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Speaker 1: Hey, welcome in Lake kick on. The area is Thursday night,

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Speaker 1: January sixth The over Lord twenty twenty two, The Dog

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Speaker 1: sled the huskieser just outside the studio Producer Jesse, director

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Speaker 1: Colin and myself. Look, we're not quite live tonight, but

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Speaker 1: we had to get this thing in. Massive snowstorm moving

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Speaker 1: through the downtown Nashville area. Even as we speak. It's

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Speaker 1: gonna be a tough trip home. But we had to

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Speaker 1: get it in because it is not a spring game,

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Speaker 1: it's not preseason. We don't do that in college football.

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Speaker 1: It's the national championship game. And as we have told

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Speaker 1: you for about a month, this is the night, the

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Speaker 1: Thursday before the Monday in Indianapolis, when we're going to

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Speaker 1: predict the national Championship. So we will have a full

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Speaker 1: game preview tonight. Mere moments from now. We will predict

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Speaker 1: the winner. We will give you our pick against the spread,

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Speaker 1: We'll show you what the model things. I'm gonna tell

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Speaker 1: you what each team needs to do to win. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna tell you what those semi final games meant. And

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Speaker 1: I'm also gonna tell you what, if anything we'll see

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Speaker 1: repeated from the SEC Championship game, which seems like five

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Speaker 1: years ago. It's really just like a month ago. Thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for watching. We're high top snowy downtown Nashville, Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: Also tonight, a lot of you have been asking this already.

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Speaker 1: I tell you be patient, you tell me shut up.

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Speaker 1: You want to talk about twenty twenty two. Well, we're

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Speaker 1: not gonna quite do that, but I am going to

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Speaker 1: take a look at seven or eight teams in like

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Speaker 1: quick hitting fashion, and it's there are teams that, to

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Speaker 1: varying degrees, people think are going to be contenders, maybe

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Speaker 1: next year, maybe in the next couple of years. It's

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Speaker 1: a lot of big name programs. So I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to talk about SMU tonight. My apologies. There will be

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Speaker 1: time for that. But I'm gonna tell you what I

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Speaker 1: think because some of these I don't think have a prayer,

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Speaker 1: and some of the other ones I think maybe right

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Speaker 1: on the prespice, they may be ready whether we say

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Speaker 1: it or not tonight to be ready to go in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. Look, it's going to be a very

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Speaker 1: very interesting weekend because well, whenever we can get out

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Speaker 1: of here, we're gonna head to Indianapolis. We got the

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Speaker 1: national Championship game Monday. We are going to do Late

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Speaker 1: Kick live from Indianapolis somewhere Sunday night, so be on

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Speaker 1: the look out for that. But as you know, as

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Speaker 1: you've come to expect on my social accounts, basically the

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Speaker 1: show starts here. But really there's some stuff that I

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Speaker 1: show you, especially on game day on the Instagram Live

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Speaker 1: and the Instagram Story and Twitter that you can't get here.

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Speaker 1: I can't just go live every fifteen minutes. Make sure

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Speaker 1: you're following at Late Kick, Josh. So many of you do,

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Speaker 1: the few holdouts, the few of you who waited all

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Speaker 1: the way until the National Championship Game. Why not hop

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Speaker 1: on board now? Okay, I don't want to waste any

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Speaker 1: more time. We have got a jam packed show tonight,

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Speaker 1: So let's dive into this. Oh boy, look before Colin

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Speaker 1: and don't even start it yet. But before I even

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Speaker 1: get into the game preview, you got to understand how

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Speaker 1: big this is for someone like me. I have a

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Speaker 1: little bias here. I grew up right on the Chattahoochee River.

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Speaker 1: It's not just an Alan Jackson song. It's a real

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Speaker 1: river down there. It separates Alabama and Georgia. You got

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Speaker 1: Phoenix City on the Alabama side. You got Columbus on

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Speaker 1: the Georgia side. I grew up about fifteen minutes north

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Speaker 1: of Columbus and Forts and Georgia, not Fort Sun, but

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Speaker 1: Fortsun not Fort Benning, Fort Sun, Fortson, and Georgia and

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Speaker 1: Alabama and Auburn, like those are the three concentrated fan

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Speaker 1: bases there when we were growing up. A world where

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Speaker 1: two of those teams can meet in the National Championship

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Speaker 1: game was pure fiction. Obviously Alabama and Auburn could never

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Speaker 1: even meet in the SEC Championship game. Obviously Georgia and

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Speaker 1: Alabama could, but they didn't. Bama and Florida did like

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Speaker 1: thirty eight times Alabama Georgia, they really didn't. And at

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Speaker 1: Harris County High School that was the split. There was

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Speaker 1: a bunch of Bama kids those a bunch of Georgia kids.

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Speaker 1: Georgia had the upper hand. When I would have been

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Speaker 1: in high school. Nick Saban comes along right around that period,

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Speaker 1: But I just remember thinking like, how insane would it be?

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Speaker 1: The world would just spontaneously combust if these two ever

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Speaker 1: met in the SEC Championship game, much less for a

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Speaker 1: national championship, And how blessed am I you fast forward

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Speaker 1: a few years. Not only have they now as of

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Speaker 1: Monday night, met twice in five seasons for a national

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Speaker 1: championship and a couple more times in Atlanta for an

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Speaker 1: SEC championship. I actually get to cover it all. That

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Speaker 1: is a dream scenario. So just understand if I seem

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Speaker 1: a little more fired up than the mundane kind of

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Speaker 1: oo e or style. Here we go again, another SEC title.

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Speaker 1: It's because it means a little bit more to me.

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Speaker 1: Someone should start an ad campaign that reads like that,

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Speaker 1: it just means more. I think it would work. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's dive into this. Here we go Georgia Alabama for

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Speaker 1: the national championship. Where else would a team from Athens

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Speaker 1: face a team from Tuscaloosa but Indianapolis, Indiana on a

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Speaker 1: Monday night in January. I'm not going to complain about

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Speaker 1: the venue. I'm not going to complain about anything. It's

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Speaker 1: time to dive in and get to work here. Hey,

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Speaker 1: I got a question for you. When you talk about

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Speaker 1: stopping Alabama, when you talk about Georgia beating Alabama, who

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Speaker 1: is Alabama? What's the identity of the team? See a

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Speaker 1: lot of times, for instance, the last game Georgia played

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Speaker 1: against Michigan, you could pretty well decide Michigan was a

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Speaker 1: run first team. They work a lot of play action.

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Speaker 1: There's some trickeration here and there. That's Michigan. Twelve times

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Speaker 1: out of twelve, that's Michigan. Alabama, you have earthly idea

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Speaker 1: who they are week to week. I want you to

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Speaker 1: think about the stats I'm about to give you against

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Speaker 1: Georgia in the SEC Championship game. One of the reasons

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Speaker 1: why a lot of you, including myself maybe were so

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Speaker 1: surprised at the outcome was because you got so much

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Speaker 1: out of Alabama you had not gotten all year long.

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Speaker 1: Not just to mention the uptempo approach, not just to

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Speaker 1: mention the functionality of the offense. Not just to mention

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Speaker 1: so many guys coming through at the right time, including

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Speaker 1: that offensive line. Think about the fact that in terms

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Speaker 1: of run pass ratio the SEC Championship, Alabama ran it

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Speaker 1: twenty six times, they threw it forty seven times. You

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Speaker 1: flip the script when you go to the semi final game.

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Speaker 1: So they ran it twenty six times, passed it forty

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Speaker 1: seven times. Against Georgia, they ran it forty seven times

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Speaker 1: and passed it twenty eight times against Cincinnati. That is

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Speaker 1: a total inversion over a one game scenario of Alabama's

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Speaker 1: offensive identity. Nobody else out there does that. No one's

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Speaker 1: capable of doing it. It took a long time for

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Speaker 1: this Alabama I'm a team to get to this point.

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Speaker 1: They're so young. Kind of side note. Been trying to

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Speaker 1: tell you this is the team. You got a clip,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna get them, get them A and m did

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Speaker 1: will Georgia get them? I just I'm fascinated by this

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Speaker 1: because as you dive into like what it takes to win,

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Speaker 1: both teams have seen the path. At this point, when

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Speaker 1: we were going into Atlanta, we could not say that

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Speaker 1: about Bama, like Bama had not seen Georgia lose. Obama

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Speaker 1: was an underdog against Georgia. But now we're in the

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Speaker 1: National Championship game. Think about this as we dive into

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Speaker 1: the preview. Both teams have seen the path. Bama has

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Speaker 1: seen the path because they blazed it. They beat Georgia,

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Speaker 1: so there is no more guess work. Can it happen? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we did it already about a month ago. So Alabama

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Speaker 1: beat Georgia already. But even though Georgia hasn't beaten Alabama.

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Speaker 1: Everything that Georgia needs to have happened, they've seen happen

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Speaker 1: like two or three times. First off, A and M

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Speaker 1: flat out beat Alabama. Florida nearly did it. But if

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Speaker 1: Georgia does anything remotely along the lines of what LSU

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Speaker 1: was able to do to Alabama or what Auburn was

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Speaker 1: able to do to Alabama, Georgia will win the National Championship.

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Speaker 1: What a mouthful. By the way, Georgia will win the

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Speaker 1: National Championship. I know a lot of you who are

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Speaker 1: not emotionally tied into this thing. If you're not like

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Speaker 1: a Georgia fan, you're just watching and saying, oh, someone

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Speaker 1: will win Monday Night. Hey, if Bama wins, they just

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Speaker 1: kind of chunk it on top of the pile of

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Speaker 1: national championships they already have. If Georgia wins Monday Night,

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Speaker 1: you may be so caught up in the fact that, oh,

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Speaker 1: they finally beat Alabama, you may not even immediately realize,

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Speaker 1: hold up, they also won a title. They haven't done

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Speaker 1: that since flips through the book nineteen eighty. This would

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Speaker 1: be historic. If Georgia wins, what do they need to do?

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Speaker 1: What does Georgia have to have happen in this football game. Well,

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Speaker 1: it's quite simple in theory. It's a lot more difficult

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Speaker 1: to execute. Pretty simple in theory. You don't have to

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Speaker 1: go back far. What would it be at the time

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Speaker 1: of kickoff, about nine days prior. They did everything they

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Speaker 1: need to do. It was just against Michigan that they

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Speaker 1: did it. They controlled the line of scrimmage, which we

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Speaker 1: cannot say they did against Alabama. They consistently pressured the quarterback,

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Speaker 1: which we cannot say they did against Alabama. They ran

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Speaker 1: the ball for better than five yards per carry, which

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Speaker 1: we cannot say they did against Alabama. And therefore, thankfully

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Speaker 1: this is one of the last times I'll say this,

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Speaker 1: they afforded Stetson Bennett the luxury of passing rather than

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Speaker 1: put him into necessary passing situations. Now, those are four

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Speaker 1: very simple boxes to fathom. They are infinitely more difficult

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Speaker 1: to check, especially a critical mass. You can't just do

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Speaker 1: one or two, you need all of them. I would

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Speaker 1: not worry about shutting Alabama down. There's a lot of

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Speaker 1: talk out there about what Georgia's defense needs to do

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Speaker 1: to shut Alabama down with nothing. Don't worry about it.

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Speaker 1: Are you only planning on hanging three points or seven points.

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Speaker 1: If the answer is yes, don't even bother showing up.

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Speaker 1: Georgia can score. Georgia probably should expect to put out

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Speaker 1: a better offensive production number than they did against Alabama

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Speaker 1: last game. But look, if you're gonna get into the

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Speaker 1: mid twenties, upper twenties, if you're gonna be able to

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Speaker 1: score even to that degree, you don't have to shut

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Speaker 1: Alabama down. What you have to make sure you do

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Speaker 1: is number one, don't let their best beat you. Certainly.

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Speaker 1: I mean, there's gonna be a lot spoken about Jamison

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Speaker 1: Williams and the impact he's gonna have on this game,

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Speaker 1: Bryce Young, especially his scramble ability. Look, if you can

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Speaker 1: just focus on havoc pressure in other words, and if

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Speaker 1: you can just focus on forcing high leverage situations, Brece

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Speaker 1: Young's gonna make you pay in some of those. But

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Speaker 1: it's a whole lot more advantageous if you're making him

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Speaker 1: beat you on third nine with someone other than number

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Speaker 1: one Jamison Williams, then it is just sitting there third

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Speaker 1: and four picking you apart because it's a two down

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Speaker 1: situation virtually every time when they're third manageable anyway, That's

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Speaker 1: what Georgia needs. Are There's some other more intricacies that

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Speaker 1: we can get into in just a second, But on

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Speaker 1: the surface, that's really what Georgia needs. Can they do it?

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Speaker 1: It remains to be seen. What does Alabama need here?

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Speaker 1: You might say, well, they just need a replay of

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Speaker 1: the SEC Championship. That's not the way football works. They

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Speaker 1: score in threes and sevens in this game, so theoretically,

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Speaker 1: one bounce the ball could equal a swing in fourteen points.

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Speaker 1: You know, I was watching the replay of the SEC Championship,

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Speaker 1: by the way, because I'm always fascinated at how a

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Speaker 1: change in the trajectory of a game, just one degree,

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Speaker 1: when you you know, span it over four quarters can

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Speaker 1: make a three touchdown gulf on the scoreboard. You know,

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Speaker 1: in this game, it was ten to nothing Georgia and

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Speaker 1: Bama was facing a third and two. That was the

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Speaker 1: long touchdown to Williams. But I'm sitting there thinking the opposite.

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Speaker 1: I'm thinking, what if they had a false start and

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Speaker 1: it backed up and then they just there's an incomplete

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Speaker 1: pass or you know, it's a throw to the sideline

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Speaker 1: short of the sticks. Fourth down Bama punts That stuff

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Speaker 1: could just as easily happen. It didn't happen in the

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Speaker 1: SEC championship game. What I'm saying is when you claim

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Speaker 1: that all you gotta do is do what you did

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Speaker 1: in Atlanta the first time, that's not the way it works. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so this is an entirely separate game. They reset the scoreboard.

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Speaker 1: You got more injuries on the Bama side, You're probably

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Speaker 1: healthier on the Georgia side. And among those injuries, potentially

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Speaker 1: along the offensive line for Alabama, John Metchi certainly out

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Speaker 1: in this game. More on that than just a second.

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Speaker 1: So what does Bama need. They need, well, theoretically what

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Speaker 1: they had the first time. They need tempo, they need volume.

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Speaker 1: They do not need to settle in to this game.

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Speaker 1: They need to attack. Needs to be a pinball game.

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Speaker 1: They've got to get volume plays. That's what they need.

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Speaker 1: They need Georgia defensively on the field. They need to

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Speaker 1: get as many looks early on. They need to let

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Speaker 1: Bryce Young throw the ball as many times as possible.

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Speaker 1: You've got the better quarterback, You've got the best skill guy.

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Speaker 1: You got to let him work. You gotta let them work.

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Speaker 1: But speaking of that skill guy, to me, this is

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Speaker 1: one of the critical factors of this game. It's not

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Speaker 1: that hard to figure out Number one in Crimson, Jamison Williams.

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Speaker 1: All the attention will be on him. In fact, if

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Speaker 1: I were Georgia, I would almost be arrogant in my approach.

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Speaker 1: I would look at him and say, you will not

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Speaker 1: beat us with him. That is not going to happen again.

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Speaker 1: And look, if you think you've got someone else over

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Speaker 1: there that was in high school this time last year,

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Speaker 1: that's going to beat us, we'll tip our cap to you.

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Speaker 1: If you're able to pull that off, we'll tip our

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Speaker 1: cat to you. We don't think you can run it

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Speaker 1: on us successfully, and quite frankly, we really don't care

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Speaker 1: if you try, because once we get you in the

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Speaker 1: red zone, you were not going to break the goal

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Speaker 1: line running the ball on us, and we're not gonna

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Speaker 1: let you do it with number one. I don't care

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Speaker 1: what we have to dedicate to it. You are not

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Speaker 1: going to beat us with Jamison Williams. Which begs the

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Speaker 1: question your passing attack. Let's play a little fill in

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Speaker 1: the blank game. Your passing attack if you're Alabama, consists

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Speaker 1: of Jamison Williams, and and then there's the blank. Now

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Speaker 1: tell you where I think most people would go. Most

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Speaker 1: people would go, oh, I don't know, slave Bolden, nice

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Speaker 1: possession type receiver. That's okay, Bolden's not beating anyone. Well,

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Speaker 1: let's Jacorey Brooks. He's come on strong, right he has Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: Jacorey Brooks is a good option. And then you got

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Speaker 1: some other names like Christian Leary, Jojo Earl. These are

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Speaker 1: names that have promising futures. You know what I think

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Speaker 1: is gonna happen in this game. I think we're gonna

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Speaker 1: have a little repeat of that twenty fifteen National Championship game.

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Speaker 1: That one was out in Glendale, Arizona. There was a

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Speaker 1: guy who had all world potential, had a bunch of

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Speaker 1: stars next to his name. Coming out of high school.

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Speaker 1: He had played the whole year. It's just he had

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Speaker 1: not been leveraged in the past game. For whatever reason,

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Speaker 1: he had not been leveraged in the passing game. You'll

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Speaker 1: see Jamison Williams Monday night. But I'll tell you the

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Speaker 1: other name that, if my mind is right here, could

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Speaker 1: end up popping on the stat sheet, and that's Julil Billingsley,

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Speaker 1: the tight end number nineteen for Alabama. I think that's

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Speaker 1: the guy because you see, I have zero doubt in

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Speaker 1: my mind there'll be a ton of attention paid to

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Speaker 1: Jamison Williams. I have zero doubt in my mind Georgia

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Speaker 1: will force the issue with the Blitz, and therefore I

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Speaker 1: have very little doubt in my mind there will be

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Speaker 1: some fairly glaring mismatches out there. Georgia's banking on the

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Speaker 1: fact that you can't take advantage of them because you

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Speaker 1: won't have time. But they know there is a price

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Speaker 1: they pay when they bring extra pressure and they dedicate

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Speaker 1: extra resources to Jamison Williams. There will be a mismatch,

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Speaker 1: and I think it's going to be on Julia Billingsley.

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Speaker 1: And if I'm Georgia, if I'm Dan Lanning, if I'm

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Speaker 1: Kirby Smart, even if I listen to myself say that,

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Speaker 1: I'd say, I'm gonna make him show me. Jalil Billingsley

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Speaker 1: has not been a focal point of that passing game

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Speaker 1: all year. We know what he said, we know what

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Speaker 1: was said about him in preview magazines, but the film

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Speaker 1: doesn't tell us that. But you know what, the film

295
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Speaker 1: didn't tell you that about oj Howard until your eyeballs

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Speaker 1: told you that right there on the field. He did

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Speaker 1: it twice actually in national championship games. One play changes

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Speaker 1: this thing either way. When you got games played in

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Speaker 1: the twenties, which is where the Vegas total tends to believe,

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Speaker 1: this will be played one play either way. Jalil Billingsley,

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Speaker 1: you know last game it was Jamison Williams streaking wide open.

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Speaker 1: Who knows, maybe it's that Oj Howard style tight end

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Speaker 1: down the scene in this kind of game, I would

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Speaker 1: watch Jalil Billingsley the prop bets out there when they're released,

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Speaker 1: I'll be on an over yardage total receiving for Julil Billingsley.

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Speaker 1: There's this other aspect of the game that's going to

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Speaker 1: be talked about a whole lot. It's the mental aspect.

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Speaker 1: It's the psychological aspect. You know, if you watch this show,

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Speaker 1: we don't talk a lot about it because I really

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Speaker 1: think it's severely overblown. Most of the time, there is

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Speaker 1: a psychological edge in sports. It just rarely works the

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Speaker 1: way that people who sit at a desk behind a

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Speaker 1: microphone think it does. And I'll include myself in. That's

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Speaker 1: why I don't waste time talking about it. There is

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Speaker 1: an exception to the rule. More oftentimes it's in the

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Speaker 1: NFL than college, because I believe that more oftentimes the

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Speaker 1: mental edge matters in a rematch situation than it does

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Speaker 1: the first time the game's played. And you rarely get

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Speaker 1: rematches in college. Well we got one here. You get

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Speaker 1: them all the time in the NFL, every division opponent

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Speaker 1: you play at least twice. But here we've got something

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Speaker 1: we rarely get. Now here's where I think it comes

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Speaker 1: into play. The first game, Georgia goes up ten to nothing,

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Speaker 1: as we said, as you saw, and then Bama comes back,

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Speaker 1: So it really didn't bother Alabama all that much. But

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Speaker 1: I do wonder this. I do wonder what happens at

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Speaker 1: the shoes on the other foot a little bit here.

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Speaker 1: I do wonder after fully believing in yourself, if you're Georgia,

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Speaker 1: that you've rectified the problems, we're going to have a

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Speaker 1: different approach, different foot forward. Here, you've got that voice

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Speaker 1: in the back of your mind, you got those voices

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Speaker 1: out there that have told you there's just something about

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Speaker 1: Bama you can't beat. Now you've done well enough to

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Speaker 1: block it out. It's been a month now and you

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Speaker 1: got your mojo back. You beat Michigan, but I've been

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Speaker 1: behind these sidelines before when a lot of that evaporates

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Speaker 1: because of what's happened in the first quarter of a game.

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Speaker 1: Bama didn't have a problem with a ten o deficit.

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Speaker 1: I really wonder how Georgia would handle a ten o

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Speaker 1: deficit here, because Number one, all that doubt tries to

341
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Speaker 1: creep back in, you've got to be extremely mentally tough

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Speaker 1: to block it out. Number two, what have we gotten

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Speaker 1: ourselves into there? If Bama's got an early lead, We've

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Speaker 1: got ourselves at least into the area where we are

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Speaker 1: tempted to try and play ketchup and to play catch

346
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Speaker 1: up you have to throw the ball. Thus, out of

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Speaker 1: a necessity instead of luxury, Stetson Bennett is putting the

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Speaker 1: ball in the air. That does not work out well

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Speaker 1: for them. It has never worked out well for them

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Speaker 1: against Alabama. We've seen it multiple times. Stet's and Bennett.

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Speaker 1: They can win a title with him, they will not

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Speaker 1: win this game if they're having to disproportionately rely on

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Speaker 1: his arm. So there's a lot more nuanced to the

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Speaker 1: question can Georgia win one with Stetson Bennett than just

355
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Speaker 1: a yes or no. It's yes and no and then

356
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Speaker 1: there's a lot of conditions behind it. But I do

357
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Speaker 1: think that mental edge matters way more in this particular

358
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Speaker 1: game than it does ninety nine times out of one hundred.

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Speaker 1: A couple of wild card factors that I'm keeping an

360
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Speaker 1: eye on here. The first one is the Georgia yards

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Speaker 1: per carry number last game. I want to say it

362
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Speaker 1: was three point six yards per carry. At least four

363
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Speaker 1: point zero. At least I would prefer it be four

364
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Speaker 1: and a half or higher, but at least four point

365
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Speaker 1: zero is probably a line in the sand I draw.

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Speaker 1: If you are not clicking along at over four yards

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Speaker 1: per carry. I'm not saying it's impossible to win. You

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Speaker 1: are putting yourself behind the proverbial eight ball. If you're

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Speaker 1: going to try and win that thing. Now, you may

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Speaker 1: dominate special teams, you may have a couple of defensive

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Speaker 1: scores that we could never see coming. But if this

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Speaker 1: game's just played straight up and teams as a relative wash,

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Speaker 1: and neither defensive unit puts points on the board and

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Speaker 1: you're not doing it better than three point eight three

375
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Speaker 1: point nine yards, Georgia is probably going to lose. The

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Speaker 1: other thing I would look at, and it kind of

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00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:16,040
Speaker 1: correlates with that, how many third and five plus situations

378
00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:20,600
Speaker 1: does Georgia face offensively, partly because that means we're going

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Speaker 1: to find out on third down how often they have

380
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Speaker 1: to rely on Stets and Benet throwing the ball. Secondly,

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Speaker 1: I wonder how much more aggressive they may be on

382
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Speaker 1: fourth down in this game. You know, they made a

383
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Speaker 1: decision that a lot of people disagreed with down in

384
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Speaker 1: the red zone. I think it was at the very

385
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,439
Speaker 1: least it was plus territory in the last game, and

386
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Speaker 1: it didn't work out for them. I'd be interested in

387
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Speaker 1: that because I don't think they've wavered a whole lot

388
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Speaker 1: in their thinking, just analytically in their thinking in those scenarios.

389
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,919
Speaker 1: How about Alabama, I'll give you another factor in this

390
00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:54,680
Speaker 1: game that I think could be huge. They're defenders, they're

391
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Speaker 1: secondary guys specifically at corner. Have not played the ball

392
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Speaker 1: in the air. Well, they just haven't, and they didn't

393
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Speaker 1: against Georgia. They won in spite of it. Almost In fact,

394
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Speaker 1: there were a couple of times where I saw it

395
00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:08,840
Speaker 1: feels like they had five hundred flags thrown on them

396
00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:10,640
Speaker 1: for PI. But there were a couple of times where

397
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Speaker 1: you almost watch it and you say, well, you know what, Yeah,

398
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,600
Speaker 1: I gave up fifteen yards, probably better than the alternative,

399
00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:18,600
Speaker 1: Like you're almost resigning yourself to Oh, they weren't going

400
00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:19,919
Speaker 1: to play the ball in the air, they weren't going

401
00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:22,159
Speaker 1: to defend it properly. At least they didn't give up

402
00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:24,880
Speaker 1: a touchdown and it ended up paying off for him. Look,

403
00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:28,040
Speaker 1: if I'm Georgia, there are ways to attack Alabama through

404
00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:30,960
Speaker 1: the air. There are ways for Stetson Bennett to try

405
00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:34,040
Speaker 1: and attack Alabama that are very high reward and I

406
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:38,399
Speaker 1: would say marginal risk at best, and that is putting

407
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:40,840
Speaker 1: some air under the ball and just throwing it up

408
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:44,480
Speaker 1: to George Pickens and throwing it up to Darnell Washington.

409
00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,800
Speaker 1: They scored a touchdown doing that with Washington down near

410
00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,480
Speaker 1: the goal line last game. I'd do it half a

411
00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:52,359
Speaker 1: dozen times. Jermaine Burton can do this as well. I

412
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:56,920
Speaker 1: would just see what's there. That is backyard sandlot, pick

413
00:19:56,960 --> 00:20:00,439
Speaker 1: up football, that's eight on eight play calling. Do it,

414
00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 1: because listen, if they make it that basic, there's no

415
00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:06,480
Speaker 1: reason for you to make it any more complex than that.

416
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,639
Speaker 1: So with all that said, let's dive into what the

417
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:12,720
Speaker 1: model thinks. So last time we leaned a little bit Georgia.

418
00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:16,000
Speaker 1: We adjusted. Of course, not only have we taken the

419
00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 1: SEC Championship game into account, but we've also baked the

420
00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 1: semi finals into account. We have upgraded Alabama as a

421
00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:28,159
Speaker 1: team fairly significantly. There is the possibility that Alabama is

422
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:30,200
Speaker 1: clemsoning right now. That used to be a bad thing,

423
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Speaker 1: now it's a good thing. There is the possibility that

424
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:34,960
Speaker 1: they are in ascension mode very late in the year

425
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,320
Speaker 1: and they're just peaking at the right time. If that's

426
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 1: the case, our model is still under selling Alabama. Having

427
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,560
Speaker 1: said that, I think we've adjusted for where they are

428
00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,159
Speaker 1: right now fairly effectively. We've got the game at a

429
00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 1: pick them. The number in Vegas is anywhere from two

430
00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:50,560
Speaker 1: and a half to three right now. Caesars as of

431
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:52,879
Speaker 1: today has it at Georgia minus two and a half.

432
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:55,879
Speaker 1: We've got it at a pick them. Went back and

433
00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:58,000
Speaker 1: forth on this a few times this week. You remember,

434
00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:01,600
Speaker 1: immediately after the SEC CHAMPI game, I set right here

435
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 1: and I held up that sign. I'm sorry, Nick Saban,

436
00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 1: I won't doubt you again. Merry Christmas. I think it said.

437
00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 1: I'm having to weigh that against me thinking that, yeah,

438
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 1: it's hard to win a rematch. I think that may

439
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,320
Speaker 1: be a little overblown, but no, it's not the easiest

440
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:17,120
Speaker 1: thing in the world. I think there was some mental

441
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:20,480
Speaker 1: edges Alabama had in the first game that maybe not

442
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,439
Speaker 1: as sharp this game. They may still be there. You

443
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:25,920
Speaker 1: got Will Anderson on your sideline, you got Bryce Young

444
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,520
Speaker 1: on your sideline, and you got Nick Saban on your sideline.

445
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,200
Speaker 1: And you know what, I can find several edges for Georgia.

446
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:33,639
Speaker 1: But when it came down to it, I could not

447
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:36,760
Speaker 1: shake that. I could not shake that. We're going to

448
00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,880
Speaker 1: have a neutral sight game featuring teams I've already seen

449
00:21:39,920 --> 00:21:42,280
Speaker 1: this year and I watched the Crimson team win by

450
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 1: what three possessions? But that Crimson team still has the

451
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 1: best quarterback, still has the best head coach, and still

452
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:52,399
Speaker 1: has the best overall player on its sideline. That sounds

453
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 1: like a basketball strategy. It's a little more complex than

454
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:57,679
Speaker 1: that in football. Look, if I think a game is

455
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:01,080
Speaker 1: going to be close, those things matter. Those things really matter.

456
00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,119
Speaker 1: And so I'm going to roll with Alabama to cover,

457
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,240
Speaker 1: and I'm going to roll with Alabama to win. That

458
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 1: is another national championship for Nick Saban. That would be what.

459
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:13,879
Speaker 1: He's in his ninth game overall. This would be his

460
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 1: seventh at Alabama, his eighth title overall. Insanity. So if

461
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:23,919
Speaker 1: Alabama wins, then it's just more history. If that is

462
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:27,160
Speaker 1: not to happen, and if Georgia does win this game,

463
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,560
Speaker 1: you're talking about the Braves winning a World Series and

464
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 1: Georgia winning a national championship within a few months span.

465
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:36,959
Speaker 1: I don't know that I could go back home. They

466
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:38,560
Speaker 1: may just shut the state down for a little while.

467
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,119
Speaker 1: I don't know how long it would be before you know,

468
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:43,159
Speaker 1: the thoroughfares opened up and I could get back in

469
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:46,119
Speaker 1: my home state. That would be a very very extended party,

470
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,879
Speaker 1: prolonged in nature. And you will think about all the

471
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,479
Speaker 1: things that will have been knocked down, like five Berlin

472
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,400
Speaker 1: Walls fall down, the Kirby not being able to beat

473
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,199
Speaker 1: Saban Berlin Wall, the Georgia not being able to win

474
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:01,119
Speaker 1: a title, just the Georgia over all Obama thing in general.

475
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 1: And then there's already a significant portion of the Georgia

476
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 1: sports curse, Berlin Wall that's broken down. The Falcons they

477
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:12,399
Speaker 1: kind of strengthened it a few years ago. The Brave

478
00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 1: is not part of it. Down Georgia could just dynamite

479
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:18,399
Speaker 1: the whole thing now. Either way, we're gonna see history.

480
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,160
Speaker 1: But I will wrap it with this. Sounds kind of ominous,

481
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 1: it's not. I genuinely feel this way. This is a

482
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 1: must win game for Georgia. I believe it with every

483
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 1: fiber in my being. Alabama is as vulnerable this year

484
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 1: as you have seen them. Alabama is as young versus

485
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 1: one of the most experienced Georgia teams. You will see

486
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,119
Speaker 1: they had the best path they will have had this

487
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 1: year being Georgia all year long. This is an ideal situation.

488
00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:46,359
Speaker 1: Alabama's offensive line is hobbled, Georgia's strengthens their defensive front.

489
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 1: They are healthier in the ground game. It's all there.

490
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 1: It's all there. If you cannot get this done in

491
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:57,160
Speaker 1: this spot, I'm not gonna say you never can. That's

492
00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:00,639
Speaker 1: clipbait stuff. I'm gonna tell you you will have missed

493
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:04,199
Speaker 1: the most golden opportunity in the Kirby Smart tenure if

494
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 1: they can't get it done. So I guess all this

495
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 1: left form do is get it done. But that's the preview.

496
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:11,600
Speaker 1: We will look forward to seeing all you guys in

497
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:17,119
Speaker 1: Indianapolis this Monday night. Uh. I'm looking outside right now.

498
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:21,159
Speaker 1: It looks disgusting. It looks disrespectful outside. It is a

499
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 1: shame that we are doing the show as early as

500
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 1: we are. We're recording the show right now. I don't

501
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:29,439
Speaker 1: even think Academy Sports and Outdoors was open this morning

502
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 1: when we went out. So I can't get any cool

503
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:34,640
Speaker 1: looking new Toboggan, can't get a sled. I assume they

504
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 1: sell sleds here. I'll put in a special order if

505
00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 1: they don't. But look, some of you out there living

506
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 1: cold weather climates, so you're used to this stuff. Your

507
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,200
Speaker 1: city doesn't shut down when a little bit of wintry

508
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 1: precipitation falls. But you've got to have the cold weather

509
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 1: gear too, and I would encourage you buy it. Stimulate

510
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 1: that economy, but do it at Academy Sports and Outdoors

511
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 1: at Academy dot Com. I think Academy dot Com will

512
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,399
Speaker 1: be the move for me today because there could be

513
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 1: a lot of impact and going on. When I'm just

514
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:03,719
Speaker 1: kind of killing time at the apartment, We're not going

515
00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 1: to be able to go anywhere. Eventually I'll get out,

516
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 1: and I want to be able to get out and

517
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,160
Speaker 1: not freeze to death and to do that. Academy Sports

518
00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 1: and Outdoors has everything I need, has everything the show needs.

519
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:16,359
Speaker 1: In fact, that's why you can watch the show free

520
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 1: of charge. I was talking to, uh, let's just say,

521
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:22,160
Speaker 1: someone in the business the other day and they were

522
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: bemoaning the fact that they have to work behind a paywall.

523
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,679
Speaker 1: A paywall means you cannot access their content until you

524
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 1: pay for it, and I said, I wasn't going to

525
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:34,119
Speaker 1: make fun of them. I'm very we're very blessed that

526
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,639
Speaker 1: we don't have to do that here because of partners.

527
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 1: A partner singular, not even plural, like Academy Sports and Outdoors.

528
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 1: That's kind of where the rubber meets the road here.

529
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 1: Our audience does an insanely good job of patronizing our partner.

530
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:50,119
Speaker 1: But if you're new to the show, the reason I

531
00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 1: stressed this so much is to let you know, I

532
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 1: know how mad you get. Like, think about how mad

533
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 1: you get when you click on an article or a

534
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,400
Speaker 1: video and then it says five ninety nine to finish.

535
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 1: You don't see that around here, do you. It's because

536
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 1: of Academy Sports and Outdoors. So they help us, they

537
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,360
Speaker 1: help you. You need stuff anyway, so go to Academy

538
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 1: Sports and Outdoors for it. And if you don't have

539
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 1: one in your neighborhood, academy dot com boom, that's your

540
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:14,879
Speaker 1: hookup's oar hookup, it's your hookup. It's everyone's hook up.

541
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:20,040
Speaker 1: How about contenders? Not this year we know there are

542
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,920
Speaker 1: only two contenders left for the national championship, but contenders

543
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,679
Speaker 1: in the future, twenty twenty two and beyond. What do

544
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 1: we think about these contenders? Well, I was asking the

545
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 1: other day. It was very brief then I think the

546
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:33,400
Speaker 1: tweet got deleted so you can't even see the evidence.

547
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,199
Speaker 1: But we were talking about contenders and which teams you

548
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 1: believe in in the future, and we got eight of them.

549
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:40,879
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go through the list really quick, and I

550
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 1: just want you to think in your mind, like, what

551
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,160
Speaker 1: are the odds, scale of one to ten that these

552
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:48,880
Speaker 1: teams play for a national championship. Let's not even say

553
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,919
Speaker 1: when one, Let's just say play for one over the

554
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 1: next three years, scale of one to ten, What do

555
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 1: you think Texas A and M is the obvious first choice.

556
00:26:57,560 --> 00:26:59,879
Speaker 1: A and M is strengthening their grip on the No.

557
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 1: One class in the country right now. I think the

558
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 1: odds are fairly good. I think the odds are eight

559
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 1: seven or eight. Over the next three years, they play

560
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 1: for a national championship. Now we all know who they

561
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,440
Speaker 1: have to go through to do it, but maybe they don't.

562
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 1: Maybe the SEC West to get so strong that them

563
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 1: and Alabama are able to make the playoff in any

564
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 1: given year. I think A and M is gonna get there.

565
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 1: Remember we had jimbo on on National signing Day. He

566
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 1: did not hold back, He did not mince words. Say

567
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 1: Connor Wigman the quarterback. They scouted him as the best

568
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 1: in the country. They did not go after quinn Ewers

569
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:37,080
Speaker 1: in large part because of that. They've got a ton

570
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 1: of great perimeter skill, a line of scrimmage. I was

571
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:43,360
Speaker 1: gonna say, oh, line, but line of scrimmage either way

572
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 1: will not be an issue for them for the foreseeable future.

573
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:49,199
Speaker 1: They'll have the quality top line starters, they'll have the

574
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:52,200
Speaker 1: quality depth, but they're just gonna have more team speed.

575
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 1: They're gonna be able to do more. I asked him

576
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 1: on the signing day show, is there stuff that you've

577
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 1: wanted to do offensively that you haven't been able to

578
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:02,920
Speaker 1: do because of limited personnel? He say, yeah, pretty much. Yeah,

579
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:05,360
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go a seven and a half. Let's

580
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:06,919
Speaker 1: go seven and a half for Texas A and M

581
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:09,400
Speaker 1: chances on a scale of one to ten that they

582
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 1: make a title game within the next three years. USC

583
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 1: was the next school that I got asked about. I'm

584
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:18,440
Speaker 1: only at like a four here, you know what, I'm

585
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 1: gonna go a three. Let's go lower a three. It's

586
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 1: not that I don't think Lincoln Riley will have success

587
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:29,360
Speaker 1: in LA I certainly do. Let's just pump the brakes

588
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 1: a second. And remember, Lincoln Riley had insane success at Oklahoma.

589
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,160
Speaker 1: They didn't play for a title at Oklahoma. So he's

590
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 1: gonna have to do more over the next three years

591
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 1: at USC than he did at Oklahoma. And you know,

592
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 1: let's just call it like it is. He's in a

593
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 1: conference that does him no favors, so there's a lot

594
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 1: to overcome here. Also, their roster, you may think to yourself,

595
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 1: is just loaded and the talent's there and someone's just

596
00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 1: got to put the keys in the ignition and crank

597
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 1: it up. That's not the case at USC. USC's roster

598
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 1: is not what you think it would be. It will be.

599
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 1: They'll get the talent there, but It's not an overnight thing,

600
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 1: so certainly I don't expect that from them next year,

601
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 1: the year after that would still be pushing it. I'll

602
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 1: tell you what I do love is I do love

603
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 1: the quarterback situation. I love Jackson Dart being there. And look,

604
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 1: if it's not Jackson Dart, that means someone like Caleb

605
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 1: Williams has decided to go out there, and so it's

606
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 1: even better. So the quarterback situation, notwithstanding, still think the

607
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 1: rest of that roster needs some work. I'm gonna go

608
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 1: three on a scale of one to ten. Florida is

609
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 1: one of the biggest wild cards on this entire sheet.

610
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 1: It could be that they just hit a grand Slam

611
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 1: and no one knows it. With Billy Napier, as I

612
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 1: said on the last show we did the other night,

613
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 1: the talk of the sec behind the scenes has been

614
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 1: Billy Napier and the staff he's putting together. There are

615
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 1: a lot of doubters who would just tell you openly,

616
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 1: I don't doubt him anymore because they didn't doubt his

617
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 1: on field acumen, they didn't doubt his game day abilities,

618
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 1: they don't doubt him recruiting, and he is a very,

619
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 1: very underrated evaluator too. Like a lot of people talk

620
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 1: about this in the scouting world, it's just not plastered

621
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: all over every network's game day show. Billy Napier checks

622
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 1: a lot of those boxes. What people didn't know is

623
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 1: is he going to be able to attract a staff. Answer, Yes,

624
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 1: he attracted a staff. He is in the process of

625
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 1: attracting a staff. And I'll tell you what else. That's

626
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 1: just to kick things off year over year now, and

627
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 1: this always happens when a new coach gets in town.

628
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 1: You don't ever hire a staff and then they just

629
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 1: all stay together the first five years. That's rarely the

630
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 1: way it works. So what billiy Napier's done, He's already

631
00:30:31,400 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 1: got a good staff in place. But this time next year,

632
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 1: my guess is he'll have even more interest from guys

633
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:41,840
Speaker 1: around the country. They're also building a really good army

634
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 1: of off field support staffers, some of whom, in fact,

635
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 1: most of them you don't know the names of. But

636
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 1: now they got to put the roster together. Now they

637
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 1: got to implement the culture, and I think there is

638
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 1: some reverse that has to be done before they put

639
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 1: it back and drive down there. That's okay, that's fine.

640
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 1: They're making a move for a reason. I'm gonna say

641
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 1: a I'm going to say a four on a scale

642
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 1: of one to ten. They're playing for a title within

643
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 1: the next three years. Three and a half or a four.

644
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 1: I believe in Billy Napier. Please don't mistate me. They

645
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 1: play in a very tough conference, so it makes it

646
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 1: a little more difficult. There's a different kind of path

647
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 1: for them to get to a title game. Miami is

648
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 1: a three for me, But Miami is also a big wildcard.

649
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 1: These two Florida teams huge wildcards because here's what could happen.

650
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 1: What could happen is Mario Christoval could just go completely

651
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 1: off the rails in a good way in recruiting and

652
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 1: they could have a flood of talent come in there,

653
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:36,960
Speaker 1: the likes of which you never could have expected, even

654
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 1: though you know how good a recruiter he is. And

655
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 1: so in two years they could have overturned the entire roster.

656
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 1: They could be. They could be a team that is

657
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 1: looked at from a roster standpoint as an even matchup

658
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 1: with anybody in their conference. In fact, I'll go a

659
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 1: step further, I think they will be that. Like I

660
00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 1: think when Miami is playing Clemson or North Carolina or

661
00:31:57,160 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 1: anyone else in twenty twenty four, twenty three, twenty four.

662
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 1: I think they'll roster wise be viewed as comparable or equal,

663
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 1: maybe even better. Then it comes down to execution. Those

664
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 1: are the unknowns, like those are the things that we

665
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 1: did not see Mario christaball Oregon teams do. We never

666
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,760
Speaker 1: saw him achieve that kind of level, a playoff level.

667
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 1: But we also don't know if Mario Christobal has maximized

668
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 1: his ability as a coach. We don't know that we

669
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 1: have seen his version of a program fully implemented. We

670
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 1: don't know that we think we knew it because Oregon

671
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 1: was really good, we don't know that for sure. I'm

672
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 1: gonna go with a three with Miami, but that number

673
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 1: could change very quickly because you tend to think it's

674
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:41,320
Speaker 1: going to be like a one or a two. Three

675
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:43,920
Speaker 1: is high thirty percent chance over the next three years.

676
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 1: It's because what they could do in the world of

677
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 1: talent acquisition lsu I'm gonna put at a five, five

678
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 1: or six. I would be in the five to six range.

679
00:32:53,920 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 1: You know, I believe in Brian Kelly. You know, I

680
00:32:56,320 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 1: believe that a lot of the foolishness off the field,

681
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 1: a lot of the the LOL type headlines. They will

682
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 1: be a distant memory, quite frankly by the time spring

683
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 1: practice rolls around, but they will be a distant memory.

684
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 1: He is a proven coach. There's no guess work here.

685
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 1: He'll get the staff put together. He'll learn the right

686
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 1: language down there, figuratively and literally. They will get things right.

687
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 1: They will have a rock solid roster, they'll have a

688
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 1: rock solid culture. He will be a culture fit. They're

689
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 1: going to be a force to be reckoned with. I'm

690
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 1: just I'm thinking to myself, how are we going to

691
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 1: shake things out in the SEC West? Because I can't

692
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 1: be believing in Alabama A and M and LSU. There

693
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 1: just aren't enough wins to go around. We're not talking

694
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 1: about winning nine games and going to the Citrus Bowl.

695
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 1: We're talking about winning a title. And so with that

696
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 1: in mind, it's kind of the same deal with Florida,

697
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:47,240
Speaker 1: just on the other side of the division. There is

698
00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 1: so much that has to happen in the sort of

699
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 1: whack a mole path that you have just to get

700
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 1: out of the SEC West. Then it keeps the number lower.

701
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 1: If this were an ACC team, I'd have it at

702
00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 1: like a seven or an eight that they're going to

703
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 1: play for a title within three years. How much I

704
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:03,520
Speaker 1: believe in Brian Kelly. What about Tennessee. Tennessee is a

705
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 1: two for me, But Tennessee bears watching because there's this

706
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:12,400
Speaker 1: quiet confidence around Knoxville that they nailed their head coaching higher.

707
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 1: There is also a firm belief amongst the high school

708
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,800
Speaker 1: coaches around the Southeast that they nailed their coaching higher.

709
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:22,399
Speaker 1: I think if that's true, you're going to see them

710
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 1: really leverage the portal hard because this is going to

711
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 1: be a destination for wayward offensive talent. By wayward, I

712
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:31,040
Speaker 1: don't mean a random two star out there and no

713
00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:34,320
Speaker 1: one else wants. I mean guys who have some juice

714
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 1: to them, that committed elsewhere on an initial signing day.

715
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:39,880
Speaker 1: But they're looking around and they're saying, and Josh Hypel

716
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:41,399
Speaker 1: offense looks like it fits me a whole lot more

717
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:44,440
Speaker 1: than wherever I am right now. This is a dream

718
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,960
Speaker 1: offense for a quarterback or or wide receiver to be

719
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:52,399
Speaker 1: playing in. Defensively, obviously, we just watched the Music City

720
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 1: Bowl where they had about two quarters two and a

721
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 1: half quarters worth of gas in the tank. There is

722
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 1: a ways to go. They didn't inherit any kind of

723
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 1: perfect roster situation, buy a new stretch. They made a

724
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:04,080
Speaker 1: lot out of a little this year. It's always a

725
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 1: good sign in year one, so there's no doubt. There's

726
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:10,239
Speaker 1: no doubt remaining in Knoxville. Everyone's convinced they nailed higher,

727
00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 1: they got the right guy. I'm gonna go with a two.

728
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 1: No one's going to look forward to playing them at

729
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 1: the very least. North Carolina is one that I think

730
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 1: if you took a read of the room, you would

731
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 1: have wild fluctuation. I think someone would say zero, there's

732
00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:29,360
Speaker 1: no shot they're going to play for a title. I

733
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:31,320
Speaker 1: think someone else would say, I'm gonna give it like

734
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 1: a four or a five. I just think maybe the

735
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:36,800
Speaker 1: media preview, magazine Culture was one year ahead of schedule

736
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 1: with them. I'm gonna be down at a two or

737
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 1: a three, two and a half, three somewhere around there.

738
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 1: I do believe that this is a prime candidate to

739
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:50,960
Speaker 1: flash a year after you expected them to, because no

740
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 1: one will expect that from North Carolina this year. But

741
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:57,000
Speaker 1: see what they've done is even though you may lose

742
00:35:57,000 --> 00:36:00,279
Speaker 1: a quarterback, you have the cumulative effect of now having

743
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 1: stacked another great recruiting class on top of what you

744
00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:06,640
Speaker 1: already have there. You never know how that plays out.

745
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 1: First off, you never know what could happen out of

746
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:11,440
Speaker 1: the transfer portal at the quarterback spot. Just bookmark that.

747
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:15,840
Speaker 1: But also the overall cumulative level of play on that

748
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 1: team keeps getting better and better. Now you don't notice

749
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:21,959
Speaker 1: it because we don't talk about tight end or right

750
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 1: guard a lot, but it is happening, and so in

751
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 1: a state of flux elsewhere in that conference, you never know.

752
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:32,359
Speaker 1: All of a sudden, you turn on that TV and

753
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:34,319
Speaker 1: it's kind of like Notre Dame this year, Like no

754
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:36,320
Speaker 1: one was talking about Notre Dame. They just kept winning

755
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 1: games and they got put out of it late, but

756
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:40,319
Speaker 1: they kept winning games. North Carolina could be that with

757
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 1: a little more flash. I'm still going to go two

758
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 1: or three on a scale of one to ten. This

759
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 1: is not a program that's all of a sudden out

760
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:49,319
Speaker 1: of the spotlight just because they may be disappointed you

761
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:51,799
Speaker 1: because you predicted them to do a lot this year.

762
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:55,280
Speaker 1: Last team is Penn State. This is not just because

763
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:57,719
Speaker 1: producer Jesse threw them in here. I do want to

764
00:36:57,719 --> 00:36:59,880
Speaker 1: talk about Penn State. Penn State is kind of like

765
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:04,840
Speaker 1: with Carolina in a sense that they did not overachieve.

766
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 1: In fact, most people would say they underachieved. I'm not

767
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 1: so sure they underachieved. Well, okay, they underachieved last year,

768
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,760
Speaker 1: but think about what the disaster scenario was. The disaster

769
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,439
Speaker 1: was we find out in twenty twenty one that twenty

770
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:18,560
Speaker 1: twenty was the real James Franklin. Well, at the very

771
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 1: least those fears were eased. But you see if you're

772
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 1: watching on YouTube, how they ended the season. Nothing to

773
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 1: write home about. They've got the quarterback in the house now,

774
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 1: Drew Aller is in the house. Now he's going to

775
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 1: be a true freshman. I don't know how long it

776
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:33,600
Speaker 1: is till he plays. Sean Clifford's coming back, also drawing

777
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:37,759
Speaker 1: AARP mail, but Shohn Clifford's back. I also think this

778
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:41,080
Speaker 1: is a program that bears watching because it's a program

779
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:44,759
Speaker 1: that one year after some people expected things and they're

780
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:46,719
Speaker 1: out of the spotlight a little bit. That could be

781
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 1: when they finally take the step. That's really quarterback based

782
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 1: for me, because that's the position I've always focused on

783
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:55,239
Speaker 1: with Penn State. So Penn State, I'm going to go

784
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 1: with the two with them right now. They've got a

785
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,399
Speaker 1: couple of powerhouses up there to deal with. But those

786
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 1: are eight programs. Now, there are some I didn't list.

787
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:04,720
Speaker 1: I didn't talk about Oklahoma, I didn't talk about Texas.

788
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:07,359
Speaker 1: This was not an exhaustive list. So if you've got

789
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 1: other programs, put it in the comment section, but also

790
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:13,080
Speaker 1: give me your number, give me the program, and then

791
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:16,239
Speaker 1: scale of one to ten. What are the odds that

792
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 1: they play for a title within the next three years?

793
00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:23,560
Speaker 1: Good show here, Good Show. The Voice surprisingly lasted a

794
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:26,240
Speaker 1: lot more than that Mike did, and that's an upset

795
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 1: because I didn't think the Voice would make it. Thank

796
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 1: you so much for being with us this week. So

797
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 1: we're going to be off to Indianapolis whenever we can

798
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:33,319
Speaker 1: get the dogs led out of the garage, and we

799
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 1: will do our show live from a what is the

800
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 1: nickname for indian Apples. It's not going to a text

801
00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 1: little farm and ask him. So we'll do it from

802
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 1: up there Sunday night. Looking forward to seeing all you guys.

803
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:43,480
Speaker 1: I know a lot of our audience is going to

804
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:44,759
Speaker 1: be up there. Some of you got tickets, some of

805
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 1: you are hoping for tickets. If I come across any

806
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:48,719
Speaker 1: I'll let you know. I do know I have some

807
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 1: Academy gift cards. Don't know if that would be enough

808
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 1: to hitch you in, but hit me up anywhere, so

809
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 1: untwo them. For director Colin, for producer Jesse, I'm Josh Path.

810
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:58,360
Speaker 1: Thanks so much, have a great rest of your evening,

811
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 1: and God bless