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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we

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Speaker 2: go throwing in job. I'm saying it's a cat. See

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Speaker 2: most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to win. God,

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Speaker 2: that's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kabata and we are

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Speaker 2: come away. What is up? Everybody? Welcome to the Action

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Speaker 2: Network Podcast presented by FanDuel. I am your host Chris Raybond,

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Speaker 2: and this is her week nine NFL betting preview where

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Speaker 2: we talk about our favorite totals, teasers, underdogs, and of

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Speaker 2: course build our weekly Sunday six pack of against the

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Speaker 2: spread bets with the help of my co host, the

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stuckey Stuck. What's going on?

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Speaker 3: Hey, it's going on? Yeah, excited to talk this slate,

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Speaker 3: little lighter slate, more teams with a buy on Sunday.

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Speaker 3: But coming off back on track, coming off after my

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Speaker 3: first losing week out of winning weecond, I was glad

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Speaker 3: for the show. I think I went one to two

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Speaker 3: and the six pack, I'm like you, you swept the entire

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Speaker 3: card again and then I hit my teaser money line

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Speaker 3: dog total anyone that listened or followed on Twitter or

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Speaker 3: the Action never Cap made money. So but like I

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Speaker 3: always say, who cares, We're on to the next week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. There, And before we get into the Thursday night

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Speaker 2: football game, a quick heads up for folks who bet

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Speaker 2: more than just football. Action Network has a full lineup

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Speaker 2: of podcasts and they are all in full swing right now.

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Speaker 2: So if you're inter betting NBA, checkout Buckets with new

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Speaker 2: episodes every weekday. If you're in a betting hockey, our

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Speaker 2: NHL show Line Change with Nick Martin has been crushing

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Speaker 2: so far. And if you want to bet some world

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Speaker 2: cut waiter this month, our soccer guys on the Undergoal

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Speaker 2: podcast have you covered, So be sure to check out Buckets,

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Speaker 2: Line Change, and Wonder Goal wherever you like to listen.

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Speaker 2: All right, time to talk some Thursday night football, So

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Speaker 2: let's get it started with the Philadelphia Eagles and the

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Speaker 2: Houston Texans.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday night football.

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Speaker 2: So the Texans are fourteen point home underdogs. The total

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Speaker 2: is up to forty five and a half at VANDU,

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Speaker 2: the official sponsor of the Action Network podcast this is

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Speaker 2: a game where I really don't want any part of.

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Speaker 2: But what are your thoughts just on the matchup Philly

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Speaker 2: Houston how to play?

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Speaker 3: Don't Honestly, I don't really care, but we'll talk about

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Speaker 3: it since I know some people will bet it this game.

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Speaker 3: This is the worst Thursday night game imaginal. But there's

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Speaker 3: gonna be like World Series on, there's college football on,

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Speaker 3: and like you're gonna you want me to pull up

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Speaker 3: an app for this game? Sorry, NFL. This will be

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Speaker 3: the one Thursday night game I will not be watching.

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Speaker 3: I'll probably I mean, I have chatter of a producer

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Speaker 3: coming into town. We'll be out Thursday night, so I

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Speaker 3: won't even have a chance to watch it. But which

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Speaker 3: is great timing because I just this game is awful.

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Speaker 3: The number is a little high based on what I

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Speaker 3: make it. But I am petrified of Houston after what

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Speaker 3: I saw last week, because they were playing a backup

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Speaker 3: quarterback who threw the ball one time in the first

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Speaker 3: quarter and got sacked against a team that just handed

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Speaker 3: it off a million times to Derrick Henry, Like what

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Speaker 3: with no receivers? What did you think they were gonna do?

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Speaker 3: Any Ryan all over them? So now you're gonna have

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Speaker 3: to go up against the Eagles rushing attack with way

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Speaker 3: better receivers and way better quarterback. I had a way

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Speaker 3: better offensive line. So even if the Eagles clean hear

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Speaker 3: with a vanilla game plan short week on the road,

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Speaker 3: they could still blow this open. I don't know. I

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Speaker 3: can't lay fourteen on the road in the an NFL

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Speaker 3: game on a short week. There's also a big back

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Speaker 3: door rists when you're laying a number like that, as

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Speaker 3: we saw with you know, Green Bad at ten and

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Speaker 3: a half, feels like the game's out of hand. Then

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Speaker 3: all of a sudden, it never really is in an

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Speaker 3: NFL game, because the Eagles could easily come out in

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Speaker 3: the first half, go up, kind of just sit on it,

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Speaker 3: and all of a sudden, you know, you see the

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Speaker 3: Texans with the ball down seventeen late with a chance

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Speaker 3: to lose by ten. So yeah, I think fourteen is

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Speaker 3: gonna be the only way that you could get anyone

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Speaker 3: to bet the Texans. I will not, but I will

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Speaker 3: also not bet the Eagles. For what it's worth, the

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Speaker 3: Eagles there's seven to zero against the spread in the

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Speaker 3: first half. First team since the twenty thirteen Panthers to

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Speaker 3: start out seven to zero against the spread in the

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Speaker 3: first half of the season. But ugly, ugly, ugly, this

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Speaker 3: game deserves to be on a that that's kind of

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Speaker 3: like a college football like UMass game that's on if

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Speaker 3: fubo you of stadium. I'm glad this is on the app.

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Speaker 3: It's where it belongs. But no, thanks for me.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe, you know, if you want to get some action,

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Speaker 2: maybe you look at a prop like a Miles Sanders

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Speaker 2: over something. Last two weeks, Houston sixty one carries for

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Speaker 2: four hundred and forty seven yards and five touchdowns to

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Speaker 2: opposing running backs, mostly Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry. But

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Speaker 2: you know, I watched every snap of every game, but

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Speaker 2: you know, like this last Texans game against the Titans especially,

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Speaker 2: I just could not get over how like every play

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Speaker 2: they knew exactly what was coming and they couldn't even when

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Speaker 2: Dontrell Hilliard got in the game, he ran. Dontrell Hilliard

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Speaker 2: carried eight times for eighty three yards. Dontrell Hilliard had

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Speaker 2: ninety five scrimmage yards behind a running back who touched

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Speaker 2: the ball thirty three times. That's absurd. This team cannot

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Speaker 2: stop the run, so can't wait the points with Houston.

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Speaker 3: I mean, my brain wants me to take Houston. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: so if you want to follow my brain, like how

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Speaker 3: I bet the NFL no team is as bad as

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Speaker 3: they look. The week prior by low Sell High of

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Speaker 3: an undefeated team playing a team with one win, the

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Speaker 3: team's at home on national TV. This will basically be

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Speaker 3: their season. Their defense got embarrassed last week. It's a

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Speaker 3: short week. It's very difficult to cover fourteen in the NFL,

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Speaker 3: So bilos Sell High, this gets to like fourteen and

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Speaker 3: a half. My brain would say that Texans, but I

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Speaker 3: just don't want to torture myself with this game.

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Speaker 2: I think something weird is going on with Brandon Cooks too,

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Speaker 2: because he had that cricktick tweet a couple of days ago,

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Speaker 2: well I think it was yesterday when he did not

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Speaker 2: get traded and he kind of said essentially, you know,

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Speaker 2: don't mess with my career. And he hasn't practiced since

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Speaker 2: this thing. It's his risk, but he practiced in full Monday,

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Speaker 2: So more likely that something you know, kind of like

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Speaker 2: an Elijah More situation going on. There's a possibility he

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Speaker 2: does not play. I mean he didn't practice Wednesday. I

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Speaker 2: agree yeah, so, and listen, you're already got Sway Bradberry

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Speaker 2: to deal with. So if you don't have Brandon Cooks

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Speaker 2: are gonna be hard up by gun. In my head,

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Speaker 2: I would just go Philly and hope they can get

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Speaker 2: it done. Thursday Night favorites by seven or more are

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Speaker 2: thirty five and twenty one, sixty three percent against the

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Speaker 2: spread over the better part of the last two decades

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Speaker 2: for what it's worth, just because it is hard for

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Speaker 2: you know, an inferior team on a short week to

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Speaker 2: kind of scheme up away to stay competitive. So uh,

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Speaker 2: that's about all I think about that. But yeah, I

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Speaker 2: think this is this scream stay Away, watch something else. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: all right, let's jump in too the week number nine

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Speaker 2: Sunday six.

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Speaker 1: Pack Thursday per Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: All right, so you got some work to do man

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Speaker 2: back to back sweep every week for our that would

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Speaker 2: be I would love the podcast.

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Speaker 3: Hopefully I can join the sweet party soon as well.

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Speaker 2: Where are you going with your first pick? All right?

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Speaker 3: For my first pick of the week nine Sunday six

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Speaker 3: Pack presented by Fandel, I am going with the Indianapolis

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Speaker 3: Colts plus five and a half at the New England Patriots. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: this is ugly, but I just think that this number

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Speaker 3: number one, my raw number, is much lower than the summer,

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Speaker 3: like three eight, three nine, And it's very difficult today's

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Speaker 3: scoring environment, which this total reflects. This total is sitting

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Speaker 3: around thirty eight and a half thirty nine to cover

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Speaker 3: games with margin. This year, dogs of over a field

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Speaker 3: goal are forty seven and twenty six against the spread

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Speaker 3: sixty four and a half percent. Frank Reich, for what

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Speaker 3: it's worth, as an underdog of over three points on

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Speaker 3: the road is twelve three and one against the spread.

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Speaker 3: But there's a couple of things that I like here

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Speaker 3: about this matchup. The Colts defense, which is much healthier now.

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Speaker 3: In the front seven. Leonard should be off the snap

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Speaker 3: restriction or as much the snapcout restriction that he was

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Speaker 3: on last week, or it's going to be loose, and

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Speaker 3: they say, I don't know if we'll be up to

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Speaker 3: full speed when he pay is expected to be back,

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Speaker 3: they think, And you know, Buckner was dealing with an injury,

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Speaker 3: so that front seven is now as healthy as it's

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Speaker 3: been in a while, and they've been good against the

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Speaker 3: run all year. You know six and rushed success rate

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Speaker 3: six and rush dvoa. That's the bread and butter of

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Speaker 3: the Patriots. The weakness of the Indianapolis defense so far

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Speaker 3: this year has been their secondary. But you're not going

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Speaker 3: to really get beat and burnt by this New England

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Speaker 3: passing attack. Mac Jones has not been good. I mean

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Speaker 3: he is twenty fifth in adjusted EPA per play among

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Speaker 3: all qualified quarterbacks. You look at that New England game

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Speaker 3: last week, I mean good, They average under four yards

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Speaker 3: per play. Mac Jones made some questionable throws and he

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Speaker 3: just doesn't look comfortable right now. And he hasn't played

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Speaker 3: well all year. And granted he doesn't have the best

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Speaker 3: group of receivers to work with, which I think works

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Speaker 3: in Indianapolis's favor here. And then on the other side

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Speaker 3: of the ball, Jonathan Taylor is dealing with an ankles.

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Speaker 3: It's worth monitoring here. I think he's gonna end up playing,

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Speaker 3: but he didn't practice today. He got it taped up

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Speaker 3: during the game and then went back in. He's Yeah,

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Speaker 3: he still doesn't look one hundred percent, but the Patriots

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Speaker 3: run defense has been really poor here, so I think

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Speaker 3: if he does play, you know, he can have a

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Speaker 3: decent day, and this is where Ellinger's mobility can come

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Speaker 3: into play against the New England team that does get

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Speaker 3: pressure at a pretty high rate, but it's in New

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Speaker 3: England defense. It also is just jackal and Hyde because

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Speaker 3: they're young. One week they look good, the next week

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Speaker 3: they don't. And every time you know they look good,

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Speaker 3: the next week they have a really poor performance. And

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Speaker 3: I liked what I saw from Ellinger last week. He

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Speaker 3: looked comfortable, poised. In this second half alone, he was

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Speaker 3: eleven of thirteen for one hundred and fifty yards, including

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Speaker 3: a twenty yard dime to Michael Pittman, who potentially could

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Speaker 3: have got out of bounds if he caught it. I

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Speaker 3: mean he literally dropped wide open, was put right in

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Speaker 3: his hands to try he could have got out of

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Speaker 3: bounds to set up a potential Colts game winning field

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Speaker 3: goal attempt. So he looked real, He looked comfortable. I

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Speaker 3: thought he had a bad fumble in the red zone early,

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Speaker 3: but he looked comfortable overall and especially in the second half,

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Speaker 3: so I think he can build on that. The Colts

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Speaker 3: also fired their offensive coordinator. A lot of talk about

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Speaker 3: his involvement in the scripted portion of the play of games.

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Speaker 3: The Colts since right got there prior to this year,

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Speaker 3: were the second best team in the NFL on offense

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Speaker 3: in the first fifteenth plays of a game. This year,

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Speaker 3: they haven't scored in an opening drive even the worst.

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Speaker 3: So maybe we'll see some a little nuanced and switch

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Speaker 3: up the script here. I also like Allinger went to

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Speaker 3: Stefan Gilmour was there was word early this week and said,

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Speaker 3: tell me everything you know about Belichick seems to be

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Speaker 3: approaching this right, But I just think ultimately it's too

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Speaker 3: high to decent matchup for the Colts defense, and it's

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Speaker 3: it's tough to cover this number with a total of

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Speaker 3: thirty nine against a very limited Patriots offense.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean wack Wilson last week five point loss

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Speaker 2: because they got that touchdown late and the Patriots dominated. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think it's just the Jets defense kept

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Speaker 2: him innute. But said with.

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Speaker 3: Wilson throwing interceptions all over the field.

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Speaker 2: Shouts shouted a guy who tweeted us saying we were

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Speaker 2: wrong about Zach Wilson and he has that dog in him.

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Speaker 2: Where where is it? I don't see it.

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Speaker 3: He'll have one touchdown, brow'll complete like one long pass

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Speaker 3: and then I'll get I'll get mentioned. I'm like, yeah,

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Speaker 3: he still has a NFL quarterback. He's going to complete

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Speaker 3: some passes. But by the way, in that Patriots game

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Speaker 3: against the Jets, very very questionable roughing the passer call

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Speaker 3: that changed the entire game on a Mac Jones' horrendous

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Speaker 3: throw he got he got hit late, a little late,

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Speaker 3: had nothing to do with the throw, but he got

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Speaker 3: away with that one. And I don't understand. Now we're

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Speaker 3: with the NFL, we're going to like, okay, wait, all right, yeah, yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's not a catch like in that word. It's taken

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Speaker 3: a little I like it. No one's tend to challenge

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Speaker 3: it anymore. Do the same thing with these game changing

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Speaker 3: calls that swing win probability a million percent. Okay, yeah,

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Speaker 3: he didn't hit him in the head clean had It

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Speaker 3: wasn't roughing the passer. Okay, correction I after further discussion,

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Speaker 3: it is not roughing the passer that easy anyway.

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Speaker 2: Speaking of which, since we're on a subject, let me

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Speaker 2: get your thoughts, what are your thoughts on referee impact.

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Speaker 2: We have the referee filter in Action Labs, and I

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Speaker 2: happen to see that Kway Martin, who's refereeing this Patriots

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Speaker 2: Coats game. Underdogs have a forty three and twenty three

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Speaker 2: against the spread record when he is the referee, and

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Speaker 2: it actually grades as an a a graded trend, which

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Speaker 2: means like the sample size checks out and all that stuff. So, uh,

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Speaker 2: just curious is to you know, do you think there's

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Speaker 2: certain refs to have kind of like impact or is

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Speaker 2: it just all randomness.

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Speaker 3: I think it's mostly noise. There's you know, there's certain

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Speaker 3: refs that like to call specific types of penalties more

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Speaker 3: often than others, and then depending on the style of

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Speaker 3: a team, that could impact it. But there are certain

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Speaker 3: officials I do believe this in every sport. You'll see

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Speaker 3: this in MLB basketball. I think Hockyly is one of them.

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Speaker 3: You have to check his road in underdog records, but

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Speaker 3: that they like to play like the villain almost so

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Speaker 3: that there's some like villain like villain qualities of some

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Speaker 3: refs that just like, oh, this crowd's gonna get mad

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Speaker 3: at me, and some MPs like will favor the home crowd,

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Speaker 3: like you know, that's what home field advantage is about.

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Speaker 3: But some officials like to go against that and love

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Speaker 3: to be the guy, like the kind of the the

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Speaker 3: he you also, I don't know. I think that you

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Speaker 3: can find some things you have to really dig. But

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Speaker 3: like most trends, I like to have some sort of

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Speaker 3: explanation as to why. But I do think it's mostly noise.

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Speaker 2: To your point, Sean Hockeyley Rode dogs against the spread

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Speaker 2: are twenty five and fourteen sixty four percent when he's

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Speaker 2: the ref. So you know, that kind of lends itself

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Speaker 2: to talking.

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Speaker 3: About Thanksgiving game and he threw seventeen thousand pass interference

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Speaker 3: flags on the Cowboys.

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Speaker 2: Again, Oh yeah, it was like the same dude, was it? Like,

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Speaker 2: was it Anthony Brown? I think it was that was

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Speaker 2: the hockey game he lags or something like that.

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Speaker 3: He had the national stage. I think they got flagged

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Speaker 3: for one hundred and eighty five yards of penalties the

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Speaker 3: Cowboys in that game. So yeah, there's there's some hitting

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Speaker 3: gems for there. Ultimately, you agree with that.

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Speaker 2: The Colts Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, like I'm I'm I

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Speaker 2: mean that way too, like I So another thing I

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Speaker 2: like about the Colts. You know, they play a lot

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Speaker 2: his own you know, we talk about that and going

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Speaker 2: up against Trevor Lawrence but mac Jones in the Patriots,

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Speaker 2: they've been or at least mac Jones has been top

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Speaker 2: five against man, but twentieth against zone and yards for

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Speaker 2: targeted pass. So you know, this kind of defense tends

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Speaker 2: to give them problems. That's how you get that cover

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Speaker 2: with that plus five and a half. So and I

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Speaker 2: think it might go to six if tailor if we

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Speaker 2: keep like if Taylor misses another day to practice.

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Speaker 3: Yep. So that's why I wanted to bring I wanted

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Speaker 3: to ask you again because I just wanted to say

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Speaker 3: I haven't put this in the app yet because it's

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Speaker 3: at five and a half and five is a pretty

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Speaker 3: dead number and it's way more advantageous to wait. So

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Speaker 3: I'm going to wait to see if this pops up.

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Speaker 3: But anyway, guys, what do you got for.

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Speaker 2: My first pick? In the second overall of the week

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Speaker 2: nine Sunday six pack presented by FanDuel, I am going

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Speaker 2: with the Washington Commanders plus three and a half at

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Speaker 2: home with Jerome Boger addicted against the Minnesota Vikings. I

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Speaker 2: am man list. I told you the minute they get

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Speaker 2: cars wins out of here. First of all, they're winning,

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Speaker 2: so there's that. But I look at this matchup, and like,

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Speaker 2: obviously Washington very very average team, but I think the

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Speaker 2: perception here is kind of skewed in that I think

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Speaker 2: people look at Washington as a bad team and Minnesota

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Speaker 2: as a very good team, and so Minnesota is getting

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Speaker 2: more than the field goal on the road here, and

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Speaker 2: I don't I don't think that should be the case

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Speaker 2: because you look at Minnesota this year. Yeah, they're six

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Speaker 2: and one straight up, but they've actually been outgained on

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Speaker 2: average three eighty three to three forty six. So this

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Speaker 2: is this team is not quite as good as it

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Speaker 2: looks on paper. Meanwhile, Washington, you know, two typ Taylor

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Speaker 2: Heineke starts out being Green Bay three sixty four to

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Speaker 2: two thirty two out getting Indianapolis three sixty two to

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Speaker 2: three twenty four. So they're doing just enough with him

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Speaker 2: behind center. But I like their defense in this spot,

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Speaker 2: Washington's defense since they benched William Jackson, who now is

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Speaker 2: traded to Pittsburgh. But they benched it in week five

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Speaker 2: and we's one to four. They were twentieth in EPA

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Speaker 2: per dropback olout. Since Benchingham, they're eighth in EPA per

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Speaker 2: drop back out. And even though they basically bench Jackson

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Speaker 2: because he couldn't pick up their zone and match scheme.

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00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:19,359
Speaker 2: Washington still plays more man coverage than most teams in

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Speaker 2: the league. They played the seventh highest rate of man coverage. Well,

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Speaker 2: why is that important? Because Minnesota they have been struggling

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Speaker 2: against man coverage this year, just six point three yards

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Speaker 2: per targeted past twenty seventh in the league. This Washington

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Speaker 2: defensive front is also the best Minnesota has faced this season.

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Speaker 2: Their twenty six percent pressure rate is fourth in the league.

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Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins fourteenth from a clean pocket with a one

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Speaker 2: zero three passer rating, but under pressure that drops to

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Speaker 2: sixty two, which is twenty sixth. I don't think he'll

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Speaker 2: have another one of those big Dalvin Cook games like

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Speaker 2: he had last week because Washington is number two in

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Speaker 2: run DVOA, so they could get the Vikings in some

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Speaker 2: must pass situations where I think they could get some

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Speaker 2: pressure and affect Cousins. And then on the other side

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Speaker 2: of the ball. Yes, Zadarius Smith is balling, but Minnesota's

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Speaker 2: still bowl averaging pressure. Heinikee this year one thirty two

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Speaker 2: rating from a clean pocket. Minnesota does not blitz, so

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Speaker 2: I don't think much is gonna change on that front.

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Speaker 2: But if they do. But Heineke's also been tearing it

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Speaker 2: up against the Blitz with a one eleven rating and

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Speaker 2: Minnesota dead last and Dvoa against opposing number one wide receivers,

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Speaker 2: which benefits the Commanders because Heinike, unlike Wentz, Heinicky funnels

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Speaker 2: the ball to Terry McLaurin a lot more like he

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Speaker 2: feeds him. Wentz was giving him just six point two

362
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Speaker 2: targets per game. He's averaging just sixty one receiving yards

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Speaker 2: under four catches with Wentz. With Heinike five and a

364
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Speaker 2: half catches per game, ninety three yards and half a touchdown,

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Speaker 2: So his numbers go way up and this is the

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Speaker 2: perfect defense for that. Yeah, have Heinike since last November?

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Speaker 2: His last ten games, last ten starts eight and two

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Speaker 2: against the spread. One of those losses was by a

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Speaker 2: half point, so he could easily be nine to one

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Speaker 2: against the spread in his last ten and Kirk Cousins

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Speaker 2: off a straight up win with the Vikings just thirteen

372
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Speaker 2: twenty two to one against the spread thirty seven percent.

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Speaker 2: So for the third straight week, give me the Commanders.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't, I don't. I don't hate this. The

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Speaker 3: Vikings continue to win coin flip games. They've won about

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Speaker 3: five or six this year against yeah, and some backup quarterbacks,

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Speaker 3: and yeah, their defense is not great to me, and

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Speaker 3: you know this field can kind of slow them down

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Speaker 3: a little bit, which I think works in Washington's favor.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I think getting over a field goal here,

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Speaker 3: I agree.

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Speaker 2: Where are you going with pick number two?

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Speaker 3: All right? For my second pick and the third overall

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Speaker 3: of the week nine Sunday six back, I'm going with

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Speaker 3: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus three. I think it's minus

386
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Speaker 3: three at fandel see if you can get two and

387
00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:14,879
Speaker 3: a half out there, if you can shop around or

388
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:18,920
Speaker 3: wait on FanDuel. It's been popping back and forth all week.

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Speaker 3: But I do still like it at three. Both of

390
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:26,080
Speaker 3: these teams are semi broken. The Rams are much more broken.

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Speaker 3: So I'm getting, you know, I'll break it down the

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Speaker 3: simplest terms. I'm getting the Bucks, who have the better offense,

393
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Speaker 3: the better defense, and the better special teams at home

394
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Speaker 3: off extended rest against a Rams team coming across the country.

395
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Speaker 3: I know McVeigh has been good going from West East

396
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,919
Speaker 3: coast in a small sample size against the spread but

397
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 3: this is just a different team, you know. When I

398
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Speaker 3: look here just to give you and Bucks are getting healthier.

399
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Speaker 3: I think they're going to get some key defenders back.

400
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:56,880
Speaker 3: Their wide receivers have just been banged up all year.

401
00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 3: They're finally getting back up to speed. Brady, he has

402
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,320
Speaker 3: not looked the same under pressure. I mean, his his

403
00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 3: average depth of target drops to like three point eight yards.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, when he's under pressure, automatic running back.

405
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Speaker 3: But the Rams get pressure twelve percent of the time,

406
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Speaker 3: second fewest rate in the NFL. They're not getting any

407
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Speaker 3: pressure when Brady has a clean pocket. He leads the

408
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Speaker 3: NFL fifteen big time throws. He's nine touchdowns, one interception.

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Speaker 3: Numbers look fine. So yeah, I mean to just an

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Speaker 3: EPA per play Brady thirteenth in the league, Stafford twenty sixth.

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Speaker 3: How about how about adjusted e paper play for all

412
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Speaker 3: the offense overall? Bucks twentieth Rams thirty, second worst offense

413
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Speaker 3: in the league from an EPA per play perspective EPA

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Speaker 3: per play on defense, Bucks eighth, Rams sixteenth. So then

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Speaker 3: if you break it down a little further, neither team

416
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Speaker 3: will be able to run the ball here with much success.

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Speaker 3: Sow about let's look at when these two teams drop

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Speaker 3: back e paper drop back, bucks defense sixth also sixth

419
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Speaker 3: and success rate rams twenty seventh and twenty first and

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Speaker 3: success rate. I mean, just everything points to Tapa Air,

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Speaker 3: especially if you get under a field goaler below at

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Speaker 3: home in a good spot, had two desperate teams. You

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Speaker 3: also have your revenge factor from last year. Don't care

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Speaker 3: about that, but from the playoffs. But there's just something.

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Speaker 3: And then I didn't even mention that Cooper Cup might

426
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 3: not be one hundred percent. Who knows an ankle. They

427
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:23,480
Speaker 3: say he's going to be good, but you never know

428
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:25,879
Speaker 3: when that flares up or what kind of swelling is

429
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:27,640
Speaker 3: going to be dealing with. Look at Keenan Allen, who

430
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 3: apparently is going to play again and his injury is

431
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:34,159
Speaker 3: getting worse. But I mean, there's here are the quarterbacks

432
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 3: with negative EPA per play this year besides Stafford, who,

433
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,919
Speaker 3: by the way, has a five point nine yard average

434
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:44,479
Speaker 3: depth of target that's the lowest in the NFL. In

435
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,680
Speaker 3: twenty nineteen, he was the highest the NFL ten point

436
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,679
Speaker 3: eight last year. Is at eight point three. He's down

437
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 3: a five point nine. Now, Dan Jefferson getting back will

438
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 3: hope that a little bit.

439
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 2: But he's one of rinsprints out there last week.

440
00:23:56,280 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, eventually, I'm saying is but there offenses,

441
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 3: but the offensive line is bad and everything is bad.

442
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 3: Here are the quarterbacks of negativev PA per play besides Stafford,

443
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:13,080
Speaker 3: Winston benched, Ryan benched, Bortles, Trubisky benched, Russell Wilson, I mean,

444
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 3: Zach Wilson should be benched, Carson Wentz, Wentz benched, Flacco benched,

445
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:24,240
Speaker 3: Mayfield benched, Davis Mills should be sitting on a bench somewhere,

446
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,159
Speaker 3: and Kenny Pickett. That's it. Those are your quarterbacks with

447
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 3: negativev pay per play and Stafford. So I think this

448
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 3: is the spot for the Bucks. They're getting healthier center rest,

449
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 3: better offense, better defense, better special teams, and I think

450
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:40,120
Speaker 3: when both these quarterbacks drop back, the Bucks are more

451
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 3: likely to have success on defense than the Rams. Will

452
00:24:44,760 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 3: Brady with a clean pocket here, I think we'll have

453
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:49,640
Speaker 3: success at home. Could be Tampa.

454
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 2: It's really surprising to me that after the Rams made

455
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 2: you know, some high risk ir reward but still very

456
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 2: prudent moves to kind of address you know, they had

457
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 2: this roster that was very studs and scrubs stars and scrubs,

458
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 2: you could say, and it's just surprising to me now

459
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:14,399
Speaker 2: that they did not foresee any of this, Like, you

460
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 2: don't re sign von Miller, and now you have absolutely

461
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 2: zero edge drush and even the fact that you have

462
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 2: the best defensive player in the game, it's still essentially

463
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 2: getting zero pressure. But it's just very surprising to me

464
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 2: that a team that kind of executed the plan and

465
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:35,440
Speaker 2: crafted a roster on the fly to go win a

466
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:37,880
Speaker 2: Super Bowl. Granted, of course they had some luck along

467
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 2: the way, but that now they just seem so clueless.

468
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,879
Speaker 2: Everything seems to be off with the Rams. Everything seems

469
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 2: to be off with the Bucks too. I would much

470
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 2: prefer the two and a half obviously to the three,

471
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 2: because it's Bucks team. I don't know if they're beating

472
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:56,439
Speaker 2: anybody by more than three points these days either. I

473
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 2: can't really get a handle on it. Every time I

474
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 2: think the Bucks are gonna they do something, they don't.

475
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 2: But I agree this Rams team is just completely like,

476
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:07,560
Speaker 2: this is a bad Rams team, a legitimate bad football team.

477
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 2: They don't get pressure, they're not an efficient on offense,

478
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 2: they are over reliant on one player, they cannot run

479
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 2: the ball, they can rock You're right. Yeah, their best player,

480
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 2: their best cover man, is not really impacting games. It's

481
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 2: just it's a mess out there. Yeah. All right. For

482
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:28,399
Speaker 2: my second pick and the fourth overall of the Week

483
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 2: nine Sunday six Pack, presented by Fan Duel, I'm going

484
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:35,160
Speaker 2: with the Carolina Panthers plus seven and a half at

485
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 2: the Cincinnati Bengals. And this is another one of these

486
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 2: spots where you have an underdog, you have a low

487
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 2: total game, and I think this Panthers team, ever since

488
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,639
Speaker 2: you got rid of Matt Rule, I just like the

489
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 2: way this team is playing, and I think they're gonna

490
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 2: give you know, teams problems, especially if they kind of

491
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 2: overlook them coming in. So look at I think this

492
00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 2: is going to happen with the Panthers. Look at what

493
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 2: happened to Cleveland last week. On defense. They came into

494
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:08,920
Speaker 2: the game on Monday night they were ranked bottom five

495
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 2: in past defense DVOA. Everyone was like, what's wrong with

496
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 2: this defense? And then they hold the Bengals to one

497
00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 2: hundred and ninety three net yards and forty dropbacks four

498
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:21,960
Speaker 2: point eight net yards per attempt. Now they ranked sixteenth

499
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:25,480
Speaker 2: in past defense dvo so they jumped twelve spots. I

500
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:27,680
Speaker 2: think the Panthers are going to do something similar because

501
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:32,879
Speaker 2: I think they're better than their metrics on paper, say,

502
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:35,880
Speaker 2: and part of that is, you know, just like the Browns,

503
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 2: Panthers haven't been completely healthy, but you do have j C.

504
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,400
Speaker 2: Horn back. He's missed about thirty percent of the snaps

505
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:44,640
Speaker 2: this season, but on two hundred and twelve coverage snaps

506
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 2: per Pro Football Focus, nineteen targets, which is great. People

507
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 2: are barely thrown at him eight catches forty six yards,

508
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 2: so forty six yards are nineteen targets forty six yards

509
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 2: and two hundred and twelve snaps, no touchdowns, one pick.

510
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 2: Without Chase, I just think this Bengals offense is going

511
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 2: to struggle because remember it struggled with Chase at times.

512
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 2: Like for all the star power and firepower they had,

513
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 2: this Bengals offense was not looking great and they were

514
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 2: in a lot of one score games early in the year.

515
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 2: But you look at the numbers. Burrow drawing to Chase

516
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 2: ten point three yards per attempt, sixteen point one yards

517
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 2: per completion, and a nine point seven percent touchdown rate

518
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,919
Speaker 2: per target to everyone else seven point six yards per attempt,

519
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:29,360
Speaker 2: So he drops over two and a half yards per attempt,

520
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:32,159
Speaker 2: ten point six yards per completion, which means he drops

521
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:35,160
Speaker 2: five and a half yards there, and the touchdown rate

522
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 2: is more than cut in half at four and a

523
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 2: half percent. So a completely different offense when Chase is

524
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 2: out of the lineup, and it affects the other receivers too.

525
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 2: It affects the whole offense because it just makes them

526
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 2: easier to defend. T Higgins nine point five yards per

527
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 2: target with chasing the lineup, eight point five yards per

528
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 2: target with Chase not in the lineup. Tyer Boyd nine

529
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 2: point two yards per target with chasing the lineup, point

530
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 2: seven with Chase not in the line Carolina seventh and

531
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 2: run defense DVLAS. I don't think the Bengals will be

532
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 2: able to just run the ball and kind of get

533
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 2: out of here. I think they're going to have to

534
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 2: put it up and I think this is the Cincinnati

535
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 2: aligne still not good. I think Brian Burns can get

536
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 2: to him for a sack or two, and then on

537
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 2: the other side of the ball. This Panthers offense, I

538
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 2: still think it can do enough. I mean, we saw,

539
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 2: you know, obviously, if you had the Panthers PJ Walker

540
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:29,120
Speaker 2: bails you out with the longest areer touchdown of all

541
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 2: time and then the most it's the crazy sweat after that.

542
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 2: I just think that this Bengals defense on a short

543
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:38,640
Speaker 2: week is in a bad spot. You have a defense

544
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 2: that in the first three weeks of the season, when

545
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 2: DJ Reider their interior alignment was healthy, they were allowing

546
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 2: the fifth lowest rushing success rate just under thirty four percent.

547
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 2: Since he went down, they're allowing the fifth highest rush

548
00:29:55,600 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 2: success rate at forty six point four percent. And Caroline

549
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 2: has rushed for one hundred and sixty nine or more

550
00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 2: yards in both games since they traded Christian McCaffrey, so

551
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 2: they really haven't missed a beat with that rushing attack.

552
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 2: Deontay Foreman, I mean, if I had a die a

553
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 2: dollar for every time the commentator called Deontay Foreman Derek

554
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 2: Henry Are compared him to Dereck Henry and I'd be

555
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 2: rich right now. But nevertheless, he's playing well. And then

556
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 2: when they throw the ball Chaudo obey Owoozia towards Aco

557
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 2: in that Monday night game, he was allowing a forty

558
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 2: two percent catch rate and five point one yards per

559
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 2: target on forty three targets, so a large amount of

560
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 2: targets were coming his way and he was shutting him down.

561
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 2: And without him here, it's going to be tougher to

562
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 2: guard Dj Moore, who ever since PJ. Walker has become

563
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 2: the starter now more is all of a sudden, averaging

564
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 2: seventy six yards per game, five point three catches. He

565
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 2: scored in two of the three, so he's finally we

566
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 2: come to life. Carolina is not given up sacks with PJ.

567
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 2: He's getting the ball out four sacks and his three

568
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:05,479
Speaker 2: starts compared to seventeen sacks in the five games that

569
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 2: the Mayfield started. And Cincinnati is still below averaging pressure.

570
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 2: So you know, there were just receivers running open last

571
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 2: week for Cleveland. It's just going to be really tough

572
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 2: to fix all of this on a short week. And

573
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:22,479
Speaker 2: there's just not a there's still not a ton of

574
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 2: tape on this Carolina offense with with Walker. So I

575
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 2: just think this is a tough spot. And historically a

576
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:31,960
Speaker 2: lot of the trends back it up road underdogs in

577
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 2: Week nine or ten facing a team that's covering sixty

578
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 2: percent or more at the time, like the Bengals are.

579
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,040
Speaker 2: The road dog is seventy seven to forty five and

580
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 2: two against the spread sixty three percent since two thousand

581
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 2: and five. Single digit road underdogs against a home favorite

582
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,960
Speaker 2: on short rest one thirty three at ninety five and

583
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 2: seven against the spread fifty eight percent since SO five

584
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 2: Week nine underdogs by seven or more or forty two

585
00:31:57,520 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 2: to twenty six and one sixty two percent against this

586
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 2: spreads and SO five Burrow just one and four against

587
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,520
Speaker 2: the spread in his career when favored by seven or

588
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 2: more and PJ Walker all time five starts four and

589
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 2: one against the spread with three outright wins, and he's

590
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 2: covering by an average of sixteen and a half points

591
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 2: per game. So give me the Panthers at over a

592
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 2: touchdown in a low total game.

593
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 3: All right, Yeah, I'll be mentioned in this game later

594
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 3: in the show. So I'm just gonna move on to

595
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 3: my third pick in the fifth overall of the Week

596
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 3: nine Sunday six pack. Let's get uncomfortable. Let's go with

597
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 3: the Arizona Cardinals minus two at home against the Seattle Seahawks. This,

598
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,640
Speaker 3: I mean, look, I don't like to play. This is

599
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 3: by the last Kingsbury Week nine. I don't like the

600
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 3: bat Cliff Kingsbury. I did it last week and he

601
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 3: had some time management issues. They also came out and

602
00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 3: were down early again, like there every week. This is

603
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 3: why the third pick, because I'm gonna bet a pre game.

604
00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 3: I don't want to explain why in a second, but

605
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:05,239
Speaker 3: I'm also gonna bet it live when they go down

606
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 3: seven to nothing, as they always do each and every week.

607
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 3: But let's break this one down. I mean, when these

608
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:15,000
Speaker 3: two teams met three weeks ago and the Cardinals were

609
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 3: laying two and a half at Seattle, neither team did anything.

610
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 3: They both averaged four and a half yards per play.

611
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 3: The only difference between the two teams. I mean, the

612
00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 3: Cardinals were one to five on fourth downs. It was

613
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 3: an even game. The Cardinals passing game is much less

614
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 3: efficient than Seattle's, and Seattle's running game was way less

615
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 3: efficient than Arizona's. Well, there was no DeAndre Hopkins there.

616
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 3: We obviously know how much better Arizona's. He's been probably

617
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 3: the best receiver in the NFL since coming back. So

618
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 3: we got an upgrade from that game. You upgrade the

619
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 3: Seahawks a little bit, and then since then, they you know,

620
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 3: they beat up a beat up Chargers team and then

621
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 3: a great spot against the Giants last week that I

622
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 3: talked about last week they get upgraded the Cardinals, that

623
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:58,880
Speaker 3: they beat the Saints, and then they exceeded expect my expectations.

624
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 3: Last week in Minnesota they plus four and they it

625
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 3: was a dead even game, graded out as a dead

626
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 3: even push. And like I said, they got Hopkins back.

627
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:08,600
Speaker 3: There are minus two and a half in Seattle, and

628
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:11,400
Speaker 3: I know we're we were already starting to upgrade Seattle.

629
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 3: Now I can get Arizona minus two at home. And

630
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:17,319
Speaker 3: by the way, Arizona hasn't good at home, has covered

631
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 3: their last two at home. Look Seattle, what Gino Smith

632
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:24,360
Speaker 3: is doing is incredible, But if you really dig deeper,

633
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 3: a lot of his success is coming on plays with

634
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 3: an option to run or throw a play action passes.

635
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 3: He is absolutely shredding and he's done a lot of

636
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 3: his damage against some of the worst defenses in the NFL.

637
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,200
Speaker 3: Because if you look at teams that have defended the run, well,

638
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 3: Gino Smith's results haven't been there because you don't have

639
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:47,719
Speaker 3: to start bringing everybody up and defending the run. So

640
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 3: if you look at Geno Smith's and Arizona's run defense

641
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 3: since Week one has been one of the better units

642
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 3: in the NFL. What did Geno Smith do against Arizona

643
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 3: in the first game? He threw for runner two hundred yards.

644
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 3: So look, Gino Smith, like a rich Gannon has done this.

645
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:04,799
Speaker 3: We've seen rich Gannon, a perennial backup come late in

646
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 3: his career. Or is he more like a Nick Foles?

647
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:09,319
Speaker 3: Is it kind of a flashman? This is still a

648
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 3: small sample size. My job when I'm met in the NFL,

649
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 3: so identify line value and the top of the market.

650
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:21,560
Speaker 3: I am seeing people saying Seattle will go to the

651
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 3: super Bowl. Gino Smith's gonna win MVP. The talk out

652
00:35:26,000 --> 00:35:30,400
Speaker 3: of the Seattle camp is insane to me. Feels like

653
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 3: the top of the market for a Seattle team that

654
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 3: coming into the air. Remember just eight weeks ago everyone

655
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,600
Speaker 3: said is the worst team in the NFL. Now they're

656
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 3: the best. They're the best in the NFC. No, not

657
00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 3: so fast. Plus the revenge factor here in a divisional

658
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:47,360
Speaker 3: game within a three week stretch. I always liked the

659
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:50,239
Speaker 3: team that lost. I don't love the staff Arizona, but

660
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:53,040
Speaker 3: I do like their defensive staff because the team that won,

661
00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 3: who didn't do anything in that game, the average four

662
00:35:55,080 --> 00:35:56,919
Speaker 3: and a half yards for play. They don't they don't

663
00:35:56,920 --> 00:35:59,720
Speaker 3: tend to make the adjustments in these quick turnaround revenge

664
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 3: DIVISI spots like Arizona will do stuff. They also have

665
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:04,880
Speaker 3: Hopkins for this matchup. You know, Kyler Murray's legs were

666
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:06,800
Speaker 3: big in that first game. I'm sure they will be again.

667
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 3: But if you look at Geno Smith, it's like, Okay,

668
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 3: last week against the Giants, he threw for two hundred yards.

669
00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:14,360
Speaker 3: Against the Chargers, he threw for two hundred yards against

670
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:16,840
Speaker 3: the Cardinals. He threw for under two hundred against the

671
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 3: Saints in a spot where they'll come back from London,

672
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,600
Speaker 3: where every team goes over their team total, and you

673
00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:23,839
Speaker 3: know they were in comeback mode. Hey threw for two

674
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 3: to seventy against San Franz who was stopping the run,

675
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:29,239
Speaker 3: one hundred and ninety, against Denver, who was stopping the

676
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:31,799
Speaker 3: run one hundred and ninety. And then he threw for

677
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 3: like seven hundred combined yards against the Falcons and Lions,

678
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:38,839
Speaker 3: because that's what everyone does. So I think that the

679
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:42,440
Speaker 3: Gino Smith has been an amazing high complete percentage. He

680
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 3: grades out even if you adjust for opponent. Some of

681
00:36:44,760 --> 00:36:46,920
Speaker 3: these opponents have had injuries very well, but a lot

682
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 3: of this damage has come in favorable situations, favorable game states,

683
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:54,400
Speaker 3: favorable opponents, and I just think that the love for

684
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:59,440
Speaker 3: Seattle has gone way overboard. So getting Arizona here at

685
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 3: minus two at home, to me, I have to take it.

686
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 3: I will also take it live once they go down,

687
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:08,319
Speaker 3: relax a little bit on Seattle, give me the give

688
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 3: me Arizona and the fake sharp cliffs.

689
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:14,279
Speaker 2: I don't know. My gut's telling me. My gut's telling

690
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 2: me this is Seattle is going this game. And as

691
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,400
Speaker 2: Arizona also a lot unluckier than Seattle, you know, our

692
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,759
Speaker 2: luck rankings have been crushing, and that kind of identifies

693
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:27,759
Speaker 2: as one of the top plays Arizona against Seattle. The

694
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:29,320
Speaker 2: one thing I will say is, you know when you

695
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 2: talk about kind of you know, top of the market,

696
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 2: and you have been pretty good identifying that. I think

697
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:35,880
Speaker 2: you had the Steelers at the right time, and the

698
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 2: Packers obviously so. But like I always prefer to be

699
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 2: getting points in these situations, Like I would love to

700
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 2: fade Seattle as a favorite, but you know here they

701
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 2: are still an underdog. I just really can't get a

702
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 2: handle on this Arizona team Cliff, you know what I mean.

703
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 2: You might might be mad at Cliff after this one.

704
00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 3: I might, but I have to sell this is not

705
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 3: This is not a out the Cardinals more as it

706
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 3: is about selling Seattle, and I think this is the

707
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:07,080
Speaker 3: right time to do it.

708
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 2: If Seattle wins this game, are they favored at home

709
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:12,359
Speaker 2: against Tampa Bay in Week ten?

710
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 3: It depends what Tampa does.

711
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, what a what a season? Man? I mean,

712
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:23,040
Speaker 2: I'll be room for you for my third pick and

713
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 2: the sixth overall of the Week nine Sunday six pack,

714
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 2: presented by Fan Duel. I am going with here's an

715
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 2: uncomfortable one. Let's take a team that's only half a

716
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 2: team because they don't have a defense. But I'm still

717
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 2: taking them. Detroit plus three and a half at home

718
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:45,760
Speaker 2: against the Green Bay Packers.

719
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 3: Hello, Detroit.

720
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 2: One. This is the time of the season. You know,

721
00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 2: it's a shorter slate. The only guy, I think, what eleven, twelve,

722
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 2: ten or eleven games here? When I'm looking for things

723
00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 2: and edge, I'm attacking teams and testing them and seeing

724
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 2: if they can beat me. And that's what I'm doing.

725
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 2: It is Green Bay team because the Lions and you've

726
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:15,839
Speaker 2: talked about this on the road, Garret Goff turns into

727
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:19,239
Speaker 2: a pumpkin. Ten points per game? Are the Lions averaging

728
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 2: on the road. But let's look at their home games.

729
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 2: They played four home games thirty five points against Philadelphia

730
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:28,320
Speaker 2: and they lose by three, thirty six points against Washington,

731
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:31,400
Speaker 2: and they win by nine, forty five points against Seattle.

732
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:32,320
Speaker 2: They lose by.

733
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:35,200
Speaker 3: Three and twenty some of these games.

734
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:39,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, and twenty seven points last week at home against

735
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:44,840
Speaker 2: the Dolphins and they lose by four. Okay, cool. Obviously

736
00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:46,719
Speaker 2: some people will look at it and say, oh my god,

737
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 2: they can't guard anybody. They're scoring all these points, they're

738
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:53,719
Speaker 2: still losing games. But this is perfect why because we're

739
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 2: facing the green Bay Packers. The Green Bay Packers have

740
00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:59,120
Speaker 2: not scored more than twenty seven points in a game.

741
00:39:59,239 --> 00:40:01,560
Speaker 2: Yet in one of the games they scored twenty. They

742
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 2: did it twice. In one of the games they did

743
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 2: overtime to do it. So I welcome a shootout. Let's

744
00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 2: see if the Green Bay Packers are really, you know,

745
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 2: like completely unbroken and can actually put up a you know,

746
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:20,279
Speaker 2: thirty plus, which they're probably going to have to do

747
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 2: to win, to win, and cover this game. And by

748
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:27,360
Speaker 2: the way, Detroit thirty five, thirty six, forty five, twenty seven.

749
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 2: The Lions did that against four defenses that averaged a

750
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:36,759
Speaker 2: defensive dvo A rank of thirteenth. Three of them were

751
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 2: top fifteen, Philly was second, Seattle is eleventh, and Washington's fifteenth.

752
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:45,319
Speaker 2: Green Bay is twenty second. So this is one of

753
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 2: the lesser defense. And then it doesn't make sense because

754
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 2: green Bay has talent, but they're just I mean, Joe Barry,

755
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:54,480
Speaker 2: just the scheme, ain't it? In Green Bay? If you're

756
00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 2: a Green Bay Packer fan, you know all too well

757
00:40:57,000 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 2: everyone's calling for his head. But this defense under a

758
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 2: chief on a yearly basis, it seems like. And so

759
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 2: this will go down as one of the weaker defenses

760
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:09,319
Speaker 2: the Lions have faced at home for a team that's

761
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:12,600
Speaker 2: averaging well over thirty points per game at home early

762
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 2: down EPA per play allowed. The green Bay Packers are

763
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 2: dead last in the entire league. They are worse on

764
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 2: early downs from an EPA perspective than even the Detroit Lions.

765
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:29,959
Speaker 2: So this green Bay defense, yeah, hold this Lions team

766
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 2: to under twenty seven, which no one's been able to

767
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 2: do or Packers offense go out there and score thirty,

768
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 2: which you also haven't been able to do. I'll take

769
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:41,640
Speaker 2: my chances with either of those outcomes, especially getting more

770
00:41:41,680 --> 00:41:44,520
Speaker 2: than a field goal. Jared Goff eight yards per attempt

771
00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:47,720
Speaker 2: at home, eleven touchdowns, two picks on the road seven

772
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:51,319
Speaker 2: point two yards per attempt, one touchdown, four picks, and

773
00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:54,560
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers at home seven point two yards for attempt

774
00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 2: two hundred and forty four yards per game. Not great,

775
00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:00,600
Speaker 2: but they'll get it done five touchdowns, one pick, five

776
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 2: to one touchdown at interception ratio. On the road, Rogers

777
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:06,319
Speaker 2: just six point three yards per attempt, just two hundred

778
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:09,400
Speaker 2: and twelve passing yards per game, six touchdowns, three picks,

779
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 2: so just a two to one touchdown interception ratio. So

780
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 2: he hasn't been good outside of Wambo. And then you

781
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:22,239
Speaker 2: look at divisional home dogs by under six sixty and

782
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 2: forty against the spread since twenty eighteen, teams on a

783
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 2: four game against the spread losing streak, which Detroit is on,

784
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:33,200
Speaker 2: they haven't covered after being like the over gard wings

785
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:36,279
Speaker 2: of the league, they haven't covered in four games. But

786
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:40,280
Speaker 2: teams that have failed to cover for four straight in

787
00:42:40,600 --> 00:42:42,840
Speaker 2: Week six through nine forty one to twenty three and

788
00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 2: two against the spread sixty four percent since two thousand

789
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 2: and five, Aaron Rodgers. Everyone always talks about him in

790
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:55,800
Speaker 2: the division. Well through twenty fifteen in divisional road games, great,

791
00:42:56,239 --> 00:42:59,880
Speaker 2: sixteen and seven against the spread, fantastic, don't do no

792
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:04,920
Speaker 2: want to fade him. But from twenty sixteen on just

793
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:08,520
Speaker 2: six and eleven against the spread? Is Aaron Rodgers in

794
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:12,160
Speaker 2: divisional road games? Or remember almost all of those games

795
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:16,840
Speaker 2: he had DeVante Adams or some other form of better

796
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 2: receivers than he's going to have in this spot. In Detroit,

797
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 2: they play a lot of man coverage. They obviously haven't

798
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:25,640
Speaker 2: been great at it. They just fired their defensive backs coach,

799
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 2: So maybe they also have kind of the element of,

800
00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:29,799
Speaker 2: you know, maybe something will change, kind of like what

801
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:32,240
Speaker 2: you're talking about with the coops and their offensive coordinator.

802
00:43:32,239 --> 00:43:34,759
Speaker 2: Maybe they do something a little different, anything's better than

803
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:37,320
Speaker 2: what they've been doing. I'm gonna take this bad Lions

804
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:40,759
Speaker 2: defense and test the Green Bay Packers. Can you outscore

805
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:44,799
Speaker 2: this Lions team indoor at home? Or are we gonna

806
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:48,040
Speaker 2: see the same old Packers team That's just not quite right.

807
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:49,799
Speaker 2: Just like a lot of these other teams with these

808
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:53,439
Speaker 2: older quarterbacks just not quite right. This year, I'm gonna

809
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:55,680
Speaker 2: test them. Give me Detroit plus three and a half

810
00:43:55,960 --> 00:44:00,520
Speaker 2: against the pack try.

811
00:44:01,640 --> 00:44:03,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm a little worried about this one. Maybe maybe

812
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:06,359
Speaker 3: because I just have PTSD from having Detroit last week

813
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:08,839
Speaker 3: plus three and a half at home in a game

814
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:11,400
Speaker 3: that led led two touchdowns and led the entire game

815
00:44:11,480 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 3: until the end, and then Goff throws it on fourth

816
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:15,960
Speaker 3: and one at the end, trying to go down the

817
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:19,759
Speaker 3: field instead of running upon that offensive line. I think

818
00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 3: the Green Bay offense is like I still think we're

819
00:44:24,120 --> 00:44:26,440
Speaker 3: close to the bottom of the market and Green Bead

820
00:44:26,520 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 3: like they got the cover last week. They're but I

821
00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:32,279
Speaker 3: just feel like they're gonna have a game where the

822
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:35,320
Speaker 3: the offense and look, you're I don't blame me for

823
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:37,879
Speaker 3: just making them prove it, but like there's still top

824
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 3: ten and success right on offense, and if they get

825
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 3: a lead, which they could go against Detroit, that's when

826
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:48,160
Speaker 3: their defense will actually work. Yeah, I'm a little afraid

827
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:52,279
Speaker 3: of Like, Okay, the Packers office isn't great, but they've

828
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:56,200
Speaker 3: been running unlucky and like the lines would be that

829
00:44:56,320 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 3: opponent that would just of course would like everything would

830
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:02,480
Speaker 3: go right. So but I don't mind taking the three

831
00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 3: year over three year.

832
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:06,720
Speaker 2: That's kind of why I like this bet. It's because

833
00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:09,719
Speaker 2: the Packers could have a game where they turn it

834
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:12,439
Speaker 2: around on offense and they're still not guaranteed to cover

835
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:15,440
Speaker 2: or with because the Lions are putting up, you know,

836
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:18,520
Speaker 2: thirty five points a game at home like this could

837
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:20,719
Speaker 2: just be a shootout. So yeah, prove it to me,

838
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 2: Green Bay, prove it to me. All right. That is

839
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 2: going to wrap it for our week number nine Sunday

840
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:32,040
Speaker 2: six pack presented by Fan Duel. But see who we

841
00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:36,200
Speaker 2: got for quarterbacks? We got the We got Kyler, we

842
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 2: got Ellenger, we got Tom Brady. So okay, you got Heinike, PJ.

843
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:43,520
Speaker 2: Walker and Goff. Yeah, so you got the again, you

844
00:45:43,600 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 2: got the stars. Kind of a role reversal. Usually it's

845
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:50,799
Speaker 2: you with the uglier quarterbacks, I would say, but uh,

846
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 2: Arizona minus two for you quarterback, I know pretty much. Yeah,

847
00:45:57,200 --> 00:45:59,800
Speaker 2: And Kyler was for most of the year too, without

848
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:04,800
Speaker 2: Hopkins Arizona minus two. Coach plus five and a half

849
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:09,280
Speaker 2: and the Bucks minus three for Stuckey for me, Washington

850
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 2: plus three and a half, Carolina plus seven and a

851
00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 2: half and the Lions three and a half. Now it

852
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:19,319
Speaker 2: is time for an hour week number nine Coaches Pep Talk.

853
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:21,759
Speaker 3: Every time we get ready to play, I just want

854
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:23,799
Speaker 3: to throw up, so the press, I don't even want

855
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:25,480
Speaker 3: to talk about it. I'm sick.

856
00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:29,600
Speaker 2: I'm watching you guys play. Just how bad can it get? All? Right?

857
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 2: This week's Coaches Pep Talk comes to us from actor

858
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:39,040
Speaker 2: Charlie Day in the twenty seventeen film Fistfight. And we

859
00:46:39,120 --> 00:46:43,440
Speaker 2: got to dedicate this to Josh McDaniels because of all

860
00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 2: things for the Raiders to do, just go lay an

861
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:49,439
Speaker 2: egg against the New Orleans defense that really hadn't been

862
00:46:49,560 --> 00:46:53,480
Speaker 2: good all year, missing Marshawn and Lattimore. I still can't

863
00:46:53,520 --> 00:46:57,560
Speaker 2: put my finger on exactly what was going on with

864
00:46:57,640 --> 00:47:02,600
Speaker 2: that Raider team in Orland. So Josh McDaniels, this one's

865
00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:06,320
Speaker 2: for you guys. You know, look, you try to be

866
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:10,040
Speaker 2: a nice guy right and treat everyone with respect, but

867
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:12,200
Speaker 2: you don't get it. You don't get it back in return.

868
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:15,200
Speaker 2: You know why? Because nice guys they finished last Yeah,

869
00:47:15,880 --> 00:47:19,160
Speaker 2: and you're gonna say, hey, I'm a nice guy. I'm

870
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:21,720
Speaker 2: doing okay, and the world is gonna un sip his pants,

871
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:25,080
Speaker 2: pull them down, and take a giant fucking shit all

872
00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:29,200
Speaker 2: over you. Guys. I just can't win, guys. I cannot

873
00:47:29,239 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 2: win all right. Now's get into our favorite total of

874
00:47:32,120 --> 00:47:37,360
Speaker 2: the week. I am going with the Jets Bills under

875
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:42,279
Speaker 2: forty six and a half. I think both of these

876
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:47,320
Speaker 2: defenses are very good, and there's only one good offense

877
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:51,680
Speaker 2: in this game. So forty six points forty seven points

878
00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:55,920
Speaker 2: a lot of points for these two teams in my opinion.

879
00:47:56,200 --> 00:47:58,520
Speaker 2: First of all, always look at the Let's look at

880
00:47:58,560 --> 00:48:00,480
Speaker 2: the Jets, because I think the Jets said, you know,

881
00:48:00,560 --> 00:48:03,560
Speaker 2: if you haven't been following too close, you might not

882
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:07,040
Speaker 2: realize just how good the Jets defense is starting to become.

883
00:48:07,120 --> 00:48:10,359
Speaker 2: And I yes, I know they face some backup quarterbacks

884
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:13,920
Speaker 2: and whatnot, but you look at the talent on this team.

885
00:48:14,440 --> 00:48:18,239
Speaker 2: I think this defense is for real. They're eighth in DVOA,

886
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:20,919
Speaker 2: eighth against the past, eighth against the run. They're number

887
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:23,240
Speaker 2: three in pressure rate, and they blitzed at a bottom

888
00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:25,960
Speaker 2: five rate, which means they're getting home with their front four.

889
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:29,440
Speaker 2: Quintin Williams has been a monster, thirty two pressures, seven

890
00:48:29,520 --> 00:48:34,200
Speaker 2: sacks every single Buffalo interior alignment. So both guards and

891
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 2: the center Moors are ranked below average across the board

892
00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:41,640
Speaker 2: in PFF grades. So I think he's gonna be tough

893
00:48:41,680 --> 00:48:45,600
Speaker 2: to deal with on the inside. But you're not gonna ever, like,

894
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:49,720
Speaker 2: you know, contain this Buffalo offense or you're never gonna

895
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:52,040
Speaker 2: like fully shut it out. But this is the best

896
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:55,720
Speaker 2: defense Buffalo has faced thus far this year. That's saying

897
00:48:55,719 --> 00:48:58,839
Speaker 2: something here, because Buffalo is one in six towards the over,

898
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 2: or said another way, there's one towards the under, and

899
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:04,680
Speaker 2: they've been facing defenses there are a lot worse than

900
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:07,280
Speaker 2: the Jets. You have two top five corners in coverage

901
00:49:07,280 --> 00:49:11,000
Speaker 2: grade and Sauce Gardner who's second, and DJ Reid Junior

902
00:49:11,200 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 2: who's fifth. So the most you can ask for when

903
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:17,759
Speaker 2: you're going against Gigs and Gabriel Davis. You look on

904
00:49:17,800 --> 00:49:19,840
Speaker 2: the other side of the ball and you say, okay,

905
00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 2: you know, Buffalo their defense top five, and they've already

906
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:28,400
Speaker 2: faced three top five offenses. They faced Kansas City first,

907
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:32,200
Speaker 2: Baltimore second, in Miami's fifth. All three of them, Buffalo

908
00:49:32,239 --> 00:49:36,279
Speaker 2: held them to twenty one points or fewer. They faced

909
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:40,680
Speaker 2: three offenses that rank twentieth third below. Like the Jets,

910
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:44,320
Speaker 2: who are twenty first Buffalo, allowing six point seven points

911
00:49:44,360 --> 00:49:48,160
Speaker 2: per game to those offenses with a high of ten.

912
00:49:48,640 --> 00:49:52,719
Speaker 2: No offense ranked twentieth or below has equipped ten points

913
00:49:52,920 --> 00:49:56,400
Speaker 2: against this Bill's defense. I don't think the Jets will

914
00:49:56,760 --> 00:50:00,279
Speaker 2: be able to hear either. The Jets are fourth worst

915
00:50:00,280 --> 00:50:03,800
Speaker 2: and third down conversion rates since Zach Wilson returned, and

916
00:50:04,040 --> 00:50:06,760
Speaker 2: you know we've talked about his passer rating under pressure.

917
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:11,680
Speaker 2: It's abysmal. It's under fifteen. So I don't think the

918
00:50:11,760 --> 00:50:14,719
Speaker 2: Jets are gonna have much success moving the football. And

919
00:50:14,800 --> 00:50:17,360
Speaker 2: I think the Bills they'll still be good on offense,

920
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 2: but they won't. They'll have their toughest matchup that they've

921
00:50:21,560 --> 00:50:25,799
Speaker 2: had yet this season Divisional unders in games played outdoors

922
00:50:26,280 --> 00:50:30,840
Speaker 2: nineteen and six seventy six percent this season, fifty five

923
00:50:31,000 --> 00:50:34,400
Speaker 2: and thirty three, sixty three percent since the start of

924
00:50:34,480 --> 00:50:37,520
Speaker 2: last season, covering by almost three points per game. So

925
00:50:37,600 --> 00:50:41,080
Speaker 2: give me the Bills Jets under forty six and a half.

926
00:50:41,440 --> 00:50:43,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, this number is a tad. I from my likings,

927
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:46,880
Speaker 3: I really want to play the Bills. I this sets

928
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:49,080
Speaker 3: up as a classic Bills game that they win a

929
00:50:49,120 --> 00:50:52,239
Speaker 3: lot of games without double digits, and like they know

930
00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:53,839
Speaker 3: if they know when the Jets are going to throw

931
00:50:54,360 --> 00:50:57,959
Speaker 3: trying to come back, Like, I don't mind this under

932
00:50:58,080 --> 00:51:00,879
Speaker 3: the only think you have the Dodges and over Zach

933
00:51:00,920 --> 00:51:04,880
Speaker 3: Wilson pick sixes. He under pressure because the Bills And

934
00:51:05,080 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 3: I had that down here too in my handicap, which

935
00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:09,320
Speaker 3: is why I knew where you were going with it.

936
00:51:09,400 --> 00:51:12,080
Speaker 3: The just third highest pressure rate and they don't blitz,

937
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:14,520
Speaker 3: and they do it on third downs too. They can

938
00:51:14,520 --> 00:51:18,000
Speaker 3: get pressure and they're dropping their safeties back good corners,

939
00:51:18,000 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 3: but they can prevent the explosive plays here and make

940
00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:24,440
Speaker 3: the Bills drive down the field and then so I

941
00:51:24,440 --> 00:51:27,120
Speaker 3: think that's an important handicapper. But Zach Wills, Zack Wills

942
00:51:27,160 --> 00:51:30,280
Speaker 3: is gonna under pressure also without the Bills having to blitz,

943
00:51:30,920 --> 00:51:33,960
Speaker 3: and he's nine to forty seven for one hundred and

944
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:38,800
Speaker 3: forty yards, three point three yards per attempt, one touchdown,

945
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:41,919
Speaker 3: five picks under pressure. I mean, he's just gonna spin

946
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:44,200
Speaker 3: out of the pocket and run around and throw it

947
00:51:44,239 --> 00:51:46,399
Speaker 3: up and you gotta hope that the Bills don't catch

948
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:50,240
Speaker 3: it and return it for a touchdown. But it feels

949
00:51:50,280 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 3: to me like the number you're paying a premium for

950
00:51:52,440 --> 00:51:55,080
Speaker 3: the Bills here it's I don't. I can't. I don't

951
00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:57,760
Speaker 3: know if I can lay thirteen in a road divisional

952
00:51:57,800 --> 00:52:02,680
Speaker 3: game against a compety Jets defense. But I think, yeah,

953
00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:05,120
Speaker 3: I don't disagree with you under. I think it's Bills

954
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 3: are nothing because I just think that the Jets their

955
00:52:07,560 --> 00:52:10,680
Speaker 3: defense is good, but it's overrated because the quarterbacks they

956
00:52:10,680 --> 00:52:13,440
Speaker 3: face and like you said, you're not gonna stop this

957
00:52:13,920 --> 00:52:17,080
Speaker 3: Bill's offense. So the Bills should get a lead, and

958
00:52:17,120 --> 00:52:18,880
Speaker 3: then the Bills are gonna like Denn It's gonna be

959
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:21,640
Speaker 3: Zach Wilson trying to come back against the Bills. That's

960
00:52:21,680 --> 00:52:24,399
Speaker 3: not gonna end well. For my favorite total, I'm gonna

961
00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:28,759
Speaker 3: go with the Titans Chiefs under under forty six and

962
00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:32,600
Speaker 3: a half. This is like the Titans. I don't know

963
00:52:32,640 --> 00:52:35,000
Speaker 3: how they win games. They last week was the first

964
00:52:35,040 --> 00:52:37,359
Speaker 3: game they should have won and I finally won money

965
00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:42,040
Speaker 3: faded them and it sease. But yeah, they won last

966
00:52:42,040 --> 00:52:43,800
Speaker 3: week by handing the ball to Derrick Henry. Derrick Henry

967
00:52:43,840 --> 00:52:49,400
Speaker 3: has seventy nine more rushing yards than any other player

968
00:52:49,680 --> 00:52:51,759
Speaker 3: from weeks four to eight, and he had a buy

969
00:52:53,320 --> 00:52:55,600
Speaker 3: So they're just people were just heading in the ball.

970
00:52:56,160 --> 00:52:57,960
Speaker 3: I taught and they're the slowest team in the NFL

971
00:52:58,000 --> 00:53:02,399
Speaker 3: as a result, but there's limited elsewhere. And the reason

972
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:04,480
Speaker 3: that I like this under is that the Chiefs run

973
00:53:04,520 --> 00:53:07,600
Speaker 3: defense has actually improved this year, some of their new pieces.

974
00:53:07,680 --> 00:53:09,840
Speaker 3: I mean, if you look at the Chiefs run defense

975
00:53:09,920 --> 00:53:13,560
Speaker 3: numbers in recent seasons, I know our colleague Matt Moore

976
00:53:14,480 --> 00:53:17,960
Speaker 3: would get tired of me basically on a record player

977
00:53:18,000 --> 00:53:20,399
Speaker 3: saying like, the Chiefs run defense is poverty. It's part

978
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:25,879
Speaker 3: because it was and they couldn't stop anybody. And now

979
00:53:25,920 --> 00:53:28,759
Speaker 3: if you look their middle of the pack is the

980
00:53:28,760 --> 00:53:32,759
Speaker 3: team that's about fourteenth in EPA per rush and you

981
00:53:32,800 --> 00:53:35,960
Speaker 3: know they're like twenty third I think in rush success rate.

982
00:53:36,800 --> 00:53:39,640
Speaker 3: Not a good run defense. I would say slightly below

983
00:53:39,680 --> 00:53:44,080
Speaker 3: average overall, before this was dead last by far, thirty

984
00:53:44,120 --> 00:53:48,399
Speaker 3: second ranked run defense in the NFL. You know they're

985
00:53:48,400 --> 00:53:53,160
Speaker 3: also coming off of a buye here. It's a smart staff.

986
00:53:53,160 --> 00:53:56,240
Speaker 3: They know it's coming here. Titans have the worst receiving

987
00:53:56,640 --> 00:54:00,560
Speaker 3: room in the NFL and they're gonna load the and

988
00:54:00,840 --> 00:54:03,399
Speaker 3: I don't think that Derrick Henry's going to have much

989
00:54:03,400 --> 00:54:05,880
Speaker 3: success here. He'll get his, but it's not going to

990
00:54:05,960 --> 00:54:08,799
Speaker 3: dominate the game like you did against Houston, Kansas City

991
00:54:08,840 --> 00:54:12,920
Speaker 3: will get a lead and they'll drain this clockout. That's

992
00:54:12,960 --> 00:54:15,640
Speaker 3: what they do at home against bad teams. And if

993
00:54:15,680 --> 00:54:18,759
Speaker 3: you look under Andy Reid, and for what it's worth,

994
00:54:18,920 --> 00:54:23,160
Speaker 3: the under over the last thirty years has hit fifty

995
00:54:23,320 --> 00:54:26,160
Speaker 3: five and a half percent of the time in games

996
00:54:26,160 --> 00:54:28,800
Speaker 3: where the home team is favored by more than ten points.

997
00:54:29,280 --> 00:54:31,799
Speaker 3: Chiefs unders and home games under Andy Reid have always

998
00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:34,120
Speaker 3: been a thing. When they're a favorite forty three to

999
00:54:34,239 --> 00:54:37,680
Speaker 3: twenty five and one sixty four percent going under by

1000
00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:39,920
Speaker 3: four points per game. How about when they're favored by

1001
00:54:39,960 --> 00:54:42,880
Speaker 3: seven plus points at home twenty four to ten and

1002
00:54:43,000 --> 00:54:46,959
Speaker 3: one seventy percent going under by a touchdown a game.

1003
00:54:47,239 --> 00:54:50,320
Speaker 3: How about is a double digit favor fourteen and five

1004
00:54:51,440 --> 00:54:54,440
Speaker 3: seventy percent going under by eight points per game? So

1005
00:54:54,520 --> 00:54:56,799
Speaker 3: these games tend to play out the same way. Yeah,

1006
00:54:56,840 --> 00:54:59,880
Speaker 3: the Chiefs base basically what the Titans have done. If

1007
00:54:59,920 --> 00:55:02,080
Speaker 3: you look for their body of work this year, they

1008
00:55:02,080 --> 00:55:05,319
Speaker 3: can only score in like the scripted portion. Generally speaking, Well,

1009
00:55:05,360 --> 00:55:07,560
Speaker 3: the Chiefs are one of the best staffs in the NFL.

1010
00:55:07,560 --> 00:55:09,360
Speaker 3: They're coming off of a bye week. What do you

1011
00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:12,920
Speaker 3: think they spent their time doing here? It's not preparing

1012
00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:18,240
Speaker 3: for the complex Tennessee Titans passing attack. It's okay, load

1013
00:55:18,280 --> 00:55:19,759
Speaker 3: the box and let's see what they're doing in the

1014
00:55:19,800 --> 00:55:22,879
Speaker 3: scripted portion. So yeah, I think that they shut down

1015
00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:27,360
Speaker 3: Tennessee's offense here, they'll have success because Tennessee's defense, especially

1016
00:55:27,360 --> 00:55:29,560
Speaker 3: against the pass, is very suspect. They'll build a lead

1017
00:55:29,600 --> 00:55:32,320
Speaker 3: and this thing will grind to a halt. Give me

1018
00:55:32,360 --> 00:55:32,760
Speaker 3: the under.

1019
00:55:33,600 --> 00:55:35,800
Speaker 2: We're both betting under forty six and a half. Sometimes

1020
00:55:35,840 --> 00:55:38,560
Speaker 2: we're going under like forty thirty nine, forty one, like

1021
00:55:39,200 --> 00:55:42,600
Speaker 2: this is like a legit above average NFL score here,

1022
00:55:42,600 --> 00:55:43,800
Speaker 2: So I think it's.

1023
00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:47,360
Speaker 3: Too I mean, read off the buys been killer ray bowls,

1024
00:55:47,400 --> 00:55:50,200
Speaker 3: a dog that has been great. I like the under too,

1025
00:55:50,239 --> 00:55:53,640
Speaker 3: so I don't want to lay thirteen here backdoor risk always.

1026
00:55:53,640 --> 00:55:56,520
Speaker 3: But I do think Chiefs are the side because I

1027
00:55:56,560 --> 00:55:59,759
Speaker 3: think they'll like they're just gonna get a lead and

1028
00:55:59,760 --> 00:56:02,160
Speaker 3: then the Titans offense is going to go into pieces

1029
00:56:02,200 --> 00:56:03,400
Speaker 3: and then there's nothing they can do.

1030
00:56:04,640 --> 00:56:06,719
Speaker 2: Definitely, I think the total is the right play, just

1031
00:56:06,760 --> 00:56:09,200
Speaker 2: based on I think you have more outs. It would

1032
00:56:09,280 --> 00:56:12,680
Speaker 2: never surprise me if anyone comes out flat offensively these days.

1033
00:56:12,680 --> 00:56:16,480
Speaker 2: So either way, the Titans route to victory is keeping

1034
00:56:16,680 --> 00:56:19,400
Speaker 2: Kansas City off the scoreboard. Kansas City's route to victory

1035
00:56:19,480 --> 00:56:23,640
Speaker 2: is Tennessee not scoring. So all right, so Bill Jets

1036
00:56:23,680 --> 00:56:27,240
Speaker 2: under forty six and a half, Titans Chiefs under forty

1037
00:56:27,280 --> 00:56:30,000
Speaker 2: six and a half. Now, let's get into our favorite

1038
00:56:30,000 --> 00:56:31,239
Speaker 2: teaser every week.

1039
00:56:32,120 --> 00:56:35,319
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1040
00:56:36,680 --> 00:56:50,880
Speaker 2: Don't don't tease me. Where are you going for this week?

1041
00:56:51,440 --> 00:56:54,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's go to seat the Jags over a touchdown.

1042
00:56:55,400 --> 00:56:57,680
Speaker 3: Obviously the premise of that article, which you'll see is

1043
00:56:58,040 --> 00:57:01,200
Speaker 3: ideally you want to tease through three and seven. Well,

1044
00:57:01,280 --> 00:57:04,520
Speaker 3: were the total the better if possible? But yeah, Jags

1045
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:07,640
Speaker 3: and Raiders two teams that just they're just always gonna

1046
00:57:07,640 --> 00:57:09,920
Speaker 3: disappoint you. But they can't. And and what I mean

1047
00:57:09,960 --> 00:57:11,400
Speaker 3: about that is they're never gonna get margin. Like this

1048
00:57:11,440 --> 00:57:13,759
Speaker 3: game should go right down on the wire, you know.

1049
00:57:13,800 --> 00:57:15,680
Speaker 3: And like the Jags are coming back from London, they've

1050
00:57:15,680 --> 00:57:18,120
Speaker 3: done it before, not many have done the same week,

1051
00:57:18,160 --> 00:57:20,200
Speaker 3: but like the Raiders are also out on the East

1052
00:57:20,240 --> 00:57:23,920
Speaker 3: Coast on their second road game after New Orleans. One

1053
00:57:23,920 --> 00:57:25,600
Speaker 3: of the explanations for what happened last week is there

1054
00:57:25,600 --> 00:57:28,400
Speaker 3: was a virus going around that entire locker room. I

1055
00:57:28,440 --> 00:57:30,919
Speaker 3: don't think I'm past the fifty by the way until

1056
00:57:30,960 --> 00:57:34,120
Speaker 3: like the YU yep. Yeah, But like some people were

1057
00:57:34,120 --> 00:57:35,840
Speaker 3: saying it was COVID, some people were saying it was flu.

1058
00:57:35,880 --> 00:57:37,440
Speaker 3: Some people were saying it was like a stomach virus.

1059
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:40,800
Speaker 3: Dadams was dealing with it, and so they were like,

1060
00:57:40,880 --> 00:57:43,520
Speaker 3: and they I've watched a couple when I watched that game,

1061
00:57:43,560 --> 00:57:46,640
Speaker 3: it was like they looked, Now, it's hard because I'm like,

1062
00:57:46,640 --> 00:57:49,080
Speaker 3: I'm biased, but they to me because I heard this

1063
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:52,920
Speaker 3: before and then but yeah, they look flat lethargic. And

1064
00:57:53,000 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 3: so we'll see if there's any after effects of that

1065
00:57:55,520 --> 00:57:59,560
Speaker 3: now going down, uh, going over to Florida. But regardless

1066
00:57:59,560 --> 00:58:02,360
Speaker 3: of games I think will be played within one possession.

1067
00:58:02,840 --> 00:58:06,040
Speaker 3: And then give me the Bengals going against your Panthers.

1068
00:58:06,800 --> 00:58:09,880
Speaker 3: I don't mind your bet, but I do think that

1069
00:58:10,160 --> 00:58:15,560
Speaker 3: Burrow well at least ensure that the Bengals pulled this out.

1070
00:58:16,560 --> 00:58:19,040
Speaker 2: You would hope, you would hope you can get an

1071
00:58:19,080 --> 00:58:22,120
Speaker 2: ugreet to Cincinnati sometimes, but yeah, I would.

1072
00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:25,280
Speaker 3: We can pop the champagne bottles for the Ravens winning

1073
00:58:25,360 --> 00:58:28,240
Speaker 3: the division, right, that would be lights out.

1074
00:58:28,680 --> 00:58:30,040
Speaker 2: I mean, they always seem to make it hard on

1075
00:58:30,040 --> 00:58:33,200
Speaker 2: themselves too. This season's got a long way to go,

1076
00:58:33,360 --> 00:58:37,400
Speaker 2: I mean, especially in the NFC. But yeah, it's nothing,

1077
00:58:37,600 --> 00:58:42,000
Speaker 2: nothing is wrapped up. I would go with the I'll

1078
00:58:42,000 --> 00:58:45,840
Speaker 2: go with the Jags as well, because I kind of

1079
00:58:45,880 --> 00:58:49,880
Speaker 2: regret I'm worried. Who're you worried about Trevor Lawrence And

1080
00:58:50,000 --> 00:58:52,800
Speaker 2: he's only been good against the Colts really and a

1081
00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:55,360
Speaker 2: game against Jacksonville, I mean a game against the Charges

1082
00:58:55,360 --> 00:58:58,160
Speaker 2: where he didn't really have to do a ton. But

1083
00:58:58,760 --> 00:59:00,640
Speaker 2: I'm not seeing a type of improved that I would

1084
00:59:00,720 --> 00:59:03,040
Speaker 2: like to see in year two. I know it's, you know,

1085
00:59:03,200 --> 00:59:05,200
Speaker 2: first year in the new scheme and new system again,

1086
00:59:05,280 --> 00:59:10,200
Speaker 2: but still some bad decisions, inaccurate throws, just things that

1087
00:59:10,480 --> 00:59:13,640
Speaker 2: you don't want to see but still think against.

1088
00:59:13,800 --> 00:59:18,560
Speaker 3: But still, what's the record? And six and six they

1089
00:59:18,640 --> 00:59:20,560
Speaker 3: lost no games on more than one possession.

1090
00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:22,760
Speaker 2: For yeah, exactly, it's you know they're and I love

1091
00:59:22,800 --> 00:59:27,200
Speaker 2: ETN and the Raiders have just been getting decimated by

1092
00:59:27,320 --> 00:59:30,600
Speaker 2: running backs. Give me the Jags up to seven and

1093
00:59:30,640 --> 00:59:33,160
Speaker 2: a half, and then I'll go Seahawks up to plus eight.

1094
00:59:33,240 --> 00:59:34,840
Speaker 2: I know you like the Cardinals in this spot, but

1095
00:59:35,320 --> 00:59:37,680
Speaker 2: I still think it'll be a close game. I think

1096
00:59:37,680 --> 00:59:39,960
Speaker 2: the only it was the only game the Seahawks lost

1097
00:59:40,040 --> 00:59:42,240
Speaker 2: by more than one possession. I think it was that

1098
00:59:42,440 --> 00:59:45,280
Speaker 2: Niners game and Week two, if I'm not mistaken, everything

1099
00:59:45,280 --> 00:59:49,120
Speaker 2: else has been within one possession. So divisional matchup. Still

1100
00:59:49,120 --> 00:59:51,040
Speaker 2: think it could go either way. So I'll see the

1101
00:59:51,080 --> 00:59:53,480
Speaker 2: Seahawks up to eight along with the Jags to seven

1102
00:59:53,560 --> 00:59:56,240
Speaker 2: and a half. All right, that is going to do

1103
00:59:56,280 --> 01:00:01,880
Speaker 2: it for our teezers again. Stuck has the Bengals down

1104
01:00:01,920 --> 01:00:04,520
Speaker 2: to one and a half and the Jaguars up to

1105
01:00:04,560 --> 01:00:06,840
Speaker 2: seven and a half. I have the Jaguars up to

1106
01:00:06,840 --> 01:00:09,439
Speaker 2: seven and a half and the Seahawks up to eight.

1107
01:00:10,120 --> 01:00:13,360
Speaker 2: Now it's time for our money line underdog parlay.

1108
01:00:16,320 --> 01:00:21,280
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1109
01:00:21,440 --> 01:00:22,760
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

1110
01:00:24,400 --> 01:00:27,360
Speaker 2: Being the Saints, you hit another moneyline underdog, so you

1111
01:00:28,280 --> 01:00:31,240
Speaker 2: hits six six out of the eight weeks you have hit,

1112
01:00:31,640 --> 01:00:36,439
Speaker 2: so people don't even parlaym just just tails Tucky's dog

1113
01:00:36,560 --> 01:00:39,600
Speaker 2: because you're crushing it. I've only hit three so far,

1114
01:00:39,760 --> 01:00:44,280
Speaker 2: so I am lagging behind. But where are you going

1115
01:00:44,880 --> 01:00:45,680
Speaker 2: for this week?

1116
01:00:46,160 --> 01:00:48,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's get a little crazy. I'm gonna go with

1117
01:00:48,720 --> 01:00:52,680
Speaker 3: the Bears. The forecast hasn't helped in the last couple

1118
01:00:52,680 --> 01:00:55,240
Speaker 3: of hours, but maybe there's there's gonna be some win.

1119
01:00:55,720 --> 01:00:58,600
Speaker 3: I was hoping for some brain dude, some things are

1120
01:00:58,640 --> 01:01:00,919
Speaker 3: gonna have to change. But the best teams in the NFL,

1121
01:01:00,960 --> 01:01:04,600
Speaker 3: in my opinion, are the Bills the Bears in weather,

1122
01:01:04,960 --> 01:01:08,080
Speaker 3: that's that's the only time the Bears win, and then

1123
01:01:08,200 --> 01:01:10,960
Speaker 3: Justin Fields just runs around and makes plays and it

1124
01:01:11,040 --> 01:01:15,200
Speaker 3: limits the opposing the other offense passing attack. But I

1125
01:01:15,240 --> 01:01:17,880
Speaker 3: think this line is just you know, gotten a little

1126
01:01:18,520 --> 01:01:21,760
Speaker 3: too far out there, and I think this Soldier Field

1127
01:01:22,440 --> 01:01:25,960
Speaker 3: limits the Dolphins feed a little bit introduce some bearriants.

1128
01:01:26,360 --> 01:01:27,840
Speaker 3: So yeah, let's go with the Bears.

1129
01:01:28,360 --> 01:01:30,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, another team. I kind of thought about them with

1130
01:01:30,640 --> 01:01:34,520
Speaker 2: the with the spread, but I do think this is

1131
01:01:34,560 --> 01:01:37,720
Speaker 2: probably a better way to attack it because I also

1132
01:01:37,760 --> 01:01:40,720
Speaker 2: watched their run defense last week and like, this could

1133
01:01:40,720 --> 01:01:42,640
Speaker 2: be the week Miami could finally you know, we're going

1134
01:01:42,720 --> 01:01:45,680
Speaker 2: to get moster going. But I agree, I think you know,

1135
01:01:45,720 --> 01:01:47,920
Speaker 2: this Bears team, you know, they showed me some things

1136
01:01:47,960 --> 01:01:51,560
Speaker 2: going on the road to Foxborough and coming out with

1137
01:01:51,560 --> 01:01:54,800
Speaker 2: a better game plan than the Patriots and doing their things,

1138
01:01:54,840 --> 01:01:57,080
Speaker 2: So I don't mind it at all. And speaking of

1139
01:01:57,120 --> 01:02:00,600
Speaker 2: which I'm gonna go with the Colts here plus five

1140
01:02:01,120 --> 01:02:04,840
Speaker 2: on FanDuel. And it's for kind of that exact reason

1141
01:02:04,960 --> 01:02:07,160
Speaker 2: you mentioned it. The Patriots have been a little bit

1142
01:02:07,240 --> 01:02:10,640
Speaker 2: Jacko and hide, and it used to be okay, you

1143
01:02:10,680 --> 01:02:15,400
Speaker 2: can't have a young quarterback come into Foxborough and get

1144
01:02:15,400 --> 01:02:17,440
Speaker 2: a win, But then then the Bears happened a couple

1145
01:02:17,440 --> 01:02:20,640
Speaker 2: of weeks ago, and you know, this Coast team could

1146
01:02:20,640 --> 01:02:22,520
Speaker 2: do a lot of the same things, except they can

1147
01:02:22,560 --> 01:02:25,120
Speaker 2: actually stop the run. But they have a mobile quarterback,

1148
01:02:25,520 --> 01:02:28,440
Speaker 2: not a ton of tape out, even less tape than

1149
01:02:28,480 --> 01:02:32,720
Speaker 2: fields obviously, And you know you have a guy in

1150
01:02:32,800 --> 01:02:35,440
Speaker 2: Frank Reichley mentioned tends to be at his best in

1151
01:02:35,800 --> 01:02:38,360
Speaker 2: these kind of spots, for better or for worse. So

1152
01:02:39,040 --> 01:02:41,280
Speaker 2: you know, the Coat could have easily beat the Commanders

1153
01:02:41,360 --> 01:02:44,520
Speaker 2: last week. I don't think the Patriots are like in

1154
01:02:44,560 --> 01:02:46,920
Speaker 2: a week team by any means. I think they are

1155
01:02:47,160 --> 01:02:49,160
Speaker 2: a team that's just kind of a little bit above

1156
01:02:49,480 --> 01:02:51,520
Speaker 2: above average. They got some good players, they got some

1157
01:02:51,640 --> 01:02:55,960
Speaker 2: not so good players. So in this kind of year,

1158
01:02:56,040 --> 01:02:59,440
Speaker 2: give me the Coat plus two five in Foxborough with

1159
01:02:59,560 --> 01:03:03,000
Speaker 2: the young QB. So if you take the Bears plus

1160
01:03:03,000 --> 01:03:05,240
Speaker 2: one to eighty against the Dolphins and the Colts plus

1161
01:03:05,240 --> 01:03:10,160
Speaker 2: two five against the Patriots, you're going to get just

1162
01:03:10,280 --> 01:03:13,240
Speaker 2: over seven and a half x your money, So one

1163
01:03:13,360 --> 01:03:18,360
Speaker 2: hundred dollars returns eight fifty four. Curtsey the Action Network

1164
01:03:18,400 --> 01:03:21,880
Speaker 2: parlay calculator, So hopefully I can pick up the slack

1165
01:03:21,920 --> 01:03:25,840
Speaker 2: here and we hit another parlay. Now it's time for

1166
01:03:27,160 --> 01:03:30,240
Speaker 2: Meaningful to some the new best of the Rest, where

1167
01:03:30,720 --> 01:03:33,560
Speaker 2: we cover the games that we have not talked about

1168
01:03:33,920 --> 01:03:38,520
Speaker 2: in any other segment but that are still as Ala

1169
01:03:38,560 --> 01:03:43,520
Speaker 2: Michaels loves to say meaningful to some That's.

1170
01:03:43,240 --> 01:03:45,400
Speaker 1: Going to be a touchdown, but that may be meaningful

1171
01:03:45,440 --> 01:03:49,120
Speaker 1: to some of you, and you know what I means.

1172
01:03:48,840 --> 01:03:51,840
Speaker 2: All right, So we just got one game. It's a

1173
01:03:51,920 --> 01:03:54,560
Speaker 2: light slate with a bunch of teams on buy, so

1174
01:03:54,600 --> 01:03:59,600
Speaker 2: it's just the Chargers and the Falcons. The game is

1175
01:03:59,640 --> 01:04:04,480
Speaker 2: being in Atlanta, so Atlanta stays home. They are plus

1176
01:04:04,560 --> 01:04:08,440
Speaker 2: three at home. The total is forty nine and a half.

1177
01:04:08,880 --> 01:04:12,440
Speaker 2: The News, as you alloted to earlier, looks like Keenan

1178
01:04:12,480 --> 01:04:16,480
Speaker 2: Allen suffered a setback, so he's not practicing. Josh Palmer's

1179
01:04:16,520 --> 01:04:21,000
Speaker 2: been queered and par him the tight end has been queered,

1180
01:04:21,040 --> 01:04:23,920
Speaker 2: but no Mike Williams for about a month or more,

1181
01:04:24,320 --> 01:04:26,960
Speaker 2: so his Chargers offense is still even coming off to

1182
01:04:27,000 --> 01:04:31,920
Speaker 2: buy not post to full strength. And then obviously you know,

1183
01:04:32,080 --> 01:04:35,120
Speaker 2: still missing Slater, still missing bos On defense, no J. C.

1184
01:04:35,320 --> 01:04:38,200
Speaker 2: Jackson though that's probably addition by subtraction. But what do

1185
01:04:38,200 --> 01:04:41,400
Speaker 2: you think of this one with this kind of banged

1186
01:04:41,480 --> 01:04:45,600
Speaker 2: up Charger team going up against the the Ats, Darlings,

1187
01:04:45,600 --> 01:04:46,400
Speaker 2: the Falcons.

1188
01:04:47,040 --> 01:04:49,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm thinking about back the Chargers. I'm curious to

1189
01:04:49,320 --> 01:04:51,800
Speaker 3: your thoughts on this because number one, you know when

1190
01:04:51,840 --> 01:04:53,920
Speaker 3: you first you first look at the Chargers and you say,

1191
01:04:54,440 --> 01:04:57,840
Speaker 3: other the Runde's really bad. The Falcons, That's what they do.

1192
01:04:57,880 --> 01:05:00,080
Speaker 3: They're going to control the clock here. The Chargers are

1193
01:05:00,120 --> 01:05:02,400
Speaker 3: allowing five point seven yards per carry on the year.

1194
01:05:03,120 --> 01:05:04,800
Speaker 3: But then I dug into a little bit because when

1195
01:05:04,840 --> 01:05:07,400
Speaker 3: I watched them, like, well, the run defense looks better,

1196
01:05:08,240 --> 01:05:10,160
Speaker 3: and you know, they added some pieces in the front seven.

1197
01:05:10,680 --> 01:05:12,720
Speaker 3: So I went and looked they've given up runs. If

1198
01:05:12,760 --> 01:05:15,760
Speaker 3: you get out the most runs of forty plus yards

1199
01:05:15,760 --> 01:05:18,080
Speaker 3: this year, they give up like a seventy four yard

1200
01:05:18,120 --> 01:05:22,320
Speaker 3: er to Kenneth Walker twenty, but they also give up

1201
01:05:22,360 --> 01:05:24,960
Speaker 3: a fifty two yarder another fifty yarder, a seventy five

1202
01:05:25,080 --> 01:05:28,800
Speaker 3: yarder to Pierce, and then another forty one yarder. So

1203
01:05:28,840 --> 01:05:32,480
Speaker 3: they've allowed five carries who over forty yards. If you

1204
01:05:32,560 --> 01:05:35,680
Speaker 3: remove those, and I'll explain why I'm going to do

1205
01:05:35,680 --> 01:05:38,360
Speaker 3: that here, they've only on one hundred and sixty four carries,

1206
01:05:38,760 --> 01:05:41,680
Speaker 3: they've only allowed four yards per carry, which would be

1207
01:05:41,880 --> 01:05:45,120
Speaker 3: third in the NFL. That's why overall, when you don't

1208
01:05:45,200 --> 01:05:49,000
Speaker 3: even you don't remove those, they're ninth and success rate

1209
01:05:49,120 --> 01:05:52,280
Speaker 3: against the run. So what does that mean. Well, yeah,

1210
01:05:52,280 --> 01:05:55,680
Speaker 3: it's bad to give up eighty yard runs obviously, but

1211
01:05:55,720 --> 01:05:59,200
Speaker 3: they might hear you know, quarterall Pattison could go back to.

1212
01:06:00,000 --> 01:06:03,480
Speaker 3: But I was more concerned with, like Atlanta, controlling the

1213
01:06:03,480 --> 01:06:05,520
Speaker 3: clock and marching down the field. And I think the

1214
01:06:05,600 --> 01:06:07,880
Speaker 3: Chargers Rundy on a down to down basis is better

1215
01:06:07,920 --> 01:06:10,520
Speaker 3: than people think. And the other side, it's like Ajterrelto

1216
01:06:10,840 --> 01:06:14,640
Speaker 3: isn't practicing, you know, Casey Hayward's on ir The Falcons

1217
01:06:14,640 --> 01:06:18,400
Speaker 3: get zero pressure whatsoever. So the issues on the offensive

1218
01:06:18,440 --> 01:06:21,600
Speaker 3: line for the Chargers because of injuries aren't going to

1219
01:06:21,640 --> 01:06:24,080
Speaker 3: rear the rugby heads here. They should also be able

1220
01:06:24,120 --> 01:06:26,160
Speaker 3: to run well with that clerk against a bad Rundy,

1221
01:06:26,600 --> 01:06:31,040
Speaker 3: so Herbert's gonna have time to throw here. And I

1222
01:06:31,080 --> 01:06:34,040
Speaker 3: do think that the Chargers defense against the Rum will

1223
01:06:34,040 --> 01:06:37,600
Speaker 3: have more success than people think. So the question then

1224
01:06:37,640 --> 01:06:41,520
Speaker 3: becomes and the Herberts canund be throwing against a secondary

1225
01:06:41,560 --> 01:06:45,760
Speaker 3: that's probably missing multiple starters? Do I trust the wide

1226
01:06:45,760 --> 01:06:50,520
Speaker 3: receivers here off of a bye two in Palmer? What Carter?

1227
01:06:54,080 --> 01:06:56,640
Speaker 3: Do I trust this route? I'm leaning on you here

1228
01:06:56,680 --> 01:06:58,600
Speaker 3: to give me your thoughts on what you think of them.

1229
01:06:58,880 --> 01:07:02,400
Speaker 2: So I thought of it that the same thing, and

1230
01:07:03,160 --> 01:07:05,360
Speaker 2: I can make the line about three. I think the

1231
01:07:05,360 --> 01:07:08,520
Speaker 2: line is more or less correct, but I would lean

1232
01:07:08,600 --> 01:07:11,000
Speaker 2: charges because I do think it's similar to that spot

1233
01:07:11,040 --> 01:07:14,520
Speaker 2: where you back the Bengals against the Falcons, where you

1234
01:07:14,560 --> 01:07:17,840
Speaker 2: know this Falcons team is just it's an explosive quarterback.

1235
01:07:17,840 --> 01:07:19,240
Speaker 2: I know he's gonna be down to the weapons, but

1236
01:07:19,240 --> 01:07:21,560
Speaker 2: he still got echo wher. They're still gonna be able

1237
01:07:21,560 --> 01:07:24,200
Speaker 2: to run the ball. And I think it's just a

1238
01:07:24,200 --> 01:07:27,600
Speaker 2: spot where the Chargers can put up enough points here

1239
01:07:27,960 --> 01:07:31,200
Speaker 2: to you know, get more than just you know, okay,

1240
01:07:31,240 --> 01:07:33,240
Speaker 2: it's a field goal. But at the same time, and

1241
01:07:33,320 --> 01:07:35,840
Speaker 2: you told me this, it's like the Chargers always find

1242
01:07:35,840 --> 01:07:37,920
Speaker 2: a way to keep the opponent in it in the

1243
01:07:37,920 --> 01:07:40,320
Speaker 2: fourth quarter, and the Falcons for more or less, I've

1244
01:07:40,320 --> 01:07:41,920
Speaker 2: always found a way to kind of hang in there.

1245
01:07:41,960 --> 01:07:45,160
Speaker 2: So I mean at three, it's probably a pass for me,

1246
01:07:45,200 --> 01:07:47,200
Speaker 2: I think if it if it for some reason got

1247
01:07:47,200 --> 01:07:48,800
Speaker 2: down to two and a half, which I don't think

1248
01:07:48,800 --> 01:07:51,320
Speaker 2: it will, I wouldn't mind the charges. But I mean

1249
01:07:51,640 --> 01:07:54,720
Speaker 2: the key number is probably almost one or or one

1250
01:07:54,760 --> 01:07:59,800
Speaker 2: and a half with the charges, right, because yeah.

1251
01:07:58,560 --> 01:08:00,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think they'll have any any problem coming

1252
01:08:00,920 --> 01:08:03,440
Speaker 3: back from a depth from a deficit in this particular game.

1253
01:08:03,640 --> 01:08:06,720
Speaker 3: You give Herbert time with Eckler, you know, and he's

1254
01:08:06,720 --> 01:08:08,680
Speaker 3: had two weeks to work with these receivers too, which

1255
01:08:08,680 --> 01:08:11,400
Speaker 3: I think is important to get some timing off the buy.

1256
01:08:12,120 --> 01:08:15,200
Speaker 3: So yeah, maybe that's the look Falcons get down look

1257
01:08:15,240 --> 01:08:16,519
Speaker 3: for them live at like a pick.

1258
01:08:16,960 --> 01:08:19,519
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean the issue with Herbert this year has

1259
01:08:19,560 --> 01:08:22,479
Speaker 2: been he hasn't been throwing downfield the way we're used to,

1260
01:08:22,720 --> 01:08:26,240
Speaker 2: so with time you would think he would. Although now

1261
01:08:26,439 --> 01:08:29,920
Speaker 2: the question is, well, without Mike Williams, you know, what's

1262
01:08:29,960 --> 01:08:31,880
Speaker 2: the scheme going to be? Like, the Chargers should be

1263
01:08:31,920 --> 01:08:35,120
Speaker 2: able to outscore this Falcons team just on brute. You know,

1264
01:08:35,360 --> 01:08:38,559
Speaker 2: our offense is better than your defense, and there's less

1265
01:08:38,600 --> 01:08:41,840
Speaker 2: of a gap between your offense and our defense. Like

1266
01:08:41,880 --> 01:08:44,840
Speaker 2: that that should be enough here. But I just can't

1267
01:08:44,840 --> 01:08:48,000
Speaker 2: predict what Brandon Staley is doing. So like at three,

1268
01:08:48,040 --> 01:08:50,640
Speaker 2: I would honestly pass, but I wouldn't I wouldn't mind it,

1269
01:08:50,720 --> 01:08:54,040
Speaker 2: you know, maybe even maybe maybe even moneyline parlay with

1270
01:08:54,080 --> 01:08:55,680
Speaker 2: something else or something like that, just so you don't

1271
01:08:55,720 --> 01:08:56,240
Speaker 2: have to worry.

1272
01:08:56,040 --> 01:08:59,720
Speaker 3: About the Yeah, with the Brandon Chiefs and Chargers.

1273
01:09:00,120 --> 01:09:02,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, there you go, because because like you never want

1274
01:09:02,800 --> 01:09:05,760
Speaker 2: to have to cover three with Stalley. He's gonna fucking

1275
01:09:05,800 --> 01:09:08,120
Speaker 2: go for two and miss it. And is you know

1276
01:09:08,160 --> 01:09:08,960
Speaker 2: what's gonna happen now?

1277
01:09:09,200 --> 01:09:14,000
Speaker 3: She Chargers by fifty Yeah, and then my nemesis Titans

1278
01:09:14,000 --> 01:09:14,839
Speaker 3: beat the Chiefs.

1279
01:09:15,160 --> 01:09:20,000
Speaker 2: Right Yeah, on an over too, it's gonna be like

1280
01:09:20,400 --> 01:09:22,640
Speaker 2: twenty four to twenty three Titans.

1281
01:09:23,080 --> 01:09:25,160
Speaker 3: Oh, by the way, we didn't mention this is which

1282
01:09:25,200 --> 01:09:28,839
Speaker 3: is part of it too, is Tannehill might not updated status.

1283
01:09:28,840 --> 01:09:31,240
Speaker 3: We don't know, right, So that's obviously up the under

1284
01:09:31,360 --> 01:09:34,200
Speaker 3: and obviously with up the cheese, that's head just heads

1285
01:09:34,240 --> 01:09:36,479
Speaker 3: into the line like he could go. He might not.

1286
01:09:36,479 --> 01:09:38,360
Speaker 3: It could be Malik Wills again. If it is Milak

1287
01:09:38,400 --> 01:09:40,640
Speaker 3: Walls again, it's like probably gonna be similar to the

1288
01:09:40,640 --> 01:09:42,559
Speaker 3: same game plan. It's like we're gonna hand it to

1289
01:09:42,880 --> 01:09:44,680
Speaker 3: Derek Henry million times. But I just wanted to bring

1290
01:09:44,680 --> 01:09:46,320
Speaker 3: that up. I forgot to mention that during the game.

1291
01:09:46,760 --> 01:09:50,719
Speaker 2: All right. That is going to wrap it up for

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01:09:51,640 --> 01:09:57,240
Speaker 2: the week number nine Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel.

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01:09:57,560 --> 01:09:59,120
Speaker 2: If you want to check out more of our great

1294
01:09:59,160 --> 01:10:03,040
Speaker 2: betting content, sure to check out actionnetwork dot com and

1295
01:10:03,080 --> 01:10:06,000
Speaker 2: you can find Stucky in the Action Network app at

1296
01:10:06,040 --> 01:10:08,840
Speaker 2: Stucky Too. You can find me at Chris Raybond. You

1297
01:10:08,840 --> 01:10:12,559
Speaker 2: can find us on Twitter at those same handles. Until

1298
01:10:12,600 --> 01:10:16,080
Speaker 2: next time, let's get thish moneys go right,