1 00:00:01,080 --> 00:00:04,680 Speaker 1: Your tunes about Drive on Home of the Black and 2 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:28,400 Speaker 1: Gold Steelers Nation Radio. Yeah, welcome back to the Drive. 3 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 1: I'm Dale Alley here with Matt Williamson and Matt. We 4 00:00:32,120 --> 00:00:37,160 Speaker 1: often reference Bill Barnwell articles on the ESPN. We don't 5 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:42,560 Speaker 1: always agree with his uh the topics of his stories 6 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:48,000 Speaker 1: for some of the um assumptions that he makes in them. 7 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 1: Um to be honest, I opened this story yesterday or Sunday, 8 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 1: whatever day it was. His five NFL teams he expects 9 00:00:57,080 --> 00:01:00,160 Speaker 1: to decline, or at least he had declined and wins. 10 00:01:00,240 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 1: He did the opposite last week or a couple of 11 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 1: days ago or whatever. And I expected to see the 12 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 1: Steelers listened among his teams. Yeah, they're there, the easy pick. 13 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 1: They seemed like the low hanging fruit for these guys, right. Um, 14 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 1: So I'm going through the five teams that he has 15 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:17,760 Speaker 1: who could take a step backwards this year and don't 16 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:19,959 Speaker 1: get to the bottom, like you know, the Steelers. Didn't 17 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 1: mention the Steelers. You would think that that's an easy one. 18 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:25,639 Speaker 1: Double digit wins, they dropped running back the first round. 19 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 1: You know, I mean a lot of these things. UM, 20 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:30,119 Speaker 1: real quick about Bill, who I think does very, very 21 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 1: good work. And when he does these articles, I read 22 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 1: nine out of ten of them. Um, he is very 23 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:38,839 Speaker 1: analytically background him. He started a Football Outsiders its whole 24 00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: reference d v o A, and well, you know, they 25 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 1: probably won't win as many close scoring games. Things like that. 26 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 1: That are NFL trends, which I think are a good 27 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 1: way looking at it. I will say, though, he wrote 28 00:01:52,480 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 1: these two articles and I'm gonna throw him under the 29 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:57,559 Speaker 1: bus a little. He took the easy way out a little, 30 00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:00,560 Speaker 1: and that he took the Chiefs to lose more games 31 00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 1: than last year, and he picked the Jaggs as to 32 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:08,079 Speaker 1: win more like and the won one right, and they 33 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 1: lost too. So in the seventeen game season. If they 34 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 1: lose three this year, you're correct, Like I wish you 35 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:16,679 Speaker 1: had taken more teams in the middle, not the don't 36 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 1: give me the Jets and the Jags as teams that 37 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:22,240 Speaker 1: could get better, like they better get certainly, hope you 38 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 1: all right, We're not asking for much yere. So the 39 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:26,920 Speaker 1: teams that he had who could take a step back 40 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 1: this year with the Bills, the Browns, the Chiefs, the Packers, 41 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 1: and the Titans, which again are high hanging fruit, you know, 42 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:38,680 Speaker 1: I mean those are some of the best teams. But 43 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:41,639 Speaker 1: I do think it's noteworthy for the Steelers, the Packers aside, 44 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:45,359 Speaker 1: those are the real competition in in the a f C. 45 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 1: And didn't mention Baltimore, who's going through some tough times 46 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 1: as well. Um, So I do think that's noteworthy that 47 00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:54,639 Speaker 1: don't just look at these powerhouses in the a f 48 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:57,920 Speaker 1: C or these perceived powerhouses and say, oh, they'll be 49 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: just as good this year. They're gonna win thirteen games. 50 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 1: Teams like, there's a lot of things working against those 51 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 1: teams to repeat. It's hard to repeat. I mean, it's 52 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:07,640 Speaker 1: hard to be the Steelers, the Patriots, Seattle and just 53 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 1: be double digit wins year after year. You noticed none 54 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:13,680 Speaker 1: of those teams are listed on here, right, Saints and 55 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:18,800 Speaker 1: you know the Harbor and Carol and right exactly, Tomas. 56 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:20,640 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna start here with the Chiefs. They had 57 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 1: a point differential plus one eleven, which is pretty good. 58 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:28,720 Speaker 1: Look quick on the Chiefs. People think because they're my 59 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,079 Speaker 1: homes and they're so good lately and they went to 60 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:33,919 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, they just steam rolled teams last year. 61 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 1: They didn't, you know, they played a lot more close 62 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 1: games and you even heard things around the league, like 63 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 1: they're just not trying that hard, Like that's not how 64 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 1: the league works. Yeah, well, to to that point, I mean, 65 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 1: they were plus one eleven. They had twelve more wins 66 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:51,119 Speaker 1: and they had losses, so that's less than ten Their 67 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:53,720 Speaker 1: average win by what by was less than ten points 68 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 1: every week. I think you'll be getting to this, but 69 00:03:56,120 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure he states something about their average margin 70 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 1: of victory was much lower than in previous years. You know, 71 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 1: last the first two Mahomes years, they just destroyed everybody. 72 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 1: This is the past year they did. The defense wasn't 73 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 1: as good. Defense wasn't as good. Everyone's gonna blame in 74 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 1: the old line. But the old line was late in 75 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:17,800 Speaker 1: the as a playoff, it happened late. Uh So last 76 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:22,200 Speaker 1: year they're there. PYTHAGOREANX win expectation last year was ten 77 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:25,160 Speaker 1: and a half wins, which means like they outplayed there. 78 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: What the numbers would tell you, Okay, what that is is, 79 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 1: here's all the results yards for play who they played 80 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 1: the d o A basically dv o A. Yeah, all 81 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:40,159 Speaker 1: those things that wrap up and on a normal season, 82 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 1: a normal team would win ten point seven games in 83 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 1: that instance, obviously having my homes helps and you know, 84 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 1: as Steelers have been over the d y o A 85 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: for a lot of years, but you don't usually blow 86 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 1: it out of the water. It's usually an indicator that 87 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 1: you weren't quite as good as your record indicating. And 88 00:04:57,120 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 1: they went eight and oh in games decided by seven 89 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 1: or fewer points. Now the quarterback helps in that without question. 90 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 1: The the Steelers with Ben and Tomlin are better than 91 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:13,600 Speaker 1: in one score games where the average is once is, 92 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:17,159 Speaker 1: of course, because one team loses, one team wins where 93 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 1: your tie um. But generally speaking, if you're seven and one, 94 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 1: you'll probably be four and three the next year. You 95 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:30,360 Speaker 1: know what I um, so I think when you look 96 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:33,159 Speaker 1: at that, Uh he goes through some of the games 97 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:36,039 Speaker 1: that they won last year that they probably shouldn't know 98 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 1: if you remember they played the Chargers. Uh when Justin 99 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 1: Herbert was his first game the first game. Yeah, hadn't 100 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:45,560 Speaker 1: practiced as the starter all week long. Tyrod Taylor practices 101 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 1: as the starter gets stabbed and gets needles stuck in 102 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:53,840 Speaker 1: his lum before the game. And it was a tight one. 103 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 1: In fact um Harrison Booker hit a fifty eight yard 104 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:04,160 Speaker 1: field goal to win that game. As time ran out yard. Yeah, 105 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 1: that's not a high percentage winning play. Seven weeks later, 106 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 1: the Panthers were within two points of them with one 107 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 1: fifty three to go and had the ball. So the 108 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 1: Panthers with Teddy Bridgewell, who loses these kind of games. 109 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, he keeps it close. Um, they gained no 110 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:24,600 Speaker 1: yards on three plays. I remember that game because one 111 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:28,599 Speaker 1: of they actually lost two yards on one of those 112 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 1: plays because Teddy checked it down to Christian McCaffrey behind 113 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:34,719 Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage instead of trying to throw the 114 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:36,160 Speaker 1: ball down the field. And I think it was on 115 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 1: second down. Yeah, it must have been Mike Davis. McCaffrey 116 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:43,720 Speaker 1: wasn't in there, but um, and of course it went backwards. 117 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 1: They lost two yards and so they had to try 118 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:50,840 Speaker 1: a sixty seven yard field goal that didn't the Raiders. 119 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 1: We're up on Chiefs to go, and the Raiders beat 120 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 1: him last year. Gruden might have an idea how to 121 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 1: play these guys. You know, they gave up a seventy 122 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 1: five yard touchdown drive in seven plays. Now you can say, okay, 123 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 1: that that's sure. That's what Homes does does. The other 124 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: two instances where the defense a bad defense gotta stop 125 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 1: or the other team screwed it up. Both games were 126 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 1: relying on a kicker to hit a long field goal, 127 00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:20,000 Speaker 1: and one of them work in your favorite, one didn't. 128 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:22,760 Speaker 1: They're both work in your favorite. The Broncos were within 129 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 1: three points of the Chiefs to start the fourth quarter 130 00:07:25,720 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 1: uh at nineteen sixteen in Week thirteen, and the only 131 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: score in the fourth quarter was a book, your book, 132 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 1: your field goals, so they won that over um. The 133 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 1: Falcons scored a touchdown to go up fourteen to ten. 134 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 1: They scored ten points against the Falcons. You do this 135 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 1: on the Falcons. It's mind boggling how many games they 136 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 1: quote should have won or right, we're in and they 137 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 1: end up with you know, fourth pick in the draft 138 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:53,760 Speaker 1: and Kyle Pitts. Yeah, um, so there was some luck 139 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:56,520 Speaker 1: involved there. Oh yeah, yeah, there was some good fortune 140 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 1: with you though. I do think there's some skill if 141 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 1: you have Ben and Tomlin and or my homes and 142 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 1: got a good kicker and good kicker, and you know, 143 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 1: you're probably gonna win more than you lose of close 144 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 1: scoring games. But not no, not seven and one. You know, 145 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:14,480 Speaker 1: the Bills last year they're similar, they were thirteen and three, 146 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 1: but their point differential was plus one six, so they 147 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 1: were actually better than Kansas City and point differential, but 148 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 1: their win expectation was ten point six wins and there 149 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 1: were five and there were four and one in one 150 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 1: score games. Speaking of their point differential, I've just done 151 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:32,680 Speaker 1: a lot of Bills homework lately. As you can imagine, 152 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:37,240 Speaker 1: their last three games they were plus eighty eight I 153 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 1: think in point differential before going into the season. I mean, 154 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:42,839 Speaker 1: they got better than the season went on, but early 155 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:45,080 Speaker 1: on they weren't destroying teams like that. I mean they 156 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 1: killed three decent teams by eighty eight points. Um, So 157 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:53,840 Speaker 1: you know, can they sustain that? Is it? You know? 158 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean they were again, they're like 159 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 1: the Chiefs. They're kind of bringing back. They're running the back. 160 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:01,600 Speaker 1: The Chiefs are changed off, some line made some difference 161 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 1: changes there. But the skill guys are the skill guys, 162 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 1: and defense the same. I mean in terms of I 163 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:09,839 Speaker 1: don't think anyone's saying the Chiefs or Bills won't be 164 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 1: good teams, but it will they be as can they 165 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:14,720 Speaker 1: win thirteen and fourteen games? Right? That's the like I 166 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 1: think the Chiefs. More importantly, I guess in if seventeen 167 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 1: game season, can they lose two in three games? Yeah, 168 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:22,720 Speaker 1: a good way of looking at it. I think the Chiefs, 169 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:24,800 Speaker 1: of course, will be fine. I mean everybody we trade 170 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 1: positions with them. But I could see their old line 171 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 1: editions paying off but struggling early. You know that that's 172 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:34,560 Speaker 1: not something that happens overnight. I read this start to 173 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 1: Finish two and he has good points. I don't know 174 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:39,959 Speaker 1: that I'm buying in on the Bills, though. I don't 175 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 1: think they'd be on this list because they're bringing back 176 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:45,840 Speaker 1: almost the exact same crew. We know what they are. 177 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:49,559 Speaker 1: I mean, they swap out John Brown Frommanuel Sanders, same thing, 178 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:52,440 Speaker 1: you know, like it's it's it's less variables with them. 179 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 1: To me, Yeah, I don't know if they have been 180 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 1: on my list. The next The next one is interesting. 181 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: It's Cleveland. Cleveland's the is worth talking about. Cleveland finished 182 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 1: eleven and five last year. Now, remember they were ten 183 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 1: and five going into that regular season finale against the Steelers. 184 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 1: If they lose that game, in which the Steelers sat 185 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:15,680 Speaker 1: a bunch of their regulars, Cleveland doesn't make the playoff. 186 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 1: And it's a completely different feeling in Cleveland right now 187 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 1: than it was we're we're building on something, We're hoping 188 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:24,640 Speaker 1: to get the playoffs this year or not. Oh, we're 189 00:10:24,679 --> 00:10:27,360 Speaker 1: the favorites in one of the best divisions. We're coming 190 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 1: for the Chiefs. I wonder if he gave Mike Tomlin 191 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 1: true sireum, if he would play that regular season finale differently. 192 00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 1: Maybe I'm sure he would. The more you think about it, 193 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:40,360 Speaker 1: I mean your four. I mean going into that game, 194 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 1: I think you might have gotten the Dolphins into the 195 00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:45,559 Speaker 1: playoffs instead. Going into that game, we were all pretty 196 00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 1: happy with the idea of playing Cleveland the second time, 197 00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:53,600 Speaker 1: thinking Steelers are beating them. It was thirty eight to seven. 198 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 1: Mid hines Field destroyed him earlier in the year. This 199 00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 1: game doesn't matter, They'll kill him. Didn't go that way, 200 00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 1: but I think the Steelers looked at the Browns is 201 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 1: a good Week one matchup in the proseason, and you 202 00:11:04,640 --> 00:11:08,200 Speaker 1: get the rest of people. So I'm not like killing 203 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:09,960 Speaker 1: Tomlin for this. I don't think you are either, But 204 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:12,240 Speaker 1: I think you if if you could change the course 205 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 1: of history, Yeah, you have to play that game differently. Uh. 206 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 1: There point differential was minus eleven, minus eleven. It's kind 207 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 1: of remarking he breaks it down here. There's some really 208 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:30,559 Speaker 1: interesting stats. Is really interesting. There have been ninety one 209 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:33,560 Speaker 1: teams that finished with a point differential between minus twenty 210 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 1: five and minus one. The Browns were the only team 211 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 1: in that group to win at least eleven games. That's real, 212 00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:46,360 Speaker 1: flukey um only four one ten games one and one 213 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:50,839 Speaker 1: and four ninety one. That includes a pair that declined 214 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:56,280 Speaker 1: dramatically the following season, the Dolphins in the twenty nineteen Texans. Uh. 215 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:59,200 Speaker 1: Flip it to the other way. Five teams during that 216 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:02,400 Speaker 1: time have gone eleven and five. Just two of those 217 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:08,440 Speaker 1: teams have posted a negative point differential, Browns and Colts, 218 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:12,680 Speaker 1: who were actually worse at minus thirty. Now, the Colts 219 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:18,640 Speaker 1: the following season didn't have paid Manning. Okay, I was 220 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 1: just trying to think what team that was? That A 221 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 1: that was? That was Manning's last year? Luck came in right, Okay? 222 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:28,960 Speaker 1: So was that the year? Right? So I think they 223 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 1: got the first pick in the draft after that? Yeah, 224 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:33,600 Speaker 1: I mean Manning got hurt. Sat the whole year. They 225 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:37,520 Speaker 1: played with bad quarterbacks and we're massively exposed. Cleveland's d 226 00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 1: B o A last year was Yeah. The team ahead 227 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 1: of them was the four and twelve Falcons right right, 228 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:49,839 Speaker 1: right now, there's the Browns ones really interesting to me 229 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,199 Speaker 1: and really should be on the list. Their win expectation 230 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:56,440 Speaker 1: last year was seven points seven or seven point seven. Uh, 231 00:12:56,640 --> 00:13:00,360 Speaker 1: their record is their recording games decided by seven a 232 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:03,840 Speaker 1: few fewer points was seven and two. One of those 233 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:07,319 Speaker 1: was that regular season finale against the Steelers, which I'm 234 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 1: not sure if you should wait them the same, you know, 235 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:12,720 Speaker 1: all Week seventeen stuff in general. I mean, the argument 236 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:15,720 Speaker 1: for them is, hey, we figured it out with a 237 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:17,960 Speaker 1: young coach and a young team, and we got better 238 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:21,199 Speaker 1: as the season went on, and um, if the Steelers 239 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 1: played them again, that probably wouldn't have went the same 240 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:27,160 Speaker 1: way as Week one and more it didn't, but I 241 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:30,240 Speaker 1: mean it's that was the worst version of the Browns 242 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:32,680 Speaker 1: and it got better. And they also played three games 243 00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:36,599 Speaker 1: with just abysmal weather, but the opponent did too, the 244 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:38,880 Speaker 1: same pleason factor in in the you know, the point 245 00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:42,240 Speaker 1: differential epigo deal. I do think their point differential stuff 246 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:45,760 Speaker 1: stands out dramatically in history shows. You know, it's hard 247 00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 1: to keep that up. But I think their defense is 248 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:50,920 Speaker 1: better on paper right now than it was then. You know, 249 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:55,160 Speaker 1: they've added pieces and you would think stefanski second year 250 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:57,959 Speaker 1: should be better. But it just depends how you look 251 00:13:58,000 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 1: at it. I mean, if you want to look at 252 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:02,199 Speaker 1: all these teams, glass half fool, which is very easy 253 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:05,240 Speaker 1: to do this time of year, as opposed to these 254 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:07,040 Speaker 1: are what the numbers have showed us for the last 255 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 1: thirty years. And we don't care about how you view it. 256 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 1: This is just facts. You know, you can have two 257 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 1: different views of the Browns. Here's their schedule from last year. 258 00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 1: They lose at Baltimore and the opener thirty eight to six. 259 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 1: They got killed right, eight to six. They beat the 260 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:30,720 Speaker 1: Bengals in week two, Washington in Week three, Washington's offense 261 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 1: was horrendous at Dallas. Uh, they win. Good time to 262 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: play Dallas. If you remember that game, they might have 263 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 1: been the game that got hurt. I think it was 264 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:44,240 Speaker 1: because he got hurt, I think, and I think he 265 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 1: played the majority of four games. Uh. Then they beat 266 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 1: the Colts thirty three. That's a nice one at home. Uh. 267 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 1: They lost at Pittsburgh eight to seven, bad and that 268 00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 1: was never competitive. They won at Cincinnati thirty seven, thirty four, 269 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 1: that's two wins over the Bengals. They lost to the 270 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 1: Raiders at home sixteen to six. That was one of those. 271 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 1: I think that's the beginning of the three bad games wheatherwise. 272 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:13,040 Speaker 1: Then they beat then they beat Houston at home ten 273 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 1: to seven, again in bad weather game close. Then they 274 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:20,680 Speaker 1: beat the Eagles at home seventeen. I think those were 275 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 1: the three bad weather games, but they were bad opponents. 276 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 1: They won at Tennessee, lost to the Ravens two at home, 277 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:35,800 Speaker 1: beat the Giants twenty six in the Meadowlands, lost to 278 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 1: the Jets six. Yeah. Uh, and then beat the Steelers two. 279 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:45,800 Speaker 1: We know the circumstances of that, gamp. I mean, the 280 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:49,200 Speaker 1: whole division had a very favorable schedule last year, but 281 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 1: that one's there's no tough ones. I mean they're there too. 282 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:57,000 Speaker 1: Two raven games, two Steelers games. There. Two shining victories 283 00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:02,000 Speaker 1: were over the coltson in in tight Steelers beat the 284 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:07,360 Speaker 1: same teams, beat those same teams, and really, yeah, they're 285 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 1: not heavy hitters, no at all. Who else is not 286 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 1: on that is a big win. No, until they got 287 00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:16,560 Speaker 1: to the playoffs and beat the Steelers. Now that happened, 288 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 1: you can't take it away from No. No, that was 289 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 1: a shining moment in Brown's history and Steelers did not 290 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 1: play well and made things easier on them, and they 291 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 1: should have. But the Browns were a better team that day. 292 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:27,800 Speaker 1: I mean, there's no doubt about that, and they might 293 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:29,440 Speaker 1: be a better team right now. I mean, I'm kind 294 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 1: of leaning towards picking them to win the division, but 295 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 1: it's more of an indictment on where the Ravens are, 296 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:38,360 Speaker 1: and I don't feel strong about that prediction at all, 297 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 1: And I may go back on and pick them to 298 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:42,680 Speaker 1: be third when it's all said and done. I'm not sure. 299 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 1: I just I don't like how they're built. Their projected 300 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 1: wins last year was seven point seven. That's the type 301 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:52,800 Speaker 1: of team they played. So there's a good chance that 302 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:56,880 Speaker 1: maybe the changes that they've made only get them to 303 00:16:57,000 --> 00:17:00,160 Speaker 1: ten or eleven wins this year, because that's what they 304 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 1: were last year. They were a seven win team. They 305 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:06,360 Speaker 1: got they got fortunate in a few games and ended 306 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:10,920 Speaker 1: up winning eleven games, almost four more three plus more 307 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:13,520 Speaker 1: games than what they should have won. So if you 308 00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 1: regress that and then you added and you get better, 309 00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:18,919 Speaker 1: get better. So let's say your two games better, Okay, 310 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,720 Speaker 1: we win ten this year. The other thing about them, too, 311 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 1: is that offensive line, which is so important to them. 312 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:28,719 Speaker 1: Played a very high percentage of snaps, you know, like 313 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:33,160 Speaker 1: injuries are harder thing to predict obviously, but what's his face? 314 00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 1: The guard missed a little bit of time. But other 315 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:37,879 Speaker 1: than that, they were very very healthy upfront. That they 316 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:39,880 Speaker 1: would be a different team if you had to deal 317 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:43,600 Speaker 1: with different hardships, you know. And again young coach, um, 318 00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:46,120 Speaker 1: I think they're for real. I absolutely do. I'm very 319 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 1: impressed with how they're built. But there are some things 320 00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:52,080 Speaker 1: that usually when you take a it's also how much 321 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:54,480 Speaker 1: of he mentions here. They called the plexiglass principle too, 322 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:56,920 Speaker 1: that you get a little better one year and a 323 00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,320 Speaker 1: little better than next year, then you take this huge jump. 324 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:01,760 Speaker 1: Well usually bounce back and hit your face off the 325 00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 1: plexiglass and move back a small step. Again, it's hard 326 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:08,280 Speaker 1: to really take a big jump and met it, and 327 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:11,480 Speaker 1: they took a big jump, especially especially in football, because 328 00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 1: it's hard to maintain. I do know that they've already 329 00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 1: been talking about They open with the Chiefs and they've 330 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:20,840 Speaker 1: already been talking about Listen is the first of two 331 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:23,120 Speaker 1: meetings with the Chiefs this year. I wouldn't be seeing 332 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 1: those things, but they go out there and get smoked 333 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 1: in this opener against Kansas City, and I would bet 334 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:32,359 Speaker 1: my I don't care what the spread is, I'm taking 335 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 1: the Chiefs in that game. In casey Andy Reid's had 336 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:38,800 Speaker 1: all off season to plan for this Someday night game. 337 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:40,880 Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see, Yeah, you're gonna see all 338 00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 1: kinds of you'll see something out of the Chiefs that 339 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:47,000 Speaker 1: you haven't seen before. Oh. I just think that. Okay, Yeah, 340 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: the Browns defense is better on paper, but that's you're 341 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:53,680 Speaker 1: not going to deal with that, you know, tsunami you're 342 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,359 Speaker 1: walking into. You know, in terms of just the Chiefs offense, 343 00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 1: it's gonna be a lot to handle. And I just 344 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:01,080 Speaker 1: wonder how you know they've they've put so much into 345 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 1: this first game, all the chief we we had them 346 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:05,479 Speaker 1: last year, we were right there with him. And then 347 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 1: you go out and lose this one by three touchdowns. Yeah, 348 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,119 Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, now that hey, wait a 349 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:14,560 Speaker 1: second here, maybe maybe this isn't what we thought it was. 350 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:17,480 Speaker 1: Steelers could lose by three touchdowns in Buffalo too. In 351 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 1: Buffalo is great. Yeah, but I trust the organization and 352 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 1: Tomlin to whether that storm better than a new team. 353 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 1: You know, just you know, it's just that's the experienced 354 00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:29,280 Speaker 1: factor of the coaching factor. Now, the Browns are interesting 355 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:32,200 Speaker 1: to me. I mean, the fact that there point differential 356 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:37,160 Speaker 1: historically is such an anomaly for their record stands out 357 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,320 Speaker 1: to me in that situation. I get and part of 358 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:42,240 Speaker 1: that was because they get blown out by the Steelers 359 00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:44,920 Speaker 1: and in Ravens in those two games early in the 360 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:47,560 Speaker 1: see games they won were close. I mean, does still 361 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 1: matter that get beat bad by big, good teams? It 362 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:54,000 Speaker 1: says a lot about you. Um. The Packers of the 363 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:56,040 Speaker 1: next team on this list. Yeah, they're also a little easy. 364 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:59,240 Speaker 1: They were plus one forty though last year, Uh, they 365 00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 1: had their project it wins was eleven point one. Their 366 00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:04,840 Speaker 1: recording games decided by seven or fewer points was only 367 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 1: three and two. Yeah, I noticed that too, um, which 368 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,359 Speaker 1: is pretty realistic. It's not a great indicator. I mean, 369 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 1: they've won thirteam the last two games. They also had 370 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 1: the third toughest schedule last year in the league. So 371 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 1: I don't know they'd be on there for me because 372 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:19,440 Speaker 1: I also think their division is bad. I think they're 373 00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:21,959 Speaker 1: there is clearly one of the best teams in the NFC. 374 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:25,159 Speaker 1: NFC in the NFC is not deep fantasy is not deep. No, 375 00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 1: I think they could have a real good chance to 376 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:30,560 Speaker 1: go to Super Bowl or fighting. Tampa's the top contenders 377 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:33,359 Speaker 1: and maybe as much as any division in the league. 378 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 1: I feel confident saying Green Bay is gonna win. There's 379 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,280 Speaker 1: yeah the other they could easily go six and o 380 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:41,240 Speaker 1: in that division. Two. Yeah, that goes a long way 381 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 1: to get into twelve thirteen wins. The Titans are the 382 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:47,080 Speaker 1: final team on the list. They're interesting because they're hive 383 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:52,119 Speaker 1: variants team. There wind or point differential was only plus 384 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,680 Speaker 1: fifty two. Last year they were eleven and five. Their 385 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 1: win expectation was nine and a half wins. In games 386 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:02,320 Speaker 1: just sided by seven or fewer points, they were seven 387 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:06,600 Speaker 1: and two. Okay, they had the ninth easiest schedule. I 388 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 1: say their schedule wasn't bad, and the division isn't bad 389 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:12,440 Speaker 1: this year either. They probably win four or five games 390 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:14,439 Speaker 1: in their division in the division in the division. But 391 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:15,960 Speaker 1: I don't know that they're I don't know that they're 392 00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:17,720 Speaker 1: a good football team. That's what I just say is 393 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,960 Speaker 1: they might be a good a f C South team, 394 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,360 Speaker 1: But are they a good a f C team? It's 395 00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:26,680 Speaker 1: totally different. I know people people were talking about Um. 396 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 1: I mean, well, you're gonna see uh, Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore, Cleveland, 397 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 1: and then you know who are the next teams after that? 398 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:37,359 Speaker 1: When one of those teams in the South is gonna 399 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 1: win division, probably a two horse race. Um, But I 400 00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 1: don't know they either one of them are any good. 401 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 1: As we just talked about the Steelers and Brown's beat 402 00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:50,240 Speaker 1: both of those teams last year. I'm actually I'm set 403 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 1: to do a power rank this week and I haven't 404 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,120 Speaker 1: given it much thought, but I'm just kicking it around 405 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:58,000 Speaker 1: in my head now. I mean, I would take the Chiefs, 406 00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 1: the Ravens, the Browns, the Bills, the Steelers, the Chargers, 407 00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 1: the Patriots over any team in the South where they 408 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:10,720 Speaker 1: stand right now. And I think Miami is on the 409 00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:13,040 Speaker 1: same level and maybe Denver's on the same level with 410 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:14,960 Speaker 1: the Colts and Tennis. The only differences is one of 411 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:17,440 Speaker 1: those teams, one of these teams is gonna win their division. Yeah, 412 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,640 Speaker 1: and they also have four games against Jack and they'll 413 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:22,399 Speaker 1: have still have a decent record. But I don't think 414 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:24,439 Speaker 1: they're gonna be any good. Right to your point, I 415 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,159 Speaker 1: don't know they'll be better, So maybe they're not the 416 00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:29,360 Speaker 1: best qualifier for this because their record might make them 417 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:32,240 Speaker 1: look better than what they are. But there's a lot 418 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:34,160 Speaker 1: of variants with them too though. I mean, they put 419 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 1: all his money to the defense. Do we know it's better? 420 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 1: It was awful last year. They still don't know who 421 00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:42,760 Speaker 1: the right tackle is. Right, that's a big deal with them. 422 00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:44,920 Speaker 1: Can Derrick Henry go out and get four hunder touches 423 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:46,760 Speaker 1: again this year? That's the thing is they need to 424 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:50,480 Speaker 1: Henry and Julio have to be themselves and that's they're 425 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:52,560 Speaker 1: not the only team in that boat. But there's nothing 426 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:56,640 Speaker 1: behind either one. And they're a little scary. Yeah, they're 427 00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 1: a little scary. It could be a house of cards 428 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:02,440 Speaker 1: that kind of topples. They haven't drafted well lately. They've 429 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:06,240 Speaker 1: been high risk draft injured guys. And they just cut 430 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 1: their fourth round picked yesterday. I mean that doesn't sound 431 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:13,160 Speaker 1: like a big deal. But ride receiver Fitzpatrick from Louisville. Yeah, 432 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 1: I mean we thought he might be the number three guy. 433 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:19,399 Speaker 1: He gets cut, you know they've question. Yeah, it was 434 00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:21,920 Speaker 1: a little bit of a breach, but yeah, you're you're right, 435 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,640 Speaker 1: and really it wasn't a team yet, but still Isaiah 436 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,640 Speaker 1: Wilson and you know they've made some errors. Yeah, they're 437 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:29,440 Speaker 1: Richie team, you know. I mean you've already dumped the 438 00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:33,040 Speaker 1: Dory Jackson, you let Johnnie Smith walk. I mean there's 439 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:36,480 Speaker 1: there's some pick up Corey Davis or Jack Conklin's with 440 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:38,879 Speaker 1: your options some of them are you doing? What are 441 00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:42,840 Speaker 1: you're spending your money on? Yeah? Exactly, So they could 442 00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:46,360 Speaker 1: be really good. If they're really good, I bet they're 443 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:48,320 Speaker 1: on this list next year and say, boy, they had 444 00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:49,560 Speaker 1: a lot of good luck. They got a lot of 445 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 1: fumble luck and win one score games and stuff like that. 446 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,280 Speaker 1: Because I don't know the foundation is great. I don't 447 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,080 Speaker 1: know that it is either. Um. I mixed feelings about 448 00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 1: Raybele as a coach too. I like them, um, but 449 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:04,040 Speaker 1: I think he's a tier two or three coach, not 450 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:10,960 Speaker 1: definitely not tier one. You mentioned the Patriots. Um, obviously 451 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:12,919 Speaker 1: they made the decision to go with mac Jones as 452 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:16,119 Speaker 1: their starter. Does that change their win out look for 453 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:19,640 Speaker 1: you as opposed to him with Cam a little? In that? 454 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:23,560 Speaker 1: I think stability is important. You know that even if 455 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 1: they would have picked mac Jones and not cut Cam, 456 00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:30,119 Speaker 1: he'd still be looming and things don't go well, you 457 00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:33,840 Speaker 1: can go back to them and they're just such different quarterbacks. 458 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:37,520 Speaker 1: Sort of the same with Denver, except Denver it really 459 00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,000 Speaker 1: doesn't have a quarterback or I think New England might. 460 00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:46,400 Speaker 1: Um doesn't change it dramatically. I think it's if you're 461 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:48,959 Speaker 1: a Pats fan, you're pretty happy that they showed that 462 00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:52,359 Speaker 1: much confidence in the first round pick. And he's supported 463 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:55,680 Speaker 1: with the defense in a running game because Stefan Gilmore 464 00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,200 Speaker 1: is not gonna play. I think the defense we middle 465 00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:00,240 Speaker 1: the road issue. I mean, they're they're gonna start Alan 466 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:03,119 Speaker 1: Mills is their other cornerback corner problems too right now, 467 00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:04,960 Speaker 1: which is not how they're built, and that's not what 468 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:07,560 Speaker 1: he was signed to do either. No, you're right, and 469 00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:09,679 Speaker 1: we both said, I mean, the receivers are still at 470 00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:12,840 Speaker 1: the bottom league in my opinion, and they overspend on them, 471 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,080 Speaker 1: but that decided. The only thing I think that they 472 00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:17,600 Speaker 1: have going in their favor is their easy schedule. Their 473 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 1: schedule is very favorable and in Belichick, yeah, I mean 474 00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,240 Speaker 1: that's a great asset. There's no question. Um. This is 475 00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:28,520 Speaker 1: interesting to me too. Shieldkipedia rights for the athletic and 476 00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,280 Speaker 1: he's sort of a Barnwell type. It means very analytically 477 00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:35,480 Speaker 1: um correct and knowledgeable. And I've read a lot of 478 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:38,000 Speaker 1: this stuff lately on predictions for the year and whatnot. 479 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:43,680 Speaker 1: And he did an extensive study on first round quarterbacks 480 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,600 Speaker 1: that are opening let's start their rookie year and where 481 00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,520 Speaker 1: they end up and it's all said and done and 482 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,120 Speaker 1: on average over like the last year, I think it's 483 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,679 Speaker 1: been ten years, so there was a pretty good sample size. 484 00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,199 Speaker 1: And this applies to the Steelers maybe next year. You know, 485 00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:00,680 Speaker 1: like if you start a rookie quarterback, I don't even 486 00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:03,400 Speaker 1: actually Dak Prescott count so it doesn't even mean first rounders. 487 00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:06,840 Speaker 1: If you start a rookie quarterback, on average, he's the 488 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:10,840 Speaker 1: twenty three best quarterback in the league. Which that's what 489 00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:13,159 Speaker 1: Too was last year. Everyone said to his steaks it 490 00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,440 Speaker 1: was about the twenty three best quarterback in the league, 491 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:17,800 Speaker 1: you know, so it was slightly below average of what 492 00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:21,000 Speaker 1: rookies do. Herbert was Herbert and Dac were two that 493 00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:22,800 Speaker 1: broke the mold. They were in the top ten. You know. 494 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,760 Speaker 1: Of course there's exceptions, and there's also Josh Rosens, who 495 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:29,320 Speaker 1: was right, you know what I mean. So I don't 496 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:31,320 Speaker 1: think it's unrealistic. And that's where I'm going with this 497 00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,919 Speaker 1: is I bet Mac Jones is about the twenty three 498 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,879 Speaker 1: best quarterback in the league. Probably not make a lot 499 00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,359 Speaker 1: of mistakes, not make a lot of big throws, be 500 00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 1: the average of rookie starting quarterbacks. It puts a lot 501 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,399 Speaker 1: of pressure on Bill to get you to ten wins 502 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,240 Speaker 1: or whatever. You know what I mean, Yeah, it's it's 503 00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:51,480 Speaker 1: kind of I know Steeler fans are looking at just 504 00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 1: they have concerns here, They have concerns here. There every 505 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:58,800 Speaker 1: team in the league has concerns. There's no complete team. 506 00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:02,160 Speaker 1: Tampa looks complete, but they were also the healthiest team 507 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 1: in the right last year. There's some things looking at 508 00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:10,800 Speaker 1: them in the face. Get year old quarterback, nothing behind him, right, 509 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,480 Speaker 1: I mean he's coming off a knee injury too, And yeah, 510 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:17,160 Speaker 1: they were remarkably healthy last year and they could probably 511 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,119 Speaker 1: weather it because they have a very easy schedule and 512 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:21,800 Speaker 1: they're in good shape. But the weather be him without 513 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:25,359 Speaker 1: Brady for six weeks. No, right, right, I mean no, 514 00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 1: you're right. I mean everyone focuses so much on the Steelers, 515 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:30,919 Speaker 1: which is great and that's what we're here to do. 516 00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:34,560 Speaker 1: But if we focus on other teams, that'd be at 517 00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,720 Speaker 1: least as many concerns with nine out of ten of them. Yeah, 518 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,919 Speaker 1: I agree, I agree. So that's gonna do it for 519 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,560 Speaker 1: this segment. So for my partner Matt Williams for Jacob 520 00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:45,600 Speaker 1: Breck here on site keeping us on the air, I'm 521 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,200 Speaker 1: Dale Lalley. We thank you for listening to this edition 522 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 1: of the Drive on Steelers Nation Radio