WEBVTT - Daybreak Weekend: US CPI, Cannes Festival, Bessent Visits Japan

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the

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<v Speaker 2>top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors

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<v Speaker 2>all around the world. Straight Ahead on the program, we

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<v Speaker 2>look to some key inflation data in the US. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>Nathan Hager in Washington.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Caroline Hebgin London, where we discuss whether the Can

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<v Speaker 3>Film Festival can galvanize the business of cinema.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm Doug Prisner, looking ahead to US Treasury Secretary Scott

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<v Speaker 4>Besson's visit to Japan.

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<v Speaker 1>That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>eleven three yeh New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg ninety two nine, Boston, DAB Digital Radio, London, Syrias,

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<v Speaker 1>XM one twenty one, and around the world on Bloomberg Radio,

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<v Speaker 1>dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App.

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<v Speaker 2>Good day to you. I'm Nathan Hager. We begin today's

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<v Speaker 2>program with some key economic data in the US. The

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<v Speaker 2>April reading on consumer prices comes out on Tuesday. Then

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<v Speaker 2>we'll get a look at inflation pressures on business in

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<v Speaker 2>the Producer Price Index Wednesday and then we'll see how

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<v Speaker 2>the consumer is holding up when April retail sales come

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<v Speaker 2>out Thursday, a busy week for Edward Harrison, senior editor

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<v Speaker 2>for Bloomberg News and author of the Everything Risk newsletter.

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<v Speaker 2>Really pleased that Ed's got some time to join us here.

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<v Speaker 5>Now.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm sure I'm not the only one who sees inflation

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<v Speaker 2>pressure just driving by the gas station every day. Ed,

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<v Speaker 2>Is this the month we're going to see Iran war

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<v Speaker 2>impacts show up in the data?

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<v Speaker 6>Hey, Nathan, Yes, I think this is the month. The

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<v Speaker 6>real question is is whether or not it shows up

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<v Speaker 6>less or more than is expected. Because you know, if

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<v Speaker 6>you look at the numbers on the Bloomberg terminal, we

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<v Speaker 6>had three point three last month. Expected for this month

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<v Speaker 6>year over year for cpis three point seven percent, and

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<v Speaker 6>they also expect a two point six percent core number

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<v Speaker 6>to go up to two point seven percent. So it's

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<v Speaker 6>definitely baked into the cake, not only that gas prices

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<v Speaker 6>will cause a big jump in the CPI year or

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<v Speaker 6>a year, but that it will translate into something overall

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<v Speaker 6>in terms of the core CPI. And so ultimately the

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<v Speaker 6>question is do we get more or do we get

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<v Speaker 6>less than what's expected?

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<v Speaker 2>How much would you expect that something like energy prices

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<v Speaker 2>would feed into the core. It is something that can

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<v Speaker 2>have an overall impact, can it when you think about

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<v Speaker 2>diesel prices and the effect on shipping as.

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<v Speaker 6>Well, right, definitely. And you know, we see all sorts

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<v Speaker 6>of different effects of helium prices having an effect on

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<v Speaker 6>electronics because of the use of helium in large disk

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<v Speaker 6>drives that drive the AI build out. You know that

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<v Speaker 6>they use these disk drives potentially for AI and all

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<v Speaker 6>sorts of other things. What I would say is is

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<v Speaker 6>that if you look at PCE, which is based off

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<v Speaker 6>of personal consumption, the price increase there that index was

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<v Speaker 6>three point two percent year over year. We got that

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<v Speaker 6>a couple of weeks ago, and that's the number that

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<v Speaker 6>the FED looks at. Three point two percent is really high.

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<v Speaker 6>And so what it says is is that we're already

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<v Speaker 6>at a high level. If the increase in energy prices

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<v Speaker 6>adds to that, then it's going to be a very

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<v Speaker 6>tough road for the for the Federal Reserve ahead and

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<v Speaker 6>for interest rates overall.

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<v Speaker 2>And how do you expect that to feed into what

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<v Speaker 2>we could get from the producer price side as well?

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<v Speaker 2>When those numbers come out.

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<v Speaker 6>That's where where I think the market and I both

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<v Speaker 6>expect to see the big jumps. So the numbers were

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<v Speaker 6>pretty large already. You had three point eight percent in March.

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<v Speaker 6>They're expecting four point three percent core. This is not

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<v Speaker 6>including food and energy, so you can see those are

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<v Speaker 6>huge numbers even if you don't include food and energy,

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<v Speaker 6>and if you did include food and energy, then you've

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<v Speaker 6>got a four point zero going up to four point

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<v Speaker 6>eight percent to be expected. So almost five percent increase

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<v Speaker 6>in producer prices in the month of April.

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<v Speaker 2>So potentially even bigger price increases on the producer side

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<v Speaker 2>than on the consumer. Do you expect to see some

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<v Speaker 2>of that feeding in to what consumers see the idea

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<v Speaker 2>that producers might be able to pass along some of

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<v Speaker 2>their price pressures onto the consumer.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I think. You know it's with the tariffs. It

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<v Speaker 6>was unknown whether or not they would be legal, and

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<v Speaker 6>we've seen that they've been struck down by various courts

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<v Speaker 6>now here. You you know that these even though it's temporary,

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<v Speaker 6>you know that the price pressures are for real and

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<v Speaker 6>you must pass them through. And so to the degree

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<v Speaker 6>that companies can pass them through, they're definitely going to

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<v Speaker 6>do that, and then the question becomes, you know, how

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<v Speaker 6>much can the consumer handle?

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<v Speaker 2>And I guess we'll get some answers on that potentially

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<v Speaker 2>in the Thursday retail sales print for the month of April.

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<v Speaker 2>Are you expecting to see any shifts in consumer behavior

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<v Speaker 2>reflected in those numbers?

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<v Speaker 6>Yes, I think that you know the expectation from the market.

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<v Speaker 6>In particular, the ultimate number to look for is the

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<v Speaker 6>control group. That's the number for retail sales that the

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<v Speaker 6>market uses to say this is the best number to

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<v Speaker 6>look at in terms of the go forward approach, and

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<v Speaker 6>that number is expected to decline to zero point four

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<v Speaker 6>percent from zero point seven percent. If you take out autos,

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<v Speaker 6>you go from zero point six percent also to zero

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<v Speaker 6>point four percent. Those are decent numbers, but when you

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<v Speaker 6>take away inflation, it really adds up on a year

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<v Speaker 6>of a year basis to you know, a mid lean economy.

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<v Speaker 6>Anything lower starts to become very difficult, and then you

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<v Speaker 6>start worrying about economic growth.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, again, really appreciate your insights ahead of all this data.

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<v Speaker 2>That is Edward Harrison, senior editor for Bloomberg News. Check

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<v Speaker 2>out all his work on the Everything Risk newsletter. You

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<v Speaker 2>can find it at Bloomberg dot com Slash newsletters. Let's

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<v Speaker 2>take a look now add some stocks making news in

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<v Speaker 2>the week ahead. I'm Nathan Hager, joined by Bloomberg Markets

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<v Speaker 2>Live Managing Editor Christine Aquino with more earnings on TEP

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<v Speaker 2>this week starting Monday with Hymns and Hers Health. Weren't

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<v Speaker 2>they going to beef with Nova Nordisk recently, Christine? How

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<v Speaker 2>are things in telehealth these days?

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<v Speaker 7>That beef though, is a thing of the past, because

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<v Speaker 7>they're cooperating with each other now, right, And so that

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<v Speaker 7>is one of the reasons why the likes of JP

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<v Speaker 7>Morgan initiated to stock with an overweight rating because of

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<v Speaker 7>that deal. So now before they had a beef, now

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<v Speaker 7>they have a partnership, and so Hyms and Hers will

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<v Speaker 7>be selling we govy on its platform, and JP Morgan

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<v Speaker 7>is saying that that deal could mark a turning point

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<v Speaker 7>and remove a significant legal overhang. So that bothes well

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<v Speaker 7>for its earnings potentially, and you know, we have options

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<v Speaker 7>of course, starting to price that potential move there, we

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<v Speaker 7>could see it potentially a thirteen percent move in the

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<v Speaker 7>share after the company reports earnings. And so if that

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<v Speaker 7>is all fine and dandy, they meet or beat estimates,

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<v Speaker 7>then that could be a thirteen percent share move higher,

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<v Speaker 7>but otherwise it could be a thirteen percent share move lower.

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<v Speaker 7>So we'll see about that.

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<v Speaker 8>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I mean this stock has already been doing pretty

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<v Speaker 2>well so far this year, hasn't it. I mean, where

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<v Speaker 2>is the bar when it comes to what investors want

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<v Speaker 2>to see from Hymns this time around?

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah? I mean, of course, the demand for the GLP

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<v Speaker 7>ones very much still sustaining the business model here. And

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<v Speaker 7>I think the fact that you know, they are able

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<v Speaker 7>to pivot because potentially, you know, they're now in cooperation

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<v Speaker 7>with Novo and so they're kind of turning themselves from

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<v Speaker 7>a competitor into a retailer in that space, and so,

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<v Speaker 7>you know, I think investors will want to see is

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<v Speaker 7>that business model working, how much kind of gains could

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<v Speaker 7>they expect from that sort of partnership. Is it something

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<v Speaker 7>that could potentially also open up opportunities with other GLP

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<v Speaker 7>one manufacturers and sellers in the market, Right, And so yeah,

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<v Speaker 7>for Hymns and Hers, it's going to be a question

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<v Speaker 7>of how well are they able to pivot after this

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<v Speaker 7>initial legal setback.

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<v Speaker 2>I guess we could call Hymns and Her sort of

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<v Speaker 2>tech adjacent, right, because this is going to be kind

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<v Speaker 2>of a busy week for tech earnings overall. We're going

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<v Speaker 2>to hear from Applied Materials on Thursday. This has been

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<v Speaker 2>a pretty crazy quarter for chip makers. Where are we

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<v Speaker 2>expecting chip equipment makers.

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<v Speaker 6>To stack well?

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<v Speaker 7>Based on the movement in the semicondaractor is index that

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<v Speaker 7>we've seen, I mean, I think it's all going to

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<v Speaker 7>be positive, So potentially high expectations for the earnings for

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<v Speaker 7>Applied Materials here, and you know the options data that

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<v Speaker 7>we're seeing at the moment implying about a six percent

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<v Speaker 7>move After those results, we have seen a spate of

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<v Speaker 7>analyst moves for the stock, ubs raising its price target

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<v Speaker 7>to four hundred and eighty from four hundred and thirty previously,

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<v Speaker 7>Seaport Global Securities giving Applied Materials a new by rating

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<v Speaker 7>and a five hundred dollars price target. So it looks

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<v Speaker 7>like a lot of expectations very positive, especially because of

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<v Speaker 7>all the optimism that we've seen in the chip space

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<v Speaker 7>and our own bloomering intelligence analysts weighing in as well,

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<v Speaker 7>and they're looking for sales and fiscal second quarter finishing

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<v Speaker 7>higher and also similar gains for operating profits. So it

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<v Speaker 7>looks like there's going to be a lot of positivity

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<v Speaker 7>baked in. We'll see if they can deliver on that.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean you could say that there's a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>positivity baked in already. I mean, this stock is serious

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<v Speaker 2>double digits on the year so far. Is it priced

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<v Speaker 2>to perfection?

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<v Speaker 7>I mean, that is definitely the worry every time we

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<v Speaker 7>see such big gains like these, Nathan, I mean, you

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<v Speaker 7>always have the naysayers in the market right saying that

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<v Speaker 7>this can possibly keep going at nauseum. But just you know,

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<v Speaker 7>if you look at kind of the plans of the

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<v Speaker 7>biggest hyper scalers when it comes to their cap x, right,

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<v Speaker 7>the likes of your alphabets, your Amazon's, your Apples, it

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<v Speaker 7>seems like there is never ending demand at the moment

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<v Speaker 7>for any equipment, any infrastructure related to AI and the

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<v Speaker 7>data center buildout, and so you know, in some ways

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<v Speaker 7>it could be priced perfection, but it may be a

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<v Speaker 7>while yet before we actually see that pullback in stock.

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<v Speaker 2>Speaking of the AI build out, we are going to

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<v Speaker 2>hear from another beneficiary of that phenomenon on Wednesday when

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<v Speaker 2>Cisco Systems reports. What are we expecting from Cisco.

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<v Speaker 7>Absolutely, Nathan, Well, you know, a similarly positive thing our

0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:05.360
<v Speaker 7>blooming intelligence analysts saying that they're focusing primarily on Cisco's

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<v Speaker 7>optical and high capacity networking products and that has benefited

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<v Speaker 7>from the AI infrastructure ramp up. As you've mentioned, the

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<v Speaker 7>expectation is for that to keep benefiting from that, and

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<v Speaker 7>specifically for Cisco, that could result in an increase to

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<v Speaker 7>about five billion dollars and its AI order outlooks so

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<v Speaker 7>not too shabby for the stock, and that's really helped

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<v Speaker 7>shield it as well from the software pessimism that we've

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<v Speaker 7>seen in the start of the year, right because they're

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<v Speaker 7>very much levered to that build out that we've seen

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<v Speaker 7>in Given the demand for anything related to that, both

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<v Speaker 7>hardware and software, seems like it could be a positive

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<v Speaker 7>season for Cisco once again.

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<v Speaker 2>I guess one other question is whether Cisco is shielded

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<v Speaker 2>from the hit we've seen from memory costs from so

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<v Speaker 2>many of these companies that have reported so far.

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, absolutely, definitely something that investors are going to be

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<v Speaker 7>watching out for. You know, how much of their margins

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<v Speaker 7>are they going to be able to protect as costs

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<v Speaker 7>rise in whether that a shortage is set to continue.

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<v Speaker 7>Is there supply chain something that is relatively insulated from

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<v Speaker 7>that dynamic, or is it something that they're going to

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<v Speaker 7>have to contend with as well. So I'm sure that

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<v Speaker 7>investors going to be looking out for any comments from

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<v Speaker 7>the company from their CEO during the analysts call. For sure, the.

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<v Speaker 2>Tech earning story continues. Thanks Christine, great having you on

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<v Speaker 2>with us. That's Bloomberg Markets Live, Managing Editor Christine Aquino,

0:12:37.320 --> 0:12:40.080
<v Speaker 2>and coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, we'll look to

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<v Speaker 2>the con Film Festival whether it can galvanize the new

0:12:43.840 --> 0:12:58.800
<v Speaker 2>cinema business. I'm Nathan Hager. This is Bloomberg. This is

0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:01.640
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Daybreak. We ad our global look ahead at the

0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:04.319
<v Speaker 2>top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm Nathan

0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:07.079
<v Speaker 2>Hager in Washington. Up later in our program, we'll look

0:13:07.120 --> 0:13:11.560
<v Speaker 2>ahead to Treasury Secretary Scott Besson's visit to Japan. But first,

0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:14.000
<v Speaker 2>in the coming days, the great and good of the

0:13:14.120 --> 0:13:16.840
<v Speaker 2>entertainment world will descend on the south of France for

0:13:16.920 --> 0:13:20.559
<v Speaker 2>the annual Cahn Film Festival. It's a well established hallmark

0:13:20.559 --> 0:13:23.959
<v Speaker 2>of the industry calendar, but in an AI driven landscape,

0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:27.480
<v Speaker 2>is the business of film still lucrative for more, Let's

0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:30.199
<v Speaker 2>go to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak europe anker

0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:32.040
<v Speaker 2>Caroline hepger Nathan.

0:13:32.080 --> 0:13:35.240
<v Speaker 3>The Can Film Festival is known for glitz and glamour

0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:38.320
<v Speaker 3>amid the palm trees of the south of France. The

0:13:38.400 --> 0:13:42.559
<v Speaker 3>nearly two week long event features beach parties, black tie affairs,

0:13:42.600 --> 0:13:46.400
<v Speaker 3>and plenty of celebrities, but outside of those trappings, the

0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:50.760
<v Speaker 3>movies shown behind closed doors are typically quite intense. The

0:13:50.880 --> 0:13:55.920
<v Speaker 3>Can lineup favors challenging works from important oteurs, and for

0:13:55.960 --> 0:13:59.160
<v Speaker 3>the critics and journalists working at the festival, that means

0:13:59.280 --> 0:14:04.120
<v Speaker 3>wrestling with those efforts, often on sometimes very little sleep.

0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:07.240
<v Speaker 3>Throughout the festival, the focus is on who might win

0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:11.200
<v Speaker 3>the palmdor the top prize given by the jury, an

0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:15.360
<v Speaker 3>impossible award to predict, but one that often contains clues

0:14:15.679 --> 0:14:19.920
<v Speaker 3>about the upcoming Oscars race at this point relatively far

0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:23.160
<v Speaker 3>away on the calendar, but it is true that the

0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:27.560
<v Speaker 3>whole event gets you excited about what's on the horizon. However,

0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:31.800
<v Speaker 3>outside the sparkling world of the stars and the premieres,

0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:37.440
<v Speaker 3>audience interest in traditional cinema going has generally declined compared

0:14:37.480 --> 0:14:41.400
<v Speaker 3>to pre pandemic levels, with many blaming the cost and

0:14:41.480 --> 0:14:45.360
<v Speaker 3>the dominance of home streaming preserving the industry as a

0:14:45.440 --> 0:14:50.360
<v Speaker 3>key concern for insiders View CEO Timothy Richards has been

0:14:50.400 --> 0:14:55.280
<v Speaker 3>discussing that issue on Bloomberg Television recently, saying that demand

0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:56.440
<v Speaker 3>is returning.

0:14:56.960 --> 0:15:01.040
<v Speaker 9>The good news is business is back. The demand. Our

0:15:01.040 --> 0:15:04.160
<v Speaker 9>customer has never left us, but business is back right now.

0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:06.440
<v Speaker 9>And if you look at what happened with Michael opening

0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:10.160
<v Speaker 9>weekend two hundred and seventeen million dollars, Devilware's product is

0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:13.760
<v Speaker 9>going to be very, very similar in terms of how

0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:17.760
<v Speaker 9>for consolidation. It is fragmented, and it has been fragmented

0:15:17.760 --> 0:15:20.600
<v Speaker 9>for quite a while. And I think everyone's been waiting

0:15:20.600 --> 0:15:23.840
<v Speaker 9>for business to return before they actually took that first step.

0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:28.000
<v Speaker 9>The contrarian investors are too late. We're back, But.

0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:30.600
<v Speaker 10>Tim, I mean, you need content first and foremost. So

0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:33.520
<v Speaker 10>we'll talk about ticket pricing and AI and how you

0:15:33.560 --> 0:15:35.760
<v Speaker 10>manage cues and staff, but you need content. Do you

0:15:35.800 --> 0:15:38.040
<v Speaker 10>worry there's going to be less content out there, less

0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:39.720
<v Speaker 10>films being made because of the merger.

0:15:39.960 --> 0:15:42.920
<v Speaker 9>Yeah. Look, I think my biggest concern is demand, and

0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:45.360
<v Speaker 9>I think we've proven certainly in the last few years

0:15:45.440 --> 0:15:48.240
<v Speaker 9>that there is a massive demand for all movies of

0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:52.680
<v Speaker 9>all genres, for all demographics. We've broken records for all

0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:56.280
<v Speaker 9>kinds of movies. And if you look at Hamnet, Hannah

0:15:56.320 --> 0:15:58.280
<v Speaker 9>is going to do twenty million pounds in the UK.

0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:00.960
<v Speaker 9>So I worry about a man. Where there's a demand,

0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:03.400
<v Speaker 9>there's normally a supply will follow. If you look at

0:16:03.440 --> 0:16:06.000
<v Speaker 9>what's happened. And I'm fresh back from Las Vegas and

0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:09.200
<v Speaker 9>Cinema Coon and from meeting the studios in Los Angeles

0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:13.760
<v Speaker 9>after that, and the commitment to future filmmaking right now

0:16:14.520 --> 0:16:18.440
<v Speaker 9>with the Legacy studios is unprecedented. Then when you actually

0:16:18.560 --> 0:16:22.520
<v Speaker 9>look at the three biggest names in tech, Tim Cook,

0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:26.360
<v Speaker 9>Jeff Bezos, and David and Lariy Ellison, they've all now

0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:31.920
<v Speaker 9>embraced theatrical releases and film production. They're coming into our industry.

0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:36.320
<v Speaker 3>That was the view founder and CEO Timothy Richard speaking

0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:39.360
<v Speaker 3>there to Boomberg's frost sine laqua. So how are we

0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:43.120
<v Speaker 3>looking ahead to the upcoming can Film Festival? How can

0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:47.040
<v Speaker 3>the sector's leaders ensure the magic of La Croisette is

0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:51.720
<v Speaker 3>translated into the box office. Joining me now for more

0:16:51.920 --> 0:16:56.320
<v Speaker 3>is Bloomberg's Bunoir Bertolo, who is covering the festival this year, Well,

0:16:56.400 --> 0:16:59.720
<v Speaker 3>lucky you, Bunoir to be going to this big efferent

0:17:00.120 --> 0:17:04.480
<v Speaker 3>lots going on what normally happens at the can Film Festival.

0:17:05.720 --> 0:17:10.000
<v Speaker 11>So I guess the public facing side of the festival

0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:14.399
<v Speaker 11>is really the competition, So about twenty films that are

0:17:14.440 --> 0:17:18.080
<v Speaker 11>competing against each other to win the palmedor that's what

0:17:18.400 --> 0:17:21.639
<v Speaker 11>at the end of the festival. So it's really what

0:17:21.760 --> 0:17:26.400
<v Speaker 11>gets the attention because these are films that are carefully

0:17:26.400 --> 0:17:28.560
<v Speaker 11>selected that are going to be basically some of the

0:17:28.600 --> 0:17:32.280
<v Speaker 11>bigger films in the year to come when it comes

0:17:32.320 --> 0:17:37.159
<v Speaker 11>to release cinema, let's say, as an aard form. But

0:17:37.240 --> 0:17:39.680
<v Speaker 11>these are the most popular of the films that are

0:17:40.000 --> 0:17:43.080
<v Speaker 11>going to come out in the year to come. Yeah,

0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:46.359
<v Speaker 11>if we can sites blogbusters that are not typically shown

0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:50.720
<v Speaker 11>in gan So this is really the celebration of cinema

0:17:51.320 --> 0:17:55.480
<v Speaker 11>independent cinema as an aard form, and that's really the

0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:58.760
<v Speaker 11>main focus, let's say. But there is also a less

0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:02.480
<v Speaker 11>known side of the festival that's really the business side

0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:08.160
<v Speaker 11>really and it's to film market and it's happening underneath

0:18:08.480 --> 0:18:12.959
<v Speaker 11>the Pallete Festival in sort of an underground, very unglamorous

0:18:13.280 --> 0:18:18.880
<v Speaker 11>area where films are shown to movie professional distributors from

0:18:18.960 --> 0:18:21.200
<v Speaker 11>all over the world that are going to see films

0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:24.000
<v Speaker 11>yet to be released and decided they want to buy

0:18:24.040 --> 0:18:27.639
<v Speaker 11>it and show them in their countries. So it's really

0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:32.080
<v Speaker 11>the heart of the festival business wise, and it's also

0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:35.200
<v Speaker 11>a major thread of the festival because it's bringing tens

0:18:35.200 --> 0:18:38.720
<v Speaker 11>of thousands of film professionals to can every year.

0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:39.520
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:44.480
<v Speaker 3>Absolutely so in terms of the more glamorous side of things,

0:18:44.640 --> 0:18:47.720
<v Speaker 3>what are the big releases that perhaps we'll hear more

0:18:47.760 --> 0:18:48.840
<v Speaker 3>about for this year.

0:18:50.400 --> 0:18:55.600
<v Speaker 11>So it's an interesting year for the festival because for

0:18:55.760 --> 0:19:01.639
<v Speaker 11>while there was no US films selected in competing. Meanwhile,

0:19:01.840 --> 0:19:05.840
<v Speaker 11>one film has been added by James Gray, so that's

0:19:05.880 --> 0:19:09.480
<v Speaker 11>going to be a film that's going to be very expected,

0:19:09.600 --> 0:19:16.000
<v Speaker 11>I think, with Scarlett Johnson and Adam Driver featuring in

0:19:16.080 --> 0:19:18.000
<v Speaker 11>the film. We don't know a lot about it yet,

0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:21.040
<v Speaker 11>but that's going to be a point of attention. And

0:19:21.080 --> 0:19:24.280
<v Speaker 11>then there is this mix of filmmakers from all over

0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:29.600
<v Speaker 11>the world. Three films from Spain that I'm especially looking

0:19:29.640 --> 0:19:35.879
<v Speaker 11>forward to went by Rodegoyen, another one about the civil

0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:38.960
<v Speaker 11>war in Spain. It's a lot of films inspired by

0:19:39.000 --> 0:19:41.760
<v Speaker 11>the wars. Actually, the Second World War theme is going

0:19:41.840 --> 0:19:48.520
<v Speaker 11>to be very strong films from friends as well Asian

0:19:48.560 --> 0:19:51.120
<v Speaker 11>films like it. It's really a mix. And there are

0:19:51.520 --> 0:19:56.240
<v Speaker 11>some favorites of CAN that are coming every time the

0:19:56.400 --> 0:19:59.280
<v Speaker 11>selector film basically, and that's one of the criticism of

0:19:59.280 --> 0:20:03.760
<v Speaker 11>the fistival is you know they've got their favorites and

0:20:04.080 --> 0:20:08.000
<v Speaker 11>they would come whatever film the release. But truth is,

0:20:08.040 --> 0:20:11.920
<v Speaker 11>you know that they are carefully selected. And what's really

0:20:11.920 --> 0:20:14.560
<v Speaker 11>interesting is we don't know yet because these has not

0:20:14.680 --> 0:20:18.000
<v Speaker 11>been seen by anyone. We don't know yet which film

0:20:18.080 --> 0:20:19.879
<v Speaker 11>is going to create the buzz and which film is

0:20:19.880 --> 0:20:21.639
<v Speaker 11>going to come out with the big O L.

0:20:22.280 --> 0:20:25.360
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's the excitement, isn't it. And the paland'ah, as

0:20:25.359 --> 0:20:28.359
<v Speaker 3>you say, is the crown jewel of the proceedings and

0:20:28.400 --> 0:20:30.520
<v Speaker 3>who might clinch that? I mean, I noticed that it's

0:20:30.560 --> 0:20:34.160
<v Speaker 3>the old boy director Park Chan Wook, who is leading

0:20:34.240 --> 0:20:37.400
<v Speaker 3>the jury that makes the selection for who is awarded

0:20:37.440 --> 0:20:41.800
<v Speaker 3>the pandor what's it like then to win that accolade?

0:20:41.920 --> 0:20:42.080
<v Speaker 6>You know?

0:20:42.119 --> 0:20:45.320
<v Speaker 3>How important is it? I mean you say the criticism

0:20:45.400 --> 0:20:48.440
<v Speaker 3>is that there are sometimes favorites that CAN, but how

0:20:48.480 --> 0:20:50.000
<v Speaker 3>important is it to win the Panda.

0:20:51.119 --> 0:20:54.399
<v Speaker 11>It's absolutely major for a film because it's going to

0:20:54.560 --> 0:21:00.560
<v Speaker 11>launch that film into this season that's coming. Basically, Ken

0:21:00.640 --> 0:21:02.640
<v Speaker 11>is always seen at the first event of the year

0:21:02.680 --> 0:21:05.320
<v Speaker 11>in terms of awards and in terms of films that

0:21:05.359 --> 0:21:07.479
<v Speaker 11>are going to be seen for the full years. So

0:21:08.240 --> 0:21:11.520
<v Speaker 11>very often the films that are selected for the palmudor

0:21:11.680 --> 0:21:14.840
<v Speaker 11>but also the major top prices, right the best scenario,

0:21:15.119 --> 0:21:18.840
<v Speaker 11>best director or best actor. These films they are going

0:21:18.920 --> 0:21:22.440
<v Speaker 11>to be every year we see that they're going to

0:21:22.560 --> 0:21:26.280
<v Speaker 11>be launched into the award season and they can make

0:21:26.320 --> 0:21:28.679
<v Speaker 11>it to the Oscars in the end. And that's what

0:21:28.760 --> 0:21:32.720
<v Speaker 11>happened with The Substance, for example, that was a very

0:21:32.760 --> 0:21:36.600
<v Speaker 11>small film that made it to the Oscars and got

0:21:36.680 --> 0:21:40.200
<v Speaker 11>five nominations. I think with Demi Moore, comeback of Demi Moore,

0:21:40.800 --> 0:21:43.159
<v Speaker 11>I think that was extremely interesting and she's going to

0:21:43.160 --> 0:21:44.760
<v Speaker 11>be part of the jury this year.

0:21:44.880 --> 0:21:48.760
<v Speaker 3>Interestingly, I think that's really interesting. Also that I mean

0:21:48.880 --> 0:21:53.199
<v Speaker 3>Can is also the big you know, film festival in Europe,

0:21:53.240 --> 0:21:56.520
<v Speaker 3>even kind of bigger than Berlin and Venice. So interesting

0:21:56.560 --> 0:21:58.600
<v Speaker 3>that you say it's such a launch pad then maybe

0:21:58.680 --> 0:22:02.119
<v Speaker 3>into a bigger market into the US. But I have

0:22:02.200 --> 0:22:04.480
<v Speaker 3>to say that in the backdrop of this, you know,

0:22:04.560 --> 0:22:10.359
<v Speaker 3>talking about these individual movies, these small budget movies, maybe

0:22:10.400 --> 0:22:14.200
<v Speaker 3>that get bigger. The backdrop in the industry is surely

0:22:14.520 --> 0:22:18.880
<v Speaker 3>artificial intelligence and maybe movies that are emerging in that space.

0:22:18.920 --> 0:22:20.680
<v Speaker 3>Do you think CAN is going to be a buzz

0:22:21.040 --> 0:22:22.960
<v Speaker 3>with chatter about AI films?

0:22:24.280 --> 0:22:27.680
<v Speaker 11>It is every year and increasingly a topic in CAN,

0:22:27.800 --> 0:22:35.240
<v Speaker 11>of course, as it is across the industry. Really interestingly, interestingly,

0:22:35.320 --> 0:22:40.439
<v Speaker 11>there is one film that's that's using open eyes technology

0:22:40.680 --> 0:22:44.080
<v Speaker 11>that's going to be shown to bios in CAN this year.

0:22:44.200 --> 0:22:47.240
<v Speaker 11>It's called The Critters and it's an animation film that

0:22:47.320 --> 0:22:49.520
<v Speaker 11>we're not going to see yet, it's not finished yet,

0:22:49.640 --> 0:22:53.280
<v Speaker 11>but it's going to be shown to potential bios. So

0:22:53.320 --> 0:22:56.560
<v Speaker 11>that's one example of one film, a feature film that's

0:22:56.560 --> 0:22:59.480
<v Speaker 11>going to use AI a lot that we're going to

0:22:59.480 --> 0:23:03.240
<v Speaker 11>see in the coming months probably, And and of course

0:23:03.520 --> 0:23:07.280
<v Speaker 11>it's it's always a chatter in CAN. You would see

0:23:07.280 --> 0:23:12.480
<v Speaker 11>panels this year about what AI means for cinema as

0:23:12.520 --> 0:23:16.440
<v Speaker 11>a creative tool, what it means for the ip of

0:23:16.800 --> 0:23:22.520
<v Speaker 11>the actors and directors that are sort of prompted and

0:23:22.960 --> 0:23:26.240
<v Speaker 11>that are sort of used in AI prompts. So what

0:23:26.320 --> 0:23:30.080
<v Speaker 11>does it mean in terms of rights for them, So

0:23:30.119 --> 0:23:32.960
<v Speaker 11>it touches on the creative side, on the business side,

0:23:33.640 --> 0:23:38.040
<v Speaker 11>and all this also happening on the backdrop of the

0:23:38.040 --> 0:23:41.639
<v Speaker 11>sort of difficult moment, a moment of crisis really for

0:23:41.720 --> 0:23:46.160
<v Speaker 11>the cinema industry since COVID, the theaters have not seen

0:23:46.760 --> 0:23:52.640
<v Speaker 11>the same level of of tickets sold really doing during

0:23:52.720 --> 0:23:57.119
<v Speaker 11>the pandemic. People have grown us to see films on

0:23:58.000 --> 0:24:02.160
<v Speaker 11>their home screen a hole and so it's ataly also

0:24:02.240 --> 0:24:05.840
<v Speaker 11>one of the big thread every year. You can it's

0:24:05.880 --> 0:24:10.760
<v Speaker 11>really how well the industry is doing. We are talking

0:24:10.800 --> 0:24:16.080
<v Speaker 11>about these very art, outhouse films that can make it

0:24:16.320 --> 0:24:20.800
<v Speaker 11>two bigger markets sometimes. But there is also the huge

0:24:20.840 --> 0:24:25.639
<v Speaker 11>category is blockbusters. These are really carrying the cinema industry worldwide,

0:24:25.760 --> 0:24:29.520
<v Speaker 11>the big Hollywood blockbusters. Before the pandemic, you could see

0:24:29.520 --> 0:24:32.400
<v Speaker 11>one or two of these every month. It's really not

0:24:32.440 --> 0:24:36.439
<v Speaker 11>the case anymore. The studios are making less bets on

0:24:36.880 --> 0:24:41.400
<v Speaker 11>big films and we can see Devil were two currently

0:24:41.480 --> 0:24:44.040
<v Speaker 11>making big numbers, for example, But there are few words

0:24:44.040 --> 0:24:47.840
<v Speaker 11>of these films every year, and interestingly, no big blockbuster

0:24:47.960 --> 0:24:50.720
<v Speaker 11>will have a premiere in can this year. Last year

0:24:51.400 --> 0:24:55.399
<v Speaker 11>we saw Mission impossible premiering and it was a bigger

0:24:55.440 --> 0:24:58.520
<v Speaker 11>than than a big bus and this way this year,

0:24:58.640 --> 0:25:01.840
<v Speaker 11>it's kind of a snub for the big US studios

0:25:01.880 --> 0:25:04.400
<v Speaker 11>and none of these are going to show it. Befeling Kenn.

0:25:04.480 --> 0:25:07.760
<v Speaker 11>So it's also signed that there's no film that's ready

0:25:08.040 --> 0:25:12.760
<v Speaker 11>to be shown in ghen this year. So it's really

0:25:13.359 --> 0:25:15.600
<v Speaker 11>also the business backdrop of the festival, and it's how

0:25:15.600 --> 0:25:17.240
<v Speaker 11>well the industry is doing.

0:25:18.000 --> 0:25:20.320
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's going to be very interesting, isn't it. Have

0:25:20.480 --> 0:25:23.280
<v Speaker 3>a wonderful time. I'm looking forward to reading some of

0:25:23.320 --> 0:25:27.240
<v Speaker 3>your reporting and your insights into the movie industry. Bloomberg's

0:25:27.240 --> 0:25:30.480
<v Speaker 3>Bernoit Bertolo. We will have full coverage of the can

0:25:30.600 --> 0:25:34.679
<v Speaker 3>film festivals, twists and turns on Bloomberg platforms in the

0:25:34.720 --> 0:25:37.840
<v Speaker 3>coming days. I'm Caroline Hebgar here in London and you

0:25:37.880 --> 0:25:41.040
<v Speaker 3>can catch us every weekday morning for Bloomberg Daybreak. You

0:25:41.080 --> 0:25:43.800
<v Speaker 3>at beginning at six am in London, that's one am

0:25:43.920 --> 0:25:44.720
<v Speaker 3>on Wall Street.

0:25:44.880 --> 0:25:48.879
<v Speaker 2>Nathan, Thanks Caroline, and coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend,

0:25:49.040 --> 0:25:51.960
<v Speaker 2>look at what you expect from Treasury Secretary Scott Besson's

0:25:52.000 --> 0:25:56.200
<v Speaker 2>visit to Japan. I'm Nathan Hagard and this is Bloomberg.

0:26:07.520 --> 0:26:10.480
<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look ahead at

0:26:10.560 --> 0:26:13.320
<v Speaker 2>the top stories for investors in the coming week. I'm

0:26:13.359 --> 0:26:17.280
<v Speaker 2>Nathan Hager in Washington. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant will spend

0:26:17.320 --> 0:26:20.800
<v Speaker 2>three days in Japan starting Monday. For a preview, Let's

0:26:20.800 --> 0:26:24.280
<v Speaker 2>get to Doug Krisner, host of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast.

0:26:24.840 --> 0:26:28.760
<v Speaker 4>Thanks. Nathan. Besant is reportedly expected to meet with Prime

0:26:28.800 --> 0:26:33.240
<v Speaker 4>Minister Sona etake Ichi, as well as Finance Minister Satsuki

0:26:33.280 --> 0:26:37.119
<v Speaker 4>Katayama and Bank of Japan Governor Kazu Awaita. Now the

0:26:37.200 --> 0:26:40.119
<v Speaker 4>NIKE is reporting these meetings will be held separately. For

0:26:40.200 --> 0:26:42.760
<v Speaker 4>a closer look at what Besant wants to address on

0:26:42.800 --> 0:26:46.119
<v Speaker 4>this trip, let's bring in Bloomberg's Molly Smith, who joins

0:26:46.200 --> 0:26:48.959
<v Speaker 4>us from our studio in the Japanese capital. Thank you

0:26:49.160 --> 0:26:51.879
<v Speaker 4>so much for making time. I understand that you're on

0:26:51.960 --> 0:26:55.800
<v Speaker 4>temporary assignment now as part of a Bloomberg News job swap,

0:26:56.440 --> 0:26:58.680
<v Speaker 4>and I know you're in the capital city. Before we

0:26:58.720 --> 0:27:02.560
<v Speaker 4>get into the stuff regarding the Treasury Secretary, I'm curious

0:27:02.560 --> 0:27:04.760
<v Speaker 4>to get your take on the overall economy right now

0:27:04.800 --> 0:27:07.800
<v Speaker 4>in Japan. I know inflation is a big issue. What's

0:27:07.840 --> 0:27:08.800
<v Speaker 4>the feeling right now?

0:27:09.520 --> 0:27:12.840
<v Speaker 8>You know, it's very interesting, Doug, coming from the US,

0:27:13.040 --> 0:27:15.680
<v Speaker 8>where I've been covering the economy for the last five

0:27:15.760 --> 0:27:19.160
<v Speaker 8>years to now being in Japan for a few months,

0:27:19.280 --> 0:27:23.080
<v Speaker 8>and as we know, inflation is, you know, really such

0:27:23.119 --> 0:27:25.960
<v Speaker 8>a deeply psychological phenomenon as much as it is a

0:27:26.000 --> 0:27:30.320
<v Speaker 8>financial one. And even though in the US, you know,

0:27:30.359 --> 0:27:34.919
<v Speaker 8>inflation was much more severe and long term than it

0:27:35.000 --> 0:27:38.240
<v Speaker 8>has been in Japan, I think it's still very much,

0:27:39.200 --> 0:27:42.520
<v Speaker 8>you know, it's very real here, and especially because the

0:27:42.600 --> 0:27:45.760
<v Speaker 8>country is coming off of really deflation for the last

0:27:45.800 --> 0:27:49.359
<v Speaker 8>thirty years, so to even have inflation of you know,

0:27:49.400 --> 0:27:51.600
<v Speaker 8>something in the one to two percent area like it

0:27:51.680 --> 0:27:56.240
<v Speaker 8>is now is still very meaningful after prices have been

0:27:56.280 --> 0:27:57.440
<v Speaker 8>falling for so long.

0:27:57.800 --> 0:28:00.440
<v Speaker 4>The three day Golden Week holiday just wrapped, and I'm

0:28:00.480 --> 0:28:05.320
<v Speaker 4>curious to get your take on how Japanese consumers responded,

0:28:05.320 --> 0:28:08.200
<v Speaker 4>whether they were engaged maybe doing a little bit of traveling,

0:28:08.720 --> 0:28:11.239
<v Speaker 4>spending a little bit at shops and restaurants, where they

0:28:11.320 --> 0:28:12.720
<v Speaker 4>engaged in activity at all.

0:28:13.240 --> 0:28:16.520
<v Speaker 8>I would say, anecdotally, from my perspective, it seemed that way.

0:28:17.080 --> 0:28:19.280
<v Speaker 8>You know, I'm fairly new to the country, so I

0:28:19.320 --> 0:28:22.360
<v Speaker 8>was trying to travel a bit in and around Tokyo

0:28:22.480 --> 0:28:27.280
<v Speaker 8>during that period where we had most of this past

0:28:27.320 --> 0:28:29.399
<v Speaker 8>week was a holiday as well as a day in

0:28:29.440 --> 0:28:33.520
<v Speaker 8>the previous week, so it definitely seems like people were

0:28:33.520 --> 0:28:38.120
<v Speaker 8>out and about and spending and engaging with shops and restaurants.

0:28:38.800 --> 0:28:42.480
<v Speaker 8>I haven't personally seen any high frequency data on it,

0:28:42.520 --> 0:28:45.080
<v Speaker 8>but definitely we'll be looking to when we get some

0:28:45.440 --> 0:28:50.120
<v Speaker 8>household spending figures in the next few months to confirm

0:28:50.160 --> 0:28:51.880
<v Speaker 8>that in the hard data for sure.

0:28:52.200 --> 0:28:55.240
<v Speaker 4>So let's get to Treasury Secretary Beson's visit in the

0:28:55.280 --> 0:28:58.080
<v Speaker 4>week ahead. Can you give me a sense of what

0:28:58.120 --> 0:29:00.000
<v Speaker 4>he is attempting to address here?

0:29:00.960 --> 0:29:04.400
<v Speaker 8>So so much has lately been about the yen weakness,

0:29:04.920 --> 0:29:09.360
<v Speaker 8>which authorities here are really trying to keep at bay

0:29:09.440 --> 0:29:11.600
<v Speaker 8>as much as they can. A lot of the speculative

0:29:11.640 --> 0:29:14.840
<v Speaker 8>trading in the currency market, and it seems like the

0:29:14.880 --> 0:29:19.680
<v Speaker 8>one sixty yen per dollar mark is really that unofficial

0:29:19.720 --> 0:29:22.760
<v Speaker 8>line in the sand of what they're trying to prevent

0:29:22.920 --> 0:29:25.800
<v Speaker 8>against it. That is really the test threshold of how

0:29:25.920 --> 0:29:29.160
<v Speaker 8>weak they're willing to let the end get or ideally

0:29:29.200 --> 0:29:32.760
<v Speaker 8>not to go beyond that. So we've had a few

0:29:33.920 --> 0:29:39.560
<v Speaker 8>suspected interventions in recent in about the past week here,

0:29:40.080 --> 0:29:43.480
<v Speaker 8>and it seems like that will definitely be a key

0:29:43.520 --> 0:29:48.480
<v Speaker 8>topic for Bessett to discuss, especially with the Finance minister

0:29:49.200 --> 0:29:52.480
<v Speaker 8>that they've been in very close contact because there are

0:29:52.800 --> 0:29:58.160
<v Speaker 8>these G seven agreements to keep your contacts abreast of

0:29:58.200 --> 0:30:00.600
<v Speaker 8>what is happening with your currencies so that you're not

0:30:00.800 --> 0:30:04.760
<v Speaker 8>labeled a currency manipulator. And also when a lot of

0:30:04.800 --> 0:30:09.120
<v Speaker 8>these interventions are carried out, it's usually done by selling

0:30:09.240 --> 0:30:13.719
<v Speaker 8>US treasuries in order to buy yet, so that's where

0:30:13.920 --> 0:30:16.479
<v Speaker 8>of course the US would have a vested interest in

0:30:17.120 --> 0:30:19.400
<v Speaker 8>how Japan is carrying out these moves.

0:30:19.640 --> 0:30:22.360
<v Speaker 4>So the other part of a stronger yen story would

0:30:22.400 --> 0:30:26.800
<v Speaker 4>obviously be a change in monetary policy. We were talking

0:30:26.800 --> 0:30:29.520
<v Speaker 4>a moment ago about inflation, and from what I understand,

0:30:30.440 --> 0:30:33.800
<v Speaker 4>real wages for Japanese workers in the month of March

0:30:33.880 --> 0:30:36.240
<v Speaker 4>rows for a third consecutive month, and I think the

0:30:36.320 --> 0:30:39.840
<v Speaker 4>numbers kind of would support the case for the BOJ

0:30:40.080 --> 0:30:42.680
<v Speaker 4>raising interest rates at the June meeting. Is that widely

0:30:42.760 --> 0:30:46.000
<v Speaker 4>expected and if we get a rate hike, is it

0:30:46.040 --> 0:30:48.720
<v Speaker 4>expected to have a meaningful impact on the currency.

0:30:49.680 --> 0:30:53.200
<v Speaker 8>So we are right now definitely expecting a hike at

0:30:53.200 --> 0:30:55.760
<v Speaker 8>the June meeting. Wouldn't say that that's because of the

0:30:55.800 --> 0:30:59.760
<v Speaker 8>wage data alone, though that definitely is a supporting factor

0:31:00.080 --> 0:31:04.280
<v Speaker 8>for it. And this is something that Uweita has you know,

0:31:04.360 --> 0:31:08.200
<v Speaker 8>at the meet that the BOJ meeting that policymakers just

0:31:08.280 --> 0:31:11.320
<v Speaker 8>wrapped up, he was a bit hesitant to send a

0:31:11.320 --> 0:31:15.280
<v Speaker 8>firmer signal that the June hike is coming. You know,

0:31:15.320 --> 0:31:17.800
<v Speaker 8>there were certainly some ways we could read into it.

0:31:18.160 --> 0:31:20.680
<v Speaker 8>You saw that the split in the vote. You know

0:31:20.720 --> 0:31:25.000
<v Speaker 8>that there were six policymakers who voted with the consensus

0:31:25.040 --> 0:31:28.360
<v Speaker 8>to hold rates steady, but there were three who dissented

0:31:28.480 --> 0:31:31.760
<v Speaker 8>in favor of raising interest rates. And also when the

0:31:31.800 --> 0:31:35.960
<v Speaker 8>bank laid out its projections for their outlook, a meaningful

0:31:36.160 --> 0:31:41.000
<v Speaker 8>increase in inflation expectations. So those two together would definitely

0:31:41.080 --> 0:31:45.480
<v Speaker 8>have signaled that there is reasonable belief that a hike

0:31:45.560 --> 0:31:48.040
<v Speaker 8>could be coming at the next meeting in June. And yes,

0:31:48.160 --> 0:31:51.080
<v Speaker 8>as you mentioned, the positive trend in real wages would

0:31:51.120 --> 0:31:52.280
<v Speaker 8>also be supportive of that.

0:31:52.720 --> 0:31:55.080
<v Speaker 4>So the elephant in the room, so to speak, when

0:31:55.200 --> 0:31:58.280
<v Speaker 4>Treasury Secretary Besant is in Tokyo is going to be

0:31:59.080 --> 0:32:02.719
<v Speaker 4>war in Iran. We know that Japan is a heavy

0:32:02.840 --> 0:32:08.600
<v Speaker 4>importer of crude oil and LNG, especially from the Middle East.

0:32:08.960 --> 0:32:12.120
<v Speaker 4>What's the feeling right now, what is the view that

0:32:12.160 --> 0:32:15.680
<v Speaker 4>people have in Japan on this conflict and what are

0:32:15.720 --> 0:32:18.640
<v Speaker 4>they having to deal with as a result of higher energy.

0:32:18.360 --> 0:32:21.360
<v Speaker 8>Cost Well, this is really one of the big reasons

0:32:21.360 --> 0:32:24.400
<v Speaker 8>why the yen is as weak as it is right now.

0:32:24.640 --> 0:32:27.160
<v Speaker 8>I mean, the other reason that you know, predated the

0:32:27.200 --> 0:32:31.000
<v Speaker 8>war and Iran is the interest rate differential, that that

0:32:31.320 --> 0:32:36.160
<v Speaker 8>US treasury yields are so much higher than Japanese government

0:32:36.200 --> 0:32:39.840
<v Speaker 8>bond yields are here, and that's also been contributing to

0:32:39.880 --> 0:32:42.440
<v Speaker 8>weakness in the end for a bit longer. But now

0:32:42.480 --> 0:32:46.080
<v Speaker 8>since Japan is such a heavy importer of crude oil

0:32:46.120 --> 0:32:49.880
<v Speaker 8>from the Middle East, that's also been weighing on the currency.

0:32:50.080 --> 0:32:54.360
<v Speaker 8>So it's really been just you know, more difficult adding

0:32:54.400 --> 0:32:57.120
<v Speaker 8>to like what's been you know, a real cost of

0:32:57.160 --> 0:33:02.120
<v Speaker 8>living increase here for the people of Japan, and that

0:33:02.400 --> 0:33:05.840
<v Speaker 8>there doesn't really seem to be much relief coming anytime

0:33:05.960 --> 0:33:08.920
<v Speaker 8>soon in that way, because the US hasn't really signaled

0:33:08.960 --> 0:33:13.320
<v Speaker 8>any interest in cutting interest rates anytime soon. If anything,

0:33:13.360 --> 0:33:16.080
<v Speaker 8>there seems to be more of a consensus growing out

0:33:16.080 --> 0:33:19.120
<v Speaker 8>of the Fed of policy makers who might be inclined

0:33:19.120 --> 0:33:22.600
<v Speaker 8>to raise interest rates as a next move. So we're

0:33:22.640 --> 0:33:24.960
<v Speaker 8>not going to get any help on the rate differential.

0:33:26.080 --> 0:33:29.040
<v Speaker 8>And even if the Bank of Japan does hike interest

0:33:29.120 --> 0:33:32.040
<v Speaker 8>rates here, there is still quite a meaningful gap to

0:33:32.160 --> 0:33:35.760
<v Speaker 8>claw that back and to help the end offset some

0:33:35.840 --> 0:33:36.560
<v Speaker 8>of this weakness.

0:33:36.760 --> 0:33:39.880
<v Speaker 4>So it's not just energy products that are imported. A

0:33:39.960 --> 0:33:43.920
<v Speaker 4>number of other resources. Is that showing up, particularly when

0:33:43.960 --> 0:33:47.040
<v Speaker 4>you look at certain areas like food that these costs

0:33:47.080 --> 0:33:48.240
<v Speaker 4>have also appreciated.

0:33:49.000 --> 0:33:52.400
<v Speaker 8>That's where, yeah, it's you know, interesting looking at different

0:33:52.440 --> 0:33:55.720
<v Speaker 8>measures of inflation here compared to what we look at

0:33:55.720 --> 0:33:58.600
<v Speaker 8>in the US, and one of them is, you know,

0:33:58.640 --> 0:34:03.240
<v Speaker 8>particularly for food prices for foods that are made with rice,

0:34:03.360 --> 0:34:06.400
<v Speaker 8>and that's really been one of the real sticking points

0:34:06.440 --> 0:34:09.879
<v Speaker 8>of where inflation has really been meaningful here.

0:34:10.440 --> 0:34:12.560
<v Speaker 4>Molly, we'll leave it there, thank you so very much,

0:34:12.560 --> 0:34:16.240
<v Speaker 4>and enjoy that temporary assignment for Bloomberg News in Tokyo,

0:34:16.520 --> 0:34:19.600
<v Speaker 4>Bloomberg's Molly Smith. We moved to China next, where the

0:34:19.640 --> 0:34:23.239
<v Speaker 4>government recently reported a surge in both the value and

0:34:23.320 --> 0:34:27.440
<v Speaker 4>the number of payment transactions from overseas visitors during the

0:34:27.480 --> 0:34:30.839
<v Speaker 4>recent five day Labor Day holiday, and that's where we

0:34:30.880 --> 0:34:34.359
<v Speaker 4>began our conversation with Kent Ju. Kent is CEO of

0:34:34.480 --> 0:34:37.000
<v Speaker 4>a Core Greater China, and he spoke with Bloomberg TV

0:34:37.080 --> 0:34:39.040
<v Speaker 4>host David Inglase and Ivon Mann.

0:34:39.200 --> 0:34:41.000
<v Speaker 5>Let me just get started if I could, with the

0:34:41.120 --> 0:34:44.640
<v Speaker 5>recent long weekend, could you give us maybe what were

0:34:44.680 --> 0:34:47.200
<v Speaker 5>the highlights for your group? What stood out to you

0:34:47.239 --> 0:34:49.000
<v Speaker 5>and equally what were the challenges?

0:34:49.840 --> 0:34:54.000
<v Speaker 12>Good morning. Indeed, the China hotels record a very strong

0:34:54.160 --> 0:34:58.120
<v Speaker 12>redpad growth over this past May holiday. While it is

0:34:58.440 --> 0:35:03.000
<v Speaker 12>that did experience the slightly softer demand in comparison with

0:35:03.120 --> 0:35:06.680
<v Speaker 12>Chinese New Year and the timming holidays. Uh, these I

0:35:06.680 --> 0:35:10.720
<v Speaker 12>would say attributed two main factors. One is this Chinese

0:35:10.760 --> 0:35:13.880
<v Speaker 12>New Year, we had a longer holiday and also a

0:35:14.719 --> 0:35:20.239
<v Speaker 12>later holiday, and this shifted the travel pattern slightly. And

0:35:20.360 --> 0:35:24.000
<v Speaker 12>number two, the air fare rise as a result of

0:35:24.040 --> 0:35:29.240
<v Speaker 12>the recent oil price increase. But nevertheless, the hotels generally

0:35:29.239 --> 0:35:34.160
<v Speaker 12>did very well as reported in other various different sources.

0:35:34.200 --> 0:35:37.560
<v Speaker 12>We are waiting for the official data in the next

0:35:37.640 --> 0:35:40.840
<v Speaker 12>couple of days, but I'm sure the picture will be

0:35:40.960 --> 0:35:41.759
<v Speaker 12>very robust.

0:35:42.160 --> 0:35:45.640
<v Speaker 13>You mentioned about the increase in jet fuel prices and

0:35:45.960 --> 0:35:51.000
<v Speaker 13>really obviously airfares have have really skyrocketed since this around

0:35:51.040 --> 0:35:55.560
<v Speaker 13>situation began. Can has it impacted anywhere your occupancy across

0:35:55.560 --> 0:35:56.920
<v Speaker 13>your hotels? Can you tell a little bit more the

0:35:56.960 --> 0:35:59.120
<v Speaker 13>impact that around more may have on the industry.

0:36:00.040 --> 0:36:03.720
<v Speaker 12>The Mini East crisis didn't really impact a Greater China

0:36:03.719 --> 0:36:08.680
<v Speaker 12>hotels performance that much, simply because Middle East is a

0:36:08.800 --> 0:36:11.200
<v Speaker 12>very small market for us. It's not on the top

0:36:11.239 --> 0:36:14.320
<v Speaker 12>ten list. It takes up a three percent of Greater

0:36:14.440 --> 0:36:19.239
<v Speaker 12>Chinese hotel revenue number two Q one and Q two

0:36:19.440 --> 0:36:23.560
<v Speaker 12>are not their traditional high travel season, so the hotel's

0:36:23.600 --> 0:36:25.600
<v Speaker 12>impact is quite a minimum.

0:36:26.440 --> 0:36:27.680
<v Speaker 6>Okay, I guess.

0:36:27.560 --> 0:36:31.520
<v Speaker 5>Can't just maybe including what we've seen so far in

0:36:31.560 --> 0:36:34.320
<v Speaker 5>the first few months of twenty twenty six, before of course,

0:36:34.360 --> 0:36:38.279
<v Speaker 5>but the war started in Iran and maybe also encapsulating

0:36:38.320 --> 0:36:41.879
<v Speaker 5>the recent weekend. Could you tell us more about where

0:36:41.920 --> 0:36:43.360
<v Speaker 5>you're seeing the growth in as far as is it

0:36:43.440 --> 0:36:45.799
<v Speaker 5>domestic travel that seems to be picking up if you

0:36:45.840 --> 0:36:48.000
<v Speaker 5>have the data on that, or are we seeing a

0:36:48.440 --> 0:36:51.600
<v Speaker 5>faster pickup in inbound travel into mainland China? Well?

0:36:51.640 --> 0:36:56.040
<v Speaker 12>Inbound extremely robust. In twenty twenty five, we saw a

0:36:56.160 --> 0:36:59.720
<v Speaker 12>thirty six percent increase for our Co hotels in Greater China,

0:37:00.320 --> 0:37:03.240
<v Speaker 12>and the first quarter of this year up until actually

0:37:03.480 --> 0:37:07.960
<v Speaker 12>end of March, we saw another increase of twenty five percent.

0:37:08.560 --> 0:37:11.839
<v Speaker 12>So this is this is a very strong sign that

0:37:12.560 --> 0:37:17.800
<v Speaker 12>China's visa free forest policy is is helping the industry

0:37:18.480 --> 0:37:22.160
<v Speaker 12>in Greater China. Number two, the leisure demound in domestic

0:37:22.360 --> 0:37:27.960
<v Speaker 12>markets is also very robust, particularly in markets in Greater China,

0:37:28.520 --> 0:37:33.640
<v Speaker 12>uh sorry, great Greater Bay Area, Sanya Yinland and also

0:37:33.719 --> 0:37:36.520
<v Speaker 12>great to for example Hong Kong and h and Going.

0:37:36.560 --> 0:37:40.000
<v Speaker 12>So these two cities literally ran full house for the

0:37:40.040 --> 0:37:42.040
<v Speaker 12>last ten ten days.

0:37:42.680 --> 0:37:45.560
<v Speaker 13>You mentioned rev PARW was actually pretty good during during

0:37:45.800 --> 0:37:48.680
<v Speaker 13>the holiday Candra, I think up until the end of

0:37:48.760 --> 0:37:51.920
<v Speaker 13>last year, rev part in China was still a negative

0:37:52.000 --> 0:37:55.080
<v Speaker 13>territory here and really, you know, underperforming a lot of

0:37:55.080 --> 0:37:57.600
<v Speaker 13>parts of the region. Do you have a sense of

0:37:57.960 --> 0:38:00.160
<v Speaker 13>demand picking up a bit more there and when you

0:38:00.160 --> 0:38:03.719
<v Speaker 13>think red Park can actually turn positive in China.

0:38:03.320 --> 0:38:06.080
<v Speaker 12>I think the love part negative rep part really was

0:38:06.200 --> 0:38:10.200
<v Speaker 12>in the mid scale and the economy scale hotels last year.

0:38:10.560 --> 0:38:12.760
<v Speaker 12>But if you look at the premium and luxury segments

0:38:12.920 --> 0:38:16.640
<v Speaker 12>actually outperformed two d twenty five. There was a five

0:38:16.680 --> 0:38:19.640
<v Speaker 12>percent to six percent of repil growth in the premium

0:38:19.680 --> 0:38:22.920
<v Speaker 12>and luxury segment. So in the Nashelle we see this

0:38:23.040 --> 0:38:26.759
<v Speaker 12>trend starting actually from Q three last year until year

0:38:26.760 --> 0:38:30.640
<v Speaker 12>to day this year. Luxury segment in particular has recorded

0:38:30.680 --> 0:38:32.279
<v Speaker 12>more than eight percent increase on you.

0:38:32.640 --> 0:38:35.560
<v Speaker 4>That was Kent ju CEO of a Core Greater China,

0:38:35.600 --> 0:38:39.320
<v Speaker 4>speaking with Bloomberg TV host David and Glaze and Vonne Mann.

0:38:39.600 --> 0:38:41.680
<v Speaker 4>I'm Derek Kristner. You can catch us weekdays for the

0:38:41.719 --> 0:38:45.560
<v Speaker 4>Daybreak Asia podcast. It's available wherever you get your podcast.

0:38:45.920 --> 0:38:49.040
<v Speaker 2>Nathan, Thanks Doug, and that does it for this edition

0:38:49.120 --> 0:38:52.279
<v Speaker 2>of Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend. Join us again Monday morning at

0:38:52.280 --> 0:38:54.960
<v Speaker 2>five am Wall Street Time for the latest on markets

0:38:55.000 --> 0:38:57.480
<v Speaker 2>overseas and the news you need to start your day.

0:38:57.760 --> 0:39:00.360
<v Speaker 2>I'm Nathan Hager. Stay with us, stop store worries and

0:39:00.400 --> 0:39:03.200
<v Speaker 2>global business headlines are coming up right now.