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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go, Fredday in the corn.

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Speaker 3: Ten seconds of maining, so just go show under the basket,

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Speaker 3: Under the basket.

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Speaker 2: It's the truth for the wind.

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Speaker 1: God make amarracle. I just chop the water.

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Speaker 4: Hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 1: What's up the generation?

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Speaker 5: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by

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Speaker 5: Bett ANDGM. This is the Sweet sixteen College basketball betting Preview.

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Speaker 5: I'm stuck in joining me for today's episode, or Mike

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Speaker 5: and Mike, Mike Calapriest and Mike Randall. Today we will

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Speaker 5: go through all eight Sweet sixteen games, four on Thursday night,

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Speaker 5: four on Friday night, and we have some juicy matchups.

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Speaker 5: It was a shocky first weekend, best start for favorites

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Speaker 5: since two thousand and eight, double digit favorites fifteen and

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Speaker 5: two against the spread. If you got the best number,

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Speaker 5: best ever start the tournament, top four seeds twenty two

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Speaker 5: and eight against the spread, also the best ever. It's

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Speaker 5: the third tournament where chalk went fifteen and one are

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Speaker 5: better in round two, joining two thousand and nine. In

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Speaker 5: tw twenty nineteen, For what it's worth, two to one

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Speaker 5: seeds made the final four in two thousand and nine,

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Speaker 5: but only one made it in twenty nineteen. That was Virginia,

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Speaker 5: which ended up winning the national title. And for what

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Speaker 5: it's worth, the Sweet sixteen has been a best round

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Speaker 5: for underdogs over the past five tournaments. So maybe we

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Speaker 5: get some barking dogs. We're gonna break every game down

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Speaker 5: in chronological order, and well, you know, the lack of

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Speaker 5: upsets was a little bit disappointing. What that means is

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Speaker 5: you get the best possible matchups in the Sweet sixteen,

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Speaker 5: Elite eight, Final four, and ultimately national title. So before

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Speaker 5: we jump in, Randolph, throw it to you. How are

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Speaker 5: you feeling ahead of the Sweet sixteen.

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Speaker 2: I feel good. My Clemson Tigers keep rolling and I

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Speaker 2: don't think we're done yet. We had a couple upsets early.

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Speaker 2: Everybody wants the upsets early, want the blue bloods l

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Speaker 2: like and that's why I think we're headed towards we

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Speaker 2: could have some epic Elite eight matchups. Only once stuck.

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Speaker 2: I'm mad about wh didn't get the Sweet sixteen. Of course,

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Speaker 2: was Auburn Yukon, which would have been great, But Bruce

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Speaker 2: Pearl doesn't know how to scheme to stop James Pulakidis,

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Speaker 2: I guess which is fine until Unlet's Jake Chad Baker

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Speaker 2: Massarro went out that through his game plan off. But

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Speaker 2: other than that, we have some really good matchups. Could

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Speaker 2: have Yukon, Iowa State, Purdue Tennessee, could have Houston Marquette,

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Speaker 2: so it could be a great, great weekend.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mentioned twenty nineteen Favorites actually went sixteen and

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Speaker 5: oh straight up in the second round. In twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 5: we had one of the best Elite eights ever. Two

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Speaker 5: games went to overtime. Michigan State beat Duke by one.

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Speaker 5: I think the only Elite eight that was better for

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Speaker 5: my money was two thousand and five, in which I

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Speaker 5: think three of the four games went to overtime. Just

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Speaker 5: an epic tournament. Two thousand and five one of my

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Speaker 5: favorite tournaments ever, as far as drama is concerned. Calbary is,

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Speaker 5: how you feeling ahead of the Sweet sixteen.

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Speaker 6: I'm feeling great.

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Speaker 3: The two thousand and five callback, I think that was

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Speaker 3: the days when they used to have like the unique

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Speaker 3: courts as opposed to like everything's all sanitized. It al

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Speaker 3: says march Madness in the middle of the court. That

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Speaker 3: was the Arizona Illinois comeback, correct, yep?

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Speaker 5: I uh that though. That's the one thing I didn't

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Speaker 5: like about that tournament. I had a future on Arizona

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Speaker 5: who blew a fifteen point lead and they ended up losing.

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Speaker 5: It was just an epic meltdown, great game. It lost

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Speaker 5: in overtime ninety to eighty nine. And I love that

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Speaker 5: team Selim Staudamayer, who had an off shooting night. That

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Speaker 5: game was just so fun to watch in that year. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: two thousand and five doesn't four does. Seleem Stademayer shot

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Speaker 5: fifty over fifty percent from three on six and a

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Speaker 5: half attempts per game, ninety one percent from the line,

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Speaker 5: fifty point four percent from three, and over fifty percent

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Speaker 5: from the field, and then but he had an off

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Speaker 5: shooting night. I also, this was back when this was

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Speaker 5: college college days for me. I used to fill out

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Speaker 5: a bunch of the ten allowed on ESPN.

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Speaker 1: I was number one overall.

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Speaker 5: Headed into that game, and I was like doing the

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Speaker 5: math on all the all the brackets. We're in the

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Speaker 5: one hundred percentile with me, and I'm pretty sure I

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Speaker 5: would have won it if if Arizona won at all.

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Speaker 5: So that was the flame mode, but awesome game. Go

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Speaker 5: on YouTube and watch that if you are not as

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Speaker 5: old as us. Crazy crazy game. But that was just

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Speaker 5: an awesome tournament.

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Speaker 6: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: As a callback to that, I was at Miszoo as

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Speaker 3: a freshman and EA Sports used to bring like a

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Speaker 3: traveling tour you could play in tournaments for their video games,

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Speaker 3: and they had their March Madness video game and I

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Speaker 3: made it into like the Elite eight on campus and.

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Speaker 6: I played with Arizona that year.

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Speaker 3: That was like my team, and this kid sits dound

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Speaker 3: next to me and we're just making small talk before

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Speaker 3: the game starts, and I was like, I just love

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Speaker 3: this point guard, Mustafa sh Court. It's like such a

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Speaker 3: ridiculous name.

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Speaker 6: And I was like, I'm Mike.

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Speaker 3: By the way, what's your name is, like Mustapha. I

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Speaker 3: was like, no, that that's really funny. His name was Mistafa.

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Speaker 3: So he ended he got in my head before even

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Speaker 3: tip off of that one. Ended up getting booted in

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Speaker 3: the Elite eight myself, so I got to join the

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Speaker 3: real life Wildcats. But yeah, I agree that game is

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Speaker 3: absolutely bananas. I think they played in Chicago onto Paul's

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Speaker 3: Court for that one.

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Speaker 6: One of the best March badest games of all time.

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Speaker 5: Mustapha Chakour. I'm sure du Bundo knows this, but Montgomery

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Speaker 5: County guy? When would pet pa outside of Philly?

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Speaker 6: Kid?

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Speaker 1: All right, anyway, enough about we're.

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Speaker 5: Losing all of our listeners who are under the age

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Speaker 5: of thirty. All right, let's let's get to games. We'll

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Speaker 5: start on Thursday. Let's go chronologically through all eight. Let's

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Speaker 5: start with the first tip off between Clemson and Arizona,

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Speaker 5: will tip off seven oh nine in Los Angeles. Arizona

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Speaker 5: currently seven and a half point favorite. Totals ticked up

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Speaker 5: a bit to one fifty two. A couple of things

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Speaker 5: that I'll mention here. ACC twenty nine and eleven against

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Speaker 5: the spread of the past three tournaments eight no straight

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Speaker 5: up and seven to one against the spread. This year

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Speaker 5: in the main bracket, the ACC just continues to exceed

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Speaker 5: expectations with the teams that they get in the dance.

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Speaker 5: And I will say this Clemson team, and for people

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Speaker 5: that have been following all year our podcast portfolio, we

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Speaker 5: have three futures left Clemson, Final four, Tennessee, and Houston,

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Speaker 5: so we have some stuff to root for headed into

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Speaker 5: the Sweet sixteen, which is really all you can ask

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Speaker 5: for and ads to the excitement. But this Clemson team,

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Speaker 5: people tend to forget that. They out of conference earlier

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Speaker 5: this season they were extremely successful. I think they went

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Speaker 5: five to zero against tournament teams, beat UAB on a neutral,

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Speaker 5: Boise STATED one at Alabama, beat South Carolina at home,

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Speaker 5: and TCU on a neutral. They had a really strong

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Speaker 5: non conference schedule, stumbled some through the ACC schedule, but

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Speaker 5: it seemed to be peaking at the right time. I

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Speaker 5: think there's a bit of value in the Tigers here.

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Speaker 5: They can if they could take away a couple of

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Speaker 5: Arizona's primary avenue to offense. What are those Compson very

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Speaker 5: good in transition defense, They're very good in limiting second

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Speaker 5: chance opportunities, good on the defensive lass, top ten of

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Speaker 5: the nation in points for possessional out on second chance opportunities,

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Speaker 5: and they're great at defending at the rim. Where they're

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Speaker 5: at a disadvantage here is athletically with their guards on

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Speaker 5: the perimeter. But that was the case in the first

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Speaker 5: two matchups as well. So what has to happen here? Again,

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Speaker 5: They're gonna play a very compact defense. You might even

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Speaker 5: see some zone Arizona didn't fare too well in games

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Speaker 5: they saw zone in league play. I think they went

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Speaker 5: three and in games that they saw zone on at

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Speaker 5: least ten possessions in league clave. So cleb'son can slow

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Speaker 5: it down, pack it in, which will help defend Bala,

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Speaker 5: who does have an advantage in the post. And then

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Speaker 5: you gotta hope Arizona, you know, doesn't shoot the lights

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Speaker 5: out from three. Clemson did benefit from shooting luck in

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Speaker 5: the first two rounds. No one could take advantage, but

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Speaker 5: that's their best course of action. On the defense, Eve

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Speaker 5: End and Caleb ull could certainly shoot Arizona out of

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Speaker 5: the game. And the other end, Clemson works for the post.

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Speaker 5: One of the most post heavy offenses in the country.

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Speaker 5: Arizona thirty fourth percentile in post defense PERCENTERGY. They haven't

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Speaker 5: been great in that department, but Clempson is not really

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Speaker 5: a rim attacking offense, and that's okay against Arizona gives

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Speaker 5: up a ton of mid range jumpers. They will give

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Speaker 5: up open three looks. Clemson does have the shooters here,

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Speaker 5: so I think they could slow this game down. They

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Speaker 5: can work through all who can kind of move follow around,

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Speaker 5: take him out to the perimeter. He really struggles to

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Speaker 5: defend in space. And as long as Love and that

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Speaker 5: Arizona perimeter isn't going nuclear, I think Clempson has a

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Speaker 5: shott here Randall, what say.

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Speaker 2: You, Clemb's gonna win min Clem's is winning the game.

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Speaker 2: This Arizona team is based around Caleb Love, which is

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Speaker 2: a very dangerous thing. And what I mean by based

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Speaker 2: around two hundred and five more field goal attempts for

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Speaker 2: a forty one percent shooter from the field for Caleb Love.

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Speaker 2: They don't really attack a lot off the dribble. Pel

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Speaker 2: Larson really doesn't as well. The concern is hall foul

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Speaker 2: trouble because then Ballow can really go nuts inside. But

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Speaker 2: they have shot well. The offensive sets have been fantastic.

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Speaker 2: Gerard doing these flare screens away on the weak side

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Speaker 2: of the ball. Chase Hunter has been fantastic. He was

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Speaker 2: great in the last game as well. Is even improved

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Speaker 2: on defense. They don't turn the ball over stuck, they

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Speaker 2: make their free throws. They should limit Arizona in transitions.

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Speaker 2: I've liked Clemson. I thought the winner in New Mexico

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Speaker 2: Clemson was going to go far. And here we are,

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Speaker 2: and remember, like you said, on the other side of

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Speaker 2: this bracket Alabama, North Carolina, both teams Clemson beat on

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Speaker 2: the road. I think the only reason people aren't getting

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Speaker 2: behind Clemson is because of the name, because Brad Bromel

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Speaker 2: doesn't inspire a lot of momentum and confidence. But they

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Speaker 2: have a big inside. Their guards are playing well, they

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Speaker 2: can shoot the three, they can limit in transition, they

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Speaker 2: make their free throws, they don't turn it over enough.

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Speaker 2: Give me normal variants from three with Arizona, and give

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Speaker 2: me PJ. Hall not getting one of those silly anger

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Speaker 2: fouls like when he ran into the player the other

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Speaker 2: day against Baylor when he got frustrated and get a

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Speaker 2: post feed, and I think Clemson wins the game. So

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Speaker 2: I'll take Clemson at seven and a half. Yeah.

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Speaker 5: I mentioned their ability to limit second chance opportunities and

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Speaker 5: defend at the rim. Arizona's top ten in both so

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Speaker 5: that's critical. And I mentioned Arizona two and five in

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Speaker 5: league play when they saw zone in at least twenty possessions,

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Speaker 5: so you could see some Zonia their forty percent island

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Speaker 5: zone offense compared to the ninetieth first man they got

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Speaker 5: swept by Washington State. He us a lot of zone

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Speaker 5: worked through the post, you know, slowed the game up

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Speaker 5: at times, limited transition off. Like, there's a lot of

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Speaker 5: similarities and parallels to what Clempson can do here. You

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Speaker 5: did mention the Hall faltriable. He's been in vouchable a

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Speaker 5: lot this season and in the tournament Clemson has overcome it.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, him staying out of flat tiable because he

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Speaker 5: can move follow around. He's so good on the offensive end,

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Speaker 5: that will be key. Although they do have more depth

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Speaker 5: down low since Jack Clark returned from injury.

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Speaker 1: He's been big.

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Speaker 5: Gives him some added versatility on the defensive end. So yeah,

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Speaker 5: I think Clemson is definitely live here. Calbarys would you agree?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna sprinkle on the money line here, I'm

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Speaker 3: not I'm gonna bypass the points. I think, you know,

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Speaker 3: close to plus two to sixty. I think it's too generous.

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Speaker 3: And you guys did a great job belaying out why

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Speaker 3: when you look at Arizona's last three losses on this

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Speaker 3: season against Oregon, against usc against Wazoo, they made sixteen

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Speaker 3: threes in total in those three three losses. Really they're

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Speaker 3: just bones saw zones and all three exactly. And you

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Speaker 3: talk about the similarity with Washington State. I also look

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Speaker 3: at on the other end, what if Arizona you know,

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Speaker 3: gets up and down and makes this a higher tempo game. Well,

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Speaker 3: Clemson throughout the season, they beat Alabama and Tuscaloosa. They

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Speaker 3: beat North Carolina on their home floor by four, so

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Speaker 3: it's not as though if they get pulled out of

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Speaker 3: their preferred tempo that it's game over, which is some

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Speaker 3: of the cases with underdogs in this tournament. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I think this is all trending towards there being too

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Speaker 3: much value on Clemson.

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Speaker 6: And then additionally, the last piece of it. I mentioned

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Speaker 6: it on the show with Wadell, like PJ.

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Speaker 3: Hall hasn't even played as best yet He's got twenty

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Speaker 3: five points in this whole tournament. I think if he

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Speaker 3: can stay on the floor stay out of foul trouble,

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Speaker 3: I think this is going to be, you know, a

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Speaker 3: very close game in the second half and an Arizona

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Speaker 3: team that all of a sudden, you know from last

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Speaker 3: year losing to Princeton and people are kind of wondering

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Speaker 3: are they going to be snaked bit again? Ooh, they

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Speaker 3: beat Long Beach, Ooh, they beat Dayton, who really did

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Speaker 3: it to themselves. You have those foul shots that you know,

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Speaker 3: homes miss that could have been a one possession game

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Speaker 3: down the stretch. So I think they're getting too much

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Speaker 3: love in the market for what really were two easy games,

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Speaker 3: you know, through the tournament thus far. So yeah, I'm

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Speaker 3: with you guys on Clemson.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, Dayton couldn't hit a three, even though they're one

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Speaker 5: of the best three point shooting teams in the country.

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Speaker 5: There was a five minute stretch where they missed two

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Speaker 5: front ends, Arizona got a three off one of them

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Speaker 5: in transition, and Arizona missed a front end, got the

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Speaker 5: offensive rebound kicked out for three.

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Speaker 6: I mean, you're talking in the game.

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Speaker 5: Point swing in two minutes and Dayton couldn't make a three,

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Speaker 5: So I mean Arizona easily could have lost a game.

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Speaker 5: Don't forget this is an Arizona team that It's not

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Speaker 5: like they've been pristine away from the McHale Center all year.

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Speaker 5: They are per Hazlo metrics. I think that they're now

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Speaker 5: this some of this speaks to how good they are

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Speaker 5: at home, but they're three hundred and forty eighth and

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Speaker 5: away from home. Remember, seven of or eight losses have

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Speaker 5: come away from home and they lost to three non

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Speaker 5: tournament teams on the run in Oregon State, US and Stanford.

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Speaker 5: So I think CLEB says a shot here, set the

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Speaker 5: hope love doesn't go nuclear. That would Orehol get some

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Speaker 5: foul trouble. Both those things could obviously throw a wrench

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Speaker 5: into this. Officials will play a major part in a

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Speaker 5: lot of these games. Can Hall set a foul trouble?

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Speaker 5: Purdue Gonzaga, We'll talk about that game. All these physical

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Speaker 5: defenses Tennessee, Houston, Iowa State, how will they be allowed

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Speaker 5: to defend? Officials are going to play a major role

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Speaker 5: a lot of these games. Markets super efficient this time

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Speaker 5: that you're gonna come down the matchups, three point variants

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Speaker 5: as always in college basketball games, random endgame scenarios, and

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Speaker 5: luck and the whistle, which is why I love that

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Speaker 5: this time near market pretty efficient.

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Speaker 1: You have new venues too, to keep that in mind.

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Speaker 5: But I really like and prefer to bet live, and

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Speaker 5: we'll talk about some of those spots throughout the episode.

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Speaker 5: But let's move on to our second game, which will

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Speaker 5: tip about a half hour after the first, between San

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Speaker 5: Diego State and Yukon and Boston, Massachusetts. San Diego State

294
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Speaker 5: eleven point underdog here, total one thirty six. This will

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Speaker 5: mark only the third national title rematch in the NCAA

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Speaker 5: Tournament since expansion in nineteen eighty five. The first nineteenninety

297
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Speaker 5: two two You and I'll be in Duke, and the

298
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Speaker 5: second twenty seventeen Florida Ucla. Both those happened in the

299
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Speaker 5: final four. Yukon has been a wagon in the tournament,

300
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Speaker 5: not just this year, not just last year where they

301
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Speaker 5: are eight to zero against the spread, but in their

302
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Speaker 5: past thirty turning games, they're twenty four and six against

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Speaker 5: the spread, covering by over a touchdown per game.

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Speaker 1: Just stunning numbers.

305
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Speaker 5: They do have a travel advantage here, San Diego State

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Speaker 5: coming across the country and will have a partisan crowd

307
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Speaker 5: in Boston. I'm gonna go a little contrarian to make

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Speaker 5: a case San Diego State, but I think you guys

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Speaker 5: are gonna like Yukon, so I'll let you get the

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Speaker 5: first crack.

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Speaker 1: Calvaries.

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Speaker 6: Well, you mentioned the travel disparity. Little research.

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Speaker 3: It's the largest travel disparity, with Yukon only traveling eighty

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Speaker 3: five miles in the history of the Sweet sixteen. So

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Speaker 3: San Diego State has got to go over three thousand

316
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Speaker 3: miles to get to this game after going twenty six

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Speaker 3: hundred miles round trip to Spokane for their you know,

318
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Speaker 3: first and second round matchups. Yeah, I can't get like,

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Speaker 3: I can't talk myself into the Aztecs in any significant

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Speaker 3: way in this game and Yukon, even though I think

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Speaker 3: the numbers priced just about right, I think the first

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Speaker 3: half is the way to go about this. So I

323
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Speaker 3: already have a bet in on the Huskies minus six.

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Speaker 3: They failed to cover a first half half number in

325
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Speaker 3: their three games in the Big East Tournament, but they

326
00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:37,840
Speaker 3: flipped a switch. As you mentioned it.

327
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Speaker 6: Hurley has got them motivated.

328
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Speaker 3: He's got them basically feeling like they have a chip

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Speaker 3: on their shoulder. The committee's not doing any favors all

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Speaker 3: these you know things that he's saying. Whether we believe

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Speaker 3: it or not doesn't matter at all. It just depends

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Speaker 3: how this translates on the floor for the Huskies, and

333
00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:54,800
Speaker 3: they've played with their hair on fire, just blitzing stats

334
00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:56,040
Speaker 3: and blitzing Northwestern.

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Speaker 6: I think it's going to be similar in.

336
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Speaker 3: This spot, and that actually ties in with season long trend.

337
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:03,600
Speaker 3: They were second nationally first half scoring margin at plus

338
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Speaker 3: ten per game, and they were far and away the

339
00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:07,880
Speaker 3: best team in the first twenty minutes when playing away

340
00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:10,280
Speaker 3: from home this season in that same stet. So I'll

341
00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:12,199
Speaker 3: go ahead with the Huskies and laid the six. You

342
00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:14,360
Speaker 3: know this number in terms of just the first half

343
00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:15,680
Speaker 3: open at five five and a half.

344
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Speaker 6: I think there's a couple five and a half still

345
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Speaker 6: out there in the market. I will gobble those up.

346
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Speaker 5: See, I don't show a ton of value of any

347
00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,399
Speaker 5: of these games. We know who these teams are, but

348
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Speaker 5: I actually do show some value enough to bet on

349
00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:29,600
Speaker 5: San Diego State, although I will admit it's hard to

350
00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:32,840
Speaker 5: price Yukon because they've been so dominant. Yet they also

351
00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:34,960
Speaker 5: dealt with injuries during the season, like they weren't full

352
00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:39,320
Speaker 5: strength for stretches, which is definitely worth noting. But I

353
00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:41,159
Speaker 5: do think that they're at the very peak of their

354
00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,280
Speaker 5: market value and everyone's just talking about their just free

355
00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:44,840
Speaker 5: money or eight to zero against the spread in the

356
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Speaker 5: tournament over the past two seasons.

357
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Speaker 4: But keep in mine.

358
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Speaker 5: Last year they beat what three fives, a four, a thirteen,

359
00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:57,159
Speaker 5: and an eight. This year they beat you know, a

360
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Speaker 5: sixteen and a shorthanded eight seed. So it's not like

361
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:07,159
Speaker 5: they faced elite competition. One of those teams was San

362
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:10,560
Speaker 5: Diego State. I will mention in that national title last year,

363
00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:13,880
Speaker 5: I think san Diego State's a tad bit better. They're

364
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:17,359
Speaker 5: close than last year's team. The spread was seven and

365
00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:19,399
Speaker 5: a half. The total also was like one thirty one. Now,

366
00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:21,280
Speaker 5: national title total is going to be a little lower,

367
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:26,600
Speaker 5: but and yu Kon ended up covering that game. Now, granted,

368
00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,240
Speaker 5: San Diego State couldn't make a shot in that game,

369
00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,840
Speaker 5: but you have to keep in mind that Yukon plays

370
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,520
Speaker 5: Santa se chap six of twenty three from three in

371
00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:39,159
Speaker 5: that game twenty six percent. Yukon plays a lot slower

372
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,159
Speaker 5: this year. They last year there were two hundred and

373
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:44,159
Speaker 5: adjust the temple. This year they're three hundred and fifteen,

374
00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:47,400
Speaker 5: and you got a higher total and a spread that's

375
00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:51,119
Speaker 5: four points higher. So why do I like San Diego

376
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:51,399
Speaker 5: State here?

377
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:51,560
Speaker 4: Why?

378
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:53,560
Speaker 5: I think that there's just a tad bit of value

379
00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:58,000
Speaker 5: in the number. You also have Brian Dutch, a really

380
00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 5: good game plan head coach with time to prepare, and

381
00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,440
Speaker 5: he's had a lot of success in that department. Last

382
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:06,479
Speaker 5: ye the national title don't really benefit from that, and

383
00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:08,840
Speaker 5: you know you're going up against an offense. It has

384
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,240
Speaker 5: a lot of the new faces but some of the

385
00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:15,600
Speaker 5: same similarities. But I go back to Saint John. Saint

386
00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:19,160
Speaker 5: John's went on three against Yukon, but they hung around

387
00:20:19,200 --> 00:20:22,400
Speaker 5: in all three games. And I have San Diego State

388
00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 5: and Saint John's power raded almost similarly, and they kind

389
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:28,399
Speaker 5: of profile the same in.

390
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,720
Speaker 1: A lot of ways. So what do you and do

391
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,919
Speaker 1: things that you have to do well against Yukon. What

392
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:34,520
Speaker 1: do you have to do?

393
00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:36,199
Speaker 5: You have to operate efficially in the mid range, like

394
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:38,120
Speaker 5: that's what you have to do against their drop. Ukon

395
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,480
Speaker 5: allows mid range attempts to the top twenty clip Saint

396
00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:45,040
Speaker 5: John's ninth and mid range field goal percentage San Diego

397
00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:49,119
Speaker 5: State fifty fifth. You have to get second chance points

398
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:52,480
Speaker 5: Yukon one hundred and thirty eighth and second chance points

399
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 5: for possession allowed. You have to force turnovers with the

400
00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:03,120
Speaker 5: ball pressure. If there's one kind of work, it's they're

401
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 5: press numbers. They're thirty eighth percentile against the press per Synergy.

402
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:10,880
Speaker 5: You know Saint John's gonna press more than Sanego State,

403
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,600
Speaker 5: but they're both two of the most press heavy teams

404
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:15,640
Speaker 5: in the country. You have to defend at a high

405
00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 5: level at the rim because Yukon Renx third in the

406
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:22,280
Speaker 5: country a near proximity percentage. Both Saint John's and San

407
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:25,240
Speaker 5: Diego State do all of those things. Dian Diego State's

408
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 5: actually even better points for possessional steals, and they're both

409
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,000
Speaker 5: very good in second chance opportunities.

410
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:33,680
Speaker 1: They're both elite defending.

411
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:35,159
Speaker 5: At the rim, and they both have a lot of

412
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 5: guys who can kind of thrive in the mid range. Now,

413
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 5: it's not gonna be easy, especially in Boston against this

414
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:48,240
Speaker 5: awesome Yukon team, and you work through Ladie, He's gonna

415
00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 5: have to move, clinging around. He can't try to just

416
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:53,640
Speaker 5: attack him in the post. It's just not gonna work.

417
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:55,359
Speaker 5: It's gonna have to that some mid range jumper. He's

418
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 5: gonna maybe up at a couple threes. He's dead against Yale.

419
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:01,560
Speaker 5: He's three for three from deep in a tournament. But

420
00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 5: they're just gonna have to slow this game down to

421
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:05,640
Speaker 5: a crawl, which they can do. They also have really

422
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:09,359
Speaker 5: good positional length and switch ability don defense, which you

423
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,399
Speaker 5: need against Yukon's elite motion. So I think that they

424
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:16,440
Speaker 5: can just ugly this game up enough, cause enough turnovers

425
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 5: make enough mid range shots. If they're making threes, that's

426
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:23,680
Speaker 5: even a bonus. Now, if Yukon's making their threes, it's over.

427
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:27,399
Speaker 5: But San Diego State's gonna contest. They're very good in

428
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:32,000
Speaker 5: that department. Maybe that he can get clinging in foul trouble,

429
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,119
Speaker 5: that would be massive. But I just think this spreads

430
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 5: a little too high. There are some advantages here for

431
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:41,119
Speaker 5: San Diego State. Yukon is a wagon. I don't like

432
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:45,360
Speaker 5: thatting against them. Really only did it this year with

433
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,480
Speaker 5: Saint John's for a lot of the same reasons. I

434
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:52,200
Speaker 5: like san Diego State here, Randa, I'll let you break

435
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:52,440
Speaker 5: the time.

436
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 2: Sixty to fifty five in the National Championship game, with

437
00:22:56,400 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 2: five minutes left, san Diego States make a move and

438
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 2: then Jordan Hawkins comes off a staggered screen away from

439
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,120
Speaker 2: like the logo, and drills in. It was game over,

440
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 2: but they fought in that game shot. It is a

441
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 2: huge shot for the spread and for the title. San

442
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 2: Diego State has exactly what you need to keep this

443
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 2: game close. Ladie Inside the most improved player I've seen

444
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 2: this year. He's become a monster inside, and San Diego

445
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 2: State can guard the perimeter and guard the three well

446
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:30,880
Speaker 2: enough to keep this game close. They are allowing opponents

447
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,199
Speaker 2: thirty point eight percent from beyond the arc. Now, I

448
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:36,159
Speaker 2: know that they struggle to score, but this is a

449
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 2: matchup where the Aztecs are very familiar with Yukon. Yes,

450
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:43,200
Speaker 2: they're traveling. I don't care about that. They want revenge,

451
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:47,680
Speaker 2: They'll be motivated. Dutcher is a great coach. James Pulakidus

452
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:50,120
Speaker 2: under for Yale was the easiest bet of the round

453
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 2: of thirty two because there was no way that Dutcher

454
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 2: was gonna let that happen. He will come up with something.

455
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:57,879
Speaker 2: All we need here for San Diego State cover is

456
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 2: yukn not to go ballistic from three point range. Give me.

457
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 2: San Diego State was fifty percent from three point range

458
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 2: against Yale, just to do enough to hang around. I

459
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 2: am with you, stuck. I like San Diego Se. No

460
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 2: one is on them in this matchup, no one whatsoever.

461
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,399
Speaker 2: And when you have an eight point spread, I believe

462
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 2: the under. But the last thirty games is something like

463
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 2: twenty four, six and two in the Sweet sixteen, so

464
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,880
Speaker 2: lower scoring game both teams. Yukon hasn't played a fast

465
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:28,679
Speaker 2: paced familiarity. The unique ability to guard the perimeter and

466
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,880
Speaker 2: to hang inside with clinging. I'll take the Aztecs.

467
00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, just got to make enough mid range shots, cause

468
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,680
Speaker 5: a few turnovers, gets some easy buckets, maybe get cleaning

469
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 5: and foul trouble. It's not out of them the I mean,

470
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 5: everyone's acting like San Diego State can't win this game.

471
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 1: There's a path that they ugly this up enough that

472
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,359
Speaker 1: they can. Now.

473
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 5: Yukon is gonna win this game more times than not.

474
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 5: They're the best team in the country. But there are

475
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:57,959
Speaker 5: some potential paths here for the adstacks. So hopefully the

476
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 5: wagon of Yukon isn't too wagony for us. Randall all right,

477
00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 5: especially in the second half. Maybe you can cover the

478
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 5: first half for cal resent us.

479
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:09,640
Speaker 1: For the game.

480
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:14,560
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Speaker 5: All right, let's move on to the late slate on

507
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 5: Thursday night. We'll start with Alabama North Carolina nine nine tip.

508
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 5: North Carolina is a four and a half point favorite.

509
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 5: Total one set, three and a half. This game will

510
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:04,639
Speaker 5: be played in Los Angeles. Hubert Davis eight to zero

511
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 5: against the spread in the tournament, third coach in NCAA

512
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:13,880
Speaker 5: tournament history to do so, joining Gary Williams and Andy Enfield.

513
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 5: This is also the highest of the closer, the highest

514
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:21,119
Speaker 5: tournament total since nineteen ninety five. We have not seen

515
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:26,639
Speaker 5: a total over one seventy since nineteen ninety five until

516
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 5: this year, and it's happened in all three Alabama tournament games.

517
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 5: So I need to know about Alabama. They have a

518
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 5: great offense, they play fast as the UNC, and they

519
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 5: don't play much defense. I you know, no one is

520
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 5: giving Alabama a chance in this game, similar to Connecticut

521
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:54,679
Speaker 5: versus San Diego State. But I will say Alabama could

522
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:58,920
Speaker 5: beat anybody on any given night because of the three

523
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 5: point shooting. I think that's pretty much their only path here.

524
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:07,919
Speaker 5: They're like so UNC. The problem for Alabama in this

525
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 5: matchup is you have two teams that are, you know,

526
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,639
Speaker 5: very good in the offensive glass. The problem is Alabama

527
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:17,159
Speaker 5: is not good in the defensive class two hundred and

528
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 5: forty fifth UNC's six. They get to the line top

529
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:24,400
Speaker 5: hundred rates UNC sixty ninth in foul right on defense

530
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 5: Alabama three hundred and twenty seven. So all those extra points,

531
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:34,320
Speaker 5: offensive rebounds, free throws UNC is going to get Albama

532
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 5: also can't defend in the mid range. That's a nightmare

533
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 5: against R. J.

534
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 1: Davis.

535
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 5: They can't defend at the rim, that's a nightmare against

536
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 5: Armando Baikon. So and then you look UNC elite at

537
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:49,719
Speaker 5: defending at the rim and their elite in transition. I've

538
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 5: been so impressed with their transition defense all year and

539
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:54,960
Speaker 5: Alabama eighty fourth percent on transition frequency.

540
00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 1: So UNC can limit them and.

541
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 5: Transition, they can limited to the rim, and all Alabama

542
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 5: wants to do is, you know, either run and then

543
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 5: it's a rim in three offense, get to the rim

544
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 5: or shoot threes. They're gonna be limited and second chance

545
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 5: opportunities getting to the line at the rim. So what

546
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 5: are they gonna have to do? Here, they're gonna have

547
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 5: to hit threes. And the odd thing is UNC allows

548
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 5: you gotta beat him in the mid range. A three

549
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 5: hundred and forty six to mid range attempt th rate allow.

550
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 5: But Alabama is three hundred and sixty first in mid

551
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 5: range attempt to rate on offense. They never want to

552
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 5: shoot mid range, which is interesting, but they're just gonna

553
00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 5: have to hit a bunch of threes.

554
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 1: They could, and I think Rights is gonna play. They

555
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 1: need him. He's their best permanent defender.

556
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 5: He shoots forty five percent from three on almost one

557
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 5: hundred and fifty attempts, and UNC does give up a

558
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 5: lot of threes. They've been lucky in that department, give

559
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 5: up a pretty high percentage of unguarded threes. Well, I

560
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 5: do a good job in limiting catch and shoot opportunities.

561
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 5: But Alabama's eleven losses this year, they shot twenty eight

562
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 5: percent from three, and they're averaging about thirty attempts. In

563
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 5: their twenty three wins, they shot forty point eight percent.

564
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 5: So given the fact that UNC is probably gonna take

565
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 5: take away you know their efficiency at the rim, limit

566
00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 5: them in transition, and UNC's gonna be able to score it.

567
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 1: Will what out.

568
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 5: What does Alabama have to do? Number one, they have

569
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 5: to hope UNC does not have a great night shooting

570
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 5: from three, because then there's no way they can keep up.

571
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 5: But Alabama is probably because they're not gonna get anything

572
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 5: room they're gonna get in transition. They might shoot thirty

573
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 5: five to forty three's in this game. Let's say it's

574
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 5: thirty five. If they make only ten and they shoot

575
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 5: twenty eight point six percent, good night, see it not

576
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 5: a chance? If they hit fifteen, maybe they shoot forty

577
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 5: three percent, they have a chance to be in it.

578
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 5: Assuming un C isn't matching them for three, which very

579
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 5: well could happen.

580
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:53,520
Speaker 1: That's what they have to do. Now.

581
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 5: If they go like eighteen of thirty five, that's their bad.

582
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 5: We're asking a lot, and that could be anyone doing it.

583
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 5: But I think that's really the only path because it's

584
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 5: hard for me to see. It's hard for me to

585
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 5: envision Alabama getting many stops. I will be curious to

586
00:31:10,280 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 5: see how nato It's plays. Bret Nelson. Does he just

587
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 5: say fit we're going with our best offensive lineup. I

588
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 5: hope Nelson is making threes and who cares? We're not

589
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 5: going to stop them at the room anyway, or does

590
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 5: he go with his little better defenders down low.

591
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 1: That's something for me to watch. Randall throw to you first,

592
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 1: What are's seeing here in UNC all them?

593
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, UNC's vulnerable. And I don't care about that stat

594
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 2: with Hubert because of course he missed the tournament in

595
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 2: between that, but the rebounding advantage to the defensive advantage.

596
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 5: R J.

597
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 2: Davis is the best player on the floor. I can't

598
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 2: see it. They're vulnerable. This is not the game that

599
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 2: it's gonna happen and stuck.

600
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 3: You know.

601
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 2: I hate these teams that rely heavily on three, like Creton, etc.

602
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:56,680
Speaker 2: But it's really that simple. If Alabama comes out and

603
00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 2: is scorching the nets, they can absolutely win this game.

604
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 2: I'm not going to bet on it. I'll take North

605
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 2: Carolina lay the points. I get it, and I've been

606
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 2: waiting to fade North Carolina. I don't think this is

607
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 2: the matchup. I don't think they guard well enough. I

608
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:11,840
Speaker 2: think North Carolina can score, and I think there's a

609
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 2: huge discrepancy on the board's offensive and defensive glass. So

610
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 2: I'll take North Carolina. They're vulnerable. I just don't think

611
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:20,480
Speaker 2: Alabama is the team to get there because every time

612
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 2: Alabama's played away from home, I know this is neutral site.

613
00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 2: When they played away from home, they have not fared

614
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 2: well at Tennessee, at Kentucky, at Auburn, at Florida, average

615
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 2: loss nineteen and a half points per game.

616
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:35,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, there's definitely some correlation with their shooting and venue

617
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 5: as well. Shot much better at home, which has a

618
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 5: high correlation with those wins and losses. Calbary's what are

619
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:40,479
Speaker 5: you seeing here?

620
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 3: I mean you said one line that I'm going to

621
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 3: gravitate towards North Carolina's going to score. It will, So

622
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 3: let's go over eighty nine and a half for the

623
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:52,160
Speaker 3: team total on UNC. I think there's different narratives and

624
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:54,960
Speaker 3: different hypotheticals in which you kind of laid out where

625
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 3: Bama gets hot from three early and for that reason

626
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 3: they can hang around for forty minutes. But either way,

627
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:03,680
Speaker 3: they're going to play their brand of basketball. NATO's, you know,

628
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 3: is stubborn in that way. So I feel like I'm

629
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 3: going to take advantage of that, you know, data point.

630
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 3: He's not going to try to slow down the game

631
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 3: and muck it up and turn it into a half

632
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 3: court game.

633
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 6: So for that reason, just more opportunities for North Carolina.

634
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 3: I think they can get past eighty nine and a

635
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 3: half even if they don't go nuts from three. If

636
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 3: they do, I think they'll score in the triple digits

637
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 3: in this game. So I think this number is about

638
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 3: five points off. I'd probably played it all the way

639
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 3: up to ninety four and a half going over that.

640
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 3: So the fact that it's in the high eighties give

641
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 3: it to me.

642
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:32,480
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff.

643
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 5: Should be an entertaining up and down game. But let's

644
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 5: move on to the last game. On Thursday night, ten

645
00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:42,080
Speaker 5: or nine Eastern in Boston, Massachusetts, Illinois will take on

646
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 5: Iowa State in a two three the matchup. Illinoi is

647
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:50,720
Speaker 5: a one and a half point underdog here total sitting

648
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 5: around one forty six and a half. This is my

649
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 5: favorite matchup of the first round. Lead offense versus the

650
00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 5: lead defense, even on CAMPOM right now number one offensive

651
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 5: justin efficiency right now Illinois number one overall adjusted defense

652
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:09,799
Speaker 5: defensive efficiency is Iowa State? What gives lead offense versus

653
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 5: lead defense. I've heard a lot of great cases for

654
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:17,360
Speaker 5: both sides. I could see both playing out. I well,

655
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 5: I'll hold my my take on the stame and soul

656
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 5: we hear from you, Randall, go to you first. What

657
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,600
Speaker 5: are you seeing in Iowa State Illinois?

658
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:30,360
Speaker 2: It is very difficult for me in the sweet sixteen

659
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 2: to take a team that does not play defense at

660
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:37,360
Speaker 2: a level, at a championship level, and Illinois is fantastic.

661
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:41,920
Speaker 2: Morehead State had a path against Illinois. I think they

662
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 2: got I think Spradling got rattled because Shannon was just

663
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 2: going ballistic and had a great game. Guys, they were

664
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 2: down one and a half. I want to change the thing.

665
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 2: I think the move is to say we're gonna limit

666
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:54,239
Speaker 2: everyone else and let Shannon do what he does. He's

667
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 2: gonna do his booty ball. Him and domask are going

668
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 2: to back down. Iowa State will funnel that to the baseline,

669
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 2: They'll trap it, and they'll have to make them reverse.

670
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 2: Iowa State would have to have a terrible shooting game,

671
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,320
Speaker 2: and Illinois would have to be able to score against

672
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:10,400
Speaker 2: really one or two depending on how you want to look.

673
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 2: Out of Houston, best defensive teams in the country, I'm

674
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,879
Speaker 2: with tj Osselberger. I'm with their defense. I know why

675
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 2: the line is short here. Underwent's done a brilliant job.

676
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,279
Speaker 2: I think Iowa State will make enough shots. I know

677
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:24,360
Speaker 2: Shannon's gonna go crazy. You can you be betting his overs.

678
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:26,279
Speaker 2: I have no problem with that. But I think if

679
00:35:26,280 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 2: Asselberger smart, he's going to limit everyone else and let

680
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:32,760
Speaker 2: Shannon do what he does because that work for Morehead

681
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 2: State until they said we have to stop Shannon and

682
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:37,000
Speaker 2: then everyone else are crazy and Don Mesk almost had

683
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 2: I think he had a triple double. That is the

684
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 2: ke key. I think the defense with Iowa State. They

685
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 2: beat Houston twice, They've shown up in these games and

686
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 2: at some point Illinois is going to have to play defense.

687
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:52,360
Speaker 2: And they've even struggled against Maryland teams that are physical

688
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:55,760
Speaker 2: with them on defense. They struggle with throwing the neutral site.

689
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 2: It's not at home. I will take the Cyclones. I agree,

690
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:01,320
Speaker 2: it's close, great entertaining game. I'll take the Cyclones.

691
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:03,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is a coin game.

692
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 5: I'm leaning towards Illinois right now, just I trust their

693
00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:10,520
Speaker 5: offense a bit more. But look, they're a rim attacking offense.

694
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 5: You can't get anything at the rim against Iowa State.

695
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:19,320
Speaker 5: Number one in near proximity percentage. Excuse me, near proximity

696
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 5: a temporarate allowed. They're gonna have ge their jumpers. They

697
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:25,880
Speaker 5: can play five out, they can move the ball. You know,

698
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 5: Damask is an excellent passer. He can find open shooters.

699
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:33,880
Speaker 5: Shannon's gonna have opportunities in isolation. Illinois is an elite

700
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,919
Speaker 5: offense in the final four seconds of the shot clock.

701
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:41,920
Speaker 5: That's where Iowa State makes you work and Illinois. Look,

702
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 5: I always it's excellent across the board on defense, but

703
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:47,239
Speaker 5: you have to get offensive rebounds. You got to move

704
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:49,840
Speaker 5: the ball and hit threes. And I do think that

705
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:53,799
Speaker 5: while their transitions, he's also excellent. You gotta get some

706
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:57,000
Speaker 5: points in transition before the d gets set, which I

707
00:36:57,000 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 5: think Shannon can do. And don't forget about you know.

708
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,879
Speaker 5: The wild cardier is dain Danger. He's kind of changed

709
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 5: the trajectory of Illinois season. They're nine to one over

710
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:10,160
Speaker 5: their past ten games with him, and he's averaged fifteen

711
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:12,880
Speaker 5: minutes per game. He gives them more of a physical

712
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:15,320
Speaker 5: in those ten games. He's gives the more physical presence,

713
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:18,319
Speaker 5: better defense at the rim, better rebounding. He's their best

714
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:21,279
Speaker 5: defender per Evan Mea. The fourteen games prior he only

715
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 5: averaged six minutes. They went nine to five. So he's

716
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 5: he brings some like versatility, gives Underwood some flexibility and

717
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,760
Speaker 5: how he wants to play this. So I'll be interested

718
00:37:29,800 --> 00:37:31,960
Speaker 5: to see how many minutes he gets, because I don't

719
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 5: think he's If he has to come in for defense

720
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 5: in the post, then it's going to hurt their offense.

721
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 5: I think their biggest advantage of their offense is they

722
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 5: could play five out, move the ball, swing it passes,

723
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 5: get set up Shannon isolation. They have shooters all over

724
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:51,480
Speaker 5: to take advantage of. I with say it's aggressive defense.

725
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:57,000
Speaker 5: The other thing here is Illinois plays drop defense, force

726
00:37:57,040 --> 00:38:00,799
Speaker 5: you to operate in the mid range. Take away the three,

727
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:02,279
Speaker 5: and I would say it's been hot from three. They're

728
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 5: shooting forty six point eight percent from three of the

729
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 5: past four games in front of partisan crowds, which they

730
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 5: won't really have here in Boston, so maybe they cool.

731
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 5: But Illinois does a great job taking away to three.

732
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 5: They forced you to operate in the mid range. I

733
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 5: would state, while they've been off on three, not really

734
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 5: a three point online team, they're very comfortable in the midrange,

735
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:19,360
Speaker 5: which does wear any of bit. But I think the

736
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 5: key ultimately to this game is you know, I think

737
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:26,240
Speaker 5: it'll be super close to I'm I'm just gonna trust

738
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 5: the best player on the court and Sheddon I think

739
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 5: at the end of the day. But it's Ken Illinois

740
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 5: doesn't turn the ball statistically, they don't play with the

741
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:36,279
Speaker 5: point guard, they don't play with the true point guard,

742
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:39,399
Speaker 5: run a lot of their offense through damask and it's

743
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:43,839
Speaker 5: kind of like a positionless team. So if you look

744
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 5: and Iowa State is one of the best teams in

745
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 5: the country in forcing turnovers, so you would say, okay,

746
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:54,160
Speaker 5: Illinois can handle that. But this is a different level

747
00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 5: of pressure, right They don't see this in the Big Ten.

748
00:38:58,080 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 5: So Ken Illinois take care of the ball. That's that's

749
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:04,920
Speaker 5: the whole game to me, because if I if Iowa

750
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:06,920
Speaker 5: State is forcing turnovers, then they're gonna get in transition

751
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 5: Illinois Transition d is horrendous. They're gonna get too many

752
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 5: easy buckets in that sense, and that means Illinois is.

753
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:16,319
Speaker 1: Struggling to get into their offense. So that's huge for me.

754
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:18,320
Speaker 5: It's like, Ken Illinois numbers are good in the turnout

755
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:19,759
Speaker 5: of one where they don't really see pressure like this,

756
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 5: they don't really have a true point guard. That's huge

757
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 5: for me as is how much and when Danger plays

758
00:39:28,160 --> 00:39:30,880
Speaker 5: and his dynamic which changes Illinois and both ends of

759
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 5: the floor. Kyle recently throw it to you, what are

760
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 5: you're seeing when you break the tide?

761
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna be up there for these two games

762
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 3: in Boston. I'm really excited for this one. In particular,

763
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 3: as you mentioned, the top Ken Palm rated offense in

764
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:44,680
Speaker 3: the last ten games in the entire country is Illinois.

765
00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 3: You look at the differential and the terms of the

766
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 3: Sweet sixteen in the last ten games, the bottom.

767
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:51,280
Speaker 6: Team left is Iowa State.

768
00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:53,800
Speaker 3: So to me, it really does depend on how do

769
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 3: they handle the on ball pressure pressure. Can they keep

770
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 3: it to single digit turnovers as they have in their

771
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:01,400
Speaker 3: tournament wins thus far, the on the fighting line I side,

772
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 3: and if they do that and the Cyclones have to

773
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:07,439
Speaker 3: continually knock down shots, Illinois also do for a bit

774
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 3: of you know, teams cooling off from three Opponents have

775
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:11,319
Speaker 3: shot thirty eight percent from.

776
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:14,560
Speaker 6: Long range against them in the last two months. Iowa State.

777
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:18,439
Speaker 3: I still view them as a team that potentially could

778
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:20,359
Speaker 3: give up some second chance points. You look at their

779
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 3: defensive rebounding percentage numbers not great. Three hundred and seventeenth

780
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:26,560
Speaker 3: since February first. So yes, they defend the rim on

781
00:40:26,600 --> 00:40:29,439
Speaker 3: the initial attack very very well, but you can still

782
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 3: get some easy buckets off of those offensive boards.

783
00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:34,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's very aggression. They're out of position because they're

784
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 1: so aggressive and swarming that you. Yeah, exactly, and I

785
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:39,240
Speaker 1: think certain offensive redoubt.

786
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 3: And then finally, I mean, I want to respect this

787
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 3: Iowa State team. I know I've poked some fun at

788
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:46,879
Speaker 3: LIPSI over the course of the year, but the fact

789
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:50,239
Speaker 3: is they faced five top thirty offenses this season in

790
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:53,320
Speaker 3: Baylor BYU Houston, Texas Tech, and Texas all in the

791
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:55,239
Speaker 3: Big Twelve. They went seven and two straight up in

792
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:56,799
Speaker 3: six and three against the spread. So I think this

793
00:40:56,920 --> 00:41:01,280
Speaker 3: number is just about right. But I am on the Illinois.

794
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:03,680
Speaker 6: Money line here. I don't want to, you know.

795
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:06,640
Speaker 3: Sit there in the seed at halftime with Shannon having

796
00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 3: fifteen or twenty points already, I'm going to be kicking myself.

797
00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:11,720
Speaker 3: I think he's the kind of player that is capable

798
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:13,560
Speaker 3: of putting his team on his back. He's done it

799
00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:15,120
Speaker 3: not just during this run, but he's done it in

800
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:17,359
Speaker 3: general throughout this season and throughout the course of his career.

801
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:18,400
Speaker 6: He's been a little streakier.

802
00:41:18,520 --> 00:41:21,480
Speaker 3: I think he's finally playing consistent, high level basketball to

803
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:23,440
Speaker 3: the point where I want to hitch my wagon to him.

804
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:25,240
Speaker 6: So I'm going to take him both money line.

805
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:26,879
Speaker 3: And then minus three because he can get the Jews

806
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:28,640
Speaker 3: up to like plus one sixty.

807
00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 6: I think there's this good value in a bet like that.

808
00:41:31,719 --> 00:41:34,399
Speaker 5: All right, let's move on to Friday. We'll start with

809
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:38,919
Speaker 5: the only double digit seed remaining, NC State. I guess

810
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 5: the Cinderella left out of the ACC. They're catching six

811
00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:46,640
Speaker 5: and a half against Marquette, the two seed Skimall tips

812
00:41:46,680 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 5: seven O nine Eastern on CBS in Dallas, Texas. I

813
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:54,759
Speaker 5: you know, when I look at this game, I mean,

814
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:57,279
Speaker 5: Ncie said, I don't know how they're still standing. They've

815
00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:00,839
Speaker 5: tweaked their lineup and they've went on a run here.

816
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 5: They won the ACC tournament. But look they they beat

817
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 5: Virginia in overtime to keep their season alive. If they're

818
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:08,880
Speaker 5: a miracle bank, they beat Oakland and over time and

819
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:12,160
Speaker 5: teams can hit a three against them. They're over their

820
00:42:12,200 --> 00:42:14,719
Speaker 5: past six games, which they've won all six.

821
00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:17,040
Speaker 1: Credit to them. Opponents are shot just twenty.

822
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:21,800
Speaker 5: Eight percent from three prior to the that six game stretch,

823
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:25,960
Speaker 5: opponents were shooting thirty five percent from three. That was

824
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:30,440
Speaker 5: three hundredth nationally. They cannot let Marquette go bananas from

825
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:34,400
Speaker 5: three here, so that regression hits. It's lights out because

826
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:36,800
Speaker 5: I just do not see all NC State is getting

827
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:40,759
Speaker 5: stops the way I see this game playing out. Number one,

828
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:43,759
Speaker 5: they have a bad pick and roll defense, good luck

829
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 5: against you know, one of the best pick and roll

830
00:42:46,760 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 5: offenses in the country, spiritaded by Tyler Kollock.

831
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:50,439
Speaker 1: They're gonna move.

832
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:52,760
Speaker 5: Burns around, They're gonna take advantage of them in space,

833
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:56,360
Speaker 5: and they're gonna score well. They're also gonna score in transition.

834
00:42:56,640 --> 00:43:01,799
Speaker 5: NC State's bad in that department, and like Marquet's very

835
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:04,239
Speaker 5: vulnerable in the glass on both ends. It's very weak.

836
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:08,279
Speaker 5: But NC State isn't a really elite rebounding team on

837
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 5: either end. So I think off NC States misses Marqutt's

838
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:13,239
Speaker 5: gonna push it up the court. They're gonna get easy

839
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 5: buckets in transition. They're also gonna get easy buckets in

840
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:20,239
Speaker 5: the half court. Now where NZ State can say in

841
00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 5: this game, they have to hit their threes, So NC

842
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 5: State's gonna work through. It'll turn it over which is

843
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:29,239
Speaker 5: good top ten in the nation and turnover eight that's

844
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 5: huge against Marquette, which is top twenty forcing turnovers shock

845
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:35,319
Speaker 5: a smart pressure defense, so they don't turn it over.

846
00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:38,080
Speaker 5: They're gonna work through DJ Burns in the post. Marquet's

847
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:39,040
Speaker 5: posty is very bad.

848
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 1: What does that mean?

849
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 5: They're probably gonna help a lot trap double well for Burns,

850
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:47,480
Speaker 5: He's gonna get his buckets, but with so much help.

851
00:43:48,520 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 5: He's an elite passer, elite vision. He's gonna find the

852
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:54,400
Speaker 5: NC State shooters. Can they knock down threes against the

853
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:58,839
Speaker 5: defense that allows in attempts at top twenty? Right, there's

854
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:01,640
Speaker 5: a path there. Brand State keep up. They just have

855
00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 5: to hit their threes because I don't see them getting

856
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:07,400
Speaker 5: any stops. So lean the over here and this is

857
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 5: just gonna come down to me. Dancy State shooting Marquette.

858
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 5: I think ultimately prevails because they're just gonna be able

859
00:44:13,080 --> 00:44:18,880
Speaker 5: to get easier buckets more consistently. But if Burns is

860
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 5: finding shooters because they're not turning it over and the

861
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:25,319
Speaker 5: shooters are hitting NC State can hang around here, Rand

862
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:26,319
Speaker 5: I'll throw to you what he's seen.

863
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 1: Biggest edge.

864
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:30,080
Speaker 2: We have an FTN seven point two percent edge, sixty

865
00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:34,560
Speaker 2: percent probability of winning on Marquette minus six points. Everyone

866
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:36,560
Speaker 2: is riding with NC State right now. I expect the

867
00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 2: tickets to come in heavy on them. I agree with you.

868
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 2: It was the rebounding. That's how you're gonna get Marquette.

869
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:45,440
Speaker 2: NC State's not gonna do that. Really the issue with Marquette.

870
00:44:45,480 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 2: I think they would have blown out Colorado if not

871
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 2: for Cam Jones getting in foul trouble. He went out

872
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:51,799
Speaker 2: with his fourth foul only second time in the last

873
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:52,359
Speaker 2: month and a half.

874
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:52,920
Speaker 1: That's happened.

875
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:56,719
Speaker 2: Their offense stalled, they did struggle, but their defense has

876
00:44:56,760 --> 00:44:59,200
Speaker 2: improved because they had to play without Kolk the Big

877
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 2: East Tournament and it really showed me something. Against Yukon

878
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:04,640
Speaker 2: they will be able to guard the perimeter. I think

879
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:07,160
Speaker 2: against NC State, remember, NC State for most of this

880
00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 2: year could not make an outside shot consistently. They struggled

881
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 2: against early in the season at games and home against Duke,

882
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:16,400
Speaker 2: but then they got scalding hot. Give me some regression

883
00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:19,480
Speaker 2: with that as well. Burns has been amazing, absolutely fantastic.

884
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:22,799
Speaker 2: Iguidoro though athletic guys should be able to limit him

885
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:25,359
Speaker 2: a little bit, and even if they double Irashaka in

886
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 2: this spot as well, more than Kevin Keats. So I'm

887
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 2: laying the points even though it's a lot and Libraty's

888
00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:33,480
Speaker 2: grabbing it. I think Marque here should win comfortably and

889
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:34,600
Speaker 2: move on to the elite.

890
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:39,480
Speaker 3: Ekzim, I try to talk myself in NC State here.

891
00:45:39,520 --> 00:45:41,240
Speaker 3: I was looking back through some of the data eleven

892
00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:43,759
Speaker 3: seeds versus two seeds the NCAA tournament. This is the

893
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:46,719
Speaker 3: twentieth such meeting. They're three and sixteens straight up in

894
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 3: those spots. But it's worth noting the elevens have been

895
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:51,479
Speaker 3: feisty lately since twenty seventeen. They're two and three straight

896
00:45:51,560 --> 00:45:53,480
Speaker 3: up with two outright wins and then three and two

897
00:45:53,520 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 3: against the spread when facing those two seeds. And NC

898
00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 3: State has the offense certainly, you know since March first,

899
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 3: their top twenty nationally, but as Stuck and you know,

900
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 3: Mike have been pointing out here, the defense still has

901
00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:08,200
Speaker 3: major holes. And Kolak makes this offense sing in just

902
00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:11,360
Speaker 3: a totally different way. He looked rejuvenated against Colorado twenty

903
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 3: one to eleven, and.

904
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:14,160
Speaker 6: Five turnovers remain a concern with him.

905
00:46:14,200 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 3: He already has nine during this run in March madness,

906
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:19,719
Speaker 3: but NC State isn't particularly disruptive in that regard. They're

907
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:21,680
Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty six and turnover rate in the country,

908
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:23,759
Speaker 3: and I think that's the element, that's the one part

909
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:24,360
Speaker 3: where maybe.

910
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:24,839
Speaker 6: They could swing it.

911
00:46:25,080 --> 00:46:27,200
Speaker 3: A couple extra possessions, could lead to a couple extra

912
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:29,520
Speaker 3: three point looks, and maybe they hang around late. But

913
00:46:29,920 --> 00:46:32,200
Speaker 3: I don't see it in terms of this, you know,

914
00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 3: this head to head. So I'm just gonna go ahead

915
00:46:34,320 --> 00:46:37,280
Speaker 3: with Marquette, lay the points and probably more so than anything,

916
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:39,719
Speaker 3: use it as a sweetener onto some parlays. Take the

917
00:46:39,840 --> 00:46:40,879
Speaker 3: Golden Eagle money line.

918
00:46:42,200 --> 00:46:45,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, and look, Kullak is so important, obviously one of

919
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:48,320
Speaker 5: the most important players to his team in the country.

920
00:46:48,320 --> 00:46:54,440
Speaker 5: And keep in mind he missed six games, and you

921
00:46:54,480 --> 00:46:58,239
Speaker 5: know they barely beat Xavier, they beat Villanovn overtime, and

922
00:46:58,239 --> 00:47:03,000
Speaker 5: then they lost three other games, uh by seven, fourteen,

923
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:06,480
Speaker 5: and sixteen. So I they could you are missed one

924
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:08,200
Speaker 5: of those games, because you could argue that, you know,

925
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:11,799
Speaker 5: from a metrics an analytics standpoint, that Marquette maybe he's

926
00:47:11,800 --> 00:47:16,520
Speaker 5: a little undervalued in the market because they kind of

927
00:47:16,600 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 5: underperformed as you would expect without Colic. But yeah, this

928
00:47:20,320 --> 00:47:24,040
Speaker 5: game should be played at a faster pace, so I

929
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:27,359
Speaker 5: think that there should be points, and these teams start

930
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:31,400
Speaker 5: out slow. I'll be looking to bet a live over.

931
00:47:32,280 --> 00:47:34,840
Speaker 5: You know, sometimes you get some like jitters and you know,

932
00:47:34,840 --> 00:47:36,799
Speaker 5: maybe the rim is tired. I like to see how

933
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:39,080
Speaker 5: it plays out early and then if you get like

934
00:47:39,080 --> 00:47:43,000
Speaker 5: on a some bad shooting early, and I think what

935
00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:45,959
Speaker 5: the matchups both offenses have, there should be some points

936
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:48,399
Speaker 5: in this one. So I'll be looking for a live over.

937
00:47:48,520 --> 00:47:52,839
Speaker 5: But unless NC State goes bananas from three, it's hard

938
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 5: for me to see them winning this game.

939
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:55,160
Speaker 1: So I just don't think that they'll get stops.

940
00:47:55,200 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 5: They can market could just put Burns in conflict all

941
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:01,320
Speaker 5: day long, and you need they can take him out.

942
00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:03,920
Speaker 5: You know, he'll get his rest, but especially Marquet's pushing

943
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:09,480
Speaker 5: it too. They need Burns on the offensive end. So yeah,

944
00:48:09,560 --> 00:48:12,480
Speaker 5: I like Marquette as well. All right, let's move on

945
00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:18,359
Speaker 5: to the second game on Friday, so tip half hour later,

946
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:24,400
Speaker 5: seven thirty nine Eastern on TBS between Gonzaga and Purdue.

947
00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:27,480
Speaker 5: Purdue is a five and a half point favorite here

948
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:28,839
Speaker 5: total one to fifty four and a half. This game

949
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:32,360
Speaker 5: will he played in Detroit, Michigan, a rematch from a

950
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:36,880
Speaker 5: game played earlier this season. In that game, Gonzaga actually

951
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:39,440
Speaker 5: let by five at the half ended up losing by

952
00:48:39,480 --> 00:48:42,359
Speaker 5: ten because they shot six of thirty two from three

953
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:46,040
Speaker 5: nineteen percent, including fourteen from three in the second half.

954
00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:47,359
Speaker 1: But Purdue.

955
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:50,279
Speaker 5: It was four of seventeen, so it's not like they

956
00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 5: shot the lights out either. And if you're looking for

957
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:56,399
Speaker 5: a regression under, this would be it. I mean, since

958
00:48:56,440 --> 00:49:03,399
Speaker 5: February first, Gonzaga shot forty one from three, that's top

959
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 5: five in the nation. He knows higher Purdue at forty

960
00:49:06,040 --> 00:49:10,400
Speaker 5: two percent. So between two post centric offenses, these are

961
00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 5: two of the top four most post heavy offenses in

962
00:49:14,200 --> 00:49:18,040
Speaker 5: the country. Purdue obviously works through Zach Edy and Zaga

963
00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:21,760
Speaker 5: works through gram Eke, but both defenses are also elite

964
00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 5: at defending at the rim. So this could come down

965
00:49:25,160 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 5: to who's making more jumpers, both in the mid range

966
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:32,400
Speaker 5: and from three. And if that's the case, both of

967
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:35,399
Speaker 5: these teams maybe a little overdue to cool off, which

968
00:49:35,440 --> 00:49:39,239
Speaker 5: would be your case for the under. Now, I will

969
00:49:39,239 --> 00:49:41,600
Speaker 5: say there's a path to offense here for Gonzaga, which

970
00:49:41,600 --> 00:49:44,000
Speaker 5: has been much better of late. Got to give credit

971
00:49:44,000 --> 00:49:46,600
Speaker 5: to Ben greg He's been a revelation. They can kind

972
00:49:46,600 --> 00:49:49,840
Speaker 5: of move Zach Edy around, produce pick and roll defense.

973
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:52,520
Speaker 5: It's a bit weak, grades out slightly blow national average

974
00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:56,479
Speaker 5: perc entergy Mark. Few will have a good offensive game plan.

975
00:49:57,160 --> 00:50:00,759
Speaker 5: Look no further than his record is over record in

976
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:04,320
Speaker 5: his tournament career after the first round twenty fourteen of

977
00:50:04,360 --> 00:50:07,640
Speaker 5: the over. So in the half court, Purdue is not gonna,

978
00:50:07,680 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 5: you know, turn you over, pick and roll, move ed around,

979
00:50:12,920 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 5: hit in your mid range jumpers, which they certainly can do,

980
00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:19,640
Speaker 5: and stay hot from three. Zaga can stay in this game.

981
00:50:20,040 --> 00:50:20,360
Speaker 1: Now.

982
00:50:20,960 --> 00:50:26,160
Speaker 5: The caveat is because Pue Perdue with their defense, are

983
00:50:26,200 --> 00:50:27,560
Speaker 5: generally gonna force you to work in the mid range

984
00:50:27,600 --> 00:50:31,200
Speaker 5: three hundred fifty eight in mid range of temper rate allowed. Zaga,

985
00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:33,239
Speaker 5: by the way, forty first in mid range of temper

986
00:50:33,280 --> 00:50:37,520
Speaker 5: eight seventh in mid range percentage made. So they're very good.

987
00:50:37,520 --> 00:50:40,520
Speaker 5: There can say the same for Purdue, like this is

988
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:46,439
Speaker 5: gonna be a jump shooting battle unless the whistle comes

989
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:50,000
Speaker 5: into play. Ken gonzagas Stata thought hub that is such

990
00:50:50,080 --> 00:50:52,680
Speaker 5: a big factor in games. They have no depth bottom

991
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:54,480
Speaker 5: five in benchmentutes. Now they do a good job of

992
00:50:54,560 --> 00:50:58,319
Speaker 5: not fouling. Both these teams are top twenty infouerate on

993
00:50:58,360 --> 00:51:01,800
Speaker 5: the defensive end, but Purdue top ten and drawing fouls

994
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:06,600
Speaker 5: Kenzaga no, So Gonzaga is much more likely to get

995
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:09,879
Speaker 5: infoult trouble, and they are.

996
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:12,480
Speaker 1: It would be much more.

997
00:51:12,320 --> 00:51:13,960
Speaker 5: Of a detriment to them if they got in pout

998
00:51:13,960 --> 00:51:16,040
Speaker 5: trouble than Purdue. Obviously, if Edie gets in patrobl but

999
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:18,480
Speaker 5: he does a good job of defending without fouling. And

1000
00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:20,359
Speaker 5: even though Kenzaga does a good job, depending on its

1001
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:23,440
Speaker 5: Zach Edie, it's gonna he draws fouls no matter what,

1002
00:51:23,719 --> 00:51:25,719
Speaker 5: and it's gonna depend on how the rests are calling this.

1003
00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:29,360
Speaker 5: I will say if Edie, if Grammy Ka gets in

1004
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:33,799
Speaker 5: foul trouble, I'm gonna look to better live over. So

1005
00:51:33,840 --> 00:51:36,400
Speaker 5: I think then Gonzaga can go, you know, with a

1006
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:40,800
Speaker 5: little more mobile five, they can move Edie around a

1007
00:51:40,840 --> 00:51:44,759
Speaker 5: little easier, and I think that they can have some

1008
00:51:44,760 --> 00:51:49,360
Speaker 5: success offensively still, maybe even more so. And then on

1009
00:51:49,400 --> 00:51:52,360
Speaker 5: the other end, you don't have Eke to battle d

1010
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:55,280
Speaker 5: on the defensive end, he's good as a good post defender,

1011
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:58,239
Speaker 5: should be an Edie dunk Fest on the other end.

1012
00:51:58,239 --> 00:52:00,439
Speaker 5: So I looked the live Betton over there. So much

1013
00:52:00,560 --> 00:52:02,480
Speaker 5: is going to come down with the whistle. So much

1014
00:52:02,480 --> 00:52:04,840
Speaker 5: of this is going to come down to which team

1015
00:52:05,360 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 5: can stay hot from the perimeter and who's hitting their

1016
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:11,040
Speaker 5: mid range jumpers, which there should be plenty of in

1017
00:52:11,040 --> 00:52:14,040
Speaker 5: this game. Red Al throw to you first. What he's saying,

1018
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:14,760
Speaker 5: Purdue Gonzagon.

1019
00:52:15,160 --> 00:52:17,879
Speaker 2: You know, I think Matt Painter gets too much criticism here.

1020
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:20,840
Speaker 2: He's had an incredible, sustained success and if not for

1021
00:52:20,920 --> 00:52:23,680
Speaker 2: Diakite's incredible play there, he would have been in a

1022
00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:26,759
Speaker 2: final four and couldn't won a national title. But I

1023
00:52:26,760 --> 00:52:29,480
Speaker 2: think he's built this team as he had to build it.

1024
00:52:29,560 --> 00:52:31,200
Speaker 2: But that's why all saw they're vulnerable.

1025
00:52:31,280 --> 00:52:31,520
Speaker 1: Guys.

1026
00:52:31,520 --> 00:52:33,399
Speaker 2: You have the two time National Player of the Year

1027
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:36,440
Speaker 2: seven foot four inside, you're going to build him with shooters.

1028
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:36,560
Speaker 3: Now.

1029
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:39,040
Speaker 2: We tried to bring in Lance Jones from Southern Illinois

1030
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:41,239
Speaker 2: to have a player who can attack on the wing.

1031
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:43,480
Speaker 2: And Lance Jones can be okay up and down, But

1032
00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:47,200
Speaker 2: three straight games nine points or fewer, so I think

1033
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:50,839
Speaker 2: Gonzaga's very live in this gamek Andton Watson inside had

1034
00:52:50,840 --> 00:52:53,320
Speaker 2: some success. They both had four fouls in the first matchup.

1035
00:52:54,160 --> 00:52:57,279
Speaker 2: I do think Gonzaga can limit Perdue from beyond the

1036
00:52:57,360 --> 00:53:00,719
Speaker 2: arc easier than Purdue can limit Gonzaga. Bet Gonzag gonna

1037
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:02,880
Speaker 2: make more shots from three. If they don't, they're done.

1038
00:53:03,360 --> 00:53:06,239
Speaker 2: But I do like nem Hart Ben Greg's been fantastic.

1039
00:53:06,239 --> 00:53:08,640
Speaker 2: Even Nolan Hickman, who I always besh, has done a

1040
00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:11,120
Speaker 2: very nice job and has been hot from three point range.

1041
00:53:11,239 --> 00:53:13,160
Speaker 2: I think they keep this game close. I am grabbing

1042
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:15,560
Speaker 2: the points no problem, And I think Purdue's on upset

1043
00:53:15,560 --> 00:53:18,319
Speaker 2: alart not because Matt Painter can't win in March, not

1044
00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:21,400
Speaker 2: because Purdue is underachieving, simply because that this is a

1045
00:53:21,520 --> 00:53:25,399
Speaker 2: team that is built on dy dominating inside and hitting

1046
00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:28,879
Speaker 2: an excessive amount of threes. And Edie is gonna get his.

1047
00:53:29,160 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 2: But can e K and Anton Watson control the boards

1048
00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:33,480
Speaker 2: a little bit? Can they limit in better than Uta

1049
00:53:33,520 --> 00:53:35,799
Speaker 2: State did, who got four fouls on two of their

1050
00:53:35,840 --> 00:53:38,080
Speaker 2: players within the first five minutes that game was over.

1051
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:41,040
Speaker 2: That happens, Gonzag is in trouble. If it doesn't, I

1052
00:53:41,120 --> 00:53:43,440
Speaker 2: think mark few hangs around this team could steal it

1053
00:53:43,480 --> 00:53:45,680
Speaker 2: as well. So I will take the Zags plus five

1054
00:53:45,719 --> 00:53:48,680
Speaker 2: and a half. They have the familiarity, they have the coaching.

1055
00:53:48,800 --> 00:53:51,080
Speaker 2: They're shooting well from three point range and E. K.

1056
00:53:51,200 --> 00:53:54,000
Speaker 2: Watson inside I think can at least do something to

1057
00:53:54,080 --> 00:53:56,839
Speaker 2: maybe slow down Zach Edy to a little bit, which

1058
00:53:56,880 --> 00:53:57,680
Speaker 2: they couldn't do before.

1059
00:53:59,120 --> 00:54:01,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, I will say, yeah, Nzago's got at that shots.

1060
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:03,800
Speaker 5: But they're very good in the mid range, which you

1061
00:54:03,800 --> 00:54:06,520
Speaker 5: can get against Purdue because produce very good at limiting

1062
00:54:06,640 --> 00:54:12,080
Speaker 5: transition offenses, which you know Gonzaga is awesome in transition.

1063
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:14,279
Speaker 5: Might not get watch of that here and produce great

1064
00:54:14,280 --> 00:54:16,640
Speaker 5: on the defensive glass and they don't foul, so I

1065
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:18,160
Speaker 5: can zagat the night in their shots. I'm not gonna

1066
00:54:18,160 --> 00:54:20,400
Speaker 5: give anyecond chance opportunities, not really going to get to

1067
00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:24,160
Speaker 5: the line. But all they've been doing of late is

1068
00:54:24,239 --> 00:54:26,319
Speaker 5: hitting those shots. Alice, what do you saying?

1069
00:54:27,320 --> 00:54:29,200
Speaker 3: I just wanted to shout out Mark few because I think,

1070
00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:31,280
Speaker 3: you know, for the last let's call it ten years,

1071
00:54:31,320 --> 00:54:33,480
Speaker 3: the fact that they haven't won a national title, the

1072
00:54:33,560 --> 00:54:35,839
Speaker 3: narrative and the public perception a little bit is that

1073
00:54:36,360 --> 00:54:38,400
Speaker 3: these have the where they're ranked, and you know that

1074
00:54:38,520 --> 00:54:40,239
Speaker 3: number next to their name in the AP poll that

1075
00:54:40,239 --> 00:54:41,239
Speaker 3: they've underperformed.

1076
00:54:41,239 --> 00:54:43,560
Speaker 6: This was clearly I think one of his best coaching jobs.

1077
00:54:43,560 --> 00:54:44,440
Speaker 6: Of his entire career.

1078
00:54:44,560 --> 00:54:46,399
Speaker 3: They went from a team that was viewed as being

1079
00:54:46,400 --> 00:54:48,759
Speaker 3: on the bubble about two months ago to being a

1080
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:50,960
Speaker 3: five seed, to making it to the second weekend, to

1081
00:54:51,040 --> 00:54:53,240
Speaker 3: being viewed as a live dog in the Sweet sixteen

1082
00:54:53,280 --> 00:54:55,520
Speaker 3: against a team that spent you know, a portion of

1083
00:54:55,520 --> 00:54:57,120
Speaker 3: the season as the number one team in the country.

1084
00:54:57,160 --> 00:55:00,560
Speaker 6: So kudos to him. I still have the same concerns

1085
00:55:00,600 --> 00:55:01,120
Speaker 6: I did.

1086
00:55:01,280 --> 00:55:03,600
Speaker 3: Two months ago about this, you know, the Zags team,

1087
00:55:03,640 --> 00:55:06,279
Speaker 3: which is I don't trust in Olan Hickman, mainly because

1088
00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:08,160
Speaker 3: they played against ranked teams six times.

1089
00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:08,720
Speaker 6: On the season.

1090
00:55:08,920 --> 00:55:11,600
Speaker 3: He was four points lower than his season average average

1091
00:55:11,640 --> 00:55:14,239
Speaker 3: in just over ten points per game. He shot forty

1092
00:55:14,280 --> 00:55:16,840
Speaker 3: percent from the field and only twenty nine percent from three.

1093
00:55:16,920 --> 00:55:18,719
Speaker 3: And I think that is where this game comes down to.

1094
00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:21,440
Speaker 3: I think both interior big men are going to put

1095
00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:24,439
Speaker 3: up numbers pretty close to their season average, and it's

1096
00:55:24,480 --> 00:55:26,560
Speaker 3: which team can share the basketball and knock down their

1097
00:55:26,560 --> 00:55:30,560
Speaker 3: shots produced second nationally and assistant made basket ratio. They

1098
00:55:30,600 --> 00:55:32,759
Speaker 3: went from last year being a huge liability in their

1099
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:35,240
Speaker 3: backcourt to now at being a strength and I'm hoping

1100
00:55:35,600 --> 00:55:37,360
Speaker 3: and this is really where it's a little bit of

1101
00:55:37,360 --> 00:55:40,120
Speaker 3: magical thinking that an extra four to five days of

1102
00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:41,840
Speaker 3: rest for Braden Smith is going to make the difference

1103
00:55:41,880 --> 00:55:44,360
Speaker 3: because he still looks like himself as a facilitator in

1104
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 3: the first two rounds, but not as a scorer, and

1105
00:55:46,640 --> 00:55:48,440
Speaker 3: that's coming off the injury in the big ten turnment.

1106
00:55:48,480 --> 00:55:50,880
Speaker 3: I'm hoping that he can come back score ten to

1107
00:55:50,880 --> 00:55:53,720
Speaker 3: fifteen points, knock down some threes while also running the offense,

1108
00:55:53,760 --> 00:55:55,759
Speaker 3: because if he does that, I think Purdue is going

1109
00:55:55,800 --> 00:55:57,080
Speaker 3: to be able to win this game. Although I think

1110
00:55:57,120 --> 00:55:59,200
Speaker 3: the number is just about right, so I'm going to

1111
00:55:59,280 --> 00:56:02,160
Speaker 3: pass on it from a spread perspective. The last stat

1112
00:56:02,200 --> 00:56:04,680
Speaker 3: I like to throw out of teams remaining in the field.

1113
00:56:04,800 --> 00:56:07,520
Speaker 3: You know, we got the sixteen squads here the fewest

1114
00:56:07,600 --> 00:56:11,040
Speaker 3: kill shots surrendered perdue, so I think it's difficult to

1115
00:56:11,080 --> 00:56:11,759
Speaker 3: run them off the floor.

1116
00:56:11,800 --> 00:56:12,959
Speaker 6: It's difficult to build on your.

1117
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:15,640
Speaker 3: Own momentum and you know, to put together those long

1118
00:56:15,640 --> 00:56:17,719
Speaker 3: scoring runs. So for that reason, I think they're one

1119
00:56:17,760 --> 00:56:19,960
Speaker 3: of the most consistent teams remaining. So I'll go with

1120
00:56:20,000 --> 00:56:20,919
Speaker 3: Painter squad here.

1121
00:56:21,320 --> 00:56:23,520
Speaker 5: All right, let's move on to the late slate on

1122
00:56:23,719 --> 00:56:27,840
Speaker 5: Friday night, and we will start with Duke taking on Houston.

1123
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:30,319
Speaker 5: By the way, before we get to this game. Just

1124
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:34,320
Speaker 5: in the episode description, we'll have our link to our discord.

1125
00:56:34,360 --> 00:56:36,440
Speaker 5: I'll be hanging out there for the first half of

1126
00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:39,200
Speaker 5: the games on Thursday night. Got a really good community there.

1127
00:56:40,520 --> 00:56:42,959
Speaker 5: Nick Giffid and Sehn Kern are always given out winners

1128
00:56:42,960 --> 00:56:48,799
Speaker 5: in props. So talk shop, talk some ball, sweat the game.

1129
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:52,479
Speaker 5: So make sure if you have the chance to sign

1130
00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:55,279
Speaker 5: up and join us there. But let's move on to

1131
00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:58,719
Speaker 5: Duke Houston in the one verse four matchup. Houston is

1132
00:56:58,760 --> 00:57:01,000
Speaker 5: a four and a half point favorite here too, one

1133
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:01,960
Speaker 5: thirty four.

1134
00:57:02,239 --> 00:57:04,319
Speaker 1: It's going to be played in Dallas, Texas.

1135
00:57:04,600 --> 00:57:09,680
Speaker 5: He's still a little bit of a home state advantage.

1136
00:57:10,440 --> 00:57:14,439
Speaker 5: When I look at this game, this game Tip nine

1137
00:57:14,440 --> 00:57:15,480
Speaker 5: thirty nine on CBS.

1138
00:57:15,480 --> 00:57:17,840
Speaker 1: If I didn't say that, when.

1139
00:57:17,680 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 5: I look at this game, it really comes down to me,

1140
00:57:19,640 --> 00:57:24,080
Speaker 5: can Duke handle Houston's physicality. I've said all year, I

1141
00:57:24,160 --> 00:57:27,880
Speaker 5: think Duke is soft, and that's really what cost them

1142
00:57:27,880 --> 00:57:29,680
Speaker 5: against North Carolina. I think that was like the difference

1143
00:57:29,680 --> 00:57:32,080
Speaker 5: watching these games with Carolina very physical team are the

1144
00:57:32,120 --> 00:57:34,640
Speaker 5: oldest teams in the country, and at times it looked

1145
00:57:34,640 --> 00:57:37,800
Speaker 5: like men versus boys, and that's what happened.

1146
00:57:37,560 --> 00:57:38,400
Speaker 1: To Duke last year.

1147
00:57:38,760 --> 00:57:42,640
Speaker 5: Keep in mind getting kind of similar vibes. Last year

1148
00:57:42,720 --> 00:57:47,400
Speaker 5: Everyone's favorite Cinderella Oral Roberts. Everyone was picking them to

1149
00:57:47,640 --> 00:57:53,120
Speaker 5: upset Duke. Duke destroyed them this year. And I guess

1150
00:57:53,120 --> 00:57:56,920
Speaker 5: what Duke next game right in Due Tennessee, who just

1151
00:57:56,960 --> 00:57:59,720
Speaker 5: out physicaled them from the from the jump, Duke barely

1152
00:57:59,720 --> 00:58:04,800
Speaker 5: got to fifty points this year Everyone's favorite Cinderella underdog,

1153
00:58:04,880 --> 00:58:11,919
Speaker 5: Darling James Madison. Duke demolishes the Dukes. Now everyone's back

1154
00:58:11,960 --> 00:58:14,560
Speaker 5: on the Duke bandwagon. But now they're going up against

1155
00:58:15,640 --> 00:58:20,720
Speaker 5: the pinnacle of physical teams in Houston. Can Duke handle

1156
00:58:21,600 --> 00:58:23,840
Speaker 5: the physicality of Houston's gonna blow up their pick and

1157
00:58:23,880 --> 00:58:26,200
Speaker 5: a roll game if they can, and they're not turning

1158
00:58:26,200 --> 00:58:28,600
Speaker 5: the ball over. You know, you have to do a

1159
00:58:28,600 --> 00:58:30,320
Speaker 5: couple of things against You can't turn the ball over,

1160
00:58:30,360 --> 00:58:33,080
Speaker 5: You have to handle the physicality. You got to get

1161
00:58:33,120 --> 00:58:34,560
Speaker 5: to the line, make your free throws. You gotta get

1162
00:58:34,600 --> 00:58:37,040
Speaker 5: offensive rebounds. Duke's not nationally elite and offensive rebounds are

1163
00:58:37,040 --> 00:58:38,800
Speaker 5: getting in the line, but they're good enough. And then

1164
00:58:38,840 --> 00:58:40,920
Speaker 5: you got to hit your threes. You gotta hit. You

1165
00:58:40,920 --> 00:58:43,240
Speaker 5: gotta move the ball and hit your threes against that

1166
00:58:43,280 --> 00:58:48,080
Speaker 5: aggressive swarming defense. Duke certainly has the shooting and they

1167
00:58:48,080 --> 00:58:51,320
Speaker 5: can make contested jumpers if you look catch and shoot

1168
00:58:52,440 --> 00:58:54,800
Speaker 5: jumpers per Synergy, both these teams are like ninety eighth

1169
00:58:54,800 --> 00:58:57,640
Speaker 5: and ninety nine percentile Duke on offense Houston defense. Something

1170
00:58:57,680 --> 00:59:00,000
Speaker 5: has to give. If Duke goes fourteen to twenty three,

1171
00:59:01,120 --> 00:59:03,200
Speaker 5: yes they're gonna win. But no one does that against Houston.

1172
00:59:03,520 --> 00:59:07,040
Speaker 5: Six straight years, Covin Sampson's club has held opponents to

1173
00:59:07,120 --> 00:59:10,720
Speaker 5: thirty percent or less from three all that length. They're

1174
00:59:10,760 --> 00:59:13,280
Speaker 5: so well schooled they always close out well. So even

1175
00:59:13,280 --> 00:59:15,440
Speaker 5: though they give up a ton of attempts, it's very,

1176
00:59:15,920 --> 00:59:18,840
Speaker 5: very difficult to make long twos and threes against them.

1177
00:59:19,000 --> 00:59:22,440
Speaker 5: The data doesn't lie for six seven years. But Ken

1178
00:59:22,520 --> 00:59:25,520
Speaker 5: Duke hit those jump shots, and Ken they handle the physicality.

1179
00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:30,240
Speaker 5: You'll notice that I think early, especially on the defensive end,

1180
00:59:30,600 --> 00:59:34,040
Speaker 5: are they able to battle on the glass against Houston,

1181
00:59:34,080 --> 00:59:36,960
Speaker 5: who makes its living. You know, Duke will make you

1182
00:59:37,040 --> 00:59:40,040
Speaker 5: work very good perimeter defense. They're good and picked against

1183
00:59:40,080 --> 00:59:42,120
Speaker 5: pick and roll, which is important against Houston. They make

1184
00:59:42,160 --> 00:59:44,520
Speaker 5: you work until you know late in the shot clock.

1185
00:59:44,960 --> 00:59:47,800
Speaker 5: Although Houston their offense screers out very well late in

1186
00:59:47,800 --> 00:59:51,040
Speaker 5: the shot clock, the tough shot makers. Shed always tends

1187
00:59:51,080 --> 00:59:52,880
Speaker 5: to make the right decision. They never turn the ball over,

1188
00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:54,960
Speaker 5: but they do most of the work on the offensive glass.

1189
00:59:55,480 --> 00:59:58,960
Speaker 5: So Ken Duke deal with the physicality, get those fifty

1190
00:59:58,960 --> 01:00:02,440
Speaker 5: to fifty balls if they can. You know they have

1191
01:00:02,480 --> 01:00:04,200
Speaker 5: pass to the offense here. This is a game I

1192
01:00:04,240 --> 01:00:06,640
Speaker 5: want to bet live because even though Houston games are

1193
01:00:06,680 --> 01:00:09,960
Speaker 5: lower scoring, and you know, while Duke hasn't done well

1194
01:00:10,000 --> 01:00:12,240
Speaker 5: physical teams, they have a really struggled team to get

1195
01:00:12,240 --> 01:00:14,080
Speaker 5: out on transition and cook them there, that's not going

1196
01:00:14,160 --> 01:00:14,600
Speaker 5: to be the case.

1197
01:00:14,600 --> 01:00:14,760
Speaker 1: Here.

1198
01:00:14,840 --> 01:00:16,640
Speaker 5: Do very comfortable in a half court, so they do

1199
01:00:16,680 --> 01:00:19,480
Speaker 5: have that going for them. Duke plays slow, Houston plays

1200
01:00:19,520 --> 01:00:24,560
Speaker 5: really slow. I like the under here and Duke thirteen

1201
01:00:24,600 --> 01:00:26,400
Speaker 5: and three to the under. In their past sixteen games.

1202
01:00:26,400 --> 01:00:29,160
Speaker 5: They turned into an under team. And I'll look to

1203
01:00:29,240 --> 01:00:31,840
Speaker 5: live bett if Duke's just off shooting early, but it

1204
01:00:31,840 --> 01:00:34,040
Speaker 5: looks like they can handle the physicality, I look to

1205
01:00:34,080 --> 01:00:37,760
Speaker 5: bet Duke live, and if Duke's hot from three, I'll

1206
01:00:37,760 --> 01:00:42,200
Speaker 5: look to bet Houston live because I love live betting

1207
01:00:42,240 --> 01:00:45,240
Speaker 5: Houston games. Even though they're lower scoring, Houston's offense is

1208
01:00:45,240 --> 01:00:48,000
Speaker 5: going to go through droughts they take tough shots, and

1209
01:00:48,040 --> 01:00:50,840
Speaker 5: their defense is going to go through extended stretches where

1210
01:00:50,840 --> 01:00:53,120
Speaker 5: you can't score on them. So it lends to these

1211
01:00:53,200 --> 01:00:55,280
Speaker 5: pretty big swings which I'll see here, and it's just

1212
01:00:55,320 --> 01:00:56,880
Speaker 5: gonna come down to the Dukes three point shooting. Are

1213
01:00:56,880 --> 01:00:59,360
Speaker 5: they making those shots in this game? And I think

1214
01:00:59,360 --> 01:01:02,880
Speaker 5: they'll have some ebs and flows, but a lot of

1215
01:01:02,920 --> 01:01:04,960
Speaker 5: it will come down to whether they can handle the physicality.

1216
01:01:04,960 --> 01:01:08,200
Speaker 5: And along the same lines, it's the whistle. Houston really

1217
01:01:08,280 --> 01:01:10,960
Speaker 5: lacks depth now. Saw that against Text and m Ken.

1218
01:01:11,880 --> 01:01:14,880
Speaker 5: They impose their will without getting called for every little

1219
01:01:14,880 --> 01:01:17,600
Speaker 5: tiki tech. Foal should mention Jwan Roberts dealing with a

1220
01:01:17,640 --> 01:01:20,720
Speaker 5: lot of nagging injuries. It can will he be one

1221
01:01:20,800 --> 01:01:23,560
Speaker 5: hundred percent throughout? He's obviously important in this game, But

1222
01:01:23,680 --> 01:01:26,640
Speaker 5: I think ultimately just comes down to Duke dealing with

1223
01:01:26,680 --> 01:01:29,520
Speaker 5: the physicality, which they've struggled with now for two seasons.

1224
01:01:29,880 --> 01:01:32,000
Speaker 5: I think that'll ultimately might be the difference. I'll trust

1225
01:01:32,080 --> 01:01:35,760
Speaker 5: the experience of Shedding Company and that defense in Dallas

1226
01:01:35,800 --> 01:01:39,720
Speaker 5: to get through, but I'm pretty close to market Calgaryes.

1227
01:01:39,720 --> 01:01:40,840
Speaker 1: I'll go to you. What do you see?

1228
01:01:41,640 --> 01:01:43,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, the way he broke it down I think the

1229
01:01:43,360 --> 01:01:45,919
Speaker 3: key is the preferred pace for Duke. They are fifth

1230
01:01:46,000 --> 01:01:49,360
Speaker 3: nationally in terms of playing games considerably slower than their

1231
01:01:49,400 --> 01:01:53,160
Speaker 3: average tempo, and that is very important to me becausing

1232
01:01:53,200 --> 01:01:55,080
Speaker 3: that lends to the exact kind of game script we're

1233
01:01:55,080 --> 01:01:57,880
Speaker 3: going to have. They have the formula very low turnover rate,

1234
01:01:58,320 --> 01:02:00,680
Speaker 3: as you mentioned, good but not the league, defensive rebounding

1235
01:02:00,680 --> 01:02:05,320
Speaker 3: their fiftieth and defensive rebounding percentage. They have multiple knockdown shooters, whistles,

1236
01:02:05,320 --> 01:02:07,600
Speaker 3: and officiating goes without saying it's going to be key

1237
01:02:07,600 --> 01:02:09,640
Speaker 3: in this game because Houston just doesn't have the depth.

1238
01:02:10,320 --> 01:02:12,000
Speaker 6: I think I'm gonna go with a prop here.

1239
01:02:12,480 --> 01:02:14,680
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with this game to be decided by

1240
01:02:14,840 --> 01:02:17,200
Speaker 3: less than five points in either direction. I can look

1241
01:02:17,240 --> 01:02:19,840
Speaker 3: it up while Randall's giving his take on this, what

1242
01:02:19,920 --> 01:02:21,120
Speaker 3: the latest number is.

1243
01:02:21,160 --> 01:02:22,920
Speaker 6: But I just have this feeling.

1244
01:02:22,760 --> 01:02:25,360
Speaker 3: That it's going to come down to the final ninety seconds.

1245
01:02:26,120 --> 01:02:29,360
Speaker 3: And for that reason, you know, I think that Duke

1246
01:02:29,520 --> 01:02:33,320
Speaker 3: in general, in terms of playing against more physical teams,

1247
01:02:33,440 --> 01:02:35,480
Speaker 3: if this was a physical team that was playing faster,

1248
01:02:35,840 --> 01:02:38,800
Speaker 3: I think them beating them up and leading to more

1249
01:02:38,800 --> 01:02:40,920
Speaker 3: possessions could be a bigger advantage for Houston. But the

1250
01:02:40,960 --> 01:02:43,200
Speaker 3: fact is, I think this will be a low possession game,

1251
01:02:43,400 --> 01:02:46,200
Speaker 3: a grinding out half court game that plays towards the

1252
01:02:46,200 --> 01:02:46,720
Speaker 3: blue level.

1253
01:02:46,800 --> 01:02:48,960
Speaker 6: So I'll look up these odds here.

1254
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:51,280
Speaker 1: Randall always doing that.

1255
01:02:51,280 --> 01:02:53,600
Speaker 2: What he's saying here, Yeah, you had it stuck. I

1256
01:02:53,640 --> 01:02:56,360
Speaker 2: think the Blue Devils are soft. I do. I think

1257
01:02:56,440 --> 01:02:59,439
Speaker 2: they're going to be. They're overinflated because of what happened

1258
01:02:59,480 --> 01:03:02,120
Speaker 2: in those first two games, and I think the market

1259
01:03:02,160 --> 01:03:04,920
Speaker 2: is overcorrecting with Houston because of that rough matchup for

1260
01:03:05,000 --> 01:03:06,880
Speaker 2: Texas and in which we knew was going to be tough.

1261
01:03:07,280 --> 01:03:10,400
Speaker 2: Everyone got in foul trouble and they escaped. But the

1262
01:03:11,120 --> 01:03:12,640
Speaker 2: two of the bets that I love right away, and

1263
01:03:12,680 --> 01:03:15,520
Speaker 2: I'm curious what Nick Giffin and Sean Kerner are gonna think.

1264
01:03:15,920 --> 01:03:19,000
Speaker 2: I'm going Jared McCain under thirteen and a half points,

1265
01:03:19,040 --> 01:03:21,520
Speaker 2: and I'm also going under two and a half May threes,

1266
01:03:21,560 --> 01:03:25,200
Speaker 2: which at BETMGM is rejuiced heavily to the under. You

1267
01:03:25,360 --> 01:03:28,360
Speaker 2: nailed it with the Cougar's perimeter defense. They are not

1268
01:03:28,400 --> 01:03:31,760
Speaker 2: gonna let Duco nuts from three. That game against James

1269
01:03:31,760 --> 01:03:35,080
Speaker 2: Madison was the perfect live betting situation. Once they got

1270
01:03:35,120 --> 01:03:37,960
Speaker 2: hot early and Terrence Williams had two fouls that game

1271
01:03:38,160 --> 01:03:41,920
Speaker 2: was over. There was no path Houston's physicality. It mirrors

1272
01:03:41,920 --> 01:03:44,600
Speaker 2: Tennessee last year. Knowasa Kaizegler. They were still able to

1273
01:03:44,600 --> 01:03:48,360
Speaker 2: push them around. Philipowski's had games where he scored twenty

1274
01:03:48,400 --> 01:03:51,120
Speaker 2: twenty five points, but they lose those games because they

1275
01:03:51,160 --> 01:03:53,560
Speaker 2: need perimeter scoring. I'm not sold on Jeremy Roach, who

1276
01:03:53,560 --> 01:03:55,400
Speaker 2: has hurt a little bit in that last game as well.

1277
01:03:55,920 --> 01:03:59,120
Speaker 2: Houston advances. I'm laying the points. I don't trust Duke here.

1278
01:03:59,280 --> 01:04:02,000
Speaker 2: They have not seen the type of pressure and defensive

1279
01:04:02,040 --> 01:04:04,840
Speaker 2: intensity really the whole season that they're going to see here.

1280
01:04:05,000 --> 01:04:07,040
Speaker 2: And the only time they ran up against tough teams

1281
01:04:07,160 --> 01:04:10,200
Speaker 2: who are defensive mind in the ACC, who have good

1282
01:04:10,240 --> 01:04:13,360
Speaker 2: defensive metrics like North Carolina, they lost, including the last

1283
01:04:13,360 --> 01:04:16,240
Speaker 2: game of the regular season at home with the ACC

1284
01:04:16,320 --> 01:04:18,160
Speaker 2: title on the line. You're not going to get more

1285
01:04:18,160 --> 01:04:20,200
Speaker 2: of an effort spot than that. I think Houston wins

1286
01:04:20,200 --> 01:04:20,840
Speaker 2: and covers here.

1287
01:04:21,760 --> 01:04:21,960
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1288
01:04:22,000 --> 01:04:24,840
Speaker 5: Obviously Edwards who's down the transfer portal, getting his early

1289
01:04:24,840 --> 01:04:27,800
Speaker 5: fal tro over, James Madison hurt and Duke shooting fourteen

1290
01:04:27,800 --> 01:04:31,520
Speaker 5: to twenty eight from three, that's gonna happen. They obviously

1291
01:04:31,560 --> 01:04:34,520
Speaker 5: have a ton of talent, but they're definitely going to

1292
01:04:34,560 --> 01:04:36,600
Speaker 5: be in at dis event in the physicality department.

1293
01:04:36,600 --> 01:04:39,000
Speaker 1: Anything you want to add, Calabary's if.

1294
01:04:38,880 --> 01:04:40,600
Speaker 3: You take either team to win by five or few,

1295
01:04:40,640 --> 01:04:43,000
Speaker 3: or it's plus one sixty five plus one seventy in

1296
01:04:43,040 --> 01:04:45,680
Speaker 3: the market, which means that assuredly this game is going

1297
01:04:45,720 --> 01:04:47,280
Speaker 3: to go to overtime and a team's gonna win by eight,

1298
01:04:47,280 --> 01:04:49,000
Speaker 3: because that's how my entire tournament has gone.

1299
01:04:49,200 --> 01:04:51,680
Speaker 6: Just BET's going to die in the extra period.

1300
01:04:52,920 --> 01:04:55,640
Speaker 5: Same, All right, Let's move on to the final game

1301
01:04:56,080 --> 01:04:59,320
Speaker 5: of the Sweet sixteen Friday ten or nine Eastern TBS

1302
01:05:00,000 --> 01:05:05,960
Speaker 5: Detroit Creighton taking on Tennessee. Tennessee is a two and

1303
01:05:06,000 --> 01:05:08,720
Speaker 5: a half point favored here total sitting at one forty

1304
01:05:08,760 --> 01:05:13,320
Speaker 5: four and a half. These teams eighteen tournament appearances since

1305
01:05:14,640 --> 01:05:20,240
Speaker 5: the tournament expansion. Neither has made the Final four, so

1306
01:05:20,320 --> 01:05:23,040
Speaker 5: both looking for their first final four appearance, will have

1307
01:05:23,040 --> 01:05:25,760
Speaker 5: to win two games this weekend to get there. This

1308
01:05:25,840 --> 01:05:30,680
Speaker 5: is similar to the Houston Duke game. For me, Ken

1309
01:05:30,720 --> 01:05:33,920
Speaker 5: Creighton handle the physicality of Tennessee that ultimately might be

1310
01:05:33,960 --> 01:05:36,439
Speaker 5: the difference, especially the ball pressure on the outside. What's

1311
01:05:36,440 --> 01:05:40,280
Speaker 5: Steven Ashworth gonna do. Tennessee has ken pressure for the ball.

1312
01:05:41,400 --> 01:05:44,080
Speaker 5: Crayton looking their high parents teams. They shoot a ton

1313
01:05:44,080 --> 01:05:45,680
Speaker 5: of three, shoot a top ten rate, make them in

1314
01:05:45,720 --> 01:05:47,360
Speaker 5: a top thirty clip. They're gonna get off a ton

1315
01:05:47,360 --> 01:05:49,840
Speaker 5: of threes. But Tennessee defends the three as well as

1316
01:05:49,840 --> 01:05:52,520
Speaker 5: any team in the country. They could test everything ninety

1317
01:05:52,600 --> 01:05:56,080
Speaker 5: ninth percentile and guarded jump shot rate per Sentergy. Both

1318
01:05:56,080 --> 01:05:59,040
Speaker 5: these teams take away the three, elite at defending at

1319
01:05:59,040 --> 01:06:02,600
Speaker 5: the ring to work in the mid range. Creyton hates

1320
01:06:02,600 --> 01:06:04,200
Speaker 5: doing it. They never work in the mid range, although

1321
01:06:04,200 --> 01:06:06,720
Speaker 5: they're like top two in mid range percentage. Shroud Xander's

1322
01:06:06,760 --> 01:06:10,920
Speaker 5: great there. Tennessee's defense much better at defending their mid range,

1323
01:06:10,960 --> 01:06:13,480
Speaker 5: and they have Dalton connect he's not. I don't think

1324
01:06:13,480 --> 01:06:16,760
Speaker 5: he's gonna have another bad game. Tennessee survived the three

1325
01:06:16,760 --> 01:06:21,240
Speaker 5: of twenty five shooting game from three. Meanwhile, Creighton shot

1326
01:06:21,320 --> 01:06:24,160
Speaker 5: forty six percent from three and their opponents twenty six

1327
01:06:24,200 --> 01:06:25,560
Speaker 5: percent in the first two games.

1328
01:06:25,480 --> 01:06:27,439
Speaker 1: And they arguably shouldn't be here.

1329
01:06:28,120 --> 01:06:31,280
Speaker 5: So I think Tennessee is gonna get more shots, more

1330
01:06:31,280 --> 01:06:33,840
Speaker 5: possession because they're gonna force more turnovers. Creighton never forces

1331
01:06:33,840 --> 01:06:36,120
Speaker 5: turnovers and they're gonna get more offensive rebounds. Crayton good

1332
01:06:36,120 --> 01:06:39,800
Speaker 5: to the defensive glass, but Tennessee will still get their

1333
01:06:39,800 --> 01:06:42,080
Speaker 5: boards and Create doesn't go after all, it's a rebounds,

1334
01:06:42,520 --> 01:06:44,919
Speaker 5: So I think Connect is gonna be the difference maker.

1335
01:06:45,560 --> 01:06:48,000
Speaker 5: Valtro will be important to watch now the BIG's battling

1336
01:06:48,040 --> 01:06:51,600
Speaker 5: down low. But and I know barneses been horrific in

1337
01:06:51,640 --> 01:06:54,920
Speaker 5: the tournament. I think one in fourteen against the spread

1338
01:06:55,400 --> 01:06:57,840
Speaker 5: since twenty ten is a favorite of under ten or

1339
01:06:57,880 --> 01:07:02,000
Speaker 5: an underdog, which is definitely trouble. But I'm gonna trust Connect.

1340
01:07:02,600 --> 01:07:06,080
Speaker 5: The pressure defense, the pressure on perimeter defense of Tennessee,

1341
01:07:06,480 --> 01:07:08,520
Speaker 5: and the fact that they have the bodies to throw

1342
01:07:08,560 --> 01:07:11,640
Speaker 5: a call runner and just that physicality. I think again,

1343
01:07:12,200 --> 01:07:14,440
Speaker 5: you just have to hope Creighton doesn't go nuclear from three.

1344
01:07:15,000 --> 01:07:17,600
Speaker 5: But I like the balls here Randolph throw to you.

1345
01:07:18,720 --> 01:07:20,720
Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, guys, this scares the hell out of me

1346
01:07:20,960 --> 01:07:23,720
Speaker 2: because I've been fading Creighton all year. But they have

1347
01:07:23,840 --> 01:07:27,760
Speaker 2: those great Ken Palm metrics on offense defense efficiency, and

1348
01:07:27,800 --> 01:07:31,080
Speaker 2: they're just lurking. They're hanging around. They should have lost

1349
01:07:31,080 --> 01:07:33,880
Speaker 2: to Oregon, but you got Dante coming back to the ball, shoots,

1350
01:07:33,880 --> 01:07:36,760
Speaker 2: the free throw instead of a more secure free throw shooter.

1351
01:07:37,000 --> 01:07:39,920
Speaker 2: But they're right here, however, stuck, I think Connect they

1352
01:07:39,960 --> 01:07:43,080
Speaker 2: have no answer for he should have a monster game here.

1353
01:07:43,880 --> 01:07:46,440
Speaker 2: Dylan Mitchell really locked him up and caused a lot

1354
01:07:46,480 --> 01:07:49,640
Speaker 2: of problems. Creyton doesn't have that player. Now. I do

1355
01:07:49,720 --> 01:07:51,360
Speaker 2: think what I've seen, and I saw this in the

1356
01:07:51,360 --> 01:07:54,680
Speaker 2: Big East Tournament with Creighton Trey Alexander is doing a

1357
01:07:54,760 --> 01:07:58,400
Speaker 2: much better job of attacking the paint, getting to the basket,

1358
01:07:58,600 --> 01:08:01,440
Speaker 2: and sort of collapsing defences a little bit. So if

1359
01:08:01,480 --> 01:08:03,720
Speaker 2: he has a monster game, Creighton is gonna make this

1360
01:08:03,880 --> 01:08:06,800
Speaker 2: really really uncomfortable for me. But I am on Tennessee.

1361
01:08:07,160 --> 01:08:10,760
Speaker 2: Zakai Ziggler here wasn't here last year against Florida Atlantic

1362
01:08:10,840 --> 01:08:13,480
Speaker 2: and they were dominating that game against Florida Atlantic and

1363
01:08:13,520 --> 01:08:15,840
Speaker 2: then they just gave up a bevy of threes. They

1364
01:08:15,880 --> 01:08:20,080
Speaker 2: cannot let that happen against Crayton. Shireman Is kalk Brenner

1365
01:08:20,080 --> 01:08:21,800
Speaker 2: inside has hurt me twice with the over on his

1366
01:08:21,920 --> 01:08:24,879
Speaker 2: points props. I don't think that's gonna happen again, assuming

1367
01:08:24,880 --> 01:08:27,960
Speaker 2: that we have reasonable foul trouble. Huge game from Dalton Connect.

1368
01:08:27,960 --> 01:08:29,640
Speaker 2: I got the over on his prop as well. And

1369
01:08:29,680 --> 01:08:32,479
Speaker 2: I do think Tennessee wins. Just don't give me one

1370
01:08:32,479 --> 01:08:34,840
Speaker 2: of these eleven of fifteen from three point games with

1371
01:08:34,960 --> 01:08:37,639
Speaker 2: Crayton because it's not going to continue the whole tournament.

1372
01:08:37,760 --> 01:08:39,760
Speaker 2: They're gonna have a bad game. I just hope it's

1373
01:08:39,800 --> 01:08:40,679
Speaker 2: here against Tennessee.

1374
01:08:40,880 --> 01:08:41,400
Speaker 1: Cayl Reese.

1375
01:08:41,439 --> 01:08:44,200
Speaker 3: Is this your time to slander Rick Barnes, Oh, most definitely.

1376
01:08:44,720 --> 01:08:47,040
Speaker 3: But I'll start with this, Yes, Creyton is lucky to

1377
01:08:47,080 --> 01:08:47,479
Speaker 3: be here.

1378
01:08:47,600 --> 01:08:48,840
Speaker 6: You know they shouldn't beat.

1379
01:08:48,720 --> 01:08:51,519
Speaker 3: Oregon, but this team still has a top gear against

1380
01:08:51,720 --> 01:08:54,639
Speaker 3: really elite competition. They beat Yukon by nineteen, they beat

1381
01:08:54,680 --> 01:08:57,599
Speaker 3: Marque Markup by fourteen. They beat Alabama in a shootout

1382
01:08:57,600 --> 01:09:00,760
Speaker 3: as well. They're a little two three point for me

1383
01:09:01,040 --> 01:09:01,680
Speaker 3: to go with them.

1384
01:09:01,720 --> 01:09:03,320
Speaker 5: You know, you could beat anyone when they're going off

1385
01:09:03,320 --> 01:09:03,959
Speaker 5: from three.

1386
01:09:03,760 --> 01:09:06,320
Speaker 3: But exactly they fire up nearly thirty per game. In

1387
01:09:06,400 --> 01:09:08,519
Speaker 3: terms of like buying a future on them, it makes

1388
01:09:08,560 --> 01:09:11,280
Speaker 3: me less interested because they have to string together that

1389
01:09:11,360 --> 01:09:13,360
Speaker 3: many games where the threes are dropping. But in a

1390
01:09:13,360 --> 01:09:16,599
Speaker 3: single game here, let's talk about Tessay. I'll put Rick

1391
01:09:16,640 --> 01:09:18,719
Speaker 3: Barnes aside. We all know that I think Rick Barnes

1392
01:09:18,960 --> 01:09:21,360
Speaker 3: is a big time liability. In March four and sixteen

1393
01:09:21,400 --> 01:09:23,759
Speaker 3: against the spread in his last twenty tournament games.

1394
01:09:23,800 --> 01:09:26,200
Speaker 6: It's not a blip. It's been fifteen years of this.

1395
01:09:26,360 --> 01:09:28,960
Speaker 6: But let's just look at the players on the floor here.

1396
01:09:29,040 --> 01:09:31,440
Speaker 3: In the Year of Our Lord twenty twenty four, Tennessee

1397
01:09:31,800 --> 01:09:34,040
Speaker 3: in their last four games, they lost to Kentucky at

1398
01:09:34,040 --> 01:09:37,320
Speaker 3: home despite a forty point game from connect So he

1399
01:09:37,479 --> 01:09:40,200
Speaker 3: showed up and it still didn't matter. They look disinterested

1400
01:09:40,320 --> 01:09:42,600
Speaker 3: in a blowout loss to Mississippi State where if they

1401
01:09:42,680 --> 01:09:45,479
Speaker 3: win the SEC Tournament in Nashville, they're probably a one

1402
01:09:45,520 --> 01:09:48,000
Speaker 3: seed instead of a two seed, and then they nearly

1403
01:09:48,080 --> 01:09:51,120
Speaker 3: blow a double digit halftime lead to Texas.

1404
01:09:50,680 --> 01:09:51,360
Speaker 6: And win by four.

1405
01:09:51,520 --> 01:09:53,759
Speaker 3: I understand they shot, you know, three for a million

1406
01:09:53,920 --> 01:09:56,680
Speaker 3: from three point range, but that is not the kind

1407
01:09:56,720 --> 01:09:59,120
Speaker 3: of positive momentum you want to come into the second weekend,

1408
01:09:59,240 --> 01:10:01,320
Speaker 3: particularly with a that's trying to get a monkey off

1409
01:10:01,320 --> 01:10:03,760
Speaker 3: his back, that has struggled and hasn't won a game

1410
01:10:03,800 --> 01:10:05,880
Speaker 3: in the second weekend in what two thousand and seven,

1411
01:10:05,920 --> 01:10:08,320
Speaker 3: two thousand and eight. So I think I'm gonna go

1412
01:10:08,320 --> 01:10:12,160
Speaker 3: with Creighton here. I think it doesn't feel tremendous given

1413
01:10:12,200 --> 01:10:14,360
Speaker 3: the fact that they should have lost that organ game.

1414
01:10:14,520 --> 01:10:17,280
Speaker 3: But when I look at Tennessee, it's not just the

1415
01:10:17,520 --> 01:10:21,080
Speaker 3: numbers on Barns, it's the play recently and offensively. In

1416
01:10:21,080 --> 01:10:23,000
Speaker 3: the last month. They've slid all the way back to

1417
01:10:23,080 --> 01:10:25,840
Speaker 3: one hundred and forty fifth nationally and tourvik on the

1418
01:10:25,920 --> 01:10:29,559
Speaker 3: offensive adjusted efficiency metrics. So I think there's some morts

1419
01:10:29,600 --> 01:10:31,240
Speaker 3: on this team. I think they were playing their better

1420
01:10:31,240 --> 01:10:32,920
Speaker 3: basketball two months ago.

1421
01:10:33,080 --> 01:10:34,960
Speaker 6: We've talked about this a lot. Stuck. There's teams like

1422
01:10:35,160 --> 01:10:37,080
Speaker 6: Wazoo was playing better two months ago.

1423
01:10:37,320 --> 01:10:39,000
Speaker 3: It's just a shame that they couldn't head into the

1424
01:10:39,000 --> 01:10:40,560
Speaker 3: tournament at the end of January.

1425
01:10:40,680 --> 01:10:42,120
Speaker 6: I kind of feel that way with Tennessee.

1426
01:10:42,200 --> 01:10:44,800
Speaker 3: I think they were a legit national title contender. They

1427
01:10:44,800 --> 01:10:45,759
Speaker 3: could have beaten anybody.

1428
01:10:45,880 --> 01:10:47,720
Speaker 6: They're just not playing their best basketball right now. So

1429
01:10:47,760 --> 01:10:49,479
Speaker 6: I'm going to go with the Blue Jays money line,

1430
01:10:49,600 --> 01:10:49,880
Speaker 6: all right.

1431
01:10:49,920 --> 01:10:51,320
Speaker 5: I know you got to run one word before you go,

1432
01:10:51,400 --> 01:10:52,639
Speaker 5: favorite tweet sixteen bat.

1433
01:10:53,000 --> 01:10:57,040
Speaker 2: Favorite sweet sixteen bat. I'm going my Clemson Tigers to

1434
01:10:57,200 --> 01:11:00,760
Speaker 2: cover no problem and win outright against Arizona.

1435
01:11:01,280 --> 01:11:02,920
Speaker 1: There you go, I'm going scary.

1436
01:11:03,040 --> 01:11:06,480
Speaker 5: I'm going to San Diego State keep it within single digits.

1437
01:11:06,920 --> 01:11:09,959
Speaker 5: It was about tenth fine too. Calgary's just real quick.

1438
01:11:09,720 --> 01:11:12,200
Speaker 3: To give an extra boost to Randall. Clemson the number

1439
01:11:12,200 --> 01:11:14,479
Speaker 3: one team remaining in the tournament according to Evan and

1440
01:11:14,520 --> 01:11:17,000
Speaker 3: Mea in terms of playing up against quality opponents.

1441
01:11:17,040 --> 01:11:18,599
Speaker 6: So I think that that's a good look there.

1442
01:11:18,720 --> 01:11:20,400
Speaker 3: I think the easiest money on the board is North

1443
01:11:20,439 --> 01:11:23,000
Speaker 3: Carolina over eighty nine to ninety on their team total.

1444
01:11:23,000 --> 01:11:25,040
Speaker 3: Alabama can't play any defense. I think it's going to

1445
01:11:25,080 --> 01:11:27,720
Speaker 3: be a track meet. I think they get to triple digits.

1446
01:11:27,360 --> 01:11:27,800
Speaker 1: All right.

1447
01:11:27,920 --> 01:11:30,040
Speaker 5: That'll do it for us and this sixteen BETTINGGG to

1448
01:11:30,040 --> 01:11:31,840
Speaker 5: make sure you check us out. BBOC lodvee ten thirty

1449
01:11:31,880 --> 01:11:33,960
Speaker 5: eight Eastern Tomorrow will also be back for the Elit

1450
01:11:34,000 --> 01:11:36,160
Speaker 5: eight Saturday ten thirty eight of Eastern and then we

1451
01:11:36,160 --> 01:11:39,360
Speaker 5: will have our final four brevi you next week on

1452
01:11:39,520 --> 01:11:42,160
Speaker 5: this channel. But thanks for tuning in, Good luck on

1453
01:11:42,280 --> 01:11:44,040
Speaker 5: all of your waitress Thanks to Mike and Michael joining me.

1454
01:11:44,080 --> 01:11:44,320
Speaker 1: Next tour.

1455
01:11:44,320 --> 01:11:45,760
Speaker 5: CRUs in the back end was spoorly. Thanks to Love

1456
01:11:45,880 --> 01:11:48,680
Speaker 5: for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe, subcribe subscribes to

1457
01:11:48,680 --> 01:11:50,360
Speaker 5: off Friend, Tell on Enemy, leave a review I five

1458
01:11:50,360 --> 01:11:51,800
Speaker 5: star if that really helps out all to give aways

1459
01:11:51,800 --> 01:11:52,160
Speaker 5: next week.

1460
01:11:52,160 --> 01:11:53,479
Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in We'll.

1461
01:11:53,280 --> 01:11:57,280
Speaker 5: See you for the BBOC Lodge shows this weekend and

1462
01:11:57,400 --> 01:11:58,320
Speaker 5: for the final.

1463
01:11:58,040 --> 01:12:12,360
Speaker 7: Four episode of next week Cheers.

1464
01:12:13,400 --> 01:12:16,840
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1465
01:12:17,240 --> 01:12:20,080
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1466
01:12:20,360 --> 01:12:23,000
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1467
01:12:23,080 --> 01:12:23,839
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler