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Speaker 1: More memories are made when you're there for live NFL

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Speaker 1: the best view of those pivotal plays and if your

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Speaker 1: plans change. Ticketmaster gives you more flexibility to sell or

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Speaker 1: game day a breeze. You can even customize your Ticketmaster

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Speaker 1: app to rep your team's colors. Find tickets today at

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Speaker 1: ticketmaster dot com.

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Speaker 2: Slash NFL The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 4: All right here we go from there throwing into.

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Speaker 5: I'm sitting it to catch town.

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Speaker 6: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 6: go to win.

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Speaker 1: That's in.

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Speaker 5: Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 6: I like to make money, all right.

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Speaker 4: This is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 3: You want to pass.

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Speaker 5: And we are.

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Speaker 6: What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 3: Welcome to The Action Network Podcast presented by bet MGM.

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Speaker 3: I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and this is your NFL

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Speaker 3: Week four betting preview. We will talk about our favorite sides, totals, teasers,

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Speaker 3: survivor picks, underdog money lines, and of course we'll crack

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Speaker 3: open our weekly Sunday six pack of against the spread

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Speaker 3: bets with the help of my co host, the Prime

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Speaker 3: Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stuck. A great week for you

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Speaker 3: last week, Stuck. Congratulations, how you doing?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, you as well? We crushed it.

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Speaker 7: We had I think we both hit our teasers totals

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Speaker 7: and then one on our side, so he has a

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Speaker 7: hell of a week for the pop. That's all we want.

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Speaker 7: But who cares it was last week. Let's find some

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Speaker 7: winners for this week and keep it rolling.

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Speaker 3: And for those asking, yes, these episodes will always be

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Speaker 3: available in full on the Action Network YouTube page, posting

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Speaker 3: every Thursday afternoon, so check that out if you prefer video,

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Speaker 3: and be sure to give us a like and subscribe

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Speaker 3: on YouTube as well. Let's get right into this week

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Speaker 3: with our Thursday Night football preview.

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Speaker 2: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 2: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 6: For this Thursday.

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Speaker 3: In Week four, we have the Packers hosting the Detroit Lions.

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Speaker 3: The Packers are one and a half point underdogs at

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Speaker 3: bet MGM at home, and the total is forty yet six.

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Speaker 3: Still waiting on some injury news for the Packers as

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Speaker 3: we record this, But what are your thoughts on this

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Speaker 3: game stuff?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, we're recording this around like two point fifty Eastern

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Speaker 7: on Wednesday, just to be transparent with everybody. And so

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Speaker 7: we don't have really great even with a Thursday night game,

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Speaker 7: we don't have full a full lens into the injury report.

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Speaker 7: Both teams are dealing with a lot of injuries. The

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Speaker 7: Packers you have, you know, Christian Watson, Aaron Jones, two

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Speaker 7: of your most important offensive linemen. And then on the

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Speaker 7: defensive side of the ball, they also have injuries and

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Speaker 7: like the secondary could be really shorthanded. We'll see, Yeah,

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Speaker 7: there's they could be down a couple of corners. And

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Speaker 7: it's a very weird situation with the Packers because a

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Speaker 7: lot all those guys didn't play last week and they

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Speaker 7: were out of a practice squad guy on the playing

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Speaker 7: corner for about twenty five snaps the you know, but

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Speaker 7: they so they had a short week for a division game.

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Speaker 7: Maybe they were just being cautious. Some of these guys,

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Speaker 7: I know that Doves came out and said we will

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Speaker 7: have Jones back this week, so there's some optimism there,

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Speaker 7: but we don't know. Historically, the Packers have been really

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Speaker 7: conservative when it comes to injuries, but then if you

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Speaker 7: look at the schedule, it's like, yes, this game is

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Speaker 7: important for the division for playoffs, but then they don't

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Speaker 7: play until next Monday night, and then after that they

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Speaker 7: have a buy So like, if you're like, hey, we're

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Speaker 7: in the shitty division, let's just be really cautious to

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Speaker 7: get everyone extremely healthy, maybe they take a super conscious part.

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Speaker 7: I don't know if these teams are fully healthy. I

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Speaker 7: actually make the Packers a slight favorite, so would like

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Speaker 7: them here catching points. I think I'm just gonna wait

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Speaker 7: on the injury report, even if there's a couple of

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Speaker 7: Packers guys out and the Lions looks like they were

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Speaker 7: getting better news and expected with a couple of their guys,

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Speaker 7: maybe Decker and Montgomery and company. Maybe this line creeps

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Speaker 7: out to two and a half, and then I think

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Speaker 7: I'm gonna tease the Packers. We'll talk about some potential

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Speaker 7: teaser pieces that you compare with the Packers on Sunday,

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Speaker 7: but it's I mentioned this on our Happy Hour show.

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Speaker 7: Getting to and from teasing a dog up through a

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Speaker 7: field goal and touchdown is ideal. But I think over time,

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Speaker 7: getting up over eight from two and a half is

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Speaker 7: going to become even more valuable than going from one

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Speaker 7: and a half to seven and a half because of

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Speaker 7: what the Packers did last week, right, so you would

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Speaker 7: expect more teams to do that after the Packers won

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Speaker 7: the game doing it, And the Packers already did it,

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Speaker 7: so you would do that again. So they're down fourteen late.

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Speaker 7: You know, historically, if you had a seven and a half,

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Speaker 7: you know a dog getting seven and a half in

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Speaker 7: a teaser, you scored a meeting less touchdown at the end,

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Speaker 7: you're kicking the extra point, you're covering your teaser. Now

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Speaker 7: you're gonna see more teams go for two.

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Speaker 5: You don't get it.

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Speaker 7: You're gonna see more results fall eight and six than seven.

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Speaker 7: So I'm gonna see if I can get the Packers

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Speaker 7: at two and a half and tease them up. I

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Speaker 7: probably still we will do it at one and a

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Speaker 7: half depending on the injury report. But too much uncertainty

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Speaker 7: right now. Unless I love something on a Thursday night,

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Speaker 7: it's not something I want to get involved with list.

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Speaker 7: This is an intriguing matchup.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I lean Packers as well. You know.

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Speaker 3: The interesting thing is, you know matt Lefloor is now

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Speaker 3: sixteen and four against the spread, is an underdog thirteen

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Speaker 3: and seven straight up, three and zer against the president

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Speaker 3: underdog this year. So this Packer team, and you pointed

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Speaker 3: this out in the offseason, has been a little bit

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Speaker 3: underrated by the market. So yeah, if they're if they're healthy,

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Speaker 3: I would lean that way, but probably staying away. Just

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Speaker 3: Thursday night not my favorite time to bet. I four

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Speaker 3: aid into Thursday night last week, and of course I've

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Speaker 3: whiffed on a prop one of the few, one of

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Speaker 3: the few whiffs I've had with Jayve and Hyatt.

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Speaker 6: We didn't even get a target. I don't even Yeah,

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Speaker 6: he didn't even get a target.

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Speaker 5: So as I almost almost tail Joe, Yeah.

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Speaker 6: Thank god you didn't.

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Speaker 3: Hopefully why will they throw near him? I don't know,

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Speaker 3: And he actually played more than that thought. I just

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Speaker 3: think they didn't have time, which kind of makes sense.

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Speaker 6: They're not you.

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Speaker 3: They should use him underneath a little more though, but

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Speaker 3: you know they're just using him as a deep threat.

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Speaker 3: So but we digress. Yeah, So Thursday night. You know

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Speaker 3: I think, yeah packers or packers are nothing or tease

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Speaker 3: it up right yep, all right, and now it's time

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Speaker 3: for the week number four Sunday six.

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Speaker 2: Bet Thursday for action, Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: And we went four and two last week, so good

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Speaker 3: week for us. It's thirteen twelve for those new listeners.

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Speaker 3: We do two points for each of our first two bets,

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Speaker 3: a point for our third bet, a point for our

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Speaker 3: total which will do in the next segment, and if

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Speaker 3: you sweep, you get another point. So thirteen twelve. Me

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Speaker 3: stuck where you're going with your first pick.

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Speaker 7: For my first pick of the week four Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 7: I'm going with the Cleveland Browns minus two and a

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Speaker 7: half against my Baltimore Ravens. Before I go into the

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Speaker 7: reasons why I like this bet, I will preface it

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Speaker 7: by saying I actually the way I protested is I

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Speaker 7: moneyline parlayd Cleveland with the forty nine ers. It's about

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Speaker 7: even money points should be at a premium in this game.

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Speaker 7: Low total could see things getting weird, but you also

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Speaker 7: have two smart coaches, like someone can go for two

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Speaker 7: at the end. I just prefer the money line. Feel

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Speaker 7: safer there. I've also been haunted by this game. If

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Speaker 7: you've that I've been at but for the past two years.

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Speaker 5: If you are a.

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Speaker 7: Loyal listener this podcast. Last year I had the Ravens

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Speaker 7: teased up to plus eight and a half. They lost

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Speaker 7: by ten. Tucker had two field goals blocked in like

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Speaker 7: a snow game. A couple years before that, I had

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Speaker 7: minus two and a half day one by two after

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Speaker 7: they were up.

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Speaker 5: By like eighteen and Lamar Jacks got heard. It was

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Speaker 5: a mess.

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Speaker 7: Whatever, So I have money line here parlayd with the

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Speaker 7: forty nine ers about even money. Still like it a

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Speaker 7: minus two and a half for what it's worth. I

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Speaker 7: like to spend for two reasons. This is the third

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Speaker 7: time taking the Browns on the show, and they should

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Speaker 7: be undefeated if not for two defensive touchdowns against the Steelers.

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Speaker 7: The reason I've been backing them consistently is I've said

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Speaker 7: at the beginning of the year this defense. I'm convinced

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Speaker 7: now it's the best in the league. I've seen what

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Speaker 7: I've needed to see. This is the best d in

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Speaker 7: the league. Jim Schwartz gonna fix a lot of that

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Speaker 7: low hanging fruit. They address the run. They addressed the

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Speaker 7: run defensive issues by bulking up in the interior. Ad

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Speaker 7: Wan Thornhill, you already have a really good group of

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Speaker 7: corners and it looks like Newsom practice today as well.

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Speaker 7: Very healthy team. Overall, this defense is playing with a

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Speaker 7: confidence and swagger that I've only seen from like the

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Speaker 7: most dominant defenses over the past twenty years. Miles Garrett's

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Speaker 7: playing at a defensive Player of the Year level. He

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Speaker 7: is terrorizing, terrorizing opposing quarterbacks. Just to demonstrate how dominant

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Speaker 7: this Browns defense has been, their success rate allowed on

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Speaker 7: the season is hovering around twenty five percent. To explain

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Speaker 7: how crazy that is. The second lowest success rate allowed

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Speaker 7: the Bills at thirty eight percent. Last year, the team

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Speaker 7: that led the NFL led the NFL in success rate

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Speaker 7: was at about thirty nine and a half percent. The

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Speaker 7: Browns are at twenty five percent. One drive out of

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Speaker 7: thirty nine have gotten into the red zone. That was

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Speaker 7: a miracle catch on a fourth and four. And guess what,

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Speaker 7: the team didn't even score because Miles Garrett sack Tannehill

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Speaker 7: and the clock ran out in the half. At just

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Speaker 7: this defense is playing another level I don't think the

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Speaker 7: market is properly accounting for how dominant they are. And

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Speaker 7: I also don't think that the market is properly accounting

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Speaker 7: for how banged up this Ravens team is. You know,

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Speaker 7: even today, you know Linder Bowman Stanley practiced, which is

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Speaker 7: a good sign. Marcus Williams actually was out there in

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Speaker 7: practice as well, but Kyle Hamilton wasn't. Now, Marlon Humphrey

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Speaker 7: still isn't. You've already lost a couple other guys in

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Speaker 7: the secondary a Djobo O Way, Oh, Beckham wasn't practice today,

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Speaker 7: Justice Hill, You've already I mean, I could go on

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Speaker 7: and on with the amount of injuries. This team has

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Speaker 7: been down seven eight key starters and a couple key backups.

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Speaker 7: It's just not the same team. They were over valued

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Speaker 7: last week when I faded them. I just thought the

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Speaker 7: markets just I don't think is totally accounting for all

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Speaker 7: the injuries Raids at Yes, they start off to and

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Speaker 7: oh but they played a gimp in Joe Burrow, and

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Speaker 7: then you know a rookie quarterback making his first start

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Speaker 7: on the road with an offensive line that was put

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Speaker 7: together that week in a complex offense, so they really

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Speaker 7: benefited there. I think that the Browns win this game

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Speaker 7: on the backs of their defense. And there is no

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Speaker 7: Nick Chubb, but you can attack this Ravens bagged up

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Speaker 7: secondary downfield. That's exactly what the Browns did last week

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Speaker 7: against Tennessee. Tennessee really good run, Dye, Raven's been good

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Speaker 7: against the run. They're gonna they attack down field. They're

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Speaker 7: gonna do that here, and I think they're gonna have

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Speaker 7: enough success. I love what I saw from Watson last week.

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Speaker 7: It was like the first game where you said, wow,

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Speaker 7: I think it was twenty seven of thirty three for

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Speaker 7: close to three hundred yards, pair of touchdowns, no interceptions.

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Speaker 7: I think the Browns win this game on the backs

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Speaker 7: of their defense, which for my money right now pinion

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Speaker 7: could change fast in the league. Too many injuries for

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Speaker 7: the Ravens and we're rolling with the Browns against my

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Speaker 7: Ravens again.

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Speaker 5: Sadly.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll have more on this game. I agree with you.

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Speaker 3: This Brown's defense is legit. So I'll table that.

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Speaker 7: I did one of that one little nugget Lamar Jackson,

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Speaker 7: and he has a bunch of receivers out now backs out.

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Speaker 7: He's thirty second of thirty four quarterbacks in quarterback grating

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Speaker 7: went under pressure minimum ten dropbacks. He's been off under pressure.

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Speaker 7: I could see a couple fumbles here force mistakes, which

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Speaker 7: in a game like this is going to make all

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Speaker 7: the difference.

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Speaker 3: My first pick the second overall of the week for

248
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Speaker 3: Sunday six pack, And after much shuffling and debate, because

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Speaker 3: a lot, as we recorded this just for full transparency,

250
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Speaker 3: a lot is going on injury wise, So let's pull

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Speaker 3: a pinch number one and go with the Rams at

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Speaker 3: plus one at the Indianapolis Colts. In this game, I

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Speaker 3: have it pretty much a coin flip game, but I

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Speaker 3: have the Rams with better quarterback play. That is the

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Speaker 3: difference in this one. Because Richardson and Minshew both of

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Speaker 3: them under six yards in attempt. Looks like Richardson's gonna play,

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Speaker 3: which probably is a slight downgrade for the Colts, but

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Speaker 3: both of them under six yards in attempt this year,

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Speaker 3: Stafford is still up above seven. He leads the NFL

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Speaker 3: and big time throws according to PFF with ten. Minshew

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Speaker 3: had two, Richardson still doesn't have one. And I think

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Speaker 3: LA especially last week, didn't quite hit its potential. They

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Speaker 3: scored fewer points than I think they should have. I

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Speaker 3: think they've gotten. I don't want to call it luck

265
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Speaker 3: because I think it was, you know, Sean McVay just uncharacteristically,

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Speaker 3: I think called a bad game on Monday Night. But overall,

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Speaker 3: the Rams are out gaining their opponents by eighty three

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Speaker 3: yards a game and Indianapolis has been out gained in

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Speaker 3: every game by four and they're being out gained by

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Speaker 3: forty five yards a game.

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Speaker 5: On average.

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Speaker 3: LA is third in the league and first downs eighth

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Speaker 3: and first downs allowed. On defense, they have a seventy

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Speaker 3: to fifty three first down edge. Well, the Colts have

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Speaker 3: fifty six first downs and have given up sixty four.

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Speaker 3: So really what it's come down to for LA is

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Speaker 3: they've turned They have a minus street turnover margin. They

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Speaker 3: have four turnover turnovers, and if they could clean that up,

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Speaker 3: which I think it will even out in this game

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Speaker 3: because the Coats they have a plus two, but they

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Speaker 3: haven't turned the ball over since Week one. I think

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Speaker 3: with richardson back especially, I think that I don't think

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Speaker 3: that's going to continue. But LA has been better in

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Speaker 3: yards to play on offense five point three to four

285
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Speaker 3: point six. On defense, they're about equal, but LA has

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Speaker 3: had a tougher schedule. And this is the biggest differential

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Speaker 3: in our luck rankings, which you know those have been

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Speaker 3: when you attack these, you know fifteen plus differentials, which

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Speaker 3: LA is twenty six and Indianapolis is the fifth luckiest.

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Speaker 3: That's a twenty one a differential of twenty one. Those

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00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:03,040
Speaker 3: have been over sixty percent historically. So that got that

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Speaker 3: kind of underscoring what I'm saying about LA. Just I

293
00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:10,200
Speaker 3: think they could play better. And Sean McVay off of

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Speaker 3: loss and again did not call a good game Monday.

295
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Speaker 3: And now I mean that getting sacked first and goal

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Speaker 3: with the two got sacked seems seemed like he just

297
00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:20,400
Speaker 3: didn't run the ball in spots. Stafford also just couldn't

298
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Speaker 3: hit Karen Williams for some reason. You were just overthrowing

299
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Speaker 3: every running back kid also be an issue.

300
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Speaker 6: Yeah it was.

301
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Speaker 3: It was just a bad game, like overall from McVeigh.

302
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Speaker 3: But like things, I think can clean up. And even

303
00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:36,920
Speaker 3: with that game, you know, they lose by three to

304
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Speaker 3: the Bengals, and you know, again the Rams overall have

305
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Speaker 3: been the better team than the Colts, even though the

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Speaker 3: Coats have two wins and the Rams have won.

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Speaker 6: But McVeigh for loss.

308
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Speaker 3: This is where he does get things done twenty one

309
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Speaker 3: to twelve and three sixty four percent in his career

310
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Speaker 3: on the road eleven and five sixty nine percent, and

311
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Speaker 3: as a dog off loss nine to two, covering by

312
00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,400
Speaker 3: six point eight points per game on average. So give

313
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Speaker 3: me the better quarterback and overall what I think is

314
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Speaker 3: the better team. Even though I have upgraded the Colts,

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Speaker 3: the Rams can get it done here with Stafford Nakula

316
00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:19,960
Speaker 3: at well, Aaron Donald.

317
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Speaker 5: And those guys.

318
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Speaker 7: Yeah, I would lean Rams here. Have upgraded the Colts,

319
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Speaker 7: Minshew is an upgrade as of now. Say they rolled

320
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Speaker 7: Richardson out, This was gonna be my favorite total. I

321
00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:33,520
Speaker 7: was gonna bet the over here and still kind of

322
00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:37,520
Speaker 7: lean the over fast track against two vulnerable defenses. But

323
00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:41,960
Speaker 7: Richardson isn't throwing the ball downfield at all. Yeah, everything

324
00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:45,880
Speaker 7: is short. The Rams can almost employ the game plan

325
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Speaker 7: they did last week. Nome Burrow can't really throw the

326
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Speaker 7: ball downfield, right, They're just gonna keep everything in front

327
00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:54,680
Speaker 7: of them, right, run a lot of zones, keep and

328
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Speaker 7: you keep an eye on Richardson in the run game,

329
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Speaker 7: and the Colts are gonna have to go efficiently up

330
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Speaker 7: and down the field. And that's just gonna make this

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Speaker 7: like when the Colts have the ball, there's gonna be

332
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Speaker 7: a lot of clock coming off and they're just not

333
00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:08,960
Speaker 7: gonna take shots because you after you can take shots

334
00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:12,239
Speaker 7: against this ram secondary and have success. But I just

335
00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,280
Speaker 7: don't Noah Fridardson is capable of doing that. Yeah, I

336
00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:19,480
Speaker 7: don't hate this pick at all. For my second pick

337
00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:23,080
Speaker 7: and the third overall of the week four Sunday six pack,

338
00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:26,600
Speaker 7: I'm going with the Buffalo Bills minus two and a half.

339
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Speaker 7: This is good up to minus one twenty against the

340
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:34,040
Speaker 7: Miami Dolphins. It's gonna make our producer Matt Mitchell extremely

341
00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:36,879
Speaker 7: happy going back to the Bills at home. Treated me

342
00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:38,040
Speaker 7: well against the Raiders.

343
00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:45,360
Speaker 6: The Bills make me want something.

344
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,640
Speaker 7: Look, it's scary fading this Dolphins team. Their offense went off,

345
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Speaker 7: plus they scored seventy points. Here's a tidbot for you.

346
00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:57,000
Speaker 7: Over the last fifty seasons, after scoring seventy or more points,

347
00:17:57,040 --> 00:17:58,880
Speaker 7: teams are zero to one against the spread. How about

348
00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:01,920
Speaker 7: that sample size. It's only happened one other time over

349
00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:04,160
Speaker 7: the past fifty years. I can tell you, though, When

350
00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:06,840
Speaker 7: a team looks that good, right, huge bought win where

351
00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:09,520
Speaker 7: they win seventy to twenty over the past ten years,

352
00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:12,880
Speaker 7: undefeated straight up and against the spread. Teams after three

353
00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,600
Speaker 7: weeks own four against the spread of week four seven

354
00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:17,800
Speaker 7: side of four. But the reason I bring it up

355
00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:20,639
Speaker 7: is Miami has three of those four losses. They've started

356
00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:22,760
Speaker 7: three to zero against the spread, straight up and against

357
00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,840
Speaker 7: the spread three times and lost that three of those

358
00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:28,159
Speaker 7: four times. One of them was last year. You know,

359
00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:29,919
Speaker 7: they beat the Bills in that weird gain. Then they

360
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:32,520
Speaker 7: went on the road and lost in Cincinnati by two touchdowns.

361
00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:36,399
Speaker 7: But look, Miami's great legit Super Bowl contender. What they

362
00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:39,000
Speaker 7: did last week is amazing when you consider Waddle and

363
00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:43,920
Speaker 7: Armstead weren't even playing. Just an amazing performance. But let's

364
00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:46,959
Speaker 7: slower roll a little bit. There's still some issues with

365
00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:52,040
Speaker 7: this Dolphins team. One they have they dominated two of

366
00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:54,199
Speaker 7: the worst defenses in the league this year. The Chargers

367
00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:58,120
Speaker 7: and the Broncos have been horrible. For reference, Sam Howe

368
00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:01,200
Speaker 7: put up thirty two points to the final three quarters

369
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:06,359
Speaker 7: against the Broncos. He was blanked shut down. Did nothing

370
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,879
Speaker 7: against his Bill's defense last year. Last week, when the

371
00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,720
Speaker 7: Dolphins played the Patriots, they were slowed down a bit

372
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,680
Speaker 7: Bill went three high safety said we're not gonna give

373
00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:19,240
Speaker 7: you any explosive plays. McDermott great defensive schemer.

374
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:19,639
Speaker 5: He saw that.

375
00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:21,960
Speaker 7: He's gonna mirror some of that, I assume. But here's

376
00:19:21,960 --> 00:19:24,639
Speaker 7: the thing. The Bill's also can get pressure. They're one

377
00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:26,920
Speaker 7: of four teams with a thirty percent plus pressure in

378
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:28,600
Speaker 7: the air and they have a bottom three blitz rate.

379
00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:31,040
Speaker 7: Can't really blitz this Miami offense. So they're able to

380
00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:34,400
Speaker 7: get pressure without blitzing two smart safeties on the back end.

381
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:36,679
Speaker 7: Mcdermot's gonna have a good game plan here. And if

382
00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:41,679
Speaker 7: you judge based on history, McDermott has absolutely owned owned

383
00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:47,240
Speaker 7: to a fifty nine quarterback rating in three starts, one touchdown,

384
00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 7: four interceptions his next So that's the second worst against

385
00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:55,520
Speaker 7: any one opponent. Fifty nine quarterback grating the next highest.

386
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:59,120
Speaker 7: The next worst is eighty. So McDermott has really been

387
00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 7: able to f figure out this McDaniel offense. And look

388
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:05,040
Speaker 7: what McDaniel's done adjusting to the league with these different

389
00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:06,400
Speaker 7: revolutionary motions.

390
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:08,399
Speaker 5: There's no tape on it. There's three games.

391
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 7: The Bills have seen some of this, so you know

392
00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:12,040
Speaker 7: there's going to be a counter back and a punch

393
00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:14,600
Speaker 7: back and then that's the chess game in the NFL.

394
00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:17,320
Speaker 7: But what this boils down to me is these are

395
00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:20,639
Speaker 7: two amazing offenses. Everyone's talking about Miami last week, and

396
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:22,920
Speaker 7: rightfully so, but the Bills have beat the last two

397
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:27,680
Speaker 7: opponents seventy five to thirteen. I think they've dominated. The

398
00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:29,920
Speaker 7: offenses looked great the past weeks, and the most important

399
00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 7: thing is the offensive line. Last week was spectacular, that's

400
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:36,320
Speaker 7: what you and that was against one of the best

401
00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:40,440
Speaker 7: defensive fronts in the NFL. All graded out very well

402
00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:42,480
Speaker 7: up front, and that's kind of what if you're a

403
00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:44,160
Speaker 7: Bills fan you want to see because that's the only

404
00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:46,640
Speaker 7: thing that I think can really hold back this offense.

405
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:49,760
Speaker 7: So when I look at this game, I think that

406
00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:51,199
Speaker 7: we can get you know, two and a half up

407
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:53,199
Speaker 7: to minus one twenty because of what the Dolphins did

408
00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:58,000
Speaker 7: last week. Two elite offenses but only one good defense.

409
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,520
Speaker 7: Bills have an elite defense second EPA for place second

410
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 7: success rate. Granted this is a big gap, but right

411
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 7: behind the Browns. If you look at the Dolphins, you

412
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 7: know their twentieth twenty first not a great defense. I

413
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:12,920
Speaker 7: believe the Dolphins are dead last in success rate allowed

414
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:15,920
Speaker 7: this year, So so I just think the Bills at

415
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:18,359
Speaker 7: home are gonna be able to get one or two

416
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,200
Speaker 7: more key stops and also something to keep in mind

417
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 7: that could actually make a difference. It again that I

418
00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,399
Speaker 7: think will be competitive and can't wait for this one. Dolphins,

419
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 7: you go by DVA thirty second on special teams. Their

420
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 7: special teams is a mess last year. Bottom five was

421
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 7: a mess last year, Bill's number one in the league.

422
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 7: Bills adventage special teams, defense to elite offenses, getting the

423
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:44,040
Speaker 7: Bills at home under a field goal against anyone. I'll

424
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 7: take the Bills in under a field goal here all day.

425
00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:48,120
Speaker 6: I don't really have a good feel for this one.

426
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 3: Just I have an inside of three, so I guess

427
00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 3: I would lean Miami, but I take your point. I

428
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:54,480
Speaker 3: think you know it's kind of a cell high for

429
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 3: Miami spot and I can get behind.

430
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:57,720
Speaker 6: I can see where.

431
00:21:57,600 --> 00:21:59,400
Speaker 5: You're coming from.

432
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 3: For or my second pick of the week, four Sunday

433
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 3: six pack and the fourth overall, I'm going with the

434
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay Bucks plus three and a half at the

435
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 3: New Orleans Saints. And this just comes down to Jameis

436
00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:22,159
Speaker 3: Winston for me, and the fact that the Bucks I

437
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 3: think we're a little underrated heading into the year. But

438
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 3: they've been able to hold up on defense. They've given

439
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 3: up you know, seventeen twice and then you know, Eagles.

440
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 5: Put twenty five on them.

441
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:38,679
Speaker 3: But Jamis for an offense that was already not really

442
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 3: living up to its potential and not really playing all

443
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:44,399
Speaker 3: that well. You know, the Saints didn't haven't scored more

444
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,719
Speaker 3: than twenty points in a game. Now you've got Jamis

445
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 3: in there. The kickers a little bit shaky as well,

446
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:53,640
Speaker 3: So I think there isn't as big of a gap

447
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 3: year as you know, you might think you might have

448
00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:58,720
Speaker 3: thought coming into the year. But Jamis is just eight

449
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 3: nineteen and one thirty percent against the spread as a favorite,

450
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:04,639
Speaker 3: And if you can get over a field goal, which

451
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:07,159
Speaker 3: hopefully by the time you guys are listening to this

452
00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 3: line is still there over a field goal, like two to.

453
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:11,639
Speaker 5: Nine against the spread.

454
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 3: But either way, I think this Bucks team can keep

455
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 3: it close. You know, they the Eagles, that was a

456
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 3: tough matchup for him, But the Saints team has been

457
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 3: playing everyone close.

458
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 6: They went one point win against the Titans, they got.

459
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,959
Speaker 3: A three point win against the Panthers, and they get

460
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:31,439
Speaker 3: a one point loss to the Green Bay Packers. So

461
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 3: this Bucks team has been feisty enough that I trust

462
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 3: them to get it done here against Jamis and you

463
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 3: know game Is.

464
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,199
Speaker 6: I mean, we haven't seen him play a ton with

465
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 6: the Saints.

466
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:44,399
Speaker 3: I don't think he's that same guy that's you know,

467
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 3: throwing you know, thirty interceptions and thirty touchdowns, and were

468
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 3: gonna be a little more conservative, and they do get

469
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:52,680
Speaker 3: Kamara back, but the Bucks front has always been good

470
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:56,159
Speaker 3: against Kamara, that is one thing. So I just trust

471
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 3: this Bucks defense to keep it close and what should

472
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:00,400
Speaker 3: be a low score game.

473
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 7: We talked about this for years. Anytime you could fade

474
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 7: Jamis as a favorite. Even if he's more conservative now,

475
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,360
Speaker 7: he still can make that key turnover at any point

476
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,640
Speaker 7: in the game. I also don't think that the Saints front, look,

477
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 7: Cam Jordan has played better than I thought he would

478
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 7: this year, But this Saint's front, especially in the interior,

479
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 7: it's not up front that's gonna consistently generate just a

480
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 7: ton of pressure. The Saints are really good fundamental sound defense,

481
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 7: but they're not like that habit causing front. So I

482
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 7: think Baker can keep up here, and yeah, have no

483
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:35,199
Speaker 7: issues fading jamis.

484
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:36,920
Speaker 5: All right.

485
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:41,119
Speaker 7: For my third pick and the fifth overall of the

486
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 7: week four Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Jacksonville

487
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 7: Jaguars minus three in their home away from home over

488
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:50,639
Speaker 7: in London. I hate that I have to do this.

489
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 7: By the way, I have three favorites.

490
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 5: That's this.

491
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 6: This is first.

492
00:24:56,280 --> 00:25:02,120
Speaker 7: Ye So look, this line before the season started would

493
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 7: have been I think four and a half five. Jacksonville's

494
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 7: been extremely disappointed. They've lost to and really lost to

495
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:10,679
Speaker 7: the Chiefs. Throw and they're up and said nothing. They

496
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 7: lost last week, got blown out by Uston in fairness,

497
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:16,960
Speaker 7: pretty fluky as far as the final score, like they

498
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:18,880
Speaker 7: outgained them. They had I don't know, seven more first

499
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 7: outs that you have the full back returning kicks for

500
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 7: a touchdown for the Texans, you have the blocks fuel

501
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 7: goal returned like. It was a pretty fluky game, so

502
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:30,200
Speaker 7: that score looked a bit more lopsided. Lawrence has looked off,

503
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 7: but that's something we've seen in the past, inconsistency from

504
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 7: Jember Lawrence. Like, so what it surprised me if becomes

505
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,680
Speaker 7: out of here and Shred's are pretty vulnerable Atlanta defense

506
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 7: that you know doesn't really get a ton of pressure

507
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:45,639
Speaker 7: off of the edge to take advantage of some of

508
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 7: the weaknesses that Atlanta's had there specifically have right tackle. No,

509
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 7: it wouldn't be shocked at all. But what this comes

510
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 7: down to is just the matchup. So and I like this.

511
00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 7: The situation is decent in that look was lost to

512
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:03,080
Speaker 7: in a row desperation mode going to London, which they're

513
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 7: extremely familiar with. Meanwhile, Atlanta off of a bad loss

514
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 7: against Detroit. They're you know, kind of their second game

515
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 7: on the road going overseas, but Atlanta hasn't looked great

516
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 7: to me. I thought that they would be much more

517
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 7: potent on offense. Some of the things that we talked

518
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 7: about we thought that they would do they're not, and

519
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 7: how they're using all their different chess pieces. They go

520
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 7: up to Detroit, don't do anything on offense. And then

521
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 7: if you look back their first two wins, they beat

522
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 7: the Green Bay by one, but green Bay's half their

523
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 7: teams out and then you know, you beat a rookie

524
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 7: quarterback who does not look.

525
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 5: Good that will. I mean that in week one you were.

526
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:42,120
Speaker 6: Down until like the second half in that game.

527
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 7: Yeah, so that that looks worse. So and What it

528
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:48,439
Speaker 7: comes down to is Desmond Redder is is just not

529
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 7: progressed at all. No one thought he was going to

530
00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 7: be great or even good, but we thought it would

531
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 7: be a little better. And it doesn't seem like the

532
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 7: It doesn't seem like the staff Arthur Smith, the offense

533
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 7: have trusts him to actually throw it down field. So

534
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 7: the playbook seems really limited. So this offense that was

535
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 7: already rush heavy is even more rush heavy and teams

536
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 7: are just loading the box. Well, guess what, Jacksonville, despite

537
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:15,920
Speaker 7: their slow start, they had no issues defending the run.

538
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 6: None.

539
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 7: They didn't last year. It's a defense by skiing. Todd

540
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 7: Bowles is like, we'll stop the run. And this year

541
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 7: I think we see Jacksonville is second in success rate,

542
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:32,400
Speaker 7: top three in success rate NEPA per rush, So there's

543
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,600
Speaker 7: a top three rush defense this year. Where they're not

544
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,359
Speaker 7: good is against the pass. We talked about this in

545
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:40,479
Speaker 7: the off season. They're not getting a ton of pressure

546
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 7: off the edge and their secondary isn't very good. They're

547
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:45,959
Speaker 7: twenty third in EPA per dropback. I don't think ru

548
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:50,119
Speaker 7: I don't think Desmon Rider could take advantage. So I

549
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:53,199
Speaker 7: think that I expect Lawrence have a better game. He

550
00:27:53,560 --> 00:27:56,440
Speaker 7: I'll trust the better quarterback here in the better matchup.

551
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 7: Because Atlanta Jacksonville can even bring another safety down, they

552
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:01,439
Speaker 7: can load boxing more, which is what teams are doing

553
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 7: against Atlanta. So yeah, I'm gonna buy low here. I

554
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 7: mean Desmond Ruder for example, just to show y'all bad

555
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 7: he's been. I mean, he's among thirty quarterbacks at least

556
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 7: one hundred plays this season, ritters twenty sixth in EPA

557
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 7: plus completion percentage over expectation composite. He's in the negative there,

558
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,119
Speaker 7: which isn't good. The only other four quarterbacks in the

559
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:27,359
Speaker 7: negative are Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Kenny Pickett, one legged

560
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:30,159
Speaker 7: Joe Burrow, who's actually dead last. So he has not

561
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:31,919
Speaker 7: been good. I don't think he could take advantage of

562
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 7: this Jacksonville secondary. I'm gonna have faith in this Jacksonville

563
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 7: team to bounce back. They've been a bit unlucky in

564
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 7: a number of categories. They're twenty nine percent on third

565
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 7: down that's like Zach wilson territory. Last year they were

566
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 7: in the top ten in that quarter. They're one of

567
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 7: six on fourth downs. Last year they were fifty three

568
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 7: percent late down success rates not of variance in those numbers,

569
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 7: especially over short sample sizes, so I expect them to

570
00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 7: have a positive regression bump in the short term.

571
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 5: I'm gonna buy Jacksonville low. It's not the most.

572
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:04,720
Speaker 7: I don't show a ton of value on it, but

573
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 7: I like the spot and I like the matchup because

574
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 7: Jacksonville strength on defense is against the run.

575
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Falcons if they get behind, and it's crazy

576
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 3: because they've actually won a couple of games where they've

577
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 3: been down in the second half, but you know, we

578
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 3: just don't have confidence in them really getting down now Jacksonville.

579
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 3: I feel like we were here every year with Jacksonville. Yeah,

580
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 3: but they're not like they got to get right at

581
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 3: some point and one thing is usually with a spot,

582
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 3: So I don't hate it. Yeah, I think like, yeah,

583
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 3: like my numbers probably is like two and a half.

584
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:39,320
Speaker 3: But you've been having success with these favorites, so hopefully

585
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 3: keep rolling. For my third pick and the sixth overall

586
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 3: the week for Sunday six pack. I felt a lot

587
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 3: better about this one about an hour.

588
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:53,959
Speaker 5: Ago, but nice preface before you get right.

589
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 3: No, so Houston plus three and already bet it, So

590
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 3: it's not like, you know, it is what I had

591
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:02,920
Speaker 3: this line, you know, closer to you know, a half

592
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 3: point point. You know, now looks like Houston's uh, other tackle,

593
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 3: Josh Jones is gonna be out too.

594
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 6: Now. He's been pretty bad.

595
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 3: He's ranked sixty first to sixty seven at PFF tackles.

596
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,320
Speaker 3: He's giving up nine pressures. So it's not a massive loss.

597
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 3: But like now you're talking about a replacement level tackle,

598
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 3: probably on the right side.

599
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 6: Fan has been playing well, he'll go to the left side.

600
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 6: But so it's not ideal.

601
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 3: But either way, I think this Houston team getting three

602
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 3: at home against Pittsburgh that you know, coming off two wins,

603
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 3: that they're fairly lucky to get both of them. You know,

604
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 3: the Cleveland game, they get two defensive touchdowns. The Raiders game,

605
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 3: Garoppolo might have been concussed for half of it. Josh

606
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 3: McDaniels was coaching like he was concussed. Very odd game,

607
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 3: but way a lot.

608
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 5: Of this, a lot of what Jimmy g was doing

609
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 5: if he was concussed.

610
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:54,479
Speaker 6: Yeah, no, seriously, it just he just didn't look right.

611
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 3: The thing for me here is Houston has the better quarterback,

612
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 3: but Kenny Pickett, first of all. Let me let me

613
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 3: prefers it by saying this, we know Stroud's gonna be

614
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 3: under presure against this Pittsburgh d.

615
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 6: That goes what I was saying.

616
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 3: Kay Pickett has been under pressure more than almost any

617
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 3: quarterback in the league. This Pittsburgh defense offensive line has

618
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 3: not been good, but Pickett has also been one of

619
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 3: the worst quarterbacks from a queen pocket. Stroud at least,

620
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 3: I think on the you know whatever, fifty sixty percent

621
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 3: of the time that he's clean. I think he can

622
00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 3: make more plays. And I think that's the difference in

623
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 3: this game and what should be a pretty low scoring game,

624
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 3: because while Pittsburgh's defense is better, houston offense has been

625
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 3: far and away better one point eight points per drive seventeens.

626
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 5: Pittsburgh is one point one thirtieth in.

627
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 3: Terms of scoring percentage, Houston's at twelve, Pittsburgh's thirty first,

628
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 3: and then really Houston, the red zone has been an issue.

629
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 3: They're dead lasting conversion percentage of twenty seven percent. That

630
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 3: tends to be volatile and regress, but Houston at least

631
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 3: they've had eleven red zone trips that's eighth most on offense.

632
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh is dead last in red zone trips. They've only

633
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 3: had three, So I do I am concerned obviously about

634
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 3: you know, the Texans offensive lines teams like they keep

635
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 3: getting more and more hurt. But you know, I thought

636
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 3: about that last week, and you know, it was a

637
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 3: concern last week, and they made it work against against Jacksonville.

638
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 3: So I don't expect a lot of points here, but

639
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:27,640
Speaker 3: I do think that the market. I don't think Pittsburgh

640
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 3: given the state of their offense. You know, no Deontay

641
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 3: Johnson for averaging three point two yards to carry, even

642
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 3: though they want to be a running team, and even

643
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 3: Javin Warren, even though he's looked better than Naji, he

644
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 3: hasn't really been able to get going on the ground either.

645
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 3: So it's it's really just gonna be an ugly matchup

646
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 3: of two offenses that aren't gonna be able to do much.

647
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:50,880
Speaker 3: But I think the difference in the game is that

648
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 3: when Stroud gets timed, I think that he's gonna be

649
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:57,480
Speaker 3: able to make plays to Dell, to Nico Collins, and

650
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 3: I think Pickett is it's gonna be a lot tougher

651
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 3: for him to make plays. And also Houston has gotten

652
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:07,960
Speaker 3: no running game and their offense has still been okay. Well,

653
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh's been one of the worst teams in the league

654
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 3: against the run, so Houston could manage, you know, to

655
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 3: to do it that way in a game that they

656
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 3: probably won't fall behind massively and have to throw so

657
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:23,800
Speaker 3: it looks ugly, But I don't think Pittsburgh should be

658
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 3: favored by three on the road on a somewhat of

659
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 3: a short week, you know, playing on Sunday night, So

660
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:31,479
Speaker 3: give me the Texans lust three.

661
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 5: Yeah. I mean Steelers offense is still horrendous. The play calling,

662
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 5: I mean what they.

663
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 7: Just they just run, They just run the How many

664
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 7: times are you just gonna throw a back shoulder that

665
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 7: throw to George Pickett, That is like their entire offense

666
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 7: and then they've run it on second along still and

667
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 7: what you saw last week, pick it looked a little better.

668
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:52,600
Speaker 7: That's a horrendous defense that he was facing. Houston should

669
00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 7: get Petrie back to who I love it, safety right

670
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 7: featuring war To will be back on the back end.

671
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:59,200
Speaker 6: I think Ward came back last week, so yeah, I think.

672
00:33:59,080 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 5: Petre's going back.

673
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 7: This speak from his room injury or longer, Bruce Chest

674
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 7: something like that, and I love him I think he's

675
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:06,640
Speaker 7: a player, but yeah, their offense is still broken. This

676
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 7: is also a classic Tomlin lost spot. Oh he's a

677
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 7: favorite against the losing team on the road, by the way,

678
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:18,879
Speaker 7: like they just won on the road secondary Rogan.

679
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:20,280
Speaker 5: They have Baltimore next week.

680
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:24,440
Speaker 4: I love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna see if we

681
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 4: can make what do you guys quit today?

682
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 7: Like this is a game where the Steelers under Tomlin

683
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 7: for as many times as they come out and they'll

684
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:35,359
Speaker 7: upset the team with me against the world. They'll come

685
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 7: out in this spot flat as a pancake and they'll

686
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:41,239
Speaker 7: be down, you know, fourteen to nothing eight minutes in.

687
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 4: I don't want to hear about the labor pays man.

688
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:44,840
Speaker 4: Deliver the damn baby.

689
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:50,279
Speaker 3: Fifteen one against the spread are the Steelers as a

690
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 3: road favorite off a win in the Mike Tomlinever.

691
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 4: That's a broad moment right here for your youngsters. Let's live.

692
00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 3: Steelers are nine and twenty two against the spread as

693
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:03,439
Speaker 3: a road favorite off of win going against a losing team,

694
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:06,640
Speaker 3: and then overall at home they're pretty even. They're fifteen

695
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 3: and fifteen, So really it's on the road. Just just

696
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:11,879
Speaker 3: this exact kind of spot is exactly rare.

697
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 7: Still the flat the flat tom on spot throwing the

698
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 7: fact that have Baltimore next week. You could see them

699
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 7: coming out of a lack of focus. And those are

700
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 7: the trends that I like. It's like because Tomin is

701
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:25,839
Speaker 7: a raw, raw motivator coach in this spot where like

702
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:29,400
Speaker 7: you might not be able to rally the troops, it's got.

703
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:30,839
Speaker 5: To be used to hit that horn.

704
00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 4: Baby, let's dance.

705
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:37,799
Speaker 3: To recap the six pack stuck has the Browns minus

706
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 3: two and a half, the Bills minus two and a half,

707
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 3: and the Jags minus three. I have the Rams plus one,

708
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:46,719
Speaker 3: the Bucks plus three and a half, and the Texans

709
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 3: plus three. Now let's get in to our coaches peped up.

710
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:55,960
Speaker 5: Every time we get ready to play, I just want

711
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 5: to throw up so the press I don't even want

712
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 5: to talk about it sick. You guys, play all right.

713
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 3: This week's coach is pep talk comes to us from

714
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 3: al Pacino in the nineteen ninety two film Cent of

715
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 3: a Woman, And we gotta dedicate this to the Let's

716
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:16,399
Speaker 3: go Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears. Is they're playing each other,

717
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:19,399
Speaker 3: both of them. Season probably couldn't be going any worse.

718
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 3: I don't know how the Broncos overtook.

719
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 6: The Bears for having a terrible season.

720
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 8: Wow, gentlemen, when the shit hits the fan, some guys

721
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 8: run and some guys stay. And if you think you're

722
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:37,440
Speaker 8: preparing these minnos for manhood, you better think again.

723
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 2: What I share?

724
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 4: What kind of.

725
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:41,920
Speaker 8: A show you guys putting on here today?

726
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:45,280
Speaker 3: And we could also go with the Cleveland brown since

727
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 3: the tend to let you down in these spots every year.

728
00:36:49,320 --> 00:36:51,960
Speaker 7: Yeah, but hopefully I'm not there and that ends the

729
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 7: curse of this game that I'm always there for and

730
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:54,840
Speaker 7: get a bad beat on.

731
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 5: Yeah.

732
00:36:55,640 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 3: If the Browns cover, they will hand lamar Jack in

733
00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:04,520
Speaker 3: just his second against the spread loss as an underdog.

734
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 3: He's eleven and one against the spread as a dog,

735
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:09,400
Speaker 3: covering by eight point eight points per game.

736
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 7: Seventeen and four against the spread overall as a favorite

737
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 7: of less than a field goal or an underdog, which

738
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 7: is why at this especially with this total, I would

739
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 7: not lay three.

740
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 3: Speaking of totals, we'll get to that in our next segment,

741
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 3: but first stuck, you and I know more memories are

742
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:34,319
Speaker 3: made when you're there for live NFL action and when

743
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 3: you need tickets. Ticketmaster has got you covered. As the

744
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:41,360
Speaker 3: official marketplace of the NFL. Ticketmaster gives you more ways

745
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:44,439
Speaker 3: to find your perfect seat. Their interactive seat map gives

746
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:47,799
Speaker 3: you three hundred and sixty repreviews of your section to

747
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 3: make sure you have the best view of those pivotal

748
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 3: plays and if your plans changed. Ticketmaster gives you more

749
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:59,280
Speaker 3: flexibility to sell or transfer your tickets, plus mobile tickets

750
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:01,960
Speaker 3: mate getting in on game day of breeze, and you

751
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:05,360
Speaker 3: can even customize your Ticketmaster app to wrap your favorite

752
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 3: team's colors. Find tickets today at ticketmaster dot com slash NFL.

753
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 3: It's not too late, stuff, still want to go to

754
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 3: that game? Hit up our good folks a Ticketmaster. But

755
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 3: let's get into the favorite totals of the week for

756
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 3: each of us, and we have both hit two out

757
00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:27,160
Speaker 3: of three this year.

758
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 5: Both hit last week.

759
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 3: The thank you to mister Josh McDaniel for kicking a

760
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:38,879
Speaker 3: field goal after he took time, which essentially just helped

761
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 3: the underhit in that Sunday night game. So I don't

762
00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:44,759
Speaker 3: know what was going on there, but I'll take it.

763
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 3: I'm up first for the total. And I kind of

764
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:51,439
Speaker 3: alluded to this, but Baltimore Cleveland gotta go under here.

765
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 3: Forty one is the number I have this closer to

766
00:38:54,880 --> 00:39:00,080
Speaker 3: thirty nine. Early down success rate. Cleveland number one on

767
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 3: defense at twenty five zero point seven percent. Baltimore is

768
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 3: actually number two an early down success rate, which is

769
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 3: impressive considering the injuries that Baltimore has been dealing with

770
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:13,880
Speaker 3: all season. So you got the top two defenses in

771
00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 3: early down success rate, You have the top two defenses

772
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:19,840
Speaker 3: and yards per play allowed Cleveland three point two, Baltimore

773
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:23,400
Speaker 3: four point one. You have two teams that play at

774
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 3: a relatively slow pace. Baltimore is twenty second in seconds

775
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 3: per play and the Browns are twenty ninth in seconds

776
00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:34,760
Speaker 3: per play, and then you have the injuries with Obviously,

777
00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 3: Chubb is the big one for Cleveland, and it's crazy

778
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 3: because he's been so consistent in terms of averaging over

779
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 3: five yards of carry. He's five point three for his

780
00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:48,440
Speaker 3: career career. That's nearly a full yard above Kareem Hunt

781
00:39:48,520 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 3: and nearly two full yards above Jerome Ford. Who are

782
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 3: the guys that are gonna be filling in Baltimore? You know,

783
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 3: Gus Edwards looks like he skipped the protocol or got

784
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 3: out of the protocol, so he'll likely be there, but

785
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 3: Odell Beckham didn't practice Wednesday with an ankle for Shaan

786
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:09,279
Speaker 3: Bateman tweaked his hamstring, so you know, even if you

787
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:13,360
Speaker 3: get these guys back, you're talking about receivers with leg injuries,

788
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 3: so not ideal for an offense. And then if you

789
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:21,799
Speaker 3: need your depth, well even your guy Tylan Wallace, who

790
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:24,480
Speaker 3: was not really going to ever play if everyone was healthy,

791
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:27,480
Speaker 3: but now if you're if you have Bateman and Beckham

792
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:30,279
Speaker 3: out again, now you're you're really you have no depth,

793
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:32,600
Speaker 3: Like if anyone goes down, you really can't do anything

794
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:36,800
Speaker 3: but three wide in this game with DuVernay, Agalar and Flowers,

795
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:40,919
Speaker 3: and then Stanley is a little banged up Linderbaum. Both

796
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:42,759
Speaker 3: of those guys will see if they play, but just

797
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:45,800
Speaker 3: a banged up offense for Baltimore going against a great defense.

798
00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:50,560
Speaker 3: As you mentioned, Cleveland games average thirty five combined points,

799
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:53,359
Speaker 3: which is obviously very low, but it should be even

800
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 3: lower because here at Action Network, you know, we do

801
00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:58,840
Speaker 3: our luck rankings, and part of that is, you know,

802
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 3: we calculate expect did scores for each game, which drives

803
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 3: those where we kind of factor out the luck and

804
00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 3: you know, look at, given the circumstances, what a team

805
00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 3: was supposed to score in each game, and Cleveland's combined

806
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:14,799
Speaker 3: scores should be closer to thirty two points a game.

807
00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:18,640
Speaker 3: A lot of it was driven by those two defensive

808
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 3: touchdowns by Pittsburgh that you know, hard to repeat week

809
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:25,080
Speaker 3: in and week out, so you don't expect those to

810
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:28,960
Speaker 3: happen every week. So Cleveland's been playing like lights out

811
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:33,239
Speaker 3: on defense, barely getting games into the thirties here. And

812
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:38,919
Speaker 3: Baltimore banged up, still playing solid on defense as well.

813
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 6: And Deshaun Watson.

814
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:43,440
Speaker 3: I don't know if this is anything, if this is

815
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 3: just an excuse to give him some rest, but they

816
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 3: they said he's not throwing at all on Wednesday, resting

817
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 3: his shoulder.

818
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:50,320
Speaker 5: I don't know where that came from.

819
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 3: Or what's going on with that, but I mean that

820
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:57,800
Speaker 3: can only be good for the under So divisional unders

821
00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 3: in Week four, which four, for what it's worth, has

822
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 3: generally been an over week usually, you know, first few

823
00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:09,920
Speaker 3: weeks of the season, totals are inflated. People start, you know,

824
00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:13,080
Speaker 3: bet casual betters a lot of casual money betting overs.

825
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:16,760
Speaker 3: Finally start to realize it around week four the numbers

826
00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:20,200
Speaker 3: come down over ten to hit, but the exception is

827
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:23,560
Speaker 3: divisional games. And we saw these teams play a thirteen

828
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:27,320
Speaker 3: to three game last year. But Week four divisional unders

829
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:32,399
Speaker 3: twenty seven and eleven seventy since twenty fifteen, all other

830
00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 3: unders over that span hitting at just a forty three

831
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 3: percent clip. So, uh, if you've been under this week,

832
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 3: probably want to do it in a divisional game.

833
00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 6: Baltimore Cleveland under forty one.

834
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 5: I like it.

835
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:47,319
Speaker 7: I should be like I'm gonna call. I'm gonna say,

836
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:52,400
Speaker 7: like Cleveland Browns win. I'm going to say seventeen thirteen.

837
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 6: I'll stick at seventeen twelve.

838
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:58,720
Speaker 7: So on the same, all right for my favorite total.

839
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 7: So I'm about to go on the fly here, just

840
00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 7: to take you behind the process. So I originally was

841
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:08,720
Speaker 7: gonna go Rams Colts over, but I just explained why.

842
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:10,680
Speaker 5: It looks like Richardson's.

843
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:14,280
Speaker 7: Gonna start, so I don't like that as much anymore.

844
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 7: Then I was gonna go Panthers Vikings over, but now

845
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:21,279
Speaker 7: it looks like Bryce Young is gonna start. I thought

846
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:23,879
Speaker 7: he was gonna be out, so we're gonna go back

847
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:25,279
Speaker 7: to Rams Colts over.

848
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 5: I still like it.

849
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 7: I don't like it as much. With Richardson in there,

850
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:30,960
Speaker 7: just because he is an attacking downfield, he might get

851
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:33,960
Speaker 7: a lot of methodical drives that chew the clock up.

852
00:43:33,960 --> 00:43:38,240
Speaker 7: As I said earlier, but this Rams team can attack

853
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:40,399
Speaker 7: this cult secondary, which is what you have to do.

854
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 7: Throw it downfield. Stafford has looked great. They're gonna get

855
00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 7: their points. You know, this Rams defense has been a

856
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:49,759
Speaker 7: bit better than I thought. But with Kelly back, the

857
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 7: offensive line when they've been fully healthy this year has

858
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 7: been awesome, so they you know, they can handle. They

859
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 7: don't have a glaring weak spot on the offensive line

860
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 7: since he did, so they can double Donald here. Richardson

861
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:07,279
Speaker 7: I think can make enough plays. I don't really love

862
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:10,399
Speaker 7: any totals this week, but I show value in this over.

863
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 7: So let's go with the Rams Colts over. So we're

864
00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 7: back to our first, my first original over bet.

865
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:19,239
Speaker 3: Like I said, the Colts haven't turned the ball over

866
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:22,320
Speaker 3: since Week one. With Richardson back, might get a turnover.

867
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 3: Maybe it's in turnover A two or three. Maybe it's

868
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 3: in in opponent territory or gets housed or something like

869
00:44:29,239 --> 00:44:29,600
Speaker 3: that too.

870
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:32,880
Speaker 5: So that and Stafford should should cook against this.

871
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 3: That's really that's why I like the Rams in this game,

872
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:37,280
Speaker 3: you know, coin flip game, but I think the Rams

873
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 3: have a significant edge at quarterback, and I don't. I

874
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:42,480
Speaker 3: think everything else is kind of just kind of cancels

875
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 3: each other out. Okay, so yeah, I got Ravens Browns

876
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:51,480
Speaker 3: under forty one, stuck has back around to Rams Coats

877
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:52,800
Speaker 3: over forty six and a half.

878
00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 5: Now it's just time for our favorite teaser.

879
00:44:57,200 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 6: Of the week.

880
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:11,440
Speaker 2: Six point teasers.

881
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 6: Don't.

882
00:45:14,040 --> 00:45:16,279
Speaker 7: Yeah, a couple of a couple of teaser options here

883
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:18,840
Speaker 7: said the Packers already, you can get them over a

884
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:21,920
Speaker 7: field goal and a touchdown. You also lower the total

885
00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:28,080
Speaker 7: the better because there's less variance with a fewer expected points.

886
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 7: Perfect example Tennessee the Titans here total forty one. They're

887
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:37,120
Speaker 7: catching two and a half at home, variable as a dog,

888
00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:40,920
Speaker 7: but you can tease that super low total to up

889
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:44,960
Speaker 7: over eight. Perfect teaser spot for the Titans. Burrows clearly

890
00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 7: not healthy. He is he missed a ton of throws.

891
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:55,239
Speaker 7: He's dead last and epa plus completion percentage over expectation

892
00:45:55,400 --> 00:45:59,400
Speaker 7: composite in a league that has Zach Wilson in it.

893
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 7: So that's not great. And look, this should be a

894
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:06,759
Speaker 7: defensive battle. Two teams that are one and two desperation

895
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:08,640
Speaker 7: MOE should be low scoring eight and a half in

896
00:46:08,680 --> 00:46:12,320
Speaker 7: your pocket's good there. I also, I don't know where

897
00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 7: the Rams plus one and a half getting that up

898
00:46:14,680 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 7: over a touchdown. I know you like the Rams is

899
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 7: also a good option. But we agreed our favorite teaser

900
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 7: using just the Sunday sides the Titans and then the

901
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:28,160
Speaker 7: Eagles down from eight and a half to two and

902
00:46:28,200 --> 00:46:32,439
Speaker 7: a half. Total there forty four, so lower total should

903
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:34,160
Speaker 7: be able to you know, expect a little bit of

904
00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:39,600
Speaker 7: a lower scoring game divisional game outdoors. But the real

905
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:43,799
Speaker 7: thing is Sam Howe. He cooked the Broncos defense, as

906
00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:46,440
Speaker 7: does everyone for three quarters because the Broncos get absolutely

907
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:46,960
Speaker 7: no pressure.

908
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:47,919
Speaker 5: Last week.

909
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:50,279
Speaker 7: It was a disaster because he holds the ball too

910
00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:52,319
Speaker 7: long and when he's under pressure, it's bad and he

911
00:46:52,400 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 7: makes bad decisions.

912
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 5: I think the Bills had nine sacks.

913
00:46:56,520 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 7: I think it could be making that up, but I

914
00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:01,280
Speaker 7: thought I saw that when I was doing my summaries,

915
00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:04,520
Speaker 7: and they couldn't do anything on offense, and he even

916
00:47:04,560 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 7: struggled against Arizona. So Eagles defensive front should get a

917
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 7: ton of pressure here, and that that Eagles offense it

918
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:17,840
Speaker 7: still looks a little off from a passing perspective, but

919
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 7: they're running the ball really well and they should have

920
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 7: enough to beat the beat the Commanders at home by

921
00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:26,279
Speaker 7: at least a field goal. So you're you're getting through

922
00:47:26,320 --> 00:47:29,520
Speaker 7: the seven and three there, So yeah, Titans Eagles.

923
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:34,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, nine sacks, four picks. That is that is quite

924
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:41,239
Speaker 3: the smattering of negative plays. Uh five turnovers for the

925
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:42,680
Speaker 3: Commanders last week.

926
00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:42,959
Speaker 4: Wow.

927
00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:46,800
Speaker 6: Yeah it is geeesh two of fifty two.

928
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:50,359
Speaker 3: Oh one of nine, that's what? Yeah, one of nine

929
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:54,360
Speaker 3: and third down. Yeah, the Commanders. I mean, the Eagles

930
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:56,960
Speaker 3: might mess around and cover this spread, but never like

931
00:47:57,000 --> 00:47:58,920
Speaker 3: weighing a lot of points in a divisional game.

932
00:47:59,000 --> 00:47:59,879
Speaker 5: So yeah, like the teas.

933
00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:02,880
Speaker 3: So Philly from eight and a half to two and

934
00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:04,440
Speaker 3: a half, Tennessee from two and a half to eight

935
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:08,200
Speaker 3: and a half. Philly, of course, is at home against Washington.

936
00:48:08,239 --> 00:48:13,239
Speaker 3: Tennessee is at home against the Bengals. As a reminder,

937
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:17,319
Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast is presented by Bett MGM and

938
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 3: you can use bonus code Action That's act io N

939
00:48:20,680 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 3: when signing up to get up to fifteen hundred hours

940
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 3: paid back in bonus bets. If your first bet loses

941
00:48:27,480 --> 00:48:33,760
Speaker 3: for New users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

942
00:48:33,800 --> 00:48:39,080
Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

943
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:41,800
Speaker 3: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

944
00:48:41,840 --> 00:48:48,799
Speaker 3: Gambling pomble called one hundred gambler right underdog moneyline parlay toon.

945
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:01,960
Speaker 3: We both at one out of three, which is actually

946
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:05,480
Speaker 3: probably below are me, We're usually closer to five hundred.

947
00:49:05,960 --> 00:49:08,399
Speaker 3: Try to get back on the right track. Here, who

948
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:09,840
Speaker 3: you got for your moneyline?

949
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:12,439
Speaker 5: Dogs making a switch on the fly?

950
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:15,360
Speaker 7: Here again, it's with all the quarterbacks, Like I really

951
00:49:15,400 --> 00:49:17,759
Speaker 7: thought that there was a good chance that we might

952
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 7: maybe could see Minshew and I really did think we

953
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:24,480
Speaker 7: were gonna see Dalton and those were gonna be So

954
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:27,200
Speaker 7: I was gonna go with Carolina for sure, with Dalton

955
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:32,360
Speaker 7: against Cousins as a favorite. But now that I know

956
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 7: it's Richardson in for the Colts, I'm gonna ride your

957
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:37,759
Speaker 7: tails there and I'm gonna go with the Rams. Talked

958
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 7: about that game a lot already, So let's go Rams

959
00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:41,360
Speaker 7: money line, all right?

960
00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:46,760
Speaker 3: And the Rams are even money so not too sexy,

961
00:49:46,840 --> 00:49:50,239
Speaker 3: but you expect them to win that game. And if

962
00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:53,320
Speaker 3: you're if you have a plus one, you can also

963
00:49:53,640 --> 00:49:54,520
Speaker 3: take the money line.

964
00:49:55,560 --> 00:49:58,960
Speaker 6: Essentially, the only thing you lose out on is a you.

965
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:03,759
Speaker 3: Know, push, but you get better odds. And I'm gonna

966
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 3: go and just so we don't have to talk about

967
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:08,839
Speaker 3: this game later, I'll go to the Chicago Bears plus

968
00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:09,480
Speaker 3: one forty.

969
00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:10,800
Speaker 5: This Bronco team.

970
00:50:10,920 --> 00:50:12,400
Speaker 6: I mean, if the Bears.

971
00:50:12,120 --> 00:50:15,480
Speaker 3: Gonna go oh in seventeen maybe maybe if they're not,

972
00:50:15,640 --> 00:50:19,880
Speaker 3: but if they're not, if they're not, you gotta start. Okay,

973
00:50:19,960 --> 00:50:22,319
Speaker 3: which games can they potentially win? You know, maybe one

974
00:50:22,360 --> 00:50:26,239
Speaker 3: of the division games obviously, but this Bronco game is

975
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:27,880
Speaker 3: looking more and more winnable.

976
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:28,560
Speaker 4: Uh.

977
00:50:28,680 --> 00:50:30,919
Speaker 3: And you know, obviously the Broncos are more talented team,

978
00:50:31,040 --> 00:50:33,960
Speaker 3: but you know, I don't know where their heads are

979
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:35,640
Speaker 3: gonna be at. You know, normally we like, you know,

980
00:50:35,680 --> 00:50:37,839
Speaker 3: teams coming off big losses, but both of these teams

981
00:50:37,880 --> 00:50:42,440
Speaker 3: are coming off big losses. Chicago at home, even against

982
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:45,240
Speaker 3: the Bears. I don't know if anybody should be laying

983
00:50:45,440 --> 00:50:48,120
Speaker 3: you know, more than three. So the money line is

984
00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:52,520
Speaker 3: plus one forty here if justin Field is ever gonna

985
00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:55,880
Speaker 3: have a decent game it's gonna be and it's probably

986
00:50:55,880 --> 00:50:58,800
Speaker 3: gonna be here. So give me the Bears at plus

987
00:50:58,840 --> 00:50:59,400
Speaker 3: one forty.

988
00:51:00,719 --> 00:51:03,440
Speaker 7: Uh yeah, what I mean, it's a ship game, so

989
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:06,399
Speaker 7: this game probably shatters to somehow. Whenever you have these

990
00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:09,240
Speaker 7: games with like ship teams, you don't know what to expect,

991
00:51:09,239 --> 00:51:11,040
Speaker 7: a lot of times it just turns into a fun shootout.

992
00:51:11,280 --> 00:51:15,200
Speaker 7: So maybe that does. But uh, I will say that

993
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:17,160
Speaker 7: the Bronco the most trust for the unit in this

994
00:51:17,560 --> 00:51:24,080
Speaker 7: game is the Broncos offense, which is funny. But both

995
00:51:24,120 --> 00:51:27,800
Speaker 7: defense has been so pitiful. I mean it's been bad.

996
00:51:27,880 --> 00:51:30,400
Speaker 7: And yeah we'll see Fields. Fields doesn't do anything this

997
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:32,480
Speaker 7: week against the defense. I can't get pressure, can't stop

998
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:35,319
Speaker 7: a nose, believe, I mean, Sam Howe Carba's team up,

999
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:38,200
Speaker 7: then it's trouble.

1000
00:51:38,320 --> 00:51:41,239
Speaker 5: So yeah, whatever in the ship game, if you want

1001
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:43,919
Speaker 5: to take the moneyline, dog, that's fine. Probably just don't

1002
00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:45,759
Speaker 5: keep talking about it out of it.

1003
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:48,719
Speaker 6: Sean Payton, No, I'm not Sean Payton, karma man.

1004
00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:52,160
Speaker 3: He talked all that, all that junk, and now he

1005
00:51:52,360 --> 00:51:54,839
Speaker 3: is teams looking even worse than Hacket had it working

1006
00:51:54,920 --> 00:51:55,359
Speaker 3: last year.

1007
00:51:55,400 --> 00:51:57,600
Speaker 6: So see if it keeps up all.

1008
00:51:57,560 --> 00:51:59,920
Speaker 3: Right, now it is time for the best of the

1009
00:52:00,160 --> 00:52:03,160
Speaker 3: rest games we haven't covered in any other segment, but

1010
00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:09,160
Speaker 3: are still, as they say, meaningful to some That's.

1011
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:11,200
Speaker 4: Gonna be a touchdown, but that may be meaningful to

1012
00:52:11,239 --> 00:52:13,399
Speaker 4: some of you, and you know.

1013
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:13,839
Speaker 6: Who I mean.

1014
00:52:14,480 --> 00:52:16,839
Speaker 3: All right, First up, we got the Patriots at the Cowboys.

1015
00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:20,680
Speaker 3: Cowboys favored by seven.

1016
00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:22,360
Speaker 6: At bet MGM.

1017
00:52:22,680 --> 00:52:31,560
Speaker 3: The total is forty three, so even numbers abound Cowboys.

1018
00:52:32,160 --> 00:52:35,280
Speaker 3: You know, you would think it's a bounce back spot,

1019
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:39,640
Speaker 3: but this Patriot defense is tough, and the Cowboys do

1020
00:52:39,680 --> 00:52:42,439
Speaker 3: have some issues defending the run. We could be selling

1021
00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:45,440
Speaker 3: out against Arizona. So what do you think about this one?

1022
00:52:45,760 --> 00:52:47,840
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean I made it like sixty eight, so

1023
00:52:48,320 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 7: no play here, and yeah that the run defense is

1024
00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:54,120
Speaker 7: an issue for the Cowboys. Also, the adjustment without digs

1025
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 7: won't be as pick of an issue here this week,

1026
00:52:56,160 --> 00:52:58,680
Speaker 7: but that's just something to watch going forward. I do

1027
00:52:58,760 --> 00:53:00,400
Speaker 7: give the Cowboys a little bit of a hasty had

1028
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:02,560
Speaker 7: some offensive line injuries, I mean last week, but so

1029
00:53:02,960 --> 00:53:05,839
Speaker 7: does everyone play in Arizona. It was a horribly coach game.

1030
00:53:05,840 --> 00:53:07,640
Speaker 7: They got really unlucky in the red zone. They were

1031
00:53:07,680 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 7: there a bunch, But I just think it's one of

1032
00:53:09,680 --> 00:53:12,920
Speaker 7: those games where they just completely overlooked. They just didn't

1033
00:53:12,920 --> 00:53:16,200
Speaker 7: show up and got punched in the mouth. Can't do

1034
00:53:16,239 --> 00:53:20,479
Speaker 7: that against anyone in the NFL. So from an emotional standpoint, yes,

1035
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:23,720
Speaker 7: it's a good bounce back spot, but laying seven against

1036
00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:26,759
Speaker 7: his Patriots defense and a Patriots offense that will commit

1037
00:53:26,800 --> 00:53:29,920
Speaker 7: to the run, which is I think, like didn't Arizona

1038
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:32,680
Speaker 7: ran for over two hundred yards against I mean they

1039
00:53:32,719 --> 00:53:35,120
Speaker 7: and they were running a bunch of different ways with

1040
00:53:35,200 --> 00:53:40,480
Speaker 7: some of their receivers and backs and dobbs, So yeah,

1041
00:53:40,520 --> 00:53:43,280
Speaker 7: that could be a matchup advantage for the Patriots. Also,

1042
00:53:43,320 --> 00:53:46,520
Speaker 7: the Patriots signed Will Greer Zeke revenge game. There's a

1043
00:53:46,520 --> 00:53:48,759
Speaker 7: bunch of bunch of would we have a feeling revenge game,

1044
00:53:49,480 --> 00:53:53,319
Speaker 7: Ridley revenge game, Zeke revenge game, but they signed Will

1045
00:53:53,360 --> 00:53:56,520
Speaker 7: Greer and they had Zeke. So I think it came

1046
00:53:56,520 --> 00:53:58,040
Speaker 7: out that the Cowboys are going to change all their

1047
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:02,200
Speaker 7: signals this week and all their calls because great Zeke

1048
00:54:02,320 --> 00:54:06,319
Speaker 7: and Greer know them all. I think the quote was

1049
00:54:06,360 --> 00:54:10,319
Speaker 7: like they know where the bones are buried, so we're

1050
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:13,759
Speaker 7: gonna change all of our signals. So that could be

1051
00:54:13,800 --> 00:54:17,359
Speaker 7: a little messy and or maybe like they tricked them.

1052
00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:17,640
Speaker 5: I don't know.

1053
00:54:17,680 --> 00:54:21,680
Speaker 7: There should be obviously a fun little game within the

1054
00:54:21,719 --> 00:54:25,040
Speaker 7: game to watch, but that familiarity could help the Patriots

1055
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:30,600
Speaker 7: for sure. And yeah, we'll see if I expect a

1056
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:34,919
Speaker 7: better game from Dak, and I expect to pay the

1057
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:37,920
Speaker 7: Cowboys bounce back. But I'm not laying seven in a

1058
00:54:37,960 --> 00:54:40,880
Speaker 7: game I make six eight with some matchup advantages for

1059
00:54:40,920 --> 00:54:43,640
Speaker 7: the Patriots to surpass.

1060
00:54:43,960 --> 00:54:46,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, if I had to take a side,

1061
00:54:46,400 --> 00:54:50,400
Speaker 3: I would absolutely take the Patriots. Something I am watching

1062
00:54:50,920 --> 00:54:53,200
Speaker 3: because you know, you and I talked in the in

1063
00:54:53,239 --> 00:54:57,360
Speaker 3: the off season. I said, hey, you know, Dallas, Uh,

1064
00:54:57,640 --> 00:55:00,239
Speaker 3: I like them more than I pretty much ever have

1065
00:55:00,360 --> 00:55:03,000
Speaker 3: in terms of you know, Super Bowl futures, but wanted

1066
00:55:03,040 --> 00:55:04,560
Speaker 3: to see, you know, the play can and wanted to

1067
00:55:04,600 --> 00:55:06,640
Speaker 3: see the kicker. Well, the kicker has been all right.

1068
00:55:07,239 --> 00:55:09,480
Speaker 3: The play calling is what everyone's kind of talking about.

1069
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:14,640
Speaker 3: But I wonder if Dak is going to become a

1070
00:55:14,640 --> 00:55:19,120
Speaker 3: bigger talking point because he had the horrible interception and

1071
00:55:20,120 --> 00:55:22,239
Speaker 3: you know, they kept running the ball in close with

1072
00:55:22,320 --> 00:55:24,919
Speaker 3: time running down, and you say, okay, that's horrible play

1073
00:55:24,920 --> 00:55:28,759
Speaker 3: con but then you see Dak's decision on that interception,

1074
00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:34,000
Speaker 3: and you start to wonder, right, like, Okay, maybe there's

1075
00:55:34,040 --> 00:55:36,680
Speaker 3: a reason why we're calling. You know, we give we're

1076
00:55:36,680 --> 00:55:39,160
Speaker 3: putting the ball in Tony Polar's hands. And and now

1077
00:55:39,200 --> 00:55:41,440
Speaker 3: you look up and we're three weeks into the season.

1078
00:55:42,080 --> 00:55:44,040
Speaker 3: And yes he played the Jets, but he also played

1079
00:55:44,040 --> 00:55:47,480
Speaker 3: the Giants, which is horrible defense, and Arizona, which not

1080
00:55:47,680 --> 00:55:51,279
Speaker 3: much there. They've been playing okay, but not a ton

1081
00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:55,000
Speaker 3: Dak is averaging six point three yards in attempt his

1082
00:55:55,200 --> 00:55:58,880
Speaker 3: average up the target is just six point two. Like

1083
00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:02,560
Speaker 3: he's like, this has not been an efficient pass office.

1084
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:04,960
Speaker 3: I know they miss cooks for for some time, but

1085
00:56:05,719 --> 00:56:06,240
Speaker 3: that's happened.

1086
00:56:06,400 --> 00:56:08,239
Speaker 7: What I was saying, I was saying earlier in the

1087
00:56:08,320 --> 00:56:11,560
Speaker 7: year that I think early in the season Dak is

1088
00:56:11,600 --> 00:56:15,919
Speaker 7: gonna be super conservative mentally because he's so worried about

1089
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:19,920
Speaker 7: the interceptions because that was the biggest talking point in

1090
00:56:19,960 --> 00:56:22,120
Speaker 7: the off season and he was like, I guarantee I won't.

1091
00:56:22,480 --> 00:56:25,000
Speaker 7: So he's like I thought he was gonna play really

1092
00:56:25,040 --> 00:56:28,600
Speaker 7: timid and conservative, and that's kind of what I'm saying.

1093
00:56:29,120 --> 00:56:31,319
Speaker 7: He just has to say fuck it and let it

1094
00:56:31,400 --> 00:56:35,120
Speaker 7: go because then you're just overthinking everything. So yeah, there's

1095
00:56:35,120 --> 00:56:39,640
Speaker 7: something definitely going on there. And definitely worth monitoring.

1096
00:56:41,560 --> 00:56:46,640
Speaker 3: Okay, vegas at the Chargers and the Charges are favored

1097
00:56:46,680 --> 00:56:49,480
Speaker 3: by five and a half. The totals forty eight Focuscorgia.

1098
00:56:49,600 --> 00:56:53,120
Speaker 3: I was going to make this my third pick of

1099
00:56:53,160 --> 00:56:58,480
Speaker 3: the six pack, but as we were recording this, it

1100
00:56:58,520 --> 00:57:00,560
Speaker 3: looks like Jimmy g is still in the protocol. Now.

1101
00:57:00,560 --> 00:57:04,120
Speaker 3: I don't know exactly how serious it is because the

1102
00:57:04,120 --> 00:57:07,040
Speaker 3: line hasn't really budged. You know, it was actually six,

1103
00:57:07,400 --> 00:57:09,399
Speaker 3: but I still I bought out. I had I had

1104
00:57:09,400 --> 00:57:11,880
Speaker 3: bet the Raiders at six, so I bought out with

1105
00:57:11,960 --> 00:57:13,919
Speaker 3: Chargers at five and a half, just because I don't

1106
00:57:14,040 --> 00:57:17,000
Speaker 3: you know, if they start Brian hoy or Aidan O'Connell,

1107
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:19,400
Speaker 3: I want no parts of this. But uh, you know,

1108
00:57:20,400 --> 00:57:22,840
Speaker 3: I was looking at this this game because I think,

1109
00:57:23,000 --> 00:57:25,880
Speaker 3: you know, the Raiders coming off prime time against this

1110
00:57:26,000 --> 00:57:30,919
Speaker 3: Charger team that really has not been winning games by

1111
00:57:31,280 --> 00:57:35,960
Speaker 3: margin like the Chargers since going back to twenty twenty two.

1112
00:57:36,080 --> 00:57:38,280
Speaker 3: So going back to the start of last year, the

1113
00:57:38,360 --> 00:57:45,160
Speaker 3: Chargers have won eleven games and they've only won four

1114
00:57:45,200 --> 00:57:49,920
Speaker 3: of them by more than six points. So you know

1115
00:57:50,520 --> 00:57:53,800
Speaker 3: this is not that means four out of their twenty games. Really,

1116
00:57:53,960 --> 00:57:56,600
Speaker 3: you know, if you're looking at them. Would would it?

1117
00:57:56,640 --> 00:57:59,720
Speaker 3: Would they have covered this number? So that's that was

1118
00:57:59,760 --> 00:58:01,640
Speaker 3: kind of I thinking there. And then the Raiders Fince

1119
00:58:01,680 --> 00:58:04,800
Speaker 3: McDaniels took over. They've done the same thing. They They've

1120
00:58:04,800 --> 00:58:08,000
Speaker 3: got a ton of losses, but only a handful have

1121
00:58:08,160 --> 00:58:12,600
Speaker 3: been by, you know, more than six points, so both

1122
00:58:12,880 --> 00:58:15,240
Speaker 3: you know, the Raiders tend to lose close, the Chargers

1123
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:17,880
Speaker 3: tend to win close. So I did like this number

1124
00:58:18,200 --> 00:58:21,600
Speaker 3: at six five and a half. But with the Jimmy

1125
00:58:21,640 --> 00:58:25,400
Speaker 3: G uncertainty, I have to stay off of it. But

1126
00:58:26,320 --> 00:58:28,320
Speaker 3: you know, follow me in the app if you know.

1127
00:58:28,400 --> 00:58:31,840
Speaker 3: Maybe if Jimmy gets ruled in, we'll get back on it.

1128
00:58:31,880 --> 00:58:34,040
Speaker 6: But that was kind of my thinking. Any thoughts on

1129
00:58:34,080 --> 00:58:34,680
Speaker 6: this one.

1130
00:58:36,360 --> 00:58:38,960
Speaker 5: No, it's too much uncertainty here, I will say, though,

1131
00:58:39,000 --> 00:58:40,200
Speaker 5: I mean the Chargers are going to charge her.

1132
00:58:40,240 --> 00:58:42,880
Speaker 7: That's basically all this is. I will say, Kenned, the

1133
00:58:42,960 --> 00:58:44,960
Speaker 7: Chargers aren't getting much pressure. Their defense has been bad,

1134
00:58:44,960 --> 00:58:47,480
Speaker 7: and that's basically what it comes down to when you

1135
00:58:47,520 --> 00:58:50,880
Speaker 7: face Jimmy G. Jimmy G this year under pressure has

1136
00:58:50,920 --> 00:58:57,200
Speaker 7: an eleven quarterback rat eleven, zero touchdowns, four interceptions, and

1137
00:58:57,240 --> 00:58:59,520
Speaker 7: this I think this will this ties into the forty

1138
00:58:59,560 --> 00:59:03,160
Speaker 7: nine Ers a bit too. The biggest difference between Jimmy G,

1139
00:59:03,480 --> 00:59:10,080
Speaker 7: Jimmy B, Jimmy G, and uh Rock Purty is in

1140
00:59:10,120 --> 00:59:13,040
Speaker 7: his final two seasons. Jimmy G could win any game

1141
00:59:13,120 --> 00:59:16,200
Speaker 7: with with the forty nine ers, could make you know,

1142
00:59:16,280 --> 00:59:18,120
Speaker 7: all the throws, but if he was under pressure or

1143
00:59:18,120 --> 00:59:19,960
Speaker 7: had to get moved get out of the pocket, it

1144
00:59:20,080 --> 00:59:23,680
Speaker 7: was he couldn't do it. He wasn't able to improvise.

1145
00:59:23,720 --> 00:59:26,760
Speaker 7: He just he's not very mobile. Look, here's a stat

1146
00:59:26,840 --> 00:59:29,240
Speaker 7: over his final two seasons with the forty nine ers,

1147
00:59:30,120 --> 00:59:35,160
Speaker 7: Garoppolo thirteen touchdown passes, twelve interceptions and a twelve percent

1148
00:59:35,320 --> 00:59:40,320
Speaker 7: explosive pass rate under pressure. So thirteen twelve, twelve percent

1149
00:59:41,160 --> 00:59:46,680
Speaker 7: Purty during his young career over two seasons, seven touchdowns,

1150
00:59:47,240 --> 00:59:52,680
Speaker 7: one interception, sixteen percent explosive pass rate when pressured night

1151
00:59:52,720 --> 00:59:55,400
Speaker 7: and day. And that is the difference. That is why

1152
00:59:55,480 --> 00:59:58,600
Speaker 7: the ceiling is so much higher with his forty nine

1153
00:59:58,680 --> 01:00:02,240
Speaker 7: Ers offense, because Perty can handle pressure and has been

1154
01:00:02,280 --> 01:00:04,760
Speaker 7: able to make plays and can move a little bit

1155
01:00:04,840 --> 01:00:08,040
Speaker 7: more than Jimmy G. But yeah, Chargers are gonna charge

1156
01:00:08,040 --> 01:00:09,160
Speaker 7: it too much and certain thing for me to get

1157
01:00:09,200 --> 01:00:10,880
Speaker 7: involved there, and.

1158
01:00:11,000 --> 01:00:13,640
Speaker 3: We got Vikings Panthers, which I feel like we've talked

1159
01:00:13,640 --> 01:00:17,760
Speaker 3: about a ton but haven't actually made any picks though.

1160
01:00:18,000 --> 01:00:21,240
Speaker 3: Just real quick, Minnesota is favored by three and a

1161
01:00:21,320 --> 01:00:24,840
Speaker 3: half on the road in Carolina. The total is forty

1162
01:00:24,880 --> 01:00:27,280
Speaker 3: five and a half. It looks like Bryce Young is

1163
01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:31,959
Speaker 3: going to go for Carolina. Mingo rookie wide receiver also

1164
01:00:32,320 --> 01:00:37,040
Speaker 3: gotten a limited session Wednesday, so they could be decently

1165
01:00:37,120 --> 01:00:42,680
Speaker 3: close to full strength because the Panthers on offense thoughts

1166
01:00:42,720 --> 01:00:44,440
Speaker 3: to wrap this up, yeah, not only.

1167
01:00:45,200 --> 01:00:49,080
Speaker 7: Yeah, defense a lot of injuries. I would have met

1168
01:00:49,080 --> 01:00:52,920
Speaker 7: the Panthers here in some form or fashion if it

1169
01:00:52,960 --> 01:00:56,640
Speaker 7: was Dalton. But I'm also not laying three in.

1170
01:00:56,720 --> 01:00:58,280
Speaker 5: I'm not laying over a field goal on the road

1171
01:00:58,320 --> 01:00:59,640
Speaker 5: with the Vikings in this defense.

1172
01:01:00,000 --> 01:01:01,840
Speaker 6: Our line team just does not give me good vibes.

1173
01:01:01,880 --> 01:01:04,800
Speaker 3: And you kind of alluded to it them with Dalton

1174
01:01:04,880 --> 01:01:06,680
Speaker 3: is probably peak Panthers for this year.

1175
01:01:06,720 --> 01:01:08,080
Speaker 5: You know, it's just you.

1176
01:01:08,000 --> 01:01:09,760
Speaker 3: Know, they're not even apparently they're not even gonna use

1177
01:01:09,760 --> 01:01:12,320
Speaker 3: Bryce Young on quarterback sneaks is gonna use Andy Dalton

1178
01:01:12,440 --> 01:01:15,640
Speaker 3: like thirty what something year old Andy Dalton instead of

1179
01:01:15,640 --> 01:01:18,440
Speaker 3: your rookie quarterback. If there was ever a time for

1180
01:01:18,480 --> 01:01:20,880
Speaker 3: the Panthers to get a win, get a cover, just

1181
01:01:20,920 --> 01:01:23,760
Speaker 3: like the Chargers were charging the Vikings do Vikings. So

1182
01:01:24,280 --> 01:01:27,160
Speaker 3: this probably as good as spot as any. But yeah,

1183
01:01:27,160 --> 01:01:29,400
Speaker 3: I'm low on the Panthers so and I have their

1184
01:01:29,480 --> 01:01:31,680
Speaker 3: under on their win total. So I'm off this game

1185
01:01:31,960 --> 01:01:35,480
Speaker 3: and then we'll close it out with the Jets Chiefs.

1186
01:01:35,560 --> 01:01:37,520
Speaker 3: It's nine and a half in favor of the Chiefs.

1187
01:01:37,920 --> 01:01:39,800
Speaker 3: Their total is forty two and a half. Usually in

1188
01:01:39,880 --> 01:01:42,280
Speaker 3: these games, were ready to go back the dog. You know,

1189
01:01:43,160 --> 01:01:47,120
Speaker 3: low total, high spread, Chiefs never cover his favorites, but eventually,

1190
01:01:47,200 --> 01:01:48,760
Speaker 3: you know they I think the Chiefs got down to

1191
01:01:48,800 --> 01:01:51,560
Speaker 3: like twenty six percent as like a favorite of a

1192
01:01:51,600 --> 01:01:54,880
Speaker 3: field goal or more since like November twenty twenty. So

1193
01:01:54,960 --> 01:01:57,280
Speaker 3: eventually that's gonna start to even out. We saw it

1194
01:01:57,320 --> 01:01:58,800
Speaker 3: against the Bears.

1195
01:01:58,800 --> 01:01:59,360
Speaker 6: Probably got it.

1196
01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:02,560
Speaker 3: I think it probably continues to even out here. But

1197
01:02:02,560 --> 01:02:03,200
Speaker 3: I don't know what do you have?

1198
01:02:03,240 --> 01:02:06,240
Speaker 6: Do you bet you back the Jets against the Cowboys?

1199
01:02:06,840 --> 01:02:10,520
Speaker 7: That was, yeah, that was the spot because I wasn't

1200
01:02:10,560 --> 01:02:11,440
Speaker 7: backing Zach Wilson.

1201
01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:12,160
Speaker 5: I made that clear.

1202
01:02:12,880 --> 01:02:16,480
Speaker 7: I was backing the Jets defense to step up in

1203
01:02:16,520 --> 01:02:18,600
Speaker 7: a game where you know, you just lost your starting

1204
01:02:18,640 --> 01:02:21,920
Speaker 7: quarterback us against the world. Going on the road against

1205
01:02:22,240 --> 01:02:24,680
Speaker 7: a deck in that offense, it doesn't look great. They

1206
01:02:24,680 --> 01:02:27,640
Speaker 7: shipped the bend. And by the way, this Jets defense

1207
01:02:27,680 --> 01:02:31,320
Speaker 7: that chirped all that offseason talk, we're the greatest, we're

1208
01:02:31,360 --> 01:02:33,919
Speaker 7: gonna be legendary, We're gonna be eighty five Bears, They're

1209
01:02:34,160 --> 01:02:36,320
Speaker 7: go look at the all their all, their underlying metrics.

1210
01:02:36,320 --> 01:02:39,560
Speaker 7: This team's average, This defense has performed average to below average.

1211
01:02:39,920 --> 01:02:42,440
Speaker 7: They're like between fifteenth and twenty first. If you look

1212
01:02:42,480 --> 01:02:48,480
Speaker 7: at DVA DPA success rate, this defense has been disappointing.

1213
01:02:49,280 --> 01:02:50,840
Speaker 7: That's who we need to show up here. That the

1214
01:02:50,880 --> 01:02:53,440
Speaker 7: spot was against Dallas. They didn't even make enough plays

1215
01:02:53,440 --> 01:02:56,000
Speaker 7: against New England. And now I'm not bad. I'm not

1216
01:02:56,000 --> 01:02:59,000
Speaker 7: putting my money on Zach Wilson. The Chiefs numbers made sense

1217
01:02:59,000 --> 01:03:01,200
Speaker 7: whether they were bad as a big because they just

1218
01:03:01,240 --> 01:03:04,720
Speaker 7: their defense was always so bad. Yeah, like you like

1219
01:03:05,240 --> 01:03:07,160
Speaker 7: you could just get in the back door so easily,

1220
01:03:07,160 --> 01:03:09,160
Speaker 7: and you were in shootouts, and but their defense is

1221
01:03:09,160 --> 01:03:12,560
Speaker 7: playing a lot better. Definitely worth exploring. We stayed off

1222
01:03:12,600 --> 01:03:14,760
Speaker 7: the Bears last week in a spot, well, we just

1223
01:03:14,760 --> 01:03:16,760
Speaker 7: couldn't trust the Bears and I just can't trust the

1224
01:03:16,800 --> 01:03:20,000
Speaker 7: Jets here. If Zach Wilson, this game's in New York.

1225
01:03:20,800 --> 01:03:24,400
Speaker 7: If Zack Wilson is bad, like bad, bad as he's

1226
01:03:24,440 --> 01:03:27,720
Speaker 7: been all year early, like the crowd is gonna turn

1227
01:03:28,640 --> 01:03:32,200
Speaker 7: so quick, and then like what do you do? Do

1228
01:03:31,960 --> 01:03:35,720
Speaker 7: you bring in Tim Boyle to Simeon? Like try to

1229
01:03:35,800 --> 01:03:38,400
Speaker 7: learn the playbook in three days? Like if it's bad bad,

1230
01:03:38,400 --> 01:03:40,960
Speaker 7: Simon probably starts next week and then maybe I'll look

1231
01:03:40,960 --> 01:03:44,320
Speaker 7: at the Jets. Simon is bad, but Simon is not.

1232
01:03:45,160 --> 01:03:48,000
Speaker 7: Jack Wilson is so lost right now. Not only he's bad,

1233
01:03:48,040 --> 01:03:52,520
Speaker 7: he has no confidence, Like he checked down to a

1234
01:03:52,640 --> 01:03:55,720
Speaker 7: one yard out covered one yard out on fourth and

1235
01:03:55,800 --> 01:03:57,680
Speaker 7: ten with the with the game on the.

1236
01:04:00,400 --> 01:04:01,160
Speaker 6: Playoff special.

1237
01:04:01,600 --> 01:04:04,120
Speaker 7: So yeah, Zach Wilson, it's it's just it's a bad

1238
01:04:04,160 --> 01:04:06,720
Speaker 7: situation right now. The Chiefs defense is playing better. You're

1239
01:04:06,760 --> 01:04:09,680
Speaker 7: basically hoping that they they got to score some now

1240
01:04:09,680 --> 01:04:11,640
Speaker 7: because you're not going to keep the Chiefs out, especially

1241
01:04:11,680 --> 01:04:14,000
Speaker 7: the way this defense hasn't been as dominant as I thought,

1242
01:04:14,000 --> 01:04:17,400
Speaker 7: as you thought, as anyone thought. Clearly, as they thought

1243
01:04:17,400 --> 01:04:19,160
Speaker 7: they thought they were going to be one of the best.

1244
01:04:19,160 --> 01:04:22,640
Speaker 7: Ever that's certainly not the case. So I show a

1245
01:04:22,720 --> 01:04:24,400
Speaker 7: tad bit of value on the Jets.

1246
01:04:24,960 --> 01:04:25,480
Speaker 5: Well I'm not.

1247
01:04:25,480 --> 01:04:28,320
Speaker 6: Bad, Yeah, I mean, I'd rather bet the Chiefs honestly.

1248
01:04:28,720 --> 01:04:28,919
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1249
01:04:29,040 --> 01:04:31,919
Speaker 7: Hopefully, hopefully we don't spend the whole prime time talking

1250
01:04:31,920 --> 01:04:34,520
Speaker 7: about Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey. But we'll see what

1251
01:04:34,560 --> 01:04:37,080
Speaker 7: happens on the on the broadcast. Nothing against it, but

1252
01:04:37,120 --> 01:04:39,480
Speaker 7: that is everywhere everywhere I look.

1253
01:04:39,600 --> 01:04:47,600
Speaker 5: That storyline. Holy mo, the.

1254
01:04:47,600 --> 01:04:50,280
Speaker 6: Chiefs defense a little underrated. So I'm a I'm.

1255
01:04:50,200 --> 01:04:54,040
Speaker 7: Mazing yess defense might be overrated. Yeah, so may May

1256
01:04:54,640 --> 01:04:57,400
Speaker 7: Wilson versus Patrick Mahomes. You cannot have a bigger quarterback

1257
01:04:57,440 --> 01:04:59,439
Speaker 7: mismatch in the NFL right now?

1258
01:05:00,040 --> 01:05:01,920
Speaker 3: Yeah? Yeah, so yeah it might be. It might be

1259
01:05:02,400 --> 01:05:05,840
Speaker 3: a rare play on a favorite, but stay tuned. I'll

1260
01:05:05,840 --> 01:05:08,240
Speaker 3: have that right about at actionear dot Com Into the Action.

1261
01:05:08,640 --> 01:05:11,800
Speaker 7: By the way, I went three favorites and then luckily

1262
01:05:11,800 --> 01:05:13,240
Speaker 7: overs have been treating me well because I think I

1263
01:05:13,320 --> 01:05:15,840
Speaker 7: hit three in a row. Yeah, it's crazy, including a

1264
01:05:15,880 --> 01:05:19,080
Speaker 7: thirsd ight. I went another over this week and three favorites.

1265
01:05:19,640 --> 01:05:22,520
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1266
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1268
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1269
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1270
01:05:33,320 --> 01:05:36,160
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1273
01:05:43,240 --> 01:05:47,760
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1274
01:05:47,800 --> 01:05:52,040
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1283
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Speaker 3: percent off. And uh, those factors are pretty good. I

1284
01:06:24,880 --> 01:06:28,360
Speaker 3: got a chance to have a batch. Shouts to Factor

1285
01:06:28,400 --> 01:06:29,440
Speaker 3: for sending.

1286
01:06:29,160 --> 01:06:30,840
Speaker 6: Some over, but yeah, I was eating good.

1287
01:06:31,000 --> 01:06:34,680
Speaker 3: It definitely works for somebody like me because I always

1288
01:06:34,760 --> 01:06:37,080
Speaker 3: end up ordering our door dash anyway, So I was

1289
01:06:37,120 --> 01:06:39,920
Speaker 3: able to save some money and uh, just top one

1290
01:06:39,960 --> 01:06:43,560
Speaker 3: in and that was done two minutes. So I'm feeling it.

1291
01:06:43,600 --> 01:06:45,840
Speaker 3: Shouts to factor. Let's talk Survivor.

1292
01:06:47,200 --> 01:06:54,640
Speaker 2: The Survivor Pool pick of the week.

1293
01:06:56,320 --> 01:06:59,960
Speaker 6: You got knocked out by Russell Wilson. Still hilarious.

1294
01:07:00,040 --> 01:07:02,120
Speaker 3: So I went to Washington in League one Giants the

1295
01:07:02,200 --> 01:07:05,560
Speaker 3: league to Jess Barely's we could have both been knocked out.

1296
01:07:05,560 --> 01:07:08,959
Speaker 3: Would have been crazy. Went case this week, I gotta

1297
01:07:09,000 --> 01:07:12,320
Speaker 3: go San Francisco. You know, I'm looking at San Francisco.

1298
01:07:13,480 --> 01:07:15,320
Speaker 6: Now. Granted, they could always walk.

1299
01:07:15,160 --> 01:07:17,760
Speaker 3: Into a situation where a team was a starting quarterback,

1300
01:07:17,800 --> 01:07:20,400
Speaker 3: and this is a very dominant team, so ideally I

1301
01:07:20,400 --> 01:07:23,920
Speaker 3: would like to save them, but I already use the Chiefs.

1302
01:07:24,640 --> 01:07:26,640
Speaker 6: Don't want to use the Eagles in a divisional game.

1303
01:07:27,600 --> 01:07:31,320
Speaker 3: We've've seen the the Commanders upset the Eagles at home,

1304
01:07:31,360 --> 01:07:36,800
Speaker 3: I believe, and don't trust the Cowboys against the Belichick defense.

1305
01:07:36,920 --> 01:07:39,560
Speaker 6: So there's really not many other options here.

1306
01:07:39,760 --> 01:07:42,720
Speaker 3: A lot of these other numbers are really really small,

1307
01:07:43,040 --> 01:07:47,960
Speaker 3: and you know, maybe at one yeah, I mean, once

1308
01:07:48,040 --> 01:07:50,520
Speaker 3: upon a time, I'm sure people probably had the Broncos

1309
01:07:50,560 --> 01:07:52,080
Speaker 3: circled for this week if they didn't use them, in

1310
01:07:52,120 --> 01:07:54,160
Speaker 3: Week two, but you.

1311
01:07:54,120 --> 01:07:55,520
Speaker 6: Know that's how it goes.

1312
01:07:55,680 --> 01:07:57,560
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think this is the time to use

1313
01:07:57,600 --> 01:07:59,480
Speaker 3: the Niners all their other like they have a game

1314
01:07:59,480 --> 01:08:03,680
Speaker 3: against Tampa Bay which doesn't look as enticing as it

1315
01:08:03,720 --> 01:08:07,320
Speaker 3: did heading into the year, and then all the other

1316
01:08:07,360 --> 01:08:11,600
Speaker 3: games divisional games that don't really want to take them.

1317
01:08:11,600 --> 01:08:14,919
Speaker 3: So yeah, we're gonna take them in against Arizona, home

1318
01:08:15,000 --> 01:08:17,479
Speaker 3: favorite in a divisional game fourteen. I think they should

1319
01:08:17,479 --> 01:08:20,640
Speaker 3: be able to get it done because, uh, they're not

1320
01:08:20,680 --> 01:08:23,200
Speaker 3: gonna Arizona's not going to catch San Francisco off car.

1321
01:08:23,280 --> 01:08:27,120
Speaker 3: You know, long Rest just upset Dallas after almost upsetting

1322
01:08:27,520 --> 01:08:30,679
Speaker 3: the Giants. So I think if you have San Francisco

1323
01:08:30,720 --> 01:08:33,760
Speaker 3: and you haven't used them yet, I would use them.

1324
01:08:33,760 --> 01:08:35,719
Speaker 3: And if you have if you use San Francisco against

1325
01:08:35,720 --> 01:08:40,439
Speaker 3: the Giants, which possible, uh, then I'm assuming you have

1326
01:08:40,479 --> 01:08:43,880
Speaker 3: the Chiefs, so then you would use the Chiefs. So yeah,

1327
01:08:43,960 --> 01:08:47,320
Speaker 3: either way, San Francisco, KC or go Casey. If you

1328
01:08:47,400 --> 01:08:50,680
Speaker 3: use San Francisco last week, that's gonna wrap it for

1329
01:08:50,760 --> 01:08:52,240
Speaker 3: Oh you got any thoughts on this on this game?

1330
01:08:52,840 --> 01:08:54,560
Speaker 5: I agree?

1331
01:08:54,840 --> 01:08:57,120
Speaker 3: All right, that's a rat for us. Thank you for listening.

1332
01:08:57,160 --> 01:09:00,320
Speaker 3: We'll be back every Thursday all season long. You can

1333
01:09:00,360 --> 01:09:02,800
Speaker 3: hear more of me this week with my guy Sean

1334
01:09:02,880 --> 01:09:08,200
Speaker 3: Kerner talking fantasy dfs and props on the Fantasy Flex Podcast.

1335
01:09:08,240 --> 01:09:13,479
Speaker 3: We also have the Player Projections episode right here on

1336
01:09:13,520 --> 01:09:16,440
Speaker 3: this channel. And you can hear Stucky talking college football

1337
01:09:16,760 --> 01:09:17,760
Speaker 3: on Big Bets on.

1338
01:09:17,720 --> 01:09:20,000
Speaker 6: Campus every Friday morning.

1339
01:09:20,760 --> 01:09:23,599
Speaker 3: Stuck is on X at Stuckey two, I'm at Chris

1340
01:09:23,680 --> 01:09:26,120
Speaker 3: Raybond and you can find us at those same Handles

1341
01:09:26,400 --> 01:09:30,040
Speaker 3: won a free award winning Action Network app. Until next

1342
01:09:30,080 --> 01:09:36,600
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1343
01:09:40,560 --> 01:09:44,640
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1344
01:09:44,680 --> 01:09:47,200
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1345
01:09:47,200 --> 01:09:50,080
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