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Speaker 1: And welcome in Lakig is Live. It is Tuesday night,

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Speaker 1: September twenty seventh, the our lower twenty twenty two college football,

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Speaker 1: seemingly on the brink of a renaissance season Part two.

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Speaker 1: You and I have a front row seat together. When

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Speaker 1: you're jam packed iatap a temperate and jamming downtown natural.

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Speaker 1: You walk out in the parking garage right now, you

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Speaker 1: can hear like five different country songs being covered. It's

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Speaker 1: a beautiful thing. It's a beautiful night. It's a beautiful

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Speaker 1: show that we have planned for you because we have

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Speaker 1: full week five predictions and we're gonna make some very

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Speaker 1: very treacherous picks tonight. I know because I've seen the spoilers.

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Speaker 1: I know where I'm going on these games New JP Poll.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be a disaster when we release it.

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Speaker 1: I'm prepared for it. Okay, it's we're in our own

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Speaker 1: kind of disaster preparation mode around here for different reasons.

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Speaker 1: We have our eye on Hurricane Ian as well, and

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Speaker 1: we have you guys down in Florida on our minds.

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Speaker 1: We got some added best bets and we've got I

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Speaker 1: think two more tonight, along with some tough love to

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Speaker 1: be dished out. I made you a promise a long

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Speaker 1: time ago in this show, and I promised you it

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Speaker 1: was gonna be your show. And lately we've had some

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Speaker 1: claims of certain forms of biases appearing on the show,

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Speaker 1: and yet we've kept our promise. May not sound like it,

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Speaker 1: but we've kept our promise. I'm I'm gonna address that

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Speaker 1: a little bit later on tonight. They're watching us in Tyler, Texas, Williamsburg, Kentucky, Hamburg, Germany,

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Speaker 1: and Duluth, Minnesota. Little heads up here, listen to me.

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Speaker 1: If you go to Alabama, I need some help. There

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Speaker 1: are a couple of frat houses right across from Bryant

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Speaker 1: Denny Steadium. You know exactly which ones I'm talking about.

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Speaker 1: So I don't know my Greek alphabet very well, but

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Speaker 1: I need you guys to hit me up in my

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Speaker 1: DMS if you were part of either one of those fraternities,

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Speaker 1: that's all. Look, we have several chalaive supremacy on the

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Speaker 1: desk tonight. Anytime you do something extraordinary to help the show,

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Speaker 1: we ship you one of these. It's got the Pate

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Speaker 1: State logo on it. It says Chalice of Supremacy. I say,

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Speaker 1: Chawlai because it's plural more than one out here. Colin

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Speaker 1: and I were talking about ten minutes ago and we

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Speaker 1: decided to start a new tradition on the show. You

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Speaker 1: can open whatever you want to. This is just coldbrew.

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to tell you the name of the

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Speaker 1: company because they don't sponsor us. But instead of just

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Speaker 1: drinking out of a little garden variety plastic cup over here,

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Speaker 1: why not drink out of one of our paid state

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Speaker 1: golly of Supremacy. So I will sip from this throughout

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Speaker 1: the rest of the show, and I encourage the dozens

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Speaker 1: of you who have received a chalice of Supremacy to

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Speaker 1: use it in a similar fashion, and the rest of

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Speaker 1: you will get one eventually. So that's something to look

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Speaker 1: forward to in life. Let's dive into the show tonight.

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Speaker 1: We've got several games to predict. Tuesday night is our

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Speaker 1: prediction night, so let's dive in, and first and foremost,

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Speaker 1: I want to get to NC State Clemson. This is

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Speaker 1: the Saturday night, seven thirty Eastern time game on ABC.

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Speaker 1: As of live broadcast tonight, they're still going to play

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Speaker 1: this thing at seven thirty Saturday night. This was a

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Speaker 1: runner up let me stress that a runner up for

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Speaker 1: our every given Saturday tour desk Nation this week. I

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Speaker 1: pay attention to weather every bit as much as I

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Speaker 1: pay attention to college football, so I was well aware

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Speaker 1: the conditions could rapidly deteriorate their Saturday, and it looks

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Speaker 1: like they will. That's not the only reason we're not there,

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Speaker 1: but it was chief among them. How big is this game, though,

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Speaker 1: forget about whether we're there or not. How big is

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Speaker 1: this game? Massive? Huge, because the wonky shape of the

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Speaker 1: ACC right now is such that three or four or

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Speaker 1: maybe five of the best teams in the conference are

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Speaker 1: all in one division. These are two of them. This

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Speaker 1: may be the two best teams in the conference, Clemson

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Speaker 1: and NC State. If Clemson loses this game, you're essentially

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Speaker 1: a game and a half behind. You need the wolf

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Speaker 1: Pack to drop two conference games, and it's possible. It's

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Speaker 1: just not likely. You can repeat the same sentence on

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Speaker 1: the other side of the fence there. It's the first

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Speaker 1: meeting with both these teams in the top ten. It's

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Speaker 1: the first or it's Jesse told me. It's one of

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Speaker 1: only three games in the country featuring four and oh

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Speaker 1: FBS teams. This weekend, which is an interesting note to me. Also,

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Speaker 1: here's what the weather has done in real terms to

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Speaker 1: this game. The total opened at forty eight. That thing

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Speaker 1: has been poo poo hammered all the way down to forty. Now,

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna tell you this. If win is a

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Speaker 1: factor here, that's appropriate. If it's not, that total is

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Speaker 1: about ten or eleven points too low. So keep an

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Speaker 1: eye on those win conditions. Kids, What have you been

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Speaker 1: versus what can you be? Remember last week that was

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Speaker 1: kind of a theme on the show What have you been?

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Speaker 1: And then have you been everything you could be? And

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Speaker 1: if you haven't, do you have it in you to

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Speaker 1: spring an upset and surprise the college football world. Well,

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Speaker 1: nc State on average, they have faced the one hundred

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Speaker 1: and ninth best pass defense in the country, which would

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Speaker 1: lead you to believe if you haven't watched the games,

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Speaker 1: Devin Leary has feasted on that inferior defensive back competition.

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Speaker 1: Right wrong, he hasn't, which is troubling going into this

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Speaker 1: game because even though Clemson gave up some big yardage

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Speaker 1: totals last week to wake, if you got to throw

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Speaker 1: into the wind and you're not doing good throwing in

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Speaker 1: sterile conditions against the average one hundred and ninth ranked

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Speaker 1: pass defense to begin with, are you going to do

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Speaker 1: something for me this week that you haven't been able

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Speaker 1: to do yet. That's this classic kind of game here.

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Speaker 1: If NC State pulls the upset, it's called Leary does

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Speaker 1: something he was always capable of. We've seen him do

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Speaker 1: it before, we just hadn't seen it this year. And

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Speaker 1: it's not just on him. It's a collective. But he's

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Speaker 1: the guy pulling the trigger back there. Number one, is

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Speaker 1: he capable of more? Number two is Saturday the day

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Speaker 1: that we see that. And when you go back to

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Speaker 1: last week and you look on the other side of

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Speaker 1: the field here and you talk about dj Uyangila le

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Speaker 1: having those big numbers he put up against Wake, is

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Speaker 1: it transferable? My initial thought was good for him. He

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Speaker 1: got a really, really good statistical game under his belt

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Speaker 1: that gets him ready for NC State. But the more

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Speaker 1: I went back and watched it, the more I saw

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Speaker 1: receivers making real good plays for him. That's part of it.

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Speaker 1: But I did not take away from that game that

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Speaker 1: a lot of what I saw last Saturday was transferable.

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Speaker 1: It just seamlessly carries over. You know what, I mean,

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Speaker 1: so he may he may still have a dynamite game

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Speaker 1: this Saturday. I don't think it's as simple as well.

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Speaker 1: He did it against Wake, so icious keep that momentum going.

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of things that worked against Wake

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Speaker 1: last week probably grind to a halt this week. Doesn't

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Speaker 1: mean he can't have production. I just think you're starting

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Speaker 1: from scratch again. To what degree does weather impact the

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Speaker 1: offensive rhythm here? Which is the million dollar question that

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Speaker 1: we can't really answer yet. It looks like it's going

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Speaker 1: to impact things pretty significantly when though, forget about the ring,

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Speaker 1: when is what slows this to a crawl? If you

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Speaker 1: got fifteen or twenty mile an hour plus wins, that's

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Speaker 1: what really slows this to a crawl. And I think

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Speaker 1: about Brandon Streeter, who's the offensive coordinator for Clemson, and

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Speaker 1: I wonder is he willing to be patient? This could

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Speaker 1: very well turn into the kind of game where you've

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Speaker 1: got like an eighty to twenty run to pass ratio.

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Speaker 1: The problem is, boy, that Wake Forest game is so

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Speaker 1: fresh in your mind, and boy dj uy Agialle putting

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Speaker 1: up all those passing yards, it's so fresh in your mind,

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Speaker 1: and you know what it gets sometimes run the ball

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Speaker 1: over and over again. It gets kind of boring. You

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Speaker 1: know what you got on that place sheet in front

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Speaker 1: of you. You got a lot of stuff you've worked

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Speaker 1: on in spring, you got a lot of stuff you

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Speaker 1: worked on in fall camp. You got stuff you installed

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Speaker 1: for your game plan this week, and it just starts

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Speaker 1: yelling at you. And eventually you start calling some of

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Speaker 1: those plays just because you have a tendency to not

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Speaker 1: want to keep them in your back pocket. You don't

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Speaker 1: want to leave bullets in the chamber. You want to

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Speaker 1: use everything you prepared for. And sometimes the best chance

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Speaker 1: that you give yourself to win is just doing the

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Speaker 1: same three or four things over and over and over again.

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Speaker 1: And it may be that it's death by a thousand

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Speaker 1: paper cuts to the opposition, but eventually it works. Is

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Speaker 1: that the kind of game we have Saturday? And if

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Speaker 1: it is, I'm thinking about both sides here, frankly, and

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Speaker 1: I'm thinking about how critical defensive scoring will be in

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Speaker 1: this game. That's the way that these weather games always

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Speaker 1: play out. When you have a lot of wind and rain,

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Speaker 1: it's the defensive scores that a lot of times determine

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Speaker 1: the game. And it applies both ways because Leary's gonna

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Speaker 1: have to throw as well. They're not going to run

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Speaker 1: the ball to win against Clemson. They're gonna have to throw.

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Speaker 1: Now Hartman was able to do it against them last week.

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Speaker 1: That's a different world than what they're going to play

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Speaker 1: in Saturday. But what interest to me is we pull

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Speaker 1: up the model here. I'll go ahead and show you

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Speaker 1: what the computer thinks about it. As we pull up

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Speaker 1: the model, I will tell you the Vegas number here

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Speaker 1: is six and a half. I think that's what we

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Speaker 1: still have. Yeah, Clemson minus six and a half. Home

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Speaker 1: field's baked in there, so odds makers are essentially telling

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Speaker 1: you about a field goal or so separates these teams

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Speaker 1: on a neutral field, which is not too far off from, frankly,

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Speaker 1: what I expected in the preseason. The model is a

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Speaker 1: little bit shorter. The model has Clemson minus five. And

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Speaker 1: I watched that weight game last week, and I knew

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Speaker 1: where I was going on this thing as soon as

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Speaker 1: that game wrapped up. I think there's a little bit

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Speaker 1: of false sense of confidence that was given to Clemson

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Speaker 1: last week. Not forget about Clemson. In people's minds about

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Speaker 1: Clemson because of that outcome. Had they dropped that game

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Speaker 1: in overtime, this line would be four three somewhere around there,

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Speaker 1: and really there's no difference in the outcomes. If anything,

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Speaker 1: Clemson would be more desperate this week. I think NC

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Speaker 1: States got it in them to win this game, and

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Speaker 1: I think they're gonna win it. I think they're gonna

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Speaker 1: pull the upset. So I'm gonna take NC State plus

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Speaker 1: six and a half. I'm gonna take them outright super

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Speaker 1: Bowl mode. I simply think you're going to get a

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Speaker 1: performance collectively out of them that's better than anything you've

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Speaker 1: seen this year, because I think it's in them. In

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Speaker 1: other words, I do not think that the sum so

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Speaker 1: far of what they've put out there is what their

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Speaker 1: maximum capability is, and I think you're gonna get it Saturday. Now,

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Speaker 1: what could happen is you could have just a horrifically

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Speaker 1: ugly game to where you watch it and whoever wins wins.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it's NC State, maybe it's Clemson, but regardless foo wins,

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Speaker 1: you could walk away from that game saying I don't

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Speaker 1: even know what to make of this, because yeah, they

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Speaker 1: played it and both teams had to play in the

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Speaker 1: same conditions, but this was not conducive to a meaningful

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Speaker 1: result for me, that Notre Dame NC State game once

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Speaker 1: upon a time where they played in a tropical storm.

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Speaker 1: I felt that way coming out of that one. I

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Speaker 1: think Deshaun Kaiser started for Notre Dame at quarterback and

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Speaker 1: Brian Kelly just said, hey, screw it, We're gonna throw

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Speaker 1: into that wind anyway. And the ball did exactly what

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Speaker 1: it does and about forty forty five mile an hour

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Speaker 1: wins and Notre Dame dropped that game because NC State

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Speaker 1: was disciplined enough to wait for them to give them

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Speaker 1: the game. I wonder if that's how it turns out Saturday.

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Speaker 1: We'll see first sip from the chalice here. Colin, you

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Speaker 1: were right. It tastes so much better. There's something about

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Speaker 1: drinking out of a glass that tastes so much better.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna predict the Kentucky Ole Miss game later, but

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Speaker 1: I'm talking to our friends in Lexington, Kentucky right now.

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Speaker 1: That's how you know it's serious, Paper Pop. You've got

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Speaker 1: a brand new Academy Sports and Outdoors opening in your

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Speaker 1: backyard this weekend. Grand opening, people, Chawli of supremacy will

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Speaker 1: be on the line. You gotta get there and you

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Speaker 1: got to prove to me that you were there. Receipts

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Speaker 1: will do just fine. And I'm going to pick about

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Speaker 1: ten of you who prove that to me, and I'm

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Speaker 1: sending you chawli of supremacy. Academy Sports and Outdoors are

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Speaker 1: exclusive partner. We've done two of these grand openings with

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Speaker 1: them already. I can't give you the exact numbers because

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Speaker 1: it's been forbidden, but I can tell you especially the

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Speaker 1: Panama City grandow opening was the most successful in the

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Speaker 1: history of that company. Is it our fault? I can't

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Speaker 1: say for sure, but yes, it was basically all on us.

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Speaker 1: So let's do it again. Lexington, you guys have been

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Speaker 1: asking for one. Everyone says, oh, I don't have I

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Speaker 1: look at the little dots on the map. I don't

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Speaker 1: have a dot in my backyard. You're about to have

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Speaker 1: a dot in your backyard, so make it count. Academy

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Speaker 1: Sports and Outdoors. Now, for the rest of you, you've

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Speaker 1: either already got one in and around your neighborhood or

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Speaker 1: you got the internet. And if you got the Internet,

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Speaker 1: go to Academy Sports and Outdoors and you get all

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Speaker 1: of your outdoor sporting goods, needs, grilling, needs, rain, gear.

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Speaker 1: A lot of you are gonna need that. You get

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Speaker 1: that taken care of. You get bats and balls, you

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Speaker 1: get camping equipment, you get everything that you need Academy

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Speaker 1: dot Com or Academy Sports and Outdoors. I do not

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Speaker 1: look forward to what we're about to do. This has

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Speaker 1: become my least favorite segment in the show. Every week.

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Speaker 1: You know what it deserves another soap. Oh, here we go.

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Speaker 1: So it's JP pole time and we've got significant movement

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Speaker 1: in the JP poll this week. I know that we

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Speaker 1: are going to be inundated with foolishness once we post

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Speaker 1: this later tonight. So what I figured we would do

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Speaker 1: so I don't have to answer the same question forty

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Speaker 1: seven times is I'm just gonna I'm gonna do something here.

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Speaker 1: Bear with me for about thirty seconds, because what I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna do is I'm gonna clip what I'm about to say,

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Speaker 1: and I'm gonna respond to every troll on every social

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Speaker 1: platform with this video. Here's how it's gonna sound. Colin.

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Speaker 1: We can put this in the regular video too. This

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Speaker 1: is a power rating. It is not a ranking. If

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Speaker 1: you are of the Danny Canell mold and you come

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Speaker 1: at me and you say, how could you advocate for this.

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Speaker 1: Teams deserve to be higher. They do. If you're ranking teams,

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Speaker 1: I'm not ranking them. If I were ranking them, there

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Speaker 1: are teams I don't have in my top ten that

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Speaker 1: I would put in the top ten. I don't have

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Speaker 1: Kansas in our top twenty five. If I were an

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Speaker 1: AP voter, I'd have Kansas in the top twenty because

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Speaker 1: their merit deserves them to be there. That is not

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Speaker 1: what this is. All this is, and I mean all

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Speaker 1: this period is, is who would be favored against who tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: If you want to come at me and say that's

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Speaker 1: no way to determine how the playoffs should work, you're right.

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Speaker 1: I'm not advocating for this to determine anything along those lines.

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Speaker 1: I am simply performing an exercise based on our model

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Speaker 1: and what it thinks about who would be favored against

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Speaker 1: who tomorrow. If you want to yell at me, computers

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Speaker 1: shouldn't decide championships in college football, they don't. I'm not

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Speaker 1: advocating for that. All this is is who we think

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Speaker 1: would be favored against two according to our model tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: I hope I haven't been unclear. Let's get to the

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Speaker 1: top twenty five. There are some new entrants here for

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Speaker 1: the first time in a couple of weeks. Oregon shows

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Speaker 1: back up at number twenty five. We've got NC State there.

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Speaker 1: We're lower on NC State than the Ape, yet I

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Speaker 1: just picked them to beat Clemson outright, so make sense

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Speaker 1: of that what you will. Minnesota twenty three, LSU twenty two,

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Speaker 1: and we've got Baylor there at twenty one. Minnesota is

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Speaker 1: in this thing, I believe for the first time this year,

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Speaker 1: so they are going in the right direction. Okay, let's

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Speaker 1: get to the top twenty because here's where we've got

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Speaker 1: some pretty significant movement this week. And you got to remember,

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Speaker 1: if you see a team move down, they may not

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Speaker 1: have been bumped. They may have just had some other

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Speaker 1: teams rate higher and therefore they had to slide down

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Speaker 1: by default. The number twenty team in the country is

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Speaker 1: Kansas State, and I'm going to tell you why they

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Speaker 1: rose all the way from being unranked to number twenty.

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Speaker 1: The model was flat out underestimating quarterback play for them.

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Speaker 1: Because we've got a book on Adrian Martinez, we've got

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Speaker 1: a player profile on him. What we underestimated was how

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Speaker 1: much a different environment would positively impact his play and

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Speaker 1: therefore how much his positive play would impact that team.

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Speaker 1: So Kansas State has just flat out better than we

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Speaker 1: had them pegged for the first couple of weeks of

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Speaker 1: the year. Or maybe they always were that and the

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Speaker 1: model is just slow on the update. It has happened before.

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Speaker 1: Texas A and M is still nineteen. What does that mean.

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Speaker 1: It means we think there are about eighteen teams in

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Speaker 1: the country. Our model would favor against them tomorrow and

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Speaker 1: it has nothing to do with whether they lost to

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Speaker 1: app State. It has nothing to do with the coin

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Speaker 1: flip game last week. That's all that matters. Kentucky is

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Speaker 1: at eighteen. We're going to see them in person this Saturday.

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Speaker 1: Florida State a big mover at seventeen. Florida State. Let

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Speaker 1: me tell you why the model bumped them up, or

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Speaker 1: why I think the model bumped them up. Last week

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Speaker 1: they played Boston College. They were favored by somewhere between

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Speaker 1: seventeen and twenty depending on when you bet the game,

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Speaker 1: and they handled Boston College disposed of them quite easily.

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Speaker 1: Some people discount that because they look and the human

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Speaker 1: side of you says, why should I reward you for

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Speaker 1: beating a bad team. The reason you should is because

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Speaker 1: not every good team or good team that you think

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Speaker 1: is good at least beats bad teams when they're supposed

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Speaker 1: to do, so you should reward them. You reward teams

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Speaker 1: for winning really big games close. You also should reward

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Speaker 1: them for beating bad teams soundly. So we did with

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Speaker 1: Florida State. Cincinnati's still just lurking around at number sixteen.

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Speaker 1: Here we go top fifteen time. Mississippi State is still

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Speaker 1: number fifteen. The model's been consistent on them all year.

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Speaker 1: They've got a loss, they lost to LSU. They are

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Speaker 1: favored by three and a half or four points now

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Speaker 1: this weekend against Texas A and M. That opened at

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Speaker 1: one and a half or two, and it's already crossed three.

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Speaker 1: So Mississippi State, we got on them at two the

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Speaker 1: other night. There's a reason I bet that on Sunday night,

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Speaker 1: and I told you to do the same. I suspected

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Speaker 1: it would cross three. It now has, and it's at four.

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Speaker 1: Some places had four and a half earlier today. Point being,

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Speaker 1: that's a really good team. They're an underrated team. The

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Speaker 1: odds makers, pretty much all the advanced metrics guys out

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Speaker 1: there kind of agree with us on Mississippi State. We've

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Speaker 1: been on them pretty high all year. Arkansas had a

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Speaker 1: slight drop and they didn't really I think we dropped

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Speaker 1: them half a point in the model. So I told

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Speaker 1: you there was gonna be no real adjustment. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Arkansas just lost to A and M. We still got

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Speaker 1: Arkansas above A and M because we would favor them

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Speaker 1: tomorrow on a neutral field again against A ANDM. Doesn't

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Speaker 1: matter in terms of the win loss column, just for

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Speaker 1: this simple exercise. That's where they are. Ole Miss tough

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Speaker 1: team to get a read on because they haven't played anyone.

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Speaker 1: Now they'll play someone this weekend, So Ole Miss Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: It's one of the reasons we're going to the game.

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Speaker 1: It's so attractive because we get two of our top

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Speaker 1: twenty teams. They're playing against each other. Oklahoma State at twelve.

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Speaker 1: They're going to play Baylor this week. Texas at number eleven,

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Speaker 1: Now that stands out, I know. Let me explain why

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Speaker 1: Texas is at eleven even though they've got two losses. Now,

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Speaker 1: the Texas team that we have at eleven is the

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Speaker 1: Texas team with Quinn Ewers because he gets reinserted assumed

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Speaker 1: reinserted back into the lineup this week. The model just

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Speaker 1: thinks with quinn Ewers, they're an undefeated team right now

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Speaker 1: and the caliber team they are now and moving forward,

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Speaker 1: which is what this is used for. That's where they

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Speaker 1: view them. So we couldn't care less they have two

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Speaker 1: losses because this is not an AP ranking Top ten time.

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Speaker 1: Let's roll right into the top ten, shall we usc

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Speaker 1: We didn't have to adjust them at all because we

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Speaker 1: didn't have them as high as everyone else. So you

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Speaker 1: watched them nearly lose to Oregon State, it wasn't shocking

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Speaker 1: to us. We've got them pretty much pegged where we

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Speaker 1: want them. Clumbson got taken to overtime against Wake, That's

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Speaker 1: what we would expect. We didn't knock them down at

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Speaker 1: all because we already had him at nine, so there's

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Speaker 1: no punishment. Plus they won the game. So even in

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Speaker 1: the AP world, why would you punish a team if

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Speaker 1: they win a game. Oklahoma is the team that fell

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Speaker 1: a little bit here because what they lost to Kansas

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Speaker 1: State and they kind of got handled by Kansas State.

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Speaker 1: Now we still think they're a top ten team. We

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Speaker 1: don't think that that's anything that you're going to look

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Speaker 1: back on at the end of the year and say

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Speaker 1: that was the start of a big slide for Oklahoma.

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Speaker 1: But they've got a big, crucial game on the road

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Speaker 1: against TCU this week. We do not think TCU is

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Speaker 1: a top twenty five team right now in the Power

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Speaker 1: rating world. But keep in mind, I'm going to give

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Speaker 1: you some stats to fully articulate for you how jammed

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Speaker 1: up all these teams are past number three. So it

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Speaker 1: doesn't really matter that TCU is like number twenty nine

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Speaker 1: or thirty for us, because if you go into their building,

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Speaker 1: you get the kind of point spread you have with

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma TCU, which I think is five or something like that.

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Speaker 1: So everyone's looking ahead to red River next week. No

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Speaker 1: Texas has got West Virginia this week, Oklahoma's got TCU.

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Speaker 1: Those are both losable game. Penn State is still at seven,

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Speaker 1: Utah's at six. Now I'm going to say what some

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Speaker 1: of you are thinking. Then I'm going to address it

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Speaker 1: in a second. Some of you are looking at Penn

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Speaker 1: State at seven or UTA at six, and you're saying

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Speaker 1: things like Penn State is not a top seven team,

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Speaker 1: Utah is not a top seven team. Colin you can

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Speaker 1: go enroll to the top five, because I'm going to

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Speaker 1: say the same thing here. We've got at number five,

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Speaker 1: Tennessee at number four as Michigan, and I can hear

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Speaker 1: some of you right now saying the same sort of thing.

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Speaker 1: Tennessee's not a top five team. Michigan's not a top

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Speaker 1: five team. What does top five mean? You've you sometimes

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Speaker 1: got this very very baked in idea of a generic

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Speaker 1: top five team. What does that phrase top five caliber

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Speaker 1: normally mean? And you've got you got kind of the

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Speaker 1: value of a team ascribed to what you think is

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Speaker 1: top five caliber. That's not how you rate teams, though

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Speaker 1: you rate teams in the given year that they exist

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Speaker 1: in the current climate, they exist. So right now I

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Speaker 1: would ask you this. If you scoff at Michigan or

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Speaker 1: Tennessee being up there, that means you think there's another

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Speaker 1: team that's clearly better than them and would clearly be

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Speaker 1: favored against them if they play tomorrow. That doesn't exist

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Speaker 1: right now, is what I'm telling you. So you see,

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Speaker 1: we got a new number one. By the way, Bama,

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Speaker 1: our model put back at number one, Georgia's number two,

428
00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:23,560
Speaker 1: Ohio State's number three. I want to tell you how

429
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:25,800
Speaker 1: wide the gap is in this sport right now as

430
00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:28,520
Speaker 1: the model sees it. So Colin, do me a favor.

431
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:30,600
Speaker 1: Throw number one through five up again because I want

432
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:32,240
Speaker 1: people to be well, there you go that that works too.

433
00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:36,280
Speaker 1: So number one's Alabama. Number two is Georgia. Number three

434
00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:39,720
Speaker 1: is Ohio State. The gap between Alabama and Ohio State

435
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:43,000
Speaker 1: one through three is two and a half points, so

436
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 1: essentially you've got equal teams there. There is less than

437
00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:49,639
Speaker 1: a field goal difference between the top three. The gap

438
00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:54,679
Speaker 1: between three and four or Ohio State and Michigan is

439
00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:59,680
Speaker 1: fourteen points two touchdowns. Now get this, the gap between

440
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,560
Speaker 1: three and four is two touchdowns. The gap between four

441
00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 1: and twenty five is seven points. So the gap between

442
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:11,520
Speaker 1: four and twenty five is half as much as the

443
00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:15,600
Speaker 1: gap between four and three. That is called tiers. That's

444
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 1: called a tier one, which is those three teams at

445
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 1: the top Bama, Georgia, Ohio State. And then you've got

446
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:24,520
Speaker 1: a very very big drop off. And then you've got

447
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,800
Speaker 1: this mashup of teams like twenty one or twenty two,

448
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 1: twenty three teams that are within a touchdown of each

449
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 1: other on a neutral field. So you see when some

450
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:37,040
Speaker 1: of you want to argue with me that number eighteen

451
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,280
Speaker 1: should be ahead of number thirteen, number twenty one should

452
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 1: be ahead of number nineteen. It's all semantics, even the

453
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,400
Speaker 1: model itmits if it could talk, it would, it would

454
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 1: say it's all semantics because they're basically the same team.

455
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 1: Thank you, model. They're basically the same team. And I

456
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,919
Speaker 1: agree with the model. You know, it's the model segment,

457
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:58,639
Speaker 1: not mine. So I was mildly surprised to see Bama

458
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 1: back at number one. But then, I mean, you know,

459
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 1: Georgia did what they did against kent State. I don't

460
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,800
Speaker 1: think it's a big deal at all, but you know,

461
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 1: these computers they're a little more heartless than I am.

462
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 1: So I can't wait. I cannot wait for the well

463
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 1: reasoned and logic based comments and responses to what we

464
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 1: just put out. I will take another stip out of

465
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 1: the chalice in advance. Okay, back to game predictions. Boy,

466
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to this one. Kentucky at ole Miss,

467
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:36,080
Speaker 1: Saturday noon eastern eleven am local time kickoff on ESPN.

468
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 1: You know I love a good early kickoff, and that

469
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:41,480
Speaker 1: was another reason why we went to this game every

470
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,680
Speaker 1: given Saturday Tour, first time ever in the Grove first

471
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,640
Speaker 1: time ever in Oxford to see a game. Very excited

472
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 1: about that. I have had probably more people from ole

473
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 1: Miss reach out to me this week than well, I

474
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 1: don't know, Arkansas inundated us pretty good, but aside from

475
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,439
Speaker 1: week one, I think more people have reached out to

476
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,160
Speaker 1: me from ole Miss in an anticipation of us coming

477
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:04,679
Speaker 1: down there than any place that we've gone in recent memory,

478
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 1: and that matters to us. So I appreciate that this

479
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:11,639
Speaker 1: is the first matchup between these two in Oxford since

480
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 1: twenty ten, So thank goodness, this new rotational schedule is

481
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:18,439
Speaker 1: coming for the se seculs. How in the world is

482
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,919
Speaker 1: that even possible? Do you know what was happening in

483
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 1: the SEC in twenty ten Cam Newton. It's been since

484
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 1: the Cam Newton year in the SEC that Kentucky played

485
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 1: in Vought Hemingway Stadium. Two headlines to keep in mind

486
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:35,359
Speaker 1: as we enter this week and as we enter this

487
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 1: game ole Miss first real big test for him. Think

488
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 1: we all get that that doesn't discount what they are.

489
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 1: They just literally have not been put in a position

490
00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 1: to prove themselves against worthwhile competition yet. Number two for

491
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 1: Kentucky Chris Rodriguez, the running back. He's finally back. Now.

492
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 1: It's well documented that Kentucky has not run the ball

493
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 1: worth anything this year. In fact, two point four yards

494
00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 1: per carry in the FBS level is near the bottom

495
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,919
Speaker 1: of the barrel. How much will he impact that? I

496
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 1: think significantly. But I certainly don't think all of a

497
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 1: sudden the Kentucky ground game becomes something that they can

498
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:12,439
Speaker 1: ride to a victory. Here far from that. So I

499
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,159
Speaker 1: expect they'll be well above two point four yards per carry.

500
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 1: They may even be about four yards per carry. In fact,

501
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,160
Speaker 1: I think they will be this week. So that'll be great.

502
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,439
Speaker 1: It won't be quite enough in and of itself. I

503
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 1: am convinced, and I mean I am thoroughly convinced the

504
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 1: turnovers are going to decide this game. The first reason

505
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 1: is because if you've watched Ole Miss and I don't

506
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:34,280
Speaker 1: think a lot of you have, because they haven't been

507
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 1: marquee games Jackson, Dart, Luke, Altmeyer. No matter who's been

508
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:42,199
Speaker 1: playing quarterback, there has been some questionable decision making, and

509
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 1: Lane Kiffin's been pretty vocal about it. And it's not

510
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:47,679
Speaker 1: the kind of thing that's ever gonna cost you against

511
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:49,400
Speaker 1: the teams they played so far, They had a close

512
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,359
Speaker 1: call last week, but they won the game. It's not

513
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 1: the kind of thing that's going to cost them based

514
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 1: on the schedule they've played so far. It is absolutely

515
00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,200
Speaker 1: the kind of thing that could cost them this Saturday.

516
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 1: And I have no doubt that Mark Stoops will sell

517
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,680
Speaker 1: out to limit the run and he'll look at those

518
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 1: guys and he'll look at his guys at corner and

519
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 1: trust them and say, if they beat us throwing the ball,

520
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:12,679
Speaker 1: they beat us throwing the ball. But you know the

521
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 1: old stereotype about Lane Kiffen teams and Old Miss, you

522
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 1: just think about him in your head. You just think

523
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 1: about them bombing away, bombing away. That's not the way

524
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 1: that they've gone about things so far this year. They

525
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:26,880
Speaker 1: are a run first team. They run the ball, which

526
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 1: leads me to another problem for Old Miss. Zach Evans.

527
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 1: I don't think is going to play Saturday, and if

528
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 1: he does, it be it far less than one hundred percent.

529
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 1: I think Bentley's also out, So they got two experienced

530
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 1: guys at tailback that may be out, and that leads

531
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 1: Quinn Shawn Judkins starting for them probably now. He took

532
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 1: home I think all SEC honors last week he's a

533
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 1: very good player, but it is a young player. And

534
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 1: if I am convinced that turnovers are going to cost

535
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 1: someone this week decision making a quarterback, youth and relative

536
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 1: inexperience at run back, that's what could bite ole Miss.

537
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:05,879
Speaker 1: On the other side, though Kentucky has given up a

538
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,239
Speaker 1: ton of pressure, Will Levis has been pressured a lot.

539
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 1: Kentucky has already allowed sixteen sacks through four games. That

540
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 1: is no bueno. And ole Miss has improved steadily defensively

541
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:18,400
Speaker 1: every year. I think that they can get after Will

542
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:24,639
Speaker 1: Levis again this week Kentucky. If they don't improve radically

543
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 1: in the run game this week, and therefore if they

544
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 1: are in a lot of obvious passing downs, it just

545
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 1: sets itself up so well for those pressure situations for

546
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 1: Will Levis to be affected. Now here's what's going to happen.

547
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 1: I could be right about them ultimately turning the ball over,

548
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 1: and Levis still makes some circus throws, and he makes

549
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 1: some circus plays. You got to tip your cap to

550
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:46,199
Speaker 1: him when he does that. What you got to do

551
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 1: is make him do it half a dozen times to

552
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 1: beat you. And if he does, then he does, you

553
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:53,679
Speaker 1: just got a bank on the fact that he doesn't

554
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 1: do that and he ends up giving you an opportunity

555
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 1: and you capitalize defensively. So what is the value Here's

556
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 1: the other thing that I'm thinking about with this game.

557
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:02,679
Speaker 1: Before we take a look at what the model thinks.

558
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:06,439
Speaker 1: You can only play who's on your schedule. So Ole

559
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:08,920
Speaker 1: Miss has not been tested yet. So if you think

560
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:10,720
Speaker 1: they're good, you think they're good, and if you think

561
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 1: that they're overrated. The point is nobody has changed their

562
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 1: mind on Old Miss because the schedule has not allowed

563
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 1: you to. They played Troy, they played Central Arkansas, they

564
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,200
Speaker 1: went to Georgia Tech, they played Tulsa last week. Both

565
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:25,120
Speaker 1: of these teams were sleepwalking last week. So you've got

566
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 1: that on the Old Miss side. Colin, Could you show

567
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 1: many Kentucky's schedule right quick, because here's what I want

568
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 1: to know. What is the value of Kentucky having played

569
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,360
Speaker 1: that game in week two at Florida where they went

570
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 1: down there and they had to fight and they got

571
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 1: some turnover bounces their way and they won the game.

572
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 1: And that's been the only real test for them because

573
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 1: they sleepwalked last Is it sleepwalk, sleepwalk? Whatever? The past

574
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:50,679
Speaker 1: tense of sleepwalking they both did it last week. What

575
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 1: is the value of that Week two game. Do we

576
00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:55,680
Speaker 1: get to a point in this thing where ole Miss

577
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:57,639
Speaker 1: gets out into the deep end for the first time

578
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:00,240
Speaker 1: and you realize there are some cracks on that team

579
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,640
Speaker 1: you just didn't know about. And then conversely, you're watching

580
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 1: Kentucky and you say, look at them, man, being a

581
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 1: little battle tested in week two, that's proving to pay

582
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,480
Speaker 1: dividends for them this week. That's kind of me openly

583
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:13,320
Speaker 1: speculating because I don't have the answer to that. I

584
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 1: just wonder about it. So let's take a look at

585
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:16,879
Speaker 1: what the model thinks. Let's take a look again at

586
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 1: the Vegas number. Ole Miss is favored by six and

587
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,479
Speaker 1: a half. If you wanted to, you could have gotten

588
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,879
Speaker 1: Reb's minus four last week in the futures market. And

589
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:27,639
Speaker 1: I expected it to tick up a little bit, and

590
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 1: it has and it may even touch seven this week.

591
00:28:31,400 --> 00:28:34,439
Speaker 1: I have looked at this thing and I think that

592
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:37,159
Speaker 1: turnovers are going to decide it. Which which is me

593
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 1: telegraphing to you. I don't think there's much skill in

594
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 1: predicting the outcome of this game. And I am outright

595
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:45,440
Speaker 1: admitting that, as I tell you, I'm taking Kentucky to

596
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 1: win the game outright because I like the profile of

597
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:50,920
Speaker 1: the team. I think they match up fairly well here.

598
00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 1: There are some questions on my side about Ole Miss

599
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,440
Speaker 1: and their ability to take over the game on the ground,

600
00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 1: and if they can't. I know those quarterbacks have it

601
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 1: in them to play a complete game. But man, I

602
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 1: also know Kentucky's defense has it in them to change

603
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 1: a game. And so it's just a slight hunch. There's

604
00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 1: nothing strong in my mind about this. We're probably not

605
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 1: going to betting the game or anything, but I'm going

606
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 1: to take Kentucky to cover and if I think it's

607
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 1: going to be that close. I never feel like I'm

608
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 1: in a winning proposition situation with Kentucky games, because anytime

609
00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 1: I pick against them, I'm the one proven wrong and

610
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 1: I'm the one out here holding up apology notes to

611
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 1: Mark Stoops. So you know what, if I'm proven wrong

612
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 1: this time, I'm going to be proven wrong betting on

613
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 1: Mark Stoops instead of against him. We'll take Kentucky to win.

614
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 1: We'll take Kentucky to cover up the road a good ways,

615
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 1: and I mean a really good ways. In Fayettville, Arkansas.

616
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 1: We got Bama at Arkansas this week. Big line on

617
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 1: this one. I didn't know it, but it had risen

618
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 1: all the way to seventeen and a half to day.

619
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 1: What does that sound like Texas? Yeah, sounds like Bama

620
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:57,680
Speaker 1: at Texas. What happened there? Bama almost got beat by Texas.

621
00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 1: Everyone remembers that, and yet odds makers are aware of

622
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 1: that too, And there they are. They're just they're just

623
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 1: hanging it. They're just hanging us seventeen and a half

624
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:08,479
Speaker 1: in front of it. You want it, you want Arkansas

625
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 1: in seventeen and a half, Take it, buddy, Come on,

626
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 1: jump up, take it. There, you go take it. They

627
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 1: want you to take it. Are we going to take it? Well,

628
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 1: we'll see. I think it was Jimmy Dike's, ironically in

629
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 1: the world of basketball that once said a wounded hog

630
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 1: is a dangerous hog. Jesse, I want you to remember

631
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 1: that a wounded hog is a dangerous hog. Hey me,

632
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 1: Ma used to say the same thing. And they're both right,

633
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 1: Jimmy Diykes and mem A wounded hog a dangerous hog.

634
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 1: And that's exactly what Alabama's gonna face this Saturday, backs

635
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 1: against the wall up there, wounded not wounded animal mode

636
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 1: wounded hog mode and hoops to monkst Us hasn't been

637
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 1: in that position a time or ten in our lives. Alabama.

638
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 1: I don't know where they misplaced that secret road elixir

639
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 1: they used to have, but they don't have it, or

640
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 1: they haven't had it. It used to be that when

641
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 1: Bama played a big game at home, I got kind

642
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 1: of a little bit nervous when they went on the road.

643
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:02,959
Speaker 1: I never had a doubt about them. They were a

644
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 1: better road team than a home team. For quite a while,

645
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:09,880
Speaker 1: that's not been the case. So whatever that little secret

646
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 1: sauce they used to have is, Georgia fans will tell

647
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 1: you it was just Kirby. Whatever it was they used

648
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 1: to have. If they find it this week, they could

649
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 1: drum Arkansas. However, why should I think this is the

650
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 1: week they find it. It wasn't there in Week two.

651
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 1: It wasn't there against Florida or an m or Auburn

652
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 1: last year. So is this the week they find it?

653
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:32,040
Speaker 1: I don't know. I tend to think eventually, one week

654
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:33,720
Speaker 1: they're going to stumble upon it and they're just going

655
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 1: to completely and absolutely splatter someone. But until that day,

656
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 1: let's remain cautious about just laying these massive numbers with

657
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 1: Bama on the road. Nick Saban's been there since two

658
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 1: thousand and seven, and yet there's only one team, one

659
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 1: ranked team that they've put up six hundred and seventy

660
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 1: one yards of total offense against in his entire time

661
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 1: there against ranked teams, who do you think they have

662
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 1: the most single game yard did you get? It's Arkansas

663
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 1: and it was last year. They had six hundred and

664
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 1: seventy one total yards in this game. Bryce threw for

665
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 1: about five hundred and sixty yards and five touchdowns. That's

666
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 1: the first thing that has to change for Arkansas if

667
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 1: they have a shot to pull the upset here. Obviously,

668
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 1: you can't get shredded like that through the air and

669
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 1: stand much of a chance. Now, if I were to

670
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 1: remember where that game was played, it was Tuscaloosis, So

671
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 1: you certainly have home field on your side this year.

672
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 1: I remember back a couple of weeks ago, how shook

673
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 1: Bama's offensive line was. How shook Bama's team was playing

674
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 1: on the road in Austin. You got to create that

675
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 1: kind of environment and you got to let the chips

676
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 1: fall where they may. That's the first thing that has

677
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 1: to change. Here does this arkandas the Arkansas secondary is vulnerable,

678
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 1: everyone knows that. How will Bill O'Brien choose to attack it?

679
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 1: Cause against against Texas, one of the big takeaways coming

680
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 1: out of that is not enough tempo, not enough plays

681
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 1: run the wide receiver corps kind of let him down.

682
00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 1: I told you after that game. I do not expect

683
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 1: those to be season long problems. I think you'll see

684
00:33:05,520 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 1: a little change up this Saturday. Now, whether they execute

685
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 1: or not, totally different story. I think they will attempt

686
00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:14,440
Speaker 1: to go about things a different way this Saturday. Here's

687
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: the second thing Arkansas needs to go a different way

688
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 1: from last year if they're going to compete. I think

689
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 1: they have to double their yards per carry in this game.

690
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 1: Last year Arkansas, that great rushing attack of Arkansas had

691
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 1: two point six yards per carry, and that's not good enough.

692
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 1: They probably need to do something like doubling that number,

693
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 1: among other things, if they're going to pull an out

694
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:36,520
Speaker 1: right upset here. If they're at four and a half

695
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:39,160
Speaker 1: yards per carry or better, that's when we start to

696
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 1: talk about them doing that and then some other things

697
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 1: and then having a shot. If they're not in that

698
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 1: four and a half to five yards per carry range.

699
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 1: The rest of what we're talking about probably a moot point.

700
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 1: You got the ninth best ground game in the country

701
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 1: in Arkansas. That's the good news. The bad news is

702
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 1: Bama's got the fourth best rush defense in the country.

703
00:33:57,200 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 1: Speaking of which, could we just take a time out

704
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 1: for second. I saw our buddy Paul Kuberlick, friend of

705
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 1: the program. I know because he sent me footage of

706
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 1: himself watching the program earlier today. Cole had the Bama

707
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 1: game last week and he put out something earlier today

708
00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 1: and he was just asking if any of those Peak

709
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:18,280
Speaker 1: Golding haters, the fire Peak Golden crowd, are they around

710
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 1: right now? Does anyone know? Because I look on the

711
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,360
Speaker 1: back of every milk carton and I see a fire

712
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 1: Peak Golding person. I haven't seen them in person as

713
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 1: of late. They've kind of disappeared, probably because of the

714
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:33,440
Speaker 1: aforementioned rushing statistic. I just read to you, Bama's defense

715
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 1: been pretty good this year. Here's what would bring them

716
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:39,359
Speaker 1: out of the woodwork pretty quickly. If kJ Jefferson did

717
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 1: what quinn Ewers and even Hudson Card to a degree

718
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 1: started to do against Bama. Just just throw it up,

719
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 1: just take shot plays against him and make those corners

720
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:51,840
Speaker 1: play the ball in the air. What if you find

721
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 1: out that they just that you flag your way fifteen

722
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,640
Speaker 1: yards at a time down the field against Bama's secondary

723
00:34:57,840 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 1: because they can't keep their hands off of your receiver.

724
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 1: That would bring the fire peak Golden crowd out of

725
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 1: the woodwork pretty quickly. I think Terry and Arnold plays

726
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 1: the ball in the air, not as well as any

727
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,280
Speaker 1: corner they have. By the way, he's a true freshman.

728
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 1: That's a little side note that along with a greatly

729
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 1: improved rushing game, those are two really three things that

730
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:18,080
Speaker 1: Arkansas has to do differently this year. Let's take a

731
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 1: look at the model, and let's take a look at

732
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 1: what the Vegas number is. I told you this thing

733
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:23,840
Speaker 1: is inflated all the way to seventeen and a half.

734
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:28,280
Speaker 1: We think it's too big. The model has Bama minus fourteen. Now,

735
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:32,839
Speaker 1: in reality, you know how these games go. There's a

736
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:36,800
Speaker 1: very low probability of Bama actually winning the game by fourteen.

737
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,279
Speaker 1: This is an aggregation of one hundred simulations and it

738
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:43,720
Speaker 1: comes out to Bama minus fourteen on average. What happens

739
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:45,840
Speaker 1: here is you got a bunch of games in the

740
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 1: bag here, and some of them are Bama narrowly winning,

741
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,640
Speaker 1: and some of them are Bama blowouts, and then it

742
00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:55,279
Speaker 1: all averages out to Bama minus fourteen. But that's what

743
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 1: we have to go on. So I'm going to take

744
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:59,759
Speaker 1: Alabama to win the game, but I am absolutely not

745
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 1: lay in seventeen and a half until I see them

746
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 1: re establish themselves on the road. So I will take

747
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 1: Arkansas to cover. Now question is going to become are

748
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 1: we going to be adults in talking about Arkansas after that?

749
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:14,399
Speaker 1: Or are we going to be a you are what

750
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 1: your record says, you are casual and dismiss them entirely,

751
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:20,280
Speaker 1: knowing good and well, had they played North Carolina schedule

752
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 1: so far, they'd be undefeated. Choose you this day which

753
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 1: ideology you will go by. But as for me and

754
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:32,359
Speaker 1: my household here, we will use common sense twenty four

755
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 1: to fifteen. I think Joshua twenty four to fifteen a

756
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:36,800
Speaker 1: version of it, but we're using it for college football.

757
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:40,319
Speaker 1: They're watching us in Moreno Valley, California. They're watching us

758
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 1: in Newark, Ohio, and Aberdeen, Mississippi, Jesse. What did you

759
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:47,880
Speaker 1: just say in my ear? Oh? Yeah, okay, do me

760
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 1: and Jesse and Colin a favor cause these chawl I

761
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 1: ain't free. Please like the video. I'm gonna give you

762
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 1: five seconds to do it. No, I'm not. That's a

763
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:58,400
Speaker 1: waste of time. Please like the video and subscribe to

764
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 1: the channel. And that's it. That's all. We move on.

765
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:04,879
Speaker 1: I am looking forward to this game a whole lot.

766
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:08,560
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna apologize. I'm gonna take a sip of

767
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 1: Colebrew and I'm gonna apologize. Oklahoma State plays Baylor Saturday.

768
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:16,839
Speaker 1: This is gonna be a great game. I have no

769
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 1: doubt it's gonna be a great game. It's a three

770
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:22,800
Speaker 1: thirty kickoff on Fox, so it's like Big three thirty kickoff,

771
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:27,239
Speaker 1: Big mid afternoon kickoff. This is a Big twelve championship

772
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 1: game rematch. And I apologize that we're not going to

773
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:33,520
Speaker 1: be there. I really do. I love both programs. I mean,

774
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:35,800
Speaker 1: I have professed my love for Mike Gundy as recently

775
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 1: as this past week, and you know that I would.

776
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,880
Speaker 1: I mean I would just I would room together with

777
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:42,759
Speaker 1: Dave Rand at this point. If he fell on hard

778
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 1: times he needed a place to stay, I'd have a

779
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:47,319
Speaker 1: couch for him. I'd take the couch. He could take

780
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:49,880
Speaker 1: the bedroom. That'd be fine. I think that this is

781
00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 1: going to be a phenomenal game, two of the best

782
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 1: programs in the Big Twelve to the most underrated programs

783
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 1: in America. I want to do two things here. The

784
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 1: first thing I want you to do is remember how

785
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 1: this thing ended in the Big Twelve Championship game last year.

786
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 1: It was one of the great moments of the season.

787
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,839
Speaker 1: To me, I mean, you've got you've got a goal

788
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 1: line situation in Oklahoma State runs for the corner pile line.

789
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 1: I can't remember which player it was, and Baylor gets

790
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:17,480
Speaker 1: the stop, zero's on the clock. They win the Big

791
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 1: Twelve Championship that way. I was at the SEC Championship game.

792
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:23,319
Speaker 1: As a chorus of you say, of course you were.

793
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:26,160
Speaker 1: I was at the SEC Championship game, and I was

794
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 1: standing next to a good friend of the program, Stuart McNair,

795
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 1: who's also the guy that Irv Smith trucked in the

796
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 1: end zone when Tua hit Davante for the National Championship

797
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:36,960
Speaker 1: win and then earth Smith trucked the guy. You've seen

798
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 1: that a thousand times. It was Stuart. So I'm standing

799
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 1: next to him in the bowels of Mercedes Benz Stadium,

800
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 1: which are pretty nice cause they're new bowels, you know.

801
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:49,720
Speaker 1: And man, I remember the reaction. I mean, I yelled

802
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 1: at the TV and you got probably the most raw,

803
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 1: guttural bit of emotion from me that day. And we

804
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 1: were about to watch an SEC championship game in person.

805
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 1: But wow, look at that replay. That's how the Big

806
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 1: Twelve Championship game ended last year. And then David Randa's heartbeat,

807
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:08,880
Speaker 1: much like Hannibal Lecter, never got above eighty five. Just

808
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 1: total assassin over there, totally cerebral. But that is college football.

809
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:16,359
Speaker 1: That was great. So this is a rematch of that game.

810
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 1: The next thing I want you to do is take

811
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 1: a look at these odds that Jesse and Colin have

812
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:23,879
Speaker 1: the current up to date as of this moment, Big

813
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 1: Twelve Championship odds, and these it's a doozy to look at.

814
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:31,960
Speaker 1: Baylor is the current favorite, but I think Colin are

815
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:35,239
Speaker 1: they co favorites? Are they favorites? I think they are,

816
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:38,720
Speaker 1: so they're co favorites. So Baylor and OU right now

817
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 1: are co favorites to win the Big Twelve. They're at

818
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:45,879
Speaker 1: plus three to twenty five each. Oklahoma State very close

819
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:49,720
Speaker 1: behind at plus four hundred, and basically that's just Vegas

820
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:52,799
Speaker 1: saying it's anybody's ballgame. When the favorites are plus three

821
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 1: twenty five, it's anybody's ball game. To give you a comparison,

822
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 1: Ohio State is like minus several hundred to win the

823
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:03,240
Speaker 1: Big Ten. So there is a very big favorite some places,

824
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 1: and there's not one right now here, but these are

825
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 1: two of them. Oklahoma State is rested. They did not

826
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 1: play last week, and Baylor was up in ames Iowa

827
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:12,840
Speaker 1: getting a close win against Iowa State. So you do

828
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:15,839
Speaker 1: have the rested versus road weary theory here in play

829
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:18,239
Speaker 1: if you want to subscribe to that. To me, the

830
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:20,759
Speaker 1: most important player in this game is Spencer Sanders. That's

831
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:22,719
Speaker 1: the Oklahoma State quarterback. And I'm gonna tell you why.

832
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:26,440
Speaker 1: Since the start of the twenty twenty one season against

833
00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 1: teams not named Baylor, he has a twenty nine to

834
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:34,239
Speaker 1: six touchdown to interception ratio. That's really good, isn't it. Yes,

835
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 1: it is children. And then Baylor walks in the door

836
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:42,279
Speaker 1: and his touchdown to i int ratio against Baylor is

837
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:46,280
Speaker 1: one to seven. He had three picks in the regular

838
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:48,839
Speaker 1: season game last year and had four more of them

839
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 1: in the Big Twelve Championship game. Something tells me, if

840
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:54,680
Speaker 1: you cut back on that, you give yourself a really

841
00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:56,640
Speaker 1: good chance to win. And you're not getting that kind

842
00:40:56,680 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 1: of analysis anywhere else. Only here can we tell you

843
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,879
Speaker 1: that turning the ball over is not conducive to winning

844
00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 1: football games. Blake Shapen, quarterback there for Baylor. Plenty good enough.

845
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 1: Here's another piece of breaking news that you're not getting

846
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 1: anywhere else. When you don't pressure him. He's plenty good

847
00:41:12,520 --> 00:41:14,800
Speaker 1: enough to win. Now he's not putting up Heisman numbers.

848
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:17,719
Speaker 1: Plenty good enough to win. The big test for this

849
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:22,240
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State defense is they've only recorded seventeen QB hurries

850
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:25,200
Speaker 1: this year. Jim Knowles, the defensive coordinator there. He went

851
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 1: to Columbus, Ohio, and the big question is, as he

852
00:41:28,600 --> 00:41:30,319
Speaker 1: took some of his players with him, how are they

853
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:32,640
Speaker 1: going to be this year? So far, they've been okay,

854
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:36,640
Speaker 1: but it's hard to forget those points that Central Michigan

855
00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 1: hung on them. Didn't matter because they won the game.

856
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:40,360
Speaker 1: But you tuck that in the back of your mind,

857
00:41:40,719 --> 00:41:43,240
Speaker 1: and now they head out on the road and you wonder,

858
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:45,920
Speaker 1: can they get after the quarterback enough and if they can't,

859
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:49,360
Speaker 1: does Blake Shapon have just a good enough afternoon to

860
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 1: where Baylor can get themselves a twenty six to twenty

861
00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 1: three kind of win, Which brings me to my next point,

862
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 1: and that is the line on this game, and it

863
00:41:57,600 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 1: is what the model thinks about this game. The line

864
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 1: is basically home field. It's Baylor minus two and a half.

865
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:06,759
Speaker 1: And you could argue maybe a half point here and there.

866
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 1: Baylor minus two and a half is your line right now.

867
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 1: The model is much more extended. It has a decided

868
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 1: lean on this game, and it is Baylor minus six.

869
00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 1: So the model is big on the Bears here, and

870
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 1: I have no reason not to ride with it. And

871
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:24,480
Speaker 1: I'll apologize to Mike Gundy if I'm wrong, But we

872
00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:26,759
Speaker 1: are going to take Baylor to win the game, and

873
00:42:26,840 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 1: we're gonna take Baylor to cover the game, because at

874
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:30,239
Speaker 1: the end of the day, I do not think they're

875
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:32,319
Speaker 1: gonna be able to get after the quarterback enough. You're

876
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:35,279
Speaker 1: not in a hostile environment if you're Baylor, and even

877
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:37,280
Speaker 1: if they are, they took care of business last week.

878
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:39,399
Speaker 1: I think Baylor's gonna win this game, and I think

879
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:41,880
Speaker 1: they're gonna cover. I think it could very well be

880
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:45,200
Speaker 1: a preview of yet another rematch later on this year.

881
00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 1: We have to have a little discussion here, and this

882
00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:51,840
Speaker 1: is gonna be some tough love, but it's gonna be necessary.

883
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 1: Casuals need exit the door right now. Thank you for

884
00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:58,600
Speaker 1: stumbling your way onto the show, but this is not

885
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:00,839
Speaker 1: gonna be a segment for you here. Let me juice

886
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:07,120
Speaker 1: up right quick. So I think we have a tweet. Actually,

887
00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:09,759
Speaker 1: take a look at what one of you asked me.

888
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:14,000
Speaker 1: One of you asked me, is there SEC homersm within

889
00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 1: the every given Saturday tour? And this has been a

890
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:19,399
Speaker 1: problem we've been dealing well, it's been something we've been

891
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 1: dealing with for about the past two or three weeks because,

892
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:25,320
Speaker 1: as you know, we just choose wherever we want to

893
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 1: go on Saturdays, and we've been very SEC heavy so

894
00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 1: far this year. Some of you also claim that we

895
00:43:32,040 --> 00:43:34,840
Speaker 1: talked just SEC too much in general on the channel.

896
00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:37,840
Speaker 1: So I'm going to break this to you as simply

897
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:40,319
Speaker 1: and as softly but firmly same time as I can.

898
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:44,240
Speaker 1: When I got here and they let us do this show,

899
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:47,759
Speaker 1: I remember the very first show we did, I made

900
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:49,560
Speaker 1: a promise to you and I said it's going to

901
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:51,840
Speaker 1: be your show. I'm going to be the one talking,

902
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:54,840
Speaker 1: but I will not have my hands on the steering wheel.

903
00:43:55,040 --> 00:43:58,000
Speaker 1: That'll be you. You will totally program and format our

904
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:00,800
Speaker 1: show for us. We're just gonna follow you. I said

905
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 1: the same thing when we started it independently back in Columbus.

906
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:06,719
Speaker 1: I said, I want this to be a national college

907
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 1: football show, but I'm ultimately going to follow you. In

908
00:44:10,040 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 1: my perfect world, everybody cares about every conference the exact same.

909
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:18,200
Speaker 1: In my perfect world, we could talk about Oregon versus

910
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:20,799
Speaker 1: Washington State last week every bit as long as we

911
00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 1: talked about fill in the blank, I mean, whatever we

912
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:25,960
Speaker 1: talked about last week. That would be a perfect world

913
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 1: to me, because I'm about the least biased person in

914
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 1: this room right now. I want to talk about all

915
00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:35,239
Speaker 1: the regions. I've shared my feelings on what my utopian

916
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:38,520
Speaker 1: college football world is, but that's not reality. The reality

917
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:41,480
Speaker 1: is some places they care more. Some places dare I say,

918
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:46,319
Speaker 1: it just means more, and we follow them. So when

919
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 1: I say that it's your show, I literally mean it's

920
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:50,920
Speaker 1: your show. And what we've done and what we will

921
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:54,000
Speaker 1: continue to do, is we will track every bit of

922
00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:57,839
Speaker 1: data that is ingested by this YouTube channel and our

923
00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:00,879
Speaker 1: podcast feed. We know what you want, we know what

924
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 1: you listen to, we know how long you listen to it.

925
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:06,080
Speaker 1: We know where you are geographically when you're listening to

926
00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 1: it and watching it, and we know what you click on,

927
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:10,960
Speaker 1: and we know what has the higher click through rates.

928
00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:13,360
Speaker 1: We know what has the longer viewer or listener duration

929
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:17,719
Speaker 1: or audience retention in our world. And therefore this is

930
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 1: not a charity, it's a business. We follow you. Colin

931
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:24,200
Speaker 1: has a little helpful graphic for me if you don't

932
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 1: buy what I'm talking about. We had a show Sunday night.

933
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 1: It was a reaction show. We always do the same

934
00:45:29,600 --> 00:45:33,479
Speaker 1: format on Sunday Night. We cut six individual videos from

935
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 1: that show, and you're looking at him. If you're watching

936
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:39,720
Speaker 1: on YouTube right now, you're looking at that home screen,

937
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:42,880
Speaker 1: and you're looking at a video about Texas getting upset,

938
00:45:42,920 --> 00:45:45,799
Speaker 1: and you're looking at Ohio State rolling, and you're looking

939
00:45:45,840 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 1: at an A and m Arkansas video Miami got upset.

940
00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:52,319
Speaker 1: There's a Tennessee, Florida video there. All of those did

941
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:55,399
Speaker 1: twenty thousand or more views. Then we did Clemson Wake

942
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:59,240
Speaker 1: Forest and it's sitting there south of six thousand views.

943
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:01,640
Speaker 1: Now that that is a microcosm a lot of times

944
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:03,279
Speaker 1: of what we deal with when we're stacking the show

945
00:46:03,320 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 1: and formatting the shows. We know ahead of time there

946
00:46:06,520 --> 00:46:08,719
Speaker 1: are some things that aren't going to get much traction. Now, again,

947
00:46:08,760 --> 00:46:10,759
Speaker 1: if this were an independent channel and I was just

948
00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:14,400
Speaker 1: out there doing this for fun, it wouldn't matter. But

949
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:18,160
Speaker 1: you see all this backing we get, we get Academy

950
00:46:18,160 --> 00:46:20,560
Speaker 1: on board, we got CBS right in the checks for us.

951
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 1: In return, they want just that return on investment. And

952
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:27,840
Speaker 1: so I simply ask you, what would you do this

953
00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:29,879
Speaker 1: were your show? What would you do if this were

954
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 1: your channel? And those are not unique results. That's how

955
00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:35,920
Speaker 1: it works pretty much every time. How would you shape

956
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 1: and format the show? That's the first thing I asked.

957
00:46:38,239 --> 00:46:40,919
Speaker 1: Second thing, as it relates to the every given Saturday tour,

958
00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 1: we've been very SEC heavy. We have there are two

959
00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:48,520
Speaker 1: edges that SEC games or games in the South have.

960
00:46:49,000 --> 00:46:52,799
Speaker 1: I will admit this. Number one proximity, but number two,

961
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:57,239
Speaker 1: on average, passion is just higher in the SEC. They

962
00:46:57,280 --> 00:46:59,399
Speaker 1: don't have the market cornered on it. I'm not saying

963
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:02,320
Speaker 1: they do. I'm saying if you've ever been around college football,

964
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:04,280
Speaker 1: you know what I'm saying is true. There's a third

965
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:07,480
Speaker 1: thing too, The quality overall of football is better than

966
00:47:07,480 --> 00:47:10,400
Speaker 1: the SEC. They don't have the market cornered on good football.

967
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:13,760
Speaker 1: I'm saying, on average, you got more big time games

968
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:16,200
Speaker 1: down there. So when we're sitting here every Saturday in

969
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:19,120
Speaker 1: Nashville and we're deciding where to go, knowing we have

970
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:22,919
Speaker 1: to get back here for a Sunday show, it's hard

971
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:24,400
Speaker 1: to go to the West Coast. Now, I still want

972
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:25,839
Speaker 1: to go out there, It's hard to get out there.

973
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 1: So you get an edge the closer you are to Nashville. Secondly,

974
00:47:29,760 --> 00:47:31,919
Speaker 1: we're trying to get to the best environments. We're trying

975
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:33,279
Speaker 1: to see the most teams. We're trying to see the

976
00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:35,440
Speaker 1: best matchups so far this year, that's the way it

977
00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:38,200
Speaker 1: has shaken out. Now, if you'll look at last year,

978
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:40,399
Speaker 1: because this is the map, this is where we went

979
00:47:40,480 --> 00:47:42,920
Speaker 1: last year. We went to Iowa, Iowa State. We went

980
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:45,600
Speaker 1: up to Penn State. They played Auburn, but wouldn't really matter.

981
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:47,160
Speaker 1: We would have gone up there in Week three anyway.

982
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:50,319
Speaker 1: We went to ou Texas. We went to Michigan, Michigan State.

983
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:52,799
Speaker 1: We went to OU Baylor, we went to Michigan State,

984
00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:54,759
Speaker 1: Ohio State. We went to Ohio State, Michigan. We went

985
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:57,759
Speaker 1: all over the place last year. Why because the criteria

986
00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:00,239
Speaker 1: and the circumstances dictated that it was fine for us

987
00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:02,080
Speaker 1: to do so. It hasn't been that way so far

988
00:48:02,120 --> 00:48:04,800
Speaker 1: this year. Now, I will give you a little spoiler.

989
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:06,880
Speaker 1: I've looked down the road at the schedule. Things are

990
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:08,719
Speaker 1: about to rapidly change, So I don't think we'll be

991
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:11,560
Speaker 1: dealing with claims of sec Homerism on the every given

992
00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:14,560
Speaker 1: Saturday tour much longer. But here's what I'm saying. It's

993
00:48:14,600 --> 00:48:17,520
Speaker 1: as simple as this. If you want the formatting of

994
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:20,719
Speaker 1: the show to change, you will change it. I will

995
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:23,160
Speaker 1: just follow you. That's what we've always done on the show.

996
00:48:23,360 --> 00:48:25,960
Speaker 1: That's what we will continue to do. And I'm not

997
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:30,000
Speaker 1: saying that sarcastically. I really really mean. I love to

998
00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:32,160
Speaker 1: spend more time talking about the Big Twelve. Would love

999
00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:34,759
Speaker 1: to spend more time talking about the Pac twelve. But

1000
00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:37,440
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna do it to silence a few people

1001
00:48:37,480 --> 00:48:40,560
Speaker 1: on Twitter. I'm gonna do it because big enough amounts

1002
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:44,120
Speaker 1: of you, through your traffic and habits, tell me that

1003
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:47,480
Speaker 1: you want it. So as I tend to say, at

1004
00:48:47,480 --> 00:48:50,239
Speaker 1: the conclusion of these kinds of segments, our balls are

1005
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:53,759
Speaker 1: in your court. Now we have to address something that's

1006
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 1: even more pressing, and it's oh boy, it can it

1007
00:48:57,640 --> 00:49:01,720
Speaker 1: can conflict you if you care about but also college football.

1008
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 1: So Jay hit us up and he said, what are

1009
00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 1: your thoughts on Texas Tech being fined for field storming? Backstory,

1010
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:11,520
Speaker 1: of course is Texas Tech just beat Texas and it

1011
00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:14,040
Speaker 1: was an upset and it's big. It's Joey Maguire's first

1012
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 1: year out there as head coach, and the place was

1013
00:49:16,640 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 1: psyched and they stormed the field. They got the big whim.

1014
00:49:20,080 --> 00:49:24,919
Speaker 1: There comes the mascot. And you watch this, and if

1015
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:28,920
Speaker 1: you are a red blooded college football fan, it's beautiful.

1016
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:31,120
Speaker 1: Not if you're a Texas fan, but if you're not

1017
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 1: attached to the universities, you watch this and it's fun.

1018
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:37,360
Speaker 1: Nobody else has this. They don't do this in pro sports.

1019
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:41,880
Speaker 1: This only happens in college football college basketball. And so

1020
00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:44,600
Speaker 1: I watched that. Again, if I'm not a Texas fan,

1021
00:49:44,880 --> 00:49:48,440
Speaker 1: that's a beautiful site to me, and to me it

1022
00:49:48,560 --> 00:49:50,640
Speaker 1: is one of the essential parts of the fabric of

1023
00:49:50,680 --> 00:49:54,279
Speaker 1: college football. But it does not come without risk and

1024
00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 1: there was a loser. Let's just call it like it is.

1025
00:49:57,400 --> 00:50:00,319
Speaker 1: There was a loser this past Saturday that came and

1026
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:02,800
Speaker 1: trucked one of the Texas players, and we've got footage

1027
00:50:02,800 --> 00:50:05,839
Speaker 1: of it right here and there he goes, and that's

1028
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:08,680
Speaker 1: about the only footage that was captured. But luckily someone

1029
00:50:08,680 --> 00:50:11,120
Speaker 1: did get that footage. I'm gonna address this in a second.

1030
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:14,600
Speaker 1: Here's the problem with field storming. I'm shocked this hasn't

1031
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:19,680
Speaker 1: already happened before. Stunned because you know, ninety five percent

1032
00:50:19,680 --> 00:50:21,440
Speaker 1: of people coming on that field just want to come

1033
00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:23,759
Speaker 1: down there, take a selfie themselves, be part of that

1034
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:26,600
Speaker 1: spider cam shot, and they want to celebrate. They don't

1035
00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:30,000
Speaker 1: mean anyone any harm. The problem is five percent of

1036
00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:33,799
Speaker 1: our population is this dude, and the five percent, as

1037
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:36,280
Speaker 1: is usually the case, screw it up for the ninety

1038
00:50:36,280 --> 00:50:38,480
Speaker 1: five percent. I'm gonna give you a phone number right quick.

1039
00:50:38,480 --> 00:50:41,440
Speaker 1: By the way, this is the Texas Tech Police Department,

1040
00:50:41,800 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 1: eight oh six seven four to two thirty nine thirty one.

1041
00:50:46,480 --> 00:50:49,440
Speaker 1: I'll send a chalice of supremacy to anyone who outs

1042
00:50:49,480 --> 00:50:51,759
Speaker 1: that dude, because the sooner you can get people like

1043
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:54,359
Speaker 1: that out of your crowd, the better. Off you are,

1044
00:50:55,280 --> 00:50:59,680
Speaker 1: and I'm all for field storming, all for it safely,

1045
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:02,400
Speaker 1: and there's a safe way to do it. Let the

1046
00:51:02,520 --> 00:51:05,320
Speaker 1: losing team get off the field. You just beat them.

1047
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:08,560
Speaker 1: So trust me, they're far more humiliated about that than

1048
00:51:08,560 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 1: they ever would you told, cocking them in the back.

1049
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:13,560
Speaker 1: And secondly, you are going to ruin a very good

1050
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:16,759
Speaker 1: thing if you continue to act like that. So the

1051
00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:19,040
Speaker 1: fine is the fine A city Bank. By the way,

1052
00:51:19,080 --> 00:51:21,240
Speaker 1: do we have the tweet colin City Bank in Lubbock

1053
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:24,520
Speaker 1: stepped up. This is via front off the sports. Texas

1054
00:51:24,560 --> 00:51:26,960
Speaker 1: Tech got fined fifty grand by the Big twelve for

1055
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:30,239
Speaker 1: the field storming, and immediately following the announcement, fans asked

1056
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:32,879
Speaker 1: if they could help. And now Lubbock based City Bank

1057
00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 1: has announced it's gonna step up and it's gonna cover

1058
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:37,960
Speaker 1: the entirety of the fine that is paid state material.

1059
00:51:38,120 --> 00:51:40,360
Speaker 1: Hats off to City Bank. If I ever moved to Lubbock,

1060
00:51:40,400 --> 00:51:42,360
Speaker 1: I will do business with you guys. You have my

1061
00:51:42,400 --> 00:51:44,719
Speaker 1: word on that, if I ever moved to Lubbock. But

1062
00:51:44,760 --> 00:51:47,800
Speaker 1: in the meantime, the fine is not the big deal. Okay,

1063
00:51:47,960 --> 00:51:50,680
Speaker 1: it's kind of symbolic. No one cares about that, even

1064
00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:53,040
Speaker 1: in the SEC. I think they find you six figures.

1065
00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:56,120
Speaker 1: No one cares. It always mysteriously gets taken care of.

1066
00:51:56,840 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 1: It's worth it, the content alone, the visual. It's worth it,

1067
00:52:01,239 --> 00:52:03,160
Speaker 1: and it's part of college football. It's part of the fabric.

1068
00:52:03,640 --> 00:52:07,280
Speaker 1: Don't be making physical contact with other players or other coaches.

1069
00:52:07,320 --> 00:52:10,520
Speaker 1: Don't be a loser. Don't be that dude who costs

1070
00:52:10,520 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 1: it for everyone. Don't mess this up. We saw three

1071
00:52:13,760 --> 00:52:16,520
Speaker 1: or four field stormings last year and it was great.

1072
00:52:17,239 --> 00:52:20,920
Speaker 1: It was a phenomenal environment every time. Don't be messing

1073
00:52:20,920 --> 00:52:23,759
Speaker 1: it up for me selfishly, don't be messing it up. Okay,

1074
00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:26,279
Speaker 1: we got some more Raminudle Express best bets. We had

1075
00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:28,760
Speaker 1: a winning week last week. That's only if you watched

1076
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:32,759
Speaker 1: Friday night lines at late kick Josh on Instagram. Finally,

1077
00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:36,200
Speaker 1: I got some of you dming me saying I opened

1078
00:52:36,280 --> 00:52:38,080
Speaker 1: up an Instagram account just to watch it. What do

1079
00:52:38,120 --> 00:52:40,920
Speaker 1: I do? And that's smart. I'm not asking you to

1080
00:52:40,960 --> 00:52:43,040
Speaker 1: surf the app all day. I'm just saying there is

1081
00:52:43,080 --> 00:52:47,000
Speaker 1: a very specific reason why I only do that broadcast

1082
00:52:47,239 --> 00:52:49,799
Speaker 1: on Instagram Live. It's like twenty minutes long. I do

1083
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:52,440
Speaker 1: it on Friday nights. I give you about an hour's

1084
00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:54,279
Speaker 1: worth of a heads up and then I do it

1085
00:52:54,320 --> 00:52:56,840
Speaker 1: on Friday night. There is a reason for that. I

1086
00:52:56,840 --> 00:52:58,960
Speaker 1: don't have time to explain it. There's a reason I'm

1087
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:00,759
Speaker 1: not putting that on all the plays. It's just not

1088
00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:02,880
Speaker 1: the way it's gonna work. So if you want access

1089
00:53:02,880 --> 00:53:06,239
Speaker 1: to that, it's free. Just make sure you're following me

1090
00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:08,520
Speaker 1: on Instagram at lake kick Josh. Okay, here are the

1091
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:12,520
Speaker 1: games we're already on this week. Iowa plus ten Mississippi State.

1092
00:53:12,560 --> 00:53:15,360
Speaker 1: We got them at minus two. That numbers all. It's

1093
00:53:15,440 --> 00:53:18,879
Speaker 1: up to four now, it's already crossed three Florida State

1094
00:53:18,880 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 1: and minus five is when we got on it. It's

1095
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:23,440
Speaker 1: already up to seven now. This is why we move

1096
00:53:23,480 --> 00:53:26,520
Speaker 1: on these games early Liberty minus two. They're playing Old Dominion,

1097
00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:30,240
Speaker 1: not the Free Company. Okay, new games here. There's probably

1098
00:53:30,400 --> 00:53:32,320
Speaker 1: no team that the Model has had a better grip

1099
00:53:32,360 --> 00:53:34,960
Speaker 1: on than Eastern Michigan. We're going to continue to ride

1100
00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:37,200
Speaker 1: with Eastern Michigan because the Model loves them to win

1101
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:40,080
Speaker 1: by like twenty four points. This week they're laying nineteen

1102
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:43,719
Speaker 1: and a half against UMass. We're gonna lay nineteen and

1103
00:53:43,719 --> 00:53:47,360
Speaker 1: a half with Michigan or with Eastern Michigan. And since

1104
00:53:47,360 --> 00:53:49,719
Speaker 1: it worked for us last week, we're going to go

1105
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:52,360
Speaker 1: back to the well and we're going to bette Virginia

1106
00:53:52,440 --> 00:53:54,719
Speaker 1: plus two and a half on the road against Duke.

1107
00:53:54,760 --> 00:53:57,480
Speaker 1: We think the wrong team is favored. We think Virginia

1108
00:53:57,520 --> 00:54:00,200
Speaker 1: will win outright. So those are two added bets night,

1109
00:54:00,280 --> 00:54:02,920
Speaker 1: Virginia plus two and a half, Eastern Michigan minus nineteen

1110
00:54:02,920 --> 00:54:05,239
Speaker 1: and a half. And that's on top of Liberty minus two,

1111
00:54:05,360 --> 00:54:10,040
Speaker 1: FSU minus five, Mississippi State minus two, and Iowa plus ten.

1112
00:54:11,000 --> 00:54:13,399
Speaker 1: It perturbs me as we go off the air here

1113
00:54:13,719 --> 00:54:17,920
Speaker 1: that we're at nine hundred and thirty seven likes. So

1114
00:54:18,040 --> 00:54:20,040
Speaker 1: let's just go ahead and click that thumbs up button

1115
00:54:20,080 --> 00:54:23,720
Speaker 1: and get us over one thousand, cause if we don't, Jesse,

1116
00:54:24,640 --> 00:54:26,840
Speaker 1: to some of you is not a real person, but

1117
00:54:26,960 --> 00:54:30,200
Speaker 1: to me, I know he is. And he's never more cranky,

1118
00:54:30,400 --> 00:54:33,800
Speaker 1: unnecessarily so aggravatingly so than when we don't get a

1119
00:54:33,840 --> 00:54:37,480
Speaker 1: thousand lines. So if you don't do it for yourself,

1120
00:54:37,480 --> 00:54:40,719
Speaker 1: he's doing me. Thank you, And as we'll be back

1121
00:54:40,719 --> 00:54:44,919
Speaker 1: here same time Thursday night. Until then, subscribe to the pod,

1122
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:47,440
Speaker 1: Subscribe to the YouTube channel for a director column for

1123
00:54:47,560 --> 00:54:50,080
Speaker 1: producer Jesse, I'm Josh Baby, take care. Thanks so much

1124
00:54:50,120 --> 00:54:51,719
Speaker 1: for watching it, listening and God miss