as a result, 61 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 1: you know, while we don't expect a recession or a 62 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 1: bear market for that matter, UM, we do expect more 63 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 1: muted and volatile equity market returns going forward after the 64 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 1: extended stretch of gained since those UM, those march loads. 65 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 1: So here are a couple of factors to think about UM. 66 00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 1: You know, given um our outlook I mentioned UM, you know, 67 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,640 Speaker 1: the fundamental backdrop, and our senses that when we go 68 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:26,320 Speaker 1: down the list, the downside risks are beginning to outweigh 69 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:30,840 Speaker 1: the potential for positive surprise, particularly given that much of 70 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,840 Speaker 1: the good news UH pertaining to the macro backdrop has 71 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 1: likely been priced in at these elevated levels, and this, 72 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 1: in our view, could leave some scope for more volatility 73 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:47,360 Speaker 1: disappointment UM unwanted volatility UM should something go awry. So 74 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 1: on the fundamental friend I mentioned, the strong recovery earnings 75 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 1: have been soaring, but our senses that you know, the 76 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 1: strong recoveries have likely already been discounted. And this comes 77 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 1: on the heels of an vironment of rising input prices 78 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 1: inflation UM rising wages UM, as the job market continues 79 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:10,720 Speaker 1: to recover. All of this has the potential to squeeze 80 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 1: profit margins. So some vulnerability on the profit front, and 81 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 1: I think most critically is on the policy front. UM. 82 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 1: And we've passed the point of peak stimulus, and this 83 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:25,480 Speaker 1: is going to UM create some uncertainty and some unwanted 84 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:30,800 Speaker 1: volatility as policymakers transition from that extremely accommodative stance towards 85 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:35,919 Speaker 1: something less accommodative and incrementally so and while we're not 86 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 1: moving to restrictive policy UM or even neutral UH for 87 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 1: you know, for that matter, in the next year, UM, 88 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:48,000 Speaker 1: that shift from extreme accommodation to something less supportive. Typically 89 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,599 Speaker 1: UM does inject a little bit of volatility in the market. 90 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:54,600 Speaker 1: So taken together, UM, you know those factors, whether it's 91 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:59,839 Speaker 1: buoyant earnings expectations, intensifying pressure on margins UM and limited 92 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:05,479 Speaker 1: go for further pe expansion. UM. You know basically has 93 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:10,280 Speaker 1: UM you know, UH given us them, you know, an 94 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 1: opportunity to take some profits and adopt a more neutral 95 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 1: stance on equity market for for the time being. Kennessy said, 96 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:22,400 Speaker 1: so many great things, and I want to get into 97 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 1: like every element of what you've said, but I want 98 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 1: to start at the top with UM, with your stance UM, 99 00:06:30,040 --> 00:06:33,919 Speaker 1: your economic base case of a reflationary recovery. I was 100 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:39,159 Speaker 1: wondering if this week's market events thus far affirm your view. Namely, 101 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:44,040 Speaker 1: I'm referencing the largely anticipated continuity and FED leadership and 102 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 1: thus the continuity of the Fed's posture. Yeah. Absolutely, I 103 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:54,000 Speaker 1: think the the outcome of the nomination process has reinforced 104 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 1: that base case for reflationary recovery. Essentially, like you said, UM, 105 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:01,479 Speaker 1: you know, given that you know Paleal is you know, 106 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 1: back in the chair position for another four years. UM. 107 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 1: Really for us, UM, you know, reinforces the UM status 108 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:12,680 Speaker 1: quo UM from that perspective. So a little bit more 109 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 1: visibility on on that front. So again consistent with UM, 110 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:21,480 Speaker 1: you know, the narrative where policymakers do adopt or UM 111 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 1: you know, take that more pragmatic approach to policy normalization. 112 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:29,559 Speaker 1: So encouraging in that respect. And Kenness, I was hoping 113 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 1: you would sort of walk us through your thinking about 114 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 1: some areas of international markets that you might be preferring 115 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:39,920 Speaker 1: right now. In particular, I think in one of your 116 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:44,200 Speaker 1: recent notes you said you like Canadian stocks and Japanese stocks, 117 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 1: if you wouldn't mind just going over how you're thinking 118 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 1: about things internationally. Yeah, So, while we're neutral overall from 119 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 1: an equity perspective, we do see particular pockets of opportunity 120 00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:59,679 Speaker 1: in UM, you know, certain corners of the market, namely 121 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 1: the a cyclical value space. So as we all know, 122 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 1: you know, the growth defensive stocks have done extremely well 123 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: UM with interest rates you know, uh tumbling to rock 124 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 1: bottom levels. This has basically boosted the valuations of these 125 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 1: growth talk growth stocks, particularly in the tech space UM 126 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: over the last UM you know, eighteen or nineteen months, 127 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 1: and a lot of that was a result of all 128 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 1: of the liquidity that was being injected into the market 129 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 1: by central banks UM, you know, back during the depths 130 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:34,440 Speaker 1: of the pandemic. Now, with earnings UM acting as more 131 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 1: of a driver, the global economy is on solid ground. 132 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 1: UM inflation obviously accelerating interest rates are rising in response, 133 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 1: we expect UM that rotation from the growth towards the 134 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 1: value space to take hold, and this is where we 135 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 1: see an opportunity going forward. From a valuation perspective alone, 136 00:08:56,240 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 1: UM you know, looks like a favorable backdrop for these UM, 137 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 1: you know, cyclical value corner corners of the markets. When 138 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 1: you think about UM, steeper yield curves boosting financial stocks, 139 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 1: higher commodity prices across the board, boosting the resource sectors. UM. 140 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:17,760 Speaker 1: This essentially UM underscores our preference for Canadian stocks given 141 00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:21,839 Speaker 1: the composition of the Canadian stock market, which is about 142 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 1: two thirds of these value oriented cyclical sectors of the market. 143 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:30,760 Speaker 1: So that's how we play that UM you know, cyclical 144 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:43,720 Speaker 1: value opportunity within the global equity space. I thought it 145 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 1: was interesting that in your base case for stocks next year, 146 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 1: for US large caps specifically, you forecast minus twelve point 147 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:56,559 Speaker 1: five UM UH, Canadian large cap is does better than that, 148 00:09:56,880 --> 00:10:01,200 Speaker 1: and I wondered if that bakes in the sumption that 149 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:06,439 Speaker 1: value does better than growth in both regions. So the 150 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,679 Speaker 1: matrix that you're referring to in the expected returns are 151 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:14,320 Speaker 1: all in Canadian dollars. So the reason that sp expectation 152 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 1: looks so dire is because we expect the US dollar 153 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:20,280 Speaker 1: to weekend in the next year in the Canadian dollar 154 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 1: to strength, and so that's actually the currency impact you're 155 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 1: seeing there when it comes to the spire though UM 156 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:29,960 Speaker 1: we have exceeded our target. We have a forty target, 157 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 1: so the total return is still negative or the total 158 00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 1: expected return, and we still expect some modest upside in 159 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:41,080 Speaker 1: Canadian stock. So it's a relative play between Canada and 160 00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 1: the US. And like I said, from a valuation perspective, 161 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 1: the Canadian market has rarely traded this um at this 162 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 1: size of a discount to the US, and given that 163 00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 1: composition and the value oriented bias of the T s X, 164 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 1: we think this is UM you know, offering more compelling 165 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 1: opportunities for equity upside going forward. And then as Crystal mentioned, 166 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:05,960 Speaker 1: we did have the Powell news earlier this week, but 167 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 1: the other news that's sort of also happening in the 168 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 1: background and happening internationally is the rise in COVID cases, 169 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 1: especially in Europe and some of the headlines that we're 170 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:17,880 Speaker 1: seeing there. So I'm wondering how you're thinking about that. 171 00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:20,520 Speaker 1: I know JP Morgan had a NOE doubt earlier this 172 00:11:20,559 --> 00:11:24,199 Speaker 1: week saying that this new wave is unlikely to be 173 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:26,880 Speaker 1: a material problem for stocks, So how are you thinking 174 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:29,959 Speaker 1: about it? Yes, so I think it adds to that 175 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 1: narrative where the risks are mounting at a time when 176 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:38,440 Speaker 1: you know the markets are largely pricing a lot of 177 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 1: good news UM. While we don't think that these subsequent 178 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:48,720 Speaker 1: waves of the coronavirus will derail the economic expansion UM, 179 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:51,680 Speaker 1: it is something that we need to monitor because of 180 00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:55,440 Speaker 1: course it could UM stall the recovery, like I said, 181 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:58,280 Speaker 1: but not to derail it all together. Whether it's given 182 00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 1: the high vaccination rates, the UM the fact that you know, hospitalizations, 183 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:08,439 Speaker 1: mortalities have UM remained very subdued even in the UM 184 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 1: in the wake of these subsequent waves just tells us 185 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 1: that we're not likely to see that recession scenario even 186 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 1: in the wake of more stringent countermeasures. But that being said, 187 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 1: it is something that I think you'll see more UM 188 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:28,400 Speaker 1: you know, from a financial market volatility perspective. Again, just 189 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:33,199 Speaker 1: something for investors to contemplate UM and like I said, 190 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:37,240 Speaker 1: the potential for whether it's you know, you know, some 191 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 1: lockdowns or UM you know, fear of UM you know, 192 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 1: traveling or going out again. If you get some of 193 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:48,760 Speaker 1: that UM you know that M deterioration and confidence that 194 00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 1: could potentially UH damp in growth kind of similar to 195 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:54,960 Speaker 1: what we saw in the third quarter UM of this year. 196 00:12:55,880 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 1: But nonetheless we don't expect that to derail or to 197 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 1: impact our base case scenario. But I think, like I said, 198 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 1: you'll see it more through UM the lens of the 199 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 1: financial markets and volatility. UM, you know, as these headlines 200 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 1: UM you know, hit the hit the screen. Going back 201 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 1: to your base case of a reflationary recovery, I thought 202 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 1: it interesting that your firm put it at a fifty 203 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 1: probability if I have that right, UM, what would have 204 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:27,400 Speaker 1: to happen to give you all greater than a coin 205 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 1: toss conviction? UM about a reflationary recovery? Yeah, So the 206 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 1: difference between our top two scenarios really hinges on the 207 00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:42,319 Speaker 1: policymaker response. So in that reflationary recovery scenario, we're essentially 208 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:47,560 Speaker 1: assuming that that UM you know, that devish bias from 209 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 1: central banks, and that tolerant for inflation to run above 210 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,720 Speaker 1: target for an extended period of time UM allows for 211 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:58,280 Speaker 1: a slower and more gradual approach policy normalization. And like 212 00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:01,960 Speaker 1: I said, that's essentially UM you know what has reinforced 213 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:05,080 Speaker 1: our strong outlook for the global economy and of course 214 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:09,600 Speaker 1: UM you know financial markets broadly. Now, the risk to 215 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 1: that scenario is if policymakers basically step in prematurely UM 216 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:19,760 Speaker 1: start to panic given some of these elevated inflation numbers 217 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 1: that we've been seeing, and start to tighten monetary policy, 218 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 1: in our view, something that would be prematurely. This would 219 00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 1: in in response, likely dampen the recovery, if not derail 220 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 1: it all together. And that's I think UM the policy 221 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 1: error that people should be thinking about. You know, you've 222 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 1: I've seen a number of headlines about the policy air 223 00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: being allowing inflation to run at these levels without stepping in. 224 00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 1: I think the policy air at this point would be 225 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 1: stepping in prematurely and derailing the recovery at a time 226 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 1: when it is still UM vulnerable. What happens to US 227 00:14:55,320 --> 00:15:00,120 Speaker 1: stocks if that happens, stock mark is in general UM 228 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 1: would sell off in that in that UM stag inflationary scenario. 229 00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 1: So that's what about that second scenario that you're referring 230 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:09,880 Speaker 1: to as stag inflation. And in that scenario, UM, it's 231 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 1: UM an unfortunate outcome not only for stocks but also 232 00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:15,880 Speaker 1: for bonds because of course interest rates would be rising 233 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:21,560 Speaker 1: quite aggressively as well. So UM very much a risky 234 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:24,520 Speaker 1: scenario for financial markets in general. And it all really 235 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 1: hinges on that policy response, which is very difficult to forecast, 236 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 1: to navigate. UM. You know, you see a lot of 237 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 1: different headlines, many different policymakers speaking, um, you know, some 238 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 1: more hawkish than others. That's why those probabilities are so close, 239 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 1: because there is very much, um, a lot of uncertainty 240 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 1: as to how this will all shake out in the 241 00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 1: next twelve the eighteen months. I'm glad you mentioned that, 242 00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 1: but you did steal my question because I was going 243 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:54,120 Speaker 1: to ask you if you and your team have projections 244 00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 1: for what we can expect for interest rate hikes from 245 00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:59,600 Speaker 1: the Fed. I know. John Author's a Bloomberg opinion had 246 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 1: a column this week saying it's a little bit perplexing 247 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 1: the way the markets reacted to the Power renomination because 248 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 1: Brainard actually tends to vote in the same way the 249 00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 1: Pole does. So how should we be thinking about that? Yeah, 250 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:18,440 Speaker 1: when it comes to the trajectory for UM FED funds, 251 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:23,360 Speaker 1: we are much more dubbish than the market. UM. Following 252 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 1: the UM renomination of Chair Powell, markets are pricing I believe, 253 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:33,120 Speaker 1: close to five rate hikes over um, you know, three, 254 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:38,160 Speaker 1: which we think is overdone. Um. Given the you know, 255 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 1: given again the narrative where policymakers UM will take that 256 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 1: cautious approach. UM, we expect UM only one rate hike 257 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 1: from the Fed in two obviously in the back half, 258 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:58,880 Speaker 1: because of course by the mid midway through UM our 259 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 1: senses that in play shin those that acceleration will have receded. 260 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 1: And while we still expect inflation to be sustainably above target, 261 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 1: we think the focus then we'll shift to the labor market, 262 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:12,840 Speaker 1: and that's where there's still some significant flack. And that's 263 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 1: also another precondition for policymakers to start lifting rates UM, 264 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:21,159 Speaker 1: you know, from these rock bottom levels. So again, you know, 265 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:25,600 Speaker 1: when you bring in that bias to allow UM inflation 266 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,960 Speaker 1: to run at these levels for UM longer than may 267 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 1: have typically been the case. After ten years of underperforming 268 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:35,679 Speaker 1: the inflation target, our senses that policy makers will be 269 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 1: in a position to take a slow approach to policy normalization. 270 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 1: And therefore, you know, my um, my interpretation is that 271 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:47,280 Speaker 1: the markets UM are leaning a little bit too hawkish 272 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:48,879 Speaker 1: and I've gotten a little bit ahead of themselves from 273 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:52,040 Speaker 1: a policy's perspective, and we see that here in in 274 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:55,919 Speaker 1: the Canadian market as well as similar a similar narrative. 275 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 1: All Right, it seemed to me that earlier this week, Uh, 276 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:04,440 Speaker 1: and gold was backing off and the hedges were coming off, 277 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:07,240 Speaker 1: and and I wanted to ask you what are good 278 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 1: inflation hedges these days? I mean, I would say gold 279 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:13,720 Speaker 1: actually broke out of its down trend here just in 280 00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:15,760 Speaker 1: the last few weeks. I mean, it's been a tough 281 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:20,080 Speaker 1: year for gold in and you know, investors are starting 282 00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:23,360 Speaker 1: to threat about that inflation outlook. And in the last 283 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 1: few weeks we've seen gold turn UM decidedly higher UM 284 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:31,120 Speaker 1: in response as investors seek that hedge in an inflationary environment. 285 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 1: Went again. UM. You know, if we're right and policymakers 286 00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:39,520 Speaker 1: take a very gradual and you know, measured approach to 287 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:43,359 Speaker 1: policy normalization, suggests that real interest rates are going to 288 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 1: remain in negative terrain. And this is obviously also a 289 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: tail wind for gold. UM. That being said our view 290 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 1: and at Fierira, UM, you know, we feel that real 291 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 1: assets UM, you know, such as real estate, agriculture, infrastructure, 292 00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:03,639 Speaker 1: for vibe UM the best hedge to inflation over the 293 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:06,639 Speaker 1: long term. UM. You know, we expect inflation will remain 294 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:09,680 Speaker 1: above two percent target not only in the next twelve 295 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,120 Speaker 1: the eighteen months, but over the next three or four years. 296 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 1: As well. So that's just really um, you know, reinforces 297 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:19,639 Speaker 1: the need for real assets in a well balanced portfolio. 298 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 1: It's interesting you mentioned those things because I've been I 299 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 1: had actually been working on a story for Business Week 300 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 1: about some of the best inflation hedges that people had 301 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:47,320 Speaker 1: mentioned farmland to me, and they mentioned cattle and things 302 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 1: like that. Some of these things I frankly had never 303 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:53,399 Speaker 1: heard of as inflation hedges before. And then Crystal, I 304 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:55,879 Speaker 1: know you and I haven't talked too much about your 305 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:58,360 Speaker 1: new beat yet, but you do cover crypto and bitcoin, 306 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 1: and cryptocurrencies come up quite a bit in this conversation. 307 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:03,679 Speaker 1: I don't know, Candice, if a lot of your clients 308 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,399 Speaker 1: are asking you about that as well. It just seems 309 00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 1: like this big hot topic these days. Yeah, it's definitely 310 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 1: something we're seeing more in the headlines these days. From 311 00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 1: an ass allocation perspective, we are not, um, you know, 312 00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:19,439 Speaker 1: deploying capital towards the SASA class right now. Lots of 313 00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:22,440 Speaker 1: speculation built around that and you know, very little in 314 00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 1: the way of tangible value. So I think, um, you know, 315 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,920 Speaker 1: from our from our perspective, UM, you know, not something 316 00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:32,040 Speaker 1: that we're looking at, UM, you know, proactively at this point, 317 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,240 Speaker 1: I hear you. I mean, though, if we're tapped out 318 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:38,400 Speaker 1: in terms of return or yield in traditional places, we've 319 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:41,480 Speaker 1: got to find them somewhere else. So if not in crypto, 320 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,879 Speaker 1: where can we go? That is a fantastic question. And 321 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:49,359 Speaker 1: you know, I've talked about a very challenging backdrop for 322 00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:52,680 Speaker 1: both stocks and bonds in the coming year. Um, as 323 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:55,320 Speaker 1: I already mentioned, you know, while we don't expect the 324 00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:59,399 Speaker 1: bearer market or recession for that matter, the easy money 325 00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:03,320 Speaker 1: has been made in global stock markets, so those similar 326 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 1: double digit returns are gonna be tough to come by 327 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 1: going forward. At the same time, given our interest right forecast, 328 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:12,000 Speaker 1: particularly at the long end of the curve, you know, 329 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:16,199 Speaker 1: the expected returns in traditional bonds, which are supposed to 330 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:20,919 Speaker 1: be this you know, the stability and the income generating 331 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:24,119 Speaker 1: aspect of the of a balanced portfolio. Um you know, 332 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 1: we're expecting negative returns and we've already seen minus five 333 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:31,840 Speaker 1: percent here in one alone, and expect something similar for two. 334 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 1: So with that, you know, given the you know, unfavorable 335 00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:40,480 Speaker 1: return prospects and those traditional bond and equity as a classes, 336 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 1: this really, you know, reinforces the need to diversify a 337 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,680 Speaker 1: portfolio into the private alternative space. So this is where 338 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:49,960 Speaker 1: those um real asset strategies come into play, whether it's 339 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:55,560 Speaker 1: real estate, agriculture, infrastructure, UM, private lending. Obviously you're getting 340 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:59,480 Speaker 1: that nice income stream and the stability um of fixed 341 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 1: income without the well like the negative return expectation and 342 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:08,160 Speaker 1: that that we're expecting for traditional bonds given our expectation 343 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:11,639 Speaker 1: for interest. Right, So I think these asset these private alternative, 344 00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:16,200 Speaker 1: non traditional sources of income will uh provide a very 345 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:20,920 Speaker 1: important part in a well balanced portfolio from an income perspective, um, 346 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:25,160 Speaker 1: you know, without imploding the volatility of a well balanced portfolio. 347 00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 1: These are typically more stable strategies. But importantly they also 348 00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:31,960 Speaker 1: have a low correlation to traditional asset classes, so in 349 00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 1: a well balanced portfolio, they would tend to reduce your 350 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 1: overall portfolio risks. And I want to ask you one 351 00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,679 Speaker 1: more question before we get into our weirdest thing. And 352 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 1: as Crystal mentioned at the top of this show, there's 353 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 1: a lot to talk about there in terms of Thanksgiving 354 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,320 Speaker 1: and Krypton, all these other things happening this week, But 355 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:52,760 Speaker 1: the one thing we really haven't talked about yet is 356 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,159 Speaker 1: the state of the consumer. I know, I get a 357 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:58,639 Speaker 1: lot of reports about holiday shopping trends. And then we 358 00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 1: also had Arnie from the you know, big box walmarts 359 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:07,520 Speaker 1: and targets and all of them have been passing cost 360 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:11,040 Speaker 1: increases onto the consumer and so on. So how much 361 00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:14,200 Speaker 1: of everything is dependent on the state of the consumer 362 00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,840 Speaker 1: and the well being of the consumer. Well, our senses 363 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:20,280 Speaker 1: that the consumer continues to drive the recovery and it's 364 00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:25,400 Speaker 1: an instrumental source of you know, a strong economy, particularly 365 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:27,960 Speaker 1: in the in the US, but also here in Canada 366 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:30,520 Speaker 1: and globally as well. And the good news is that 367 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:35,719 Speaker 1: the consumer right now does have some ammunition to rising prices. 368 00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:40,439 Speaker 1: You look at the abundance of savings um that have 369 00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:44,680 Speaker 1: been stashed over the last you know, several months UM 370 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 1: that are right for spending. As you know, the consumer 371 00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:51,680 Speaker 1: goes out, resumes resumes those normal activities, whether it's taking 372 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:55,480 Speaker 1: a vacation or um you know, spending more money on 373 00:23:55,520 --> 00:24:00,080 Speaker 1: the services side, going out to restaurants, etcetera. UM sour 374 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:03,359 Speaker 1: census that the consumer will continue to you know, be 375 00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:07,480 Speaker 1: a driving force for the economy. At the same time, 376 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:09,960 Speaker 1: you know, the job market, in our view, will continue 377 00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:13,920 Speaker 1: to improve wages will be um on the rise. Already 378 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 1: in some parts of the market we're seeing some sizable 379 00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:19,080 Speaker 1: wage games. So all of this taken together, Um, you know, 380 00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 1: reinforces are positive. Outlook for the back backdrop for consumption. 381 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:28,480 Speaker 1: Stand clear of the craziest things we saw in markets 382 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:31,080 Speaker 1: this week. And I know I asked both of you 383 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,480 Speaker 1: two come prepared with some of the craziest or weirdest 384 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,680 Speaker 1: things you saw in markets this week, and I feel 385 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 1: like we've hinted at a bunch of them already. But Crystal, 386 00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:42,959 Speaker 1: I feel like you have like a big list of 387 00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 1: things that you've been watching all week. I hope you 388 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:49,720 Speaker 1: I hope you proved me right. Yes, um, I mean 389 00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:53,119 Speaker 1: it would be so easy to reach for the Volcano bond. 390 00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:56,879 Speaker 1: That's the world's first sovereign bond that will build a 391 00:24:56,920 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 1: bitcoin city. El Salvador plans to issue one billion dollars 392 00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:05,119 Speaker 1: in tokenized USD denominated tenure bonds. But that's not my 393 00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:08,320 Speaker 1: weird thing of the week. By weird thing of the 394 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:12,040 Speaker 1: week is this thing called the Constitution DOW that goes 395 00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:15,440 Speaker 1: back to my crypto beat. This DOW, or a decentralized 396 00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:19,560 Speaker 1: autonomous organization think of it basically as a club born 397 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,440 Speaker 1: on the Internet. It's the A O L chat room 398 00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:26,240 Speaker 1: of the future, but it has an agenda. So the 399 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,720 Speaker 1: Constitution Now was a group of people who raised something 400 00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,399 Speaker 1: like forty seven million dollars to buy a really old, 401 00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:36,360 Speaker 1: really valuable physical copy of the Constitution spoiler alert. They 402 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:41,000 Speaker 1: failed pretty fantastically. The private individual that outbid them turned 403 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 1: out to be none other than hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin. 404 00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:47,320 Speaker 1: But what was unusual to me. Maybe no one saw 405 00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:50,639 Speaker 1: it this way, but to me, the Constitution Now effectively 406 00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:54,400 Speaker 1: did a spack. They pulled some money to buy something. 407 00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:58,040 Speaker 1: And in the Wall Street world, when a spack fails, 408 00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,920 Speaker 1: too fail on the promise of I'm going to buy 409 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 1: a thing, people are generally disappointed and want their money back. Um. 410 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:09,880 Speaker 1: But in crypto world, this Dow failed to do this 411 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,240 Speaker 1: thing they set out to do, and in the wake 412 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:15,400 Speaker 1: of this failure, it would seem they have greater support 413 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:18,560 Speaker 1: to do something else. And that's my unusual thing of 414 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 1: the week. I love this and the analysis of all 415 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:25,800 Speaker 1: of this and comparing it's this acts. This is really good. Candice. 416 00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,080 Speaker 1: I'm sorry, but this is like a really high bar. 417 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,080 Speaker 1: I feel like I was just going to say, Crystal, 418 00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,680 Speaker 1: that you had the bar extremely high, and I don't 419 00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:37,720 Speaker 1: think I can match that. I've been sort of brainstorming 420 00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:41,000 Speaker 1: here as we're as I was listening to your fascinating 421 00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:45,520 Speaker 1: discovery there about some of the events uh this week, 422 00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,719 Speaker 1: And of course I'm a boring strategist, so I just 423 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 1: I think about the headlines that I've seen that sort 424 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:53,840 Speaker 1: of make me scratch my head a little bit, and HM, 425 00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:57,840 Speaker 1: that's interesting. And UM, I think one of them, you know, 426 00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:02,280 Speaker 1: sort of perplexing market responses that I've seen this week 427 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:05,960 Speaker 1: is the renomination or the outcome of the renomination of 428 00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:09,800 Speaker 1: chair Powell. UM. I was quite surprised to see the 429 00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:14,440 Speaker 1: markets respond in such a hawkish fashion, given that it's 430 00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:19,399 Speaker 1: essentially suggesting status quo, um, you know, for for the 431 00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:24,360 Speaker 1: FED going forward, and you know, by bringing Brainard up 432 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:28,439 Speaker 1: to vice chair. Um, you know, I you know it, 433 00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 1: it seems to me that that's going to add a 434 00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:35,480 Speaker 1: more devish leaning biases at that vice chair position. So 435 00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,440 Speaker 1: I was quite surprised to see the market adjust the 436 00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:42,320 Speaker 1: way that it did following that announcement. UM, you know, 437 00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,880 Speaker 1: looking at the rate hike expectations, I think, um, yeah, 438 00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,199 Speaker 1: more than five rate hikes price now by the end 439 00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:51,960 Speaker 1: of so that seems a little bit overdone given that 440 00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:57,160 Speaker 1: status quo UM you know, situation at the Federal Reserve. 441 00:27:57,880 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 1: And I think one more thing I point out, I know, ye, 442 00:27:59,880 --> 00:28:02,720 Speaker 1: well last for one, but just something that's lingering in 443 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:06,040 Speaker 1: the in the background now is these um, you know, 444 00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:11,800 Speaker 1: tensions that have been emerging between oil consumers and producers 445 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:15,480 Speaker 1: UM you know, obviously major consuming nations such as the US, 446 00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:20,359 Speaker 1: but also in coordination with China, Japan, South Korea, India, 447 00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:24,680 Speaker 1: UM all talking about releasing strategic reserves to get those 448 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,639 Speaker 1: oil prices UH down a little bit. But at the 449 00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,480 Speaker 1: same time you've got Opec um you know, pushing back 450 00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 1: and even reportedly reconsidering um their upcoming supply increase. So 451 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:38,960 Speaker 1: that will be very interesting to to watch going forward. 452 00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,880 Speaker 1: And I think we'll just um you know again, you know, 453 00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,760 Speaker 1: inject a little bit more volatility into the crude markets 454 00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:48,760 Speaker 1: after what's been a pretty strong rally. And the interesting 455 00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 1: thing to me about those headlines was just looking at 456 00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:54,480 Speaker 1: the list of countries that the US is working with. 457 00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,040 Speaker 1: So we have all these tensions with China and at 458 00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:58,720 Speaker 1: the same time the US is working with China and 459 00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:02,200 Speaker 1: Japan and suss Carea and so on on on making 460 00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:06,239 Speaker 1: this happen. Yeah, no, it's a fully coordinated move, you know. 461 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:10,440 Speaker 1: And yeah, we'll have to see how everything um shakes out, 462 00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:12,200 Speaker 1: but I think there could be um, you know, some 463 00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:17,560 Speaker 1: volutility around those headlines here in the in the coming week. Well, 464 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:20,440 Speaker 1: my craziest thing also has to do with crypto, So 465 00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:24,080 Speaker 1: we're really crypto heavy on weirdness things again this week. 466 00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:26,200 Speaker 1: It's just it's so easy to find a lot of 467 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:30,160 Speaker 1: really interesting stuff there. But I was looking at the 468 00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:33,920 Speaker 1: Crypto dot Com deal to rename the Staples Center in 469 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,000 Speaker 1: l A so that it bears the Crypto dot Com name, 470 00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:41,080 Speaker 1: and it seems like that has actually already paid for 471 00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,920 Speaker 1: itself in some ways, because the token for crypto dot 472 00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:49,640 Speaker 1: com has surged something like fifty in the wake of 473 00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:54,520 Speaker 1: that announcement, which is just, you know, it's there's just 474 00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:57,680 Speaker 1: so many huge moves happening in the crypto space when 475 00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:00,520 Speaker 1: it comes to some of these tokens and and some 476 00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:04,479 Speaker 1: frankly that maybe we've never heard of before until they 477 00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:07,640 Speaker 1: start making headlines. But I think Katie Grayfield put it best. 478 00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:11,360 Speaker 1: She said, you know, this deal for the Staples Center 479 00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:13,960 Speaker 1: to be renamed. It's a twenty year deal, and she said, 480 00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:15,440 Speaker 1: I thought we were all supposed to be in the 481 00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:19,600 Speaker 1: metaverse in twenty years, so it's it's really interesting to 482 00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:22,600 Speaker 1: think about. But it's been really great to have you 483 00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:25,080 Speaker 1: both on the show, and I'd love to have you 484 00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:28,120 Speaker 1: back on in the future. Crystal, thank you so much 485 00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,200 Speaker 1: for joining us. I know crypto is is your beat now, 486 00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:33,959 Speaker 1: but you you do really well as a stock markets 487 00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:38,040 Speaker 1: reported to Thank you. Thank you, Candice, thanks so much 488 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:40,440 Speaker 1: for joining us. Yeah, thank you so much for having 489 00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:42,640 Speaker 1: me and for one upping me on the craziest Things 490 00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:45,760 Speaker 1: of the week, both of you. Yours were good. Yours 491 00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:49,960 Speaker 1: were really good too. Thanks for being on the show again. 492 00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:56,560 Speaker 1: What goes up? We'll be back next week. Until then, 493 00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,000 Speaker 1: you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal website and 494 00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:02,280 Speaker 1: app or wherever you get your podcasts. We'd love it 495 00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:04,240 Speaker 1: if you took the time to rate and review the 496 00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:07,080 Speaker 1: show on Apple Podcasts so more listeners can find us. 497 00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:10,040 Speaker 1: And you can find us on Twitter follow me at 498 00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:14,240 Speaker 1: Dana Hirich. Crystal Kim is at Crystal Kim with three ms. 499 00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:18,920 Speaker 1: You can also follow Bloomer Podcasts at at podcast, and 500 00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:22,040 Speaker 1: thank you to Charlie Pellett of Bloomer Radio. The head 501 00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:25,760 Speaker 1: of Bloomer podcast is Francesca Levi. What Goes Up is 502 00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:29,200 Speaker 1: produced by the amazing Tofur Foreheads. This is actually Tofur's 503 00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:31,880 Speaker 1: last week with us. Tofur thank you for all your 504 00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:34,760 Speaker 1: amazing work and patients in dealing with Mike Reagan all 505 00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 1: these years. Will really really miss you, and for everybody else, 506 00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:39,720 Speaker 1: thanks for listening. We'll see you next time.